November 7, 2025 • 26 mins
USCHO Edge hosts Jim Connelly (@jimmyconnelly), Dan Rubin (@DanRubin12) and Ed Trefzger (@EdTrefzger) look at how the championship futures – odds of a team winning the national championship – have moved over the first month of the season.
This episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Frozen Four, April 9 and 11 in Las Vegas. Tickets: https://ncaa.com/mfrozenfour
Find all of our podcasts at USCHO.com/podcasts
This episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Frozen Four, April 9 and 11 in Las Vegas. Tickets: https://ncaa.com/mfrozenfour
Find all of our podcasts at USCHO.com/podcasts
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Uscho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to us Cho Edge for Friday, November seventh, twenty
twenty five. I'm ed Trevskier alongside Jim Connelly and Dan Rubin.
Our podcast is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Frozen four
April ninth and eleventh in Las Vegas. Get your tickets
now att NCAA dot com slash m Frozen four. Well, guys,
(00:36):
we started the season by looking at team futures. That
is what the oddsmakers think is the chance of a
team making it to and winning the championship game. There's
been some movement there, and strangely enough, we also don't
have any individual game odds available to us as we
record this on Thursday, So we're going to see where
(01:00):
things have moved over the last month. Then the top
four stay the same, but a little bit of movement there.
Penn State and Michigan State were plus five hundred to
start the season. They're plus five point fifty right now,
and Michigan and Boston University. Michigan has moved up a
bit from plus one thousand to plus seven hundred and
(01:21):
BU from plus eight hundred to plus seven hundred. So
why don't we start with those top four teams, and
you know that would be a pretty good, pretty good
frozen four, although our friends in the NCCHC might not agree.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
I look at some of.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
These numbers in kind of shake my head at some.
I mean, listen, the ones you mentioned Penn State in
Michigan State both being plus five point fifty.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
That makes sense. But BU has not had a strong start.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
And they've gone from plus eight hundred to plus seven hundred,
so their odds are actually getting better to win the
national championship, and they just gave up thirteen goals last weekend.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
To me and I that one makes me shake my head.
Speaker 4 (02:02):
But as you look.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
At that top four, it's the same top four that
we had back when this season started. The numbers have
changed a little bit. The Michigan number is probably the
one that has changed the most, you know, going from
eleven hundred to seven hundred. So the odds on Michigan
no surprise when you're nine to one out of the gate.
(02:25):
They've gone in a direction that probably makes the value
disappear even more so. I think it's interesting. I think
the BU number really confuses me. But everything else that
you just mentioned is spot on.
Speaker 5 (02:39):
Yeah, I think when I look at the numbers, I
kind of feel the same way.
Speaker 4 (02:43):
I know.
Speaker 5 (02:44):
I wasn't on that first week, that first episode and
when you guys discussed the original futures. So this is
kind of my first foray into what I'm seeing out
of the numbers. And while the shifting hasn't necessarily been
there for me, what I will say is some of
the numbers for me just don't align. And maybe that's
because we're in November, and maybe that's because people are
(03:06):
still betting, people are still throwing money down on their
future with their proverbial pizza money. It just doesn't align
a bit right now, which is where I think you
might be able to actually get some good value in
some of these teams based on where they are if
they are not your favorites. Like you said, Boston University
of plus seven.
Speaker 4 (03:26):
Hundred did not make a whole lot of sense.
Speaker 5 (03:27):
But further down there, it means there are going to
be teams that are playing way better for the number
that is associated with them. But unfortunately that's more current state,
right Like this is all current state that we're saying this.
Speaker 4 (03:41):
We're trying to project into the future and see things
that I don't know.
Speaker 5 (03:45):
Maybe Western Michigan isn't as good of a bet right now.
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Later isn't a bet later that they might be right now.
We just don't know.
Speaker 5 (03:52):
But that's part of the fun of, you know, looking
at the futures and seeing where they're moving.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
Well, let's take a look at the teams following them
and how that's moved around. Back on October tewod Minnesota
was fifth at plus thirteen hundred. They've dropped, but only
to plus eighteen hundred right now. Denver, North Dakota, BC,
Western Michigan, Minnesota and Maine follow Denver plus thirteen hundred
(04:19):
and Maine at plus two thousand. It has been just
sort of some slight movement there. Maine was plus two
thousand to start out with. It seems to me, though, Jim,
that maybe these numbers are not reflecting some of the
early season difficulties some of these teams have had. You
mentioned BU it's been rough out of the gate for
(04:40):
both BC and Minnesota, and.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
I actually thought that the Minnesota number would have moved
more significantly plus thirteen hundred to start the season. Plus
eighteen hundred now not a ton of increased value. Boston
College plus thirteen hundred to start plus fifteen hundred. Now,
I just don't see a ton of movement, and that.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
You know, I I to find the teams that have
added a lot of value.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
This top of the list as I look at it
just doesn't have a ton you know. Do I think
that you know, Minnesota Duluth which opened at five thousand,
there's still a thirty five hundred. I think that's really good.
That's a great value play right there. If you can
put one hundred dollars down now to potentially win thirty
(05:28):
six hundred come April, that's not bad.
Speaker 4 (05:32):
You know.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
As we get into some of the real, real long shots,
the pizza money bets of this, I think that we
see some better value, some really good value. But it's
it's at this point to tie your money up for
a long time.
Speaker 4 (05:45):
A lot of these numbers don't work out yet.
Speaker 5 (05:48):
No, and and and that's and that's why we more
look at the futures bet and say that there's a
sweet spot it during the season in which you you
really want to place the bet down, or at least
that's what I say.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
I don't want to.
Speaker 5 (05:59):
I don't want to class by that for anyone else
on this podcast. But that's the way that I know
I talk about it. You don't want to be betting
your futures this early in a season, at least I
don't think you do.
Speaker 4 (06:10):
I think it's fun.
Speaker 5 (06:11):
I think there's a part of it where you know, hey,
we'll bet the New England Patriots over their win total
back during the preseason, and it gives you something to
watch during the whole season.
Speaker 4 (06:22):
That's one thing.
Speaker 5 (06:23):
But nothing that happens right now will impact how.
Speaker 4 (06:28):
The team is playing at the end of the season.
Speaker 5 (06:31):
Sands maybe who might be and to that, who might
be going into the tournament on a role, who might
be winning the national tournament.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
I look at Western Michigan last year.
