Weekend Crypto Crash?🔥Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo

The crypto market continued to decline on Thursday and today, October 17, following renewed global uncertainty after former U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. The threat of trade disruption pushed investors toward defensive assets, weighing on both equities and digital currencies. 

~This Episode is sponsored by SALT~
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Guest: Evan Aldo
Evan Aldo Youtube Channel ➜ https://bit.ly/EvanAldo
20% off Evan Aldo Course ➜ https://bit.ly/EvanCourse ➜  Use code "paulbarron"

00:00 Intro
00:10 Sponsor: SALT Lending
01:20 Markets are fearful
02:15 How will we end the month?
03:00 Bitcoin analysis
04:50 Are you all-in?
05:50 TACO incoming
07:10 Government Shutdown resolution will rally crypto
07:45 Is there real progress happening between China and tariffs?
10:30 How to reposition portfolio?
12:00 Ethereum analysis
14:00 How DCA out of ETH?
15:00 BNB analysis
16:10 Solana analysis
17:15 SOL vs SUI vs AVAX vs ETH
18:45 Good time to take tax loss?
20:20 Outro

#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum
~Weekend Crypto Crash?🔥Technical Analysis w/  ⁨@EvanAldo⁩  ~
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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's get into it today and let's take a look
at whether or not we're going to see a crash
into the weekend. We'll break it all down for you.
Let's just jump right in. I do want to think
our sponsor day and that is Salt Lending. You guys
can go over and start to play some strategies here
around utilizing your digital assets to create liquidity, and this

(00:20):
could offer a lot of things. The nice thing about
salt is they have this thing called salt Shield, which
is a no liquidation solution, so very effective. If you're
looking at this, and most people in reality, if you're
going to go out and take a loan on your
bitcoin or on your ethereum, you're probably going to only
go at a thirty percent or maybe even a fifty
percent TVL and that is our LTV loan to value

(00:42):
and that is going to benefit you. So take a
look at that. It may be able to extend you
into being able to buy a dip if you are
already all the way in on where this is going.
So check out Salt Lending. We'll leave a link down below.
All right, I want to bring in mister evan Aldo
to talk about some trades today we'll be getting into bitcoin, eth,
B and B. How are you having.

Speaker 2 (01:04):
I'm doing fantastic, Paul, and well, I will stay fantastic
if we can hold if we can hold thirty seven
hundred free eth and so far we've seen a little jump,
but I will be doing worse if we lose seventy
or excuse me, if we lose thirty seven hundred for ETH.

Speaker 1 (01:18):
Hey, listen, there's a few people that are still very
bullish right now. Here is mister Tom Lee coming in.
I understand why markets are wary. We've got a lot
of tensions right now with this global trade issue, major
deliveraging last week that we saw, and then the fears
on private credit. October is normally the explosion month, but

(01:38):
we're not necessarily seeing that, so sentiment is definitely negative.
We're seeing that in a lot of the markets. Only
twenty two percent of fund managers right now are beating benchmark,
So that means everybody's chasing to try to get into this.
But his main thing by the dip guys right there,
that's it, look for opportunities. By the now you got
to think about it. This is Tom Lee, which right now,

(02:01):
Tom is like a super investor. I mean, he's one
of the top five on Wall Street. He is the
guy that called bitcoin very early, and he is also
the guy that has gone all in on ethereum. Within that,
if you look at what people are doing right now
in terms of what this looks like for either October

(02:22):
or October, right there it is October is forty nine,
in October at fifty, So we are at a split
decision on whether or not we play this out. What's
your opinion right now up for October? Do we get
a green month or do we close red?

Speaker 2 (02:39):
Call me crazy, but I still think we may have
potential of bitcoin hitting one hundred and thirty K by
the end of the month or early November. So there's
still potential if you hold these areas right now and
you have a good jump here. If you don't, then
we may be in some serious trouble.

Speaker 1 (02:56):
So if you go to the bitcoin chart right now, Evan,
and you look at that position, because this is one
that I know Ben Kaunt has talked about this one
hundred to one oh two range, this fifty week moving average,
it has to be able to be broken for a
period of time. What are you showing right now in
terms of bitcoin, and where would be your signal of
no return versus a signal that we are back.

