Huge tilts in Big Ten, NCHC top our slate for money lines, analysis for Feb. 28: Season 3 Episode 17
February 28, 2025 • 34 mins
USCHO Edge hosts Jim Connelly (@jimmyconnelly), Dan Rubin (@DanRubin12) and Ed Trefzger (@EdTrefzger) look at money lines and over/under for six college games on February 28, 2025.
This episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division I Frozen Four, April 10 and 12 in St. Louis. Get your tickets now at ncaa.com/frozenfour
- Minnesota -220 @ Penn State +170; over/under 6.5
- Michigan State -250 @ Notre Dame +190; o/u 5.5
- Northeastern +175 @ UConn -230; o/u 5.5
- Arizona State -125 @ Omaha -105; o/u 6.5
- North Dakota +190 @ Western Michigan -250; o/u 5.5
- New Hampshire +380 @ Boston College -580; o/u 6.5 (our "pizza money" game)
This episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division I Frozen Four, April 10 and 12 in St. Louis. Get your tickets now at ncaa.com/frozenfour
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to US Echo Edge for Friday, February twenty eight,
twenty twenty five. This episode is sponsored by the NCAA
Men's Division one Frozen four April tenth and twelfth in
Saint Louis. Get your tickets now at NCAA dot com
slash Frozen four. I'm Ed Trevsker alongside Jim Connolly and
Dan Rubin. We're looking at a lot of games that
(00:34):
have playoff and postseason implications, and we're going to start
out with what may be the biggest one this weekend,
and that is Minnesota at Penn State. The Friday game
has an over under of six and a half. Minnesota
is the road favorite at minus two twenty Penn State
at home is plus one seventy.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
And this is just a great story for the Golphers
to be in this position here here they are potentially
to win a league championship, despite the fact that they
haven't been talked about a lot this year. And I
don't say that as a ball to anybody. I just
think that this has been a great year to talk
about Michigan State. But when all the chips are on
the are down last weekend, the big weekend came from
(01:20):
Minnesota and not Penn State, and I think that that's
what makes this such an interesting weekend. Don't forget the
team that laid some damage down last week against Michigan
State was Penn State. Nothing says that this is an
easy weekend for Minnesota going on the road, but I do.
(01:41):
I still like the golfers they've played. They've really played
well down the stretch. At minus two twenty, they're not
somebody I would bet. But I would also not bet
Penn State at all, even at plus one seventy good value,
and this team knows what they're doing right now. If
they win these games weekend, they probably play themselves into
(02:02):
the NCAA tournament. So there's a lot on the line
for Penn State.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
But I still like Minnesota seeway Penn State here and
the reason Ford is riding the hot hand. Penn State
has only lost one game in regulation since I think
the second half of the season, and that was one
of the Michigan games when they got blown out in
Ann Arbor playing at home. They have not lost a
(02:28):
regulation game since essentially the first of the year, when
they lost to Michigan State at home, and they were
a very different team. I feel then, not necessarily thinking
that Penn State is gonna win, but looking at the
value for me is there just based on where the
number lies, they do have a fifty to fifty shot
(02:49):
right now Penn State of getting into the tournament. I
think that increases dramatically with a win this weekend. If
they sweep, then they're on the right side of the
cut line. And given that you may plays UMass loll,
there's gonna be some cannibalization there. Plus whatever happens with
Quinnepiak or whatever happens with Michigan, it's going to allow
them to work their way in. I think there's enough
(03:12):
at stake for Penn State to make that run. I
do think that the regular season championship for Minnesota in
the Big Ten matters. I think it's it matters significantly,
especially the difference between being the two to three and
the three seed and potentially having to where you're gonna
wind up based on if and when Penn State potentially
(03:34):
gets into the tournament. So where that all might shake
down for texts Minnesota if they can somehow jump over
Michigan State in the Pairwise, I just like Penn State.
Speaker 4 (03:45):
With the value right now. I think that's a well
placed nine.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
I think the line in the money line shows exactly
what we would expect from these teams, being a twenty
three win Minnesota team and a Penn State team that
had its struggles earlier in the years. I really like
where the numb shook down, but in a betting standpoint,
it trends towards Penn State. I wouldn't touch Minnesota though
on the money online. That's just there's no value there.
(04:09):
I get the hot team on the road, there's no value.
Here's one that's interesting is that they have the over
under set at six and a half. It's actually shaded
minus one twenty to the over. But when these two
teams played earlier this year, and it was earlier, it
was way back November first and second. But the final
(04:29):
scores these games in Minnesota three to one, one nothing.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Both results for Minnesota not even close to seven. So
I know that these teams are playing different hockey. And
I look at Minnesota and they put up ten goals
last weekend. They're scoring in bunches at times. Wisconsin they
had nine and that weekend, and Penn State's coming off,
they're finally seeing some offense from their team. But I
(04:56):
still don't know that this game gets to seven. So
if I saw one thing to bet on here that
I liked, I think I would take the under for
these two teams.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
I agree, I don't think that the over under is
conducive right now. They both there's about a half goal
difference between the team statistically this year, where Penn State
is about a half goal worse defensively than Men's than
the Minnesota and men State.
Speaker 4 (05:21):
Let's just merged the two teams and see what happens.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
Apparently, but Minnesota, I like the number being shaded a
bit towards the under because I think this is going
to stay under, just on the fact that while there's
a half goal difference, it's not enough for me to
make up to that six and a half.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
So Penn State last weekend at mon Arena held Michigan
State to two goals in each game, beat what was
then the number one team in the country. Is Minnesota
a lot better than Michigan State? Or is Minnesota going
to be about the same level of foe And now
Penn State is to take them on at Pegula Ice Arena.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
Think that they're about the same in terms of teams.
I don't think that Minnesota or Michigan State is hands
heading told us above each other. I guess the question
you're asking you is, should this be favored the same
line it was against Michigan State. It probably should. I
think Michigan State was slightly bigger favorite last week. I
(06:25):
think the fact that you're playing this Apagoula probably does
a lot to sway this line toward Penn State a
little plus their results from last weekend. But yeah, I
don't see a lot of separation from really either of
those two teams, Michigan State or Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
I guess I'm tipping my hand on this one if
I were putting a comment in, and I guess I
am right now, I'm taking Penn State and I'm taken
under gaven how they've been playing.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
I don't mind that bad.
Speaker 1 (06:52):
I just I still think that Minnesota is playing really
right now, and I think that's probably going to show
up or the fact they really manhandled a really good
Ohio State team last weekend and is as much as
I think it opened our eyes to see Penn State
take five out of six from Michigan State, I think
(07:13):
my eyes were just as open, maybe even more so
opened by what Ohio Minnesota didekinst Ohio State.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
The other key matchup we're looking at in the Big
Ten has Michigan State at Notre Dame over under on
this one's five and a half, Michigan State is a
minus two fifty and Notre Dame is a plus one ninety.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Yeah, this is a tougher game for me, just coming
off of the last week's weekend for Penn State. I
don't love that they have to go on the road
with this one. That said, I just don't see another
bad weekend for Michigan State here I see them. This
is a team that has not swept a weekend. The
(07:56):
last time they swept a weekend was with January second
and fourth. They had a win to tie with a
shootout loss. They had a win in a tie where
they shootout win, but they have not actually taken all
six and actually going back to the weekend that they swept,
(08:17):
they did not even take all six points out of that.
