November 8, 2024 • 33 mins
USCHO Edge hosts Jim Connelly (@jimmyconnelly), Dan Rubin (@DanRubin12) and Ed Trefzger (@EdTrefzger) look at money lines and over/under for five games (plus our "pizza money" game) on November 8, 2024:
- Notre Dame +190 @ Michigan -250; over/under 6.5
- Ohio State +200 @ Michigan State -270; o/u 5.5
- Maine +165 @ Boston College -215; o/u 5.5
- Arizona State +135 @ Colorado College -175; o/u 5.5
- North Dakota -195 @ Minnesota Duluth +150; o/u 6.5
- UMass Lowell +260 @ Boston University -360; o/u 6.5
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to usccho Edge for Friday, November eighth, twenty twenty four.
I'm ed Trefskier alongside Jim Connelly and Dan Rubin. Each
week we look at money lines and over under in
selected games, and one of the games we selected last
week was North Dakota at Cornell. Now we're not using
this as an excuse, but we didn't know until after
(00:35):
we recorded how injury riddled North Dakota was. But Jim
and I both expressed some concerns about it being Cornell's
first game and maybe being a little rusty or a
little sloppy. And Dan Rubin, who covers the ECAC like
a blanket.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Knew we were wrong.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Knew that Mike Schaeffer's team would be all excited. And Dan,
we needed to give you about forty five seconds to gloat.
I'll just say one thing. I'll say one thing.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
You listen to me.
Speaker 4 (01:09):
You need to listen to me more if people people
just need to listen to me when I talk about
these things. And I am going to take those forty seconds.
I'm gonna take that nice inhale smells like victory. That yep,
still smells like victory. Go big Red. Give my regards
to Davy. There's the reason why I covered Cordell this
week for the us cho Ecac column. And if anyone
(01:32):
needs me, I'm gonna get all of my pics wrong
this week.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
Yeah, I listen. I congratulations on getting one right. Finally,
I do have concern if you tell too many people
to listen to you, that people will start bankrupting themselves.
Speaker 4 (01:50):
Be very careful, that's all I'm gonna say. Hey, who
had Wisconsin last year? Wisconsin plus whatever it was last year.
That's I'm good for one of these a year. Good
for one of these a year. I don't remember the
Wisconsin one. So that's part of life.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
All right. Why don't we jump into this week's games.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
We've got a couple in the Big ten, a couple
in NCCHC, plus a couple in Hockey East, one of
which is our pizza money, and I think we'll start
with a big ten. Notre Dame is at Michigan. Over
under on this one is six and a half. Notre
Dame is plus one ninety and Michigan is minus two fifty.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
After Michigan's weekend last week, swoopeping Boston University.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
On the road.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
Now they go back home, they get Notre Dame. I
guess I'm not surprised at this line. Do you sweep
the number three team in the country, You're going to
be a favorite.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
For a little while now I don't.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
I guess the bigger thing for me is I don't
know what Notre Dame is yet.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
We I think we're starting to learn.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
Michigan's really good, and they have a power play right
now that is just lethal, and if they keep clicking
at the rate they are, that's a very That is
a team you cannot take penalties against. B You got
into bad penalty trouble on Friday night, end up giving
up five I think four of them were on the
(03:16):
power play. And then the next night, be you what
you'd expect a J. Pandolpho team to do. They stayed
absolutely disciplined. They took just one penalty the whole game.
They gave up one power play goal and it was
the tying goal that forced overtime, and Michigan, of course
wanted in overtime. So you cannot take penalties against this team,
(03:37):
and you know that you're going to everybody. Every team
gets called for a couple of penalty of the game.
There's very few perfect games for referees these days where
they're pitching a shutout. These they're going to get their
chances on the power play. Notre Dame is going to
have to defend one thing.
Speaker 4 (03:53):
One thing about last weekend with Notre Dame against Wisconsin
was that, and I don't remember if we said it
on this podcast or if I said it to somebody else,
was you don't want to come out of the weekend
with more questions. I don't think that weekend was going
to solve any of the questions on Notre Dame or
Wisconsin for that matter. The only thing was, don't have
a performance that leaves you asking more questions about your
(04:15):
team or winds up with a more negative perception of
a trying start for the year.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
I think that's what happened for both Notre Dame and Wisconsin.
Speaker 4 (04:24):
So the same questions now exist as they're going to Michigan.
One of the things that I look at in the
bet would have been value. But plus one ninety to
me just isn't enough for me. This would be a
game that I would look at as a pizza money
bet if Notre Dame was more along the lines of
a plus two to ten or a plus two fifty,
(04:45):
similar to what we'll talk about later on with our
pizza money bet. So I don't like the value on
Notre Dame in this matchup going to Michigan in terms
of the over under, I really like the there's no
I don't find any value you there either at six
and a half. So this is one that I don't
think you can get enough money out of Michigan to
(05:08):
place the bet. I also don't necessarily think that Michigan's
going to lose this game.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
I just there are too many questions surrounding Notre Dame
right now.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
The one thing I will say here is that the
over under of six point five is intriguing pretty high.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
Its shades toward the under.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
So the bookmakers are trying to tell us that they
think the under is going to hit at minus one
twenty five as opposed to minus one oh five. If
you want to take the over of six over six
and a half, pretty good number, Dan. This feels like
it's going to be a four three or a five
to two, or maybe even a seven to one or
in seven to three or whatever it could be. There's
(05:48):
these teams can play defense, but they also both of
them can open it up a little bit. Yeah, I
don't especially, I don't love I don't love over unders
that that start creeping up to six and a half.
And I know the Western schools wind up usually hitting
the overs more. Based on what I remember from last year,
I don't think I'm misremembering it.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
I don't think I'm remembering it wrong.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
They tend to score more out West than what we
saw here him East, at least when we were talking
on the Edge podcast.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
From this standpoint, when we're talking six and a.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
Half, I guess my problem with it is that you
are going to require some a four to three game
I don't necessarily see happening, and then you have to
hit a five to two type of game where I
understand that they the Michigan team can hit that number,
but the Saint Cloud series they didn't in either game
Arizona State they didn't. I just don't love six and
(06:43):
a half to be able to get over seven.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
I think it's a well placed number.
Speaker 4 (06:48):
Personally speaking, I don't know that I would touch the
over under here.
Speaker 3 (06:53):
Yeah, stairway at this really when the when you look
at this entire that.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
I don't like them. I don't like the overander. I'd
be staying away from both on this one.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Something that scares me about an over under that is
when you have teams that have reputation for offenses and
both teams know the other team has that reputation and
plans to try to shut them down. And one example
is last weekend with a series with Minnesota and Penn State,
both high flying teams, three to one on Friday, one
(07:24):
nothing on Saturday, and Minnesota had twelve shots on goal
in the game, winning one nothing.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
How do tactics come into that?
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Yeah, that's that is when it concerns you, is that, yes,
could these teams are up for ten total here?
