December 6, 2024 • 23 mins
USCHO Edge hosts Jim Connelly (@jimmyconnelly), Dan Rubin (@DanRubin12) and Ed Trefzger (@EdTrefzger) look at money lines and over/under for five games (plus our "pizza money" game) on December 6, 2024:
- Denver -154 @ Western Michigan +120; over/under 6
- Minnesota Duluth +150 @ Arizona State -195; o/u 6
- Colorado College +114 @ Providence -145; o/u 5
- Michigan +114 @ Minnesota -145; o/u 6.5
- Michigan State -210 @ Wisconsin +160; o/u 5.5
- Colgate +270 @ Cornell -375; o/u 5
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to usccho Edge for Friday.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
December sixth, twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
I'm ed trevsk alongside Jim Connolly and Dan Rubin some
interesting action, and we're going to start out in the NCCHC.
Denver is at Western Michigan, and on that game, the
over under is six. The money line Denver minus one
fifty four and Western Michigan plus one twenty.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
This is maybe one of the best series will have
this weekend. And you're not gonna see this price on
Denver very often not saying that it's good value at
minus one fifty four on the road, but you're not.
You're going to see more prices in the two hundred
and two twenty two twenty five rats for Denver most
(01:00):
this season. You're getting the best some of the best
value you'll get on the Pioneers. At the same time, though,
Western's playing really well, just coming off of a fantastic
two game series where they split each team winning at
home against Michigan last week. It's one of these series
(01:20):
that you know that both teams can put up goals.
So the over under of six is one that I
would have to favor. The over here and I believe
it is the over. The over is actually slightly weighted.
It's minus one twenty five and the over minus one
oh five on the unders. I do think that as
(01:41):
I look at this one, I like Denver here. I
don't mind the value I'm getting, and if I took
the over under, I'd be taking the over.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
I don't really see a difference between either one of
these teams in terms of what you might get from them,
which is to say that both are very good oppipenses,
both a very good defenses, both a very good special team.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
Both the keep keep power plays from scoring.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Both but on both proud player Belty kill as we
get again.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
So anytime that you're getting close to.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
A pick on Denver right now, I think that is
about what you're going to get for value in terms
of you're not going to get them under minus one
seventy five or minus two hundred a lot this year.
But I just genuinely think that it's also one of
those I just love them, I just love the matchup,
and so I tend to shade to the over on
(02:36):
this largely because I think both teams are just playing
well and I think there's gonna be even a three
free situation. That's a bush on it over under a six.
So I think you obviously taking the full punch money mine.
Now you're getting into the you know who scores in
an overtime or who was a shootout. So to me,
that is get you to the get the over under.
(03:00):
I'm not necessarily enamored with the money line, but I
don't think.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
You're can get better value on Denver Resid this year. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
My only hesitation I will say on the over under
is taking Western Michigan in comparing this weekend to what
they did last weekend, and they played Michigan back to
the back games. This is a Michigan team that put
up sixteen in a looted eleven in a week two
weeks ago. Last week they played a four to one
two one game. Both of those games, if the over
(03:28):
unders were six, would have gone under. So that is
my only a little bit of concern that I think
that Western.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
Is more comfortable playing the lower scoring games.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
I think that they can put up goals, but I
don't think that it kind of fits their style enough.
It certainly fits Denver's, but we just saw Western basically
shut down a Michigan team that the offense was absolutely rolling.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
In going into last weekend.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
What's funny about the over under of six, by the way,
on Denver is if you look at their entire season,
they've either been five, six, or seven. Every single game
has been five, six or seven, with the one game
against Achorage with rostanda season.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Acorage four to one.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
Northeastern five to two, five to two, Wisconsin four two
sixty one six nothing, five to one, Yale or one
four one, Lindenwood five to two, three two.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
It is uncanny how they dance around the six. Let's
take a look at Minnesota Duluth.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
One of the benefits of having Arizona State come into
the NCCHCS you get to go from Duluth to Arizona
in December. But on the other hand, you're the underdog
over under his six. Arizona State's minus one ninety five.
Minnesota d Luth is plus one fifty.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
And that's a really big number for Arizona State.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
And I wonder if this game was played three weeks
ago how different the line would be.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
Obviously Arizona States. The sweep of Denver.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
Has opened a lot of eyes for the for the
people setting lines and or for the computers that are
as generating lines. However you want to say it so
that there's no value on aras on the state right there.
That's one of the big problems there over under six,
I see that going over if I had to pick
(05:17):
that one. These teams like to put the score goals,
and they find ways to get up and down the ice,
and I don't feel like the Luth has been that
strong on the back end for much of the season.
