Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders joins the Big Show! Concussions, Jaguars, Colts, more - Three & Out Podcast

It's always awesome to get @MikeTanier on the Big Show--and this week we talk DVOA and the Jags, what's up with the Colts, and whether the Lions' beloved coaching staff might be due for criticism.

We also break down the proposed concussion-protocol changes--and as always, pick the full slate of NFL games, straight up and against the spread!

Episode Transcript

(00:14):
Welcome to three and Out, yournational NFL podcast featuring three sports media pros
Metai Shelter from five to thirty eight, join by Samantha Bunton of NBC Sports
and Michael Shoddy of The thirty thirteen. Time for this week's Big Show,
where we go along on big NFLtopics. We also have a big guest
for you, just like always,Mike Tneer of Football Outsiders, one of
our favorite guests. Glad to havehim back on the Big Show. We

(00:37):
also have our big topic, butbefore we get to it, and before
we get to picking every single NFLgame straight up and against the spread,
make sure you're subscribed. Make sureyou are following on Twitter at three outpod,
Instagram at three Outpod. Make sureyou go to three outpod dot com
for all of our feeds, subscriptions, whatever podcatcher you use, it's all

(00:59):
right there. Just on up atthree outpod dot com. Make sure your
subscribe so you don't miss our bigshows. Don't miss our key takeaways.
We go live on Monday mornings eightEastern and break down everything that happened on
Sunday and tell you what you needto know from every single game all right,
guys. Changes coming in the NFL. Andrew Brandt always has deadline spur

(01:22):
action, but pr crises also spuraction in the NFL. Mark Maski at
the Washington Post reports that changes arecoming soon to the NFL's concussion protocol.
The review of what happened in theMiami fiasco those back to back games with
two at Tanailoa It could be completedas soon as this week, and their

(01:46):
view is likely to conclude that theyneed to remove the loophole where if you
look like you got a concussion andhave lost control of your motor functions,
you can't go back in the game, even if you pass the initial concussion
screening, and they can come upwith some sort of bone or muscle related

(02:08):
reason for why you are wobbling likea drunk or appeared to lose control of
your bodily functions, You're just gonnabe out for the rest of the game.
If it looks on TV and inthe stands like you had an obvious
concussion, I guess I'll just goaround and see reaction to this, Shaddy,

(02:29):
What do you think this cuts tothe very core of every time I
have a problem with the NFL's decisionmaking process. It's always something like this,
you're doing the right thing ten yearstoo late. You know, you're
not being proactive about anything you do. It's a pr crisis, as you

(02:52):
said, spurring actions. So isthis the right thing? Sure? But
if you have access to the bestneurologists on the planet, the best medical
researchers on the planet, literally theability to just ask anyone, hey,
you want to come work with theNFL on this, everyone from Harvard to

(03:12):
Yale to Stanford will shake their headsyes, you know, vigorously and be
like, yeah, we want tocome work on this. Because if you're
doing concussion research, the NFL isa diamond mind. It is everything you
need. Like, you don't wantto work with like a inner city boxing
program to do concussion research. Youdon't want to work with Dartmouth, which
famously like worked with concussion protocols andin helmet manufacturers. You want to work

(03:37):
with the NFL. That is whoyou want to work with. And the
NFL consistently looks like it's doing somethingand then issues like to a tongue of
viola happen and you realize, oh, they haven't really been doing anything for
the last decade. They just whenthese things happen quickly, you know,

(03:58):
stir up some dust so it lookslike activity, and then they'll drop some
things every once in a while.But again, if you're doing it this
quickly, now, why couldn't itbe done six months, six weeks,
six years ago. It's just moreof the same when it comes to the
NFL not able to actually take anysteps to improve the game that doesn't involve

(04:23):
improving their bottom line. Yeah,it's really well said. It's just it's
the same reaction they have to everythinglike you shoddy. It's like like exactly
like you said. They it's apr crisis that moves them to make these
decisions. It's not about doing theright thing or protecting player safety or even
just common sense. They just letit go and let it go and let

(04:45):
it go. And this is whyit goes every time we have a major
issue with the NFL, until itgets so big that they can't ignore it
or there's too much outcry from thegeneral public, and then all of a
sudden fail like oh, ray Riceis suspended indefinitely. Oh, now,
all of a sudden, we havean actual concussion protocol that makes sense,
like like you said, you couldhave done this so long ago. It's

(05:06):
not as though new research just cameout this week that says like, oh
wow, guys, guess what evenif he has some cognitive function like he
might still have a concussion like this, Oh what a wonderful quincides. This
isn't new it's not new information,and like it really struggle with the NFL

(05:29):
sort of using the excuse that like, well, if he can count to
five, then we don't really careif he like approaches the wrong huddle or
goes to the wrong sideline because technicallyhe passed a concussion protocol test. Like
I had a concussion, and Ihad I had perfect like cognitive functions like

(05:49):
believe me, I was tested overand over and over again after it happened,
and I could count, I couldremember everything they asked me to remember.
I walk a straight line, likeno problem. But I was like,
very clearly can coust So just becauseyou can meet the technical requirements or

(06:11):
the way the NFL used to handleit, well, he got one thing
right, he's good. He's good. That thing says not concust so we're
going to ignore the other seventeen thingsthat's say he probably is. Also,
I just think there's a common senseelement to it. I mean, I
know Mike Nathaniel gave a very convincingspeech about it. Well, I can't
go how bad does it look ifI go against the medical personnel, which

(06:31):
is a valid point. But alsoyou can be the guy who says,
no, I'm looking out for myplayer's safety, and I'm not going to
do that because this guy is clearlycan cost even if whatever baseline testing we're
currently using says and technically you canstick him back out there. That's actually
the funny part for me. Notfunny, but you know, like the
contradiction. Mike Daniel is still comingout swinging and has been the entire tech.

(06:57):
Of course, I take player safetyseriously. No, he was can
cost like, no, no,no, we we passed all the tests.
Then they're all just said it's okay. Um, you know he wasn't
he didn't have a head hit.He said he hurt his back, like
if if the players saying it,and then you're all just to stay in
it, like you know, I'vegot to listen. Of course, I've
never about you know, really indignantthat we all think an obvious concussion has

(07:19):
been missed and there's no way toit should have been playing that Thursday night,
you know. Um, And thisis why it's so important that the
concussion protocol has to work as designed. This is what I said, you
know, on on the last week'sbig show after the Thursday and I think,
which is this is why the decisionhas to be taken out of his

(07:41):
hands. This is when the decisionhas to be taken out of the player's
hands. Both the player and thecoach have millions of dollars and their whole
career riding on continuing to play likethey are both heavily heavily incentivized to put
him back out there as long asthere's nothing preventing him from putting from putting
him back out there. And that'swhy the concussion protocol has to work as

(08:07):
designed. And I think one ofthe things that's tough is, you know,
fan outrage is driving this, butalso fans are heavily incentivized to see
the player back off the field.Fans want to see two a tongue maloa
out there. You know. TheDolphins fans want to see their team putting
up forty burgers on potential number one, number two AFC seeds winning football games,

(08:33):
extending undefeated streaks, challenging for thedivision title, maybe conference title.
That's they want to see. Andso nobody wants to see what they saw
Artua that Thursday night. No onewants to see the fencing response. No
one wants to see the super SloMoof his nervous system recoiling in shock.
But also nobody wants to hear,well, he passed the concussion protocol and

(08:58):
he says it's his back. Butyou know, those pencil neck nerds somewhere
said, uh, like not agood idea, And I think, shouting
to your point about ten years ago, I think there's been backsliding because it's
frustrating for fans to sit and watchthe injury report Wednesday Thursday and then go,

(09:22):
okay, okay, as long ashe passes the protocol Friday, we're
all good. Friday, Nope outah man uh you know, the star
quarterback when is out and we're manlike my fantasy team and like blab.
You know, nobody's sitting around applotting, going congratulations, you did the right

(09:43):
thing when they pulled these guys out. And I think too, you know,
I go back to you know,players typically will say things along lines
like the more enlightened players will talkabout the pressure that they feel, both
internally and externally to get back onthe field. And you know, Golden
Tate recently did a thing for myold haunts of the thirty third team.

