Get ready for the 151st Run for the Roses with top handicappers Marco D'Angelo, Kelly Stewart, and Sean Alvarez! Direct from Las Vegas, this powerhouse trio breaks down the 2025 Kentucky Derby, sharing expert predictions, longshot picks, and betting strategies to help you cash in on the biggest race of the year.
What You'll Get:
-Top contenders and underdog picks for the Kentucky Derby
-Proven betting tips from professional handicappers
-Analysis of odds, track conditions, and key race factors
-Marco's legendary insights—his clients turned $390 into $9,069 in 2018!
Introduction 00:00
Kentucky Derby Contenders: #8 Journalism 3-1 (Marco) 3:00
#7 Luxor Cafe 15-1 (Sean) 4:45
#9 Burnham Square 12-1 (Marco) 7:00
#4 Sovereignty 5-1 (Sean) 9:50
Weather Predictions 12:30
#17 Sandman 6-1 (Marco) 13:40
#21 Baeza - Also Eligible if there is a Scratch 16:15
Kentucky Derby Live Long Shots: #10 Grande 20-1 (Sean) 19:20
#3 Final Gambit 30-1 (Marco) 21:00
What is an Exacta? 22:50
#19 Chunk of Gold 30-1 (Sean) 24:15
#13 Publisher 30-1 (Marco) 26:55
#14 Tiztastic 20-1 (Sean) 29:00
Marco’s Top Selections for The Kentucky Derby 32:00
Sean’s Top Selections for The Kentucky Derby 34:45
What You'll Get:
-Top contenders and underdog picks for the Kentucky Derby
-Proven betting tips from professional handicappers
-Analysis of odds, track conditions, and key race factors
-Marco's legendary insights—his clients turned $390 into $9,069 in 2018!
Introduction 00:00
Kentucky Derby Contenders: #8 Journalism 3-1 (Marco) 3:00
#7 Luxor Cafe 15-1 (Sean) 4:45
#9 Burnham Square 12-1 (Marco) 7:00
#4 Sovereignty 5-1 (Sean) 9:50
Weather Predictions 12:30
#17 Sandman 6-1 (Marco) 13:40
#21 Baeza - Also Eligible if there is a Scratch 16:15
Kentucky Derby Live Long Shots: #10 Grande 20-1 (Sean) 19:20
#3 Final Gambit 30-1 (Marco) 21:00
What is an Exacta? 22:50
#19 Chunk of Gold 30-1 (Sean) 24:15
#13 Publisher 30-1 (Marco) 26:55
#14 Tiztastic 20-1 (Sean) 29:00
Marco’s Top Selections for The Kentucky Derby 32:00
Sean’s Top Selections for The Kentucky Derby 34:45
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Kentucky Derby only a few days away. I'm Kelly Stewart,
also known as Kelly in Vegas, joined by the Pony
pundits Marco DiAngelo and Sean Alvarez. Guys, I'm excited to
be hosting this today, mainly because I'm gonna be sitting
here taking notes for my own Kentucky Derby bets. We're
gonna be talking contenders, we're gonna be talking long shots,
(00:22):
and of course we're gonna get premium selections for the
Kentucky Derby from Marco and Sean. Welcome into the show, gentlemen.
I am so excited to get started. Marco, can you
give yourself like a little bit of a Let's give
you your bio if you will into your horse racing background.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Well, Kelly, obviously I love betting the ponies, and everybody
at this time of the year says they are an
expert about handicapping horses. I do it all year long,
and I also own breed and race horses, and I've
done it since nineteen eighty six. So when I break
the races down, you're getting it from a perspective of
(01:03):
somebody that handicaps the races and somebody that actually understands
how the racing world works and what goes on behind
the scenes. So we've done very well with our horse selections,
and a couple of years ago we hit that big
Kentucky Derby big score. We turned a three hundred and
ninety dollars investment into like nine thousand dollars that day.
(01:24):
We're looking to have a score on Saturday. Can't guarantee
a nine thousand dollars score, but you know, any score
is a good score.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
Before I ever replace a race bet, I always tax
Marco or Sean Alvarez and Sean, if you remember a
few years ago, I was in Lake Tahoe, you had
a nice score yourself that well you didn't share with me.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
Well, you know, missing that text message. You were busy
on Lake Tahoe. I didn't get the text message, and
you know, I don't want to bug you, but yeah,
we did pick out Magei. Team to one came back
with the nice little three hundred and thirty dollars Exacta.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
So it's kind of where I.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Like to cut my teeth when it comes to these
these big races. Let's, you know, expose that two hundred
and ten million dollars that was betting the Kentucky Derby
last year, and let's you know, win some exact dos
and trifectas we can. We can place win bets, you know,
any other race of the year. So definitely looking forward
to the one hundred and fifty first running of the
Kentucky Derby.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
Yeah, I'm looking forward to it as well. So let's
get into some of these contenders. We're just gonna do
a little roundtable style here. Get your thoughts on some
of these horses that have lower odds and lower odds
for a reason. Number eight journalism Marco currently three to one.
I've heard this horse's name over the last several weeks.
(02:46):
Tell me why you think they are contender.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Well, this is the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and
deservedly so. This is a horse that tad five career starts.
He's won four of the five career starts, including four
st The horse is getting better with every start. He's
the horse that owns the highest buyer speed figure in
the race. He earned that two races back with a
(03:10):
one to eight buyer figure, came back and ran another
triple digit buyer in his last race. In that last
race in which he won. The asterisk to that was
he really didn't need to win that race to get
into the Derby. He already had enough points, so they
definitely were gonna win the race if they could win it,
but they weren't gonna over extend the horse in that
(03:33):
race because you want to have gas left in the
tank for the Derby. And he still won that race
rather easily, came back in the stretch. They made the
one big run in the stretch and he did what
he does best. What I like about him in this field.
When you've got a field of twenty, you're gonna hear
a lot of talk on other horses about deep closers
(03:55):
and how they are at the mercy of the pace,
traffic and everything else. This horse has tactical speed Kelly,
meaning he can break out of the gate, decide where
he needs to be, and breaking from the post eight
I think is ideal for him. This is the horse
that is going to be tough to beat.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
Sean another horse well that is also getting a lot
of play, and maybe that's because it sounds like a
place I would eat in Vegas at three o'clock in
the morning from the seventh post, position Luxor Cafe currently
fifteen to one.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
Yeah, Luxer Cafe in Vegas has a great shrimp cocktail
special after two am. But yeah, this is a This
is a Japanese bread or a Japanese horse that's coming
over from Japan. And you know, kind of a knock
that I'm hearing a lot about it about this horse is
the Japanese usually send their best crop of colts and
(04:54):
phillies over to Dubai, and the trainer felt that, you know,
that wasn't necessarily the best route to win the Kentucky Derby.
And in years past we haven't seen Japanese horses win
the Kentucky Derby. So maybe this is a little bit
of a pivot. Let's not go through that big travel
schedule of you know, going from Japan to Dubai and
then over to Kentucky for the Kentucky Derby. So I
(05:17):
don't think that's necessarily a big knock. Maybe, you know,
we're just trying to switch up, you know, switch up
their running style and how they get to the Kentucky Derby.
So this is a horse that you know, if you
watched Marco and I last year, I was really big
on Forever young maybe not as big on Luxer Cafe
this year, but if you look at the sire of
(05:37):
this horse, he's by American Pharaoh, you know, not necessarily
a horse that just won the Kentucky Derby, a horse
that won the Triple Crown and then went on to
win the breeders got Classic. So this horse has bred
to run long. He's been running long over in Japan.
And then one of the big things that I really
like about this horse coming to Kentucky compared to a
lot of these other horses, he's gonna face off again
(06:00):
nineteen other horses in the starting gate, something that a
lot of these American horses have never seen before and
they're never gonna see again in their career.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
Yet.
Speaker 3 (06:09):
Over in Japan, this horse is averaging about fourteen fifteen
horses in the starting gate that he's been going up against.