Speaker 3 (05:28):
They've struggled at times. So I like the over here.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
I don't like any bet on the game though, because
I the Louth hasn't given me a lot of reason
to be putting faith in them right now that you'd
actually will age or anything.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
And right now the value on eras of the state
is way skew. Right.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
My problem with betting on the Louth right now is
that there's a top line on almost how the Louth
lines up, which if you look at the way their
wins have gone this season, they've beaten Miami twice, which Miami.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
Shades to the bottom of airwise writings.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
They beat Stonehill twice, stone Hill shades to the bottom,
but then they walked to sweat with Bowl who that's quality.
There's no other way to splice it right now. Bowl
is a quality win. But if you look at the
other results, getting swept by Minnesota, getting swept by North Dakota,
getting swept by Western Michigan, if you believe that Arizona
(06:23):
State is a legitimate team for this NCHD, and it's
going to be good, especially after that sweep over North
Dakota from earlier, and there are or gender rather not
North Dakota last week, I'm sorry, but looking at that
aspect of it, if you are buying on Arizona State,
(06:45):
you can't bet the underdogedness. And there's not enough value
on Arizona State to pick them at home with the
way the numbers line out. So to me, that element
of where to loot is at the coplined Arizona State
shading above. It makes me wary of taking Dluth in this,
But I think you're right. I think I take the
(07:05):
over here anyway, because neither's even problem scoring and any
there's kind of that thumb we developed last year, which
is Western games unless the over under like I did
that have take the olver, those games are.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
Going to go over for a while. Until the end
of the season.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
One other game involving an NCCHC team is a non
conference series, and we have Colorado College visiting Providence. C
see a slight underdog at plus one fourteen Providence minus
one forty five over under on This is a pretty
stingy five.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
Two really good defenses that have both been getting good
goaltending this year. This is an interesting coaching matchup too.
Of course, Chris Marot was part of that twenty fifteen
National Championship staff at Providence, stayed there till twenty nineteen
before we went to Michigan into Colorado College, so he's
familiar with Nate Lehmann. He's familiar with Providence's style, and
(08:02):
Nate Lehman is probably familiar, very familiar with Chris Mayo too.
So you have one of these coaching matchups that always
intrigues me because there's not a lot of secrets between
these two approaches. I like the line here. This is
one that you'd want to bet if you if you're
leaning either way, because Providence is good value at one
(08:25):
at minus one forty five, and then of course CC
the road underdog at plus one fourteen, now the over
under at five and being shaded toward the under. It's
minus one twenty on the under, minus one ten on
the over. These people really think we're going to see
a one nothing, two to one, or three to one
(08:45):
game here, and I don't know that I disagree.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
I'm with you to the under.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
I think that they're both of these teams, and especially
Providence has been abled to put up a style that
has implemented.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
A low scoring game.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
I know they had a highest scoring game against the
un h but I look at like the UMass win
when the even Boston College with only five goals win
over Clason was five goals.
Speaker 3 (09:12):
Saint Lawrens win was a two to one win.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
So I also think we're not talking about Providence as
a team aduth, especially those of us here out East,
because they tend to get lost in a Hockey East
that has three or four good stories already this year,
we Boston Callers, We're going to talk about Boston College
all year because they are who they are.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
May We're going to talk about me all year.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
We've been talking about UMass Lowell, we being the greater
college hockey community and the fact that Lowell has been
a pleasant surprise. Providence gets lost in that shuffle, which
is surprising for a team that's ten and three and
has seventeen points already in Hockey East.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
So I really Providence is a dark or.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
Sitting on the outside of the Eastern conversation because they're
not really a dark horse. And I think this is
going to be a big weekend specifically for Providence to
shore up some position against a Colorado College team that
everybody goes is pretty good chrisspt Prison. So splitles was
(10:18):
a really good weekend of hockey. Split with or the
game against Western, we're really good weekend of hockey. So
I'm on board with I think he's gonna be all
those coring game first of all. But I think that
that you're going to get good value on Providence, largely
because Colorado College with that number at hold for Providence
(10:42):
at minus one forty five is good value because everything
kind of skews away.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
From Providence right now.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
And with that, we will take a break and come
back and look at a couple of Big ten teams
plus our Pizza money game. This is usc Cho edge,
and we're back with Usccho edge. A couple of games
in the Big Ten are going to be on our list,
and the first one, which should be a game everybody
(11:09):
will be interested in, is Michigan at Minnesota. Michigan is
plus one fourteen, Minnesota is minus one forty five, and
with my less than expert eyes, six and a half
on the over under seems pretty good too.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
Yeah, that one could have gone to seven, to be
honest with you, and I would have been okay, probably.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
Even taking the over and seven and a half these seems.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
They played a bunch last year, including in the Big
Ten tournament that was a two to one game, but
all the regular season games were over eight when they played.
That's when you've got to take a look at Actually,
I take it back. There was one two to two
tie early in the season last year, so I think
that six and a half I'd be hammering the over here.
