January 24, 2025 • 26 mins
USCHO Edge hosts Jim Connelly (@jimmyconnelly), Dan Rubin (@DanRubin12) and Ed Trefzger (@EdTrefzger) look at money lines and over/under for six college games on January 24, 2025:
- Minnesota -105 @ Michigan State -125; over/under 5.5
- Michigan -140 @ Wisconsin +110; o/u 6.5
- Colorado College +130 @ Arizona State -166; o/u 5.5
- UConn +120 vs. Quinnipiac -154; o/u 5.5
- Boston College -154 @ Boston University +120; o/u 6.5
- Denver -315 @ Minnesota Duluth +230; o/u 6.5 (our "pizza money" game)
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to us Cho Edge for Friday, January twenty fourth,
twenty twenty five. I'm at Trevska alongside Jim Connolly and
Dan Rubin. This episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's
d one Frozen four April tenth and twelfth in Saint Louis, Missouri.
Get your tickets now at NCAA dot com slash Frozen four. Gentlemen,
(00:34):
we're back at another slate of games to look at
in case you're somebody who likes to put a little
money on games, which we always tell you that we
don't bet on college hockey, and I'm the lone standouts
avoiding any kind of betting on sports in general, but
we stay away from the college game. However, it is
(00:56):
interesting to talk about it. And the first one we
have is a big, big, big, big big matchup not
only nationally but especially in the Big Ten, and that's
Minnesota at Michigan State. To tell you how close this
one is, Minnesota is a slight favorite at minus one
oh five, Michigan State is minus one twenty five, and
(01:18):
the over unders five and a half.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Let's just say it, it is the battle for first
place in the Big Ten, and if one team comes
away with six points this weekend, I would almost be
willing to hand them the regular season championship.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
This is a big series.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
It shades a little bit toward Michigan State only because
of the fact that they're at home, but this is
the heavyweight battle that you wait for over all year
in the Big Ten. I think a lot of people
weren't sure if it was going to be Michigan State
Minnesota or Michigan Michigan Minnesota that was going to be
that battle, but they knew. I think he knew Minnesota
would be in there. Let's go back to the last
(01:58):
time these two teams play, and it was mid December,
a three to three tie with Michigan State winning the shootout,
and then a five to three Michigan State win. Those
games were in the Twin Cities. I still like Michigan
State here. I know that Minnesota's played some really good
hockey of late, but I still like Michigan State. I
(02:20):
am on Michigan State in the Big Ten until they
give me a reason not to be.
Speaker 4 (02:26):
I agree.
Speaker 5 (02:27):
Michigan State to me is look, the loss to Michigan
was even an overtime loss, so it didn't hurt them
as bad as a regulation loss would have taken the
three points. They at least got a point out of it.
But it was also a one bowl game. And even
for me when I was lining this game up, looking
(02:47):
at the statistics of who's got the better offense, who's
got the better defense, everything is negligible except for one fact,
which is that Minnesota's penalty kill has.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
Been on the season not great.
Speaker 5 (02:59):
It's down in the seventy percent range, which which is
lower than actually Boston University, which is another team that
we'll talk about, probably.
Speaker 4 (03:06):
Odd in this. To me, that one.
Speaker 5 (03:11):
Little advantage shades it to Michigan State plus on Friday,
also first game of the weekend in Lansing. It just
to me shades for Michigan State, which is why the
line at minus won twenty five feels right and minus
one oh five. I would even say Minnesota would have
been a plus one ten or plus one oh five,
(03:32):
just to give it a little extra action on Minnesota.
But I like where the odds are at. I think
the numbers are all well placed, but I do like
Michigan State.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
Here.
Speaker 5 (03:39):
The over under at five and a half is also
incredibly well placed because this could easily be a three
to two game.
Speaker 4 (03:46):
This could easily be a five to four game.
Speaker 5 (03:49):
It's a big ten game, of course it could go over,
but a three to two game it plays.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
You're right under. So I love the number.
Speaker 5 (03:56):
I love where they put the numbers, and I hate
it for bets, but I like Michigan State and maybe
the under here it's funny.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Earlier on in the season, we probably would think the
over would be a good place, and this part of
the year is where the understarts to happen.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
It is when you start seeing defenses certainly play a
lot tighter. You get to the NCAA tournament, yeather you
have the outlier game that ends up seven to five
or something like that, or a couple of years ago
in the Big ten where figuring ways to run it
up ten, eleven, twelve, thirteen was always in the mix.
But for the most part, when you get to the
(04:32):
NCAA tournament, you can say that five goals is a
good total, because if you reach five, that's usually a
pretty big number.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
It's just part of hockey.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
Down the stretch, teams make sure that they tighten up,
and I think offenses don't take as much risk as
you get toward the end of the season. Early in
the season, you're you're willing to take the risk and sacrifice,
maybe on the defensive side, with the thought that you
could score a couple of extra goals.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
I think that thought goes away to time of year.
Speaker 5 (05:01):
One last one, last point to throw in here for
Minnesota is that despite being the nation's best offense right there,
averaging four plus goals per game or so, last week,
scored three in the lost in the overtime, lost in
order to scored five against in the win.
Speaker 4 (05:16):
They're a very hot and cold team.
Speaker 5 (05:18):
If you look at the five to one loss to
Ohio State, book ended with a six to one win
except for the matchups against teams like Air Force, like
Mercyhurst earlier in the season when they dropped the whole
bunch of goals on Saint Thomas. As the year has
gone on, the number for Minnesota has gone down in
(05:39):
a sense that it's become a little bit more inconsistent offensively.
And when you go back to the Michigan State weekend
that they had, they only took a point because they
lost in a shootout.
Speaker 4 (05:49):
They only scored six goals over the whole weekend.
Speaker 5 (05:51):
So even that four goals per game to me is
starting to shade down as we've gotten deeper into the
year for the reasons that you said.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
Let's look at another Big Ten matchup, Michigan at Wisconsin.