(10:03):
You know that just the pressure hewould feel, regardless of the injury,
but especially an unseen one to getback on the field. And again,
I know it's it's apples to orangesbecause I'm not coaching in the NFL,
but I have two players right nowin concussion protocol and one of them made
it to day five, just likeyou're talking about. And he not only
like got to the step where hey, we need to see you like in

(10:26):
some contact, but he did sostrapping on like the space helmet that is
the fifteen hundred dollars you know,VISs helmet that's you know, it looks
like a spaceship or like you know, the New Soldier field and you strap
it onto your head. And hehit one guy once and said nope,
don't feel right and pulled himself out. And that's what you're supposed to do.

(10:50):
And the pressure that he must havefelt, you know, from teammates
who are looking to get him back, to him wanting to be back,
from a trader who's you know,you know, absolutely focused on his medical
stability, but also wants to gethim back in the field. Coaches want
him back in the field. He'sa good football player. One hit one

(11:11):
guy and he said, Nope,doesn't feel right like things. The things
are off, and so it issuper important that we look at a guy
like a mike L Daniel who's yes, new to this, he's never had
to make these decisions before. Buthe has to feel empowered above all of

(11:31):
this to do what he feels isright, not what he feels. Stephen
Ross wants not what he feels asbest for to a ton of viola,
now what he feels as best forthe Miami Dolphins, because all of those
things aren't necessarily the right thing.Because two is gonna want to play through
the injury. Two is gonna wantto show that he's a big man,

(11:52):
that he's a tough guy. That'sjust the natural response. The Dolphins are
gonna want him back in the startinglineup. He is their best chance to
win in football games. Stephen Rosswants his star player on the field,
you have to ignore all of thatand do what is right. And if
that means also contradicting a medical professionalwho's employed by the team, whose job

(12:16):
is still to put a player backon the field, you know this is
again I'm apples to oranges, Buta medical professional that works for an NFL
team will have no qualms about shootingyour knee up with tour at all to
put you back on the field,even though every single medical opinion outside the
NFL says that has long term degenerativeeffects on your knee. It is not

(12:39):
a good thing for you. Nodoctor in their right mind would do that
outside of the constructs of the NFLsystem or the college football system. There's
no need to rush back from aknee injury and potentially not be able to
walk ten years later unless you aretrying to get a guy back in a
football field. This is that.This is the neurological version of that.

(13:03):
There's no reason to ignore the veryclear cut motor response symptoms and call it
a back injury unless you are hopingto get that player back in the field
sooner. Otherwise, every other doctorand every other context on the face of
this earth would say you know what, Let's go get an MRI with you.
Let's go let's go figure this oneout. Let's put you through some

(13:24):
extensive tests to make sure it's notneurological because we can't see that it's not
a bone sticking out of your armthat we can test and bailing that,
we are going to make absolutely surethat we're not putting your brain at risk.
Well, and I think this iswhy it's the same problem we have
with like domestic violence policies in theNFL, is we have to change the
value system instead of just trying torelitigate it every time it happens. So

(13:48):
we'll have a new rule. Buteverybody's still trying to get away with one.
Everybody still feels compelled to say they'refine, to say their player is
fine, because the value system hasto change. Because deep down, everybody
out there, the league most ofall, is still saying like, suck
it up, get out there,like you're fine, You're fine, right,
son, Sure you are. Likeit's until we actually change the value

(14:09):
system and that we all collectively decideand then force the lad to go along
with us and say, hey,this isn't okay, We're not okay.
With this, then it's just goingto continue to be a series of constructs
put into place which are supposed toobfiscate what's really going on here. And
like, see we're doing something,we're taking action capitalty capital, a look

(14:31):
at us doing what we're supposed todo, but they're not actually changing the
value system. And this is whyI feel too. I feel from Mike
n Daniel too, because like what'she supposed to do, Like he has,
as you pointed out, Shotti alot riding on this, and also
like this is what we're trying todo, Like all athletes are trying to
do this, even at a lowerlevel, even if it's not concussion related.

(14:52):
Like I can certainly tell you thatas a high school and college athlete,
I never once in my entire sportscareer said I can't go. Ever,
you need somebody else to take youout, like even when you are
not one hundred percent. And thisis track we're not talking about concussions,
right, but like you're never goingto say, regardless of what the injury

(15:16):
is, no, I cannot go. It's the value system says you have
to suck it up and somebody elseneeds to remove you from the action.
That's the way that it should work. Unless we change that entire component of
the value system too, which Idon't think it's going to happen. But
until we start prioritizing people's safety andtrusting these guys to say I can't go
and not labeling them soft or whatever, or labeling the coach, it's like,

(15:39):
oh, well, that was awaste if you didn't send them out
there because the doctor setting was fine. Like if you don't change the value
system, you can make every rulechange in the world, and the spirit
of the laft as it, we'restill not part of the equation. It's
really not going to prevent this fromhappening. And as depressing as it is
to think, okay, well,all we have to do is change the

(16:00):
attitudes of athletes, coaches, andtrainers to all prioritize long term player health
over short term results, I willpoint out that it's it has happened,
and it's been happening. You know, the pro football of right now is

(16:21):
not the pro football of the oughtsor the nineties, which was not the
pro football of the seventies or thesixties, which is damn sure not the
pro football the thirties and the fortiesand the fifties. You go go watch
video. It's all out there onlineof what NFL football looked like decades ago

(16:41):
and what was okay and what isnot okay now and the rules about you
know, not just contact and helmet, the helmet and those sorts of things,
but you know, just like straightout injurious but like like injuring people
on purpose used to be part ofthe gig. You know, taking guys
off the field on stretchers used tohappen all of the time. There's this

(17:04):
game hands evolved for player safety becauseultimately, people want to see great athletes
performing, and they don't want tosee great athletes leaving the game early,
retiring, forced out, forced outof the game, forced out of football.
They don't want to see a leaguefull of backups going into the playoffs.
They don't want to see just likeout and out violence anymore. And

(17:26):
I think that's for the good,and I think it's going to continue to
be for the good, even ifit's it's little victories like this over the
long run and working to prevent backsliding, because those interests will always be there
in terms of money and playing time, for the athletes and the coaches.
All Right, guys, we're gonnapay a little bills. We've got some

(17:47):
some monetary interests of our own.We're gonna take a break. Come back
when I'm talking with Mike Tneer FootballOutsiders, then we'll pick every single game
against the spread and straight up righthere on three and out, your National
NF Podcast. Welcome to three andout, your national NFL podcast, featuring
three sports media pros. It isour midweek big show, and like always,

(18:08):
we have a big guest for you, Mike Tanier of Football Outside.
Is Mike, how you doing today? Doing phenomenal? I spent the last
four hours trying to get NFL plusto load. Uh so it's a typical
Wednesday here here in the NFL media. Have you tried taking it out and
blowing in it. I've tried takingNFL plus app and blowing it and beating

(18:33):
it on the wood shed for likean hour straight. But all I can
do is clean out my cash arun it for ten minutes, clean up
my cache. It's not to thepoint where every quarter it forgets who I
am. So it used to belike every hour forgot who I am?
Now when the second quarter begins afterclean my Internet cache. A great product,
fantastic life change. So let's shoveme into understanding you apparently have not

(19:00):
in any film study this week.Let's jump into the topic de jure of
the NFL. We talked about ita ton on Monday. I'm sure it's
not going anywhere, but two aton of iola. Obviously, you know
he's out for Week five already,which seems like just a tremendous amount of
foresight that they did not have aweek ago, but without the laboring some
of the same points that have beenyou know, repeated both on this show

(19:23):
and not infinitem for a while.Where does this put the Dolphins for this
season? And also, you know, remember twelve months ago who were talking
Aboula was not their quarterback in thefuture. They were doing everything they could
do to get a different quarterback.So does this have some like longer term
implications even though he was putting upMVP numbers before this concussion happened. That's

(19:45):
hard to predict. You know,the Dolphins are this weird wildcard because there's
the overlay of you know, Rossbeing suspended and the tanking stories and the
Brian fluory stories and the schemes withinschemes within schemes. If this was thirty
other NFL teams up put the Commandersin that list, this was thirty other
NFL franchises to be like, no, you know, in two weeks,

(20:06):
we're going to see tongue of Violaback and we're gonna see them continue to
evaluate them, and if he playsthe way he plays, they'll, you
know, start the process towards lookingtowards him being their franchise quarterback. So
the only reason why we're not thinkingthat is because of the way the Dolphins
operate and this sort of level ofshiftiness and unprofessionalism that always seems to come

(20:26):
into their decisions. That's the longterm. The short term is, you
know, a couple of weeks agowhen the season started, I did my
backup quarterback readings and number one backupquarterback in the NFL was Teddy Bridge Warner
and we're going to see him,and number two was Garoppolo and we saw
him on Monday night. You know, the way this team, if the
Dolphins are the team they claim tobe, they should be able to beat
the Jets with Teddy Bridge Warner.That gets from the four and wine.

