October 10, 2025 • 19 mins
Donald Trump has threatened a “massive” increase in tariffs as he signalled a resumption of the US’s costly trade war with China. Stocks on Wall Street and crypto markets tumbled on Friday after the US President said he would cancel his upcoming meeting with President Xi Jinping amid a row over rare earth minerals.
~This episode is sponsored by iTrust Capital~
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00:00 Intro:
00:10 Tariff wars are back
00:50 Trump message to China
02:40 5pm
03:15 Oct. 18
04:20 Government Shutdown odds
05:00 iTrust transactions
05:20 Regulation Stalls
05:55 Charles Hoskinson: Dems crypto proposal
07:00 Banks x stablecoins
08:10 $5-10B of capital halted
09:20 Oct. 21
09:45 Can the bull market keep going?
11:30 The amount of capex being spent today is similar to 1999
14:00 Bitcoin Supercycle
15:45 Gold Boom mirrors BTCs momentum
16:30 Solana ETF delayed
17:30 Kalshi x Solana
19:00 Outro
#Crypto #tariffs #bitcoin
~Tariff Chaos Crashes Crypto Again!🔥Market Update🔥~
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~ Looking for the best tax havens for Crypto? Free Month with iTrust Capital ➜ Use PROMO CODE - PAUL BARRON https://rebrand.ly/PAULBARRON
~This episode is sponsored by iTrust Capital~
iTrustCapital | Get $100 Funding Reward + No Monthly Fees when you sign up using our custom link! ➜ https://bit.ly/iTrustPaul
00:00 Intro:
00:10 Tariff wars are back
00:50 Trump message to China
02:40 5pm
03:15 Oct. 18
04:20 Government Shutdown odds
05:00 iTrust transactions
05:20 Regulation Stalls
05:55 Charles Hoskinson: Dems crypto proposal
07:00 Banks x stablecoins
08:10 $5-10B of capital halted
09:20 Oct. 21
09:45 Can the bull market keep going?
11:30 The amount of capex being spent today is similar to 1999
14:00 Bitcoin Supercycle
15:45 Gold Boom mirrors BTCs momentum
16:30 Solana ETF delayed
17:30 Kalshi x Solana
19:00 Outro
#Crypto #tariffs #bitcoin
~Tariff Chaos Crashes Crypto Again!🔥Market Update🔥~
⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺
Join our community!
Diamond Circle Email (FREE)➜ https://bit.ly/pbnmembership
Private Telegram Group (FREE) ➜ https://t.me/+nISqoMxrok40NTcx
Subscribe on YouTube ✅ https://bit.ly/PBNYoutubeSubscribe
X/Twitter 📱 http://bit.ly/PBNtwitter
Get official PBN merch! ➜ https://merch.paulbarronnetwork.com/
~ The Best Self Custody Wallet ➜ https://tangem.com/en/ Use Code PBN for Additional Discounts!
~ The Best Crypto Exchange ➜ Coinbase, get up to $200 in crypto - coinbase-consumer.sjv.io/BARRON
~ Looking for the best tax havens for Crypto? Free Month with iTrust Capital ➜ Use PROMO CODE - PAUL BARRON https://rebrand.ly/PAULBARRON
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The markets are crashing. This could be one of the
biggest red days ever. We'll break it down for you.
Welcome back into the show. I want to start off
with what we think is going on, and part of
this is this war between the US and China when
it comes to tariffs. This of course is the S
and P five hundred falling seventy points. This is in
reference to President Trump publishing that China is going to
(00:22):
get hit with more tariffs. So something is pissing him
off and he is going head to head, in fact,
so much so that he's going to hold a conference
later today to really go into this. But while that
is happening, two hundred mil liquidated from the cryptocurrency market
in the past fifteen minutes. This could get really bloody.
Guys going into a very bloody weekend where all of
(00:43):
this plays into one thing, and that is the message
that the United States is sending to China. Let me
place some.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
One president posting a lengthy post on social media here,
but in it is threatening unspecified retaliation against the Chinese side.
