FED RATE & QE DECISION WILL IMPACT CRYPTO! MAJOR BANK OFFERING CRYPTO TRADING!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's going to be a very big week as we're
going to hear from the Fed on if they're going
to cut rates and as layoffs hit the Great Recession levels.
Will Jerome Powell hint at the money printer being turned on,
and another major bank is offering crypto trading and whales.
Bitcoin whales specifically have started accumulation. I'll give you the details.

(00:21):
Let's get into it. Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking
Crypto podcast. You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm
your host, Tony Edward. On your way in, please sit
that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button
and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a
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(00:43):
five star rating and review folks. Right now, the price
of bitcoin continues to show volatility. We're back over ninety
one thousand. We are setting up higher highs and higher
lows here in this recovery move. However, some analysts are
saying we could see some more downside. Maybe a retail
has a double bottom of around eighty one thousand dollars
before we start moving up. And of course, this week

(01:06):
we're going to hear from the FED, and any time
there's an FMC meeting that week, there's usually a lot
of volatility, So you want to have in the back
of your mind that there could be some really big
shakeouts this week, so just be prepared for that. It's
not a guarantee that it's going to happen, but there's
a high probability that it could, right so just be
prepared for that. That could be once again another major

(01:27):
shakeout before we start running up, and we could hear
from the Fed on if they're going to cut rates,
and right now the market is pricing in that they
are going to cut rates by twenty five basis points.
I think we're going to see that because we are
getting data, multiple reports highlighting that US layoffs are set
to surpass the Great Recession levels and on track to

(01:48):
be the worst since the Great Depression. So multiple reports
are coming out here. So the Fed's dual mandate is
to keep inflation low but also employment very high. So
right now, inflation has come down, but it's still relatively high.
You get the tariffs and all these things in a mix,
but if you got lots of people being laid off,

(02:09):
that means they're going to have to cut rates aggressively,
and they could turn on the money printer because it
seems like we are headed into a recession here. Now,
you know they're going to try to turn on the
money printer to stop that as much as possible or
mitigated as much as possible. And don't forget, they just
finished quantitative tightening right December first, so it means that
they can start purchasing securities expanding their balance sheet once again.

(02:33):
So I expect they will continue to do that. This
is the mo of the central banks. They have no
other tools. They just have to keep printing money, right,
And look, it does take time. Sometimes it takes years
to go from QT back to QE and vice versa
and all that. Right, it's ebbs and flows, boom and busts.
We've seen this throughout history. So this is where you
have to be patient as an investor because assets move

(02:56):
with more liquidity and the debasement of currency. I'm not
rooting for the basement of currency, Don't get me wrong.
I'm not rooting for people to get laid off for
things to be bad. But I'm just stating the facts
and how this thing plays out in the cyclical pattern, right,
it's just facts, not feelings here, so asset prices will
follow as they expand that balance sheet and print money. Now,

(03:19):
something that's interesting, and I haven't shown you guys this
chart in a while, but bitcoin whales after two months
of distribution right, this is data from sentiment on chain
data with wallets of ten or more bitcoin, they have
started accumulating again. So this is signaling potentially a local
bottom like what we've been talking about, and that we

(03:39):
are still in a bull market. Right. I've been saying,
I personally believe the higher probability is that we're in
a bull market. We're starting to see the confirmation here.
The price is rebounding. You got the whales accumulating once again.
You got liquidity continuing to rise. I've been highlighting, you
got the Fed ending quantitative tightening, continue doing rate cuts

(04:01):
and the return of quantitative easing. That should drive prices
higher right now, It's not an immediate thing, so I
just want to make sure you guys understand there are
sometimes lags between these things. You have many companies, crypto
tech companies and much more looking to do IPOs. We
just heard about elon SpaceX, you know open Ai. They
want to do an IPO in twenty twenty six. We

(04:23):
have crypto companies like Grayscale, Kraken and others, and you've
got stock exchanges today. The head of the NASDAC was saying, yeah,
they're expecting a boom and IPOs. And I've been saying,
who to hell IPOs in a bear market? Right? That
does not make sense when liquidity is down, when these
companies can get the highest valuations as possible. So again,

(04:45):
the bears won't answer that question. Right, I'm presenting facts here.
How can these companies be filing with the SEC to
do IPOs and we're in a bear market? Doesn't add up?
So this is where again we're looking at different factors,
the macro, the charts, the on chain data. Right, no
feelings or emotions here, we leave that at the door.

