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March 25, 2025 12 mins
Is stagflation a possibility? Is a recession looming? How will these impact your retirement? Jon Hicks explains that with economic uncertainty and market fluctuations, retirees and those nearing retirement need to prepare for potential financial challenges. He explores the impact of market downturns, emphasizing the importance of maintaining income streams during such periods and mitigating taxes through proper planning. Schedule your complimentary appointment today: RetirementSolutionShow.com Follow us on social media: YouTube | Facebook | LinkedInSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is the Retirement Solution Podcast with financial advisor John Hicks,
founder of Jayhagen Capital.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
Is it too early to start saying I'll say it quietly?

Speaker 3 (00:14):
Oh, sh don't, don't. Don't say that, You'll wake the beast.

Speaker 4 (00:17):
Is it too early, you'll wake the beast?

Speaker 2 (00:20):
Sorry, I tell you.

Speaker 4 (00:21):
Why is it? What is it about a word? Yeah,
that somehow can just strike fear in so many people.
But alas it's true, we have not had that many
recessions over the past let's say thirty years. Yeah, we've
had a few, and they hurt, right.

Speaker 2 (00:36):
Yeah, Well, I think it was the sting of how
bad two thousand?

Speaker 4 (00:40):
You're caught off guard or or like I like to say,
you know, if the tide goes down and you find
out that you didn't have any swim trunks on, and
everyone sees, oh, son of a monkey, that's that was
not good. That water was really cold. By the way,
the water was really cold. They'll make any passing judgments
it's just okay. And somehow you just you find out
that was uncomfortable. I don't like that. And some people

(01:01):
they leave the beach, they not only just pack up
their stuff, they never come back, come back. That's what
happens with a lot of recessions. So you know, if
there's one thing to learn in this environment, this administration,
there's no telling was going to go out on tweet
or X or said in the media and stir a
whole bunch of ruck us up right, And some of

(01:21):
it may be positive in the long run, but whooa man,
it's a little uncomfortable now.

Speaker 2 (01:27):
Well, and for so many folks. When we hear people
talking on the news and the TV, people are speaking
from a bigger macro economic level perspective. A lot of
economists would say, we need a recession. We've been needing
a recession. For folks that you work with that are
in their late fifties, early sixties on up from there,
that are either getting ready to retire or have just retired,

(01:47):
recession is not an often they want on the table.
This is not beneficial anyway for this group of people.
So understanding what proactive moves we can make is is
the conversation I wanted to have with you today. Obviously,
John Hicks, founder Jahyden Capital financial advisor, here to share
his insight with you. If you have questions, John and

(02:08):
his team here to help you get some answers retirement solutions.
Show dot com is our website and where to go
with your questions. Let's get to work starting the conversation
with you. We also have links posted in the show notes.
As you were saying, based on the tweets and the
headlines and all those things, I don't know what's going
to happen. Some days we're up, some days we're down.
Market talking in correction territory. According to some economists, many

(02:28):
wonder if it will continue to get worse. Wealth advisor
Jason Katz was telling Fox Business. He does say, John,
it's too early to use words like recession. Here's what
he said.

Speaker 5 (02:39):
It's way premature to use the dreddit r word or
worse yet, the stagflation terminology. It shouldn't enter into the
financial lexicon quite yet. I think we are suffering from
the short term pain and it's probably getting a little
worse before it gets better, because that's how markets moved.
Pendulums always swing too far, both to the upside and
in this case, the downside.

Speaker 2 (03:00):
So okay, So he brought stagflation into the conversation.

Speaker 4 (03:03):
Now, that's an ugly word. We've only had that one
time in the US economy, and it was a paralyzing
period of time. You'll remember when a peanut farmer Jimmy
Carter was in the office. We had you know, lines
around the blocks, you know, to try to get gasoline.
We had spiraling out of control prices. We had not
very good you know, job economy, and we had inflation.

(03:23):
We can do anything about it with a coupled with
a really craddy stock market. During that period of time,
it was. It was terrible, and a lot of people
today they remember when they were going through the seventies.
And by the way, two of the worst periods that
we faced for retirement, for retirees to consider would have
been during the seventies. Two of the big five. We're
going to go through the other ones here in a

(03:44):
couple of minutes, because learning from history is how we
can hopefully not be doomed to repeat it. Very important,
very important.

Speaker 2 (03:50):
Okay, So with let's obviously reflect on history because one
thing we don't we know for sure, we can't predict
the future. But as we have learned, history does have
way of repeating it, so we can learn from the past.
Is this event, this current market event though, is it
one that's more policy related in your opinion, Can that
turn around quickly? And is it or as you see fit,

(04:13):
perhaps something that I mean as a pullback? Are we
long overdue for one? And that come happening?

