October 17, 2025 • 21 mins
USCHO Edge hosts Jim Connelly (@jimmyconnelly), Dan Rubin (@DanRubin12) and Ed Trefzger (@EdTrefzger) look at money lines and over/under for four games on Friday, October 17, 2025.
Find all of our podcasts at USCHO.com/podcasts
- Michigan State +100 @ Boston University -130; over/under 6.5
- Maine -115 @ Quinnipiac -115; o/u 5.5
- Minnesota -120 @ North Dakota -110; o/u 6.5
- LIU +520 @ Penn State -850; o/u 6.5 (our "pizza money" game
Find all of our podcasts at USCHO.com/podcasts
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to usccho Edge for Friday, October seventeenth, twenty twenty five.
I'm at Trevsker alongside Jim Connolly and Dan Rubin. Well,
another week guys of looking at some games, looking at
what the betting odds are and analyzing how they got
there and what you should do with them. I think
that sums it up. First game on our list has
(00:34):
Michigan State at Boston University, another early season matchup between
two teams a lot of people expect, possibly to be
facing each other in the frozen four over under on
this game is six and a half. Michigan State is
the slight underdog their plus one hundred and Boston University
the home favorite at minus one thirty.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
This is a really good early season game. We've been
saying this now for a couple of weeks. I mean,
these early season matchups fantastic. Both teams coming off a
weekend where they didn't get exactly everything they wanted. Let's
just say, you know, the Terriers, they don't take a loss,
but they end up with the tie against Colgate.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Probably didn't want that one.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
And then you know, Michigan State, you go back that
loss last Thursday night against you and Age. So here
we're in this situation where I think both teams have
high expectations, but they're already trying to maybe right the
ship just a tiny bit.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
So I like the home team on this one. I
go terriers.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
If I had to take it, six and a half
feels a little high.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
For me on this one.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
I'll mention over unders here a little bit. I went
back into last weekend's games and just looked at the
over unders if we set the line at let's just
say five and a half, So if it's five or lower,
that's going to be under. If it's six or higher,
that we'll call that over. Last weekend thirty games would
have gone over six six or higher twenty two under.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
But interestingly that number that.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
Split was even in the first game of the series,
So the second games in these series tend to be
a little bit higher, at least based on last weekend's results.
Small sample size, I know, but I had mentioned last
week that I feel that early season games have a
tendency to go over, especially Saturday games. So I guess
(02:35):
if I'm going to make some sort of a clarification there,
it does feel like the Saturday is the better night
to take the over. I'd stay away from the over
under on this one here, but give me BU at
home like be here to win this game.
Speaker 4 (02:47):
I really do like I think BU is especially your
home early season, big game. I think that for a
team like being here, this is this is what starts
to move the needle for me and be here being
the spot a little bit of what BC filled last year,
which was that BC had the number one you know,
pair wise at the time sewn up pretty much by
(03:08):
halfway through the year because they.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Were such a good team at the beginning of the season.
Speaker 4 (03:11):
I've done all the things, so I think Boston University
can do something similar by beating Michigan State in this weekend.
That said, from a gambling standpoint, from a betting standpoint,
minus one thirty.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
While it's not you know, it's not, it's not.
Speaker 4 (03:26):
Fifty to fifty plus one hundred gets you just that
little bit extra value that you might not get on BU.
And by that I'm splitting hairs. So from a betting standpoint,
do I look at Michigan State. Absolutely, It's kind of
the emotional hedge where I think BU is gonna win.
But I think Michigan State might be the bet because
you're getting you know, B poss value versus A minus.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
So that said, that's kind of way I look.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
At it for a betting standpoint, but I'm with you,
especially on the over under. I think the over under
is going to hit under on this I do not
see this going over. I stay away from it though,
because of the tendency of games early in the season
to go over, but especially with the Big ten team,
I think that's the that's the key for me.
Speaker 3 (04:07):
So I uh, but I would touch it. I think
that's too high of a number and I've been burned
by the six and a half already this year.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
So if you think that Bu's going to win, is
betting on Michigan State really value? If you think that
Michigan State's got to lose, why how do you get
value out of betting on them?
Speaker 4 (04:27):
So I think be you for me, it's one of
those I don't think be you. Yeah, it's a good point.
I know I've said that reform where I like BU
to be the favorite to win.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
I think the number is well placed.
