BULLISH REVERSAL COMING FOR CRYPTO? CITI BANK & SWIFT USDC STABLECOIN PAYMENTS!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hey, folks, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
On your way in. Please hit that subscribe button as
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or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks,
we have to take a look at the price of
bitcoin because it is currently training just above eighty five

(00:28):
thousand dollars, so the volatility continues. However, Bitcoin on the
daily chart, it's RSI is in the over soul zone
and very much in the extreme oversoul zone, so we
can expect some sort of reversals soon. We know markets
don't go forever in one direction, whether that's going up
or going down. Right, Markets are cyclical, so when we

(00:50):
look at these different factors and signals, we can get
an idea of what the next move might be. Now,
it doesn't mean it's going to pivot on a dime,
you know, and move really fast back upwards. It's just
you're going to eventually have the sellers get exhausted, right,
and that's where that RSI highlights the over soul zone.
And what we need to watch, as I've been saying,

(01:12):
is the reversal just going to be a relief rally,
you know, or some sort of retlacement and then continues
to roll over and go down, right, that is the scenario,
or does it continue to bullmark it? Now? I'm in
the camp that it continues the bull market because of
the macro factors, the FED ending QT and you know,
crypto market structure, bill and all these major milestones ahead,

(01:35):
and I think we do have room for another rally
to a blow off top. We have not seen the
characteristics of a blow off top in this bull market,
clearly very different, right, So that's why I think this
is just a very extended correction. Obviously, the stock market
is also correcting, so we're going to have to be
patient here and see how this all plays out here.

(01:57):
Analyst Bob Luca is highlighted, you know, for the stock
market specifically the S and P five hundred on the
weekly chart, that there's more downside here and you know,
the move upward could take us into Q one of
twenty twenty six. So this is what we've been talking
about for months, right, that this bullmarket seems like it's
going to extend into Q one twenty twenty six, simply

(02:19):
because of the massive hit the market took with the
tariff announcement earlier this year. And then you had another
you know, tariff announcement in October, which that many of
you know, big crash in crypto, right, So that's been
a major headwind, kind of shifting the timeline a bit.
And then you had other macro factors like the government
shut down, which affects liquidity and much more. So, I

(02:43):
don't believe this bullmarket's over. I do believe there's a
blow off top to get to. And even Ray Dalio,
you know, the big time macro investor, he was on
TV saying today, you know, as far as bubble, the
market is in a bubble, but he thinks it's eighty
percent there, that it's not at a hundred percent, and
that there will be an eventual top. So again we're

(03:05):
seeing different signs that the macro is telling us it's
not over, but that's not a guarantee of course. Now
if you jump back to bitcoin on the weekly, it
is also approaching the over soul zone. On the daily
it's more over sold. So again we could see a
reversal soon and we'll just have to see what that
reversal does. And you know how strong is it, is

(03:26):
it impulsive, is it corrective? And all that. Those are
things we're going to have to wait and see. Unfortunately,
we don't have a crystal ball to say this is
what's going to happen. But again you couple that with
we have not seen the characteristics and the things that
typically happen at the peak with retail euphoria and much more.
So I think there's still ways to go here, And

(03:46):
something I want to highlight. The market is in extreme
fear right now, and it's actually lower than when FTX
collapsed in around November December twenty twenty two. So that's
how bad it is out there, folks. So you know,
in addition to the RSI, you know, one of the
things we talked about, if the herd, if the majority
of people are like this is over, it's done, everybody's scared,
Big One's not, We're going to recover, then the market

(04:09):
does the opposite. We've seen that time and time again.
I don't make the rules. This is just how markets move.
They're driven by liquidity but also sentiment. Right, So we're
gonna have to be patient and let's see what happens.
But clearly things not going according to plan that we
like we were expecting. But this is the nature of markets, guys,
and the volatility is par for the course, so you