Speaker 3 (11:54):
I like Minnesota right now. I like the way that
they're playing.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
They have just one loss since the Icebreaker tournament.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
It's a pretty good resume at this point.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Now that Michigan is slipping up here, they're finding ways
to win games. I thought they had a great bounced
back last weekend after losing the Friday night game on
the road at Western Michigan to come back to Yost
and win a two to one game, a close, slow
scoring game. So I talk here, I am talking about
low scoring games. When it comes to Michigan. I don't
(12:23):
see this being a low scoring series. I see these
teams putting up eight to ten goals a night at least.
I think the biggest thing with Minnesota right now is
that if you look at the schedule and you look
at what Minnesota's had through every single win, and there
are a lot of them, looks like he gets the
quality of bone and they have played some real battles
(12:44):
over the course of the year. And I understand that
Notre Dad hair Wise number and Notre d Eggs. Even
the way that things are wisperconsin those three teams are
getting yanked up by the rest of the Big Ten,
but still coming in from teams that are that are
giving the sort of their best shot. Alaska went into
that series of Mary. If you wanted to get Minnesota,
(13:06):
it's an absolute best shot.
Speaker 3 (13:08):
Benidji was gonna do that.
Speaker 1 (13:10):
So to me, this weekend brings a Minnesota team that
is incredibly battled tested at hold against a Michigan team
that is also battle tested. But I also just like
the way that Minnesota is playing right now. If I
think they're gonna I think they're gonna play again a
lot this year.
Speaker 3 (13:29):
I know they in the two games of February.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
He goes, I suspect they will probably play again at
some point in the Big Ten tournament.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
I believe later in the tournament.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
But right now with the game, with the games at Minnesota,
I think the fact that Michigan is very good is
all the odds a bit down on Minnesota, which is
a good thing because now you're going to get Minnesota
at minus one forty five, where for will Wisconsin you'd
probably up around one to seventy five or two hundred
and twenty five, one of the larger numbers.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
But I also agree on the over under.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
I think from Golding Over, I think there's gonna be
a lot of goal and I think there's one that
usually tends eleve for fun, like worried for fun.
Speaker 3 (14:06):
There's going to be goals everywhere.
Speaker 1 (14:08):
By the way, can I fact check one of your
stats there, please, Minnesota. I'll start with the Michigan Michigan's
strength of schedule to date is third best in the country.
Minnesota's strength of schedule to date twenty third best in
the country. I still stand by it, but I think
that's when you get pulled down by teams that are
(14:30):
Saint Thomas is currently what in the fifties, I think
in the pairwise, So you take that weekend out, I'd
love to do the map on that. I do think
Michigan is very good. I do think Michigan is elite.
I know last week I've probably or a couple weeks ago,
I didn't necessarily make it out that way. I think that,
But I think that with Michigan when you one is
(14:51):
on the road. Two I know that they played on
the road at Penn State and absolutely brutalized Penn State
with the ten goals full game.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
You just really like Minnesota at all in this.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
If it were maybe at Michigan, I'd be talking about
this with the same facts about Michigan, how everybody's going
to give Michigan their best and all that.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
But it's in Minnesota, and I think that.
Speaker 1 (15:15):
Is the biggest differentiation right now, because Minnesota is playing
at such an a reef level and it's at whole
that I think is the is the summary statement.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
That I want to go with Michigan State heads out
for two weekends on the road. They start out with
a pair at the Coal Center against Wisconsin over unders
five and a half on this one Michigan State minus
two ten Wisconsin plus one sixty.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
This is arguably I'm not decide.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
I want to say this in disrespect to Lyndenwood, who
was Michigan State's opponing last weekend, but since becoming a
number one team in the country, this is the test.
This is the first big test, first Big ten weekend
as number one team. I have a lot of faith
in this Michigan State team right now. I don't have
(16:08):
much in Wisconsin. So I would have a hard time,
really difficult time trying to justify a bet on Wisconsin,
even at home, even at plus one sixty. I just
I can't. I can't in good conscience bet on them yet.
Will Michigan State get caught up in their headlines and
(16:29):
reading headlines? Maybe, But at the same time, I really
just I look at this and just say, if you're
gonna make a bet, you're gonna make a wager on
this one. I'd be going after Michigan State. There's just
no value on Wisconsin. But there's not a lot of
value in this entire series. Yeah, I mean that was
gonna be. My point is, I don't think there's value.
(16:52):
I would have loved Wisconsin to be a piece of
money bet Verge just don't see the odds they bring
good at plus one sixty if it were if these
were longer odds, Wisconsin to me would be a good
pizza money bed, largely because you're.
Speaker 3 (17:04):
Just throwing your money down and hoping for the best.