They are both tied in fourth place in the standings
with twenty points, but Wisconsin overall is just trying to
get the five hundred two points two games below five hundred.
The funny thing about them, Michigan has four of its
wins in the Big Ten in overtime and Wisconsin has
(06:21):
six of its losses in overtime. Now the numbers on
this one, the over under is six and a half.
Wisconsin at home is a slight underdog at plus one ten.
Michigan is minus one forty.
Speaker 3 (06:35):
This is a tough one.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
This is one that I really don't know which way
to go in the handicap. I feel like Michigan is
the better team. I feel like Wisconsin at home they
tend to play pretty well, and neither team has shown
me a level of consistency that I look for at
this point in the year. I have some reservations about
(06:58):
taking Michigan on the road here, So if I had
to done to the head and make a pick here,
it would be Wisconsin. I don't know about the over
under too. I think I just would have to go
over with this one. I think this could be a
pretty high scoring game, a lot of defensive mistakes and breakdowns.
These offenses can put the puck in the nets. I'd
(07:19):
go the over as well, Wisconsin over. That's where I am.
Speaker 5 (07:23):
I think about Wisconsin in what we talked about with
the Notre Dame weekend back in November, when we were
talking about how my case things had said we have
to tear it down and that Notre Dame and Wisconsin
were both up against it at that point. Since that
weekend and since the weekend after when Wisconsin came out
of that weekend and wound up having to play Minnesota,
(07:44):
which was not an ideal situation. Wisconsin has lost one
game in regulation. The rest of them have been overtime,
which I know I mentioned that that factoid, but also
the majority of their games have not even been losses.
Beat Michigan State. They've beaten Michigan. They when they one
of their losses was to Michigan in overtime. They've beaten Connecticut,
(08:07):
they came back and I think they lost in overtime
to Michigan State again in the other home at home
with them, or I was in Wisconsin, I don't remember.
But the fact of the matter is when we're handicapping
it and you see a home underdog in Wisconsin which
plays pretty well at home. The consistency has been much
better for Wisconsin since the beginning of the year, which
(08:30):
is also why an under five hundred team based on
the strength of the Big ten has a shot to
get into the tournament right now at seventeen and the pairwise,
So to me, this is a big game for Wisconsin.
I like Wisconsin with the odds. I like that it's
plus one to ten. I like that you can get
a little bit of value off of Wisconsin on a
team that has been playing exceptionally well since the middle
(08:51):
of November.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Well, let's take a look at one more before the break,
and that's Colorado College at Arizona State.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
If my numbers are right.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
After starting out eight and zero, CC is three, ten
and one since then in Arizona State. Not a slow start,
but not a speedy one. But they've been off to
the races and are doing great in the NCCHC so
maybe a different different game than we might have thought
of if we were looking at this back in October
five and a half is the over under Colorado College
(09:22):
is plus one thirty in Arizona State is minus one
sixty six.
Speaker 1 (09:28):
Honestly, I'm maybe a little surprised that it's even this
close this line when I guess we think about the
fact that Colorado College did already beat Arizona State this
season twice. That is something that probably factors in here.
But the way these two teams are playing, they're going
(09:50):
in opposite directions. I look at Arizona State, they should
probably be closer to a favorite, somewhere in the minus
two hundred range. So I think one sixty six great
value on them. So I've taken Arizona State over under
five and a half. I think it's going to go over.
I know that you have a couple of good goaltenders here,
but still I think that these two offenses get up
(10:11):
and down the ice fast enough that this thing will
be six to seventy eight goals. So I like Arizona
State and the over on this one.
Speaker 4 (10:19):
I think in a sign that goals have been up
this year.
Speaker 5 (10:21):
Colorado College at two point seven goals per game is
down around fortieth in the nation, which doesn't seem like
a whole lot of goals, but bear in mind that's
one or two extra goals. One extra goal a weekend
puts them up over three, which gets them into the
top twenty five and comparable to or comparable to teams
like Michigan.
Speaker 4 (10:41):
Like Wisconsin, like Connecticut.
Speaker 5 (10:42):
So I don't hate Colorado College as a scoring offense
to try and push the over, given that both of
these teams do a pretty good job at keeping the
puck out of the net, which is why that five
and a half is well placed. But I don't like
value on Colorado College right now of the actual plus
one thirty. If maybe, if this were a pizza money bet,
(11:03):
maybe if this were closer to plus two hundred, I'd
love Colorado College as a pizza bet.
Speaker 4 (11:08):
I don't think there's enough value there.
Speaker 5 (11:10):
They are also not particularly great this year on the road.
I think give only won three games away from away
from the altitude and going to Arizona State, which is
the longest road, which I don't actually think it's the
longest road trip in the NCCHC for them that I
think about it, I think actually for Denver and Colorado College,
it's not that far to get to Arizona State. But
(11:31):
doesn't mean I like the bet and Arizona State at
minus won sixty six. Maybe I actually stay away from
this one in terms of picking a team, but I
do like possibly looking at the over just because I
think there's a decent shot at it. That said, both
of these teams do a pretty good job of keeping
the puck out of the net, So maybe five and
(11:51):
a half's a good number.
Speaker 4 (11:52):
And I'm going to correct myself on the fly.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
So when you fly, I think CC has the shortest
drive to the airport, or one of the shortest. If
I remember the layout of Colorado Springs, I.
Speaker 5 (12:03):
Do you know that when they had to go to
Air Force, it's an added like two thousand feet to
go off for a couple of miles.