Speaker 4 (04:38):
But from a betting standpoint, it's one of those where
I'm betting against myself, and I'm looking at myself saying
this is exactly what I think. Some to the opposite,
which is kind of my my predo towards Dan as an.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
Idiot when it comes to these bets. I bet if
we ran the numbers somewhere around forty percent.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
So that's my that's my that's my thing, bettingain whatever,
I say.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Yeah, So one observation and then I have one question
after that. The observation is these top ten, top twenty
matchups early in the season may as individual games actually
be more important than any single game in their conference
this season, because they're going to have postseason implications, and
(05:20):
you could if you miss a victory in a couple
of these, you could slip from maybe a regional top
seed to a number three seed when it comes to
the end of the season, just based on a couple
of those games. So we'll see how the NPI shakes
out on that. The question, when you get a game
(05:41):
like this, are you better off looking to see if
you can parlay it with a couple other games and
maybe put something more interesting together. Because these are nearly
even money.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
What is there. There's not a whole lot to gain
out as something like this.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
No, there is not, but I mean coming back and
just you're just doubling your bet as what you're you're
hoping to do. It's a straight win loss, so it's
you know, you're you're fifty to fifty.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
You're not trying to ask for too much return.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
Now in terms of the parlay, sure, you know, if
I can take a couple of teams that are right
around minus one thirty, makeup parlay where I'm going to
turn it into something, you know, closer to two times
my money. Yeah, the parlays are hard to win. I'm
not a parlay guy. I've never been a parlay guy.
But you can get a little bit more value. I
like to parlay when it's really long odds. You know,
(06:31):
we'll get to the pizza money bet. But if you're
gonna you know, if you're going to take the favorite
in one of these really you know, lopsided games, that's
when you have to have a parlay. And you might
need a four or five legged parlay if you're talking
about a bunch of these you know, minus six fifty
minus seven hundred odds.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
But I don't I don't feel like you have to
in this situation though, but that.
Speaker 5 (06:53):
That is a good point you raise and and just
to just to I know, just quickly to dump on
top of that too, is that's where if you are betting,
I think sometimes more of the value comes from the
games where you get longer.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
Odds on teams like the like if you want to
bet the favorite, you obviously want to get the fifty
to fifty favorite more likely or parlay too heavy favorites.
I don't know that there is a situation where if
I'm looking at a game like this, which is almost
a fifty to fifty split, that I would maybe would bet,
Like I feel like there's that sweet spot when we
talk about betting where if you look and maybe this
(07:27):
will be kind of our some of what we get
to where instead of betting your plus five twenties and
your minus nine hundreds, that you find ones that are
minus plus lent or minus one sixty five plus one
sixty five, that that I should say.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
Not minus one sixty five, that are plus.
Speaker 4 (07:43):
One sixty five, and those tend to maybe at your
your sweet spot once you become more in tune with
what some of these teams are doing.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
Let's look at our next game in this first segment
at Quinnipiac over under is five and a half and
it's uh victim game. Both teams minus one fifteen the
house getting fifteen percent no matter what. But this is
a toss up here. This is This is interesting and
(08:12):
probably pretty well placed too. It's at Quinnipiac, so a
little home advantage for the Bobcats. What do you guys
see in this one?
Speaker 1 (08:20):
Well, I talked on I think it was Wednesday's podcast
about how strong Maine has looked this year already and
how high the expectations are. There was a great opening
weekend last week against Holy Cross Quinnipiac.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
They're just at the you know, kind of in the
middle of this.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
This is a tough start, you know, Boston College, then
to Arizona for the icebreaker.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
Now you're finally.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Getting home, but you have Maine, a really good team
coming in. I think this is what Brandon pecnoll tries
to do and set up a really tough schedule.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
I like that, but it's it's a tough one.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
I'd probably I like to usually go home team on
the first night. It didn't look good last week, especially
if you did that on Thursday. I think all four
whole games past last Thursday night, so I tend to
when you have two games series, I love to go
a home team the first night, So I'm going to
go court a Piac on Friday.
Speaker 4 (09:13):
For me, is kind of a really interesting case study
for the start of this season because the team itself
is trends older.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
It was one thing that when I was doing.
Speaker 4 (09:23):
The ECAC preview really stuck out to me was that
this team has a lot of experienced, older guys who
were first year college hockey player. Rampecnell did a fantastic
job of recruiting the CHL, getting guys win a lot
of different Canadian experience guys with pro careers already in
the ECHL. So this is a team that at the
beginning of the year is going to be more game
(09:46):
ready than I think a lot of teams that you're
going to see at the beginning of the season, just
because of that aspect of having a team that trends.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
A little bit older. That said, when you look at Maine.
Speaker 4 (09:57):
Maine I think is better at this point because I
think when you look at Quinnipiac, there's still the aspect
of gelling a team and pinballing it back and forth
a bit last week in the or. It wasn't great,
but it was you know, you go out and you
just it just didn't add up for me a little
bit with what Quinnipiac maybe looked like or what they
(10:18):
were capable of doing.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
Moving to Alaska was an ideal.
