Beat the Books! Your Daily MLB Betting Fix - Predictions & Best Bets for September 25 | Total Bases

Looking for the best MLB picks, predictions, and betting tips for Thursday, September 25, 2025? Tune in to Total Bases with expert handicappers Adam Trigger, Bryan Leonard and Tokyo Brandon as they break down today’s MLB matchups with sharp insights and actionable advice.

💡 What You'll Get in This Episode:
🔥 Updated Lines & Odds: 📊 Key movements and what they mean for today’s bets.
📌 Deep Dive Analysis: 🔍 Priority games broken down with stats, trends, and expert takes.
🚨 Top Leans & Watch-List Picks: ⚾ Stay sharp with today’s must-watch plays.
📅 Yesterday's Recap: ✅ Wins, losses, and lessons learned to refine your strategy.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
All right, welcome in everybody. It is Tuesday. It's time Thursday. Sorry,
it's Thursday. Time for Total Bases. I was talking to
Brian Lennon off air, and it's like, I can't believe
we're at the end. There's two more shows for us
in the regular season, and we're done with the regular

(00:24):
season of Major League Baseball. It's it's I kind of
can't believe it's coming to an end. But uh, you know,
when the regular season ends, the playoffs start, and we're
going to continue to do this show during the playoffs.
So just me and Brian today, we got Tokyo. Brandon
is still on his trek back to Tokyo. He'll be
back tomorrow. But Brian, I'm we both had five percent

(00:45):
winners last night and I'm looking forward to talking some
basses with you. So how how I want to So
you got to the window with that Rockies Mariners over
yesterday and it ended up being easy winner. That's awesome.

Speaker 2 (00:59):
Yeah, I'm glad you pointed that out. That didn't even
pay any attention to it. And that's something that I've
been working on the last week or so and it's
worked out very well. Is just trying to find the one,
one or two games where it just looks off and
to get such a bad picture that Colorado had, and
it was basically batting practice. If you watch the game
at all, Seattle hitting home runs everywhere. And we won

(01:23):
that game at four innings seven and a half. It
ended up scoring eleven. It's slowing. It just slowed down
the second half of the game. But yeah, thanks for
pointing that out and got our clients a nice five
percent now twenty and four on our Major League Baseball
four and five percent plays. And as we mentioned yesterday,
unless it's a five percent play, our baseball players are

(01:43):
now going to be nine dollars through the rest of
the regular season. I don't know if that continues in
the playoffs. We will see. Haven't heard from management on
that yet. But yeah, still a great time to bet
baseball if you're Unfortunately a lot of people aren't playing
attention to baseball. Fact I wanted to mention this. I
did go to the Aviators game last night they won

(02:06):
the Pacific League title. There was hardly anybody there. There
was hundreds hundreds of people there. I turned on the
Cincinnati Reds game playoffs right there in the cusp. They're
going against schemes. Nobody's at the Cincinnati Reds game. What
the hell's going on with everybody? Even the fans of

(02:27):
these teams fighting for the playoffs, have decided football is
what they're going to pay their attention to. What that's
good for me, good for my clients because I can
make more money that way. Keep that up. But yeah,
I just don't understand it. If it's on the board
and you got a better chance of winning, I don't care.
If it's tiddley winks, I'll bet it. And if there's
a line out there. Look look, look when COVID started,

(02:48):
everybody's betting table tennis, Russian table tennis. Who knew? But yeah, good,
good profit for us yesterday and uh let's continue on today.

Speaker 1 (03:00):
It's definitely it definitely is town by town, city by city.
I saw Erie, PA had a good crowd for Binghamton
Erie where the where our rumble Ponies won the Eastern
League last night. So that was you know, it's just
you know, it probably the only show in town out there,
I'll tell you where there was also a decent crowd
and where we're going to start today. So I had

(03:21):
a five percent winner yesterday on the Diamondbacks plus one
and a half was sweating that one out here on
the East Coast so well after one am, so I'm
heavily caffeinated now so i can do this show. But
that was, like, going back to what you were saying,
that was kind of it for me yesterday. I had
one spot that I loved and I almost just kind

(03:42):
of ignored everything else. For the most part, worked out
in my favor, although the Pirates ended up kind of
coming through and I don't know if I was ever
going to actually make that bet. I just thought it
was good value. But back to the Diamondbacks game, I
took the plus one and a half. I felt like
my handicap pretty much played out as I sort of
kind of spoke about, and that they would fight right
till the end. They end up cashing against the one

(04:04):
and a half, but don't win the game. Now, as
we look at the NL playoff picture, they got kind
of helped out right, The Mets didn't win, and the
Reds lost an extra inning. So this game is I
want to start with this game for a couple of reasons.
One people have asked about this series this week and
we haven't really talked about it. And two, I find
it intriguing what the Diamondbacks are going to do here.

(04:29):
So Tory Lavella, Brian not a great in game manager.
Last night, I think he cost him the game. He
bunted Perdomo in the bottom of the tenth inning and
essentially what he did after they it was a tie game,
so they just need to get the runner home from second.
So I understand why you want to move him to third,

(04:50):
I guess. But basically what he did was take the
bat out of Perdomo's hands and Corbyn Carroll's hands and
give up an out. Didn't disagree with or didn't agree
with that, and I I actually find myself disagreeing with
some of his managerial moves. But the reason I'm even
bringing this up that dude is a good motivator. I
love him for. Like I've listened to a lot of

(05:12):
his postgame talks, pregame talks of late and where he
lacks in the x'es and O's department, I think he
makes up for and getting this team ready to play,
motivating them and what I think you're gonna see here
as I think now he's out in your time so
he's probably just getting his coffee. But in a couple
hours when all those players get in for this day game,

(05:35):
I think you're gonna see the speech where it's like
where he's like every inning today is the ninth inning.
It's your last home game. So you talked about crowds,
you know, the crowded Cincinnat very good. That was a
good crowd out in Phoenix last night. Probably a lot
of Dodgers, fait I did see a lot of blue
either here nor there, but like it's their last home game,
so you should get a decent turnout for this game.

(05:56):
Obviously pretty much a playoff game for Arizona. But he's
gonna move Gallon to the Padre series. So that's why
you're looking at bullpen game today for the Diamondbacks. They're
gonna move Gallon to Friday, and they've already said we're
gonna go Gallon Rodriguez fot Friday, Saturday, Sunday in San Diego.
So I think that's almost like I'm looking at the

(06:18):
price here. I can get Diamondbacks plus one and a
half minus one ten because it's a bullpight bullpen game.
I actually kind of like that because here's what's gonna happen.
You're gonna have Jalen Beeks is likely gonna open. He'll
probably face Otani. He's essentially going out there to get
Otani and Freeman out in that first inning, and then

(06:38):
you're probably gonna get I think you're gonna get mixing
and matching until he feels comfortable enough. Maybe if he
gets a run early or something, he'll put Now Nobelle
Chris matt In, who's barely pitched in the past two weeks. Now,
this is a guy that was actually throwing the ball
pretty well. As a fifth starter. Lavello says, Hey, I'm
not going five starters anymore. We're gonna go down in
a four. So he's really threw on one inning in

(07:00):
like the last nine days. He should be fresh. He's
got like a sub three era. So we we'll do
the breakdown backwards this time, because I already kind of
gave my my spiel. He'll here and I'll go to you.
I really think that Lavello is going to have his
team motivated to be like, hey, every inning today is
the ninth inning. Every inning is the ninth inning. This
is this is the playoffs. Every innings the ninth inning.