Speaker 4 (12:08):
You drive a couple of miles and gain two thousand feet. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
I think I've made that trip something like seventeen times
the Air Force, so it'll be eighteen next weekend. My goodness,
We're going to take a break and come back with
more of This episode is sponsored by the NCAAA Men's
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Speaker 4 (12:55):
So's frozen fool.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
We're back with usccho edge. We've got a couple of
Eastern games before we get to our pizza money bet,
and that is Yukon versus Quinnipiac. It's in the first
round of the Connecticut Ice Tournament, being held at the
gorgeous Martiri Family Arena at Sacred Heart University. In this one,
(13:20):
the over under is five and a half. Yukon is
plus one twenty Quinnipiac minus one fifty four.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
This is a great matchup At the way these two
teams are playing. There's been times in the year that
both of these teams have just really struggled, and now
the timing of this is perfect that they're going to
face off and Connecticut ice great tournament really rivals.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
It's beginning to rival the bean Pot.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
The fact that they've been able to continue to pull
this tournament off year after year, and I love the
fact that these four schools seem very devoted to it.
But I look at this and either way, it's hard
to pick a winner in this one. Because the Yukon
just had a great weekend up at me, Quinnipiac's been
hard for.
Speaker 3 (14:03):
A couple of weekends.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
I think I would just go with value here, and
Yukon has the better value. It's going to be a
tough victory to get. This is the early game, so
maybe not a lot of atmosphere in the building, not
sure how well Quinnipiac will drive, how many tickets are
going to be available, all of that sort of stuff.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
I'm assuming this.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Will be a sold out event over the two nights.
But in this early game I would go I'd probably
go Quinnipiac over under a five point five.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
I'm gonna lay off that one.
Speaker 5 (14:36):
Yeah, I'm not touching the over under with a ten
foot poll. Right now, Look, ECAC teams. This is my
biggest issue with Quinnipiac being at minus one fifty. ECAC
has not been a good year this year. It has
not been a good league this year. The league is
trending towards one bit. And that's even if Quinnipiac doesn't
(14:56):
win the league. And that's a sense that Quinnipiac right
now is on the bubble the beginning of the season.
Speaker 4 (15:03):
It is well in the past, and they've started to
put things.
Speaker 5 (15:07):
Together in a way that has made them rocketed them
right back to the top of the conference, which to
be fairs natural order being restored. But when you take
Quinnipiac and you take any ECAC team right now out
of ECAC play, the results just aren't there. And most recently,
yes quinnipiec has six to one win over Stonehill, also
(15:30):
at a five to one loss to Northeastern. I think
the general strength of Connecticut, the general strength of a
Hockey East team this year, puts added value into looking
long and hard at Yukon. I think Quinnipiac is a
very good team. I think that they're going to come
(15:52):
along and likely make the run that maybe they haven't
had in the ECAC to a White lock up. I
do also think that Connecticut being a top four or
five Hockey East team, what's them in a stratus fare
right now that the rest of the country can't really touch,
And for that seeing them as an underdog, I'm not
(16:13):
sure that you're going to get much underdog value on
Hockey East teams the rest of the way.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
So Yukon for me, is a good bet here.
Speaker 2 (16:20):
Our next one is a big one in the East,
maybe a preview of the Beanpot Championship on February tenth,
but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Boston College at
Boston University over under on this one is six and
a half. BC is the strong favorite at minus one
point fifty four. BU is plus one twenty at home.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
I'm gonna say the same thing I just said about
Yukon Quinnipiak. These two teams, you've gotten them playing their best.
I'm not sure that BC has had many slumps this year.
Speaker 3 (16:53):
They didn't come.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
Out of the break strong as the guys came back
from World Juniors, as they played their first game in
more than a month. Has gone away they've played. They
just played a great weekend against Providence, So I'm not
that concerned to get about the Eagles, and BU is
playing great hockey right now. They just swept New Hampshire,
coming up a sweep of Vermont before that. They're finding
(17:14):
ways to put goals in. They're limiting the number. All
of their stats are getting better. The area that they
were struggling in penalties take, and that's reduced a little
bit their penalty kill. It's better, I feel right now
we're looking at the best version of BEU.
Speaker 3 (17:31):
I'm gonna go with the Dan Rubin mentality.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
I like home underdogs and right now, be you home
underdog for at least Friday night.
Speaker 5 (17:41):
Give me the terriers eat of this one for me
is look, I've looked at this. I've analyzed this matchup
six ways to sideways, between writing about it, talking about it,
about it on podcasts, talking about it to everyone under
the sun. Outside of the fact that people who weren't
from Massachusetts, this has a lot of attention right now.
Speaker 4 (18:05):
Boston College and Boston University.
Speaker 5 (18:07):
Maybe doesn't have the same hype as last year with
the one verse two matchup, Like Greg Brown admitted that
this week, maybe it doesn't have the same national hype,
but it is a critically important matchup for both teams.
BU is in first place in Hockey East, despite being
behind Boston College in both the national poll and the
pair wise Boston University, who did not play particularly well
(18:31):
at the beginning of the season, they had their rough
patch figured it out in Hockey East play and even
Bu's numbers if you look at the numbers, they have
not been a strong defensive team over the whole season,
but have been very good as of late BC, as
mentioned as Dal started to put things together. I also,
(18:55):
in this kind of matchup, love the fact that these
are two teams that play similar styles. Something that talking
this week to Aiden Hirschuk, he said to me, he
said during media this week that this is we see
a lot of teams try to slow us down, tie
it up in the neutral zone. Bu's not going to
do that. Bu's going to try to go fast and
we got to try to slow them down. And it's
(19:16):
very similar styles. So I think this as much as
we talked about the Minnesota Michigan State series, there's a
little bit of Eastern bias out of me, a little
bit of growing up rooting for BU over BC when
I was a kid, and a little bit of working
for BC. Now, I think this matchup easily the series
of the weekend, and as it always is and green
line rivalry, throw everything out the window.
Speaker 4 (19:39):
Is going to be two sold out buildings the city.
Speaker 5 (19:42):
This might actually be the best hockey that's going to
be played by a Boston team this weekend.
