Crypto Market Pain! Bitcoin, Solana, XRP, Ethereum, & ZCash Analysis!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's interesting. We got pretty encouraged after the end of
November past and we suddenly saw this big accumulation the
first four days of December. They added roughly a quarter
of a percentage of the entire supply, which is a
ton and we expected that this would push prices up.

Speaker 2 (00:29):
Hey, folks, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your
host Tony Edward, and joining me is Brian from Sentiment,
And as you all know, we are going to do
a deep dive into the metrics to get an understanding
of what's happening with bigcoin, all coins in the entire
crypto market. Brian, great to see you. Good to see you, Tony.
Up and down in the markets lately.

Speaker 1 (00:47):
But you know, I think, you know, if there's ever
a good time for Sentiment to come into place, right now,
because every time people are getting a little bullish, they
get disappointed. Every time they get barished and sell off,
they're also disappointed. So it's been kind of a range,
but between maybe eighty five and ninety two K for
bitcoin the last couple of weeks, and I would anticipate

(01:10):
that continues until the crowd stops overreacting to every swing.

Speaker 2 (01:14):
Yeah, it's tough out there, Brian. A lot of people
getting depressed in this sentiment is not good. You know,
I saw the this morning was an extreme fear because
bitcoin had another pullback and a lot of people are disappointed.
You know that usually this market has wrapped up around
this time with a blow off top, but that's not
the case, and or a traditional bloff top with a

(01:36):
euphoric retail crowded much more. So maybe we could start
with bitcoin sentiment. You know, how are people feeling right now?

Speaker 1 (01:42):
Now, let's take a look at the metrics, beginning with bitcoin,
which is always probably the most important because it's dictating
how everything else is going. And from what I've seen lately,
I'll start with just the positive and negative sentiment. Here
it's come down a little. So this is our latest
date right here. You can see there's at the top

(02:03):
left of my screen. It shows one point two positive
comments for every one negative comment, giving a ratio of
one point two there, so you know we're not in
this fomo range anymore. But you can see, as I
talked about, over the last ten days, we went from
super bearish where there's zero point seventy five bullish to

(02:24):
bearish comments that's very low. Then all of a sudden
we get FOMO on just a very minor rebound. You
can see that ninety k is a big psychological encouragement
level for a lot of people to start to get
bullish again. So they get bullish, they get disappointed again,
and now we're kind of in the middle of the
range here once again.

Speaker 2 (02:45):
Yeah, man, And I know a lot of people are
waiting for this chop to stop and for it's almost
like they want to know which direction we're going. Are
we going to go up right start a parabolic move
or whatever it may be, a rally, or are we
going to go down to a bear market? The boring
aspect is getting some people was shaking them out right,
and then these violent swings, even though they're not kind

(03:08):
of clear, is part.

Speaker 1 (03:09):
Of the chop exactly. And you know, we can see
further evidence of the indecisiveness of the crowd when we
look at the amount of calls that are related to
lower or below versus higher or above, and the red
is the higher or above. You can see how they
got super excited when bitcoin jumped back above ninety three

(03:32):
K a week ago, and then it started to fade
people weren't phased by it. They were trying to buy
the dip here, and that caused an even bigger dip
A little covered by the text here, but you got
the idea. Got back down to about eighty eight K,
and then we ranged for a bit. You can see
the blue and red bars are mixed, and then all

(03:52):
of a sudden, big breakout for blue bars right after
this big drop right here yesterday. So the lay a
data we're seeing shows a lot of fear as we
got back down to eighty five K, and even as
we rise, the bearish narrative is still dominating, which is
generally a good thing, right because most rallies that heat

(04:14):
up do so while the crowd is like, oh, stay away,
it's just a fake bull trap. It's something that's going
to bite you in the butt if you get too
excited about it, because they're still thinking about last week
when they got too excited themselves and they got disappointed.
So this time they're like, Okay, fool me once, and
they're proclaiming that we're going to go lower, which, as

(04:37):
we know Tony, increases the likelihood of us going higher.

Speaker 2 (04:41):
Yeah. Absolutely, the market always does the opposite of the herd.
What does bitcoin MVRV look like.

