Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to usccho Edge for Friday, October twenty fourth, twenty
twenty five. I'm at trefskir alongside Jim Connolly and Dan Rubin.
It's our show where we look at betting odds for
college hockey. We got some interesting stuff to talk about
in the second segment, but why don't we jump right
in again. Some great non conference and region across region
(00:36):
type games. And the first one on our list is
number seven Denver at number nine Boston College. Over under
on this one is six and a half. Denver is
a slight underdog at plus one hundred, Boston College the
home favorite at minus one point thirty.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
That's just a pick them. You know, you're basically giving
BC a slight advantage on the fact that they're hold.
This is a really great early season game. Yet again,
I think we've said that now for three straight weeks,
and that's just you know, the schedule makers are doing
a good job, but I think the coaches right now
are doing a really good job at the high end
(01:13):
programs of making sure that they're playing some high end
opponents early, and that's a good thing for college hockey.
I look at the over under on this one. I'm
going to start there because this I don't really have
a good preference Denver or Boston College. I like the
way BC played of late, but their first home game
was not a strong one against Qrnipiac. So I'm just
(01:36):
gonna start with the over under six and a half.
I think it's too high, So if I had to
bet that, I'm going over. Plus the fact that we
see we've seen two game series. This is a single
game that we've seen in two game series where these
early games, the first game of the two has gone lower.
So let's just assume this is the first of two games.
It's not it's the first game, it's the only game.
(01:58):
I'm still going to think it's a low game, a
three to one, three to two type of game. So
I d the only bet I would make here would
probably be on the under.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
Owing to my status as as as host of a
of a BC hockey podcast, I wouldn't make a pick
on this one. But in working for Boston College, I
wouldn't want to make a pick on this one either,
you know.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
But if I were, because like you said, it's a
pick them.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
But if I'm looking at the over under, I guess
my key to finding that is that they is that
Boston College. It depends what happens in net this in
on the defensive end against Denver. I know, we look
at the Western teams and say that the Western teams
typically score more and that the goal numbers are higher,
and BC can really get up and down the ice
as they proved out in Minnesota and against RPI. What
(02:42):
I think the key comes down to is Boston College
in back with a freshman goaltender and Luki and Luca Coutier.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
How that kind of.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
Withstands another game in a one game against Denver, which
I think can still get up and down the ice
really well.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
So in terms of the over under, you know, that's.
Speaker 4 (02:59):
Kind of where if you think that the defense from
BC and the defense from Denver with Denver has the
Denver curse, right, the Denver curse on BC with Matt
Davis and net if they can hold and if they
can hold the numbers on the shots and keep the
shots outside, then.
Speaker 3 (03:16):
The under comes into play.
Speaker 4 (03:17):
But I wouldn't want to pick this game anyway, let
alone putting my own restriction on myself. This is what
the fourth time these times these teams fourth or fifth
time they've played in the last three years, and they
every single time besides Denver coming out with a win,
which causes problems for me personally. It's always a great
hockey game.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
You know, this game might be more important than a
lot of in league games for either of these teams
if they don't win their conference, because both teams are
going to have some Top twenty teams that they play
in their conference, probably half to two thirds of those,
but they're going to be games against teams that are
not going to help them in the NPI. So they've
(03:59):
got to approach this. It's almost like it's a playoff
game with the intensity because it's got that level of importance.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
Especially Denver.
Speaker 4 (04:08):
Especially Denver, if you look at Denver's non conference game
non conference schedule, they're not getting a lot of help
playing Atlanta Hockey teams, playing Lindenwood, Northeastern comes up on
Saturday for them, Alaska, Anchorage. They just don't have a
lot of games that you look at in the non
conference schedule and say our throwaways.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
They have to win those games.
Speaker 4 (04:29):
So I think this turns into one of those, especially
with the road points and picking up.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
A win on the road.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Yeah, you bring up a good point there. Boston College
not in the same situation. You know, they played Quinnipiac,
they played two of Minnesota. They'll have the Bean Plok games.
I don't know how strong those will be, but I
assume a game against Boston University will be very strong
as a non conference game, even though we're conference opponent.
So I agree with you, Dan. I think Denver this
is a bigger game, probably for them in the NPI
(04:59):
aspect of it. It's so weird to be talking about
that in October, but we are. I think it also
shows that we've learned a little about the NPI system
and that we don't need to just start looking at
it in January. We almost have to start looking at
it the first day of the season. So I think
that you're right at this game carries a lot with
(05:19):
it in a non conference.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Yeah, it's not where a team is in the NPI
right now, but what the components are that are going
to calculate it when you get to the end of
the season. And I think the days of coaches telling
us vow we don't really look at that, I don't
think I ever believed it, but I don't think anybody's
singing it anymore. Well, let's look at our next contest,
and it's actually one within Hockey East, number eleven Yukon
(05:44):
and number four Boston University. Six and a half is
the over under on this one. A big home favorite
are the Terriers at minus two fifty the visiting Huskies
plus one ninety.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
I gotta tell you this is another tough aim for
me to pick. I've liked things I've seen from Boston University,
but I don't think that I like Boston University to
pick them yet. They are a series against Michigan State,
a slow start, lost Friday night, putting themselves in a hole.
