PREPARE FOR A VOLATILE WEEK FOR BITCOIN & ALTCOINS AS FED TALKS RATE CUTS!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
On your way in. Please hit that subscribe button as
well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment.
Blow If you're listening on a podcast platform such as
Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks,
it is going to be a volatile week. We're going

(00:26):
to hear from the Fed Jerome Powell, and they're going
to advise us if they are indeed cutting rates. Now
many folks are expecting that the Fed is going to
cut and it's going to be twenty five basis points.
So that's going to come up on Wednesday. We're going
to hear around two pm. You guys know the usual schedule.
But of course, any week there's an FOMC meeting or hearing,

(00:46):
there's a lot of volatility. You can't really judge the
market right, and I think whales play with people's emotions
and they pump and then they fake us out and
they dump on us and much more so expect volatility.
We're really going to have to wait for the settle
to see what's going to happen. But you know, CME
group FED futures, everybody's expecting the twenty five basis points cut.

(01:07):
It's currently a ninety six point four percent. Now, the
Fed could surprise us by doing fifty basis points, and
I think that could be very bullish. But as I've
said recently, it could be a double edged sword where
people see that level of a cut being you know,
bad in a sense that the economy is not in
a great place, which I don't think it is. I
think we're in a light recession and the FED is panicking, right,

(01:30):
so let's see what happens. Nevertheless, you know, the macro
thesis of the bullmarket's still in play. Global liquidity continues
to be one of the key indicators, and that, as
I've been saying guys, is on the rise again. It
has recovered, but it hasn't broken the all time high yet.
I think it will, so we have to be patient here.
What we are seeing is that all coins are on

(01:51):
the move, even the stock markets on the move. The
S and P five hundred, the NASDA can much more
continue to make new highs. So again, the macro bullmarket's
still in Tech and gold. We talked about gold in
yesterday's podcast and that it has been on a tear,
but I think it's topping out. It's in the overbought zone,
so we should expect to see a correction and the
rotation of liquidity. If you look at Total three for

(02:14):
the all coins that has been on the rise as well,
we've been seeing a lot of all coins move, but
we're seeing a bit of a correction right now. And
you know, over the past week or so, if you
look at the top ten or fifteen, Solana, dogecoin, and
many other all coins have been ripping, I think even
avax here. So you're seeing life, but we're not seeing
parabolic moves yet right clearly, And there's not this massive

(02:35):
bullish sentiment out there. Don't get me wrong. People are bullish,
but it's not your Fouria bullish, right, So those things
come when you get into the final stages of the bullmarket. Now,
with this situation of global liquidity starting to recover, as
I've been telling you guys, I think this bull market
could potentially extend into twenty twenty six, and that Q

(02:55):
four could be a local top. No guarantees, We're going
to have to wait and see, but I think Arthur Hayes,
the bit mechs co founder, and he definitely understands the macro.
He was on an interview recently and he said the
same thing. He thinks money printing is going to extend
the cryptocycle into twenty twenty six. So once again, no guarantees,
there's no nothing. We don't know one has a crystal ball,

(03:16):
not me, not Arthur, not anyone else. But we're going
to look at the data at least and not our
emotions and make our decisions based on that. And obviously
we have to wait for certain data to keep updating,
like global liquidity, but all the other signals that we
usually track they're not flashing. So again we're not just
using one metric, We're using multiple and the major one

(03:36):
I think is global liquidity. So folks hang in there.
You know, at the beginning of September, I said, look,
first half of September, I think we are going to
be not in a good place. They're going to see
corrections and much more. Second half things start to bottom
out and we start climbing, and in October we start
hitting new highs. I could be wrong, but that's what
I'm thinking based on what we're seeing in the market.