Speaker 4 (10:23):
So for me looking at this particular game and looking
at this particular case study, it turns into do you
think Quinnipiac is going to come out and play well
as a team that's starting to gel or are you're
taking the more experienced main team. That's why I'm usually
with Jimmy in this where I take the home team,
specifically on Friday, especially if it's a home underdog. I
(10:44):
love Quinnipiac if it were maybe plus one fifteen instead
of mine instead of just straight or plus one twenty.
So I think I'm going with Quinnipiac on the home basis,
But I I also really like the under in this
just because I think you have a defensive team and
against the team that's very good goaltending. So even if
I don't want to bet the straight pick them, I
(11:06):
think maybe I'll take the under on this. And then
got to go that way instead of taking the money line.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
Yeah, I feel like, you know, what's your reference with Quinnipiac.
You know, they start with a really great emotional win
over Boston College, then the icebreaker, the game against Alaska
is the game they're supposed to win, right, and and
you drop that one.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
They bounced back.
Speaker 1 (11:28):
I thought the effort against Notre Dame the seven to
win in a consilation game, that's a tough game. Nobody
even wants to play it. So I think bouncing back
that's a good sign for them. But I think I
think you end up with two teams that have all
the potential of the world going against each other this weekend.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
It should be a great, great weekend.
Speaker 4 (11:47):
Yeah, future, future future Friday Night and uh in March.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
Will be these two teams.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
Well, we're going to take a break and come back
with two more games, a long time rivalry and our
pizza money bet when USC ch O Edge continues back
with US CHO Edge Minnesota and North Dakota, longtime rivals
in the long now departed w CCHA. This game has
(12:13):
an over under of six and a half, so they're
looking for some scoring. North Dakota a very slight favorite
at home. They're minus one ten. The visiting Golden Gophers
minus one twenty.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
This is one where I just I'm still questioning Minnesota
here out of the gate. I said that on Monday's
podcast too. I guess I just I want to see
consistency from the Gophers at this point. And you know,
they dropped. They split their opening weekend with dropping the
second game to Tech and then you know, losing to
(12:46):
BC and then not being able to find a win.
I know they get the shootout when that doesn't count
for any except emotion, which for Minnesota that means a lot.
Speaker 3 (12:56):
I just I'm give me North.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
Dakota here at home slight favorite over all under this
is one that I might actually touch.
Speaker 3 (13:07):
I go under here.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
I think that these two teams, despite the emotion, I
think on the first night you'll see probably more of
a tight defensive game.
Speaker 3 (13:16):
Granted, you can have.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
Three goals in the first two minutes and that throws
that off, but I just I think that this should
be a good defensive effort between these two teams in.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
Night one, and I like, like North Dakota on top.
Speaker 4 (13:29):
Part of the way the line is showing for me
makes me think that this is just a heavy action
a game with a lot of heavy action on it.
We get you have the North Dakota inherent fan base.
Minnesota has big fan base, big rivalry. People know Minnesota
North Dakota. So I'm a little concerned when I look
at some of the things in here and I see
not only slight favorite, but the puck lines at one
(13:52):
and a half, So like one and a half plus two.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
Hundred for Minnesota is not touchable for me.
Speaker 4 (13:58):
But I'm looking at it, I'm like, how much action
is probably poured in on Minnesota to beat North Dakota
And what are people thinking right now? So I'm looking
at it and I'm saying, first, it's the first road
game for Minnesota, which is great, Like you gotta get
on the road and and forge yourself and be a
little bit different of a team when you're on the road,
getting in the hotel and getting getting away from what's
(14:20):
been a picty first four games at home against Michigan
Tech and BC.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
But you go to North Dakota and North Dakota is.
Speaker 4 (14:30):
I mean it looks so good last week and at
Saint Thomas and it was like, I just don't know
on what, Like I don't know that North Dakota shouldn't
be a bigger favorite. It's like or should be a favorite.
In what I'm saying, I just think they should be favorite.
I think that should be a bigger favorite. Like I
think they should be around minus one sixty in this,
I don't see Minnesota as minus one funny, and I
(14:52):
don't see Minnesota as a one and a half Paul favorite.
So I'm taking the I'm taking the behindmost.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
Send this soup, you know, let's make it to evy
six style.
Speaker 4 (15:01):
I'm thinking the soup North Dakota Fighting Hawks minus one
bet as long as you're going back two decades, what's
the over under on the number of Holy Cross jerseys
worn by North Dakota fans?
Speaker 3 (15:13):
Well, tuns bill high that goes, that goes into it
might get to triple digits.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
Like, I think you'd have to put the over under
somewhere in the high seventies.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
I'd love to see a purple and do a purple
and how many of those Holy Cross jerseys still?
Speaker 3 (15:30):
Bet?