Speaker 3 (07:41):
Absolutely? Will they? I don't know? And it's just it's
too scary of a bet.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
So if you want to make anything here, my only
recommendation would be to go under six point five a night.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
One.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
Let's go to Ohio State and Michigan State. They're playing
these in East Lansing. Ohio States out to a seven
to zero in one start. Although not necessarily the toughest
competition so far, this one is over under five and
a half Ohio States plus two hundred. The Spartans are
minus two seventy.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
I love the Ohio State story.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
We've been telling you a lot on our weekend review
podcast on Mondays. It's not hard to highlight a team
that's playing this right out of the gate and at
this point still unbeaten one tie back against AIIC.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
The number that is interesting to me that five point
five over under. And I know that maybe.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Historically these teams have played some lower scoring games, but
this Ohio State team, they're not giving out a lot,
but they're scoring. They put up fifteen last weekend against
Lake Superior. They put up eight in two games against
AIC when they were in Big Ten plate yes again,
and at the games were pretty low scoring two to one,
(09:03):
two to one over Wisconsin. I guess maybe that's what
the bookmakers are looking at, is that the fact that
their one Big Ten series was a really low scoring series,
and Michigan State has been pretty good about being tight defensively.
I think that has to be where this five and
a half comes from. I would have expected it to
be six or six and a half because I think that,
(09:23):
again it's going back to what Dan said, Sometimes you
just get teams that can score a little bit more
out west in games that are typically higher scoring. But
you look at the last weekends. A couple of weekends,
they were idle. Last weekend, Michigan State didn't play at all,
but they held Boston College, a really good team, totally
(09:45):
six goals in two games. They held Canisius to just
one goal in two games, Lake Superior to just two
goals in two games. So I guess that's where the
five and a half number is coming from. If this
was in iiO, I'd actually think about Ohio State as
being a good value bet Michigan State. They've played pretty
(10:08):
decently at home that Boston College season series. The two
games they played there, Yeah, they got shout out and
lost three and I think the first night, but they
had a great bounce back a four to three game.
I think that mont is becoming a tougher place to play.
So I don't really even at good value for Ohio
State of plus two hundred.
Speaker 3 (10:28):
I don't like the Buckeyes here.
Speaker 4 (10:30):
See I look at this as a value again, coming
back to value, I see value on Ohio State here
where when you look at then this is where I
start getting into the plus two hundreds. And I say Okay,
this could really be a good payout if you believe
that Ohio State is for real. And there are parts
of the way Ohio State has begun the season that
(10:51):
make me say, okay, I think this is a really
good matchup for them to try and take the take
their game to a next level. And I look at
Ohio State, I specifically look at the Bowling Green series
more than anything, which.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
I think Bowling Green is better than they were last year.
Speaker 4 (11:07):
I think that they're lost to Western Michigan aside, this
is more getting into Bowling Green. I liked how they
beat rit At overtime on the road. Sorry, Ed, I
liked what I saw in that game. I just what
I see out of Bowling Green as a solid college
hockey team. Maybe not a national championship contender, maybe not
(11:29):
even a CHA championship contender, but just a solid team.
And so if I'm looking at solid and solidity, then
I look at Ohio State and say they played well
against that, So me, this makes Ohio State a very
good team, which heading into Michigan State makes it a
little bit more difficult. But where they're at plus two hundred,
I think that's where I look at it. And say,
(11:52):
I think there's a good possibility they walk out of
this one and give you the give you the money.
I don't know that they're going to win the whole weekend,
but they could give you one of these games very easily.
I do agree on the over under that I think
Michigan State tightens up very well defensively, and tightening up
means the way that they play their style and not
(12:13):
tighten up, rip the stick and play poorly. And I
think that's going to keep the numbers down, which is
also where I like Ohio State to maybe grab some
grab some edge in terms of winning. But when I
look at the over under, that's not enough for me
to look at a five and a half and state
it is going to hit it. I could see this
easily being a three to two game which keeps the under,
or a three to one which keeps the under, and
(12:34):
that's absolutely nothing wrong with that if that's the case
going against the Western goal up teams going through the
roof scoring.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
One thought on that, Dan, I think that if Ohio
State is to come out and win one of these games,
it is going to be a low scoring game, A two, yes, two,
one to three. Now think three to one type of game.
So I love the thought of barlaying. If you want
to take Ohio State parlay, then with the under that
then you get up to a value of probably around
(13:05):
a plus four sixty if you could hit both legs
of the parlay. I like that that bet there. That's
probably one of the more better value bets you could make.
Speaker 3 (13:14):
Right now, we're going to look at one more before
the break in.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
That is in hockey East Maine is at Boston College
over under his six, Maine is plus one sixty five.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
BC is minus two fifteen.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
No disrespect to Boston College, but Maine is that's the
wrong price on Maine. Maine is way too good to
be a plus one sixty five right now.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
I don't care who you're playing. I know BC is good,
and I know they have the horses, but that's really
good value on the Black Bears.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
And just before I was on here, I got off
the phone with Greg Brown and he said Maine is
tough to play against. He said that you have to
be prepared to play a certain style against them. You've
got to match their heaviness, you've got to match their discipline.
They do a really good job, especially in the defensive
(14:05):
zone of not getting too far out of position. So
I think BC, listen, I get it, they should be
the favorite in this game, but I don't think a
minus two fifteen favorite is right. I just think that
number is just off to me, and because of that,
I would have to slightly favor the Black Bears here.
Speaker 4 (14:24):
And my biggest point, and this is just talking about
how we look at the money lines and how we
would approach this. I will say the fact that we're
talking about this game third, the fact that it's where
we're putting it overshadows to me or overwrites the fact
that I think this is the series of the weekend.
You have two top five teams at Contie Forum Friday Sunday,
(14:45):
not Friday Saturday.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
Because of the football game at BC on Saturday.
Speaker 4 (14:50):
I think that this series could be an electric factory.
It's pretty sure it's going to be a sellout at
Connie Forum on Friday. I love Maine, and I've said
how many times if I said it here, college hockey's better
with Maine is good. And I look at the odds
and I see that this I would have marked this
from the beginning as an even money matchup because I
(15:12):
think Maine is that good. Boston College is very clearly
that good. When I look at it and I handicap it,
I see two teams that are on equal footing. Now,
given Boston College's track record, that maybe gives them a
little bit more of an edge.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
So if we're working away from an even money matchup.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
That puts maybe made at a plus one zero five BC,
it may be a minus one fifteen. So the fact
that you're looking at BC is minus two fifteen. There
is no value there. The fact that you're looking at
Maine is plus one sixty five. There is so much
value on Maine that if there's just something that went
wrong on this now, that doesn't mean I think Maine's
(15:47):
going to win the game.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
I think this game is a toss up.
Speaker 4 (15:51):
But I think and I love the fact though, that
you can get this much value on Maine, because Maine
is not a team that anyone is talking about nearly
enough this year.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
Let me ask you this question.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
These are two teams that can really fly up and
down the ice, and it's also two teams with really
good goaltending.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
What do you do with that over under them? Is
this a track meet? Game. Is it going to be
a goalie duel? What are we going to see?
Speaker 1 (16:17):
Listen, this is one of those series You've got Boyar
and Foller, and those two are.
Speaker 3 (16:25):
Lights out goaltenders. They don't give up a lot.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
All of that said, there's an announced offensive talent on
both of these teams to maybe put up seven, eight,
nine goals in this game.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
It could be pretty exciting.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
But yeah, I couldn't touch that over under with a
ten foot poll.
Speaker 4 (16:46):
My biggest point about the over under here is if
this is a track meet, there are pieces in place
that favor both teams.
Speaker 3 (16:55):
Maine is an old team. They are an experienced team.
