🚨WHAT'S NEXT FOR BITCOIN & ALTCOINS - UPTOBER OR BEAR MARKET? - Thinking Crypto News & Interviews

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hey, folks, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
On your way in. Please let that subscribe button as
well as the thumbs up button and leave a common below.
If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify
or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks,
we have to talk about the price of bitcoin and
what's happening in the market because many are panicking a

(00:28):
bit worried about what's happened with the market and is
the bullmarket over and much more. But if we look
at the bitcoin chart, something bullish is setting up. Here.
We see that the daily RSI it touched the over
soul zone. Now there's still more downside, I believe here
before we bounce, but the levels it's touching is what
we saw in the tariff crash earlier. This here now

(00:52):
the big downside move which took us below thirty. You
know that we're not there yet, but you know in
the month after, like April, it touched a's levels. That's
very bullish, guys, because in a bear market, when you
have fear right, that is a very good thing. It's
what we've been talking about the markets are going to
correct from the overbought down to the over sold. There's

(01:14):
a reset in this sentiment and then we find the
bottom and then we move. In fact, the Bitcoin fear
and Greed Index show today we were in the fear zone.
Now it has jumped to neutral because bitcoin saw a
little uptick here over one hundred and twelve thousand dollars,
but we touched the fear zone that's very bullish, and
the RSI near that over soul zone. So we've seen

(01:37):
these cyclical patterns throughout the bull market. When in doubt,
zoom out, just go look at the charts, and we
know we're still in the bull market based on multiple factors,
not one. You see, you can't have tunnel vision on
one data point or signals. You got to look at
everything to form your thesis. Now we're talking probabilities here, right,
there's no certainties. I don't have a crystal ball, but

(01:57):
based on the data that you all can look at
your cells and form your own conclusions. Right, But clearly
it's showing us that we're in a bull market. Simple
factor here, we're above the two hundred day moving average clearly, right,
we're still in the uptrend higher highs and higher lows.
So the simple two hundred day moving average shows us this.
Even the Fibonacci extensions, we haven't hit the levels we've

(02:20):
hit in the previous bull markets. Now. I know some
of you're going to say a past performance it's not
an indicative of future performance. I know that, But we
haven't come close to the levels. You know, one thing
could say, Okay, maybe we're a level below and with
all the buying that's happening from the ETFs and so forth,
that is I don't think that's possible. There's a low
probability of that. If you look at the bitcoin weekly chart,

(02:43):
the bears are still in control. But if you zoom
out on the monthly chart, the bulls are in control.
The MACD has not flipped into the bears zone yet.
So this is where again you got to look at
multiple factors, right, So we've seen these peaks and valleys
and when balls are in control and the bears. But
the bulls are still in control here, and the RSI

(03:04):
on the monthly has not gotten to the overheated zone,
the overbought zone that we've seen in the past bull markets.
In addition, global liquidity is indicating we have more upside.
That's another factor. We got Elliott wave analysis where for example,
Credible Crypto highlighted a chart showing we're in a wave

(03:26):
two right now, and he says, this is currently in
the subwave two of five of a larger impulse that
began off of seventy four thousand. So seventy four thousand
is where we crashed into from the tariff pullback, of course,
and we're seeing the bounds from there. So Elliott wave
plus Fibonacci is saying, hey, top not in is yet.

(03:49):
In addition, you got bitcoin dominance. It is nowhere near
the levels we've seen the collapses at the top of
a market, go back to twenty twenty one, twenty two,
twenty eighteen, and all that right nowhere near that. We've
seen collapses along this bull market, such as January twenty
twenty four into March twenty twenty four, just December of course,

(04:12):
twenty twenty four, plus what we've seen from June, but
nowhere near. So again, nowhere there near that, right Plus
stable coin USDT dominance the same thing has not collapsed
to the levels we've seen historically. The bitcoin PI cycle
top indicator nowhere close to flashing the coinbase app rankings. Right.

(04:32):
In the past bull markets, it has held a top
ten to one position in the heated bull market where
you have a euphoria. We have not seen euphoria. We
haven't seen everybody being bullish, everybody in their grandma coming
in and saying this crypto thing is amazing, you should
be buying and investing. We haven't seen anything like that.
We've gotten little appetizers or tastes of it, right, but

(04:55):
nothing like the full course meal that we've seen historically.
Hopefully understan my analogy, there so multiple factors this plus
many other things are showing us the top is not in.
So I think we got more to go here, folks.
There could still be a little bit more downside, the
rtside could dip into the super over sold, you know,
like how we get super overbought. Right, doesn't mean that

(05:18):
has to happen, but just be prepared because we're talking
probabilities here. So this is where sometimes people want you
to tell them, this is what is exactly going to happen.
That's not investing, right, Go play the lottery, Go go
to the casino and know your outcomes right away. That's
not what this is. So we have to look at
the different scenarios and look at which one has the

(05:39):
higher probability of playing out in Folks, I think the
higher probability here is that this bull market's not over
based on the data, not feelings and emotions. So patients
is the key and the other factor, folks. You know,
seasonality wise, the Q fours in a bull market are
very very good for the crypto market and even the

(06:00):
stock market. So historical patterns have shown us that in
these bullmarkets, folks, it is going to be a good
Q four. Now, again not guaranteed, but histories on our side,
the higher probability is that Q four is going to
be really good for market. So again, seasonality is another factor,
and we continue to see incredible buying from the institutions.