(20:48):
We're probably in a situation where inWeekly six, Week seven we see tongue
of viola. Again, Week sevensthe Stealers. So again, if we
say we're giving to a month offthat idea at this point after what we
saw, you got the Steelers comingup. That's another potential win. Teddy
Bridgewater should be able to get thisteam to five to two in the short
term and then we can start talkingabout the return of two. The Jacksonville

(21:11):
Jaguars. We've been talking about them. Of course, you go look at
football Outsiders and check DVOA. Youknow they are up there. Jaguars I
think are about sixth in DVOA atthis point and in a twelfth and a
lot of other numbers kind of backup them being basically for real, but
even more defensively than offensively. Whatdo you think of this team? Well,

(21:34):
one of the things that's happening withthe DVOA is they're still high,
but they're falling. Of course,they're falling after a loss against the Eagles,
a lot of turnovers, et ceteraalong the way. But there are
things kind of working into the datanow as we get later into the season
that are pointing against the Jaguars beingthat high playoff top ten team. We're

(21:55):
not saying they're not developing or betterthan last year. We're saying that where
they were number there were number twoin DVOA in weeks ray and since then
we've seen some things. One ofthe things that happened is that opponent adjustments
have come into play along the way. So the recognition that the Colts offense
like shutting out the Colts. Anyshutout is good, but that was a
very bad offense. So you playthat team and you get that win,

(22:15):
but it begins to be north alittle bit in the data, so they're
coming down a little bit some ofthe heliums coming out of what they do.
There's some other statistics along the waythat I was looking at, like
their number one in an average startingfuel position, Like they're getting the ball
down the field further than everybody else. That's the sort of thing that balances
out during the season. A lotof things that are going to bring them

(22:37):
back to the pack. That said, I think the Jaguars are still the
best team in the IFC South.You know that's not a high bar,
but that's the first bar they needto clear. I'm excited about Trevor Lawrence's
development, and there's enough going onthere to feel like the rebuilding plan is
going according to plan. I didnot come into this season expecting to care

(22:59):
about ask so many questions about GenoSmith. But here we are. He's
the NFC Offensive Player of the Week, which sounds like attentence builds straight out
of like a Stephen King novel.And is it just playing the Lions defense
or is Geno Smith cooking with gasover in Seattle? You know, it's

(23:22):
not just playing with the Lions defense, but a lot of it was playing
with the Lions defense. If youlook at their back seven in that game,
there were just a lot of opportunities, a lot of our open receivers.
Along the way, I've been goingthrough and sifting through the Geno Smith
data looking for looking for the smokinggun, looking for the thing that says,
Aha, this is what they're doing. He's not dinking and dunking that

(23:45):
much. He's not just taking advantageof playing with the lead a lot,
because you know, they were playingfrom behind in a couple of their games
significantly. So right now he's playingvery good football. I think he's been
helped by some of his opponents,not the forty nine ers, but some
of the other the ones. He'sbeen helped by a scheme that's very clever.
If you see what they're doing withtheir tight ends, two and three
tight ends, they're creating open opportunitiesin the middle of the field. But

(24:07):
he's playing wow sustainably well. He'snot going to complete seventy seven point four
percent of his passes for the year. It's going to fade a little bit.
This is usually the time of yearwhen defenses get the book on a
quarterback they're not familiar with. They'vegotten out four games of film, they've
seen them throw on third and long, third and medium. They know what

(24:29):
the players are going to be alittle bit. They can counter attack.
But right now, credit to GenoSmith, this is a guy I was
ready to bury in twenty thirteen,twenty fourteen, and he's turned himself into
one of those capable veterans. SoI think it is a very capable veteran
backup and spot starter, not somebodywe're still gonna be talking about December.
Mike. I want to stay therebecause, as you know, I've been

(24:52):
covering the league at a national levelfor like a decade, But I started
off with the Lions and I'm stilldeep in the Lions Twitter streets as it
were. And as I remarked yesterday, it's been wild to see Aaron Glenn
go from uh, you know,a couple of months ago it was like,
maybe we should promote him to cohead coach so he doesn't leave,

(25:12):
and now it's maybe we should firehim at the buye um and then looking
at what you know Smith was ableto do to that defense. You know,
for me, I'm like, all, hey, yeah, there's bones
to pick with what Aaron Glenn hasdone, But like you know, the
personnel is just not there. WithoutTracy Walker. You have zero safeties who
can cover anybody and zero linebackers whocan cover anybody. So what do you

(25:37):
want him to do? Right?But but there are still some definitely some
questions to ask about how the Lionsare lining up their defense. In any
time you score forty five points andlose, you have to look at the
other side of the field. Whatdo you think about the Lions defensively,
um and and just in general asa potential improved from number two overall pick

(26:00):
team last year, you know,week two. I was talking to believe.
Mike Peyton and I were talking weektwo and we're talking about Glenn's gone,
he's going to be a head coach, and I think he might be.
I haven't studied schematically in deep,deep detail, you know, watching
that game. You're you know,nobody on the back end can cover except

(26:22):
Accuda a little bit, and Accudaversus Metcalf wasn't the best matchup in the
world. I think was gone fromkind of like just complete bust too.
Oh okay, he's probably a startingcolter cornerback who can cover your your your
number two or whatever. Um,you know, the rookie sugarman Rodriguez,
he's flying around all over the place. He's just one guy. I don't
think he's outstanding in coverage. Ithink he's a hustle guy and he's sort

(26:45):
of alone in that situation. Andyour pass rush is not great. You
know, you have three sacks ofCarson Wentz from Aiden Hutchinson in week two.
I believe Sacond Carson Wentz I don'tthink counts anymore. Um, you
know, and so so so he'sgoing to come around. Obviously, I'm
not going to rip this this youngman but like that sort of oh,
we've got the defensive rookie of theyear, end player of the year,

(27:07):
that's not happening. This is stilla week overall roster. It still is
after two seasons, and that fallson the entire current administration, including he
who cannot be criticized, Dan Campbell. Okay, the offense played well,
but the offense gave up a picksix as well. I was playing from
behind along the way. I guessthe defense that also couldn't cover anybody.
This is a better team than itwas last year. But going from two

(27:30):
to if the players to go fromtwo and fifteen to four and thirteen to
six, and if that's the planis that's too long. That's that's not
sustainable. That's not how teams grow. They need to see some actual improvement
in this Lion's team, not justoh, this week we were this,
and this week we were that,and we're one and three like we normally

(27:51):
are. All right, Mike,I got one more question to ask you,
and Samantha couldn't make it, ofcourse, to the sessions. He's
not asking questions, So I'm goingto ask one for her, which is
this she picked the Cults to representthe AFC in the Super Bowl, and
it was in the context of,uh, you know, not chalk please,
you know, don't just go youknow, bills, but like what

(28:15):
you know, who who who couldmake it? That isn't you know,
the one obvious number one seed Andshe went with the cults, and the
cults have not been making her lookgreat to this point. Is there any
hope? Is there any hope thatFrank Reich and Matt Ryan and company bail
her out? You know, It'sfunny because I feel that most of what
I'm doing these days are cults.Trolling the cults. Super Fans of our

