Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
SEC chair Paul Atkins made huge statements today about crypto
rules that are coming very soon and opening up the
ipo market for twenty twenty six. This bodes well for
the continuation of the crypto bowl market, and Bank of
America has capitulated following Vanguard telling their wealth advisors to
tell their clients to invest in bitcoin and crypto. I'll
(00:22):
give you the details. Let's get into it. Hey, everybody,
welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home for cryptocurrency
news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward. On your
way in. Please let that subscribe button as well as
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you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple,
(00:45):
please leave a five star rating and review. Folks, Bitcoin
is on the move. It is currently near ninety three
thousand dollars. Now this should come as no surprise because
we've been talking about the extreme fear sentiment, right everyone
thinking the top is in, that's it, it's over, and
bitcoin being in the over soul zone. The RSI and
the daily chart showed we were over sold. So the
(01:07):
natural direction of the market is to do the opposite
of the herd and what people are saying. But the
big question, as we've been talking about, and I actually
wrote about it in my newsletter today, and that is
is this just a relief rally, a dead cat bounce,
and they will roll over to go into lower lows,
into a bear market. That's a possible scenario. Or is
(01:28):
this the start of the continual move from what could
be a local bottom once again and we continue to
do all time highs. So those are the two scenarios there.
No one has a crystal ball, no one has the
time machine, So we're just looking at the chart and
looking at the data and seeing what can play out here.
And obviously this is all probability, so we want to
(01:48):
look at which has the higher potential to play out.
Now on the weekly chart, Bitcoin of course seeing a
green candle here, but the bears are still in control,
but they're losing some momentum on the mac D. Expect
that to continue and to have the MACD flip bullish. However,
the monthly chart is the challenge because that is flipped
red on the MACD and that's not a good sign
(02:09):
because historically that is the end of the ball market.
Right that we're rolling into a bear market. However, if
you look back at the chart, it's specifically around twenty
eighteen to twenty nineteen we had the flipping of the
bears to the bowl, then quickly back to the bears.
So could something like that play out again? It's possible, right.
It doesn't mean everything has to play out the same
(02:31):
in every cycle, and I think certainly this time around
we are seeing some differences. For example, Bitcoin broke all
time highs before the having that was because of the
Bitcoin ETF launch. You have the ETFs buying significant amount
of bitcoin. Plus you have the digital acid treasury companies
like your micro strategies, your metaplanets and others. So there's
(02:53):
more liquidity, more holders, and so on and so forth.
So could this four year cycle have some d aviations
and new updates to it. Sure, we're gonna have to
wait and see. You know, we've got to get confirmation here.
So could this mac de flip back to bullish and
the bull market continues? Sure, but right now history is
(03:15):
not on its side, So I don't know what's gonna
happen here, folks. There are a lot of conflicting things
here because I see certain things on the charts. But
yet the macro and all the things we're seeing adoption,
what the Fed is doing and much more is pointing
us to a bull market continuing. So we're gonna have
to see, is it Maybe Bitcoin is not going to
(03:37):
do that well as cycle, but all coins are gonna
catch up once the Market Structure Bill passes. You know,
once again, that's speculation, but it's a possible scenario. But
I think we're gonna have to wait and see. It
is certainly uncharted waters here now. Speaking of the FED.
By the way, the FED has officially ended quantitative tightening
(03:57):
that ended yesterday, and look at this. They did, I
waste any time injecting liquidity. So the Federal Reserve pumped
thirteen point five billion dollars into the US banking system
through overnight repos. This is the second largest liquidity injection
since COVID and surpasses even the peak of the dot
com bubble. So this is kind of like stealth QWI.
(04:18):
It's not full on QI but you know, oftentimes they
will do things like this, inject liquidity where needed, and
they'll call it. They won't call it QWI, they'll call
it some different name or whatever it is. Right, but
any type of activity like that does make its way
to the market eventually. And Calshi right now says there's
a ninety one percent chance of a twenty five basis
(04:38):
point cut in December, so the odds of the ray
cut this month is up. The same thing with the
CME FED futures of Watch, so you got liquidity injections
and then you've got ray cuts continuing. So all this
bodes well for the market. Just the charts are saying
one thing, but the macro saying something else. So that's
where we get this interesting dichotomy, folks. And look at
(05:02):
this SEC chair Paul Atkins today made the rounds. He
was at the New York Stock Exchange, he was at
the NASDAC as well. He was on CNBC and he
made some very big statements. Here are some of the
statements he made. He says innovation exemptions for crypto firms
is coming in January. So he hinted that the government
shut down, slow things down, and now they're ready to
(05:23):
release this stuff. And this is in addition to the
market structure bill. He also said they are ready to
kick off policies in the new year to boost IPOs
I've often told you guys, who the hell doesn't IPO
in a bear market when liquidity's drying up? Right, it
just doesn't make sense. And there are a lot of
crypto companies that are looking to go public, like Securitize, Grayscale,
(05:45):
Krackt and others. So what's happening here? Again the dichotomy, Right,
the charts are saying one thing, but the macro is
setting up here. And this is not just rumors. These
companies have filowed with the sec to go public. So
that's where I'm scratching my head, like, wait a minute,
why the hell would they go public when the market's
(06:06):
tanking and we're losing liquidy and there's nobody here in
no retail, right, So something is weird here. Plus you
got the market structure bills setting up. Now, let me
play some comments from Paul Atkins interview on CNBC.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Can you do what needs to be done with crypto
without legislation and do you think that that can happen
before the end of the year. I'm looking forward to
having an innovation exemption that we've been talking about. Now
we'll be able to get that out in a month
or so. Is what I'm hoping we were impeded a
(06:40):
bit by the government shutdown. Obviously we couldn't work on
things during that time. That we're on track and we
will be able to forge forward with a crypto area
and make sure that we are able to embrace this
new area of innovation that for too long the United
States basicly is just pushed back against. And so I'm
(07:04):
looking forward to having rules that are focused on helping
that sector of the economy move forward.