(05:06):
We're looking at the data here. So some people were
trying to troll me, right, saying, oh, look that short
you've been sharing with the bitcoin whale walls. It's been
going down haha. And I'm like, wait a minute, it's
too early to judge because we've seen this before. Just
look what happened with the bigcoin ETF launch in Q
two of twenty twenty four massive dump. Did that mean
the bullmarket was over? Of course not right. Whales started

(05:28):
accumulating and the price went up over the past years.
So we also had a big sell off in the
beginning of this year with the tariff announcement, and what
happened was that the end of the bullmarket. No, the
whales started accumulating again. Same thing is happening here now.
Obviously we've got to continue to watch this closely and
not celebrate too much, but we're going to at least

(05:49):
look at the data and update our thesis accordingly. So
these are positive signs. We are also seeing big time
buying from big investors and digital acid treasury companies in
addition to the whales A bit mine, that's Tom Lee's
digital asset treasury company. They bought another one hundred and
ninety nine million dollars in ether. So are they buying

(06:09):
so the price can roll over? And you know, some
people are saying we're in the bear market, right, So
the price that ETH is going to crash down. I
don't know, fifty sixty percent. Something doesn't add up here, right,
So this is where you got to watch out. The
bears are going to come on in a comment section
and it's over. The market's in. You guys are idiots.
But they won't share data. They won't share any facts,
they won't share any technical annalysis, any on chain data.

(06:32):
So watch out for the people who just scream sentiment. Right.
They're trying to put fear in you to have you
sell and not have you buy because they want to
make money off their shorts. So this is where, once again, folks,
you got to put your thinking cap on and be
able to delineate between what's real, what's not, what's facts,
what's and what's emotional sentiment driven items. Right. So this

(06:54):
is a very positive sign, folks. So we shall see.
This week is going to be pretty volatile. So once
again be prepared for another major dump which could lead
us to that double bottom, like I'm saying for Bitcoin
before we move up. And I do believe that two
scenarios are possible here as I've been saying. Scenario one

(07:15):
is just a debtcat bounce relief rally and we roll
over to lower lows, or this is the continuation of
the bull market. Now I'm on the side of this
is the continuation of the bull market based on everything
I just share with you guys, factual things now right,
not I dream or I hope, But based on the
IPO information, we're hearing what the fet is doing, whales

(07:36):
are accumulating. Once again, all of these factors, folks. This
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(08:40):
the banks continue to adopt crypto. Look at this French
banking giant BPCEE to launch in app crypto trading. We
are seeing the dominoes fall across the globe. Here in
the United States, of course, we've got JP, Morgan City Bank,
P and C Bank, many others are launching crypto. They
want to use stable coins, they're tokenizing, you're launching customs
and much more. And it's a foregone conclusion here, right,

(09:04):
It's inevitable all of them will do the same thing
because this asset class is here to stay. And I've
been telling you guys beating the drum. The markets, the
governments and the economies will all run on blockchain rails.
So let me give you the details. According to the
report from the Big Whale, the group will allow users
to buy and sell bitcoin, ether, Solana and USDC stable

(09:25):
coin directly inside its bank. Popular and kase de I
can't pronounce, I apologize Mobile apps starting on Monday. The
initial rollout will cover clients of four regional banks, including
Bank Popular. Oh my gosh, these are all French names.
I apologize I cannot those of you listening to a

(09:47):
podcast network, I apologize, But those of you watching on
YouTube you can see the names here. So anyway, the
collective banks here, the four regional banks will reach roughly
two million customers. So BPCE plans to extend the IS
gradually across its remaining twenty five regional entities through twenty
twenty six, ultimately making crypto trading available to its full

