November 15, 2024 • 34 mins
With lines for Friday unavailable at recording time because of two Thursday night games, USCHO Edge hosts Jim Connelly (@jimmyconnelly), Dan Rubin (@DanRubin12) and Ed Trefzger (@EdTrefzger) take their first look at national championship futures for this season, including an explanation of how futures work.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Speaker 2 (00:34):
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
Welcome to usccho Edge for Friday November fifteenth, twenty twenty four,
and Metrevsker alongside Jim Connolly and Dan Rubin. Now normally
on this we picked five or six games and talk
about the odds for that. The schedule threw us a
curve ball this week. There were two games last night
on Thursday night, so odds for any other games were
(01:05):
not published until after our recording time. Probably are already
out as you're listening to this, but we didn't have
that opportunity. So we're doing what we've done a handful
of times each season, and that is look at futures
and first Jim, why didn't you explain what futures are?
Speaker 2 (01:24):
It's actually probably that maybe the simplest bet you can
make as a gambler. If you believe a team will
win the national championship, you can wager a certain amount
of money on them and usually get pretty good odds
if that team were to win the national championship. Now,
let's think about what you're doing with your money. If
(01:46):
you're a bankroll guy that has to manage their money,
you don't want to overly commit a lot of money
if you're using a legal.
Speaker 4 (01:56):
Sports betting site.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
So we're going to DraftKings, We're going to BETMGS, ban
duel anybody. I don't even know that all these sites
have the future odds out there. We know DraftKings does
you will tie up if you make a bet today
on who will win the national Championship, you're going to
tie up that money until that national Championship game was played,
or until your team doesn't make the tournament.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
You've lost it anyways.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
But if you're hoping to get a return on investment,
it's not going to come quickly.
Speaker 4 (02:27):
All that said, there are a lot of.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
I will say illegal because that's what they are sports
books like the people that run their own books.
Speaker 4 (02:37):
Many of them have apps.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
I can't point you to any one in particular because
they're not easily too easy to find. But if you
have connections where you live and somebody that takes bets,
when they take those wagers, you probably don't have to
settle up until after that team has either been eliminated
from the NCAA field, or until they've lost, or until
they've won the win. Then you get paid off. Some
(03:02):
of those have the same potential payouts. Some have potential
buyouts where and this is something you'll get into. We
can get into too, is most of the modern sports books.
I'm going to go back to that DraftKings, bet, MGM,
any of those sites. If you have a team that
(03:23):
can potentially win the national Championship and you get to
frozen four time, those apps will almost always give you
the option to cash out. You will get less than
what you'd get paid, but you will get a number
that's probably fair for what the through odds are of
your team winning the national championship. When you get to
a frozen four, which technically is one in four, right,
(03:46):
are you going to get more than twenty five percent
of your payout. Sometimes they get to you in the
forty five percent range during the semi finals that into
the championship team you might be at the fifty or
sixty percent range. It makes sense to cash out some
local bookies, let's use the right words, the right term,
they'll actually start to offer that stuff now too. That
(04:08):
all depends on who you bet through where you bet.
But I do have to caution listeners that if you're
going to place a wager today on any of the
legal sports books, whatever you wager, let's say it's one
hundred two hundred one thousand dollars, that will be tied up,
and those will be dollars you cannot access until the
(04:29):
bet has been resolved, and it's resolved by your team
losing and not making the NCAA tournament, losing in the tournament,
or winning the tournament. So there's only three ways to
resolve those bets that they will all take time. So
those are some of the precautionaries of futures. But I
think a lot of people really do like features because
you can make a lot of money on a smaller
(04:52):
bet if you really feel the team that has really
good value use value on this show all the time.
If you know the team that has really good value predicted, right,
you're gonna win a lot of money.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
We're not in any way condoning illegal gambling. No, we're
not like saying hypothetically, yeah, it's just hypothetically. I'm just
telling you that.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
Just know what the ramifications are when you make this wager.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
That's when you're betting, like in the back room at
the barbershop, right, something like that.
Speaker 4 (05:24):
Something like that. Now, Dan, what kind of money do
people put on this?
Speaker 3 (05:29):
I read about people putting huge numbers on Super Bowl
results and things like that, and generally those people that
have huge bets also have huge wads of cash. For
the average person who does a little betting for fun,
what's a reasonable amount put on something like this?
Speaker 5 (05:49):
I think it depends obviously on what you have in
your bik roll and what you're willing to spend. But
the one thing that I've always believed about futures is
that you can tie up a little bit more money
if you're peeling some money off the top of your budget.
So if you go into every week and the biggest
thing that I come back to when it comes to
gambling is never out bet what your budget is. Don't
(06:11):
outstretch yourself and don't overstretch. Gamble responsibly is what the
ad says is so very much in favor of that
you can peel like five bucks off the top if
you want to spend fifty bucks a week or one
hundred bucks or whatever it is, you can peel five
dollars off an over X amount of weeks. That five
dollars extrapolated over X amount of weeks to the end
(06:33):
of the season gets you to a one hundred dollars
bet or a two hundred dollars bet that you're putting
on one.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
Of these teams and it doesn't break your bag.
Speaker 5 (06:41):
The one thing that I believe in futures is that
it almost isn't worth it if you're only going to
slap down a five dollars future bet on a team
that has decent odds. I don't think that it pays
out enough if you're going to take a team that's
a plus seven hundred territory or plus five hundred territory, like,
you're just tying up the money for too long and
(07:03):
there's no real.
Speaker 4 (07:04):
Profit to be made over time with that.
Speaker 5 (07:06):
But if you feel strongly about a team that has
some longer odds, which you will find in this situation.
This is a chance to tie up some money for
longer money over a long period of time. And I
think that's the key in this whole thing, is that
whatever money is being laid down gets tied up and
keeps you invested for the duration of a season, in
a postseason, provided your team makes it.
Speaker 4 (07:28):
Because you're betting on who's going to win the national Championship.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
And maybe you're a fan of a team, right, so
maybe let's say Dartmouth is four and oh right now,
maybe you're a Dartmouth fan and it's plus ten thousand,
you say, okay, maybe I'll put ten bucks or one
hundred bucks down on that because I'm a fan and
I want to root for them to get there.
Speaker 5 (07:45):
It all depends on how serious you want to take
the bet. If you're taking a long shot odds or
longer shot odds because you're a fan, than by all
means pay out something lighter, put lower money down, tie
it up, and if they happen to win the National Championship,
you're going to come out of there with plenty of
pizza money. But if you're serious about who you want
(08:05):
to bet here and if you've done your research, and
we don't typically say to bet the futures early in
the season unless you because the odds shift, unless you
are positive that these are going to be the best
odds that you can get on someone who's going to
win a national champion.
Speaker 4 (08:20):
But we'll talk about that a little bit later.
Speaker 5 (08:22):
So I feel like there is a lot of money
to be made in futures, but you also have to
tie it up for an extended period of time, and
a lot of people aren't happy or comfortable doing it.
Speaker 4 (08:33):
I will say that.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
A lot of gamblers that you see their tickets what
they do with futures. The best future betters will pick
four or five different futures. Let's say maybe it's the
college hockey National Championship, the NBA Championship, the Super Bowl,
and let's just throw in Major League Baseball National champ
(08:57):
your World Series.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Who's going to win the World Series?
Speaker 2 (08:59):
That's really going to be tied up for a long time,
but it's as you check each one off.
