Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to us Cho Edge for Thursday, March twentieth, twenty
twenty five. I'm ed Trefsker alongside Jim Connolly and Dan Rubin.
This episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division one
Frozen four April tenth and twelfth in Saint Louis.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
Get your tickets now at.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
NCAA dot com slash Frozen four.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Gentlemen.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
We're doing this a day early because games start this evening.
It's the semifinal round of TD Garden for Hockey East.
The early game has Yukon versus Boston University over under
his six and a half in this one Bus minus
one thirty five Yukon plus one oh five. If you
(00:56):
had told us earlier in the season the odds would
be that close, we might have been surprised. But the
Huskies are surging.
Speaker 1 (01:03):
I think going into this weekend this is the team
of the four for Hockey East playing the best.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
They almost sometimes like a team of destiny the way.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
They got through the second half of the season. They
got banged up, nicked up at times.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Even last last week's quarterfinal game.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
They had some of their players go down but found
ways to win, and I think that's been their whole season.
I like actually the odds that they're getting here that
I wasn't sure that they'd even have plus odds for
either of these teams because they're so evenly max. Yeah,
give me Yukon here. I would still stay under. I
(01:46):
don't feel like these teams are going to get up
to seven.
Speaker 4 (01:49):
I agree, I don't think they're getting to seven. So
I'm looking under. Have I had you a couple of
weeks ago in our course in this league, I think
the odds on you konn are giving you enough to
ride with them. They are going to be assuming Yukon
wins the league or is going to win the league,
which is what I feel they are.
Speaker 5 (02:07):
They're the right betting option here.
Speaker 4 (02:09):
They are going to be an underdog to Boston University
mentioned and then if they get to the championship game,
they will be a bigger underdog against Maine depending on
what happens with Maine Northeastern.
Speaker 5 (02:20):
So I like Yukon.
Speaker 4 (02:22):
I would ride Yukon until they lose or until you
get basically favorite odds on them. But I really like
the ice bus, especially coming down the pike with it.
Speaker 5 (02:34):
I'm gonna I'm gonna call out Eric All Anthony hair
with you, Jimmy, what did he say?
Speaker 4 (02:37):
Clear the pike. The ice bus is coming to Boston
and they're coming back.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
They will take on the winner of the other half
of that matchup, and the late semi final has the
ninth overall seed Northeastern taking on Maine. The Huskies surprise
three to one winners over Boston College on Saturday. Over
under on this one is a slim four and a half.
(03:02):
Northeastern's plus two twenty and Maine is minus two ninety eight.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
As a heavy favorite, very heavy favorite.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
If we had a Pizza money back this week special
playoff edition, we probably won't have one, but this would
probably beat it.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
This is some wide odds.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
All I'm gonna say is that you can't just right
off Northeastern Boston College. I don't know that they did.
I thought they actually played quite well, but Northeastern Cameron
White had the goaltenders starting and get caught at the
right time of year. They're a dangerous team. And if
either of these teams is going to win, if they
(03:41):
have a formula, it will be a two to one,
a three to one game.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
So I like the under. I just I don't mind
the odds on Main. I'm sorry on Northeastern.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Maine was my pick before the tournament started to win
if it wasn't Boston College. But now I look at
it and I say, if we're going to factor odds
into it, I don't mind Northeastern.
Speaker 5 (04:03):
I really like odds on Northeastern anyway.
Speaker 4 (04:05):
As like you said, a pizza tight bet, I don't
like the over under. I wouldn't take the I wouldn't
take the over here because I think it's gonna trend
under with four and a half. It's just such a
low number that if you get to a three to
two game and pull them, you're over. I don't love
the you get an empty net, you go down the
third period empty net, two to three empty nets in
(04:26):
a semi final game.
Speaker 5 (04:28):
I worry about the over there.
