Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's get into some ETF news today. It is a
big day that will reveal some very interesting stuff. So
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As you guys know, we've been talking about this for
(00:42):
quite some time and one of the videos that we
did a couple of weeks ago was this one right here,
and it was Bullmarket Catalyst What it would take. Let
me inform you that none of those catalysts have taken place,
meaning we said these are the things that have to
happen for the market to move, and it's been almost
the exact opposite. So today I wanted to bring in,
(01:03):
of course, our friend from Gray Scale, and that is
Zach Pandel coming in head of research. How are you.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
I'm great, Paul, awesome to be with here today.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
All right, Zach, there's a lot of happening. The marks
have been very volatile, to say the least. We've seen
so much movement in the general market, and when you
look at the reasoning behind this, many people would say, well,
you know, it's og wall, it's selling, it's bitcoin kind
of repositioning. You know, you've got all these scenarios that
(01:30):
have played out within the market itself. What do you
think is the bullish short term position right now for
the markets? Now? I say short term next say sixty days? Yeah,
great question.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
Look, crypto native investors often look for crypto native explanations
for what's going on, even when what's happening in prices
is correlated to lots of other things happening in markets.
And so look what I see, Paul, is a repricing
of macro expectations over the last few months. You think
back to August, we were real optimistic about the US economy,
(02:07):
anticipating further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve today, more
caution about the labor market, about credit markets, or questions
about the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. For me, the
bull case thesis is that the reality is still pretty good. Honestly,
for Marcus, the economy is fine, the Federal Reserve is
still supportive. Within crypto, the kind of fundamental pillars for
(02:30):
demand and what's been driving this bullmarket still very much
in place. So I would say that the optimistic case
is just that markets get a little bit more confident
again about the economy and the broader market backdrop. I
think that's enough for crypto to stabilize and begin to
recover from where we are today.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
I'm looking for specific shorter catalysts, and one of the
things I'm kind of comparing this to is back to
this tweet here, and that is the activity that we've
seen with bitcoin and og whales now been selling more
bitcoin than ever before. This of course continues, I guess
that's really one of the categories that I think will
(03:09):
at least slow this market down, is if we see
that stopping. If you think about that, along with unlikely
to get clarity act in twenty twenty five, that's getting
pushed in the next sixty days. I mean, if we
were to get into a clarity regular maybe algatatory front
is the way to go here. Do you feel like
those bitcoin wallets slowing their selling and some more regulation
(03:33):
that maybe gets confirmed, do you think those would be
enough to get this market restarted.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
I do think that those would be enough, And I
think you know some of the other macro topics, but yes,
I think progress on market structured legislation on the Senate
version of the Clarity Act, and some change in the
fun flow picture is how I would would put it. Look,
bitcoin og whales as you characterize them, have been selling
really since the ETFs launched in jail when you're twenty
(04:00):
twenty four, but price has been up since then, and
that's because there's been a ready buyer on the other end,
which is the ETFs. And so I think what you
need to see is that ETF bid come back into
the market. That would be confirmation that we've reached a
bottom more a positive catalyst into the end of the year.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
Well, you also look at this percentage of supply right
now held by public companies. This of course is flattened
for Bitcoin, but if it's increased dramatically for Ethereum and
even Solana. When you look at that both on Bitcoin
EA Solana dats and you kind of compare where the
market is right now, what would you say right now
(04:37):
would be the winning factor here? Do you think we'll
continue to see maybe these dats softening on bitcoin or
do you think that we get more of a position
on bitcoin in the future.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
I think that there will be a lasting role for
these types of companies that are holding crypto on balance
sheet and finding additional ways to get value out of them,
either through changing their capital structure, their liabilities, or doing
something on the asset side of the balance sheet. So
you know, we're focused on ETF ETP products for our investors.
(05:11):
I think digital asset trageries are another way to get
crypto exposure in a portfolio, and I think that they
will be a lasting part of the ecosystem. You know,
there's always ups and downs in demand for these vehicles,
and we're at a you know, we're at waning a
point at this very moment, but I think appetite could
come right back. As equity market says, stabilize, all.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
Right, let's move on to kind of the news of
the day, and that of course is your launch of
the XRP ETF that you guys have going on. Obviously,
g sol already launched for you guys, and of course
you have growth staking rewards of almost seven and quarter
percent there. When you look at Solana and XRP, especially
on the ETF performance, how do you think these play out? Now?
