January 3, 2025 • 28 mins
USCHO Edge hosts Jim Connelly (@jimmyconnelly), Dan Rubin (@DanRubin12) and Ed Trefzger (@EdTrefzger) look at money lines and over/under for five college games and the IIHF WJC semifinals on January 3-4, 2025:
- Denver -140 @ Maine +110; over/under 6.5
- Cornell -120 vs. UMass -110; o/u 5.5
- Robert Morris +420 @ Arizona State -660; o/u 6.5 ("pizza money" game)
- Michigan -175 vs. Ohio State +135; o/u 5.5
- Penn State -110 vs. Notre Dame -120; o/u 5.5
- Finland U20 +120 vs. Sweden U20 -155; o/u 5.5
- Czechia U20 +250 vs. USA U20 -340; o/u 6.5
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to usccho Edge for Friday, January third, twenty twenty five.
I'm Ed Trevsker alongside Jim Connelly and Dan Rubin. We're
back at it. There's a few games this weekend, including
a pair of World Juniors to look at, but let's
dive right in. We're going to start out with the
non league games going on this weekend. Denver is at Maine. Meanwhile,
(00:38):
Denver's best defenseman and their head coach are up in Ottawa,
and Maine is licking its wounds off a loss.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
At home to Bentley. So what do we see here?
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Denver and Denver's minus one forty, Maine is plus one
ten and a slight underdog at home. The over under
on this one is six and a half.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
What a way to start twenty twenty five, and happy
New Year to everybody. By the way, I think this
is a great game. This game, by the way, will
be televised on ESPN, and you I believe John Butcher
Grosse Coldy Cohen on the call in this one. I
don't know if I have a preference either way. I
think Maine plays really well at home. You mentioned the
(01:19):
loss to Bentley that game actually was played in Portland,
so it was considered a neutral site game for Maine.
But inside Alphon they've been really good. I don't think
that's great money in terms of the value on this one,
but they are. They're a home underdog in a building
that they don't lose in often in Denver. I don't
know what to think of Denver right now. You're missing
(01:41):
your head coach, You're missing William as you mentioned, like
one of the best defensemen of the country. Is that
enough to just tilt everything for me? The fact that
they're in or oh, yes, I would have to go.
I'd have to favor Maine in this one.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
I think this is and I'm with you. I think
I favor man So I think I more or less.
Look at the over under here and the over under
being six and a half and actually like the over
here where it's plus one ten on the over and
there are a couple of reasons why one. I don't think.
I don't want to read too much into one game.
(02:19):
I don't want to read too much into Maine losing
to Bentley. Though from a personal standpoint, that was a
whole lot of fun to watch that one with my kids.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
And watching that at home. For me, I don't want
to read too.
Speaker 4 (02:28):
Much into it and say, Okay, Maine four to two,
they lost to Bentley and or even only beating stone
Hill quote unquote only beating them four two. What I
do think about Maine is that Denver, whether or not
Denver has or has their head coach, they're a very
good hockey team, and I think that they are good
enough to overcome not having your head coach behind the
(02:49):
bench for a game or two. I do think that
that Denver is good enough to do that. So I
think Denver is going to score because that's what Denver
is capable of doing. Though I know the Arizona State
Series in the Western Mission against Heies didn't really.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
Offer a whole lot of goals.
Speaker 4 (03:03):
I also think that Mein didn't get a couple back.
So that's why on six and a half like Denver
to win. But I don't like the odds, so I
like the whole underdog in mainz case. But I also
think this could be a four to three game which
hits the over and shades a bit over on six
and a half. The one thing I'll say is that
in the run up to this and I know I
said it about the Bentley game, as fun as it
(03:25):
is to say, oh, let's read into it. Don't read
into the shootout loss to you and LV. I think
I was the only person around that was like, oh,
you and LVB it was an exhibition.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
It was not.
Speaker 4 (03:35):
It was an exhibition for people who are sitting around saying, oh,
look at the upset, look at the s upset. It
was an exhibition. And so plenty of American teams lose
to the Canadian teams and exhibitions. Plenty of American teams
lose to other American teams and exhibitions. So don't read
into that and say Denver lost to UNLV. Congratulations to UNLV.
I think that's great. I think it's awesome. I think
(03:56):
it's a great story. I hope UNLV looks at coming
to d one because I think Vegas is a great
hockey market. But don't read into that in say Denver
has this giant gap going into Maine. Just don't read
into Maine and say they have this giant gap because
they lost the bent Life That said, I'm taking the
over and I'm probably not touching the other one. But
if I'm touching the money line Maine has value at
least as a home Underduck.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
I agree wholeheartedly about what you just said about UNLV
and that that exhibition game tie, that they play a
shootout and whatever. I just I can't get into those things,
especially when you're talking about a team that was missing
a good one of its best players, missing its coach,
probably playing out there, playing five lines d in the game,
(04:41):
maybe playing I think they played two goalies at least. Yeah,
I don't worry about that. I actually don't like the
over here. I don't like the over underline six and
a half. You just mentioned four to three. Could that happen, Yes,
but or two is just as likely, And I honestly
could see this game going three to one, three to two,
and it does. I think that favors Denver. If this
(05:03):
becomes running gone in the Alphond and you get that
crowd going, I think that's a really tough ask for
Denver on the road when they're facing a deep probably
the most hostile crowd they'll face on the road this year,
maybe outside of North Dakota. This will be a great
atmosphere at Alfond, even without the students. That this town
(05:24):
still turns out, and I think that this is one
of those games that if it goes high scoring favor
main if it goes low scoring favorite, Denver sneaky.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
Tough road trip.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
It's not a direction unless they're flying at the bangor
I don't think they did. Yeah, but I would argue
that this is probably a more difficult road trip for
Denver than even at the beginning of the season going
up to Anchorage, just on where they're located and having
a fly cross country. There is a bit of a
different time change when you start losing hours, not that
it matters than when you're.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Going up to Alaska.
Speaker 4 (05:58):
But I know they've come to Yale earlier this season,
but I do think that this is a tougher road
trip just to get into.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
Maine and play up there than it is.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
It's a tough trip to go up there on the bus,
let alone flying across country to go up there.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
I think I find flights easier than bus trips. But
I was going to say, you talk about running gun
and maybe whether it's over or under. Remember when Denver
faced a Boston College team that could fly up the
ice in the National Championship and how they set up
a defensive defensive scheme to really shut that down. They
(06:34):
know what kind of a team Maine is under seems
likely to me.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
That's that was what was running through my head at
remembering watching them in the regional and then watching them
in the Frozen four and the way that they took
at a Boston college team that averaged four goals a
game and shut them down, So.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
That that goes through my head.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
That's why I say, if it's a low scoring game,
I actually favorite Denver.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
Another non conference game has Cornnell at you Mass five
and a half is the over under. U Mass is
minus one ten. Cornell is a minus one twenty. Basically
a pick them. What do you do with this one?