(07:23):
We're gonna manage that right from the from the jump,
and the Dodgers maybe they Exhaley won yesterday, the Padres
lose if they're not like fully focused, that's gonna be
tough for them to have to deal with. Like leverage arm,
leverage arm, Chris matt Arizona playing for their lives. And
you're getting the plus one and a half. So I'm
actually gonna make this my parlay league Diamondbacks plus one
and a half. But I want to see your rebuttal here.

Speaker 2 (07:47):
Okay, Well, Yamamoto is has been terrific all season long.
He's gonna be on the road. As you mentioned, the
big ste lefty.

Speaker 1 (07:56):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (07:57):
The line right now is about a one seventy eight
and a half, slightly to the over, slightly to the over. Yeah,
with Yamamoto, you know what you're gonna get. The guy's
been terrific all year and one of the most consistent
pitchers in Major League Baseball, one of the few Dodgers
pitchers that just stayed healthy. This will be his thirtieth
start on the season. You can get thirty starts out

(08:18):
of anybody in Major League Baseball these days. You're having
a really good, healthy season. I can't say anything bad
about them, but the Dodgers' bullpens continues to struggle. It's
amazing with the you know we saw with the Mets
earlier saw with the Dodgers, the padres as good as

(08:39):
they have been. I believe Cleveland now has the best
bullpen in Major League Baseball, and that's without Class A
being suspended. So they've just done a tremendous job. And
they always seem to do pretty good job in the
bullpen because they just can't afford to get those high
priced starters. But yeah, I'm worried about the Dodgers' bullpen,
and you don't know how long they're going to go

(09:01):
with the starter out there today. They're getting ready for
the playoffs. They know they're in the playoffs. The very
good chance almost nothing's a lot, but a very good
chance that they win the division and they get that buy.
So yeah, if it's ballet goes five innings, I could
see Arizona coming in here and taking avantage on the

(09:22):
second half of the game. And you mentioned they did
push Gallon back Rodriguez and fought, so I would expect
you mentioned Chris Matt he pitched seventeen through the ball
seventeen pitches on Sunday. Hasn't pitched since, but he's been
terrific all year. And if you take a look at
their bullpen, none of them other than Ryan Thompson. He's

(09:42):
been used two days in a row, but it's only
fourteen total pitches. But really Garcia, who took the loss yesterday,
through thirty nine pitches the last two days. See I
believe the only one that's not available. I'm not a
big fan of this Arizona bullpen, so if I was
to play it, I'd either play the Dodger first five
or I would look maybe Arizona at Dodgers take a

(10:05):
lead into the fifth or sixth inning and Yamamoto's out
of there. Maybe a good tech come in and bet
the Arizona alive at a pretty good price.

Speaker 1 (10:16):
Yeah, Yamamoto one start at Chase Field earlier this year,
gave up five runs in five innings. I think he,
if I remember correctly, though, he didn't pitch that badly,
but he did give up a Grand Slam in that game.
I'm going off memory, but I'm pretty sure he was
like cruising along, loaded the bases and I believe it
may have been Gabby Marino or someone like that hit.

(10:37):
It took a took a deep for a Grand Slam.
Still ended up, but it's still notable. Was definitely one
of his worst starts of the season. You know you're
doing pretty good when your worst start of the year
is like five runs over five innings. That's that's pretty good.
But yeah, I can't I'm with you, Brian, I can't
say anything bad about Yamamoto. What I will say is

(10:58):
this ballpark is tough on pitchers if you pull the league.
This is everyone's favorite place to hit, and sometimes I
think over the years, you've seen aces go to the
desert and get throw worse than they Maybe you know,
it tends to be one of their bad starts. I'm
not saying that there's anything to that per se, but

(11:20):
you know, Yamamoto's had some big performances recently. Dodger Stadium's
very friendly pitcher park, not so much Chase Field and
big you know, big alleys at Chase Field, a lot
of triples out there. So again, I think it's a
I think it's a better matchup for the Diamondbacks than
what the market is suggesting with where I think people

(11:42):
are going to look at this and say, oh, Yamamoto
bullpen game, Dodgers, easy, easy win, And that's not the case.
And I think it's priced like that. So if you
can get a free run to work with here plus
one and a half minus one ten, that's a very
good bet, especially because the Diamondbacks have now showed you
twice they're not gonna quit. They are gonna scratch and
claw right till the end. And they've gotten again, and

(12:04):
they've gotten at this bullpen twice. So yeah, that'll be
my parlay. Leg I like that quite a bit. All right, Well,
let's go to this day game, because I actually can't
believe this. The Pirates win an extras yesterday. The need
to win tax is even bigger today for the Reds.
I'm actually surprised at that. We talked about it yesterday.

(12:27):
The Reds were favored against Schemes. I did a free
play video. I gave the Pirates out. They end up
getting to win. Now you got to play minus one
seventy to go against Braxton Ashcraft. Why? Because the Reds
need this game? Brian? I mean, do you see some
value on the Pirates here?

Speaker 2 (12:44):
I knew Ashcraft going for Pittsburgh. Lodolo the lefty for Cincinnati.
We're looking at about it one sixty five right now,
a total of eight. And yeah, I as much as
I like Lodolo, there's nothing wrong with Brandon Ashcraft. We're
looking at the bullpens. The problem with Pittsburgh is their

(13:04):
top four bullpen arms have all pitched back to back days.
That is the problem. Santana, Mattson, Lawrence, and Mareta of
all pitched the last four days. At least two of
them probably will not pitch in this game, and that
really shortens up this Pittsburgh bullpen. Matzinski the other day

(13:27):
pitched through a forty eight pitches on Sunday. He'll probably
come in is the first guy out of the bullpen
and try to give you some length there. And he's
actually been pitching pretty well. Look at the last two weeks.
He's ranked fifteenth in the Baseball the rankings over there
at RUSS Resources a tremendous job. But yeah, if you're

(13:49):
looking to play Pittsburgh, I think the first five is
probably the way to go. Lodolo going for for the
home team here, let's take a look at the numbers
here on Lodolo, He's he comes in with a three
point four to four ERA, three point five seven expected,

(14:11):
one point h eight whip. He's been very good in
the whip department this year, which is which is one
of his weaknesses. He's had chase rates in the nineteight
percentile walk rate ninety six percentile terrific. He's always been
pretty good with the walk rate. Doesn't allow a lot
of base runners, and that's where he's very good at.
But if you take a look at his overall numbers,