Speaker 5 (06:40):
I don't think they were on my map at all
when we discussed futures, and they go out and win
the national championships. So to me, this is more just
trying to figure out the perception of where your team
is at and then trying to strike a little bit
maybe when the Irons hot. Like I do look at
Boston College and Minnesota and say those are two teams
that are likely to turn it around just based on
(07:01):
talent as they gel over the course of the year.
I've said that about Boston College a lot this year,
where I've said that BC was a team that I
expected to have its lumps at the beginning of the
season as it was starting to gel as the roster
was filling into its new roles.
Speaker 4 (07:16):
Same with Minnesota, new players, new roles.
Speaker 5 (07:18):
Those guys need to figure out how to play together
as a team. By the same token, I think they're
gonna figure it out. I think by the end of
the season they're gonna look very different, provided they haven't
lost enough space. You look at some of those numbers,
and I think that's where the numbers may not be
done cratering. By the same token, come the end of
the year, they might actually be favorites. So if you
(07:40):
really think that a Minnesota is the favorite to win
the national championship, plus eighteen hundred.
Speaker 4 (07:45):
Might not be the worst look because they might.
Speaker 5 (07:49):
Be at at their.
Speaker 4 (07:51):
Lowest low right now.
Speaker 5 (07:52):
So that's kind of what you're also trying to determine
along the way. Personally speaking, I think Minnesota should be
significantly higher. I shocked they were still in the Paul
two weeks ago, but they're out now.
Speaker 4 (08:03):
But that's beside the point. So that's just kind of,
you know, separate interpretation on it.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
We've got more to discuss, but I want to get
our break in right now, and then I've got a
question I'm going to throw at you guys. This podcast
episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Frozen four, April
ninth and eleventh in Las Vegas.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
Glack.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Today we're fucking men's ice hockey.
Speaker 4 (08:29):
Open your textbooks, join.
Speaker 6 (08:31):
Thousands of other screaming fans for an in person experience.
You have to say to believe it's the NCAAA Men's
Frozen four, April ninth and eleventh in Las Vegas.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
Attendance is encouraged. Passion is mandatory.
Speaker 6 (08:44):
By your seat today at NCAA dot com slash m
frozen foour how many teams are in the Men's Frozen four?
Speaker 4 (08:52):
Please leave me? We're back with us. C cho Ed Joe.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
I wanted to ask you about trying to guess some
teams that might work their way up, and I'll use
the example of Penn State. Nobody had them, I don't
think on the map for the Frozen four last year
back in January, and they just went on a tier
and got there and of course that's reflected throwing Gavin
(09:20):
McKenna and some other key players on that team, and
they're where they are now. But what about a team
that has started out well and maybe turn the corner.
We'll see when they get into Big ten play. But
I'm talking about Wisconsin. They started out plus five thousand.
There's still plus five thousand. Is that a team to
look for, maybe even the best value of anybody out
(09:42):
there right now?
Speaker 3 (09:43):
I was actually pointing to that when I was looking
at these numbers as one of the better values, you know,
because when you're plus five thousand, there's still a pretty
legitimate chance that you could win. Here's the whole thing
when you're going for some of the stretch bets plus
five thousand. There another one I'll throw out, and maybe
(10:04):
I'm jumping the gun in a little here on pizza.
But Union started at plus twenty thousand. They've started the
season five to one and one and another plus fifty thousand.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
That makes no sense to me.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
But can I put one hundred dollars on them? Now?
Watch Union have a good start, maybe even get out
through Christmas where they're you know, eight nine, ten games
above five hundred, they're you know, in the top of
the ECAC it's thought of the fact that they'll probably
make the NCAA tournament, And can I sell that bet?
Speaker 1 (10:39):
You know, can I find a way.
Speaker 3 (10:40):
To either get the sports book that I bet through
to make an offer to buy me out, or can
I sell it to one of those third party companies
that sells wagers. That's when you're when you're taking fifty thousand,
you know, or odds even any odds that are probably
plus twenty thousand and fifteen twenty thousand. That's really what
(11:03):
you're hoping for, is that somehow your bet gets bought
out because you're not really But like, I think that
the price on Union right now at plus fifty thousand
is unbelievable value.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
Do I think Union can win the National Championship? Absolutely not.
So technically I think I'm probably away the money.
Speaker 7 (11:23):
But if you can get in so that someone will
offer you eight hundred dollars for that ticket, you know,
in February eight to one, on the fact that Union
could have a decent season, I don't think that that's.
Speaker 4 (11:35):
Crazy, you know, it's fine.
Speaker 5 (11:37):
I don't think we've ever actually mentioned selling your bet
in the years that we've done this podcast and specifically
with the futures, and that is a I didn't even
think of it, but that is a that is.
Speaker 4 (11:49):
A great point.
Speaker 5 (11:50):
And to me, there are plenty of teams in the
long shot category that maybe fit the bill of teams
that you can ride until you think you can sell
the stock at a high point, just like you would
in the stock market, just like you're looking at a
team and saying, hey, why don't we buy the stock
as low as possible, buy the dip, and then sell
(12:13):
it as high as possible. And for me, that team
right now is Northeastern. Northeastern. Maybe I'm jumping the gun
as well in terms of a pizza money bed at
plus ten thousand has wins over Denver and Boston College,
which I.
Speaker 4 (12:26):
Know maybe is not the type of.
Speaker 5 (12:31):
Quality win that we maybe would have expected it to
be at the beginning of the season, but they still
have them in Northeastern still has some pretty long odds.
And when you look at the way Northeastern, in popular opinion,
at least in college hockey, has jumped into the pole,
jumped up the pole, similar to way Minnesota du Luth has,
the number hasn't quite adjusted for Northeastern the way that
(12:55):
Minnesota Duluth went to plus thirty five hundred. So I'm
not sure that Northeastern is going to win an national championship.
But it's the same idea where you have this team
that is currently riding it's high at the top of
Hockey East, which is the best conference in the East.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
No ifsands or butts about it.
Speaker 5 (13:12):
You know that the team that's going to be in
the top two or three in Hockey East is going
to get into the tournament.
Speaker 4 (13:17):
You know that they're going to have a shot at
the garden. So to me, that.
Speaker 5 (13:21):
Is maybe looking to sell that bet if Northeast. If
you're buying and saying, let's ride this on Northeastern as
much as possible.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
Explain to us the mechanism of selling that bet. Say
you're doing this through a place like DraftKings, which provides
the odds for us from their website. How does that work?
