Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Collection day is here.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
We'll be breaking down the tariffs and also what's happening
in the market right now. With a lot of earnings,
it's going to be a good one. Book back into
the show. Let's get started. I do want to thank
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Speaker 1 (00:32):
Check it out.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Always check with your financial advisor or your texts person
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the time, IRA's good for diversification. Let's go over to
a couple of points I want to hit on today.
President Trump says, reciprocal tariffs now in effect. This has
happened last night at midnight, so we started taking the
clock on collecting tariffs last night.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
The likelihood is.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
This could be significant now starting to come into the US.
Coffers a couple of point points within this double tariffs
on India to fifty percent imposed additional fifteen to Japan
and now so one hundred percent tariff on semiconductors is
a big deal, semiconductors mostly being offshore right now. Pharmaceutical
tariffs two hundred and fifty percent is coming soon. All
(01:16):
of these had previous trade deals and either they were
teased or they were just flat, you know, discarded, and
we're working on new deals right now. So it is
a question mark right now. As so whether or not
these tariffs are going to truly hit the market.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
Are they going to affect you and me?
Speaker 2 (01:33):
And I'll explain that a little bit around where earnings
are in a second, where I think the economy is going.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
But I want to go to a clip real quick
that kind of explains it. Take a look.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
I think it's too early to tell. Keep in mind,
it's very hard to use tariffs both as a negotiating
tool and as a way to increase revenue, and the
avestage seems to want to do both because it's a
negotiating tool and the US get's what it wants and
it's got to give up the tariffs. If it needs
the revenue, it can't do that. So I think this
(02:05):
explains at least some part why the President has insisted
on a baseline tariff for every country, even those with
which we actually have a trade surplus, like the UK
and Australia. But that way he can say that he's
bringing in some revenue, even though it's not as much
as he might have hoped. But at the same time
(02:25):
he's backing off the more extreme tariffs to try to
avoid retaliation and try to keep the US economy from
slowing down further.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
Well, one thing that is happening, and I would agree,
I think the economy is slowing, even though on earnings
we are not seeing it yet there we are seeing
it in the jobs reports, and I think this could
be something that is queuing up. And I'll talk about
that in a minute, but I want to go to
the strategy side of this, because this is of course
involving one of the biggest companies in America, Apple, Remember
(02:54):
that Apple on the first tariff which China Apple said,
wait a minute, we're gonna waffle away. We're gonna go
over and and start building, you know, manufacturing in the
United States. This was a whole issue that of course,
uh Trump readjusted from a twenty five percent tariff and
backed off of that, and all it took was really
this right here, and that was Tim Cook giving out
(03:17):
the president a six thousand dollars back pro But here's
the interesting thing.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
Take a look at that picture. What do you see there?
You see an empty factory.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Now Tim could say, yeah, we're gonna build stuff here,
but the reality he's probably never gonna do this.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
So I think he is just stringing the.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
President along to try to keep apple and good graces
in some way to be able to find this off. Now,
eventually either Trump figures out what they're doing, because now
the big announcement is what they were doing over in
the White House yesterday, which is where they're bringing in,
like I think of a six hundred billion to invest
in Kentucky. And whether or not that's going to happen
(03:55):
is the question mark right now. Because Tim this time,
all he had to do was give him like a
little clo last disc and it was a one of
one designed by I think a veteran or something. But
point being, I think Cook is continuing to string the
president along here in terms of trying to get these
lower tariffs.
Speaker 1 (04:12):
I don't know if it's going to last very long.
We'll see how it plays out.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
One thing you can count on, and that, of course,
is Trump to continue to surprise you. And one of
the things he's going to surprise you with is a
four oh one K access to crypto. This is bigger
than I think a lot of people can imagine. The
amount of four one K money that is out there
in the United States is staggering. The opportunity to be
able to put digital assets in four oh one k's
(04:36):
is going to shift the market in a big way.
Here's a clip from Mike Novograts talking about that.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
Take a look.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
The devils are the details, but you're going to see funds.
I mean, the simplest thing is a bitcoin fund an ETF.
But again, it's when it becomes commonplace, when you can
do it at your old yeah, the place you've already
been doing business with. You know, if it's Fidelity or
U t row Price or whoever it is, you just
(05:03):
pull more people into this ecosystem. So I'm in the
lane that bitcoin is digital gold, and it's a you know,
it's a hedge against incessant money printing, right, it's the
heads against incessant bad fiscal policy in not just the US,
but in the whole world. And so I don't think
(05:24):
bitcoin will be used as a currency. I think stable
coins will be. And I think you're going to continue
to see bitcoin appreciate as long as we have governments
that can't spend less than they then they take in
in revenue.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
Well, Mike, I think that's going to be a known
fact for quite some time. I agree with the novocrats
there in terms of the pressure that is going to
put on not only US economies, but to his point,
global economies, and it will continue to push people in
digital assets. And I think for many of you, if
you're watching this maybe for the very first time, you're
maybe starting to think about getting into crypto or digital assets.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
It's in general.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
First of all, if you're not subscribed to the show,
take a minute hit the subscribe button right now, because
this will help you start to understand the impact on
not only your future, but also I think the economy
in general. Now, he goes on in another clip around
the four oh one K side of things and what
this will look like in the near future.
Speaker 1 (06:23):
If this actually starts to take place.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
Take a look, help us understand what is going on exactly.
You know, bull market joy while it lasts, never does
you know we're in a bullmarket. Trump last night came
out and talked about crypto assets being eligible for four
one k's. I mean, that's a monster fool of capital.
I think one of the things that I actually didn't
(06:46):
even comprehend is these treasury companies have done so well.