Speaker 4 (19:46):
And I'm including the Bruins there.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
Out not making a pick. Might you have to go there?
Speaker 4 (19:56):
Why do they go there?
Speaker 5 (19:57):
Because I'm not making a pick on this one, because
that would be that's the it's the heart street in me.
But it is the Kirk Curve Street model. But if
I'm gonna if someone's gonna catch catch some flak from me,
it's gonna be the fact that I've sat down and
watched the Bruins far more often than I needed to,
and I am so angry that's traded with them going
(20:18):
straight from BEATCVU on this one, I'm letting it all
hang out. It is not a green line rivalry. For
the record, it is also an orange line rivalry. It
is also a red line rivalry. This goes deep into
the heart of every this matchup. I will say, this
goes deep into the heart of everything that is great
about the Boston hockey complex. I used to that's all.
(20:40):
That's that's I could go on forever about that. No
pick necessary on this one. Just enjoy, sit back and
enjoy the ride.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
If it's any help, Dan, I've been rooting against the
Bruins ever since they fired Jim Montgomery.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
That's fair.
Speaker 4 (20:54):
That's fair. That's very fair.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
And let's go to where a pizza money bet, and
the pizza money one is one where the numbers are
so wide that it's if you got twenty bucks to
put on a game instead of buying a pizza, you
can do this one. It's Denver at Minnesota Duluth, and
it's interesting. Denver, with a couple of games in hand,
still is eight points out of first place in the NCC,
(21:17):
Minnesota Duluth just one behind Denver six and four in conference.
Minnesota Duluth split on the road at CC with a
seven to two win on Friday night. But the over
under on this one is six and a half. Denver
as the road favorite, is minus three point fifteen in
Minnesota Duluth is the home underdog is plus two thirty.
Speaker 4 (21:39):
I this is one of those lines.
Speaker 3 (21:41):
I don't know how you came up with it, and
not you.
Speaker 4 (21:44):
Unless it's moonlighting and we don't know about it.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
Could there be some human factors being considered here that
Denver needs to start playing desperate hockey here to move
themselves up the NCC standings. That's a reason I could
see them shading so heavily. But Denver's on the road.
D Luth is arguably playing better right now than they
have been much of the season. I just feel that
(22:09):
this one is dying. It's calling out for me to
for us to bet on Minnesota du Luth here because
plus two thirty. I know that they're not supposed to
win the game, but they have better odds at winning
the game than plus two thirty.
Speaker 3 (22:27):
They're gonna win more than one out.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
Of every three times in this it's probably somewhere in
the they'd split this series. So I think that's good
value I would take Duluth.
Speaker 3 (22:38):
I would not touch the over under.
Speaker 5 (22:40):
Yeah, I wouldn't touch the over under in this one either.
I think six and a half's a high number to
get to, and Denver average is just under four goals
per game. D Luth averages about three goals allowed per game,
so I can see this easily getting to a six
between the two teams. I also are a five or six,
but six and a half's just a high number to
get to at this point in the season.
Speaker 4 (23:02):
That's for the money line, Dabluth.
Speaker 5 (23:05):
I've been waiting for the Dubooth run for even last
year and the year before I've waited sat on dabout
said they've got something left in them. This is not
a team that's going to finish fifth and sixth in
the NCC every year. And I know the the that
Like when I first started covering teams from the West
and I started watching teams from the West, Tabooth was
(23:28):
the first team I watched. It was at the Frozen
Four they were winning the National Championship. That was one
of the first teams that I really came into into
western college hockey at the time and learned.
Speaker 4 (23:40):
About the style from them.
Speaker 5 (23:41):
So I think there is an element of that is
very good that could take a team like Denver that
we're just looking at and seeing.
Speaker 3 (23:51):
Last year, Denver.
Speaker 5 (23:53):
Was of the four Frozen Four teams I felt was
the fourth one, like the fourth best, and then went
on to win the National championship.
Speaker 1 (24:00):
Yeah, sixteen teams, they were one of the bottom, but
I never thought that Denver was flawed. This year, I'm
starting to think a little bit that Denver is flawed.
I can't quite put my finger on it.
Speaker 5 (24:12):
There's still top four pair wise team, there's still likely
going to be a one or two seed. But once
they got into playing teams that understand them a bit
more and play them more frequently and get into NCCHC play,
there's been something that's missing. And it's hard to fault
them for that because they're defending national champions, their coach
went to the World Juniors like that, it's hard to
fault them. I just there's something about them that is
(24:34):
one of those something just seems off and they've got
to correct it between now and the end of the year.
And so when I see Denver facing a plus two
something on the road south plus two thirty at home,
that seems fire me up some sausage and pepperoni.
Speaker 4 (24:50):
I'm throwing it down. Give me the meat lover. At
that point, I'm good with it.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Let me throw one thing in here. If you flip
your calendar back to twenty twenty four, it was right
about this time last year that Denver got everything straightened
out and went on a role.
Speaker 3 (25:05):
That's correct, that's a really good point.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Yeah, it was this time and that's when they started
they almost changed their mentality. And I won't say for
every game because it really was more toward the postseason
the NCAA Tournament that they became the lockdown defense, but
they I think that they started playing more responsible hockey.
This is a team that we know that they have
the firepower. Now it's just, you know, how do you
(25:32):
compliment that with defense and goaltending. I think that when
they get all of it running together that the same
team as last year this is such a powerhouse.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
With that will wrap things up. This episode has been
sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division One Frozen four April
tenth and twelfth in Saint Louis, Missouri. Get your tickets
now at NCAA dot Com, Slash Frozen four for Jim Connolly,
for Dan Rubin, im Ed Trevsker and this has been
usccho Edge
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to us Cho Edge for Friday, January twenty fourth,
twenty twenty five. I'm at Trevska alongside Jim Connolly and
Dan Rubin. This episode is sponsored by the NCAA Men's
d one Frozen four April tenth and twelfth in Saint Louis, Missouri.