Speaker 3 (13:40):
So the concept is probably simpler than we even realize.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
There are third party sites out there.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
I'm not going to try to steer anybody in one
direction over now, so I'm not going to throw any
names out, but there are companies out there that they
allow betters to Basically, they former can unity for betters
to talk amongst themselves and offer the sale of bets.
So if you know, let's say I bet Union for
(14:09):
plus fifty thousand, and Union gets to the Christmas break
and they are thirteen and five and one, let's say,
and you're saying, oh wow, Union, They're in the top
fifteen of the poll.
Speaker 4 (14:24):
Right now.
Speaker 3 (14:24):
I bet they're going to make the NCAA tournament. I
would love to make that bet now, But in February
suddenly their odds are now down to you know, plus
two thousand, not as good as plus fifty thousand. So
that means if I bet one hundred on it, I
would only make you know, twenty times the amount, whereas
(14:45):
if I bet one hundred way back now it's fifty
fifty times, about hundred times.
Speaker 4 (14:50):
I should say.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
So I look at those numbers, and I'm saying, if
I'm out there, how can I find a better price?
These third party sites, these these betters can t amongst themselves.
I have a ticket that I paid one hundred dollars for.
It's worth fifty one thousand if it hits. Does anybody
want to buy it for one thousand? Dollars and then
you get the so you're basically getting some value out
(15:14):
of it. So it's usually a third party site that
can take it. Now there are in the parlay market
when you have a multi leg parlay, say four to
five legs, and say you've got four of them that hit.
Some of these sports books right now, all of them,
I think pretty much have taken to the thought that
(15:35):
they will offer a buyout of the bet. So if
you have a bet that you know five legs hitting
would make you fifty five thousand dollars, but four legs
hitting makes you nothing, Well, you've hit the first four
legs and that fifth one maybe doesn't seem too far fetch.
That sports book might offer you twenty to thirty percent
(15:56):
of the original price of the original value of the bet,
So instead of fifty thousand, maybe you get offered ten
thousand to not risk that last leg. So that's always
the way that you'll find ways to benefit, even if
you don't ride a future's bet all the way to.
Speaker 4 (16:13):
The one thing.
Speaker 5 (16:14):
Just also to throw in there about buying out or
cashing out your bet through your sites like a DraftKings
for example. As like Jimmy said, you you can get
into a category where the bet they'll offer you the
cash out. There are two things to kind of watch for.
One is if your last leg or it looks like
(16:35):
it's about to go sour, your value on the cash
out will create it will automatically go, although it'll just
absolutely collapse. And then as you get into the later
stages of the bet, so the last minute of the game,
however it is, it looks like they'll suspend the cash
out to keep you from getting your money at a
(16:55):
height where we're about to lose it. So the thing
to watch if you're you have to really pay attention
if you're going to look at cashing out or doing
selling your slips or however, it is so that you
get your best value, and it requires a little bit
more research knowing how to do it either on your
parlay or in.
Speaker 4 (17:14):
Your future's bet too.
Speaker 5 (17:15):
If you're going to get offered your slip, it is
in your best interest to kind of find the best site.
And we don't obviously endorse one over another in this
whole conversation, but it's also like you said, there are
different communities, there are different different areas where they'll offer
you a name or a site and you really want
to do your homework before you do it so that
(17:37):
you don't you don't cash out and then be looking
at it going, man, I've cost myself on the back end.
Speaker 4 (17:44):
You don't want to do that.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
You want to you want to maximize your value as
best as you can.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
Okay, before we wrap up, we've got to get to
some pizza money category stuff. When pizza money when we
do regular games is one with really long odds. But
maybe is wor the throwing twenty bucks on to see
if maybe you make out on it. And we saw
that last week. We've seen it with Minnesota Duluth for example.
(18:10):
But let's take a look. What do you guys have
is some that you might consider.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
I'm going to the extreme side. I mentioned Union as
one already. They've had a good star five one and
one plus fifty thousand. Yeah, give me Union. I would
throw twenty bucks on that. I would also throw twenty
dollars on Miami Ohio at plus thirty thousand. I mean,
how do you not They just beat Arizona State last weekend.
(18:40):
They've been the hottest team right out of the gate.
They're scoring goals at clips that are ridiculous. So those
are the two I would actually go for if there
was one in the more modest range, and it's one
that you.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Know, Dan just kind of hit. Plus ten thousand on Northeastern.
Speaker 3 (18:57):
Is another one that I would think is really really
good value for a twenty dollars bet, that would be
worth it as well.
Speaker 5 (19:05):
I really like the Miami bet right now at plus
thirty thousand.
Speaker 4 (19:10):
Like you said, this is part of what.
Speaker 5 (19:11):
Miami's getting ding done and all of its odds is
how bad last year went. So they're playing really well
right now. I think that the numbers they need to
put up more towards the numbers in order to get
that number to drop. There's a glass ceiling that's there
because the algorithm still looks at last year and says
you might need to go thirteen or fourteen and two
(19:34):
for us to really consider dropping the number.
Speaker 4 (19:37):
So there's one.
Speaker 5 (19:39):
I think anytime you can look at an ECAC team
or even an Atlantic Hockey team, there is inherently more
risk involved in your pizza bet because in those leagues,
especially the last couple of years, if you don't win
the league, you're not getting in. So Atlantic Hockey was
like that last year. When you look at Sacred Heart
(19:59):
and Holy Across at plus twenty thousand, neither one of
them made the tournament last year, even though they were
first and second place in the tournament in the conference tournament,
because Bentley went out and won the League of the
League title. So I find that you get significantly less
value there. But I also think that there's a team
like a Harvard that could go out and win ECAC
(20:23):
at plus twenty thousand, that doesn't have.
Speaker 4 (20:26):
Any of its own because the IVY League.
Speaker 5 (20:28):
Start later, that they do not have the cachet so
far to jump even up in the polls. I talk
about this all year long, where the IVY League teams,
because their stats and everything, they don't have the win totals,
they have the less games, People detigrade them in polls,
detigrade them in some of the numbers. So you're going
to get some value on your best IVY League teams,
(20:50):
which we always think of as Cornell. But I really
like Harvard. I like what Ted Donado's been putting together there.