Is also so seems here to cancel his scheduled meeting
that's coming up with President hijiinping of China. The President
here saying this was a real surprise not only to me,
(01:11):
but to all the leaders of the free world. I
was to meet President she in two weeks at Apec
in South Korea, but now there seems no reason to
do so. The President going on to say that the
Chinese letters about Rare Earth's were especially inappropriate, and that
this was the day that after three thousand years of
bed Limen fighting, there's peace in the Middle East. I
(01:31):
wonder if the timing was coincidental. So the President here
objecting not only to the Chinese move on Rare Earth,
but to the fact that it appears to have stepped
on the news of his apparent peace agreement with Israel
Hamas yesterday. We'll point out, Carl that just if you
look at the tone of this, it's a lengthy and
(01:51):
I think you could characterize this as an angry response
to the Chinese, but it's also a non specific response
to the Chinese. He's saying there seems no reason to
do so with the she meeting, So it seems as
if that meeting is being canceled, but it's not actually
canceling that meeting, and is also threatening a whole host
of retaliations here on areas that the United States has
(02:13):
monopolies on, but not specifying which ones, threatening a massive
increase in tarirists but not specifying which ones. So I
think you can put this in the category of presidential
venting right now.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
All right, well, you call the presidential venting a taco
and that is Trump always chickens out. The point being
is that the negotiations that he's dealing with, these are
all ploys, guys, They're all ploys, and they are playing
into the markets. It creates volatility, It opens up opportunities
for those who are ready to take it, and that's
probably what's going to happen as he starts to air
(02:46):
what this issue is at three to five PM today.
I guarantee he's going to be late, so it'd probably
be after five, but markets are looking for more detail
on how this tariff statement will actually play out. I
anticipate it's just saying him he's not happy with jigiping,
and he's just going to sit there and push it
away in terms of trying to get a deal with China.
(03:07):
And again this is again a problem I think around
negotiation tactics that we've seen with President Trump and his
administration with the Chinese. So this is all playing into it.
You've got a lot other issues happening, and that is
around the potential or I should say the potential opening
of the government because it's still closed. And remember that
No King's Day there's protest planned across the nation. This
(03:29):
is to oppose the Trump administation. That'll happen on October
the eighteenth. There could be some possible alignment here where
the Dems could be kind of coming in and saying, hey,
we're going to kind of wide in on this until
October eighteenth to get in and kind of capitalize on
that news that's going to be hitting with these protests.
(03:50):
And I don't know, this will be interesting if they're
willing to do that the Democrats. I know that right
now it's an impasse between the two. So all of
this I think, even though that has not had as
much of an impact in terms of the government being
closed on the markets, but these moves on tariffs, this
has an impact. I really thought we'd get a little
(04:11):
bit more of a market pump with the news on
what's happening in Gaza in the Middle East, but right
now I think the tariffs on China are the one
that will affect so many companies. If you look at
the government shut down data right now, everybody's pointing at
that after the fifteenth, that looks to be the case.
Once we go beyond that is where it gets a
(04:32):
little bit dicey for a lot of different people here
in the United States. I'm not for this. I think
the key here is they got to set down, try
to figure this out, because this is only going to
make things worth worse economically, and that's the thing that
you cannot do now. The bullish news going into the market,
I think there are some bullish news. One of the
things I'm watching right now I Trust Capital. They hit
(04:54):
fifteen billion in crypto transactions. That shows me that and
of course I Trust is a sponsor of but that
shows me that what we're seeing now is people looking
at long term potential holding so going into a CRYPTOIRA,
those kind of things. That much going into crypto transactions
over this last month pretty impressive as we continue to
(05:15):
see that area grow. The other thing that is happening,
of course, is the Market Structure bill, and of course
talks are now stalling over this leaked Democrat DeFi proposal,
and let's be honest, this is politics in general, but
in reality, I believe this is the banks versus crypto
and that's what it boils down to. The strongest lobbyists
(05:38):
out there have been putting this out there in terms
of trying to derail DeFi and the future of where
crypto is going, because they're trying to get in a
position to be in play in this market and they
currently are not. Let's go to a clip here, This,
of course is Charles Hoskinson from Cardono. He kind of
hits on this very point.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Take a look, and finally the Senate Democrats have decided
to issue their counterproposal, so I'll just kind of read
this off. The plan would grant the Treasury Department power
to create a restricted list of DeFi protocols considered excessively
risky and could force an immediate halt of bipartisan negotiations
on overall crypto market structure instantly dead, and opposes mandatory
(06:19):
know your customer rules for cryptocurrency application front ends, including
non custodial wallet interfaces. In other words, every single wallet
is basically illegal. All your browser.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Wallets would be illegal. Thanks Democrats.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
Developer protections would be removed in every single person building
DeFi applications is now a criminal.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
Congratulations, thanks Senate Democrats. All right, So I mean the
point is, yes, these are the kind of proposals that
I think in many cases they know not what they
do in terms of the Dems. But I think they're
being directed by one clear arm, and that is the
banking community in these lobbyist groups. So just remember major
(06:59):
banks are now collabed bring up plans to joint launch
a stable coin initiative. Timing interesting here of course we
see Bank of America Goldman in there, some of the
US Bank's TD Bank obviously ubs City. Point being guys
is that they have a lot to lose and this
is the only thing that they can do to try
to slow this down. And if we do get clarity
(07:22):
coming fast, they just want to be in a position
to where they can compete. And I think that is
the issue that really boils down. Now Charles has been
busy out there because now he's saying, yep, well, this
will also start to circumvent the issue with Circle and
Tether in terms of monopoly on stable coins in this
(07:42):
consumed break. I don't necessarily think that is going to
be the case. I think we will continue to see
native stable coins on blockchain become and still be the
dominant forces. Now, let me know what you guys think.