Speaker 2 (03:21):
So if we look at the chart right here for bitcoin,
the big thing I'm looking at the four hour is
big right here. Hit the big point about one oh three.
That's a big pocket right there. Nice jump on it,
which is good. To answer your question, I think if
you lose like this like barrier right here one hundred,
you know, and you lose it for more than you
know a day or two or even a few hours,

(03:43):
probably then your bull run is most likely over. Unfortunately, however,
there's a lot of good things that we're seeing right now.
You see a bullet stive on the four hour right here,
momentum waves coming up, money flow coming up as well,
which looks good. Last time this happened was back at
the end of September and you had, as you can see,
sixteen percent jump. If we do the same thing, you
likely can get up to one hundred and twenty K

(04:06):
towards the end of October. If you could continue forward
your next big place where these lines intersect huge area
one hundred and thirty k. This would be my absolute
most bolish indication by the end of the month one
hundred thirty K and then that could be your bullmarket peak.
Maybe you could extend into November and hit like one forty.
At this point, I'm not really thinking you're gonna get

(04:27):
all the way up to one fifty, but we'll see
what happens. Let's focus on getting up to one thirty
sometime by early November, and I think we'll be in
a very good position if that does happen.

Speaker 1 (04:38):
So yeah, all right, So you're still leaning somewhat positive
on bitcoin if you look at the amount of positions
right now. We just put this poll out just a
little bit ago. We'll probably revisit this to see where
it holds. But how much of your investing capital is
positioned in the market primarily I'm assuming this could be

(04:59):
crypto primary, But it looks like all in at about
fifty six percent. That's crazy sixty to eighty percent at
twenty three. So we're standing at what is that almost? Yeah,
almost eighty percent over yeah, right at eighty percent right now?
At sixty percent or more in the crypto market? Is

(05:20):
that where your bags are right now? What are you
setting on in terms of.

Speaker 2 (05:25):
I'm all in right now? Well, It depends on you
define all in I mean, I'm not every penny of
reserves and you know, money in real estate and other things.
But yeah, I mean I'm I'm like seventy you know,
eighty percent of like you know, a lot of I mean,
highly in eth, especially since eth has done so well
against all coins. But yeah, if you look at my portfolio,

(05:46):
you'd think, yeah, this guy's high risk.

Speaker 1 (05:47):
Yeah, high risk. All right, So we got a couple
of things that are happening. President Trump calls his one
hundred percent tariff on China not sustainable. This, of course
has been back and forth, so he's going head to
head with China in terms of negotiation tactics. And you know,
there are some other things that could play into this.
Even Scott Bessen mentioned this the other day, and that

(06:10):
is this push on what other kind of pain points
could they impose on China? And part of it was
maybe even delisting over on the Nasdaq. But China is
now betting it can win a trade shore trade war
and is playing hardball with Trump. And I think this
is the issue. My understanding is we're going to get
a meeting between she and Trump if we see this

(06:32):
come off do you think this is more important than
the government shutdown stopping or China and Trump playing nice?

Speaker 2 (06:43):
Government shutdown is big because I think that ends the
gold and silver rally, puts more money into bitcoin. This
is also very big as well. They're both huge. I
would say it's hard to kind of pinpoint what's more important.
They're both very important, though. I think we need both
of them to kind of happen to get this show
on the road. I would say, to get things to

(07:04):
keep moving forward.

Speaker 1 (07:06):
If we get the government shutdown resolved it and it
does happen, you feel that that gold and silver move
is over, at least in the short term and it
begins to hold or do you think we'll see a
significant market correction there on gold and silver.

Speaker 2 (07:22):
I think gold and silver will start to bleed against
bitcoin and ethereum as soon as the government shut down ends.
I do think between some time between now and early
twenty six you will see you for gold at least
a twenty thirty percent correction. I'm buying thirty three hundred
would be a big place to get in on gold.
I think.

Speaker 1 (07:41):
I want to go into this clip because this gets
into really where the progress is going and this is
all about China, because obviously this is a big factor here.
But let's go to satwe.

Speaker 3 (07:54):
Last weekend when the President said everything's going to be fine.

Speaker 2 (07:58):
Scott Bessett really.