Speaker 1 (07:12):
So you see, you're getting these bullish statements from Paul
Atkins and they want to open things up and IPOs
and much more. And he's at the New York Stock Exchange,
he's as an at the NASDAC and it's like, man,
this is so strange, right, and then you got the
ETFs that have been going live, but yet, like I said,
the charts are still showing some worrysome signs, and in addition,
(07:35):
we are seeing some of the biggest capitulations and adoption
of crypto. Right. So we just reported yesterday about Vanguard,
after saying they will never offer ATFS, now they offer
bitcoin ethererem xr piece al on ATFS. And look at
this Bank of America is Following suit, Bank of America
green lights Wealth Advisors to recommend up to four percent
bitcoin allocation. And guess what they said? This is starting
(07:58):
in January, so what the hell is happening? Guys? The
bank advisors will initially focus on four spot bitcoin ETPs,
including Blackrocks, Ibit, and Fidelity's FBTC. This move aligns Bank
of America with other major institutions like black Rock and
Morgan Stanley, increasing pressure on holdouts such as Wells Fargo
(08:19):
and Goldman Sachs. Guess what, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs
will eventually bend the knee. But guys, look at the
timing of all this, you would think these things would
happen right before the top, right what maybe the case
is we will see Bitcoin maybe not go that high,
but it will pump and pump aggressively, and all coins
(08:41):
will follow, and then we have a blow off top.
It's just a weird time. I'm trying to make sense
of it and looking at the data and not to
be emotional, but I hope you understand what I'm trying
to say here. I'm trying to show you the full
landscape of the possibilities and what's happening on both sides, right,
I'm not ignoring the bearer signals. I shared the coin
monthly chart. The other thing I shared in my newsletter today, folks,
(09:03):
was that the bitcoin whales, you know, they have been
distributing the wallets with ten or more bitcoin. Now, that
in itself does not signal the market top is in,
because we saw that throughout this bull market. In fact,
after Q two twenty twenty four, it was a massive
sell off, right. I think many of you recall the
Bider rum or sell the news event. Bitcoin went to
seventy seven thousand, and we had a huge, huge dump
(09:26):
and it was huge whale distribution on that news, right,
a greater decline than what we're seeing now. But then
they started accumulating and the bullmarket continued. Same thing could
happen here. But this is not a positive sign, if
you know what I mean. It's been in over a
month of decline here, so we want to see a
reversal that these whales start accumulating. So I'm going to
(09:48):
keep refreshing this data every day. But I hope you
just understand what I'm saying. We are seeing just some
conflicting things here. It is pretty wild, but look, we
got to go with it. This is the nature of market.
I am still leaning more on the bowler's side because
of the macro, but I am not ignoring the bearer's side, right,
And you may disagree with me and say, hey, Tony,
(10:09):
you know what, I don't agree with you there. I'm
leaning more of the bear side, and that's fine. This
is why you each do your own research. I'm just
here to present different cases to you, different scenarios, and
we try to figure this out together. But this is
a pretty rare time, right because once again you got
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officially recognizes digital assets. The UK has today taken an
(12:00):
important step forward in recognizing the role of digital assets
in the modern economy. A new law has come into
effect confirming that qualifying digital assets, including cryptotoken, stable coins
and NFTs, can be treated as property under UK law.
This is incredible, folks, and we are seeing globally clarity,
(12:22):
the rules and the guidelines, the guard wheels being put
into place. Yes, they're gonna tax it, but they're not
banning it. Like people have been saying for a long time.