Would you allow or would you hold stable coins in
your bank? Just put yes or no down below. I
(08:02):
want to kind of curious on what that would be
for you guys. If you're not subscribed to the channel,
make sure and do that now as well. Let's go
over to a couple other points because I want to
get in on this right here, and this is a
point that you have to pay attention to. Around the
government shutdown, there's a few things that puts the brakes
on ETFs that'll slow down the market. This could also
push the market further into twenty twenty six. We've talked
(08:25):
about that before. A couple of points they hit on
right here. Just look at the all coin ETF approvals
literally going from what we were getting to where we
are now, because we aren't going to be able to
get any until we start to get these regulators back
in office. But the first wave of green lights was
expected mid October until everything stopped, and that of course
is where we are today. Point being right here, Industry
(08:46):
analysts now estimate that once the SEC removes work resumes worked,
between five and ten billion in capital could enter the
market almost immediately on ETF launches. Now, people I'm talking
to are saying that the ETF is or the SEC
is actually still doing a lot of work. So it's
very possible that this could hit the ground running once
that they opened the government back up, so be on
(09:08):
the lookout for that. We could see a lot more
movement out there in terms of action. The other thing
that's happening this month is October twenty First, you've got
the US FED hosting their Payments Innovation Conference. And remember
we've talked about this before. Chair Palell is going to
be hosting this conference around the future of where crypto
and AI is going. And I will grant you there
(09:28):
are going to be every banking lobby lead at this
event and every banking representative that's talking about the future
of crypto. Be ready because there's going to be a
lot that happens coming out of that conference. Now, the
question is is how does this play into the bull market?
Is the top end? I mean people would say the
October sixth day, seventh day was the top If you're
(09:52):
looking at previous cycles. Here's a clip that kind of
goes into that. Take a look quote.
Speaker 4 (09:57):
The combination of continued economic growth, corporate profits, and a
supportive policy backdrop provides a solid foundation for maintaining a
constructive stance heading into the fourth year of this cycle.
Of the seven Bowl markets that extended beyond year three
all saw further gains during the following year.
Speaker 5 (10:16):
I think the big takeaway for people is that it's
very expensive to missible market. You almost never recover if
you sit these types of things out and watch from
the sideline, or you're way under invested, or you spend
the entire time waiting for it to an end, and too
much focus on hedging, not enough focus on capturing that upside.
(10:36):
But I think people need to have that context, that background,
so that they understand just because stocks have been up,
that in and of itself is not a reason to say,
all right, that's as good as it's going to get.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
I'm done now. All right, Now, you've got conservative investors,
and you've got people out there that are willing to
take the risk, because there is a certain amount of
risk appetite that you have to have in this stage
of a market. Lee talked about this the other day
in the sense that he still sees this on a
very aggressive move upward. If you're believing those guys now,
remember a lot of these guys now have skin in
(11:09):
the game. Tom Lee of course with bit Minor, an
Ethereum dat company, a digital asset treasury company. If you
guys don't know where that is, God, do some research
on that because it has a lot of influence over
ethereum in general. And as we see the market start
to flow into this, the real question is where is
the liquidity going to come from? Well, part of that
is going to come in from a lot of Capex
(11:29):
that is starting to flow into businesses. And this could
be another indicator that says, well, wait a minute, if
we start to see this over bought position on Capex,
does that bring us back to these past bear market
indicators going forward? Take a look at this clip.
Speaker 6 (11:47):
Where do you stand on You know, we had a
Pultard or Jones on the broadcast earlier this week and
he made a comment how he thought we could be
in October of nineteen ninety nine, which is actually not
a bad place to be because the market's still I
think had some like forty percent. To go from there,
you just had to know to get off the train
at the right time.
Speaker 7 (12:06):
There's certainly similarities after living through that trying the time that.
