Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Z Yes.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
This is the Rise Up Sea Red podcast, all about
the Arizona Cardinals and the NFL, featuring insider and outsider perspectives.
Enjoy the best hour of Cardinals Talk on the web.
Now Here are your hosts, Jess Root.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
And Seth Cox, Laura's and a Cardinals fans and welcome
to the latest edition of the Rise Up sire At podcast.
Speaker 4 (00:35):
The Best are Cardinals Talk. I'm the Web.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
I'm your host Jessroot from cardswire dot com USA, Today's
NFL wiresighte the cover series of the Cardinals.
Speaker 4 (00:42):
And this is a special show.
Speaker 3 (00:43):
This is not one of the regular shows with my
co host Seth Cox, as we will record our first
of two or three shows that we have heading into
Week one. This is a bit of a season preview
with a special guest from covers dot Com, Jason Logan,
who recently wrote betting previews for pretty much probably every
NFL team that covers the.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Map, every single NFL team. Yeah, I was trying to
get them done before the long weekend, right because it
then come Monday morning, it's it's all Week one focused stuff.
So it was it was a haul. I came back
from vacation, it just put my head down and for
like three weeks, just just pound out thirty two team previews,
and not just like team previews, but team betting previews.
This is a different way to look at these teams.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
And and so episode six hundred ninety one, we're going
to talk cardinals and the sports book world, the sports
betting world, which Seth and I do dabble in ourselves
as a little bit of degenerates here. But so for
for the casuals, for the degenerates, we've got information for you. Welcome,
(01:47):
Welcome to aboard Jason for the show coming on. You
were pointing out that that you and I have probably
cross paths in the last fifteen years, even though never
on the show. I you said, I, I probably wrote some
content for you way way back back in my espianation days.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
That's right. Yeah, we used to do it for Monday
night football. We used to go out and seek like
specific team bloggers to kind of debate who was going
to cover on Monday night football. And I think you
were kind enough to help us but on a few
of those Monday games. So appreciate that long, long term,
long time coming both that it would have been like
between twenty ten, twenty fifteen.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
But yeah, well, the Cardinals coming into the twenty twenty
five season have high hopes. They do they do not
have like from the outside looking in, there are not
major expectations of them. The expectations are coming more from
the inside of the building and within the fan base
because in two years with Jonathan Gannon as their head coach,
(02:47):
they went from the foreign the four and thirteen dumpster
fire of twenty twenty two to a four and thirteen.
I described them as a good bad team. They were
a bad team. They were a bad ross twenty twenty three.
They were a bad team, but they were a good
bad team because they barely lost. They were competitive. They
(03:07):
probably should have had two other wins in there. They
shouldn't have lost that game to the Giants, and Matt
Prater had only. In fact, Matt Prater missed the only
field goal of his career in the final two minutes
of a game, game winning or game time field goal
at in the final two minutes of football game more
in overtime, first miss ever. But that miss was following
(03:30):
the script that fans had so they could lock in
the fourth overall pick and take Marvin Harrison, so they
might or in thirteen being a dumpster fire to four
and thirteen as a competitive bad team to eight to
nine last season, which they were. Honestly, they were six
and four, but they were a perfectly mediocre team because
they beat the non playoff teams and with the exception
(03:53):
of the one unexcusable loss to the Carolina Panthers, eight
of their nine losses so all their losses except for Caroline,
and it came against teams with double digit wins and
in the playoffs. So they were a perfectly mediocre team
last year. And you wrote about it in your preview
that it was kind of the tail of two seasons
(04:13):
for Kyler Murray the first ten games and in the
final seven, and Murray's play kind of put whether you
could say it was Murray, it would just but it
coincided with that that what did you see from them
last year from a betting standpoint.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
Like you said, you're always looking as me as I
do these previews and get ready for a week one
of the NFL season and so forth, I am looking
for bad teams that can be good bets. Teams that
are improved, have some key things that are going their
way heading into the season, be it quarterback play or
their pass rush, or you know, maybe a change and
(04:52):
coordinator or something like that. I'm always looking for a
team that is better than expected and that's where you're
going to find point spread value. And Arizona was that
last year. I mean, they came out out of the gate,
looked really really strong. I think they went what seven
and three or seven and two right out of the gate.
They also covered in those spreads, covered those spreads in
those games as well too, and then you'll see market correction,
(05:16):
and I think market correction and a downtick in play
from this team and Kyler Murray making some mistakes along
the way. It all kind of happened at once and
then a lot of the value just fell out at
the bottom for Arizona. But in terms of a fast
start and a great bet early on in the season,
they were just that, and I think they have a
potential to be that again. Of seeing how this opening
(05:38):
schedule lines up.
Speaker 4 (05:39):
Nice you.