Speaker 4 (04:30):
I do think Northeastern has a style that will fare well,
largely because I think Boston College in that game absolutely
pummeled the Northeastern net and nothing went in. It was like,
I think twelve to three were the shots in the
third period and only one goal. Northeastern provides some value
if you're gonna take Maine you're gonna want to parlay
(04:51):
it with somewhere someone else along the way to improve
the odds, But I wouldn't do that here. I don't
think Maine's gonna be the right call to bet, even
though Maine very easily could be raising.
Speaker 5 (04:59):
The right after on Saturday. On off Friday round.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
Let's go to the ECAC.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
Their semi finals are on Friday up at Lake Placid.
The early game has Cornell, which swept Colgate last weekend,
a six versus three upset for the Big Red, against Quinnipiac,
who had an easy time with Brown. Besides Quinnipiac fans
being big proponents of the Bobcats winning that, Penn State
(05:27):
fans and Michigan fans got to be rooting for them too.
Cornell is plus one twenty four and Quinnipiac is a
minus one sixty. The over under in this one is
five and a half.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
Listen, Mike Chafers teams have done it for inter two
weeks in a row, kept his coaching career of going.
Why wouldn't you expect them to keep the push going
as long as they can. I know Quinnipiac should be
a favorite here, but this is not a very as
heavy a fan as you would expect for number one seed.
(06:03):
I think the oddsmakers understand this. This quint in Pia
team is good. It is not the national championship team good.
It's not shoulders and heads above the rest of these theses.
So I think this line is right. I would go
with Cornell.
Speaker 4 (06:20):
I love the bet on Cornell, but I don't necessarily
think Cornell is gonna win. But I think there's enough
value on Cornell to force to force you to pick them. Cornell,
don't forget before the season was the preseason favorite, defending
league champion.
Speaker 5 (06:33):
They won their way here, and they won their.
Speaker 4 (06:35):
Way here by being exceptionally good in the second half
of the season. They've They've been an incredible second half team,
winning eight odd games out of their twelve like last twelve.
They've just been a good team, and they have been
straight up smoking teams when they've been winning. The problem
with Cornell is that those teams that they've been smoking,
where they've been scoring five per game and allowing less
(06:57):
per one over the last month or so, have not
been top ranked teams. They've been teams like Yale, like Brown,
like those teams that are down the bottom of the league,
so Quinnipiac to me, even though Quinnipiac struggled against every
single one of.
Speaker 5 (07:11):
These teams this year.
Speaker 4 (07:12):
I don't like Cornell to win, but I do Cornell
as a hedge bet at plus one twenty four, and
I do not like the over this is going over
five and a half.
Speaker 5 (07:23):
These teams do not allow enough goals to have that happen,
not recently, not recently with Cornell.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
The other half of the bracket has Dartmouth, which went
on the road and swept Union last weekend. Against Clarkson.
It took three games for the Golden Knights to prevail
over Harvard. With the game three and overtime win. That
one has an over under a five and a half.
Dartmouth is plus one ten, Clarkson is minus one forty.
(07:52):
And we did talk a bit about Dartmouth being a
good dark worse in this tournament.
Speaker 1 (07:57):
Yeah, I do think Dartmouth as the course, but the
Clark's at edge of the They're playing.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
Well down the stretths. They got to the playoffs last week,
had a bump in the road, but gotta overtime. Game
three won the game.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
I could I can make I'm gonna make my case
for Clarkson, not that Dartmouth isn't good enough, but clarks
that I feel like they'll be prepared Dartmouth. This one
might catch them a little wide eyed in the being
a lady classes.
Speaker 3 (08:30):
I agree.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
I think Dartmouth is statistically one of the best pound
for pound teams at least as an overall, but there
are gaps and holes in those numbers. I think when
you look at the fact that they are a very
prolifically scoring, prolific scoring offense in a very good defense.
Speaker 5 (08:46):
Within those numbers, the goalies don't see a lot of shots.
Speaker 4 (08:49):
Save percentages are not great for Dartmouth in either goalie
Emmitt Crito or Roan Clark. Clarkson, on the other hand,
is the only team stat for stat that can go
pound for pound with Quinnipiac out of the four and
by that depth of scoring goaltending defense, Clarkson already had
(09:10):
its iron sharpens iron series with Harvard. Like the way
that they had to have forty odd shots in the
third game. I really like Clarkson. I really like Clarkson
and Quinnipiac to make it to the championship game, so
I would even risk even a parlay there on the
two of them. That said, Dartmouth statistically has been exceptionally hot.