The public equity markets are so much bigger than what
the crypto markets were, and so as we're really broadening
our reach through public equities into our asset class, you're
just seeing tons of money pour in.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
All right, so welcome to the bull run.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Mike is definitely all in on this, and of course
some of the things he hit on there where four
one k's will play into this how we've seen this
shift to stable coins. But the big one is how
treasuries are going to play into this.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
And when you think.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
About treasuries, you look at whether it's bitcoin treasuries, ETH treasuries,
or other digital assets. This will be a bigger window.
Because I'm still on the fence as to whether this
is a bubble or a complete new shift in how
the market may be attacking digital assets. So there's a
lot to take a look at. If you look at
treasure companies in general. Nake ROSSI right here, kind of
(07:37):
a wild stat e Treasury Companies and spot ethtfs have
now each bought up about one point six percent of
current total EATH supply. This is beginning as of June,
so that's a pretty significant amount. I mean, if you
think about eth in general, because it's a huge digital asset.
At the point being, this is just getting started. There's
only a handful of treasury companies and there's only a
(07:57):
handful of companies that have done this. So imagine when
we get a larger percentage of companies that say own
eight like maybe you own Nvidia or maybe you own Tesla.
That is happening and will happen I think on a
lot of balance sheets in the coming months and years.
This is a big deal. Now, another big deal that
happened is this right here. Rail is now joining Ripple
(08:18):
bag Garling hose House.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
Tweeted on this.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
The reason that this is a big deal is because
Rail has even though they're a Canadian based firm, and
there's a little bit of activity I think it was
a two hundred million dollar deal. Many people would say,
well that's just not that big, But in reality, Rail
has a lot of cross border payment settlement. This only
increases the coffers for Ripple. One note in this tweet
right here is this one right there, and it's that
(08:44):
we power ten percent of all B to B stable
coin volume. And now that we've got Ripple, we're going
to scale faster. So ten percent significant by one company,
and now all of that setting in Ripple. And of
course right here is Brad garling House August doldrums that
are just kind of confirming the Ripple financial acquisition. So
(09:05):
this is again one another go to provider of a
go to provider of the stable coin payment infrastructure. All
of this all leaning into where Ripple is heading. Other
things that are happening out there is we've got Kaitlyn
Long a little bit upset with this, and she is
slamming xrp's idea of a centralized network and backwards tokenomics.
Remember that Kaitlin Long, come, just remember about what this
(09:28):
is about. She tried to get a banking charter that
was not happening. Now we've got all these banking charters
kind of lining up out there, including Ripple most likely
going to get one.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
And I think this is just a little bit.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
Of maybe bad blood under the bridge here, But going forward,
I think this is a factor you have to look
at in general, is the idea of centralization. It's one
thing that everybody is going to look at as we
see a lot of these charters starting to go out there.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
But you also have to look at bitcoin if there
in many of.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Which we are all going to see more consolidation of
where these assets are being held because guys, for the
first time Wall Street is here, and not only Wall Street.
Now we have the US government behind all of this
action in terms of an overall industry, and that is a.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
Big factor going forward.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
Here's Eric balschunis talking about in this and this is
in reference to polymarket a trend, and that is that
the odds of the XRP ETF approval went down to
sixty two percent after some of the votes were disclosed
showing Crenshaw voting no. But what he points at right
here is that Crenshaw one of the SEC commissioners. What
he points at is that Crenshaw's just going to vote
(10:39):
no on everything, So don't worry about that one as much.
I think the key is we're going to continue to
see the SEC supporting this, and it's just a matter
of time. We're going to see an XRP ETF for sure,
and I think it's happening this year. Other things that
are happening right now, you've got pre stocks coming out,
which is officially launching on Solana. This is going to
allow users to trade tokenized pre ipo stocks like open Ai, Stripe, SpaceX,
(11:05):
et cetera. All of that's going to be available over
on Salona. So we're going to see a lot more
remember seeker shipping. Now. Hopefully we'll have a phone here
in the studio soon to show you. But the point
is you're gonna have one hundred and fifty thousand phones
at least going out there and maybe attacking scenarios like
this in terms of growth around.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
Token is stocks, especially on pre ipo. That's a good one.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
Now talk about IPOs. Let me go to the earnings numbers,
because this is this is insane to me.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
Earnings.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
This is the best earning seasons we've seen in years.
Sixty three percent of the S and P five hundred
companies now have beat earnings expectations and at least one
standard deviation. This is the highest percentage four years, all right.
So many people will say, well, wait a minute, pull
the economy is supposed to be slowing down. In reality,
is there a lag here that is occurring right now?
(11:53):
I think that's the question. Because ten percent of firms
have missed estimates by at least one standard deviation. That's
the low share in a year and below the long
term average of like thirteen percent. I think the real
question is how does this affect long term into the economy.
I say this all the time. Watch the jobs first.
It is the bell.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
Weather to how companies will perform.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
If jobs start to fall, it automatically starts to push in,
especially in the retail sector. And many of these companies
are the ones that are reporting right now, So be
on the look guys right now.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
It could be end of this year.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
But even though that's a more active area of revenue
for a lot of companies, especially in the retail sector
because of holiday season, and I think people will still
continue to put money into that. They'll just refinance credit
cards and refinance cars all that kind of knowing that
we're going to probably see lower rates coming down the road,
so people are thinking REFI.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
Definitely, there's probably mortgages out there.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
Being done in that same hope of where we may
see lower fed rates coming up. Tech stocs, though, are
outperforming everyone the S and P five hundred by its
largest margin since the peak of the dot com bubble. Guys,
that is an insane chart to see the dot com
bubble compared to where we are now, because that was
a massive fall in the market of nineteen ninety nine
(13:13):
and two thousand, one of the worst eras in technology.
So hopefully none of that happens, but it's something I'm
keeping a very close eye on, and you can too
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We'll catch you next time right here on The Paul
Baron Show.