Speaker 2 (15:31):
But that's a bet for it some other day that's
highn't fit?
Speaker 3 (15:36):
Yeah, can we bet on negative numbers?
Speaker 2 (15:40):
Oh man, Well, let's go to our pizza money game
and the pizza money game is one where the odds
are so long that if you feel like you could
spend the money, you would have spent on a pizza.
Go ahead on that game. First year head coach Brendan
Riley at l I U his cousin Brett a number
(16:00):
of players with him. Brendan brought some for me. I
see so rebuilding there at l IU and Penn State.
We've heard lots about Gavin McKenna. Guy Gadowski is hosting
with his Nitney Lyons over under his six and a half.
Here's the numbers on this one. L IU the underdog
(16:21):
at plus five point twenty and Penn State the home
favorite at minus eight fIF poul.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
That's a pretty big number.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
I don't well, we'll get some big ones, especially toward
the NCAA tournament time, where we might get a minus
and it's a four figure number on the favorite.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
But this is a pretty high number.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
You know. I'm the conservative one here. We say this.
We said this last week, and I'm up twenty dollars.
Dan's down twenty dollars. He bet his pizza money. I
saved my last week. I still can't make the bet,
but I don't mind this bet. If you made it,
I think LU when you look at what they've done
(17:02):
thus far, a six to one win their last game out,
But they also you're talking about a four to two
loss to a good Boston University team on the road,
and then a three to two loss in overtime in
a six to one win against Kannesians. So when you're
looking at their results this far, they're not giving up
(17:23):
a ton of goals. This is a good Penn State team.
We know that they have plenty of offense. They'd like
to shoot the puck. Will they score a ton? That's
the big question. If you think that Lu's defense can come,
come and show up and limit this Penn State team
and find a way to win, this is a good
value bet. There's no doubt you're not going to get
a better value, probably for maybe the rest of the
(17:45):
regular season. But I'm just keeping my pizza money again.
I have forty dollars of my pockets through two weeks.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
I throw my if I throw my Monopoly money episode what,
I don't even know that people still use Monopoly money
or is it now like Monopoly credit card or something
like that.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
I don't I don't owe money. Is Monopoly money.
Speaker 4 (18:04):
Now, yeah, if I'm throwing if I'm throwing my monocle
bout and picking this game, I'm actually, you know what,
this is going to be the rare case, and I'm
going to look to regret saying this I have done.
Speaker 3 (18:16):
I'm ordering pizza like I'm not. I'm not I'm not
touching best one ill. Like, look how many times ed
you and I are have been in Atlantic cocky very
long Jimmy was in the war.
Speaker 4 (18:29):
How many times do we see teams go and give
it a good show, Like they'll go out and they'll
they'll they'll be down one through the first period, or
they'll be down you know, they'll be even with a
team through the first period the half. But then you
get outshot something like fifty five to fifteen. When the
game's over, forty five to fifteen, and you lose the
game four to one. Like that's probably where this game goes.
(18:52):
And that's you walk out and if you're lu and
you go, wow, we go great for thirty five minutes
or then Penn state it was just that good.
Speaker 3 (19:00):
Hey, we've seen games like this happen all the time.
Speaker 4 (19:02):
That's why for the first time I think I wouldn't
even touch the plot coin plus two and a half.
I think this is going to wind up being one
of those games that when it's all set and done,
there's gonna be like twenty five shot period for Penn State.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
Either the first or the second.
Speaker 4 (19:17):
Probably going to be a little bit tighter because Lu
has just buckled it on depense, and then the buckle
league breaks and then Penn State goes on a run,
scores a couple of goals, maybe gets power play in there,
and then they're off to the races. I think you
walk out of this weekend if you're happy, l I
you you lose a couple of games, maybe five to
one or one. Maybe there's a blow up complete blog
(19:40):
in there, but string together in good twenty minutes and
you'll be happy.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
But I'm not.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
That sounds about right, and all the pressure in this game,
in these games is on Penn State. Lu's coming in there.
To use the phrase playing with house money. So should
be fun though, But I'll point out one last thing
before we break. Penn State has not been impervious. They
did lose six to four to a Clarkson team that
(20:10):
lost three to one to Canecius that l I U
took into overtime, so you know, I know it's it's.
Speaker 3 (20:17):
Our friend properties of wins and losses.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Yeah, or the what do they call it, the circle
of suck that a BU fan puts together every year
where everybody is beating everybody in a big circle. Anyway,
that's going to wrap it up. One last thing. None
of us bet on these games. We just talked about them.