So he's been able to work out trips. Obviously he's
been the better horse in those races, but being able
to manage that, you know, getting around working on a
trip against those type of horses. I think that's a
big angle leading up into the Kentucky Derby, having to
(06:32):
go up against nineteen others.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
You guys, talk about post positions a lot in a
horse that's sitting in the ninth spot Burnham square twelve
to one, Marco, Can you gotta tell me why we're
showcasing these guys that are in the middle of the post.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Well, Kelly, when you get a twenty horse field and
there's not a lot of really odds on type horses,
even journalism, who is the best horse in the race
was at three to one, You're gonna get a lot
of prices. Burnham square twelve to one, I think is
a very good price on this horse. I got to
actually see this horse race in person. I was in
(07:09):
Florida Gulf Stream Park for the Holy Bull Stakes and
we bet this horse and he made a tremendous move
around the final turn and just ran the field down
in the stretch. This is one of those deep closers
that we talk about. He's at the mercy of the pace. Now.
By that, what I mean is if you're sitting way
(07:30):
back in the race, I don't care how fast your
horse is. If they go too slow in the first
half of the race, you're not gonna make that time up.
You just can only go so fast. But what you
need is them to go either honest fractions the first
half of the race or fast fractions, because that means
the front end is going to start coming back to
(07:51):
you and as you were using your closing kick, you're
going to be passing those horses. Now the problem, and
Sean just talked about twenty horse field, that's the other
problem that closers have. Picture yourself on a highway, Kelly,
You're on a three lane highway. You're in the middle lane. Okay,
you got Grandma on the inside. You go and real slow.
(08:15):
You're behind a car in the middle. You want to
get out around him, but there's somebody in the outer
lane blocking you. That's what can happen to horses and
twenty horse fields. And unlike cars, the brakes don't work
as good and the accelerator doesn't work as fast. If
you have to stop a horse's momentum in a race
(08:36):
because he runs up on the back of somebody, that's
called the horse having to be checked, he takes a
second to get back into gear and that can cost
you a race. So they need everything to work in
his favor. I think this source will be flying. And
another plus that he has is Brian Hernandez is the
jockey on this horse the Kentucky Derby. Make no mistake
(08:58):
about it. It's the super Bowl, uh, the equivalent of
the super Bowl. And you always hear about, you know,
nerves of people the first time they're in a super Bowl,
or how hard it is to win your super Bowl.
How many great quarterbacks never won a super Bowl. Well,
that goes the same way with some of these jockeys.
The fact that Brian Hernandez won the Kentucky Derby last
year gives him a big advantage on not having the butterflies,
(09:21):
having the patients and knowing what he needs to do.
I think you're gonna see a fast pace in this
race because of where the speed horses. Drew is gonna
guarantee us honest fractions. This horse is gonna be coming
at the end of them. Don't overlook Burnham Square at
a price.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
That stop Sean, we have sovereignty the fourth position here
five to one. Currently, you guys are saying, as a contender,
tell me why.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
Yeah, you know, kind of like Marco had said, you know,
we're gonna get speed in this race. This is a
This is one of those that's gonna come from the back.
This is a Dolphin owned horse, and go. Dolphin's been
spending millions and millions and millions of dollars on the
young colts trying to get their first Kentucky Derby. So
this is a really good shot for them. Five to
(10:12):
one on the outside, and you kind of have to
dig a little bit deeper into this colt's running form
just to kind of see the race that you want
to see and run back where he didn't really beat
much at least in my opinion, in the Florida Derby
last time out. In the Fountain of Youth two starts back,
he beat beat River Thames, he beat Tappan Street who
(10:35):
Tapping Street also defected out of this race. And then
the third place finisher in that race was Neo Equos,
And that's kind of one of those where it's Neo
Equis is a name your price type of a horse.
I don't think anybody's gonna shy away from giving you
eighty to one if you want that. So the fact
that that's the third place horse coming out of that
those two races, it's not necessarily.
Speaker 4 (10:56):
Something I want to hang my hat on.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
But if you really kind of go under the cover
and look at that that uh that start three starts
back in the Grade three street sense over this church
Hill downs track. He won going away by five lengths.
And if you look at who he beat in that race,
it's the likes of Testastic and Sandman, Uh, two horses
that I know, at least my in my opinion, and
(11:19):
you know a lot of sharp opinions that I respect,
really like the the likes of Sandman and Tistastic. So
over this dirt track, over this uh this church Hill
dirt track, like I mentioned, I really think that that's
a race that if he can get back to that
type of race, then we're gonna see the likes of
this uh this whole this coal you know, late late
(11:42):
in the wire and uh he's being sired by in
a mischief We've always joked or at least you know
people in southern California and a mischief. Colts can can
basically run on Highway one oh one if we asked
him to. These horses can can run the distance. They
can run over dirt tracks, they can run over a
wet track if we if if that comes up on Saturday,
so sovereignty, you're gonna have to swallow a little bit
(12:05):
lower of a price at five to one, but definitely
a contender comes Saturday.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Sean. I didn't want to interrupt you and ask for
the weather report there on Saturday, but what are we hearing?
This is Wednesday afternoon, so still a few days away,
But we've seen some really crazy conditions there. Every every
let's say decade, we get just an absolute mud pit.
Speaker 5 (12:27):
What are we thinking for Saturday? Are we? Are we
expecting dry weather?
Speaker 3 (12:31):
Yeah, so there's definitely weather in the forecast. However, it's
going down a little bit as far as the amount
of rain that that should land, at least in the
forecast from what I've seen, So we're maybe looking at
a little bit more of a wet track on Friday,
probably good to yielding on the turf course. But these
Churchill tracks are really meant to drain well. The superintendent
(12:55):
and his crew are also really in touch with that
that weather forecast, so a lot of these a lot
of what you'll see is they'll seal the track. It's
really just kind of compounding that dirt track and letting
the water kind of run off and run into that
rail and drain and where that water is gonna drain.
So I don't think necessarily we're gonna get a wet track.
(13:15):
We may get a little bit of a soft turfooting,
but I do think that we're gonna get a fair
dirt track, at least for the Kentucky Derby.
Speaker 5 (13:23):
I love it when we get good weather.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
Marco DiAngelo in the seventeenth post position, we have a
six to one horse named sand Man.
Speaker 5 (13:32):
I always think it's fun when they kind of have
more creative names. This one's not so much. But there's
a reason why you like this horse.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
Well, Sandman is a horse. It's been ultra consistent. This
is a horse that's gonna be making his ninth career
start now. I point that out because for me, when
you're looking at the younger horses that we're talking with
three year olds, I think the sweet spot for these
horses entering the Kentucky Derby is between four and six stars.
We talk about how horses can make big jumps. You know,
(14:04):
the light bulb goes on. Whatever you want your horse
to peak that first Saturday in May, when you've got
nine career starts already, you pretty much are gonna be
what you are now. What this horse is is a
very good horse. He's one of those stone closers that's
gonna be coming at the end, has that big closing
(14:24):
kick coming off a win in the Arkansas Derby. But
if you watch that race, it was perfectly set up
for him. They had two horses on the front end
that was going absolute suicide fractions. They were never going
to sustain that for the full race, and he picked
them up and put them down through the stretch to
get the win. The only thing I'm going to point
(14:46):
out with this horse is he's gonna have those problems
about the closers that we talked about with the other horse.
But I think this horse is gonna get over bet
a little bit. And why I say that he's sitting
at six to one now. One of the minority owners
of this horse is Griffin Johnson. If you don't know
the name, then you're not on social media. This is
(15:08):
a social media influencer that owns part of this horse,
and he puts out TikTok videos just about every day
regarding this horse's trip to the Kentucky Derby. And because
of the name Sandman, they put a lot of music
tool entered Sandman. If you're a big metallica Rocker Fan,
(15:28):
you know the song. And so this horse is gonna
get bet more than he should be bet.
Speaker 4 (15:34):
Here.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Does he deserve being on your ticket, Absolutely, but I
think you're not gonna get the fair value of what
this price should be on this horse in this race.
But he is a contender for sure, all right.
Speaker 5 (15:47):
Marco, Really quickly.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
Every year it seems like we have a scratch, at
least in modern racing history. Let's talk about a horse
that you think we should be keeping our eyes on.
Speaker 5 (15:58):
If that seems to be the case.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Well, there's only one also eligible this year, and that
a horse's name is Baason. If somebody scratches between we're
doing this on Wednesday afternoon and Friday morning, I believe
nine am is the scratch deadline. If somebody spikes a
fever whatever and pulls out of the race, Baeza gets in.
