Trump Pump vs Dump?📉Crypto Market Update

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We's dive in to what Trump is doing to the markets.
Do we get a pump? Do we get a dump?
We'll break it all down for you. Let's get started.
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Speaker 1 (00:37):
Let's start off right here with this tweet, which is
the White House saying that President Trump will be making
an announcement at three pm. We don't know if this
is going to be a positive one, so by the
time this video hits it's possible this announcement will have
already taken place. I'm thinking it's got something to do
with China and most likely rare earths, which is the

(00:57):
biggest issue right now that we are facing there. It's
been a lot of deals being struck obviously with Argentina
and many other countries now as we start to move
into alternative sources for these rare ors. And that's kind
of the rubbing point right now between ggping and Trump.
Bitcoin whales right now though, are putting in some leverage
on bitcoin shorts ahead of this announcement. So this guy's

(01:19):
been about eighty percent right across what has been played
into the market over the last little bit. A couple
of points to kind of call out right here, trader say,
one hundred and seven is the next line in the sand.
I would kind of agree with that. We're holding around
one ten a little over right now as of recording.
But we are getting some pylons in this short, and
it is happening again. And this point right here, this

(01:43):
is an insider that just opened a four hundred million
dollars short ahead of Trump's major announcement.

Speaker 2 (01:47):
Today at three. So is he right? Is he wrong?

Speaker 1 (01:50):
Does he know something? All these kind of things are
playing into the market. I think the longer outlook here,
guys is if hopefully you're not playing swing trades and
you know, trades like this, and you're looking at the
long term picture that'll play into it. But I will
give you some, you know, some ideas as to maybe
where it could be going here as we break it down.

(02:10):
One thing to consider is the performance of the Trump
administration and the holdings. If you look all the different
organizations here, these guys are absolutely killing it in comparison
to even Nancy Nancy Pelosi. So Trump administration out performing
all other hedge funds. Every investment is up eighty percent,

(02:31):
two investments nearing one hundred and fifty percent, so crazy times.
There other things that I want to get to. Is
this right here, because this is where we get into
market selloffs. Trump's statements have caused major market selloffs and
volatility in the crypto space. Our poll says the markets
will tank at three during his announcement, So maybe he

(02:51):
is setting everybody up for negative news when in fact
it could be positive news. Many of the things that
are leading to that is all drilled around the government shutdown,
which is another possibility that we could see maybe something
brewing with the government shutdown and reopening. Remember that Trump
was the last president that did a long term government

(03:11):
shut down more than.

Speaker 2 (03:12):
Thirty five days.

Speaker 3 (03:14):
Here.

Speaker 1 (03:14):
We are looking right now towards November sixteenth, which is
still quite a ways out as we get into the holidays,
and a lot of systems getting a lot of pressure.
Now that's shutdown is underway and it's cutting a little
bit deeper. This is another thing that Trump is hitting
on and he's hoping on a deal for everything when
it comes to the optimism with Chinese leaders Jijiping, and

(03:38):
this is ranging from obviously the rare earth soybeans, all
that good stuff. Likelihood is Trump is utilizing a lot
of the technology and the finance infrastructure here in the
US to put some pressure on China, and I think
the other diversification, and this was something that was surprising
to me. I went back and did some research on
rare earth materials and back in this seventies and eighties,

(04:01):
the United States actually was one of the world's leaders
in rare earth material refining, which is the problem that
we're dealing with right now with China. And of course
that was all in a company that resided in the
state of California.

Speaker 2 (04:15):
Guess wants shut it down. It was the EPA, So again.

Speaker 1 (04:18):
Heavy regulation put us in a bad spot that we
are now faced with within China. Other things to kind
of look at right here. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant is
also going in with Jamison Greer, who's traveling ahead of
Trump on Wednesday, their first off Malaysia. This is going
to be with Chinese officials again again, rare earth shining

(04:39):
up again China.

Speaker 2 (04:41):
Versus the globe.