Speaker 1 (17:06):
And if you look, you go back over some of
the things that we talked about over the last month,
go back to that Notarad weekend when both teams were
fighting it pretty bad and then they split. I felt
like coming out of that it was either the weekend
before might have been a Denver weekend when Mike Castaing
said we've got to strip it down or we got
to restart it, we got to whatever it was the
(17:28):
turn he said Wisconsin was in a bad spot.
Speaker 3 (17:31):
Then they had a play in Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
So if you remove Minnesota from that, I feel like
the last four games have been a much better indication
that Wisconsin's having to put things together. That said, Michigan
State is the real test, and you can't.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
Rightfully pick Michigan State.
Speaker 1 (17:49):
You can't rightfully pick Wisconsin to beat Michigan State though
they are at home, and I think that is is
always the big thing, especially when Wisconsin has government really
good job of drag attendants. I think they're third of
the country in attendance right now or one of the
top three at attendants. So I look at the series
and I just don't want to pick it because I
(18:11):
don't want to take Michigan State. But I also really
can't in my right brain, and by and take was
caused of us the pizza money and the odds just
aren't there.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
Speaking of pizza money or a pizza money bet his
Colgate at Cornell a fairly short drive, but some long
odds over under on this one is five. Colgate is
plus two seventy Cornell is minus three seventy five. Can
I just say I think Colgate is better than those numbers. Say,
I'll let you guys take it from there.
Speaker 3 (18:40):
I one hundred percent agree with you. Ed.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
Yes, they got smacked around a little bit by Penn
State after losing three to two. They played the Tuesday
Wednesday before Thanksgiving, So after losing three two on Tuesday night,
then they got really hammered seven to one. It's their
only lopsided loss of the season. They had a five
two loss earlier to Lowell in a six to two
(19:03):
loss to Connecticut, but for the most part they've been then.
Speaker 3 (19:07):
I want to just go through some of their wins.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
They beat Quinnipiet, they beat Princeton, They've beat Harvard, they
tied and won the shootout against Dartmouth.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
These are the teams we're talking about. Is the better
teams in the ECAC.
Speaker 1 (19:21):
So they're winning games, big games against big teams in
their conference. I got to look at this one and say,
this is not bad value to know that you can
lay one hundred dollars with the thought that you could.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
Win two seventy.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
So three seventy takeaway at the end of the day,
that's pretty good.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
Now, Cornell, despite this is.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
A home and home series, these are travel partners, so
they're gonna put there so they'll start on Friday night,
and I think that's a lot of the reason we're
seeing the odds skewed so far in favor of Cornell's
because they're the home team. But it's not like they
are guns blazing of late. You look at their last
five games. They have one win, they have two losses,
(20:09):
two ties. You just you get into it and you say, Okay,
why is Cornell so heavily favored?
Speaker 3 (20:16):
Is it just the whole mice? Maybe?
Speaker 1 (20:18):
But I think these odds are just off, and it's
not often that we've been saying that this year.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
I feel like the AI generators and the human odds
makers who might be out there have done great jobs
this season.
Speaker 3 (20:34):
This one just feels really off to me. In the
over under it five.
Speaker 1 (20:38):
I get it, these teams don't account for a lot
of goals, but there's not a lot of games that
either one of these teams that's played this year that
has stayed under five. And that's both teams I'm talking about,
So keep all of that in mind. I don't know
if I'd typed the over under, but I would be
hammering Colgate. I believe that Cornell, based on the fact
(21:03):
that there's smaller sample size, winds up with larger odds
be still because of those two wins against North Dakota.
They only played ten games, and of their four wins,
two of them more against North Dakota, So they don't
think the odds have or the ADYI computer generators.
Speaker 3 (21:20):
The odds makers have.
Speaker 1 (21:22):
Caught up to Cornell yet, and Cornell, to be clear,
started the season as well as things would have expected,
with the exception of having to only one point from Yale.
I think the the more arguable point about Cold League
not only is the travel part aspect, the way that
(21:43):
they play, the fact that they've been good also beaten teams.
Colgate has at times when they've been hot, so they're
beat Brown.
Speaker 3 (21:52):
First game of the season for Brown. Brown came out
very hot. In that game, they gave up the two goals.
Speaker 1 (21:58):
But they play in the first Coldgate sport twice in
the first period, but Brown playing well. First game of
the season, Coldvig beets the Harvard was playing exceptionally well.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
Colgate beat him. Dartmann probably the best team at ECAC
right now. Bulgate takes some of the.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
Shootout and wins the shootout, having to come from behind twice.
I think more than twice, but twice, specifically the third period.
Princeton playing well, they beat President QUITEPAC.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Same idea.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
Forget the Penn State series because it was two days
after the quite Pac series ends. Given everything, I don't
think Colgate's intimidated by a lineup. I don't think the
atmosphere line has been due a whole hearted a lot
for Colgate.
