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January 14, 2025 12 mins
Retirement can be a challenging financial journey, especially with market volatility and changing administrations as Trump is set to begin his second term. In this episode, Jon Hicks discusses that many investors struggle with timing the market, often missing out on significant gains. Instead of focusing on short-term fluctuations, Jon emphasizes why it’s crucial to develop a long-term strategy that includes understanding protection and income streams. Jon explains why diversification and a balanced approach to both safety and growth are essential for those nearing retirement. Visit RetirementSolutionShow.com to begin building your unique retirement plan today!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is the Retirement Solution Podcast with financial advisor John Hicks,
founder of jay Hagen Capital.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
We're glad to have you here with us alongside financial
advisor John Hicks, founder of jay Hagen Capital. You can
find us anytime at Retirement solutionshow dot com or just
click on the links we've got posted in the show
notes to market, to market to buy. Hopefully we'll be
a big fat retirement pig. Goal of every saver, any
retirement retirement pig, big fat retirement pig, so we all

(00:30):
want have in the bank by the time that we
get to the age that is calling it quits.

Speaker 3 (00:36):
I like pigs so much better than nest egg. Do
you want to start Let's let's trade.

Speaker 4 (00:41):
Sausage, bacon, hamhock I mean tell me, I mean even
just hamhocks and green beans.

Speaker 3 (00:46):
Change it forever, color green. Do anything with a nest
don't come out. I mean, it's not a little porkin.

Speaker 2 (00:51):
Yeah, were starting on something general, We're on or something here.

Speaker 3 (00:56):
Hey, But before we.

Speaker 4 (00:57):
Get any further, no, I have to make I have
now gone this far into the new year, and I
have to have to make an honest statement.

Speaker 3 (01:05):
I did something horrible this year this year already, or
last year.

Speaker 4 (01:10):
Technically was towards the end of last year. I'm now realizing,
with shame, with shame, what happened. We did not mail
out a single Christmas card from our family. We received
so many, dozens, hundreds of Christmas cards, we did not
send out a singular one. Why here's the sad truth.

(01:35):
We had set them aside. We had started addressing envelopes,
We had everything going. The kids were helping out, was great,
they were stamping, and we set them in an area
of the kitchen that we had cleaned up right after Thanksgiving,
and they got shoved in a cabinet.

Speaker 3 (01:53):
So we did not realize that. And you thought Neil
hadropped him off.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Neil thought you had dropped them off at the post office,
and there they sat.

Speaker 3 (01:59):
For We did not send out Did you mail them one?
Not yet.

Speaker 4 (02:05):
I just literally discovered them when we got back from
Hilton Head and we.

Speaker 3 (02:09):
Were cleaning out, was putting back this.

Speaker 4 (02:12):
You know, you never you never really cater people in
your house at off and except for the holidays. So
we pull this drawer out because this is where we
keep you know, the big you know, turkey roaster thing.
But that is where our help could be me, could
be someone We're just gonna call them the help. But
all of the all of the Christmas cards, so.

Speaker 3 (02:31):
So I'm not as scroogey as it seeming.

Speaker 4 (02:34):
Christmas card for me, I am just gonna straight up say,
I'm so sorry. I didn't I didn't mean to ba
humbug everybody, huh, but I did it. And here's the
greatest thing about a new year, it's a new start,
is I'm asking for forgiveness right out.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
Of the gate. Right out of the gate.

Speaker 4 (02:53):
I think we're gonna have a new administration that we're
going to frankly have to suck a few things up
as well.

Speaker 3 (02:58):
So hey, here we go, all right, Well, for the
course this.

Speaker 2 (03:02):
Year, thinking about the new administration, a lot of people
have thoughts what good bad are and different of what
I will see what happened in the market because of
the administration. So there was actually an interesting conversation that
happened between two market analysts recently on CNBC. One is
warning this ball market is running out of steam, while
the other one is saying, okay, so what do you

(03:23):
expect people to do about it? So here's a little
bit of that conversation.

Speaker 5 (03:26):
But if you look at this ball market technically, it
looks very tired. The volumes have dropped off significantly since
the election, which is kind of bizarre. I just think
we need a reset. It's never a straight line.

Speaker 3 (03:37):
But most of your clients aren't very good at timing.

Speaker 5 (03:40):
And I say that not because they're your clients, because
they're in the market.

Speaker 3 (03:43):
Most people aren't very good at timing as well.

Speaker 5 (03:45):
So you're asking people to.

Speaker 6 (03:47):
Stick with you at the moment because you're overwaiting, nervous,
and then next three months or so get out and
then just find the.

