January 17, 2025 • 27 mins
USCHO Edge hosts Jim Connelly (@jimmyconnelly), Dan Rubin (@DanRubin12) and Ed Trefzger (@EdTrefzger) look at money lines and over/under for six college games on January 17, 2025:
- Providence +160 @ Boston College -210; over/under 5.5
- UConn +200 @ Maine -270; o/u 5.5
- Michigan State -110 @ Michigan -120; o/u 6.5
- Western Michigan -115 @ North Dakota -115; o/u 6.5
- Arizona State +110 @ St. Cloud -140; o/u 5.5
- Notre Dame +240 @ Minnesota -330; o/u 5.5 (our "pizza money" game)
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to usccho Edge for Friday, January seventeenth.
Speaker 3 (00:17):
Twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
I'm Ed Tretchker alongside Jim Connolly and Dan Rubin back
for some more games. We're in the hot and heavy
part of the season and some great matchups. First one
on our list is Providence at Boston College. DC is
minus two ten, the Friars are plus one sixty, and
the over under on this one is five and a half.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
I like this line well set line. I would have
had DC as a definite favorite being at home, but
I think there's some value on Providence at plus one sixty.
Friars have played really well and consistent all year. There
have been very few down nights for this Providence team,
(01:02):
so you're trying to find a way to make money.
If it's Boston College that you want to put a
bet on, you need to find a way to get
better odds, so you're talking to Parlay. Then you're asking
for a couple of legs to come through. So I
wouldn't bet Boston College, but if you have any inclination
toward Providence, I think they're a great bet. Their lost
(01:24):
loss actually came against Boston College. At home all the
way back on November nineteenth. Since then, they're perfect. Just
trying to count up, they're eight and oh since that time.
That's pretty impressive. So I look at this Providence team
right now as one that has the potential to go
(01:45):
into Kelly Rink and pull off the upset. Boston College
certainly should be a favorite in this game, but there's
no value at this number. I'm going to dance to dance.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
There's some rain drops on the one because I'm employed
at times by Boston College, so I'm not gonna I'm
not going to offer what I think the gambling bet
maybe should be, so I'll pull the Kirk curve street.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
Here's what I think is happening in this game.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
Here's what I'll say about this particular matchup, and where
this kind of steps in is the BC at home
given what BC has done over the larger body of work.
Is where you would see numbers start to tilt, because,
like I was saying in the first broadcast of our thing,
you can sometimes use the odds just as an idea
(02:32):
to level set where your team is, even if you're
not gambling, which, like I said, I won't discuss who
I would pick in this game, and necessarily, like we said,
we've never bet on college hockey on this podcast, So
what we are kind of saying in this is that
when you look at this, you're seeing the Providence is
(02:52):
maybe a hair behind Boston College. And from a matchup standpoint,
I think Providence in this game is a dynamic team
that can very easily win this game. And I would
even venture that I think Providence College is playing better
hockey right now. That's part of the reason why I
was the one voter who had Providence at number one
in the country in my poll. When I line up
(03:15):
where I vote these teams, I think last week I
might have had Providence at three or four, and I
put Providence at number one this year because Boston College lost.
I think Minnesota Memory Service right lost Michigan State. I
didn't love what happened against the with Penn State with
the tie shootout aside. I didn't love that series for
Michigan State with how it ended out and Providence, even
(03:38):
though Providence had not played over the weekend, they were
coming off the Tuesday midweek game. The Mayor's Cup went
over Brown, I looked at him like, they're the best
team in the country right now. That doesn't mean I
think they're going to be the best team in the
country at the end, but their best right now, and
so that's going to be a great matchup for BCS,
particularly at home. I think Providence is very deep, and
I think that Nate Lyman's style is a is a
(04:02):
very good style to bring into against the BC team.
But flip side, Boston College just played a gay a weekend.
Providence hasn't played since that Brown game, which is what
a ten day break or so not even maybe a
little bit more not knowing what the math is on it.
And BC has played games, They've played three of them,
(04:22):
and they've gotten progressively better as.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Each game has been played.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
How much was that loss a week ago Friday to
Merrimack where the Warriors came back from five or came
back from a to nothing deficit to win five to two.
How much has that affected Boston College, who won the
next night. How much has that maybe given them a
little bit of a wake up call?
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Maybe a little, but I'm not sure enough. I've watched
tape from that game, watched tape from Saturday's game, and
then i watched a little bit from Tuesday when they
had a three to one winner home over Harvard. Things
aren't clicking the way they were before the break. In Listen,
they were off for more than a month. That's a
(05:08):
long time. Then you had six players that win did
something incredible winning a gold medal, but their emotions now
are probably a little bit out of whack. I think
this team just has to get back to the identity
it had in early November when it was probably playing
its best hockey of the year, and it should straighten
(05:31):
out pretty quick. Obviously, Providence is a great opponent this
weekend and then next weekend the BCBU home and home series.
We're going to find out where BC is very quickly here.
But I think that there probably was a little bit
of a wake up and now they just have to
continue to get the smelling salts in them.
Speaker 4 (05:50):
The one thing that I'll counter with is that with
the Harvard game was that the defense we expect BC
to be in the wake up on the offensive side.
And this was something that I know I've talked about
a couple of times with a couple of different people,
and this was convincing me on BC side was that
Harvard game.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
BC didn't allow a ton of shots, and I.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
Know Harvard brought it like Harvard was playing much better,
and Harvard is a better team, then the record might
indicate they're around five hundred or so, a little under
five hundred. So BC absorbed the blows against Harvard. And
if you can hold a team to twenty five shots
or under, and I know it's gonna be very difficult
against Providence versus Harvard, you're doing it with a goaltender
(06:32):
and Jacob Fowler who can.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Win you that game with that little amount of shots.
Speaker 4 (06:36):
So I think we're looking at BC and wondering when
the offense maybe start clicking a little bit better. But
to me, it's more about what happened in the back
after the Merrimack. That Merrimac loss, that's been an indicator
of things to come.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
Yukhan is at Maine. The Huskies have been hot is late.