Speaker 4 (09:04):
If you get the win.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
Then you're sitting there saying, oh, I'm getting closer, and
those paydays can get really big, like We're talking fifty
dollars to sometimes make fifty thousand or more because the
odds are so wild on all of those four or
five teams in a parlay winning their championships. So we're
(09:26):
seeing tickets come out right now and people saying, I
guess I should cash out because I've got four of
the five legs and I'm not going to get better odds.
The odds of my fifth leg winning aren't very good,
so I'm not going to get better money. I'm not
going to get better value than if I just cash
out right now. So a lot of these sites are
offering those cash outs, and and in that case, you're
(09:47):
only probably taking about twenty percent of your overall payout
unless the team that is in the last spot is
let's say it's the Boston Celtics to win the NBA title.
That's the last one you need. Hey, they're a pretty
heavy favor.
Speaker 4 (10:01):
In the NBA right now.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
That's not going to pay you That one will pay
you out more if you've gotten the first four out
of the five legs of a parlay. Right It's so
complicated once you get into parlays, But I do think
that is usually how people some of the more savvy
betters are making money by combining two or three, four
of these, even five, sometimes trying to hit them all.
(10:26):
And if that on a twenty dollars bat of fifty
dollars bat, sometimes you can make a lot of money.
Speaker 4 (10:33):
Let's talk about some of the actual odds.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
Now, all of these are going to be plus a
number that means you bet one hundred, you will win
whatever that number is plus your one hundred dollars back.
Speaker 4 (10:44):
And let's take the top four to start with.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
These would be hard to argue against at least three
of them. One of them is a slight surprise to me.
So Boston College is number one in this plus four
seventy five, Denver the defending champs, or plus seven hundred,
Minnesota plus nine hundred, And the one that surprises me,
even though they're a very good team, is Maine at
(11:09):
plus one thousand.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
I think that Maine when I saw them, and they
are a very good team when I saw them at
plus one thousand.
Speaker 4 (11:16):
The one thing that.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
Strikes me is that at least inside of DraftKings, somebody
put a big bed in there early, and that is
skewing the odds, and bookmakers will change the odds and
make them better or worse based on how much action
they have.
Speaker 4 (11:33):
Somebody probably put or not won.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Somebody, It could be a lot of somebody's Maine has
one of the most passionate fan bases in the country,
maybe a lot of people up in Maine or fans
of Maine, wherever they are.
Speaker 4 (11:46):
They don't have to be in Maine.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
They they've each thrown a hundred dollars on that, and
if they did that when it was say plus three thousand,
then there's a high liability for the sportsbook.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
So now they're going to reduce the odds.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
Even if they don't believe that team will ever win
the national championship, that sportsbook might change the odds. And
I but all four of those teams, they're sitting right
there in the top ten of the country right now,
so this should be no surprise that they're getting such
good odds or such.
Speaker 4 (12:17):
I guess good.
Speaker 2 (12:18):
Odds and the number of bad odds if you're trying
to bet them. But the I think that right now,
to see BC at four to seventy five Denver at
seven hundred actually surprises me. I thought that Denver would
have had the number one they would have had that
the lowest number on the plus side. I thought that
(12:39):
they would have been somewhere around a plus three fifty.
So I feel like plus seven hundred great value. Just
came off a national championship. They're ten to zero at
this point, haven't lost a game. I know that they're
going to dwn THCHD play it this week, but it's
one of those things that they're going to get in
the field now. It's what they do once they're there,
and they prove lost year they could win.
Speaker 4 (13:01):
So I love those odds. Minnesota plus nine hundred.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
It's a team that's been to a few frozen fours
of late, but Maine is the one that kind of
stands out to me because they haven't been too frozen
fours of late.
Speaker 4 (13:15):
It's been a really long time.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
Actually, they haven't won a national championship since nineteen ninety nine.
That's a really long time as well. So you're talking
about only getting ten to one odds that a team
that we know is pretty good taking. You're putting a
lot of risk there. I don't like the odds on Maine.
I would like them a lot better if they were
plus two thousand plus twenty two hundred. I think plus
(13:37):
one thousand is very low in terms of the value
you're getting on that proposition.
Speaker 5 (13:44):
One of the things about the top four to to
seven teams for me is always that you're still going
to get, in terms of a gambling standpoint, decent odds
on one of them to win a national championship, largely
because we're in the beginning of the season and the
odds haven't shifted to if someone be a minus yet.
(14:04):
Normally the number one team in the country by mid
season has dropped under drop to a minus value, and
you're not going to get as much value there. One
of the other things that I've noticed about these teams
are that because they're you're still going to get plus values,
and because they're one of sixty odd teams, you're able
to gain a bit more value because the likelihood of
(14:27):
them winning the national championship to all of us is
still more likely.
Speaker 4 (14:32):
But also it's still long odds.
Speaker 5 (14:34):
You're one of sixty three that have a shot at
or one of fifty seven.
Speaker 4 (14:38):
Whatever the number is the gift the tournament.
Speaker 5 (14:41):
I say sixty one, but we know that there are
teams that already cannot make the tournament right based on
the Independence sixty.
Speaker 4 (14:50):
Yeah, I was taking even a few more off the top.
Speaker 5 (14:52):
But there are the conferences that we know that probably
aren't making the tournament right now. So to me, when
you look at Denver's at a team like plus seven hundred,
that is better value than what I think you might
get on Denver in the middle of the season. I
also think that you're going to find a lot more
value on teams that maybe aren't your favorites when we
(15:15):
get closer to the end of the season. So right
now we're in a position where you're going to get
decent numbers on those top six to seven teams, especially
the top four. Once we get closer past the holidays,
I think those numbers are going to get pretty low.
I'll see you on some of those teams that are
going to be turned into heavy favorites, and then before
the end of the season, you'll be able to find
a lot of value on teams that aren't them, So
(15:35):
their value is only going to decrease I think as
the year goes on.
Speaker 4 (15:39):
And I do want to.
Speaker 2 (15:40):
Make a point off of what Dan was saying about
teams that can't make the Urn, and obviously there are
three that we know can't they're not eligible. But at
the same time, you have to if you're going to
place a futures bet, you have to almost feel like
that team will make the tournament. That's you have to
go into with that in mind, because if you don't
(16:02):
make the field of sixteen, you just see you throwing
money away. Yes, you might better on a bubble team.
And I'm not trying to pick on anyone here, and
I say that sincerely, what is Alaska Anchorage?
Speaker 4 (16:18):
Are they gonna make a run?
Speaker 2 (16:19):
They don't even have an autobid option at least like
a school like Holy Cross or Bentley Gnecious.
Speaker 4 (16:27):
They're all plus thirty thousand. Yeah, I know that's a long.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
Shot, but at least they can win a tournament and
find a way in. If Alaska Anchorage loses fifteen games,
sixteen games in the course of a season, you can
guarantee they can't make the field. So you're in a
position that you have to look and if you're gonna
throw money on a team here, you have to sit
(16:51):
there and say, can they even make the tournament? And
that's the most important part to my reasoning. If I
were to make these types of bets. I do some
nh NFL futures, number of wins and stuff like that.
I wish college hockey had those futures. You really only
get the most basic futures. There are other leagues, college basketball,
(17:14):
college football, where you're not only betting on who could
win the national championship, or you're betting on will they
make the tournament? Will they even get into the field,
will they in the in basketball? Will they get to
the sweet sixteen? Will they get to the final four?
Those are odds that are out there for those sports.
They don't exist for hockey. Hockey is too small for
(17:34):
any sportsbook to be unwise enough to even offer those wagers.
So I think you have to really just have your
head wrapped around and a team even make it before
you even wager on them.
Speaker 5 (17:48):
And the second part of that is when you say.