Both teams minus come on, like, I get it your
sports books, but you're just like Juice and everybody right now,
(07:19):
it's wonderful pick them. I like Cornell here. I feel
Shafe's team has been playing pretty well, not consistent. That's
my only one thing with Cornell right now is they
haven't been one hundred percent consistent.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
But not that you Mass isn't good.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
I just think that Cornell probably is slightly the better
team here.
Speaker 3 (07:38):
No value either way, and in.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
Terms of the over underline. You can't bet under five
and a half. It's just that simple. I think you
have to take If you're going to touch the over
under here, you have to go over because why are
you betting for a three two three one two nothing
to one game?
Speaker 4 (07:55):
You bet that if you hate fun, right like, if
you want fun, if you want to root for fun,
you root for goals.
Speaker 3 (08:01):
Defense is fat was the Lion drama from Bull Durham.
Ground Balls are fascist, strikeouts are fascist. Whatever it is,
you got to root for more than that. I like
Cornell here.
Speaker 4 (08:10):
The fact this is a neutral site game, I think
for me is also a mitigating factor.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
This is being out in this one, being out in Arizona.
I like that. I just like the corn I like Cornell.
Speaker 4 (08:22):
Look, I'm trying to find a nice way to say
that Cornell gets dinged on the fact that they've only
played eleven games in the first half of the season,
and they didn't play until a real game quote unquote
until November.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
They're gonna get in And I said it a couple
of weeks ago. I said it or last month whenever
a couple podcasts ago.
Speaker 4 (08:38):
That the IVY League teams take their hits because they
play less games. So Cornell, if you add four or
five more non conference games at the beginning of the season,
now all of a sudden, they're nine to three and
three instead of five to three in three. They look
a significant better, significantly better to the pair wise and
what everyone is saying about them.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
So I like Cornell here, You Mass is a five
hundred team.
Speaker 4 (09:00):
I think that they have capability, but I also just
don't really think right now to start the second half
of the year that they're gonna they're.
Speaker 3 (09:08):
Going to come out and wow what we might expect
from them.
Speaker 4 (09:12):
I'd be looking for you Mass to maybe make a
run later in the year in the Hockey East, not now,
and not in a tournament type setting.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Let's take a look at the other half of that,
and that's Robert Morris and Arizona State. Six and a
half is the over under. Robert Morris is a plus
four to twenty minus six sixty is Arizona State. And
with all due respect to our colleague Robert Morris head
coach Derek Scooley, this one is indeed going to be
(09:40):
our pizza game for this one, meaning that yeah, put
some money on it if you don't mind missing a pizza.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
But those are really long oddos. We're already you already
gave away the pizza.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Yeah, but you know what, here, let me throw in
some thoughts on this and then you guys will be
smarter about it. But if you're looking at this, when
if you decide to put pizza money on Robert Morris,
then I'm going to tell you also take the under.
Because when they were able to shut down North Dakota
at North Dakota a few weeks ago, it was by
(10:12):
limiting goals. And so if you think Robert Morris is
going to win, then they're going to keep Arizona State
off the scoreboard. But I don't think they're going to
do that. But if you think so, do that.
Speaker 3 (10:23):
I actually don't mind Bobby Mo here.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
It's been a long time since I've been able to
sit those words, Bobby Mo. I really don't mind them here.
I just you can't take Arizona State here. There's no value.
I've never seen a line where I see less value.
I actually see value in Robert Morris, and they have.
This is a team that's a few games over five hundred.
They've played every opponent tough all year. Maybe didn't get
(10:50):
the right decisions at North Dakota, but they've played them tough.
And I put North Dakota in Arizona State on the
same footing here in terms of the opponent, an opponent
quality opponent.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
They're playing.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
Arizona State right now is playing time of its best
hockey going into the breaks. I really just don't mind
throwing my twenty dollars on Robert Morris here.
Speaker 3 (11:13):
Wouldn't touch the over under. I do agree with you, rat.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
If they're gonna win, if Robert Morris is going to win,
they're gonna have to keep it a low scoring game.
But for the most part, I just don't mind throwing
twenty dollars here on Robert Morris.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
Do we really think I'm gonna pick against an Atlantic
Hockey America team?
Speaker 3 (11:30):
Like? Is that just? Is that? Do we really think
that's gonna happen? That's just not gonna happen.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
So I'm all and look, it's this is Robert Morrison
that could score, and we're all saying about the low
scoring game.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
They're averaging three and a half goals were game. I
know it's I know it's modest.
Speaker 4 (11:45):
They scored nine against Miami back at October, and I
know they shut down North Dakota, and that's very different.
Scored three in one of those games against North Dakota,
and they scored four in the win over Eice. They
scored seven against our t even just scrolling down, and shockingly,
I don't actually remember those games, probably because Bentley was
on the road after that November, so.
Speaker 3 (12:05):
I had finally gone to sleep for a weekend. But
I like him. And you know what, if we're talking
to pizza many pizza money bet, why not?
Speaker 4 (12:12):
And I'm sure that coach Schooley is gonna then turn
around and send us all text messages and say great
every time Rubin picks against us or picks for us.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
We lose if we picked for us, and we win
when he picks against us.
Speaker 4 (12:24):
So you know what, I'll pick Arizona State then, just
to give him that. But I think it's a good
pizza money bet. I love it.
Speaker 3 (12:29):
I honestly go a meat lover's pizza here. Oh absolutely,
this is this is.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
Not just throw down the standard cheeks for a cheese.
I'm going to twenty bucks for the meat lovers.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
If you look at the combined record of the teams
that Robert Morris has scored four goals or more against,
then you would say that's not so spectacular. Just saying
we don't need to focus on stuff like that. We
don't need to bring that negativity to the new year, ed,
we do not need that negative.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
Analytics ADS advanced analytics.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
I love it.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Yeah, it's just off the top of my head. Well,
let's take a break, we'll come back. We'll look at
two Big Ten games plus the World Juniors. When US
Echo Edge continues, we're back with US Echo Edge. Outdoor games.
I used to love them, then I hated them. Now
I'm just ambivalent. It's Michigan and Ohio State five and
(13:24):
a half is the over under Michigan is minus one
seventy five, Ohio State plus one thirty five.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
Honestly, every one of these I just have to take
the underdog. And it's just because you cannot really accurately
predict what's going to happen on outdoor hockey. That's as
and I would expect low scoring.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
You don't get a lot of goals outdoors.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
Any of these games, head for the under and if
you're gonna if you're gonna bet them, I take the underdog.
