Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
So again same methodologies that we've been talking about. One
sixty one point eight percent targets gets us to four
dollars and forty cents. The two sixty one pointy gets
us six dollars. Then if we look at the major
consolidation from the Q one highs to the Q one lows,
we're now talking about five dollars and forty cents and
eleven dollars and fifty five cents. So this for me,
right here, right now, those are the price targets that
(00:21):
you have to be aware of if you're holding and
investing in XRP.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
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learn more about Uphold and all the great services they offer,
visit the link in the description. Hey, folks, welcome into
the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm your host Tony Edward and
joining me today is Caleb Franzen, who is the founder
of Cubic Analytics. Caleb, great to see you.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
Great to see you too, man. We tend to do
these every month or so, and good things kind of
play that take place there after. So let's keep the
momentum going. Huh.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
Absolutely, you know. I always appreciate you incites your chart analysis,
and I think it's a perfect time for us to
be talking because bitcoin has just hit a new all
time highs today. We're recording on Monday, October sixth, I
think it crossed one hundred and twenty five eight hundred dollars.
How are you feeling about the market action?
Speaker 1 (02:16):
I'm bored personally. I mean, come on, is this the
best we can do? No, listen, I mean it obviously
feels great, but genuinely I am bored, you know. I
mean this is We're in a bull market. What do
bull markets do? They produce higher highs and higher lows.
This is why I continue to reiterate a bull of stance.
When we were trading between one toh eight and one
to twelve, for me, that was just the opportunity to
produce a higher low. As people probably know by now,
(02:37):
I do almost all my analysis based on technical analysis,
based on price structure, based on statistical indicators, intermarket relationships,
so on and so forth, all data backed, right, And so
when I'm looking at that opportunity to simply produce a
higher low within a broader up trend, that sounds like
a buying opportunity to me, Tony. So you know, I
was doing everything that I could to take advantage of
(02:59):
that dip. And by the way, those are the first
bitcoin purchases I was making since we were trading at
seventy nine thousand back in March, so I basically had
to wait sit on my hands for six months to
allocate more money. And uh, you know, I have to
trust my process and go through my system, and my
system said bye between one oh eight and one twelve.
So that's what I did. You know.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
It's funny, Kaila, because you know, folks like you who
are experienced were bullish. I was bullish, and I was
telling people, Hey, look, September is usually really rough with
the markets, it's pretty bloody. But we saw towards the
end of August things started to get really rough. And
then you know, by the middle of September, in the
latter half, people started to turn bearish. Oh no, what
(03:38):
the top is in? Oh no, government said, And then
I just saw the sentiment get into dumps. But it's
like the perfect setup for a faith melting rally exactly.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
And you know, I don't pay too much attention to seasonality.
In some context, I will, especially around presidential cycles so
on and so forth. But one of the things I
have learned with respect to seasonality is if we're supposed
to have a bad month, whether we're talking about equities
or whether we're talking about bitcoin and crypto, but we
actually go on to produce a really good month, basically
giving a middle finger to the bad seasonality that tends
(04:09):
to occur during really strong market environments, which means good
things are likely to continue to take place. So you know, again,
I was looking at that same seasonality dynamic. Everyone was
scared going into September because of that seasonality, and I
was looking at it and I was like, well, Okay,
the seasonality might be bad, but until we invalidate the
price structure, I'm not going to be bearished because we
call the month September. I mean that to me makes
(04:30):
absolutely zero sense. I'm only here to trade and invest
based on the price action.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Absolutely So let's take a look at the charge. Let's
start with bitcoin since it leads to the market. You know,
what are you seeing on that front and your outlook
for the short term, midterm, and even long term?
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Awesome? So let me go ahead and share my screen.
Here we are looking at bitcoin. I took this a
few hours back, so this was already when we were
trading so far ago at one hundred and twenty three
thy nine hundred. But I want to be very clear
here about where I'm targeting from a very in or
immediate term basis very simple. Here, just looking at the
one hundred and sixty one twenty percent target extensions in
(05:06):
fibonacci excuse me, in logarithmic scale, and that gets us
basically to one hundred and thirty seven thousand to one
hundred and thirty nine K. So right now we're trading
at one hundred and twenty five and change. Last time
I checked before we just jumped on here, we're like
eleven or twelve percent away from hitting those price targets.
So these are certainly, by no sense of the imagination,
some ultra lucrative, far reaching price targets. Here, I do
(05:28):
want to reiterate my cycle price target is still at
minimum one seventy five, but I think this looks fantastic.