(14:33):
basically slightly better in the league average. He only throws
the four pitches all all of them uses all the time.
The center from twenty percent was for Singer at twenty nine,
so he's got four pitches is very comfortable with. But
when you take a look at the Cincinnati bullpen, let's
see how that goes. Here. Cincinnati's bullpen, it's actually in

(14:54):
a lot better shape. Pagan pitched through twenty six pitches yesterday,
but he had the previous three days off centillion seventeen
after the last two days off, so the bullpen fits
the Reds better. But let's take a look at that
first five here Sincinnati and Pittsburgh. We could catch Ashcraft
at about a one forty five and as opposed to

(15:18):
in the full game, where it's only four or five
cents differential. That's where you get your advantage in this
one Ashcraft first half. I don't want any part of
the Pittsburgh bullpen going later on in this game. They
just don't have enough arms available. So Ashcraft the first
half at a nice plus money price is the way
I'm looking at this one. It's on my list so

(15:39):
far today, Brian.

Speaker 1 (15:42):
I was just kind of trying to confirm this, and
I think this is going to be the case. So
this makes me like that, Well, I like your Ashcraft
bet because I've talked about him a ton on this show.
I'm very high on him, and I wouldn't be able
to talk you off of Ashcraft at any sort of
value ever. But I think you can look at the
Pirates full game. I think you could potentially consider Pirates

(16:04):
plus one and a half if that was a little cheaper.
I would be considering Pirates plus one and a half
as a play, but I think they they did a
good job of pricing that. I feel like a little
bit out of range. I think if it was minus
one twenty five. I'm probably in minus one forty five.
I really can't, but uh, I think you're gonna see
Hunter Barco here after after Ashcraft. And if you're unfamiliar

(16:28):
with Pirates Baseball and the Pirates organization being bad for
a long time does have its perks. It means you
get to draft all these absolute studs. The Pirates are
so loaded with young arms that and then of course
Paul Skan's overshadowed all of them, so you have I mean,
the list goes on and the next guy on that

(16:48):
list is Hunter Barco, who has been mostly a starter,
but they they've played around with him at at Triple
A a little bit more recently, bringing him out of the
bullpen him start games, so he very He kind of
snuck up and quietly made his major league debut three
three days ago through one inning in relief against the Reds.

(17:10):
He's more of a starter. He long term, he's probably
a starter, So I think you're gonna see him. I
think they're gonna pull the Bubba Chandler move here, and
I think you're gonna see this game. Go Ashcraft Barco,
and that's it unless they really need a ninth inning guy.
And that is he's he's another one right up there

(17:32):
with Bubba Chandler. Nasty stuff, I believe. Now now I'm
questioning my uh No, he is a lefty. So you're
gonna get Ashcraft for four innings really good, you know,
four or five innings, however long he can go. And
then they're gonna bring it a lefty in with equally
good stuff that these guys probably haven't seen much of.
And then they're probably gonna let him go three four innings

(17:54):
because he's really a starter, and the Pirates have done
this for what, for whatever reason, I don't think they're
gonna give him a start at this point. They kind
of had him working out of the penn in Indianapolis,
so my guest here to save to reset their bullpen.
I think you're gonna see Ashcraft as long as he
can go, Barco, as long as he can go. That
is very, very appealing. It reminds me of that game

(18:16):
maybe three four weeks ago where Ashcraft got the start
and then they brought in Bubba Chandler and he finished
the game. And I want to say they maybe shut
the Rockies out in that game. I know we talked
about it on the show, and it was not known
that they would do that, but they did. They went
Ashcraft Chandler and it was lights out. I think that's

(18:38):
what they're doing to the Reds here. I think you're
gonna see Ashcraft followed by Hunter Barco and it's gonna
be good. I think it will be good for the Pirates.
So do what you will with that. Pirates first five
is fine. Take a shot on Pirates plus one plus
one fifty, the plus one and a half, maybe the
under maybe Reds Reds team total four and a half.
I'd play under that if it's those two a couple.

Speaker 2 (19:01):
Of ops yesterday, I like that under Barco. For those
who don't know, he's the second round draft pick twenty two.
He's their fourth overall prospect right now. So here's a
top prospect for them.

Speaker 1 (19:15):
Yeah. And I think the only reason he wasn't sort
of up here starting games earlier he did have an
injury back in like May. But he's I mean, that
was a long time ago. He kind of he came
back from it kind of quickly, but I think they
were being more cautious with him because of the injury.
At this point, I mean, he's been back for a while.
So I don't think there's any effects of the injury.

(19:37):
But I do think that's why he was a little
bit slower to come up. And let's say, because he's
right in line with like a Chandler with like he's
just it's like one A, one B at this point
for the prospects in their organization, So Ashcraft, Chandler, Barco,
they're all, they're all equally as good. I just think
the reason you haven't seen him yet was his injury
kind of derailed the early part of his season. So

(19:59):
that would be what I'm absolutely gonna be watching. It's
the early game. I know, I get yelled at on
the show by the chat if I don't get some
early action out there. So I would find a way
to bet the Pirates. I would find a way to
take maybe an under. I think that Red's team total
under is a winner. I'm not a big team total guy,
but if you're getting a four and a half there,
I'll be surprised if they if they can go over that. Okay,

(20:23):
let's see all right, Yeah, I mean how could we
not how can we not talk Guardians Guardians Tigers right now? Brian?
I mean, it is just contagious in Cleveland. You've got
who is it Valera that had had a huge homera.
I mean, it's just like, you know, everyone's contributing. It's

(20:43):
it's rubbing off and it couldn't. It's it's going the
other It's like going the other way for the Tigers
where no one can they can't get out of their
own way. It's actually been kind of crazy to watch
that that it's that is unfolded like this very very
reminiscent of the Red Sox collapse the year that they
had that ten game lead or whatever and didn't make

(21:04):
the playoffs. Think, well, the Tigers can kind of think
they're lucky stars that the the A's are smacking the
astros around right now. They're kind of keeping him in
the mix. But here we go, series finale, Guardians Tigers.
Why can't I find a line for this game? Do
you haven't?

Speaker 2 (21:24):
De Try hasn't announced a picture yet.

Speaker 1 (21:26):
I see, So it's the AJ it's the potential AJ hinch.
I'll throw Kayder Montero for four innings and then throw
a bunch of other random ship which which worked last
year phenomenally, Brian, it hasn't worked for them, this year,
and I think that's part of the reason they're in
this situation.

Speaker 2 (21:42):
Yeah, I believe Montero came in and I had to
pitch Relaf unless I'm wrong. Yeah, he U the last
two nights he has had to pitch relief.

Speaker 1 (21:54):
So yeah, I just threw his name out there kind
of randomly. I I don't know who the bulk guy
is today, but it's probably not him.

