Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is the Retirement Solution podcast with financial advisor John Hicks,
founder of Jayhagen Capital.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Glad to have you here with us on the Retirement
Solution with financial advisor John Hicks, who is ready to
share some knowledge and information with you. When it comes
to the thing that I appreciate is what a nerd
you are at all times.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
Ron, I love that.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
I love the nerd, the inner nerd that lives forever
and ever on in your heart. If you ever see
John on a beach vacation, trust that he will have
I'm not kidding at least three or four books about
economics or finance in his beach bag.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
That's what he takes to relax by.
Speaker 4 (00:36):
There is sad truth today.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
I love it though I need people like this in
my life.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
We all do, because it's getting more and more complicated
to figure out financial circumstances. And then President Trump the
White House administration obviously making a lot of moves, and
we've been talking about things like tariffs and other words,
other ideas that just haven't been part of our conversation.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
And you like to help people really understan and what's
going on.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
So what's happening with the market and how current economic
could affect our bottom line, particularly with folks that are
close to or just getting have just recently retired.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
That's what I wanted to ask you about in.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
This conversation right now, because if you look at the
stock market since nineteen twenty eight, which is right before
the Great Depression, annualized returns for the S and P
five hundred have been nine point eight percent. Goldman Sachs, however,
is now forecasting that number over the next ten years
will go down to three point one percent. And these
(01:36):
next ten years are obviously vital for the group of
people that's going to retire, the new retirees over this
next ten years. John, So what do we need to
be thinking about then in this space with these kinds
of numbers, what's the danger of a low or negative
return for retirees in their early years of retirement.
Speaker 4 (01:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (01:53):
So it's it's really interesting because I know that I
do the same thing, you know, when I'm looking at
evaluating investments. So it's kind of like, hey, you know
what's done real well, let's look at you know, one year,
five year, ten year numbers, whatever it is. And then
of course you just kind of want to look in general,
if the average retirement may last between twenty and thirty years,
what would kind of be the expectation over a twenty
(02:14):
or thirty year period, Right? So I think a lot
of us do that. That's not complicated. We look at
those four to one case statements or our roths or
our iras and say, hey, you know, how did this
one investment do versus the other? Well, that Fidelity fund
did great, but those American funds did terrible. Why we
try to figure it out? The amazing thing is is
that what we've had, we've had a really good twelve
to fifteen year run in the markets. And so when
(02:36):
that happens, is that a bad thing? No, it's great,
especially if we've been in the market. You know, it's
a really really good thing. But what does that mean though?
What does that typically mean? And of course Goldman Sachs
came out with a study and actually it's supported by
the Stern School at NYU. No, this is the typically
the information I look at. I kind of want the
academic version to kind of get a gauge of things.
(02:57):
So when you look back, because this was done since
nineteen twenty eight, the Goldman information, when you look back
at the Stern Business School does the same thing.
Speaker 4 (03:06):
It went back for the same period of time.
Speaker 5 (03:08):
And what I wanted to know, number one, what happens
when you do have a good ripperer in period? You know,
does that mean that the market falls after that? You know,
if it's going to average a certain amount, how does
that typically happen? And what we've seen in the Stern
School verify this. So since nineteen twenty eight, there have
been seven ten year periods. So when you think about that,
seven ten year periods with the stock market did average
(03:31):
three percent or less? Now, for most of us that
are listening to the show, one of them is very apparent.
Speaker 4 (03:37):
They called it the Lost decade.
Speaker 5 (03:39):
That was after you know, of course Reagan did his
tax cuts in the eighties. Bush came in in the
very tail end and early of the eighties, early part
of the nineties, and then we had the Persian Gulf War.
But then from that point in time, when Bill Clinton
won the market because of the tax cuts of Reagan,
because of the advent of the Internet, we had all
this dot com stuff, all of this technology that was
(04:01):
being developed. We had the market go crazy up. It
went from nineteen ninety two all the way to nineteen
ninety nine, almost straight up. It was kind of crazy.
