March 7, 2025 • 30 mins
USCHO Edge hosts Jim Connelly (@jimmyconnelly), Dan Rubin (@DanRubin12) and Ed Trefzger (@EdTrefzger) look at futures for the six men's conference champions.
This episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division I Frozen Four, April 10 and 12 in St. Louis. Get your tickets now at ncaa.com/frozenfour
This episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division I Frozen Four, April 10 and 12 in St. Louis. Get your tickets now at ncaa.com/frozenfour
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Uscho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to us Echo Edge for Friday, March seventh, twenty
twenty five. This episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's
Division one Frozen four April tenth and twelfth in Saint Louis, Missouri.
Get your tickets now at NCAA dot com slash Frozen four.
I'm ed Trefskirl along with Jim Connolly and Dan Rubin,
(00:35):
and we're getting into conference tournament time. And one of
the things that DraftKings and maybe some other betting companies
set up is futures. And we've talked before about futures
for the national championship, but they have futures now for
who each of the six conference champions are going to be,
and we're going to go through those in alphabetle cool order.
(00:57):
We'll give our pick for who we think is going
to be the champion, and maybe a dark horse in
there too, and maybe let me shade it a little bit,
maybe not necessarily who we think is going to be
the champion, but who might be the best one to
pick for that Monetarily, Maybe you know that a champion's
not going to provide some great odds, but maybe you
want to pick somebody that has a really good chance
(01:20):
but could pay off for you.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Is that fair?
Speaker 4 (01:22):
Yeah, totally fair.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
I think that's how I approach a lot of futures
c at golf. I'm not usually looking to pick the favorite.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
Right that.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
To pick in a golf tournament, it's one of one
hundred and forty four, and in this it's one of
eight or one of eleven or something like that.
Speaker 4 (01:41):
It's one of seven in the case of the Big ten.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
But if you're picking the favorite, you're just not getting
a ton of value. Now, will that favorite win in
this case, I think it's probably better than fifty percent
of the time.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
The favorite probably does pretty well in their league.
Speaker 1 (01:55):
Turn I think that you really have to when you
factor in at dark course, you have to be thinking
about what their actual odds are.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Why don't we go to Atlantic Hockey America because they
are first in alphabetical order. And here's what we have
for futures. These are as of Thursday evening. And I'll
remind us of that when we get the Hockey East.
Holy Cross is plus one forty Sacred Heart plus one
eighty Bentley plus five hundred, Niagara plus eight hundred Army
(02:27):
Is plus two thousand, air Force plus five thousand, Canisius
plus seventy five hundred and also plus seventy five hundred
is American International.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
This is a conference that I don't want to say
always goes chop because it doesn't. But I do feel
like that the favorites usually get advanced pretty far in
this tournament. So I do like a team like Holy Cross.
I like a Sacred Heart to reach the final. If
I had to pick a dark horse in this though,
I'd probably go with Army at plus two thousand.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
That's really good value.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
They had a great second half of the year, basically
pulled themselves out of the cellar of this league, and
it brought themselves into a respectable place into that four
or five game. So I look at the Army at
plus two thousand. That's really good odds.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
The only thing with Atlanta Hockey is teams.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Right now, you if you didn't have a buye, you've
already won a game and you still have five more
wins you need to win this tournament.
Speaker 3 (03:27):
This is probably the toughest.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
Of the six postseason tournaments to win.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Yeah. I could go on and on about having it.
Speaker 5 (03:35):
Over four weekends and what it does emotionally and mentally
to what it requires mentally and emotionally for teams pick wise, ish, I'm.
Speaker 3 (03:44):
Not sure anybody's ever gonna think I'm ever gonna pick
against Bentley and anything.
Speaker 5 (03:48):
That's just and that goes to I've been talking about
with Boston College. That's that's just rule, Like why would
anyone make me try and do that? So I'm not
gonna make my pick because we all know that I
would probably wind up picking Bentley. And I've been calling
games there for fifteen years. And when I look at it, though,
here's the thing about the Atlanta Cocky Tournament, so it's
without even making a pick, without looking at a pick,
(04:10):
getting past the year first round is incredibly difficult.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
And I'm actually gonna use Bentley as my example.
Speaker 5 (04:16):
Bentley made it to the semi finals the first year
I was calling games in two thousand and nine, and
have not made it past the quarterfinal round in the
fifteen years or sixty there's going to be sixteen years
this year, and they played Canises in the in the quarterfinals,
and when I say, you look at them, like what
has Bentley done? There have been years when you finish
second and you don't make it. There have been years
(04:36):
when you finish fourth and you don't make it out
of the first year. If the other team that I'm
looking at because I think they can play inspired hockey
down the stretches, a c AIIC usually plays a big,
falt physical game and where it turns into getting through
the right matchups and navigating the matchups. Because the top
three seeds are Holy Cross, Sacred Heart, and Bentley. Ai
C draws Holy Cross will they usually play well against.
(05:00):
Then if you'r AIC, you go to the semi finals
and you're gonna play either a Sacred Heart or a Bentley.
To me, that lines up to send a C on
a potential run with a team that is playing some
pretty inspired hockey because frankly, there is no next week
they lose the entire programs over so plus seventy five
hundred you can do a lot worse on AIC. But
(05:24):
in terms of picking who I think is gonna win it,
I'm not gonna I'm not gonna layer that because we
all know who I'm probably gonna pick.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
So that's that's just not fair. That's like asking me
to pick my favorite pizza topic.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
And no, that's not fair a C. Yeah, I can
hear your argument for them. I think they're playing inspired,
but I don't think they're gonna get past holy Cross
in that round.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
I think it's holy Cross's league to lose.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
And I think the league championship is going to be
played in a Worcester. So that's who I would go with. Dan,
you had the opportunity to make the case for Bentley.
Bentley has had enormous goaltending counter Hansley what eight shutouts
this season? They passionately defense, yep, they can score. Their disciplined,
they're everything you need in a champion. I think you
(06:09):
can make a case there, and I'm going to go
with you.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Guys.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
Army would be my dark horse. They are playing great,
They're getting terrific goaltending, they move the puck well, they're physical,
and they have been surprised and delighted by the sophomore
defenseman Mac Gadowski, who is able to score.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
Let's go on to the Big ten.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Michigan State is plus one twenty, Minnesota is plus two fifty.
We have Ohio State at plus five fifty, Michigan at
plus seven hundred, Penn State is plus twelve hundred. Wisconsin
at plus five thousand and Notre Dame at plus seventy
five hundred.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
This is the one conference that winning the regular season
meets just so much you get that buy through now.
