NO SANTA RALLY FOR CRYPTO! BUT WILL JANUARY 2026 SEE A BULL RUN?

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcasts. You're home
for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
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Speaker 2 (00:23):
Folks, it's great to be back.

Speaker 1 (00:25):
Many of you know that I was in Cancun, Mexico
over the past seven days with the family. Went on
a bit of a vacation. Spent Christmas in a tropical environment,
which which was a big change from how I usually
celebrate Christmas. But it's a great time. But I came
back to freezing cold weather and a snowstorm, so this
morning I found myself shoveling snow. But it's good to

(00:47):
be back, guys, and I want to talk about the markets.
And you know, while I'm back in the freezing cold
here in the Northeast, it's also pretty freezing cold or
frozen in the crypto market. So let's take a look
at the charts here. So bitcoin is still consolidating, currently
sitting over eighty seven thousand dollars on the daily, the
mac D shows the bulls are in control. However, the

(01:08):
RSI is kind of moving sideways right now, which you know,
it's kind of what the price is doing, right so
we got to be patient to some consolidation here. You know,
when you look at the chart overall, we're still seeing
higher highs and higher lows being established here. That's a
good sign. I do believe there's a bull rally coming soon,
and I believe that's going to happen in January, go

(01:30):
into February as well, and maybe once again we see
that blow off top in March.

Speaker 2 (01:35):
Now.

Speaker 1 (01:35):
I know some of you are going to say, Tony,
we are in a bear market because of the signals
on the charts, the weekly, the monthly, and so forth.
But yet the macro, as we've been talking about, the
macro is contradicting that. Plus, you have these huge milestones
ahead in the crypto market, such as the Crypto Market
Structure Bill and much more. Those are very bullish narratives
and items that I don't believe the market makers would

(01:58):
leave on the table and let them market finish up
go into a bear market while you have that milestone
item sitting on the table right just doesn't make sense. Plus,
you have a lot of crypto companies looking to go
public and much more. No one goes public in a
bear market, So again there's no alignment here with the
charts and the macro. It's very, very different. If we
look at the weekly chart, we got the RSI approaching

(02:21):
the over soul zone, so again we could see a
rally coming up and the bears are losing momentum. They're
currently in control, but they're losing momentum. Based on the
MACD on the monthly shows the bears are still in
control here. So we're going to have to see this
flip sooner than later. But again that's where we have
to be patient. This sideways chop or consolidation even further

(02:44):
volatility could bleed until late January before we start to
see any type of move. But you know, speaking of
the macro earlier, gold and silver are showing us the
path forward because we've seen the correlation, folks. It is
based on the charts and the data. That goal has
been a leading indicator in this bull market over the
past couple of years. It's been running up. When it

(03:06):
cools down, bitcoin starts to run and here analyst crypto
Wizard did a great breakdown showing that when gold tops out,
then bitcoin starts to run. So this is something that's
on our side as far as the macro moving ahead
to USDT dominance that has been climbing right now, growing

(03:26):
of course, and it's approaching levels that we saw, you know,
in the bullmarket rallies last year, so let's see if
history repeats itself. We were, of course expecting USDT dominance
to collapse in Q four and start that big epic rally,
but it didn't happen, right, So I still believe the
timeline has been shifted due to the tariff situation from

(03:46):
earlier in twenty twenty five, but we're going to have
to wait and see. And bitcoin dominance it's moving sideway,
so we are of course waiting for that big collapse.
But I think what we may see is bitcoin dominance
is going to recover where as bigcoin steals the show
and then you have the rotation to the alts. That's
just how we've seen it, even if it's just a
relief rally and not a move to new all time highs. Right,

(04:09):
we will see bitcoin dominance rise as bigcoins starts to
steal the show, and then again all coins will have
their day. And the dx y still showing downward momentum
and weakness. So let's see, you know, if all these
things correlate as we head into January, and again we
started to see a very strong rally, and again that