They are plus two hundred underdogs. Maine at home is
minus two seven over under on this one is a
five point five.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Yeah, this is a great timing for this series to happen.
If this was November when I didn't feel like Yukon
was playing their best hockey and Maine was clicking, I
wouldn't even consider this to be a close series. But
right now, I feel like this Yukon team since they've
come back. They beat Alaska, they went at Harvard, they
(07:25):
sweep New Hampshire home and home. Their only loss of
four to three lost to Wisconsin in the finals of
the Quick Trip Tournament. This team is playing right now,
and obviously Maine is two. They've had two really tough
series back to back weekends. Number one, I'm sorry, the
defending national champion Denver, which they split with, and then
(07:48):
they went on the road and played number eight UMass Lowell.
They swept them on the road, allowing just two goals
on the weekend. So I feel like both of these
teams are playing really well. Thus, if I always go
back to value, I don't know that I believe Yukon
can win. But there's a lot of value at plus
two hundred on Yukon Main, no value at minus two seventy.
(08:12):
And I get it. They're really good at home and
they should have this line, should be this spread because
of the fact this game's in our no, but there's
just no value on Main.
Speaker 4 (08:25):
Two thoughts one has revd the engine on the ice
bus Baby with Yukon get the ice bus going. And
two is that's a steaky tough road trip U NH
to Yukon for home at home, that's all. That's a
further distance then I think I bargain for Terham is
what now were in forty minutes from Boston or so
(08:46):
you're going a little bit further.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
You are going north south, but straight north south.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
But that's a steaky tough road trip to come away
with a home and home with a sweep. And so
they get the win at home on Friday, and then
to win a win on the road on Friday rather
and then win home on Saturday is a credit to
what Yukon has started to do. It was a tough
game on Saturday. So I like the value a lot
on Yukon here, and I like Yukon in general. I
(09:11):
think that there's a team that's going to make some
noise and I like what coach Kavanaugh does with Connecticut.
The over under for me at five and a half,
I don't love five and a half as an over
under in general, like I just don't.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
I don't love numbers that are that low.
Speaker 4 (09:29):
But as the further we go into the season, the
more that's a well placed number, so I don't have
an opinion on it. I could see this game going
three to two. I could see this game going two
to one. I could see this game going five to one.
That's the anything's on the table.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
At this point.
Speaker 4 (09:46):
I don't know if I touch the over under, but
I like the value on Yukon.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
Yeah. I see why five point five was the number. Though,
when you look last weekend, neither team allowed more neither
team totaled more than five goals in a game. Yes,
you put them together. They're both playing well. These are
probably the teams of the matchup to the last weekend.
These are the better teams, So you should bump it
up in five point five, perfect number to stay away from.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
You probably made fans of about five other leagues laugh
at the idea of one hundred and forty mile road trip.
Speaker 4 (10:19):
Being sneaky baby, long listen, I think what is it?
I think I said something the other day which was
my parents of ninety miles from me, and it was
one of those that I was like, should I bring
the my kid? Ou didn't have school, and I was like,
should I bring it down? Should I bring it to
my parents? I was like, no, I really don't want
to make the ride. It was ninety miles. I could
have made it. I yeah, I'm not ninety mile. That's
(10:43):
a long road trip. You got across three states. If
possibly bring a passport to go to New Hampshire, Oh
the avenue.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
I'm thinking about my four hour road trip today. Anyway,
Let's let's go to Michigan State at Michigan and I
gotta honestly say this one prized me. Michigan State is
minus one ten. Michigan is a slight home favorite at
minus one twenty. What didn't surprise me was six and
a half for the over under.
Speaker 3 (11:10):
Pick them. That's all they're telling us is this is
a pick them favorite Michigans lately because they're on home ice. Yeah,
this is one throw it in one of your wages
somewhere if you want to make a parlay, this is
a good one to maybe get some value out of
parlay if you feel one way or the other. Both
these teams are playing well right now, and I guess
(11:33):
maybe we should have thought that Michigan would be a
home dog in this one. But this is a throw
at the records. These teams play hard for each other,
when they're playing against one another, and you're right at
goals are going to be scored. I see this one.
This six and a half is a good number because
I think that seven, eight, nine are all possible. Six
(11:55):
is right there in the mix. I don't see five, four, three,
two or one coming into this one. I think if
I had to pick this one, I'm going Michigan State
Andy Over. I could be swayed anyway with this matchup.
Is there a is there?
Speaker 4 (12:12):
We don't get prop bets usually because I'd say whatever
it is, hamm of the over and penalties.
Speaker 3 (12:16):
Yeah, no, no prop bets.
Speaker 4 (12:19):
One of these games is going to be nasty, knock
them down.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
I don't even want to go back on what happened
last year.
Speaker 4 (12:27):
But one of these is just going to be one
of those one of those games that I think is
relatively high scoring, but the goaltenders play well. There's a
lot of penalties, but the both penalty kill and power
play do really well against each other. Probably a couple
of power play goals against a really strong penalty kill.
I think this is going to be just and it's
(12:49):
going to come down to the lire and so I
don't love the idea of picking either team in this
unless you really do feel passionately about them. The one
thing that I will say, but I think this kind
of robs value in this bet is Michigan State, dating
back to the GLI, which is at the back around
Christmas time, beating Northern Michigan too nothing was not what
(13:11):
I would have thought.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
I would have thought that to be higher.
Speaker 4 (13:14):
Get taken overtime against Wisconsin at home, and you lose
in the.
Speaker 3 (13:17):
Shootout against Penn State.
Speaker 4 (13:19):
To me, you've gone from winning regulation one game in
the weekend, win in overtime, now a tie in a
shootout loss. And this was something I was talking about earlier,
which is I don't like where Michigan State has been
trending in one game of the two this weekend.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
Over a weekend, I.