(04:32):
have to get used to it and have the macro outlook.
Now today, many of you know bit Wise they launched
their XRP SPOTYTF, and here James Seyfert and Bloomberg highlighted
some details about that. He posted earlier today. With a
bit over three hours left in trading, bit Wise XRP
ETF is almost at twenty two million dollars in trading today,

(04:54):
quite impressive for the second product to market a full
week after Canary Funds PC, which is the number one
launch by volume this year. So as we've been talking about,
there's a lot of demand for XRP, obviously a lot
of people are going to look at it and say, Tony,
we look at that price is jumping. Well, yeah, you know,
I've often stated positive news and these actions are not

(05:16):
going to have that type of impact. If the market
is in a down trend, right, if we are bottoming
out or in a uptrend, then positive news will have
an effect that concept, for whatever reason, is a hard
thing for many people to understand. They they simply need
to see that positive news drives the price up. But
that's not the case, and we have to understand the

(05:38):
cyclicality of the markets and what's happening with liquidity and
sentiment and much more. Eventually, these things will be priced
in and as people start buying, you know, the the product,
the holders are, the issuers are going to have to
buy more XRP, right they actually have to hold the asset.
So this is going to be great in the long term.
Eric Balachunis highlight that black Rocks Bitcoin ETF col I

(06:03):
bit they saw some inflows yesterday. So in addition to
what I said about the RSI hitting the over sol
zone for bitcoin and we're an extreme fear, we could
start to see some buying of the dip here, which
I think it makes sense smart money, you know, they
look to buy the blood on the streets. So even here,
Thomas fair highlighted that Blackrock bought six hundred and eighty

(06:26):
one bitcoin yesterday, so they're tracking the on chain data
for this, so this is a very good sign potentially
some buying happening here now. Twenty one shares. They launched
a leverage doge coin ETF, so we got very interesting
ETFs going live here. I don't really care for a
doge coin. It's a meme coin. Looks it's there. I

(06:47):
have a little bit in my profolio, but just for fun,
I don't hold a massive bag. I'm not expecting to
make money off of dogecoin. But falcon X has acquired
twenty one shares, so that acquisition is completed. So these
are market activities here, folks. So again, if you want
to invest in a leverage dose coin e you have,
go for it, but just know the risks, right, Leverage

(07:09):
generally obviously very risky, and meme coins also riskier, right,
the most riskiest aspect of the crypto market. Now, folks,
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(08:15):
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Link will be in the description. Now, Folks, today, Congressman

(08:36):
Warren Davidson, who I've had on the podcast and he's
been a crypto champion for many years. He was one
of the first. I think actually he was the first
to introduce crypto legislation. It was a Token Taxonomy Act.
I think this was back in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen
around there. My date may be off, but I know
you know he was the first to get this done. Well.

(08:58):
He introduced a big Coin for America Bill which would
codify the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Executive Order and eliminate capital
gains tax when paying taxes with bitcoin. So this is interesting, guys.
You could pay your taxes a bitcoin, and some people
may want to do that, So let me give you
some more details. Under the Bitcoin for America Act, proposed

(09:19):
by Representative Warren Davidson, a Republican from Ohio, bitcoin transferred
to the US government for tax payments would not be
subject to capital gains taxes and not be recorded as
a loss or gain for the taxpayers. So this is good,
and I think we need to get more where you
can spend your crypto. Maybe anything below one thousand dollars

(09:40):
or six hundred dollars is tax exempt. Right, there's no
capital gains transaction there. I think that would really help
improve things. But you know, we have to go one
step at a time. We still need to get the
market structure bill out of the Senate and then we
can do all these different things, because I think once
market truck in place, it's going to be easier to

(10:01):
get these more complex things, you know, as it relates
to the irs and much more. Okay, moving ahead, some
very big news. So City Bank and Swift are testing
payments and they are using the us d C stable coin.
This is incredible, folks. I mean, we're seeing the biggest
banks across the globe integrating crypto in many ways, using

(10:22):
stable coins, launching stable coins, launching custody, launching trading, tokenizing. Right,
so the inevitability is here. They cannot escape it. So
let me give you some details. So the major US
bank company, City Group, and the Belgium payment messaging firm

