CRYPTO IN EXTREME FEAR! JIM CRAMER TURNS BEARISH ON BITCOIN & JAPAN STIMULUS QE!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward
on your weight in. Please let that subscribe button as
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If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify
or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks,
let's kick it off by talking about the price of bitcoin,

(00:26):
because on the daily chart we are in the extreme
oversould based on the RSI. It's hitting levels that we
saw earlier this year with the tariff news selloff. So
that's a very good sign. The bottom is near and
we know markets are cyclical right now. People may not
want to hear that a lot of people are getting emotional, right,

(00:46):
but remember, check your emotions at the door, because if
you're investing with your emotions, you're going to get wrecked.
So if we just look simply look at the data
and go by the textbook of how markets work, we
are due for a reversal. Now does that mean we're
going to see a straight shot up to all time highs?
Of course not right, It's going to be stair stepping

(01:06):
our way out higher highs. And higher lows. The same
thing I was telling you all back in the beginning
of twenty twenty five with the tariff news selloff. I
remember people were saying, that's it, it's over. Trump crashed
the market, YadA, YadA. I was telling you guys, no,
wait a minute, the structure's still intact here. We're going
to see some sort of reversal. Now. I do want
to make sure I caveat my statements by saying, I

(01:28):
don't know if the reversal is simply a relief rally
that will just be like a retrace and then we
roll over to lower lows. Because some people are saying
this is the top of the market. I personally don't
believe it is, but that's a possibility. We can't rule
it out, or we stare step our way out and
start hitting new highs as we head into twenty twenty six. So,

(01:50):
as I've been talking about, this market is extending into
twenty twenty six. So the market right now is an
extreme fear. So you got the RSI in the over
so extremely over sold, and you got the sentiment in
the dumps. All of these things are conducive to a reversal. Again,
this is textbook. This is not emotions. There's not any
bias or anything, just that this is what the market does.

(02:12):
Go look at the stock market, go study the charge
to yourself. You will see these things now. Julian Bettelo,
who works with macro investor Ral Powell, also shared a
chart showing Bitcoin's RSI from a fourteen day perspective, and
it's also extremely over sold. So multiple models and data
points are showing that a reversal is coming again. Though

(02:34):
you know, the bearers scenario is that is just a
relief rally retrace and then it continues to go down
because the bears believe the market top is in. The
bullish case is just this is a local top and
we will work our way up to higher highs now
from the bitcoin yearly standpoint, so this is very much
the macro view. What we've seen historically is three years

(02:55):
of green candles followed by one red candle year. So
that's usually the bear market year everything goes down, right,
So we saw this in twenty eighteen and of course
twenty twenty two, and we've had two green candle years
coming out of twenty twenty two. But this year right now,
we're in the negative. Now the year's not over obviously,

(03:15):
well right now it's not looking good. So let's see
if the market can rally into the end of the
year and continue into January. I don't know, but you know,
this certainly changes things. It's a big deviation from how
the cyclical pattern has played out. Now. I don't know
if this is going to be the case moving forward,
because the market moves with liquidity, and this year, because

(03:38):
of the terriff situation, the government shut down which was extended,
has slowed down the liquidity and disrupted the timeline. I've
been on record saying that since the tar offf crash
earlier this year, that this market timeline is going to
get pushed back, and that you know, we could see
a blow off top come Q one of twenty twenty
six or even Q two. Again, I don't have a

(03:59):
crystal ball, but I'm just going based off the data.
So this is a big deviation. And here Hunter Horseley
of Bitwise Asset Management, he talked a bit about this.
He says, here is what I see happening on four
your cycles, the common view people believe in for your cycles,
and that twenty twenty six will thus be a down

(04:20):
year for bitcoin. First order effect. People thus sell in
twenty twenty five to avoid the down market year. Second
order effect. The twenty twenty five sellers caused twenty twenty
five to be a down year, thus breaking the four
year cycles. Third order of effect. Twenty twenty six is
open season four. Your cycle is broken. You know, he's

