BITCOIN & CRYPTO ARE BEING MANIPULATED BUT BTC S&P500 RATIO SHOWS BULLISH MOVE COMING!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hey, everybody, welcome instead the Thinking Crypto Podcasts. You're home
for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
On your way in. Please let that subscribe button as
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If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify
or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks,
We've got some interesting news to talk about around bitcoin

(00:26):
and some manipulation possibly. Let me show you to chart here.
So bigcoin has been attempting to have a breakout, but
it keeps just chopping sideways. But one user, ted Pillows
on x highlighted what has been happening on the bitcoin chart,
and it's zoomed in on the one hour chart, and
you can see every time bigcoin has a big rally,
there's a big, massive correction here. And the pattern keeps

(00:48):
repeating over the past a few weeks and so forth,
and it looks like manipulation, but also, you know, it
could be market makers kind of holding things back on
till we have the better environment for the market to rally,
meaning that people are on holiday, they're distracted, there's not
major news or narratives out there right you know, market

(01:10):
makers like to run with narratives and buyer roomors sell
the news. This is how markets working. It's the same
thing in the stock market, right, So it could be that,
but it's painful to see that that every time we
have an attempted breakout, boom, big dump and uh man.
You know, eventually we've seen this time and time again. Though,
if we're patient enough and we just wait, you know,

(01:31):
kind of outweigh it in a sense, it will. You know,
markets don't go in one direction forever, right, it's up, down, sideways,
but they don't stay in the same position forever. They
continue to move ahead. And this is why there's this
saying time in the markets is better than trying to
time the markets right now. Obviously, on this podcast, I

(01:51):
tried to give you guys facts and data and say, hey,
here's when we could potentially see things so that we
can you know, kind of plan ahead. But obviously nothing
is in stone, nothing's guaranteed. We don't have a crystal
ball here, but we want to make sure that we're
at least using the data to form our thesis versus
guessing and use some data to back up what we're

(02:11):
thinking about. So again painful, painful stuff here. You're just
seeing these big dumps after the attempted breakout of bitcoin.
Here's a very interesting chart. I want to share it
with you guys. This one is pretty bolish, so Hendrik
Zeberg if I'm saying that right, A head macro economist
at Swiss Block tweeted at a chart that has the

(02:34):
comparison of Bitcoin versus the S and P five hundred.
So essentially, how's bitcoin moving according to the S and
P five hundred. So he says, the Bitcoin S and
P five hundred ratio has topped, But just like in
twenty twenty one, we stand right in front of a
balance in the ratio most likely to a value of
eighteen to nineteen. So this is on a scale of

(02:56):
zero to twenty four, so it goes back to twenty seventeen,
and it obviously covers twenty twenty and twenty twenty one.
And of course now he's highlighting what's happening, you know,
in the next potential move. He says, in twenty twenty one,
bitcoin swored one hundred and forty percent in this bounce.
Today bitcoin is likely to rally to one hundred and
fifty k ish in this same rally, while the SMP

(03:19):
five hundred soares into its blow off top around eighty
two hundred. But for all the bitcoin is a store
of value. Hardliners be very careful after this coming bounce
in the ratio. As I see it, this is the
final dance for bitcoin before the long good night. Enjoy
the blow off top. Now many of you know I'm

(03:41):
leaning more towards this scenario. As far as having the
higher probability of playing out, We've been talking about it
at nauseum.

Speaker 2 (03:48):
There are two scenarios.

Speaker 1 (03:48):
We have a dead cat bounce, Bitcoin does not go
to new all time highs, and you have a kind
of a small all coin rally. I think that scenario
is possible, but I think the high probability scenario is
that we have the push to the blow off top,
stock market, crypto, and much more. You have a true
alt season where everything is moving. And it's not because

(04:12):
I'm biased and I want that to happen. It's because
of the macro factors, which we've been talking about. Right
fed ending quantitative tightening. They've started quantitative easing in December.
They didn't even wait till twenty twenty six. Right raycuts continue.
Plus Trump is talking about the Tarot stimulus checks. Plus
you get crypto market structure, which is a huge, huge

(04:32):
narrative which I don't think market makers will leave on
the table. So you have all these things, crypto companies
looking to do IPOs, even AI companies looking to do IPOs.
So who to hell IPOs in a bear market? No one, right,
because then liquidity is dried up. But global liquidity is rising.
So again the macro factors, I believe outweighed some of