So the last time they took all six points out
of a Big Ten weekend Notre Dame. Now that was
at all three of the decisions there, but because of
that and because of the fact I just don't see
Minnesota State putting up another bad weekend.
Speaker 4 (08:37):
I like Sparti here.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
Excluding the trip to Belfast, the last time Notre Dame
won the first game of a two game weekend was
November one against Wisconsin, and they have since. I think
there were a couple ties in there where they went
maybe went to a shootout, or I might be missing
a game in there specifically, but I couldn't find a
(09:02):
game in their schedule where they won on Friday, and
in fact, the win over Wisconsin on Saturday last week
the last time that they actually outright beat a team
in the Big Ten, and I think was Wisconsin, So
they have not won a lot of games.
Speaker 4 (09:23):
They beat Michigan.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
They beat Michigan in middle of January, so it has
not been a good ride for Notre Dame this year,
which is why even at plus one ninety, I don't
actually think there's enough value to take them against Michigan State,
knowing that Michigan State still has a chance to win
the Big Ten if Penn State is able to hold
up its end of the bargain against Minnesota. So for me,
(09:44):
the fact that there's only that two point differential, that
Michigan State is playing its way into the number two
seed in the national tournament, that there's the Big Ten
championship potentially at stake. Facing Notre Dame to me is
not If this thus were maybe a plus two to
fifty or even a plus two to seventy five, I
might consider Notre Dame just on value, but I don't
(10:06):
even see the value on plus one ninety.
Speaker 4 (10:09):
It shades to the.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
Under as an underdog for But even then, I don't particket.
When Notre Dame hasn't been it has been able to score,
they've hit the over, and when Notre Dame can't score,
it hits the over. So it's a tough draw for
me to hit under on five and a half on this.
But I don't like any game going over in the
(10:32):
last weekend of the season. But that said, I don't
like taking Notre Dame in this, and I'm not sure
that there's any value on Michigan State at minus two
to fifty to win to win a bet, so I
maybe even stay away from this one unless you're throwing
a Hail Mary on Notre Dame no pun intended.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
I guess the over under is the only other place
to go here, and I really like the over here.
I know it's shades to minus one thirty. That might
be the highest we've seen this year, minus one third
an over five and a half goals. But the last
time these two teams played together, they were in the
eight to ten per range. I see that again. I
(11:10):
definitely don't see it stay under five or under these
two teams. Like you said, Dan, even when Notre Dame's
not playing well, they're giving up enough goals to hit
the over. I see this game, really, this whole series.
I see there's both games in this one reaching the
over if it stays at five and a half very quickly.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Was last weekend a wake up call at the right
time for Michigan State?
Speaker 1 (11:35):
I hope so. I'm not sure, but well, I guess
we'll see this weekend, but you certainly hope so. They've
needed it. And listen, they had a tough second half schedule.
I know that they did, and they played a ton
of berg games in the second half. Showed how frontloaded
they were. But you still would like to see more consistency.
I don't feel like they are. They're not the number
(11:57):
one team anymore. I get it, but they were just
the number one team a little over a week ago.
I don't feel like they have justified being the number
one team as much so as say a Boston college has.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Let's go to Northeastern at Yukon. Northeastern did very well
last Friday, Dan right.
Speaker 3 (12:16):
I'm not saying I didn't put any money on it,
because we don't bet college hockey games, but I did
order myself a pizza just to make myself feel like
I would have you know what.
Speaker 4 (12:27):
I threw an extra topic on there.
Speaker 3 (12:28):
We did the we did the roasted golic in addition
to the in addition of the peppers and onions on
that pizza.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
Bold move there.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
So it's Northeastern at Yukon. They're playing in stores on campus.
The first half of a home at home series over
under is five point five. Northeastern is the underdog at
plus one seventy five and Yukon minus two thirty at home.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
I'll tell you Yukon's playing great hockey right now, and
having I called there game lost Friday night, I think
it was against against me. Great game and overtime win
for Yukon down there in stores, and I'll tell you
right now I just feel like Mike Kavanaugh has this
team dialed in. They're playing smart hockey, they're playing hard.
(13:18):
They got a good midweek tie with Boston University. Mike
Cavanaugh even talked about a game he played I think
it was a week we go Wednesday against Alaska Anchorage.
It was just a single one off game in the
middle of the week, and he said that game might
have been the most important game in the season for
his club because he knew if they lost that they
(13:39):
would just plummet in the pairwise, this team just is
doing all the right things right now. You can give
me Yukon all day. Nothing against Northeastern, obviously, that was
a nice win. Lost Friday night, and it made Dan's
waistline get a little a little larger with the pizza.
But even at two thirty minus two thirty, I can't
(14:00):
bet against Yukon right now. Over under minus I'm sorry,
over under five and a half a minus one twenty
shading the under. I wouldn't even touch that. So this
unfortunately becomes a dope bet game for me. If you
do feel like you need to bet this one Yukon
and all the under. But I don't have a good
(14:22):
feeling out of the way in the over under, and
I just couldn't bet against Yukon right now.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
One thing that Yukon does exceptionally well is to me
is pois at home in the state of Connecticut, whether
at the Excel Center or whether whether they're they're in stores.
I it's interesting to me because the because they have
been basically have two home home buildings, and they basically
have two hometowns, whether you're playing on campus or off campus.
(14:51):
And it's always been unique in the way that going
into Hartford or playing in stores, it doesn't really matter
if they're able to draw and attract their fan base
in the fan base in Connecticut sticks with them, and
when they're good in any sport, the state of Connecticut
tends to rally behind them.
Speaker 4 (15:09):
It's actually, as I call.
Speaker 3 (15:10):
It, it's a lot like Providence in the sense that
it's a really good college and minor sports down in
the shadow of a Boston or in New York when
you're in between the two. So playing at home, that's
one thing that with the ice bus and with everything
in that building in stores, which the more and more
(15:30):
I look at it, I actually it's almost like I'm
looking at a twin to the Bengley Arena for me,
which means that the sound stays in. It's loud like
it's bigger. It's obviously bigger, has more seats, as more accoutrements,
if you will. But to me, being able to play
in that building with the way the sound echoes and
everything with it, to me, gives Yukon a decided advantage
over anybody going into stores right now.
Speaker 4 (15:54):
And for that reason, I can't take Northeastern on the road.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
Yukon is a very good home team, and as much
as I really an upset bid, just in general, Northeastern
got their upset bid, and my whole somebody season is
gonna get derailed or somebody season is going to take
a hit towards the end. Happened when Boston University lost
that game last week, because.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
It put BU in a bit of a like BU
sits two points behind.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
It's a missed opportunity to maybe launch into second place.
Speaker 4 (16:23):
I I don't.
Speaker 3 (16:26):
I just don't like Northeastern here, and Northeastern on the
road has not been They're they're maybe a little under
five hundred coming into this, So I don't.
