Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is the Retirement Solution podcast with financial advisor John Hicks,
founder of Jayhagen Capital.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Watching everything you work so hard to earn and save
fall in the way that you do not want it
to the direction you don't want to. That's not an idea,
that's not anybody's idea of a good time.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
It's just a normal week, you know. With this administration,
I mean you know, it's like, hey, twenty five, thirty
thirty five, forty years of working and hookah hookah hookah.
Uh one tweet. They don't even call them tweets anymore, right,
Well one x or Trump's social, true social, true social
about tariffs and then boom my market inplode boom.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
That's it.
Speaker 4 (00:40):
It's like, oh, man, come on, So what we like.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
To do here in these conversations. I'm head the branch.
This is John Hicks, founder of ja Haagen Capital, financial advisor,
retirement planner, here to share with you ideas and insight
on things you can be working on. What we like
to do here in these conversations is offer some I
like to think that we go as neutral as possible
just on stats, facts and information, and then give people
(01:05):
some opportunity for solutions, ideas, things to work on. Because
one thing that you are constantly reminding people of John,
and I love this about you, is you're like, there
is always opportunity. I do not care what is going on.
There is always something that you can be doing, an
opportunity that you can be seeking, no matter what the
economic climate is.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
And oh, as a matter of fact, you know, if
you look at the Chinese symbol, and maybe we're not
supposed to talk about Chinese symbols these days, you said,
but if you look at the Chinese symbol that stands
for crisis, it is literally the exact same symbol that
stands for opportunity.
Speaker 4 (01:38):
Okay, So you know, whenever.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
Something weird happens, there is usually a counter event that
could create an opportunity, and we just have to have
our eyes open enough and we have to you know,
have some protections in place we can be confident take
advantage of that opportunity.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Right.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Yeah, yeah, those are those are the things that really
kind of make so much of these things exciting.
Speaker 4 (01:56):
If you know, we have a careful eye.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
Careful eye also an opportunit younistic eye and market strategist
Kem Parcary he agrees with your perspective. John. He was
telling Fox Business that down markets come with opportunity. Here's
what he said.
Speaker 5 (02:10):
This pullback is actually very healthy. It's long overdue. It
feels certainly uncomfortable. But in times like this is when
as a long term investor you really need to kind
of really take out your shopping list. This is very
active individual stock management, right. You want to pick up
names that are on sale, really good names top of
the line, you know, the largest megacap names in the
(02:31):
industries that you want that are really on sale. Because
this too shall pass, But I do think there's going
to be a little bit maturn lower.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Okay, this too shall pass. But he was talking about
what things are on sale because we have seen some
uptick from the lows that we saw right after the
initial news of the Trump tariff plan. Sure, so is
there still good opportunity? What are we looking for as
far as strategy to balance things like one seeking opportunity
(03:00):
current economic climates, but also the long game that's involved in.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
All of this.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
Yeah, So if you kind of look at things in
general right now, I mean, there's still a little bit
of room to go down. You know, the markets are
offered 're current lows, but there is really a lot
of uncertainty at there. As a matter of fact, if
you pull up the CNN Fear and Greed Index, we
are hovering around some of the most uncertain, most fearful
numbers we've actually seen. I pulled it up the other
day and it goes from zero to one hundred.
Speaker 4 (03:26):
Zero is like the.
Speaker 3 (03:27):
Most cynical, the most stricken people you could be, and
one hundred is unbelievably greed oriented. We were at a
five a five, which means unbelievable extreme fear. No, why
is that our market moving averages have taken off a cliff?
If you look at people the flight to safety, A
lot of institutions have done that. When you look at
(03:48):
that first major pullback, the day that the market was
down five or six percent was a week or two ago.
Now looking at that, it blew out almost all of
the leverage for the majority of.
Speaker 4 (03:57):
Hedge funds in the United States.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
What that means is that there is a tremendous amount
of liquidity out there, but no one wants to buy yet.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
Now, how long could this last?
Speaker 3 (04:07):
Well, if you look at the standard bull market versus
bear market, this could last anywhere between six months to
eighteen months.
Speaker 4 (04:14):
We don't know right now. I do know one thing,
the more.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
That we keep talking about tariffs, because the tariffs are
a means. Right, So if you ever listen to or
ever read Machiavelli, you know the Prince it was basically
how a warlord, if you will, a medieval warlord, got
his way, and his whole point was the end. What
you want to accomplish to the end justifies the means.