So that's more of a long shot with me. Other
than that, I already touched on Northeastern idea, how they're
plus two thousand. I'd be slamming that trying to get
value around Christmas if on a buyback or something. Heck,
I might even ride that northeast and could be hanging
a banner at the garden. With the way they're playing,
(21:11):
one thing they won't be doing hanging a banner at
Matthews Arena.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
It might pull the ceiling down.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
There's one thing I want to get to and what
you just said there, Dan, and the fact that the
ECAC maybe it feels okay, you've got to bet on
the league champion first because you've got to get into
the tournament.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
But ACAC is the outlier conference.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
How many championships does the ECAC have compared to the
Big ten in the last decade? At least I feel
like they're going to win a national championship. You know
you have a chance of a real life that you
have that Quinnipiac. If you'd bet Quinnipiac when Brad Schlossman
told you before they won their national championship, you would
have gotten unbelievable value on them.
Speaker 1 (21:56):
So it's one of those things.
Speaker 3 (21:58):
Is Union the next PIA You knew one a national
championship a decade ago.
Speaker 1 (22:03):
Could they do it again, it's not that far back.
Speaker 5 (22:06):
Cornell, when's the when's the conference championship last year? And
comes with it a goal of going to the Frozen Flour?
They are and they were? They were what sixth place
in the league last year? They were, they were one
of the last teams into the tournament. Let me ask
you one quick question to wrap this up. Uh, for
those of us involved in this broadcast, those of us
(22:28):
are our listeners, I guess is really where I'm pointing to.
Is this anything more than just fun for them?
Speaker 2 (22:34):
And the second part of that, are there people, maybe
not in college hockey, but in other sports who seriously
look to make some money out of futures like this?
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Yes, simply point Yes, I don't know in college hockey
as much, but in college football, in college basketball absolutely,
and in the pro sports do you have do you
have a lot more depth of types of wages you
can make? And I'm not for a proponent of increasing
(23:06):
the prop bets in college trust me, I think we
have too many as it is, so I don't think
that we need, you know, in this team make the
NCAA tournament type of bet that you would have in
other sports. But yes, there are tons of people out
their sharps that are that are basically making a career
out of trying to find some of the liability that
(23:28):
casinos have on some of these wages.
Speaker 5 (23:30):
And the one thing I will point there specifically at
the professional level is that there is a lot less
variability to some of the things at the pro level,
and namely, and I'll point towards the NBA, or I'll
point towards Major League Baseball before the NFL, you can
get prop bets on wins and you.
Speaker 4 (23:49):
Play a last play schedule.
Speaker 5 (23:50):
You you know you can get to seven eight wins
if you're over under six and a half to that's
that's a relatively easy prop bet to touchdown bets. Those
are relatively easy be because there's a lot less volume
to try and project based on who it is. But
the easy part of projecting the pros is that you
don't have the same types of cinderellas like Major League Baseball.
(24:12):
We could have predicted that the Los Angeles Dodgers were
probably going to win get into the World Series when
they were even not playing well in the middle of
the summer, or that the Toronto Blue Jays were going
to win the.
Speaker 4 (24:24):
Division or have a shot at the division.
Speaker 5 (24:26):
I think in the NBA it's even more pronounced, where
your best teams are your best teams and your worst
teams are your worst teams.
Speaker 4 (24:32):
College hockey in terms of futures, has a lot.
Speaker 5 (24:34):
More volatility because one, there's not as much public data
around the locker rooms what makes these teams good, what
makes them better.
Speaker 4 (24:45):
And that's great.
Speaker 5 (24:46):
We love that, like we love the fact that it's
not quite that it's still kind of our thing, right
but and that the Sharks haven't maybe latched onto it.
But the one thing that makes it harder to exploit
is that there's a lot of time teams that are
very good teams that you just don't know where they
are right now. So that's where the futures bet for
college hockey and the prop bets for college hockey are
(25:08):
a lot harder to project. I mean, you go back
over the last few years, how many teams win a
national title or get to a Frozen four.
Speaker 4 (25:14):
That you didn't see coming.
Speaker 5 (25:16):
And that does not happen as much in terms of
maybe the NBA, the NHL, the Major League Baseball, the NFL,
even college basketball and college football. You do know that
there are certain teams that are probably going to be
there by the end.
Speaker 4 (25:32):
Well, with that, we'll wrap it up.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
This episode has been sponsored by the NCAA Men's Frozen
four April ninth and eleventh in Las Vegas. Visit NCAA
dot com slash M Frozen four to get your tickets now.
This podcast is also available now on video at YouTube
dot com slash usccho Go there to like and subscribe
(25:58):
for Jim Connelly, for Damn Rubin, I'm ed Trefsker and
this has been us C h O edge
Uscho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to us Cho Edge for Friday, November seventh, twenty
twenty five. I'm ed Trevskier alongside Jim Connelly and Dan Rubin.
Our podcast is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Frozen four
April ninth and eleventh in Las Vegas. Get your tickets
now att NCAA dot com slash m Frozen four. Well, guys,
(00:36):
we started the season by looking at team futures. That
is what the oddsmakers think is the chance of a
team making it to and winning the championship game. There's
been some movement there, and strangely enough, we also don't
have any individual game odds available to us as we
record this on Thursday, So we're going to see where
(01:00):
things have moved over the last month. Then the top
four stay the same, but a little bit of movement there.
Penn State and Michigan State were plus five hundred to
start the season. They're plus five point fifty right now,
and Michigan and Boston University. Michigan has moved up a
bit from plus one thousand to plus seven hundred and
(01:21):
BU from plus eight hundred to plus seven hundred. So
why don't we start with those top four teams, and
you know that would be a pretty good, pretty good
frozen four, although our friends in the NCCHC might not agree.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
I look at some of.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
These numbers in kind of shake my head at some.
I mean, listen, the ones you mentioned Penn State in
Michigan State both being plus five point fifty.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
That makes sense. But BU has not had a strong start.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
And they've gone from plus eight hundred to plus seven hundred,
so their odds are actually getting better to win the
national championship, and they just gave up thirteen goals last weekend.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
To me and I that one makes me shake my head.
Speaker 4 (02:02):
But as you look.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
At that top four, it's the same top four that
we had back when this season started. The numbers have
changed a little bit. The Michigan number is probably the
one that has changed the most, you know, going from
eleven hundred to seven hundred. So the odds on Michigan
no surprise when you're nine to one out of the gate.