And it has nothing to do with the teams that
are even playing.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
It's just the value is going to be the the
dog and the.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
Fact that outdoor ice everything that goes along with it
so unpredictable.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
Yeah, no, you're one hundred percent agree.
Speaker 4 (14:11):
I do also think just the fact that this is
being played, which team could handle the cold?
Speaker 3 (14:17):
Is it's going to be very cold in Chicago this weekend. Yeah,
it's gonna be.
Speaker 4 (14:21):
It's going to be down around fifteen degrees and wind chills.
So I think it's a factor that in is a
great equalizer too that any type of fast statistical advantage.
I'm with you. I've picked the underdog with Ohio State.
Hope that Ohio State doesn't plant the flag at the
center of the ice after this one, that's all I'm
hoping for.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
One they do, they'll probably bust a free on pipe.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
There's a game at night.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Unfortunately, with the cold weather, that's not going to cause
Cincinnati situation in a flood.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
It's probably okay with that.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
The other part of that one tomorrow today, right, Yeah, today,
I'm going to start that again. The other part of
that one is Penn State and Notre Dame. Notre Dame
is minus one twenty, Penn State is minus one ten
and the over under on that one.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
Is five and a half.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
We talked about World Juniors, Danny Nelson is missing upfront
for Notre Dame in this one.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
Listen, this goes almost to what I just said about Michigan,
but maybe even more so because this game really is
a pick them, pick your favorite team here.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
I wouldn't touch the over under at five and a half.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
If you do, I guess hammer the over because I
don't like unders on five and a halfs.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
This is one I don't have an opinion.
Speaker 1 (15:38):
I guess I probably shade Notre Dame a little bit,
but I don't have I don't feel good either way
on this one.
Speaker 4 (15:48):
If I'm taking anyone, I'm taking Notre Dame because of
the uniform. I don't have a good fear, a strong
feeling either way. And they're where it's really sweet jerseys
on this one. If anyone hasn't seen them, they're doing
like Chicago. It's fired uniforms with the Cubs c and
you know they replace the stars from the Chicago flag,
the you know, the four stars. They did it with Shamrock.
(16:08):
So the uniforms are really nice, so and I think
they're gonna pop on televisions. I'm gonna that's my basis.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
Again.
Speaker 4 (16:15):
I don't know if my disdain is coming out for
the outdoor game, because I genuinely do enjoy going to
games at the stadiums. I remember going to Fenway and
I think it's a cool atmosphere. And I went to
a couple of football games at both Fenway and Yankee Stadium,
and I think it's just a cool atmosphere. But I
at this point where they're both it's a pick them.
I wouldn't touch the over under. But the night game,
(16:36):
it's gonna be very slick. It's gonna be very cold.
I'll shade the favorite here quote and take Notre Dame.
You know, ambivalence the right word. Yeah, I love to
add description of it.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
You don't care because the site, in the look of
it all is cool. That's where it ends. But the
cold weather fans sitting out in the cold, broadcasters being
in the cold, anybody has to sit out there. Gross
if it rains, God, it's even Morris. It's just there's
nothing great about it. The ice is never a good
(17:09):
enough condition to be playing games that count in my opinion.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
Sorry, I know.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
If Hockey's retired Commissioner Emeritus, Joe Britanya was listening, he
would call me a curmudgeon, because.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
That's what he called me when I said the same
thing about Fenway.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
But it is it's just you can't recreate an arena outdoors.
Speaker 3 (17:29):
You can't.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
And I know the environment and the experience for the
student athlete is probably wonderful.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
The ice is going to be trash.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
You can't create an arena indoors either. There's we think
back to twenty ten, but I'll leave that there. The
only outdoor game I ever.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
Do it, That's where I was going with it. Beat
me to that one.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
The only outdoor game I called was in twenty fifteen
and it was cold, very cold, with light flurries the
whole time, and they had to stop midway through periods
to scrape the ice because the pucks wouldn't go.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
So yeah, I remember a frozen Fenway game. I don't
know the year, and they had to open the zamboni
door to release probably five thousand gallons of water that
had built up on the ice because it poured rain.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
You just can't control.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
There's too many aspects you cannot control on an outdoor game. Exhibitions,
make them exhibitions, make them fake tournaments, I don't care,
Just don't make them games that are going to count
towards your pairwise it.
Speaker 4 (18:33):
The last point is that you also can't recreate enforce
the organic success that happened. Like when twenty ten, I
think it was in the Winter Classic was a Fenway
and BC played BU.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
That was organic. That was unbelievable.
Speaker 4 (18:48):
That was awesome, But there were forty thousand, There were
sixty five thousand people saying they were at that place
efter it was done, and it was a thirty thousand.
That was the forty thousand people were there. It was
wall wall people. It was awesome and for the players
that was really cool. But you also can't recreate that
and what general we could talk about that forever, we
could only and on into it. So I agree. I look,
(19:09):
I enjoy going to the games as a fan. I
enjoy when it's when it's a nice night out or
anything like that. I do agree that I'm just ambivalent
to them, to them occurring.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
Now I'm going to throw in one last thing back
with the game. If you're going to take Penn State,
take the over. If you're taking Notre Dame, take the under.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
I like that. Yeah, good with that. That's a good philosophy.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
And let's look at the World Juniors quickly before we
wrap up. It was fun watching those games. I know
a lot of my USA fans were ecstatic in the
last minute of the Canada Checkia game yesterday. But we
have Finland matched up against Sweden over under on this one.
Speaker 3 (19:52):
It's five and a half.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Finland is plus one twenty Sweden is minus one fifty five.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
The only thing I'm going to say on this one
really is if you're going to bet anything here, go
with the over. Goals have been easy to come by
in this tournament, so I feel five and a half
as an over under is really low. I know that
these two teams have played pretty good defense at times,
but the goals have been.
Speaker 3 (20:18):
Coming.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
Teams are popping, There's plenty of goals going, so I
don't mind the thought of taking the over here. You
should favorite Sweden here technically, but I think either team
could win this one.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (20:31):
The one thing I'll throw out there is not only
that you're in a metal round game, like you're in
the semi finals, which is which is important that both
of these teams will in some capacity play for a medal.
But also consider on Finland that there is some value
because it's a major international rivalry. On the ice, Finland
(20:55):
and Sweden have a huge rivalry, and specifically at the
World Juniors, where traditionally they're two of the stronger teams.
I like Finland here with the value. I think you're
right about the over the I would be hammering that
these goals five and a half should get obliterated. It
doesn't matter how good a team is defensively.