Speaker 3 (03:52):
Right bottom and get back in again.

Speaker 5 (03:54):
That's notoriously almost impossible.

Speaker 2 (03:56):
We have the new administration, it's notoriously impossible to time
the market. A lot of investors DIY investors. We just
don't have We had full time jobs, we have families
that got stuff going on. We don't do this.

Speaker 3 (04:06):
For that.

Speaker 4 (04:06):
That was a great That was a great exchange. That
was a great exchange because there was a few things
that they said there that you know, you kind of
have to understand the industry, you kind of know where
things go.

Speaker 3 (04:14):
Right.

Speaker 4 (04:14):
So the election happened November twentieth. Since November twenty through
the end of the year, the market was down. The
first couple of days, the market was hugely up basically
I guess fifty whatever percent of the population that wanted
the new change, they felt that way. They felt euphoric
about the situation. But then we had what we typically have.
We typically have just a little bit of resilience. Right,

(04:37):
Everyone's starting to figure out what is this really going
to mean? What's gonna happen with taxes, what's gonna happen
with deportation, what's gonna happen with l L law, what's
gonna happen with this, What's gonna happen with that, What's
going to happen with all these social services? The government
was looking at shut down right because they didn't have
enough the budget structure. All these things were happening in festering,
and it caused the market to be unbelievably volatile. As
a matter of fact, when you look at the VICS index,

(04:57):
which is the volatility index, its spy over eighty percent
two different days in the very beginning of December. Unbelievable.
We don't typically see that. Does it happen from time
to time? Sure, once every four or five years, we'll
see something crazy happen, like a war breakout or an
unforeseen bombing or a coronavirus type of thing. But we

(05:20):
saw it happen twice in December. Now, the interesting thing
about here is that these two gentlemen said two different things.
When said reduced volumes. Eh, it's the end of the
year that we've had a huge run up in the
market up until now. We probably just had some people
pulling the foot off of the accelerator just a little bit.
It's probably why he said, is a little bit tired.

Speaker 3 (05:41):
Now.

Speaker 4 (05:41):
The other side of that was, hold on, hold on,
hold on. You think that this market's getting tired, you
think that the bull market may not be able to sustain.

Speaker 3 (05:49):
What would you expect people to do?

Speaker 4 (05:50):
You know, pull out, wait a little bit of time,
earn a couple bucks on their bank account in money market,
and then get back in. And he was talking about
timing ladies and gentlemen. This is the classic where it's
all or none, and I completely disagree with this entire conversation.
If you're looking at you have to do either one
thing or another.

Speaker 3 (06:09):
Never.

Speaker 4 (06:09):
This is why the most paramount thing of understanding finances
is how are you going to behave over the long run,
because the days, the weeks, the moments, those you don't
even pay attention to when you look at the broader
scheme of things. And I'm not saying the market always
goes up. There are absolutely periods of the time when
the market goes down and it's an absolute dog. I

(06:32):
don't know if we're going to have that. Here's what
I would say. Does it look like the bull market
is a little long in the tooth?

Speaker 3 (06:38):
Yes?

Speaker 4 (06:38):
What does that mean? Does it mean we should jump out?
Absolutely not. It means that we hunkered down on those
five things I talk about every single week on the show.
Number One, understand where your safety nets are right. Number
one is protection? How much of your money is protected?
If all your money is in money market earning four
point five percent or whatever the current going rate is, are.

Speaker 3 (06:57):
You happy about that? Maybe?

Speaker 4 (06:59):
Have you missed out on a twenty five to thirty
percent market run this year?

Speaker 3 (07:02):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (07:03):
But the question is are you okay with that? If
you're okay with that type of comfort, then my question
would be, well, if you have four and a half
with no risk, would you maybe like to have six,
seven or eight or nine percent with no risk because
those currently exist. Right, It's just a choice. It's something
you have to choose. And on the other side, when
you're looking at I don't want all that safety. I
want the opportunity to make some money. Well good, because

(07:25):
you're in my camp. I am very cautiously opportunistic about
what this new administration may be able to do. Now,
is it going to come with all of the volatility,
all the market issues, all of the nonsense that we
saw four years ago or I guess eight years ago
in the beginning of it. Yeah, guys, tweets move a market. Now,
they just don't call them tweets, to call them xes,

(07:47):
whatever they call them. I mean, all my exes live
in Texas. I don't I can't call it an ex.
I think we're always going to call it a tweet.
It's like it's like when Prince is the artist formerly
known as Prince the.