(02:25):
They've gone in a direction that probably makes the value
disappear even more so. I think it's interesting. I think
the BU number really confuses me. But everything else that
you just mentioned is spot on.
Speaker 5 (02:39):
Yeah, I think when I look at the numbers, I
kind of feel the same way.
Speaker 4 (02:43):
I know.
Speaker 5 (02:44):
I wasn't on that first week, that first episode and
when you guys discussed the original futures. So this is
kind of my first foray into what I'm seeing out
of the numbers. And while the shifting hasn't necessarily been
there for me, what I will say is some of
the numbers for me just don't align. And maybe that's
because we're in November, and maybe that's because people are
(03:06):
still betting, people are still throwing money down on their
future with their proverbial pizza money. It just doesn't align
a bit right now, which is where I think you
might be able to actually get some good value in
some of these teams based on where they are if
they are not your favorites. Like you said, Boston University
of plus seven.
Speaker 4 (03:26):
Hundred did not make a whole lot of sense.
Speaker 5 (03:27):
But further down there, it means there are going to
be teams that are playing way better for the number
that is associated with them. But unfortunately that's more current state,
right Like this is all current state that we're saying this.
Speaker 4 (03:41):
We're trying to project into the future and see things
that I don't know.
Speaker 5 (03:45):
Maybe Western Michigan isn't as good of a bet right now.
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Later isn't a bet later that they might be right now.
We just don't know.
Speaker 5 (03:52):
But that's part of the fun of, you know, looking
at the futures and seeing where they're moving.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
Well, let's take a look at the teams following them
and how that's moved around. Back on October tewod Minnesota
was fifth at plus thirteen hundred. They've dropped, but only
to plus eighteen hundred right now. Denver, North Dakota, BC,
Western Michigan, Minnesota and Maine follow Denver plus thirteen hundred
(04:19):
and Maine at plus two thousand. It has been just
sort of some slight movement there. Maine was plus two
thousand to start out with. It seems to me, though, Jim,
that maybe these numbers are not reflecting some of the
early season difficulties some of these teams have had. You
mentioned BU it's been rough out of the gate for
(04:40):
both BC and Minnesota, and.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
I actually thought that the Minnesota number would have moved
more significantly plus thirteen hundred to start the season. Plus
eighteen hundred now not a ton of increased value. Boston
College plus thirteen hundred to start plus fifteen hundred. Now,
I just don't see a ton of movement, and that.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
You know, I I to find the teams that have
added a lot of value.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
This top of the list as I look at it
just doesn't have a ton you know. Do I think
that you know, Minnesota Duluth which opened at five thousand,
there's still a thirty five hundred. I think that's really good.
That's a great value play right there. If you can
put one hundred dollars down now to potentially win thirty
(05:28):
six hundred come April, that's not bad.
Speaker 4 (05:32):
You know.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
As we get into some of the real, real long shots,
the pizza money bets of this, I think that we
see some better value, some really good value. But it's
it's at this point to tie your money up for
a long time.
Speaker 4 (05:45):
A lot of these numbers don't work out yet.
Speaker 5 (05:48):
No, and and and that's and that's why we more
look at the futures bet and say that there's a
sweet spot it during the season in which you you
really want to place the bet down, or at least
that's what I say.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
I don't want to.
Speaker 5 (05:59):
I don't want to class by that for anyone else
on this podcast. But that's the way that I know
I talk about it. You don't want to be betting
your futures this early in a season, at least I
don't think you do.
Speaker 4 (06:10):
I think it's fun.
Speaker 5 (06:11):
I think there's a part of it where you know, hey,
we'll bet the New England Patriots over their win total
back during the preseason, and it gives you something to
watch during the whole season.
Speaker 4 (06:22):
That's one thing.
Speaker 5 (06:23):
But nothing that happens right now will impact how.
Speaker 4 (06:28):
The team is playing at the end of the season.
Speaker 5 (06:31):
Sands maybe who might be and to that, who might
be going into the tournament on a role, who might
be winning the national tournament.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
I look at Western Michigan last year.
Speaker 5 (06:40):
I don't think they were on my map at all
when we discussed futures, and they go out and win
the national championships. So to me, this is more just
trying to figure out the perception of where your team
is at and then trying to strike a little bit
maybe when the Irons hot. Like I do look at
Boston College and Minnesota and say those are two teams
that are likely to turn it around just based on
(07:01):
talent as they gel over the course of the year.
I've said that about Boston College a lot this year,
where I've said that BC was a team that I
expected to have its lumps at the beginning of the
season as it was starting to gel as the roster
was filling into its new roles.
Speaker 4 (07:16):
Same with Minnesota, new players, new roles.
Speaker 5 (07:18):
Those guys need to figure out how to play together
as a team. By the same token, I think they're
gonna figure it out. I think by the end of
the season they're gonna look very different, provided they haven't
lost enough space. You look at some of those numbers,
and I think that's where the numbers may not be
done cratering. By the same token, come the end of
the year, they might actually be favorites. So if you
(07:40):
really think that a Minnesota is the favorite to win
the national championship, plus eighteen hundred.
Speaker 4 (07:45):
Might not be the worst look because they might.
Speaker 5 (07:49):
Be at at their.
Speaker 4 (07:51):
Lowest low right now.
Speaker 5 (07:52):
So that's kind of what you're also trying to determine
along the way. Personally speaking, I think Minnesota should be
significantly higher. I shocked they were still in the Paul
two weeks ago, but they're out now.
Speaker 4 (08:03):
But that's beside the point. So that's just kind of,
you know, separate interpretation on it.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
We've got more to discuss, but I want to get
our break in right now, and then I've got a
question I'm going to throw at you guys. This podcast
episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Frozen four, April
ninth and eleventh in Las Vegas.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
Glack.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Today we're fucking men's ice hockey.
Speaker 4 (08:29):
Open your textbooks, join.
Speaker 6 (08:31):
Thousands of other screaming fans for an in person experience.
You have to say to believe it's the NCAAA Men's
Frozen four, April ninth and eleventh in Las Vegas.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
Attendance is encouraged. Passion is mandatory.
Speaker 6 (08:44):
By your seat today at NCAA dot com slash m
frozen foour how many teams are in the Men's Frozen four?