Speaker 3 (22:43):
I really like Colgate. It's great value. I think it's
the over under. I might not touch it here, but.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
I think plus two seventy is just a phenomenal value
on Holgate.
Speaker 2 (22:54):
That'll wrap it up for Jim Connolly, for Dan Rubin.
I'm Ed Trevsker and this has been USh your edge
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to usccho Edge for Friday.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
December sixth, twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
I'm ed trevsk alongside Jim Connolly and Dan Rubin some
interesting action, and we're going to start out in the NCCHC.
Denver is at Western Michigan, and on that game, the
over under is six. The money line Denver minus one
fifty four and Western Michigan plus one twenty.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
This is maybe one of the best series will have
this weekend. And you're not gonna see this price on
Denver very often not saying that it's good value at
minus one fifty four on the road, but you're not.
You're going to see more prices in the two hundred
and two twenty two twenty five rats for Denver most
(01:00):
this season. You're getting the best some of the best
value you'll get on the Pioneers. At the same time, though,
Western's playing really well, just coming off of a fantastic
two game series where they split each team winning at
home against Michigan last week. It's one of these series
(01:20):
that you know that both teams can put up goals.
So the over under of six is one that I
would have to favor. The over here and I believe
it is the over. The over is actually slightly weighted.
It's minus one twenty five and the over minus one
oh five on the unders. I do think that as
(01:41):
I look at this one, I like Denver here. I
don't mind the value I'm getting, and if I took
the over under, I'd be taking the over.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
I don't really see a difference between either one of
these teams in terms of what you might get from them,
which is to say that both are very good oppipenses,
both a very good defenses, both a very good special team.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
Both the keep keep power plays from scoring.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Both but on both proud player Belty kill as we
get again.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
So anytime that you're getting close to.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
A pick on Denver right now, I think that is
about what you're going to get for value in terms
of you're not going to get them under minus one
seventy five or minus two hundred a lot this year.
But I just genuinely think that it's also one of
those I just love them, I just love the matchup,
and so I tend to shade to the over on
(02:36):
this largely because I think both teams are just playing
well and I think there's gonna be even a three
free situation. That's a bush on it over under a six.
So I think you obviously taking the full punch money mine.
Now you're getting into the you know who scores in
an overtime or who was a shootout. So to me,
that is get you to the get the over under.
(03:00):
I'm not necessarily enamored with the money line, but I
don't think.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
You're can get better value on Denver Resid this year. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
My only hesitation I will say on the over under
is taking Western Michigan in comparing this weekend to what
they did last weekend, and they played Michigan back to
the back games. This is a Michigan team that put
up sixteen in a looted eleven in a week two
weeks ago. Last week they played a four to one
two one game. Both of those games, if the over
(03:28):
unders were six, would have gone under. So that is
my only a little bit of concern that I think
that Western.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
Is more comfortable playing the lower scoring games.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
I think that they can put up goals, but I
don't think that it kind of fits their style enough.
It certainly fits Denver's, but we just saw Western basically
shut down a Michigan team that the offense was absolutely rolling.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
In going into last weekend.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
What's funny about the over under of six, by the way,
on Denver is if you look at their entire season,
they've either been five, six, or seven. Every single game
has been five, six or seven, with the one game
against Achorage with rostanda season.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Acorage four to one.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
Northeastern five to two, five to two, Wisconsin four two
sixty one six nothing, five to one, Yale or one
four one, Lindenwood five to two, three two.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
It is uncanny how they dance around the six. Let's
take a look at Minnesota Duluth.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
One of the benefits of having Arizona State come into
the NCCHCS you get to go from Duluth to Arizona
in December. But on the other hand, you're the underdog
over under his six. Arizona State's minus one ninety five.
Minnesota d Luth is plus one fifty.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
And that's a really big number for Arizona State.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
And I wonder if this game was played three weeks
ago how different the line would be.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
Obviously Arizona States. The sweep of Denver.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
Has opened a lot of eyes for the for the
people setting lines and or for the computers that are
as generating lines. However you want to say it so
that there's no value on aras on the state right there.
That's one of the big problems there over under six,
I see that going over if I had to pick
(05:17):
that one. These teams like to put the score goals,
and they find ways to get up and down the ice,
and I don't feel like the Luth has been that
strong on the back end for much of the season.
Speaker 3 (05:28):
They've struggled at times. So I like the over here.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
I don't like any bet on the game though, because
I the Louth hasn't given me a lot of reason
to be putting faith in them right now that you'd
actually will age or anything.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
And right now the value on eras of the state
is way skew. Right.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
My problem with betting on the Louth right now is
that there's a top line on almost how the Louth
lines up, which if you look at the way their
wins have gone this season, they've beaten Miami twice, which Miami.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
Shades to the bottom of airwise writings.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
They beat Stonehill twice, stone Hill shades to the bottom,
but then they walked to sweat with Bowl who that's quality.