(10:42):
Swift said last week that they successfully completed a trial
that settled payment transactions between fiat and digital currencies. I mean,
come on, guys, this is amazing. So the trial used
USDC stable coins from the cryptocurrency platforms Circle in a
group and move those assets on a test network for

(11:03):
digital transactions. Circle did not immediately respond to a Wednesday
request for comments. So, guys, let me give you the
heads up. All the banks will do this right. Game
theory will play out. They all know disruptions at their
doorsteps that are trying to integrate these things. And as mentioned,
they're doing different type of initiatives with crypto and blockchain.

(11:24):
So we are in the then you win phase. Right.
They tried to fight this industry in this asset class
for many years, but they lost and now they're capitulating,
so really big stuff, all right, Moving ahead, Coinbase launched
eth back loans as on chain lending tops one point
two billion dollars. Now, I recently had Ben Schen from
coinbase on interviewed him a couple or three weeks ago

(11:47):
and we talked about their lending program for bitcoin. They've
expanded to ethereum, so eventually that will go to XRP,
salt and much more. And you know, I trust Coinbase.
They're a publicly traded company, highly regulated of they are
the second largest exchange in the world, obviously the largest
in the United States. So you can essentially borrow against

(12:07):
your Ether holdings and get usd C stable coined. So
this is power by morpho which is running on Base,
which is coinbas is Ethereum layer two. So very very
big news here. Now it's not available in New York.
You know, New York is tough man, so it's not
the exchange's wall. Many companies have to wait in line
for all types of approvals and licenses, and you know

(12:30):
there's there's that crazy thing called the bit license in
New York. It's it's tough, but eventually, you know, you
wait in line long enough and you get it. Final
news item. The SEC to hold a privacy and Financial
Surveillance roundtable in December. So this is great. We continue
to see the SEC's Crypto Task Force engage with the industry,

(12:52):
you know, hold roundtables about different topics. They've done this
for tokenization and much more so. They have scheduled a
roundtable discussion center on privacy and financial surveillance for December
as a renewed focus on privacy groups the cryptocurrency industry.
The Privacy roundtable is slated for December fifteenth. Like other
SEC roundtables, crypto industry executives and SEC officials will discuss

(13:16):
common pain points and solutions, but no HERD policy proposals
will be submitted. So essentially you got to have the dialogue.
The SEC has to listen to the industry stakeholders, what
are their pain points, what are things they're looking to do,
and then you know, try to figure out the right
rules and regulations to put into place. And you know,
I would love to see what the SEC thinks about

(13:37):
privacy coins and how that will fit in the market.
You know, one of the things I've said for a
long time is that governments they don't like privacy coins, right,
so you've got to be careful there. Look, z cash
has been going crazy. Not too long ago, it was
you know, breaking out, So could privacy be the next
major narrative possibly, but we'll have is he had the

(14:00):
government's handled it. I personally don't own any privacy coins.
If there's some sort of clarity from the governments in
the bear market, then I'll be buying some for the
next bull market, But right now I'm holding off. And look,
it's not possible to hold everything in your portfolio. So
I'm sure many of you who are holding ze cash
you're happy I don't hold any, and I'm happy for

(14:21):
you right that you're making money, because that's what we're
here to do. But you know what, we'll have to
wait and see. And if I do add some to
my portfolio, I'll certainly let you guys know. Folks, that's
the news. Let me know what you think. Leave your
thoughts and comments below, hit the thumbs up button, hit
the subscribe button if you haven't subscribed as yet, and folks,
you can support the podcast by subscribing to my free

(14:42):
email newsletter. It is one hundred percent free. Link will
be in the description. Check out my book on Amazon,
it's available in paperback and digital, and my course at
Mycrypto course dot com. This is a comprehensi of course
that teaches you everything you need to know about crypto.
So thank you so much for tuning in, folks. I
appreciate hide you all, and I'll talk to you all later.

(15:03):
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