I have no idea. I do know that similar to
that timeframe, the amount of cap X that was being
spent was extraordinary and we saw the end result of that,
and the amount of CAPEX today is quite extraordinary as well,
defined as Workle spending half their revenue not cash, FUW
(12:29):
half their revenue on CAPEX and met and Microsoft spending
a third of their revenue. Hopefully it pays off, but
those are big numbers.
Speaker 8 (12:36):
I don't know how you trade what he said. I mean,
so it paltered the dunes.
Speaker 6 (12:40):
I mean I was watching, but I think what you
do is you It's like a Chuck Prince kind of situation.
I know, a dance while the music is still playing.
I know what he's saying, but you got to find
a seat. Though, when it's doped, it's win win.
Speaker 8 (12:52):
He was dead wrong in May and couldn't have been
more wrong, and you pointed that out because he said
we're going to go to New Loath right now. His
thing is, oh, something really bad is coming. But before
something really bad comes. It's going to be unbelievably good
for as long as two years, so possible, it's gonna be. Yeah,
it is, but you're it's either you're covering yet it's
(13:12):
going to go much further and you're also covering any
time it could really collapse and be really bad. So
what do you really what information are you really giving us?
Speaker 1 (13:21):
You can't that's okay, you're right, you can't trade that, guys.
And if you're watching the mainstream, the reason you come
to our channels because we give you analysis on this
media and I believe that they're all wrong. You know,
we're continuing to get these cycle tops called We're continuing
to see this kind of innovation that is happening, whether
it's the AI bubble or not. And if you believe
that it is, then that is a problem going forward.
(13:43):
I personally think AI is still going to be on
an accelerated to zero that's right. I think we're going
to accelerate to zero in terms of cost of where
that goes, and that will play into one of the
companies that could get hurt on this. On the backside
is even if you think about it in video, if
they in fact do continue to improve performance on these chips.
So a lot of things playing into this. Bitcoin is
(14:04):
going to be one of them as well. Super cycle unfolding.
There are a couple of things that you could look
at here. A couple of chart patterns are suggesting a
four hundred and fifty to five hundred. I don't go there.
I don't necessarily believe that's right on target. Now, could
this be over a long period of time. Sure, there
is some volatility that kind of supports that, but other things.
If you look at the breakouts now to a potentially
(14:27):
an all time high around one twenty six, this has
all been done because of the resurgence in US spot
inflows ETF inflows, and I think that's going to continue
to support the mechanism, if for both ethereum and also
for bitcoin. But I think the real critical thing here
is going to be Clarity Act, and we're going to
still see the amount of impact that we're going to
(14:49):
have with the FED cutting rates. I understand that many
people say that's not really going to impact as much.
I disagree. I think you are going to start to
see real movement on liquidity off the sidelines into these
markets when those rates start to see another sub one
point cut, which will probably happen in early twenty twenty six.
(15:09):
It's the same ETF flows through October and November. This
is going to be a durable tailwind. I would agree
with that. And listen, Bitcoin's trading at one seventeen here
as we're recording this right now. A week ago, it
was busting out into another all time high. So is
that an opportunity to trade? That's this nice volatility there,
and ethereum is getting ready to cut under three k.
(15:32):
So are we in a position or under four k?
Are we in a position where this may just open
up another opportunity to buy in? I don't know. Let
me know what you guys think in the comments. If
you are buying this dip as we talk, spot bitcoin
ETF trading volume surpass one billion in the first hour
of trading. That should tell you something. Continued volatility on
(15:52):
the way gold is booming right now mirrors a lot
of what's happening with the bitcoin momentum, and of course
bank are buying in. This is getting crazy out there.
It's only in recent weeks that gold has finally surpassed
to real adjust at all time highs we ever saw
this silver of course cracked fifty retraced off of it.
These are signs that either we are nearing a massive
(16:15):
breakout or a flatlining of this particular market. And if
you look at most people, because it's still very divisive
between the analyst as to what's going to happen, many bulls,
many bears out there in the markets continue to watch
how this plays out. Solana's ETF decision delayed, and this
was set to go any minute now. But the interesting
(16:38):
thing is Solana could actually end up kicking this off
if we actually see the ETF approval once that we
get the government shutdown over with, because what we could
get is a rush into the market. And one of
the reasons you're going to see a rush into the
market is because of this right here, that is these
ridiculously old rates. Canary has come back with shots across
(16:59):
the bow here going at point fifty on their expense
ratio and no cut of staking rewards versus bit wise,
our friend Matt Hogan over there, he's going at points
two oh and that was a big deal, but he's
keeping six percent of the staking rewards. I got to
get Matt on to talk about that I think he
is going to get a little bit more negotiated on
this now that Canary is coming in. This is a
(17:21):
big deal for these two to go neck and neck
to try to win the Solana ETF because this could
be a big catalyst for not only Solana but also
for the market. So be thinking about that. Another catalyst
leading the market right now. Caw she just raised a
five billion dollar valuation. This is being led by Sequoia
and a sixteen Z two of the top v season
(17:43):
in Silicon Valley. Remember this is on the heels of
Polymarket fielding offers for a nine billion dollar evaluation, and
of course the deal that we already saw with Ice
with Polymarket, the owners of the NYC A s E.