During that period of time. The stock market averaged nearly
twenty percent a year over that period, which was wild unbelievable,
one of the greatest periods we've ever seen in modern history. Now,
what happened, though, Now it didn't have to necessarily fall
(04:23):
apart the way that it did. But if we all recall,
nineteen ninety nine was kind of the top. In two thousand,
things started going a little weird. So when the stock
market started going down, why well, because they started saying, well,
things like petspetroocks, dot Com shouldn't be worth a million
dollars or four in a million, I want I know,
and they started paying it to people started paying attention.
(04:45):
It's like, whoa, wha, what do you mean that that
company has never made any money, but it's trading at
a really expensive evaluation.
Speaker 4 (04:52):
So the point of this is, guys.
Speaker 5 (04:54):
Is that when the market went oh so far up,
it fell apart. And of course we did not have
fed intervention during that period of time. We had not
started printing money to throw at the market. We learned
that later, okay, But during that period the market went
down for three straight years two thousand, two thousand and one.
In two thousand and two, the market got punched in
the face for three straight years, nothing but carnage red
(05:16):
ink every single month, every time you looked at it.
You had a million dollars by the end of it.
If you had had just the SMP, you'd have been
down over fifty percent if you had owned any part
of the Nasdaq, which right now we know is the
technology index. That's what everyone wants, that's the one that's
gone so gangbusters. That's the one that Elon Musk, you know,
promotes in all these things. Well, guys, it lost eighty
(05:37):
percent from the very top in nineteen ninety nine, or
really the very beginning of two thousand, all the way
to the bottom in two thousand and two. So why
am I saying this? Because when we had that riproaring
time in the nineties, that two thousand to two thousand
and nine, the stock market averaged literally zero, actually it
lost a little bit when you put inflation, and it
lost three percent a year.
Speaker 4 (05:58):
Okay, So why am I saying this?
Speaker 5 (06:00):
Because we've had a really good ten to twelve year period.
Right now we're sitting on one right now, we have
good double digit returns.
Speaker 4 (06:06):
Everything looks really good.
Speaker 5 (06:07):
But this Goldman report makes me nervous because as a
financial advisor, and one of the things that I'm trying
to do is try to figure out, Hey, what is
a real rate of return that my client can get,
or that I can get for that matter. What's a
real rate return that we can get that is not
taking too much risk? What's an attractive rate of return?
And Goldman comes out and says three point one The
Stern study said one point nine percent after inflation adjustments. So, guys,
(06:33):
here's my question. When we're thinking about those portfolios, what
do we have in our mind? Is the rate of
return that we feel that we can get. If we have, oh,
we're probably going to average ten percent for the next decade.
If that's the first decade of your retirement, maybe think
about that, Maybe get a second set of eyes on that,
maybe get a second opinion. Here's the reason why, because
there are ways, There are ways right now today where
(06:54):
you can lock in some really good returns like five
and a half percent or six percent percent. The security
on the downside right when you can lock that in
for a decade. So the question is how much risk
do we really want right now? Because what if the
market has done really well, it doesn't fall apart, it
just averages two to three percent a year for the
next decade. Are you still going to be able to
(07:16):
hit your retirement goals right now? Some people, if they
have a really good strategy, they might be able to.
They still still could have no problems. Others of us
did say, Man, I'd like to retire maybe a little
bit early instead of retiring at sixty five, Maybe you
want to retire at sixty three. Well, that means that
there's more stress on that portfolio in the very beginning now.
Others of us, we want to also front load retirement.
(07:37):
They say, hey, man, John, when I retire, I don't
want to just go and help chill out and you know,
watch Outlander reruns on Netflix with my wife. That's fine
and all, but really, man, I want to do something else,
Like we want to go traveling, We want to go
see the grandkids more often, we want to I want
to go fishing. She wants to go shopping, all these things.