(16:21):
If he gets in, slide him onto your ticket. Okay,
this may actually be the best horse in the race
that might not get the race. And the only reason
he's not in here is he just missed on points.
And the reason he missed on the points is he
finished second in the Santa Anita Derby, which normally would
have got him fifty points. Instead, he only got thirty
(16:42):
seven and a half I believe because they changed the
points system because there was only five horses in that race,
and that ended up costing him the derby. This is
a horse to be reckoned with. And I'll let Sean
tell you who he's related to, because Sean likes his
brothers a lot.
Speaker 4 (17:04):
May come on.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Now, I don't know why that went way over my head. Sorry,
I was like, how am I gonna scramble out of this?
But you know, we also talk about, you know, human
connections and you know whether or not trainers are getting
their horses ready, and jockeys whether or not you know
what horse they're gonna pick to ride, because that's how
they're gonna get paid. They get ten percent of whatever
(17:28):
that horse is making off that purse. So we talked
about John Sheriff's. John Sheriff's is one of those trainers
that literally just lets the horse tell them when he
wants when they want to run. He doesn't push their horses.
So he was a late bloomer.
Speaker 4 (17:43):
You know.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
It took him three starts to break his maiden and then,
like Marco said, ran a big race in the Santa
Anita Derby. But on top of that, you know, my
favorite jockey in the country, I think he's the best
jockey in the country is Flavian Pratt. And when I
talk about human connections, this is Flavian talk pick to
ride if he gets into the main field. Fleavian Pratt
(18:04):
is off of Neo equist the number two and back
onto this number twenty one. So you know, take that
with you know, for what it's worth, what I believe
is the best jockey, that's who he wants to ride.
So definitely not gonna overthink that, and he will absolutely
be on my ticket if he gets in.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
All right, guys, Sean Alvarez, let's give him a little
publicity here right now. He's got a full selection up
over at wager talk dot com. We've got exact as,
we've got pick threes, we've got pick fives of course
for the Oaks as well as the Derby. Sean is
also sharing some of his best bets for the cards
this weekend at Churchill Downs. Get his full selections and
(18:43):
best bets for just thirty bucks wt dot Buzz backslash sa.
Now let's go to my favorite part of the show
and that's those long shots, right, We're all wanting a
long shot to get in there and hope thing that
you have it in your exactor or your trybox. Sean,
(19:04):
I'm gonna let you go first. Grande twenty to one.
We were finally starting to speak my language.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
Yeah, big old Price twenty to one. And if you
look at like I said in the previous segment, look
at the human connections, it's Todd Pletcher, it's Micropoli, and
it's Johnny Velasquez, you know, probably a hall of fame trainer,
hall of fame jockey to ride this horse. And like
like we've spoke about, there is speed in this race,
and like journalism, you really need to have tactical speed
(19:31):
out of the gate to knocket shuffled back, but you
also just need that kind of that closing kick. And
if you look at the first two races in this
horse's career, he won going away by two and a
half lengths in both, but he was in touch with
those leaders. He had that tactical gate speed to be
in a part of that kind of pay centers. But
(19:52):
in his last start in the Wood Memorial Grade two,
last last time out, he chased Rodriguez, who had that,
you know, the race to himself kind of on a
loose lead, wasn't being challenged, and Dylan Davis had this
horse way further back. I think it was a good,
really tactical trip to get ready for the Derby, and
a trip that I would like to see now. Dylan
(20:13):
Davis hops off, Johnny Velasquez jumps on, who rode this
horse in his first two starts, So you get a
little bit of comfort from the jockey. He knows the horse,
he can be up if they go too slow. I
don't think they're gonna go too slow. I think they're
gonna really set up for this horse's closing kick. And
being sired by Curlin, this horse should be able to
(20:34):
run forever. So definitely looking forward to seeing what kind
of price we can get out of a morning line
of twenty to one.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
Marco, a horse that you're looking at at a thirty
to one price. Final gambit, sitting there in the third position.
Speaker 5 (20:51):
Talk to me about this horse.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
We've got quite a few thirty and twenty one horses
on this list. I'm really enjoying.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
This absolutely, Kelly In. This is a horse that has
just four career starts, So this horse is nowhere near peaked.
What I will tell you about is the question mark
is he's trying dirt for the first time he had
been racing. He raced one race on turf, then he
raised his other races on a synthetic surface. Now we
(21:20):
don't know how he's gonna respond until he does it. Obviously,
Brad Cox, one of the best trainers in the country,
thinks he can handle the dirt. I remember a horse
several years ago was one of my other great Kentucky
Derby scores. Was a horse named Animal Kingdom. He brought
me back a big price for win in that race,
and he was making the jump from turf to dirt
(21:44):
for the Kentucky Derby, and he got the job done.
This horse. If you go back and look at his
last race, the Jeff Ruby Stakes, he made a move.
He was sitting dead last. He went from eleventh to
the winter circle. Not only did he swoop the field
that final turn and through the stretch, he drew off
after he cleared. That was one scary move. And if
(22:08):
he does anything close to that on this dirt surface
and the race sets up with the fast early fractions,
he's gonna be a big price that last race. His
buyer speed figure was a ninety. His previous high was
a sixty five. So you talk about these lightly raced
horses that can make the big jumps, well that was him.
(22:28):
He made one of those big jumps, and if he's
got another big jump in him, he could be right
there at a big price. I'm gonna go ahead, look
at him on the bottom end of some of my
exotics at a big price.
Speaker 1 (22:41):
Marco really quick, Just for those falling along at home,
explain to me what an exotic is.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
An exotic is either an exacta, tri effecta or superfecta.
EXACTA is you're picking the first two horses in the
exact order. Exacta, hence tri EFFECTA is picking the first
three horse and a super EFFECTA is picking the first
four in that particular race. There are other bets Kelly
(23:08):
that are called pick threes, pick fours, pick five's. Those
are sequence bets where you're betting them over a period
of races the winners. You can also take those exactest
superfectus tries all of those and whenever you make the
bet instead of having to have it exact instead of
saying one two, you can say, give me an exact
the box one two, and that means when you say box,
(23:31):
you get it both ways one two two one, But
those two have to finish first and second.
Speaker 5 (23:37):
Thank you, Marco.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Sometimes we get a little ahead of ourselves and forget
that there are still newbies watching our videos. Thank you
to all of you guys who've been hanging out with
us here. We are learning a lot about this year's
Kentucky Derby and Sean a name that I like right
I know where else it's a bet on horses because
of names, and I know I keep bringing it up,
but it's so much fun to have really cool names.
Speaker 5 (23:58):
This sort of the name is chunk of gold. Thirty
to one.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
Yeah, and at that price, he's possibly if he wins,
he's gonna make people a chunk of gold. So talk
about a rag's the richest story. Back in October of
twenty twenty three, this horse was purchased for just twenty
five hundred dollars and now you know, two years later
he's in the Kentucky Derby starting gate and you know, honestly,
at thirty to one, we're probably gonna see maybe maybe
(24:25):
close to fifty to one, sixty to one, trained by
Ethan West, ridden by Jared Loveberry. Not necessarily household names
that you know, people are used to, you know, turning
on their TV and betting on. So this is another
closer that you know, hopefully gets that pace scenario set
up in his favor and then can come closing late
(24:47):
and with the post position he got all the favors
in the world. He can let the eighteen horses on
his inside battle for position, gun for the lead, sit back,
what have you, you know, whatever they wanted do, and
Jared Loveberry can kind of see what they're doing, come over,
get his horse into a good settling position and then
make that one big run. So you know, that's one
(25:11):
thing that I really like about this horse is that
he really shouldn't have too much traffic trouble except for
you know, maybe turning from home having a gun down
those you know, those horses in front of them. And
you know, a couple of weeks ago, I was out
to breakfast with a very sharp horse racing handicapper and
he said one of his one of the angles that
he really likes is, you know these older trainers going
(25:33):
slow fast, slow fast as far as training goes, and
that's what you see out of this horse's work pattern
leading up of this Kentucky Derby. Had a really not
a slow but a mediocre forty nine to one and
then a bullet fifty nine and two and basically did
that in sequence back over again. And those are his
first his works leading up into this Kentucky Derby, so
(25:54):
not household names as far as the human connections go.