(05:54):
You're going to have competing ETFs which are very competitive
out there in the market space right now. ETFs between
Soul and XRP, how do you think this play out
compared to market cap?
Speaker 3 (06:04):
Well?
Speaker 2 (06:05):
Absolutely, you know, both both products major parts of the
crypto eCos to large liquid assets with enthusiastic investor bases.
I see them as a bit different and you know,
different flavors for investors to consider and ideally build a
portfolio of crypto assets that includes multiple things, usually starting
with Bitcoin, but these smart contract platforms and other assets
(06:28):
included in that as well. You know, XRP a battle
tested blockchain originally designed for payments use cases but broadening
to other use cases today one of the largest and
most liquid assets in crypto. I think there will be
significant demand for these ETF products, as we've seen with
the Salana and Ethereum ETF products as well. You know,
(06:52):
our view at Grayscale is that investors need digital assets
in diversified portfolios to have the best risk adjusted returns
over time, especially given the macro risk that investor is facing.
And all of these assets can be held together, you know,
in different flavors depending on investor preferences to build that
(07:13):
crypto allocation. We are delighted to be able to broaden
the access to these assets with new ETF products like this.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Well, we've seen some pretty successful launches so far with
the xrp ets, with Canary obviously Bitwise launching last week.
This is the thing that I'm kind of curious about
because these two I believe at some point institutional capital
they probably will deploy into both, but they're probably going
to have a preference one or the other. You have both,
(07:41):
what do you think will happen right.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
Well, as you know, Paul, we've talked about this before.
It's like deciding between my children. When I look at
these large assets, look, I like to encourage institutional investors to,
you know, start from the top, begin with Bitcoin, the
largest most liquid asset that has the most clear macro
use case, and then the rest of these assets. They're
all unlocking types of innovations in digital finance, and what
(08:06):
we want to think about is where are those uses
stable coins, tokenized assets, prediction markets, DeFi, Where is that
being built out? And the asset that you want to
own is the thing that's becoming the platform for those
digital finance innovations. Ethereum was the starter and the leader
of this process, and so that's a natural first step
(08:29):
to take is with Ethereum, and then the rest of
these assets are all competing for a piece of that,
and I think all of them will play role. All
of them already play a role today in different aspects
of this with stable coins or DeFi, et cetera. We
want to figure out which ones are going to be
the biggest platforms over time. It's going to be an
intense race. I assure you that we're in the next
five to ten years.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
Well, listen, one of the things that would give you
an uneven advantage in this intense race is getting into
staking on XRP. I'm looking at Doppler fine ants. They
continue to kind of drive the position right here, and
it's difficult for an XRP holder, especially native asset, to
go out in steak. It's cumbersome to get it done
(09:11):
until that starts to loosen up. Imagine if you had
a stake opportunity within an ETF, I mean literally just
right there, easy click, easy access for millions and millions
of institutional and retail investors to stake their well, have
stake XRP, I should say, exposure to it. Wouldn't that
be a good product?
Speaker 2 (09:29):
Don't you think we are actively looking at all of
these things? And I'm delighted to say that we began
the process of staking in US listed ETFs with our
ethereum products in October, and the Treasury and IRS have
now given more detailed guidance about the treatment of these products.
So I think you will see much more staking activity
(09:50):
in ETF crypto ETFs. Paul, I think you're exactly right.
The best thing of exeter experience is to have the
token itself, but also any additional rewards that may be
delivering in native form. So we want to be able
to deliver that to investors, you know, with the restrictions
of you know, having a successful risk managed at ETF.
(10:11):
We think that we'll be able to do that in
most cases. We've begun that on Ethereum gray Scale, the
only asset manager providing steak to THEEUM products today. We've
done that on Solana. I think it will be expanding
to many of our other stakable assets over time.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
Well, you've got some a lot of activity right now
when you look at XRP and DeFi in general, Firelight
launching December third, their new whole Firelight protocol gets ready
to go live. We'll see a lot of activity around this,
which could be indicative of driving more interest I think
for the investor community, because obviously as we see steaking
(10:49):
become a big factors it has it. Do you feel
like that's been one of the driving factors for what
you guys have done with GSOL in terms of the
staking component. Has that investor said?