The governments are not gonna lie, they're gonna ban It's
gonna die, big One's gonna die. Crypt No. Uh, this
is the future. This technology, as I've been telling you guys,
will power the governments, the economies, and the market. So
this is really great and very bullish, and once again
(12:45):
we're seeing it happen globally. Here's another example. Japan has
said it will implement a flat twenty percent tax on
cryptocurrency gains. So that's pretty good. I wish the United
States would do something like that. So regardless of your
income level, they'll tax you at a certain rate. Obviously
the lower the better. I believe capital gains tax is
(13:05):
highway robbery by the government. You take your already tax money,
you invested, you make gains, and the government comes and
takes a big cut of it. Right. I think many
of you agree with me on that, but look, it
is what it is. Now. Look at this news. Taurus
taps ever Steak to expand crypto staking options for banks
(13:26):
and institutions. So the infrastructure being built for these massive
institutions to participate in crypto. So the deal folds ever
Stakes validator operations into Taurus' regulated custody stack, giving banks
a way to steak without shifting control of their assets.
The move comes as institutions look for compliance staking infrastructure
beyond the largest networks, with Taurus continuing to broaden its
(13:49):
on chain services after its recent US expansion. Very bullish news.
Look at this. Kraken adds backed Finance to twenty twenty
five inquisition. Streak brings x stocks in house. So we
all know Kracken is looking to do an IPO and
they're tokenizing stocks and looking to expand as much as possible.
(14:10):
So US based crypto exchange Kraken has agreed to acquire
Backed Finance ag The company behind the issuance of x stocks,
adding to a string of acquisitions the exchange has made
this year while bringing the tokenized equities platform under its roof.
According to Tuesday's announcement, Kraken plans to integrate x stocks
issuance trading in settlement more tightly into its products, including
(14:34):
its Global Money app, while expanding support to additional blockchains
and markets. X stocks is a platform that issues tokenized
versions of publicly traded equities such as stocks and exchange
traded funds. It currently offers over sixty tokenized products and
has recorded more than ten billion dollars in combined exchange
(14:56):
and on chain volume since launching earlier this year. Tokenized
assets are live on Solana and Etheroereum blockchains. So again
you want to look at where are these things being
tokenized on and make sure you hold the tokens of
those set blockchains right as you're doing your research. And
obviously there are other factors to consider, but you know, adoption,
(15:18):
real world adoption is very important. I do hold both
Solona and e Theorem in my portfolio. And look at
this news moving ahead, group of EU banks pushes for
a europeg stable coin by twenty twenty seven. So all
the banks and major financial institutions a stock exchange are
all on board, folks. They know that blockchain infrastructure will
(15:41):
power the markets and the economies. So a group of
ten banks plans to introduce a europeg stable coin in
twenty twenty six under an entity authorized by the Dutch
Central Bank. In a Tuesday notice, BNP Paravis said it
would join nine other EU based banks in an effort
to launch a year row back stable coin in the
(16:01):
second half of twenty twenty six. The Amsterdam based entity,
formed by the bank's Quidvalis. If I'm saying that right,
will launch a stable coin compliant with the region's markets
in crypto assets MIKA framework, subject to regulatory approval. Here's
a quote. A native eurostable coin isn't just convenience, It's
(16:21):
about monetary authonomy in the digital age, said Quivalis CEO
Jan Oliver Sell. He continues saying, here presenting new opportunities
for European companies and consumers to interact with on chain
payments and digital asset markets in their own currency. Now,
when you have a group of banks that are building
a stable coin, you got to watch out because that
(16:43):
I believe is like a pseudo CBDC, a central bank
digital currency, and it's just coming under a new skin
or name or look and feel. But you know, at
the end of the day, all these banks are plugged
into the central bank and they're all using the same
stable coin. Again, it looks and smells like a CBDC.
So it's not necessarily that CBDCs are bad, but it
(17:07):
just opens up the door for the governments to manipulate it.
And while it may not happen. Now, we got to
be vigilant because it's you know, at any point you
give them that power, someone comes in, they abuse that power,
and then they can use it nefariously, right and silence
you turn your money off program it so certain people
(17:28):
can't use it. So look, you just look at history, right,
human beings. Human beings are gonna human to be human. Right,
And we've seen what absolute power and all these things
can do and corrupt people and all that. Right. So anyway,
I don't want to get off on a tangent, but
I hope you guys understand when I say you've got
to be vigilant. You got to watch out to see
what the rules are. Howarday is a compliant with you know,
(17:50):
the constitutions. And look, this is talking about the EU.
I'm here in the United States and we have heard
about you know, some collective stable coined by some of
the big bang here. But I think people are going
to fight it here with the US constitution. But at
the same time, so you got to be vigilant. You
never know, and we got to watch out for these
(18:10):
things that they don't abuse our rights or steal our rights. Guys.
But as you can see, all the banks, all the
stock exchanges, all the central banks, all the governments, they
are on board to build with this technology. Folks. That's
the news. Let me know what you think. Leave your
thoughts and comments below hit the thumbs up button. A
great way to support the podcast is by subscribing to
(18:30):
my free email newsletter. Like I said, I put out
a write up today's so check it out. Also check
out my book on Amazon it's available in paperback, in digital,
and my course at mycryptocourse dot com. This is a
comprehensive course that teaches you everything you need to know
about crypto. So check it out, folks, if you want
to expand your knowledge about crypto. Thank you so much.
For tuning in. Everyone. I appreciate you all, and I'll
(18:52):
talk to you all later