Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is the Retirement Solution Podcast with financial advisor John Hicks,
founder of jay Haagen Capital.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Oh, the tariffs have gone into effect and the turbulence
just swept right on in right there afterwards, didn't it?
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Though? You know what markets love. I love not knowing
what live grenade is about to be thrown on the
floor in front of the New York Stock Exchange.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
It sure to you, don't they the markets? I love that.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
I am amazed. You know, this was a big week.
You know, the President addressed the nation this week talking about,
you know, the time that he's already been doing things.
It is amazing that not only does he want to
disrupt everything, and sometimes that can be good, right, sometimes
that can be good, But he's doing it all at
the same time, all at once, and the stock market
hates it.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
We hates it. You are here to help us, on
a micro level figure out what the heck we're supposed
to be doing in these circumstances. This is obviously John Hicks,
financial advisor, founder of jay Hagen Capital. I'm had the
branch here with John to ask for his insight when
we have questions, as so many of us do more
and more in day and day out it seems lately.
Retirement Solutions Show dot com is our website and where
(01:08):
to go if you want to speak with John and
his team directly at JA Haygen Capital, we are here
to help you out. Of course, links posted in the
show notes as well. So turbulence, tariffs, Trump, They're all
coming together, stock market.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
The three teams, right, is that?
Speaker 2 (01:24):
What's happening there? We were I feel like we talked
about Blackrock recently, but the Rick reader of Blackrock, he
was telling CNBC the big unknown is Trump administration policy.
Here's what he said.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
It's been quite a right, Like say, a lot of
this comes up because policy uncertainty is just out there.
When are we going to get tariffs? What types of tariffs?
What's the relationship with US China? You know, putting all
that together. Anybody who can tell you, gosh, I've figured
out my model on growth or inflation without a wide
error band, I think is lying. You just can't. You
can't do it, and that's why you get these jittery
(02:00):
markets and why risk premia has gone up.
Speaker 2 (02:02):
People are lying, people are full of it.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
What are we rey to do? I mean when you
look at implied volatility. Basically, if you went to sleep,
you know, seeing, hey, right now, it looks like there's green,
there's positivity maybe for the market tomorrow. They called it,
you know, after market iterations or whatever. Right, and then
by the time that the market is opened and Trump
has said a single word, boom, it all goes straight
(02:26):
red because markets don't like uncertainty. Let's think about that
for a minute, right, So typically stock markets go up
or down based on do they think that companies are
going to earn more money. So when we're talking about tariffs,
and then there's a whole you know, philosophical argument in
a vacuum on our tariffs really bad or potentially good whatever,
it has nothing to do with that. The real thing, though,
(02:48):
is is that think about it this way, how do
we know if LG or Samsung are going to be
positive or have growth of their stock if we have
no idea if they're gonna have to pay a ton
of time ariffs or have their profit margin cut. Right, So,
all of a sudden, every company out there that deals
with goods that don't just come from the United States,
(03:09):
which is almost all of them, they got issues. And
then on top of that, it's all of the other
things that play into that bank's absolutely got hammered this
week because they're like, oh my gosh, we have all
these issues. How are banks going to get these lending,
how are they going to be able to make money
on lending? How is this going to work out? And
when you have financial institutions to take a hit, people
get very squeamish. Right. So, from the time that Trump
(03:31):
was elected in November of last year to now, there
was a huge Trump bump. I think the mark was
at four and a half percent or something like that
after he was elected. I don't know if it was
euphoria or craze or whatever whatever it was, or maybe
just a different change. The market was like, Okay, now
we know pro business should be good. Maybe deregulation, maybe
a drill, baby drill, we'll see. But now all of
(03:53):
a sudden, what we have is we have all of
these irons that have been putting in fireplaces, but more
than that, like they're actually got but tane fuel in gasoline.
They're spraying into these fireplaces, and it's like, holy moly,
the markets don't know how to respond. Now is that
going to be a big deal? It's going to be
a big deal. So from that point in time, though,
from the big Trump bump in November. Now the market's down.
(04:15):
It's down from the time he was elected, and it's
down year to date, and it's almost It's very interesting
because almost every major asset class is down except for gold.
Now gold has also been on a multi year run up.
I don't know how much room it has to grow.