Speaker 1 (04:41):
It's not the US, and I would agree with that
because rare earth materials have fallen off dramatically in terms
of export, in terms of number coming out of China.
So beyond the lookouts, guys, we could see either some
good news and I know it's one or the other,
of course, but I feel like it might be good
news at three PM going forward, or at least some

(05:03):
positive news that could possibly correct the markets. Markets are
trading as if every escalation automatically de escalates. I think
that's just the nature of Trump in general. He has
such an unusual tactic that he's had forever. I don't
know why that anybody is surprised it. This goes all
the way back to the Apprentice. So it's not as
if you couldn't anticipate what's.

Speaker 2 (05:23):
Been going on.

Speaker 1 (05:24):
Trump's meeting with Gigiping by October thirty first just spiked.
And this is what I want to show you because
this would give me hope that we might see a
market up trend and coming in from a seventy five
percent chance to immediately a ninety one percent chance. So
the market knows and is watching a lot of these

(05:44):
indicators that could and Trump is kind of this way
where he starts to soften the rhetoric, then there's a
meeting that gets done. It's this is a typical political
foray that they're going back and forth with. I want
to go over to a quick clip that will kind
of recap some of this.

Speaker 2 (06:01):
Take a look, Scott.

Speaker 4 (06:02):
That's right. Treasure Secretary Scott Bessen just stopped and talked
to some reporters here on the north lawn of the
White House. I asked him about that report earlier today
that the US is considering software curbs for China in
retaliation for the Chinese action on trade. And this is
tricky for investor, Scott, because as you weigh all these headlines,
you have to figure how much of this is sort

(06:24):
of trade saber rattling ahead of the meeting next week,
and how much of this is really actually on the table,
actually likely to happen. We know that the President is
departing from Malaysia on Friday. We know that the Treasury
Secretary has said that he'll be having meetings with the
Chinese delegation as early as this weekend. So all of
this next couple of days in the run up to

(06:46):
those meetings could be both sides jockeying for position in
those talks, saying, hey, you know, if you're coming at
us with this as a reminder, we have that response
ready to go. But no. The whole vibe from the
Treasure Secretary was this meeting is on. But you did
hear the President yesterday raise the prospects sort of unprompted,
you know that the meeting could not happen between himself

(07:08):
and Xijiping. He said, sometimes people might pull out of
a meeting, that might say things are too nasty to
have a meeting right now. The President said, you know,
but this is just business, so it's not too nasty.
So it sounded like the President was suggesting that Xi
Jinping was the one who might pull out of the
meeting before it happens. Tentatively at the end of next week.
White House officials will point out to you that no

(07:30):
meeting has officially been scheduled.

Speaker 1 (07:33):
All right, So a couple of points to kind of
understand there is it boils down to one thing. Trump's
wanting to make a deal, and I think it's just
a matter of them finding something that works for both
China and the US, and he continues to make deals.
I mean, he's obviously made a deal with TikTok.

Speaker 2 (07:49):
We've got a lot.

Speaker 1 (07:50):
Going on in terms of trade tensions that could be released.
But I think Trump is in a position right now
where he is forced now his own hand around rare Earth.
It's not necessarily his fault, but definitely he's having to
deal with it. Other things that play into the market,
of course, of the FMC. We'll be doing a live
stream next week six days out there. Now, we've got

(08:11):
a potential fifty basis points cut by the year end
are increasing, and many people still looking at could we
see a seventy five meaning a quarter and then fifty
or fifty and a quarter. That's kind of what we're
looking at between now and December. In terms of information,
the FED is kind of flying blind here right now,
So the blackout continues. No September job reports, no inflation data.

(08:35):
I'm curious to what's going to come online when we
come back with the government and we see at least
this data starting to accumulate in. Does this change the
Fed's position around all of this. So the one thing
that considered, though, I want to go back to that
tweet real quick, is this right here, even whereas the
FED is lost access now to ADP's private payroll data,

(08:58):
and that's twenty percent of us private work, so that's
gone dark as well. ADP is a big deal because
ADP is real numbers coming from American payroll. So this
is a factor that Powell does not necessarily have in place.
If you look at the poly market right there, boom,
you've got almost a one hundred percent chance of a
quarter coming in for next week, and of course that

(09:21):
raises as you go into December. We hold at right
around eighty percent on December, and then even in January,
which would be the third cut end of January, it's
still about a fifty to fifty on no change versus
a twenty five at below, which is about forty two
percent right now. So let me jump to this tweet
right here, breaking President Trump pardons finance founder CZ absolutely

(09:46):
in my opinion, unacceptable.