Speaker 4 (16:38):
I just don't like it.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
On any type of value, which is why I take
con here and minus two thirty is not great value,
but it's enough to to maybe pair it with something
else along the line. Construction wise, I will say the
Tuscano Ice Forum. It does a really good job of
kind of holing this out down and echoing it when
it's packed. So it's a fun place to go in
(17:00):
a really good home I said, which I.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
Think, And credit to Yukon for naming two arenas in
a row and ice Forum. This episode is sponsored by
the NCAA Men's Division one Frozen four April tenth and
twelfth in Saint Louis.
Speaker 5 (17:16):
The NCAA Men's Frozen four, the pinnacle of men's collegiate
ice hawk Any question, Professor, NCAA Men's Hockey is back.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
Are we ready?
Speaker 5 (17:27):
You prepared to hype your squad for all three periods?
Bring glory home to your kimps. Oh, you're ready.
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It's Frozen four.
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Tome the NCAAA Men's Frozen four April tenth and twelfth,
twenty twenty five and Saint Louis. Buy your seas today
at NCAAA dot com.
Speaker 4 (17:43):
So that's Frozen four.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
We're back with the usc ch O edge. We got
a couple of games in the NCCHC. The first one
we're going to look at is Arizona State at Omaha.
They split in Tempe earlier in the season. Arizona State
coming off of four out of six points at home
against Western Michigan last weekend Omaha in the fight out
(18:08):
of range for first place, but still in a position
to be in the top half of the league and
have home ice in the playoffs. So these are big
games for both teams. Arizona State is minus one twenty five,
Omaha is minus one oh five at home, so very
close over under, not surprisingly to me anyways, six and
(18:29):
a half.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
This has been I'd probably say this has been a
dream entry into the NCCHC for Arizona State. They're probably
not going to win the league championship, but there at
least they were relevant right to the very end. Now
they're in a situation where they know that they can
basically sew up home ice, all of that good stuffs
(18:52):
that they want to do. But when all is said
and done, this Arizona State team is one that is
still on the outside looking in. I'm wondering what it
will take to pull them in I think that these
six points against Omaha may be the most important six
points that they've had to date. If they take five
(19:13):
or six, I think that their pair wise hopes go
in a really good direction. But if they start to
let them slip away, get split it at three, get
only two, get only one, you're talking now you're talking
a loss and a road tie. That's not good that's
not good enough. I think that is as much as
(19:35):
I'm sure Greg Powers wants to talk to his team
about what they're doing in their conference, they have to
look at this weekend as their springboard to the national tournament.
So I like Arizona State.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
With that in mind, I've been trying to figure out
the numbers around Omaha because I see them down in
the pair wise a little further down where they're down
to around the twenty eight range, but yet their second
in their conference. So knowing that they have to play Arizona
State and then North Dakota on the road, the I've
(20:06):
been always trying to wrap my head around the fact
that right now they have an eight percent chance of
making the NCAA Tournament, but on playoff status if they
went out minus the conference championship, it actually drops to
less than one percent, and I don't understand where the
math is coming from on that.
Speaker 4 (20:23):
And I'm reading it literally in front of me, as
I'm eight.
Speaker 1 (20:26):
Percent represents their chance to win the NCCA, it can
get their autobid.
Speaker 4 (20:31):
Okay, so that's fair.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
But let's say seven of the eight percent represented that.
Speaker 3 (20:37):
So I was like looking at it and I'm like,
I don't understand this in the math. Now, all of
that said, the fact that Omaha has been able to
lay its way into I'm sorry, into third place in
the NCCHA, I might have said they were in second place.
The fact that they're hanging around in between Arizona and
North Dakota Arizona State North Dakota, to me, opens the
(20:59):
window into what Omaha has left to accomplish this year.
With two weekends left, which is also the outside shot
at maybe getting after the top seed, they would need
a lot of help all that other stuff. I'm not
saying that's gonna happen, but I think of the two weekends,
I actually Omaha here not that knowing Arizona State's playing
for its national tournament life. Like you said, there's still
(21:22):
a little bit on the outside looking in on the NCCHC.
But Omaha isn't in Omaha. To me, being at minus
one oh five at home, I would have liked to
see them at maybe plus one hundred or a plus
one to plus one oh five or plus one fifteen.
But since I'm not gonna get that, I Omaha to
win one of these two games at home against Arizona State.
(21:43):
I just I think that there is enough left in
the sense of urgency for Omaha, knowing that this is
really the only weekend that you have left to boost
yourself into second place without some help, because you have
to play at North Dakota on the last week end
of the season, and the team that you're trying to
(22:04):
chase down is the team that's coming into your home
building this week.
Speaker 1 (22:08):
By the way, the over under of this is set
at six and a half, shading toward the under. If
you look at the two games, these two teams played
five and six goals with a number of goals scorer,
so they.
Speaker 4 (22:21):
Both went under.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
I don't know that that makes me feel secure, though
I still don't know that this is this is a
series this late in the season that will go under.
You do feel like defense usually starts to win out
as the season goes on, but we've seen some high
enough goals scoring numbers in certain games in the last
couple of weeks. I wouldn't touch even the over under here.
Speaker 3 (22:44):
I did say a couple of weeks ago, and this
is just kind of something to reiterate when it comes
to Omaha. They do not have the best their middle
tier offense statistically this year, their middle tier defense statistically
this year. From a power play standpoint, they are middle
tier about twenty two percent, down in the twenties. The
penalty kill is also sitting middle tier, about the twenty
(23:08):
to thirty five range, a little under eighty percent.
Speaker 4 (23:12):
They just don't give you enough.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
If you're looking for an edge, you really just have
to believe that this is a good matchup and that
they would be able to maybe spike something off of
Arizona State, which scores a lot of goals. So if
this is going to be an Omaha win, you would
want to look at the under because Arizona State, if
they hit their numbers of three and a half goals
(23:36):
per game, I don't think Omaha can necessarily like Oha.
Speaker 4 (23:42):
Arizona State in the over, Omaha in the under. As
I guess where I'm going with us.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
North Dakota is at Western Michigan. The Broncos are in
first place right now. They have twenty games played, so
they have four left in the league. They need three
points to get a share of first place in the
lad league. And I don't know all the tie breakers.
Arizona would seem to Arizona State would seem to have
the head to head, but three points, say four in
(24:09):
the next twelve points is what they need to sew
things up. So it's looking good for them. North Dakota
is just one point ahead of Denver for fourth place,
so these are huge points for the Fighting Hawks in
this The numbers on it five and a half is
the over under. North Dakota is a big underdog at
(24:29):
plus one ninety and Western Michigan favored at minus two fifty.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Hey, those are the right numbers when you really look
at it. North Dakota just hasn't been consistent. Western Michigan
has been nothing but consistent this year. They're at pole,
they're minus two fifty. Can you bet against them? Yes
you can? Why because you have to believe in the
desperation of North Dakota. Right now, they understand that they
(24:56):
need to play better hockey just to have good results.
They're trying to get full mice in the NCC quarter finals.
That's the number one, first and foremost for them. The
NCAA tournament, it almost feels like it's not even realistic.
They have an eleven percent chance, which has to be
(25:17):
predicated significantly on winning the NCCHC. So I feel like
this is a team that should be desperate Western Michigan
it's different. This is a team that has never been
in this position to clinch an NCCHC championship, and here
they are needing really just three points to clinch the tie.