Speaker 2 (21:14):
The other half of it has the Czech Republic taking
on Team USA. Six and a half is the over under.
Chechia is plus two fifty. USA is minus three forty,
a heavy favorite.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
This could have been our pizza money bet. To be
honest with you, I think that the value on the
US is not there. I think the US should be
a favorite.
Speaker 3 (21:36):
I get that. I think Check is a really good team.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
I'm worried for the US, and you just don't know
what happens when you're playing back to back days.
Speaker 3 (21:46):
That's one of the other things.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
And I do get the fact that CHECKI have played
the late game on Thursday. They're going to play the
late game again tonight Friday. US has extra rests and
stuff like that. That and the US definitely had an
easier game CHECKI. I had to go to the final
minute and win it on the power play against Canada.
I don't think I would touch this game. Maybe it's
(22:10):
because I'm a US fan. It would be very difficult
to bet against my home country. But I couldn't bet
the US here. I could in good conscience. There's no
value there. So if I'm betting this, I'd actually go
with Checkia and their goaltender Michael Rabble from UMass has
been fantastic in this tournament, so I see a lot
(22:30):
of value on Checkia.
Speaker 3 (22:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (22:33):
I'm the same here, And that's probably why I avoid
betting this one altogether. If I'm looking at it, is
because largely because I feel like, if you bet against
the United States, then I think we got to I
don't know, like.
Speaker 3 (22:42):
Strip your passport or something. I don't know.
Speaker 4 (22:44):
Can't bet against your country. That's the one thing I do.
That's the one thing I do feel.
Speaker 3 (22:48):
In that set.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
There's just no value there whatsoever. On minus three forty
check you also like you said, very good. You don't
get to this point by accident. And one thing that
I've read in the aftermath is everybody's a Canada bombed out,
Canada choked Canada. One be careful how much you want
to destroy these poor kids who were representing their Just
(23:11):
be careful on what you say on their team struggles
and what happened. It's not fair to a teenager. But
that said, the Canada team got beat by a team
that was playing better, and so you don't get here
by accident. And if you're here, you can win. And
so if you're going to take a bed here, there's
a lot of value on the checks.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
I feel bad for Team Canada. I think they were
poorly coached and undisciplined. But I think most of Canada
thinks that too.
Speaker 3 (23:38):
Hey, I think that most of Canada understands they were
poorly assembled.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
To yes, whoever put together this team, I don't know
the Hockey Canada inner workings as much as they do
Team USA. We had John dam Beeesbrook on our show
at a few weeks ago. We know what put it together.
We know where this team came from. Team Canada, I
feel like it was a lot of controversy too bad
(24:02):
because actually posted this on social media last night. I
don't love seeing the host country not making the metal
around it. It takes a lot of air out of
the whole situation.
Speaker 3 (24:13):
So it's a bit of a bummer to Nazi Canada.
Speaker 1 (24:16):
I looked forward to a Canada USA matchup tonight.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
I am all go Usa.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
I cannot root harder for them right now going into
tonight's game and no disspetch a check ye.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
I just really wanted Canada and night One question in
here just the top on there too.
Speaker 4 (24:33):
Is this a good inflection point for the World Juniors
when you have newer teams coming up? You mentioned how
Michael Rabble poise for the checks in that we're getting
a different look at the semi finals, and then everyone
would have expected Canada, United States, Finland, Sweden to get
another team in. There's this good inflection point just for
(24:54):
the way we have to recalibrate how we.
Speaker 3 (24:56):
Look sometimes at the World Juniors.
Speaker 4 (24:57):
I know there was I think it was Latvia that
had a big They had a big win earlier in
the tournament and looked good doing it. There was there
have been newer countries coming up, so is this a
good time for us to reassess after the fact of
how we look at these and I think we see
it in the odds sometimes.
Speaker 1 (25:12):
Yeah, I will say Dan that I before the tournament,
I analyzed this US team and said it's probably the
best team they've ever put on the ice at the
World Juniors. And they have not had a walk through.
This is a very difficult tournament for them. This is
going to be a very tough game tonight. That just
shows how good this tournament has gotten. Latvia has been
(25:34):
probably the story of the tournament. They took the Swedes
right to the final buzzer. Yesterday they upset Canada in
a shootout with the shootout win LTFI or if you
look at them when I think one of the unique
things about this tournament, if you're seventeen or under, or
maybe it's under seventeen, you have to wear the full
face shield. And you looked at the lot Fians and
(25:56):
half their team felt like they had the full face
shields because they were so young. And that just shows
that the future of Locky as the World Junior Hockey
should be very strong.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
This is a team that I would expect. They got
their first ever two.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
Wins in a tournament this year, I would expect them
to have three wins. I expect them in the semifinal
within the next three years.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
One last thing, very quickly.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
We don't usually with our college hockey games have a
lot of prop bets and parlays. There are a ton
of them to look at. We can't get into them.
Do you have just some broad, quick advice on what
to do with some of those?
Speaker 3 (26:32):
Just stay the hell away, honestly, listen.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
And I know that people make a living out of
prop bets, but if you are not literally studying everything
about every player on both of the teams, don't better
prop bet prop bets.
Speaker 3 (26:48):
Can go a long way.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
They can really make things very profitable for you. I
don't like prop betting. It's just something I've avoided. It's
too random to me. Whatever it could be, first goalscorer,
number of shots and a period, number of goals in
a period, first goal in the first ten minutes, all
that stuff.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
Just stay away from me. You don't know.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
You are flipping a coin if you like to, if
you like to throw money out there at a fifty
to fifty flip.
Speaker 3 (27:16):
Throw money out there at it. Then you might as well.
Speaker 1 (27:19):
Just see if somebody at the corner of the street
will bet you five dollars on a heads or a tails,
because that's whey what prov betting is.
Speaker 3 (27:26):
Yeah, and it's worse. It's harder in hockey.
Speaker 4 (27:30):
Like you have a line chart that's got twelve forwards,
six defensemen, you're looking at eighteen. However, many guys are
on a more than that four times three yeah, twelve
yeah right, skaters.
Speaker 3 (27:42):
Yeah, And it's not like basketball.
Speaker 4 (27:45):
Where basketball, if you're betting a guy to get his
points and you're looking at the guys, say, are right
thirty plus points in the game thirty and a half.
If you're betting over thirty and a half, someone's going
to shoot the ball a lot on a team like
you're not if you're looking at a college basketball game
or a college an NBA game, rather who's getting the ball,
you don't know who's.
Speaker 3 (28:03):
Getting the puck for the shot on goal.
Speaker 4 (28:05):
In hockey, it's way harder to do for anytime goal scores.