Speaker 3 (07:59):
Chafed at that journal piece that said that they're just
watching the stock market and that they you know, they
base their comments on what's going on in the stock market.
And again you could say that once again, the President
today said, no, it's not Those big tariffs are not
going to last. Should we believe that or should we

(08:19):
attribute it to to watching what the market's doing?

Speaker 2 (08:22):
Is there real progress? We don't know.

Speaker 4 (08:25):
Like I said, I don't know what's going to happen
in this call. The fact of the call itself, I
think is notable, which is why I'm calling it into
you guys. But you know, we don't know what the
content of that call is going to be. And obviously
Besen did bristle at that piece.

Speaker 5 (08:38):
You know, the US side.

Speaker 4 (08:40):
Of course, doesn't want it to look as if the
Chinese side has.

Speaker 5 (08:43):
More leverage in this negotiation than they do, and that's
sort of what that Wall Street journal piece was suggesting
earlier this week. So it is very hard to say,
and I think Ultimately, no large breakthrough can come until
the two top leaders meet face to face.

Speaker 1 (09:03):
All right, So no large breakthroughs I would agree with that,
and I think that's what we're waiting on, is to
see that coming in on between Trump and She, coming
on whether or not they're going to come to a
deal one hundred percent tariffs on China in effect by
November first. Nobody believes this is going to happen. This
is on polymarket, so you can kind of see right there,

(09:26):
it's a nine percent chance right now. Why if no
one believes this is going to happen. Do you feel
we're seeing such an impact on the markets? Is there
a subversive thought that Trump's going to try something else?
What do you think it is right now?

Speaker 2 (09:41):
Evan? You know, I mean the markets they always you know,
have their angrier points, They always have, you know, money
moving around. We talked about, you know, the finance thing
and all that that invokes the fear, especially for all coins.
I I don't know, you know, maybe this could be
this is you know, this would kind of support what
I was saying for the big jump ump. People are
just overreacting a lot. Maybe given that we're in quarter

(10:04):
four and the fier cycle. People are getting out a
little bit too early. Maybe it could be that fear,
so I would remain optimistic. Once this does, you know,
kind of end with Trump and some good things hopefully
come out and government shutdown ends, you could be off
to the races.

Speaker 1 (10:21):
We had a call yesterday or a show yesterday with
Jamie Coates from Real Vision, and he was kind of
talking about this whole issue of repositioning into the major
l ones and or Bitcoin, you know, basically is what
it boiled down to. And if you look at all
of the investments right now on digital assets in general,

(10:42):
I think a lot of people are spread fairly thin
in terms of diversification. How are you playing your portfolio?
Are you stacking at the top side of the high
value assets right now or are you still taking some risk
down on the lower value assets.

Speaker 2 (10:56):
You know, I bought a lot of the lower caps
stuff like a year to two years ago. I've had
as much as I want of it so far. On
this dip, I bought ETH, which hit off of a
big area thirty seven hundred, So I'm betting pretty big
on eth right now. So I've stacked some more Eth
and I'm planning to be honest with you and kind
of getting out of that. You know, hopefully if Eth

(11:17):
goes above five thousand, hopefully somewhere between fifty eight hundred
to seventy three hundred. So that's kind of how I'm
playing it right now for a nice Eth trade. If
you want to be riskier, yeah, all coins have hit
big areas, the big l ones, so I do think
that slightly riskier play could be a big thing for
the l ones right here. But obviously, as always, that's

(11:38):
going to be riskier than Eth. I think right now,
when you look at the eight bitcoin evaluation, especially with
QT ending really soon, that could strengthen the l one
argument too. And when you look at eth bitcoin evaluation,
this is one of the rare times where I would
even say it's like, maybe slightly less risk to get
into Ether right now. I know some of the maxis
will hate me for that, but just right now Eth

(12:00):
looks real good against Bitcoin.

Speaker 1 (12:01):
I would say, I'm looking at the eight bitcoin chart.
I mean it has been trading down obviously, but now
it's position however, it has flatline. This is on the
on the weekly. But if to your point, if you
go to the daily somewhat somewhat sideways right now, at
least after coming up some Well, okay, so what are
the key the key indicators right now on ethereum? What

(12:23):
are you watching? Where would you enter or exit if
you were trying to make a trade on eth right now.