Speaker 4 (06:54):
Will people argue.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
That sometimes makes it tough for you're playing your first
place off game and it's a single elimination game in
the semifinals.
Speaker 4 (07:02):
That's tough. But I like Michigan State to get to
the Big Ten championship. Here.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
I still actually think that Minnesota is probably just barely
the better team. Does that mean that Minnesota would win
the Big Ten championship? No. All that said, I'm going
to pick them to win the Big Ten, and I
will I'm gonna go on a limit just go Penn
(07:29):
State as my dark horse here plus twelve hundred. They
come in. What a second half they had. I just
see them as being a really dominant team that can execute.
Now whether they do is the question. And it's again
a tough tournament to get through. You get through this
opening round, then it's single elimination, but getting through this
(07:53):
quarterfinal round is the toughest part.
Speaker 3 (07:55):
Yeah, I agree on Michigan State.
Speaker 5 (07:58):
At least getting to the semifinals with the buy is
a huge asset, so don't it's just where they're plus
one twenty. I don't love value if you're making a
future's bet on ever betting the favorite. When I come
to value, it's not even a dark horse. I actually
would go with Minnesota just because there's more value. There
is double the value. It's plus two to fifty, and
I don't think Minnesota is going to have that much
(08:18):
trouble getting through Notre Dame. They're going to have to
go into Michigan State to potentially win a championship.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
But I also don't think they might.
Speaker 5 (08:27):
Be getting into Michigan State to win a championship, and
there is a reason for it. And I'm picking Ohio
State as my dark horse here because Penn State still
has to get through Michigan and I think Michigan's a
very good team. Ohio State has to play Wisconsin. I
think if they get that momentum from the two games,
they can avoid the They're going to avoid Michigan State
(08:49):
until they get to the championship game, and so I
think if Ohio State can come out and then potentially
beat Minnesota in the semi finals, and I think that
they could easily, they go in and win this thing outright.
I think Ohio State's a team we're not talking enough about,
and I like them potentially to come out of this.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
And plus you're getting good, great value of what's by fifty.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
I really do think it's down to Michigan State or Minnesota.
But you mentioned Penn State. Of all the higher seeds
win in the tournament except for Penn State getting through Michigan,
then you'd have a Penn State Michigan State single elimination
game at mont Arena for the semi finals. And we
saw Penn State do very well at Mon a couple
(09:30):
of weeks ago. I like Penn State as the dark horse,
and I got to go with Michigan State as the
Big ten champion. But you know what, I like your
argument about value on Minnesota. Let's look at the CCHA.
This is the only league where the front runner has
a minus in the money line, and that's Minnesota State
(09:52):
at minus one ten.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Everybody else is pretty high.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
As you go through Augustana plus three fifty Sat Tom
plus five hundred, Michigan Tech plus seven hundred Bowling Green
plus twelve hundred, Lemigi State plus sixteen hundred Farris State
plus seventy five hundred and Lake Superior State plus ten thousand.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
Gimme Lake State, gimmi Lake State. No, what's ten thousand?
Speaker 4 (10:17):
Shore?
Speaker 3 (10:17):
Put a dollar down? You know what you can get
with that. No.
Speaker 5 (10:21):
Truthfully, I look at I don't like minus's on conference
championship futures or national championship futures.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
I don't like taking favorites.
Speaker 5 (10:31):
I also just don't see a path where the rest
of the CCHA right now is about to catch Minnesota State.
And this is just just one of those things. Every
number breaks Minnesota State's way goal ratio. They have the
best goals, best scoring offense, the best scoring defense because
(10:52):
they've played so many more games than Augustana. Like the
thirty seven goals allowed in conference players significantly better than
Augustana's thirty seven because they play doubled ten more games.
So I don't see a path where the rest of
the CCHA right now can take out Minnesota State. I
do as a complete dark course, maybe like the odds
(11:15):
on a Michigan Tech or a bowling game, or a
team that maybe has gone on these runs through the CCHA.
They have to play each other obviously for quarterfinal because
they might avoid Minnesota State until a single elimination championship.
If you can avoid playing your conference favorite until the
end in a single elimination, then it adds I think
(11:39):
value to where your number sits.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Yeah, listen, Minnesota State is such a favorite here you
can't really pick against them. But in the dark course scenario,
I like and maybe they don't feel like that dark
of a dark horse, but Saint Thomas give me any
Enrico Plasi coach team five wins in a row coming in.
I wanted to go with Michigan Tech just because of
(12:03):
the money, because there's a massive difference between plus five
hundred and well plus seven hundred. Maybe not a massive difference,
but the difference. And I thought that Michigan Tech was there.
They did not close the season strong. Three losses to close.
I just I don't have the confidence there. So I've
been surprised a couple of times pleasantly this year by
(12:25):
Saint Thomas.
Speaker 4 (12:26):
My dark horse gave me to Tommy's.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
Yeah, I gotta go with Minnesota State to win it all.
A big part of that is Alex Tracy and net
I'm gonna go one other direction on uh dark horse,
and that's Bowling Green. I think they've quietly put together
an okay season. They're able to shut teams down. I
(12:51):
would have said Augustana, but second in the league is
not really that much of a dark horse. But that
the numbers on that were in a plus three point fifty.
That is a that's a good value on that one,
So I might go with that. But yeah, I think
Minnesota State. It has taken no time at all for
(13:11):
Luke Strand to turn around the situation there. He was
left with an empty closet a little bit on the
first year in town and has really rejuvenated the Mavericks.
We're going to continue in just a moment with the
other three leagues as we look at futures. This episode
is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division one Frozen four
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Speaker 3 (14:13):
Let's go to the ECAC.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
They're gonna play single elimination to get down from from
twelve teams down to eight teams. The bottom eight will
play down to four, so we got twelve teams to
look at. Quinnipiac, the regular season champion is a plus
one seventy Clarkson is plus two to eighty Colgate plus
five point fifty Union plus seven hundred Cornell plus nine
(14:36):
hundred Dartmouth plus twelve hundred Harvard plus five thousand Brown
also plus five thousand Princeton plus seventy five hundred renssele
Er plus ten thousand, and Yale and Saint Lawrence both
plus fifteen thousand.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
Covering this league.
Speaker 5 (14:51):
Here's the thing about this about this particular tournament is
it never goes according to plan and bigatric because your
regular season champion, and as long as we've been around,
Quinnipiac has had to deal with this argument. Never wins
the conference tournament, and that is the biggest knock against Quinnipiac.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
They won a national championship, They've got more Cleary Cups
than they know what to do with.