Speaker 4 (16:58):
That mine the transfer portal very well for very talented players.
And when you look at main statue, the players who
are there have fit the system very well, fit what
they're trying to do up there incredibly well with players
who have come from other schools seeking that next level.
BC is a little bit more homegrown, and that's the
(17:21):
mo of what Greg Brown is doing. But when I
say a home grown, they're also incredibly young. They're one
of the youngest teams in Hockey East. Because home grown
is bringing in guys like James Hagins and bringing in
Teddy Steger and Dean Laturno and guys who are first
round type draft picks in the NHL Draft who aren't going.
Speaker 3 (17:36):
To be there long enough to be to be the
trend older.
Speaker 4 (17:41):
So for me, the track meets part of this determines
what kind of track meet it is. If they're skating
up and down and it turns into an agility game,
and it turns into a skill game, then I can
see this going over and favoring Boston College. If this
turns into a track meet with a little more contact,
a little bit more thumb, a little bit more and
to end shoulder or shoulder contact, I could also see
(18:04):
this hitting the over and going with Maine, or the
under and going with Maine. So a lot's going to
determine this, I think in the first few minutes of
the first.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Period, which is too late to bet on the game exactly,
we're going to take a break and we'll come back
with more of usccho edge.
Speaker 3 (18:24):
We're back with usccho edge.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
It's going to be a baptism by fire for Arizona
State as they get into NCCHC action. They've got pods
this year with three teams in each pod while they
wait for Saint Thomas to arrive. So Arizona State is
going to see a lot of Colorado College and Denver.
They're at CC this weekend. Over under is five and
(18:49):
a half in this game, Arizona State is plus one
thirty five, Colorado College minus one seventy five.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
Yeah, it almost seems unfair to give Arizona State this
baptism by fire by being in the time, but the
defending national champion and a Colorado College team that has
started off the year six and oh, that's just it,
just I know it's just happenstance, It's only for one year,
but boy does that team unfair. I'm almost surprised where
(19:21):
they give the line for Arizona State here.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
I thought that they would have been a bigger dog.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
So I guess that technically means I see more value
in Colorado College. I could have had Arizona State being
plus two hundred or higher in this one. If I
were going to have to wager on this, I would
go to see see they've been good at home six
and oh out of the gate, not at home, but
six and oh overall.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
I just.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
Yeah, I just look at this one and I don't
see if I had to bet Arizona State here, I'd
need to be getting a better price.
Speaker 3 (19:55):
I agree.
Speaker 4 (19:56):
My biggest thing in terms of what we were seeing
out of Colorado College is that they are that's a
team that is creeping up the rankings, that is in
the top ten, that is a very good team. And
then when I look at their record, even though they're undefeated,
the sixth iner record is against two games against the
Laska Acorage, two games against air Force, and two games
(20:18):
against Northern Michigans.
Speaker 3 (20:20):
Even though it's six and.
Speaker 4 (20:21):
Zero, I want a little bit more out of CC,
like I want. I'm looking forward necessarily next weekend when
CC plays Western Michigan on the road for Arizona State.
They tiede Michigan at home, played Providence tight on the
road in an incredibly long road trip, and.
Speaker 3 (20:41):
Split at air Force, where they had to play in
the altitude already once this year.
Speaker 4 (20:45):
They dominated air Force the first night, first game of
the season, and they've lost in overtime. So I actually
don't hate if you're looking at Arizona State here. This
is maybe a situation where I could see parlaying Arizona
State State at plus one thirty five if you like
them with a team that maybe doesn't get the same
odds that we're maybe we're looking at earlier, like a Michigan.
(21:09):
If Michigan's at minus two fifty and you parlay, you
could pull the odds up.
Speaker 3 (21:12):
On Michigan a bit.
Speaker 4 (21:14):
And I think that would make me help you out
in this situation because I don't love the odds on
Floriddle College here, largely because I think Arizona State this
is going to be a good test.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
The one thing I will say is that.
Speaker 4 (21:27):
The altitude at CC it's the same thing I said
against Air Force. I think that's going to be a
challenge that Arizona State has to adjust to in general,
coming out of the desert. It's just an incredibly hard
place to play in terms of over under from five
and a half. I don't know this is I think
it's a coin flip. I think if Arizona's if this
(21:48):
is trending lower, it's probably better for Arizona State. Yeah,
I think you're right about that. I look at these
two teams. Arizona State's not scoring a lot of goals.
That is a bit of a concern for me.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
Is this used to be a team that was pretty
high flying in terms of putting bucks in the nets.
Speaker 3 (22:05):
So they have not scored a lot.
Speaker 1 (22:06):
They haven't allowed a lot either, but CC really has
not allowed much. So this over under of five point five, yeah,
I could see this being a two to one game
or a three to one game.
Speaker 3 (22:16):
But I but I see it also sneaking up to.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
A four to two and you're right on that cusp
and three two empty netter and you throw the remote
cause you took the under once they score that empty netter.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
Yes, good outside.
Speaker 1 (22:32):
I don't think that the lines, the money lines have
been well set this week. I really think that the
over unders have been very well set this week.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
Let's take a look at another NCHC game. It's North
Dakota head Minnesota Duluth. Our friend Brad se Lossman of
the Grand Fours Herald reports that North Dakota gets Cameron
Berg back up front, but they have three defensemen injured.
It's only five true defensemen and a ford skated back
is the sixth defenseman last week and so injuries hitting
(23:02):
the Fighting Hawks. They travel into longtime rival Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (23:06):
Duluth.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
Numbers on this game over under six and a half
North Dakota is minus one ninety five and the home underdog,
Minnesota Dluth is plus one fifty.
Speaker 1 (23:18):
I'm gonna say that Duluth might be a little overpriced
here even at one.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
I know that North Dakota's injured. I know that they
have to go on the road.
Speaker 1 (23:29):
I know they're looking their wounds a little bit after
that Cornell series.
Speaker 3 (23:35):
But listen, this is still North Dakota.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Duluth has had a really slow start to the season
they've had, They've already started to deal with a couple
of injuries, I believe. So I'm curious about this to
Lute team. But I just see this too. I can't
bet against North Dakota no matter really what it is
in plus one fifty at on Duluthe if I was
(24:00):
getting plus two to fifty under Luth, I'd be all
over that plus one fifty.
Speaker 3 (24:06):
I need more Dan, I need more Dan. Wait, what
happened in North Dakota last week? North Dakota? There was
North Dakota forty five seconds are up? You used it
in the first four a long time ago, buddy.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Look, here's my thing about North Dakota three and four,
one and three on the road, look at who they've
played now, Okay, Cornell, and I swear I'm not the
guy who is voting Cornell number one in the country.
I've said that anywhere somebody will let me, it's not me.
I look at what North Dakota's record says, in the
(24:44):
fact that they lost to Minnesota State, they lost.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
To to Cornell, I think they need this one.
Speaker 4 (24:49):
And I don't love it whenever I say that, and
they are the favorite, because that takes away some of
the value on North Dakota when you're looking at them
at minus one ninety five. To me, that absorbs a
bit of the value that you would find on them anyway.
So for me, I stay away from it. But because
North Dakota, in my opinion, needs this game. I don't
(25:11):
want to see North Dakota fall to three and five,
and I also or three and six. I also don't
want North Dakota to lose to a team when the
teams that they have lost to for their four losses
are ranked reasonably pretty good outside of Cornell at Minnesota
State's pretty good team.