Speaker 4 (13:35):
Don't necessarily think they're going to sweep this weekend, and
that's where I give Michigan an edge. But Michigan has
no value at minus one twenty at home.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Because Michigan State is still the better team.
Speaker 4 (13:49):
Statistically, throw everything out the window and throw a dart
unless you really hate.
Speaker 3 (13:54):
One of the other schools, in which case do what
you gotta do.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Jim We've talked about some games like this getting skewed
by the number of bets for one team or another.
Is there possibly a lot of Michigan support skewing.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
This would be certainly. I didn't look at this line
when it opened, so I don't know if it's moved,
but there could have. The bookmaker itself could easily say, Hey,
we get a lot more traffic on Michigan than we
do on Michigan State in any sport, so let's make
(14:29):
sure that we're going to pump Michigan's number a little bit.
So we're going to that's where we get the minus
one twenty. I honestly thought this would have been by
minus one forty Michigan State minus plus one ten Michigan.
That's where I would have probably imagined this line was set.
But if you're going to take a lot of liability
to Michigan at the end of the day, this game
(14:51):
is a real toss up. I wasn't joking when I
said pick them. So if you could get a line
like that out there, yeah, So yeah, the bookmaker itself
likely moved this line right from the start.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
And Dan I wrote down prop bet on Pims myself
probably a few two's for hitting after the whistle and
maybe the ten or two in there too.
Speaker 4 (15:20):
You know what it was funny about last year when
that melee broke out in the third period, was that
Michigan was pumbling, was absolutely pummeling Michigan State in that game.
And I think a final might have been like was
that I might have been a snowman. It wasn't that
nake old game. I think it was an eight to
one or seven to one or six to one or
one of those, and then you know what, we might
(15:44):
lose this game, but we'll win this one in the
parking lot afterwards. But that shows you that Michigan last
year there was a much larger disparity at the time,
and Michigan dropped what eight goals on Michigan State whatever
it was, and then.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
Had a turnaround. And that was on the road. That
was a month.
Speaker 4 (16:03):
So again, throw everything out the window, and except the foil?
Speaker 3 (16:08):
Are we putting on the foil? This weekend? It was
seven to one, was the thank you? It was the
final month. But the next night Michigan State turned it
around a seven to five win. These two teams. That's
why I say throw out the records. You really have to.
By the way, the number of penalty minutes in that
game was one.
Speaker 4 (16:27):
Wow, also known as one team total in the two
thousand and one Atlantic Hockey Max season.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
We're gonna take a break and when we come back,
there are a couple of games in the NCCHD plus
our pizza money bet when uscho Edge continues back with
usccho Edge. Western Michigan is at North Dakota in that
one even money a minus one fifteen, So the fifteen
(16:54):
percent for the house over under a six and a half.
Speaker 3 (16:57):
I'm gonna just stand on my platform again. I hate
the fifteen percent of the house. Minus one ten was
the number I remember when the days with minus one
oh five. Sorry, let's get into this one though. This
is a great series. I think if it's being played
out Western they're a slight favorite. But the fact that
it's at North Dakota, this will be an absolute true
(17:18):
right down the middle. Split it minus one fifteen each way,
pick them over under a six and a half. Can't
touch the under there. I know that I I Western
in the over here and there's no value that I'm
vetting here. This is a straight line on both teams,
So I just like Western.
Speaker 4 (17:40):
See I like North Dakota here and for similar reasons.
And I don't know that we're going to get a
pick them type atmosphere or pick them type game on
North Dakota at home.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
For a lot of games the rest of the season.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
So I think that injects just enough value to shade
onto North Dakota. I do the over here regards list,
but I look at the teams that North Dakota has
played at home this year, even dating back to when
they played Boston University at the beginning of the year.
Speaker 3 (18:07):
This is just not enough for.
Speaker 4 (18:11):
If I'm trying to think of the way to describe this,
I think North Dakota probably should have been closer to
minus one thirty five at home. So that's where I'm
saying it's injecting the value. Western Michigan is still a
number fourteen in the country, So do with that, let
you will, whoop a coin.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
North Dakota has to start thinking a little bit more
desperately for the postseason. They're sitting right now at twentieth
in the pair. Wise, it's really nineteenth because Wisconsin is
three games below five hundred and would not be eligible.
But the North Dakota is basically five, six, seven places
away from the bubble, depending on how things shake out.
(18:50):
They've got to start winning some games or win the
NCCHC to make the postseason at this point. So that's
got to be playing on them too.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
It should be should be desperation time. You're almost in February,
That's what we have to think about. You're almost in February.
One of those things that you have to really consider.
I think that desperate hockey is sometimes the best hockey
you play in a given season. We'll see where North
Dakota comes out this weekend. I still like Western.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
Let's look at Arizona State at Saint Cloud. It's been
a good season for the Sun Devils. They are a
slight underdog at plus one ten. Saint Cloud State is
a minus one forty five and a half is the
over under. Saint Cloud has been in a little bit
of a skid lately, and Arizona State is putting together
(19:42):
a very good season.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
Yeah. I want to just look at the last few
months for Arizona stake. Go back to mid November. They
lost a game against Omaha, then they beat them the
next night. They then swept Denver. They swept a loose,
they swept an exhibition series against the national team development program.
They win their OW tournament, They beat North Dakota at home,
(20:04):
and then they lose in overtime the next night, still
taking four out of six points out of that series.
This is this is a team that I still don't
think is getting enough respect right now. I think that
there's plenty more you give, and the fact that they
were technically an underdog at plus one to ten. I
get it there on the road, but Saint Cloud's not
(20:26):
exactly knocking them down right now. I feel like Saint
Cloud has been the one team that's been the least
consistent of late swept by Duluth last weekend, they beat
Saint Thomas in a single game. They were even swept
by North Dkota before the break. I'm they'll have Brett
Larson back. He was probably back behind the bench last
(20:50):
weekend too, but that didn't seem to be a big impact.