Speaker 5 (15:17):
They can't win in Lake Placid, and sometimes they don't
even make it to Lake Placid, or I haven't won,
I don't want to say they can't. So this year
feels like the year because ECAC is so weak as
an overall conference, the Quinnipiac being the one team that
stands head and shoulders over everybody could get to a
series in Lake Placid. The problem with that is that
(15:39):
Clarkson quietly stuck up on them in the pairwise rankings
and drove it to the last week of the regular
season for the Cleary Cup. So even knowing unless Quinnipiac
turns back a bit of history here, I actually think
Clarkson win the league. And there it's taken the second
place team. It's a plus two to eighty. There's a
little more value there outside of those top two. This
(16:01):
might be the most wide open ECAC that I have
ever seen, and you could make a case that the
favorite to win it is also your dark horse, which
would be a team like Cornell because Cornell had no
health this year. They just started getting back to being healthy,
and there's because of that, they had to play in
the first round. Alf they don't get out of the
first round, it's a different story. But plus nine hundred,
(16:25):
I think you can make a case to go after Cornell.
A secondary dark horse for me would be Union because
Union has that buy and will play at home, and
I think getting to Lake Placid for them. Cornell has
to navigate getting out of the first round game, which
shouldn't be a problem, but they still have to.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
Yeah, I don't love picking a dark horse that has
to go an extra round over everybody, unless it's in
the Big ten, which is just obviously the champion champion
gets that first round by So that kind of key
shape from looking at Cornell. But that also as we've
watched Twinnipiac struggling Placid, there's always been another team there
(17:03):
that you say, oh, they could give them trouble, and
I guess that's Clarkson.
Speaker 4 (17:07):
In this case. They've they've given Quinnepiac a lot of
trouble this season.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
All that said, if there's a year that I feel
like Quinnipiac goes into Lake Placid if they.
Speaker 4 (17:19):
Get there, Assuming they get there, we're still two weeks.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
Away, but that lake that Quinnipiac would reach Lake Placid
as a really heavy favorite, this feels like it. I
feel like they've just them and Clarkson have just separated
themselves enough. Is Clarkson still maybe half a step behind? Yes,
So if I have to pick a champion, I almost
feel like I'm fucking the trend here. I'm gonna pick
(17:42):
Quarnipiac to win the ECAC. If I have to go
with a dark horse here, that's where it's getting a
little trickier, not very dark.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
I guess Colgate becomes.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
The team I'm gonna go with Quinnipiac on it. I
for one thing, when we talk of when we talk
about teams that can't do something in a certain place,
we have to remember the amount of turnover. And there's
half a dozen players still left from the national championship team,
so things go by and change pretty quickly. And I
(18:16):
also I also don't feel like Quinnipiac has been head
and shoulders above this year like they've been in other years.
It's come down to the last week, and it came
down to the last game for them to win the
league outright. I think this is a team that knows
it has to work hard. I like them and Clarkson both.
If I have to pick a dark horse, it's not
very far down the list, and granted it's been a
(18:38):
few months since I've seen them, but I really like
Colgate and I think they have the opportunity to play
spoiler there and move it to the NCAA tournament. So
I was going to pick a dark horse in that
it might be Colgate going to Hockey East.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Just a warning here, the numbers may have changed.
Speaker 2 (18:55):
We got the numbers before Thursday night's drubbing of Providence
by BU, a game that I guess was essentially over
in the first eight or nine minutes. But this is
what it looks like right now in Hockey East, and
it's all a single elimination tournament. Bc Is plus one
twenty five main Is plus three point fifty Providence plus
(19:16):
six hundred BU plus seven hundred Yukon Is plus nine
hundred UMass plus sixteen hundred U Mass Lowell plus two thousand,
Northeastern plus five thousand New Hampshire plus five thousand, Merrimack
plus five thousand and Vermont plus ten thousand.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
These are You're getting down to some really big numbers
when you get to Northeast un H, Merrimack and Vermont.
Speaker 4 (19:40):
Even Lowell, I think is just being shown some respect.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
From the front half of the season they had big
plus two thousand. I think they could be a little
bit wider on numbers. BC and may listen, they're the
class of this league right now. I don't just want
to anoint BC a champion like I probably did last year,
despite the fact that a.
Speaker 4 (20:01):
Lot of their numbers are the same.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
The one area that numbers have taken a step back
for Boston College was scoring offense.
Speaker 4 (20:09):
They just can't put up four a game. Nobody can.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
Last year's team was crazy and they did so I
think that's a big difference. They're a little bit more
of a line on the defense that said I love Maine.
I've seen Maine. They did get swept by Boston College
and they probably should have won Game one, had a
two goal lead in the third period.
Speaker 4 (20:32):
And lost that one.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
But I just saw I'm going to pick me, I think,
and then I'm going to go really far down the
list to get my dark course. I didn't see them
until probably January for the first time, and every time
I've seen them, they've impressed me.
Speaker 4 (20:48):
And that's you Mass.
Speaker 1 (20:50):
So I'm going to pick U Mass from the sixth seed.
That would be the lowest champion of all time. They'd
be matching Northeastern, which did I think back in two
thousand and seven. I want to say no, two thousand
and sixteen sixteen was the if they did it as
the number six seed. So if you Masks can go
(21:12):
to get on a run, that's really good value. I've
be' for that high plus sixteen hundred up there, so
you Mass would be I pick there.
Speaker 5 (21:21):
I'm gonna go completely off the beaten path here because
I this feels like a year in Hockey East where
the final winds up being two teams we didn't see
coming and I don't look Boston College is gonna be
number one seed in the tournament period, the national tournament
main is going to pressure them, at least this week.
(21:42):
I'll give BC credit the shootout, most important shootout of
the season. It beat Unhold a shootout, and now they
don't have to Now they still control their own destiny
going into the weekend for the number one seed, which
I think will make a difference when you get to
the garden and provided you get to the garden. And
I don't think though that BC, like you said, score
is down.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
They very good defense, very good goaltending.
Speaker 5 (22:03):
I just don't even not wanting to make a pick
or make or determine who might win the league.
Speaker 3 (22:12):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (22:12):
I just there's something about this league right now that
isn't that feels like it's too eep.
Speaker 3 (22:18):
So I don't even know who could win it.
