BITCOIN & ALTCOINS CRASH AS MORGAN STANLEY TURNS BULLISH ON CRYPTO!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Hey, folks, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
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or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks,
it was a bloody Friday, as I'm sure many of

(00:26):
you heard. The big narrative out there in the news
item is that Trump is going to put one hundred
percent tariffy on China and much more. It's like deja
vou what we saw earlier this year in markets. Of course,
dumped on that news, Bitcoin massive crash down to just
about one hundred and six seven thousand around there. It's

(00:47):
funny it whipped down to the two hundred day moving average.
So let's see how far down this goes. But one
thing we're seeing here is that the daily RSI is
approaching that over soul zone. Now, what we've seen from
a cyclical pattern standpoint point is that when we hit
overbought re reverse, when we hit oversoul re reverse, it's
just a matter of patience because it does take some time.

(01:07):
But this is pretty much a massive flash crash, and
it happened across all markets. The stock market, SMP five hundred, NASDAG,
Dow Jones, everything down. The volatility index, the VIX is spiking.
So we're just seeing lots of volatility here based on
what's happening. So, guys, we want to be educated, not emotional, right,
So let's leave our emotions at the door, because you're

(01:28):
going to see a lot of people panicking. They're going
to be very fear driven, just like they were at
the beginning of the year when I was telling you, guys, hey,
the macro structure still intact. We're still in the bull market.
And guess what, guys, macro structure still intact. Now. Obviously,
if there's some major invalidation of the macro structure, then
I would say, hey, guys, that's it, wrap it up,

(01:49):
it's all done. Whatever happened here has changed everything. But
I don't think that's what's going to happen based on
multiple factor and data points. So if we look at
the amount of liquidations, this was actually the largest liquidation, guys,
in the history of crypto, Bigger than Luna, bigger than
COVID bigger than FTX. But this makes sense logically because

(02:11):
we're in a much larger market, right, There's more asset holders,
more liquidity. The crypto market has grown significantly since those
respective situations. And look at this. The sentiment has now
went back to fear. So what you're going to see
and I actually tweeted out about it. Let me read
the tweet. I think that will be easier to understand.
Flash crash, flush the lungs. And this comes right after

(02:34):
bitcoin pump to one hundred and twenty six thousand new
all time high, which flushed the shorts. Sentiment is now
in fear. As we saw earlier this year, retail will
run in fear with narratives of tariffs and government shutdown.
Get ready for the market to do the opposite of
the crowd. We've seen this time and time again. This
is why you can't be emotional about the markets. You

(02:56):
have to be educated. You've got to look at the
data points and folks, from a macro standpoint. Now, the
high timeframe, not the short term. The short term is bearish, right,
I want to make sure that's clear. I am saying
the short term is bearish. The bears are in control
on the weekly, the bears are in control on the daily,
but on the higher timeframe, bulls are still in control.
If we look at the monthly chart, this crash right

(03:19):
here is not even registering it as some major red candle.
It is like a little red candle, and we can
see that the bulls are still in control here. It
has not flipped bearish and the RSI has not hit
levels that we've seen as far as the zones for
the blow up tops. So that's the data. Okay, so
I'm not making it up. This is not a spin

(03:40):
on it. It's just the data as is. Bulls are
still in control. Now, as I mentioned earlier, could further
black swan events and random stuff pop up that drive
us into a bear market. Sure, I think there's definitely
the possibility of that, But what you got to look
at is the probability. Which one has the higher probability
of playing out. I believe, based on the data points

(04:01):
I'm sharing with you guys here that the bullmarket's not
over and I think we could see a V shape
recovery out of this flash crash. Now, another metric I'm
looking at is that bitcoin whales start to dump now
it's kind of hard. We may have to wait a
few days to see the data roll in, but so
far they've been accumulating a non stop. In fact, they've

(04:22):
ramped up their accumulation. If you caught my episode with
Brian from Sentiment that was published this morning, we went
through the data. The whales since the correction started in
August and continued into September, have been accumulating and the
data is showing that. And in addition, you know, macro
signals like the pie cycle top indicator nowhere close to flashing.
So we got a lot of different factors here screaming

(04:44):
bullmarket because the macro structure on the high time frame
is still intact. This is the same data points I
was sharing with you guys back in the terror crash
at beginning this year when people were screaming, oh my god,
it's over the end of the world, YadA, YadA. Right,
So same thing. What is happening here again? Now what's interesting,

(05:05):
This may be the most bullish indicator right here. Jim
Kramer started tweeting bearersh statements. You know, as the markets
were crashing. He says, very quick decline, not needed on
a Friday and could cause some heavy selling in some
of the most extended stocks. Then he said falls a
lot faster than it goes higher. Of course, everyone is

(05:27):
like inverse Kramer, this is very bullish because when he's
going this bearers right. We've seen it time and time again.
It never fails. The opposite happens. Now we'll it flip
on a dime that come Monday we start pumping to
new hues. Of course, not right. The markets are cyclical.
There's time for the market to digest all of this,
for traders and investors to digest this. But here's my thesis.