There's no other way to splice it right now. Bowl
is a quality win. But if you look at the
other results, getting swept by Minnesota, getting swept by North Dakota,
getting swept by Western Michigan, if you believe that Arizona
(06:23):
State is a legitimate team for this NCHD, and it's
going to be good, especially after that sweep over North
Dakota from earlier, and there are or gender rather not
North Dakota last week, I'm sorry, but looking at that
aspect of it, if you are buying on Arizona State,
(06:45):
you can't bet the underdogedness. And there's not enough value
on Arizona State to pick them at home with the
way the numbers line out. So to me, that element
of where to loot is at the coplined Arizona State
shading above. It makes me wary of taking Dluth in this,
But I think you're right. I think I take the
(07:05):
over here anyway, because neither's even problem scoring and any
there's kind of that thumb we developed last year, which
is Western games unless the over under like I did
that have take the olver, those games are.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
Going to go over for a while. Until the end
of the season.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
One other game involving an NCCHC team is a non
conference series, and we have Colorado College visiting Providence. C
see a slight underdog at plus one fourteen Providence minus
one forty five over under on This is a pretty
stingy five.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
Two really good defenses that have both been getting good
goaltending this year. This is an interesting coaching matchup too.
Of course, Chris Marot was part of that twenty fifteen
National Championship staff at Providence, stayed there till twenty nineteen
before we went to Michigan into Colorado College, so he's
familiar with Nate Lehmann. He's familiar with Providence's style, and
(08:02):
Nate Lehman is probably familiar, very familiar with Chris Mayo too.
So you have one of these coaching matchups that always
intrigues me because there's not a lot of secrets between
these two approaches. I like the line here. This is
one that you'd want to bet if you if you're
leaning either way, because Providence is good value at one
(08:25):
at minus one forty five, and then of course CC
the road underdog at plus one fourteen, now the over
under at five and being shaded toward the under. It's
minus one twenty on the under, minus one ten on
the over. These people really think we're going to see
a one nothing, two to one, or three to one
(08:45):
game here, and I don't know that I disagree.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
I'm with you to the under.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
I think that they're both of these teams, and especially
Providence has been abled to put up a style that
has implemented.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
A low scoring game.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
I know they had a highest scoring game against the
un h but I look at like the UMass win
when the even Boston College with only five goals win
over Clason was five goals.
Speaker 3 (09:12):
Saint Lawrens win was a two to one win.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
So I also think we're not talking about Providence as
a team aduth, especially those of us here out East,
because they tend to get lost in a Hockey East
that has three or four good stories already this year,
we Boston Callers, We're going to talk about Boston College
all year because they are who they are.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
May We're going to talk about me all year.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
We've been talking about UMass Lowell, we being the greater
college hockey community and the fact that Lowell has been
a pleasant surprise. Providence gets lost in that shuffle, which
is surprising for a team that's ten and three and
has seventeen points already in Hockey East.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
So I really Providence is a dark or.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
Sitting on the outside of the Eastern conversation because they're
not really a dark horse. And I think this is
going to be a big weekend specifically for Providence to
shore up some position against a Colorado College team that
everybody goes is pretty good chrisspt Prison. So splitles was
(10:18):
a really good weekend of hockey. Split with or the
game against Western, we're really good weekend of hockey. So
I'm on board with I think he's gonna be all
those coring game first of all. But I think that
that you're going to get good value on Providence, largely
because Colorado College with that number at hold for Providence
(10:42):
at minus one forty five is good value because everything
kind of skews away.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
From Providence right now.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
And with that, we will take a break and come
back and look at a couple of Big ten teams
plus our Pizza money game. This is usc Cho edge,
and we're back with Usccho edge. A couple of games
in the Big Ten are going to be on our list,
and the first one, which should be a game everybody
(11:09):
will be interested in, is Michigan at Minnesota. Michigan is
plus one fourteen, Minnesota is minus one forty five, and
with my less than expert eyes, six and a half
on the over under seems pretty good too.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
Yeah, that one could have gone to seven, to be
honest with you, and I would have been okay, probably.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
Even taking the over and seven and a half these seems.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
They played a bunch last year, including in the Big
Ten tournament that was a two to one game, but
all the regular season games were over eight when they played.
That's when you've got to take a look at Actually,
I take it back. There was one two to two
tie early in the season last year, so I think
that six and a half I'd be hammering the over here.
Speaker 3 (11:54):
I like Minnesota right now. I like the way that
they're playing.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
They have just one loss since the Icebreaker tournament.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
It's a pretty good resume at this point.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Now that Michigan is slipping up here, they're finding ways
to win games. I thought they had a great bounced
back last weekend after losing the Friday night game on
the road at Western Michigan to come back to Yost
and win a two to one game, a close, slow
scoring game. So I talk here, I am talking about
low scoring games. When it comes to Michigan. I don't
(12:23):
see this being a low scoring series. I see these
teams putting up eight to ten goals a night at least.