Speaker 3 (28:08):
So I'm with you. I I would touch any of this, all.
Speaker 2 (28:12):
Right, So spend that money you would have put on
a prop on another sapping on that pizza.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
Get the real pizza and pat Robert Morris. There you go.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
We're gonna wrap up right there for Jim Connolly, for
Dan Rubin, im ed Trefsker.
Speaker 3 (28:29):
And this has been usc cho edge
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to usccho Edge for Friday, January third, twenty twenty five.
I'm Ed Trevsker alongside Jim Connelly and Dan Rubin. We're
back at it. There's a few games this weekend, including
a pair of World Juniors to look at, but let's
dive right in. We're going to start out with the
non league games going on this weekend. Denver is at Maine. Meanwhile,
(00:38):
Denver's best defenseman and their head coach are up in Ottawa,
and Maine is licking its wounds off a loss.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
At home to Bentley. So what do we see here?
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Denver and Denver's minus one forty, Maine is plus one
ten and a slight underdog at home. The over under
on this one is six and a half.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
What a way to start twenty twenty five, and happy
New Year to everybody. By the way, I think this
is a great game. This game, by the way, will
be televised on ESPN, and you I believe John Butcher
Grosse Coldy Cohen on the call in this one. I
don't know if I have a preference either way. I
think Maine plays really well at home. You mentioned the
(01:19):
loss to Bentley that game actually was played in Portland,
so it was considered a neutral site game for Maine.
But inside Alphon they've been really good. I don't think
that's great money in terms of the value on this one,
but they are. They're a home underdog in a building
that they don't lose in often in Denver. I don't
know what to think of Denver right now. You're missing
(01:41):
your head coach, You're missing William as you mentioned, like
one of the best defensemen of the country. Is that
enough to just tilt everything for me? The fact that
they're in or oh, yes, I would have to go.
I'd have to favor Maine in this one.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
I think this is and I'm with you. I think
I favor man So I think I more or less.
Look at the over under here and the over under
being six and a half and actually like the over
here where it's plus one ten on the over and
there are a couple of reasons why one. I don't think.
I don't want to read too much into one game.
(02:19):
I don't want to read too much into Maine losing
to Bentley. Though from a personal standpoint, that was a
whole lot of fun to watch that one with my kids.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
And watching that at home. For me, I don't want
to read too.
Speaker 4 (02:28):
Much into it and say, Okay, Maine four to two,
they lost to Bentley and or even only beating stone
Hill quote unquote only beating them four two. What I
do think about Maine is that Denver, whether or not
Denver has or has their head coach, they're a very
good hockey team, and I think that they are good
enough to overcome not having your head coach behind the
(02:49):
bench for a game or two. I do think that
that Denver is good enough to do that. So I
think Denver is going to score because that's what Denver
is capable of doing. Though I know the Arizona State
Series in the Western Mission against Heies didn't really.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
Offer a whole lot of goals.
Speaker 4 (03:03):
I also think that Mein didn't get a couple back.
So that's why on six and a half like Denver
to win. But I don't like the odds, so I
like the whole underdog in mainz case. But I also
think this could be a four to three game which
hits the over and shades a bit over on six
and a half. The one thing I'll say is that
in the run up to this and I know I
said it about the Bentley game, as fun as it
(03:25):
is to say, oh, let's read into it. Don't read
into the shootout loss to you and LV. I think
I was the only person around that was like, oh,
you and LVB it was an exhibition.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
It was not.
Speaker 4 (03:35):
It was an exhibition for people who are sitting around saying, oh,
look at the upset, look at the s upset. It
was an exhibition. And so plenty of American teams lose
to the Canadian teams and exhibitions. Plenty of American teams
lose to other American teams and exhibitions. So don't read
into that and say Denver lost to UNLV. Congratulations to UNLV.
I think that's great. I think it's awesome. I think
(03:56):
it's a great story. I hope UNLV looks at coming
to d one because I think Vegas is a great
hockey market. But don't read into that in say Denver
has this giant gap going into Maine. Just don't read
into Maine and say they have this giant gap because
they lost the bent Life That said, I'm taking the
over and I'm probably not touching the other one. But
if I'm touching the money line Maine has value at
least as a home Underduck.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
I agree wholeheartedly about what you just said about UNLV
and that that exhibition game tie, that they play a
shootout and whatever. I just I can't get into those things,
especially when you're talking about a team that was missing
a good one of its best players, missing its coach,
probably playing out there, playing five lines d in the game,
(04:41):
maybe playing I think they played two goalies at least. Yeah,
I don't worry about that. I actually don't like the
over here. I don't like the over underline six and
a half. You just mentioned four to three. Could that happen, Yes,
but or two is just as likely, And I honestly
could see this game going three to one, three to two,
and it does. I think that favors Denver. If this
(05:03):
becomes running gone in the Alphond and you get that
crowd going, I think that's a really tough ask for
Denver on the road when they're facing a deep probably
the most hostile crowd they'll face on the road this year,
maybe outside of North Dakota. This will be a great
atmosphere at Alfond, even without the students. That this town
(05:24):
still turns out, and I think that this is one
of those games that if it goes high scoring favor
main if it goes low scoring favorite, Denver sneaky.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
Tough road trip.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
It's not a direction unless they're flying at the bangor
I don't think they did. Yeah, but I would argue
that this is probably a more difficult road trip for
Denver than even at the beginning of the season going
up to Anchorage, just on where they're located and having
a fly cross country. There is a bit of a
different time change when you start losing hours, not that
it matters than when you're.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Going up to Alaska.
Speaker 4 (05:58):
But I know they've come to Yale earlier this season,
but I do think that this is a tougher road
trip just to get into.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
Maine and play up there than it is.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
It's a tough trip to go up there on the bus,
let alone flying across country to go up there.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
I think I find flights easier than bus trips. But
I was going to say, you talk about running gun
and maybe whether it's over or under. Remember when Denver
faced a Boston College team that could fly up the
ice in the National Championship and how they set up
a defensive defensive scheme to really shut that down. They
(06:34):
know what kind of a team Maine is under seems
likely to me.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
That's that was what was running through my head at
remembering watching them in the regional and then watching them
in the Frozen four and the way that they took
at a Boston college team that averaged four goals a
game and shut them down, So.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
That that goes through my head.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
That's why I say, if it's a low scoring game,
I actually favorite Denver.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
Another non conference game has Cornnell at you Mass five
and a half is the over under. U Mass is
minus one ten. Cornell is a minus one twenty. Basically
a pick them. What do you do with this one?