Speaker 3 (08:00):
The thing formerly known as a tweet.

Speaker 4 (08:02):
I think that that's going to cause markets to move,
and so you have to be resilient and understand how
is your money protected? Because at the end of the day,
I generally feel that our country is going to be
in a better position over the next future than it
maybe has been since the coronavirus. Let's be straight up,
and that's not based on a presidency. It's not based
on who's previously in office. We had a lot of

(08:23):
weird stuff. We've had a lot of things that I
think we're not truly told to with the American citizens,
and I think that we may get to the root
of it. Some of the things we may not want
to know the truth, but we're going to find them out,
I think. But at the end of the day, I
think generally, once we get all this nonsense behind this,
all this polarization of our country, America is a very
resilient country. And everyone that has always thought we've already

(08:46):
run our course, they always end up wrong in the end, right,
So I generally feel over the long run, the stock
market is going to be an attractive place to put
some of our money as we get closer to retirement.
We don't know if it's going to be a good
ten years or a bad ten yure You do not
have to look that far back where there was literally
ten years in the stock market where it made not
one single dollar, not one That wasn't that long ago.

(09:08):
Those between nineteen ninety nine and two thousand and nine.
There's a lot of people to retire to the very
beginning of that that frankly are still maybe having to
work today, and that's because of this. So you have
to have a game plan. You have to understand protection
first in income.

Speaker 3 (09:21):
Second.

Speaker 4 (09:22):
Everything else is important, but it's a little tertiary to
those two things. So do not ever try to time
the market. Figure out when you need your money sent
back to you. That's the timing you need to worry about.
When do you need the income to start. That's the
part you time because right now, no matter how volatile
the markets get, you can still get four or five, six, seven, eight. Gentlemen, ladies,

(09:45):
I have seen nine percent income streams at least right
now in this current environment. Some of those can be
locked in for a year or two. I don't know
how long they're going to last, and they're not guaranteed
for everyone, and not everyone has access to these things,
but these are things that exist. If you're worried about things,
then make sure you're getting the best for that safe money.
And if you want to hit home runs, and if

(10:06):
you want to tie yourself to this administration, I don't
think it's a bad idea. But don't just shove your
keyster out there into the wind thinking.

Speaker 3 (10:14):
That it'll all be good sales.

Speaker 4 (10:16):
You'll all be fine because people have thought that right.
Entire industries have crumbled when people thought, oh that can't fail.
Run world come or even some of the cryptocurrencies, I
mean some of them come back, but some of them
lost eighty percent, you know, just not that long ago.
So it doesn't matter if you had a million dollars,
you lose eighty percent, you don't get a million bucks anymore.

(10:36):
So these things are out there. Make sure that as
you get closer to retirement or you're thinking about those
days when you kind of want your money to work
for you, just be smart about it. I guarantee you
one thing. The Rockefellers and the Vanderbilts are not sitting
around talking about timing and market volumes. They're talking about
how are they spending their dividends wisely to keep them
away from Uncle Sam so that their airs and their

(10:58):
airs and their air can also live a comfortable life.
We can do a similar thing, even if we don't
have all those commas in our bank accounts.

Speaker 3 (11:07):
But we just have to plan accordingly.

Speaker 2 (11:09):
Retirement solutionshow dot com is our website and where to
start the conversation with John and his team about what
you've worked so hard to earn and save and not
adopting an all or nothing mindset and mentality when it
comes to your savings. If you did great in the
stock market, terrific for you, but now you need to
think about your money differently for your retirement. At Jahagen Capital,

(11:31):
they are here to help you do just that. We
also have links posted in the show notes so you
can just click there or again find us anytime Retirement
Solutionsshow dot com.

Speaker 1 (11:40):
Thanks for listening to The Retirement Solution Podcast with John Hicks.
Begin the conversation about your savings plan with John and
the team at Jahagen Capital by visiting Retirement Solution Radio
dot com. Be sure to listen to John's radio show,
The Retirement Solution Saturdays at eight am and Sundays at
nine am on NewsRadio eight forty WA.

Speaker 6 (12:01):
Ja Haigen Capital Incorporated is not licensed in all fifty states.
The find out if Jayhigan Capital Incorporated is licensed in
your state, Please call five zero two sixty nine O
fifty six thirty five. J Higgen Capital, Incorporated is not
affiliated with, nor endorsed by the Social Security Administration or
any other government agency, and does not provide legal or
tax advice. By contacting US, you may be provided with
information about insurance and annuity products offered from J Higgen
Capital LLCNPN number one eight eight two seven zero nine

(12:24):
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