We stay away from college hockey betting. I just don't bet, period,
but have fun and bet with your head, not over it.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
For Jim conwey fly bet, I have kids, you're applying
money to bet? No.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Well, I will say this, you bet on more sports
than I have. But it's like a like a friend
said the other day, if you're reading this post, you
have more passing yards than the Jets had today as
they were minus ten. So your sports betting over my zero, ever,
(21:15):
is not any big achievement anyway. For Jim Connolly, For
Dan Rubin, I'm ed Trevsker. This has been usc ch
O edge
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to usccho Edge for Friday, October seventeenth, twenty twenty five.
I'm at Trevsker alongside Jim Connolly and Dan Rubin. Well,
another week guys of looking at some games, looking at
what the betting odds are and analyzing how they got
there and what you should do with them. I think
that sums it up. First game on our list has
(00:34):
Michigan State at Boston University, another early season matchup between
two teams a lot of people expect, possibly to be
facing each other in the frozen four over under on
this game is six and a half. Michigan State is
the slight underdog their plus one hundred and Boston University
the home favorite at minus one thirty.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
This is a really good early season game. We've been
saying this now for a couple of weeks. I mean,
these early season matchups fantastic. Both teams coming off a
weekend where they didn't get exactly everything they wanted. Let's
just say, you know, the Terriers, they don't take a loss,
but they end up with the tie against Colgate.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Probably didn't want that one.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
And then you know, Michigan State, you go back that
loss last Thursday night against you and Age. So here
we're in this situation where I think both teams have
high expectations, but they're already trying to maybe right the
ship just a tiny bit.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
So I like the home team on this one. I
go terriers.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
If I had to take it, six and a half
feels a little high.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
For me on this one.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
I'll mention over unders here a little bit. I went
back into last weekend's games and just looked at the
over unders if we set the line at let's just
say five and a half, So if it's five or lower,
that's going to be under. If it's six or higher,
that we'll call that over. Last weekend thirty games would
have gone over six six or higher twenty two under.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
But interestingly that number that.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
Split was even in the first game of the series,
So the second games in these series tend to be
a little bit higher, at least based on last weekend's results.
Small sample size, I know, but I had mentioned last
week that I feel that early season games have a
tendency to go over, especially Saturday games. So I guess
(02:35):
if I'm going to make some sort of a clarification there,
it does feel like the Saturday is the better night
to take the over. I'd stay away from the over
under on this one here, but give me BU at
home like be here to win this game.
Speaker 4 (02:47):
I really do like I think BU is especially your
home early season, big game. I think that for a
team like being here, this is this is what starts
to move the needle for me and be here being
the spot a little bit of what BC filled last year,
which was that BC had the number one you know,
pair wise at the time sewn up pretty much by
(03:08):
halfway through the year because they.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Were such a good team at the beginning of the season.
Speaker 4 (03:11):
I've done all the things, so I think Boston University
can do something similar by beating Michigan State in this weekend.
That said, from a gambling standpoint, from a betting standpoint,
minus one thirty.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
While it's not you know, it's not, it's not.
Speaker 4 (03:26):
Fifty to fifty plus one hundred gets you just that
little bit extra value that you might not get on BU.
And by that I'm splitting hairs. So from a betting standpoint,
do I look at Michigan State. Absolutely, It's kind of
the emotional hedge where I think BU is gonna win.
But I think Michigan State might be the bet because
you're getting you know, B poss value versus A minus.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
So that said, that's kind of way I look.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
At it for a betting standpoint, but I'm with you,
especially on the over under. I think the over under
is going to hit under on this I do not
see this going over. I stay away from it though,
because of the tendency of games early in the season
to go over, but especially with the Big ten team,
I think that's the that's the key for me.
Speaker 3 (04:07):
So I uh, but I would touch it. I think
that's too high of a number and I've been burned
by the six and a half already this year.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
So if you think that Bu's going to win, is
betting on Michigan State really value? If you think that
Michigan State's got to lose, why how do you get
value out of betting on them?
Speaker 4 (04:27):
So I think be you for me, it's one of
those I don't think be you. Yeah, it's a good point.
I know I've said that reform where I like BU
to be the favorite to win.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
I think the number is well placed.