So I'm not hot on this Saint Cloud State team,
even at home. So this one feels like an easy
pick of Arizona State, and I just think the line
is off here.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
Saint Claud's still good at home though, seven and three
at home and not the weather plays into this, but
the only thing that would prevent me from really looking
at Arizona State given all of that, and this is
what I was talking about, what we were talking about the
reverse last week when I think North Dakota was going
out to Arizona State and we were like, yeah, you're
gonna get out there and it's gonna be fifty five,
(21:25):
sixty five degrees or whatever it was seventy degrees and
it's gonna be nice, beautiful.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
You're you're taking in the golf shirts and short sleeves.
Speaker 4 (21:34):
You know, it's gonna be like Saturday when Arizona State
has to spend most of the day in the hotel
in Saint Cloud.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
Five. It's gonna be five. That's it.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
Five, and it's gonna be eleven below during the night.
Speaker 3 (21:47):
So I don't know.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
Players, come on, they're hockey players. I understand that. But yeah, look,
I have you notorious cold weather person. I love cold weather.
It's five. That's cold. I don't care who you are.
And when you step out, and like I said, you're
in a building.
Speaker 4 (22:05):
At least you're in a climate controlled building, but you're
gonna be a little miserable during the day. So I
don't know what that's gonna do to Friday's game.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
But at least it's but at least.
Speaker 4 (22:15):
Given everything, these are the things that run through my
head that hey, maybe it's not the best bet on
Arizona State.
Speaker 3 (22:20):
They're going to say, say, Cloud's good at home. I
just look through the roster.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
They've got maybe five players from southern climbs the rest
New York, Minnesota, Ontario, Massachusetts. These are cold weather kids.
It's gonna be like going home. We don't get five
up here. We get we do now, we just can't. Yeah,
we just tore it. Never mind, never mind, you know,
I throw that out the window. Yeah, I was trying
(22:45):
to find something for some Clouds.
Speaker 3 (22:46):
You're good. What's the vacation of Dan Rubin? Put out
another sweater? Dan? How don't even take this from you.
That's We'll send you a nice insulated took. I'mbout twenty
five anymore. I got older, my blood got ditter.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
All right, We've had enough of our jabs at Dan
for one podcast, maybe for three podcasts. But let's go
to our pizza money game. And again, this is not
any disrespect of the teams. This is talking about money
lines that are very wide. And this game is Notre
Dame at Minnesota, and in this one, Notre Dame is
(23:27):
a plus two forty. Minnesota at home is a minus
three thirty five and a half is the over under.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
I'm trying to reason why Notre Dame. Why can Notre
Dame win this game. Yeah, They've already played Minnesota twice,
they lost six three and five three. Now they're going
on the road to play Minnesota at Mariucci. I'm just
(23:55):
trying to figure out a reason for why, because it
doesn't feel like it should be a plus two forty
and it doesn't feel like Minnesota should be minus three thirty. Yes,
they're good. Notre Dame's not horrendous though. They just split
with Ohio State. They can go back. They had played
(24:18):
Michigan State really tough, took them to overtime. I have
plenty of reasons to believe that they swept Michigan before
the break. I have plenty of reason to believe that
Notre Dame could get this done. Is this a pizza
money back for me? Yeah? This is one that if
I had the twenty dollars, I would put it on
(24:40):
and this one makes sense. I like it, you know
what I like. There's gonna be good vibes at Notre
Dame this weekend. And I know that they're at Minnesota.
Speaker 4 (24:51):
What a but the vibes around Notre Dame that should
exist because this is a better team than I think
the the record is specifically dating back to the Friendship
for like you said, or before the Friendship four. There
was a span when Notre Dame was playing very poor hockey,
right we taught it was around November, I think it was.
(25:11):
We were talking about them against Wisconsin and they came out
of the Wisconsin weekend. It was a split. No one
really grabbed good vibes. November didn't go well with some
of the They played better, but they didn't win games.
And then they came out and they even though Notre
Dame is just not there in terms of its record
(25:32):
per se, they're just playing better.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
And to me, that is a lot of what I
am liking in terms of throwing pizza money down.
Speaker 4 (25:46):
This is a team that's going to get a lot hotter,
and like I said, it's it's a good pizza money bet.
It's one of those you know what I like, what
they did against Michigan. I like what they did against
Penn State, particularly at at Wrigley. Go for it, throw
one topping down I and then you know what, if
(26:08):
you win that one, roll it into the football game
on Monday.
Speaker 2 (26:12):
The previous two games is six to three and a
five to three total nine goals and eight goals.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
Do you take the over in this one with a
five and a half, yes, yes, yes, yeah. I don't
think you have a choice. Even if you don't really
betting the over under, that's a safe bet. That's actually
a really nice little parlay. If you like Notre Dame
plus the over, that's not the worst bet. Although I
feel like if Notre Dame is gonna win, it's probably
(26:40):
gonna be a three to one game, So maybe I'm
not betting Notre Dame plus the over. That that makes
sense to me.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
That seems to be the style of Notre Dame over
the past several seasons.
Speaker 3 (26:51):
Yeah, if they're playing winning hockey, their defense is good.
Speaker 4 (26:55):
I think you take our pizza money and and pair it,
you know what, go wild, pair it with the Hampshire
and get a supreme. Two of them win, get a supreme.
Those are the two longest odds I think on the weekend. Yes, yeah,
get those. And then you're swimming at pizza. I don't
want to picture that picture Dan Ruben swimming in pizza.
(27:17):
And since it's Notre Dame, and I know Notre Dame
has a huge presence in Chicago, it's got to be
a deep dish.
Speaker 3 (27:23):
Go for deep dish.
Speaker 2 (27:24):
Maybe the South Side cracker crust, Yeah, much better.
Speaker 3 (27:30):
Whatever you do, don't get it.
Speaker 4 (27:32):
If you're gonna do your pizza bet By the way,
on Notre Dame cannot.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
Be a New York pie.