(09:31):
They've also been a little inconsistent over the last month.
I would have liked Dartmouth maybe at plus one twenty
or a little bit worse odds than what they're getting,
but plus one ten, I just don't see the value
you as much. I also in this game, also like
the under. I don't think this one's going over five minutes.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
The NCCHC is having its final frozen face off in
Saint Paul. Next year.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
They'll be playing on the highest seed home ice, and
it's an interesting one. Fans of Penn State, Michigan, and
Quinnipiac are going to want the favorite teams, and I
don't think I should maybe say favorite, but the teams
that are already in the tournament, they should want them
to win. Arizona State and North Dakota have to win
(10:15):
to get into the NCAAs. The first game has Denver
in Arizona State. Arizona State is the higher seed, but
Denver is the favorite in this one, and also the
road team for last change purposes, six and a half
is the over.
Speaker 5 (10:30):
Under.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Denver is minus one seventy five and Arizona State has
won thirty five. Let's start with the over under. Arizona
State's had a lot of high scoring games lately, a lot,
and I was.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
Going to this long where I would have no problem
wanting to bet te over. Denver has not exactly been
shutting everybody down, so I think this game could get
to ten goal easily.
Speaker 3 (11:02):
I am going to say though, that.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
Arizona State, despite being the underdog here, I think that
they feel like the team that is destined to get
out of this one.
Speaker 3 (11:13):
They've played really well.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
Watched those two games last week and they had great
atmosphere inside mull and I think they'll have a good
piece of crowd portion up in Saint Paul, hopefully, but I.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
Just like them.
Speaker 1 (11:29):
I will say one thing. If Denver wins this game,
they win the championship.
Speaker 5 (11:35):
I honestly disagree.
Speaker 4 (11:38):
And I mean that in a sense that when I
look at how Denver got to this point, and I've
been saying Denver earlier in the season was flawed, and
you and I don't usually disagree on premises, but I
do think Denver is still a flawed team. And it's
hard to say that about a defending national champion who's
already locked in to the NCAA tournament field and is
likely going to get a pretty good draw along the way.
(12:01):
But I just the last month and a half playing
Saint Cloud, playing Colorado College five different times, playing Miami
like the.
Speaker 5 (12:10):
Iron for me in the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (12:11):
I always want an iron shopman's iron situation, and Arizona
State to me got it by playing a team that
we all liked at Minnesota debute, that we saw as
maybe a bit a bit of a I don't know,
underdog with some flash to them, even though there have
been high scoring games. I do think Arizona State is
the right call on the bet, but I don't think
(12:33):
Denver has enough of whatever it was last year, and
I hate comparing teams to get past whoever wins the next.
Speaker 5 (12:40):
One between North Dakota and Western Michigan.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Interestingly enough, if we think about Denver last year, they
were super hot in February and going into March, and
that's not as much the case this season. The other
half of the bracket, North Dakota is the underdog in
this game against Western Michigan. The Broncos are my two hundred.
The Fighting Hawks or plus one fifty four, also a
(13:04):
six and a half over under in this one.
Speaker 3 (13:07):
Yeah, I think the over is a little too high here.
Speaker 1 (13:10):
I'd be hammering under, although if North Dakota is going
to win it, I think that's how they're going to
win it.
Speaker 3 (13:17):
They're going to win it in the higher scoring game.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
I think Western Michigan, despite the fact that they've just
had a couple of highest scoring games, I think they
certainly can play a shutdown defense, get great goaltending from
whomever they choose to go with. So I like Western
Michigan here. I think they're getting me a good price
even at minus two hundred, but I do the under.
Speaker 5 (13:42):
I like the under two.