Speaker 5 (22:20):
And even as I'm going through the numbers and trying
to process it, I don't want to say, oh, Main
will win it, or BC will win it, or Providence
will win it, because I could see everybody in the
top five or six winning it. So that's where I
feel like my pick would be my dark horse.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
Now here's the other thing. Is my dark horse.
Speaker 5 (22:37):
I'm going to go to Connecticut, who has played exceptionally
well the last month of the show of the season,
and even on Thursday Night regular season finale they beat
up on Vermont. I understand that they lost a shootout
to Boston University, but they hold wins over virtually everybody
the second half of the year, and while they haven't
(22:58):
played Boston Call College. They did beat Boston College. They
played him bat for a semester. So if I'm going
dark horse, and like I said, making a pick on this,
I'm trying to figure it out on the fly, and
it's just not really clicking for me anyway.
Speaker 3 (23:11):
I really like Connecticut as a dark horse in this league.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
I'm going to go with Maine, not because I think
that Maine is the favorite over Boston College, but at
plus three point fifty that would be a reasonable bet.
I also had Yukon marked down as my dark horse
the top four. I don't consider any of them dark horses.
Providence in bu or right up there, just a step
behind BC and Maine, but I can't see anybody below
(23:38):
Yukon really having that great a chance.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
I had.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Jim made a good case for UMass, but I'm going
to go with Yukon also, And that takes us to
the NCHC. It's the final year of the Frozen face
Off in Saint Paul, so that means a first round
best of three and then single elimination in the semis
and for the league championship. And in that one, Western
Michigan has run away with it. The Broncos are a
(24:04):
plus one thirty five, Denver plus two to seventy five,
Arizona State plus five hundred North Dakota plus eight hundred
Omaha plus twelve hundred Colorado College plus sixteen hundred Saint
Cloud State plus four thousand in Minnesota Duluth plus five
thousand already eliminated with Miami is they will only send
eight teams to the tournament.
Speaker 1 (24:26):
Yeah, and you know, we don't know exactly where everybody's
going to finish, and we don't know the pairings in
this league. Yet they still have two more games. Most
teams have two more games to play, so things could shift.
I think it's it says something that Denver is plus
two seventy five despite the fact that as we sit
here on a Friday morning recording this, they sit tied
(24:51):
for fourth place. So I think it's when you look
at this NCAC, there's when you think of experience being
what plays in the postseason, there's not a lot of experience.
So Denver, I get it, You're going because they made
him run one national championship and did to an impressive faction,
(25:12):
You're gonna push them up despite the fact that they're
probably gonna be a fourth or fifth place team. All
that said, Western, they're a good favorite, not a good price,
a good favorite that they've played really consistently all season.
Speaker 4 (25:28):
Just that say, there's just no experience.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
So this is gonna sound crazy, but my pick and
dark horse is not one that a lot of people
would pick. I'm gonna go with North Dakota to win
the championship, and I'm also gonna go with North Dakota
as my dark horse to win the championship.
Speaker 5 (25:48):
It's not fake. You stole my pick. You know that
was gonna be my pick, and you stole my pick.
I was gonna take North Dakota in North Dakota as
my dark horse.
Speaker 3 (25:57):
That was good.
Speaker 6 (25:57):
I thought I was gonna be like for like hipster
by making that yeah industry now yeah yeah, oh come on.
And it goes back to my Lake State pick of
being like, hey, it's gonna be funny when this happened. No, Like,
I actually really like how North Dakota's played the second
half of the year, and specifically they've beaten teams that
(26:19):
they've beat.
Speaker 5 (26:21):
They beat Denver, they beat Western, they swept the Loop,
they beat Colorado College, they beat Saint Cloud. They haven't
really won well on Fridays, but the fact that they've
been able, but that doesn't really matter in the playoffs
as much. It's a one either a one game or
best of three in those situations, like for all these
different leagues, So all of the factors that we talk
(26:43):
about during the regular season do not play out in
the playoffs. The things that we talk about when we
bring up a matchup about winning on Friday and not
winning on Saturday, you throw those out the window when
it comes to a playoff game. I've really like North
Dakota because North Dakota can beat everybody and have enough
to make it to the finish. So I think they
(27:04):
can win a best of three even if they lose
the first game and then pick up momentum and get
their way in all together, I really like them.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
I'm going to go off the board a little bit
with this one. I am going to say the one
that I would pick as the winner, and this is
a winner in dark horse territory is Arizona State. And
I'll tell you why they finished their regular season. They
finish their regular season, they have nineteen wins, yet they
sit at number sixteen in the pairwise. Say they win
(27:32):
two out of three games and it goes to a
third game, so they have two wins and a loss
in the first round. They still may be battling to
get into the NCAA tournament, and they may be in
a position where it's coming down to a semi final
or even a final game to get them in. So
I just see them as having so much that they
have to play for. They may not have a backup
(27:56):
on that one. And I'm going to throw in as
a dark horse on this one just because they've played
so well this season and may end up with home
ice depending on how things play out. And that's Omaha.
I like Omaha this year. They have snuck up on everybody.
They've played very well. In some long term teams that
you would expect to be in the top four are
(28:16):
going to be battling for that last position.
Speaker 3 (28:18):
So I do like the Mavericks.
Speaker 5 (28:20):
I have a question for you guys on this, which
is in some of these leagues, does it feel more
frequently this year that dark horses for us are better
suited for the postseason than maybe years past. I feel
like we look at some of these teams and, like
the NCHC, that there are if there are six to
(28:41):
seven teams that we want to look at. All six
seven of them could probably make it to the finals.
Like that is, there are a lot of good college
hockey teams that I think you can look at and
find a lot of value on right now.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
Yeah, I think so. I think you could make a
case for Colorado College. They started well, had some doldrums
in the middle. A good finish could do it for them.
Speaker 4 (29:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
I agree. We have avoided the P word that's parodied.
There's just so much talent out there. One great night
by a goaltender can be the whole difference, or one
bad five minute major can be the whole difference. There
is no sport, I am told, there's no sport with
(29:24):
more variability and unpredictability than hockey. Starting with the puck,
which from a physics standpoint, has so many variables, not
only different vectors on it.
Speaker 3 (29:36):
About how warm it is, how cold it is, how.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
Cold the ice is, how it hits off a stick,
how it hits off the tape, how it bounces off
of one side or the other of a shin pad.
You can't predict it. That's what makes it so much fun,
and that's what makes it why we're often wrong?
Speaker 1 (29:55):
Who knew that this was going to turn into an
episode of Professor Proton?
Speaker 3 (30:00):
With that, we'll wrap up.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
This episode has been sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division.