Speaker 4 (17:51):
Can a team even make it?
Speaker 5 (17:52):
Is can a team that has an auto bid, while
they might have longer odds or better odds, bet a
team like Anchorage? Realistically, you put it if you're serious.
But now if you're a favan of a team and
you're throwing five bucks down on Yale, go for it
like Yale. Yale has some of the longest odds in
the country. If you're throwing money on Army or Robert
Morris or Ferris State or Brown or one of them,
(18:15):
go for it.
Speaker 4 (18:15):
They might win their conference championship.
Speaker 5 (18:17):
And get after it and get it and get into
the national tournament.
Speaker 4 (18:20):
Get after it and get a chance at it. But
here's the thing.
Speaker 5 (18:23):
If you are almost projected to be a lower seed
in a league that one has multiple bids and two
has multiple teams pressuring like ECAC may have two teams
in the top sixteen already, like looking at at Cornell,
quinnip X usually up there.
Speaker 4 (18:39):
Dartmouth is resurgent this year.
Speaker 5 (18:41):
Harvard is a factor at least two games into the season.
So as the year goes on, as the chasm grows
in some of these leagues, do you really trust that
a team like and RPI can go out and win
ECAC when the top of the league may be better.
It doesn't mean a RPI isn't going to win the league.
Doesn't mean RPI might not go out and win, get
into the top four and have an advantage tagous seed
(19:03):
right now, but right now in November, you're not looking
at certain teams and saying they're gonna win their conference.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
Can I make one more point there too, If you
really love a team that pretty much has to get
in on an autobid, let's say an rit and Aiic, Canacious, Niagara.
He can find some of those teams in the CCHA two.
Speaker 4 (19:26):
You're almost better off if you really love that team.
Speaker 2 (19:30):
Not betting for them to win the national championship, but
if they finally do get into the field, bet them
to win that first game, because you're probably getting five
to eight or better eight to one or even better,
maybe ten to eleven to one odds that they could
win that one single game, as opposed to trying to
say that, oh, not only they are they going to
(19:50):
get in at on kind of a long shot, but
now they're going to win four games. I get it,
But that's you don't get the value at what.
Speaker 4 (20:00):
To one.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
That those numbers should show you where you should not
be placing your money.
Speaker 5 (20:07):
Pearl fifty cents down, Earl fifty cents down. Make it
the chewing gum better the week? Where do you get
gum that cheap?
Speaker 2 (20:14):
I think some of the bazooka is still still in
the ten, fifteen, twenty cent raty.
Speaker 4 (20:18):
Oh wow.
Speaker 3 (20:19):
But we're going to take a break here and come
back with more of the US Echo Edge. We're back
with US Echo Edge. We looked at the top four teams.
The next four all seem pretty likely for the national tournament.
Speaker 4 (20:35):
And just some quick thoughts on that.
Speaker 3 (20:37):
Michigan State and Michigan are both both at twelve hundred
Boston University plus thirteen hundred and North Dakota plus fifteen hundred.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
I would say my favorite in there is Michigan just
because they have been to I believe it's three straight
frozen fours. And when you accomplish that, you have the
experience to know how to get through one, get into.
Speaker 4 (20:59):
The tournament, which I just made a point.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
About to get through your regional and then once they
get there, maybe this is their time. They haven't found
a way to win that national championship. They haven't really
found am I right in saying I think they haven't
gotten through the national semifinal three times in a row.
This is a Michigan team that is probably one of
(21:22):
the more poised teams to get into a tournament. I
do love Michigan State. There's things I like about BU.
They've got to straighten out a lot of things. But
I think there's things I like about them. And then
North Dakota when they're healthy, I like them. I just
don't know. They've been hit by the injury bug here early.
If they get healthy, are they a better team? I
(21:43):
would probably guess yes. That number plus fifteen hundred to
me seems low. I thought they would have been closer
to plus twenty five hundred based on their current record.
But that goes back to the point that you probably
have more noise Dakota fans finding ways to lease some bats,
(22:04):
and thus the liability for the book is already high.
So they're trying to keep the overall plus number of
winning the plus twenty five hundred number to win the
national chair, which they're trying to keep that a little
lower than say a plus thirty five or plus four thousand.
Speaker 5 (22:21):
When I look at some of these teams, the team
that for me is really a I take a look
at it as Boston University.
Speaker 4 (22:28):
I know you just said they have some things to.
Speaker 5 (22:30):
Figure out, but I guess that's the point of kind
of the future's bet of looking at BU right now
as thinking they will figure it out and understanding that
they're likely to get into the tournament, and once you
factor in all of that, they have the talent to
make a run. So plus thirteen hundred for me with
BU is a good number because I think BU is
significantly better than a five and four record. And if
we're overvaluing Maine at plus one thousand, maybe we're undervaluing
(22:53):
BU a bit at plus thirteen hundred. Just given that
Hockey East, if you can, I think they're still good
enough to win the league, and once they get into
the depth of league play as it stands right now
in November, that's where I'm at. And obviously if they
continue to fall back, then their numbers are going to
get a higher odds because they'll slip further away from
(23:14):
being able to get into the tournament.
Speaker 3 (23:16):
When we look at the next four, these are the
teams that would be bubble teams if it was the
end of the year and we were looking at the pairwise,
just based on where they are, Western Michigan at plus
two thousand, Cornell plus twenty two hundred, Saint Cloud's State
plus twenty five hundred, and Colorado College also plus twenty
five hundred.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
I see a lot of good value on Saint Cloud
and Cornell just more experienced teams. Saint Cloud's been to
or frozen four recently. I've been to a national title
game recently. Cornell Mike Schaefer is just a legendary coach
there and this is his last season.
Speaker 4 (23:56):
So I think that.
Speaker 2 (23:59):
If you ever had your players playing a little extra
hard for their coach, this is probably the time. Western
They've been to a couple of tournaments under Pat Firschweiler.
I like that Colorado College they haven't been to the
NCAA tournament quite some time, so I think that is
maybe the one of that quartet that kind of stands out,
(24:21):
And I say maybe, yeah, I'm not sure that I
like even plus twenty five hundred. If there was plus
five thousand, maybe I'd like it. But they are unbeaten
right now. There ain't no perfect thus far, and they've
actually played a couple of NCC games here and there,
So I don't mind that a ton. I just I
(24:41):
like to bet. If I were to make my bets,
I don't bet on college hockey. I gotta keep saying this.
I like to make wagers based on experience, though, and
knowing that a team can handle the pressure because the
pressure of an NCAA tournament is something different. It's not
a conference tournament, it's not an n season. It's very different.
You know that you lose a game, your season's over.
(25:04):
For a lot of guys, you lose a game, your
career is over. So I like experience. Give CC a
couple of tournament spins here. I think Chris Mayo gets
them too. That top four that we just talked about
within five years.
Speaker 5 (25:19):
One of the things about Cornell, and I agree with
you that they gives them a lot of value right now,
is that they are are completely undervalued as an IVY
League school, and there is an inherent bias in numbers,
which I know is very hard to pull off because
the IVY League plays such fewer games, and we've.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
Talked about that on at nauseum.
Speaker 5 (25:41):
The biggest thing about it is that, and this is
one of the things that I've noticed, is that teams
from the IVY League get penalized in the pair wise
because they don't have the same number of wins.
Speaker 4 (25:51):
They don't gather the same amount of pure points.
Speaker 5 (25:55):
So because they don't have the same amount of points
teams like Cornell, it will be lower seeded unless they
have a better winning percentage because they have still a
forget to that certain number of wins, coupled with the
fact that that's a bit of a drag on ECAC
when you factor in that two of the four lower
teams that drag down a bit of their pairwise coefficients
are usually IVY League teams. So let's look at Cornell.
