Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Usccho dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome to us cho Edge For Friday, October third, twenty
twenty five, I met Trapska alongside Jim Connolly, and each
week we'll get together and look at some of the
odds on some of the biggest games in college hockey,
plus some other things, including today when we'll talk about
futures and Jim, maybe we'll start out there, give us
(00:33):
like the executive summary, the elevator, pitch the TLDR on
what that means and if.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
The TLDR and now you really sounded hip there hip
their ad good good day, I guess first, and it's
good to be back with you for another season of
the USCCHO podcast. But so futures simple, who is going
to win the national championship?
Speaker 3 (00:56):
That's what this picks. Then many sports have other type
of futures. Who might win their.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Leading championships, who might win, who might advance to the
Frozen Four, who might make the NCAA tournament, all of
that stuff. We're going to stick with the simple who
win the national championship.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
If you find those.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Other bets out there, you might I don't have we
don't have access. DraftKings is who we use for odds
and these are who we give.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
So that is really what it is.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
You have to make a bet at some point today
in the next few months. But the odds continue to
change based on how teams perform in the regular season.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
This is a total preseason.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
These are the odds you're going to get today on
every one of those teams.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Let's start out with Penn State. Can one player mean
this much of a difference? They are the favorite among
the betters to win the national championship. Their number is
plus five hundred, meaning if you bet one hundred, you
get five hundred back if you win.
Speaker 1 (01:56):
Not great value, whereas we always talk about value on
the show, really surprising. I'll tell an anecdote, like, for
years I've had some friends that say, oh, give me
a pick. Now, you and I we talk about this,
Dan as well. We talk we don't make bets on
college hockey. We'll talk about them. We don't make the
best of ourselves. And people always ask who should I
(02:17):
bet for a national champion in college hockey? The sexy
pick to me, I always thought was Penn State because
they were always somewhere around plus four thousand, plus five thousand.
But now Gavin mckenner, a couple of other high profile recruits.
They're coming off the program's first Frozen four, so they
are the favorite to win the national champion, not the
(02:38):
defending national champion as you usually see.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
And if you look at our polls right.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
Now and all the polls in the country, Western Michigan
is the number one team in the country, but they're
not even close to the top.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
We'll get to them in a second. But I'm just.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Surprised that there it can be this skewed toward Penn State.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Now, we were talking about this before we got on
the air. End.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Sometimes this is just a lot of money goes to
it early, so they a book maker will lower the odds.
So maybe DraftKings has already taken some action. But this
looks like a number that is around where it opened,
So I don't think this has moved. This is really
people knowing about Gavin mckinner in sports books, knowing that
(03:21):
they're going to take a lot of.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Action on Penn State this year.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Second on the list that plus six hundred is Michigan State.
They were a little bit of a disappointment with the
upset loss last year. They've lost Isaac coward, but they've
also replenished. That seems like a fair number right there.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
To me.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
I think it is, And this is the team I
thought was going to be the favorite coming into this season.
I think that they, as you mentioned, lost is is
a coward, but they have plenty of talent on that team,
and obviously Adam.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
Nightingale has done great things since he got there.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
So I actually think that this number should be right
about six hundred, maybe the better value. If they lose
a couple of games early it gets up to plus
one thousand. That's when you want to bet it if
you're really intent on touching Michigan State here. But I
think that this was my preseason favorite here Michigan still.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
Another team that's got to be on a lot of
people's list is a preseason favorite is Boston University. They're
plus eight hundred. Let me also mention Michigan to round
out the top four at plus one thousand. Bus understandable.
J Pandolpho has had great success every year, just got
a contract extension. We expect them to be in the mix.
Michigan has been just right on the cusp. Is this
(04:41):
the year maybe they get over the edge.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
It maybe it is in these lines. Certainly Boston University
they've been to. I think it's three straight frozen fours.