That Saturday game was probably one of the best games
(06:18):
I've had a chance to go back and watch that.
That was one of the best games that was played
early season here. But I do have some concerns about
Boston University Slight Connecticut. I probably have the same concerns
when I really come down to it. But I guess
home ice should dictate where I would make a pick here,
(06:42):
So I guess if the value was there, I would
pick bu I don't like the value at this point.
They're not they shouldn't be that strong of a favorite.
So if I had to make a pick here, I'd
probably be going with the Huskies.
Speaker 4 (06:54):
And Yukon does not win games frequently against these tea
teams at top of Hockey East, like they picked them off.
They do pick off a good amount of them, but
with the frequency of which you'd want to look at
their history against a team like BU, which for the
last couple of years has been at the top three
of Hockey East, Yukon has been one of those teams
(07:16):
that has fallen into that next tier like the very good.
I remember when I voted them number one in the
country was because I felt like they were the best
team at that time in the country. But overall, if
you're looking at the full body of work, they're not
a team that you're going to see go into BU
and historically pick up any type of consistent wins. I
think back they did it maybe a couple of years
(07:37):
ago in the twenty three twenty two ish they did
win in Boston. So this early in the season, given
that they've also been inconsistent, BU has been a little
bit more.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Consistent the Michigan State Series.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
Aside with the four to two loss, I still like BU. Here,
I'm not sure what to make of the over under
at all at six and a half. I feel like
this go either way. I feel like both teams can
get up and down if they need to. But I
still like BU. But with the odds on BU at
minus two fifty, I think that's one that maybe you
try to parlay somewhere along the line, because that is
(08:11):
not just it's just not great odds on BU against a.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
Team like Yukon either.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
Yeah, I think Yukon is too strong and reported for
BU to be a minus two fifty at home. I
just think that that's off. Again. On the over under
at six point five, this is two games in a
row where we're seeing the elevated over under. Most usually
it's been five and a half early season, so six
and a half. I don't like that number. That's a
hard number to get to. To get to seven, you're
(08:37):
talking about five, two, four three. I see more four
to two three, one three two type of games here.
I don't like the over I would I would have
to go wonder if I was gonna bet the overall.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
And this is one of those two games series. Although
it's home and home, they're going to play at Tuscano
in stores on Saturday. Well, we're going to take a
pause and when we come back, we'll look at another
East West matchup plus our pizza money game that is
borderline for pizza money, plus what happened with last week's
(09:09):
pizza money. That's when we continue on us Cho Edge.
Welcome back to us Cho Edge. Providence number fifteen this
week against number nineteen Saint Thomas the Tommy's with a
weird weekend, two lopsided games, one on either side of
it against air Force five and a half is the
(09:33):
over under. Providence travels to Saint Thomas to their beautiful
new arena. Providence is minus one eighty. Saint Thomas is
a plus one for this is.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
The right line. Providence should be a favorite here. If
they were at Holan, they'd be a little bit heavier
of a favorite. But we're still trying to see a
good Providence team put forth a great effort. That's what
I'm looking for. I did not think that when they
played Michigan they even looked competitive. That was kind of
(10:07):
the other game for them that stands out to me,
and so I'm looking for Providence to put forward their
best effort. Here that said Saint Thomas. Every time they
take the ice. I think that they are a team
that is upset worthy. They can pull off the upset.
They're not supposed to win. I don't think that they're
technically supposed to win this game. I think that they could.
(10:28):
If I had to bet it, I'm going Providence, even
though there's not a lot of value on them. Maybe
this is the Providence bu parlay that you're looking for there, Dan,
I don't know how we get that, but yeah, I
just I think that if I had to bet this,
it would be Providence.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
But I don't.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
I don't feel strongly toward either team in this one.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
I think when you look at Providence, right, you look
at at what Providence is. The idea of the Providence
hockey team, the one that went to the tournament last year,
the one that's embedded from winning a national championship and
number of trips to a frozen four or out of
the first round of the tournament. I think they went
to six straight national tournaments at some point ten years ago.
(11:08):
And you look at Providence and you think to yourself
that this is a team that wins a certain way.