(10:08):
twelve million strong retail base. Incredible, so you see they're
gonna do this in twenty twenty six. So this is
why something is gearing up here for an epic blow
off TOP in twenty twenty six. And look, I could
be wrong, right, but I hope you see all the
factors I'm laying out here on the table to get

(10:30):
an idea what's to come. And remember, we didn't see
a true euphoric blow offf TOP, no strong retail sentiment
and much more coming into the market. So let's see, you, folks,
Let's see how it plays out. I don't have a
crystal ball or a time machine. But I can look
at the facts and you know, form and form my
thesis and my plan and my strategy and go with that. Okay,
moving ahead. Brokerage behind major crypto treasury deals eyes ten

(10:55):
to twelve billion dollar public listing. So Clearstreet, a New
York brokerage that has been become one of the most
active underwriters in the crypto treasury boom, is preparing to
go public with an expected valuation of ten billion to
twelve billion dollars. The IPO could come as early as
next month. Wait a minute, that puts us in January

(11:16):
twenty twenty six. But to some people, we're in a
bear market. This whole thing is about to collapse. A
stock market crypto Again, it does not align up right.
Ask your friendly neighborhood beer, Hey, who the hell IPOs
in a bear market? Please tell me right if we're
about to see a massive dump, doesn't make sense. So

(11:39):
the IPO could come as early as next month with
Goldman Sachs lined up to lead the offering. So Goldman
Sacks are idiots. The room full of analysts they have
that have been doing this for a long time are
trying to have people go public in a bear market.
I hope you guys understand what I'm saying here. So
this is a report coming from the Financial Times, citing
people familiar with the matter. So founded in twenty eighteen,
clear Street rows to prominence as dozens of public companies

(12:02):
began adopting the crypto treasury playbook, raising capital through equity
or debt markets, using the proceeds to buy large quantities
of bitcoin. The strategy was popularized by Michael Salor Strategy,
which has accumulated six hundred and fifty thousand bitcoin through
multiple stock and convertible offerings underwritten in part by Clearstreet.

(12:23):
So looks like this is the firm behind a lot
of these debts, guys. So the firm also served as
an underwriter for Trump Media and Technology Group, which has
signal plans to raise billions to establish a bitcoin treasury
operation of its own. According to its website, Clearstreet has
underwritten about ninety one billion dollars in combined equity, debt,

(12:44):
mergers and acquisitions transactions so far this year, including deals
for well known crypto advocates Anthony Pompeliano and former US
President candidate Vivek Ramswami. Very interesting, folks, more companies looking
to go public when twenty six Okay, moving ahead, folks.
We got news out of South Korea. So South Korea

(13:04):
to impose bank level liability on crypto exchanges after upbit hack.
So this is actually great news. They're essentially putting in
all the guardrails and safety assurance insurance that TRADFI has
right so if there is hacks, customers can be made whole.
So South Korea is preparing to impose bank level no
fault liability rules on crypto exchanges, holding exchanges to the

(13:28):
same standards as traditional financial institutions. Amid the recent breach
at upbit, the Financial Services Commission is reviewing new provisions
that would require exchanges to compensate customers for losses stemming
from hacks or system failures, even when the platform is
not at fault. The Korea Times told or Set on Sunday,

(13:48):
citing officials and local market analysts. The no fault compensation
model is currently applied only to banks and electronic payment
firms under Korea's electronic financial transactions at The regulatory push
follows a November twenty seventh incident involving up Bit, operated
by Dunamu, in which more than one hundred and four

(14:10):
billion Salana based tokens worth approximately forty four point five
billion yuan or thirty point one million dollars. We're transferred
to external wallets in under an hour, so folks, this
is really great. Exchanges need to have insurance. They need
to have reserves so if there's something like this that happens,
they get coverage and maybe they have to have some
sort of insurance that they can put into place, because look,

(14:32):
people are not gonna trust uh crypt exchanges, right, They're
gonna go to the trad five banks and names they
know which have the security in place and have been
doing this for a long time. So these exchanges need
to up their game. They need to cover customer losses. Right,
it's so important, Okay, moving ahead, wisdom Tree brings options