And I think that we can get probably better than
thirty to one, And even if he doesn't win this race,
he can definitely spice up those exact as and trepectas
that we were just talking about.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
All right, Marco, another horse that is thirty to one
in the thirteenth post position. Publisher, talk to me about
this horse and why you think they are worth maybe
a sprinkle to win this race?
Speaker 2 (26:23):
All right, Kelly, Live update for you, Kelly. The horse
you own with me just finished fourth race. Very game.
Was hung the entire to the three quarter poll and
Sean can tell you that's a horrible trip and never
got a breathere. Gave it up in deep stretch to
finish fourth. We had the lead about eighth of a
(26:44):
mile from the finish line. But that was a good
finish for our horse. For publisher, this horse number thirteen,
lucky number thirteen. If you're not superstitious, and I'm not
thirty to one, we get Ortiz, you know, another of
the top jockeys in the country. This horse really intrigues
(27:06):
me because he's still a maiden and yet he found
his way into the Kentucky Derby. And for the newbies
out there, maiden means the horse hasn't won a race yet.
He's managed to get enough points on the Derby trail
to get into the Kentucky Derby without winning a race.
He's had seven career starts. He's finished second or third
(27:27):
in five of those seven races. That in itself is good,
but this horse has had troubled trips in numerous of
his races, and that's part of the reason why he
hasn't won yet. If he gets a clean trip, and
now we're asking a horse that does like the race
from behind to get a clean trip and stay out
(27:48):
of trouble. If everything goes his way, this horse, I feel,
can hit the ticket at a big number. He was
closing on sand Man, and I want to use this
comparison because a lot of people love Sandman in this race.
If you like Sandman, he's six to one, Publishers thirty
(28:09):
to one and had trouble in the race, had to
get checked because of a horse pinching him off, and
still was flying to finish second to Sandman. So I
can get Sandman at six to one, I can get
Publisher at thirty to one. You want to talk about value,
we talk about plus ev. I think this horse needs
(28:30):
to be on your ticket, and if everything goes right,
he might find his way to the top of the
ticket and really light up your toteboard. His last three races,
his buyer numbers have continued to improve eighty one, eighty six,
and then a jump to ninety five in his last race.
Another jump puts him right there with the top contenders
(28:51):
in this field.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
Sean, another horse with a fun name, Tis Fantastic, is
on your list as a lot shot twenty to one
in the fourteenth slot.
Speaker 4 (29:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
So the fourteen Testastic and the thirteen Publisher that Marco
just talked about our stablemates, both being trained by Steve Asmussen.
And you know one thing we tend to see, especially
leading up to the Kentucky Derby, is that everybody is suddenly,
you know, a workout reporter.
Speaker 4 (29:23):
They all of a sudden they know exactly how the
horse is.
Speaker 3 (29:26):
Training, how they're leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and
everybody wants to know what those workout reports look like.
And if you're paying attention to that right now, everybody's
talking about how, you know, tes Tastic is supposed to
be the better ask Mussen trained, but Publisher looks better
than him on the on the track working out. But
if you look back how this horse trained at Oakland,
(29:49):
he's never been a good workout horse. In the morning,
he kind of is full of himself and you know,
being by a damn by tap it, that's the It's
kind of what we expect out of these type of horses.
So doesn't necessarily like the mornings. I would not even
come close to, you know, hanging my hat on the
(30:10):
workout reports. He's he's been running or working out that way,
and he got into the Kentucky Derby, So I wouldn't necessarily,
you know, worry about that too much. And if you
look at what he did last time out in Louisiana Derby,
Joel Rosario took him back a lot further back than
what his jockeys have done with them in previous races
and what that did. And granted they were cooking up front,
(30:33):
but it just got his This horse was able to relax,
made his one run and one going away. So Joel
Rosario takes the ride, takes the mountain back for the
Kentucky Derby. I think we see a very similar trip
to that, and you know, Joel knows kind of how
to get that trip out of this horse. So hopefully
(30:54):
they cook early and we'll see if this horse can
make that one run come into the strep.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
Marco DiAngelo has been in the horse business longer than
I've been alive. Is that a joke, No, it's not.
It's for real. Marco has owned bred race horses since
the nineteen eighty. So when Marco shares his selections, you
are getting top tier information from someone who knows this
(31:20):
sport inside and out. Right now, you can get his
Kentucky Derby selections, including his MLB, NBA and NHL plays
on Saturday for just thirty nine bucks. If use coupon
code Derby ten, get you ten dollars at check out.
All right, guys, we gotta know We're gonna get into
some best bets here.
Speaker 5 (31:40):
I'm gonna let Marco go first.
Speaker 2 (31:43):
All right, my top four for the Derby, and again
if we have that scratch, this definitely order will change
for me. I think Mike for Sean as well. But
I've got number eight Journalism on top. We've already talked
about him. Number eighteen is my second choice, Sovereignty. I
didn't get to talk about him. This is a Billmont
(32:04):
trained horse. Five career starts, two wins, two seconds. He
enters in this race second in the Florida Derby. I
point that out for two reasons. One, the horse that
won the Florida Derby would have been one of my
choices in this race, cappain Street, but unfortunately suffered an
injury last Saturday in his final workout and had to
(32:26):
be withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby. So the only horse
that beat him out of the Florida Derby's not in here.
And history has shown that over the last you know,
decade or so a couple of decades, actually the best
path to the Kentucky Derby winner circle is through the
Florida Derby. That is another reason why I like sovereignty.
(32:50):
So much, and his strength is I think he loves
the added distance of the Kentucky Derby. These horses will
be going this distance a mile in a quarter for
the first time in their careers. The way he closed
into Florida Derby tells me he wants more distance. I'll
take him a second. Third horse for me is number
(33:12):
ten Grande. This is a horse that I think is
improving at the right time. He only has three career starts.
The only knock against him is he's entering this race
through the Wood Memorial. As good as the Florida Derby
is for producing Kentucky Derby winners, the Wood Memorial has
been the least productive. But he went a big race.
(33:35):
In that race. The horse that won that race Bafford
horse Rodriguez. A lot of people will talk about him
in the Kentucky Derby. That horse had a perfect race,
and Grande was hung the entire race four and five wide,
covered a ton of ground, and came from behind off
of slow fractions. I told you how hard that is
(33:58):
to do. If he takes another step forward, only three
career starts, he could be right there and rounding out
my field. I talked about him already number nine Burnham Square.
So for me, it's eight, eighteen, ten and nine are
my four choices for the Kentucky Derby.
Speaker 1 (34:16):
All right, Sean, take us home with your Kentucky Derby selections.
I know you're going to be selling some of your exactas,
your tries, your pig threes, and of course we are
other selections for the Oaks.
Speaker 5 (34:27):
But I'm going to put you on the spot.
Speaker 4 (34:29):
I need give me.
Speaker 5 (34:31):
Just give me something easy.
Speaker 1 (34:32):
Give me a two horse exact A box for the
Kentucky Derby, and then of course give me the four
horses that you will be wagering on Saturday.
Speaker 4 (34:41):
Two horse exact A box.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
You know, I'm glad that Marco and I are kind
of on that same page. I would say that's going
to be the eight Journalism and the number ten Grande
at twenty to one. We're going to kind of go
into my top two selections. And while I do believe
that the number eight Journalism is by far the best
horse in the field, I just don't want to swallow
that price up top. I don't want to put that
(35:06):
as my number one pick, just in case people are
betting on the win end. There's plenty of other races where
you can have a lot more of a confident opinion
if you want to bet on the win end. And
I really do think that journalism is going to be
around that two to one five to two type of number.
So my top pick is going to be Grande. I
talked about him briefly earlier. Marco just talked about him.
(35:28):
I agree with everything he said. He was chasing a
loose leader in Wadriguez. That is not gonna be the
case come Saturday. In this Kentucky Derby race. I believe
he's gonna be paid, chasing a contested quick and early
pace and kind of set up for that closing kick.
I love that Johnny v is back on to ride.