(03:59):
So patience is the key. My friends now investment giant
Capital Group's one billion dollar bet on bitcoin treasuries balloons
to six billion dollars. So we continue to see lots
of capital flowing into the crypto market in different ways,
digital acid treasury companies ETFs directly into crypto projects, into

(04:21):
IPOs and too, crypto infrastructure companies, and much more so.
Capital Group, a ninety four year old mutual fund powerhouse
known for its conservative investment approach, has grown a one
billion dollar position in bitcoin related stocks into more than
six billion dollars. Mark Casey, a portfolio manager with twenty

(04:42):
five years at Capital Group, let the firms move into bitcoin. Casey,
who describes his investment style as shaped by Benjamin Graham
and Warren Buffett, has become an advocate for bitcoin. According
to a Sunday report by The Wall Street Journal, here's
a quote. I just think it's so interesting, Casey said
during a podcast interview with venture firm and Dreessen Horoiz.

(05:03):
He called bitcoin one of the coolest things that was
or that has ever been created by people. Over the
past four years, Capitol Group has built its exposure primarily
through investments in so called bitcoin treasury companies, public firms
that accumulate and hold bitcoin on their balance sheets. So
the portfolio is pretty diversified. So it includes micro strategy.

(05:25):
Of course, you've got Marathon Holdings, Meta Planet, that's the
micro strategy of Japan. So pretty interesting that these old
school legacy firms are getting involved in crypto, and many
of them are starting with bitcoin as we've seen many times,
and then they expand to all coins. It's the same
pattern we continue to see. So all of this is

(05:47):
very bullish. I think many of these firms recognize crypto's
the next big trade and that this technology is here
to stay. Plus you have crypto legislation getting passed, so
they have the clarity. And this is why I know.
I say it's a lot. I'm not just banking on
this bull market cycle, but the future cycles as well.
Twenty twenty eight to twenty thirty, and I'll be here
in the bear market and I'll be telling you guys, hey,

(06:09):
don't panic. Get ready to buy the blood in the
streets right right now, I'm telling you get ready to
sell because we're nearing the top of the market where
dumb money comes in, it gets euphoric and much more.
And then when we start going into the bear market
and correcting, I'm going to be backing that truck up
to buy the dips. Same recipe, same strategy I've used

(06:30):
to make money in the past, and I will continue
to squeeze as much juice out of this orange if
you want to call it that, in this acid class,
because it's still very young. This is the opportunity of
the lifetime, So very bullish stuff here now, folks. A
great way to invest in the crypto market is by
going through an IRA. I Trust Capital provides you with

(06:52):
a self directed IRA where you can invest in eighty
plus crypto assets and you can trade twenty four to
seven and there are no monthly fees, and its low cost,
and best of all, there's a huge tax advantage because
you're doing it through an IRA, so I Trust Capital
offers this. They also offer what's called a premium custody account,
and folks, this is one of the safest ways to

(07:13):
custody your crypto assets. I believe it is the second
safest to self custody on a hardware wallet because they
are using bank tier custody services. They use fireblocks, coin
based custody, fidelity and much more. And that's what the
big institutions use. So you can rest the shore and
sleep at night. Your assets are safe because once again

(07:34):
it is using the top tier crypto custody services which
is being used by institutions. So I have an account
what I trust capital and Folks, if you sign up
using my link, you can get one hundred dollars funding bonus.
So IRA a great option and if you already have
a four to one k or an IRA, you can
roll it over to the IRA service that they have.

(07:55):
And once again, the crypto custody service is a great option. Again,
one of the safest options. So check out the link
in the description to learn more. Now, look at this news, folks,
Pakistan's crypto regulator invites crypto firms to get licensed serve
forty million local users. Folks, do you see what's happening?