(14:52):
income strategy on chain with new tokenized fun So we're
seeing a lot of the TRAT five firms continue to
tokenized and are doing creative things tokenizing different assets and
financial products. So global asset manager Wisdom Tree has launched
a new digital asset fund that brings a traditional option
strategy on chain, a development that underscores the growing convergence

(15:15):
between legacy asset management and blockchain based financial infrastructure. The
wisdom Tree Equity Premium Income Digital Fund Wow what a name,
trading under the token ticker EPXC and fund ticker WTPIX,
is designed to track the price and yield of the
volos US Large Cap Target two point five percent put

(15:38):
Right Index. My god, these names are so long. Oh man,
that's a mouth. Well. The benchmark models a systematic put
writing strategy in which the index sells cash secured put
options to generate income, rather than writing options directly on
the S and P five hundred. The strategy uses contracts
tied to the SPDR s and P five hundred ETF trusts,

(16:02):
effectively earning premiums by acting as an option seller. So
you may say, Tony, well how do I make money
off it? Is? Well, certainly you can invest in that
fund if it is giving you a great return. But
what you want to look at is which blockchains are
theay launching this on and hold the tokens of those
said blockchains, so they give a highlight here that you know.

(16:24):
Wisdom Tree is doing a lot of tokenization. They have
fifteen tokenized funds across several blockchains including a Theorem, Avalanche
and base. So once again you can take your bets accordingly. There.
That's the big takeaway here is you can invest in
those protocols or networks right or blockchains and hold their
respective tokens, and you know, you look for the ones

(16:44):
that are getting the most adoption, right, So that's where
you can take your bet. Final news item, Western Union
eyes inflation resistant stable cards as part of its stable
core strategy. Now most recently about last month, I think
we heard about Western Union law launching their stable coin
on Solana, and looks like we're getting some more details

(17:04):
here as to what they're trying to do. So Western
Union has unveiled plans to introduce a new stable card
to protect users in high inflation economies as part of
its stable coin strategy. Speaking at the UBS Global Technology
and AI Conference, chief financial officer Matthew Cagwin said the
initiative bills on the company's investor day reveal that it

(17:26):
is moving beyond traditional cross border payments and into a
multipillar digital asset roadmap. Cagwin pointed to Argentina, where annual
inflation recently hit two hundred and fifty to three hundred percent,
noting that remittances can lose nearly half their value in
a month. He says, imagine a world where your family

(17:46):
in the US is sending you home five hundred dollars,
but by the time you spend it in the next month,
it's only worth three hundred dollars. He says. We can
see a good utility for our stable card here, which
is an increment to our prepaid car we have today
here in the United States. So interesting, guys getting creative here,

(18:06):
and I like it. Competition's good. We're seeing Visa, We're
seeing money Gram, all these different folks, MasterCard, and not
to mention the banks getting involved building stable coins, using
stable coins. It's exciting. So we are seeing the maturation here, folks.
It's it's really great. All right, folks, that's the news.
Let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and
comments below, hit the thumbs up button once again. Expect

(18:29):
Volatiley this week as we hear from the Fed and
things are not looking good in the job market, and
I expect the Fed will have to cut and you know, look,
they can start QE sooner they expect it. And sometimes
the market just needs a signal. If Jerome says, hey,
we're gonna have to look at you know, whatever they
call it, even if they don't call it QI. But
if he says, you know, they're gonna do liquidity injections

(18:51):
here and there and whatever the you know, the markets
are gonna go crazy now, you know, as always, markets
are cyclicals. So sometimes we're in a corrective phase where
the markets don't pump right away and that catches people
off guard. They psychologically think, oh, he just says something good.
That means immediately the price might shoot up. Right, That's

(19:13):
not how it works. So it is nuance. You have
to understand which part of the market, where's the sentiment,
All those things play a factor and how prices go up. Folks,
let me know what to think. Leave your thoughts comes below.
Great way to support the podcast is by subscribing to
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Link will be in the description. Check out my book
on Amazon, it's available in paperback, in digital, and my

(19:35):
course at Mycrypto course dot com. This is a comprehensive
course that teaches you everything you need to know about
crypto folks. Thank you for tuning in. I appreciate you all,
and I'll talk to you all later

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