(26:19):
What you mentioned the experience factor. Last year, they went
to the tournament after winning the ECAC postseason, beat Maine
three to one in the first round, and then nearly
beat Denver. They lost two to one to Denver in
a regional final in the Northeast Region in Springfield, but.
Speaker 4 (26:35):
Losing to Denver was losing to a national champion.
Speaker 5 (26:38):
So Cornell has played consistently at that level in their
first four games, and recognizing that as a small sample
size that is largely built on half of those being
against North Dakota, they're fifth in the pairwise right now,
and when we look at their value, that is higher
than some teams with lower value than them. But so
they're better ranked than teams which are getting worse odds,
(27:01):
and plus twenty two hundred to me lines up with
that ECAC is a league that is very wittable for them.
The postseason will allow them to make that run. They're
likely going to finish, based on history, in the top
four and avoid that first round and be able to
work their way through the postseason without any hiccups or
(27:23):
minimal hiccups, get into the.
Speaker 4 (27:24):
National tournament where they've already competed.
Speaker 5 (27:27):
The fact that they have so many returning parts, you
look at that, I think that's a good bet.
Speaker 2 (27:31):
Yeah, And I like the fact that Cornell has historically
been pretty good in that first game of the NCAA tournament. Yes, yes,
I know they getting to the Frozen four is usually
the big step for them. I get that it's not
the easiest listen, and it's a big step for a
ton of teams. But if I ever felt like there
(27:53):
was gonna be a year they could get through that
next game, get to the Frozen four, and then once
you're in a Frozen four, it's I think anything's up
for grabs.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
We've learned that in recent years.
Speaker 2 (28:06):
Ed and I sit at the Frozen four every year
and before the national semifinals we make our predictions of
who's going to win, and I think historically I have
literally lost every national semifinal. I don't pick them well
because I go with favorites, and the favorites don't win.
So once you get to a frozen four, you just
don't know what's going to happen.
Speaker 3 (28:27):
Okay, we got just a couple more minutes left, and
I want to hit on a few teams where the
numbers may be too high or too low, and just
get your quick thoughts in that. Let's do three or
four of them. First one that comes up is Wisconsin
at plus twenty eight hundred. It's no secret the Badgers
are off to a poor start.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
They've started to turn it around. Last weekend against Minnesota
looked better again. I think that might be one where
the numbers skewed by a lot of Wisconsin fans or
people that really believed in them before the season, throwing
down their one hundred or two hundred, and now the
liability is really high, so you can't even though they've
had a lot of early season losses, you can't adjust
(29:10):
that to plus ten thousand because you there's plenty of
people out there that would jump on that, and you
already have some liability on Wisconsin. So books will try
to mitigate a little bit of that by by making
the bet not look as good to most betters.
Speaker 3 (29:26):
About Providence at plus three thousand undervalued, that's very much undervalued.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
Yeah, that should be closer to plus thirteen plus fifteen
hundred somewhere in there they should be. I think that
they should be in the same number as Boston University,
the same league as the easier comp and that would
be is plus thirteen hundred. So I would like to
I think if you want to just go for a
longer shot, Providence is one of the best ones.
Speaker 4 (29:54):
At plus three thousand, that's thirty to one.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
So if you bet two hundred dollars on that, tie
up your two hundred dollars for the season, you have
the chance to make six thousand.
Speaker 4 (30:03):
That's a pretty nice payday.
Speaker 3 (30:05):
Let's look at Arizona's stated plus four thousand.
Speaker 5 (30:09):
I look at Arizona State, and I always found their
number to be a bit misleading because even last year
they were still had their number at a certain level
and it was clear that they were not going to
make the tournament.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
I find them to be a bit overvalued.
Speaker 5 (30:24):
Because I don't think the books in the algorithms have
caught up with the fact that one third a conference
now and they're in the NCCHC, and as we've learned
a bit from last weekend to Colorado College, there there's
going to be some growing pains in there. Granted, the
schedule also prior to that has been brutal, playing Michigan Providence.
Speaker 4 (30:44):
It's just been a tough go of it.
Speaker 5 (30:46):
So I find that number at plus four thousand to
be a bit overvalued because I don't really know if
Arizona State's going to be able to go out and
win enough to make the national tournament with the NCCHC.
Whereas when they were an independent, you were able to
juke the numbers enough to get yourself in the conversation.
I'm not saying that's what their schedule was geared to do,
(31:10):
but you had to know how to get yourself in
the tournament. Greg Powers was able to do that. In
the NCCHC, it's going to be a lot harder. So
I'm not sure if this year is going to be
good enough for them. Maybe push that one off into
the future future bet Now, I see the difficulty.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
Of the NCCHC is what keeps them from really making
a tournament run. So I don't see the value if
I had to put my own number on that, I
would have it closer to plus sixty five hundred two more.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
The top team in the odds in the CCHA is
Minnesota State at five thousand.
Speaker 4 (31:42):
Probably that's a little bit historical.
Speaker 2 (31:45):
I'm not sure that I think the CCHA is an
up for grabs league. To be honest with you, I
think there's a lot of teams that can win that.
Bookmakers know that if you look at the past eight seasons,
Minnesota State has had one of the best winning to
the country. So bookmakers will go with that, But I'm
not sure that they really dig deep enough. A lot
(32:10):
of it's so AI based. They don't think about coaching
changes and stuff like that. They don't think about players leaving,
They don't look at the transfer portal. AI can only
do so much that one feels like it's a little
AI based, So I think they're I would have had
that value probably closer to seventy five hundred, and I
think I would have had them yeah, and that would
have Actually I just realized that it would have put
(32:31):
them exactly the same number as for Midgie, which I
think is probably the team that they're in the biggest
competition with to win the CCHA.
Speaker 5 (32:39):
Yeah, and for me and Matt grouping UMass Bowls the
same plus seventy five hundred.
Speaker 4 (32:43):
That's a team that I like, but I don't know
I'm putting.
Speaker 5 (32:47):
Them in with Minnesota State lumping them all, even though
what was clearly an Eastern team.
Speaker 3 (32:52):
That was where I was going to go next. Is
that one a really good value there?
Speaker 4 (32:56):
It could be. There's six and two.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
Their biggest win comes last Friday over Boston University, but
then the next night they turned around and did not
play very well against BU. I think that if you
want to make an early season bet, and you want
to keep it small, fifty dollars, one hundred dollars, there's
a lot of value for the river Hawks right now.
They are one of the considered one of the better
teams in the country. They're up to number fifteen in
(33:22):
our pol The whole thing is, again, will they make
the field. They've got to stay consistent throughout the season.
They had a good start in non conference play. That
helps a lot, but they've got to find ways. They
have two in season tournaments. I believe they've got to
find a way to go three and one or four
and zero in those to make sure that they've solidified
that non conference mark, and then they can probably post
(33:45):
a little above five hundred in Hockey East and they'll
be fined to get in. Then once you're there, norm
bays in teams in the tournament are pretty incredible in.
Speaker 4 (33:53):
The first game.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
They've only won that regional semi twice, came close a
couple of times as well, but they've only made one
Frozen four.
Speaker 4 (34:02):
So that's the other part of it.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
Again, if you're gonna put put any money on some
of these teams, just feel confident that they're going to
have a chance to get through their conference, get through
the regional, and get to a Frozen four.
Speaker 3 (34:18):
That's going to wrap up our look for this week.