Speaker 4 (08:52):
Please leave me? We're back with us. C cho Ed Joe.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
I wanted to ask you about trying to guess some
teams that might work their way up, and I'll use
the example of Penn State. Nobody had them, I don't
think on the map for the Frozen four last year
back in January, and they just went on a tier
and got there and of course that's reflected throwing Gavin
(09:20):
McKenna and some other key players on that team, and
they're where they are now. But what about a team
that has started out well and maybe turn the corner.
We'll see when they get into Big ten play. But
I'm talking about Wisconsin. They started out plus five thousand.
There's still plus five thousand. Is that a team to
look for, maybe even the best value of anybody out
(09:42):
there right now?
Speaker 3 (09:43):
I was actually pointing to that when I was looking
at these numbers as one of the better values, you know,
because when you're plus five thousand, there's still a pretty
legitimate chance that you could win. Here's the whole thing
when you're going for some of the stretch bets plus
five thousand. There another one I'll throw out, and maybe
(10:04):
I'm jumping the gun in a little here on pizza.
But Union started at plus twenty thousand. They've started the
season five to one and one and another plus fifty thousand.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
That makes no sense to me.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
But can I put one hundred dollars on them? Now?
Watch Union have a good start, maybe even get out
through Christmas where they're you know, eight nine, ten games
above five hundred, they're you know, in the top of
the ECAC it's thought of the fact that they'll probably
make the NCAA tournament, And can I sell that bet?
Speaker 1 (10:39):
You know, can I find a way.
Speaker 3 (10:40):
To either get the sports book that I bet through
to make an offer to buy me out, or can
I sell it to one of those third party companies
that sells wagers. That's when you're when you're taking fifty thousand,
you know, or odds even any odds that are probably
plus twenty thousand and fifteen twenty thousand. That's really what
(11:03):
you're hoping for, is that somehow your bet gets bought
out because you're not really But like, I think that
the price on Union right now at plus fifty thousand
is unbelievable value.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
Do I think Union can win the National Championship? Absolutely not.
So technically I think I'm probably away the money.
Speaker 7 (11:23):
But if you can get in so that someone will
offer you eight hundred dollars for that ticket, you know,
in February eight to one, on the fact that Union
could have a decent season, I don't think that that's.
Speaker 4 (11:35):
Crazy, you know, it's fine.
Speaker 5 (11:37):
I don't think we've ever actually mentioned selling your bet
in the years that we've done this podcast and specifically
with the futures, and that is a I didn't even
think of it, but that is a that is.
Speaker 4 (11:49):
A great point.
Speaker 5 (11:50):
And to me, there are plenty of teams in the
long shot category that maybe fit the bill of teams
that you can ride until you think you can sell
the stock at a high point, just like you would
in the stock market, just like you're looking at a
team and saying, hey, why don't we buy the stock
as low as possible, buy the dip, and then sell
(12:13):
it as high as possible. And for me, that team
right now is Northeastern. Northeastern. Maybe I'm jumping the gun
as well in terms of a pizza money bed at
plus ten thousand has wins over Denver and Boston College,
which I.
Speaker 4 (12:26):
Know maybe is not the type of.
Speaker 5 (12:31):
Quality win that we maybe would have expected it to
be at the beginning of the season, but they still
have them in Northeastern still has some pretty long odds.
And when you look at the way Northeastern, in popular opinion,
at least in college hockey, has jumped into the pole,
jumped up the pole, similar to way Minnesota du Luth has,
the number hasn't quite adjusted for Northeastern the way that
(12:55):
Minnesota Duluth went to plus thirty five hundred. So I'm
not sure that Northeastern is going to win an national championship.
But it's the same idea where you have this team
that is currently riding it's high at the top of
Hockey East, which is the best conference in the East.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
No ifsands or butts about it.
Speaker 5 (13:12):
You know that the team that's going to be in
the top two or three in Hockey East is going
to get into the tournament.
Speaker 4 (13:17):
You know that they're going to have a shot at
the garden. So to me, that.
Speaker 5 (13:21):
Is maybe looking to sell that bet if Northeast. If
you're buying and saying, let's ride this on Northeastern as
much as possible.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
Explain to us the mechanism of selling that bet. Say
you're doing this through a place like DraftKings, which provides
the odds for us from their website. How does that work?
Speaker 3 (13:40):
So the concept is probably simpler than we even realize.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
There are third party sites out there.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
I'm not going to try to steer anybody in one
direction over now, so I'm not going to throw any
names out, but there are companies out there that they
allow betters to Basically, they former can unity for betters
to talk amongst themselves and offer the sale of bets.
So if you know, let's say I bet Union for
(14:09):
plus fifty thousand, and Union gets to the Christmas break
and they are thirteen and five and one, let's say,
and you're saying, oh wow, Union, They're in the top
fifteen of the poll.
Speaker 4 (14:24):
Right now.
Speaker 3 (14:24):
I bet they're going to make the NCAA tournament. I
would love to make that bet now, But in February
suddenly their odds are now down to you know, plus
two thousand, not as good as plus fifty thousand. So
that means if I bet one hundred on it, I
would only make you know, twenty times the amount, whereas
(14:45):
if I bet one hundred way back now it's fifty
fifty times, about hundred times.
Speaker 4 (14:50):
I should say.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
So I look at those numbers, and I'm saying, if
I'm out there, how can I find a better price?
These third party sites, these these betters can t amongst themselves.
I have a ticket that I paid one hundred dollars for.
It's worth fifty one thousand if it hits. Does anybody
want to buy it for one thousand? Dollars and then
you get the so you're basically getting some value out
(15:14):
of it. So it's usually a third party site that
can take it. Now there are in the parlay market
when you have a multi leg parlay, say four to
five legs, and say you've got four of them that hit.
Some of these sports books right now, all of them,
I think pretty much have taken to the thought that
(15:35):
they will offer a buyout of the bet. So if
you have a bet that you know five legs hitting
would make you fifty five thousand dollars, but four legs
hitting makes you nothing, Well, you've hit the first four
legs and that fifth one maybe doesn't seem too far fetch.
That sports book might offer you twenty to thirty percent
(15:56):
of the original price of the original value of the bet,
So instead of fifty thousand, maybe you get offered ten
thousand to not risk that last leg. So that's always
the way that you'll find ways to benefit, even if
you don't ride a future's bet all the way to.
Speaker 4 (16:13):
The one thing.