Speaker 4 (13:44):
I don't love the price point on Western Michigan at
minus two hundred. I really like the odds on North
Dakota at plus one fifty four. I think there's a
ton of value to be had on a team that's
playing desperate to get through. My opposite of what I
was saying about then, though, with Western Michigan. We had
Saint CTT State as a possible dark horse coming out
(14:04):
of the coming into this tournament, and Western dispatch them
pretty handily, and they look good and they look strong
doing it. But again, over the last month, the fact
that Western only lost in overtime to North Dakota and
went to overtime against Arizona State, even though they lost
that game to me overtime in the regular season, is
(14:26):
such a different beast that I discounted at this point.
But I really like just the way Western Michigan played
over the last month against good teams, against teams like
Omaha and Saint Cloud and all them.
Speaker 5 (14:36):
So to me Western at minus two hundred.
Speaker 4 (14:39):
It's a little tough on the price to take them,
but I like them to win. So I don't know
if that translates to bet it for Western or leave
it alone, or take the emotional hedge and go in
North Dakota even though I think they're going to lose.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
Well, Western Michigan is going to be in the tournament
no matter what, but a good showing this weekend should
give them a move into the top four. It's only
three one thousands of a point difference in the RPI
against Idle Minnesota, and if we see a good showing
from Western Michigan, they got something to play for besides
(15:15):
a title. With that, we're going to take a break,
and we'll come back with the three conferences with that,
we'll take a break, and we'll come back with the
three conferences that already have their final game scheduled, and
the well, everybody else's got them scheduled, they just don't
know who's going to be in them. We'll come back
with the three leagues that have the final game matchup
(15:38):
all set when we return. This episode is sponsored by
the NCAA Men's E one Frozen Fourth April tenth and
twelfth in Saint Louis.
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The NCAA Men's Frozen four, the pinnacle of men's collegiate
ice hawk Any.
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Question, Professor, NCAA Men's Hockey is back.
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Are we ready? Be prepared to hype yours for all
three periods, bring glory home to your camps.
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Oh you're ready.
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It's Frozen four.
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Tome the NCAAA Men's Frozen Pool April tenth and twelfth,
twenty twenty five and Saint Louis.
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Buy your seats today at NCAAA dot com.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
So that's frozen fool. We're back with us cocho edge.
Speaker 2 (16:20):
Depending on which game goes longer on Friday Night, either
Hockey East or the CCHA will crown a champion first
the CCHA. It's eight o'clock start Central time. I think
unless they go into a lot of overtime, Hockey East
will be done first. But at Saint Thomas versus Minnesota State,
(16:40):
four and a half is the over under. Saint Thomas
is the underdog at plus one eighty and Minnesota State
is the favorite at minus two thirty eight. You want
to win a league title. For Saint Thomas, that's all
you're playing for. And for Minnesota State you're already in
the tournament. I don't know how much of an effect
that's going to have on the game, but those are
(17:02):
the numbers the odds makers will put together.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
I will say that I think that Saint Thomas has
a really good shot here for no other reason than
that this is its for them.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
They know how good of a team they are.
Speaker 1 (17:16):
They want to get a trophy just to have something
to show up for this season because this has been
a fantastic year of Saint Thomas.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
They can't go to the nc Donblaze. But yeah, I
just like them there.
Speaker 1 (17:28):
I think emotionally, I think I like the emotional favorite
and the price that they get unbelievable price.
Speaker 5 (17:33):
I agree. Look, I didn't think St.
Speaker 4 (17:35):
Thomas was going to get here, and I didn't think
Saint Thomas was going to be at this point. I
thought it was going to be Bowling Green that was
going to be playing for a chance to play at
home in Toledo.
Speaker 5 (17:46):
But since St.
Speaker 4 (17:47):
Thomas is here, I love a good bit of chaos,
and there is no rule that has made less sense
to me than the reclassification rule, especially over the last
couple of years, actually post COVID with some of the
teams I know I mentioned last week with basketball, things
like Bell Army, teams like that that made the basketball
(18:09):
made their conference tournament or won their conference tournament, and
then you had semi finalists that were making the NCAA
tournament because of the way the rules work. Let's see
if say Thomas can do this, Plus one eighty is
a great price.