We'll probably do this again around semester break when the
game schedule is lighter for Jim Conley, for Dan Rubin,
imed Trefsker.
Speaker 4 (34:28):
And this has been us E h O hedge
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Speaker 2 (00:34):
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
Welcome to usccho Edge for Friday November fifteenth, twenty twenty four,
and Metrevsker alongside Jim Connolly and Dan Rubin. Now normally
on this we picked five or six games and talk
about the odds for that. The schedule threw us a
curve ball this week. There were two games last night
on Thursday night, so odds for any other games were
(01:05):
not published until after our recording time. Probably are already
out as you're listening to this, but we didn't have
that opportunity. So we're doing what we've done a handful
of times each season, and that is look at futures
and first Jim, why didn't you explain what futures are?
Speaker 2 (01:24):
It's actually probably that maybe the simplest bet you can
make as a gambler. If you believe a team will
win the national championship, you can wager a certain amount
of money on them and usually get pretty good odds
if that team were to win the national championship. Now,
let's think about what you're doing with your money. If
(01:46):
you're a bankroll guy that has to manage their money,
you don't want to overly commit a lot of money
if you're using a legal.
Speaker 4 (01:56):
Sports betting site.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
So we're going to DraftKings, We're going to BETMGS, ban
duel anybody. I don't even know that all these sites
have the future odds out there. We know DraftKings does
you will tie up if you make a bet today
on who will win the national Championship, you're going to
tie up that money until that national Championship game was played,
or until your team doesn't make the tournament.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
You've lost it anyways.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
But if you're hoping to get a return on investment,
it's not going to come quickly.
Speaker 4 (02:27):
All that said, there are a lot of.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
I will say illegal because that's what they are sports
books like the people that run their own books.
Speaker 4 (02:37):
Many of them have apps.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
I can't point you to any one in particular because
they're not easily too easy to find. But if you
have connections where you live and somebody that takes bets,
when they take those wagers, you probably don't have to
settle up until after that team has either been eliminated
from the NCAA field, or until they've lost, or until
they've won the win. Then you get paid off. Some
(03:02):
of those have the same potential payouts. Some have potential
buyouts where and this is something you'll get into. We
can get into too, is most of the modern sports books.
I'm going to go back to that DraftKings, bet, MGM,
any of those sites. If you have a team that
(03:23):
can potentially win the national Championship and you get to
frozen four time, those apps will almost always give you
the option to cash out. You will get less than
what you'd get paid, but you will get a number
that's probably fair for what the through odds are of
your team winning the national championship. When you get to
a frozen four, which technically is one in four, right,
(03:46):
are you going to get more than twenty five percent
of your payout. Sometimes they get to you in the
forty five percent range during the semi finals that into
the championship team you might be at the fifty or
sixty percent range. It makes sense to cash out some
local bookies, let's use the right words, the right term,
they'll actually start to offer that stuff now too. That
(04:08):
all depends on who you bet through where you bet.
But I do have to caution listeners that if you're
going to place a wager today on any of the
legal sports books, whatever you wager, let's say it's one
hundred two hundred one thousand dollars, that will be tied up,
and those will be dollars you cannot access until the
(04:29):
bet has been resolved, and it's resolved by your team
losing and not making the NCAA tournament, losing in the tournament,
or winning the tournament. So there's only three ways to
resolve those bets that they will all take time. So
those are some of the precautionaries of futures. But I
think a lot of people really do like features because
you can make a lot of money on a smaller
(04:52):
bet if you really feel the team that has really
good value use value on this show all the time.
If you know the team that has really good value predicted, right,
you're gonna win a lot of money.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
We're not in any way condoning illegal gambling. No, we're
not like saying hypothetically, yeah, it's just hypothetically. I'm just
telling you that.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
Just know what the ramifications are when you make this wager.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
That's when you're betting, like in the back room at
the barbershop, right, something like that.
Speaker 4 (05:24):
Something like that. Now, Dan, what kind of money do
people put on this?
Speaker 3 (05:29):
I read about people putting huge numbers on Super Bowl
results and things like that, and generally those people that
have huge bets also have huge wads of cash. For
the average person who does a little betting for fun,
what's a reasonable amount put on something like this?
Speaker 5 (05:49):
I think it depends obviously on what you have in
your bik roll and what you're willing to spend. But
the one thing that I've always believed about futures is
that you can tie up a little bit more money
if you're peeling some money off the top of your budget.
So if you go into every week and the biggest
thing that I come back to when it comes to
gambling is never out bet what your budget is. Don't
(06:11):
outstretch yourself and don't overstretch. Gamble responsibly is what the
ad says is so very much in favor of that
you can peel like five bucks off the top if
you want to spend fifty bucks a week or one
hundred bucks or whatever it is, you can peel five
dollars off an over X amount of weeks. That five
dollars extrapolated over X amount of weeks to the end
(06:33):
of the season gets you to a one hundred dollars
bet or a two hundred dollars bet that you're putting
on one.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
Of these teams and it doesn't break your bag.
Speaker 5 (06:41):
The one thing that I believe in futures is that
it almost isn't worth it if you're only going to
slap down a five dollars future bet on a team
that has decent odds. I don't think that it pays
out enough if you're going to take a team that's
a plus seven hundred territory or plus five hundred territory, like,
you're just tying up the money for too long and
(07:03):
there's no real.
Speaker 4 (07:04):
Profit to be made over time with that.
Speaker 5 (07:06):
But if you feel strongly about a team that has
some longer odds, which you will find in this situation.
This is a chance to tie up some money for
longer money over a long period of time. And I
think that's the key in this whole thing, is that
whatever money is being laid down gets tied up and
keeps you invested for the duration of a season, in
a postseason, provided your team makes it.
Speaker 4 (07:28):
Because you're betting on who's going to win the national Championship.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
And maybe you're a fan of a team, right, so
maybe let's say Dartmouth is four and oh right now,
maybe you're a Dartmouth fan and it's plus ten thousand,
you say, okay, maybe I'll put ten bucks or one
hundred bucks down on that because I'm a fan and
I want to root for them to get there.
Speaker 5 (07:45):
It all depends on how serious you want to take
the bet. If you're taking a long shot odds or
longer shot odds because you're a fan, than by all
means pay out something lighter, put lower money down, tie
it up, and if they happen to win the National Championship,
you're going to come out of there with plenty of
pizza money. But if you're serious about who you want
(08:05):
to bet here and if you've done your research, and
we don't typically say to bet the futures early in
the season unless you because the odds shift, unless you
are positive that these are going to be the best
odds that you can get on someone who's going to
win a national champion.
Speaker 4 (08:20):
But we'll talk about that a little bit later.
Speaker 5 (08:22):
So I feel like there is a lot of money
to be made in futures, but you also have to
tie it up for an extended period of time, and
a lot of people aren't happy or comfortable doing it.
Speaker 4 (08:33):
I will say that.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
A lot of gamblers that you see their tickets what
they do with futures. The best future betters will pick
four or five different futures. Let's say maybe it's the
college hockey National Championship, the NBA Championship, the Super Bowl,
and let's just throw in Major League Baseball National champ
(08:57):
your World Series.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Who's going to win the World Series?
Speaker 2 (08:59):
That's really going to be tied up for a long time,
but it's as you check each one off.
Speaker 4 (09:04):
If you get the win.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
Then you're sitting there saying, oh, I'm getting closer, and
those paydays can get really big, like We're talking fifty
dollars to sometimes make fifty thousand or more because the
odds are so wild on all of those four or
five teams in a parlay winning their championships. So we're
(09:26):
seeing tickets come out right now and people saying, I
guess I should cash out because I've got four of
the five legs and I'm not going to get better odds.