Speaker 5 (16:14):
Just also to throw in there about buying out or
cashing out your bet through your sites like a DraftKings
for example. As like Jimmy said, you you can get
into a category where the bet they'll offer you the
cash out. There are two things to kind of watch for.
One is if your last leg or it looks like
(16:35):
it's about to go sour, your value on the cash
out will create it will automatically go, although it'll just
absolutely collapse. And then as you get into the later
stages of the bet, so the last minute of the game,
however it is, it looks like they'll suspend the cash
out to keep you from getting your money at a
(16:55):
height where we're about to lose it. So the thing
to watch if you're you have to really pay attention
if you're going to look at cashing out or doing
selling your slips or however, it is so that you
get your best value, and it requires a little bit
more research knowing how to do it either on your
parlay or in.
Speaker 4 (17:14):
Your future's bet too.
Speaker 5 (17:15):
If you're going to get offered your slip, it is
in your best interest to kind of find the best site.
And we don't obviously endorse one over another in this
whole conversation, but it's also like you said, there are
different communities, there are different different areas where they'll offer
you a name or a site and you really want
to do your homework before you do it so that
(17:37):
you don't you don't cash out and then be looking
at it going, man, I've cost myself on the back end.
Speaker 4 (17:44):
You don't want to do that.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
You want to you want to maximize your value as
best as you can.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
Okay, before we wrap up, we've got to get to
some pizza money category stuff. When pizza money when we
do regular games is one with really long odds. But
maybe is wor the throwing twenty bucks on to see
if maybe you make out on it. And we saw
that last week. We've seen it with Minnesota Duluth for example.
(18:10):
But let's take a look. What do you guys have
is some that you might consider.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
I'm going to the extreme side. I mentioned Union as
one already. They've had a good star five one and
one plus fifty thousand. Yeah, give me Union. I would
throw twenty bucks on that. I would also throw twenty
dollars on Miami Ohio at plus thirty thousand. I mean,
how do you not They just beat Arizona State last weekend.
(18:40):
They've been the hottest team right out of the gate.
They're scoring goals at clips that are ridiculous. So those
are the two I would actually go for if there
was one in the more modest range, and it's one
that you.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Know, Dan just kind of hit. Plus ten thousand on Northeastern.
Speaker 3 (18:57):
Is another one that I would think is really really
good value for a twenty dollars bet, that would be
worth it as well.
Speaker 5 (19:05):
I really like the Miami bet right now at plus
thirty thousand.
Speaker 4 (19:10):
Like you said, this is part of what.
Speaker 5 (19:11):
Miami's getting ding done and all of its odds is
how bad last year went. So they're playing really well
right now. I think that the numbers they need to
put up more towards the numbers in order to get
that number to drop. There's a glass ceiling that's there
because the algorithm still looks at last year and says
you might need to go thirteen or fourteen and two
(19:34):
for us to really consider dropping the number.
Speaker 4 (19:37):
So there's one.
Speaker 5 (19:39):
I think anytime you can look at an ECAC team
or even an Atlantic Hockey team, there is inherently more
risk involved in your pizza bet because in those leagues,
especially the last couple of years, if you don't win
the league, you're not getting in. So Atlantic Hockey was
like that last year. When you look at Sacred Heart
(19:59):
and Holy Across at plus twenty thousand, neither one of
them made the tournament last year, even though they were
first and second place in the tournament in the conference tournament,
because Bentley went out and won the League of the
League title. So I find that you get significantly less
value there. But I also think that there's a team
like a Harvard that could go out and win ECAC
(20:23):
at plus twenty thousand, that doesn't have.
Speaker 4 (20:26):
Any of its own because the IVY League.
Speaker 5 (20:28):
Start later, that they do not have the cachet so
far to jump even up in the polls. I talk
about this all year long, where the IVY League teams,
because their stats and everything, they don't have the win totals,
they have the less games, People detigrade them in polls,
detigrade them in some of the numbers. So you're going
to get some value on your best IVY League teams,
(20:50):
which we always think of as Cornell. But I really
like Harvard. I like what Ted Donado's been putting together there.
So that's more of a long shot with me. Other
than that, I already touched on Northeastern idea, how they're
plus two thousand. I'd be slamming that trying to get
value around Christmas if on a buyback or something. Heck,
I might even ride that northeast and could be hanging
a banner at the garden. With the way they're playing,
(21:11):
one thing they won't be doing hanging a banner at
Matthews Arena.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
It might pull the ceiling down.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
There's one thing I want to get to and what
you just said there, Dan, and the fact that the
ECAC maybe it feels okay, you've got to bet on
the league champion first because you've got to get into
the tournament.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
But ACAC is the outlier conference.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
How many championships does the ECAC have compared to the
Big ten in the last decade? At least I feel
like they're going to win a national championship. You know
you have a chance of a real life that you
have that Quinnipiac. If you'd bet Quinnipiac when Brad Schlossman
told you before they won their national championship, you would
have gotten unbelievable value on them.
Speaker 1 (21:56):
So it's one of those things.
Speaker 3 (21:58):
Is Union the next PIA You knew one a national
championship a decade ago.
Speaker 1 (22:03):
Could they do it again, it's not that far back.
Speaker 5 (22:06):
Cornell, when's the when's the conference championship last year? And
comes with it a goal of going to the Frozen Flour?
They are and they were? They were what sixth place
in the league last year? They were, they were one
of the last teams into the tournament. Let me ask
you one quick question to wrap this up. Uh, for
those of us involved in this broadcast, those of us
(22:28):
are our listeners, I guess is really where I'm pointing to.
Is this anything more than just fun for them?
Speaker 2 (22:34):
And the second part of that, are there people, maybe
not in college hockey, but in other sports who seriously
look to make some money out of futures like this?
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Yes, simply point Yes, I don't know in college hockey
as much, but in college football, in college basketball absolutely,
and in the pro sports do you have do you
have a lot more depth of types of wages you
can make? And I'm not for a proponent of increasing
(23:06):
the prop bets in college trust me, I think we
have too many as it is, so I don't think
that we need, you know, in this team make the
NCAA tournament type of bet that you would have in
other sports. But yes, there are tons of people out
their sharps that are that are basically making a career
out of trying to find some of the liability that
(23:28):
casinos have on some of these wages.