Both teams minus come on, like, I get it your
sports books, but you're just like Juice and everybody right now,
(07:19):
it's wonderful pick them. I like Cornell here. I feel
Shafe's team has been playing pretty well, not consistent. That's
my only one thing with Cornell right now is they
haven't been one hundred percent consistent.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
But not that you Mass isn't good.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
I just think that Cornell probably is slightly the better
team here.
Speaker 3 (07:38):
No value either way, and in.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
Terms of the over underline. You can't bet under five
and a half. It's just that simple. I think you
have to take If you're going to touch the over
under here, you have to go over because why are
you betting for a three two three one two nothing
to one game?
Speaker 4 (07:55):
You bet that if you hate fun, right like, if
you want fun, if you want to root for fun,
you root for goals.
Speaker 3 (08:01):
Defense is fat was the Lion drama from Bull Durham.
Ground Balls are fascist, strikeouts are fascist. Whatever it is,
you got to root for more than that. I like
Cornell here.
Speaker 4 (08:10):
The fact this is a neutral site game, I think
for me is also a mitigating factor.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
This is being out in this one, being out in Arizona.
I like that. I just like the corn I like Cornell.
Speaker 4 (08:22):
Look, I'm trying to find a nice way to say
that Cornell gets dinged on the fact that they've only
played eleven games in the first half of the season,
and they didn't play until a real game quote unquote
until November.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
They're gonna get in And I said it a couple
of weeks ago. I said it or last month whenever
a couple podcasts ago.
Speaker 4 (08:38):
That the IVY League teams take their hits because they
play less games. So Cornell, if you add four or
five more non conference games at the beginning of the season,
now all of a sudden, they're nine to three and
three instead of five to three in three. They look
a significant better, significantly better to the pair wise and
what everyone is saying about them.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
So I like Cornell here, You Mass is a five
hundred team.
Speaker 4 (09:00):
I think that they have capability, but I also just
don't really think right now to start the second half
of the year that they're gonna they're.
Speaker 3 (09:08):
Going to come out and wow what we might expect
from them.
Speaker 4 (09:12):
I'd be looking for you Mass to maybe make a
run later in the year in the Hockey East, not now,
and not in a tournament type setting.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Let's take a look at the other half of that,
and that's Robert Morris and Arizona State. Six and a
half is the over under. Robert Morris is a plus
four to twenty minus six sixty is Arizona State. And
with all due respect to our colleague Robert Morris head
coach Derek Scooley, this one is indeed going to be
(09:40):
our pizza game for this one, meaning that yeah, put
some money on it if you don't mind missing a pizza.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
But those are really long oddos. We're already you already
gave away the pizza.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Yeah, but you know what, here, let me throw in
some thoughts on this and then you guys will be
smarter about it. But if you're looking at this, when
if you decide to put pizza money on Robert Morris,
then I'm going to tell you also take the under.
Because when they were able to shut down North Dakota
at North Dakota a few weeks ago, it was by
(10:12):
limiting goals. And so if you think Robert Morris is
going to win, then they're going to keep Arizona State
off the scoreboard. But I don't think they're going to
do that. But if you think so, do that.
Speaker 3 (10:23):
I actually don't mind Bobby Mo here.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
It's been a long time since I've been able to
sit those words, Bobby Mo. I really don't mind them here.
I just you can't take Arizona State here. There's no value.
I've never seen a line where I see less value.
I actually see value in Robert Morris, and they have.
This is a team that's a few games over five hundred.
They've played every opponent tough all year. Maybe didn't get
(10:50):
the right decisions at North Dakota, but they've played them tough.
And I put North Dakota in Arizona State on the
same footing here in terms of the opponent, an opponent
quality opponent.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
They're playing.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
Arizona State right now is playing time of its best
hockey going into the breaks. I really just don't mind
throwing my twenty dollars on Robert Morris here.
Speaker 3 (11:13):
Wouldn't touch the over under. I do agree with you, rat.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
If they're gonna win, if Robert Morris is going to win,
they're gonna have to keep it a low scoring game.
But for the most part, I just don't mind throwing
twenty dollars here on Robert Morris.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
Do we really think I'm gonna pick against an Atlantic
Hockey America team?
Speaker 3 (11:30):
Like? Is that just? Is that? Do we really think
that's gonna happen? That's just not gonna happen.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
So I'm all and look, it's this is Robert Morrison
that could score, and we're all saying about the low
scoring game.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
They're averaging three and a half goals were game. I
know it's I know it's modest.
Speaker 4 (11:45):
They scored nine against Miami back at October, and I
know they shut down North Dakota, and that's very different.
Scored three in one of those games against North Dakota,
and they scored four in the win over Eice. They
scored seven against our t even just scrolling down, and shockingly,
I don't actually remember those games, probably because Bentley was
on the road after that November, so.
Speaker 3 (12:05):
I had finally gone to sleep for a weekend. But
I like him. And you know what, if we're talking
to pizza many pizza money bet, why not?
Speaker 4 (12:12):
And I'm sure that coach Schooley is gonna then turn
around and send us all text messages and say great
every time Rubin picks against us or picks for us.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
We lose if we picked for us, and we win
when he picks against us.
Speaker 4 (12:24):
So you know what, I'll pick Arizona State then, just
to give him that. But I think it's a good
pizza money bet. I love it.
Speaker 3 (12:29):
I honestly go a meat lover's pizza here. Oh absolutely,
this is this is.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
Not just throw down the standard cheeks for a cheese.
I'm going to twenty bucks for the meat lovers.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
If you look at the combined record of the teams
that Robert Morris has scored four goals or more against,
then you would say that's not so spectacular. Just saying
we don't need to focus on stuff like that. We
don't need to bring that negativity to the new year, ed,
we do not need that negative.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
Analytics ADS advanced analytics.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
I love it.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Yeah, it's just off the top of my head. Well,
let's take a break, we'll come back. We'll look at
two Big Ten games plus the World Juniors. When US
Echo Edge continues, we're back with US Echo Edge. Outdoor games.
I used to love them, then I hated them. Now
I'm just ambivalent. It's Michigan and Ohio State five and
(13:24):
a half is the over under Michigan is minus one
seventy five, Ohio State plus one thirty five.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
Honestly, every one of these I just have to take
the underdog. And it's just because you cannot really accurately
predict what's going to happen on outdoor hockey. That's as
and I would expect low scoring.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
You don't get a lot of goals outdoors.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
Any of these games, head for the under and if
you're gonna if you're gonna bet them, I take the underdog.
And it has nothing to do with the teams that
are even playing.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
It's just the value is going to be the the
dog and the.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
Fact that outdoor ice everything that goes along with it
so unpredictable.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
Yeah, no, you're one hundred percent agree.
Speaker 4 (14:11):
I do also think just the fact that this is
being played, which team could handle the cold?