Speaker 2 (22:02):
If that's the well that was, I'm sorry. That was
Rafael Mantaro, my mistake, My mistake. Rafael Montario came in
and pitched Kyder. Mantaro was the guy who was scheduled
originally to pitch today, but it's strange that it hasn't
been announced yet. So maybe, uh, they're going to do
a bullpen game or something today, or.

Speaker 1 (22:20):
They'll they'll probably open for him if if Hinch likes
a matchups just a.

Speaker 2 (22:26):
Yeah, yep, could be. Yeah, we're looking at these two
teams right now in Cleveland. Obviously whatever they're doing is
working for him. Messi's going, Uh, he's a one seventy
about a one seventy favorite right now. Catch back is
one forty one forty five take back excuse me, a

(22:47):
total of eight, but a lot of places, especially here
in Vegas, there's nothing up right now because they won't
go unless there's a They know who's going to start
for Detroit, and I just visited all the Detroit websites
and as far as I could tell, nobody's mentioning it thing.
So it's a surprise at this point who's going to start.
So I'm not going to get too involved in it.
I will say, regardless of who Detroit throws out there

(23:08):
right now, there's no way I'm laying one seventy. I
do like Messik. He's a lefty and he's a guy
I want to back. But if you look at the
Cleveland bullpen, they're best guys in the bullpen have pitched
the last two days. They didn't throw a lot of pitches,
which is good, so they may be able to come
back out and play pitch the third. And the way
Cleveland's been winning all these games, they've gotten a lot

(23:30):
of usage. Now. The good thing is when your best
pitchers get a lot of usage, that means you're winning.
The bad part is if they have too many games
in which they go, now, are they going to be
rested enough? If and when they do make the playoffs.
So I like Cleveland, but I can't can't lay that number.
Gotified in a different way to play it. You know,

(23:50):
they Detroit Tigers, this are not hitting. Let me take
a look at team totals here. Obviously without knowing who's
going for them, it's not much out there, but we're
looking at three and a half hundred one thirty. I
don't know if I'll get there because because of the
Cleveland bullpen, but it's something right now that I'm gonna

(24:12):
keep an eye on, see how this works out. I
don't want to play Detroit because of the way they're playing,
because they're just putting themselves in such a hole there.
You can just watch them. And I talked about this
and I said two days ago that they struck out
twenty the only stroke. Cleveland struck out nineteen betters for Detroit,
I made a mistake. There's two strikes on the last
guy and they hit a little ground or I believe,

(24:33):
but still when he's striking out and looking as bad
at the plate as they are right now, I don't
want any part of the Tigers. So we'll see what
they do. But at this point I can't lay the
one seventy with Cleve. That's just that's just too much.
There's plenty of value in this series on Cleveland. We've
used them in one way or another the other two games.
This one I'll probably be setting out.

Speaker 1 (24:58):
Yeah, I said yesterday and I will continue. I've said
this the whole series so far, and I'll say it
again right now. In relative relative to the side. I mean,
that's an insane price to lay with the Guardians at
this point. But there is absolutely no way that I
will put a dollar on the Detroit Tigers until they
win a game. Just can't do it. It's uh, you

(25:19):
just can't do it. I said it yesterday and yesterday
and you could have got minus one twenty five on
the on the Guardians. Now they're asking you to lay
minus one seventy five with a rookie pitcher on the mound.
I mean, listen, if you if you could make a
find a good reason to take the Tigers here, more
power to you, because that is incredible line value for

(25:41):
this Tigers team. I just can't do it. What I
could potentially do, Brian is take the over, and I'm
gonna explain why I think that this number is a
little bit low. So the Tigers for for all, forever,
for all of the sort of bad that's gone on
the past couple of weeks, they have hit lefties collectively
hit lefties well this season, which is actually very interesting

(26:03):
because their lineup is not optimal in my opinion, against
the left handed pitcher. But they actually have had a
full season. They've done well against left handed pitching. So
do what you will with that. I don't really know
what to make of that, because they don't. You don't
get your what you and I would probably construct this

(26:23):
like the ultimate optimal Tiger's lineup. You don't get that
against the lefty. However, they've done okay against left handed pitching,
so do what you will with that. Where I think
they might have a little bit of an edge here
is against MESSI why Columbus and Toledo play constantly, they
play all the time. They've probably seen him quite a
bit at the triple A level, because, of course, part

(26:44):
of the Tiger's problem is a lot of their lineup
was a triple A either last year. Earlier this year
they they finally got exposed for the four A lineup. Right,
like these guys, like you know, I pretty much anyone
other than Carrie, and you know, a couple of guys
like they're all guys that arguably could still be down
in Triple A. So that being said, they've seen a

(27:06):
lot of Messic the last two years. I feel like
Messick's got away with it a little bit. You look
at his first month in the you know, his last
the month of September, so after he obviously had that
great start against the Diamondbacks to start his career, and
I think the next one was against the Rays. Two
tremendous starts this month. His whip is one point five
to seven. Now the ERA is okay, he's got a three,

(27:29):
So he has a three ERA in four September starts.
His era's three batting average against three thirty. That's not great.
Whip one point five to seven, that's not great either.
That's four starts in September for Messick. I do feel
like if the Tigers were gonna break out a little bit,
it might be against him. I feel like this is
a reasonable spot for them to get a couple of runs.

(27:52):
But right now, Brian, the Guardians are just feeding off
of each other. It's timely hit after timely hit, and
they're still playing this game in Cleveland, so I actually
think that total is a little bit low. This is
probably one of my stronger totals leans on the board today.
I think, is it over eight? Is that what you're
seeing there?

Speaker 2 (28:08):
Seven and a half, a couple seven halves, but mostly eight. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (28:12):
I have a feeling that that's going to be all
eight at some point, like probably as we get close
to the first pitch. If you can still get a
seven and a half in this game, I think that's
a solid look at a total.

Speaker 2 (28:22):
I will say regarding Messe, I believe in the last
month his BABEB is like three seventy one, so he's
had a lot of bad luck in that regard. I
believe he's I believe he's second in baseball and highest
babb and he's still getting out of jams even with
the bad luck. There's a concern also, you know, normally

(28:44):
I would I would say Detroit without facing the LEFTI
it means carry Carpenter's out of lineup. But he has
done nothing as a late I believe he did head
homer the other day, but other than that last seven days,
his hitting rank is ranked three hundred and forty second
Parker metals three forty five. I went sel Perez three
point fifty two and Baiez, who was hurt yesterday. It

(29:07):
was at three h four. So they have one guy
who's hitting in the top one hundred in baseball, and
that's Labor Torres at eighty six. And he's not a
guy who's going to get you a ton of home runs.
He's just more of a singles guy. So that's my
concern about Detroit. But Carpenter is not hitting well right now.
He'll probably be replaced by Banyas and Jones. They came in,

(29:28):
they played the last time he faced the lefty. They
did give McKinstry off that day, but mckissrey's one of
their guys that's actually hitting pretty well right now. So yeah,
normally I don't like to play Detroit against the lefty,
but maybe Carpenter being out the lineup won't hurt them
at all because he's just not playing well. So I
will have I'm gonna sit back and relax. But I

(29:49):
think a lot of that messic thing was just just
bad luck. So he's still watched the games. He still
looks like he's he's pitching the same as he was before.
So maybe that's the case.