I think the biggest thing with Minnesota right now is
that if you look at the schedule and you look
at what Minnesota's had through every single win, and there
are a lot of them, looks like he gets the
quality of bone and they have played some real battles
(12:44):
over the course of the year. And I understand that
Notre Dad hair Wise number and Notre d Eggs. Even
the way that things are wisperconsin those three teams are
getting yanked up by the rest of the Big Ten,
but still coming in from teams that are that are
giving the sort of their best shot. Alaska went into
that series of Mary. If you wanted to get Minnesota,
(13:06):
it's an absolute best shot.
Speaker 3 (13:08):
Benidji was gonna do that.
Speaker 1 (13:10):
So to me, this weekend brings a Minnesota team that
is incredibly battled tested at hold against a Michigan team
that is also battle tested. But I also just like
the way that Minnesota is playing right now. If I
think they're gonna I think they're gonna play again a
lot this year.
Speaker 3 (13:29):
I know they in the two games of February.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
He goes, I suspect they will probably play again at
some point in the Big Ten tournament.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
I believe later in the tournament.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
But right now with the game, with the games at Minnesota,
I think the fact that Michigan is very good is
all the odds a bit down on Minnesota, which is
a good thing because now you're going to get Minnesota
at minus one forty five, where for will Wisconsin you'd
probably up around one to seventy five or two hundred
and twenty five, one of the larger numbers.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
But I also agree on the over under.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
I think from Golding Over, I think there's gonna be
a lot of goal and I think there's one that
usually tends eleve for fun, like worried for fun.
Speaker 3 (14:06):
There's going to be goals everywhere.
Speaker 1 (14:08):
By the way, can I fact check one of your
stats there, please, Minnesota. I'll start with the Michigan Michigan's
strength of schedule to date is third best in the country.
Minnesota's strength of schedule to date twenty third best in
the country. I still stand by it, but I think
that's when you get pulled down by teams that are
(14:30):
Saint Thomas is currently what in the fifties, I think
in the pairwise, So you take that weekend out, I'd
love to do the map on that. I do think
Michigan is very good. I do think Michigan is elite.
I know last week I've probably or a couple weeks ago,
I didn't necessarily make it out that way. I think that,
But I think that with Michigan when you one is
(14:51):
on the road. Two I know that they played on
the road at Penn State and absolutely brutalized Penn State
with the ten goals full game.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
You just really like Minnesota at all in this.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
If it were maybe at Michigan, I'd be talking about
this with the same facts about Michigan, how everybody's going
to give Michigan their best and all that.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
But it's in Minnesota, and I think that.
Speaker 1 (15:15):
Is the biggest differentiation right now, because Minnesota is playing
at such an a reef level and it's at whole
that I think is the is the summary statement.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
That I want to go with Michigan State heads out
for two weekends on the road. They start out with
a pair at the Coal Center against Wisconsin over unders
five and a half on this one Michigan State minus
two ten Wisconsin plus one sixty.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
This is arguably I'm not decide.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
I want to say this in disrespect to Lyndenwood, who
was Michigan State's opponing last weekend, but since becoming a
number one team in the country, this is the test.
This is the first big test, first Big ten weekend
as number one team. I have a lot of faith
in this Michigan State team right now. I don't have
(16:08):
much in Wisconsin. So I would have a hard time,
really difficult time trying to justify a bet on Wisconsin,
even at home, even at plus one sixty. I just
I can't. I can't in good conscience bet on them yet.
Will Michigan State get caught up in their headlines and
(16:29):
reading headlines? Maybe, But at the same time, I really
just I look at this and just say, if you're
gonna make a bet, you're gonna make a wager on
this one. I'd be going after Michigan State. There's just
no value on Wisconsin. But there's not a lot of
value in this entire series. Yeah, I mean that was
gonna be. My point is, I don't think there's value.
(16:52):
I would have loved Wisconsin to be a piece of
money bet Verge just don't see the odds they bring
good at plus one sixty if it were if these
were longer odds, Wisconsin to me would be a good
pizza money bed, largely because you're.
Speaker 3 (17:04):
Just throwing your money down and hoping for the best.
Speaker 1 (17:06):
And if you look, you go back over some of
the things that we talked about over the last month,
go back to that Notarad weekend when both teams were
fighting it pretty bad and then they split. I felt
like coming out of that it was either the weekend
before might have been a Denver weekend when Mike Castaing
said we've got to strip it down or we got
to restart it, we got to whatever it was the
(17:28):
turn he said Wisconsin was in a bad spot.