(05:51):
In addition to the data, you have some of the
most fearful things for retail once again, the tariff situation again,
plus government shut down, right, plus people are hearing about jobs.
You know, they're not certain if the Fed is going
to cut rates and all kinds of stuff. It's just
a matter of that tariff situation resolving like it like
some of it did earlier this year, or Trump pausing

(06:13):
it again, right, and the government reopening and the Fed
coming and saying hey, we're gonna cut rates again, and
YadA YadA, and then the market's flip. How many times
have we seen this right, and when you step away
from the emotions of it, this is where you can
see some of these patterns, the cyclical patterns playing over
and again. I'm not ignoring the bearsh scenario. I'm just

(06:36):
saying it has a lower probability of playing out than
the bullish So what's interesting though, guys, ahead of you
know this crash, we got some of the most bollish
news in this crypto industry. Morgan Stanley drops restrictions on
which wealth clients can own crypto funds. This news broke
this morning, very bullish news, right, so Morgan Stanley on

(06:59):
Friday It's financial Advisors that the firm was broadening access
to crypto investments to all clients and allowing such investments
in any type of account, including retirement accounts. CNBC has
learned starting October fifteenth, advisors will be able to pitch
crypto funds to any client. Previously, the option was limited

(07:20):
to those with an aggressive risk tolerance and at least
one point five million dollars in assets. Morgan Stanley will
rely on automated monitoring process to make sure that clients
aren't overly concentrated in the volatile asset class, but guys.
They are opening up more. And in yesterday's podcast, if
you recall I mentioned Stage Street, the massive Wall Street bank,

(07:42):
they stated in a new report that institutional investors plan
to double the exposure to crypto. So clearly Wall Street's bullish.
They've been buying a lot, they're opening up. Vanguard has
capitulated and much more. So. It's so interesting that this
news broke and then you have the massive crash, so
you can imagine these guys are going to buy up
like crazy. They're going to buy a dip. They always

(08:02):
do the opposite of the herd when people are afraid
and saying the top is in. And man, we've seen
this so many times, right, just this cyclical pattern of
the market cycles playing out now, folks. This episode is
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moving ahead, we got some interesting news here out of Texas.

(09:26):
So Texas lawmaker behind the state's crypto reserve bill says
ether maybe next. So I've often told you guys that
it all starts a bitcoin and then it moves to
all coins. It's the natural progression that we've seen time
and time again. So this year, the Texas legislator passed
a law to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the state,

(09:47):
opening the door for other cryptocurrencies in the future. According
to the original sponsor of the bill, ether could be
the next reserve asset. Speaking to coin Telegraph on Tuesday,
Texas State Senator Charles Schwartener discuss the implementation of the
Bitcoin Reserve Bill, signed into law by Governor Greg Abbott
in June. Though the text of the bill allows Texas

(10:07):
to hold other cryptocurrencies in a special fund outside the
state treasury, bitcoin was the only one to meet the
requirements at the time of passage. Here's a quote. I'm
really interested to see the speed at which they establish
the reserve and how it acts from a return standpoint.
If E theorem maintains its market cap over twenty four months,

(10:27):
I think it's reasonable and prudent to give direction that
E theorem could be added to the cryptocurrency reserve. So, guys,
I think over time they're going to add more all coins.
It just it starts a bitcoin, and I think the
doors are going to open up to other all coins,
all right. Moving ahead, Securitize in talks to go public
via Cantor's blank Check firm. So we continue to see

(10:51):
more and more crypto companies go public. One of the
big ones that is anticipated this quarter is Cracking that
they could go public. But it's great to see security,
you know, getting involved here because they are leading to
charge with tokenization. Remember Blackrock has invested in them. They
help Blackrock to launch their tokenize fund called Biddle, So

(11:11):
it makes sense. This is the time. We're in a bullmarket. Again,
no one does an IPO or goes public in a
bear market, right, So we're still in the bullmarket. So
that's why these firms are all doing this now ahead
of a market top. So Securitize, the tokenization platform behind
several major blockchain based investment products, including Blackrocks tokenized US

(11:31):
Treasury Fund, is reportedly in talks with Cancer Fitzgerald to
go public via a special purpose acquisition company or also
known as a SPAC. Bloomberg reported Friday, citing anonymous sources,
that Securitize is in discussions to merge with Canter Equity
partners to incorporated, a blank check firm backed by Cancer Fitzgerald.