Speaker 2 (09:48):
If this guy was that bad to.

Speaker 1 (09:50):
Get a federal offense like that and it was proven
and it did, and the deals that he made with
the Justice Department, all of that and he's already done.
I mean, so what benefit is this other than giving
him more business access benefits globally just not necessarily in
my bag in terms of a good decision. Adam Cochran

(10:11):
kind of broke it down because Caz admitted these sanctions
and sanctioned violations, so he knowingly did this.

Speaker 2 (10:19):
And then remember that there are some partnerships here.

Speaker 1 (10:24):
He partnered with trump'sho are Liberty five, partnered with Dominari
Holdings that's Trump's sons. He invested in projects in yzy
Labs formerly Binance, now this is a CZ partner. Then
he was partnered by Trump less than a month later.
So apparently it's pay for crime. That's the only thing
I agree with Adam in that point. But I think

(10:45):
this is something that anyone that is in this kind
of role, because I mean, there's guys out there people
that have done much, much, much, much less and are
not getting presidential pardons out there. Other news that are
hitting is this news right here. Gold is back forty
one fifty the low correction. Many people kind of thought
that was a little bit of a manipulation, both on
gold and silver. They're testing out a handful of support

(11:09):
levels and we are starting to look at maybe four
thousand being the new floor. And then with that, Peter
Shift drops another bomb, which I think is important.

Speaker 2 (11:20):
Take a look at this clip.

Speaker 3 (11:22):
So you might as well just have tokenized gold and
have something that's stable to the price of gold. I'm
probably gonna launch my own token at some point. I'm
I'm building out a platform on shift gold right now. No,
but well, so you can buy gold at shift gold
right on an app on your phone. We won't send

(11:43):
you the actual gold. The gold will be stored in
a vault that you own and you have it, and
you'll be able to transfer ownership of that gold to
other people, you know through the app, and you could
use it, you know, as a media exchange. You can
pay or be paid in gold instantly, and you can
redeem it in physical gold, or eventually you can redeem

(12:03):
it in a token. I'm also going to give people
a debit card.

Speaker 1 (12:08):
All right, well, I mean Peter, that's great, this is
out there right now. Paxos of course has a tather
of course. Now granted, the interesting point here is you've
got a physical network that could have the capacity to
do physical delivery. That's an interesting component that could make
a big difference here with Shiff, CZ of course attacked
this saying the obvious. Most people in crypto know this.

(12:30):
Most people not in crypto understand. Tokenizing gold is not
on chain gold. It's tokenizing trust some third party will
give you gold at some later date. It's a trust
me bro token. Now, if this is audited, you know,
there's a handful of products out there that are audited
with physical trust, and those I agree would not be

(12:51):
trust me bro. I don't know where Schiff is going
with this. We'll try to get him on the channel
to talk about this, because he and I actually the
last time he was on the show, we were talking
about tokenizing gold and why he didn't just do that,
And now here he is going in on maybe making
that a reality. Another thing that you have to consider
right now going into the next leg up, because this

(13:13):
could happen over what is and will be I think
an elongated cycle of what we're seeing right now, and
that is how we're going to see these cycles rotate.
Part of this comes from the money market area, and
of course you're looking at almost seven and a half
trillion now setting in money markets. This continues to just skyrocket.
Look at that crazy number right there, guys continuing to move.

(13:36):
This was an interesting take, and this is one that
I agree with because I've seen all of these things happen.
Let me showcase this tweet right here. This was by
Shanaka Pereira, a researcher on this, and he's what he's
talking about, is this seven.

Speaker 2 (13:50):
Point trillion detonator.

Speaker 1 (13:53):
Now, there's a few things in the article that I
want to get to, but the big one is this
right here. The historical pattern nobody really remembers.

Speaker 2 (14:00):
Ninety eight. Of course, this all was the tech bubble
fed cuts.