Speaker 1 (04:48):
Yeah, let's take a look at MVRV. So thirty day wise,
it's right at about zero, sitting at about native zero
point seven percent, not in a danger zone, not in
an opportunity zone. Swing traders are pretty much break even,
right where they should be in a zero sum game. Now,
the good news is that on a long term basis,

(05:10):
the three sixty five day MVRV, it's sitting at negative
fourteen percent, meaning long term wise, there's still plenty of
meat on the bone for us to rise back to
that zero percent average that traders will hover around for
all different timeframes. So you don't want to be in
mvrvs in an investment when both the short and long

(05:32):
term are super high, like they were in mid July
and of course at the all time high in early October.
But now with the blue line representing the long term
MVRV being in pretty dominantly negative range, there's a little
bit of upside right now to adding on to your position.

(05:52):
If you're in it for the long run, don't expect
this to have much impact next week. But if you're
holding for a one year period, this justifies that and
tells you you'd be in a good spot because others
are in pain. So, you know, man, it's such a
weird time in the market. So we'll have to wait
and see how this plays out. What are bitcoin whales doing.

(06:15):
Are they starting to accumulate? So on the whale side,
it's interesting. We got pretty encouraged after the end of
November past and we suddenly saw this big accumulation the
first four days of December, they added roughly a quarter
of a percentage of the entire supply, which is a ton,

(06:37):
and we expected that this would push prices up, and
it did. We saw, you know, just in that four
day span, bitcoin went up a little under four percent. Great.
The problem is they kind of stopped that big accumulation
all of a sudden, and they're now kind of dancing
and moving sideways again, even moving just a slight bit

(07:00):
down over the last week. Meanwhile, retail continues to go up,
so they're trying to accumulate more and more and more,
thinking that we're going to get back to one hundred
k at least, that's what the on chain data is saying.
We obviously saw social data wise, there's a lot of
people proclaiming lower. So it's interesting when you see retail

(07:22):
acting one way on chain but being very bearish vocally
on social media, and that's kind of what we're seeing
right now.

Speaker 2 (07:29):
Yeah, and we've looked at this correlation before that the
whales they stop their accumulation if retail is accumulating, and
then you know the vice versa if retail starts capitulating
and they're distributing or just giving up, and then the
whales start buying. So hopefully this reverses what we're seeing
here exactly. So the key if you remember that color

(07:52):
coded article I did about a month ago, like the
green zones are when you've got this whale line moving
up and the retail line moving down.

Speaker 1 (08:00):
Right now, it's kind of the opposite, at least over
the last week, the green lines moving down and the
red lines moving up, which is generally a red zone
and can justify a price decline. Not going to say
that's a guarantee. We've seen plenty of anomalies here, but
you know, we believe tony and probability of something occurring,
and the probability of a rise would be a lot

(08:23):
less likely until this especially breaks down a.

Speaker 2 (08:28):
Bit, and I don't know if ETF inflows are worth looking,
but maybe we can glance at it because ETFs can
be a bit hit and miss.

Speaker 1 (08:37):
Yeah, of course, we do have up to day data,
and it's actually been very quiet. There's not a lot
of movement in either direction. It's just very few ups
and downs. It seems like a lot of people are
just waiting for the end of the year to happen
right now after that big outflow segment that we saw

(08:57):
in November, especially mid Nova, So I don't see much
to really get excited or concerned about as far as
this goes. Yeah, that makes sense.

Speaker 2 (09:09):
It feels like I don't know, we're going to end
a year on a kind of disappointing note, given you
know what we've seen in historically. But we could see
maybe a relief rally or the continuation of this bull
market maybe January February.

Speaker 1 (09:24):
We're going to have to wait and see. Yeah, I mean,
we might be surprised because normally, when you really think
about the logic behind the end of the year being
kind of a disappointment, that usually happens when you have
big bullish years, and we're actually in the negatives this year.
We saw if I can compare it to the S

(09:44):
and P and gold and we go back one year
and I'm just gonna yeah, so they're all on the
same axis. Obviously different percentage changes because Bitcoin's more volatile
than the other two. But if I just go back
to December sixteenth of last year, I'm holding down shift.
You can see the top left of my screen how
it's changing. So Bitcoin's actually down a roughly eighteen percent

(10:10):
on the year. Normally you see big disappointing final weeks
of the year when those institutionals are taking profit for
tax purposes whatever. There's no profit to be taken, at
least by most sane human people who haven't predicted markets perfectly. Therefore,

(10:32):
I don't expect the same level of just like dumping
going into twenty twenty six as we did. You know,
for example, in twenty twenty three or twenty twenty four,
there were some minor dumps toward the end of the
year because they were such bullish years.