(35:48):
Nothing against Dylan Davis, but love the human connections that
know how to win a Kentucky Derby. And I won't
talk too much about journalism. Like I said, the best
horse in the race, we're gonna try and beat them
up top, but not a horse that I'm willing to
be bullish on and keep them off my ticket. So
(36:10):
the number eight journalism will be my second choice. I
spoke about the number seven, the Japanese horse Luxer Cafe or,
like Kelly says, where you can get a two am
shrimp cocktail in Vegas. I hope that I'm not one
year too late, being so I loved forever young. Last
year ran a big race, so hopefully we can get
(36:32):
somewhere around that. Fifteen to one on this Japanese horse,
number seven Luxer Cafe, and just got done talking about
the number fourteen tis tastic at twenty to one, so
that's gonna be my selections. Number ten Grande over the
number eight Journalism, the number seven Luxer Cafe, and the
number fourteen Testastic.
Speaker 1 (36:51):
Thank you to Sean and Marco for all of their
insight on this year's Kentucky Derby. You guys can check
out all of our other videos here on the wager
Talk YouTube channel. I know Marco and Sean have both
done some solo stuff in addition to this video. Again,
make sure you guys hit that like button give us
(37:11):
some thoughts in the comment section. We'd love to hear
from you, and of course don't forget to be subscribed
so you never miss another video here on the wager
Talk YouTube channel
The Kentucky Derby only a few days away. I'm Kelly Stewart,
also known as Kelly in Vegas, joined by the Pony
pundits Marco DiAngelo and Sean Alvarez. Guys, I'm excited to
be hosting this today, mainly because I'm gonna be sitting
here taking notes for my own Kentucky Derby bets. We're
gonna be talking contenders, we're gonna be talking long shots,
(00:22):
and of course we're gonna get premium selections for the
Kentucky Derby from Marco and Sean. Welcome into the show, gentlemen.
I am so excited to get started. Marco, can you
give yourself like a little bit of a Let's give
you your bio if you will into your horse racing background.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Well, Kelly, obviously I love betting the ponies, and everybody
at this time of the year says they are an
expert about handicapping horses. I do it all year long,
and I also own breed and race horses, and I've
done it since nineteen eighty six. So when I break
the races down, you're getting it from a perspective of
(01:03):
somebody that handicaps the races and somebody that actually understands
how the racing world works and what goes on behind
the scenes. So we've done very well with our horse selections,
and a couple of years ago we hit that big
Kentucky Derby big score. We turned a three hundred and
ninety dollars investment into like nine thousand dollars that day.
(01:24):
We're looking to have a score on Saturday. Can't guarantee
a nine thousand dollars score, but you know, any score
is a good score.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
Before I ever replace a race bet, I always tax
Marco or Sean Alvarez and Sean, if you remember a
few years ago, I was in Lake Tahoe, you had
a nice score yourself that well you didn't share with me.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
Well, you know, missing that text message. You were busy
on Lake Tahoe. I didn't get the text message, and
you know, I don't want to bug you, but yeah,
we did pick out Magei. Team to one came back
with the nice little three hundred and thirty dollars Exacta.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
So it's kind of where I.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Like to cut my teeth when it comes to these
these big races. Let's, you know, expose that two hundred
and ten million dollars that was betting the Kentucky Derby
last year, and let's you know, win some exact dos
and trifectas we can. We can place win bets, you know,
any other race of the year. So definitely looking forward
to the one hundred and fifty first running of the
Kentucky Derby.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
Yeah, I'm looking forward to it as well. So let's
get into some of these contenders. We're just gonna do
a little roundtable style here. Get your thoughts on some
of these horses that have lower odds and lower odds
for a reason. Number eight journalism Marco currently three to one.
I've heard this horse's name over the last several weeks.
(02:46):
Tell me why you think they are contender.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Well, this is the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and
deservedly so. This is a horse that tad five career starts.
He's won four of the five career starts, including four
st The horse is getting better with every start. He's
the horse that owns the highest buyer speed figure in
the race. He earned that two races back with a
(03:10):
one to eight buyer figure, came back and ran another
triple digit buyer in his last race. In that last
race in which he won. The asterisk to that was
he really didn't need to win that race to get
into the Derby. He already had enough points, so they
definitely were gonna win the race if they could win it,
but they weren't gonna over extend the horse in that
(03:33):
race because you want to have gas left in the
tank for the Derby. And he still won that race
rather easily, came back in the stretch. They made the
one big run in the stretch and he did what
he does best. What I like about him in this field.
When you've got a field of twenty, you're gonna hear
a lot of talk on other horses about deep closers
(03:55):
and how they are at the mercy of the pace,
traffic and everything else. This horse has tactical speed Kelly,
meaning he can break out of the gate, decide where
he needs to be, and breaking from the post eight
I think is ideal for him. This is the horse
that is going to be tough to beat.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
Sean another horse well that is also getting a lot
of play, and maybe that's because it sounds like a
place I would eat in Vegas at three o'clock in
the morning from the seventh post, position Luxor Cafe currently
fifteen to one.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
Yeah, Luxer Cafe in Vegas has a great shrimp cocktail
special after two am. But yeah, this is a This
is a Japanese bread or a Japanese horse that's coming
over from Japan. And you know, kind of a knock
that I'm hearing a lot about it about this horse is
the Japanese usually send their best crop of colts and
(04:54):
phillies over to Dubai, and the trainer felt that, you know,
that wasn't necessarily the best route to win the Kentucky Derby.
And in years past we haven't seen Japanese horses win
the Kentucky Derby. So maybe this is a little bit
of a pivot. Let's not go through that big travel
schedule of you know, going from Japan to Dubai and
then over to Kentucky for the Kentucky Derby. So I
(05:17):
don't think that's necessarily a big knock. Maybe, you know,
we're just trying to switch up, you know, switch up
their running style and how they get to the Kentucky Derby.
So this is a horse that you know, if you
watched Marco and I last year, I was really big
on Forever young maybe not as big on Luxer Cafe
this year, but if you look at the sire of
(05:37):
this horse, he's by American Pharaoh, you know, not necessarily
a horse that just won the Kentucky Derby, a horse
that won the Triple Crown and then went on to
win the breeders got Classic. So this horse has bred
to run long. He's been running long over in Japan.
And then one of the big things that I really
like about this horse coming to Kentucky compared to a
lot of these other horses, he's gonna face off again
(06:00):
nineteen other horses in the starting gate, something that a
lot of these American horses have never seen before and
they're never gonna see again in their career.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
Yet.
Speaker 3 (06:09):
Over in Japan, this horse is averaging about fourteen fifteen
horses in the starting gate that he's been going up against.
So he's been able to work out trips. Obviously he's
been the better horse in those races, but being able
to manage that, you know, getting around working on a
trip against those type of horses. I think that's a
big angle leading up into the Kentucky Derby, having to
(06:32):
go up against nineteen others.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
You guys, talk about post positions a lot in a
horse that's sitting in the ninth spot Burnham square twelve
to one, Marco, Can you gotta tell me why we're
showcasing these guys that are in the middle of the post.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Well, Kelly, when you get a twenty horse field and
there's not a lot of really odds on type horses,
even journalism, who is the best horse in the race
was at three to one, You're gonna get a lot
of prices. Burnham square twelve to one, I think is
a very good price on this horse. I got to
actually see this horse race in person. I was in
(07:09):
Florida Gulf Stream Park for the Holy Bull Stakes and
we bet this horse and he made a tremendous move
around the final turn and just ran the field down
in the stretch. This is one of those deep closers
that we talk about. He's at the mercy of the pace. Now.
By that, what I mean is if you're sitting way
(07:30):
back in the race, I don't care how fast your
horse is. If they go too slow in the first
half of the race, you're not gonna make that time up.
You just can only go so fast. But what you
need is them to go either honest fractions the first
half of the race or fast fractions, because that means
the front end is going to start coming back to
(07:51):
you and as you were using your closing kick, you're
going to be passing those horses. Now the problem, and
Sean just talked about twenty horse field, that's the other
problem that closers have. Picture yourself on a highway, Kelly,
You're on a three lane highway. You're in the middle lane. Okay,
you got Grandma on the inside. You go and real slow.