Speaker 2 (12:30):
So it's kind of similar to kind of what we're
seeing on bitcoin. Just like the Bitcoin chart, you're making
a higher low so far you have a very nice
you could see these waves coming up, money flow coming
up in the four four hour very nice Polish divergence forming.
You know, your textbook standard TA would tell you that
if you can break above like four thousand, you should

(12:51):
be off your way on your way to forty six hundred,
which would be huge. So what you could do here
low risk, high red word trade something along these lanes
all the way up to you know, maybe this high
October seventh. You know that's a risk order ratio above
two to one, so very low risk or high reward.
Something like this would work very well. And the thing
here is, like I do think if you were to

(13:13):
come down and like lose this area and lose thirty
four hundred and bounce around like this for a few days,
you're probably dead in the water. Your bull run's probably over.
I think we really need to hold here, so I
think very low risk, high reward. Try to buy the
dip here. Not financial advice, but what I'm doing. Buy
the dip here and try to run this up. If
we can get another wave on the daily that brings

(13:34):
us up quite a bit, do something like this again.
Run us up to forty seven hundred, then you break
above five thousand. Get up to this point for potentially
a cycle peak early November fifty seven hundred, start to
scale out there, and then best case scenario into the
end of the year, maybe even early January. Who knows,
seventy three hundreds or something like this. So yeah, that's

(13:56):
the big area. I'm looking at the thing I'm waiting for,
and I'll show you real quick here this is a
nice indicator that I've been waiting for for a while.
On eighth the three week trigger wave, well kind of
anchor wave trigger wave to this wave over here. This
VWOP is if you all comes down, you're going to
see a red dot here in this three week that's
gonna happen anywhere from a week or two to the

(14:16):
end of the year, even January, and that would be
kind of the market cycle peak where I would say,
is a good place to really get out, similar to
kind of up here on that area, nice place December
of twenty one right there, so that area, and you
could even test it back this high wave right here,
this is January of twenty eighteen. It's kind of the
red dot above the zero line here anchor trigger wave

(14:39):
in quarter four. You haven't seen it yet, but you're
probably going to see it byerly January at the latest.

Speaker 1 (14:45):
Well, and that'll be a key indicator. I think. Yeah,
as we look into E and okay, so beyond ethereum,
let's stay in the layer ones for now. Let's look
at B and B because there's been a lot of
people that have really one big time on B and B.
Where are you today if you're looking at BNBO, would
you take this as an asset or would you stand

(15:08):
on the sidelines on this one.

Speaker 2 (15:11):
B and B? I mean, yeah, it's like hitting a
big point here. I think it could be. I mean,
there's gonna be less volatility in a lot of other things,
but hitting that big point around one thousand, I think
common sense would tell you, you know, this is just
basic ta. If you can hold a thousand, you've got
a good shot of jumping up to like fifteen hundred
into the end of the year in November December, if
the market continues good. I would say absolute best case

(15:33):
scenario would probably be two thousand, but I think that's
a little bit too opimistic. I'd be looking at fifteen hundred. So,
you know, following this general trajectory into the end of
the year, I think fifteen hundred is a pretty good goal,
you know. I mean some aults can potentially double or
triple on that amount of time. This is you know,
we're towards the end of the cycle here, but I
think fifteen hundred. You definitely could see B and.

Speaker 1 (15:54):
B trading at around thousand one thousand now and down
four days in a row. Also off of that last
week liquidation that we saw and a lot of people,
you know, kind of looking at finance in a different format.
Let's jump over to Solana and compare if you were
looking at Solana today, which is under two hundred, that's
been a window that people have been looking at on Seoul.

(16:17):
How would you play Salana right now as it's trading
at one eighty two, as we record.