(06:22):
Look at the black Rock i bit ETF. They've been accumulating.
They now have over seven hundred and sixty thousand bigcoin
in their ETF. So this number continues to grow. It's
it's an uptrend. Do you think they're anticipating higher prices?
Of course they are the same thing with the digital
acid treasury companies. They are all buying as well. So Bitmind,

(06:42):
which is headed up by Tom Lee, they bought two
hundred and thirty three eight hundred and seventy seven eight
where nine hundred and thirty five point one million dollars
over the past few days. Again, right, look at what's happening.
I'm sharing multiple data points and factors here, not just
a simple chart. Okay, This little thing here on this

(07:03):
chart says we're in a bear market. Okay, but what
about everything else? Right? You got to look at the
market holistically, folks. So hope you understand what I'm trying
to share here, because people are starting to get bearish.
I see it, and they're using one data point and
I'm like, okay, but what about the other factors? Right?
So again, we are in a bull market based on

(07:25):
the data and the information. I think that's the higher
probability here. So just be patient, and I think we
could see what they would call October. Now I'm not
saying October. First, we're gonna pump. I think this correction
could still bleed into October, but then picks up steam
and then we get a lot of momentum, kind of
like what we saw in Q four twenty twenty four, right,

(07:47):
and then face melting rallies into November. We saw that
people all of a sudden forgot about what happened, you
know a few months back in September and August, when
you had the Japanese yen carrier trade collapse. They all
of a sudden forget. And this is where you can
be emotional, because you have to be a student. You
have to be educated and understand where we are coming from,

(08:07):
where we're at right now, where we're going, and I
don't forget those things. So I don't forget about the
rallies that we had earlier in the year, and then
now we're experiencing a correction, and then come Q four.
I think it's October, folks. So that's where I'm putting
my chips. And I don't know if you guys agree
with me, but I think it's important. If you are

(08:29):
going to say, hey, we're in a bear market, you
have to invalidate all these factors, all these metrics and signals, right,
all the items I highlighted there, you got to say
why those are not indicative of a bull market? All right, folks?
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(08:49):
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Treasure link will be in the description. Now look at
this information. This is very interesting. Singapore the UAE are

(09:36):
the most crypto obsessed countries according to a new report,
Singapore and the United Arab Emirates ranke globally as the
most crypto obsessed nations. According to a recent report by
apex Protocol, Singapore claimed the number one spot with a
composite score of one hundred, driven by twenty four point
four percent of its population owning crypto and leading the

(09:57):
world in search activity with two thousand crypto related queries
per one hundred thousand people. In twenty twenty one, only
eleven percent of Singaporeans held digital assets, but that figure
more than doubled by the following year. Now this should
come as no surprise. Here's why Singapore has been one
of the leaders in crypto adoption and crypto friendliness. So

(10:18):
while the crypto industry was attacked severely here in the
United States over the past four years, Singapore was where
a lot of entrepreneurs and builders went to. So I'm
not surprised by this, and I remember a lot of
companies going to Singapore because it was very crypto friendly.
It says here close behind. UAE scored ninety nine point seven,

(10:40):
ranking first globally for crypto ownership at twenty five point
three percent. The Gulf nation saw a two hundred and
ten percent increase in adoption since twenty nineteen, with a
significant boom in twenty twenty two when over thirty percent
of the population reported holding crypto. UAE was also another
crypto friendly zone. So you're seeing the data now of

(11:02):
the adoption by their citizens, and it makes sense if
you've been crypto friendly the whole way while the United
States and other jurisdictions were attacking crypto, then the numbers
are going to skew your way, right. So this is
very very interesting data coming out here, and it looks
like the United States comes in third with ownership at

(11:22):
fifteen point five percent, followed by Canada at ten point
one percent, and Turkey by at number five at nineteen
point three percent. So very very interesting, but great to
see the United States coming at least in the top
five there. I think under Donald Trump's administration, you know,
things have gotten much more friendlier towards crypto. Some more

(11:44):
people are holding crypto now, all right, moving ahead. Nine
DIG calls for bitcoin treasury companies to drop the misleading
m NAB metric. So you know, one of the things
I've been telling you guys about is I see a
bubble forming with the digital acid treasury companies and that
you're going to have a lot of people who are
coming in who may not run their business well and

(12:04):
we have to watch how this could be one of
the things that blows up and sends us into a
crypto bear market. You know, one of the things I
mentioned or reported on this past week was that the
SEC and FINRA we're investigating some of these companies, so
we've got to be careful here. So Strive Asset Management
acquired Similar Scientific in an all stock deal, creating a