Speaker 4 (27:36):
It cannot be traditional because you're in the Midwest at
that point. You've got to like drown in your pizza
at that point. But you can drown in a deep dish.
Speaker 3 (27:44):
That's kay. Yes, well that's rapid there.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
For Jim Connolly, for Dan Rubin, I'm ed Trevsker and
this has been us cho edg
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to usccho Edge for Friday, January seventeenth.
Speaker 3 (00:17):
Twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
I'm Ed Tretchker alongside Jim Connolly and Dan Rubin back
for some more games. We're in the hot and heavy
part of the season and some great matchups. First one
on our list is Providence at Boston College. DC is
minus two ten, the Friars are plus one sixty, and
the over under on this one is five and a half.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
I like this line well set line. I would have
had DC as a definite favorite being at home, but
I think there's some value on Providence at plus one sixty.
Friars have played really well and consistent all year. There
have been very few down nights for this Providence team,
(01:02):
so you're trying to find a way to make money.
If it's Boston College that you want to put a
bet on, you need to find a way to get
better odds, so you're talking to Parlay. Then you're asking
for a couple of legs to come through. So I
wouldn't bet Boston College, but if you have any inclination
toward Providence, I think they're a great bet. Their lost
(01:24):
loss actually came against Boston College. At home all the
way back on November nineteenth. Since then, they're perfect. Just
trying to count up, they're eight and oh since that time.
That's pretty impressive. So I look at this Providence team
right now as one that has the potential to go
(01:45):
into Kelly Rink and pull off the upset. Boston College
certainly should be a favorite in this game, but there's
no value at this number. I'm going to dance to dance.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
There's some rain drops on the one because I'm employed
at times by Boston College, so I'm not gonna I'm
not going to offer what I think the gambling bet
maybe should be, so I'll pull the Kirk curve street.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
Here's what I think is happening in this game.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
Here's what I'll say about this particular matchup, and where
this kind of steps in is the BC at home
given what BC has done over the larger body of work.
Is where you would see numbers start to tilt, because,
like I was saying in the first broadcast of our thing,
you can sometimes use the odds just as an idea
(02:32):
to level set where your team is, even if you're
not gambling, which, like I said, I won't discuss who
I would pick in this game, and necessarily, like we said,
we've never bet on college hockey on this podcast, So
what we are kind of saying in this is that
when you look at this, you're seeing the Providence is
(02:52):
maybe a hair behind Boston College. And from a matchup standpoint,
I think Providence in this game is a dynamic team
that can very easily win this game. And I would
even venture that I think Providence College is playing better
hockey right now. That's part of the reason why I
was the one voter who had Providence at number one
in the country in my poll. When I line up
(03:15):
where I vote these teams, I think last week I
might have had Providence at three or four, and I
put Providence at number one this year because Boston College lost.
I think Minnesota Memory Service right lost Michigan State. I
didn't love what happened against the with Penn State with
the tie shootout aside. I didn't love that series for
Michigan State with how it ended out and Providence, even
(03:38):
though Providence had not played over the weekend, they were
coming off the Tuesday midweek game. The Mayor's Cup went
over Brown, I looked at him like, they're the best
team in the country right now. That doesn't mean I
think they're going to be the best team in the
country at the end, but their best right now, and
so that's going to be a great matchup for BCS,
particularly at home. I think Providence is very deep, and
I think that Nate Lyman's style is a is a
(04:02):
very good style to bring into against the BC team.
But flip side, Boston College just played a gay a weekend.
Providence hasn't played since that Brown game, which is what
a ten day break or so not even maybe a
little bit more not knowing what the math is on it.
And BC has played games, They've played three of them,
(04:22):
and they've gotten progressively better as.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Each game has been played.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
How much was that loss a week ago Friday to
Merrimack where the Warriors came back from five or came
back from a to nothing deficit to win five to two.
How much has that affected Boston College, who won the
next night. How much has that maybe given them a
little bit of a wake up call?
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Maybe a little, but I'm not sure enough. I've watched
tape from that game, watched tape from Saturday's game, and
then i watched a little bit from Tuesday when they
had a three to one winner home over Harvard. Things
aren't clicking the way they were before the break. In Listen,
they were off for more than a month. That's a
(05:08):
long time. Then you had six players that win did
something incredible winning a gold medal, but their emotions now
are probably a little bit out of whack. I think
this team just has to get back to the identity
it had in early November when it was probably playing
its best hockey of the year, and it should straighten
(05:31):
out pretty quick. Obviously, Providence is a great opponent this
weekend and then next weekend the BCBU home and home series.
We're going to find out where BC is very quickly here.
But I think that there probably was a little bit
of a wake up and now they just have to
continue to get the smelling salts in them.
Speaker 4 (05:50):
The one thing that I'll counter with is that with
the Harvard game was that the defense we expect BC
to be in the wake up on the offensive side.
And this was something that I know I've talked about
a couple of times with a couple of different people,
and this was convincing me on BC side was that
Harvard game.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
BC didn't allow a ton of shots, and I.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
Know Harvard brought it like Harvard was playing much better,
and Harvard is a better team, then the record might
indicate they're around five hundred or so, a little under
five hundred. So BC absorbed the blows against Harvard. And
if you can hold a team to twenty five shots
or under, and I know it's gonna be very difficult
against Providence versus Harvard, you're doing it with a goaltender
(06:32):
and Jacob Fowler who can.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Win you that game with that little amount of shots.
Speaker 4 (06:36):
So I think we're looking at BC and wondering when
the offense maybe start clicking a little bit better. But
to me, it's more about what happened in the back
after the Merrimack. That Merrimac loss, that's been an indicator
of things to come.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
Yukhan is at Maine. The Huskies have been hot is late.
They are plus two hundred underdogs. Maine at home is
minus two seven over under on this one is a
five point five.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Yeah, this is a great timing for this series to happen.