Speaker 3 (05:42):
Look at their first six games of the season, they play,
they play well. I think when we get to the
season totals, the Cardinals have a very favorable schedule in
the fact that they play the NFC South in the
AFC South, and while the NFC South had has you know,
the Buccaneers are expected to be solid. The Falcons you
(06:05):
never know about the Falcons. But then in the in
the AFC South, it is the Texans and then the
Texans and a bunch of not Greek teams. Like when
you look at the Colts, like they they improved the
quarterback situation with Daniel Jones, did they?
Speaker 2 (06:25):
I was like, I was, like, I said, they're either
I said, with the Colts, they're either like Anthony Richardson
is either that far gone where he's just he's not.
And the thing is like week one Anthony Richardson the
last two years, it's awesome because he's healthy. Right Like
Week one Anthony Richardson is much different than week two
or week three. And so I look at that and say, Okay,
(06:46):
is he that far gone where they just he's that
bad and they can't trust him? Or are they doing
trying to hope to do what Carolina did with Bryce
hung And it's like your benched, you're not starting, you're
not me eating expectations. And that's what happened with Bryceing
at the ending of last year and then Andy Dalton
got hurt and they're like, okay, prove it. And he
came in and Bryce Ang was fantastic. You said a
(07:07):
loss to the Carolina Panthers, and I was like, well,
that's not a bad loss because Carolina actually was pretty
good team towards it the last third two thirds of
last year. But you know, maybe that's what the cults
are trying to do with Anthony Richardson has light a
fire under his ass and take a page of the
Carolina Panthers playbook.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
So the Cardinals open the season favored in five of
their first six games, the only games there at least
when when lines came out initially back a few months ago,
they were favored against the Saints, the Panthers, the Seahawks
at home, Tennessee, and Indianapolis, with the only game where
they are underdogs and their first six is on the
(07:44):
road against the San Francisco forty nine ers. You pegged
that that Tennessee game as a kind of a hotspot
where you can really really look at the Cardinals as
a winner.
Speaker 4 (07:56):
You didn't, you?
Speaker 2 (07:58):
Yeah, I mean the titan are in a tough spot there.
They're going to be hitting the road for the second
straight week after playing Houston on Sunday, and Tennessee is
just going to be I think awful. Last year, Tennessee
was one of those teams that I had pegged is like, hey,
this could be a bad team, that could be a
(08:19):
good bet, And for like the first like five or
six weeks, I just was almost blind on Tennessee and
they killed me. And they killed me. But Arizona has
that mini buy to prepare and after playing at Seattle
on Thursday, so they're going to have a little extra
prep a little extra rest, which is always nice earlier
in the season because you'll see those, you know, the
(08:39):
nuts and bolts that have to be tightened early on,
and they'll be able to do that. So definitely they
have the rest advantage in this one. And I you know,
this is one of those spreads that were if you
can find a five and a half right now, I
would say go take it, because we talk about how
strong Arizona could be out of the gate and how
bad Tennessee is just going to be overall, and this
is kind of hanging at a dead number of five
(09:01):
and a half, just below that key number of six.
So if all goes according to plan, and you look
at this and say, well, you know, the Cardinals could
be realistic, you know, three and one at this point,
and Tennessee might be four and oh or sorry, oho
and four and so this line, this line, this five
and a half line, I don't expect there to be
there when we come around at week five.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
We have already seen the shift in the game against
the season oero against the Saints, where it was a
three and a half point spread to start shifted to
five and a half sometime.
Speaker 4 (09:35):
In the off season.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
I think that was after I think that was after
the car news and more recently it's even pushed to
six and a half.
Speaker 4 (09:46):
In a Week one game on the road.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
Is how how how good about my expectations for the
Cardinals that should be easily a double digit win. The talent,
the talent gap between the Cardinals ross sure in the
Saints roster is is drastic, but but you are pushing
the six and six and a half and you're getting
to that touchdown line, which makes it a little bit.
Speaker 4 (10:10):
You know, NFL games are known for one score games,
especially late in the game.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
So you know, home openers are always a little tricky
because you get the extra juice from the crowd.
Speaker 4 (10:23):
What do you think about that opening line?
Speaker 2 (10:26):
Opening? Well, I mean, if we want to talk about
the car, like moving from three and a half, it
wasn't five and a half for a lot of the summer.
And then as we get closer and the Saints realize like, oh,
we don't have a quarterback. I guess Rattler's our quarterback.
You know that moved to six and six and a half.
That that's a significant move because you're going through you
you know, you're getting off of that kind of dead
zone getting to six and then seeing it go to
(10:47):
six and a half, you know, they're they're going to
be a very popular teaser bet. They're going to be
the number one Survivor pick, that's for sure. And and
people have just kind of you know, heating up that
New Orleans is going to be terrible on paper, Yeah,
it looks like, you know, given the defensive improvements that
we see from Arizona, what they can do on offense,
which is very very I think I think can be
(11:08):
very good and very dynamic and balanced and give defenses fits.