Speaker 5 (23:30):
And the one thing I will point there specifically at
the professional level is that there is a lot less
variability to some of the things at the pro level,
and namely, and I'll point towards the NBA, or I'll
point towards Major League Baseball before the NFL, you can
get prop bets on wins and you.
Speaker 4 (23:49):
Play a last play schedule.
Speaker 5 (23:50):
You you know you can get to seven eight wins
if you're over under six and a half to that's
that's a relatively easy prop bet to touchdown bets. Those
are relatively easy be because there's a lot less volume
to try and project based on who it is. But
the easy part of projecting the pros is that you
don't have the same types of cinderellas like Major League Baseball.
(24:12):
We could have predicted that the Los Angeles Dodgers were
probably going to win get into the World Series when
they were even not playing well in the middle of
the summer, or that the Toronto Blue Jays were going
to win the.
Speaker 4 (24:24):
Division or have a shot at the division.
Speaker 5 (24:26):
I think in the NBA it's even more pronounced, where
your best teams are your best teams and your worst
teams are your worst teams.
Speaker 4 (24:32):
College hockey in terms of futures, has a lot.
Speaker 5 (24:34):
More volatility because one, there's not as much public data
around the locker rooms what makes these teams good, what
makes them better.
Speaker 4 (24:45):
And that's great.
Speaker 5 (24:46):
We love that, like we love the fact that it's
not quite that it's still kind of our thing, right
but and that the Sharks haven't maybe latched onto it.
But the one thing that makes it harder to exploit
is that there's a lot of time teams that are
very good teams that you just don't know where they
are right now. So that's where the futures bet for
college hockey and the prop bets for college hockey are
(25:08):
a lot harder to project. I mean, you go back
over the last few years, how many teams win a
national title or get to a Frozen four.
Speaker 4 (25:14):
That you didn't see coming.
Speaker 5 (25:16):
And that does not happen as much in terms of
maybe the NBA, the NHL, the Major League Baseball, the NFL,
even college basketball and college football. You do know that
there are certain teams that are probably going to be
there by the end.
Speaker 4 (25:32):
Well, with that, we'll wrap it up.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
This episode has been sponsored by the NCAA Men's Frozen
four April ninth and eleventh in Las Vegas. Visit NCAA
dot com slash M Frozen four to get your tickets now.
This podcast is also available now on video at YouTube
dot com slash usccho Go there to like and subscribe
(25:58):
for Jim Connelly, for Damn Rubin, I'm ed Trefsker and
this has been us C h O edge
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Burden
The Burden is a documentary series that takes listeners into the hidden places where justice is done (and undone). It dives deep into the lives of heroes and villains. And it focuses a spotlight on those who triumph even when the odds are against them. Season 5 - The Burden: Death & Deceit in Alliance On April Fools Day 1999, 26-year-old Yvonne Layne was found murdered in her Alliance, Ohio home. David Thorne, her ex-boyfriend and father of one of her children, was instantly a suspect. Another young man admitted to the murder, and David breathed a sigh of relief, until the confessed murderer fingered David; “He paid me to do it.” David was sentenced to life without parole. Two decades later, Pulitzer winner and podcast host, Maggie Freleng (Bone Valley Season 3: Graves County, Wrongful Conviction, Suave) launched a “live” investigation into David's conviction alongside Jason Baldwin (himself wrongfully convicted as a member of the West Memphis Three). Maggie had come to believe that the entire investigation of David was botched by the tiny local police department, or worse, covered up the real killer. Was Maggie correct? Was David’s claim of innocence credible? In Death and Deceit in Alliance, Maggie recounts the case that launched her career, and ultimately, “broke” her.” The results will shock the listener and reduce Maggie to tears and self-doubt. This is not your typical wrongful conviction story. In fact, it turns the genre on its head. It asks the question: What if our champions are foolish? Season 4 - The Burden: Get the Money and Run “Trying to murder my father, this was the thing that put me on the path.” That’s Joe Loya and that path was bank robbery. Bank, bank, bank, bank, bank. In season 4 of The Burden: Get the Money and Run, we hear from Joe who was once the most prolific bank robber in Southern California, and beyond. He used disguises, body doubles, proxies. He leaped over counters, grabbed the money and ran. Even as the FBI was closing in. It was a showdown between a daring bank robber, and a patient FBI agent. Joe was no ordinary bank robber. He was bright, articulate, charismatic, and driven by a dark rage that he summoned up at will. In seven episodes, Joe tells all: the what, the how… and the why. Including why he tried to murder his father. Season 3 - The Burden: Avenger Miriam Lewin is one of Argentina’s leading journalists today. At 19 years old, she was kidnapped off the streets of Buenos Aires for her political activism and thrown into a concentration camp. Thousands of her fellow inmates were executed, tossed alive from a cargo plane into the ocean. Miriam, along with a handful of others, will survive the camp. Then as a journalist, she will wage a decades long campaign to bring her tormentors to justice. Avenger is about one woman’s triumphant battle against unbelievable odds to survive torture, claim justice for the crimes done against her and others like her, and change the future of her country. Season 2 - The Burden: Empire on Blood Empire on Blood is set in the Bronx, NY, in the early 90s, when two young drug dealers ruled an intersection known as “The Corner on Blood.” The boss, Calvin Buari, lived large. He and a protege swore they would build an empire on blood. Then the relationship frayed and the protege accused Calvin of a double homicide which he claimed he didn’t do. But did he? Award-winning journalist Steve Fishman spent seven years to answer that question. This is the story of one man’s last chance to overturn his life sentence. He may prevail, but someone’s gotta pay. The Burden: Empire on Blood is the director’s cut of the true crime classic which reached #1 on the charts when it was first released half a dozen years ago. Season 1 - The Burden In the 1990s, Detective Louis N. Scarcella was legendary. In a city overrun by violent crime, he cracked the toughest cases and put away the worst criminals. “The Hulk” was his nickname. Then the story changed. Scarcella ran into a group of convicted murderers who all say they are innocent. They turned themselves into jailhouse-lawyers and in prison founded a lway firm. When they realized Scarcella helped put many of them away, they set their sights on taking him down. And with the help of a NY Times reporter they have a chance. For years, Scarcella insisted he did nothing wrong. But that’s all he’d say. Until we tracked Scarcella to a sauna in a Russian bathhouse, where he started to talk..and talk and talk. “The guilty have gone free,” he whispered. And then agreed to take us into the belly of the beast. Welcome to The Burden.