Speaker 3 (17:31):
Then they had a play in Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
So if you remove Minnesota from that, I feel like
the last four games have been a much better indication
that Wisconsin's having to put things together. That said, Michigan
State is the real test, and you can't.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
Rightfully pick Michigan State.
Speaker 1 (17:49):
You can't rightfully pick Wisconsin to beat Michigan State though
they are at home, and I think that is is
always the big thing, especially when Wisconsin has government really
good job of drag attendants. I think they're third of
the country in attendance right now or one of the
top three at attendants. So I look at the series
and I just don't want to pick it because I
(18:11):
don't want to take Michigan State. But I also really
can't in my right brain, and by and take was
caused of us the pizza money and the odds just
aren't there.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
Speaking of pizza money or a pizza money bet his
Colgate at Cornell a fairly short drive, but some long
odds over under on this one is five. Colgate is
plus two seventy Cornell is minus three seventy five. Can
I just say I think Colgate is better than those numbers. Say,
I'll let you guys take it from there.
Speaker 3 (18:40):
I one hundred percent agree with you. Ed.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
Yes, they got smacked around a little bit by Penn
State after losing three to two. They played the Tuesday
Wednesday before Thanksgiving, So after losing three two on Tuesday night,
then they got really hammered seven to one. It's their
only lopsided loss of the season. They had a five
two loss earlier to Lowell in a six to two
(19:03):
loss to Connecticut, but for the most part they've been then.
Speaker 3 (19:07):
I want to just go through some of their wins.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
They beat Quinnipiet, they beat Princeton, They've beat Harvard, they
tied and won the shootout against Dartmouth.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
These are the teams we're talking about. Is the better
teams in the ECAC.
Speaker 1 (19:21):
So they're winning games, big games against big teams in
their conference. I got to look at this one and say,
this is not bad value to know that you can
lay one hundred dollars with the thought that you could.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
Win two seventy.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
So three seventy takeaway at the end of the day,
that's pretty good.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
Now, Cornell, despite this is.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
A home and home series, these are travel partners, so
they're gonna put there so they'll start on Friday night,
and I think that's a lot of the reason we're
seeing the odds skewed so far in favor of Cornell's
because they're the home team. But it's not like they
are guns blazing of late. You look at their last
five games. They have one win, they have two losses,
(20:09):
two ties. You just you get into it and you say, Okay,
why is Cornell so heavily favored?
Speaker 3 (20:16):
Is it just the whole mice? Maybe?
Speaker 1 (20:18):
But I think these odds are just off, and it's
not often that we've been saying that this year.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
I feel like the AI generators and the human odds
makers who might be out there have done great jobs
this season.
Speaker 3 (20:34):
This one just feels really off to me. In the
over under it five.
Speaker 1 (20:38):
I get it, these teams don't account for a lot
of goals, but there's not a lot of games that
either one of these teams that's played this year that
has stayed under five. And that's both teams I'm talking about,
So keep all of that in mind. I don't know
if I'd typed the over under, but I would be
hammering Colgate. I believe that Cornell, based on the fact
(21:03):
that there's smaller sample size, winds up with larger odds
be still because of those two wins against North Dakota.
They only played ten games, and of their four wins,
two of them more against North Dakota, So they don't
think the odds have or the ADYI computer generators.
Speaker 3 (21:20):
The odds makers have.
Speaker 1 (21:22):
Caught up to Cornell yet, and Cornell, to be clear,
started the season as well as things would have expected,
with the exception of having to only one point from Yale.
I think the the more arguable point about Cold League
not only is the travel part aspect, the way that
(21:43):
they play, the fact that they've been good also beaten teams.
Colgate has at times when they've been hot, so they're
beat Brown.
Speaker 3 (21:52):
First game of the season for Brown. Brown came out
very hot. In that game, they gave up the two goals.
Speaker 1 (21:58):
But they play in the first Coldgate sport twice in
the first period, but Brown playing well. First game of
the season, Coldvig beets the Harvard was playing exceptionally well.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
Colgate beat him. Dartmann probably the best team at ECAC
right now. Bulgate takes some of the.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
Shootout and wins the shootout, having to come from behind twice.
I think more than twice, but twice, specifically the third period.
Princeton playing well, they beat President QUITEPAC.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Same idea.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
Forget the Penn State series because it was two days
after the quite Pac series ends. Given everything, I don't
think Colgate's intimidated by a lineup. I don't think the
atmosphere line has been due a whole hearted a lot
for Colgate.
Speaker 3 (22:43):
I really like Colgate. It's great value. I think it's
the over under. I might not touch it here, but.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
I think plus two seventy is just a phenomenal value
on Holgate.
Speaker 2 (22:54):
That'll wrap it up for Jim Connolly, for Dan Rubin.
I'm Ed Trevsker and this has been USh your edge
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