Speaker 1 (30:01):
Yeah, and again it's for me, it would be more
just like they have had. So I went back and looked.
He's made three starts against Toledo this year, most of
them earlier in the year, and so guys like Jamai Jones.
So I pulled the Tiger's lineup the last time they
faced a lefty, which was against the Wentz, and they
had Jones leading off, Wentzel, Perez A Bonyez, Parker, Meadows,

(30:28):
Jace Jung. All of those guys have been at triple
A the most most of the year. So I wonder
if I mean, you know, Hinch just is smarter than most.
I wonder if he's gonna look at those minor league
splits and try to put the lineup out there that's
seen him the most, because again, they've had a ton.
If you were down at Toledo this year, you've you've
seen him for I think he's accumulated something like twenty

(30:52):
one or two winnings against the Mudheads, and so Hinch
has got to be grasping at straws at this point. Anyway,
maybe he's like, hey, let's just see you know, you guys,
Jace Young can't get any worse, right now, Let's get
some of these guys in that at least had a
big sample against him. It'll be interesting. But I do
think it finds its way over at some point. And

(31:12):
some of that credit to the Guardians timely hit. What
it was that Jose Ramirez last night gets the big
hit to sort of put that game out of reach.
I don't think that changes. Teams just been getting big
hit after big hits, so doesn't take much to get
over seven and a half, and I think this one does. Okay,
let's move on. Let me go back to my let

(31:36):
me go back to my list here I do want
to get Yeah, let's talk Mets Cubs. Like I feel
like we've kind of, you know, talked about this series.
I haven't oddly enough, I feel like I have been
wrong about this series, and it's like I've had a
little bit of bad luck and now I haven't bet
any of these. But on Monday I had the Cubs

(31:57):
in a free pick video Kate Horton gets hurt. The
Cubs blow a big lead last night. It looked like
everything was great until it wasn't. The Cubs just unloaded
on Jonah thong first time. Three looked pretty good. Mets
had a big play to get out of a gym,
threw it through a runner out at home and but
then suddenly they just got bombed. So looks like it's

(32:18):
gonna be Imanaga MacLean obviously a huge game for the Nets.
That goes without saying, are you getting involved Nets Cubbies tonight?

Speaker 2 (32:28):
At this point, it's up in the air. We got
my plane against the left Naga basically a pick them
right now with a total of seven and a half.
When I'm looking at the weather, the Wrigley field is
blowing into the slightly in. It's minus eight percent of
what it normally would be, so it's slight differential. Seattle's

(32:49):
where it's blowing in at about fourteen fourteen percent run
differential than it would normally be. They had a little
bit of that yesterday and it didn't matter because the
pitching for Colorado. So get that in mind. But most
of the most of the games today the wind is
blowing out, and I think out of the eight out

(33:11):
of the twelve the wind is is either blowing out
or neutral, and so there could be some runs in
these games today. When we take a look at the
starting pitchers. McLean's been terrific, but one point two seven
e RA but three point two eight expected one point
h one whip. Excuse me, It's still only throwing forty

(33:32):
less than forty three innings, so not everything has come
out with enough enough sample size here for baseball savant.
But even though he's done great, he does so somethings.
There is some things that he's a little weakend. The
chase rate, walk great is less than normal, and hard
hit rates, so uh, he's pitching a little bit above

(33:53):
his head right now, but it's it sure has worked
so far for him in Minaga three point three seven
ERA four point zero, I've expected zero point nine to
six whip. This is also a mixed bag. His walk
great ninety six percentile, chase rade eighty fifth, but everything
else basically is league average and below. He is basically

(34:15):
doesn't throw him any ground balls and on the fourth
percentile eight tenth pass ball velost the eighth. So two
guys that can be hit here, even though their numbers
show they've got some good numbers on the season, which
would point me a little bit to the over in
this one. Since it is sitting here at seven and
a half, but the winds blowing slightly in and because

(34:38):
it is going to be treated like a playoff game,
you have to always take a look at who the
Mets bullpen have available. Now. They did have Diaz and
Rogers go on Tuesday, and they threw twenty seven to
thirty one pitches last night. They had the day off.
Heisley or Elsley excuse me, through twenty four, but he
hadn't pitched the previous time, so should be in decent

(35:00):
shape for the bullpen. Probably not going to get there
in this game. I had the Mets two days ago
lucked out. That was a game they fell behind it
early and got that beginning. I'll take that win and
get out of this series with that victory. Probably because
I'm seeing better games on the board today.

Speaker 1 (35:18):
Yeah, I feel the same way. I think it would
be Mets or Pass for me here. I'm very high
on McLean I think, you know. I was. I was
going back and forth with someone on Twitter that was like,
oh see, like you know, I told you the Mets
young guys were gonna it wasn't gonna last. We're gonna
struggle in it. And I was like, no, what I
said was they need to call these guys up because

(35:40):
they need to see if they're they're sitting on an ace.
It's not the the the they didn't want to have
sprote McLean and tongup this year, but guys like Sean
and I are sucking Sengau Frankie Mantes getting hurt. That
is the reason that they're up, not because they just
were like dying to take dudes from Double A and

(36:01):
have them starting playoff games. So let's get that straight.
The Mets are they're doing this for two reasons. One necessity.
Two they've got to see if they're sitting on a
guy that could be like the guy that ends up
being the ACE in the playoffs. So like, forget like
Jonah Toong struggling. The dude had two starts at Triple A. Okay,
forget that he's gonna be fine, he's awesome, but like

(36:23):
he's up here just trying to help out right now,
he shouldn't even be up in the big leagues. But again,
they needed to see if he was going to just
be like so good that they had to put him
on the playoff roster. McClain has actually been that guy,
like they've So that's kind of what I was looking
at when I said, Okay, they've got Sproke, they've got McClain,
they've got Tonged down at Triple A. If one of

(36:45):
these dudes can pan out to be really good, I
think the Mets are going to be in okay shape. Now.
The Mets have not played good baseball, that's, you know,
aside the point, and they've played their way into now
sort of needing to have a good weekend to get
to the playoffs. But it doesn't mean Nolan McLain still
hasn't been that guy. He's been awesome, and you know
it's from from a the way I great out put

(37:08):
pitchers at the Triple A level. He was. He was
one almost this entire season. Uh, go watch Pitching Ninja.
Rob Friedman posts every time he's got to start. Rob
Friedman posts the uh the splits of of his sweeper
and slot. Uh, the two pitches that go in the
opposite directions. I think one's a sweeper. One is a sinker.