I also have four different exponential moving averages on here
in blue, the twenty one day EMA in red, the
fifty five in green, the one hundred and in black,
the two hundred. I want to call attention to the
fact that this two hundred eighty exponential moving average is
(05:48):
about to break out of the prior all time highs
that to me looks like very bullish confirmation. We also
have price trading above all four of those moving averages,
with all four of them in a bullish formation and
a rising slope. This is giving us very clear weight
of the evidence that we are in uptrends, because when
we are in strongest phases of the uptrends, it looks
like exactly like this. With respect to the EMAS, I
(06:10):
also want to highlight the anchored volumeted average price. This
is telling us what the market's cost basis is pivoted
to a specific point in time, and so when we
look at the July and August all time highs basically
hitting that one twenty three one hundred and twenty four
K level, we're trading above that zone. I also want
to point this out because if we get a dip
(06:31):
in this market environment back towards one hundred and sixteen
thousand to one hundred and seventeen K, to flip these
anchored volumeated average prices into support after using it as
resistance here right that would be a very valid buying opportunity.
So that's definitely something I want to call attention to
right here, right now.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Very interesting. So you mentioned your next target is in
the range of one thirty six one thirty seven. Major target.
You mentioned your high time frame target is a minimum
of one seventy five. Are you looking at timing at all?
You know, some people are saying, hey, could we see
the blow off top this Q four or could this
bleed into twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
I mean, look, we're trading at one twenty five right now,
right so to get to one seventy five or fifty
thousand dollars away, that's like thirty four forty percent, you know,
so it's not too far away. We all know what
bitcoin can do during a bull market, especially towards the
latter stages of that ball market, where we really go
through that exponential phase. One of the amazing things about
this bull market, and Tony We've talked about this almost
(07:31):
every time I've come on the show, is we've just
been in a steady production of higher highs and higher lows.
It's been very linear. If anything else, we haven't really
gone through that exponential phase. So if and when it
does come, it could happen very quick. But all I
know right now is we just continue to produce those
higher highs and higher lows. It's an uptrend that means
that we should have an upside bias, means we should
be raising price targets, so on and so forth, and
(07:54):
so in that environment, I'm basically time agnostic, right. I've
been sharing that one hundred and seventy five K price target,
but since the middle of twenty twenty three. That was
more than two years ago, right, And so even in
twenty twenty three when I was sharing it, people were saying,
is that gonna happen this year? And I was like,
I don't know, probably not, but that's just my cycle target.
Is it gonna happen next year? Maybe? I mean it
could have. I really have no idea. So it's just
(08:16):
based on the TA It's just based on the price
structure itself. I'm relatively time agnostic.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
Yeah, for sure. And it certainly seems like bitcoin. You know,
we could if this thing extends to twenty twenty six,
could have a local top in Q four or to
your point, like we just goes to the bloff top
and everything wraps up. And just to confirm you are
anticipating a bear market post top.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
Yeah, but it's not my job as an investor to
predict tops in a bull market right, it's my job
as an investor to make the most of the bull
market environment while it's here. Right. So you know, I've
been an investor for a century, twelve years now, and
it's basically always been a fool's errand to predict a
bl market peak, right. And even if you do predict
(09:02):
that bullmarket peak properly, are you going to be able
to switch at the right time to buy assets on sale?
It's really hard to do, right. So all I recognize
is we're in an up trend. As an investor, that's
when we make money by owning assets, and so that's
the name of the game for me. It's really that simple.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Oh for sure, let's look at some of the market.
You know, what let's do to total all coin market
if you can pull up a chart on that and
how things.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
Are course, Okay, I want to start with one thing first, actually,
which is actually looking at bitcoin priced in global currencies.
So what I'm doing here you can actually see it
in the top left corner, is I'm taking bitcoin price
in dollars and I'm multiplying it by the US dollar index,
so that allows us to offset the equation here and
look at bitcoin price in the basket of euros, yen,
(09:52):
Canadian dollars, so on and so forth. This is also
making new all time highs right here, right now today.
So a lot of people people tend to think, oh,
this price action is only happening because of a week dollar.
It's actually not true. It's happening because of weak global
fiat currencies, not necessarily just because of a week dollar.
(10:12):
Also on the back of bitcoin. Relative to my global
M two model, which looks like this right, so we're
getting a lot of really great confirmations here, looking super
super fantastic. You asked about total here we go. This
to me is the key chart to be paying attention to.
It's total two, which excludes Bitcoin, and then I'm manually
(10:32):
extracting stable coins USDT and USDC. This is not yet
made new all time highs yet. If we look at
this level right, this has not actually produced those new
all time highs getting out of this box. But we
are currently making new cycle highs literally right here, right
now today. Based on the Fibonacci level of this latest
(10:53):
consolidation that gets us to two point five trillion, We're
currently trading at one point five trillion. You do the math,
that's pretty good upside from here, you.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Know, Caleb, I've never seen anyone do what you just
did with the bitcoin by the global currencies. That's pretty cool.