Get your tickets now at NCAA dot com slash Frozen four. Gentlemen,
(00:34):
we're back at another slate of games to look at
in case you're somebody who likes to put a little
money on games, which we always tell you that we
don't bet on college hockey, and I'm the lone standouts
avoiding any kind of betting on sports in general, but
we stay away from the college game. However, it is
(00:56):
interesting to talk about it. And the first one we
have is a big, big, big, big big matchup not
only nationally but especially in the Big Ten, and that's
Minnesota at Michigan State. To tell you how close this
one is, Minnesota is a slight favorite at minus one
oh five, Michigan State is minus one twenty five, and
(01:18):
the over unders five and a half.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Let's just say it, it is the battle for first
place in the Big Ten, and if one team comes
away with six points this weekend, I would almost be
willing to hand them the regular season championship.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
This is a big series.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
It shades a little bit toward Michigan State only because
of the fact that they're at home, but this is
the heavyweight battle that you wait for over all year
in the Big Ten. I think a lot of people
weren't sure if it was going to be Michigan State
Minnesota or Michigan Michigan Minnesota that was going to be
that battle, but they knew. I think he knew Minnesota
would be in there. Let's go back to the last
(01:58):
time these two teams play, and it was mid December,
a three to three tie with Michigan State winning the shootout,
and then a five to three Michigan State win. Those
games were in the Twin Cities. I still like Michigan
State here. I know that Minnesota's played some really good
hockey of late, but I still like Michigan State. I
(02:20):
am on Michigan State in the Big Ten until they
give me a reason not to be.
Speaker 4 (02:26):
I agree.
Speaker 5 (02:27):
Michigan State to me is look, the loss to Michigan
was even an overtime loss, so it didn't hurt them
as bad as a regulation loss would have taken the
three points. They at least got a point out of it.
But it was also a one bowl game. And even
for me when I was lining this game up, looking
(02:47):
at the statistics of who's got the better offense, who's
got the better defense, everything is negligible except for one fact,
which is that Minnesota's penalty kill has.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
Been on the season not great.
Speaker 5 (02:59):
It's down in the seventy percent range, which which is
lower than actually Boston University, which is another team that
we'll talk about, probably.
Speaker 4 (03:06):
Odd in this. To me, that one.
Speaker 5 (03:11):
Little advantage shades it to Michigan State plus on Friday,
also first game of the weekend in Lansing. It just
to me shades for Michigan State, which is why the
line at minus won twenty five feels right and minus
one oh five. I would even say Minnesota would have
been a plus one ten or plus one oh five,
(03:32):
just to give it a little extra action on Minnesota.
But I like where the odds are at. I think
the numbers are all well placed, but I do like
Michigan State.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
Here.
Speaker 5 (03:39):
The over under at five and a half is also
incredibly well placed because this could easily be a three
to two game.
Speaker 4 (03:46):
This could easily be a five to four game.
Speaker 5 (03:49):
It's a big ten game, of course it could go over,
but a three to two game it plays.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
You're right under. So I love the number.
Speaker 5 (03:56):
I love where they put the numbers, and I hate
it for bets, but I like Michigan State and maybe
the under here it's funny.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Earlier on in the season, we probably would think the
over would be a good place, and this part of
the year is where the understarts to happen.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
It is when you start seeing defenses certainly play a
lot tighter. You get to the NCAA tournament, yeather you
have the outlier game that ends up seven to five
or something like that, or a couple of years ago
in the Big ten where figuring ways to run it
up ten, eleven, twelve, thirteen was always in the mix.
But for the most part, when you get to the
(04:32):
NCAA tournament, you can say that five goals is a
good total, because if you reach five, that's usually a
pretty big number.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
It's just part of hockey.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
Down the stretch, teams make sure that they tighten up,
and I think offenses don't take as much risk as
you get toward the end of the season. Early in
the season, you're you're willing to take the risk and sacrifice,
maybe on the defensive side, with the thought that you
could score a couple of extra goals.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
I think that thought goes away to time of year.
Speaker 5 (05:01):
One last one, last point to throw in here for
Minnesota is that despite being the nation's best offense right there,
averaging four plus goals per game or so, last week,
scored three in the lost in the overtime, lost in
order to scored five against in the win.
Speaker 4 (05:16):
They're a very hot and cold team.
Speaker 5 (05:18):
If you look at the five to one loss to
Ohio State, book ended with a six to one win
except for the matchups against teams like Air Force, like
Mercyhurst earlier in the season when they dropped the whole
bunch of goals on Saint Thomas. As the year has
gone on, the number for Minnesota has gone down in
(05:39):
a sense that it's become a little bit more inconsistent offensively.
And when you go back to the Michigan State weekend
that they had, they only took a point because they
lost in a shootout.
Speaker 4 (05:49):
They only scored six goals over the whole weekend.
Speaker 5 (05:51):
So even that four goals per game to me is
starting to shade down as we've gotten deeper into the
year for the reasons that you said.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
Let's look at another Big Ten matchup, Michigan at Wisconsin.
They are both tied in fourth place in the standings
with twenty points, but Wisconsin overall is just trying to
get the five hundred two points two games below five hundred.
The funny thing about them, Michigan has four of its
wins in the Big Ten in overtime and Wisconsin has
(06:21):
six of its losses in overtime. Now the numbers on
this one, the over under is six and a half.
Wisconsin at home is a slight underdog at plus one ten.
Michigan is minus one forty.
Speaker 3 (06:35):
This is a tough one.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
This is one that I really don't know which way
to go in the handicap. I feel like Michigan is
the better team. I feel like Wisconsin at home they
tend to play pretty well, and neither team has shown
me a level of consistency that I look for at
this point in the year. I have some reservations about
(06:58):
taking Michigan on the road here, So if I had
to done to the head and make a pick here,
it would be Wisconsin. I don't know about the over
under too. I think I just would have to go
over with this one. I think this could be a
pretty high scoring game, a lot of defensive mistakes and breakdowns.