Speaker 2 (10:59):
This is one of the reasons one hundred percent Staking
is an important driver from institutional interest. They are laser
focused on the ability to capture these reward rates on
top of stakable tokens, and that's a key differentiator of
the as you know, proof of steak assets versus proof
of work based bitcoin and is a huge part of
(11:21):
the conversation with institutional investers. They are looking for that yield,
and on some of these protocols it's quite substantial seven
percent plus on Solana. So has absolutely been a driver
of demand for those ETF products. I think that will
continue for all the proof of steak networks as we
stand up more of than in ETF structures.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
Yeah, for anybody that's asset managers, all you have to
do is look at this Doppler chart right here. In
terms of demand, it's there for sure. Let's get on
to the additional announcement that you guys have for today,
and that of course is the fact that you're launching
another big ETF today, which one is that.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
That is our g dog doge coin g d o
G doge coin ETF. Look, talking about doge coin can
but bring a smile to my face.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
You know.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
It is a kind of fascinating project within within crypto,
and people have different ways for thinking about it. I
think of it as tokenized Internet culture. You know that
that memes are part of Internet culture, and crypto is
the financial layer of the Internet, and so having one
of these assets a kind of a meme that is
(12:30):
designed to make you smile essentially be available in an ATF.
I think is wonderful. Of course, investors should consider, you know,
how do you think about putting all these assets into
a portfolio? You know which ones are likely to make
the best risk adjusted returns over time. And we have
all of these thoughtful conversations with with investors. But you know,
dogecoin and memes in general are a part of crypto,
(12:54):
a part of the Internet, and a part of culture
now I think will remain the case, and I think
it is absolutely the right thing to have an ETF
that provides access to the largest of these available to
US investors. We're also thrilled to bring that product to
market today.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
Man, I'm gonna have to get one of these shirts
because I like the G dog. I like the g
for sure. It's a good tacker, all right. So when
you look at institutional capital, do they care about something
like a doged? Are they in there playing in these
kind of ETF Do you think they will.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
Be they care? In the sense that everyone is going
through a process of learning about crypto, myself included. It's
really a never ending journey, and we have these conversations.
You know, how do I think about this asset, how
is it built, what is it exactly? And I think
that therefore an institutional level, I absolutely think there will
be a trading interest in these structures, you know, for
(13:49):
a shorter term oriented investors. Absolutely there will be that
type of interest. Look, I think there are probably other
assets Bitcoin, Theoreum, Salona, We've talked about some of them,
many others on the list that naturally go together in
building an institutional long horizon portfolio. But I think that
there will be substantial demand for doge coin as a
(14:10):
trading instrument, and it will have some institutional engagement as well.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
Well. One thing to consider and I think I look
at it, you know, from a meme standpoint, I wonder
if what we saw with Elon, Elon's kind of a
double edged sword. Sometimes he can hurt you, sometimes he
can help you. And when I think of crypto communities,
do you think what his efforts were in general, do
you think the doge efforts that Elon was trying to
(14:36):
make actually hurt the concept of the of the coin itself,
of the token itself.
Speaker 2 (14:44):
I think it brought attention to it. Look, dogecoin has
the right attitude. I think if this is designed to
make people happy, to make people smile, to think about
community and generosity and these types of concepts is absolutely
thing I can support. Of course, it's had volatility in
the past, driven by you know, particularly visible people like
(15:08):
Elon must talking about this asset, and I anticipate that
some things like that will continue over time, and you know,
great scale investors. The conversation that we have with them
is to think about the risks of any asset in crypto.