I still don't think that they've shown any of the
live stream of what's going on in Fort Knox. There
(04:36):
may not be any gold in Fort Knox. We don't
know how that's going to work out. But interestingly enough,
when you look at all these things, the markets don't
like it. I think it was Bob Rubin, who's the
former Treasury secretary, said this is the most uncertainty's scene
in sixty two years of his entire professional life. So
the question is, how can we as investors either protect
(04:58):
ourselves from that volatility. Latility usually causes people to lose
a lot of money, that's really what it boils down. Yeah,
how can we either protect ourselves from that or how
can we ride through the situation regardless of the day
to day How can we ride through that situation? And
still be able to retire when we want. Those are
essentially the two major questions we have to ask ourselves.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
So thinking then about because this is the reality is
of when it comes to white has administrations, it's going
to change every forty eight years, Max. Knowing this is
Trump's second term and usually he only has a president
in their second term, they really can only get stuff
done in their first two years, right, and I think
hence the reason why the fire hydrant thing is happening,
(05:42):
they're raising I.
Speaker 3 (05:43):
Only get things done until there's the midterm election. Is
right now, the Republicans have the House and the Senate
and the Executive branch, so they've got all three. So
if they wanted to pass bills right now, they have
a chance.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
Now.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
Who knows what happens in two years when Congress reconvenes
and then maybe half of these Republican congressmen are gone,
or or maybe the Democrats get something together and they
can find a way to do whatever they want to
do and they get more people in and then it
makes it more like a stalemate, right, gridlock and is
as odd as it seems that the American people and
the American stock markets like gridlock.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
They do.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
They like it when major shifts can't happen any given day,
and right now we have it where major shifts are
potentially happening yeah every single day, okay, right, yeah, and
so markets hate that and it's really really bad for
us psychologically too. Right. So we've done a good job.
We've set money aside. We're waiting for one day that
(06:36):
we can have that money work for us and start
sending us, you know, a little bit of our own
money back or maybe earnings so that we can get retired,
because we want to supplement that social Security income or
our pension income or our airbnb property, you know that
we get money coming in. We want to be able
to do that, but we don't know what the markets
are going to do. So it was interesting. So this
week also Scott Bessont, who's the new Treasury Secretary. He
(07:00):
actually said words that I didn't think I would hear
in twenty twenty five. He said, we may already be
in a soft recession. When he's actually looking at because
before he was confirmed, he hadn't taken the books, he
didn't know exactly what the Treasury was showing, and he
was looking at some of the numbers, and he said, hey,
you know, it's not alarmist. We've been doing this, it
appears now for about the last nine months, but we
(07:20):
may already be in a soft recession for the past
nine months. Very interesting. So when you kind of put
those things into perspective, and I've said it on the
last two or three weeks worth of shows, I've said, hey,
let's just be careful. You know, the market's been kind
kind of expensive, and if you look at some of
the Nobel Prize winners like Bob Schiller, he says, hey,
based it today's prices, the market's about thirty five to
(07:42):
forty percent more expensive than it should be based on
fair valuations. And he didn't say, hey, this means it
needs to come down. That's not what he said. He said,
but at today's prices, we can expect the market to
average about one point six to two percent a year. Now, guys,
think about that. You have all the risk in the
world of the market losing forty percent in order to
make a whopping to two percent or something like that. Yeah,
(08:03):
what do we get non money markets right now? Like
four or four and a half, you know, maybe maybe
a little bit higher in some situations. So the question is,
are we in a place now where we have to
risk a ton of money or does it make more
sense to have hedges or safety nets or fail safes
or options or derivatives or some kind of get at
a jail free card. So if things do go wrong
(08:24):
and the market does go down thirty to forty percent,
you're not left going, oh crud, Now what do I do? Right?
Because it's hard to retire, and it's really difficult to
retire if you lose money in those first two to
three years of retirement as you're pulling money out, because
you're pulling money out that you can never have a
chance to get back because you spent it.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
Spend it ye, right.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
So it's a big deal. So we have to be
cognizant of that because if we do have a market downturn,
that's not the end of the world. If we're thinking
about pulling money out and we're having a market downturn,
you have to be certain that you're pulling from the
right out sets at the right time.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Big difference, right, And that's where the planning comes into place.