(12:25):
combined company with over ten nine hundred bitcoin in its treasury.
The acquisition highlights a potential issue with the m NAB metric,
which is used to value bitcoin treasury firms, but can
be misleading or disingenuous. Nydig claims. Nidig argues that MNAB
fails to account for operating businesses and uses assumed shares outstanding,

(12:48):
which can be inaccurate. So this is a big call
out here. Let's see how some of these companies address this,
and I think we're starting to see some scrutiny and
investigations by the regular Now I'm not saying Strive Asset
Management are Similar Scientific or doing anything wrong here, I
don't know, but I think so many people are trying
to jump on this train very quickly and maybe doing

(13:10):
things they shouldn't do. Right, So I like that Nidigga
is challenging some of these things and making sure these
people are saying the right things and doing the right things,
because we don't want people to get scammed, of course,
but let's see how this developed. Especially, you know, like
I mentioned this week, the SEC and FINRA looking into
some of these companies. Now, folks, let's move ahead. China
inaugurates digital you want Operations Center to push CBDC integration. Now,

(13:35):
I am not a fan of CBDCs, and I'm glad
you live in the United States where there's a ban
on CBDCs right that bill is making its way through Congress.
I've spoken to Congressman Tom Emmer recently. We talked about it.
But you know, other countries, other jurisdictions are going to
do this. And the theme or the takeaway I want
you to get from here is not that CBDCs are good,
but rather, blockchain rails are going to power the governments,

(13:58):
the markets, and the economy, is what I've been telling
you guys. And it's a global movement and every country
is going to do things that are different depending on
where you live. You know, it's up to you to
work with other people that challenge your government and make
sure they're doing the right thing and not trampling your rights.
But we are seeing the direction the puck is heading
in here in China, even you know, very strict in

(14:21):
certain ways because of the Communist government still adopting blockchain
and crypto, and I think Hong Kong is the testing ground.
They've been opening up crypto there, and I believe, like
I've been saying, my prediction is that they're going to
open up bitcoin and etherorem ETF and maybe other ETFs
as well to mainland China citizens because they don't have
to worry about the capital leaving the country because it

(14:42):
will be in an ETF wrapper. So China has quietly
taken a bull step in its bid to expand the
global footprint of its digital currency. On Thursday, the People's
Bank of China inaugurated an international operations center for its
central bank digital currency, the digital Yuan EC and why
in Shanghai. According to a report from the South China

(15:04):
Morning Posts, PBOC Deputy Governor Lou Lay framed the move
as part of a historical inevitability in payments innovation, with
the aim of offering a more efficient, inclusive and open
global cross borders system. So folks, one of the things
we've been talking about is the stable coin wars are

(15:24):
heating up here in the United States as well as globally,
and you know, this is the feature of how money
is going to move. So you can imagine China's watching
the United States and they're looking to push their CBDC
in other markets, especially countries they're helping to develop, like
many countries in Africa. So there's there's a geopolitical layer
to all of this, right, and they you know, they
would love to take down the US dollar as the

(15:46):
world reserve currency. And we had seen recently that bricks
countries were trying to bypass the US dollar, but I
think the United States passing the Genius Actor stable Cooin
bill is a big checkmate to that, and banks and
many others are going to be launching US dollar stable
coins and they will have to back their reserves with
US Treasury. So that is a game changing move and

(16:08):
it's going to you know, allow the United States to
further inject the US dollar in different markets. And the
US dollar is still the world reserve currencies, so people
are gonna want it, and if you can give it
to them in a digital format where they can even
put it on platforms like coinbase. Right. Uh, let's say
us DC is an example. They can earn yield and
move money faster and cheaper. That's going to be a

(16:29):
big win for them, right, and the United States definitely
wants that. So I hope you understand the geopolitical layer
here and what's happening overall. It's not just trading and investing,
its building and using the technology, and of course countries
looking to have their currency used, you know, and everybody's
in that race, right. Like I said, other countries will

(16:52):
love to take down the United States dollar reserve currency status,
but we shall see how that plays out. I think
the United States just selet it fid the dollar as
a world reserve currency for like another fifty to one
hundred years, but maybe maybe more, you know, because we
know the future is going to be more digital, not
less digital. So very interesting. This is a whole other podcast,

(17:16):
you know, because of the geopolitical aspect. But folks, that's
the news. Let me know what you think. Leave your
thoughts and comments below, hit the thumbs up button. If
you appreciated this content, please be sure to sign up
for my free email newsletter on substack It is one
hundred percent free. I put out a write up today,
so check it out guys. It's a lot of the
chart stuff I talked about at the beginning of the podcast.
Also check out my book on Amazon it's available in paperback,

(17:38):
in digital, and my course at Mycrypto course dot com.
It's a comprehensive course that teaches you everything about crypto folks.
Thank you so much for watching and listening. I appreciate
you all and I'll talk to you all later

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🚨WHAT'S NEXT FOR BITCOIN & ALTCOINS - UPTOBER OR BEAR MARKET?

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