If this was November when I didn't feel like Yukon
was playing their best hockey and Maine was clicking, I
wouldn't even consider this to be a close series. But
right now, I feel like this Yukon team since they've
come back. They beat Alaska, they went at Harvard, they
(07:25):
sweep New Hampshire home and home. Their only loss of
four to three lost to Wisconsin in the finals of
the Quick Trip Tournament. This team is playing right now,
and obviously Maine is two. They've had two really tough
series back to back weekends. Number one, I'm sorry, the
defending national champion Denver, which they split with, and then
(07:48):
they went on the road and played number eight UMass Lowell.
They swept them on the road, allowing just two goals
on the weekend. So I feel like both of these
teams are playing really well. Thus, if I always go
back to value, I don't know that I believe Yukon
can win. But there's a lot of value at plus
two hundred on Yukon Main, no value at minus two seventy.
(08:12):
And I get it. They're really good at home and
they should have this line, should be this spread because
of the fact this game's in our no, but there's
just no value on Main.
Speaker 4 (08:25):
Two thoughts one has revd the engine on the ice
bus Baby with Yukon get the ice bus going. And
two is that's a steaky tough road trip U NH
to Yukon for home at home, that's all. That's a
further distance then I think I bargain for Terham is
what now were in forty minutes from Boston or so
(08:46):
you're going a little bit further.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
You are going north south, but straight north south.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
But that's a steaky tough road trip to come away
with a home and home with a sweep. And so
they get the win at home on Friday, and then
to win a win on the road on Friday rather
and then win home on Saturday is a credit to
what Yukon has started to do. It was a tough
game on Saturday. So I like the value a lot
on Yukon here, and I like Yukon in general. I
(09:11):
think that there's a team that's going to make some
noise and I like what coach Kavanaugh does with Connecticut.
The over under for me at five and a half,
I don't love five and a half as an over
under in general, like I just don't.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
I don't love numbers that are that low.
Speaker 4 (09:29):
But as the further we go into the season, the
more that's a well placed number, so I don't have
an opinion on it. I could see this game going
three to two. I could see this game going two
to one. I could see this game going five to one.
That's the anything's on the table.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
At this point.
Speaker 4 (09:46):
I don't know if I touch the over under, but
I like the value on Yukon.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
Yeah. I see why five point five was the number. Though,
when you look last weekend, neither team allowed more neither
team totaled more than five goals in a game. Yes,
you put them together. They're both playing well. These are
probably the teams of the matchup to the last weekend.
These are the better teams, So you should bump it
up in five point five, perfect number to stay away from.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
You probably made fans of about five other leagues laugh
at the idea of one hundred and forty mile road trip.
Speaker 4 (10:19):
Being sneaky baby, long listen, I think what is it?
I think I said something the other day which was
my parents of ninety miles from me, and it was
one of those that I was like, should I bring
the my kid? Ou didn't have school, and I was like,
should I bring it down? Should I bring it to
my parents? I was like, no, I really don't want
to make the ride. It was ninety miles. I could
have made it. I yeah, I'm not ninety mile. That's
(10:43):
a long road trip. You got across three states. If
possibly bring a passport to go to New Hampshire, Oh
the avenue.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
I'm thinking about my four hour road trip today. Anyway,
Let's let's go to Michigan State at Michigan and I
gotta honestly say this one prized me. Michigan State is
minus one ten. Michigan is a slight home favorite at
minus one twenty. What didn't surprise me was six and
a half for the over under.
Speaker 3 (11:10):
Pick them. That's all they're telling us is this is
a pick them favorite Michigans lately because they're on home ice. Yeah,
this is one throw it in one of your wages
somewhere if you want to make a parlay, this is
a good one to maybe get some value out of
parlay if you feel one way or the other. Both
these teams are playing well right now, and I guess
(11:33):
maybe we should have thought that Michigan would be a
home dog in this one. But this is a throw
at the records. These teams play hard for each other,
when they're playing against one another, and you're right at
goals are going to be scored. I see this one.
This six and a half is a good number because
I think that seven, eight, nine are all possible. Six
(11:55):
is right there in the mix. I don't see five, four, three,
two or one coming into this one. I think if
I had to pick this one, I'm going Michigan State
Andy Over. I could be swayed anyway with this matchup.
Is there a is there?
Speaker 4 (12:12):
We don't get prop bets usually because I'd say whatever
it is, hamm of the over and penalties.
Speaker 3 (12:16):
Yeah, no, no prop bets.
Speaker 4 (12:19):
One of these games is going to be nasty, knock
them down.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
I don't even want to go back on what happened
last year.
Speaker 4 (12:27):
But one of these is just going to be one
of those one of those games that I think is
relatively high scoring, but the goaltenders play well. There's a
lot of penalties, but the both penalty kill and power
play do really well against each other. Probably a couple
of power play goals against a really strong penalty kill.
I think this is going to be just and it's
(12:49):
going to come down to the lire and so I
don't love the idea of picking either team in this
unless you really do feel passionately about them. The one
thing that I will say, but I think this kind
of robs value in this bet is Michigan State, dating
back to the GLI, which is at the back around
Christmas time, beating Northern Michigan too nothing was not what
(13:11):
I would have thought.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
I would have thought that to be higher.
Speaker 4 (13:14):
Get taken overtime against Wisconsin at home, and you lose
in the.
Speaker 3 (13:17):
Shootout against Penn State.
Speaker 4 (13:19):
To me, you've gone from winning regulation one game in
the weekend, win in overtime, now a tie in a
shootout loss. And this was something I was talking about earlier,
which is I don't like where Michigan State has been
trending in one game of the two this weekend.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
Over a weekend, I.
Speaker 4 (13:35):
Don't necessarily think they're going to sweep this weekend, and
that's where I give Michigan an edge. But Michigan has
no value at minus one twenty at home.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Because Michigan State is still the better team.
Speaker 4 (13:49):
Statistically, throw everything out the window and throw a dart
unless you really hate.