Dogecoin has a higher risk profile than bitcoin, it has
different use case, and you're gonna want to think about
(15:29):
constructing a portfolio in a different way when you're talking
about each of these different assets. And I think, frankly
investors understand that pretty well. They don't even need me
to say it. But we do provide, of course, these
kind of risk management conversations regularly as well.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
Well. Listen, everybody's going to be watching this the CTF launch,
because if this one does well, then there's one more
I think that should be in consideration, of course, that
is Penga. I mean here you got congressmen. Simmons of
course goes out and plays around everybody else in this
is a congressman that presented the NFT bill out there,
(16:03):
So this isn't just some random congressman. He understands this
digital asset market. But he was able to generate some
immediate impact on what happened right here. And of course
Luca even commented right there, ten thousand likes, no problem
coming right up, and then of course it gets it
changes his avatar there. Do you think pengu is the
(16:25):
new Doge? Do they have a shot at maybe becoming
that cultural icon like Doze did in our previous runs.
Speaker 2 (16:33):
Look, look, I think both of them have achieved a
kind of status as a meme, thought tokenize to culture
in the context of crypto markets. And that's incredible to see.
And honestly, I love this stuff from a personal level.
I find it incredibly fun NFTs and memes. You know,
(16:54):
you know, as an ascid manager, you know, we need
to make sure that we also provide guidance about how
to think about these things in the context of the portfolio.
And I can't say that the penguin or the dog,
I know with confidence, is going to be a higher
market value in the in the fullness of time. What
I can say is memes are not going anywhere. Yeah,
these should be thought of as tokenized culture, and you know,
(17:15):
don't don't count these things out as being real, big,
valuable assets in the fullness of time. You know, with
the caveat that it's tough to prick the right one.
You're kind of making a judgment on cultural things in
the same way as investing in fine art, et cetera.
I'm sure not everyone will love the comparison of doj
Quin and Pengo to fine art, but that is how
I think about it. I think it's a reasonab way
(17:36):
to think about it. It's an element of our culture today.
I think it's great to see the success of these
assets have had.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
Well one thing for pengu we did a video with
Luca not too long ago, and yeah, of course Luca
being Luca, says, hey, we're gonna flip. We're gonna flip
dose one day. But I think the point that Luca
was getting at and he's a you know, listen, this
is one of the best marketers out there. I would
call him the mister Beast of crypto in terms of
(18:03):
him being able to getting really where that community should be.
And that's something that is of value because in the
Dose community, not saying that they don't have a face
other than Elon. I guess you could kind of call
that the face of Dose. But in reality, you've got
someone like Luca who's really been very successful in marketing
and including figitals, you know, the physical aspect. They've done
(18:26):
things Walmart, many others. That starts to get investors looking
at it a little bit differently than just a meme
token or a meme ETF that I think has an
opportunity to really be maybe next level. So we'll see.
If we get an ETF for pingu I'd.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Say you can probably count on it in sunshape or form.
And he is a builder. It's been fun to watch
that story. We have a couple of these penguins at
my house for sure. Yeah, And you know, I think
you will see more of these types of products brought
to market to the extent that they're is demand. I
think likely with the penguins, there will be enough demand
(19:05):
to see it in the ETF.
Speaker 1 (19:06):
I want to jump over to a couple other things
before we get out of here, and that is talking
about what's happening in the markets dramatically around privacy tokens
and also this most recent issue that happened with cloud flair,
and I want your opinion on this. Obviously, as an
asset manager you probably get questions around this all the time.
I'm going to go to a clip because this shows
a little bit about what happened with the cloud Flare outage.
(19:28):
Take a look, say, once in a lifetime internet disaster
just happened for the third time this year.
Speaker 4 (19:34):
Whether it's this outage. Recently, Amazon Web Services they had
an issue. Microsoft Azure had an issue.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
Correct me if I'm wrong here, because a cloud strike
or crowd strike, things are getting bad.
Speaker 4 (19:47):
The smart automations or AI built into these things. It failed,
not because anyone is under attack, but because complex systems
can and do fail.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
These are supposed to be the big gatekeepers.
Speaker 4 (19:59):
An thirty year old highway. The potholes are shutting to
show up.
Speaker 2 (20:03):
We are moving into the holiday season, is the top
time for cybercrime to come after consumers.
Speaker 1 (20:09):
Well, David, on that positive note.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
Uptime, this is really really important, this one hundred percent uptime,
very very very important. A dozen clients working on this thing.
There's thousands of nodes running this thing. Wall Street demands decentralization.