You start flirting with like six and a half this
early in the season, I'm not sure because we Week
one is a tough week. Your defense usually has the
leg up from the offense. The offense still has to
you know, get its get its timing and momentum going.
(11:30):
Quarterbacks have to sync up with receivers, you know. So
you're asking Arizona to score a lot of points on
the road to cover a six and a half.
Speaker 4 (11:41):
We look at last season.
Speaker 3 (11:46):
What did you find from them last season in terms
of hout that then they went as you noted, eleven
and six against the spread last year, and then then
you talked about how there that version never of Murray
never came back. Yeah, they were six and four overall,
(12:09):
and in heading into the week ten by they were
leading the division and.
Speaker 4 (12:17):
Basically all they needed to do was beat Seattle.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Once and had good Like it wasn't like they had
an easy schedule out of the gate, but they took
They took Buffalo.
Speaker 4 (12:27):
They had a fear of a schedule coming out of
the game.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
They beat the crap out of the Rams. They took
Detroit toe to toe. They lost to a Washington team
that was you know, we see how quality Washington it was.
But to beat San Francisco and they stood in there
against some good teams, like you know, the Chargers and
the Bears were you know, serviceable to a certain extent.
So I think one of it was kind of whatever
(12:51):
flip with Murray, like when you have the turnover stack
up like he has that just kills drives and to
the defense last year was good, but they weren't great.
It was that game and in like protected, you know,
don't let anything in behind you will bend, but don't break.
And that was it, Like they just they didn't do
anything game changing. There was no like the pressure wasn't
good enough to create turnovers and fumbles and sacks and
(13:12):
and and give the ball back, give extra possessions to
the offense. That was kind of the thing. They would
back it up and slowly give away yards and bend
but don't break and get in the goal. And you know,
they were respectable in the red zone, did all right
on third downs, but there was nothing dangerous about that defense.
And I find that's like, that's why I'm higher on
Arizona this year because they recognized that and they made
(13:36):
a move to do it, I said, and the lead
in for it, I said, they're kind of striking while
the iron is hot, because we don't know what we're
going to get from San Francisco. It could be another
mash unit again, which can't handicap for. But I said,
Matt Stafford is like a hard sneeze away from being
on the on the disabled list, you know, he is
(13:56):
essentially like his back is in bad shade. And then
what what are you going to get from Sam Darnold
and a Seattle team that's kind of got it. You're
gonna get a Mike McDonald defense, which was great and
looked really good in the second half of last year,
although they did play some her team, so I'm still
kind of jury's out on that. So it could be
a very very high thing if Arizona can one limit
(14:18):
those offensive the offensive turnovers and to create some defensive takeaways.
And that's kind of what they're they're set up for here,
bringing in those guys up front to create some pass
rush that wasn't there last year.
Speaker 3 (14:31):
I described the defense last year they were a scrappy,
undermanned team that was really they were really disciplined, but yeah,
like all the important metrics they weren't good at. They
were not good on third down, they were not good
at pressure, they were not good at taking the ball away.
Speaker 4 (14:48):
And then the couple of.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
Metrics that I looked at is that they were last
and second to last in plays allowed per drive and
time allowed per drive. And so they were they just
like they were scrappy. They looked like they were doing
but they would just keep tick tick. And the one
of the saving grace for them was they were good
on fourth down, Like if if that happened, they were
(15:10):
good on fourth down, which saved them. And I think
I personally, I think a lot of those high leverage
situations defensively, their defense was unreliable, especially late in the year,
what led to force throws, uh murder. Like if you
look at some of those those interceptions that Kyler had,
there was the there was a fourth down throw that
(15:31):
was a pick six against Seattle.
Speaker 4 (15:33):
You have to make it. It's fourth down, you have
to make a throw. That was a bad throw.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
He had the pick against Minnesota again that was a
fourth down throw after you'd just given up the game
winning field goal.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
Eight of the of those eight interceptions, I think I
broke down as they were the four of them were
like you had to make a throw, and there was
there was it just didn't work. Like that, but let's
look like Coming up next on the rest of hereIt podcast,
The Best of Cardsons Talking the Way, let's move on
and talk about like this season and the bets to
(16:07):
make for the Cardinals. That's coming on next on riceups Read,
we're back on the Rise of Seite podcast, The Best
Cardinals Talking the Web, talking to Jason Logan from covers
dot Com, who has his picks and predictions for all
thirty two NFL teams that we're talking about the Ears
on the Cardinals for the twenty twenty five season. And
and we look at this and you've got your best
(16:28):
bets are are one that I think is kind of
a slam dunk and the other which probably won't make
the Cardinals fans super happy.
Speaker 4 (16:39):
The first one, and this is the slam dunk, is.