Four points on the weekend or over the last two weekends,
(25:38):
they will have the outright championship. I say this is
one you just go with your heart. The values on
North Dakota, So I guess there is one thing we
should really look at. It's the value. If you feel
as tossed up as I am on this one, go
with the value. But I could make a case for
either team here easily, and the over under it five
(26:00):
and a half, don't touch it probably goes over. But
I don't think there's a lot of value, especially because
the over is minus one thirty five.
Speaker 3 (26:08):
Yeah, the thing for me with Western Michigan is that
it needs a little bit of help to get into
that top four the pair wise, and while that team
can get into the pairwise, can't get up into that
one seed. I'm not actually sure if the difference right
now for an NCCHC team to be a top four
seed becomes the difference between potentially playing in in Allentown
(26:34):
against Penn State, for example, or playing in.
Speaker 4 (26:39):
Playing Hockey East team.
Speaker 3 (26:41):
I still think they wind up maybe in Allentown regardless,
but Western Michigan against a team a Connecticut or like
a Boston University in the first round, depending on how
all that kind of shakes out if you're the four
versus the five in the national.
Speaker 4 (26:55):
Tournament in the pairwise.
Speaker 3 (26:57):
So it's interesting to me that there's a little bit
of something that needs to play out to get into
that top four seed. However, I think with North Dakota
in the value that North Dakota brings to me, there
aren't too many opportunities left for teams to improve their RPI,
and I don't think Western Michigan is the as the
(27:18):
four or the five seed actually has a great opportunity
to increase its RPI more than where it is.
Speaker 4 (27:24):
It would need Maine to drop out.
Speaker 3 (27:26):
So for me, the desperation at this point, besides finishing
first in the NCCHG, which everyone obviously you want to
win a regular season championship. You want trophies North Dakota
being tied with Clarkson in the RPI for eighteen and
having an opportunity to maybe gain some space over teams
that are in front of it, between Western Michigan, which
(27:47):
would be the road bonus with Arizona State, I think
in that or Omaha rather in that last weekend, which
is a team that's behind them.
Speaker 4 (27:57):
I just North Dakota's inspiration at this point.
Speaker 3 (28:01):
They've been playing significantly better the last month, and to me,
that's the big thing.
Speaker 4 (28:07):
When you have a team that is able to beat Denver.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
Colorado College has had well documented issues, but they came
back and won a Saturday game there.
Speaker 4 (28:15):
They beat Saint Cloud, North Dakota. Did they beat Minnesota Duluth.
Speaker 3 (28:18):
They've beaten these teams, with the exception of Western Michigan.
There's your last white Whale. I think North Dakota can
pull this one off on Friday.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
Okay, Captain ahab, We're going to go to our pizza
money game New Hampshire at Boston College. The over under
on this one is six and a half and the
reason it's the pizza money game is New Hampshire is
plus three eighty on the road and Boston College is
minus five to eighty at home.
Speaker 1 (28:48):
I hate betty against Boston College at home, but if
I were to bet this game, I would take New
Hampshire for the value. You and h had a two
to one lead on Boston College a couple of weeks
ago at home in the third period and then things
went south on them. They ended up losing that game
far to two. This New Hampshire team has had itself
(29:10):
in really good position every game really for the last month,
and they are not finding ways to win them. If
one of these games straightens out, that's a pretty good payday.
So again, I don't know that if I was a
gambler on this and I was betting, I don't know
that I would be running toward this one. But pizza money,
(29:32):
I would actually put this one on you and Age
knowing that I'm probably not going to have any pizza
to eat Friday night.
Speaker 3 (29:40):
This is an intervention for all the pizza I've eaten
over the course of the year. This is an intervention
I for all of the pizza talk.
Speaker 4 (29:49):
I feel like.
Speaker 3 (29:52):
This is a This is a commentary about my expanding waistline.
Because we all know I'm never going to pick pick
a game involving Boston College. It's just not I host
a podcast for VC, I do writing for BC, So
I'm not gonna I'm not gonna do I'm not gonna
do that, right, I'm not gonna I've said that I'm gonna.
Speaker 4 (30:10):
Only give you a key to victory.
Speaker 3 (30:11):
So instead we're gonna make the pizza money bet of
Boston College game. To me that when you know that
I would want to take the pizza money bet. So
I think this is an intervention against me having pizza
this week, especially after I said that with Northeastern.
Speaker 4 (30:25):
Luckily, I don't bet.
Speaker 3 (30:26):
College hockey, so that's that's always the Astros to throw
in there. Now here's my thing about my kind of
my key to victory on this one when I talk
about unh is exactly what you said, which is and
I think this is where the numbers get skewed a
bit in and I've said before you can use the
odds to determine what the computers and what experts or
(30:48):
analysts believe is the most likely result. So when you
and H has a very long number against it, it
means nobody believes UNH can win this game. The point
about UNH, though, is that the reason why is because
they've lost all those games in Boston College has won
all those games. It is considerably straightforward, But my issue
(31:10):
with it is that it ignores the fact that UNH
has always seemed to have been a step behind winning
those games they've played. They've done a lot of things
right up there except win hockey games, which I guess
is the end result of what you're looking for. If
UNH can put something together down the stretch in a
(31:31):
sense that they've the analytics love them, they've been exceptionally
well in certain areas. If they can combine everything and
put the puck in the back of the net, they're
going to ruin an upend somebody's last month and maybe
someone in the playoffs. So does that mean they're going
to win? I don't know that's the any given day.
(31:53):
That's my plus, Like I said, picking a BC game
for me is this is that's.
Speaker 4 (31:59):
A fun for me.
Speaker 3 (32:00):
So for me looking at a UNH team, though, there
is the possibility that UNH puts everything together and scores
itself a decent win, particular purely on the road.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
I think that getting away.
Speaker 3 (32:15):
From New Hampshire for a Friday might actually be a
decent thing to have happened.
Speaker 4 (32:22):
I know they played Vermont at home on a Friday.
Speaker 3 (32:25):
I like having the road game on a Friday as
opposed to the Saturday game because I like being able
to come home and finish the weekend at home.
Speaker 4 (32:32):
So I think there's a lot of trending.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
Here's the funny thing is that you and h being
in last place is the Hockey East point of the week.
There's still twentieth in the pair wise. They can't climb up,
they can't get in that large pit. But your last
place team, your last placere wise team for Hockey East, I'm.
Speaker 4 (32:51):
Pretty sure it's still higher than ninety percent of.
Speaker 3 (32:55):
The rest leagues, like second and third place teams out East.
Like it's better than you. It's gotta be better than
Atlanta Hockey. It's probably better than most of the NCCHC.
It's gotta be better than Ccha. Freaky how good Hockey
East really is this year.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
Dan, If it makes you feel any better, you could
order a half cheese, half pepperoni and then split the difference.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
See, I'm still in on the like what we called
don't people from not from Boston. I'm sure they have
it named Someway the Fenway when you get the sausage
Pepperson onion. Yeah, they don't name it the no but
whenever it's named, like maybe it's called like your home
run hitter at your baseball like Bronz is just the fed,
Like you ordered it as a Fenway, but like you're
I don't know what they would call it outside of
New England, but you throw a little garlic on that.