(04:29):
could happen later in January, not saying it's going to
be the first week or whatever it may be. Here's
an interesting chart and data point from user Frank who
says he's a bitcoin market quant and he's ex Goldman Sachs.
He says, at eighty seven thousand dollars, long term holders
are finally easing off the cell side pressure, the low timeframe,

(04:50):
sell side risk ratio flashed low liquidity for the first
time since the tariff tantrum at eighty four K. He's
talking about the beginning of twenty twenty five when introduce
the tariffs and the markets crashed right and we had
the prolonged correction, and he says here and before that
the yen carry implosion at forty nine K, so that
was August of twenty twenty four, we saw the Japanese

(05:13):
yen carry trade situation. So Bitcoin's approaching those levels. So again,
we are due for a rally, whether that's a relief
simply a relief rally, or a move to new all
time highs. I'm leading more to the move to new
all time highs, and but you know, obviously do your
own research. I could be wrong. I'm just presenting the
scenarios to you guys, but you know, do what's best

(05:33):
for you.

Speaker 2 (05:34):
Now.

Speaker 1 (05:34):
On chain data showing what bitcoin whales are doing, this
is from Santiment shows that whales are accumulating, but not
as aggressively as they have before.

Speaker 2 (05:43):
But we still got to give it.

Speaker 1 (05:44):
Time because we've seen even in the respective pullbacks for example,
at the beginning of the year with the tariffs situation,
you know, accumulation slowly ramped up coming out of that,
then really picked up months later. So we're gonna have
to exercise a lot more patient I know it's hard,
I know it's tough. I know many of us wanted
to end the year with a big move, but unfortunately

(06:05):
that didn't happen, and we have to work with the
market that we have here. But we're at least looking
at the data and the charts and the macro. We're
looking at everything, not just one data point right, you
can't just look at charts. And here's a list of
things that are on our side as we head into
twenty twenty six. So of course, the Fed ended quantitative tightening.
They have started QI that started on December twelfth, That

(06:28):
liquidity will start making its way into markets and so forth.
Plus you got other central banks around the world doing stimulus.
You have lower rates that are happening. We got to
cut this month. I expect more in twenty twenty six.
Trump is talking about a stimulus, so the two K stimulus.

Speaker 2 (06:44):
Checks from the tariff revenue.

Speaker 1 (06:46):
The Genius Act implementation is in process, Clarity Act is
coming up, the Market Structure Bill, you got a pro
crypto FED schare that's going to be put into place.
We have obviously a pro crypto president, pro crypto sec,
pro crypto Treasury Secretary, procrypto CFTC chair, and banks are
accepting crypto as collateral. So this is what was posted

(07:07):
by the user Mark Chadwick, and he summarized it pretty
well here. So there's a lot of things on our
side here, guys.

Speaker 2 (07:15):
Even though we've.

Speaker 1 (07:17):
Faced a lot of uncertainty and this year has been
really tough, you know, overall from the markets, especially with
the tariffs and other factors. But I'm optimistic that we're
going to see a rebound. Markets don't go in one
direction forever. If history has taught us anything, right, you
just go look at the charts. Markets don't go in
the same direction forever. So it's a matter of if
you are patient. And that's the thing that trips up

(07:39):
a lot of people, right, folks. This episode is brought
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Speaker 2 (08:09):
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Speaker 1 (08:09):
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Speaker 2 (08:50):
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Speaker 1 (08:50):
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Speaker 2 (08:55):
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Speaker 1 (08:55):
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All right, let's jump into some news. Russia's Central bank
signals shift toward retail crypto access. Of course, who the

(09:17):
hell is going.

Speaker 2 (09:18):
To ban crypto?