Speaker 3 (25:30):
There's a good off schedule in there. So for me, there's.
Speaker 4 (25:33):
A a teeter and the fact that I think North
Dakota is going to be a very good team this year.
Leads me to say they're gonna win at least one
of these, and they're probably gonna win on Friday and
gain some momentum. So I would stay away from this
one altogether, unless, like you said, I saw Minnesota Duluth
trending up towards a pizza money bet where you're looking
(25:56):
at them at plus two hundred or plus two twenty five.
I just I don't love the numbers here. Six and
a half on the over under also lead to me
to say it should hit the over based on North
Dakota's performances this year. Uh well, because when North Dakota
hits the over, they really hit the over seven to
two against BU five three and even in the lost
(26:16):
to Cordel or three they lost to BEU.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
So when they hit the over, they really go for it.
Speaker 4 (26:22):
But that's also asking for a lot of goals, and
I'm not sure that Minnesota Dubluth can contribute enough.
Speaker 3 (26:27):
To get them there. So look, I maybe avoid this one.
Speaker 4 (26:32):
But unless you think North unless you think Minnesota d
Luth is really going to grab the value there, yeah.
Speaker 3 (26:43):
I have to agree with you. There.
Speaker 1 (26:44):
I don't think I would really touch this one, even
the six and a half. I can't justify the under
on the six and a half, and not to mention
it's I guess no, it's chase a little on the under.
One minus one twenty on the under, minus one ten
on the over. But yeah, you're right with North Dakota
starts scoring, they score, and the fact that they've gone
(27:05):
over seven so often makes this a little bit more intriguing.
But still I'm not sure that Duluth is ready to
match that offense and get this push.
Speaker 3 (27:19):
This number of five to one. Could five to one
be the final score? Yeah? I could four to one,
five one, four to two.
Speaker 1 (27:26):
Those numbers scare me, so I'd avoid this one.
Speaker 2 (27:29):
Going to bring us to our pizza money bet, and
that's one where the odds are pretty wide and we
say maybe you can bet on it if you have
some money that you would otherwise spend on a pizza,
and maybe if you win you can get some extra toppings.
This one has you mass loll at bu now you
(27:50):
mass lowl. The river Hawks are off to their best
start since Norm Basin, their head coach, was lacing them up. Meanwhile,
J Pandolpho's Terriers are licking their off of getting swept
last weekend by Michigan. This one's interesting. This is why
we say it's pizza money over under six and a half.
(28:10):
Lowly is a plus two sixty and BU minus three sixty.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
Yes, it's This could be a good pizza money bet
if you want to throw a little bit of cash
on the river Hawks to at a plus two sixty price.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
Here's the problem. I don't see BU.
Speaker 1 (28:28):
Losing three straight home games, and that's what this would
come down to. They get swept by Michigan at home,
they get a third game at Aganis against albeit a
very good, UMass little team. I don't feel it like
I would not. I'd rather just eat the pizza. I
don't think I could throw any money on the river Hawks.
(28:50):
And listen, I'm a U Moss little grad. I'm still
not going to go Homer rushall all over you guys.
I think that BU has to bounce back. This is
it's a necessary, get right game that will get everything
that Lowell can throw at them. I know that, but
I still think that this is a little bit too
challenging for the river Hawks. I'd have to take bu
(29:12):
here and at that price of minus three p sixty.
Speaker 4 (29:17):
Sorry, no value there. What's the place up in Lowell
that I'm thinking of for pizza? Tremanti? Is that the
pizza place that I that I ate a pizza after
a Lowell game one night and I'm just thinking now.
Speaker 3 (29:31):
Was always good.
Speaker 4 (29:33):
If I'm a Lowll fan, I bet this on Friday,
I'm like, if I bet this on Friday, we all
know about betting.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
Again, That's not something I'm gonna do, but the but.
Speaker 4 (29:41):
If I am a betting man, I am betting loll
on Friday, taking the money from the pizza and getting
an extra pizza when I go to the when I
go to Saga Center on Saturday.
Speaker 3 (29:51):
That's that is what is in my head.
Speaker 4 (29:53):
I'm just trying to remember the place where I actually
got pizza from up and Lowell last time I was
up there.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
That when I was in school, we had Feo's and
that was a small pizza or a small sub, a
soda and a bag of chips with six dollars backfins.
I don't know if you can get that type of value,
but I would put more than six dollars if you
are going to throw a pizza money out there.
Speaker 3 (30:14):
Yeah, but so, And here's my reason why.
Speaker 4 (30:18):
The point of the pizza money bet to me is
the you look at the odds and you say, I
don't know that they're going to win this one, but
you know what, if they do, it's gonna make for
It's gonna make for a fun night for me. And
I would you don't parlay this with anything you don't like.
There's almost your betting with low confidence that you're higher
confidence that you're gonna lose. So low confidence in winning
(30:38):
a lower confidence not low gole at plus twenty sixty
to me is one of those Yeah, I could.
Speaker 3 (30:45):
I like it because when I look at.
Speaker 4 (30:47):
What Mole has done over the course of the season,
exception being the loss in their first official game against
the Bluth, they even have played really good hockey and
played well against Colgate, played well against Barramack, played well
against holy Cross, played well in the second game against Auluth, which,
by the way, Louie Knight at the songa Center like,
(31:09):
I said this to everybody somewhere.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
I should have brought my kids to that. But I
look at.
Speaker 4 (31:14):
Lowell and I just see a fun hockey team that's
playing a way that you want to watch right now,
And to me, that is going into BU against the
team that's fighting it a bit. Shouldn't lose a third
game in a row at home, but it has been fighting.
Some of its results granted to very good hockey teams.
(31:34):
Fowle is a very good hockey team, then be you
very careful, like you could enter into that pantheon. So
for me, that's the point of where I look at
this and say go for it and then still order pizza.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
This is this is actually a pretty tough stretch for BU. Yeah,
a quarter to two against Michigan and now the home
and home with U mass Lowell. I guess it really
it doesn't really get easier because then they're going to
go to Maine after this.
Speaker 3 (32:02):
There's not an easy league anymore.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
Hockey ease certainly, I guess you're going to get those
types of schedules in the league, but it is it's
this is eighth Street against a nationally ranked opponent.
Speaker 3 (32:15):
That's a tough ask of any team out there.
Speaker 4 (32:18):
There is there is one piece of this that when
people talk about this matchup that I come back to,
and it's the not Day Dame factor that I've set
across the board, which is you see Boston University hockey
and you just assume that they're going to win this game,
and when you see the odds, that's one of those
things that from a hockey standpoint, this is a game
(32:39):
that we're going to learn a lot about Bowl in
a weekend that we're going to learn a lot about
this U Mass Bowl team. No, UMass Bowl does not
have the same name recognition at a national level as
the Boston University, but Lowell is not that far removed
from being a very good hockey team.
Speaker 3 (32:57):
Norm Bezen knows what he's doing there.
Speaker 4 (32:59):
This is one of those if you're a little excited
to see a team creep up and make the jump
in Hockey East, this is one where you could throw
the pizza money down and get a little excited for
Lowell to do that.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
Whether or not Lowell is gonna win, we'll find out
on the ice.