Speaker 2 (10:49):
Yeah, it's a good point, and you know, there are
other signals that are showing like bitcoin is very oversold,
you know, RSI and so forth on different time levels.
So to your point, and at some point the sellers
are going to get exhausted and it's not going to
be any type of major selling and maybe it's just
continual chop in sideways movement exactly.

Speaker 1 (11:10):
Yeah, And one note too on that vein that you mentioned.
I think part of the disappointment comes from, you know,
the fact that we've got Bitcoin doing this over the
past couple of months since that all time high on
October sixth, while the S and P and gold you
get the idea, they're they're kind of hovering, and even

(11:32):
though we haven't declined like massively, it is like a
thirty percent drop since the all time high, but we've
seen much more massive drops. I just think it's so
disappointing because the crypto community is watching, you know, their
fellow goldbug friends or their equity trader friends be fine
and continue to push all time highs week in and

(11:54):
week out, and that just makes the pain of a
thirty percent drop feel more like a six percent drop
because you're comparing it to the what ifs. What if
I invested in Amazon this whole time, or Apple, or
just index funds, or a bunch of gold mining companies
or just a bunch of gold bars. Yeah, silver is

(12:15):
going nuts too. I mean, they've all done very well,
while Bitcoin's just left people with regret.

Speaker 2 (12:23):
Yeah, And it's really interesting, Brian, because you have this
price action while on the other side of the token
you have the most incredible adoption news that we've seen
in a long time. JP Morgan and Visa and the
occ giving banks green light to do all these things.
And it's incredible, like news that would drive the market
crazy in other times.

Speaker 1 (12:44):
Right now, it's not. It's a big disconnect exactly. I
just saw it was trending yesterday. It's out of the
top five today on our Trending Stories countdown. But I'm
seeing new mass adoption news coming out every couple of
days that are like legitimate stories, not just you know,
a minor company, but you know, Nasdaq trading expansion. That's

(13:07):
the latest that's come out. They plan to extend their
weekday trading hours from sixteen to twenty three hours. That
gives people a lot more time to trade and expect
SEC approval on that. But stuff like that. There was
some stuff about grayscale. Yeah right here. Experts like bidwise

(13:28):
Greyscale predict bitcoin will break its four year cycle and
reach new al time highs in twenty twenty six. That's
a pretty good sign coming from two of the most
influential companies out there, you know, even you know, Meta mask,
which is one of the more trusted companies in terms
of how people can store their crypto. That's getting more

(13:52):
and more support and native bitcoin adoption over time, expanding
meta mass beyond Ethereum and Solona. I mean this is
general really pretty good news.

Speaker 2 (14:01):
Yeah, absolutely, and it just seems to have no effect
right now.

Speaker 1 (14:05):
It's all short term versus long term, right. Yeah. People
see these headlines and think that bitcoin's just going to
miraculously jump twenty percent overnight, but the reality is they're
more just long term seeds that are being planted to
give crypto more room to grow in the next few years.

Speaker 2 (14:23):
Yeah. Absolutely, Let's take a look at all coins because
starry Ethereum. I don't know if it's worth looking at
all coins, because you know, bitcoin leads to show and
the market follows a bitcoin. But I'm curious if things
look similar on ETHEROUM, you know, as far as sentiment
and MVRV.

Speaker 1 (14:39):
Yeah, so Ethereum's ratio positive versus native comments still looks
pretty positive. Honestly, for Ethereum, it's staying pretty high despite
the drop. I just think it's not getting as much
hate as Bitcoin whenever it falls itself. But Ethereum did
break below that three k resistance. It's a big psychological

(15:00):
support for a lot of people. I would expect if
it stays low like this, this might start to come
down a little bit more. But from now, the sentiment
is fine as far as XRP goes. Yeah. I mean,
they actually just had a really big bullish day, interestingly,
and then prices dropped and then it came down a little,

(15:20):
but XRP is still looking like it's got quite a
bit of positive sentiment itself. So Lana very negative interestingly.
I don't know exactly why that would be, but look
at how Solana has been one of the better performers
over the past twenty four hours ever since this negative
bar jumped down this far.

