Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is the Retirement Solution Podcast with financial advisor John Hicks,
founder of jay Hagen Capital, and I'm.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
The branch here with John Hicks, financial advisor and founder
of jay Hagen Capital, here to help you gain some
education and knowledge on your opportunities for your financial future,
focusing on your retirement and retirement solutionshow dot com is
where to find John and his team anytime to get
started on the conversation, because conversations are abound. You, I think,
(00:29):
are the leading the charge when it comes to the
Trump administration back in the White House and what the
heck does that mean for us?
Speaker 3 (00:37):
I don't have a minute by minute We don't know.
I mean, there has been more done in the first
one hundred hours of this administration than in any other
period of time that I recall. I mean, it's mind
numbing what's going on. And I don't know that if
if all of us are fully even aware of everything
that's happening, some of it may be great, some of
(00:57):
them may be terrible. We don't yet know. All I
know is that there's a lot going on, almoselle A lot, okay,
a lot going on.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Let's speak specifically about I mean obviously we all want
to It's a be problem, right John? What about me?
How does this going to help me? So the last
jobs reported twenty twenty four, it came in positive. More
than a quarter million jobs were added, and the unemployment
rate dropped from four point two to four point one percent. However,
on the news, this doc market actually went down. Because
(01:28):
this news likely means that the Fed is going to
pause interest rate cuts again. Strategist Ken Paulcary was telling
Fox Business that this might be the rule for twenty
twenty five.
Speaker 4 (01:38):
I don't think we're gonna have a rate cut all year,
quite honestly, and I've been saying it for a while.
I think the data has been telling us that the
Fed has been wrong. The bond market's been telling us
that the Fed has been wrong. The label market was
not slowing the way that Jay Powell told us it
was in September when he had to make that very
bold fifty basis point rate cut made no sense, and
now it makes even less sense.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
Ken's got thoughts. O.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
Poul Carry is on a roll. Look at this man.
He basically had a lot to say, But he's not incorrect.
He's not incorrect. There's a lot of data out there
that shows that basically the FED has gotten it wrong
when they were doing the rate cutting situation. So the
market plummets because they want more free money. Let's be real, right,
So who doesn't want to be able to go back
and be able to get a home mortgage for three
(02:21):
percent again? Right?
Speaker 4 (02:22):
Right?
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Everyone wants that. Banks want to be able to create
more money than data. Everyone that has a company wants
more free access to capital. It's good, But what we're
finding is that no matter what Trump said on the
election campaign speech and whatever he set up to now,
inflation's not going anywhere right now. And it's not typically
(02:44):
a bad thing. But when you have a growing economy,
typically you're often going to have higher inflation. So we're
gonna have to see what happens. But I think I
agree with Paul carry there. I don't think at least
right now, the FED can really sensibly talk about reducing
rates because if they do, if they reduce them too quickly,
then we'll have that spiraling out of control inflation again.
(03:04):
And to be honest with you, I'm tired of paying
three bucks and fifty cents for a dozen eggs.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Reach into the choir, and I mean, come on, all right,
So I love omelets.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
This is a terrible thing in my family career.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
You need that good healthy protein, all right. So thinking
about folks that you work with, Folks fifty five and older,
folks who are thinking about retirement in the next three
to five to ten years are already retired. There was
this survey from Global Atlantic Financial Group finding that people
of this age group, fifty five to seventy five, sixty
percent of them would rather protect their existing savings than
(03:36):
seek growth on their wealth, understandably because of phase of life.
But thinking about I want to bring all of this together,
thinking about what Ken was talking about. If interest rates
stay where there are, does this open up new opportunities?
How do we find a balance with everything that's shaken
up right now?
Speaker 4 (03:55):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (03:56):
I think this is really interesting. So when six out
of ten people nearing retirement age say that, hey, they
would much rather have some security, They'd much rather have
protection of their money than growth, there's something about that
that that may be a little bit of a paradigm shift.