The odds of my fifth leg winning aren't very good,
so I'm not going to get better money. I'm not
going to get better value than if I just cash
out right now. So a lot of these sites are
offering those cash outs, and and in that case, you're
(09:47):
only probably taking about twenty percent of your overall payout
unless the team that is in the last spot is
let's say it's the Boston Celtics to win the NBA title.
That's the last one you need. Hey, they're a pretty
heavy favor.
Speaker 4 (10:01):
In the NBA right now.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
That's not going to pay you That one will pay
you out more if you've gotten the first four out
of the five legs of a parlay. Right It's so
complicated once you get into parlays, But I do think
that is usually how people some of the more savvy
betters are making money by combining two or three, four
of these, even five, sometimes trying to hit them all.
(10:26):
And if that on a twenty dollars bat of fifty
dollars bat, sometimes you can make a lot of money.
Speaker 4 (10:33):
Let's talk about some of the actual odds.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
Now, all of these are going to be plus a
number that means you bet one hundred, you will win
whatever that number is plus your one hundred dollars back.
Speaker 4 (10:44):
And let's take the top four to start with.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
These would be hard to argue against at least three
of them. One of them is a slight surprise to me.
So Boston College is number one in this plus four
seventy five, Denver the defending champs, or plus seven hundred,
Minnesota plus nine hundred, And the one that surprises me,
even though they're a very good team, is Maine at
(11:09):
plus one thousand.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
I think that Maine when I saw them, and they
are a very good team when I saw them at
plus one thousand.
Speaker 4 (11:16):
The one thing that.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
Strikes me is that at least inside of DraftKings, somebody
put a big bed in there early, and that is
skewing the odds, and bookmakers will change the odds and
make them better or worse based on how much action
they have.
Speaker 4 (11:33):
Somebody probably put or not won.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Somebody, It could be a lot of somebody's Maine has
one of the most passionate fan bases in the country,
maybe a lot of people up in Maine or fans
of Maine, wherever they are.
Speaker 4 (11:46):
They don't have to be in Maine.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
They they've each thrown a hundred dollars on that, and
if they did that when it was say plus three thousand,
then there's a high liability for the sportsbook.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
So now they're going to reduce the odds.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
Even if they don't believe that team will ever win
the national championship, that sportsbook might change the odds. And
I but all four of those teams, they're sitting right
there in the top ten of the country right now,
so this should be no surprise that they're getting such
good odds or such.
Speaker 4 (12:17):
I guess good.
Speaker 2 (12:18):
Odds and the number of bad odds if you're trying
to bet them. But the I think that right now,
to see BC at four to seventy five Denver at
seven hundred actually surprises me. I thought that Denver would
have had the number one they would have had that
the lowest number on the plus side. I thought that
(12:39):
they would have been somewhere around a plus three fifty.
So I feel like plus seven hundred great value. Just
came off a national championship. They're ten to zero at
this point, haven't lost a game. I know that they're
going to dwn THCHD play it this week, but it's
one of those things that they're going to get in
the field now. It's what they do once they're there,
and they prove lost year they could win.
Speaker 4 (13:01):
So I love those odds. Minnesota plus nine hundred.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
It's a team that's been to a few frozen fours
of late, but Maine is the one that kind of
stands out to me because they haven't been too frozen
fours of late.
Speaker 4 (13:15):
It's been a really long time.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
Actually, they haven't won a national championship since nineteen ninety nine.
That's a really long time as well. So you're talking
about only getting ten to one odds that a team
that we know is pretty good taking. You're putting a
lot of risk there. I don't like the odds on Maine.
I would like them a lot better if they were
plus two thousand plus twenty two hundred. I think plus
(13:37):
one thousand is very low in terms of the value
you're getting on that proposition.
Speaker 5 (13:44):
One of the things about the top four to to
seven teams for me is always that you're still going
to get, in terms of a gambling standpoint, decent odds
on one of them to win a national championship, largely
because we're in the beginning of the season and the
odds haven't shifted to if someone be a minus yet.
(14:04):
Normally the number one team in the country by mid
season has dropped under drop to a minus value, and
you're not going to get as much value there. One
of the other things that I've noticed about these teams
are that because they're you're still going to get plus values,
and because they're one of sixty odd teams, you're able
to gain a bit more value because the likelihood of
(14:27):
them winning the national championship to all of us is
still more likely.
Speaker 4 (14:32):
But also it's still long odds.
Speaker 5 (14:34):
You're one of sixty three that have a shot at
or one of fifty seven.
Speaker 4 (14:38):
Whatever the number is the gift the tournament.
Speaker 5 (14:41):
I say sixty one, but we know that there are
teams that already cannot make the tournament right based on
the Independence sixty.
Speaker 4 (14:50):
Yeah, I was taking even a few more off the top.
Speaker 5 (14:52):
But there are the conferences that we know that probably
aren't making the tournament right now. So to me, when
you look at Denver's at a team like plus seven hundred,
that is better value than what I think you might
get on Denver in the middle of the season. I
also think that you're going to find a lot more
value on teams that maybe aren't your favorites when we
(15:15):
get closer to the end of the season. So right
now we're in a position where you're going to get
decent numbers on those top six to seven teams, especially
the top four. Once we get closer past the holidays,
I think those numbers are going to get pretty low.
I'll see you on some of those teams that are
going to be turned into heavy favorites, and then before
the end of the season, you'll be able to find
a lot of value on teams that aren't them, So
(15:35):
their value is only going to decrease I think as
the year goes on.
Speaker 4 (15:39):
And I do want to.
Speaker 2 (15:40):
Make a point off of what Dan was saying about
teams that can't make the Urn, and obviously there are
three that we know can't they're not eligible. But at
the same time, you have to if you're going to
place a futures bet, you have to almost feel like
that team will make the tournament. That's you have to
go into with that in mind, because if you don't
(16:02):
make the field of sixteen, you just see you throwing
money away. Yes, you might better on a bubble team.
And I'm not trying to pick on anyone here, and
I say that sincerely, what is Alaska Anchorage?
Speaker 4 (16:18):
Are they gonna make a run?
Speaker 2 (16:19):
They don't even have an autobid option at least like
a school like Holy Cross or Bentley Gnecious.
Speaker 4 (16:27):
They're all plus thirty thousand. Yeah, I know that's a long.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
Shot, but at least they can win a tournament and
find a way in. If Alaska Anchorage loses fifteen games,
sixteen games in the course of a season, you can
guarantee they can't make the field. So you're in a
position that you have to look and if you're gonna
throw money on a team here, you have to sit
(16:51):
there and say, can they even make the tournament? And
that's the most important part to my reasoning. If I
were to make these types of bets. I do some
nh NFL futures, number of wins and stuff like that.
I wish college hockey had those futures. You really only
get the most basic futures. There are other leagues, college basketball,
(17:14):
college football, where you're not only betting on who could
win the national championship, or you're betting on will they
make the tournament? Will they even get into the field,
will they in the in basketball? Will they get to
the sweet sixteen? Will they get to the final four?
Those are odds that are out there for those sports.
They don't exist for hockey. Hockey is too small for
(17:34):
any sportsbook to be unwise enough to even offer those wagers.
So I think you have to really just have your
head wrapped around and a team even make it before
you even wager on them.
Speaker 5 (17:48):
And the second part of that is when you say.
Speaker 4 (17:51):
Can a team even make it?
Speaker 5 (17:52):
Is can a team that has an auto bid, while
they might have longer odds or better odds, bet a
team like Anchorage? Realistically, you put it if you're serious.