Are you putting that on Trading View or anything like that.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
I'm not sharing it on trading View. I've been talking
about this on my substack. I've been talking about it
on x for quite a while. Now. This is I
think this is like the shit right here. Excuse my language,
but I mean this is there's a lot of alpha
in this, right because we're now able to look at
not bitcoin just in dollars, or not bitcoin just in
euros or in Swiss frank or and yend, but in everything, right,
And I think that's really important.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
Yeah, and this backs up the thesis of like you said,
currency debasement across the globe. Right, this is the fiat
currency system. They have to keep printing as they debase,
asset prices go higher. And I don't think a lot
of people realize, you know, the concept of that. But
also to see it on the chart like this is
pretty cool. That's really great.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
Another thing I want to mention also is like everyone
misunderstands the US dollar. I want to call attention to
the fact that the Dixie today is trading at the
exact same level it was in mid April when bitcoin
was trading around seventy eight seventy nine thousand, So the
Dixie is basically flatlined over the course of the past
six months, during which period bitcoin has gone from seventy
nine thousand, actually even lower. I think we got as
(12:14):
low as seventy four k right during which time bitcoin
has gone from seventy four thousand to one hundred and
twenty five thousand, So we have not needed to see
the dollar fall relative to other global currencies for bitcoin
and other risk assets to go up. What's actually been
the most lucrative environment for risk assets to go up,
whether we're talking about bitcoin or equities, has been a
stable dollar environment. That's what we've been in for quite
(12:36):
some time now, the last six months, so, what we've
been in for the last three months, the last four months,
so on and so forth, and so I think that's
really important as well. A lot of people just tend
to think, oh, we need a weaker dollar in order
for risk assets to go up, when you actually look
at the correlations, especially over the past few years, past
eighteen months, specifically, they've been perfectly correlated in lockstep with
each other, risk assets and the Dixie moving together.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Hard question for you in regards to the total market
cap or a total two well, I should say total
market cap. Do you see us going near the eight
to ten trillion dollar mark? You know, if you're using
elliot wave or Fibonacci extensions.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
If you're gonna use Fibonacci's I'll trust your work on that.
I mean, that makes perfect sense to me, right, I mean,
it's really hard to come up with price targets when
you're getting into price discovery because we have no clear
distinct levels of market memory in order to base where
we are likely to go, where's the next magnet for price?
And so the best way we can really do that
is with with Fibonacci levels, looking at the one twenty three,
(13:33):
the one sixty one, the two sixty one, so on
and so forth. For me personally, I don't use elliot
wave analysis in any of my work, but for some
people they find a way to make it work, so
kudos to them.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
Let's dive into like individual all coins that we could
start with e theorem.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
You want to start with eth mm hmm I'm down
to start with eth brother. Okay, let's see here share.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
My screen looks like it wants to hit five K
this week.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
Hey, it might. All I see is that we're consolidating
above the cycle highs, flipping it in the support. I
was sharing this setup in real time on X and
over on my newsletter, and now we also have this
bullflag breaking out literally here in just the past few days.
This to me is crystal clear bul markets price structure.
I've said it once, I'll say it again. I was
(14:19):
taught the best way to make money as an investor
is to be long during bull markets because this is
likely to continue to trend higher as I think about
price targets for this. Now, as we zoom in on
the structure, we flip the chart in a logarithmic scale. Again,
we're going to use the same strategies and tools that
we were just talking about. The one hundred and sixty
one twinty percent target of the recent high to low
move that gets us to fifty eight hundred. If we're
(14:40):
looking at the two sixty one pointy that gets us
a seventy five hundred for ethereum. If we look at
the Q four highs to the April lows. We're now
talking about a one to sixty one twenty percent target
of eight thousand, one hundred, so we're currently trading at
forty seven hundred. And again, if we think about this
cycle environment and the fact that we you have not
necessarily gone through that exponential phase, ETH relative to BTC
(15:04):
has not been able to materially stay in an up trend.
Maybe that's starting to change. If those things are going
to take place, aka the exponential phase, and ETH continuing
to outperform BTC, why can't eighty one hundred be a
reasonable price target to the upside? Right?
Speaker 2 (15:21):
And then rookie question for you, So when you're using
the Fibonacci extensions, I know that they call it the
golden ratio to one point sixty one eight, right, But
what about those higher extensions a two point whatever and
the end a four point two to three six extension?