(08:16):
And it's not only happening in the United States, it
is happening across the globe. You know, just this week
we talked about Kazakhs, Non Hong Kong and other jurisdictions,
and look at Pakistan of all places, right, you wouldn't
think would be embracing crypto, but I think they all
recognize where the puck is heading in that this technology
is here to stay, and they're inviting crypto firms, Hey,

(08:38):
come set up a shop, because no one wants to
get left behind. This industry in technology is going to
create a ton of jobs and a lot of tax revenue,
which you know the governments love, and they're going to
take their cutoff course. So the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority,
formed in July, has called on global crypto firms to
apply for local licenses to serve Pakistan's forty million digital

(09:00):
asset users. Only firms that have already been recognized by
regulators in a major region such as the US or
EU may apply for a license. Pakistan has been warming
up to crypto and appointed Finance co founder cz Chen
thing Zau to an advisory post earlier this year. Very bullish, folks.
The on rams being built across the globe not only

(09:23):
for retail but institutional investors. The big money to come in.
So this is why if you're here early and you've
been buying the blood on the streets, dull a cost averaging,
you are on the side of smart money now Obviously,
you don't want to just watch your portfolio go up
and then go down and bear market. You want to
make sure you're taking profits if you are planning to.
Some of you have said, hey, look I don't care,

(09:44):
I don't need the money. I'm going to wait till
twenty thirty. That's fine. Just understand the implications right that
these markets are cyclical and your portfolio will go down.
So if that's going to bother you, and you know
you need the money to maybe buy a house or
pay off debt, whatever it is, right, you got to
make sure that you identify the top zone, which is

(10:04):
you know what I've been calling it, and take your
profits because no one can call the exact top the day,
the hour, you know that type of thing. But we're
going to look for the top zone where things are
getting your fork and exit the market. But clearly crypto's
here to stay. It's being embraced by many governments and
jurisdictions around the world. And as I mentioned, the on

(10:24):
aram's being built now. Ethereum Foundation sets end to end
privacy roadmap with private rights reads and proving, so we
know there's a lot of development happening on Ethereum, and
obviously the Etheroum Foundation is leading that charge, and EATH
is getting a lot of adoption from many big institutions
like black Rock and so forth. They often start with

(10:44):
building on Etherorem, and it's the number one smart contract platform,
it has the first move advantage, it has the security,
it's never had downtime. Those are facts. Whether you like
Ethereum or you don't, you can't ignore those facts. So
the Ethereum Foundations Privacy and Skiing Explorations team rebranded to
Privacy Stewards of Etherrem and release a roadmap outlining current

(11:06):
progress toward building comprehensive end to end privacy on the blockchain.
The roadmap is oriented around three focus areas, private rights,
private reads, and private proving, with the goal of making
private unchain actions on Etherorem ubiquitous, cheap and compliant. So, folks,
if you're going to have institutions building on your blockchain,

(11:27):
you have to have some sort of privacy solution. We've
seen a lot of folks develop zkproof or z zero
knowledge proof, and I think that's a great technology. So
it looks like Etherorem is trying to expand here and
if you're going to have banks and certain institutions using
your blockchain, you can't have private data and information out
there where anyone can view it on the blockchain, right,

(11:49):
some of it has to be secured. So we got
to find that balance. If you want your transactions out
there and it's not a big deal, that's fine, but
if you need privacy, you got to have it. And
look has a lot of layer twos and some who
are privacy focused, but the base layer, the layer one,
needs that built in natively. So very interesting move here

(12:10):
by the folks at etherorem And by the way, guys,
speaking of privacy, if you saw my interview with Yuval Ruse,
who is the co founder and see of Digital Asset,
which is working on the Canton network, it is a
institutional focus blockchain that has privacy built in natively, So
make sure you check out that interview. Because they've gotten
investments from Citadel Securities, Goldman Sachs, and recently you know

(12:36):
there was talks of big banks joining the Canton Foundation.
So this is a blockchain to watch. And when they
launched their token, I'll let you guys know if I
plan to invest, But this is one to watch because huge,
huge names, huge institutions are behind it. So check out
that interview is published four days ago. All right, moving ahead,
Polymarket ways financing at a nine to ten billion dollars evaluation,