Speaker 2 (16:23):
Solana's promising, I'll say that as long as you could
hold this area one eighty seven year below it right now,
but I think we could easily wake up like we did,
you know over here in early October, kind of kind
of what you've been seeing hirelow right here, very similar
to Bigcoinny theorem. And if you can kind of break
above one eighty eight, that big place you know, maintain,
have this bull did play out, you got a good

(16:44):
shot at potentially early November, end of this month hitting
this big point two seventy, which is what I would
be looking at some nice trajectory like that. So there
is that possibility if you look at your two day
here in nice trigger wave forming. The last time this formed,
you know, you saw a nice trajectory for a bit,
and this would bring us out into early January at
that marker. I know you've talked about three hundred, so

(17:07):
I don't think you're going to get all the way
up to four hundred, but I think three hundred or
maybe high threes is doable until later this year. So
I do like Solana overall.

Speaker 1 (17:17):
Still, So yeah, so Solana, okay, so let's let's talk
about that and go back to kind of our big three.
You've got Ethereum, you've got Solana, you've got Avalanche in
the mix. We'll even put Swee in there, because we,
of course is also taken a fairly big hit. Where
would you stay right now through this next leg? Is

(17:40):
would you rot out out of any of those right now?
In terms of those big l ones, I just.

Speaker 2 (17:47):
I would say, stay, stay, stay stay. I mean, yeah,
it's diversification. You know, we don't know exactly which one
is going to do the best. Theoretically, if the FED
ends QT this month, which may happen, you know, the
lower caps that you mentioned, like Swee would probably do
the best, but you know, we don't exactly know when
that's going to happen. So I think the versification would

(18:08):
be the biggest thing here. I think all those ones
you mentioned it definitely would would do well. I mean
I think that you know at this point, like sure,
if you're holding garbage like mean coin stuff like that
that's very high risk, sure self or tax loss harvesting,
move it into something safer. That makes the most logical sense.
But I think most people kind of would already guess.

Speaker 1 (18:29):
That, you know what I mean, Yeah, how would you,
I mean, in this kind of situation where you've got
an opportunity to take a little bit of a tax loss.
Here we are, you know, Q three, Q four rolling
into as we get into November, this would be some
of the timing in which you might take a look
at some of those Is this the time that you
would do it? Because even if even if you just

(18:51):
took a tax loss and rebought it, if you were saying, hey,
I think we're going to go up from here, but
I want to take this tax loss and then rebuy
because there's no wash, so you'd be back in the
asset and still have the tax loss benefit within that.
Would that be a strategy you might deploy or would
you go in to dry powder and wait and see

(19:12):
on the sidelines and try to redeploy that into another major,
you know, asset. What are your thoughts?

Speaker 2 (19:18):
I think the most logical thing just sell and buy
back and just take the tax. Don't make it more
complicated that it has to be, because a lot of
things are going to happen potentially quickly and you could
have quick recoveries. So I'm trying to wait for another dip.
You know, it depends like if you're holding something you
know that's bled against all the coins you just mentioned

(19:40):
just keeps going down and down. Maybe take the tax
loss harvest and convert it into something that's a little
bit more promising, a higher cap like eat, you know, Salana,
something like that. But I mean, if it's if you're
holding you know, I guess Solana, and you happen to
be down with it, which a lot of people probably
aren't even down with a lot of the ones we mentioned.
I mean, you know, just self for the tax harvest

(20:01):
buy back, you know, And I mean if it goes lower,
you could do the same thing again, I think, right,
you could just get more, even more of a tax
loss harvest. So if you did it again.

Speaker 1 (20:09):
Well you could. Yeah, if you took another one at
the same on the same asset that you would do
one now, I mean it's kind of a no loss
if you believe in the asset. That's the key. All right, guys,
there's a lot happening right here in the market. Again,
you should check out Evan's channel. I'll drop a link
down below. Make sure and check out Evan Aldo over

(20:30):
on YouTube. Evan, it was good having you on the
show again today. Thanks so much for coming in. We
appreciate it.

Speaker 2 (20:36):
Always do it to be on. Thanks so much, Paul.

Speaker 1 (20:38):
You bet all right, you guys get in on the
Diamond Circle. It's a great way to get additional content
from us. I put out an email every week that
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of where the market conditions are. And you can do
that for free, So just use the link down below,
hit me out there on X at Paul Baron. We'll
catch you next time right here on the Paul Baron Show.

(21:08):
All right, my man, were good? Yeah, all right, So
Eith is the one man you are all in on ethereum, right,