But now if you're a favan of a team and
you're throwing five bucks down on Yale, go for it
like Yale. Yale has some of the longest odds in
the country. If you're throwing money on Army or Robert
Morris or Ferris State or Brown or one of them,
(18:15):
go for it.
Speaker 4 (18:15):
They might win their conference championship.
Speaker 5 (18:17):
And get after it and get it and get into
the national tournament.
Speaker 4 (18:20):
Get after it and get a chance at it. But
here's the thing.
Speaker 5 (18:23):
If you are almost projected to be a lower seed
in a league that one has multiple bids and two
has multiple teams pressuring like ECAC may have two teams
in the top sixteen already, like looking at at Cornell,
quinnip X usually up there.
Speaker 4 (18:39):
Dartmouth is resurgent this year.
Speaker 5 (18:41):
Harvard is a factor at least two games into the season.
So as the year goes on, as the chasm grows
in some of these leagues, do you really trust that
a team like and RPI can go out and win
ECAC when the top of the league may be better.
It doesn't mean a RPI isn't going to win the league.
Doesn't mean RPI might not go out and win, get
into the top four and have an advantage tagous seed
(19:03):
right now, but right now in November, you're not looking
at certain teams and saying they're gonna win their conference.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
Can I make one more point there too, If you
really love a team that pretty much has to get
in on an autobid, let's say an rit and Aiic, Canacious, Niagara.
He can find some of those teams in the CCHA two.
Speaker 4 (19:26):
You're almost better off if you really love that team.
Speaker 2 (19:30):
Not betting for them to win the national championship, but
if they finally do get into the field, bet them
to win that first game, because you're probably getting five
to eight or better eight to one or even better,
maybe ten to eleven to one odds that they could
win that one single game, as opposed to trying to
say that, oh, not only they are they going to
(19:50):
get in at on kind of a long shot, but
now they're going to win four games. I get it,
But that's you don't get the value at what.
Speaker 4 (20:00):
To one.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
That those numbers should show you where you should not
be placing your money.
Speaker 5 (20:07):
Pearl fifty cents down, Earl fifty cents down. Make it
the chewing gum better the week? Where do you get
gum that cheap?
Speaker 2 (20:14):
I think some of the bazooka is still still in
the ten, fifteen, twenty cent raty.
Speaker 4 (20:18):
Oh wow.
Speaker 3 (20:19):
But we're going to take a break here and come
back with more of the US Echo Edge. We're back
with US Echo Edge. We looked at the top four teams.
The next four all seem pretty likely for the national tournament.
Speaker 4 (20:35):
And just some quick thoughts on that.
Speaker 3 (20:37):
Michigan State and Michigan are both both at twelve hundred
Boston University plus thirteen hundred and North Dakota plus fifteen hundred.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
I would say my favorite in there is Michigan just
because they have been to I believe it's three straight
frozen fours. And when you accomplish that, you have the
experience to know how to get through one, get into.
Speaker 4 (20:59):
The tournament, which I just made a point.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
About to get through your regional and then once they
get there, maybe this is their time. They haven't found
a way to win that national championship. They haven't really
found am I right in saying I think they haven't
gotten through the national semifinal three times in a row.
This is a Michigan team that is probably one of
(21:22):
the more poised teams to get into a tournament. I
do love Michigan State. There's things I like about BU.
They've got to straighten out a lot of things. But
I think there's things I like about them. And then
North Dakota when they're healthy, I like them. I just
don't know. They've been hit by the injury bug here early.
If they get healthy, are they a better team? I
(21:43):
would probably guess yes. That number plus fifteen hundred to
me seems low. I thought they would have been closer
to plus twenty five hundred based on their current record.
But that goes back to the point that you probably
have more noise Dakota fans finding ways to lease some bats,
(22:04):
and thus the liability for the book is already high.
So they're trying to keep the overall plus number of
winning the plus twenty five hundred number to win the
national chair, which they're trying to keep that a little
lower than say a plus thirty five or plus four thousand.
Speaker 5 (22:21):
When I look at some of these teams, the team
that for me is really a I take a look
at it as Boston University.
Speaker 4 (22:28):
I know you just said they have some things to.
Speaker 5 (22:30):
Figure out, but I guess that's the point of kind
of the future's bet of looking at BU right now
as thinking they will figure it out and understanding that
they're likely to get into the tournament, and once you
factor in all of that, they have the talent to
make a run. So plus thirteen hundred for me with
BU is a good number because I think BU is
significantly better than a five and four record. And if
we're overvaluing Maine at plus one thousand, maybe we're undervaluing
(22:53):
BU a bit at plus thirteen hundred. Just given that
Hockey East, if you can, I think they're still good
enough to win the league, and once they get into
the depth of league play as it stands right now
in November, that's where I'm at. And obviously if they
continue to fall back, then their numbers are going to
get a higher odds because they'll slip further away from
(23:14):
being able to get into the tournament.
Speaker 3 (23:16):
When we look at the next four, these are the
teams that would be bubble teams if it was the
end of the year and we were looking at the pairwise,
just based on where they are, Western Michigan at plus
two thousand, Cornell plus twenty two hundred, Saint Cloud's State
plus twenty five hundred, and Colorado College also plus twenty
five hundred.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
I see a lot of good value on Saint Cloud
and Cornell just more experienced teams. Saint Cloud's been to
or frozen four recently. I've been to a national title
game recently. Cornell Mike Schaefer is just a legendary coach
there and this is his last season.
Speaker 4 (23:56):
So I think that.
Speaker 2 (23:59):
If you ever had your players playing a little extra
hard for their coach, this is probably the time. Western
They've been to a couple of tournaments under Pat Firschweiler.
I like that Colorado College they haven't been to the
NCAA tournament quite some time, so I think that is
maybe the one of that quartet that kind of stands out,
(24:21):
And I say maybe, yeah, I'm not sure that I
like even plus twenty five hundred. If there was plus
five thousand, maybe I'd like it. But they are unbeaten
right now. There ain't no perfect thus far, and they've
actually played a couple of NCC games here and there,
So I don't mind that a ton. I just I
(24:41):
like to bet. If I were to make my bets,
I don't bet on college hockey. I gotta keep saying this.
I like to make wagers based on experience, though, and
knowing that a team can handle the pressure because the
pressure of an NCAA tournament is something different. It's not
a conference tournament, it's not an n season. It's very different.
You know that you lose a game, your season's over.
(25:04):
For a lot of guys, you lose a game, your
career is over. So I like experience. Give CC a
couple of tournament spins here. I think Chris Mayo gets
them too. That top four that we just talked about
within five years.
Speaker 5 (25:19):
One of the things about Cornell, and I agree with
you that they gives them a lot of value right now,
is that they are are completely undervalued as an IVY
League school, and there is an inherent bias in numbers,
which I know is very hard to pull off because
the IVY League plays such fewer games, and we've.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
Talked about that on at nauseum.
Speaker 5 (25:41):
The biggest thing about it is that, and this is
one of the things that I've noticed, is that teams
from the IVY League get penalized in the pair wise
because they don't have the same number of wins.
Speaker 4 (25:51):
They don't gather the same amount of pure points.
Speaker 5 (25:55):
So because they don't have the same amount of points
teams like Cornell, it will be lower seeded unless they
have a better winning percentage because they have still a
forget to that certain number of wins, coupled with the
fact that that's a bit of a drag on ECAC
when you factor in that two of the four lower
teams that drag down a bit of their pairwise coefficients
are usually IVY League teams. So let's look at Cornell.