Speaker 2 (15:40):
Yeah, and they just had their their conference last week
and there was huge announcements I think JP Morgan and
a bunch of other things happening, So yeah, surprising, But
then you know, it's all related to the market sentiment
and cyclical patterns. So regardless, if you have the greatest news,
if you were already in a downtrend and you know

(16:01):
it's probably not gonna do much.

Speaker 1 (16:02):
Well said, yeah, I think that's very true. And we
can look at Sue as well, so I know we've
covered them on our shows a lot. Looking still pretty negative.
It's got a similar bounce to Solana over the past day,
while the negative sentiment has been more prominent. So that
makes sense. Any other coins off the top of your head,

(16:26):
XRP can take a look at that. We just did XRP,
I believe, yeah, yeah, no, no, all good. Yeah, So
we did that. We saw that positive spike and now
it's a little less positive, but still up there. I mean,
this long term growth is quite interesting. Actually it's jumped
over time. So even though XRP has gotten kind of
hammered price wise, the faithful out there are sticking with them.

(16:51):
What about the MVRV for XRP and ETH So let's
while we're on XRP, we'll do that first. Still quite negative,
This is a good sign for XRP holders, especially with
the optimism going on. About negative nine percent on the
three day MVRV and about negative twenty two percent on
the long term. So going back to like the last.

(17:14):
We'll just do the last year. You can see this
was like off the charts after that huge jump back
in January. But the closest we have to what we've
seen recently was back on November twenty first or so,
when we saw negative eighteen and negative twenty five percent
mvrvs and then prices jumped up and then they kind

(17:35):
of got a little more neutral and started falling again.
I think this is a pretty good sign for XRP,
considering we haven't seen both the thirty and three sixty
five day mvrvs this low in a long time.

Speaker 2 (17:49):
Man, it's just that cyclical pattern. As you're showing you
on the try right. You know, if you're not you
don't understand the data, you may say, oh my god,
that's horrible, but it's actually good setting up for another
the major move.

Speaker 1 (18:01):
Yeah, it's a good lesson where you don't want to
buy when the MVRV is above seventy percent, like we
saw back in July. Don't buy here. It may seem
obvious in hindsight, like, oh, yeah, look at all these
green bars. Don't buy there, but the actual average trading
returns are validating that the wallets that had been active

(18:23):
during that time, were up way more than their normal
zero sum game, giving it an overvaluation signal that implies
it's going to come back down to earth. And then,
of course it did. We go negative here. Remember it's
best when both the lines are in negative or both
are in positive. That's what gives the best signals like

(18:43):
here too, perfect time to sell temporarily, even more perfect
time to sell here, and then perfect time to buy
even though it was very short lived, and now we're
both still in negative range. I'd call this, you know,
a nine out of ten on the risk free scale,
if you will.

Speaker 2 (19:03):
And then for MVRV, for eth I don't know if
you guys added for Solana as well. I remember you
we were saying you were working on that.

Speaker 1 (19:11):
We don't have Solanas MVRV yet specifically, we do have
a few other on chain metrics if we do want
to look into it. But first we can check out
Ethereum over the past year. Yeah, they had just like XRP,
that big negative spike here on November twenty first, and
then price is bounced at the top. Yeah, they bounced

(19:35):
even bigger. They went up about twenty five percent during
that time. Before you can see this orange line got
up to about plus thirteen percent and then we topped
right away. So looking okay for ethereum. They're both in
negative range, which is good, just not quite extreme the
way XRP does. So from just a pure math perspective,

(19:57):
the most likely coin for a relief rally of the
big players looks like XRP for a very short term basis.
If you want to get some swing trades out there
based on what the math is dictating, hmm, it's good insight.

Speaker 2 (20:14):
I guess the last one here we can look at
before we wrap it up is z cash. I know
that was rallying pretty strong for a while that has
cool down. Since I'm curious what things are looking like now, yeah.

Speaker 1 (20:28):
They had a major cool down, we'll actually look at
the sentiment. I think that's probably best for this particular asset.
So I remember on that big rally, nobody was believing
in it, right, It was kind of laughed at, almost
because z cash has looked at as this ancient dinosaur
privacy coin that has mostly been forgot about since I

(20:48):
don't know, twenty seventeen or eighteen, back from that initial
bull run where I was first learning about crypto at
that time. But yeah, you can see this one weird outlier.
But other than that, like during the rally, sentiment was
very negative and then you know it finally saw a

(21:09):
little bit of a top. Not much change. In fact,
this was bizarre. I don't know if it was bots
or what, but it was like thirty one to one
in terms of bullish versus bearish comments, and then it
cooled down again. I don't see anything showing much of
an outlier in either direction right now. It looks like
there's about one point seven bullish to one bearish comment,

(21:30):
which is pretty normal for an off coin. They tend
to skew a little higher than Bitcoin does.