Speaker 5 (18:23):
I honestly like the under with the value at four
and a half.
Speaker 4 (18:27):
I know that's a crazy stupid thing of me to say,
but if I don't want try, yeah.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
Yeah, just I don't disagree.
Speaker 4 (18:35):
I think at plus one ten, I think you're getting
a little bit of value made for a three to
one type of game. But again, three to two, a
couple of empty netters in there. You're over so like
it if this wasn't the case. But either way, if
I'm taking the money line, let's go, say, Thomas, like
I said, let's see if they can see Let's see
if they can hang out, get a trophy and mess
this whole thing up for everybody.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
Let's take a look at Atlantic Hockey America. That lineup
is set. Holy Cross, the regular season champion, will host
in Worcester against Bentley over under his four and a
half and Bentley is the underdog at plus one thirty five.
Fully Cross the favorite at minus one seventy five. And
(19:16):
let me just say, I understand where they're getting the
over under from. But if you look at the scores
and the series leading up to this, there were a
lot of goals scored in those games. Bentley had six
goals in each game, there was a six goal win
for holy Cross, five goals in overtime. All of those
(19:38):
went over. I'm just throwing that in there. I'll let
you guys talk about over under and who you're going with.
And I'm sure we have no doubts for Dan, but
Jim am I right on the over under there or
are we going to see stellar performances from the goaltenders.
Speaker 3 (19:54):
They're certainly possible. Yeah, I'm surprised that maybe.
Speaker 1 (19:59):
I guess five is DraftKings does not like to go
to the flat point because of the push, so they
never go to They were last few seasons, but this
year they have been exclusively six point five, five point five,
four point five.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
I jail if this was five, it would be a
perfect number. I had four point five a little low.
You're getting a tiny bit of value it is. It
is a low number. I think one of the most
important things here is which team is going to play
their game. I think holy Cross can score.
Speaker 1 (20:32):
They can get going, definitely scoring the power play. But
Bentley has right now the hottest goal league maybe in
the country. I think that's fair to say, even though
he wasn't a finalist for the Richter Reward. I think
you get an edge right there. This is a tough
one to pick here. I go with the whole team
holy Cross. They felt like a team of destiny. But
(20:54):
I don't have a really good feel for this one
either way.
Speaker 4 (20:59):
Is that over under on cups of coffee I'm probably
gonna drink on Saturday morning, in which case am or
the over.
Speaker 5 (21:05):
This could be a six cup of copy day for
me with.
Speaker 4 (21:08):
The once the nerves get going, which is always a
good idea because I'll be good and jittery by two
o'clock in the afternoon.
Speaker 3 (21:15):
Don't caffeine overdoses help calm your nerves. Absolutely, absolutely, yeah,
we're not.
Speaker 4 (21:22):
I don't think anyone's gonna ask me who I think
is gonna win this one and expect any other of
a response. Here's my thing, though I know this is
the one versus the three, my answer to this game
is that I really and truly believe that these were
the two best teams in Atlanta cocky all year. I
know Sacred Heart finished second, but for my money, throughout
(21:43):
the year, I know the as working with Bentley, I
kept the side eye on Holy Cross the entire year
because I felt like those were the two best teams
head to head. This is a tremendous matchup. I think
this is gonna be a brutally tough game to bet
and pick if you're looking at it. But I think
this is going to be just a fantastic hockey game
(22:05):
in an arena that I think also does give Holy
Cross a bit of an edge because it's small, it's cramped.
Speaker 5 (22:10):
It's not like playing at Bentley, which is a little.
Speaker 4 (22:12):
More spacious and cozy, but the Heart Center you get
really on top of everything. I realized that last week,
you're really going to make me say who I think
is gonna win it?
Speaker 5 (22:22):
Though I'm like, that's just a crul punishment.
Speaker 3 (22:26):
Well you think, oh, you say you think holy Cross
is going to win it? Is what you're saying. Here's
the tri painted.