One Frozen four April tenth and twelfth in Saint Louis.
Get your tickets now at NCAA dot com. Slash Frozen
four for Jim Connolly, for Dan Rubin, I'm ed Trefsker
And this has been us C h O Edge
Uscho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to us Echo Edge for Friday, March seventh, twenty
twenty five. This episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's
Division one Frozen four April tenth and twelfth in Saint Louis, Missouri.
Get your tickets now at NCAA dot com slash Frozen four.
I'm ed Trefskirl along with Jim Connolly and Dan Rubin,
(00:35):
and we're getting into conference tournament time. And one of
the things that DraftKings and maybe some other betting companies
set up is futures. And we've talked before about futures
for the national championship, but they have futures now for
who each of the six conference champions are going to be,
and we're going to go through those in alphabetle cool order.
(00:57):
We'll give our pick for who we think is going
to be the champion, and maybe a dark horse in
there too, and maybe let me shade it a little bit,
maybe not necessarily who we think is going to be
the champion, but who might be the best one to
pick for that Monetarily, Maybe you know that a champion's
not going to provide some great odds, but maybe you
want to pick somebody that has a really good chance
(01:20):
but could pay off for you.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Is that fair?
Speaker 4 (01:22):
Yeah, totally fair.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
I think that's how I approach a lot of futures
c at golf. I'm not usually looking to pick the favorite.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
Right that.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
To pick in a golf tournament, it's one of one
hundred and forty four, and in this it's one of
eight or one of eleven or something like that.
Speaker 4 (01:41):
It's one of seven in the case of the Big ten.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
But if you're picking the favorite, you're just not getting
a ton of value. Now, will that favorite win in
this case, I think it's probably better than fifty percent
of the time.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
The favorite probably does pretty well in their league.
Speaker 1 (01:55):
Turn I think that you really have to when you
factor in at dark course, you have to be thinking
about what their actual odds are.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Why don't we go to Atlantic Hockey America because they
are first in alphabetical order. And here's what we have
for futures. These are as of Thursday evening. And I'll
remind us of that when we get the Hockey East.
Holy Cross is plus one forty Sacred Heart plus one
eighty Bentley plus five hundred, Niagara plus eight hundred Army
(02:27):
Is plus two thousand, air Force plus five thousand, Canisius
plus seventy five hundred and also plus seventy five hundred
is American International.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
This is a conference that I don't want to say
always goes chop because it doesn't. But I do feel
like that the favorites usually get advanced pretty far in
this tournament. So I do like a team like Holy Cross.
I like a Sacred Heart to reach the final. If
I had to pick a dark horse in this though,
I'd probably go with Army at plus two thousand.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
That's really good value.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
They had a great second half of the year, basically
pulled themselves out of the cellar of this league, and
it brought themselves into a respectable place into that four
or five game. So I look at the Army at
plus two thousand. That's really good odds.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
The only thing with Atlanta Hockey is teams.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Right now, you if you didn't have a buye, you've
already won a game and you still have five more
wins you need to win this tournament.
Speaker 3 (03:27):
This is probably the toughest.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
Of the six postseason tournaments to win.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Yeah. I could go on and on about having it.
Speaker 5 (03:35):
Over four weekends and what it does emotionally and mentally
to what it requires mentally and emotionally for teams pick wise, ish, I'm.
Speaker 3 (03:44):
Not sure anybody's ever gonna think I'm ever gonna pick
against Bentley and anything.
Speaker 5 (03:48):
That's just and that goes to I've been talking about
with Boston College. That's that's just rule, Like why would
anyone make me try and do that? So I'm not
gonna make my pick because we all know that I
would probably wind up picking Bentley. And I've been calling
games there for fifteen years. And when I look at it, though,
here's the thing about the Atlanta Cocky Tournament, so it's
without even making a pick, without looking at a pick,
(04:10):
getting past the year first round is incredibly difficult.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
And I'm actually gonna use Bentley as my example.
Speaker 5 (04:16):
Bentley made it to the semi finals the first year
I was calling games in two thousand and nine, and
have not made it past the quarterfinal round in the
fifteen years or sixty there's going to be sixteen years
this year, and they played Canises in the in the quarterfinals,
and when I say, you look at them, like what
has Bentley done? There have been years when you finish
second and you don't make it. There have been years
(04:36):
when you finish fourth and you don't make it out
of the first year. If the other team that I'm
looking at because I think they can play inspired hockey
down the stretches, a c AIIC usually plays a big,
falt physical game and where it turns into getting through
the right matchups and navigating the matchups. Because the top
three seeds are Holy Cross, Sacred Heart, and Bentley. Ai
C draws Holy Cross will they usually play well against.
(05:00):
Then if you'r AIC, you go to the semi finals
and you're gonna play either a Sacred Heart or a Bentley.
To me, that lines up to send a C on
a potential run with a team that is playing some
pretty inspired hockey because frankly, there is no next week
they lose the entire programs over so plus seventy five
hundred you can do a lot worse on AIC. But
(05:24):
in terms of picking who I think is gonna win it,
I'm not gonna I'm not gonna layer that because we
all know who I'm probably gonna pick.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
So that's that's just not fair. That's like asking me
to pick my favorite pizza topic.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
And no, that's not fair a C. Yeah, I can
hear your argument for them. I think they're playing inspired,
but I don't think they're gonna get past holy Cross
in that round.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
I think it's holy Cross's league to lose.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
And I think the league championship is going to be
played in a Worcester. So that's who I would go with. Dan,
you had the opportunity to make the case for Bentley.
Bentley has had enormous goaltending counter Hansley what eight shutouts
this season? They passionately defense, yep, they can score. Their disciplined,
they're everything you need in a champion. I think you
(06:09):
can make a case there, and I'm going to go
with you.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Guys.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
Army would be my dark horse. They are playing great,
They're getting terrific goaltending, they move the puck well, they're physical,
and they have been surprised and delighted by the sophomore
defenseman Mac Gadowski, who is able to score.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
Let's go on to the Big ten.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Michigan State is plus one twenty, Minnesota is plus two fifty.
We have Ohio State at plus five fifty, Michigan at
plus seven hundred, Penn State is plus twelve hundred. Wisconsin
at plus five thousand and Notre Dame at plus seventy
five hundred.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
This is the one conference that winning the regular season
meets just so much you get that buy through now.
Speaker 4 (06:54):
Will people argue.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
That sometimes makes it tough for you're playing your first
place off game and it's a single elimination game in
the semifinals.