Speaker 3 (16:41):
That the Kyler Murray over thirty three and seventy five
and a half passing yards at that's not great value,
that's a minus one ten. But a healthy Kyler Murray
is gonna be right at around four thousand passing yards, right.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
Yeah, yeah, And I'm surprised too, like he hasn't gone
over four thousand in his career, but it's been injuries. So,
like you said, a healthy, healthy Murray gets there, and
you look at some of the teams like he could
he could get very very close to this by the
time we hit Halloween. Like based on some of these defenses,
Nola terrible defense, Carolina defensive progress, but still gives up
(17:18):
a ton of yard. I mean, they give up a
ton of yards last year. They can't be that much
more like, they can't be any worse than that, but
they We're still not gonna be great. You know. Even
San Francisco's defense people are kind of pointing to it
and being like, it's definitely not the same. That it's
good that that it was over the show. Yeah, you know,
and Tennessee and Indianapolis are not going to be good.
(17:40):
And then then they played My Cowboys in Week nine,
and even with Parsons, that defense was going to be bad.
Give up a ton of big plays. So things were
set up pretty well for Kyler Murray. The other thing
that I do like about them is that they don't
play a whole lot of games outdoors. Everything's indoors. I
think there's only maybe I think I added up maybe
four outdoor games all season, I want to say, and
(18:04):
so that's a lot of fast track. That's a lot
of like indoor, there's no wind, it's perfect conditions. Uh
those and you'll see an uptick in points when you
when you're just playing those indoor games compared to open
air stadium. So I think all those things kind of
line up for Murray as well too. And then he
has some great weapons around him. Harrison Junior. You know,
(18:24):
he'll continue he's a second year receiver now, they'll continue
to grow. And then McBride has just been a godsend
for that team as well. Yeah. Yeah, as as someone
who appreciate I almost named my son Witten, I can
appreciate a good tight end. So oh, so I.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
Think we're talking Cowboys Cowboys tight ends that because the
Cardinals had zero like there was We had a tight
end curse until McBride and that dates back to when
we let Gene Novichick go and go to the Cowboys.
Both of them ended up with the Cowboys and no
thechick had.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Yeah he did. He was one of my favorite players
on this team as a young boy.
Speaker 4 (19:02):
It was just revealed yourself to our fans as a Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
FANU whatever, you know what my fandom has died a
slow on debt. Like I've worked with covers for twenty
years now, and it's just like I used to get
really worked up on Sundays, and I honestly like it's
I very much separate the sports better and separate my fandom.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Oh well you have to because sports betting is not
for the heart. Yeah, I will find someone against you
don't want to.
Speaker 4 (19:27):
You won't make money with your heart on the bench.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
Well, go go read, Go read my Cowboys preview and
you'll see how Cowboys this year. And that was that
was before. That was like my first one that I
wrote before the whole Parson's debacles.
Speaker 3 (19:39):
So the other one, you said that the best bets
are the Cardinals to finish third in the NFC West
at plus two twenty. That that did that That hurts
Now in terms of a bet, I get it, but
that hurts.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
It's and you and I said this before we went on.
I can't handicap for injuries that haven't happened yet. Right,
So the Niners on paper are very very strong pending
injury concerns, which is something they have not been good
at avoiding the last few years. Right, But I can't
I can't all of a sudden discount them because I think,
you know, Ayuke's not going to be able to perform
(20:17):
at the same level. And the same can be said
for Matt Stafford. We talked about Matt Stafford, you know,
and his back issues. You know, if he goes down,
that team is done. Ski They're done. I don't think
they're They're not set up to succeed without them. And
then you know, you look at Seattle and a very
good defense. Hopefully they can pick up where they left off.
(20:39):
I like Sam Darnold as a QB. I liked them
last year. I thought he was going to be fine
in Minnesota, but he doesn't have the setup that he
had in Minnesota last year. So I mean this this
division could very much like I have it going Niners, Rams, Arizona, Seattle.
It could very much flip upside down, and it would
not surprise me whatsoever based on things. But it's for
(21:00):
me what led me to take them third. And I
do like Arizona, like I said, I think they're a
bet on team in terms of ats. But what hurt
me towards the end was that tail end of the
season they play three of the final four on the road,
and you have some teams that could be very much
in the playoff hunt. There you're at Houston in week fifteen,
(21:23):
you're hosting Atlanta, who's a team that could be playing
for its playoff life, and that one you're going to
Cincinnati a cold weather game in week seventeen, and then
you're at the Rams for what could very well be
a winning get in situation for both of those teams.