(08:15):
You're behind a car in the middle. You want to
get out around him, but there's somebody in the outer
lane blocking you. That's what can happen to horses and
twenty horse fields. And unlike cars, the brakes don't work
as good and the accelerator doesn't work as fast. If
you have to stop a horse's momentum in a race
(08:36):
because he runs up on the back of somebody, that's
called the horse having to be checked, he takes a
second to get back into gear and that can cost
you a race. So they need everything to work in
his favor. I think this source will be flying. And
another plus that he has is Brian Hernandez is the
jockey on this horse the Kentucky Derby. Make no mistake
(08:58):
about it. It's the super Bowl, uh, the equivalent of
the super Bowl. And you always hear about, you know,
nerves of people the first time they're in a super Bowl,
or how hard it is to win your super Bowl.
How many great quarterbacks never won a super Bowl. Well,
that goes the same way with some of these jockeys.
The fact that Brian Hernandez won the Kentucky Derby last
year gives him a big advantage on not having the butterflies,
(09:21):
having the patients and knowing what he needs to do.
I think you're gonna see a fast pace in this
race because of where the speed horses. Drew is gonna
guarantee us honest fractions. This horse is gonna be coming
at the end of them. Don't overlook Burnham Square at
a price.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
That stop Sean, we have sovereignty the fourth position here
five to one. Currently, you guys are saying, as a contender,
tell me why.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
Yeah, you know, kind of like Marco had said, you know,
we're gonna get speed in this race. This is a
This is one of those that's gonna come from the back.
This is a Dolphin owned horse, and go. Dolphin's been
spending millions and millions and millions of dollars on the
young colts trying to get their first Kentucky Derby. So
this is a really good shot for them. Five to
(10:12):
one on the outside, and you kind of have to
dig a little bit deeper into this colt's running form
just to kind of see the race that you want
to see and run back where he didn't really beat
much at least in my opinion, in the Florida Derby
last time out. In the Fountain of Youth two starts back,
he beat beat River Thames, he beat Tappan Street who
(10:35):
Tapping Street also defected out of this race. And then
the third place finisher in that race was Neo Equos,
And that's kind of one of those where it's Neo
Equis is a name your price type of a horse.
I don't think anybody's gonna shy away from giving you
eighty to one if you want that. So the fact
that that's the third place horse coming out of that
those two races, it's not necessarily.
Speaker 4 (10:56):
Something I want to hang my hat on.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
But if you really kind of go under the cover
and look at that that uh that start three starts
back in the Grade three street sense over this church
Hill downs track. He won going away by five lengths.
And if you look at who he beat in that race,
it's the likes of Testastic and Sandman, Uh, two horses
that I know, at least my in my opinion, and
(11:19):
you know a lot of sharp opinions that I respect,
really like the the likes of Sandman and Tistastic. So
over this dirt track, over this uh this church Hill
dirt track, like I mentioned, I really think that that's
a race that if he can get back to that
type of race, then we're gonna see the likes of
this uh this whole this coal you know, late late
(11:42):
in the wire and uh he's being sired by in
a mischief We've always joked or at least you know
people in southern California and a mischief. Colts can can
basically run on Highway one oh one if we asked
him to. These horses can can run the distance. They
can run over dirt tracks, they can run over a
wet track if we if if that comes up on Saturday,
so sovereignty, you're gonna have to swallow a little bit
(12:05):
lower of a price at five to one, but definitely
a contender comes Saturday.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Sean. I didn't want to interrupt you and ask for
the weather report there on Saturday, but what are we hearing?
This is Wednesday afternoon, so still a few days away,
But we've seen some really crazy conditions there. Every every
let's say decade, we get just an absolute mud pit.
Speaker 5 (12:27):
What are we thinking for Saturday? Are we? Are we
expecting dry weather?
Speaker 3 (12:31):
Yeah, so there's definitely weather in the forecast. However, it's
going down a little bit as far as the amount
of rain that that should land, at least in the
forecast from what I've seen, So we're maybe looking at
a little bit more of a wet track on Friday,
probably good to yielding on the turf course. But these
Churchill tracks are really meant to drain well. The superintendent
(12:55):
and his crew are also really in touch with that
that weather forecast, so a lot of these a lot
of what you'll see is they'll seal the track. It's
really just kind of compounding that dirt track and letting
the water kind of run off and run into that
rail and drain and where that water is gonna drain.
So I don't think necessarily we're gonna get a wet track.
(13:15):
We may get a little bit of a soft turfooting,
but I do think that we're gonna get a fair
dirt track, at least for the Kentucky Derby.
Speaker 5 (13:23):
I love it when we get good weather.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
Marco DiAngelo in the seventeenth post position, we have a
six to one horse named sand Man.
Speaker 5 (13:32):
I always think it's fun when they kind of have
more creative names. This one's not so much. But there's
a reason why you like this horse.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
Well, Sandman is a horse. It's been ultra consistent. This
is a horse that's gonna be making his ninth career
start now. I point that out because for me, when
you're looking at the younger horses that we're talking with
three year olds, I think the sweet spot for these
horses entering the Kentucky Derby is between four and six stars.
We talk about how horses can make big jumps. You know,
(14:04):
the light bulb goes on. Whatever you want your horse
to peak that first Saturday in May, when you've got
nine career starts already, you pretty much are gonna be
what you are now. What this horse is is a
very good horse. He's one of those stone closers that's
gonna be coming at the end, has that big closing
(14:24):
kick coming off a win in the Arkansas Derby. But
if you watch that race, it was perfectly set up
for him. They had two horses on the front end
that was going absolute suicide fractions. They were never going
to sustain that for the full race, and he picked
them up and put them down through the stretch to
get the win. The only thing I'm going to point
(14:46):
out with this horse is he's gonna have those problems
about the closers that we talked about with the other horse.
But I think this horse is gonna get over bet
a little bit. And why I say that he's sitting
at six to one now. One of the minority owners
of this horse is Griffin Johnson. If you don't know
the name, then you're not on social media. This is
(15:08):
a social media influencer that owns part of this horse,
and he puts out TikTok videos just about every day
regarding this horse's trip to the Kentucky Derby. And because
of the name Sandman, they put a lot of music
tool entered Sandman. If you're a big metallica Rocker Fan,
(15:28):
you know the song. And so this horse is gonna
get bet more than he should be bet.
Speaker 4 (15:34):
Here.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Does he deserve being on your ticket, Absolutely, but I
think you're not gonna get the fair value of what
this price should be on this horse in this race.
But he is a contender for sure, all right.
Speaker 5 (15:47):
Marco, Really quickly.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
Every year it seems like we have a scratch, at
least in modern racing history. Let's talk about a horse
that you think we should be keeping our eyes on.
Speaker 5 (15:58):
If that seems to be the case.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Well, there's only one also eligible this year, and that
a horse's name is Baason. If somebody scratches between we're
doing this on Wednesday afternoon and Friday morning, I believe
nine am is the scratch deadline. If somebody spikes a
fever whatever and pulls out of the race, Baeza gets in.
(16:21):
If he gets in, slide him onto your ticket. Okay,
this may actually be the best horse in the race
that might not get the race. And the only reason
he's not in here is he just missed on points.
And the reason he missed on the points is he
finished second in the Santa Anita Derby, which normally would
have got him fifty points. Instead, he only got thirty
(16:42):
seven and a half I believe because they changed the
points system because there was only five horses in that race,
and that ended up costing him the derby. This is
a horse to be reckoned with. And I'll let Sean
tell you who he's related to, because Sean likes his
brothers a lot.
Speaker 4 (17:04):
May come on.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Now, I don't know why that went way over my head. Sorry,
I was like, how am I gonna scramble out of this?
But you know, we also talk about, you know, human
connections and you know whether or not trainers are getting
their horses ready, and jockeys whether or not you know
what horse they're gonna pick to ride, because that's how
they're gonna get paid. They get ten percent of whatever
(17:28):
that horse is making off that purse. So we talked
about John Sheriff's. John Sheriff's is one of those trainers
that literally just lets the horse tell them when he
wants when they want to run. He doesn't push their horses.
So he was a late bloomer.