Speaker 4 (33:13):
But it's just a spot where if you're looking for
a new team and you want to throw a little action.
Speaker 3 (33:19):
Down on it, this could be the team to jump
onto right now.
Speaker 2 (33:22):
With that will wrap up, I'm Ed Trevsker alongside Jim
Connolly and Dan Rubin, and this has been usc cho
Edge
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to usccho Edge for Friday, November eighth, twenty twenty four.
I'm ed Trefskier alongside Jim Connelly and Dan Rubin. Each
week we look at money lines and over under in
selected games, and one of the games we selected last
week was North Dakota at Cornell. Now we're not using
this as an excuse, but we didn't know until after
(00:35):
we recorded how injury riddled North Dakota was. But Jim
and I both expressed some concerns about it being Cornell's
first game and maybe being a little rusty or a
little sloppy. And Dan Rubin, who covers the ECAC like
a blanket.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Knew we were wrong.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Knew that Mike Schaeffer's team would be all excited. And Dan,
we needed to give you about forty five seconds to gloat.
I'll just say one thing. I'll say one thing.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
You listen to me.
Speaker 4 (01:09):
You need to listen to me more if people people
just need to listen to me when I talk about
these things. And I am going to take those forty seconds.
I'm gonna take that nice inhale smells like victory. That yep,
still smells like victory. Go big Red. Give my regards
to Davy. There's the reason why I covered Cordell this
week for the us cho Ecac column. And if anyone
(01:32):
needs me, I'm gonna get all of my pics wrong
this week.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
Yeah, I listen. I congratulations on getting one right. Finally,
I do have concern if you tell too many people
to listen to you, that people will start bankrupting themselves.
Speaker 4 (01:50):
Be very careful, that's all I'm gonna say. Hey, who
had Wisconsin last year? Wisconsin plus whatever it was last year.
That's I'm good for one of these a year. Good
for one of these a year. I don't remember the
Wisconsin one. So that's part of life.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
All right. Why don't we jump into this week's games.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
We've got a couple in the Big ten, a couple
in NCCHC, plus a couple in Hockey East, one of
which is our pizza money, and I think we'll start
with a big ten. Notre Dame is at Michigan. Over
under on this one is six and a half. Notre
Dame is plus one ninety and Michigan is minus two fifty.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
After Michigan's weekend last week, swoopeping Boston University.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
On the road.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
Now they go back home, they get Notre Dame. I
guess I'm not surprised at this line. Do you sweep
the number three team in the country, You're going to
be a favorite.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
For a little while now I don't.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
I guess the bigger thing for me is I don't
know what Notre Dame is yet.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
We I think we're starting to learn.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
Michigan's really good, and they have a power play right
now that is just lethal, and if they keep clicking
at the rate they are, that's a very That is
a team you cannot take penalties against. B You got
into bad penalty trouble on Friday night, end up giving
up five I think four of them were on the
(03:16):
power play. And then the next night, be you what
you'd expect a J. Pandolpho team to do. They stayed
absolutely disciplined. They took just one penalty the whole game.
They gave up one power play goal and it was
the tying goal that forced overtime, and Michigan, of course
wanted in overtime. So you cannot take penalties against this team,
(03:37):
and you know that you're going to everybody. Every team
gets called for a couple of penalty of the game.
There's very few perfect games for referees these days where
they're pitching a shutout. These they're going to get their
chances on the power play. Notre Dame is going to
have to defend one thing.
Speaker 4 (03:53):
One thing about last weekend with Notre Dame against Wisconsin
was that, and I don't remember if we said it
on this podcast or if I said it to somebody else,
was you don't want to come out of the weekend
with more questions. I don't think that weekend was going
to solve any of the questions on Notre Dame or
Wisconsin for that matter. The only thing was, don't have
a performance that leaves you asking more questions about your
(04:15):
team or winds up with a more negative perception of
a trying start for the year.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
I think that's what happened for both Notre Dame and Wisconsin.
Speaker 4 (04:24):
So the same questions now exist as they're going to Michigan.
One of the things that I look at in the
bet would have been value. But plus one ninety to
me just isn't enough for me. This would be a
game that I would look at as a pizza money
bet if Notre Dame was more along the lines of
a plus two to ten or a plus two fifty,
(04:45):
similar to what we'll talk about later on with our
pizza money bet. So I don't like the value on
Notre Dame in this matchup going to Michigan in terms
of the over under, I really like the there's no
I don't find any value you there either at six
and a half. So this is one that I don't
think you can get enough money out of Michigan to
(05:08):
place the bet. I also don't necessarily think that Michigan's
going to lose this game.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
I just there are too many questions surrounding Notre Dame
right now.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
The one thing I will say here is that the
over under of six point five is intriguing pretty high.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
Its shades toward the under.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
So the bookmakers are trying to tell us that they
think the under is going to hit at minus one
twenty five as opposed to minus one oh five. If
you want to take the over of six over six
and a half, pretty good number, Dan. This feels like
it's going to be a four three or a five
to two, or maybe even a seven to one or
in seven to three or whatever it could be. There's
(05:48):
these teams can play defense, but they also both of
them can open it up a little bit. Yeah, I
don't especially, I don't love I don't love over unders
that that start creeping up to six and a half.
And I know the Western schools wind up usually hitting
the overs more. Based on what I remember from last year,
I don't think I'm misremembering it.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
I don't think I'm remembering it wrong.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
They tend to score more out West than what we
saw here him East, at least when we were talking
on the Edge podcast.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
From this standpoint, when we're talking six and a.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
Half, I guess my problem with it is that you
are going to require some a four to three game
I don't necessarily see happening, and then you have to
hit a five to two type of game where I
understand that they the Michigan team can hit that number,
but the Saint Cloud series they didn't in either game
Arizona State they didn't. I just don't love six and
(06:43):
a half to be able to get over seven.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
I think it's a well placed number.
Speaker 4 (06:48):
Personally speaking, I don't know that I would touch the
over under here.
Speaker 3 (06:53):
Yeah, stairway at this really when the when you look
at this entire that.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
I don't like them. I don't like the overander. I'd
be staying away from both on this one.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Something that scares me about an over under that is
when you have teams that have reputation for offenses and
both teams know the other team has that reputation and
plans to try to shut them down. And one example
is last weekend with a series with Minnesota and Penn State,
both high flying teams, three to one on Friday, one
(07:24):
nothing on Saturday, and Minnesota had twelve shots on goal
in the game, winning one nothing.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
How do tactics come into that?
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Yeah, that's that is when it concerns you, is that, yes,
could these teams are up for ten total here?
Speaker 3 (07:41):
Absolutely? Will they? I don't know? And it's just it's
too scary of a bet.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
So if you want to make anything here, my only
recommendation would be to go under six point five a night.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
One.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
Let's go to Ohio State and Michigan State. They're playing
these in East Lansing. Ohio States out to a seven
to zero in one start. Although not necessarily the toughest
competition so far, this one is over under five and
a half Ohio States plus two hundred. The Spartans are
minus two seventy.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
I love the Ohio State story.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
We've been telling you a lot on our weekend review
podcast on Mondays. It's not hard to highlight a team
that's playing this right out of the gate and at
this point still unbeaten one tie back against AIIC.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
The number that is interesting to me that five point
five over under. And I know that maybe.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Historically these teams have played some lower scoring games, but
this Ohio State team, they're not giving out a lot,
but they're scoring. They put up fifteen last weekend against
Lake Superior. They put up eight in two games against
AIC when they were in Big Ten plate yes again,
and at the games were pretty low scoring two to one,
(09:03):
two to one over Wisconsin. I guess maybe that's what
the bookmakers are looking at, is that the fact that
their one Big Ten series was a really low scoring series,
and Michigan State has been pretty good about being tight defensively.