(26:19):
What you mentioned the experience factor. Last year, they went
to the tournament after winning the ECAC postseason, beat Maine
three to one in the first round, and then nearly
beat Denver. They lost two to one to Denver in
a regional final in the Northeast Region in Springfield, but.
Speaker 4 (26:35):
Losing to Denver was losing to a national champion.
Speaker 5 (26:38):
So Cornell has played consistently at that level in their
first four games, and recognizing that as a small sample
size that is largely built on half of those being
against North Dakota, they're fifth in the pairwise right now,
and when we look at their value, that is higher
than some teams with lower value than them. But so
they're better ranked than teams which are getting worse odds,
(27:01):
and plus twenty two hundred to me lines up with
that ECAC is a league that is very wittable for them.
The postseason will allow them to make that run. They're
likely going to finish, based on history, in the top
four and avoid that first round and be able to
work their way through the postseason without any hiccups or
(27:23):
minimal hiccups, get into the.
Speaker 4 (27:24):
National tournament where they've already competed.
Speaker 5 (27:27):
The fact that they have so many returning parts, you
look at that, I think that's a good bet.
Speaker 2 (27:31):
Yeah, And I like the fact that Cornell has historically
been pretty good in that first game of the NCAA tournament. Yes, yes,
I know they getting to the Frozen four is usually
the big step for them. I get that it's not
the easiest listen, and it's a big step for a
ton of teams. But if I ever felt like there
(27:53):
was gonna be a year they could get through that
next game, get to the Frozen four, and then once
you're in a Frozen four, it's I think anything's up
for grabs.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
We've learned that in recent years.
Speaker 2 (28:06):
Ed and I sit at the Frozen four every year
and before the national semifinals we make our predictions of
who's going to win, and I think historically I have
literally lost every national semifinal. I don't pick them well
because I go with favorites, and the favorites don't win.
So once you get to a frozen four, you just
don't know what's going to happen.
Speaker 3 (28:27):
Okay, we got just a couple more minutes left, and
I want to hit on a few teams where the
numbers may be too high or too low, and just
get your quick thoughts in that. Let's do three or
four of them. First one that comes up is Wisconsin
at plus twenty eight hundred. It's no secret the Badgers
are off to a poor start.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
They've started to turn it around. Last weekend against Minnesota
looked better again. I think that might be one where
the numbers skewed by a lot of Wisconsin fans or
people that really believed in them before the season, throwing
down their one hundred or two hundred, and now the
liability is really high, so you can't even though they've
had a lot of early season losses, you can't adjust
(29:10):
that to plus ten thousand because you there's plenty of
people out there that would jump on that, and you
already have some liability on Wisconsin. So books will try
to mitigate a little bit of that by by making
the bet not look as good to most betters.
Speaker 3 (29:26):
About Providence at plus three thousand undervalued, that's very much undervalued.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
Yeah, that should be closer to plus thirteen plus fifteen
hundred somewhere in there they should be. I think that
they should be in the same number as Boston University,
the same league as the easier comp and that would
be is plus thirteen hundred. So I would like to
I think if you want to just go for a
longer shot, Providence is one of the best ones.
Speaker 4 (29:54):
At plus three thousand, that's thirty to one.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
So if you bet two hundred dollars on that, tie
up your two hundred dollars for the season, you have
the chance to make six thousand.
Speaker 4 (30:03):
That's a pretty nice payday.
Speaker 3 (30:05):
Let's look at Arizona's stated plus four thousand.
Speaker 5 (30:09):
I look at Arizona State, and I always found their
number to be a bit misleading because even last year
they were still had their number at a certain level
and it was clear that they were not going to
make the tournament.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
I find them to be a bit overvalued.
Speaker 5 (30:24):
Because I don't think the books in the algorithms have
caught up with the fact that one third a conference
now and they're in the NCCHC, and as we've learned
a bit from last weekend to Colorado College, there there's
going to be some growing pains in there. Granted, the
schedule also prior to that has been brutal, playing Michigan Providence.
Speaker 4 (30:44):
It's just been a tough go of it.
Speaker 5 (30:46):
So I find that number at plus four thousand to
be a bit overvalued because I don't really know if
Arizona State's going to be able to go out and
win enough to make the national tournament with the NCCHC.
Whereas when they were an independent, you were able to
juke the numbers enough to get yourself in the conversation.
I'm not saying that's what their schedule was geared to do,
(31:10):
but you had to know how to get yourself in
the tournament. Greg Powers was able to do that. In
the NCCHC, it's going to be a lot harder. So
I'm not sure if this year is going to be
good enough for them. Maybe push that one off into
the future future bet Now, I see the difficulty.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
Of the NCCHC is what keeps them from really making
a tournament run. So I don't see the value if
I had to put my own number on that, I
would have it closer to plus sixty five hundred two more.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
The top team in the odds in the CCHA is
Minnesota State at five thousand.
Speaker 4 (31:42):
Probably that's a little bit historical.
Speaker 2 (31:45):
I'm not sure that I think the CCHA is an
up for grabs league. To be honest with you, I
think there's a lot of teams that can win that.
Bookmakers know that if you look at the past eight seasons,
Minnesota State has had one of the best winning to
the country. So bookmakers will go with that, But I'm
not sure that they really dig deep enough. A lot
(32:10):
of it's so AI based. They don't think about coaching
changes and stuff like that. They don't think about players leaving,
They don't look at the transfer portal. AI can only
do so much that one feels like it's a little
AI based, So I think they're I would have had
that value probably closer to seventy five hundred, and I
think I would have had them yeah, and that would
have Actually I just realized that it would have put
(32:31):
them exactly the same number as for Midgie, which I
think is probably the team that they're in the biggest
competition with to win the CCHA.
Speaker 5 (32:39):
Yeah, and for me and Matt grouping UMass Bowls the
same plus seventy five hundred.
Speaker 4 (32:43):
That's a team that I like, but I don't know
I'm putting.
Speaker 5 (32:47):
Them in with Minnesota State lumping them all, even though
what was clearly an Eastern team.
Speaker 3 (32:52):
That was where I was going to go next. Is
that one a really good value there?
Speaker 4 (32:56):
It could be. There's six and two.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
Their biggest win comes last Friday over Boston University, but
then the next night they turned around and did not
play very well against BU. I think that if you
want to make an early season bet, and you want
to keep it small, fifty dollars, one hundred dollars, there's
a lot of value for the river Hawks right now.
They are one of the considered one of the better
teams in the country. They're up to number fifteen in
(33:22):
our pol The whole thing is, again, will they make
the field. They've got to stay consistent throughout the season.
They had a good start in non conference play. That
helps a lot, but they've got to find ways. They
have two in season tournaments. I believe they've got to
find a way to go three and one or four
and zero in those to make sure that they've solidified
that non conference mark, and then they can probably post
(33:45):
a little above five hundred in Hockey East and they'll
be fined to get in. Then once you're there, norm
bays in teams in the tournament are pretty incredible in.
Speaker 4 (33:53):
The first game.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
They've only won that regional semi twice, came close a
couple of times as well, but they've only made one
Frozen four.
Speaker 4 (34:02):
So that's the other part of it.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
Again, if you're gonna put put any money on some
of these teams, just feel confident that they're going to
have a chance to get through their conference, get through
the regional, and get to a Frozen four.
Speaker 3 (34:18):
That's going to wrap up our look for this week.
We'll probably do this again around semester break when the
game schedule is lighter for Jim Conley, for Dan Rubin,
imed Trefsker.
Speaker 4 (34:28):
And this has been us E h O hedge
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