Speaker 4 (33:39):
That was like the That was the Primo pick last week.
That was a great idea on my part With that,
we're gonna wrap up.
Speaker 2 (33:47):
This episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division One
Frozen four, April tenth and twelfth in Saint Louis. Get
your tickets now at NCAA dot com slash Frozen four.
Jim Connolly for Dan Rubin, I'm ed Trebsker and this
has been us c h O Edge
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to US Echo Edge for Friday, February twenty eight,
twenty twenty five. This episode is sponsored by the NCAA
Men's Division one Frozen four April tenth and twelfth in
Saint Louis. Get your tickets now at NCAA dot com
slash Frozen four. I'm Ed Trevsker alongside Jim Connolly and
Dan Rubin. We're looking at a lot of games that
(00:34):
have playoff and postseason implications, and we're going to start
out with what may be the biggest one this weekend,
and that is Minnesota at Penn State. The Friday game
has an over under of six and a half. Minnesota
is the road favorite at minus two twenty Penn State
at home is plus one seventy.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
And this is just a great story for the Golphers
to be in this position here here they are potentially
to win a league championship, despite the fact that they
haven't been talked about a lot this year. And I
don't say that as a ball to anybody. I just
think that this has been a great year to talk
about Michigan State. But when all the chips are on
the are down last weekend, the big weekend came from
(01:20):
Minnesota and not Penn State, and I think that that's
what makes this such an interesting weekend. Don't forget the
team that laid some damage down last week against Michigan
State was Penn State. Nothing says that this is an
easy weekend for Minnesota going on the road, but I do.
(01:41):
I still like the golfers they've played. They've really played
well down the stretch. At minus two twenty, they're not
somebody I would bet. But I would also not bet
Penn State at all, even at plus one seventy good value,
and this team knows what they're doing right now. If
they win these games weekend, they probably play themselves into
(02:02):
the NCAA tournament. So there's a lot on the line
for Penn State.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
But I still like Minnesota seeway Penn State here and
the reason Ford is riding the hot hand. Penn State
has only lost one game in regulation since I think
the second half of the season, and that was one
of the Michigan games when they got blown out in
Ann Arbor playing at home. They have not lost a
(02:28):
regulation game since essentially the first of the year, when
they lost to Michigan State at home, and they were
a very different team. I feel then, not necessarily thinking
that Penn State is gonna win, but looking at the
value for me is there just based on where the
number lies, they do have a fifty to fifty shot
(02:49):
right now Penn State of getting into the tournament. I
think that increases dramatically with a win this weekend. If
they sweep, then they're on the right side of the
cut line. And given that you may plays UMass loll,
there's gonna be some cannibalization there. Plus whatever happens with
Quinnepiak or whatever happens with Michigan, it's going to allow
them to work their way in. I think there's enough
(03:12):
at stake for Penn State to make that run. I
do think that the regular season championship for Minnesota in
the Big Ten matters. I think it's it matters significantly,
especially the difference between being the two to three and
the three seed and potentially having to where you're gonna
wind up based on if and when Penn State potentially
(03:34):
gets into the tournament. So where that all might shake
down for texts Minnesota if they can somehow jump over
Michigan State in the Pairwise, I just like Penn State.
Speaker 4 (03:45):
With the value right now. I think that's a well
placed nine.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
I think the line in the money line shows exactly
what we would expect from these teams, being a twenty
three win Minnesota team and a Penn State team that
had its struggles earlier in the years. I really like
where the numb shook down, but in a betting standpoint,
it trends towards Penn State. I wouldn't touch Minnesota though
on the money online. That's just there's no value there.
(04:09):
I get the hot team on the road, there's no value.
Here's one that's interesting is that they have the over
under set at six and a half. It's actually shaded
minus one twenty to the over. But when these two
teams played earlier this year, and it was earlier, it
was way back November first and second. But the final
(04:29):
scores these games in Minnesota three to one, one nothing.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Both results for Minnesota not even close to seven. So
I know that these teams are playing different hockey. And
I look at Minnesota and they put up ten goals
last weekend. They're scoring in bunches at times. Wisconsin they
had nine and that weekend, and Penn State's coming off,
they're finally seeing some offense from their team. But I
(04:56):
still don't know that this game gets to seven. So
if I saw one thing to bet on here that
I liked, I think I would take the under for
these two teams.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
I agree, I don't think that the over under is
conducive right now. They both there's about a half goal
difference between the team statistically this year, where Penn State
is about a half goal worse defensively than Men's than
the Minnesota and men State.
Speaker 4 (05:21):
Let's just merged the two teams and see what happens.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
Apparently, but Minnesota, I like the number being shaded a
bit towards the under because I think this is going
to stay under, just on the fact that while there's
a half goal difference, it's not enough for me to
make up to that six and a half.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
So Penn State last weekend at mon Arena held Michigan
State to two goals in each game, beat what was
then the number one team in the country. Is Minnesota
a lot better than Michigan State? Or is Minnesota going
to be about the same level of foe And now
Penn State is to take them on at Pegula Ice Arena.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
Think that they're about the same in terms of teams.
I don't think that Minnesota or Michigan State is hands
heading told us above each other. I guess the question
you're asking you is, should this be favored the same
line it was against Michigan State. It probably should. I
think Michigan State was slightly bigger favorite last week. I
(06:25):
think the fact that you're playing this Apagoula probably does
a lot to sway this line toward Penn State a
little plus their results from last weekend. But yeah, I
don't see a lot of separation from really either of
those two teams, Michigan State or Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
I guess I'm tipping my hand on this one if
I were putting a comment in, and I guess I
am right now, I'm taking Penn State and I'm taken
under gaven how they've been playing.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
I don't mind that bad.
Speaker 1 (06:52):
I just I still think that Minnesota is playing really
right now, and I think that's probably going to show
up or the fact they really manhandled a really good
Ohio State team last weekend and is as much as
I think it opened our eyes to see Penn State
take five out of six from Michigan State, I think
(07:13):
my eyes were just as open, maybe even more so
opened by what Ohio Minnesota didekinst Ohio State.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
The other key matchup we're looking at in the Big
Ten has Michigan State at Notre Dame over under on
this one's five and a half, Michigan State is a
minus two fifty and Notre Dame is a plus one ninety.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Yeah, this is a tougher game for me, just coming
off of the last week's weekend for Penn State. I
don't love that they have to go on the road
with this one. That said, I just don't see another
bad weekend for Michigan State here I see them. This
is a team that has not swept a weekend. The
(07:56):
last time they swept a weekend was with January second
and fourth. They had a win to tie with a
shootout loss. They had a win in a tie where
they shootout win, but they have not actually taken all
six and actually going back to the weekend that they swept,
(08:17):
they did not even take all six points out of that.
So the last time they took all six points out
of a Big Ten weekend Notre Dame. Now that was
at all three of the decisions there, but because of
that and because of the fact I just don't see
Minnesota State putting up another bad weekend.