So these two are going neck and neck and it
is now becoming a slugfest between Calshi and Polymarket. I
(18:04):
put out a tweet this morning and it was kind
of just a breakdown these are the things that are
are really at stake here. Calshi just went global with
this deal with Salona three hundred billion on the rays,
which is another five billion valuation if you consider that
being the case. Fifty billion annualized volume right now and
so far they're on three x growth post rays and
(18:25):
they're fully regulated. That's the one thing they have over
poly Market. Polymarket's offshore regulartory uncertainty. But yet the US
access is opening up. I think that is the key
here for Shane Copeland over at Polymarket to get this
thing going and two billion in terms of an investment
coming in and a leader in terms of the political prediction.
And remember twenty twenty six, huge political year in the midterms.
(18:49):
Polymarket could come in and win this overall. Let me
know what you guys think down in the comments. If
you're not part of the Diamond Circle, get in right now.
It's a great place to get additional content from me.
I sent out a letter each week that is great
for you guys in terms of understanding where these markets
are going. Follow me on X at Paul Baron. We'll
catch you next time right here on The Paul Baron Show.
The markets are crashing. This could be one of the
biggest red days ever. We'll break it down for you.
Welcome back into the show. I want to start off
with what we think is going on, and part of
this is this war between the US and China when
it comes to tariffs. This of course is the S
and P five hundred falling seventy points. This is in
reference to President Trump publishing that China is going to
(00:22):
get hit with more tariffs. So something is pissing him
off and he is going head to head, in fact,
so much so that he's going to hold a conference
later today to really go into this. But while that
is happening, two hundred mil liquidated from the cryptocurrency market
in the past fifteen minutes. This could get really bloody.
Guys going into a very bloody weekend where all of
(00:43):
this plays into one thing, and that is the message
that the United States is sending to China. Let me
place some.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
One president posting a lengthy post on social media here,
but in it is threatening unspecified retaliation against the Chinese side.
Is also so seems here to cancel his scheduled meeting
that's coming up with President hijiinping of China. The President
here saying this was a real surprise not only to me,
(01:11):
but to all the leaders of the free world. I
was to meet President she in two weeks at Apec
in South Korea, but now there seems no reason to
do so. The President going on to say that the
Chinese letters about Rare Earth's were especially inappropriate, and that
this was the day that after three thousand years of
bed Limen fighting, there's peace in the Middle East. I
(01:31):
wonder if the timing was coincidental. So the President here
objecting not only to the Chinese move on Rare Earth,
but to the fact that it appears to have stepped
on the news of his apparent peace agreement with Israel
Hamas yesterday. We'll point out, Carl that just if you
look at the tone of this, it's a lengthy and
(01:51):
I think you could characterize this as an angry response
to the Chinese, but it's also a non specific response
to the Chinese. He's saying there seems no reason to
do so with the she meeting, So it seems as
if that meeting is being canceled, but it's not actually
canceling that meeting, and is also threatening a whole host
of retaliations here on areas that the United States has
(02:13):
monopolies on, but not specifying which ones, threatening a massive
increase in tarirists but not specifying which ones. So I
think you can put this in the category of presidential
venting right now.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
All right, well, you call the presidential venting a taco
and that is Trump always chickens out. The point being
is that the negotiations that he's dealing with, these are
all ploys, guys, They're all ploys, and they are playing
into the markets. It creates volatility, It opens up opportunities
for those who are ready to take it, and that's
probably what's going to happen as he starts to air
(02:46):
what this issue is at three to five PM today.
I guarantee he's going to be late, so it'd probably
be after five, but markets are looking for more detail
on how this tariff statement will actually play out. I
anticipate it's just saying him he's not happy with jigiping,
and he's just going to sit there and push it
away in terms of trying to get a deal with China.
(03:07):
And again this is again a problem I think around
negotiation tactics that we've seen with President Trump and his
administration with the Chinese. So this is all playing into it.