(28:38):
colleagues, like Derek klass and who'sdoes brilliant work at Football Outsiders, was
over the mood that what Matt Ryanis going to do for the cults,
and you know, I was like, I was warning him. It's like
I've been watching Falcons football, alot of Falcons football over the years,
and this guy is just on thedownside, the quick downside of his career,
Like no, no, no,no, no, no, no
no, no, yeah, Ihave to look at how they had their

(28:59):
receivers. Were like, okay,here we are with the Colts and you
know, I'm running about them forFootball Outsiders. It's going to be on
my walkthrough on Thursday. And Ithink they can quote unquote turn things around.
But turn things in Matt round meansgoing from the thirty first or thirty
second offense in the NFL to thetwenty second. I think that's what we're

(29:22):
really talking about here. One ofthe problems with Matt Ryan right now is
opponents are blitzing because they have nofear. They know Ryan will not be
able to escape the blitz. Heavenforbid. They don't have any fear of
the Colts picking up the blitz.And besides Pittman, there's nobody in the
secondary who it's like, oh mygod, if if we lose one men
in the secondary, we're done.We're gonna get picked the plot by you
know, Paris Campbell. That's notwhat opponents are worried about right now.

(29:47):
So they're blitzing. They're getting home. The Cults are a lot more sack
yardage than any other team in theNFL, including the Bengals, including once
in the Commanders, because when Ryangets sacked, it's after like a seven
step drop and it's eight yards deepin the backfield. And that nerves their
offense, so they're going to figurethings out. I think Jonathan Taylor's hurt.

(30:07):
That's another problem. Their defense isfine, there's enough overall talent here
that they're going to improve. Buthow much improvement are you gonna get when
you're already one, two and oneand that's October. This looks like a
six win, seven win team.And that's the worst thing for the Colts
because they need to start over.They need a new quarterback, they need
a new plan. They need tostop this this Geezer of the Year quarterback

(30:30):
plan that Ballard Mars. They needa wake up call, a moment of
clarity for all of this. Andthat's only going to happen if they continue
to be bad, bad, likethey've been for a month. All right,
my vote for geezer that year.Next year. Frank Reich himself,
I want to that's the thing.We're running out of geezers because you say,
oh, let me Kirk Cousins,Well that's a meme. It won't

(30:52):
be Kirk Cousins. We know,we know it won't beat Derek Carr.
So Ryan Fitz coming out that comingout of bruth at Amazon on it out
of the time. Yeah, yeah, yeah, running out tell you you're
out of terrible, terrible solutions there. So what's going to be is probably
Matt Ryan again. But if i'dbe Matt Ryan and and not that route
and Sam are earlier or whoever,it's got to be Matt Ryan and a

(31:12):
real young quarterback of the future.All right, well, Mike, we
appreciate you joining us three and Outand Mike Tineer once again. Where can
people follow your work? You canfind me at Football Outsider, so stop
on buying Football outsiders dot com.I'm all over the site. My ugly
mug is is there as well,and you can follow me on Twitter at

(31:36):
Mike Tineer. That's at Mike heis in tango hey, and is in
Nancy I e er. All right, there he goes Mike Tineer, one
of the best in the business fora long time. Where three Geezers plus
one person who is young and fitand not here at three and Out we
will be right back. We willpick every single game straight up and against

(31:57):
the spread, just like we dodo every single week. Um, three
and out your National NFL podcast.All right, we are back. I'm
three and out your national NFL Podcast, Great stuff from Mike. As always,
it is time to pick the games. We're getting our spreads courtesy of
our friends at pickwatch dot com andpick every single game straight up and against

(32:19):
the spread, just like we alwaysdo. I can't wait. Let's get
to it, all right, Coltsthree and a half point underdogs at the
Denver Broncos. Samantha, I'm sorrywe're kind oft the Colts with Mike a
little bit, but they are.They're getting three and a half at Mile
High. What do you think isgoing to happen? Well, I'll start

(32:43):
by saying I think the Broncos,being outside of the Colts division, you
know, they'll probably be fine,but ending the Colts here because they not
be able to beat anyone in theirown division. But they're doing okay against
gancy Us so far. So Imean, look, both of these teams
have lost their running backs, sothat's I think something to take into consideration,
and we're gonna get you know,guy, I behind against what Latavius

(33:04):
Murray I think got signed by theBroncos this week off of the Saints practice.
But so, all right, thenboth of these teams are lamping.
They're really in trouble. I they'reboth fairly poorly coached, but I don't
know. I just I have ahard time trusting anything with Daniel Hackett does
I don't care if it's at home, I don't care if the culture stumbling.

(33:28):
I'm definitely taking Indianapolis here. That'san easy pick for me, especially
since the end of talk, andespecially since they're Super Bowl pick and you
need them to win this game.That is also true. So just just
we're all confirmed priors here. It'sfine, That's that's what we do here.
Um My thought is exactly literally,I will take everything you said,

(33:51):
but come away with the other conclusionlike in probably because I'm just doing my
priors as well. My thought iswithout that running game, and again I
forgot this last week, the Coltsstill have to lean upon an offensive line
that really doesn't do much and adefensive line that really doesn't do much,

(34:12):
and so you're trying to stop awell versed Broncos rushing attack. That Yeah,
you lost Javonte Williams. He's afantastic young back, but you still
have Latavi's murder. Latavios Murk woulddo it, but I think you know,
Melvin Gordon's still gonna go out there. You've got a handful of guys
that will, you know, throwme and Tie out there, and we'll
both get a couple of yards acarry and be able to matriculate this offense

(34:36):
down the field. If you wentout there, Samantha, you'd rush for
fifty yards a clip because you actuallycan run. My thought is that this
is gonna be a really bad game, but the Broncos winning, Oh yeah,
horrible game. Horrible game, I'mgonna kind of I'm gonna go the
same way. I gotta say theBroncos just because the defense. I don't
see anyway Matt Ryan succeeds against thatsecondary, given every thing that's happened so

(35:00):
far. My knee jerk take Coltsthree and a half at Broncos is to
take that three and a half.But I just don't know how they score
points. Um, I mean unlessthey lose three to zero, which is
a possibility. I'm not seen theGiants eight point underdogs at the Packer starts
getting eight. What do you think, man? I had so much hope

(35:23):
for the Packers last week, andI feel like they let me down and
the Giants attinuted over over, reallyoverachieved compared to what I think they're gonna
do. Um, So I willtake the Packers straight up here, but
I will take the Giants against thespread. They are in the Brian Dable
era, moving past plucky adjacent andstraight into like minor, minor amounts of

(35:50):
pluckiness territory. Like they aren't fullon pluck, but they are like approaching
pluck territory, if we should sayapproaching pluck. That's perfect, guys.
This is the unfl's number one rushingoffense in the Giants against the twentieth ranked
rush defense in Green Bay, whichis interesting. And also I think for

(36:16):
the Giants to have a prayer alsovery necessary because realistically speaking, I mean,
we don't know yet what the dealis with Daniel Jones, whether he
can go, whether he will beat a hundred percent. Well, we
know he's gonna get a hundred percent, but this could be Davis web guys,
that's not great David's numbers. AaronRodgers, however, Aaron Rodgers almost

(36:36):
lost a third string quarterback a weekago. But I just I don't know
about Daniel Jones getting on a plane, flying seven hours and then getting out
there on that angle and playing afootball game, So I think I have
to go Packers here. But Iagree with you, Shandy, I'm going
to take the Giants to cover.I just think that eight is way too
big and there's there's some potential foran upset here for sure. Yeah,

(36:58):
there's nothing in the number that supportsspread anywhere near this Vegan. Of course,
here's probably where I just finally makesme look stupid. But I'm doing
the same thing Shoddy is Packers towin the game, but I'm gonna take
the Giants against the spread. Eatit all up. Steelers. Oh my
goodness, we almost talked about theSteelers. Kenny Pickett gets his starting debut

(37:22):
for the hometown Pittsburgh Steelers, notin the friendly confines of cryptocurrency field,
whatever that's called now, but atBuffalo where the Steelers are fourteen point underdogs.
Samantha, how are you going hereif you were going to do this?
Just like okay, Kenny Pickett intothe flames with the why not just

(37:44):
started at the beginning of the season. Like we all knew that Subisky didn't
have it. The Steelers knew ittoo, So the only defense for not
doing is supposed to protect him andnow you're going to toss him either and
be like here go go right in, George and Park good luck you.
Right. Look, I will saythis, I think Kenny Pigott was not
nearly as bad we could go assome people want to say that he was.