Speaker 4 (22:32):
My house has been painted half black and half blue
for about a month.
Speaker 5 (22:37):
Go with that.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
Yeah, and I can make arguments for both teams. I
think of all the league championships, this may be the
one that is the hardest to pick, and that might
be the closest. I won't use the overtime word. I
just did it, damn Probably. Yeah, thanks appreciate that. The
long awaited rematch of the two thousand and six Atlantic
(23:01):
Hockey Association Championship when holy Cross went on the next
weekend to upset Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (23:09):
I'll tell you, guys, as I was writing bracketology this week,
I easily could have a holy Cross with Minnesota in Fargo.
And the only reason I didn't is because in this
week's pair wise, Minnesota is a four seed.
Speaker 3 (23:25):
It's Minnesota.
Speaker 5 (23:27):
It won't work.
Speaker 3 (23:28):
But the weird maneuverings that had.
Speaker 1 (23:32):
To be made this week if you read it, and
I ended up putting them with Michigan State, but they
the only two teams that Atlanta Cockey could currently face
is have the Big Ten team.
Speaker 3 (23:45):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (23:46):
It would really bring back a lot of two thousand
and six memories if those two teams man check in
the first round.
Speaker 2 (23:54):
The last one on our list is the Big Ten
and it's Ohio State and Michigan State. They'll be playing
that at one arena in East Lansing, and in that
one the over under is five and a half and
the underdog, of course is Ohio State at plus one
eighty Michigan State at minus two thirty eight. Boy, I
(24:18):
I think for sure it makes sense that Michigan State
is the favorite. But boy, if you're asking me, and
I am asking me, plus one eighty and the way
Ohio State has been playing, that sounds like a good
value to me right there.
Speaker 5 (24:31):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
I keep using this team of destiny term, but that
there's probably no team that feels more like it than
Ohio State at anymore. Down and out two weeks ago
against Wisconsin Wisconsin, this is an empty net. Ohio State
comes down, scores ties the game, wins the game in overtime,
wins another game in overtime last weekend when General wilk
(24:54):
fuck Fontaine scores and here they are on the finals.
They do feel it the team of destiny. If I
was betting it, I would bet at Ohio State. If
you're asking me to pick who's gonna win, I'd take
the Michigan State.
Speaker 5 (25:08):
Yeah, I'm in the same boat.
Speaker 4 (25:10):
I think there is a I think I had Ohio
State is my dark horse. So that's too dark horse,
that's too Reuben dark horse is still alive in the
in their respective conference tournaments. But I'll tell you what
Ohio State a plus one eighty. I don't know that
Ohio State's gonna win this game. I think Michigan State
is just too strong. But I will say this plus
(25:30):
one eighty gives me enough to almost say that if
you don't want to bet Northeastern and this is a
pizza bet, come to life.
Speaker 5 (25:37):
This is my my pizza bet.
Speaker 4 (25:41):
I would order so much pizza when Ohio State wins
the Big Ten that it would be I'd be swimming
in pasta sauce, right, Marinara sauce. But this is a
great game. It's gonna be a phenomenal game. I don't
know if I like the over or the under. I'll
just say the over because it's the Big ten, and
I always say the over on the Big ten. I
don't know that I love it, but that's five and
have a well placed number. But I think this is
(26:02):
going to be probably the best played game, maybe not
the most competitive. We said that about Atlanta hockey, but
this is going to be just a phenomenal hockey.
Speaker 2 (26:10):
If you are going to bet Michigan State, get a
white pizza with broccoli so that the colors are okay.
I think it's going to be some great hockey this weekend, obviously,
and that's what we're looking at. So hopefully you'll have
some fun with the games, whether you bet on it
or not, and hopefully we gave you some illumination on it.
This episode has been sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division
(26:32):
One Frozen Fourth, April tenth and twelfth in Saint Louis, Missouri.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
Gets you tickets now at.
Speaker 2 (26:37):
NCAA dot com, Slash Frozen four for Jim Connolly, for
Dan Rubin. I'm ed Trefsker and this has been usccho
edge