And we talked about how good they're promised looks in
(21:43):
the first few weeks, being favorites in five of the
first six games, while they're underdogs a lot at the
back end of the season, not massive underdogs. And you
look at the spreads. We're looking at nine spreads of
a field goal, so basically between minus three and plus three,
which tells you that odds makers kind of on the
fence about this. He starts seeing three and a halves,
things like that, two and a halves. It tells a
(22:03):
lot about the team. But when you have a lot
of those teams just you know, sticking between a field
goal and those are toss up games in the eyes,
the oddsmakers will change a lot. And we're looking at,
you know, some really tough games to finish out the season,
and the Rams aren't as backed up against it. I
would say at least they have that home game against
(22:24):
Arizona at the end of the season, and that's a
big one. It could be a very big one.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Well, those final six games for the Cardinals. It backs up,
there's final the six games. In the final six games,
they play four against division winners from last year too,
against the Rams, one against Tampa, one against Houston, and
then they've got the two games against Atlanta and Cincinnati,
who were in the mix till week eighteen.
Speaker 4 (22:45):
Yeah, so that is.
Speaker 3 (22:46):
And the Cardinals history of end of season in recent history.
So I understand, I understand. I was. I was on
a show for I think it was the Hour Lives
podcast that I just did, and I look at this team,
the Cardinals, and say, they won eight games last year
(23:09):
with a not with a bad defense and a good offense.
And they won eight games last year and their defense
is significantly better talent wise than it was a year ago,
and their offense is at least as good because basically
they they brought everyone back, which means I'm like, eight
(23:30):
wins last year this year should be ten to eleven
and in terms of a value pick that it's not
even it's looking at the first and second and I
can't remember what sports book it was that we were
looking at, but it was plus eleven hundred for to
go Rams Cardinals first second and plus thirteen hundred to
(23:52):
do Cardinals Rams.
Speaker 4 (23:54):
Both.
Speaker 3 (23:54):
With what we're looking at, we're like gap that would
both of those bets are good to make because if
you hit one, then then you hit big on one
of those. Because because of that, and we're both we
are both on a little bit down on San Francisco,
not necessarily for the help, but especially early on. They
don't have Brandon and I you probably for the first
(24:16):
six weeks of the season. Juwan Jennings is healthy, but
they don't. They also don't have Deepu Samuel. They do
have a significant changeover on defense, and while Robert Asola
is back, how long will it take for that new
group of players to catch on and so But but honestly,
(24:37):
I think the NFC West is going to have basically
four teams.
Speaker 4 (24:40):
Between eight and eight and twelve wins.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
Probably Yeah, yeah, I mean they could Arizona could win.
Like I said, it could come down to that final game.
They could win ten games and still be scratching in
Klawn And then you know, you look at what's happening
in the NFC North and you're hoping that you know,
if that's a Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota setup, then you're
you know, you're you're might get edged in one of
(25:05):
those final wildcard spots. That's the thing. I mean, I
could I could fully see them going over the wind
total of eight and a half and still not qualifying
for the postseason.
Speaker 4 (25:13):
Ye.
Speaker 3 (25:15):
So uh, I do like the over eight and a half,
but I like a little even better, just a little
better because it jumps. It was it plus one probably
about plus one twenty is the over nine and a half?
Speaker 4 (25:28):
Is that I'm seeing some sports books.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
Yeah, you could take those all, like they'll have the
different bars or different all totals and stuff like that. Yeah.
I mean, if you think they got ten wins in them,
I mean they they definitely have. You know, they can
get up to that fast art and if momentum means something,
then that could be. That could be, you know, a
big thing that carries them the rest of the way.
But just knowing the team's tendencies over the last few years,
(25:52):
and yeah, yeah, they I will say like that wee
gate bye is great. Right after that a little bit
of a reassessment, they actually got a good buy where
you look at some of these other teams, like I
think San Francisco has a late buy. They're like week fourteen,
Seattle's but the same and I think the Rams it
(26:13):
looks like everyone's off around that same time except for
San Francisco yep. And being of the injury you know,
snake bit and team that they are like that I
could really kill just kill their chances right off the bat.
Speaker 3 (26:26):
You're right that what will lose bets Murray's miskews. Murray
for his career has been pretty turnover averse except for
those final games seven games of last year. How do
you view that half of last season compared to the
totality of his career in terms of that.
Speaker 2 (26:49):
He's I mean, he's been good, but not quite good enough.
And I felt.
Speaker 3 (26:55):
That that that's been that That's the hardest thing for
Cardinals fans is that they had Patrick Mahomes expectations, which
was completely unfair because he did he did exceed all
expectations that were of him years one, two, and three,
and then from there, it's it's sort of, he's been good.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
And his rookie season was I remember like his rookie
season there was a lot of doubters that you know,
didn't think he should have went number one overall, and
he had a great rookie season. And then it's kind of,
we haven't seen him yet. We've seen Pete like little
hints back at those same levels.