They win defensive hockey shut you down, and they win
a lot of hockey games doing it. Just very nondescript
about the way, almost almost the binality of hockey, right.
They just go about their effort and just put it in. Unfortunately,
(11:29):
when I look at Providence, with the exception of going
to last year's national Tournament, it hasn't been there with
the consistency that I think was there when they won
the national championship in those years in the frozen four years,
ten years ago. So to see them even early on
and look at their schedule and say they played really
poorly in a particular game along the way, or lost
(11:52):
five to one to Michigan, lost three to one to
Michigan at home, and then beat up an RPI team
that frankly is an expansion team right now with twenty
new guys trying to figure everything out. I don't quite
feel the good vibes about Providence, and I need something
from Providence to make me feel better about looking at
them and picking them, especially when.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
Going on the road.
Speaker 4 (12:15):
And you know how I feel about home underdogs going
on a long trip out west to take on Saint Thomas,
which has reinvented its program with a new home building
that which is gorgeous. They have great home ice advantage there,
I and frankly, as an underdog, I don't quite understand
it because they can.
Speaker 3 (12:33):
Pick off those wins.
Speaker 4 (12:34):
I understand where the odds kind of fall historically, but
I really like taking Saint Thomas and this plus one
forty I think gives you value on them at home
against a Providence team that increasingly over the last couple
of years has shown that these are the games that
they can lose as opposed to the other way around,
which is you almost expect.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
Them to win.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
Well, let's go on to our Pizza Money game. And
before we started recording, we had a little conversation and
I think the right way to frame this question, as
Jim corrected me on it is is everybody just good?
This year in college hockey, has the influx of CHL
players just raised the level for everyone. And the reason
(13:17):
we asked that question is last week's Pizza Money game
was LU at Penn State and that one went into overtime.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
Penn State needed every minute, every possible second, and every
possible goal to beat LU. And I had a chance
to talk to Brendan Riley. I'll call his game on
Friday night up at New Hampshire, and we were talking
yesterday he said, I felt like I knew my team
was really prepared going into Penn State last Friday, and
I knew we were going to give them a tough game,
(13:45):
and they certainly did. And it comes down to you.
We were saying, I'll kind of expanded that conversation from before.
I think you started by saying, is everybody is there
really no good team in college hockey? And I think
my response was, maybe there's just no bad team. We
just don't have the teams that are. You just know
we're going to get stomped in and even weekend, every
(14:07):
team out there seems to be able to beat any team.
And I do think by the time we get to January, February, March,
we're going to see some teams. Whether it's those one
of the three Michigan teams that are sitting one, two
and three in the poll, or whether it's another team
at Boston University, Denver, North Dakota and Minnesota, whatever, take
(14:27):
your pick. I think we're going to see some teams
really elevate at one point. But right now I think
we're because we're playing so much non conference hockey, and
we have a lot of unfamiliar opponents. I think that
is created with the influx of Tellow. It just created
some really good even matchups that we wouldn't have seen
in past years.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
Of course, it.
Speaker 4 (14:46):
Would be the one time that I say, I can't
justify taking pizza beat that turns into the game that
goes to overtime, and I'm.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
At least l AU didn't win. I mean, if LA
then you're a really.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
Yeah, then NFL.
Speaker 4 (14:59):
Then I have wondered if my face was going to
be plastered all over the locker room somewhere in there
with a dartboard after I said, there's no shot that
they take this even with the number, So I'll go
back to taking the underdog on the pizza bet from
now on.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
We all know what's coming after this then apparently Yeah.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
And by the way, early in the season and with
a lot of changes on rosters from season to season,
there really isn't a lot of video to look at.
Maybe a couple of games maybe you can see what
they're doing for a ford check or a power play,
but you don't have the kind of data that you
would have come November. So that probably adds a little
(15:35):
variability too. That said, let's look at this one. These
are both good teams, they're both top twenty teams, so
this is borderline for pizza money. But it was the
whitest margin we had this week with the odds that
were given. And that's number eighteen Minnesota Duluth at number
twelve Minnesota over under six and a half. Minnesota Duluth
(16:00):
is a plus two fifty. Minnesota is a minus three
forty five. I'm just gonna say, and I'll let you
guys go go with it. But for me, looking at
this and the way the Bulldogs have been playing this one,
you know I could I could go without a pizza
one Saturday.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
What a Swede line, isn't This one just feels really off.
We have talked on all of our podcasts basically since
day one this season at Minnesota is struggling. They haven't
put together those efforts that you're typically expecting from Minnesota
day and day out. I am surprised by that. All
that said, delude six and oho, They've played great, haven't
(16:40):
played a big opponent like Minnesota yet, so this is
their biggest test. But I would absolutely take my twenty
dollars and you can have it. I'm plus forty through
two weeks because I haven't bet on this. Dan is
only plus twenty because he has he threw his pizza
money away in week one. I will get rid of
(17:00):
my pizza money this week. I think we can. We
can make some real money here. Throw them the bulldogs
and let's let's hear the those Gopher fans like their wounds.