I think that has to be where this five and
a half comes from. I would have expected it to
be six or six and a half because I think that,
(09:23):
again it's going back to what Dan said, Sometimes you
just get teams that can score a little bit more
out west in games that are typically higher scoring. But
you look at the last weekends. A couple of weekends,
they were idle. Last weekend, Michigan State didn't play at all,
but they held Boston College, a really good team, totally
(09:45):
six goals in two games. They held Canisius to just
one goal in two games, Lake Superior to just two
goals in two games. So I guess that's where the
five and a half number is coming from. If this
was in iiO, I'd actually think about Ohio State as
being a good value bet Michigan State. They've played pretty
(10:08):
decently at home that Boston College season series. The two
games they played there, Yeah, they got shout out and
lost three and I think the first night, but they
had a great bounce back a four to three game.
I think that mont is becoming a tougher place to play.
So I don't really even at good value for Ohio
State of plus two hundred.
Speaker 3 (10:28):
I don't like the Buckeyes here.
Speaker 4 (10:30):
See I look at this as a value again, coming
back to value, I see value on Ohio State here
where when you look at then this is where I
start getting into the plus two hundreds. And I say Okay,
this could really be a good payout if you believe
that Ohio State is for real. And there are parts
of the way Ohio State has begun the season that
(10:51):
make me say, okay, I think this is a really
good matchup for them to try and take the take
their game to a next level. And I look at
Ohio State, I specifically look at the Bowling Green series
more than anything, which.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
I think Bowling Green is better than they were last year.
Speaker 4 (11:07):
I think that they're lost to Western Michigan aside, this
is more getting into Bowling Green. I liked how they
beat rit At overtime on the road. Sorry, Ed, I
liked what I saw in that game. I just what
I see out of Bowling Green as a solid college
hockey team. Maybe not a national championship contender, maybe not
(11:29):
even a CHA championship contender, but just a solid team.
And so if I'm looking at solid and solidity, then
I look at Ohio State and say they played well
against that, So me, this makes Ohio State a very
good team, which heading into Michigan State makes it a
little bit more difficult. But where they're at plus two hundred,
I think that's where I look at it. And say,
(11:52):
I think there's a good possibility they walk out of
this one and give you the give you the money.
I don't know that they're going to win the whole weekend,
but they could give you one of these games very easily.
I do agree on the over under that I think
Michigan State tightens up very well defensively, and tightening up
means the way that they play their style and not
(12:13):
tighten up, rip the stick and play poorly. And I
think that's going to keep the numbers down, which is
also where I like Ohio State to maybe grab some
grab some edge in terms of winning. But when I
look at the over under, that's not enough for me
to look at a five and a half and state
it is going to hit it. I could see this
easily being a three to two game which keeps the under,
or a three to one which keeps the under, and
(12:34):
that's absolutely nothing wrong with that if that's the case
going against the Western goal up teams going through the
roof scoring.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
One thought on that, Dan, I think that if Ohio
State is to come out and win one of these games,
it is going to be a low scoring game, A two, yes, two,
one to three. Now think three to one type of game.
So I love the thought of barlaying. If you want
to take Ohio State parlay, then with the under that
then you get up to a value of probably around
(13:05):
a plus four sixty if you could hit both legs
of the parlay. I like that that bet there. That's
probably one of the more better value bets you could make.
Speaker 3 (13:14):
Right now, we're going to look at one more before
the break in.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
That is in hockey East Maine is at Boston College
over under his six, Maine is plus one sixty five.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
BC is minus two fifteen.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
No disrespect to Boston College, but Maine is that's the
wrong price on Maine. Maine is way too good to
be a plus one sixty five right now.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
I don't care who you're playing. I know BC is good,
and I know they have the horses, but that's really
good value on the Black Bears.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
And just before I was on here, I got off
the phone with Greg Brown and he said Maine is
tough to play against. He said that you have to
be prepared to play a certain style against them. You've
got to match their heaviness, you've got to match their discipline.
They do a really good job, especially in the defensive
(14:05):
zone of not getting too far out of position. So
I think BC, listen, I get it, they should be
the favorite in this game, but I don't think a
minus two fifteen favorite is right. I just think that
number is just off to me, and because of that,
I would have to slightly favor the Black Bears here.
Speaker 4 (14:24):
And my biggest point, and this is just talking about
how we look at the money lines and how we
would approach this. I will say the fact that we're
talking about this game third, the fact that it's where
we're putting it overshadows to me or overwrites the fact
that I think this is the series of the weekend.
You have two top five teams at Contie Forum Friday Sunday,
(14:45):
not Friday Saturday.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
Because of the football game at BC on Saturday.
Speaker 4 (14:50):
I think that this series could be an electric factory.
It's pretty sure it's going to be a sellout at
Connie Forum on Friday. I love Maine, and I've said
how many times if I said it here, college hockey's better
with Maine is good. And I look at the odds
and I see that this I would have marked this
from the beginning as an even money matchup because I
(15:12):
think Maine is that good. Boston College is very clearly
that good. When I look at it and I handicap it,
I see two teams that are on equal footing. Now,
given Boston College's track record, that maybe gives them a
little bit more of an edge.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
So if we're working away from an even money matchup.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
That puts maybe made at a plus one zero five BC,
it may be a minus one fifteen. So the fact
that you're looking at BC is minus two fifteen. There
is no value there. The fact that you're looking at
Maine is plus one sixty five. There is so much
value on Maine that if there's just something that went
wrong on this now, that doesn't mean I think Maine's
(15:47):
going to win the game.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
I think this game is a toss up.
Speaker 4 (15:51):
But I think and I love the fact though, that
you can get this much value on Maine, because Maine
is not a team that anyone is talking about nearly
enough this year.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
Let me ask you this question.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
These are two teams that can really fly up and
down the ice, and it's also two teams with really
good goaltending.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
What do you do with that over under them? Is
this a track meet? Game. Is it going to be
a goalie duel? What are we going to see?
Speaker 1 (16:17):
Listen, this is one of those series You've got Boyar
and Foller, and those two are.
Speaker 3 (16:25):
Lights out goaltenders. They don't give up a lot.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
All of that said, there's an announced offensive talent on
both of these teams to maybe put up seven, eight,
nine goals in this game.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
It could be pretty exciting.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
But yeah, I couldn't touch that over under with a
ten foot poll.
Speaker 4 (16:46):
My biggest point about the over under here is if
this is a track meet, there are pieces in place
that favor both teams.
Speaker 3 (16:55):
Maine is an old team. They are an experienced team.
Speaker 4 (16:58):
That mine the transfer portal very well for very talented players.
And when you look at main statue, the players who
are there have fit the system very well, fit what
they're trying to do up there incredibly well with players
who have come from other schools seeking that next level.