Speaker 4 (04:38):
But from a betting standpoint, it's one of those where
I'm betting against myself, and I'm looking at myself saying
this is exactly what I think. Some to the opposite,
which is kind of my my predo towards Dan as an.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
Idiot when it comes to these bets. I bet if
we ran the numbers somewhere around forty percent.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
So that's my that's my that's my thing, bettingain whatever,
I say.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Yeah, So one observation and then I have one question
after that. The observation is these top ten, top twenty
matchups early in the season may as individual games actually
be more important than any single game in their conference
this season, because they're going to have postseason implications, and
(05:20):
you could if you miss a victory in a couple
of these, you could slip from maybe a regional top
seed to a number three seed when it comes to
the end of the season, just based on a couple
of those games. So we'll see how the NPI shakes
out on that. The question, when you get a game
(05:41):
like this, are you better off looking to see if
you can parlay it with a couple other games and
maybe put something more interesting together. Because these are nearly
even money.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
What is there. There's not a whole lot to gain
out as something like this.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
No, there is not, but I mean coming back and
just you're just doubling your bet as what you're you're
hoping to do. It's a straight win loss, so it's
you know, you're you're fifty to fifty.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
You're not trying to ask for too much return.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
Now in terms of the parlay, sure, you know, if
I can take a couple of teams that are right
around minus one thirty, makeup parlay where I'm going to
turn it into something, you know, closer to two times
my money. Yeah, the parlays are hard to win. I'm
not a parlay guy. I've never been a parlay guy.
But you can get a little bit more value. I
like to parlay when it's really long odds. You know,
(06:31):
we'll get to the pizza money bet. But if you're
gonna you know, if you're going to take the favorite
in one of these really you know, lopsided games, that's
when you have to have a parlay. And you might
need a four or five legged parlay if you're talking
about a bunch of these you know, minus six fifty
minus seven hundred odds.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
But I don't I don't feel like you have to
in this situation though, but that.
Speaker 5 (06:53):
That is a good point you raise and and just
to just to I know, just quickly to dump on
top of that too, is that's where if you are betting,
I think sometimes more of the value comes from the
games where you get longer.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
Odds on teams like the like if you want to
bet the favorite, you obviously want to get the fifty
to fifty favorite more likely or parlay too heavy favorites.
I don't know that there is a situation where if
I'm looking at a game like this, which is almost
a fifty to fifty split, that I would maybe would bet,
Like I feel like there's that sweet spot when we
talk about betting where if you look and maybe this
(07:27):
will be kind of our some of what we get
to where instead of betting your plus five twenties and
your minus nine hundreds, that you find ones that are
minus plus lent or minus one sixty five plus one
sixty five, that that I should say.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
Not minus one sixty five, that are plus.
Speaker 4 (07:43):
One sixty five, and those tend to maybe at your
your sweet spot once you become more in tune with
what some of these teams are doing.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
Let's look at our next game in this first segment
at Quinnipiac over under is five and a half and
it's uh victim game. Both teams minus one fifteen the
house getting fifteen percent no matter what. But this is
a toss up here. This is This is interesting and
(08:12):
probably pretty well placed too. It's at Quinnipiac, so a
little home advantage for the Bobcats. What do you guys
see in this one?
Speaker 1 (08:20):
Well, I talked on I think it was Wednesday's podcast
about how strong Maine has looked this year already and
how high the expectations are. There was a great opening
weekend last week against Holy Cross Quinnipiac.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
They're just at the you know, kind of in the
middle of this.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
This is a tough start, you know, Boston College, then
to Arizona for the icebreaker.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
Now you're finally.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Getting home, but you have Maine, a really good team
coming in. I think this is what Brandon pecnoll tries
to do and set up a really tough schedule.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
I like that, but it's it's a tough one.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
I'd probably I like to usually go home team on
the first night. It didn't look good last week, especially
if you did that on Thursday. I think all four
whole games past last Thursday night, so I tend to
when you have two games series, I love to go
a home team the first night, So I'm going to
go court a Piac on Friday.
Speaker 4 (09:13):
For me, is kind of a really interesting case study
for the start of this season because the team itself
is trends older.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
It was one thing that when I was doing.
Speaker 4 (09:23):
The ECAC preview really stuck out to me was that
this team has a lot of experienced, older guys who
were first year college hockey player. Rampecnell did a fantastic
job of recruiting the CHL, getting guys win a lot
of different Canadian experience guys with pro careers already in
the ECHL. So this is a team that at the
beginning of the year is going to be more game
(09:46):
ready than I think a lot of teams that you're
going to see at the beginning of the season, just
because of that aspect of having a team that trends.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
A little bit older. That said, when you look at Maine.
Speaker 4 (09:57):
Maine I think is better at this point because I
think when you look at Quinnipiac, there's still the aspect
of gelling a team and pinballing it back and forth
a bit last week in the or. It wasn't great,
but it was you know, you go out and you
just it just didn't add up for me a little
bit with what Quinnipiac maybe looked like or what they
(10:18):
were capable of doing.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
Moving to Alaska was an ideal.
Speaker 4 (10:23):
So for me looking at this particular game and looking
at this particular case study, it turns into do you
think Quinnipiac is going to come out and play well
as a team that's starting to gel or are you're
taking the more experienced main team. That's why I'm usually
with Jimmy in this where I take the home team,
specifically on Friday, especially if it's a home underdog. I
(10:44):
love Quinnipiac if it were maybe plus one fifteen instead
of mine instead of just straight or plus one twenty.