(38:06):
You know, the three interceptions,like two of them, one of
them was off the hands of thereceiver the tight end, I guess they
should say in this case. Andone of them was a hail Mary at
the end of the game, sothat doesn't count. And he just,
I mean, he looked pretty goodand he didn't look scared. You know.
Quinn Williams flattened him at one pointand he just popped right back up
and started talking to Ash. Andyou're thinking, Okay, you know what,

(38:27):
maybe you are ready to go intoBuffalo and have your first start there.
But I don't know, it justdoesn't feel advisable. Guys, I
think they're going to get killed.I don't know about that fourteen though,
Like I just I'm there's no wayfourteen in an NFL game with teams that
aren't horrible, Absolutely not no way. So I'll take the build. But
like I think the Steelers can coverthat no problem. This is a systemic

(38:51):
change for the Steelers because everything goinginto the season was let's let our defense
win football games. Will control theball with our NAGI is rushing attack,
our offensive line should be fine,and just mitigate risk with biscuit. Well,
that didn't work. It kind ofsort of worked like they did mitigate
risk. They're they're pretty good inthe whole like turnover thing. But now

(39:14):
you're throwing a guy out there andyou're asking Kenny Pickett to be aggressive with
the football. You're asking him topush the ball down the field. He
is not the sort of guy tojust throw slant route, slant route,
slant route, swing route. Heis the kind of guy who's going to
try to push the ball down thefield. And because he does that,
he's going to create some extra turnovers. And so not only is this a

(39:34):
see change in how the Steelers wereapproaching the game, they're throwing Kenny pick
It out there for his first actualstart against maybe the worst defense to throw
him out there against. The Billshave nine turnovers. That's tied for third
in the league after the Eagles andRavens, who both have ten. And
when you look at their percentage ofdefensive drives in which the offense turns over

(39:58):
the ball their third at twenty pointfive. That's a fifth of the time
that an opponent has the ball,they turn the ball over. That does
not bode well for Kenny Pickott,who's probably going to go above that.
He's going to slam the over,as they say, and he's probably gonna
turn the ball over more than ahandful of times in this game. Whether

(40:20):
it's it's fumbles with his tiny handsor throwing a pick because he's trying to
push the ball down the field.Whatever it is, the Bills are going
to feast. I agree with thiswith the spread cut at the Samantha made
I'm not going to take them againstthe spread. But I've got to take
the Bills to win straight up,and if the Steelers can stay within fourteen
points, that will actually be avictory. Yeah. I this what this

(40:40):
really is is a pass for me. I'm not betting this game because I
don't I don't believe it's impossible forthe Steelers to lose this by more than
fourteen. They could lose it bya lot more than fourteen, but it's
also not something that I am goingto pick, so I'll think the Bills
straight up. Steelers against the spreadtricky when you have a new quarterback coming
in. Almost anything is on thetable. Chargers two and a half point

(41:06):
favorites going into Cleveland, Shaddy,What do you think of this one?
The Chargers for me wrong last weekbecause they were so injured and banged up.
But then I remember they started asa really, really good roster,
so of course they can beat theTexans even if they've got some of their
really important players dinged up, becausethe Texans are just that bad. I
don't know if Cleveland is just thatbad or not. And I've you know,

(41:30):
two and a half points is basicallya wash, especially on the road,
and so I have to take Clevelandhere. I just do. And
I feel bad about picking against theChargers last week. I feel about picking
against them this week. I havesuper high hopes for this team when they're
fully healthy, but I don't trustthat they're well coached enough to sort of
get through some of these speed bumpsagainst better teams. And Jacobi Prissette has

(41:52):
impressed me in all season. Allyeah, I agree. I think this
is one of those games where ifI'm just making straight up picks versus what
a king at a spread, Imight do something different. And like the
Chargers, I mean, banged upas they are, that's the number one
passing the offense by yards per gamein the entire NFL. But their defense
is giving up twenty seven points agame, and the Browns haven't been too

(42:13):
shabby in terms of being able toput points on the board. And then
these two teams met a year ago, a little less than a year ago
actually, and got into like abarn burner. I think there was like
ninety points scored in that game orsomething ridiculous like that, and it was
kind of a who has the balllast. I don't know that that's what
we're going to see this time,but yeah, I mean, I know

(42:34):
that the Cleveland coaching staff was criticizedvery heavily after the loss against Atlanta a
week ago, but I have greaterconcerns about the Chargers coaching staff at this
point. And Prosted has shown outrelatively well, in fact, I think
better than anybody thought that he would. And I'm certainly not saying he's better
than Justin Herbert. Of course he'snut, but I don't love this for
the Chargers, especially with this gamebeing in Cleveland. So I'll go ahead

(42:58):
and take Browns. Yeah, Idon't like any of this necessarily, but
I just so far the Browns havefound a way to underwhelm me every single
week. I don't love it,but I will take the Chargers and lay
the two and a half on theroad. Bears getting seven in Minnesota,

(43:20):
there's seven point underdogs, Samantha,who do you like here? The Vikings?
For sure, the Bears are abad football team, and the Vikings
are the same like baseline the gaveragefootball team that they pretty much always are,
which puts them in the clear onthis. But you know, I'm
gonna take the Bears to cover onthis one because I don't know, I

(43:42):
don't love the seven. I feellike Kirk Cousins and company tend to play
down TV competition sometimes, so theBears have been a little I mean,
we're gonna this is the opposite ofwhat you were saying earlier, Shotty.
They're not too flucky adjacent yet,but they're like lucky signs of to put
it, signs of fus So allat the Bears stop have a little bit

(44:04):
here. I'm feeling the opposite onthis one. I feel, yes,
the Bears have overplayed their skier,they've overruned their skis a little bit like
I think they're they're yes, they'veshown some early signs of life, and
I've done nothing but praises coaching staff. But there's also a moment in which
you run up into a team likethe Vikings that does just have so much

(44:27):
more talent and you realize that youare out ahead of your skis and you
fall flat on your face. Rightnow, the Bears passing attack has an
expected points of negative twenty, likethey are a terrible passing offense against a
pretty good defense and an offense thatI do think can score against them,
because the one thing that the Vikingshave shown they can do this season is
protect the quarterback, and the Bearsslowly but surely are getting less and less

(44:53):
of a like attacking the quarterback fretlike that was some early signs that we
saw, and or figure out howto protect quarterbacks better against them because they
blit so heavily, or because theyblit so heavily and you got to get
to them. So I think becausethe Vikings have a chance to win this
one. They're going to pour itout. So I'm going to take them

(45:14):
both straight up and against the spreaded. Beating the Bears isn't a great feather
in your cap, but the Vikingswill take it. Yeah, I can
see that the Vikings have kind offound a way to play to their competition,
you know what I mean. They'rethey're they're three and one, but
they could have looked more impressive inpretty much every single game since trashing the

(45:38):
Packers and one, Um, youknow there were opportunities they left on the
field. You snuck out four pointwin against the Lions, three point win
against the Saints. I think wethink these Vikings are more talented than that.
I think the Bears can keep itwithin seven. I'm I'm hesitant.
I'm hesitant because I think are probablygonna make me look down, but I

(46:01):
will also I'll take the Viking straightup with the Bears to cover Lions three
point underdogs at the New England Patriots. Shaw do you yeah? This is
fascinating for a lot of reasons.How do you How do you see this
one play it out both teams?This is entirely about the injury report.