Speaker 4 (27:33):
That game stretch of looking like an MVP.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
The first half of twenty twenty one, he was the
MVP favorite, and and well here's the here's the this
is I know I if you've ever paid attention, I
am a more optimistic fan because I grew up here,
so I'm a Cardinals fan. But at the same time,
I look at this twenty twenty five team and compare
it to talent wise twenty twenty one, because twenty twenty one,
(27:59):
what what shot them off the gate out of the
gate was not necessarily Murray's PLO, although he looked like
an mvpeat for the first half of that year, was
the defense out performing expectations and the defense played so well,
which led to Murray playing really well because he didn't
have those high leverage situations and I look at this defense,
especially early on the season, we could do that is
(28:21):
that this if the offense, which is a top ten
offense and a lot of metrics, just took a stick
forward in consistency and the defense goes from being below
average to a little bit above average. You're taking those
situations that Murray was in in that end of last season,
which led to those turnovers, he's not going to be in.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
And I.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
Have the potentially I look at twenty twenty five being
if we're looking at what Jonathan Gannon is built over
the first that the next step would be to do
something like they did in twenty twenty one.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
Yeah, trenches. I mean if you look at all the
top team, you look at Philly, and you look at
the Lions, and you look at Baltimore, all really good
in the trenches, right, And we talked about how improved
the defensive line could be for Arizona and their offensive
line I don't think gets enough credit as well too.
Just sturdy and steady, which is more than a lot
of teams can say. And if they can, like you said,
(29:17):
avoid those high leverage situations where you know you've fallen
behind on the score sheet and now you have to
go pass heavy. It takes away from them because they
are a nice, dynamic attack that can you don't know
what's coming at you. You can run with Connor, you
can hit short hits to McBride, you can go downfield.
They have to keep the defense guessing and in those
situations where they have to go pass heavy, and they
(29:39):
can bring pressure on Murray knowing that he has to
drop back and make a throw, then you know, then
you're then you're painting yourself into a corner. I don't
think we're going to see that early on because because
of the matchups. It will be interesting to see when
they start running into some tougher defenses. Especially, it's really
(29:59):
that that final stretch where the defenses could get a
little you know, Tampa Bay is not that like they
they're a terrible pass defense, so I mean they're set
up well here. But again it's like I said, it's
on it's don Murray to not yes, not kind of
Kyler Murray this one. It's just it's really in his hands.
(30:19):
The offensive line is there, you have, you have your guys,
you have a great I mean, the clock sticking on
James Connor. How long can he continue to be, you know, productive.
I don't think anyone expected him to be as productive
as he's been, you know, for for what the last
which he has been with them two three years now,
since coming since.
Speaker 4 (30:37):
Twenty twenty one, since twenty twenty one.
Speaker 2 (30:39):
This will be yeah you're five, Yeah, yeah, no. And
I don't think anyone expected that he was coming over
from Pittsburgh if I'm correct, right, was was solid and sound.
But he's been a monster for them. But you know,
how old is he?
Speaker 4 (30:53):
He turned thirty this year.
Speaker 2 (30:55):
So there it is. That's so you spell him that
you're picking up the mail car and go.
Speaker 3 (31:01):
That's why they hope that the goal is to increase
trade Benson's role to counteract that. But so that the
other thing that that I wanted to talk to that
we were talking a little bit before the show was
the big news that came last week, which was the
Micah Parsons trade, which it impacts the Cardinals doubly because
the Cardinals play the Packers and they play the Cowboys.
(31:23):
Now they were one and a half point underdogs for
both of those games when when the spreads first came out.
But I haven't seen any any sports books that go
out past week six. So I haven't seen how the
betting lines have been affected by this trade. Uh, you
were talking to me, what what can we expect? But
(31:46):
I guess and a lot of things were changed between
now and week seven, now and week nine, But just
the initial impact of Parsons, what is that doing to
those early games for Green Bay and for Dallas. So
so if we're looking at head Cardinals fans, what can
we expect from It's like the perception for the Cardinals
games again in those matchups.
Speaker 2 (32:07):
Sure, I'll kind of preface everything with saying like, usually
defensive players are not worth anything to spread. You've got
your quarterbacks, you have your elite wide receivers and running backs,
and maybe if a tight end like you know, a
Kelsey or you know a top tight end would go down,
those are the guys that would impact lines. Rarely do
you see a defensive player. In my twenty years of
(32:28):
working with covers, there's been maybe half a dozen guys
we're talking like TJ. Watt or TJ Watt, a JJ
Watt and Aaron Donald. Those guys big, big time game disruptors.
They were actually worth a point, maybe half a point.
I know it doesn't sound like a lot compared to
what they are, but they just that's that's the way
that NFL spreads are put together. They're just not worth
(32:49):
that much. And with Parsons, we saw some significant movement.