Speaker 4 (04:19):
Anyway, Here's what I would say. I'd say that a
lot of the tariff talk and the uncertainty of the
markets is basically just a catalyst. All it is is
a catalyst. And almost every major downturn starts with a catalyst.
There's something that happens at the very beginning, right, you know,
the first pin drops and then as soon as you
hear that pin, all of a sudden, now thousands of
pins can drop, and it just starts a flooding process.

(04:40):
So here's the big thing. Going into the beginning of
this year, there was not a tremendous talk of recession.
Now we knew going into the very beginning of this year,
markets were pretty fairly priced. That means that doesn't mean
super expensive. It just means that you know, they had
done a lot of movement up over the past several years. Right,
But if you look at what happens when you tie

(05:02):
in tariffs, So a new administration that obviously is going
out and trying to change things quickly quickly makes markets
very nervous too, because it doesn't have time to digest
what the data says. Is this a good direction, is
this is bad direction? We don't know. So we're just
going to sell a bunch of stuff, right, It's what
we do. But if you look at there's five major
studies that I always look at when we're looking at

(05:22):
recessionary environments.

Speaker 3 (05:23):
Right, let's look at them.

Speaker 4 (05:24):
So since the beginning of the year, the CNBC FED
survey based on should will a recession happen is increased
in nearly forty eight percent, The Call Sheet Prediction Market
Indicator forty eight percent chance of recession. At this point,
Polymarket Studies has forty four percent chance of recession. JP
Morgan moved there is from a twenty percent chance to
a forty five percent chance. And then the Wall Street economists,

(05:47):
if you take them all, basically a fifty to fifty
a coin toss. Now here's what I would say. Even
though markets were a little frothy, and even though we
have a president, you know that's going to be obviously
he is playing chess every single piece. At the same time,
it seems like he's not waiting for the other side
to move. Now, he's going to move them all now,
whether these whether these things happen to be positive in
the long run, Well, the short run is what the

(06:08):
market doesn't like. But when you're looking at these recessionary odds, guys,
we have to really take heed if we're getting closer
to retirement or we're already retired, because those great runs
that a lot of us we built our portfolios on.
We're looking at our account statements now and maybe they're
down a little bit, but they're pretty close to maybe
as high as they've ever been. And the question is

(06:29):
not a time to run. I'm never saying it's a
time to duck, but is it a time to hedge
some of your bets? Is it a time to put
some stop losses in there, some protections? Because that's what
we're going to talk about. What happens if we do
have a recession. The biggest thing if you're going to
go into retirement or you're already retired, is how are
you going to maintain your income stream? Right almost I'm
going to say eight out of ten clients that come
at our office, no matter how much money they've saved,

(06:51):
five hundred thousand dollars fifty million. Almost all of them
are expecting to pull some kind of income from their savings. Right,
So I've got client and they're just divesting of a
twenty eight million dollar real estate empire. We're utilizing some
trust situations so we can avoid at the moment most
of those those capital gains taxes.

Speaker 1 (07:11):
That's right.

Speaker 4 (07:11):
We're mitigating that in the front end. Now we may
have to pay it down the road, but we can
mitigate in their situation nearly ten million dollars of taxes
in the front end. That's huge, that's big. But what
we get to do is we have to create income
for them to live off of, because they're not going
to be getting that rental income anymore. Right So, even so,
again it doesn't matter if someone says, oh, there, we're
thirty million dollars or whatever that number is, They're fine. No,

(07:33):
if they want to live the same quality of life,
they have.

Speaker 3 (07:35):
To have income.

Speaker 4 (07:36):
So we're looking at strategies that we can use to
create that. And one of the best things that happen
in this environment if if in the long run, you're
still confident in the US as a going concern, which
means you think that markets may go up and down,
but in a long run they look they may be okay.
Is using a cash secured put strategy. Now this is
based on options. A lot of people never talk about

(07:58):
this because they don't understand it. Heather or this this
is one of the greatest ways for an average American
that understands this. Or you can use a fiduciar advisor
to help you with it. But you can generate returns
on your portfolio income returns of anywhere between I don't know,
six and twelve percent a year. We see often as
much as a percent a month. Now here's the crazy thing.
It has a tremendous amount of safety net. The way