The problem is is that the current administration just keeps
(04:40):
talking about the means, the tariffs. The tariffs doesn't what
is going to be the ultimate good stuff that comes
out of this. No one is really talking about that,
to the point to where the Treasury Secretary Scott Besant
is out there saying, hey, remember we really just want
everyone to negotiate and play nice. No one really wants
a trade war. We just want to be The President
just wants us to treated fairly because we've been treated
(05:02):
unfairly for a while. Lah lah lah lah lah. That
the market doesn't like that, We don't like it at all.
And here's there's a big reason why. So if you
look at major downturns, so right, now the market is underwater.
For the year twenty twenty two is an underwater year.
We had a couple good years. We don't know, we
don't know yet what's gonna happen.
Speaker 4 (05:20):
But why is it?
Speaker 3 (05:21):
Why are we talking about this right now? Because if
you lose money in the first year or two of
your retirement, So if you retired in twenty twenty two,
that was kind of an ugly year. So you got
back some gains maybe in twenty three and twenty four,
and here we are again. Uh oh, another bad year.
If you lose money in the market the first couple
(05:42):
of years of retirement, your chances of running out increase
six hundred percent six times.
Speaker 4 (05:48):
You are six.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
Times more likely to run out of money if you
have a downturn in the first couple of years of retirement.
So if you didn't retire in twenty twenty two, you're
thinking about it this year, next year, sometime soon, or
just retired last year you're looking at that. Guys, those
are unfortunately not very good statistics. Now, does that mean
you're going to run.
Speaker 4 (06:07):
Out of money?
Speaker 3 (06:08):
Probably not, but you want to make sure that you
put some things in place. Now, why is it that
we are so much more likely to run out of
money if the market goes down. Well, it's called sequence
of return risk. If you have a major negative in
the beginning, not all of a sudden, I see you
at a million dollars. Now you get eight hundred and
fifty thousand. That was just a fifteen percent hit. At
(06:29):
one point, the market was down more than that this year.
Who knows where it's going to end up. But if
you lose that fifteen percent and then you pulled that
money to live off of Let's say you wanted to
pull out four percent, Well, now you're going to be
down to eight hundred and twenty thousand dollars. Now you
have to come back over twenty three percent just to
get back to even.
Speaker 4 (06:48):
But then what happens when you get back to even
You still need to pull money out.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
So unfortunately, that sequence of return is critical for the
first five years of retirement. This is why there are
some strategies we can use. The biggest one is called bucketing.
We want to have different buckets of money that do
different things for us. The first bucket is money that
we want to make certain, Hey, come heck or high water,
I've got at least one full year's worth of income
(07:13):
sitting over here. I know I'm not going to make
a fortune on it. Hey, guys, right now money markets
are still paying four percent, So it's not killing you.
Is that keeping up with inflation? Well it's not perfect,
But the point is is that you know for the
next year you do not have to pull from stocks
that are beaten up or bonds that are beaten up.
You get cash for a full year. So that's bucket
(07:34):
number one, and you want to make sure you also
have not just that income for a year, but any
kind of emergencies. What if you know you need new
tires in the car, but you know that that hot
water heater which is going to cost you three grand,
you know it's on its last leg. You know that.
Or you've just you know that there's some mildew or
mold under that carpet. You know you're gonna have to recarpet.
Those are the other things you want in that first bucket.
(07:56):
That's bucket number one. Bucket number two is our income bucket.
That is the bucket that we need to churn.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
Out an income.
Speaker 3 (08:04):
You can use divid in paying stocks, you can use annuities,
you can use bonds that are paying interest. You can
use treasuries, you can use anything within reason that has
a conservative bent in that bucket. I prefer investments that
cannot lose principle. Okay, they could fluctuate, but I prefer
them to at least be secured against loss or fully insured.
(08:27):
So this is where I like treasuries. I like insured bonds.
I like insured accounts. I like insured indexing type accounts.
I like things that are very, very very conservative, because
as we know that thing is generating income every year,
we know it can replenish that first bucket that we're
gonna We're gonna spend that money.
Speaker 4 (08:44):
We know it.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
So if we do that, your chances of running out
of money get really slim out of the gate, because
we know that we can sustain your income. Right And
the only reason people are worried about running out of
money is because they don't know where the income is
going to come from.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
Right.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
So, unless you want to go back to work, or
you have a whole bunch of airbnbs, or you can
rent out your lake house, or you want to do
part time job stuff, then you're going to have to
have something that's going to feed your income. Needs other
than social security or if you're lucky enough to have
a pension, that's awesome, right, but we need something.