There are only so many decentralized systems that can exist
and have the security to support trillion dollar asset classes.
(20:32):
This speaks to them all right.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
So the point there being that cloud flare centralized and
most of our infrastructure is centralized versus decentralized that we
already have seen within the Ethereum network and others that
are out there doing a very good job on decentralization.
Is this an important factor to institutional investors? Do you
think they are concerned with understanding that the decentralized mechanism
(20:59):
is really the future of where all of tech is going.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
Absolutely, this is something that I'm glad you played this
clip and a very important issue, you know. I think
crypto shows another way to set up these systems that
has a greater resilience in different scenarios, and these can
be technical, computer science, infrastructure related issues and also macroeconomic
issues that it creates resilience against. I think the other element,
(21:25):
you know, for being frank, is that you crypto shares
some of these vulnerabilities to you know, cloud based services
as well. Not everything is equally decentralized with industry, and
I think it's also keep pushing in that direction to
keep focused on long term resilience and reduce these dependencies
so that it can be a strong as possible alternative
(21:46):
to these traditional systems.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
Well, last question, and it is around privacy tokens. You
see the run up right here that we're showing with
z cash, which was trading back in September. Come on, guys,
this is about nine er and thirteen million, and of
course just exploding onto the scene over ten billion now.
And if you compare that to a handful of other
(22:09):
top ten, top fifteen blockchains, and I would include Swee
and even avalanche in this First of all, do you
think this is just a fad rotation? What is your
theory around why what we're seeing within privacy tokens has
exploded the market so much here recently.
Speaker 2 (22:28):
I really think it is a natural part of the
maturation of the industry. When you look at public blockchain technology,
it has come so far and a lot of things
have been solved or at least have gone a long
way to being solved. Security related issues, scaling related issues, increasingly,
interoperability related issues. Privacy is a big open space in
(22:51):
my view. It is like the most obvious missing element
that needs the most development work over the next several years,
and so I think it's just the time to tackle
this challenging issue of privacy. I think this theme is
absolutely not going anywhere, and you know, credit to Grayscale
for being on top of some of these themes for
a while. We offer a z cash trust for accredited
(23:15):
investors today, and I think there will be a lot
of interest in z cash as well as other privacy
technologies over time.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
Interesting. Well, okay, last point I want to get on,
and that is because this is I think is an
important topic as to how institutional investors move and analyze
the market in general, like this, is this a risk
on environment in general? I'm looking currently at the amount
of money that's flowing into the market right here. We're
talking about VC money. If you look in October three
(23:45):
point eight seven billion coming into the market, and it
seems to be climbing. Obviously we don't have the November
numbers yet, but clearly an up trend over what we
saw was a downtrend. So does this give the market
some you know confidence in the sense that there's a
lot of money coming in? You know, as we start
to see these markets move like this, especially with regulatory
(24:08):
frameworks that are now in line, is that what you
think investors are getting more comfortable.
Speaker 2 (24:13):
With longer term Anyone with a longer term perspective VC investors, builders,
business operators, feels optimistic about where crypto is today, and
you know, we include it's really difficult to kind of
look broadly at the industry and not feel great about
where the arrows are pointed over the short run. You know,
there's lots of things can affect markets, like Federal Reserve meetings,
(24:37):
But that chart, I think speaks exactly to that longer
term confidence. There is a long way to go, a
lot to build, and a very bright future for these
assets and the technology in the future, and these investors
are making that type of long term bet and we
would encourage people to try to think about it in
that way, although we're happy to help try to navigate
(24:58):
the short term ups and downs as well.
Speaker 1 (25:00):
Understood. Zach Pandele coming in from Grayscale. Great to have
you on the show. Thanks for stopping in.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
Always a pleasure.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
Paul, thank you, you bet. Good luck to you and
your team on the two ETF launches today, so it'd
be good. Hey, you guys know what to do if
you're not in the diamond circle. Make sure and get
in on that. You can do that by just clicking
the link down below. It's a free group that you
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will like it. We send out an email each week.
I do an analysis within that gives you guys some
(25:29):
insights onto where the market is going. And of course
hit me out there on x app Paul Baron. We'll
catch you next time right here on The Paul Baron Show.