(13:00):
while Kelshy is close to raising at five billion dollar valuation.
So the prediction market competition and race is heating up here.
Polymarket is obviously the more famous one, and they got
a ton of attention in the election with them calling
certain wins, especially around the presidency with Donald Trump and
much more. But obviously it's blockchain power and this is

(13:23):
the future, folks. And you're seeing the financialization of so
many things, and blockchain is enabling that and enabling the
trust factor, the ability to trade twenty four to seven
a truly global market. So look at the valuations these
companies are coming in that it's pretty crazy. I think
a lot of people recognize this is the future. I've

(13:44):
often said, the markets, the economies, the governments will all
be running on blockchain rails. Voting will be powered by
blockchain eventually to eliminate fraud, and all those things. Payments
to and from the government will be powered by stable
coins and much more so. This this is amazing. These
blockchain powered companies are going to get a lot of capital,

(14:05):
so prediction market platforms, polymarketing Telshi are considering raising additional
capital at valuations of nine billion dollars and five billion dollars, respectively,
according to the information, which cited anonymous sources. Here's a quote.
Polymarket has considered an offer that would value the company
as much as nine billion dollars, according to people who

(14:26):
have spoken to the company's leaders. That would be a
huge jump in price for the startup, which raised money
at a one billion dollar valuation earlier this summer. At
least one investor offered a term sheet valuing Polymarket as
high as ten billion dollars. Business Insider reported Polymarket, which
allows users to wager on events including elections and sports

(14:49):
like NFL football, is expected to relaunch in the United States.
Polymarket has been given the green light to go live
in the USA by this CFDC CEO Shane Copeland said
early this month, So incredible stuff, folks, It's amazing. And
then you have a lot of companies going public, right
We just had Gemini go public on Friday, and Etrah

(15:10):
went public, and you had Circle of course, which was
the biggest one, and expect to see more companies going
public before this bullmarket ends. So we are in a
bull market, folks. It's exciting times. I know the prices
can be a roller coaster ride, but that's the nature
of market. It's cyclical. You have to accept that reality
and those facts. That is why I keep harping on,

(15:31):
don't be emotional, be educated. Let's look at the charts,
Let's look at the patterns. Let's look at the data
and the metrics and the signals and form our thesis
and stick with that versus our gut feeling and our
emotions how we feel on any given day or though
the price went up today went down. You can't be
hyper focused on the hourly, daily, weekly, because that stuff

(15:54):
is going to wreck you. Right, the whales are going
to wreck you. They're very smart. They use bots, they
use all kinds of stuff to shake you out. But
as the saying goes, time in the market is better
than trying to time the market. So you know, I
can attest to that, being in the market since twenty sixteen,
and then look, I had to take my bruises, right,

(16:14):
I had to learn how to navigate the markets. But
then I realized buy the blood on the streets and
everybody's fearful and just hold. You got to be patient
and you hold. And guys, if I showed you my
portfolio right now, many of you would be like WHOA
Like even myself, I get shocked by it because I've
never made this amount of money anywhere else, not even

(16:36):
in working, getting equity payouts at a job or things
like that. So Crypto has been life changing for me.
And like I said, I'm going to be taking profitsis
cycle payoffs of debt, spend some of course, put some
away from retirement, and get ready to reinvest in the

(16:56):
bloody beer market. So that's my strategy. You don't have
to follow me, but if you want to come along
with me for the journey happy, I'm going to be
sharing you know, all these things. So, folks, that's the news.
Let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and
comments below hit the thumbs up button. A great way
you can support me in the podcast is by subscribing
to my free email news that are on Substack. It
is one hundred percent free. Check out the link in

(17:17):
the description. I do a weekly update to provide a
ton of data in there, things that you can learn
and keep up with on regards to the market. Also
check out my book on Amazon. It is available in
paperback and digital, and my course at Mycrypto course dot com.
This is a comprehensive course that teaches you every aspect
of crypto, so check it out if you want to

(17:39):
expand your knowledge. Folks, thank you so much for watching
and listening. I appreciate you all and I'll talk to
you all later

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