It's probably a little bit of knee jerk reaction because
everyone is running, so odds makers will have their initial
adjustment and they may say, okay, we're going to take
green Bay from one and a half to two two
point favorite now they have Parsons, and then the bets
come in and they say, okay, well we got to
move it to two and a half. So that's kind
(33:10):
of it's one the odds maker's reaction and to market
manipulation by the sports betters as well too. But looking
at some of the lines here, I mean you're seeing
a full point a half point, sometimes a point and
a half on differences in lines for the Cowboys and
the green Bay Packers. So if we look at week
(33:30):
one versus Detroit, for green Bay they went from minus
one and a half to minus two and a half,
and for Week two they went from minus two and
a half to minus three versus Washington, we're seeing about
a point difference in each of those moves for Dallas.
The Week one line is a bit misleading because that
did open six and a half, and in the midst
(33:51):
of all of the contract dispute stuff, it did move
to seven and now it's at seven and a half,
so that's it's a full point move. But the one
that really took to me is this Week two game.
It opened minus four and a half. It's now minus
three for the Cowboys hosting the Giants, who are a
team that a lot of people have their eyes on
as a bet on team, an improved team that they've
(34:13):
improved at the quarterback position in their pass rush could
be elite two very important parts. That's a point and
a half difference, like that's a that's a that's probably
the biggest move I've ever seen for a defensive player.
So to look at that and put it up against
what the green Day game could be in the Dallas
game could be, I mean, you're safe to say, you're
(34:33):
safe to say half a point. So you could say,
now they're going to be two point underdogs versus Green
Bay and might pick them for pick and pick them
at Dallas. However, after you start factoring in the things
like oh well, Arizona could be three and four right
out of the gate, or you know, could be could
(34:53):
the hell it could be undefeated by the time they
get to Green Bay, Like I'm not, it's not out
of the question.
Speaker 4 (34:58):
Just no, it's crazy one. It's not crazy no.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
And it's like you go into San Francisco, you're you're
a favorite against Seattle at home, big favorite against Tennessee.
You know, we talked to the Daniel Jones and Anthony
Richardson and the Indianapolis is a bit of a mess.
You know. Right now we could say, okay, well maybe
it's maybe it's Arizona plus two and a half, just
under that key number of a field goal. Yeah, well,
(35:23):
if they come in and look really really strong right
out of the gate, that could go back to the
one and a half that we see by the time
we get around to week seven. But I would say
the Parsons Parsons is worth in the eyes of oddsmaker's
half to a point and a half or to a
point to the spread, I'd say around a point.
Speaker 3 (35:39):
So kind of wrapping things up, you have your two
best bets, which were Kyler Murray over this passing our
total and third in the NFC West. If if you're
making bet, like if you're looking at some of these
take or pass, do you take over eight and a
half winds or under eight and a half wins for
the Cardinals.
Speaker 2 (35:59):
I it's minus one fifteen. I kind of want to shout,
I'd love it at like flat minus one ten. I
I want to say over eight and a half. Jah.
And that's and that's factoring the frigility of this of
this division. You know, it's factoring Matt Stafford's aching bones
and the Niners being snake bitten. I know it definitely
(36:21):
not another ram of possibility that they win nine games,
especially you're gonna get probably four or five wins right
out of the cap. Bool, So I will I'll say
over over it was minus one fifteen.
Speaker 3 (36:31):
Yeah, okay, what about the value of winning the division
at plus four twenty five? Not not necessarily making it
for Hey, you're putting a lot of your eggs in
this basket, but value wise, is that is that a
pickworth making?
Speaker 2 (36:46):
It's it's it's you know, it's not like taking Dallas
to win the NFC East. It's not like taking the
Raiders to win the As Like I'd have to go
and look at some of like the comparable propable division
winning odds there and say like, oh, like you know,
because they're not far out of it and they're going
to be really, really good. I would say take it now.
If you are looking to bet it, don't wait because
(37:07):
when they win four games out of the game, it's
going to shrink. It's going to shrink significantly. So if
you do like that, get it now and go around
and find it at the best best spot that you can,
because it's not going to be there.
Speaker 3 (37:19):
What do you have any other because you put two
best bets? Were there any that you considered that you
didn't publish?
Speaker 2 (37:28):
It was? I mean, really the hardest thing was was
figuring out whether they were going to finish second or
or hell, like I was flirting with like I could
take them to win this division as just like an
outright because I did. I did take San Francisco over
eleven and a half in the preview. I didn't say
they're going to win the division, but I did say
(37:48):
I did say I was going to take the Rams
to finish second. But all of that is really based
on not handicapping injuries that haven't happened yet and I don't,
you know, I can't. I can't predict things that haven't happened, right.
Speaker 4 (38:03):
Right, that's not it doesn't make sense to do.
Speaker 2 (38:05):
And when I and when I add up all the
things that haven't happened yet, I see Arizona is a
very good competitive team, uh that it might fall a
little bit short based on that closing schedule just being
very very difficult.
Speaker 4 (38:20):
Awesome. Well, you can find Jason's stuff overcovers dot com.
I'll have it.