These offenses can put the puck in the nets. I'd
(07:19):
go the over as well, Wisconsin over. That's where I am.
Speaker 5 (07:23):
I think about Wisconsin in what we talked about with
the Notre Dame weekend back in November, when we were
talking about how my case things had said we have
to tear it down and that Notre Dame and Wisconsin
were both up against it at that point. Since that
weekend and since the weekend after when Wisconsin came out
of that weekend and wound up having to play Minnesota,
(07:44):
which was not an ideal situation. Wisconsin has lost one
game in regulation. The rest of them have been overtime,
which I know I mentioned that that factoid, but also
the majority of their games have not even been losses.
Beat Michigan State. They've beaten Michigan. They when they one
of their losses was to Michigan in overtime. They've beaten Connecticut,
(08:07):
they came back and I think they lost in overtime
to Michigan State again in the other home at home
with them, or I was in Wisconsin, I don't remember.
But the fact of the matter is when we're handicapping
it and you see a home underdog in Wisconsin which
plays pretty well at home. The consistency has been much
better for Wisconsin since the beginning of the year, which
(08:30):
is also why an under five hundred team based on
the strength of the Big ten has a shot to
get into the tournament right now at seventeen and the pairwise,
So to me, this is a big game for Wisconsin.
I like Wisconsin with the odds. I like that it's
plus one to ten. I like that you can get
a little bit of value off of Wisconsin on a
team that has been playing exceptionally well since the middle
(08:51):
of November.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Well, let's take a look at one more before the break,
and that's Colorado College at Arizona State.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
If my numbers are right.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
After starting out eight and zero, CC is three, ten
and one since then in Arizona State. Not a slow start,
but not a speedy one. But they've been off to
the races and are doing great in the NCCHC so
maybe a different different game than we might have thought
of if we were looking at this back in October
five and a half is the over under Colorado College
(09:22):
is plus one thirty in Arizona State is minus one
sixty six.
Speaker 1 (09:28):
Honestly, I'm maybe a little surprised that it's even this
close this line when I guess we think about the
fact that Colorado College did already beat Arizona State this
season twice. That is something that probably factors in here.
But the way these two teams are playing, they're going
(09:50):
in opposite directions. I look at Arizona State, they should
probably be closer to a favorite, somewhere in the minus
two hundred range. So I think one sixty six great
value on them. So I've taken Arizona State over under
five and a half. I think it's going to go over.
I know that you have a couple of good goaltenders here,
but still I think that these two offenses get up
(10:11):
and down the ice fast enough that this thing will
be six to seventy eight goals. So I like Arizona
State and the over on this one.
Speaker 4 (10:19):
I think in a sign that goals have been up
this year.
Speaker 5 (10:21):
Colorado College at two point seven goals per game is
down around fortieth in the nation, which doesn't seem like
a whole lot of goals, but bear in mind that's
one or two extra goals. One extra goal a weekend
puts them up over three, which gets them into the
top twenty five and comparable to or comparable to teams
like Michigan.
Speaker 4 (10:41):
Like Wisconsin, like Connecticut.
Speaker 5 (10:42):
So I don't hate Colorado College as a scoring offense
to try and push the over, given that both of
these teams do a pretty good job at keeping the
puck out of the net, which is why that five
and a half is well placed. But I don't like
value on Colorado College right now of the actual plus
one thirty. If maybe, if this were a pizza money bet,
(11:03):
maybe if this were closer to plus two hundred, I'd
love Colorado College as a pizza bet.
Speaker 4 (11:08):
I don't think there's enough value there.
Speaker 5 (11:10):
They are also not particularly great this year on the road.
I think give only won three games away from away
from the altitude and going to Arizona State, which is
the longest road, which I don't actually think it's the
longest road trip in the NCCHC for them that I
think about it, I think actually for Denver and Colorado College,
it's not that far to get to Arizona State. But
(11:31):
doesn't mean I like the bet and Arizona State at
minus won sixty six. Maybe I actually stay away from
this one in terms of picking a team, but I
do like possibly looking at the over just because I
think there's a decent shot at it. That said, both
of these teams do a pretty good job of keeping
the puck out of the net, So maybe five and
(11:51):
a half's a good number.
Speaker 4 (11:52):
And I'm going to correct myself on the fly.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
So when you fly, I think CC has the shortest
drive to the airport, or one of the shortest. If
I remember the layout of Colorado Springs, I.
Speaker 5 (12:03):
Do you know that when they had to go to
Air Force, it's an added like two thousand feet to
go off for a couple of miles.
Speaker 4 (12:08):
You drive a couple of miles and gain two thousand feet. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
I think I've made that trip something like seventeen times
the Air Force, so it'll be eighteen next weekend. My goodness,
We're going to take a break and come back with
more of This episode is sponsored by the NCAAA Men's
Division One Frozen four April tenth and twelfth in Saint Louis.
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Speaker 4 (12:55):
So's frozen fool.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
We're back with usccho edge. We've got a couple of
Eastern games before we get to our pizza money bet,
and that is Yukon versus Quinnipiac. It's in the first
round of the Connecticut Ice Tournament, being held at the
gorgeous Martiri Family Arena at Sacred Heart University. In this one,
(13:20):
the over under is five and a half. Yukon is
plus one twenty Quinnipiac minus one fifty four.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
This is a great matchup At the way these two
teams are playing. There's been times in the year that
both of these teams have just really struggled, and now
the timing of this is perfect that they're going to
face off and Connecticut ice great tournament really rivals.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
It's beginning to rival the bean Pot.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
The fact that they've been able to continue to pull
this tournament off year after year, and I love the
fact that these four schools seem very devoted to it.