(04:52):
the bearers signals we're seeing on the charts, and we
do have to wait and see, you know what, which
snaro is going to play out? Because I don't think
any body can definitively say this is exactly what's gonna happen.
And that's a hard thing for people to say, right.
They need to know. Humans need, you know, the certainty,
and they can't handle the uncertainty unless you train yourself.
And thankfully I've been here since twenty sixteen, so I've

(05:15):
trained myself to look at multiple scenarios, think logically and reasonably,
not with my emotions. You see, many times people are
very emotions it's done, it's over right, because that gives
them some relief psychologically, Okay, okay, that's it. But or
some people say it's definitely not over and it's gonna
go to new all time highs. But we can't, you know,

(05:35):
again definitely say one way or the other. We're gonna
have to wait and see here. But this is a
very bullish chart and analysis comparing bitcoin to the S
and P five hundred and many of you know they're correlated.
They the history has shown us that, and it's all
following global liquidity. And the other factor, which I was
talking about yesterday's podcast, is that precious metals such as

(05:57):
gold and silver are a huge in the care that
the bull market's not over, because we've seen as gold
has ran up over the past two years, as it's
cooled down, bitcoin has ran up. And that's happening on
the micro right, but on the macro from a yearly standpoint,
we've seen when gold has top, Bitcoin starts running, the
charts showed it. So that's not made up stuff. That

(06:20):
is legit facts. So if you go line up the
charts you'll see it. So these things are great signs
that there's more left here in this ballmarket.

Speaker 2 (06:29):
Guys.

Speaker 1 (06:30):
Now, on the note of silver, which has been making
new all time highs. There's a headline here and I
want to share with you guys, so you know what's happening.
Major US bank blows up from silver trade headlines hide
the six hundred and seventy five million dollars margin shock
currently hitting traders. Many people believe the major US bank
is JP Morgan. I think a lot of you know,

(06:50):
we've seen it over years. JP Morgan has been manipulating
the silver market. Some of their traders got fined, the
bank itself got fined for that. So people are saying
it's JP Morgan that, you know, with silver blasting to
new highs, it's liquidating JP Morgan and some of these
other folks who have been trying to manipulate the market.
So it seems like JP Morgan is going long silver.

(07:12):
Now we shall see, you know. I highlight this because
it just shows there's some manipulation, and I am concerned
that in the future, as these banks and Wall Street
firms hold a lot of the crypto assets and a
big supply of it, they're going to manipulate it the
same way. It's gonna be harder for them to do
it because crypto is a global acid class that trades
twenty four to seven. You can see the supply, the wallets,

(07:35):
what's moving, and.

Speaker 2 (07:36):
So for it's gonna be a little bit harder.

Speaker 1 (07:38):
But look, you know they can eventually do that as
more people use them to custody their their crypto assets.

Speaker 2 (07:45):
Right.

Speaker 1 (07:45):
I think we know banks are going to launch these
things and they're gonna go to the regular average Joe
and Jane and say, hey, look, you leave your money
with us, or you have your money with us, you know,
invests in crypto with us, and we'll custody it for it.
I think we know that's kind. So we shall see.
But big players continue to buy and accumulate. So micro

(08:05):
Strategy Michael Sailor they bought another two hundred and twenty
nine bitcoin for approximately one hundred and eight point eight
million dollars.

Speaker 2 (08:13):
They bought their.

Speaker 1 (08:13):
Bitcoin at an approximate price of eighty eight thousand, five
hundred and sixty eight dollars. So big buy here by
Michael Sailor and even Tom Lee's bitmine their ether stash.
The report says here that has top four point one
million tokens as the crypto and cash holdings reach thirteen
point two billion dollars, and as we reported yesterday, they're

(08:35):
going to start staking a lot of that to earn
the yield. So I don't think these guys are buying
to watch the price just collapse, as people are saying.
I think they want to make the money off the
arbitrage of the stock. Now, will there eventually be a
bear market, Yeah, but I think these I don't think
these guys have been buying all this year, and again,

(08:56):
these guys are not idiots, and then just to watch
the price collapse wouldn't make sense. So again you have
this in conjunction with the other factors I've been sharing,
and that's why I think there's one more leg here, guys.
And I know people are frustrated, they're tired, they don't
want to hear anything positive. I've seen that the comments,
and it's because they're emotionally psychologically hurt, because they feel like, man,

(09:20):
this market sucks. You know, people have been saying it's
going to go do this, but then they don't realize
that we're talking probabilities here, not certainties, and that even
if something doesn't happen in the short term doesn't mean.