BC is a little bit more homegrown, and that's the
(17:21):
mo of what Greg Brown is doing. But when I
say a home grown, they're also incredibly young. They're one
of the youngest teams in Hockey East. Because home grown
is bringing in guys like James Hagins and bringing in
Teddy Steger and Dean Laturno and guys who are first
round type draft picks in the NHL Draft who aren't going.
Speaker 3 (17:36):
To be there long enough to be to be the
trend older.
Speaker 4 (17:41):
So for me, the track meets part of this determines
what kind of track meet it is. If they're skating
up and down and it turns into an agility game,
and it turns into a skill game, then I can
see this going over and favoring Boston College. If this
turns into a track meet with a little more contact,
a little bit more thumb, a little bit more and
to end shoulder or shoulder contact, I could also see
(18:04):
this hitting the over and going with Maine, or the
under and going with Maine. So a lot's going to
determine this, I think in the first few minutes of
the first.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Period, which is too late to bet on the game exactly,
we're going to take a break and we'll come back
with more of usccho edge.
Speaker 3 (18:24):
We're back with usccho edge.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
It's going to be a baptism by fire for Arizona
State as they get into NCCHC action. They've got pods
this year with three teams in each pod while they
wait for Saint Thomas to arrive. So Arizona State is
going to see a lot of Colorado College and Denver.
They're at CC this weekend. Over under is five and
(18:49):
a half in this game, Arizona State is plus one
thirty five, Colorado College minus one seventy five.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
Yeah, it almost seems unfair to give Arizona State this
baptism by fire by being in the time, but the
defending national champion and a Colorado College team that has
started off the year six and oh, that's just it,
just I know it's just happenstance, It's only for one year,
but boy does that team unfair. I'm almost surprised where
(19:21):
they give the line for Arizona State here.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
I thought that they would have been a bigger dog.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
So I guess that technically means I see more value
in Colorado College. I could have had Arizona State being
plus two hundred or higher in this one. If I
were going to have to wager on this, I would
go to see see they've been good at home six
and oh out of the gate, not at home, but
six and oh overall.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
I just.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
Yeah, I just look at this one and I don't
see if I had to bet Arizona State here, I'd
need to be getting a better price.
Speaker 3 (19:55):
I agree.
Speaker 4 (19:56):
My biggest thing in terms of what we were seeing
out of Colorado College is that they are that's a
team that is creeping up the rankings, that is in
the top ten, that is a very good team. And
then when I look at their record, even though they're undefeated,
the sixth iner record is against two games against the
Laska Acorage, two games against air Force, and two games
(20:18):
against Northern Michigans.
Speaker 3 (20:20):
Even though it's six and.
Speaker 4 (20:21):
Zero, I want a little bit more out of CC,
like I want. I'm looking forward necessarily next weekend when
CC plays Western Michigan on the road for Arizona State.
They tiede Michigan at home, played Providence tight on the
road in an incredibly long road trip, and.
Speaker 3 (20:41):
Split at air Force, where they had to play in
the altitude already once this year.
Speaker 4 (20:45):
They dominated air Force the first night, first game of
the season, and they've lost in overtime. So I actually
don't hate if you're looking at Arizona State here. This
is maybe a situation where I could see parlaying Arizona
State State at plus one thirty five if you like
them with a team that maybe doesn't get the same
odds that we're maybe we're looking at earlier, like a Michigan.
(21:09):
If Michigan's at minus two fifty and you parlay, you
could pull the odds up.
Speaker 3 (21:12):
On Michigan a bit.
Speaker 4 (21:14):
And I think that would make me help you out
in this situation because I don't love the odds on
Floriddle College here, largely because I think Arizona State this
is going to be a good test.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
The one thing I will say is that.
Speaker 4 (21:27):
The altitude at CC it's the same thing I said
against Air Force. I think that's going to be a
challenge that Arizona State has to adjust to in general,
coming out of the desert. It's just an incredibly hard
place to play in terms of over under from five
and a half. I don't know this is I think
it's a coin flip. I think if Arizona's if this
(21:48):
is trending lower, it's probably better for Arizona State. Yeah,
I think you're right about that. I look at these
two teams. Arizona State's not scoring a lot of goals.
That is a bit of a concern for me.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
Is this used to be a team that was pretty
high flying in terms of putting bucks in the nets.
Speaker 3 (22:05):
So they have not scored a lot.
Speaker 1 (22:06):
They haven't allowed a lot either, but CC really has
not allowed much. So this over under of five point five, yeah,
I could see this being a two to one game
or a three to one game.
Speaker 3 (22:16):
But I but I see it also sneaking up to.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
A four to two and you're right on that cusp
and three two empty netter and you throw the remote
cause you took the under once they score that empty netter.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
Yes, good outside.
Speaker 1 (22:32):
I don't think that the lines, the money lines have
been well set this week. I really think that the
over unders have been very well set this week.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
Let's take a look at another NCHC game. It's North
Dakota head Minnesota Duluth. Our friend Brad se Lossman of
the Grand Fours Herald reports that North Dakota gets Cameron
Berg back up front, but they have three defensemen injured.
It's only five true defensemen and a ford skated back
is the sixth defenseman last week and so injuries hitting
(23:02):
the Fighting Hawks. They travel into longtime rival Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (23:06):
Duluth.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
Numbers on this game over under six and a half
North Dakota is minus one ninety five and the home underdog,
Minnesota Dluth is plus one fifty.
Speaker 1 (23:18):
I'm gonna say that Duluth might be a little overpriced
here even at one.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
I know that North Dakota's injured. I know that they
have to go on the road.
Speaker 1 (23:29):
I know they're looking their wounds a little bit after
that Cornell series.
Speaker 3 (23:35):
But listen, this is still North Dakota.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Duluth has had a really slow start to the season
they've had, They've already started to deal with a couple
of injuries, I believe. So I'm curious about this to
Lute team. But I just see this too. I can't
bet against North Dakota no matter really what it is
in plus one fifty at on Duluthe if I was
(24:00):
getting plus two to fifty under Luth, I'd be all
over that plus one fifty.
Speaker 3 (24:06):
I need more Dan, I need more Dan. Wait, what
happened in North Dakota last week? North Dakota? There was
North Dakota forty five seconds are up? You used it
in the first four a long time ago, buddy.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Look, here's my thing about North Dakota three and four,
one and three on the road, look at who they've
played now, Okay, Cornell, and I swear I'm not the
guy who is voting Cornell number one in the country.
I've said that anywhere somebody will let me, it's not me.
I look at what North Dakota's record says, in the
(24:44):
fact that they lost to Minnesota State, they lost.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
To to Cornell, I think they need this one.
Speaker 4 (24:49):
And I don't love it whenever I say that, and
they are the favorite, because that takes away some of
the value on North Dakota when you're looking at them
at minus one ninety five. To me, that absorbs a
bit of the value that you would find on them anyway.
So for me, I stay away from it. But because
North Dakota, in my opinion, needs this game. I don't
(25:11):
want to see North Dakota fall to three and five,
and I also or three and six. I also don't
want North Dakota to lose to a team when the
teams that they have lost to for their four losses
are ranked reasonably pretty good outside of Cornell at Minnesota
State's pretty good team.
Speaker 3 (25:30):
There's a good off schedule in there. So for me, there's.
Speaker 4 (25:33):
A a teeter and the fact that I think North
Dakota is going to be a very good team this year.