But I look at this and either way, it's hard
to pick a winner in this one. Because the Yukon
just had a great weekend up at me, Quinnipiac's been
hard for.
Speaker 3 (14:03):
A couple of weekends.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
I think I would just go with value here, and
Yukon has the better value. It's going to be a
tough victory to get. This is the early game, so
maybe not a lot of atmosphere in the building, not
sure how well Quinnipiac will drive, how many tickets are
going to be available, all of that sort of stuff.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
I'm assuming this.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Will be a sold out event over the two nights.
But in this early game I would go I'd probably
go Quinnipiac over under a five point five.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
I'm gonna lay off that one.
Speaker 5 (14:36):
Yeah, I'm not touching the over under with a ten
foot poll. Right now, Look, ECAC teams. This is my
biggest issue with Quinnipiac being at minus one fifty. ECAC
has not been a good year this year. It has
not been a good league this year. The league is
trending towards one bit. And that's even if Quinnipiac doesn't
(14:56):
win the league. And that's a sense that Quinnipiac right
now is on the bubble the beginning of the season.
Speaker 4 (15:03):
It is well in the past, and they've started to
put things.
Speaker 5 (15:07):
Together in a way that has made them rocketed them
right back to the top of the conference, which to
be fairs natural order being restored. But when you take
Quinnipiac and you take any ECAC team right now out
of ECAC play, the results just aren't there. And most recently,
yes quinnipiec has six to one win over Stonehill, also
(15:30):
at a five to one loss to Northeastern. I think
the general strength of Connecticut, the general strength of a
Hockey East team this year, puts added value into looking
long and hard at Yukon. I think Quinnipiac is a
very good team. I think that they're going to come
(15:52):
along and likely make the run that maybe they haven't
had in the ECAC to a White lock up. I
do also think that Connecticut being a top four or
five Hockey East team, what's them in a stratus fare
right now that the rest of the country can't really touch,
And for that seeing them as an underdog, I'm not
(16:13):
sure that you're going to get much underdog value on
Hockey East teams the rest of the way.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
So Yukon for me, is a good bet here.
Speaker 2 (16:20):
Our next one is a big one in the East,
maybe a preview of the Beanpot Championship on February tenth,
but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Boston College at
Boston University over under on this one is six and
a half. BC is the strong favorite at minus one
point fifty four. BU is plus one twenty at home.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
I'm gonna say the same thing I just said about
Yukon Quinnipiak. These two teams, you've gotten them playing their best.
I'm not sure that BC has had many slumps this year.
Speaker 3 (16:53):
They didn't come.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
Out of the break strong as the guys came back
from World Juniors, as they played their first game in
more than a month. Has gone away they've played. They
just played a great weekend against Providence, So I'm not
that concerned to get about the Eagles, and BU is
playing great hockey right now. They just swept New Hampshire,
coming up a sweep of Vermont before that. They're finding
(17:14):
ways to put goals in. They're limiting the number. All
of their stats are getting better. The area that they
were struggling in penalties take, and that's reduced a little
bit their penalty kill. It's better, I feel right now
we're looking at the best version of BEU.
Speaker 3 (17:31):
I'm gonna go with the Dan Rubin mentality.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
I like home underdogs and right now, be you home
underdog for at least Friday night.
Speaker 5 (17:41):
Give me the terriers eat of this one for me
is look, I've looked at this. I've analyzed this matchup
six ways to sideways, between writing about it, talking about it,
about it on podcasts, talking about it to everyone under
the sun. Outside of the fact that people who weren't
from Massachusetts, this has a lot of attention right now.
Speaker 4 (18:05):
Boston College and Boston University.
Speaker 5 (18:07):
Maybe doesn't have the same hype as last year with
the one verse two matchup, Like Greg Brown admitted that
this week, maybe it doesn't have the same national hype,
but it is a critically important matchup for both teams.
BU is in first place in Hockey East, despite being
behind Boston College in both the national poll and the
pair wise Boston University, who did not play particularly well
(18:31):
at the beginning of the season, they had their rough
patch figured it out in Hockey East play and even
Bu's numbers if you look at the numbers, they have
not been a strong defensive team over the whole season,
but have been very good as of late BC, as
mentioned as Dal started to put things together. I also,
(18:55):
in this kind of matchup, love the fact that these
are two teams that play similar styles. Something that talking
this week to Aiden Hirschuk, he said to me, he
said during media this week that this is we see
a lot of teams try to slow us down, tie
it up in the neutral zone. Bu's not going to
do that. Bu's going to try to go fast and
we got to try to slow them down. And it's
(19:16):
very similar styles. So I think this as much as
we talked about the Minnesota Michigan State series, there's a
little bit of Eastern bias out of me, a little
bit of growing up rooting for BU over BC when
I was a kid, and a little bit of working
for BC. Now, I think this matchup easily the series
of the weekend, and as it always is and green
line rivalry, throw everything out the window.
Speaker 4 (19:39):
Is going to be two sold out buildings the city.
Speaker 5 (19:42):
This might actually be the best hockey that's going to
be played by a Boston team this weekend.
Speaker 4 (19:46):
And I'm including the Bruins there.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
Out not making a pick. Might you have to go there?
Speaker 4 (19:56):
Why do they go there?
Speaker 5 (19:57):
Because I'm not making a pick on this one, because
that would be that's the it's the heart street in me.
But it is the Kirk Curve Street model. But if
I'm gonna if someone's gonna catch catch some flak from me,
it's gonna be the fact that I've sat down and
watched the Bruins far more often than I needed to,
and I am so angry that's traded with them going
(20:18):
straight from BEATCVU on this one, I'm letting it all
hang out. It is not a green line rivalry. For
the record, it is also an orange line rivalry. It
is also a red line rivalry. This goes deep into
the heart of every this matchup. I will say, this
goes deep into the heart of everything that is great
about the Boston hockey complex. I used to that's all.