(37:29):
I mean arm tunnels exactly the same ball comes out.
One takes a hard right, the other takes a hard left.
I don't think the league. I think it's gonna be
a little while before the league figures out how to
handle that. So I'm I'm, I'm sort of I feel like,
if you like the Mets at all, this is the spot,
like you have to win with McLean on the mound

(37:50):
here if you don't. I know, they got the Marlins
this weekend, but if the Mets lose this game, they're
really asking to miss the playoffs in my opinion, So again,
not not one that's gonna make my card, but I
do give the slightest avenges to the Mets, and personally
I like McLean, so it would have to be Mets
are passed. All right, let's move up, move along. Do

(38:13):
you let me go to the chat? I kind of
I want to see if there's one that people are
are really asking about that I'm ignoring here. Let's see,
let's see someone's the Seahawks money line. I will, I
guess I'll take this time to promote myself for a second.

(38:33):
I have a five percent play in the Thursday night
football game tonight, which is very rare for me. I
typically don't play the midweek games, but I like an
angle here and so I do have a five percent
football play that goes tonight Seahawks Cardinals, having it from
six and two. I made eight NFL bets this year, Brian,
and I'm six and two, so I'm pretty happy about that.

(38:56):
U two and three of them are five percenters. I'm
two and one on those in the one was the
Texans on Monday Night Football, where they were a fourth
and ten away from from basically winning that game. So
pretty happy with the NFL. I have a five percent
play up that goes tonight. We're going to continue on here,
and I got one we should talk about. So I

(39:17):
actually was very close to adding this to my client
card I ultimately talked myself off of it. I'm glad
I did, because I thought you were right with your
handicap of the Royals yesterday and just didn't work out.
They you know, they didn't hit and they lost a
close game three to two. I'm looking at this sort
of game today again and I'm inclined to go back

(39:40):
with the Royals. I don't dislike this matchup for them.
I liked the matchup yesterday. I thought you did a
great job pointing out the value on the Royals there. Again,
it just didn't work out. You're still getting them. You're
not getting the plus price, but you can still get
them in that minus one oh five range. Are you
running it back with the Royals here?

Speaker 2 (40:00):
Yeah, the Royals yesterday were one of my teams. I
ended up going two and three, but because we won
the big five percent play, ended up profiting for clients,
and of course a lot of people that's all they
care about is the five percent plays. But yeah, the
Royals going with Michael Lorenzen here against Mitch Ferris and

(40:21):
the Lorenzen's the ready. Ferris is the lefty, and we're
looking at Kansas City about a one to ten favorite
slight favorite total of nine here, slightly to the over.
When you take a look at the numbers from Michael
Lorenzen four point seven o ERA four point seventy four,
expected one point three to five whip. Other than his

(40:41):
walk rate, which is in the seventy first percentile, basically
everything else is either the average or worse. Sension eight
percent ile, expected batting average seventeenth, expected DRA eighteenth. He's
a an exander throw seven different pitches from eight to
twenty two percent of the time. I do like that,
and that's the only, basically the only reason at h
three thirty three in his eleventh season, while he's still

(41:02):
pitching in the major leagues. He's sort of like one
of those veteran lefties you see that that continue to
rack up innings, but he's a right hander. He's going
up against Mitch Ferris, and he's not facing Vieler in
this game, but he is facing lorens And and he's
got a six point five two ERA five point three
to three expected one point four or five whip. Obviously,

(41:25):
he's only throwing nineteen innings, so there's not a whole
lot out there, but his fastball velocity he's only in
the fifth percentile, and he throws at half the time
and he only has three pitches. So he's not he's
not a guy and looking h to back, it's not
as though he's he's a guy that we've been waiting
on to come up here and play for the Angels.
There they're pitching starting pitching, as we know, is the

(41:48):
weakness of the team and it's been that way for
a while. And he's he comes in, uh, he was
in a trade with Atlanta. He comes in. He's basically
entering the season. He's the twenty third ranked player in
their minor league system. So he's not a guy that
I'm really going out there to love on buttective. Do

(42:12):
take a look at the Royals. They're in really good
shape in the bullpen, nobody because they didn't have the lead,
they fell behind early. They never really used any of
their best arms in the bullpen, whereas the Angels had
to use Jensen Garcia for me and Soth who is
so Sath was a guy that came out in twenty
one and we really thought good things about this guy.

(42:34):
But he's never made it to the next level. But
you know their bullpen right now, Jansen would would have
to pitch back to back. They're actually not in that
bad of a situation. I think the Royals are a
little bit better. And from a starting pitcher standpoint, as
much as Lorenzen's a EH kind of guy, I would
prefer that side. So we're getting at Kansas City. They

(42:56):
now have a I believe there exactly five hundred on
the record for the season. One of the things I
like is I talked yesterday about his teams trying to
finish the season with a winning record. I prefer them here.
I don't know if I'll get here, if I can
get him as an underdog, you know, maybe plus one
oh five, and there's some plus one on ones out
there right now. But if I got him a plus
one oh five, I may have a small play against.

(43:18):
So yeah, I think that's probably the right side in
this game.

Speaker 1 (43:22):
Someone in the chat says, wait, wtf I paid for
this pick? Why is it free? Adam, I haven't given
out a pick on this show yet, so I'm not
quite sure what you're talking about. I did say that
I have a five percenter in the NFL game tonight,
and if you know anything about the NFL, you know
that it's going to be Seahawks Cardinals because it's the
only game. That's all. I said. I have a five

(43:43):
percent play in the NFL game. Haven't given out anything
for free. That being said, I will likely give my
Major League Baseball play out for free today because if listen,
if I've got a five percenter up, I really don't.
I don't like to have like multiple packages. The five
percenters are expensive enough as it is, so I will
probably give Major League Baseball out for free today, which

(44:05):
I think I've got three in a row in MLB,
so I think that's what I'll do my five percenter
in the NFL will be what's for sale on my page.
Take a look at the free pick section, because if
I do play something in MLB, maybe it's the DBAX,
which is my parlay leg here I will I I've
decided I'm going to give that out for free, so

(44:25):
just wanted to clear that up. Have not released any
play that I've that I have up for sale for
clients on this show yet today. As far as this plays,
this game is concerned, I suppose that this would get
my I don't know if it'll make my client card,
but it's certainly certainly what I'm looking at. Mitch Ferriss
called up directly from Double A the Angel Man. The

(44:49):
Angels might need to go the Marlins route where they
fire every one associated with pitching in the organization, because
this this is not two thousand and four, Like, no
one calls dudes up directly from Double A anymore. No
one does it. It's just not even a thing anymore

(45:11):
unless you're in the Angels organization. They're the only I
mean it, it's maybe a thing that's very rare and
would probably be done like out of complete necessity. Why
the Angels are still doing this is I don't understand
they've done it with like four guys Al Dequerre well
recently Ald Harry, who pitched yesterday. He's at least been

(45:35):
up and down a little bit, but he was at
Double A all here. Suddenly he's back in the big leagues.
Kashnawitz debuted straight from Double A, and it's like Triple
A is good enough now, where like Brian helped me
out here back in the day, I don't think the
quality of Triple A was as good as it is now.
I think you have guys that are hanging around much longer,

(45:57):
extending their careers, willing to pay Triple A because the
money is much better now. So you have far more
MLB veterans that are willing to play until they're thirty
five to thirty six, thirty seven years old at Triple
A because they're actually making a few dollars. It's not
an insult like it was years ago with the money.
So the quality of player at Triple A isn't improved,

(46:21):
and I think these guys are at a disadvantage pitchers
when they don't get to go up to Triple A
for at least like a month and figure out how
to face real MLB players because you don't have those
at Double A. Would you would weigh in on that,
I'm curious to see your team.