(08:18):
it works is kind of like if you're out there.
I'm going to use an example, if you wanted to
go buy your dream home. Right, OK, Let's assume that
you want to go out there and you want to
buy your dream home, and you're looking out You're saying, oh, man,
there's a lot of houses I really like, but my gosh,
they're expensive. I don't want to pay that for that house.
So what this type of strategy does using a stock
instead of a house in this example, it says, Okay,
I want that dream home, I want that stock, but

(08:39):
I'm not going to pay today's price. I'm going to
put it. I'm going to put it in an offer.
I'm going to put an offer fifteen percent lower. Now,
if that house goes down fifteen percent in cost, guess
what that options exercise and guess what. You just bought
that house at a fifteen percent discount. That sounds pretty good. Now,
why would someone do that just because they get a
better deal. No, no, no, no, here's what we kind

(08:59):
of expect. We don't necessarily expect the house prices to
drop fifteen percent. And for you putting in that offer,
for you saying, hey, I'm going to play the game.
You know, I would like to buy about at fifteen
percent off. But in order for me to put this offer,
I want you to give me a premium. I want
you to give me a little something special. And in
this example, often we can find maybe you get half
a percent a week, and we recently developed a strategy

(09:21):
where we can generate close to half a percent a
week of income on these type of strategies. No, why
is this really cool? Because it doesn't matter if the
markets go up or down. We're creating income on a
weekly basis on something that we want to own. In
this example, let's say a high quality house, but or
a high quality stock like Walmart or Costco or take

(09:41):
your pick, anything you really like. Healthcare company, a tech
company is all beaten up, whatever you want. And the
point is is that you're only buying it when you
get the price you want and for you putting in
that offer, they're going to pay you to do it.
And we've seen people can generate now some really really
shrewd people, you know, they can generate twenty plus percent
a year on these things. Now you're only buying the
company when it is priced the way you want it.

(10:03):
And in the meantime, you're collecting option premium which you
can spend as income. So that exact example what I
just gave you is two major things that hyper wealthy
people use with consistency. They're using tax deferral or tax
mitigation strategy so they can hold on in my example,
almost ten million more dollars being held on to that
they can earn income on. And we talked about using

(10:25):
a cash secured put strategy where you can generate tremendous
income that does not have anything to do with today's
market volatility. It simply has to do with if you
could buy that company, what would be a good price
to buy it at, and are you willing to be
paid a premium or income for you to put that
offer in? You get the choice, right, So those are
two really good ways that you can turn lemons into

(10:47):
lemonade even if we have a recession, because if you
go back over the past fifty years, we've had five
major periods of time that lasted seven to ten years,
and the market averaged roughly nothing or slightly negaive during
every one of those times. So where's the income going
to come from? In those examples?

Speaker 2 (11:05):
Asking yourself, do you have a proactive income strategy if
we do, in fact find ourselves in a recessionary period.
If you have no idea what that strategy is, or
if you even have one, now is the time to
get to work. Asking John and his team these questions
so that you can understand what your options are, because,
as we have said before time and time and time again,

(11:27):
good economy, bad economy, John, there are always opportunities.

Speaker 4 (11:31):
Absolutely, and you never want to not be able to
retire right just because something you can't control or tariffs
or or foreign diplomacy or lack thereof cause you to
mess it up. No, no, no, we can plan around that.
But you got to start yesterday.

Speaker 2 (11:45):
Got to start yesterday, and now is as good as
time as any dude get started. If you didn't start
yesterday baking a plan, putting it into places what John
and his team are here to help you figure out
a plan, customize to you and your goals, that income
strategy that you need despite what Wall Street or Washington
may or may not be saying or doing. Let's help
you figure it out. Visit us at Retirement Solutions Show

(12:05):
dot com. You can also click on the links who
got posted in the show notes or again it's Retirement
Solutions Show dot com.

Speaker 1 (12:11):
Thanks for listening to The Retirement Solution Podcast with John Hicks.
Begin the conversation about your savings plan with John and
the team at Jayhagen Capital by visiting Retirement Solution Radio
dot com. Be sure to listen to John's radio show,
The Retirement Solution Saturdays at eight am and Sundays at
nine am on NewsRadio eight forty Whas.

Speaker 3 (12:32):
Jhagen Capital Incorporated is not licensed in all fifty states.
To find out if Jayhagan Capital Incorporated is licensed in
your state, please call five zero two sixty nine fifty
six thirty five. Jahegan Capital Incorporated is no affiliated with,
nor endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any other
government agency, and does not provide legal or tax advice.
By contacting US, you may be provided with information about
insurance and annuity products offered through Jggincapital LLCNPN number one

(12:53):
eight eight two seven zero nine four
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