Speaker 3 (13:54):
One of the other schools, in which case do what
you gotta do.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Jim We've talked about some games like this getting skewed
by the number of bets for one team or another.
Is there possibly a lot of Michigan support skewing.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
This would be certainly. I didn't look at this line
when it opened, so I don't know if it's moved,
but there could have. The bookmaker itself could easily say, Hey,
we get a lot more traffic on Michigan than we
do on Michigan State in any sport, so let's make
(14:29):
sure that we're going to pump Michigan's number a little bit.
So we're going to that's where we get the minus
one twenty. I honestly thought this would have been by
minus one forty Michigan State minus plus one ten Michigan.
That's where I would have probably imagined this line was set.
But if you're going to take a lot of liability
to Michigan at the end of the day, this game
(14:51):
is a real toss up. I wasn't joking when I
said pick them. So if you could get a line
like that out there, yeah, So yeah, the bookmaker itself
likely moved this line right from the start.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
And Dan I wrote down prop bet on Pims myself
probably a few two's for hitting after the whistle and
maybe the ten or two in there too.
Speaker 4 (15:20):
You know what it was funny about last year when
that melee broke out in the third period, was that
Michigan was pumbling, was absolutely pummeling Michigan State in that game.
And I think a final might have been like was
that I might have been a snowman. It wasn't that
nake old game. I think it was an eight to
one or seven to one or six to one or
one of those, and then you know what, we might
(15:44):
lose this game, but we'll win this one in the
parking lot afterwards. But that shows you that Michigan last
year there was a much larger disparity at the time,
and Michigan dropped what eight goals on Michigan State whatever
it was, and then.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
Had a turnaround. And that was on the road. That
was a month.
Speaker 4 (16:03):
So again, throw everything out the window, and except the foil?
Speaker 3 (16:08):
Are we putting on the foil? This weekend? It was
seven to one, was the thank you? It was the
final month. But the next night Michigan State turned it
around a seven to five win. These two teams. That's
why I say throw out the records. You really have to.
By the way, the number of penalty minutes in that
game was one.
Speaker 4 (16:27):
Wow, also known as one team total in the two
thousand and one Atlantic Hockey Max season.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
We're gonna take a break and when we come back,
there are a couple of games in the NCCHD plus
our pizza money bet when uscho Edge continues back with
usccho Edge. Western Michigan is at North Dakota in that
one even money a minus one fifteen, So the fifteen
(16:54):
percent for the house over under a six and a half.
Speaker 3 (16:57):
I'm gonna just stand on my platform again. I hate
the fifteen percent of the house. Minus one ten was
the number I remember when the days with minus one
oh five. Sorry, let's get into this one though. This
is a great series. I think if it's being played
out Western they're a slight favorite. But the fact that
it's at North Dakota, this will be an absolute true
(17:18):
right down the middle. Split it minus one fifteen each way,
pick them over under a six and a half. Can't
touch the under there. I know that I I Western
in the over here and there's no value that I'm
vetting here. This is a straight line on both teams,
So I just like Western.
Speaker 4 (17:40):
See I like North Dakota here and for similar reasons.
And I don't know that we're going to get a
pick them type atmosphere or pick them type game on
North Dakota at home.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
For a lot of games the rest of the season.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
So I think that injects just enough value to shade
onto North Dakota. I do the over here regards list,
but I look at the teams that North Dakota has
played at home this year, even dating back to when
they played Boston University at the beginning of the year.
Speaker 3 (18:07):
This is just not enough for.
Speaker 4 (18:11):
If I'm trying to think of the way to describe this,
I think North Dakota probably should have been closer to
minus one thirty five at home. So that's where I'm
saying it's injecting the value. Western Michigan is still a
number fourteen in the country, So do with that, let
you will, whoop a coin.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
North Dakota has to start thinking a little bit more
desperately for the postseason. They're sitting right now at twentieth
in the pair. Wise, it's really nineteenth because Wisconsin is
three games below five hundred and would not be eligible.
But the North Dakota is basically five, six, seven places
away from the bubble, depending on how things shake out.
(18:50):
They've got to start winning some games or win the
NCCHC to make the postseason at this point. So that's
got to be playing on them too.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
It should be should be desperation time. You're almost in February,
That's what we have to think about. You're almost in February.
One of those things that you have to really consider.
I think that desperate hockey is sometimes the best hockey
you play in a given season. We'll see where North
Dakota comes out this weekend. I still like Western.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
Let's look at Arizona State at Saint Cloud. It's been
a good season for the Sun Devils. They are a
slight underdog at plus one ten. Saint Cloud State is
a minus one forty five and a half is the
over under. Saint Cloud has been in a little bit
of a skid lately, and Arizona State is putting together
(19:42):
a very good season.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
Yeah. I want to just look at the last few
months for Arizona stake. Go back to mid November. They
lost a game against Omaha, then they beat them the
next night. They then swept Denver. They swept a loose,
they swept an exhibition series against the national team development program.
They win their OW tournament, They beat North Dakota at home,
(20:04):
and then they lose in overtime the next night, still
taking four out of six points out of that series.
This is this is a team that I still don't
think is getting enough respect right now. I think that
there's plenty more you give, and the fact that they
were technically an underdog at plus one to ten. I
get it there on the road, but Saint Cloud's not
(20:26):
exactly knocking them down right now. I feel like Saint
Cloud has been the one team that's been the least
consistent of late swept by Duluth last weekend, they beat
Saint Thomas in a single game. They were even swept
by North Dkota before the break. I'm they'll have Brett
Larson back. He was probably back behind the bench last
(20:50):
weekend too, but that didn't seem to be a big impact.
So I'm not hot on this Saint Cloud State team,
even at home. So this one feels like an easy
pick of Arizona State, and I just think the line
is off here.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
Saint Claud's still good at home though, seven and three
at home and not the weather plays into this, but
the only thing that would prevent me from really looking
at Arizona State given all of that, and this is
what I was talking about, what we were talking about the
reverse last week when I think North Dakota was going
out to Arizona State and we were like, yeah, you're
gonna get out there and it's gonna be fifty five,
(21:25):
sixty five degrees or whatever it was seventy degrees and
it's gonna be nice, beautiful.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
You're you're taking in the golf shirts and short sleeves.