Speaker 1 (09:19):
They're going to I've said it many times at nauseum.
You guys are probably tired to hear me saying this,
any country that bans crypto, they're writing their economic death sentence.
So the Bank of Russia put forward a policy proposal
that would allow non qualified investors to buy certain cryptocurrencies.
According to a Tuesday announcement, the central banks proposal would
allow both qualified and non qualified investors to buy most crypto,

(09:43):
but with limitations. Non qualified investors would be limited to
yet to be defined set of liquid crypto after passing
a knowledge test capped at three hundred thousand rubles eight
hundred and thirty four dollars a year. Qualified investors would
gain broad mark it access excluding privacy coins, also subject
to acknowledged tests. So obviously they're crawling before they walk

(10:06):
and they run right. And a lot of these countries,
it's not that they don't necessarily want people to invest
in crypto. Is they're afraid of capital flight risk. They're
also afraid they can't tax it. They need to make
sure they have their regulations in place. That's what this is, right,
That's why they're staggering it here. We've seen other countries
do this. But the fact is, look at what's happening.
They're slowly opening it up and eventually once they can

(10:28):
track it and tax it and get their cut.

Speaker 2 (10:30):
They're going to open it up completely. So this is
very bullish.

Speaker 1 (10:35):
And we know people around the world want crypto and
if you try to block it, they're going to go
use a VPN or something and go, you know, buy
it on another exchange in another country and all that stuff. Okay,
moving ahead, Visa says crypto officially went mainstream this year.
So this was a big year for crypto. I know
the prices didn't reflect that, but for crypto adoption, guys,

(10:56):
it was huge. The biggest banks, the biggest credit card companies,
payment companies, stock exchanges all in brace crypto. They're launching ETFs,
they're tokenizing, they're using stable coins, they launched crypto trading
and custody and much more.

Speaker 2 (11:10):
So.

Speaker 1 (11:10):
It's been a huge year for crypto, and man, some
people were talking about it recently. The dichotomy between the
adoption that we're seeing and the price has never been
this insane, right, So here's hoping fingers crossed the twenty
twenty six. It starts, the price starts to catch up
to all this news. And here's an example. Crypto mergers

(11:33):
and acquisitions hit a record eight point six billion dollars
in twenty twenty five, So it's amazing, it's amazing. We
had tons of acquisitions, mergers, A lot of companies went public,
and I expect more to go public in twenty twenty six.
And that's one of reason why I'm saying these companies
are going to are not going to go public in
a bear market. That means there has to be price

(11:54):
action to match it. That means there has to be liquidity,
cheap capital, like with lower rates, stimulus and all these things.
So let's pray and hope, guys. You know again the
price catches up to all these things.

Speaker 2 (12:07):
And look at this.

Speaker 1 (12:08):
Hashke secures two hundred and fifty million dollars for a
new crypto fund amid significant interests. So despite the market downturn,
look at the amount of money these people are raising
and these funds they invest of course in the tokens
as well as the equity of the infrastructure companies, right
the picks and shovels companies. So Hashkei Capital is secure

(12:29):
two hundred and fifty million dollars in commitments in the
first close of its fourth crypto focused fund, amidst significant
interests from institutional investors. Despite shifting market conditions, the fund,
known as Hashki Fintech Multi Strategy Fund for Wow, exceeded
initial expectations as its first close and is targeting a

(12:52):
final size of five hundred million dollars, the company said
in a news release on Wednesday. Hashke did not identify
its investors, but said the commitments came from a mix
of global institutional investors, family offices, and high net worth individuals.
So these people are clearly bullish. They're putting hundreds of
millions of dollars into these funds, and they are looking

(13:14):
for a return. They're not trying to lose their money.
And you know, one of the things some people have
been saying is that some of their recent downturn with cryptos,
that a lot of people have been moving towards precious
metals because gold and silver has been ripping, but also
AI companies, And yes, there's a bit of that, but
I think there's other significant issues with cryptos, especially what

(13:35):
we saw with the largest liquidation ever in the crypto
market on October or tenth, I think it was or thirteenth,
when Trump tweeted out about China terriffs. Right, something broke
then and I think some people are still recovering from that,
the market makers at least, But I think that will
be resolved and it's going to be behind us, and
it's great to see that liquidity and fresh capital is