You're now in a position where you're looking at a
team that historically puts themselves in a position, so that
number is always going.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
To be low.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
They have some East and recruiting class coming in, including
Ryder Richie coming down from the CHL.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
That's a pretty big name to watch for.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
But when I look at a Michigan in some of
these teams, when I even look at the top, you'll
get into a couple shortly. There's a lot of just
name brand name recognition is what's moving these numbers. Yes,
I know both Michigan and BU will be good, but
I still think that if you're going to tie up
(05:29):
money on a futures bet for an entire year, I
like them to have a little bit more punt. For
teams like BU or Michigan still only getting ten to
one on your odds, I don't love either any of
these low numbers.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
I'm always a guy. I tend to.
Speaker 1 (05:49):
Start my looking in a future's bet somewhere in the
plus three thousand categories.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
I want to at least get thirty to one back
on my money.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
Let's round out the top ten. Then we'll talk some
of those value numbers. Minnesota is plus thirteen hundred, as
is BC, North Dakota and Denver plus fifteen hundred. In
Maine and Western Michigan plus two thousand.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
So there's your defending national champion plus two thousand.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
Just crazy to me.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
I think that they really are the team that might
be one.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
Of the best values on the board right now. I
know that they lost a lot.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
Alex Bump was a great player and he's not on.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
That roster this year. I get it.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
But once you've won, good things can happen. We've seen
it's rare that we've seen teams win a national championship
and then not at least be competitive the next season.
Another one I'm going to look at there is Boston College.
I think that they're fifth overall. Really, with Minnesota, they're
both thirteen plus thirteen hundred, so that's the fifth overall pick.
(06:53):
BC's the fifth overall pick in Hockey East as well.
So I think again, name recognition earlier in the season
and any of the brand need name teams, if you
like them, wait a little while on them, because if
there is some changes. If they don't pull off four
out of six wins to start the season, those as
(07:13):
will change.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
Let me just hit on a few before we go
to break. That seem to me to be in that
value category. You're talking about Quinnipiac at plus thirty five hundred,
Arizona State at plus thirty five hundred. You Mass in
there too with that number in Providence at plus four thousand,
even Omaha at plus thirty five hundred. What do you
think about some of these?
Speaker 1 (07:35):
I'll tell you Quinnipiac and Arizona State real good value
bets you Mass, I'm not sold on. That's another recentcy bias.
I think a little bit. People are remembering that they
won a national championship out less than five years ago,
so they'll get.
Speaker 3 (07:51):
Thrown in there.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
I will see that's a team that could They're just
going to be very young up front.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
I think that.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
There's some value in here. This is where we started
to look at it. Providence was the number two pick
and Hockey East. They won a national championship ten years ago.
Still the same coaches to have a lot of the
pedigree from that national championship, and people have high expectations
for this Providence team, so there's some value there with
them at plus four thousand. I think once you get
(08:20):
past there, I know I'm going to I'll throw out
a few teams. Yukon plus five thousand is one that
I looked at and saw, But after that, I didn't
see a ton of teams that stood out to me
and I said, oh, that's really good, like teams like
UMass loll at plus ten thousand a little high, and
then you're getting into that plus fifteen thousand race that's
(08:41):
really looking for a bit of a miracle.
Speaker 3 (08:44):
At this point, I don't.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
Think there's not a team really in that range that
has the Frozen.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
Four experience that I could expect.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Maybe Harvard at plus twenty thousand, but I'm assuming that
there's some education behind that, and it's just not believed
that this year's Harvard team will be as strong.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Well, we'll revisit the futures as the season goes on
and keep an eye on how they shift and move
as teams get underway. We're going to take a quick
break right now, and when we return, we'll look at
three key games for this weekend.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
Welcome back to Uscho Edge.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
We've got three games on the docket that really stand
out to us the first pairing Quinnipiac at Boston College.
They've started the season together three out of the last
four seasons. In this game, the home standards are the
favorite at minus two point thirty, the visiting Bobcats plus
one seventy five, and the over under is what it
(09:40):
always is at this time of year, five and a
half before they figure out how teams are going to play.