Speaker 3 (14:17):
Is it's going to be very cold in Chicago this weekend. Yeah,
it's gonna be.
Speaker 4 (14:21):
It's going to be down around fifteen degrees and wind chills.
So I think it's a factor that in is a
great equalizer too that any type of fast statistical advantage.
I'm with you. I've picked the underdog with Ohio State.
Hope that Ohio State doesn't plant the flag at the
center of the ice after this one, that's all I'm
hoping for.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
One they do, they'll probably bust a free on pipe.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
There's a game at night.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Unfortunately, with the cold weather, that's not going to cause
Cincinnati situation in a flood.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
It's probably okay with that.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
The other part of that one tomorrow today, right, Yeah, today,
I'm going to start that again. The other part of
that one is Penn State and Notre Dame. Notre Dame
is minus one twenty, Penn State is minus one ten
and the over under on that one.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
Is five and a half.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
We talked about World Juniors, Danny Nelson is missing upfront
for Notre Dame in this one.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
Listen, this goes almost to what I just said about Michigan,
but maybe even more so because this game really is
a pick them, pick your favorite team here.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
I wouldn't touch the over under at five and a half.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
If you do, I guess hammer the over because I
don't like unders on five and a halfs.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
This is one I don't have an opinion.
Speaker 1 (15:38):
I guess I probably shade Notre Dame a little bit,
but I don't have I don't feel good either way
on this one.
Speaker 4 (15:48):
If I'm taking anyone, I'm taking Notre Dame because of
the uniform. I don't have a good fear, a strong
feeling either way. And they're where it's really sweet jerseys
on this one. If anyone hasn't seen them, they're doing
like Chicago. It's fired uniforms with the Cubs c and
you know they replace the stars from the Chicago flag,
the you know, the four stars. They did it with Shamrock.
(16:08):
So the uniforms are really nice, so and I think
they're gonna pop on televisions. I'm gonna that's my basis.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
Again.
Speaker 4 (16:15):
I don't know if my disdain is coming out for
the outdoor game, because I genuinely do enjoy going to
games at the stadiums. I remember going to Fenway and
I think it's a cool atmosphere. And I went to
a couple of football games at both Fenway and Yankee Stadium,
and I think it's just a cool atmosphere. But I
at this point where they're both it's a pick them.
I wouldn't touch the over under. But the night game,
(16:36):
it's gonna be very slick. It's gonna be very cold.
I'll shade the favorite here quote and take Notre Dame.
You know, ambivalence the right word. Yeah, I love to
add description of it.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
You don't care because the site, in the look of
it all is cool. That's where it ends. But the
cold weather fans sitting out in the cold, broadcasters being
in the cold, anybody has to sit out there. Gross
if it rains, God, it's even Morris. It's just there's
nothing great about it. The ice is never a good
(17:09):
enough condition to be playing games that count in my opinion.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
Sorry, I know.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
If Hockey's retired Commissioner Emeritus, Joe Britanya was listening, he
would call me a curmudgeon, because.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
That's what he called me when I said the same
thing about Fenway.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
But it is it's just you can't recreate an arena outdoors.
Speaker 3 (17:29):
You can't.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
And I know the environment and the experience for the
student athlete is probably wonderful.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
The ice is going to be trash.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
You can't create an arena indoors either. There's we think
back to twenty ten, but I'll leave that there. The
only outdoor game I ever.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
Do it, That's where I was going with it. Beat
me to that one.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
The only outdoor game I called was in twenty fifteen
and it was cold, very cold, with light flurries the
whole time, and they had to stop midway through periods
to scrape the ice because the pucks wouldn't go.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
So yeah, I remember a frozen Fenway game. I don't
know the year, and they had to open the zamboni
door to release probably five thousand gallons of water that
had built up on the ice because it poured rain.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
You just can't control.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
There's too many aspects you cannot control on an outdoor game. Exhibitions,
make them exhibitions, make them fake tournaments, I don't care,
Just don't make them games that are going to count
towards your pairwise it.
Speaker 4 (18:33):
The last point is that you also can't recreate enforce
the organic success that happened. Like when twenty ten, I
think it was in the Winter Classic was a Fenway
and BC played BU.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
That was organic. That was unbelievable.
Speaker 4 (18:48):
That was awesome, But there were forty thousand, There were
sixty five thousand people saying they were at that place
efter it was done, and it was a thirty thousand.
That was the forty thousand people were there. It was
wall wall people. It was awesome and for the players
that was really cool. But you also can't recreate that
and what general we could talk about that forever, we
could only and on into it. So I agree. I look,
(19:09):
I enjoy going to the games as a fan. I
enjoy when it's when it's a nice night out or
anything like that. I do agree that I'm just ambivalent
to them, to them occurring.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
Now I'm going to throw in one last thing back
with the game. If you're going to take Penn State,
take the over. If you're taking Notre Dame, take the under.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
I like that. Yeah, good with that. That's a good philosophy.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
And let's look at the World Juniors quickly before we
wrap up. It was fun watching those games. I know
a lot of my USA fans were ecstatic in the
last minute of the Canada Checkia game yesterday. But we
have Finland matched up against Sweden over under on this one.
Speaker 3 (19:52):
It's five and a half.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Finland is plus one twenty Sweden is minus one fifty five.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
The only thing I'm going to say on this one
really is if you're going to bet anything here, go
with the over. Goals have been easy to come by
in this tournament, so I feel five and a half
as an over under is really low. I know that
these two teams have played pretty good defense at times,
but the goals have been.
Speaker 3 (20:18):
Coming.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
Teams are popping, There's plenty of goals going, so I
don't mind the thought of taking the over here. You
should favorite Sweden here technically, but I think either team
could win this one.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (20:31):
The one thing I'll throw out there is not only
that you're in a metal round game, like you're in
the semi finals, which is which is important that both
of these teams will in some capacity play for a medal.
But also consider on Finland that there is some value
because it's a major international rivalry. On the ice, Finland
(20:55):
and Sweden have a huge rivalry, and specifically at the
World Juniors, where traditionally they're two of the stronger teams.
I like Finland here with the value. I think you're
right about the over the I would be hammering that
these goals five and a half should get obliterated. It
doesn't matter how good a team is defensively.
Speaker 2 (21:14):
The other half of it has the Czech Republic taking
on Team USA. Six and a half is the over under.
Chechia is plus two fifty. USA is minus three forty,
a heavy favorite.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
This could have been our pizza money bet. To be
honest with you, I think that the value on the
US is not there. I think the US should be
a favorite.
Speaker 3 (21:36):
I get that. I think Check is a really good team.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
I'm worried for the US, and you just don't know
what happens when you're playing back to back days.