You've got a lot other issues happening, and that is
around the potential or I should say the potential opening
of the government because it's still closed. And remember that
No King's Day there's protest planned across the nation. This
(03:29):
is to oppose the Trump administation. That'll happen on October
the eighteenth. There could be some possible alignment here where
the Dems could be kind of coming in and saying, hey,
we're going to kind of wide in on this until
October eighteenth to get in and kind of capitalize on
that news that's going to be hitting with these protests.
(03:50):
And I don't know, this will be interesting if they're
willing to do that the Democrats. I know that right
now it's an impasse between the two. So all of
this I think, even though that has not had as
much of an impact in terms of the government being
closed on the markets, but these moves on tariffs, this
has an impact. I really thought we'd get a little
(04:11):
bit more of a market pump with the news on
what's happening in Gaza in the Middle East, but right
now I think the tariffs on China are the one
that will affect so many companies. If you look at
the government shut down data right now, everybody's pointing at
that after the fifteenth, that looks to be the case.
Once we go beyond that is where it gets a
(04:32):
little bit dicey for a lot of different people here
in the United States. I'm not for this. I think
the key here is they got to set down, try
to figure this out, because this is only going to
make things worth worse economically, and that's the thing that
you cannot do now. The bullish news going into the market,
I think there are some bullish news. One of the
things I'm watching right now I Trust Capital. They hit
(04:54):
fifteen billion in crypto transactions. That shows me that and
of course I Trust is a sponsor of but that
shows me that what we're seeing now is people looking
at long term potential holding so going into a CRYPTOIRA,
those kind of things. That much going into crypto transactions
over this last month pretty impressive as we continue to
(05:15):
see that area grow. The other thing that is happening,
of course, is the Market Structure bill, and of course
talks are now stalling over this leaked Democrat DeFi proposal,
and let's be honest, this is politics in general, but
in reality, I believe this is the banks versus crypto
and that's what it boils down to. The strongest lobbyists
(05:38):
out there have been putting this out there in terms
of trying to derail DeFi and the future of where
crypto is going, because they're trying to get in a
position to be in play in this market and they
currently are not. Let's go to a clip here, This,
of course is Charles Hoskinson from Cardono. He kind of
hits on this very point.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Take a look, and finally the Senate Democrats have decided
to issue their counterproposal, so I'll just kind of read
this off. The plan would grant the Treasury Department power
to create a restricted list of DeFi protocols considered excessively
risky and could force an immediate halt of bipartisan negotiations
on overall crypto market structure instantly dead, and opposes mandatory
(06:19):
know your customer rules for cryptocurrency application front ends, including
non custodial wallet interfaces. In other words, every single wallet
is basically illegal. All your browser.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Wallets would be illegal. Thanks Democrats.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
Developer protections would be removed in every single person building
DeFi applications is now a criminal.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
Congratulations, thanks Senate Democrats. All right, So I mean the
point is, yes, these are the kind of proposals that
I think in many cases they know not what they
do in terms of the Dems. But I think they're
being directed by one clear arm, and that is the
banking community in these lobbyist groups. So just remember major
(06:59):
banks are now collabed bring up plans to joint launch
a stable coin initiative. Timing interesting here of course we
see Bank of America Goldman in there, some of the
US Bank's TD Bank obviously ubs City. Point being guys
is that they have a lot to lose and this
is the only thing that they can do to try
to slow this down. And if we do get clarity
(07:22):
coming fast, they just want to be in a position
to where they can compete. And I think that is
the issue that really boils down. Now Charles has been
busy out there because now he's saying, yep, well, this
will also start to circumvent the issue with Circle and
Tether in terms of monopoly on stable coins in this
(07:42):
consumed break. I don't necessarily think that is going to
be the case. I think we will continue to see
native stable coins on blockchain become and still be the
dominant forces. Now, let me know what you guys think.
Would you allow or would you hold stable coins in
your bank? Just put yes or no down below. I
(08:02):
want to kind of curious on what that would be
for you guys. If you're not subscribed to the channel,
make sure and do that now as well. Let's go
over to a couple other points because I want to
get in on this right here, and this is a
point that you have to pay attention to. Around the
government shutdown, there's a few things that puts the brakes
on ETFs that'll slow down the market. This could also
push the market further into twenty twenty six. We've talked
(08:25):
about that before. A couple of points they hit on
right here. Just look at the all coin ETF approvals
literally going from what we were getting to where we
are now, because we aren't going to be able to
get any until we start to get these regulators back
in office. But the first wave of green lights was
expected mid October until everything stopped, and that of course
is where we are today. Point being right here, Industry
(08:46):
analysts now estimate that once the SEC removes work resumes worked,
between five and ten billion in capital could enter the
market almost immediately on ETF launches. Now, people I'm talking
to are saying that the ETF is or the SEC
is actually still doing a lot of work. So it's
very possible that this could hit the ground running once
that they opened the government back up, so be on
(09:08):
the lookout for that. We could see a lot more
movement out there in terms of action. The other thing
that's happening this month is October twenty First, you've got
the US FED hosting their Payments Innovation Conference. And remember
we've talked about this before. Chair Palell is going to
be hosting this conference around the future of where crypto
and AI is going. And I will grant you there
(09:28):
are going to be every banking lobby lead at this
event and every banking representative that's talking about the future
of crypto. Be ready because there's going to be a
lot that happens coming out of that conference. Now, the
question is is how does this play into the bull market?