Speaker 1 (14:04):
We had a one point three trillion money market funds
activate two thousand and three. Housing mania began Activation nine
right after the eight you know, economic crisis. Another thing
hits another rally and a three point eight trillion come
into the market, and now here we're setting on a
seven point four trillion. So there's a lot to look at,

(14:24):
and there's many triggles triggers that can play into this.
So this gets very interesting because of the real question.
And everybody will say, well, Paul, not all that's going
to be going into risk assets, and I will say, yes,
of course not. And it's possible that people could be
waiting for the FED to activate. Smart money is probably
trying to move ahead of the puck, trying to activate

(14:45):
either in a bitcoin eat while it is somewhat recessed,
and move in before we start to see rate cuts
coming down, money market funds decreasing, and people looking for
spots because at that at that point, you've got risk
asset starting to climb. So in some cases you could
be up as much as ten twenty thirty percent in
a difference of a trade, just because if you've moved early,

(15:07):
So a lot of things could play. Where I think
this will go is early money will win. Let me
jump over to fear and greed. This is another indicator
that could be setting up for kind of that long
term play that I'm getting at, is money market money
coming off the sidelines, what we're seeing regulatory front, what
we could see in trade, what could be happening in

(15:30):
the economy all correcting. Look at fear and greed holding
right now at around twenty eight last time you start
to see these dips in these red zones, jumps in,
jumps out, jumps in, jumps out, and then we start
to see these moves upward in terms of fear and greed.
That might be where we could be nearing the bottom.
So pay close attention to the markets. Hopefully you're not
going to be in a position where you have to

(15:52):
sell an asset because assets look forward, Guys look forward
into multi year holding.

Speaker 2 (15:57):
That's the way to go. Another thing that.

Speaker 1 (15:59):
Could get us out of this is, of course Clarity Act,
and here is Brian Armstrong talking about that.

Speaker 2 (16:04):
Take a look.

Speaker 5 (16:05):
And so one date we heard floated was let's try
to get this markup done before Thanksgiving. I think that
there's ninety percent of the issues are already aligned on
and agreed, and there's draft text going back and forth,
a lot of great cross functional collaboration happening. That last
ten percent are the remaining issues, and everyone committed to
get in the room together and work it out and

(16:26):
hopefully we'll see some draft texts or get it out
of committee by Thanksgiving.

Speaker 1 (16:30):
Okay, So when I look at Brian right there doing
that interview, he has very unusual face response there.

Speaker 2 (16:37):
Do you guys see that?

Speaker 1 (16:38):
I mean, have you seen other interviews where he's kind
of had that smirky smile? Does he know something here
that this could be a reality And this would be
huge if we get something by Thanksgiving, that would be huge.
Another factor that plays in to where this could all
be going is this right here, Fidelity a brokerage account.

(16:59):
If you are in right now, you probably notice something new.
It's called Solana. It's now in there. It's tradable now,
you can't move it in and out. It's you know,
it's brokerage account, but you can't buy it. So you're
getting exposure now. And there are many people that will
never move out of Fidelity and they're going to buy
Solana here. And the other thing we'll probably see is

(17:21):
other tokens. So you can kind of read read between
the lines. Just go to the big ones and you'll
probably see the next few that will make their way
into the Fidelity app. I anticipate that's going to be
coming for sure. Here's Nick Dukeoff. He was talking about
the mag seven and he added one to the list
right there, Alphabet Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tasla, Mag seven,

(17:42):
Solana as the Mag eight.

Speaker 2 (17:44):
I'm going to disagree with that.

Speaker 1 (17:47):
Salon's a great product, great project love, it got lots
of use case, super efficient, But I think the real
MAG eight would have to be Ethereum flowing into this
group only because it has so much of network effect
really across all sorts of areas, including what could be tokenization,

(18:07):
real world assets, you name it. We're leading there. Here's
Tom Lee. I think tokeniz's real world assets. We'll go
from thirty four billion, notice the number here, thirty four
billion to three hundred billion in the next twelve months.
That's almost a ten x in tokenized real world assets,
all of that happening on uneath. That's why I think
that is the Mag eight. If you want to call

(18:29):
eth a MAG eight.

Speaker 2 (18:31):
All right, guys, if.

Speaker 1 (18:32):
You're not in our diamond circle, make sure and get
in there. You can, of course joined by the link
down below.

Speaker 2 (18:37):
It's very easy.

Speaker 1 (18:38):
Follow me on TikTok. We're gonna do TikTok today. It's official.

Speaker 2 (18:42):
Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time.

Speaker 1 (18:43):
Right here on the Paul Baron Show,

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