Speaker 4 (17:43):
You know.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
It took him three starts to break his maiden and then,
like Marco said, ran a big race in the Santa
Anita Derby. But on top of that, you know, my
favorite jockey in the country, I think he's the best
jockey in the country is Flavian Pratt. And when I
talk about human connections, this is Flavian talk pick to
ride if he gets into the main field. Fleavian Pratt
(18:04):
is off of Neo equist the number two and back
onto this number twenty one. So you know, take that
with you know, for what it's worth, what I believe
is the best jockey, that's who he wants to ride.
So definitely not gonna overthink that, and he will absolutely
be on my ticket if he gets in.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
All right, guys, Sean Alvarez, let's give him a little
publicity here right now. He's got a full selection up
over at wager talk dot com. We've got exact as,
we've got pick threes, we've got pick fives of course
for the Oaks as well as the Derby. Sean is
also sharing some of his best bets for the cards
this weekend at Churchill Downs. Get his full selections and
(18:43):
best bets for just thirty bucks wt dot Buzz backslash sa.
Now let's go to my favorite part of the show
and that's those long shots, right, We're all wanting a
long shot to get in there and hope thing that
you have it in your exactor or your trybox. Sean,
(19:04):
I'm gonna let you go first. Grande twenty to one.
We were finally starting to speak my language.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
Yeah, big old Price twenty to one. And if you
look at like I said in the previous segment, look
at the human connections, it's Todd Pletcher, it's Micropoli, and
it's Johnny Velasquez, you know, probably a hall of fame trainer,
hall of fame jockey to ride this horse. And like
like we've spoke about, there is speed in this race,
and like journalism, you really need to have tactical speed
(19:31):
out of the gate to knocket shuffled back, but you
also just need that kind of that closing kick. And
if you look at the first two races in this
horse's career, he won going away by two and a
half lengths in both, but he was in touch with
those leaders. He had that tactical gate speed to be
in a part of that kind of pay centers. But
(19:52):
in his last start in the Wood Memorial Grade two,
last last time out, he chased Rodriguez, who had that,
you know, the race to himself kind of on a
loose lead, wasn't being challenged, and Dylan Davis had this
horse way further back. I think it was a good,
really tactical trip to get ready for the Derby, and
a trip that I would like to see now. Dylan
(20:13):
Davis hops off, Johnny Velasquez jumps on, who rode this
horse in his first two starts, So you get a
little bit of comfort from the jockey. He knows the horse,
he can be up if they go too slow. I
don't think they're gonna go too slow. I think they're
gonna really set up for this horse's closing kick. And
being sired by Curlin, this horse should be able to
(20:34):
run forever. So definitely looking forward to seeing what kind
of price we can get out of a morning line
of twenty to one.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
Marco, a horse that you're looking at at a thirty
to one price. Final gambit, sitting there in the third position.
Speaker 5 (20:51):
Talk to me about this horse.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
We've got quite a few thirty and twenty one horses
on this list. I'm really enjoying.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
This absolutely, Kelly In. This is a horse that has
just four career starts, So this horse is nowhere near peaked.
What I will tell you about is the question mark
is he's trying dirt for the first time he had
been racing. He raced one race on turf, then he
raised his other races on a synthetic surface. Now we
(21:20):
don't know how he's gonna respond until he does it. Obviously,
Brad Cox, one of the best trainers in the country,
thinks he can handle the dirt. I remember a horse
several years ago was one of my other great Kentucky
Derby scores. Was a horse named Animal Kingdom. He brought
me back a big price for win in that race,
and he was making the jump from turf to dirt
(21:44):
for the Kentucky Derby, and he got the job done.
This horse. If you go back and look at his
last race, the Jeff Ruby Stakes, he made a move.
He was sitting dead last. He went from eleventh to
the winter circle. Not only did he swoop the field
that final turn and through the stretch, he drew off
after he cleared. That was one scary move. And if
(22:08):
he does anything close to that on this dirt surface
and the race sets up with the fast early fractions,
he's gonna be a big price that last race. His
buyer speed figure was a ninety. His previous high was
a sixty five. So you talk about these lightly raced
horses that can make the big jumps, well that was him.
(22:28):
He made one of those big jumps, and if he's
got another big jump in him, he could be right
there at a big price. I'm gonna go ahead, look
at him on the bottom end of some of my
exotics at a big price.
Speaker 1 (22:41):
Marco really quick, Just for those falling along at home,
explain to me what an exotic is.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
An exotic is either an exacta, tri effecta or superfecta.
EXACTA is you're picking the first two horses in the
exact order. Exacta, hence tri EFFECTA is picking the first
three horse and a super EFFECTA is picking the first
four in that particular race. There are other bets Kelly
(23:08):
that are called pick threes, pick fours, pick five's. Those
are sequence bets where you're betting them over a period
of races the winners. You can also take those exactest
superfectus tries all of those and whenever you make the
bet instead of having to have it exact instead of
saying one two, you can say, give me an exact
the box one two, and that means when you say box,
(23:31):
you get it both ways one two two one, But
those two have to finish first and second.
Speaker 5 (23:37):
Thank you, Marco.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Sometimes we get a little ahead of ourselves and forget
that there are still newbies watching our videos. Thank you
to all of you guys who've been hanging out with
us here. We are learning a lot about this year's
Kentucky Derby and Sean a name that I like right
I know where else it's a bet on horses because
of names, and I know I keep bringing it up,
but it's so much fun to have really cool names.
Speaker 5 (23:58):
This sort of the name is chunk of gold. Thirty
to one.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
Yeah, and at that price, he's possibly if he wins,
he's gonna make people a chunk of gold. So talk
about a rag's the richest story. Back in October of
twenty twenty three, this horse was purchased for just twenty
five hundred dollars and now you know, two years later
he's in the Kentucky Derby starting gate and you know, honestly,
at thirty to one, we're probably gonna see maybe maybe
(24:25):
close to fifty to one, sixty to one, trained by
Ethan West, ridden by Jared Loveberry. Not necessarily household names
that you know, people are used to, you know, turning
on their TV and betting on. So this is another
closer that you know, hopefully gets that pace scenario set
up in his favor and then can come closing late
(24:47):
and with the post position he got all the favors
in the world. He can let the eighteen horses on
his inside battle for position, gun for the lead, sit back,
what have you, you know, whatever they wanted do, and
Jared Loveberry can kind of see what they're doing, come over,
get his horse into a good settling position and then
make that one big run. So you know, that's one
(25:11):
thing that I really like about this horse is that
he really shouldn't have too much traffic trouble except for
you know, maybe turning from home having a gun down
those you know, those horses in front of them. And
you know, a couple of weeks ago, I was out
to breakfast with a very sharp horse racing handicapper and
he said one of his one of the angles that
he really likes is, you know these older trainers going
(25:33):
slow fast, slow fast as far as training goes, and
that's what you see out of this horse's work pattern
leading up of this Kentucky Derby. Had a really not
a slow but a mediocre forty nine to one and
then a bullet fifty nine and two and basically did
that in sequence back over again. And those are his
first his works leading up into this Kentucky Derby, so
(25:54):
not household names as far as the human connections go.
And I think that we can get probably better than
thirty to one, And even if he doesn't win this race,
he can definitely spice up those exact as and trepectas
that we were just talking about.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
All right, Marco, another horse that is thirty to one
in the thirteenth post position. Publisher, talk to me about
this horse and why you think they are worth maybe
a sprinkle to win this race?
Speaker 2 (26:23):
All right, Kelly, Live update for you, Kelly. The horse
you own with me just finished fourth race. Very game.
Was hung the entire to the three quarter poll and
Sean can tell you that's a horrible trip and never
got a breathere. Gave it up in deep stretch to
finish fourth. We had the lead about eighth of a
(26:44):
mile from the finish line. But that was a good
finish for our horse. For publisher, this horse number thirteen,
lucky number thirteen. If you're not superstitious, and I'm not
thirty to one, we get Ortiz, you know, another of
the top jockeys in the country. This horse really intrigues
(27:06):
me because he's still a maiden and yet he found
his way into the Kentucky Derby. And for the newbies
out there, maiden means the horse hasn't won a race yet.
He's managed to get enough points on the Derby trail
to get into the Kentucky Derby without winning a race.