(04:41):
essentially saying this has become a self fulfilling prophecy. Right,
people are thinking, well, that's it. It must be over
because it's four years. But again, it's all following liquidity.
It's not falling the having. So the liquidity cycle itself
is getting disrupted. Then the asset market cycle is going
to get disrupted. And it's not just crypto that's correcting

(05:02):
right now, guys. If you look at the stock market,
it is also the s and P five hundred is down.
It is also approaching the over soul zone, so is
the NASDAC. So it's not like crypto by itself is done.
We're just seeing all these things happening here with these
other markets. Now. Another factor that is signaling a potential
reversal is Jim Kramer is on a tear. He's saying

(05:25):
bearish things. He's bearish on bitcoin. He's saying, let the
seller sell, the FED shouldn't step in. He's saying all
kinds of things. He's tweeting about it, he's going on
TV saying about it. So there's a lot of clips,
you know, going around. I'm not going to play everything here,
but he is bearish. Now. The other factor, which I'm
sure many of you saw at Japan because of the
Japanese yen carry trade situation, you know, which we've been

(05:46):
talking about, is deja vu. You know we saw this
in August twenty twenty four. Well, they've approved a economic
stimulus of twenty one point three trillion yen, so this
is quantitative easing. So that equates to one hundred and
thirty five point five billion dollars stimulus package. So you
know that liquidity is going to make its way into markets.
The big question a lot of people have though, is

(06:08):
what is the FED gonna do? Is the FED gonna
follow suit? And it could be this situation, you know,
it continues to compound and it gets worse and then
something breaks. The FED always waits for something to break
before they go do something like this. But we know
quantitative tightening is ending December. First, the rate cuts percentages

(06:29):
or the chances of a ray cut have increase due
to some of the things that have been happening like
this in Japan and much more. And even here Lawrence
Leppard highlighted what FED Williams signaling that the December ray
cut you know, is most likely, and he says, well, well, well,
a little trouble in Japan and they send out a
dove to calm everyone down. CME raycuts odds go up

(06:53):
from forty percent to seventy four percent. These guys are
so transparent and obviously in way over their heads. Good
luck FED, you are going to need it, so something
might break, guys. And of course the point is they
have the only solution they have is to print money
that is not going to stop, even though it may
take a while there's some political back and forth and
so forth, they have to go back to this. This

(07:15):
is the debt based system, this is their mo So
I'm anticipating further rate cuts, and you know, we could
see some sort of pseudo or stealth QI or full
on QI. I don't know, but you know it's coming.
They can't bypass this, and if something breaks, you know,
it's gonna be it's gonna be a full on money
printer there. And look, you know, we are in a

(07:37):
tough situation. I do believe we're in some sort of recession.
You look at the massive layoffs that are happening, right,
Companies don't just start laying off people like that. You know,
some of these big companies and so forth, especially those
who have a big cash balance sheets, they're just laying
people off. It's pretty tough out there. And then you
got you know, some some level of inflation still hanging around,

(08:00):
and you know, the mortgage industry, the real estate industry
not really doing much. So something's gonna break at some
point and we're gonna see the FED step in. So
that's my thoughts, guys. I don't believe the bullmarket's over.
I think there's a lot of macro factors like this,
like what Japan's doing full on QE and the FED

(08:21):
here in the United States will return to that. You
got the crypto market structure bill still in play, and
just a lot of different companies looking to do IPOs
and much more so, I think people are still anticipating
there's a final push here, and you know, we could
see that blow off top. Come in Q one twenty
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(08:41):
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learn more, visit the link in the description. Now, folks,
look at this. Coinbase has made another acquisition, so they said,
here we're doubling down on Solana. So Coinbase is acquiring Vector,
an on chain trading platform built on Solana whose tech

(10:07):
will plug directly into Coinbase to help better serve one
of crypto's most active ecosystems. And here, Brian Armstrong's CEO
Coinbase said, earlier this year, I said, we level up
our Solana game. Since then, we've brought agent Kit and
X four h two to Solana and made upgrades to
our infrastructure to scale services. Five x improvement in block