Speaker 4 (08:37):
I like Sparti here.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
Excluding the trip to Belfast, the last time Notre Dame
won the first game of a two game weekend was
November one against Wisconsin, and they have since. I think
there were a couple ties in there where they went
maybe went to a shootout, or I might be missing
a game in there specifically, but I couldn't find a
(09:02):
game in their schedule where they won on Friday, and
in fact, the win over Wisconsin on Saturday last week
the last time that they actually outright beat a team
in the Big Ten, and I think was Wisconsin, So
they have not won a lot of games.
Speaker 4 (09:23):
They beat Michigan.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
They beat Michigan in middle of January, so it has
not been a good ride for Notre Dame this year,
which is why even at plus one ninety, I don't
actually think there's enough value to take them against Michigan State,
knowing that Michigan State still has a chance to win
the Big Ten if Penn State is able to hold
up its end of the bargain against Minnesota. So for me,
(09:44):
the fact that there's only that two point differential, that
Michigan State is playing its way into the number two
seed in the national tournament, that there's the Big Ten
championship potentially at stake. Facing Notre Dame to me is
not If this thus were maybe a plus two to
fifty or even a plus two to seventy five, I
might consider Notre Dame just on value, but I don't
(10:06):
even see the value on plus one ninety.
Speaker 4 (10:09):
It shades to the.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
Under as an underdog for But even then, I don't particket.
When Notre Dame hasn't been it has been able to score,
they've hit the over, and when Notre Dame can't score,
it hits the over. So it's a tough draw for
me to hit under on five and a half on this.
But I don't like any game going over in the
(10:32):
last weekend of the season. But that said, I don't
like taking Notre Dame in this, and I'm not sure
that there's any value on Michigan State at minus two
to fifty to win to win a bet, so I
maybe even stay away from this one unless you're throwing
a Hail Mary on Notre Dame no pun intended.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
I guess the over under is the only other place
to go here, and I really like the over here.
I know it's shades to minus one thirty. That might
be the highest we've seen this year, minus one third
an over five and a half goals. But the last
time these two teams played together, they were in the
eight to ten per range. I see that again. I
(11:10):
definitely don't see it stay under five or under these
two teams. Like you said, Dan, even when Notre Dame's
not playing well, they're giving up enough goals to hit
the over. I see this game, really, this whole series.
I see there's both games in this one reaching the
over if it stays at five and a half very quickly.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Was last weekend a wake up call at the right
time for Michigan State?
Speaker 1 (11:35):
I hope so. I'm not sure, but well, I guess
we'll see this weekend, but you certainly hope so. They've
needed it. And listen, they had a tough second half schedule.
I know that they did, and they played a ton
of berg games in the second half. Showed how frontloaded
they were. But you still would like to see more consistency.
I don't feel like they are. They're not the number
(11:57):
one team anymore. I get it, but they were just
the number one team a little over a week ago.
I don't feel like they have justified being the number
one team as much so as say a Boston college has.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Let's go to Northeastern at Yukon. Northeastern did very well
last Friday, Dan right.
Speaker 3 (12:16):
I'm not saying I didn't put any money on it,
because we don't bet college hockey games, but I did
order myself a pizza just to make myself feel like
I would have you know what.
Speaker 4 (12:27):
I threw an extra topic on there.
Speaker 3 (12:28):
We did the we did the roasted golic in addition
to the in addition of the peppers and onions on
that pizza.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
Bold move there.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
So it's Northeastern at Yukon. They're playing in stores on campus.
The first half of a home at home series over
under is five point five. Northeastern is the underdog at
plus one seventy five and Yukon minus two thirty at home.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
I'll tell you Yukon's playing great hockey right now, and
having I called there game lost Friday night, I think
it was against against me. Great game and overtime win
for Yukon down there in stores, and I'll tell you
right now I just feel like Mike Kavanaugh has this
team dialed in. They're playing smart hockey, they're playing hard.
(13:18):
They got a good midweek tie with Boston University. Mike
Cavanaugh even talked about a game he played I think
it was a week we go Wednesday against Alaska Anchorage.
It was just a single one off game in the
middle of the week, and he said that game might
have been the most important game in the season for
his club because he knew if they lost that they
(13:39):
would just plummet in the pairwise, this team just is
doing all the right things right now. You can give
me Yukon all day. Nothing against Northeastern, obviously, that was
a nice win. Lost Friday night, and it made Dan's
waistline get a little a little larger with the pizza.
But even at two thirty minus two thirty, I can't
(14:00):
bet against Yukon right now. Over under minus I'm sorry,
over under five and a half a minus one twenty
shading the under. I wouldn't even touch that. So this
unfortunately becomes a dope bet game for me. If you
do feel like you need to bet this one Yukon
and all the under. But I don't have a good
(14:22):
feeling out of the way in the over under, and
I just couldn't bet against Yukon right now.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
One thing that Yukon does exceptionally well is to me
is pois at home in the state of Connecticut, whether
at the Excel Center or whether whether they're they're in stores.
I it's interesting to me because the because they have
been basically have two home home buildings, and they basically
have two hometowns, whether you're playing on campus or off campus.
(14:51):
And it's always been unique in the way that going
into Hartford or playing in stores, it doesn't really matter
if they're able to draw and attract their fan base
in the fan base in Connecticut sticks with them, and
when they're good in any sport, the state of Connecticut
tends to rally behind them.
Speaker 4 (15:09):
It's actually, as I call.
Speaker 3 (15:10):
It, it's a lot like Providence in the sense that
it's a really good college and minor sports down in
the shadow of a Boston or in New York when
you're in between the two. So playing at home, that's
one thing that with the ice bus and with everything
in that building in stores, which the more and more
(15:30):
I look at it, I actually it's almost like I'm
looking at a twin to the Bengley Arena for me,
which means that the sound stays in. It's loud like
it's bigger. It's obviously bigger, has more seats, as more accoutrements,
if you will. But to me, being able to play
in that building with the way the sound echoes and
everything with it, to me, gives Yukon a decided advantage
over anybody going into stores right now.
Speaker 4 (15:54):
And for that reason, I can't take Northeastern on the road.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
Yukon is a very good home team, and as much
as I really an upset bid, just in general, Northeastern
got their upset bid, and my whole somebody season is
gonna get derailed or somebody season is going to take
a hit towards the end. Happened when Boston University lost
that game last week, because.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
It put BU in a bit of a like BU
sits two points behind.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
It's a missed opportunity to maybe launch into second place.
Speaker 4 (16:23):
I I don't.
Speaker 3 (16:26):
I just don't like Northeastern here, and Northeastern on the
road has not been They're they're maybe a little under
five hundred coming into this, So I don't.
Speaker 4 (16:38):
I just don't like it.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
On any type of value, which is why I take
con here and minus two thirty is not great value,
but it's enough to to maybe pair it with something
else along the line. Construction wise, I will say the
Tuscano Ice Forum. It does a really good job of
kind of holing this out down and echoing it when
it's packed. So it's a fun place to go in
(17:00):
a really good home I said, which I.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
Think, And credit to Yukon for naming two arenas in
a row and ice Forum. This episode is sponsored by
the NCAA Men's Division one Frozen four April tenth and
twelfth in Saint Louis.
Speaker 5 (17:16):
The NCAA Men's Frozen four, the pinnacle of men's collegiate
ice hawk Any question, Professor, NCAA Men's Hockey is back.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
Are we ready?