Is the top end? I mean people would say the
October sixth day, seventh day was the top If you're
(09:52):
looking at previous cycles. Here's a clip that kind of
goes into that. Take a look quote.
Speaker 4 (09:57):
The combination of continued economic growth, corporate profits, and a
supportive policy backdrop provides a solid foundation for maintaining a
constructive stance heading into the fourth year of this cycle.
Of the seven Bowl markets that extended beyond year three
all saw further gains during the following year.
Speaker 5 (10:16):
I think the big takeaway for people is that it's
very expensive to missible market. You almost never recover if
you sit these types of things out and watch from
the sideline, or you're way under invested, or you spend
the entire time waiting for it to an end, and too
much focus on hedging, not enough focus on capturing that upside.
(10:36):
But I think people need to have that context, that background,
so that they understand just because stocks have been up,
that in and of itself is not a reason to say,
all right, that's as good as it's going to get.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
I'm done now. All right, Now, you've got conservative investors,
and you've got people out there that are willing to
take the risk, because there is a certain amount of
risk appetite that you have to have in this stage
of a market. Lee talked about this the other day
in the sense that he still sees this on a
very aggressive move upward. If you're believing those guys now,
remember a lot of these guys now have skin in
(11:09):
the game. Tom Lee of course with bit Minor, an
Ethereum dat company, a digital asset treasury company. If you
guys don't know where that is, God, do some research
on that because it has a lot of influence over
ethereum in general. And as we see the market start
to flow into this, the real question is where is
the liquidity going to come from? Well, part of that
is going to come in from a lot of Capex
(11:29):
that is starting to flow into businesses. And this could
be another indicator that says, well, wait a minute, if
we start to see this over bought position on Capex,
does that bring us back to these past bear market
indicators going forward? Take a look at this clip.
Speaker 6 (11:47):
Where do you stand on You know, we had a
Pultard or Jones on the broadcast earlier this week and
he made a comment how he thought we could be
in October of nineteen ninety nine, which is actually not
a bad place to be because the market's still I
think had some like forty percent. To go from there,
you just had to know to get off the train
at the right time.
Speaker 7 (12:06):
There's certainly similarities after living through that trying the time that.
I have no idea. I do know that similar to
that timeframe, the amount of cap X that was being
spent was extraordinary and we saw the end result of that,
and the amount of CAPEX today is quite extraordinary as well,
defined as Workle spending half their revenue not cash, FUW
(12:29):
half their revenue on CAPEX and met and Microsoft spending
a third of their revenue. Hopefully it pays off, but
those are big numbers.
Speaker 8 (12:36):
I don't know how you trade what he said. I mean,
so it paltered the dunes.
Speaker 6 (12:40):
I mean I was watching, but I think what you
do is you It's like a Chuck Prince kind of situation.
I know, a dance while the music is still playing.
I know what he's saying, but you got to find
a seat. Though, when it's doped, it's win win.
Speaker 8 (12:52):
He was dead wrong in May and couldn't have been
more wrong, and you pointed that out because he said
we're going to go to New Loath right now. His
thing is, oh, something really bad is coming. But before
something really bad comes. It's going to be unbelievably good
for as long as two years, so possible, it's gonna be. Yeah,
it is, but you're it's either you're covering yet it's
(13:12):
going to go much further and you're also covering any
time it could really collapse and be really bad. So
what do you really what information are you really giving us?
Speaker 1 (13:21):
You can't that's okay, you're right, you can't trade that, guys.
And if you're watching the mainstream, the reason you come
to our channels because we give you analysis on this
media and I believe that they're all wrong. You know,
we're continuing to get these cycle tops called We're continuing
to see this kind of innovation that is happening, whether
it's the AI bubble or not. And if you believe
that it is, then that is a problem going forward.
(13:43):
I personally think AI is still going to be on
an accelerated to zero that's right. I think we're going
to accelerate to zero in terms of cost of where
that goes, and that will play into one of the
companies that could get hurt on this. On the backside
is even if you think about it in video, if
they in fact do continue to improve performance on these chips.