So I think I'm going with Quinnipiac on the home basis,
But I I also really like the under in this
just because I think you have a defensive team and
against the team that's very good goaltending. So even if
I don't want to bet the straight pick them, I
(11:06):
think maybe I'll take the under on this. And then
got to go that way instead of taking the money line.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
Yeah, I feel like, you know, what's your reference with Quinnipiac.
You know, they start with a really great emotional win
over Boston College, then the icebreaker, the game against Alaska
is the game they're supposed to win, right, and and
you drop that one.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
They bounced back.
Speaker 1 (11:28):
I thought the effort against Notre Dame the seven to
win in a consilation game, that's a tough game. Nobody
even wants to play it. So I think bouncing back
that's a good sign for them. But I think I
think you end up with two teams that have all
the potential of the world going against each other this weekend.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
It should be a great, great weekend.
Speaker 4 (11:47):
Yeah, future, future future Friday Night and uh in March.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
Will be these two teams.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
Well, we're going to take a break and come back
with two more games, a long time rivalry and our
pizza money bet when USC ch O Edge continues back
with US CHO Edge Minnesota and North Dakota, longtime rivals
in the long now departed w CCHA. This game has
(12:13):
an over under of six and a half, so they're
looking for some scoring. North Dakota a very slight favorite
at home. They're minus one ten. The visiting Golden Gophers
minus one twenty.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
This is one where I just I'm still questioning Minnesota
here out of the gate. I said that on Monday's
podcast too. I guess I just I want to see
consistency from the Gophers at this point. And you know,
they dropped. They split their opening weekend with dropping the
second game to Tech and then you know, losing to
(12:46):
BC and then not being able to find a win.
I know they get the shootout when that doesn't count
for any except emotion, which for Minnesota that means a lot.
Speaker 3 (12:56):
I just I'm give me North.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
Dakota here at home slight favorite over all under this
is one that I might actually touch.
Speaker 3 (13:07):
I go under here.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
I think that these two teams, despite the emotion, I
think on the first night you'll see probably more of
a tight defensive game.
Speaker 3 (13:16):
Granted, you can have.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
Three goals in the first two minutes and that throws
that off, but I just I think that this should
be a good defensive effort between these two teams in.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
Night one, and I like, like North Dakota on top.
Speaker 4 (13:29):
Part of the way the line is showing for me
makes me think that this is just a heavy action
a game with a lot of heavy action on it.
We get you have the North Dakota inherent fan base.
Minnesota has big fan base, big rivalry. People know Minnesota
North Dakota. So I'm a little concerned when I look
at some of the things in here and I see
not only slight favorite, but the puck lines at one
(13:52):
and a half, So like one and a half plus two.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
Hundred for Minnesota is not touchable for me.
Speaker 4 (13:58):
But I'm looking at it, I'm like, how much action
is probably poured in on Minnesota to beat North Dakota
And what are people thinking right now? So I'm looking
at it and I'm saying, first, it's the first road
game for Minnesota, which is great, Like you gotta get
on the road and and forge yourself and be a
little bit different of a team when you're on the road,
getting in the hotel and getting getting away from what's
(14:20):
been a picty first four games at home against Michigan
Tech and BC.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
But you go to North Dakota and North Dakota is.
Speaker 4 (14:30):
I mean it looks so good last week and at
Saint Thomas and it was like, I just don't know
on what, Like I don't know that North Dakota shouldn't
be a bigger favorite. It's like or should be a favorite.
In what I'm saying, I just think they should be favorite.
I think that should be a bigger favorite. Like I
think they should be around minus one sixty in this,
I don't see Minnesota as minus one funny, and I
(14:52):
don't see Minnesota as a one and a half Paul favorite.
So I'm taking the I'm taking the behindmost.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
Send this soup, you know, let's make it to evy
six style.
Speaker 4 (15:01):
I'm thinking the soup North Dakota Fighting Hawks minus one
bet as long as you're going back two decades, what's
the over under on the number of Holy Cross jerseys
worn by North Dakota fans?
Speaker 3 (15:13):
Well, tuns bill high that goes, that goes into it
might get to triple digits.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
Like, I think you'd have to put the over under
somewhere in the high seventies.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
I'd love to see a purple and do a purple
and how many of those Holy Cross jerseys still?
Speaker 3 (15:30):
Bet?
Speaker 2 (15:31):
But that's a bet for it some other day that's
highn't fit?
Speaker 3 (15:36):
Yeah, can we bet on negative numbers?
Speaker 2 (15:40):
Oh man, Well, let's go to our pizza money game
and the pizza money game is one where the odds
are so long that if you feel like you could
spend the money, you would have spent on a pizza.