(13:56):
coming in here now, folks. Coinbase CEO says, re opening
the Genius Act is redline slams a bank lobbying. So
we've been talking a lot about this. The banks are
trying to lobby to change Genius Act. They don't like
that you again are earning great yield from staking as
well as stable coin interest on exchanges like Upholders, Coinbase

(14:18):
or whatever platform you use, because they're giving you bullshit
interests zero point zero one percent in your savings account
right while they're pocketing. I think it's like near four
percent of the interest they're earning, you know, with their
capital sitting at the Fed or whatever at the Treasury.
So they're trying to stop the disruption, but cats out

(14:40):
of the bag already, trains left the station. Ain't no
stopping this, and Crypto is ready to fight. Coinbase c
Brian Armstrong here is saying, Yeah, that's not gonna happen.
They're not gonna be able to reopen that bill and
try to change the language. So in a Sunday post
on ex Armstrong said he was impressed banks could lobby
Congress so openly without back adding that coinbase would continue

(15:02):
pushing back on efforts to revise the law. We won't
let anyone reopen genius, he wrote. He says, my prediction
is banks will actually flip and be lobbying for the
ability to pay interest and yield on stable coins in
a few years, once they realize how big the opportunity
is for them. So it's one hundred percent wasted effort
on their part in addition to being unethical. Armstrong at it.

(15:26):
So he's absolutely right here. So the crypto industry has
to keep fighting these banks. Notice their adopting crypto, but
notice they're trying to change things right, and they don't
like the parts that are disrupting them. And look, I
get it, they're an incumbent and they want to fight.
But the point is, if they want to compete, they
should actually try to do good by their customers instead

(15:47):
of taking the majority of the funds and the money
and giving you less than breadcrumbs zero points zero one percent. Guys, right,
it's pathetic, but you know Jamie Diamond and the guys,
they want to keep their big bonuses, so I'm glad
the disruptive technologies here. And I personally guys steak on platforms,

(16:08):
so I earn money on proof of steak tokens, and
I also participate in yield programs with stable coin, so
I do that on an uphold, which is one of
my sponsors on coinbase as well. So you can do
it with RLUSD, you could do it with Circles us DC,
and I think there are some for teather as well,
but I'm not sure, but yeah, so good luck banks,

(16:30):
and look at this, folks. Speaking of steaking, Bitmine begins
staking eth deposits two hundred and ninety million dollars into
Etherorem proof of steak contract so Etherorem treasury firm Bitmine,
which is headed up by Tom Lee. They have been
buying record amounts of ETH and now they're starting to
stake some. So that's the pretty much a big strategy

(16:51):
of a lot of these digital asset treasury companies that
have proof of steak blockchains or assets in their portfolio,
they can.

Speaker 2 (16:58):
Put it to work and earned yield.

Speaker 1 (17:01):
So it's smart, right, And I think when a bear
Marketer market down turn comes in. That's the great thing
about a proof of steak blockchain because you can just.

Speaker 2 (17:10):
Earn that built in yield.

Speaker 1 (17:12):
So this is pretty cool now, folks, I don't know
how many of you heard about this, but Trust Wallets
they got hacked. Apparently there was a browser extension hack.
But however, there's a compensation process for seven million dollars
to help the victims recoup their.

Speaker 2 (17:30):
Funds.

Speaker 1 (17:31):
So trust wallet has opened a formal claims process for
victims of a version two point six y eight Chrome
extension breach that drained approximately seven million dollars from hundreds
of wallets. So CEO e Owin Chen said a leaked
Chrome web store apikey allow hackers to bypass internal release

(17:52):
checks and publish the malicious update. Trust Wallets is warning
users to avoid fake compensation forms and impersonation that have
immerged in awake of the incident. So, as always, guys,
double check verify, don't trust verify. So if you got
hit in this you know hack, you know, make sure
you submit to the right form. Just double check all

(18:15):
your stuff, change your passwords, you know, go through the
normal security checks, guys, but just be careful.

Speaker 2 (18:21):
Out there, Okay.

Speaker 1 (18:22):
Moving ahead, Hong Kong proceeds with licensing regimes for virtual
asset dealers and custodians.