So a lot of things playing into this. Bitcoin is
(14:04):
going to be one of them as well. Super cycle unfolding.
There are a couple of things that you could look
at here. A couple of chart patterns are suggesting a
four hundred and fifty to five hundred. I don't go there.
I don't necessarily believe that's right on target. Now, could
this be over a long period of time. Sure, there
is some volatility that kind of supports that, but other things.
If you look at the breakouts now to a potentially
(14:27):
an all time high around one twenty six, this has
all been done because of the resurgence in US spot
inflows ETF inflows, and I think that's going to continue
to support the mechanism, if for both ethereum and also
for bitcoin. But I think the real critical thing here
is going to be Clarity Act, and we're going to
still see the amount of impact that we're going to
(14:49):
have with the FED cutting rates. I understand that many
people say that's not really going to impact as much.
I disagree. I think you are going to start to
see real movement on liquidity off the sidelines into these
markets when those rates start to see another sub one
point cut, which will probably happen in early twenty twenty six.
(15:09):
It's the same ETF flows through October and November. This
is going to be a durable tailwind. I would agree
with that. And listen, Bitcoin's trading at one seventeen here
as we're recording this right now. A week ago, it
was busting out into another all time high. So is
that an opportunity to trade? That's this nice volatility there,
and ethereum is getting ready to cut under three k.
(15:32):
So are we in a position or under four k?
Are we in a position where this may just open
up another opportunity to buy in? I don't know. Let
me know what you guys think in the comments. If
you are buying this dip as we talk, spot bitcoin
ETF trading volume surpass one billion in the first hour
of trading. That should tell you something. Continued volatility on
(15:52):
the way gold is booming right now mirrors a lot
of what's happening with the bitcoin momentum, and of course
bank are buying in. This is getting crazy out there.
It's only in recent weeks that gold has finally surpassed
to real adjust at all time highs we ever saw
this silver of course cracked fifty retraced off of it.
These are signs that either we are nearing a massive
(16:15):
breakout or a flatlining of this particular market. And if
you look at most people, because it's still very divisive
between the analyst as to what's going to happen, many bulls,
many bears out there in the markets continue to watch
how this plays out. Solana's ETF decision delayed, and this
was set to go any minute now. But the interesting
(16:38):
thing is Solana could actually end up kicking this off
if we actually see the ETF approval once that we
get the government shutdown over with, because what we could
get is a rush into the market. And one of
the reasons you're going to see a rush into the
market is because of this right here, that is these
ridiculously old rates. Canary has come back with shots across
(16:59):
the bow here going at point fifty on their expense
ratio and no cut of staking rewards versus bit wise,
our friend Matt Hogan over there, he's going at points
two oh and that was a big deal, but he's
keeping six percent of the staking rewards. I got to
get Matt on to talk about that I think he
is going to get a little bit more negotiated on
this now that Canary is coming in. This is a
(17:21):
big deal for these two to go neck and neck
to try to win the Solana ETF because this could
be a big catalyst for not only Solana but also
for the market. So be thinking about that. Another catalyst
leading the market right now. Caw she just raised a
five billion dollar valuation. This is being led by Sequoia
and a sixteen Z two of the top v season
(17:43):
in Silicon Valley. Remember this is on the heels of
Polymarket fielding offers for a nine billion dollar evaluation, and
of course the deal that we already saw with Ice
with Polymarket, the owners of the NYC A s E.
So these two are going neck and neck and it
is now becoming a slugfest between Calshi and Polymarket. I
(18:04):
put out a tweet this morning and it was kind
of just a breakdown these are the things that are
are really at stake here. Calshi just went global with
this deal with Salona three hundred billion on the rays,
which is another five billion valuation if you consider that
being the case. Fifty billion annualized volume right now and
so far they're on three x growth post rays and
(18:25):
they're fully regulated. That's the one thing they have over
poly Market. Polymarket's offshore regulartory uncertainty. But yet the US
access is opening up. I think that is the key
here for Shane Copeland over at Polymarket to get this
thing going and two billion in terms of an investment
coming in and a leader in terms of the political prediction.
And remember twenty twenty six, huge political year in the midterms.
(18:49):
Polymarket could come in and win this overall. Let me
know what you guys think down in the comments. If
you're not part of the Diamond Circle, get in right now.
It's a great place to get additional content from me.
I sent out a letter each week that is great
for you guys in terms of understanding where these markets
are going. Follow me on X at Paul Baron. We'll
catch you next time right here on The Paul Baron Show.
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