Are those they have a lower probability of getting their assets?
Speaker 1 (15:40):
That is, they do have a lower probability. So let's
go back to the chart that I was just sharing.
So you'll notice here as I'm looking at this retlacement,
I am including the two sixty one pointy percent to
get the seventy five hundred. What I did is I
also looked at the two sixty one pointy percent of
this retracement and that gets us to twenty five thousand.
So for me, right here, right now, I don't feel
(16:03):
comfortable to come on and say we're going to twenty
five thousand, buckle up. I would love for everyone who
owns Ethereum for that to take place, trust me, I
really would, but I can't. In you know, my method
of analysis, I take things one step at a time.
Before we can start talking about twenty five thousand, let's
first get to eighty one hundred and then we can
talk about twenty five k.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Yeah, that definitely makes sense, and personally, I'm hoping we could,
you know, wick to ten k after eight. That'd be
nice as an eathholder. But you know, what about Solana?
What are you seeing on that front?
Speaker 1 (16:40):
Okay, so for Solana, we're going to do a few
things here very similar. I've been super encouraged. I was
telling my premium members of Cubic Analytics and our live
streams that this was back when you were trading up here. Actually,
I was saying, if we get a decline back into
this blue zone, which aligns with the fifty percent and
sixty one point eight percent replacement of this major Fibonacci extension.
(17:03):
If we get back down there, that's basically the backup
the truck zone. So I'm very hopeful that my premium
subscribers to Cuban Analytics follow through on that, because now
the upside price targets are three hundred and forty two
and four hundred and twenty. I think I've actually come
on your show, Tony, and we've talked about this four
hundred and twenty dollars price target before. As long as
we stay above this fifty percent level basically above one
(17:25):
ninety five, I think we're going to four twenty. So
pretty clear risk management here. If we fall below one
ninety five, you get stopped out. If we get up
to these price targets between three forty two and four
to twenty, you start to take a little bit of profits, right,
It's pretty simple. I think one of the things I'm
super encouraged about here with the current Solana price structure
is if we look at Solana relative to Bitcoin. I
was pretty nervous about this breakdown here, right because this
(17:48):
level acted to support for basically the entirety of twenty
twenty four. We break down, we flip it into resistance,
we make new lows, then we flip it into resistance
once again, and we make even more new lows. Now
what have we started to do? We formed a new
base here, We've achieved a breakout back above that level,
got rejected at a perfect spot here that fifty to
(18:10):
sixty one percent range, cooled right back down into the range,
and now we're starting to re accelerate again. And so
if this works as well, why can't solon a relative
to bitcoin go all the way up here to this
one sixty one percent. That's exactly what the price structure
is telling us to target. And I think that's the
reasonable place to be paying attention.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
Very interesting. And then on the XRP front, what are
you seeing there?
Speaker 1 (18:34):
Okay, XRP, let's talk about it. So super coiling price action,
But I want to call attention a few basic things.
Right here, we produce higher highs, and now since then
we've also produced these higher highs. But over the course
of the past three four months, we've basically been tightening
up right. But this this production right here of lower
(18:57):
highs is just allowing price to reset here, to cool
down in my opinion, for the next leg higher. So again,
same methodologies that we've been talking about. One's sixty one
point eight percent targets gets us to four dollars and
forty cents. The two sixty one point eight gets us
is six dollars. Then if we look at the major
consolidation from the Q one highs to the Q one lows,
(19:17):
we're now talking about five dollars and forty cents and
eleven dollars and fifty five cents. So this for me,
right here, right now, those are the price targets that
you have to be aware of if you're holding and
investing in XRP, because I think so long as we
stay above two dollars and sixty eight cents, these price
targets are where we're headed. If we fall below two
sixty eight, you can get stopped out, you can reduce
some of your exposure, you can slow down your DCA,
(19:40):
whatever the case is. You can have a thesis an
upside bias. We're going to get here, but you have
to have an invalidation criteria. It's okay to be wrong,
it's just not okay to stay wrong. So if we
fall below that range, it's somewhat of a structure in validation, right,
it's a bullish invalidation. And so if that takes place,
you can adjust, you can. So, so long as we stay
(20:01):
above two hours and sixty eight cents, we're going much higher.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Your lips to God's ears, catob for that eleven dollars,
I would love that.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
Look and look, it's not me, right, I'm not the
one coming up with these price targets. It's the chart itself,
it's the structure itself. I have a phrase. Right, you
can ask one hundred economists what's taking place in the market.
You're probably gonna get ninety to one hundred answers. You
can ask one hundred technicians what's taking place in the market.