(20:40):
That's that's I could go on forever about that. No
pick necessary on this one. Just enjoy, sit back and
enjoy the ride.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
If it's any help, Dan, I've been rooting against the
Bruins ever since they fired Jim Montgomery.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
That's fair.
Speaker 4 (20:54):
That's fair. That's very fair.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
And let's go to where a pizza money bet, and
the pizza money one is one where the numbers are
so wide that it's if you got twenty bucks to
put on a game instead of buying a pizza, you
can do this one. It's Denver at Minnesota Duluth, and
it's interesting. Denver, with a couple of games in hand,
still is eight points out of first place in the NCC,
(21:17):
Minnesota Duluth just one behind Denver six and four in conference.
Minnesota Duluth split on the road at CC with a
seven to two win on Friday night. But the over
under on this one is six and a half. Denver
as the road favorite, is minus three point fifteen in
Minnesota Duluth is the home underdog is plus two thirty.
Speaker 4 (21:39):
I this is one of those lines.
Speaker 3 (21:41):
I don't know how you came up with it, and
not you.
Speaker 4 (21:44):
Unless it's moonlighting and we don't know about it.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
Could there be some human factors being considered here that
Denver needs to start playing desperate hockey here to move
themselves up the NCC standings. That's a reason I could
see them shading so heavily. But Denver's on the road.
D Luth is arguably playing better right now than they
have been much of the season. I just feel that
(22:09):
this one is dying. It's calling out for me to
for us to bet on Minnesota du Luth here because
plus two thirty. I know that they're not supposed to
win the game, but they have better odds at winning
the game than plus two thirty.
Speaker 3 (22:27):
They're gonna win more than one out.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
Of every three times in this it's probably somewhere in
the they'd split this series. So I think that's good
value I would take Duluth.
Speaker 3 (22:38):
I would not touch the over under.
Speaker 5 (22:40):
Yeah, I wouldn't touch the over under in this one either.
I think six and a half's a high number to
get to, and Denver average is just under four goals
per game. D Luth averages about three goals allowed per game,
so I can see this easily getting to a six
between the two teams. I also are a five or six,
but six and a half's just a high number to
get to at this point in the season.
Speaker 4 (23:02):
That's for the money line, Dabluth.
Speaker 5 (23:05):
I've been waiting for the Dubooth run for even last
year and the year before I've waited sat on dabout
said they've got something left in them. This is not
a team that's going to finish fifth and sixth in
the NCC every year. And I know the the that
Like when I first started covering teams from the West
and I started watching teams from the West, Tabooth was
(23:28):
the first team I watched. It was at the Frozen
Four they were winning the National Championship. That was one
of the first teams that I really came into into
western college hockey at the time and learned.
Speaker 4 (23:40):
About the style from them.
Speaker 5 (23:41):
So I think there is an element of that is
very good that could take a team like Denver that
we're just looking at and seeing.
Speaker 3 (23:51):
Last year, Denver.
Speaker 5 (23:53):
Was of the four Frozen Four teams I felt was
the fourth one, like the fourth best, and then went
on to win the National championship.
Speaker 1 (24:00):
Yeah, sixteen teams, they were one of the bottom, but
I never thought that Denver was flawed. This year, I'm
starting to think a little bit that Denver is flawed.
I can't quite put my finger on it.
Speaker 5 (24:12):
There's still top four pair wise team, there's still likely
going to be a one or two seed. But once
they got into playing teams that understand them a bit
more and play them more frequently and get into NCCHC play,
there's been something that's missing. And it's hard to fault
them for that because they're defending national champions, their coach
went to the World Juniors like that, it's hard to
fault them. I just there's something about them that is
(24:34):
one of those something just seems off and they've got
to correct it between now and the end of the year.
And so when I see Denver facing a plus two
something on the road south plus two thirty at home,
that seems fire me up some sausage and pepperoni.
Speaker 4 (24:50):
I'm throwing it down. Give me the meat lover. At
that point, I'm good with it.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Let me throw one thing in here. If you flip
your calendar back to twenty twenty four, it was right
about this time last year that Denver got everything straightened
out and went on a role.
Speaker 3 (25:05):
That's correct, that's a really good point.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Yeah, it was this time and that's when they started
they almost changed their mentality. And I won't say for
every game because it really was more toward the postseason
the NCAA Tournament that they became the lockdown defense, but
they I think that they started playing more responsible hockey.
This is a team that we know that they have
the firepower. Now it's just, you know, how do you
(25:32):
compliment that with defense and goaltending. I think that when
they get all of it running together that the same
team as last year this is such a powerhouse.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
With that will wrap things up. This episode has been
sponsored by the NCAA Men's Division One Frozen four April
tenth and twelfth in Saint Louis, Missouri. Get your tickets
now at NCAA dot Com, Slash Frozen four for Jim Connolly,
for Dan Rubin, im Ed Trevsker and this has been
usccho Edge
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My Favorite Murder with Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark
My Favorite Murder is a true crime comedy podcast hosted by Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark. Each week, Karen and Georgia share compelling true crimes and hometown stories from friends and listeners. Since MFM launched in January of 2016, Karen and Georgia have shared their lifelong interest in true crime and have covered stories of infamous serial killers like the Night Stalker, mysterious cold cases, captivating cults, incredible survivor stories and important events from history like the Tulsa race massacre of 1921. My Favorite Murder is part of the Exactly Right podcast network that provides a platform for bold, creative voices to bring to life provocative, entertaining and relatable stories for audiences everywhere. The Exactly Right roster of podcasts covers a variety of topics including historic true crime, comedic interviews and news, science, pop culture and more. Podcasts on the network include Buried Bones with Kate Winkler Dawson and Paul Holes, That's Messed Up: An SVU Podcast, This Podcast Will Kill You, Bananas and more.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.