Speaker 3 (21:46):
That's one of the other things.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
And I do get the fact that CHECKI have played
the late game on Thursday. They're going to play the
late game again tonight Friday. US has extra rests and
stuff like that. That and the US definitely had an
easier game CHECKI. I had to go to the final
minute and win it on the power play against Canada.
I don't think I would touch this game. Maybe it's
(22:10):
because I'm a US fan. It would be very difficult
to bet against my home country. But I couldn't bet
the US here. I could in good conscience. There's no
value there. So if I'm betting this, I'd actually go
with Checkia and their goaltender Michael Rabble from UMass has
been fantastic in this tournament, so I see a lot
(22:30):
of value on Checkia.
Speaker 3 (22:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (22:33):
I'm the same here, And that's probably why I avoid
betting this one altogether. If I'm looking at it, is
because largely because I feel like, if you bet against
the United States, then I think we got to I
don't know, like.
Speaker 3 (22:42):
Strip your passport or something. I don't know.
Speaker 4 (22:44):
Can't bet against your country. That's the one thing I do.
That's the one thing I do feel.
Speaker 3 (22:48):
In that set.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
There's just no value there whatsoever. On minus three forty
check you also like you said, very good. You don't
get to this point by accident. And one thing that
I've read in the aftermath is everybody's a Canada bombed out,
Canada choked Canada. One be careful how much you want
to destroy these poor kids who were representing their Just
(23:11):
be careful on what you say on their team struggles
and what happened. It's not fair to a teenager. But
that said, the Canada team got beat by a team
that was playing better, and so you don't get here
by accident. And if you're here, you can win. And
so if you're going to take a bed here, there's
a lot of value on the checks.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
I feel bad for Team Canada. I think they were
poorly coached and undisciplined. But I think most of Canada
thinks that too.
Speaker 3 (23:38):
Hey, I think that most of Canada understands they were
poorly assembled.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
To yes, whoever put together this team, I don't know
the Hockey Canada inner workings as much as they do
Team USA. We had John dam Beeesbrook on our show
at a few weeks ago. We know what put it together.
We know where this team came from. Team Canada, I
feel like it was a lot of controversy too bad
(24:02):
because actually posted this on social media last night. I
don't love seeing the host country not making the metal
around it. It takes a lot of air out of
the whole situation.
Speaker 3 (24:13):
So it's a bit of a bummer to Nazi Canada.
Speaker 1 (24:16):
I looked forward to a Canada USA matchup tonight.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
I am all go Usa.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
I cannot root harder for them right now going into
tonight's game and no disspetch a check ye.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
I just really wanted Canada and night One question in
here just the top on there too.
Speaker 4 (24:33):
Is this a good inflection point for the World Juniors
when you have newer teams coming up? You mentioned how
Michael Rabble poise for the checks in that we're getting
a different look at the semi finals, and then everyone
would have expected Canada, United States, Finland, Sweden to get
another team in. There's this good inflection point just for
(24:54):
the way we have to recalibrate how we.
Speaker 3 (24:56):
Look sometimes at the World Juniors.
Speaker 4 (24:57):
I know there was I think it was Latvia that
had a big They had a big win earlier in
the tournament and looked good doing it. There was there
have been newer countries coming up, so is this a
good time for us to reassess after the fact of
how we look at these and I think we see
it in the odds sometimes.
Speaker 1 (25:12):
Yeah, I will say Dan that I before the tournament,
I analyzed this US team and said it's probably the
best team they've ever put on the ice at the
World Juniors. And they have not had a walk through.
This is a very difficult tournament for them. This is
going to be a very tough game tonight. That just
shows how good this tournament has gotten. Latvia has been
(25:34):
probably the story of the tournament. They took the Swedes
right to the final buzzer. Yesterday they upset Canada in
a shootout with the shootout win LTFI or if you
look at them when I think one of the unique
things about this tournament, if you're seventeen or under, or
maybe it's under seventeen, you have to wear the full
face shield. And you looked at the lot Fians and
(25:56):
half their team felt like they had the full face
shields because they were so young. And that just shows
that the future of Locky as the World Junior Hockey
should be very strong.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
This is a team that I would expect. They got
their first ever two.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
Wins in a tournament this year, I would expect them
to have three wins. I expect them in the semifinal
within the next three years.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
One last thing, very quickly.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
We don't usually with our college hockey games have a
lot of prop bets and parlays. There are a ton
of them to look at. We can't get into them.
Do you have just some broad, quick advice on what
to do with some of those?
Speaker 3 (26:32):
Just stay the hell away, honestly, listen.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
And I know that people make a living out of
prop bets, but if you are not literally studying everything
about every player on both of the teams, don't better
prop bet prop bets.
Speaker 3 (26:48):
Can go a long way.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
They can really make things very profitable for you. I
don't like prop betting. It's just something I've avoided. It's
too random to me. Whatever it could be, first goalscorer,
number of shots and a period, number of goals in
a period, first goal in the first ten minutes, all
that stuff.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
Just stay away from me. You don't know.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
You are flipping a coin if you like to, if
you like to throw money out there at a fifty
to fifty flip.
Speaker 3 (27:16):
Throw money out there at it. Then you might as well.
Speaker 1 (27:19):
Just see if somebody at the corner of the street
will bet you five dollars on a heads or a tails,
because that's whey what prov betting is.
Speaker 3 (27:26):
Yeah, and it's worse. It's harder in hockey.
Speaker 4 (27:30):
Like you have a line chart that's got twelve forwards,
six defensemen, you're looking at eighteen. However, many guys are
on a more than that four times three yeah, twelve
yeah right, skaters.
Speaker 3 (27:42):
Yeah, And it's not like basketball.
Speaker 4 (27:45):
Where basketball, if you're betting a guy to get his
points and you're looking at the guys, say, are right
thirty plus points in the game thirty and a half.
If you're betting over thirty and a half, someone's going
to shoot the ball a lot on a team like
you're not if you're looking at a college basketball game
or a college an NBA game, rather who's getting the ball,
you don't know who's.
Speaker 3 (28:03):
Getting the puck for the shot on goal.
Speaker 4 (28:05):
In hockey, it's way harder to do for anytime goal scores.
Speaker 3 (28:08):
So I'm with you. I I would touch any of this, all.
Speaker 2 (28:12):
Right, So spend that money you would have put on
a prop on another sapping on that pizza.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
Get the real pizza and pat Robert Morris. There you go.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
We're gonna wrap up right there for Jim Connolly, for
Dan Rubin, im ed Trefsker.
Speaker 3 (28:29):
And this has been usc cho edge
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