(11:51):
The deal could value securitized at more than one billion dollars,
the report said, So pretty incredible. This would be a
company I would look to invest in if they go public,
because again they're leading to charge with tokenization. They are
heads and shoulders above the competitors in my opinion. All right,
moving ahead, look at this news. Banks explore launching a

(12:14):
stable coin linked to G seven currencies. So we're seeing
a massive stable coin initiative here, backed by tons of banks.
Let me give it to details. A group of banks
are in the process of exploring the launch of stable
coins focused on some of the world's biggest fiat currencies,
including the US dollar, Euro, and Japanese yen. According to

(12:35):
a Friday statement from BNP Paravis, banks including Bank of America,
Goldman Zachs, Deutsche Bank, and Cities said they had launched
a project to explore the issuance of a one to
one reserved back form of digital money that provides a
stable payment asset available on public blockchains linked to currencies
from the Group of Seven or G seven countries, the

(12:58):
United States, Canada, the United king France, Germany, Italy and Japan.
Here's a quote. The objective of the initiative is to
explore whether a new industry wide offering could bring the
benefits of digital assets and enhance competition across the market
while ensuring full compliance with regulatory requirements and best practice

(13:18):
risk managements at the banks. Folks, I think this is
a pseudo CBDC. You got the major banks, major countries involved,
and you know they're going to be plugged into their
respective central banks and treasuries and so forth. So we
got to be vigilant and watch what this is and
see how it's rolled out and what are the restrictions, right,

(13:40):
does it respect your rights? And much more? But this
has the smell of a CBDC. So we've got to
watch out here, folks. And some of the biggest banks
are involved, so it's going to be interesting to see
how these banks stable coins compete with the cryptonative companies
like your tether circles, ripples and so forth. And don't
get me wrong, you have companies like PayPal with p

(14:02):
y U, s D and much more. But I'm really
curious to see how the competition plays out between all
these things and who uses what the thing is with
these banks. They have a large customer base already, they
have the brand. But you know, the younger generation is
moving more towards UH non banking services or neo banks
versus the traditional banks. So there could be a generational

(14:25):
shift here where the banks don't get as much adoption
as they're thinking. But you know, as long as there's
boomers around, they will all right, because the majority of
boomers trust these banks. But we'll see, we'll see. I
think there's there's a whole study and all their conversation
here to to understand how this is gonna what type
of impact this is going to have? All right, moving

(14:46):
ahead or really on. Treasury launches nasnac's first tether gold
back reserve. This is interesting to many of you know
tether they have a tokenized gold product, and it looks
like this company here is looking to have that in
their treasury, which is interesting. Nasdaq listed wealth and asset

(15:06):
management services provider Prestige Wealth is rebranding to Aurillion Treasury
to launch the NASDACS first tether gold back Corporate Treasury.
As more Wall Street companies explore digital asset offerings, to
launch nasdaq's first tether gold treasury. The company announced the
closure of a one hundred million dollar private investment in

(15:28):
public equity financing round from Anchor Investor and Alpha Platform
Holding Company and other accredited investors including TG Commodities, sad CEV.
Oh my goodness, and the company said Friday, So this
is an interesting move when the one thing that how
this is related to crypto is that the gold is

(15:48):
tokenized on the blockchain. So that's where, uh, you know,
we could see other tokenized assets be used as treasury,
maybe real estate and things like that. But we'll have
to wait and see. I think things are too early.
We still need some clarity and we'll see how this
all plays out. Final news item here. You know, after
hearing about Polymarket's investment from the Intercontinental Exchange, the owner

(16:13):
of the New York CELCK Exchange, we got Polymarket's competitor, Calshi,
raising three hundred million dollars to expand prediction markets to
one hundred and forty countries. So prediction market competition heating
up here, folks. A lot of capital flowing around here,
so United States base prediction market. Calshi closed another major

(16:33):
funding round to bring its platform to more than one
hundred countries worldwide. Calshi completed a series defunding round of
over three hundred million dollars led by Sequoia Capital and
in recent Horoitz with participation by Paradigm. The company announced
on Friday the platform is immediately available in over one
hundred and forty countries. Calchi said in a statement shared

(16:55):
with coin Telegraph, adding that it has now emerged as
the world's own unified global prediction market and instantly added
billions of new potential customers. Very interesting here, folks, and
look at the amount of capital being raised. Right Clearly,
this technology powering different markets and platforms and creating new

(17:18):
financial products and so forth is the future. And you're
seeing a lot of people take the respective bets right.
You know. I've often stated if you're an entrepreneur, man,
now's the time put that pitchtick together, go out there.
You can at least get some money if you have
a good idea, of course, and the capitals here, a
lot of the hedge funds vcs have steered away from

(17:38):
you know, Web two and some of the traditional investments
to crypto now, so I think this is the next
big trade for them. So pretty interesting what's happening, folks,
that's the news. Let me know what your thing, especially
the market flash crash here pretty severe dump. But you know,
you look at the monthly chart, I think is not
even registering. And like I said, there is a bear

(17:59):
scenario and there's a bullish, but I believe the bullish
has the higher probability of playing out based on the data.
So if you appreciated this content, please support the podcast
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a write up tomorrow. It's one hundred percent free. It's
on substack link in the description. Check out my book
on Amazon, it's available in paperback, in digital, and my

(18:20):
course at mycryptocourse dot com. Folks, thank you so much
for tuning in. I appreciate you all, and I'll talk
to you all later

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