(46:23):
Um, First, just I'm misspokenthe last the Bears blitz infrequently is what
I meant to say. I realizedI caught myself after I have muted.
I think, but think about thisone. I will say that if Mac
Jones plays, I will take NewEngland to win, both straight up and
against the spread. However, whenyou're going out and signing Garrett and Gilbert,

(46:45):
which again goes into my the Patriotsonly sign guys that have been with
them before because Bill Belichick doesn't actuallydo advanced scouting anymore. He just signs
guys that he remembers their name.Um, so that's continues to fit.
But if you're going out and signinghim and Jones is still limited in practice,

(47:06):
that tells me things are probably notgoing to go your way. That
being said, I don't know who'srunning the ball for Detroit besides Jamal Williams,
and I don't know who's catching theball. And I'm really worried that
Jared Goff is going to fall apartat some point because he's starting to take
a bunch of heat. And Idon't know who's stopping the other team from
doing whatever they want with the ball. So I think this game has a

(47:27):
chance to be like a really lowscoring affair that then explodes because neither team
is wouldn't be able to sustain theirdefense very long, much like it was
last week for the Lions. SoI'm going to tentatively, tentatively pick New
England both straight up and against thespread, because I think mac Jones does
end up playing, but I amwilling to be proved wrong, and if

(47:47):
it comes out on Saturday or Sundaythat he's not playing, that swaps my
pick to the Lions. Yeah,I'm right there with you on how this
is going to go. I'm envisioningsomething in which ten points are scored in
the first half of this game infour he points are scored in the second
half of this game based on whatwe've seen out of these defenses. And
while I gotta give some credit toNew England for kind of the way they
hung in a week ago, Ialso think some of that has to do

(48:09):
with the fact that I've also adamantlybeen kind of down on Green Bay because
they are not nearly as good aspeople would like to think that they are.
But yeah, I'm with you.My entire pick is contingent on whether
mac Jones takes the field or not. If he does, I'm taking the
Patriots. I felt pretty good aboutthat. If he doesn't, then this
gets weird and interesting because like,okay, so you're dragging guys in off

(48:32):
the street basically to play quarterback andall the Detroit defense has not been great.
Jared Goff, you know, wouldturn back into a pumpkin. Probably
not going to happen this week,guys, I'm knocking on wood as I'm
saying that. But yeah, withoutMacdones, I'm going to take the Lions
here. Absolutely, I'm going totake the Lions. But with Macdones,

(48:52):
forget it. I'm definitely going todoing fun. Yeah, I'm in the
same boat here, I think.Okay, years ago, at five to
thirty eight, I did a studyon the backup bounce kind of a thing,
and it was it was tough todial in because defining who's a starter
and who's a backup is tricky,especially when you get situations like this or

(49:14):
you go, okay, mister Trubiskyis the Steelers starter until he isn't.
Okay, So so we know KennyPickett is like quote unquote the real starter,
and then like what if Kenny Pickettgets hurt and Mitchell Trubisky comes in.
Is that is that the backup comingin? Or is that the what
is? So that that was toughto do, But basically what I found

(49:35):
was in accordance with kind of theeyeball test, which is when Bailey Zappy
comes off the bench and you go, what is we didn't even know what
Brian Hoyer was gonna do, Wehave no idea Zappy's gonna do, comes
in and tosses it around a littlebit and oh, okay, like better
than you thought, you know,And then you get a week to prepare

(49:55):
and a little bit of film,and suddenly your backup has to go out
execute a week long game plan againstthe team that's had to prepare for them.
They generally do much much worse intheir first full start after their first
backup appearance. So agree all around. If this is Zappie or Hoyer,

(50:15):
this is you know, this isAlliance win and certainly easily to cover.
If it's Mac Jones, this isthis is a tough spot for Alliance.
Team that cannot stop anybody, cannotget anybody off the field. For all
the money in the world, Seahawksfive and a half point underdogs at the

(50:37):
New Orleans Saints, and I mightput all the money in the world on
the Seahawks. I don't know,Samantha, who you got. Oh my
gosh, this feels like a gift. I was sitting here thinking this was
going to look really different and going, Okay, I don't know what to
do here, but five point underdogsfor the Seahawks. Will give me the
Seahawks, man, give me,give me fully plucky, risky, even

(51:00):
Gino Smith and the Seattle Seahawks againstan incredibly underwhelming Saints team. Wow,
okay, thank you Vegas. Yeah. My initial thought on this one is
that the Saints, kind of likeI said last week, do have a
slightly better defense than people expect theirtheir top ten against the past. But

(51:21):
Gino Smith and the Seahawks offense havegone against some of those top teams against
the past recently and done really wellagainst them. They're not going to have
numbers like they had against the DetroitLions. But if you can have numbers
like you had against the Broncos earlierin this season, who as bad as
they look offensively, are still betterthan the Saints offensively, at least like

(51:42):
schematically and in the way they approachedthe game. I think the Seahawks win
this one, and I think theywin it easily. Yeah, I already
said I. I just had togo back and check the spread to make
sure I transcribed it right for pickwatchdot Com, because yes, please absolute
leaked Dolphins three point favorites at theNew York Jets. Obviously, as we

(52:05):
said to it, will not beplaying in this one. Teddy Bridgewater shatty.
Who do you got? Jats?Jets, Jets, Jets. The
Jets kind of have that like midnineties Terrible Steelers team swagger to them,
where like, you know, they'renot that good offensively, but they make

(52:27):
one or two offensive plays a game, and their defense is just kind of
smothering. Not great, but smothering, and if you give them an inch,
they're going to take a mile.And because of that, I think
the Jets win this one. Youknow, obviously, if two was in
it, this is different. Ithink Teddy Bridgewater has been very good in
backup for Tua, but that doesn'tchange the fact I think the Jets win

(52:50):
this one. Yeah, I dotoo. I'm surprising myself kind of by
saying this, but with two outit's a completely different thing. No disrespect
to Teddy Bridgewater, but he's nottoo They're not running the same game.
I also think that teams, youknow, there's a weird sort of negative
bounce. I think that happens whenyou're in a position like the Dolphins are

(53:12):
in right now. Sometimes in birdsthat he produced as weird victories, and
sometimes it sends things in the otherdirection, which I think is kind of
where the Dolphins are at right now. And the Jets have been sort of
like that annoying little brother that justwon't go away and you just can't get
rid of him. He always findsyou no matter where you go, no
matter how much you hide. Soyeah, I mean, I think I'll
take the Jets here. I amgoing to take the Dolphins. I like

(53:35):
the Jets. I like Wilson comingback in them and then playing plucky.
I like the shoots, the greenshoots, a potential someday pluckiness that I'm
seeing. But I think the Dolphinsare a better team, better coached,
and I like Teddy Bridgewater quite abit. As as Mike said in the
interview, you know, he's probablythe best backup quarterback or close to it.

(53:57):
In the NFL and give Michael Danein a week to draw some stuff
up. He's gonna be fine.Dolphins gonna be fine. They're gonna win
this one. Falcons eight and ahalf point underdogs at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Samantha, how do you see thisone? I don't think the Bucks
didn't have any trouble dispatching the Falconshere. Um Tom's going to get a
divorce and the Falcons still won't beable to beat him no matter what.