Speaker 4 (07:02):
That's tough. But I like Michigan State to get to
the Big Ten championship. Here.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
I still actually think that Minnesota is probably just barely
the better team. Does that mean that Minnesota would win
the Big Ten championship? No. All that said, I'm going
to pick them to win the Big Ten, and I
will I'm gonna go on a limit just go Penn
(07:29):
State as my dark horse here plus twelve hundred. They
come in. What a second half they had. I just
see them as being a really dominant team that can execute.
Now whether they do is the question. And it's again
a tough tournament to get through. You get through this
opening round, then it's single elimination, but getting through this
(07:53):
quarterfinal round is the toughest part.
Speaker 3 (07:55):
Yeah, I agree on Michigan State.
Speaker 5 (07:58):
At least getting to the semifinals with the buy is
a huge asset, so don't it's just where they're plus
one twenty. I don't love value if you're making a
future's bet on ever betting the favorite. When I come
to value, it's not even a dark horse. I actually
would go with Minnesota just because there's more value. There
is double the value. It's plus two to fifty, and
I don't think Minnesota is going to have that much
(08:18):
trouble getting through Notre Dame. They're going to have to
go into Michigan State to potentially win a championship.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
But I also don't think they might.
Speaker 5 (08:27):
Be getting into Michigan State to win a championship, and
there is a reason for it. And I'm picking Ohio
State as my dark horse here because Penn State still
has to get through Michigan and I think Michigan's a
very good team. Ohio State has to play Wisconsin. I
think if they get that momentum from the two games,
they can avoid the They're going to avoid Michigan State
(08:49):
until they get to the championship game, and so I
think if Ohio State can come out and then potentially
beat Minnesota in the semi finals, and I think that
they could easily, they go in and win this thing outright.
I think Ohio State's a team we're not talking enough about,
and I like them potentially to come out of this.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
And plus you're getting good, great value of what's by fifty.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
I really do think it's down to Michigan State or Minnesota.
But you mentioned Penn State. Of all the higher seeds
win in the tournament except for Penn State getting through Michigan,
then you'd have a Penn State Michigan State single elimination
game at mont Arena for the semi finals. And we
saw Penn State do very well at Mon a couple
(09:30):
of weeks ago. I like Penn State as the dark horse,
and I got to go with Michigan State as the
Big ten champion. But you know what, I like your
argument about value on Minnesota. Let's look at the CCHA.
This is the only league where the front runner has
a minus in the money line, and that's Minnesota State
(09:52):
at minus one ten.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Everybody else is pretty high.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
As you go through Augustana plus three fifty Sat Tom
plus five hundred, Michigan Tech plus seven hundred Bowling Green
plus twelve hundred, Lemigi State plus sixteen hundred Farris State
plus seventy five hundred and Lake Superior State plus ten thousand.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
Gimme Lake State, gimmi Lake State. No, what's ten thousand?
Speaker 4 (10:17):
Shore?
Speaker 3 (10:17):
Put a dollar down? You know what you can get
with that. No.
Speaker 5 (10:21):
Truthfully, I look at I don't like minus's on conference
championship futures or national championship futures.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
I don't like taking favorites.
Speaker 5 (10:31):
I also just don't see a path where the rest
of the CCHA right now is about to catch Minnesota State.
And this is just just one of those things. Every
number breaks Minnesota State's way goal ratio. They have the
best goals, best scoring offense, the best scoring defense because
(10:52):
they've played so many more games than Augustana. Like the
thirty seven goals allowed in conference players significantly better than
Augustana's thirty seven because they play doubled ten more games.
So I don't see a path where the rest of
the CCHA right now can take out Minnesota State. I
do as a complete dark course, maybe like the odds
(11:15):
on a Michigan Tech or a bowling game, or a
team that maybe has gone on these runs through the CCHA.
They have to play each other obviously for quarterfinal because
they might avoid Minnesota State until a single elimination championship.
If you can avoid playing your conference favorite until the
end in a single elimination, then it adds I think
(11:39):
value to where your number sits.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Yeah, listen, Minnesota State is such a favorite here you
can't really pick against them. But in the dark course scenario,
I like and maybe they don't feel like that dark
of a dark horse, but Saint Thomas give me any
Enrico Plasi coach team five wins in a row coming in.
I wanted to go with Michigan Tech just because of
(12:03):
the money, because there's a massive difference between plus five
hundred and well plus seven hundred. Maybe not a massive difference,
but the difference. And I thought that Michigan Tech was there.
They did not close the season strong. Three losses to close.
I just I don't have the confidence there. So I've
been surprised a couple of times pleasantly this year by
(12:25):
Saint Thomas.
Speaker 4 (12:26):
My dark horse gave me to Tommy's.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
Yeah, I gotta go with Minnesota State to win it all.
A big part of that is Alex Tracy and net
I'm gonna go one other direction on uh dark horse,
and that's Bowling Green. I think they've quietly put together
an okay season. They're able to shut teams down. I
(12:51):
would have said Augustana, but second in the league is
not really that much of a dark horse. But that
the numbers on that were in a plus three point fifty.
That is a that's a good value on that one,
So I might go with that. But yeah, I think
Minnesota State. It has taken no time at all for
(13:11):
Luke Strand to turn around the situation there. He was
left with an empty closet a little bit on the
first year in town and has really rejuvenated the Mavericks.
We're going to continue in just a moment with the
other three leagues as we look at futures. This episode
is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division one Frozen four
(13:33):
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Speaker 3 (14:13):
Let's go to the ECAC.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
They're gonna play single elimination to get down from from
twelve teams down to eight teams. The bottom eight will
play down to four, so we got twelve teams to
look at. Quinnipiac, the regular season champion is a plus
one seventy Clarkson is plus two to eighty Colgate plus
five point fifty Union plus seven hundred Cornell plus nine
(14:36):
hundred Dartmouth plus twelve hundred Harvard plus five thousand Brown
also plus five thousand Princeton plus seventy five hundred renssele
Er plus ten thousand, and Yale and Saint Lawrence both
plus fifteen thousand.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
Covering this league.
Speaker 5 (14:51):
Here's the thing about this about this particular tournament is
it never goes according to plan and bigatric because your
regular season champion, and as long as we've been around,
Quinnipiac has had to deal with this argument. Never wins
the conference tournament, and that is the biggest knock against Quinnipiac.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
They won a national championship, They've got more Cleary Cups
than they know what to do with.