And I'm not saying it's good or bad, okay, but
think about that. I remember a story that Jack Bogel
(04:16):
told years ago. Jack Bogel was the founder of Vanguard Funds,
which kind of revolutionized a lot of investing for most
of us, you know, Americans, and crazily he told a
story about a billionaire talking to a basically a common
worker who you know, it saved a couple hundred thousand dollars,
and the billionaire was kind of being hoity toity and
(04:37):
kind of snooty, and the worker just kind of looks
up and says, you know, mister billionaire, there's one thing
that I'll have that you'll never have. And the billionaire responds,
what you could what could that possibly be? And the
worker said enough, he already has enough. He doesn't need
to make a billion dollars. That's not how it works.
You can listen to countless Sammy Hagar songs and Brad
(04:59):
Page songs and Kenny Chesney songs talking about the simple
life and how good it can be. Guys, this is
probably what this tells me more than anything. Sixty percent
of those getting closer to retirement polled in the survey says, hey,
I think I might have enough. And why would they
have enough? Because the market up until you know, we
had some volatility. Now yeah, but the market has been
pretty good over the past decade, and people are sitting
(05:22):
on top of close to the highest amount of money
they've ever had.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Now.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
I find this really interesting because also when you look
at people out there, we do not have the pensions
that we used to have. So that's troublesome. Right. We
have had higher inflation and things like that, but people
just said, listen, I just don't want to lose it again.
Maybe they're cautiously optimistic about this, really about this administration too,
and they're just thinking, Hey, I just don't want one
(05:46):
bad day to start a new civil war or one
bad tweet to cause China to cause another Cold War.
You know, I would much rather just protect what I got,
And guys, there has probably been I can't think of
too many other environments which were as attractive as they
are right now to put some safety nets on portfolios.
We still have pretty high interest rates. I mean, money
(06:09):
markets are still paying four and a half to five
percent in some cases, which is really good. But the
crazy thing is is you don't have to be that
conservatively safe. You can put safety nets and hedges on
your portfolio and still earn Heather seven eight nine ten percent.
There was a gentleman that I talked to the other day.
We had put him in an account that was secure.
(06:30):
On the downside, he got thirteen percent return over this
past year. He was like, oh my gosh, John, I
can't believe. I was like, hey, hey, it's not that
the product is that great, it's the fact that the
period of time that we owned it was really good.
And this year he's deciding, hey, do I want to
do this again, or do I want to pull my
money out and go into end Video or Microsoft or Apple. Guys,
(06:50):
those are the things that exist. So if you're one
of those people that's thinking, hey, maybe I do have enough,
then don't have the opportunity to lose it where you
don't have enough. It wasn't that long ago that we
just saw the market take a gyration, a punch in
the mouth and Nvidiostock fell like twenty percent in a
flipping day. When China says, hey, we get some good
(07:11):
AI stuff too, you never know when that's going to happen.
So if you're one of those people that said I
would much rather have some safety nets, guys, those exist
out there. If you're not aware of those ways, to
use hedging or options or derivatives, or putting safety nets
on your portfolios. Guys, this is what my team does
every day. We want to take advantage of the opportunities
this new administration may offer, but we're not willing to
(07:34):
risk everything in case we get it wrong or the
hopes that we have don't come to.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Fruition retirement Solutionshow dot com is where to start the
conversation with John and his team at Jay Hayden Capital.
Understanding the safety net options that you have, Understanding the
idea that you don't want to lose all your money
again because for so many people of a certain age, John,
we remember two thousand and eight. Of course, we also
(08:01):
there has been some talk about are we getting greedy
as a society because this is incredible bull run that
we still for all intents and purposes, we're still on.
And for those that are close to retirement, is there
some is there an essence at all of oh God,
is it coming? Like what could happen? I don't want
that to wreck me now at this phase of my life.
(08:22):
How are you managing that conversation?
Speaker 3 (08:25):
Sure? Well, I mean if you look at twenty three
and twenty four those are both fairly good years in
the market. Yeah, but you only have to go to
twenty two, where ponds were down over sixteen seventeen percent
the stock market was down over nineteen twenty percent. So
when you look at those things, it wasn't that long
ago that we had a pretty good punch in the face. Now.