Speaker 5 (17:27):
You prepared to hype your squad for all three periods?
Bring glory home to your kimps. Oh, you're ready.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
It's Frozen four.
Speaker 5 (17:36):
Tome the NCAAA Men's Frozen four April tenth and twelfth,
twenty twenty five and Saint Louis. Buy your seas today
at NCAAA dot com.
Speaker 4 (17:43):
So that's Frozen four.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
We're back with the usc ch O edge. We got
a couple of games in the NCCHC. The first one
we're going to look at is Arizona State at Omaha.
They split in Tempe earlier in the season. Arizona State
coming off of four out of six points at home
against Western Michigan last weekend Omaha in the fight out
(18:08):
of range for first place, but still in a position
to be in the top half of the league and
have home ice in the playoffs. So these are big
games for both teams. Arizona State is minus one twenty five,
Omaha is minus one oh five at home, so very
close over under, not surprisingly to me anyways, six and
(18:29):
a half.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
This has been I'd probably say this has been a
dream entry into the NCCHC for Arizona State. They're probably
not going to win the league championship, but there at
least they were relevant right to the very end. Now
they're in a situation where they know that they can
basically sew up home ice, all of that good stuffs
(18:52):
that they want to do. But when all is said
and done, this Arizona State team is one that is
still on the outside looking in. I'm wondering what it
will take to pull them in I think that these
six points against Omaha may be the most important six
points that they've had to date. If they take five
(19:13):
or six, I think that their pair wise hopes go
in a really good direction. But if they start to
let them slip away, get split it at three, get
only two, get only one, you're talking now you're talking
a loss and a road tie. That's not good that's
not good enough. I think that is as much as
(19:35):
I'm sure Greg Powers wants to talk to his team
about what they're doing in their conference, they have to
look at this weekend as their springboard to the national tournament.
So I like Arizona State.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
With that in mind, I've been trying to figure out
the numbers around Omaha because I see them down in
the pair wise a little further down where they're down
to around the twenty eight range, but yet their second
in their conference. So knowing that they have to play Arizona
State and then North Dakota on the road, the I've
(20:06):
been always trying to wrap my head around the fact
that right now they have an eight percent chance of
making the NCAA Tournament, but on playoff status if they
went out minus the conference championship, it actually drops to
less than one percent, and I don't understand where the
math is coming from on that.
Speaker 4 (20:23):
And I'm reading it literally in front of me, as
I'm eight.
Speaker 1 (20:26):
Percent represents their chance to win the NCCA, it can
get their autobid.
Speaker 4 (20:31):
Okay, so that's fair.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
But let's say seven of the eight percent represented that.
Speaker 3 (20:37):
So I was like looking at it and I'm like,
I don't understand this in the math. Now, all of
that said, the fact that Omaha has been able to
lay its way into I'm sorry, into third place in
the NCCHA, I might have said they were in second place.
The fact that they're hanging around in between Arizona and
North Dakota Arizona State North Dakota, to me, opens the
(20:59):
window into what Omaha has left to accomplish this year.
With two weekends left, which is also the outside shot
at maybe getting after the top seed, they would need
a lot of help all that other stuff. I'm not
saying that's gonna happen, but I think of the two weekends,
I actually Omaha here not that knowing Arizona State's playing
for its national tournament life. Like you said, there's still
(21:22):
a little bit on the outside looking in on the NCCHC.
But Omaha isn't in Omaha. To me, being at minus
one oh five at home, I would have liked to
see them at maybe plus one hundred or a plus
one to plus one oh five or plus one fifteen.
But since I'm not gonna get that, I Omaha to
win one of these two games at home against Arizona State.
(21:43):
I just I think that there is enough left in
the sense of urgency for Omaha, knowing that this is
really the only weekend that you have left to boost
yourself into second place without some help, because you have
to play at North Dakota on the last week end
of the season, and the team that you're trying to
(22:04):
chase down is the team that's coming into your home
building this week.
Speaker 1 (22:08):
By the way, the over under of this is set
at six and a half, shading toward the under. If
you look at the two games, these two teams played
five and six goals with a number of goals scorer,
so they.
Speaker 4 (22:21):
Both went under.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
I don't know that that makes me feel secure, though
I still don't know that this is this is a
series this late in the season that will go under.
You do feel like defense usually starts to win out
as the season goes on, but we've seen some high
enough goals scoring numbers in certain games in the last
couple of weeks. I wouldn't touch even the over under here.
Speaker 3 (22:44):
I did say a couple of weeks ago, and this
is just kind of something to reiterate when it comes
to Omaha. They do not have the best their middle
tier offense statistically this year, their middle tier defense statistically
this year. From a power play standpoint, they are middle
tier about twenty two percent, down in the twenties. The
penalty kill is also sitting middle tier, about the twenty
(23:08):
to thirty five range, a little under eighty percent.
Speaker 4 (23:12):
They just don't give you enough.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
If you're looking for an edge, you really just have
to believe that this is a good matchup and that
they would be able to maybe spike something off of
Arizona State, which scores a lot of goals. So if
this is going to be an Omaha win, you would
want to look at the under because Arizona State, if
they hit their numbers of three and a half goals
(23:36):
per game, I don't think Omaha can necessarily like Oha.
Speaker 4 (23:42):
Arizona State in the over, Omaha in the under. As
I guess where I'm going with us.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
North Dakota is at Western Michigan. The Broncos are in
first place right now. They have twenty games played, so
they have four left in the league. They need three
points to get a share of first place in the
lad league. And I don't know all the tie breakers.
Arizona would seem to Arizona State would seem to have
the head to head, but three points, say four in
(24:09):
the next twelve points is what they need to sew
things up. So it's looking good for them. North Dakota
is just one point ahead of Denver for fourth place,
so these are huge points for the Fighting Hawks in
this The numbers on it five and a half is
the over under. North Dakota is a big underdog at
(24:29):
plus one ninety and Western Michigan favored at minus two fifty.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Hey, those are the right numbers when you really look
at it. North Dakota just hasn't been consistent. Western Michigan
has been nothing but consistent this year. They're at pole,
they're minus two fifty. Can you bet against them? Yes
you can? Why because you have to believe in the
desperation of North Dakota. Right now, they understand that they
(24:56):
need to play better hockey just to have good results.
They're trying to get full mice in the NCC quarter finals.
That's the number one, first and foremost for them. The
NCAA tournament, it almost feels like it's not even realistic.
They have an eleven percent chance, which has to be
(25:17):
predicated significantly on winning the NCCHC. So I feel like
this is a team that should be desperate Western Michigan
it's different. This is a team that has never been
in this position to clinch an NCCHC championship, and here
they are needing really just three points to clinch the tie.
Four points on the weekend or over the last two weekends,
(25:38):
they will have the outright championship. I say this is
one you just go with your heart. The values on
North Dakota, So I guess there is one thing we
should really look at. It's the value. If you feel
as tossed up as I am on this one, go
with the value. But I could make a case for
either team here easily, and the over under it five
(26:00):
and a half, don't touch it probably goes over. But
I don't think there's a lot of value, especially because
the over is minus one thirty five.