And they said, no, that's going to cost more money
(07:58):
in the beginning part of retirement. But we're not going
to be doing all that you know after year ten
or twelve or thirteen. So man, we want to front
load that retirement. We want to do all that fun
stuff when we're the youngest and the healthiest. By the way, guys,
I love that. I love that philosophy. I want you
to have the most fun that you can have when
you're the youngest and the healthiest and the most able
to do it. I just don't want you running out
(08:19):
of money in the end, right, of course, But that's
a different stress on a portfolio. If the market only
averages two to three percent and we still have all
the volatility, right, all of the tariff talks, all of
the international diplomacy talks, all of our government's broke talks,
all of these things. If all these things keep the
market going up and down and up and down, we
could lose, right. So the one thing we have to
(08:40):
understand is what are the assumptions you're using in your portfolio.
If they're eight, nine, ten percent for the next five
to six years, it's a possibility that that could be
the case. Here's why I'm saying that probably won't be
the case, because we're going to have inflation that goes
along with all of these good numbers. If we have
really good numbers, the Fed cannot reduce interest rates. They cannot,
(09:01):
We cannot afford to reduce interest rates, or we'll be
paying nine dollars for a pound to ground beef instead
of four dollars and fifty cents. We'll be paying nine
dollars for a twelve pack of eggs instead of four bucks.
Speaker 4 (09:12):
No joke. That's the way it goes.
Speaker 5 (09:14):
Because as prices increase, then so do typically stocks, So
we have to understand that. So it's really important to understand, well,
you have to understand your protections. So you have to
then understand what kind of rates of return we can
get because that will dictate how much income we can
pull from that portfolio. And if you think about it,
making sure you're still holding on to what you get
and making sure you can pull an income. Those are
(09:36):
literally that those two combined are the gospel of retirement.
That's all it comes down to. Protect what you got,
make sure you can't lose it all, and make sure
you can live off an income. So what we're going
to see over the next decade may not be as
good as we hope. So hether what I would say,
everyone out there know where their protections are and really
understand your assumptions. I know people out there that have
(09:57):
gotten fourteen to fifteen percent over the last decade on
their funds.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
Have they really have?
Speaker 5 (10:01):
But they've been relying on those magnificent seven you know, Amazon, Apple, Google, Nvidia,
all these great companies that frankly, they've kind of already
done their run. The question is are they going to
still be able to make tons of money in this
new era?
Speaker 4 (10:14):
Maybe, but maybe not.
Speaker 5 (10:16):
It could be the fact that China has been slow
playing this whole thing, hiding all this technology they really
do have, whether they stole it from us or not,
does it matter if they still have it and they're
going to be able to do things for a fraction
of our cost, and we could see the market go
down a lot more so. The understanding is if you're
not sure where your protections are, and if you don't
know really what your assumptions are built on for your portfolio, guys,
(10:37):
that is the number one most important part of looking
at a retirement plan. Do you have a plan or
do you just have a statement? There's a big difference
between the two.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
You talk about protections understanding your assumptions. I would add
a third to that, knowing what your opportunities are, because
absolutely that is an ever moving EBB and flowing situation,
and so understanding current opportunities with higher interest rates, with inflation,
with market volatility, there is allways opportunities.
Speaker 3 (11:05):
So understanding what those are for you.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Specifically is obviously a very vital part of a healthy
retirement portfolio. Obviously opportunities that you are ready to show
with and for people.
Speaker 3 (11:17):
So if you have questions about.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
This seeking opportunities no matter what the market's doing, no
matter what tariffs are implying on your savings and investments,
no matter what kind of risk is out there, let's
get to work helping you figure these things out within
your savings portfolio customized plan for you, visit us at
retirement solutionshow dot com. We also have links posted in
(11:38):
the show notes again our website, Retirement solutionshow dot com.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
Thanks for listening to the Retirement Solution Podcast with John Hicks.
Begin the conversation about your savings plan with John and
the team at Jayhagen Capital by visiting Retirement Solution Radio
dot com. Be sure to listen to John's radio show
the Retirement Solution Saturdays at eight am and Sundays at
one am on NewsRadio eight forty whas.
Speaker 6 (12:04):
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(12:26):
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