Speaker 2 (46:37):
Back when they had COVID, they really cut out most
of minor league baseball, So anybody who is in Double
A or lower that really pretty much set them back
a whole year. And that's why since then you have
seen more guys being called off from Triple A because,
like you mentioned, a lot of guys in Triple A
would be the guys that were, you know, the twenty six,

(46:59):
twenty seventh, eighth, guys that are veterans that didn't quite
make it. You see with the Red Sox all the time,
because they've been they've been bringing it. They were trying
to find a first basement all season long. They tried
to put bring somebody up, bring it back down, bringing
back up Hamilton's second base, same kind of thing. And
so those guys are the guys usually keeping Triple A.
Double A issue more of your prospects, and as of

(47:21):
now people are really worried about burning out their prospects.
So that's one of the reasons it's it's not the
same as it was in the past, But yeah, it's
the the Angels pitching staff is everything the Angels do.
It's I'm I feel terrible for the Angels players because
I love the ballpark, I love the fans there, and

(47:42):
they just they're an afterthought already, uh being there with
San Diego, San Francisco, in La in California. So yeah,
that's They're not a team I'm looking to back on
a regular basis.

Speaker 1 (47:57):
So back to this because I'm not. I'm not done yet,
because I just my mind continues to be blown as
I look at numbers. Here, h Mitch Ferris at Double
A Rocket City. The trash Panda's a great, a great mascot.
By the way, The Rocket City trash Pandas down in
Alabama are the Double A affiliate for the Los Angeles Angels.

(48:18):
Mitch Ferris has spent almost his whole season there, twenty
three starts. He's got a four point two seven ERA
and a one point four to seven win. Does that
sound like something to you that should just be promoted
straight to the the big league level, because it certainly
doesn't to me. And so let's see what's happened since

(48:40):
he's gotten called up to the bigs. Shocker. His ERA
is over six. He has six point five to two
e ra in in four starts at the big league level.
Like I again, I just don't. I know, they don't
have much. So that's the other I know they don't

(49:01):
have much down at Salt Lake. They had one of
the worst pitching staffs of any team in my in
the PCL this year. It's why they finished close to last.
But there's still like at least a couple of veterans
down there. I guess. I just like, on the one side,
it's like, whatever, they're meaningless games, let's see, let's see
what he can do against big league hitters. But this

(49:22):
is just not a guy that, in my opinion, has
shown enough to be like, yeah, let's trot him out
there on the road or I'm sorry they're home here,
but like, let's trot him out there against the big
league lineup. So I would have to go to the
Royals here, I think there, I almost I think this
is arguably a better bet than yesterday's with the Royals.
I do like them here. If I hadn't already locked

(49:45):
in my parlay leg, this would have probably been in.

Speaker 2 (49:48):
But keep in mind Paris only throws three pitches. He
throws his fourth same forty eight percent of the time.
It's three point one miles an hour lower than the
league average for a left Rose has changed twenty seven
percent of the time. That's over seven miles an hour
less than what a normal left he throws it, and

(50:09):
a slader twenty five percent of the time, which is
three point seven miles lower. So he's a twenty four
year old junk pitcher that only has three pitches. Yeah,
if if Kennas City was throwing somebody other than Lorenzen,
obviously we wouldn't be the only Lane one ten in
this game. But I agree, I think kenn City is
a good bet. We're getting late in the show. I'm

(50:31):
gonna I'm gonna give my leg out. I'm gonna go
to the Houston in the athletics game. Houston Astros another
team I saw. I saw a meme somebody put out
and I don't remember who it was, but it had
like in the Army when you crawl on your stomach,
you know, underneath those wires. They said that that was

(50:53):
the Houston Astros and the Detroit Tigers and the Cincinnati Reds.
This week just barely hanging on for dear life and
Houston just is not playing well. Houston comes in about
a one thirteen one fourteen favorite here total of nine
and a half to the under, and Houston is going
with Brammer belt. Does you know Houston is playing a

(51:15):
lot better ball before Framervelle does decided to screw up
his catcher that game of a week or two ago.
He's got a three point seven five ERA on the season,
three point eight one expected, one point two far whip.
He has not pitched as well as he has in
the past. Last year at two point nine to one ERA,
won fifteen games. His ground ball rates ninety seven percent

(51:35):
of barrow rate ninety six, but average X velocity eleven
percent of heart hit rate eighth extension eighth. He's not
a guy that I want right now, and in fact,
that's a lot of pressure on him because he's already
in the doghouse from Houston. He's going to be a
free agent, and he's not a guy I would trust

(51:57):
being on them out here now. I get JT. Ginn,
and I know you've been more of a fan than
a lot of people have, but it's starting to show
a lot of his stats are starting to show that
maybe he's he's got a future. He's got a four
point five to SEVENTYRA three point seven zero expected one
point three to two whip still a little bit high,
but most of his stackass page shows him in the red.

(52:22):
He does struggle with the barrel rate seventeen percentile, a
hard hit rate sixteenth. But he's a major ground ball pitcher,
which really means a lot in this ballpark nineteth percentile.
There stenches seventy seventh. Shes give me seventy second, with
rate seventy fourth, strikeout rate seventy fourth. He's turning into
a pretty decent pitcher for a team in Oakland or

(52:44):
Sacramento this year or Vegas in twenty twenty eight. That
is showing that there's some advantages to him and he
may be a guy that ends up in this rotation
for a while. The Athletics, you take a look at
their hitters, they're hitting very well well right now. Sworderstrom
has been great fifty two the last two weeks. Everybody

(53:05):
on the team's decent. They haven't been like Houston. Houston.
You take a look at their hitters, they've really struggled.
Bullpen arms look pretty good for for the A's here.
If you take a look at the Houston offense, the
only guy they have in the top one forty is
Jeremy Pina and he's been hurt the last three days,
so the rest of the guys have really struggled. They've

(53:27):
got Paratus has done nothing three l six, Walker three fourteen,
Sanchez three eighty six. He struggled the entire time he's
been with Houston. And we've got Jake Myers, who was
really hot a while back, but now he's at three
forty three. And Zach Cole, who they brought up, is
a three seven. So Houston is not hitting and they're
playing a guy who's pitching very well right now when

(53:47):
you're able to catch. The Athletics is a slight underdog
in this game. I'm going to play the Athletics. Let's
just put him at plus one hundred. That'll be my parlay.
We're gonna go with the Athletics plus one hundred here
against Houston, and they could finally put the Astros out

(54:07):
of their misery for a good point of this last
few wakes where Houston has been terrible.