Speaker 3 (26:08):
Yeah, the thing for me with Western Michigan is that
it needs a little bit of help to get into
that top four the pair wise, and while that team
can get into the pairwise, can't get up into that
one seed. I'm not actually sure if the difference right
now for an NCCHC team to be a top four
seed becomes the difference between potentially playing in in Allentown
(26:34):
against Penn State, for example, or playing in.
Speaker 4 (26:39):
Playing Hockey East team.
Speaker 3 (26:41):
I still think they wind up maybe in Allentown regardless,
but Western Michigan against a team a Connecticut or like
a Boston University in the first round, depending on how
all that kind of shakes out if you're the four
versus the five in the national.
Speaker 4 (26:55):
Tournament in the pairwise.
Speaker 3 (26:57):
So it's interesting to me that there's a little bit
of something that needs to play out to get into
that top four seed. However, I think with North Dakota
in the value that North Dakota brings to me, there
aren't too many opportunities left for teams to improve their RPI,
and I don't think Western Michigan is the as the
(27:18):
four or the five seed actually has a great opportunity
to increase its RPI more than where it is.
Speaker 4 (27:24):
It would need Maine to drop out.
Speaker 3 (27:26):
So for me, the desperation at this point, besides finishing
first in the NCCHG, which everyone obviously you want to
win a regular season championship. You want trophies North Dakota
being tied with Clarkson in the RPI for eighteen and
having an opportunity to maybe gain some space over teams
that are in front of it, between Western Michigan, which
(27:47):
would be the road bonus with Arizona State, I think
in that or Omaha rather in that last weekend, which
is a team that's behind them.
Speaker 4 (27:57):
I just North Dakota's inspiration at this point.
Speaker 3 (28:01):
They've been playing significantly better the last month, and to me,
that's the big thing.
Speaker 4 (28:07):
When you have a team that is able to beat Denver.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
Colorado College has had well documented issues, but they came
back and won a Saturday game there.
Speaker 4 (28:15):
They beat Saint Cloud, North Dakota. Did they beat Minnesota Duluth.
Speaker 3 (28:18):
They've beaten these teams, with the exception of Western Michigan.
There's your last white Whale. I think North Dakota can
pull this one off on Friday.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
Okay, Captain ahab, We're going to go to our pizza
money game New Hampshire at Boston College. The over under
on this one is six and a half and the
reason it's the pizza money game is New Hampshire is
plus three eighty on the road and Boston College is
minus five to eighty at home.
Speaker 1 (28:48):
I hate betty against Boston College at home, but if
I were to bet this game, I would take New
Hampshire for the value. You and h had a two
to one lead on Boston College a couple of weeks
ago at home in the third period and then things
went south on them. They ended up losing that game
far to two. This New Hampshire team has had itself
(29:10):
in really good position every game really for the last month,
and they are not finding ways to win them. If
one of these games straightens out, that's a pretty good payday.
So again, I don't know that if I was a
gambler on this and I was betting, I don't know
that I would be running toward this one. But pizza money,
(29:32):
I would actually put this one on you and Age
knowing that I'm probably not going to have any pizza
to eat Friday night.
Speaker 3 (29:40):
This is an intervention for all the pizza I've eaten
over the course of the year. This is an intervention
I for all of the pizza talk.
Speaker 4 (29:49):
I feel like.
Speaker 3 (29:52):
This is a This is a commentary about my expanding waistline.
Because we all know I'm never going to pick pick
a game involving Boston College. It's just not I host
a podcast for VC, I do writing for BC, So
I'm not gonna I'm not gonna do I'm not gonna
do that, right, I'm not gonna I've said that I'm gonna.
Speaker 4 (30:10):
Only give you a key to victory.
Speaker 3 (30:11):
So instead we're gonna make the pizza money bet of
Boston College game. To me that when you know that
I would want to take the pizza money bet. So
I think this is an intervention against me having pizza
this week, especially after I said that with Northeastern.
Speaker 4 (30:25):
Luckily, I don't bet.
Speaker 3 (30:26):
College hockey, so that's that's always the Astros to throw
in there. Now here's my thing about my kind of
my key to victory on this one when I talk
about unh is exactly what you said, which is and
I think this is where the numbers get skewed a
bit in and I've said before you can use the
odds to determine what the computers and what experts or
(30:48):
analysts believe is the most likely result. So when you
and H has a very long number against it, it
means nobody believes UNH can win this game. The point
about UNH, though, is that the reason why is because
they've lost all those games in Boston College has won
all those games. It is considerably straightforward, But my issue
(31:10):
with it is that it ignores the fact that UNH
has always seemed to have been a step behind winning
those games they've played. They've done a lot of things
right up there except win hockey games, which I guess
is the end result of what you're looking for. If
UNH can put something together down the stretch in a
(31:31):
sense that they've the analytics love them, they've been exceptionally
well in certain areas. If they can combine everything and
put the puck in the back of the net, they're
going to ruin an upend somebody's last month and maybe
someone in the playoffs. So does that mean they're going
to win? I don't know that's the any given day.
(31:53):
That's my plus, Like I said, picking a BC game
for me is this is that's.
Speaker 4 (31:59):
A fun for me.
Speaker 3 (32:00):
So for me looking at a UNH team, though, there
is the possibility that UNH puts everything together and scores
itself a decent win, particular purely on the road.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
I think that getting away.
Speaker 3 (32:15):
From New Hampshire for a Friday might actually be a
decent thing to have happened.
Speaker 4 (32:22):
I know they played Vermont at home on a Friday.
Speaker 3 (32:25):
I like having the road game on a Friday as
opposed to the Saturday game because I like being able
to come home and finish the weekend at home.
Speaker 4 (32:32):
So I think there's a lot of trending.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
Here's the funny thing is that you and h being
in last place is the Hockey East point of the week.
There's still twentieth in the pair wise. They can't climb up,
they can't get in that large pit. But your last
place team, your last placere wise team for Hockey East, I'm.
Speaker 4 (32:51):
Pretty sure it's still higher than ninety percent of.
Speaker 3 (32:55):
The rest leagues, like second and third place teams out East.
Like it's better than you. It's gotta be better than
Atlanta Hockey. It's probably better than most of the NCCHC.
It's gotta be better than Ccha. Freaky how good Hockey
East really is this year.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
Dan, If it makes you feel any better, you could
order a half cheese, half pepperoni and then split the difference.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
See, I'm still in on the like what we called
don't people from not from Boston. I'm sure they have
it named Someway the Fenway when you get the sausage
Pepperson onion. Yeah, they don't name it the no but
whenever it's named, like maybe it's called like your home
run hitter at your baseball like Bronz is just the fed,
Like you ordered it as a Fenway, but like you're
I don't know what they would call it outside of
New England, but you throw a little garlic on that.
Speaker 4 (33:39):
That was like the That was the Primo pick last week.
That was a great idea on my part With that,
we're gonna wrap up.
Speaker 2 (33:47):
This episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division One
Frozen four, April tenth and twelfth in Saint Louis. Get
your tickets now at NCAA dot com slash Frozen four.
Jim Connolly for Dan Rubin, I'm ed Trebsker and this
has been us c h O Edge
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