Leads me to say they're gonna win at least one
of these, and they're probably gonna win on Friday and
gain some momentum. So I would stay away from this
one altogether, unless, like you said, I saw Minnesota Duluth
trending up towards a pizza money bet where you're looking
(25:56):
at them at plus two hundred or plus two twenty five.
I just I don't love the numbers here. Six and
a half on the over under also lead to me
to say it should hit the over based on North
Dakota's performances this year. Uh well, because when North Dakota
hits the over, they really hit the over seven to
two against BU five three and even in the lost
(26:16):
to Cordel or three they lost to BEU.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
So when they hit the over, they really go for it.
Speaker 4 (26:22):
But that's also asking for a lot of goals, and
I'm not sure that Minnesota Dubluth can contribute enough.
Speaker 3 (26:27):
To get them there. So look, I maybe avoid this one.
Speaker 4 (26:32):
But unless you think North unless you think Minnesota d
Luth is really going to grab the value there, yeah.
Speaker 3 (26:43):
I have to agree with you. There.
Speaker 1 (26:44):
I don't think I would really touch this one, even
the six and a half. I can't justify the under
on the six and a half, and not to mention
it's I guess no, it's chase a little on the under.
One minus one twenty on the under, minus one ten
on the over. But yeah, you're right with North Dakota
starts scoring, they score, and the fact that they've gone
(27:05):
over seven so often makes this a little bit more intriguing.
But still I'm not sure that Duluth is ready to
match that offense and get this push.
Speaker 3 (27:19):
This number of five to one. Could five to one
be the final score? Yeah? I could four to one,
five one, four to two.
Speaker 1 (27:26):
Those numbers scare me, so I'd avoid this one.
Speaker 2 (27:29):
Going to bring us to our pizza money bet, and
that's one where the odds are pretty wide and we
say maybe you can bet on it if you have
some money that you would otherwise spend on a pizza,
and maybe if you win you can get some extra toppings.
This one has you mass loll at bu now you
(27:50):
mass lowl. The river Hawks are off to their best
start since Norm Basin, their head coach, was lacing them up. Meanwhile,
J Pandolpho's Terriers are licking their off of getting swept
last weekend by Michigan. This one's interesting. This is why
we say it's pizza money over under six and a half.
(28:10):
Lowly is a plus two sixty and BU minus three sixty.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
Yes, it's This could be a good pizza money bet
if you want to throw a little bit of cash
on the river Hawks to at a plus two sixty price.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
Here's the problem. I don't see BU.
Speaker 1 (28:28):
Losing three straight home games, and that's what this would
come down to. They get swept by Michigan at home,
they get a third game at Aganis against albeit a
very good, UMass little team. I don't feel it like
I would not. I'd rather just eat the pizza. I
don't think I could throw any money on the river Hawks.
(28:50):
And listen, I'm a U Moss little grad. I'm still
not going to go Homer rushall all over you guys.
I think that BU has to bounce back. This is
it's a necessary, get right game that will get everything
that Lowell can throw at them. I know that, but
I still think that this is a little bit too
challenging for the river Hawks. I'd have to take bu
(29:12):
here and at that price of minus three p sixty.
Speaker 4 (29:17):
Sorry, no value there. What's the place up in Lowell
that I'm thinking of for pizza? Tremanti? Is that the
pizza place that I that I ate a pizza after
a Lowell game one night and I'm just thinking now.
Speaker 3 (29:31):
Was always good.
Speaker 4 (29:33):
If I'm a Lowll fan, I bet this on Friday,
I'm like, if I bet this on Friday, we all
know about betting.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
Again, That's not something I'm gonna do, but the but.
Speaker 4 (29:41):
If I am a betting man, I am betting loll
on Friday, taking the money from the pizza and getting
an extra pizza when I go to the when I
go to Saga Center on Saturday.
Speaker 3 (29:51):
That's that is what is in my head.
Speaker 4 (29:53):
I'm just trying to remember the place where I actually
got pizza from up and Lowell last time I was
up there.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
That when I was in school, we had Feo's and
that was a small pizza or a small sub, a
soda and a bag of chips with six dollars backfins.
I don't know if you can get that type of value,
but I would put more than six dollars if you
are going to throw a pizza money out there.
Speaker 3 (30:14):
Yeah, but so, And here's my reason why.
Speaker 4 (30:18):
The point of the pizza money bet to me is
the you look at the odds and you say, I
don't know that they're going to win this one, but
you know what, if they do, it's gonna make for
It's gonna make for a fun night for me. And
I would you don't parlay this with anything you don't like.
There's almost your betting with low confidence that you're higher
confidence that you're gonna lose. So low confidence in winning
(30:38):
a lower confidence not low gole at plus twenty sixty
to me is one of those Yeah, I could.
Speaker 3 (30:45):
I like it because when I look at.
Speaker 4 (30:47):
What Mole has done over the course of the season,
exception being the loss in their first official game against
the Bluth, they even have played really good hockey and
played well against Colgate, played well against Barramack, played well
against holy Cross, played well in the second game against Auluth, which,
by the way, Louie Knight at the songa Center like,
(31:09):
I said this to everybody somewhere.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
I should have brought my kids to that. But I
look at.
Speaker 4 (31:14):
Lowell and I just see a fun hockey team that's
playing a way that you want to watch right now,
And to me, that is going into BU against the
team that's fighting it a bit. Shouldn't lose a third
game in a row at home, but it has been fighting.
Some of its results granted to very good hockey teams.
(31:34):
Fowle is a very good hockey team, then be you
very careful, like you could enter into that pantheon. So
for me, that's the point of where I look at
this and say go for it and then still order pizza.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
This is this is actually a pretty tough stretch for BU. Yeah,
a quarter to two against Michigan and now the home
and home with U mass Lowell. I guess it really
it doesn't really get easier because then they're going to
go to Maine after this.
Speaker 3 (32:02):
There's not an easy league anymore.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
Hockey ease certainly, I guess you're going to get those
types of schedules in the league, but it is it's
this is eighth Street against a nationally ranked opponent.
Speaker 3 (32:15):
That's a tough ask of any team out there.
Speaker 4 (32:18):
There is there is one piece of this that when
people talk about this matchup that I come back to,
and it's the not Day Dame factor that I've set
across the board, which is you see Boston University hockey
and you just assume that they're going to win this game,
and when you see the odds, that's one of those
things that from a hockey standpoint, this is a game
(32:39):
that we're going to learn a lot about Bowl in
a weekend that we're going to learn a lot about
this U Mass Bowl team. No, UMass Bowl does not
have the same name recognition at a national level as
the Boston University, but Lowell is not that far removed
from being a very good hockey team.
Speaker 3 (32:57):
Norm Bezen knows what he's doing there.
Speaker 4 (32:59):
This is one of those if you're a little excited
to see a team creep up and make the jump
in Hockey East, this is one where you could throw
the pizza money down and get a little excited for
Lowell to do that.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
Whether or not Lowell is gonna win, we'll find out
on the ice.
Speaker 4 (33:13):
But it's just a spot where if you're looking for
a new team and you want to throw a little action.
Speaker 3 (33:19):
Down on it, this could be the team to jump
onto right now.
Speaker 2 (33:22):
With that will wrap up, I'm Ed Trevsker alongside Jim
Connolly and Dan Rubin, and this has been usc cho
Edge
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