Speaker 2 (09:32):
It's not going to happen in the long term. Right.

Speaker 1 (09:34):
That's something I've learned in the markets. The market don't
exactly Timing is the hard part, right, markets don't always
line up with our timings. But if you stay in
it long enough, right the saying time in the market
is better than trying to time market, you will definitely win.
So the thesis is that as they central banks keep
printing and they keep debasing, the currency's asset prices are

(09:57):
going to go up.

Speaker 2 (09:58):
Guys.

Speaker 1 (09:58):
So that's why I'm not panicking because I'm not a
short term holder.

Speaker 2 (10:02):
I'm not.

Speaker 1 (10:02):
I don't have the gambling lottery mindset that I just
put my money into next week. I need the numbers
to know how much I want or you know, that's
not how I operate. I used to when I wasn't educated,
what wasn't financially educated. I'm listening to Jim Kramer and CNBC.
Now I don't do that, right. I think many of
you know. We go contrary to those folks because their

(10:23):
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Tech Giant to launch crypto wallet. Fintech l ones will
bomb Dragonfly executive. So Dragonflies hasib QURESHI from saying his
name right. Predicts big tech and fortune one hundred companies

(12:25):
will start building in crypto in twenty twenty six, but
that corporate l ones will fail to challenge e theorem
and solana. So I absolutly agree with this. You know.
One of the things I've been saying is that once
the Crypto Market Structure Bill is passed, the Claritiac, We're
going to see a surge in m and A mergers
and acquisitions. I believe trad FI firms are going to
approach crypto native firms and say, hey, we want to

(12:47):
buy you up right, we want to buy your exchange,
we want to buy your wallet, we want to buy
your blockchain data platform, and so forth, because it will
take years from to build these things. When these firms
have been established, they have a network effects and much more.
And then many of these corporates are going to try
to launch your own l ones. We see like for example, Sony,

(13:07):
they've launched Sonium. Right, it's a layer to an etherorem
and some of them may fail. But you know, it
also depends how they use it. If they're using it
privately just to move their internal things, that's fine. If
they try to build a public blockchain to compete against
the etherorems in Salona, I agree with Hasib here that

(13:27):
I don't think they're going to do well because again,
network effects and no one really will trust a kind
of centralized blockchain, especially if it's a public blockchain. Right,
So I agree here. I think this is a great,
great prediction and I think we could see the writing

(13:49):
on the wall that this is coming. And also I
believe that crypto companies will buy more tradify firms. Just
look at what coinbase and Ripple have been doing, right,
huge acquisitions. Look at this news Blackrocks Biddle hits one
hundred million dollars in payouts, showing tokenized finance at scale.

Speaker 2 (14:07):
So really really incredible stuff here.

Speaker 1 (14:10):
Man, the black Rocks products, they're ETFs, their tokenized fund,
all breaking records, all growing, and look, they're the world's
largest asset manager. They have the reputation to cache. They
can easily go pitch people and get them to adopt
their their products. So Blackrocks first tokenized money market fund
has paid out one hundred million dollars in cumulative dividends

(14:32):
since its launch, highlighting the growing real world use case
of tokenized securities amid rising institutional adoption. The milestone for
the Blackrock US, the Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund, was announced
Monday by Securitized, which serves as the funds issuer and
tokenization partner, overseeing on chain issuance and investor onboarding. Folks,

(14:52):
this will continue to grow because you're going to see
Blackrock and these other firms who have tokenized money market funds,
they're going to go push it to other parts of
the world. And because it's on the blockchain, is going
to be easy for people to you know, buy in
and adopt it. Right, So they're going to go to
the Middle East in different parts of the world and say, hey,
you want to get the yield, you want to get
access to your treasury bills whatever.

Speaker 2 (15:15):
Right here it is.

Speaker 1 (15:16):
And because it's going to tokenized twenty four to seven
real time set up, it's going to work out pretty well.
And here's another update on tokenization. So tokenized stocks have
stable coin moment as the market cap hits one point
two billion dollars. So tokenization of assets and specifically stocks

(15:37):
continues to grow. This huge demand here, So so let
me give you some details here. Demand for tokenized equities
has accelerated since their mainstream debut earlier this year, pointing
to this emerging asset class as a potential early signal
of broader blockchain adoption beyond bitcoin and stable coins. The
combined market capitalization of tokenized stocks has climbed to a

(15:58):
record one point two billion dollars, according to data from
token Terminal, driven by strong growth in September and December.
Here's a quote. Tokenized stocks today are like stable coins
in twenty twenty, token Terminal said, underscoring how early the
market remains. Stable Coins were still in their infancy in
twenty twenty, but they have since grown into a three

(16:20):
hundred billion dollars sector this year. So you may ask,
you know, well, how do I get access to these things?
How can I benefit from him?