(54:21):
But I don't like that eight anda half and the Falcons may who had
quitted themselves pretty well at least interms of being able to put points on
the board. So I think I'mgonna take Falcons against the spread. The
Buccaneers continue to both get healthier butthen also have random parts of them backslide.
You know, Rebew Jones went outin the second half of last week's
game. Does he come back fora quote unquote revenge game here against his

(54:44):
former team, which isn't really revenge. He chose to leave, he didn't
want to stay. But I agree. I think the Buccaneers will continue to
struggle against the NFL's best, especiallythose in the over in the AFC,
but within their own division, theyare going to continue to play volleyball.
I will take them both straight upand against the spread. Here. I'm

(55:05):
with Samantha. I think the Buckswin this game for sure. Half a
huge number for a team that's playedeverybody close. Titans two and a half
point favorites at the Washington Commanders.Gross, I don't I don't want to
watch this game, shoddy. Howdo you think it's gonna go the Titans

(55:30):
all the way? Uh? Youknow, as we've said in recent weeks,
second Carson Wentz does not really count, but it does count to help
you win football games. Like wewill have two or three players who are
all of a sudden like NFL superstarsfor the next week because they do so
good against the Commanders. Titans winthis one easily. Yeah, the Commanders
are really really bad guys, Likeif Tennessee is like boring and underwhelming,

(55:53):
like they can still put a competentfootball game together, and we haven't seen
that out of the Commanders all seasonalong. They're actually in the running for
like bottom of the heap, andthe Titans, as much as they have
not been exciting or fun and totallywith Eata. I hope I don't have
to watch any of this game.I hope I don't even see highlights of
it. But yeah, this isno doubt for the Titans. I think
the only reason that spread is eventhat tight is because they tend to play

(56:15):
in low scoring, tight games evenwhen they're in control the entire way through.
Yeah, can we get a reduxof the like Carson Wentz, like
like late winner magic Johan Dotson catchesthe go ahead touchdown that makes it thirteen
ten, or even in terms ofthe spread here, you know, fourteen

(56:38):
thirteen? Sure I can. Ican see a universe where that happens,
but there's nothing that supports that inthe data that you know to be like,
yeah, cool, the smart playis the Commanders here. I'm thinking
the Titans laying the two and ahalf, not feeling bad about it.
Texans plus seven at Jaguars oooh,I have thoughts, Samantha, what are

(57:01):
your thoughts? I Jaguars? Yeah, for sure, they've looked great so
far this season, a little bituntested, but look pretzy darn good.
However, I am not a fanof that seven points. Houston's been kind
of like sneaky competent. So Idon't like that at all, especially within
the division. So I'll go aheadand take the Jaguars to win, but

(57:22):
I like the Texans to cover.I'm right there with you, say,
Jaguars to win, Texans to cover. I think games like this are where
Doug ep earns his money because theJaguars have enough talent to beat good teams,

(57:43):
and you can get up against goodteams, but it's it's really hard
actually to get a young, aggressiveteam to feel like going over and beating
the Texans is important. And ifyou can do that, if you can
not only win, but if youcan cover the spread here, which again
enough taking them to do so,but but if you can win and cover
the spread, that tells me somethingabout your team sort of getting to that

(58:06):
next step, getting to that nextlevel. But if you played down to
competition, as so many teams inthe NFL tend to do, um,
it kind of proves that maybe you'reyou're not quite broken out of where you're
at. Yeah, this one isfascinating. Ill looking at this a couple
of different ways because my I'm withSamantha. Generally the Texans have played teams
tight. They are two one andone against the spread through four games,

(58:30):
which they're pretty consistently overperforming where theline has been set, and it's it's
it's early for my numbers, right, Like four weeks of data is enough
to look at some things like wetalked about with with my taineer. But
you know, the numbers say thisis should be bigger than seven. I
think I think it can be close, but I'm gonna I'm gonna all that

(58:52):
is a long way of saying I'mgonna be with you guys here. I
do think the Jaguars are going tocover. It will be tight. I'll
be flop sweating in the full way. But I'll think the Jaguar straight up
and against the spread, especially becauseit has been better at home versus on
the road. Forty nine ers minussix and a half at the Carolina Panthers,

(59:15):
I might we might have circled thisas a potentially pretty good game after
a week or two. Now notso much. Shaddy, how do you
see this one playing out? I'mgonna take the forty nine ers straight up
and against the bread. I wantto love the Panthers so much. And
Baker is just not what he waswhen he was at his best, he's

(59:37):
at he's what he was when hewas at his worst, when he was
injured, when he was playing throughsome things he shouldn't have been playing with
through, And that receiving corps,which so often overachieved with guys like Sam
Darnold, doesn't seem to be doingso for And maybe it's just a chemistry
thing, or maybe it's they werenever that good and they only put up

(59:58):
like good numbers against bad guy addition, whatever it was, you know,
if guys like Robbie Anderson and DjMoore cannot consistently contribute, it really doesn't
matter who your quarterback is. Orit could be the flip side. Is
he just that bad? Is hejust that out of the loop from a
chemistry perspective and not able to geton board that he can't even replicate what

(01:00:19):
Teddy Bridgewater was able to do withthis receiving corpse. So I struggle to
sort of see the forest for thetrees when it comes to the Panthers,
I want them to be good,but they're going against the team that they
want to be. They're going againsta forty Niners team that has built exactly
like Matt Rule is trying to buildthis Panther's team, but they've actually been
there, they've succeeded, and they'regoing to embarrass the Panthers in this one.

(01:00:43):
That forty nine Ers defense is justgoing to eat the Panthers offense alive.
I think this is going to bereally ugly and painful. And as
somebody who's very investing sort of theBaker Mayfield revenge tour and really wanted him
to do, well, it's justthat's not what it looks like right now.
And some of the that's on Baker, and some of it is on
the way that the receivers have functionedthere, and a lot of it's on

(01:01:04):
Matt Rule, who I just thinkis really not a very good coach.
The offensive side of the ball hasnot looked good. But Shutty, I
think he nailed it when he saidthis is the Carolina is that they want
to be the forty nine ers.That's the goal, right, except that
they're nowhere near that. So yeah, this is the forty nine Ers all
the way, no doubt. Yep. The same boat for me taking the

(01:01:27):
forty nine ers and moving on Cowboysplus five and a half at the Rams.
Samantha, you like the Cowboys.This five and a half poet underdouts
here, I do. I likethat a lot. I am very skeptical
of the Rams. The Rams.This matchup makes me nervous. I think
we pretty much know what Dallas isgoing to do, but it's pretty much
impossible at this point of the bigboat the Rams will do. They might

(01:01:49):
look fantastic, they might look horrifyinglybad. They throw out last week's game
against San Francisco because I think theforty nine ers just kind of have their
number, But I I don't loveit. I'm not confident with Dallas pool
in this game, but do youthink that they can cover right there with
you? Will take the Rams straightup Cowboys against the spread. I am

(01:02:12):
still waiting to see signs of lifefrom the Rams offense, and I don't
think that this is going to bethe one where they do. Because the
Cowboys snakily have one of the bestpassing defenses in the league. They're right
up there with the Eagles, They'reright up there with the Broncos, They're
right up there with the Saints,who I mentioned earlier, and the Bears.
And so I don't think that MatthewStafford against a really good pass.

(01:02:37):
Rush is going to have a reallygood day, because he has not had
a really good day yet this season. They can always surprise. They have
enough talent. They absolutely can goout there. I don't think the Cowboys
have anyone who can really cover CooperCup, not that most people in the
NFL do. That. Being said, you actually have to go out on
offense too, and that Rams defenseis really good and as good as Cooper
Rush has been, as good asthat Cowboys rushing it has been, I

(01:03:00):
do not think they have enough tobeat the Rams. I do think they
have enough to keep a close shatty. My brain got all twisted around.
You said the correct thing, whichis the Cowboys don't have anyone who can
cover Cooper Cup. And my brainstill thought that the team opposing Cooper Rush

(01:03:20):
does not have anyone who can coverhim. Uh, not that anyone else
in the NFL does either. Atall I can think about is no one
can cover Cooper Rush. Like he'sjust out there just slashing through defenses.
No one, no one can coverfor Rush. Again, all credit to
him and as the job that he'sdone, um so far as as a

(01:03:43):
backup quarterback, which again, comeon he's a backup. Guys, it's
still tax job. But you guys, you guys have actually talked me into
this. I'll take the Cowboys againstthe spread. I was going to take
the Rams, but to write guysthat the Cowboys pass rush against the Rams
offensive line, it's a terrible matchup. I did think it was funny.
I saw a tweet this morning that'skind of like, oh yeah, like

(01:04:04):
U Sean McVay highlights good play Staffordmade last week. Gives them something to
build on. It like something tobuild on. We're talking about the defending
st right, we're talking about theteam that the team that just won the
Super Bowl. Like that's okay,all right. I mean I get that

(01:04:27):
they're like twenty ninth in the NFLand scoring offense right now, but like,
you know, do they something Jaredgoffs there? Because that makes sense.
Yeah, I can come off withJared Goff's Super Bowl I would buy
that statement. Hey, you knowthat Matthew Stafford had a couple of good
throws last day. You know itgives us something to build on, all
right. Amazing Eagles five point favoritesat the Arizona Cardinals Battle of the Birds