He's had seven career starts. He's finished second or third
(27:27):
in five of those seven races. That in itself is good,
but this horse has had troubled trips in numerous of
his races, and that's part of the reason why he
hasn't won yet. If he gets a clean trip, and
now we're asking a horse that does like the race
from behind to get a clean trip and stay out
(27:48):
of trouble. If everything goes his way, this horse, I feel,
can hit the ticket at a big number. He was
closing on sand Man, and I want to use this
comparison because a lot of people love Sandman in this race.
If you like Sandman, he's six to one, Publishers thirty
(28:09):
to one and had trouble in the race, had to
get checked because of a horse pinching him off, and
still was flying to finish second to Sandman. So I
can get Sandman at six to one, I can get
Publisher at thirty to one. You want to talk about value,
we talk about plus ev. I think this horse needs
(28:30):
to be on your ticket, and if everything goes right,
he might find his way to the top of the
ticket and really light up your toteboard. His last three races,
his buyer numbers have continued to improve eighty one, eighty six,
and then a jump to ninety five in his last race.
Another jump puts him right there with the top contenders
(28:51):
in this field.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
Sean, another horse with a fun name, Tis Fantastic, is
on your list as a lot shot twenty to one
in the fourteenth slot.
Speaker 4 (29:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
So the fourteen Testastic and the thirteen Publisher that Marco
just talked about our stablemates, both being trained by Steve Asmussen.
And you know one thing we tend to see, especially
leading up to the Kentucky Derby, is that everybody is suddenly,
you know, a workout reporter.
Speaker 4 (29:23):
They all of a sudden they know exactly how the
horse is.
Speaker 3 (29:26):
Training, how they're leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and
everybody wants to know what those workout reports look like.
And if you're paying attention to that right now, everybody's
talking about how, you know, tes Tastic is supposed to
be the better ask Mussen trained, but Publisher looks better
than him on the on the track working out. But
if you look back how this horse trained at Oakland,
(29:49):
he's never been a good workout horse. In the morning,
he kind of is full of himself and you know,
being by a damn by tap it, that's the It's
kind of what we expect out of these type of horses.
So doesn't necessarily like the mornings. I would not even
come close to, you know, hanging my hat on the
(30:10):
workout reports. He's he's been running or working out that way,
and he got into the Kentucky Derby, So I wouldn't necessarily,
you know, worry about that too much. And if you
look at what he did last time out in Louisiana Derby,
Joel Rosario took him back a lot further back than
what his jockeys have done with them in previous races
and what that did. And granted they were cooking up front,
(30:33):
but it just got his This horse was able to relax,
made his one run and one going away. So Joel
Rosario takes the ride, takes the mountain back for the
Kentucky Derby. I think we see a very similar trip
to that, and you know, Joel knows kind of how
to get that trip out of this horse. So hopefully
(30:54):
they cook early and we'll see if this horse can
make that one run come into the strep.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
Marco DiAngelo has been in the horse business longer than
I've been alive. Is that a joke, No, it's not.
It's for real. Marco has owned bred race horses since
the nineteen eighty. So when Marco shares his selections, you
are getting top tier information from someone who knows this
(31:20):
sport inside and out. Right now, you can get his
Kentucky Derby selections, including his MLB, NBA and NHL plays
on Saturday for just thirty nine bucks. If use coupon
code Derby ten, get you ten dollars at check out.
All right, guys, we gotta know We're gonna get into
some best bets here.
Speaker 5 (31:40):
I'm gonna let Marco go first.
Speaker 2 (31:43):
All right, my top four for the Derby, and again
if we have that scratch, this definitely order will change
for me. I think Mike for Sean as well. But
I've got number eight Journalism on top. We've already talked
about him. Number eighteen is my second choice, Sovereignty. I
didn't get to talk about him. This is a Billmont
(32:04):
trained horse. Five career starts, two wins, two seconds. He
enters in this race second in the Florida Derby. I
point that out for two reasons. One, the horse that
won the Florida Derby would have been one of my
choices in this race, cappain Street, but unfortunately suffered an
injury last Saturday in his final workout and had to
(32:26):
be withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby. So the only horse
that beat him out of the Florida Derby's not in here.
And history has shown that over the last you know,
decade or so a couple of decades, actually the best
path to the Kentucky Derby winner circle is through the
Florida Derby. That is another reason why I like sovereignty.
(32:50):
So much, and his strength is I think he loves
the added distance of the Kentucky Derby. These horses will
be going this distance a mile in a quarter for
the first time in their careers. The way he closed
into Florida Derby tells me he wants more distance. I'll
take him a second. Third horse for me is number
(33:12):
ten Grande. This is a horse that I think is
improving at the right time. He only has three career starts.
The only knock against him is he's entering this race
through the Wood Memorial. As good as the Florida Derby
is for producing Kentucky Derby winners, the Wood Memorial has
been the least productive. But he went a big race.
(33:35):
In that race. The horse that won that race Bafford
horse Rodriguez. A lot of people will talk about him
in the Kentucky Derby. That horse had a perfect race,
and Grande was hung the entire race four and five wide,
covered a ton of ground, and came from behind off
of slow fractions. I told you how hard that is
(33:58):
to do. If he takes another step forward, only three
career starts, he could be right there and rounding out
my field. I talked about him already number nine Burnham Square.
So for me, it's eight, eighteen, ten and nine are
my four choices for the Kentucky Derby.
Speaker 1 (34:16):
All right, Sean, take us home with your Kentucky Derby selections.
I know you're going to be selling some of your exactas,
your tries, your pig threes, and of course we are
other selections for the Oaks.
Speaker 5 (34:27):
But I'm going to put you on the spot.
Speaker 4 (34:29):
I need give me.
Speaker 5 (34:31):
Just give me something easy.
Speaker 1 (34:32):
Give me a two horse exact A box for the
Kentucky Derby, and then of course give me the four
horses that you will be wagering on Saturday.
Speaker 4 (34:41):
Two horse exact A box.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
You know, I'm glad that Marco and I are kind
of on that same page. I would say that's going
to be the eight Journalism and the number ten Grande
at twenty to one. We're going to kind of go
into my top two selections. And while I do believe
that the number eight Journalism is by far the best
horse in the field, I just don't want to swallow
that price up top. I don't want to put that
(35:06):
as my number one pick, just in case people are
betting on the win end. There's plenty of other races where
you can have a lot more of a confident opinion
if you want to bet on the win end. And
I really do think that journalism is going to be
around that two to one five to two type of number.
So my top pick is going to be Grande. I
talked about him briefly earlier. Marco just talked about him.
(35:28):
I agree with everything he said. He was chasing a
loose leader in Wadriguez. That is not gonna be the
case come Saturday. In this Kentucky Derby race. I believe
he's gonna be paid, chasing a contested quick and early
pace and kind of set up for that closing kick.
I love that Johnny v is back on to ride.
(35:48):
Nothing against Dylan Davis, but love the human connections that
know how to win a Kentucky Derby. And I won't
talk too much about journalism. Like I said, the best
horse in the race, we're gonna try and beat them
up top, but not a horse that I'm willing to
be bullish on and keep them off my ticket. So
(36:10):
the number eight journalism will be my second choice. I
spoke about the number seven, the Japanese horse Luxer Cafe or,
like Kelly says, where you can get a two am
shrimp cocktail in Vegas. I hope that I'm not one
year too late, being so I loved forever young. Last
year ran a big race, so hopefully we can get
(36:32):
somewhere around that. Fifteen to one on this Japanese horse,
number seven Luxer Cafe, and just got done talking about
the number fourteen tis tastic at twenty to one, so
that's gonna be my selections. Number ten Grande over the
number eight Journalism, the number seven Luxer Cafe, and the
number fourteen Testastic.
Speaker 1 (36:51):
Thank you to Sean and Marco for all of their
insight on this year's Kentucky Derby. You guys can check
out all of our other videos here on the wager
Talk YouTube channel. I know Marco and Sean have both
done some solo stuff in addition to this video. Again,
make sure you guys hit that like button give us
(37:11):
some thoughts in the comment section. We'd love to hear
from you, and of course don't forget to be subscribed
so you never miss another video here on the wager
Talk YouTube channel
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