Speaker 4 (17:11):
But like, do we think that the line got extended
because to minus three forty five because Gopher fans had
to bet themselves against Minnesota Duluth?
Speaker 3 (17:21):
Like we do?
Speaker 4 (17:22):
We think because there's because like the Twins, it's the
twin city, so there's gonna be more by volume people
probably betting on Minnesota than Duluth. Like that's the only
thing I can really come up with, is that a
whole bunch of people were just throwing money on Minnesota
for this one just because they love them. I would
bet I before this, if this wasn't even the pizza money,
I would have taken Duluth Like it's I'm gonna have
(17:44):
taken Duluth anyway. I mean, they they beat Augustana, they
swept to Midgi not bad teams by any stretch of
Minnesota is trying to find its identity, and all of
a sudden, Minnesota Duluth is is a team to watch.
So of course I'm gonna throw the pizza money down
on this. Is like the easiest extra topping I think
you can get, which means that Minnesota is gonna win
and everyone's gonna have a good laugh at my expense
(18:06):
next week. The one thing I will say about this
matchup from a coaching standpoint, we need guy like I
love coaching characters. I love it when when two characters
are behind the bench and they just offer the perfect
clash to one another, like the contrast, even if they're
very similar Scott Sandal and Bob Motts. I am humped
every time these two guys get to coach against each
(18:28):
other or you see guys like that, because I think
they both have that right flare, that right little bit
that makes them their program, that their program is inherently
about them.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
So I'm really excited for it.
Speaker 4 (18:41):
We all know how much I love watching Scott sandalin
coaches team anyway, so I'm running with Duluth and I'd
give you even give you a bark on this one
for the Bulldogs if it was if I knew how
to do it well, So I'm rolling you MD here.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
Please please don't do that before I get hate mail.
I've forgot that Dulude did have a loss this year.
They're not perfect going into this game. But yeah, I
just I look at this. I take your approach to
I would have bet on Minnesota Dlute if there was
no pizza money, betting balls. I mean, this is I
just can't bet the Golphers right now. They haven't shown
(19:17):
me anything. I think they're gonna be a good team.
I just actually mentioned them in one of those teams
that might separate themselves and be a really good team
come January, Febuary, March. They're not playing that well right now.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
I'm gonna call you on one thing.
Speaker 4 (19:29):
One of the teams we didn't mention that could separate
themselves come February or March, is they could. Very like
the way that this season has started and the way
that this team's rolling. They get a good they string
together a good couple of weekends here and you got Minnesota,
then end of the month you got to North Dakota,
then after that Saint Cloud. They get through that stretch
looking pretty good and looking maybe one or two losses
(19:50):
on their entire season, and all of a sudden, we're
gonna be talking a heck of a lot more about
the loose that we did in the past couple of
years because of what you said. There's so many good teams,
nobody's separating. There's the peloton that they're gonna come flying
through into the breakaway gap.
Speaker 3 (20:03):
I see it. I've been talking.
Speaker 4 (20:05):
About it for the last couple of years of how
I think it's gonna eventually come.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
I'm gonna I'm gonna do it again. I got I
got the.
Speaker 4 (20:11):
Luther As being the team we're not talking about enough.
Speaker 2 (20:13):
One last question before we wrap. Wouldn't you have expected
the numbers on this one to look more like that
Providence Saint Thomas game, like a plus one forty one eighty.
Isn't that what you would guess from this time of
year if you were setting it something closer to that.
Speaker 1 (20:30):
Yeah, especially, and I'm not even sure how much of
a home iice advantage there's going to be in this game.
You know you're not. It's you're talking about Mariucci a
building that doesn't always pack. I know this probably feels
like a rivalry game from the old w c H. Maybe,
but you're gonna have Dluth fans making the trip down.
I'm sure buying up some of the tickets. I think that,
(20:52):
you know, even the building won't be all all Gophers.
I think this is this is the numbers just feel
off here. Dan might have made the point. I think,
you know, the computers and AI generated lines might have
anticipated that Minnesota Duluth. I'm sorry, yeah, Minnesota would get
more action early. I don't know that that's the case.
(21:14):
You know, this is a line that's kind of been
there since early this week, so I'm really really kind
of surprised at this number. It just feels off to me.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Well, with that, we'll wrap up this week's edition. For
Jim Connolly, for Dan Rubin, I'm Ed Treschker, and this
has been usc cho Edge