Speaker 3 (38:24):
I'll have a link in the in the podcast episode,
uh info. I will also have this up on cards
wire as well, so you will be able to whether
you're hearing it through just the podcast, are coming across
it from cards Wire, there will be a place for
you to read it. Jason, thank you for so much,
soon for your time. Even though it is not super
(38:44):
optimistic for the card for Cardinals fans, we understand, I think,
but I.
Speaker 2 (38:47):
Think it is. I think it is like I think
it's just that you know, it could be, it could be,
it could be amazing, it could be uh a division title,
but you will not. I mean you have to, like
the Cards have to fall their way. To use a
really bad pun, how about that?
Speaker 4 (39:02):
Yes, that's true.
Speaker 3 (39:03):
And the truth is is like if you're candy capping
the division, you can't go by vibes.
Speaker 4 (39:11):
You have to look. You can't really go by vibes.
Speaker 3 (39:15):
And I will say vibes suggest here here, And this
is more more or less because of the trending of
Jonathan Gannon as a head coach and the things that.
Speaker 4 (39:24):
They've done is that they should improve. They should improve, and.
Speaker 3 (39:29):
Because we haven't seen anything to suggest that they're not
going to improve. But when you are looking from the
outside in, you have a RAMS team that with Matthew Stafford,
looks really really good. They went from an over the hill.
They went from an aging over a hill team to
a team that has a whole bunch of young stars
almost overnight.
Speaker 2 (39:48):
But yeah, that was the thing I remember listening to,
like the Matt Stafford interviews in like training camp last year,
and he was just like he walked into the locker
room and everyone's like, hey, you got are you on Instagram?
Are you on this? He's like, what, I don't know
what that is? Like he was talking about just how
out of touch he is with his teammates. But that
was a team that caught hot at the end of
last year and rode that momentum, and they're always like
(40:09):
the Rams are always going to have as long as
Stafford and McVay are on the field together, they're going
to have the better QB in most matchups, and they're
going to have the best head coach in the NFL,
hands down and most pot I'll put Sean McVay up
against any head coach because you just see what he
does every I mean, I don't think he can argue
that he's just made lemonade every single year out of
some times some lemons. So they're always going to have that.
(40:31):
And I base it upon like not because we're getting
back into it here, but the Rams are favorites in
thirteen games, and the Niners are favorites in fifteen games,
and then you have Seattle and you have the Cardinals
being favorites in seven of their seventeen games. So I
know I'm basing it on like this is this is
what the market is saying, and should everything go according
(40:54):
to plan, it will, but not everything goes according to
plan in this division.
Speaker 3 (40:58):
So yeah, don't hate Jason.
Speaker 4 (41:02):
He's just just running num those guys.
Speaker 2 (41:04):
And I just lost Mike and I just loved Michael Parsons,
like I'm I'm feeling that one. That was a yeah,
I don't think I talked for about twenty four hours
after that happened.
Speaker 3 (41:15):
That's that's that's no good then, hey, but hey the drum.
As a as a Cardinals fan who Cardinals fans traditionally
hate the Cowboys, dating back to.
Speaker 4 (41:27):
Those NFS East days.
Speaker 2 (41:28):
You love to see it.
Speaker 3 (41:31):
We love it. You love to see it. You love
to see Jerry Jones messing things up. Well, Jason, thank
you so much for your time. You can find this
is episode six hundred and ninety one. You can find
this as always hit head over to covers dot Com, which, honestly,
I'll tell you this, Covers dot Com gives you some
of the best betting covers you can find. Sportsbook Wire
(41:52):
my work over there. That is what we use with
our previews. We we go to covers and look at
the previous matchups. They have, they have injury data, they
have they have links to all the previous games.
Speaker 4 (42:01):
They've got.
Speaker 3 (42:02):
It's all the stats. Covers fantastic fantastic site.
Speaker 2 (42:06):
And free too, and there's there's no submer it's all free,
which is enoughs. It's absolutely enough, and I've worked there
for twenty years and I'm just like, this is We're
just giving it a stip away.
Speaker 4 (42:18):
Yes, yeah, that's good. Awesome. Well, thank you Jason for
you much time. That I wrap of this edition of
the show.
Speaker 3 (42:22):
We'll be back in a couple of days with me
and Seth getting ready for week one.
Speaker 4 (42:26):
Thanks for listening. As always, we'll be back again soon.
Speaker 5 (42:29):
Thanks for listening to the latest edition of the Rise
Up Sea Red podcast. Listen to previous episodes and subscribe
to the show on Apple Podcasts, Stitch your Radio, Audio Boom,
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(42:50):
We'll be back soon for the best hour of Cardinals
talk on the web, Rise Up Red, CEA, b Red
Sea Red, and of course Rise Up Sea.
Speaker 1 (42:58):
Red Za Za Za
Speaker 4 (43:25):
Z