At most you're gonna get five or ten answers. Right,
(20:31):
Because price is price. It's the only thing that's the
actual truth in the market. Opinions are a diamond dozen.
We only get paid by one simple thing. As investors.
We buy low and we sell high, so everything starts
and ends with price. Or we buy high and sell higher,
so once again, everything starts and ends with price. That's
why all of my analysis basically focuses solely on price,
(20:53):
and all of my targets, all of my risk management
is based specifically on price. It's not based on vibes,
it's not based on moon cycles, based on how I
wake up in the morning. It's all based on price.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
Yeah. Absolutely, And I appreciate your point of views and
your data analysis and much more. And that's why I've
been following you, That's why I have you on the shows.
Certainly certainly appreciate the value bringing. So, you know, Gilber,
I would love to get your thoughts on You know,
a lot of people are scared too, because here's what's happening.
The markets are ripping in the face of government shut down,
(21:25):
huge layups. Right, people are worried about recession. They're saying,
you know, is the FED going to cut again come
later this month, things like that. What are your thoughts
on what's happening in the macro.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
So from a macroeconomic perspective, Right, I have my undergraduate
degree in macroeconomics. This is what I studied in college.
But again, I'm not really going to be using macro
to make actual investment decisions. If anything, I'm using it
to basically pressure test what I'm seeing in terms of
price action in the market. And so when I look
at the market, when I look at the economy, excuse me,
I continue to see resilient and dynamic macroeconomic conditions. Is
(21:59):
everything perfect? No? Is everything good enough to support the
uptrend that we're seeing in risk assets? The answer is
and has been yes to me. That's all that matters. Right,
So let's actually contextualize some of this. We have Q
two real GDP growth at three point eight percent. We
have the expectation for Q three coming in at three
point nine percent. We have prime age unemployment rate, which
(22:23):
is basically people between the age of twenty five and
fifty four, at three point eight percent that's at or
near historic lows. We have labor force participation on the rise.
All of those things are taking place in an environment
where real GDP is strong, industrial production is on the rise,
retail sales is beating expectations, and there was something else. Oh,
(22:44):
there's also real nominal wage growth, or there's both real
and nominal wage growth, right, So wages are growing at
like four point one percent year over year. This is
an environment that's all conducive generally speaking, for asset prices
to continue to trend higher. So government show down for
me means absolutely nothing. If anything, you can make the
case that it's been a bullish catalyst. But again, as
(23:06):
I look at overall market conditions, even if I'm just
gonna specifically focus on the stock market itself, we have
forward twelve month earnings for the S and P five
hundred making new all time highs. So that's telling us
that all the Wall Streets analysts, they're all coming together,
not coming together before they do the work, but after
they do the work, and they're all revising expectations of
(23:28):
forward earnings to the upside. That's a really good sign, right,
That's exactly what we expect to see in these kinds
of market market environments, and so everything is coming together
here to support a continuation of this uptrend. And recognizing
that simple fact we are in an uptrend, we can
do two things with that piece of information. We can
either align with that uptrend or we can fight that uptrend.
(23:51):
And I've learned over the course of my twelve years
as an investor. Unfortunate I had to learn this the
hard way. It's way more lucrative if you're focused on
making money in the market to align with the uptrend
rather than to fight it.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
Yeah, as it would say, the trend is your friend
until it's not right.
Speaker 1 (24:06):
Yeah, And you know, you know, you've you've mentioned that
exact line several times on here, and I've also mentioned
something along the lines of when the music's playing, you
have to dance. And this continues to be a market
environment where the music is playing, we have to dance.
Uptrend conditions are intact. We have credit spreads making new
cycle lows. We have even we even have something like
(24:27):
high yield corporate bonds junk bonds trading it new multi
year highs. Right, and if we adjust them for the
divindan yield, they're trading at all time highs. That does
not happen in an environment where investors are concerned about
credit risk. If there's limited to zero credit risk. I
don't want to say that there's zero credit risk in
this environment, but if there's limited credit risk in this environment,
(24:47):
why can't risk assets continue to trade higher? Right? So, again,
as we're looking at the weight of the evidence here,
everything is coming together. Higher highs and higher lows, increasing
risk appetite, decent map micro conditions, the FED is cutting
interest rates. All these things are taking place. We have
to continue to have an upward bias.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
Yeah, absolutely well, said Caleb Man. Always great info. We're
gonna have to do another one next month. You know,
hopefully we're ripping to new highs come November. But this
is great stuff, and folks, check out Caleb's ex account
and his newsletter links will be in a description. Go
follow check it out. Always great info.
Speaker 1 (25:26):
Thanks for having me, Tony. We'll do this again soon