Speaker 5 (15:17):
They can't win in Lake Placid, and sometimes they don't
even make it to Lake Placid, or I haven't won,
I don't want to say they can't. So this year
feels like the year because ECAC is so weak as
an overall conference, the Quinnipiac being the one team that
stands head and shoulders over everybody could get to a
series in Lake Placid. The problem with that is that
(15:39):
Clarkson quietly stuck up on them in the pairwise rankings
and drove it to the last week of the regular
season for the Cleary Cup. So even knowing unless Quinnipiac
turns back a bit of history here, I actually think
Clarkson win the league. And there it's taken the second
place team. It's a plus two to eighty. There's a
little more value there outside of those top two. This
(16:01):
might be the most wide open ECAC that I have
ever seen, and you could make a case that the
favorite to win it is also your dark horse, which
would be a team like Cornell because Cornell had no
health this year. They just started getting back to being healthy,
and there's because of that, they had to play in
the first round. Alf they don't get out of the
first round, it's a different story. But plus nine hundred,
(16:25):
I think you can make a case to go after Cornell.
A secondary dark horse for me would be Union because
Union has that buy and will play at home, and
I think getting to Lake Placid for them. Cornell has
to navigate getting out of the first round game, which
shouldn't be a problem, but they still have to.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
Yeah, I don't love picking a dark horse that has
to go an extra round over everybody, unless it's in
the Big ten, which is just obviously the champion champion
gets that first round by So that kind of key
shape from looking at Cornell. But that also as we've
watched Twinnipiac struggling Placid, there's always been another team there
(17:03):
that you say, oh, they could give them trouble, and
I guess that's Clarkson.
Speaker 4 (17:07):
In this case. They've they've given Quinnepiac a lot of
trouble this season.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
All that said, if there's a year that I feel
like Quinnipiac goes into Lake Placid if they.
Speaker 4 (17:19):
Get there, Assuming they get there, we're still two weeks.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
Away, but that lake that Quinnipiac would reach Lake Placid
as a really heavy favorite, this feels like it. I
feel like they've just them and Clarkson have just separated
themselves enough. Is Clarkson still maybe half a step behind? Yes,
So if I have to pick a champion, I almost
feel like I'm fucking the trend here. I'm gonna pick
(17:42):
Quarnipiac to win the ECAC. If I have to go
with a dark horse here, that's where it's getting a
little trickier, not very dark.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
I guess Colgate becomes.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
The team I'm gonna go with Quinnipiac on it. I
for one thing, when we talk of when we talk
about teams that can't do something in a certain place,
we have to remember the amount of turnover. And there's
half a dozen players still left from the national championship team,
so things go by and change pretty quickly. And I
(18:16):
also I also don't feel like Quinnipiac has been head
and shoulders above this year like they've been in other years.
It's come down to the last week, and it came
down to the last game for them to win the
league outright. I think this is a team that knows
it has to work hard. I like them and Clarkson both.
If I have to pick a dark horse, it's not
very far down the list, and granted it's been a
(18:38):
few months since I've seen them, but I really like
Colgate and I think they have the opportunity to play
spoiler there and move it to the NCAA tournament. So
I was going to pick a dark horse in that
it might be Colgate going to Hockey East.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Just a warning here, the numbers may have changed.
Speaker 2 (18:55):
We got the numbers before Thursday night's drubbing of Providence
by BU, a game that I guess was essentially over
in the first eight or nine minutes. But this is
what it looks like right now in Hockey East, and
it's all a single elimination tournament. Bc Is plus one
twenty five main Is plus three point fifty Providence plus
(19:16):
six hundred BU plus seven hundred Yukon Is plus nine
hundred UMass plus sixteen hundred U Mass Lowell plus two thousand,
Northeastern plus five thousand New Hampshire plus five thousand, Merrimack
plus five thousand and Vermont plus ten thousand.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
These are You're getting down to some really big numbers
when you get to Northeast un H, Merrimack and Vermont.
Speaker 4 (19:40):
Even Lowell, I think is just being shown some respect.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
From the front half of the season they had big
plus two thousand. I think they could be a little
bit wider on numbers. BC and may listen, they're the
class of this league right now. I don't just want
to anoint BC a champion like I probably did last year,
despite the fact that a.
Speaker 4 (20:01):
Lot of their numbers are the same.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
The one area that numbers have taken a step back
for Boston College was scoring offense.
Speaker 4 (20:09):
They just can't put up four a game. Nobody can.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
Last year's team was crazy and they did so I
think that's a big difference. They're a little bit more
of a line on the defense that said I love Maine.
I've seen Maine. They did get swept by Boston College
and they probably should have won Game one, had a
two goal lead in the third period.
Speaker 4 (20:32):
And lost that one.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
But I just saw I'm going to pick me, I think,
and then I'm going to go really far down the
list to get my dark course. I didn't see them
until probably January for the first time, and every time
I've seen them, they've impressed me.
Speaker 4 (20:48):
And that's you Mass.
Speaker 1 (20:50):
So I'm going to pick U Mass from the sixth seed.
That would be the lowest champion of all time. They'd
be matching Northeastern, which did I think back in two
thousand and seven. I want to say no, two thousand
and sixteen sixteen was the if they did it as
the number six seed. So if you Masks can go
(21:12):
to get on a run, that's really good value. I've
be' for that high plus sixteen hundred up there, so
you Mass would be I pick there.
Speaker 5 (21:21):
I'm gonna go completely off the beaten path here because
I this feels like a year in Hockey East where
the final winds up being two teams we didn't see
coming and I don't look Boston College is gonna be
number one seed in the tournament period, the national tournament
main is going to pressure them, at least this week.
(21:42):
I'll give BC credit the shootout, most important shootout of
the season. It beat Unhold a shootout, and now they
don't have to Now they still control their own destiny
going into the weekend for the number one seed, which
I think will make a difference when you get to
the garden and provided you get to the garden. And
I don't think though that BC, like you said, score
is down.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
They very good defense, very good goaltending.
Speaker 5 (22:03):
I just don't even not wanting to make a pick
or make or determine who might win the league.
Speaker 3 (22:12):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (22:12):
I just there's something about this league right now that
isn't that feels like it's too eep.
Speaker 3 (22:18):
So I don't even know who could win it.
Speaker 5 (22:20):
And even as I'm going through the numbers and trying
to process it, I don't want to say, oh, Main
will win it, or BC will win it, or Providence
will win it, because I could see everybody in the
top five or six winning it. So that's where I
feel like my pick would be my dark horse.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
Now here's the other thing. Is my dark horse.