(01:04:55):
here, Shotty, who you got? This is one of those vil schedule
makers love to love to put thema schedule and usually end up not being
a good game. Frankly, fiveand a half points is a pretty big
spread, but still seems like egregiouslyembarrassing for the Eagles because they are a

(01:05:17):
better team than five and a halfpoints. Better than the Cardinals. I
think they easily exactly. I man, the Eagles are The Eagles have the
best roster in the NFL right now, and I don't think it's particularly close,
and the Cardinals are still not figuringthings out. I'm going to take
the Eagles to win this one big, not just against the spread, but

(01:05:39):
big. Yeah. I was allprepared for you to tell me that the
spread was a lot bigger on thisgame, and I was going to be
like, oh, okay, cool, so this is like potential early trap
game, like Eagles win but Cardinalscover. And then you said five and
a half. I was like,Okay, this is just disrespectful and ridiculous.
I will take the Eagles to winto cover all the things. I

(01:06:00):
don't think this is actually going tobe that close. Yeah. See,
this is this is interesting to bebecause you guys are absolutely right, which
is that the Eagles are way,way, way more than five points better
than the Cardinals. In fact,according to my metrics, this spread should
be closer to like seventeen based onhow the two teams have played to this

(01:06:27):
point. But also, the Cardinalsare a team that has uh, you
know, made themselves look worse thanthey are in certain spots. They've you
know, rallied late and gotten someinteresting results. The Cardinals are two and
two against the spread and straight up, which but they're they're o and two
at home and two and o onthe road. So I was trying to

(01:06:48):
figure out why exactly I really wantto take the Cardinals here because I think
they can keep it close. Butall of the math, all of the
numbers, it's just overwhelming, andI think the Eagles are going to do
it. They're gonna win five pointfavorites on the road. It's not this
is not how we gamble, folks, But I just see too much strength

(01:07:08):
Sunday Night Football. Of course,Samantha is a content director for NBC Sports
does work in controlled booth for SundayNight Football, so cannot pick this game
tell you how to bet it.But she can't tell you how she thinks
it's going to go Samantha Bengals plusthree at the Baltimore Ravens Bengals three point

(01:07:30):
underdogs at M and T Bank.How do you think it's going to go?
Oh afc nor in prime time earlyin the season. What could go
wrong? Probably everything. I amdelighted. As the resident kaof Goblin.
Hey, we're all kaff Goblins here, right. It's just the only person
in my office who's excited to seethis game because I think it's gonna be

(01:07:50):
a disaster and it's gonna be wonderfuland I'm gonna get enough to feed my
little goblin soul for weeks off ofthis one. Probably, I am so
excited. Look in terms of thematchup, I have a lot of questions
about both defenses here. I havea lot more questions, I guess about

(01:08:10):
some of the things that are goingon in Baltimore and Bengals underwhelming that kind
of get right game a week ago, and also their defense hasn't been as
bad as people think when you reallystart digging into the numbers. So I'm
liking the Bengals here, especially sincethey're not the favorite. But I can't
officially make a pick. Yeah,the Bengals have one of the more underrated

(01:08:31):
and better defenses in the NFL,specifically the rushing defense, but I don't
necessarily believe that matters against the Ravens. The Ravens do so many unique things
rushing the ball, not just havingLamar Jackson, who's a very unique matchup
threat, but also just the waythey approach the rushing game is so unique
that pass performance doesn't necessarily predict resultsin this one. I have questions about

(01:08:58):
the Bengals offense. That's really theonly unit that I don't understand in this
game. Because the Bengals offense issupposed to be really good, they have
not been. They should be ableto absolutely take advantage of a really terrible
Bengals defense, especially against the longball, still, and I think they
will. I think this is sortof a get right game for Burrow in
this passing offense, but I don'tknow if it's enough. And I think

(01:09:23):
that the scoring that happens is sporadicand so it gets them like seventeen points.
But I think the Bengal or sorry, I think the Ravens are still
better and so I'm going to takethe Ravens to win this one, and
let me just double check my numbers. I will pick the Ravens to win
both straight up and against the spreads. I think it just gets right outside

(01:09:45):
of that three points. Yeah,the three is tricky for me, and
it's it's fascinating because I had theRavens higher than the Bengals coming into the
season. Teams are deceptive too,Like I think of the Ravens as being
a deceptive two and two, likethey're better than that. I think the
Bengals are a deceptive two and twoand that they've disappointed me and how well

(01:10:10):
they've played yet still gotten to twoand two. But this, this line
is about right plus three in Baltimore, you know these That's about how much
these teams are separated by. I'mgonna take the Ravens both straight up and
to cover. I don't feel greatabout it. I think it's going to
be close. It just gets downto that I can't shave a fine enough

(01:10:32):
margin to say, oh, yeah, this is gonna be you know,
the Ravens are gonna keep this withintwo. You know, if it was
three and a half, sure itwas four. You know that kind of
thing but I at three even thishonestly just screams pushed to me. But
I'll take the Ravens at home andin a game that they need, both
teams really kind of need if theywant to get where they want to go

(01:10:54):
at the end of this season.Raiders seven point underdogs the Kansas City Chiefs
Monday night Football. Very interesting matchup, Shaddy, Who do you like?
I'm tempted to take the Ravens againstthe spread here. It's just it's just

(01:11:14):
so big, Like, I don'tthink there's seven points worse than the Chiefs,
but it being played at Arrowhead makesme think it sneaks outside of that.
This is what I'm probably gonna endup turning off in the fourth quarter.
That's my prediction, my predictions.I'm turning this game off before it
ends because I think the Chiefs winthis one bolt straight up and against the

(01:11:36):
spread. If you put this onein Las Vegas, I might go the
other way. But the Chiefs arejust a really good team right now,
and I think the Ravens are stilltruck or sorry, the Raiders are still
trying to fire out exactly what theyare. Yeah, I completely agree with
you. I this is one ofthose games where, unless you just want
to watch Catahomes put on a clinic, you're probably carnying us up in the

(01:11:56):
third quarter. I know I willbe because I think it's going to get
I don't want to say totally outof hand, but to the point where
we will comfortably know by that pointwho's winning game. It is going to
be the Chiefs. I don't thinkit will be that close. I yeah,
maybe we look at this a littlebit differently if it's in Vegas,
but in Arrowhead. Yeah, Iwill take the Chiefs points all that for
sure. Yeah, this is thisis kind of my classic. I will

(01:12:21):
take the Raiders to cover in thefirst half, maybe first quarter, yes,
yeah, like you're definitely here inyour live betting lines. I love
the Raiders to come out and makepeople go, oh, maybe maybe the
Raiders are going to make this competitive, and then the Chiefs to just go

(01:12:42):
ahead and quote race. So Idon't think it's going to be anywhere to
your seven points at the end ofthis, which is tough for the Raiders
because I think they have a talentedand interesting team, but not talented enough
or interested interesting enough to consistently wingames in the AFC with to consistently win
games in the AFC West, Guys, Mike Tineer has been consistently awesome for

(01:13:05):
us over the two plus years we'vebeen doing this. We're into our third
season. At the quarter poll.Actually now quarter poll is somewhere. I
think that was Tuesday, Tuesday afternoon. With the new schedule, throw an
extra weekend there, it's tough toits tough to pick exactly where that is,
but we're rounding into week five.I'm super excited for it, super

(01:13:28):
excited to talk with you guys.On Monday morning, we had some folks
jump in our Twitter spaces eight o'clockEastern time. We usually send out the
link on Sunday afternoon on our Twitterfeed at three out Pod. Of course,
if you're not subscribed to like whatyou heard from Mike Tineer from USS
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(01:13:51):
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mornings Twitter Spaces eight Eastern, we'llbreak down all the action that we just
picked and tell you what you needto know. And of course next week
we'll have another big guest, justlike always, break it all down for

(01:14:14):
you right here on three and outyour National NFL Podcast