Go ahead on that game. First year head coach Brendan
Riley at l I U his cousin Brett a number
(16:00):
of players with him. Brendan brought some for me. I
see so rebuilding there at l IU and Penn State.
We've heard lots about Gavin McKenna. Guy Gadowski is hosting
with his Nitney Lyons over under his six and a half.
Here's the numbers on this one. L IU the underdog
(16:21):
at plus five point twenty and Penn State the home
favorite at minus eight fIF poul.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
That's a pretty big number.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
I don't well, we'll get some big ones, especially toward
the NCAA tournament time, where we might get a minus
and it's a four figure number on the favorite.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
But this is a pretty high number.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
You know. I'm the conservative one here. We say this.
We said this last week, and I'm up twenty dollars.
Dan's down twenty dollars. He bet his pizza money. I
saved my last week. I still can't make the bet,
but I don't mind this bet. If you made it,
I think LU when you look at what they've done
(17:02):
thus far, a six to one win their last game out,
But they also you're talking about a four to two
loss to a good Boston University team on the road,
and then a three to two loss in overtime in
a six to one win against Kannesians. So when you're
looking at their results this far, they're not giving up
(17:23):
a ton of goals. This is a good Penn State team.
We know that they have plenty of offense. They'd like
to shoot the puck. Will they score a ton? That's
the big question. If you think that Lu's defense can come,
come and show up and limit this Penn State team
and find a way to win, this is a good
value bet. There's no doubt you're not going to get
a better value, probably for maybe the rest of the
(17:45):
regular season. But I'm just keeping my pizza money again.
I have forty dollars of my pockets through two weeks.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
I throw my if I throw my Monopoly money episode what,
I don't even know that people still use Monopoly money
or is it now like Monopoly credit card or something
like that.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
I don't I don't owe money. Is Monopoly money.
Speaker 4 (18:04):
Now, yeah, if I'm throwing if I'm throwing my monocle
bout and picking this game, I'm actually, you know what,
this is going to be the rare case, and I'm
going to look to regret saying this I have done.
Speaker 3 (18:16):
I'm ordering pizza like I'm not. I'm not I'm not
touching best one ill. Like, look how many times ed
you and I are have been in Atlantic cocky very
long Jimmy was in the war.
Speaker 4 (18:29):
How many times do we see teams go and give
it a good show, Like they'll go out and they'll
they'll they'll be down one through the first period, or
they'll be down you know, they'll be even with a
team through the first period the half. But then you
get outshot something like fifty five to fifteen. When the
game's over, forty five to fifteen, and you lose the
game four to one. Like that's probably where this game goes.
(18:52):
And that's you walk out and if you're lu and
you go, wow, we go great for thirty five minutes
or then Penn state it was just that good.
Speaker 3 (19:00):
Hey, we've seen games like this happen all the time.
Speaker 4 (19:02):
That's why for the first time I think I wouldn't
even touch the plot coin plus two and a half.
I think this is going to wind up being one
of those games that when it's all set and done,
there's gonna be like twenty five shot period for Penn State.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
Either the first or the second.
Speaker 4 (19:17):
Probably going to be a little bit tighter because Lu
has just buckled it on depense, and then the buckle
league breaks and then Penn State goes on a run,
scores a couple of goals, maybe gets power play in there,
and then they're off to the races. I think you
walk out of this weekend if you're happy, l I
you you lose a couple of games, maybe five to
one or one. Maybe there's a blow up complete blog
(19:40):
in there, but string together in good twenty minutes and
you'll be happy.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
But I'm not.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
That sounds about right, and all the pressure in this game,
in these games is on Penn State. Lu's coming in there.
To use the phrase playing with house money. So should
be fun though, But I'll point out one last thing
before we break. Penn State has not been impervious. They
did lose six to four to a Clarkson team that
(20:10):
lost three to one to Canecius that l I U
took into overtime, so you know, I know it's it's.
Speaker 3 (20:17):
Our friend properties of wins and losses.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Yeah, or the what do they call it, the circle
of suck that a BU fan puts together every year
where everybody is beating everybody in a big circle. Anyway,
that's going to wrap it up. One last thing. None
of us bet on these games. We just talked about them.
We stay away from college hockey betting. I just don't bet, period,
but have fun and bet with your head, not over it.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
For Jim conwey fly bet, I have kids, you're applying
money to bet? No.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Well, I will say this, you bet on more sports
than I have. But it's like a like a friend
said the other day, if you're reading this post, you
have more passing yards than the Jets had today as
they were minus ten. So your sports betting over my zero, ever,
(21:15):
is not any big achievement anyway. For Jim Connolly, For
Dan Rubin, I'm ed Trevsker. This has been usc ch
O edge
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