(10:28):
processing throughput, four x improvement RPC performance. Now we're bringing
Soul native tech and talent to plug into our platform
and level up support for Solana trading at Coinbase. So
a big acquisition by Coinbase here. Now, we've been talking
a lot about the XRP ETFs and different ATMs that

(10:49):
are being launched, and here Arabell Tunis of Bloomberg confirmed
that Gray Scales dose Coin ETF is approved for listing
on New York Stock Exchange, scheduled to begin trading Monday. Also,
their xrpiece body TF is also launching on Monday. So
we are seeing, you know, these ETFs are starting to
go live by many of the big players. He also

(11:09):
says here g Link, I think that's chain Link is
coming soon as well. So pretty incredible, guys, that these
on rams are being built for these assets. I know
right now many of you are like, man, this market
sucks the volatility, But you know, guys, it's all cyclical.
So if you are able to look from the macro,
and I always tell you guys, when in down, zoom out,

(11:29):
go to trading views, zoom out on a chart and
you'll see, you know, all these pullbacks and dumps and corrections,
they end up being blips, small blips on the chart. Right,
we keep going up because assets are driven by liquidity.
The liquidity comes from the debasement of currency, the printing
of fiat globally. So this is where once you understand

(11:50):
that fundamental thesis, you're not panicking on every move and
things like that, yes, we all want to make money. Guys.
I wish this situation wasn't happening. I wish we were
hitting new all time and I'm cashing out my portfolio.
But I also have to go with the market, right.
This is the nature of markets. So you have to
have to have to instill in yourself in the foundational knowledge, right,

(12:12):
go beyond the emotions and understand what is driving markets.
And yes, we look at the macro, we look at
the charts, we look at on chain data. We just
don't look at one of those things. We have to
look at all of them. So that's why even though
the chart is bloody right now, the macro is screaming
to me, wait a minute, look at what's coming right,

(12:34):
Look at what Japan is doing. Look look at what
the FED is getting ready to do, and much more so.
That is how I'm looking at the market. Now. Look
at this bitmind, which is headed up by Tom Lee.
It is in a theorem treasury company. They've announced a
twenty twenty six eighth staking plan. As the market melts down. Well, yeah,
the market is melting now. But you know, this is

(12:55):
one of the things I've talked about with these digital
asset treasury companies, those that have proof of steak and
can earn yield are gonna be able to survive the
market downturns and bear markets because they still have the
revenue coming in and bit mine. I believe they are
the largest Etheroreum holder. And it's pretty rough out there.
You know, Tom Ly's taking a beating. You know, people

(13:16):
are trolling them on social media and so forth. But
you know, these guys have a macro view and you know,
one of the things I will be talking about as
we enter a bear market is how do you continue
to earn you know, despite their not being the price actions.
And I'll talk about staking and different types of DeFi
things that I use during the bear market right to

(13:38):
to continue to earn those passive rewards. So I think
you're going to see the salon and Etheroreum treasury companies
do this to survive, and we'll see how many of
them survive, because uh, you know, it's it's pretty tricky
because some of these guys raise debt. It's it's one
thing to take some of your cash on your balance
sheet and do this because then you're not you know,

(13:58):
tied to debt. You just simply take the cash you
already have. But some of these guys are raising billions
and then they're going to buy the assets. And when
those assets go down and you're not getting the same
arbitrage of volatility on the stock price because the stock
market's down to it puts them in a bad spot.
So I don't want them to fail. But you know,
we'll see what happens. Guys. This is why we want

(14:20):
to continue to look at the data, monitor everything and
make the right decisions here. All right, folks, that's the news.
Let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and
comments below hit the thumbs up button. Folks. A great
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Link will be in the description. Check out my book
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(14:40):
course at Mycrypto course dot com. This is a comprehensive
course that teaches you everything you need to know about crypto. So, folks,
thank you so much for tuning in. I appreciate you all,
and I'll talk to you all later. Two

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