Speaker 4 (09:13):
To feed that beast. So that's the second bucket.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
That is the bucket that I find most people do
not have correctly done.
Speaker 4 (09:18):
They say, well, I've.
Speaker 3 (09:19):
Got this big old portfolio, John, I got all these things.
I got small cap, mid cap, large cap bonds, treasuries,
but they haven't compartmentalized them into specific buckets that you know,
what they're for. Middle bucket is doing one thing, protecting
my assets and generating an income period.
Speaker 4 (09:36):
That's all it's meant to do. Now.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
That third bucket, and most of us we need three
total buckets. That third bucket, and this is where most
people have their stuff would be like your growth RNED investments.
I know that Ken Paul Carey was just talking about, Hey,
you might want to find those great tech companies. You know,
if you like Microsoft and it's all beaten up, or
you like Tesla and it's way you know, for sale
right now, or you like Meta.
Speaker 4 (09:56):
Or whatever it is.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
If you like those, that's the bucket that those are
for the things that long run we expect to grow, grow, grow, grow, grow.
But We don't want to pull from those assets when
they get punched in the mouth like recently. Big Tech
may have some problems if these tariffs persist and or
of China decides that they're not going to be bullied
any longer. Right, we've already seen that they could be
(10:18):
could be releasing and selling some of our treasuries on
the open market. It caused rates to spike. Guys, that's
not good. This is where a trade war becomes an
all out hot war, where all of a sudden, we're
doing major, major damage to each other's economies, to where
we decide, hey, we're gonna get boots on the ground.
Hopefully that doesn't happen, but is that a possibility.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
Who knows what. Yeah, anything could and we want to
be prepared for that.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
So the bucketing style, as simple as it seems, is
one of those things that can protect us. We know
we're going to have income for the next full years.
We got some a little bit of wiggle room. We
know that middle bucket is created specifically to make an
income for us, and that last bucket, the one that's
for growth. I mean, realistically, if we do our job right,
we may not even need to touch that bucket for
fifteen twenty twenty five years. That is a long time
(11:06):
for us to not have to worry about tariffs, not
have to worry about trade wars, not have to worry
about China. Hopefully, in the long run, that's the money
that's built to grow. So done correctly with a three
bucketing approach, the now bucket, the soon income bucket, and
the later growth bucket. If we do that correctly, we
can every single night go to sleep without clammy hands
and wondering if we're going to need to change our
(11:28):
underrus in.
Speaker 4 (11:28):
The middle of the night.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
We can have confidence, but we got to make sure
that we're doing it correctly. Based on a four letter word.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Math ew, how dare you?
Speaker 4 (11:38):
I know? How dirty that? Sir John?
Speaker 3 (11:39):
You're not supposed to talk dirty about that on the internet.
Speaker 4 (11:41):
You're just supposed to talk dirty like that. It's true.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
Who knew that planning for your future just required a
few buckets?
Speaker 3 (11:49):
I know?
Speaker 4 (11:50):
Elegant simplicity. Elegant simplicity is.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
It doesn't have to be complicated. It's not necessarily easy,
but it is simple. And when it comes to figure
bing out how to quote unquote bucket your money at
Jayigan Capital. This is what they are here to help
you figure out. So let's get to work helping you
apply this bucketing system to the financial plan for your immediate,
(12:15):
you're soon to be future, and your growth for the
years ahead. This is all the effort that goes too
every plan they created Jahagen Capital, which they can create
for you as well. Retirementsolutionshow dot com is our website
and where to start this conversation with John and his
team at Jahigen Capital. We also have links posting the
show notes so you can just click there. Let's get
to work bucketing your money again. It's retirement solutionshow dot com.
Speaker 1 (12:40):
Thanks for listening to The Retirement Solution Podcast with John Hicks.
Begin the conversation about your savings plan with John and
the team at Jahagen Capital by visiting Retirement Solution radio
dot com. Be sure to listen to John's radio show,
The Retirement Solution Saturdays at eight am and Sundays at
nine am on NewsRadio eight forty Whas.
Speaker 6 (13:01):
J Haigen Capital Incorporated is not licensed in all fifty states.
To find out if Jayhigan Capital Incorporated is licensed in
your state, please call five zero two sixty nine oh
fifty six thirty five. J Higgen Capital, Incorporated is not
affiliated with, nor endorsed by, the Social Security Administration or
any other government agency.
Speaker 4 (13:15):
It does not provide legal or tax advice.
Speaker 6 (13:17):
By contacting US, you may be provided with information about
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