Speaker 2 (16:29):
Certainly you can.

Speaker 1 (16:30):
Look at different exchanges and platforms that are doing tokenized stocks,
and then look at if they're doing defive because then
you can put it to work, not just hold it.

Speaker 2 (16:39):
Right.

Speaker 1 (16:39):
I'm sure many of you hold stocks in the traditional
way like I personally do as well. But if you
can hold it in a tokenized way and put it
to work to earn, that's a great way to you know,
benefit from all this. In addition, look at which blockchains
they're doing the tokenization of these assets on, and of
course hold the tokens for those. Right right now, we're seeing,

(17:00):
of course the major blockchains out of their Ethereum, Sowana,
the XRP, Ledger and others as well Avalanche, So I
have those in my portfolio. So you know what you
want to explore what's being built on the different chains. Okay,
moving ahead, China to let banks pay interest on digital
yu Wan wallets from January twenty twenty six. So clearly

(17:24):
you know the countries that ban crypto in the past, and.

Speaker 2 (17:27):
I mean anti crypto, they're building with a tech right.

Speaker 1 (17:30):
But the problem is, as I mentioned, I think with
the news that would Russia just I think it was
yesterday or the day before, is that these governments want
to control it because they're worried about capital flight. They're
worried about can we tax it and make sure we're
monitoring everything.

Speaker 2 (17:43):
That's the hold up or they will.

Speaker 1 (17:45):
Go all in, right, So they're going to start slow
and then opening it up overall. So China's Central Bank
is rolling out a new framework for the digital yu
Wan that will allow commercial banks to pay interest on
the ec and y wallet balance is starting January first,
twenty two, twenty six, a move officials say we'll push
the Central bank Digital currency CBDC beyond its original role

(18:06):
as a cash substitute. The new CBDC framework will allow
banks to treat the digitally one as part of their
asset liability operations. Lou Lie or Lou lay, a deputy
governor of the People's Bank of China, wrote in a
PBOC affiliated China Financial Times article published on Monday.

Speaker 2 (18:25):
So here's a quote.

Speaker 1 (18:26):
The digital RMB will move from the digital cash error
to the digital deposit currency era, said Lie in the report.
It has the functions of monetary value, skill, value storage.

Speaker 2 (18:39):
And cross border payments. You see what's happening, folks.

Speaker 1 (18:43):
Every central bank is building some sort of CBDC stable
coin or digital currency, obviously using blockchain tech. We don't
know which blockchain China is using. We're gonna have to
wait and see. It could be there using their own
proprietary but there are other trees that are using public blockchains,
like eve, Solana and much more so. Very interesting, folks.

(19:06):
This is the token economy I've been telling you guys
about for years, right, and that the governments, the markets,
and the economies will all run on blockchain rails.

Speaker 2 (19:16):
That is what's coming.

Speaker 1 (19:18):
Okay, look at this news. This is a little political,
but it's not meant to be political in the sense
that I'm trying to tell you.

Speaker 2 (19:24):
Who to vote for anything. I'm just reporting a news
for you.

Speaker 1 (19:27):
But as Democrats gain in odds to take us House
Waters Maxine Waters, Bash's SEC chair on crypto.

Speaker 2 (19:35):
So, you know, the.

Speaker 1 (19:37):
Crypto market's down a bit right now. The Democrats are
looking forward to the mid term elections, and we've seen
a lot of Democrats have starting to win. Now again,
there's a lot of issues outside of cryptos. I'm not
here to you know, preach about politics and so forth.
We're just looking at the angle of crypto and the
big bangs we've heard are looking to ramp up their

(19:58):
lobbying and as that been saying, Elizabeth Warren and somebody's
Democrats are going to get big fat checks to try
to fight cryptos. So we got to get that market
structure bill pass, guys. We got to get it done
before the midterm elections. And I'm hoping in Q one
of twenty twenty six that's done. Because you got again
Elizabeth Warren and her cronies, and you got vaccine wars.