Speaker 2 (21:35):
Interesting, and I wonder if there you know how zcash
was this like anomaly that just started rallying despite market conditions.
If there's gonna the market makers or whoever is pulling
the strings here are going to pick another all coin
and it will start seeing these random all coins popping off.

Speaker 1 (21:54):
Yeah. I mean, I've looked for a few signs over
time to see what kind of initiated the big rally.
Sometimes the only explanation is it's a lot of institutionals
who just decided to take interest all at once and
then kind of reel in the retail to keep the
rally going for them. We do see social dominance here,

(22:14):
which is kind of interesting. So look at how this
big social dominance spike came in right when z cash,
like literally the day before it hit its big top
above seven thirty five, and then it dropped off. So
sometimes a good substitute for sentiment, if it's not showing
you much, is just looking at the percentage of the
pie that one coin is taking up in terms of

(22:36):
the discussions on a daily basis, and nobody was talking
about z cash back here, it was getting point oh
four point zho six percent of cryptodiscussions per day, and
then at its top three and a half percentage of
all discussions related to different coins were being directed at

(22:56):
z cash, which is normally just not being talked about
at all. But it's still up here at the number
seventeen market cap rank. Can't remember what it was prior
to the rally, but it was. I don't even know
if it was in the top thirty, top forty, someone
in the comments may know. But things have changed a lot.
It's super volatile still, but if you want to take

(23:17):
some chances. I mean, funding rate can be an interesting
signal as well. There was some shorting going on. Now
it's kind of back to neutral. Yeah, look at all
these shorts right here, by the way, I haven't checked
this out before, tons and tons of shorts as it
just kept on rallying. You talk about why the rally
continued for so long. These are all the people who
were betting against ze cash during that late October to

(23:41):
early November run. When it finally peaked, got a bunch
of liquidations here, and then finally the shorts started to
become less prevalent. Wow, it's so fascinating, and I'm wondering
to your point, you know, is it just institutions or
you know, is it still just breadcrumbs of a bull market?

(24:02):
You know that we're seeing before another major continuation. I
guess we're gonna have to wait and see exactly. I
think we will continue to monitor these different signals that
we're showing you on these videos guys day by day.
Check out our insights page and of course our social
media at santiment Feed and it should give you quite

(24:23):
a bit of information about what you can expect next.

Speaker 2 (24:28):
Yeah, by the way, I think that's a good call
out of folks. Make sure you follow santimand because you
guys are putting out like great analysis on some of
these coins, daily updates and all that, it's very helpful stuff.

Speaker 1 (24:38):
Thanks brother. Yours is also something we get inspired by
all the time, So keep up the great work.

Speaker 2 (24:45):
So, Brian, you know, I'm gonna kind of try to
reverse jink jinks myself. I hope we crash down to
lower lows and the bull market's over, I know.

Speaker 1 (24:56):
So it's it seems like whatever we're rooting for, the
the crypto gods seemed to smirk at us and do
the opposite. But one of these days we'll get it,
get it how we want it.

Speaker 2 (25:08):
Yeah, And like I said, it's just a weird time.
I think if we weren't seeing, you know, all this
positive news and just incredible adoption news and regulators giving
massive clarity, it probably wouldn't be as weird. But you
have that happening. But price action is doing the complete opposite.

Speaker 1 (25:26):
It is. It's such a different game these days with
so many institutionals and major corporations involved in crypto. It's
not the you know, the people's decentralized option like it
seemed to be four to eight years ago during the
twenty seventeen and twenty one rallies. But I'm still confident
in crypto has a great future ahead of it. It's

(25:48):
just different and we have to accept that it's different
and act accordingly.

Speaker 2 (25:53):
Yeah, for sure, all right, good stuff, Brian. I guess
our next one will be in the new year, and
we'll kick off twenty twenty six and you know, with
some fresh data and see how the market looks, and
hopefully twenty twenty six is a very good year.

Speaker 1 (26:07):
But thank you so much man, Thanks brother. Happy holidays
to everybody.

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