Speaker 4 (21:34):
You know, it's gonna be like Saturday when Arizona State
has to spend most of the day in the hotel
in Saint Cloud.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
Five. It's gonna be five. That's it.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
Five, and it's gonna be eleven below during the night.
Speaker 3 (21:47):
So I don't know.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
Players, come on, they're hockey players. I understand that. But yeah, look,
I have you notorious cold weather person. I love cold weather.
It's five. That's cold. I don't care who you are.
And when you step out, and like I said, you're
in a building.
Speaker 4 (22:05):
At least you're in a climate controlled building, but you're
gonna be a little miserable during the day. So I
don't know what that's gonna do to Friday's game.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
But at least it's but at least.
Speaker 4 (22:15):
Given everything, these are the things that run through my
head that hey, maybe it's not the best bet on
Arizona State.
Speaker 3 (22:20):
They're going to say, say, Cloud's good at home. I
just look through the roster.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
They've got maybe five players from southern climbs the rest
New York, Minnesota, Ontario, Massachusetts. These are cold weather kids.
It's gonna be like going home. We don't get five
up here. We get we do now, we just can't. Yeah,
we just tore it. Never mind, never mind, you know,
I throw that out the window. Yeah, I was trying
(22:45):
to find something for some Clouds.
Speaker 3 (22:46):
You're good. What's the vacation of Dan Rubin? Put out
another sweater? Dan? How don't even take this from you.
That's We'll send you a nice insulated took. I'mbout twenty
five anymore. I got older, my blood got ditter.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
All right, We've had enough of our jabs at Dan
for one podcast, maybe for three podcasts. But let's go
to our pizza money game. And again, this is not
any disrespect of the teams. This is talking about money
lines that are very wide. And this game is Notre
Dame at Minnesota, and in this one, Notre Dame is
(23:27):
a plus two forty. Minnesota at home is a minus
three thirty five and a half is the over under.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
I'm trying to reason why Notre Dame. Why can Notre
Dame win this game. Yeah, They've already played Minnesota twice,
they lost six three and five three. Now they're going
on the road to play Minnesota at Mariucci. I'm just
(23:55):
trying to figure out a reason for why, because it
doesn't feel like it should be a plus two forty
and it doesn't feel like Minnesota should be minus three thirty. Yes,
they're good. Notre Dame's not horrendous though. They just split
with Ohio State. They can go back. They had played
(24:18):
Michigan State really tough, took them to overtime. I have
plenty of reasons to believe that they swept Michigan before
the break. I have plenty of reason to believe that
Notre Dame could get this done. Is this a pizza
money back for me? Yeah? This is one that if
I had the twenty dollars, I would put it on
(24:40):
and this one makes sense. I like it, you know
what I like. There's gonna be good vibes at Notre
Dame this weekend. And I know that they're at Minnesota.
Speaker 4 (24:51):
What a but the vibes around Notre Dame that should
exist because this is a better team than I think
the the record is specifically dating back to the Friendship
for like you said, or before the Friendship four. There
was a span when Notre Dame was playing very poor hockey,
right we taught it was around November, I think it was.
(25:11):
We were talking about them against Wisconsin and they came out
of the Wisconsin weekend. It was a split. No one
really grabbed good vibes. November didn't go well with some
of the They played better, but they didn't win games.
And then they came out and they even though Notre
Dame is just not there in terms of its record
(25:32):
per se, they're just playing better.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
And to me, that is a lot of what I
am liking in terms of throwing pizza money down.
Speaker 4 (25:46):
This is a team that's going to get a lot hotter,
and like I said, it's it's a good pizza money bet.
It's one of those you know what I like, what
they did against Michigan. I like what they did against
Penn State, particularly at at Wrigley. Go for it, throw
one topping down I and then you know what, if
(26:08):
you win that one, roll it into the football game
on Monday.
Speaker 2 (26:12):
The previous two games is six to three and a
five to three total nine goals and eight goals.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
Do you take the over in this one with a
five and a half, yes, yes, yes, yeah. I don't
think you have a choice. Even if you don't really
betting the over under, that's a safe bet. That's actually
a really nice little parlay. If you like Notre Dame
plus the over, that's not the worst bet. Although I
feel like if Notre Dame is gonna win, it's probably
(26:40):
gonna be a three to one game, So maybe I'm
not betting Notre Dame plus the over. That that makes
sense to me.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
That seems to be the style of Notre Dame over
the past several seasons.
Speaker 3 (26:51):
Yeah, if they're playing winning hockey, their defense is good.
Speaker 4 (26:55):
I think you take our pizza money and and pair it,
you know what, go wild, pair it with the Hampshire
and get a supreme. Two of them win, get a supreme.
Those are the two longest odds I think on the weekend. Yes, yeah,
get those. And then you're swimming at pizza. I don't
want to picture that picture Dan Ruben swimming in pizza.
(27:17):
And since it's Notre Dame, and I know Notre Dame
has a huge presence in Chicago, it's got to be
a deep dish.
Speaker 3 (27:23):
Go for deep dish.
Speaker 2 (27:24):
Maybe the South Side cracker crust, Yeah, much better.
Speaker 3 (27:30):
Whatever you do, don't get it.
Speaker 4 (27:32):
If you're gonna do your pizza bet By the way,
on Notre Dame cannot.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
Be a New York pie.
Speaker 4 (27:36):
It cannot be traditional because you're in the Midwest at
that point. You've got to like drown in your pizza
at that point. But you can drown in a deep dish.
Speaker 3 (27:44):
That's kay. Yes, well that's rapid there.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
For Jim Connolly, for Dan Rubin, I'm ed Trevsker and
this has been us cho edg
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