Speaker 2 (18:29):
So this is big.

Speaker 1 (18:30):
Hong Kong is one of the top financial markets out there, guys,
and we know they've been opening up big time for crypto.
So in a Wednesday announcement, the Cities Financial Services and
Treasury Bureau and these Securities and Futures Commission said they
had concluded consultations on proposed licensing regimes, which would require
firms providing crypto dealings or custody services in Hong Kong

(18:53):
to obtain licenses once the framework takes effect. The move
adds to the cities expanding crypto life and seeing framework.
Earlier in twenty twenty five, Hong Kong brought its stable
Coin Ordinance into force, opening a new licensing regime for
stable coin issuers. So again, you're not banning it, just
putting the guardrails. Get your license, you know, report your taxes,

(19:16):
report your transactions, all that stuff.

Speaker 2 (19:19):
So crypto is here to stay.

Speaker 1 (19:20):
All of the things that exist for trad fire are
being put into place for crypto. Okay, moving ahead. Finance lists,
the PSALM pegged stable coin. As Kurzikstan deepens crypto push.
This should come as no surprise. Cz and Binance have
been building tons of relationships in that region of the world, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan,

(19:41):
I think Kazakhstan as well, So of course Binance is
going to get the adoption which benefits them, and of
course it benefits these countries, you know, because finance is
the world's largest exchange. So in a Wednesday expost, the
president of Kurzykistan said the Kurzikstan's KGST, the stable coin
pegged to the sum, would contribute to the development of

(20:05):
cross border payments and deep in the country's ties to
the crypto ecosystem. Finance founders cz Or Champiang's out wrote
on social media that many more nation backed stable coins
would be coming to the exchange. So incredible what's being
built here, folks. Don't miss how insanely amazing this is

(20:26):
that these countries, some of them very small, are embracing crypto,
launching their own stable coins, launching crypto trading regulations and
much more. Okay, final news item, This one is pretty interesting.
The IMF says El Salvador is in talks to sell
this state run Chievo bitcoin wallet.

Speaker 2 (20:43):
Remember all the.

Speaker 1 (20:44):
Years the IMF were criticizing El Salvador, now they're trying
to buy their wallet. This is insane, man, in a
good way. I mean, it's huge capitulation, but we've been
seeing it all over the place. So the statement followed
a made deal with El Salvador in which the IMF
would pay one hundred and twenty million dollars as part

(21:05):
of a twenty twenty four loan agreement for one point
four billion dollars. As part of the deal, the government
would stop acquiring bitcoin. It's unclear whether El Salvador is
abiding by the terms of the deal, though the IMF
report in July that the country's government had not purchased
any bitcoin since twenty twenty four. El Salvador's bitcoin office
continues to announce crypto buys, including one thousand and ninety

(21:27):
bitcoin worth one hundred million dollars in November.

Speaker 2 (21:31):
So this is so strange. But look, we know crypto
and blockchains here to stay.

Speaker 1 (21:37):
So someone has to capitulate, all right, and I think
the IMF, the BIS, all these folks are capitulating big time.
They for years were trashing bitcoin and much more in
what these countries are doing now. It's a complete one
eighty folks, that's the news.

Speaker 2 (21:53):
Let me know what you think.

Speaker 1 (21:54):
Leave your thoughts and comments below hit the thumbs up button.
Hope you're all doing well and you know you're enjoy
your holidays and as we head into twenty twenty six,
you know you have a happy, healthy, amazing year. And folks,
be sure to support the podcast by subscribing to my
free email newsletter. It's on substack. Link would be in
a description. Check out my book on Amazon. It's available

(22:15):
in paperback in digital. Grab a copy and check out
my course at mycryptocurse dot com. This is a comprehensive
course that teaches you everything you need.

Speaker 2 (22:23):
To know about crypto.

Speaker 1 (22:25):
So, folks, thank you for tuning in. Folks, I appreciate
you all and I'll talk to you all later

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