(20:20):
These people who have flip flopped and have been mostly
anti crypto, you know, they're ready to get those big
bank checks, getting ready to you know, fight crypto because
those banks they don't like that you're earning stable coin
yield and staking because they want you to keep your
money in their checking and savings accounts where they can
give you next to nothing zero point zero one percent, right,

(20:44):
while they keep four percent of the interest that they
get from the Fed and the Treasury and so forth.
So Representative Maxine Waters, the ranking Democrat on the House
Financial Services Committee, call for a hearing with Security and
Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins to discuss his ryptom moves
in other topics. Her party has a strong chance to
take the House of Representatives' Maturity in twenty twenty six,

(21:06):
potentially moving her back into the spot as Committee yeer.
So again, there are other issues out there, you know
that's happening. The world is a big place. People have
different things that affect them in different ways. We're just
talking about crypto here. What we need to do, though,
is get that Market Structure bill passed. So even if
whoever wins, right the Democrats and Maxine Waters, Elizabeth Warren,

(21:28):
and they come back into power, they can't do much right,
even though the banks are lobbying the hell out of them.
So this is where my friends.

Speaker 2 (21:38):
So the market Structure gets done.

Speaker 1 (21:40):
It's in the Senate, and then once it's done, it
goes straight to President Trump.

Speaker 2 (21:44):
You know, they're going to try to go after.

Speaker 1 (21:48):
The Paul Atkins, but I think they're just using him
as kind of the poster child. But really they're very
upset about Trump and his crypto business. Right, I'm sure
many of you know about this.

Speaker 2 (21:58):
Look.

Speaker 1 (21:58):
I as a moderate and independence essentially right, I'm in
the middle. I vote for both parties depending on the
candidate and so forth. I agree with conservatives on one
on certain things, I agree with Democrats and certain things
I've said, like I'm not a final fan of the
Trump meme coin. I don't think he should have done that.
That's just a horrible look, but it is what it is.

(22:20):
And I've been on record and in the interviews on TV,
and so we're saying that overall he's a net he's
net positive, but the optics are just horrible with some
of the things he's been doing. But if we can
get Marcus Sharsture done, that will help prevent a lot

(22:40):
of headwinds and roadblocks ahead, you know, after the midterm elections.
So let's see, folks, fingers crossed. We've got to get
that Marcus structure built. Pass that is so needy because
you can see what's happening. These people are getting ready
to fight. And it's not that they necessarily care about cript.
It's just the banks lobbying. Hey, Maxine, you know what

(23:02):
you gotta do. Hey, Elizabeth Warren, you know what you
gotta do. Right, That's that's what they were doing under
the Biden administration. It wasn't so much Biden as Elizabeth
Warren was leading charge, you know, with her bank friends.
And she revealed her cards when she had that hearing
with Jamie Diamond, and uh, you know, they both teamed
up to bash Crypto and and and you know, Elizabeth
Warren is usually the one that's out.

Speaker 2 (23:23):
They're saying banks are this and bad. And but then
all of a sudden, Jamie, Jamie, isn't Crypto the most
horrible thing ever?

Speaker 1 (23:31):
And you know Jamie's out the Yes, Senator, it's the
most hard. It was pathetic and and of course you
know she had Gary Genster at that time, but he's
gone now. So you know, Maxine Waters, they're gonna put
on the dog and Pony show and they're gonna lie
about stuff and and obviously they're gonna use Trump. But
the point is, this technology is here to stay, and uh,

(23:53):
we got to get regulation around it to protect consumers
and allow innovation to flourish.

Speaker 2 (23:58):
Our folks, that's the news.

Speaker 1 (23:59):
We'll let me know what I Thank you for your
thoughts and comments below hit the thumbs up button.

Speaker 2 (24:03):
Folks.

Speaker 1 (24:04):
Be sure to support the podcast by subscribing to my
free email newsletter. It is one hundred percent free on
substack linkalb the description. I'll be putting out a write
up this week. Also check out my book on Amazon.
It's available in paperback and digital. Grab a copy, guys
and check it out. Also, if you want to expand
your knowledge about crypto, check out my course at Mycrypto

(24:24):
course dot com. Knowledge is power folks to understand all
aspects of the crypto market by taking this course and
linkal being the description. Folks, thank you so much for
tuning in. I appreciate you all and I'll talk to
you all later

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BITCOIN & CRYPTO ARE BEING MANIPULATED BUT BTC S&P500 RATIO SHOWS BULLISH MOVE COMING!

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