Speaker 3 (09:45):
It's funny.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
I'll get this out of the way for us, and
I actually, if I'm going to make a bet in
the first week of the season on over under, I'm
only taking over because there's more mistakes that happened early on.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
It's usually the game is.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
Later in the season and to get into more of
those three to one three two type of games.
Speaker 3 (10:03):
I feel like these games can be pretty high scoring.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
So anytime you see an over under a five and
a half, if you're feeling it.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Go over.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
That's all I'll say this weekend. In terms of this line,
I actually think this line is skewed a bit. I
think Quitnipiac is a better team. I know they're on
the road, I know this is Boston College, but this
is a Boston College team that is pretty untested. Jacob
Foller is not between the pipes anymore. I believe we'll
see Yan Cork tonight. I'll be on the call of
(10:33):
this game, so I've talked to both coaches and have
a good feel for both lineups. I think Brandon Pecknol
knows his team is pretty good that he's got coming
back here.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
I look at both these.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
Teams as being they are going to be teams that
are in the top ten much of the year.
Speaker 3 (10:49):
But I think quinnip is the very team.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
If I had to make a pick right now, I'd
take that plus one seventy five.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
That's a lot of value for the box.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Another Hockey East game, two rivals meeting at the d
of the season. Merrimack is at UMass Lowell the home
standing river Hawks or minus two ten. Merrimack is plus
one sixteen again five and a half on.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
The Yeah, I'm gonna I don't know. I haven't talked
to anybody, but it astill.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
This is one of those games that should have been
in January or something like that, and somebody at a
building conflict and now it's being played on the opening
night of the season.
Speaker 3 (11:23):
You don't obviously see league.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Play that early, but great to get a rivalry gained
this early. I love it in the first week of
the season. I think this line is set. Merrimack does
not have high expectations this season.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
We'll see.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
But there's a ton of new faces between these two teams.
I believe you'll have twenty eight new players between these
two teams that are available for tonight, between grad transfer
CHL players coming in later years from U Sports, or
just players from the CHL coming in with full four
years of eligibility. There's some new faces on these rosters
(12:00):
here for these two teams. Number one, I like the
river Hawks here at home minus two to ten. Not
great price on them, so I'd probably stay away from it.
The minus five and a half on the over under
here again, if you get a better I'd go over.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
And I certainly would with this last match that would
go over even before I tell you who they are,
and I would go over if it was like six
and a half. But anyway, this is a matchup Penn
State at Arizona State that probably Greg Powers and Guy
Gadowski worked out like three seasons ago before any of
them knew what was going on before Arizona State would
(12:40):
join the NCCHC, before Penn State would land a likely
number one draft pick. Penn State at Arizona State. It
is actually six and a half. When I look at it,
it should have put my reading glasses on six and
a half. So yeah, I would still take the over,
but it's minus one SEVENTI for the visiting Penn State
(13:03):
Nitney Lions, they're the favorite. Arizona State a mild underdog
at home at plus one thirty five.
Speaker 1 (13:10):
A great well set line here. I think that this
might be the best game of the weekend, and for
very different reasons than maybe we think we're going to
see some of the newest experimentation on display.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
You mentioned Gavin McKinnon.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
There's a player on Arizona State who played in the
American Hockey League, is under.
Speaker 3 (13:29):
Had an AHL contract.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
He de committed, if you will, from the pro ranks,
and he's at Arizona State. Now. I'm sure getting some
nil money. This might be one of the better nil
battles too.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
There's a lot of money between these two schools.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
We don't really know what the real nil numbers are
at this point, how much each roster is paying out
to its players, but I would say that these two
teams are at the top.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
So this I'm going to call this the nil battle right.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Here, we probably have college teams with a higher salary
level than the Buffalo Sabers right now. I got to
to that that was meant just in a little snarky way.
By the way, those Penn State Arizona State games at
mullit Areena are going to be on NHL Network. That's
how big a deal it is. But we'll bring you
(14:19):
us Echo Edge every week, have some fun about some
of the top games, and once in a while things
like those futures. But we'll wrap it up here for
Jim Connley, I'm ed Trefsker and this has been us
Cho Edge