Speaker 5 (22:37):
I'm going to go to Connecticut, who has played exceptionally
well the last month of the show of the season,
and even on Thursday Night regular season finale they beat
up on Vermont. I understand that they lost a shootout
to Boston University, but they hold wins over virtually everybody
the second half of the year, and while they haven't
(22:58):
played Boston Call College. They did beat Boston College. They
played him bat for a semester. So if I'm going
dark horse, and like I said, making a pick on this,
I'm trying to figure it out on the fly, and
it's just not really clicking for me anyway.
Speaker 3 (23:11):
I really like Connecticut as a dark horse in this league.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
I'm going to go with Maine, not because I think
that Maine is the favorite over Boston College, but at
plus three point fifty that would be a reasonable bet.
I also had Yukon marked down as my dark horse
the top four. I don't consider any of them dark horses.
Providence in bu or right up there, just a step
behind BC and Maine, but I can't see anybody below
(23:38):
Yukon really having that great a chance.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
I had.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Jim made a good case for UMass, but I'm going
to go with Yukon also, And that takes us to
the NCHC. It's the final year of the Frozen face
Off in Saint Paul, so that means a first round
best of three and then single elimination in the semis
and for the league championship. And in that one, Western
Michigan has run away with it. The Broncos are a
(24:04):
plus one thirty five, Denver plus two to seventy five,
Arizona State plus five hundred North Dakota plus eight hundred
Omaha plus twelve hundred Colorado College plus sixteen hundred Saint
Cloud State plus four thousand in Minnesota Duluth plus five
thousand already eliminated with Miami is they will only send
eight teams to the tournament.
Speaker 1 (24:26):
Yeah, and you know, we don't know exactly where everybody's
going to finish, and we don't know the pairings in
this league. Yet they still have two more games. Most
teams have two more games to play, so things could shift.
I think it's it says something that Denver is plus
two seventy five despite the fact that as we sit
here on a Friday morning recording this, they sit tied
(24:51):
for fourth place. So I think it's when you look
at this NCAC, there's when you think of experience being
what plays in the postseason, there's not a lot of experience.
So Denver, I get it, You're going because they made
him run one national championship and did to an impressive faction,
(25:12):
You're gonna push them up despite the fact that they're
probably gonna be a fourth or fifth place team. All
that said, Western, they're a good favorite, not a good price,
a good favorite that they've played really consistently all season.
Speaker 4 (25:28):
Just that say, there's just no experience.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
So this is gonna sound crazy, but my pick and
dark horse is not one that a lot of people
would pick. I'm gonna go with North Dakota to win
the championship, and I'm also gonna go with North Dakota
as my dark horse to win the championship.
Speaker 5 (25:48):
It's not fake. You stole my pick. You know that
was gonna be my pick, and you stole my pick.
I was gonna take North Dakota in North Dakota as
my dark horse.
Speaker 3 (25:57):
That was good.
Speaker 6 (25:57):
I thought I was gonna be like for like hipster
by making that yeah industry now yeah yeah, oh come on.
And it goes back to my Lake State pick of
being like, hey, it's gonna be funny when this happened. No, Like,
I actually really like how North Dakota's played the second
half of the year, and specifically they've beaten teams that
(26:19):
they've beat.
Speaker 5 (26:21):
They beat Denver, they beat Western, they swept the Loop,
they beat Colorado College, they beat Saint Cloud. They haven't
really won well on Fridays, but the fact that they've
been able, but that doesn't really matter in the playoffs
as much. It's a one either a one game or
best of three in those situations, like for all these
different leagues, So all of the factors that we talk
(26:43):
about during the regular season do not play out in
the playoffs. The things that we talk about when we
bring up a matchup about winning on Friday and not
winning on Saturday, you throw those out the window when
it comes to a playoff game. I've really like North
Dakota because North Dakota can beat everybody and have enough
to make it to the finish. So I think they
(27:04):
can win a best of three even if they lose
the first game and then pick up momentum and get
their way in all together, I really like them.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
I'm going to go off the board a little bit
with this one. I am going to say the one
that I would pick as the winner, and this is
a winner in dark horse territory is Arizona State. And
I'll tell you why they finished their regular season. They
finish their regular season, they have nineteen wins, yet they
sit at number sixteen in the pairwise. Say they win
(27:32):
two out of three games and it goes to a
third game, so they have two wins and a loss
in the first round. They still may be battling to
get into the NCAA tournament, and they may be in
a position where it's coming down to a semi final
or even a final game to get them in. So
I just see them as having so much that they
have to play for. They may not have a backup
(27:56):
on that one. And I'm going to throw in as
a dark horse on this one just because they've played
so well this season and may end up with home
ice depending on how things play out. And that's Omaha.
I like Omaha this year. They have snuck up on everybody.
They've played very well. In some long term teams that
you would expect to be in the top four are
(28:16):
going to be battling for that last position.
Speaker 3 (28:18):
So I do like the Mavericks.
Speaker 5 (28:20):
I have a question for you guys on this, which
is in some of these leagues, does it feel more
frequently this year that dark horses for us are better
suited for the postseason than maybe years past. I feel
like we look at some of these teams and, like
the NCHC, that there are if there are six to
(28:41):
seven teams that we want to look at. All six
seven of them could probably make it to the finals.
Like that is, there are a lot of good college
hockey teams that I think you can look at and
find a lot of value on right now.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
Yeah, I think so. I think you could make a
case for Colorado College. They started well, had some doldrums
in the middle. A good finish could do it for them.
Speaker 4 (29:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
I agree. We have avoided the P word that's parodied.
There's just so much talent out there. One great night
by a goaltender can be the whole difference, or one
bad five minute major can be the whole difference. There
is no sport, I am told, there's no sport with
(29:24):
more variability and unpredictability than hockey. Starting with the puck,
which from a physics standpoint, has so many variables, not
only different vectors on it.
Speaker 3 (29:36):
About how warm it is, how cold it is, how.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
Cold the ice is, how it hits off a stick,
how it hits off the tape, how it bounces off
of one side or the other of a shin pad.
You can't predict it. That's what makes it so much fun,
and that's what makes it why we're often wrong?
Speaker 1 (29:55):
Who knew that this was going to turn into an
episode of Professor Proton?
Speaker 3 (30:00):
With that, we'll wrap up.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
This episode has been sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division.
One Frozen four April tenth and twelfth in Saint Louis.
Get your tickets now at NCAA dot com. Slash Frozen
four for Jim Connolly, for Dan Rubin, I'm ed Trefsker
And this has been us C h O Edge
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