The eye without question, what is that risk called I'm
losing my terminology right now, what is it called? The
risk that it is where you pull from sequence. Superturn
is a big thing.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
Yes, yes, So even if we have a good ten
year period, it's when those returns happened. So if you
retired last year, last year is a pretty good year
in the market. Last year in the market was up
double digits this year. What if you retired this year, though,
and the market's down, and let's say it's down double digits,
who knows what's going to happen. I'm not saying it
will be that way. All of a sudden, you're a
million dollars in this example, let's say it a million
(09:37):
dollars and you wanted to pull out forty grand to
live off of. But you're down ten percent, so you're
already down your your million is not only nine hundred thousand,
and then you want to pull up forty grand. Ooh,
So mathematically we're adding insult to injury. We're pulling out
money that lost money. Yeah, what does that mean? It's
not in there to earn it back. You can't ever
(09:58):
earn it back. So that's why unfortunately, seekins returns equates
to almost a thirty percent failure chance, even if you're
doing the four percent rules. So let me say that again.
If you have your money invested and you're pulling income
from volatile assets like mutual funds or stocks and bonds,
and we have a downturn, there is nearly a one
in three chance you could fail in your retirement plan
(10:21):
if that happens in the first couple of years of
your retirement, pulling out just four percent. Guys, that's really scary.
That's terrible. Now here's the good piece of information. We
can completely avoid that from happening. We can completely eliminate
that from happening depending on what strategies or assets we
use to pull the income from. That's it. It's not
(10:42):
really more complicated. I call it elegant simplicity. The things
that we need to produce an income, we need to
get a real income from them, and we can't have
them deteriorate in value, right because when bonds are down
at the same times that treasuries are down at the
same times it stocks are down at the same times,
it real estates down, interest rates are up, all inflation's up.
That is havoc. And that's where we are right now.
(11:05):
So we have to be very careful, and we have
to understand things. If we're fearful of things out there,
we'll often do the wrong thing at the wrong time.
And because we don't like having losses, no one likes it. It
feels terrible, feels miserable to see the red ink on
your statement, and then you see it two months in
a row, and then you pull money out to live
off of. So now you're done three months in a
(11:25):
row and then down four months in a row. It
causes a psychological effect that causes us to make dumb
things happen, or if nothing else, we just make dumb choices.
We can't help it, it's just how we're wired. So
we can avoid that with the right plans for distribution plans,
right income plans. So if you look at the biggest
things we can do, number one, protect a good portion
of our money, number two create an income stream, and
(11:47):
number three be tax efficient. If we do those big
three things in that exact order, we have a much
better chance of having a fabulous retirement. Even if we
are in a recession.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
God kicking you when you're down, though, I mean you're
you're losing money to markets going down, and then you're
trying to withdraw, and now sequence of returns risk comes
in and just bites down the.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
Butts and eggs are ten dollars you know for a
dozen in ground B is going to be expensive and
and gasoline hasn't come down that much, and you federal
jobs potentially may have a lot fewer people that have
federal jobs. So you know, you put all that together,
does that is that a recipe for some unattractive periods
of time? Maybe by so we hope it doesn't end
(12:28):
up that way, But we got to be prepared.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
With all that said. Volatility, despite it, uncertainty, despite it,
now is not the time to just sit back and
let it happen to you. Proactivity, not reactivity, is the
name of the game, particularly in times of uncertainty. So
if you are feeling a little unsettled about the way
things have been in the last weeks and you're wondering
(12:51):
where we're headed. Of course, there's lots of question marks.
Everybody knows when it comes to President Trump. You never
know what's going to happen. But there are oportunities, There
are ways to add layers of protection to that money
you work so hard to earn and save. John and
his team at Jahagen Capital here to show you what
those might be within your own savings plan. So visit
us at retirement solutionshow dot com to start the conversation
(13:13):
with John and his team. We also have links posted
in the show notes so you can just click there
or get its Retirement solutionshow dot com.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
Thanks for listening to The Retirement Solution Podcast with John Hicks.
Begin the conversation about your savings plan with John and
the team at Jahagen Capital by visiting Retirement Solution radio
dot com. Be sure to listen to John's radio show,
The Retirement Solution Saturdays at eight am and Sundays at
nine am on NewsRadio eight forty Whas.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
Jahagen Capital Incorporated is not licensed in all fifty states.
To find out if Jahagan Capital Incorporated is licensed in
your state, please call five zero two six nine fifty
six thirty five. If Jahegan Capital Incorporated is not affiliated with,
nor endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any other
government agency, and does not provide legal or tax advice,
by contacting us, you may be provided with information about
insurance annuity products offered through ja Higgins Capital LLC. NPN
(14:02):
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