Did we recover from that, yes, but that is not
(08:45):
necessarily the standard, right. Usually we don't get a recovery
that quickly. The average market downturn lasts for anywhere between
eighteen to thirty six months, So we're talking about most
market downturns don't last a period of months. They last
a little bit of time in the recovery period. If
you go back to the dot com bust, it took
from two thousand and two all the way to two
(09:08):
thousand and seven to get back to even. Guys, that's
seven years of having losses on your statement, staring at
you with that red ink right there in your face
for seven years, and lo and behold what happened in
two thousand and eight. Boom They took it right back.
If you had invested in the Nasdaq and the year
two thousand, you did not get your money back until
(09:31):
two thousand and seventeen, Heather, two thousand and that's seventeen
years that you did not have the same type of
money you had in two thousand. Now, if you're a
younger investor like most of us were back then, and
you can afford to hold on and you didn't freak
out and throw in the towel, did you get your
money back?
Speaker 1 (09:48):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (09:48):
Yeah, And from twenty seventeen to right now, did the
market go up tremendously more than that? It absolutely did.
But what if you were thinking about retirement and you
needed to pull an income you just wanted to live
off of four or five six percent a year, And
people say John all the time, no, you can't live
off six percent. You absolutely can get five six seven
(10:09):
percent on your money that you can spend and work
on in retirement if you have the right strategy around it.
You can't do that with a basket of tech stocks.
You have to understand if you want a higher income stream,
you can create that, but it requires a different strategy.
But people don't want to wait thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, seventeen
years to get back to even They want to be
(10:31):
able to retire. So that is where that concept and
that whole strategy, or that that story of Jack Bogel saying, hey, listen, guys,
you just got to know you already won the game.
You could literally retire tomorrow if you understood one word enough.
If you have enough, the question is what are you
willing to do to protect it? Because one other sage
(10:53):
or oracle is Warren Buffett, and Warren Buffett says the
same thing. He says, never risk what you can't afford
to lose to gain what you don't need. Think about that.
Never risk which you can't afford to lose to gain
what you don't need. That's just a lot more words
to basically say, hey, dude, you got enough, Why don't
(11:14):
you just put some protections in place and start planning
the way you want to enjoy your money, your wealth,
the fruits of your labor. Do that. And guys, if
we all did that, I think we'd be in a
much better position. This is why at my office, this
is what we talk with people about. It's not about
being the richest person in the graveyard. It's like, what
do we really need? What is your enough? How much
(11:34):
income do we want to spend monthly? Do you want
to go to Madrid. Do you want to have a
Mediterranean cruise? Do you want to have a lake house
where the grandkids can come see you every summer and
you can teach them how to fish and dive off
the docks. Those are the things we want to deal with.
It's not just finances, it's using our finances to create
the lifestyle that we've always dreamed about. Or if we
haven't started dreaming about it yet, maybe we start today.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
Do you have enough to create the life that you
want for yourself and your family in your retirement years.
Let's get to work crunching the numbers and showing you
what your options are. Increasing your safety, decreasing your risk,
creating income streams for your retirement. These are all of
the factors that go into the plans they build at
(12:17):
Jahagen Capital and that they can build for you as well.
Get started on that conversation visit us today Retirement solutionshow
dot com.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
Thanks for listening to the Retirement Solution Podcast with John Hicks.
Begin the conversation about your savings plan with John and
the team at Jayhagen Capital by visiting Retirement Solution Radio
dot com. Be sure to listen to John's radio show,
The Retirement Solution, Saturdays at eight am and Sundays at
nine am on NewsRadio eight forty whas.
Speaker 5 (12:47):
Jhagen Capital, Incorporated is not licensed in all fifty states.
To find out if KEA Gegean Capital, Incorporated is licensed
in your state, please call five zero two six nine
fifty six thirty five. Jay Get Again Capital, Incorporated is
not affiliated with, nor endorsed by, the Social Security Administration
or any other government agency. In this unprovided legal or
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Capital LLCNPN number one eight eight two seven zero nine
(13:10):
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