Speaker 1 (54:16):
Rule of thumb, if the Mets trade away one of
their high draft picks. They always end up being good.
You can pretty much set your watch to it that
organization has a lot of bad luck, and they may
be getting more in the coming days when they blow
the wild card to miss the playoffs. But the list
of top prospects that the Mets have traded away that

(54:36):
ended up being awesome in their next stop is very,
very long. JT. Gin I have a feeling as the
years go on, is going to be on that list
if he isn't already, because of course he was the
second rounder for the Mets. I forget what trade they
maybe it was Blackburn or one of the they've traded
with the Aids a couple of times. Ship him over there.

(54:57):
He's probably going to be in their rotation for a
couple of years. And like you said, Brian, I've kind
of been high on him through the you know did
during his time in the minors, and he's he's someone
this is another guy that is on my list of
guys watched them in the offseason. I have a big red,
you know, big star next to JT. Gin because he's
someone that I'm going to be looking toward to next season.

(55:19):
As like maybe making the jump to be a guy
that's you know, locking down a rotation spot. But twenty
I mean, I have no problem with him here. I again,
I think, you know, I think pitching for this team
is gonna be tough. Sometimes pitching in this ballpark can
be difficult. But you know, so far three starts in

(55:41):
the month of September, one point seven to six CRA
two eleven batting average against one point one to one whip.
I like him, so yeah. I've never been a big
Fraanbervaldez guy. I still think that this point. I mean,
if there was ever any animosity in that locker room
for that and now they're losing, like it might be

(56:03):
the Astros might be cooked here after those two days.
I don't hate that angle at all. I know they
have a lot to play for, but then this, this
team just hasn't gone in there, and I kind of
this was I talked about this back in June, back
around the All Star break, I said, the odd team
out I think in the Al West is probably gonna

(56:24):
be the Astros. Now. At the time, I thought the
Rangers might actually still make the playoffs, but like I
didn't know the Guardians were gonna come from the clouds
and win, you know, every game they played, But it's
kind of played out that way, and I could kind
of I think that's kind of how I look at
it when you hear so yeah, I and Colin Gregory,
I believe, is an Astros fan, and he says Astros

(56:45):
are dead, Capital Dead. So yeah, I'm with you on
the a's here. I think it's a good call.

Speaker 2 (56:52):
I do want to point out we've on my trustee
Odds logic page, which is our line service at wager Talk,
really really good. There's a lot of guys in the
industry that I followed that had nothing to do with
wager Talk. They all rave about this line service. So
make sure you get it, either the free version or
the paid version. It's getting better all the time. They're

(57:12):
gonna have prop they're gonna have props and a lot
of things going on there in the back that really
makes us proud. Troy Melton they have is listed as
a starter for Detroit. That makes a lot of sense.
I like him. He's their fifth fifth rank prospect in
the minors. He's alridy. He threw twenty one pitches on Saturday,
so he's had plenty of time off. He is going

(57:33):
to get the start here for Detroit. And now we're
starting to see some line movements because of that money's
coming in a little bit on Detroit. Here you can
get Cleveland now as low as A one fifty seven
just opened up a circa here in Vegas, so they're
delayed to updated. So Melton being in for Detroit is
better for Detroit in that game. And we talked about

(57:56):
the value. If you got more, uh cahonas that I've got,
then Detroit may not be a bad bet. But I'm
not going to bet them.

Speaker 1 (58:06):
Yeah, I mean Detroit money had to come in at
some point. That price was was obnoxious. But again, even
even at a good price, I'll triple down on what
I've said all week. And I cannot be the Tigers
until something good happens for them. And and Cody, don't
worry about that. Cody says again, Adam, sorry, I heard
you wrong around some loud work equipment at work. I

(58:28):
just wanted to make sure that other people didn't think
that I that I gave something out that I didn't
because my one of my favorite so so Brian and
you can relate to this, Uh you know, when we
lose a five percenter, there are people that you know,
people are not happy about it. They're big plays and
like you were saying that you went whatever two and
three yesterday. But if if your five percenter wins, typically

(58:51):
people are happy, that's the one they want. So my
favorite thing I I this was maybe two years ago.
I had a five percenter in like it was like
a standalone football game, similar to tonight. I think it
was like Monday night football or something. I won, and
someone the next day was mad at me because they said,
they said, I can't believe you. I thought the way

(59:14):
you they are, like, the way you bet, I couldn't.
I never thought in the world thought you wouldn't have
been on the other side. So I bet the other side.
So I was like, wait a minute, you didn't buy
the play. You guessed that what I was gonna put out.
You guessed wrong. My play won, and you're upset with me.
I said, how is that like? But that's kind of
Brian Will. We'll concur this is the type of stuff

(59:37):
we deal with here, Like, you know, it is what
it is. I wouldn't want it any other way. Let's
put it that much. Put it that way, go go ahead.

Speaker 2 (59:44):
I just got a quick quick story. Years This is
as probably fifteen years ago. I was on a different
website and we hadn't come around with this yet, but
I had. I was on a ten game winning streak,
and I had a guy call me in the office.
This was back when I used to answer my own phone.
And he says, yes, it must be pretty confident about

(01:00:06):
today's play. You won ten straight And I said, well, yeah,
I won ten straight. I said, but that's good. I'm happy.
But that does not mean today's play is better than
anything else. It says, it's the same strength as the
last time I gave out, and he goes, well, you
came out ten in a row. How could you not be?
And he wouldn't buy my play because I wasn't overly excited.
Now I've been in this for forty five years. I

(01:00:28):
don't get excited about one play if it's a five
percent or sure, I want to win, And of course
it's important. That's five percent of your bankroll if you're
betting that. I don't even bet that. I bet one
in two percent of my bankroll on my ends. So yeah,
it's we want to win all the big ones. But
we're in this to grind. We're in this for every
people who Our main focus is guys who buy our season.

(01:00:51):
We want to have a winning record for them. Yes,
the guys that buy individual there's a whole lot more
of them. We try to win for them too. But
we're not going to win every game. It's just not
It's not possible. And we try to give you as
many opinions as we can on every game we play,
and a lot of times people say, oh, you were
wrong in this game. I says, well, I didn't play
that game. This is about you got elected on the show.

(01:01:12):
I said, yeah, I got people could plain if you
don't give them an opinion. But then when you give
an opinion, to loses. So we're in a no win situation.
Just get that in mind.

Speaker 1 (01:01:21):
But here's here's why. I mean. We're winning in the
fact that we get to do this for a living.
And I always say that it is it is. I
would much rather someone tell me I suck after a
five percent loss, then like, put a suit and tie
on and go to work. We're to go to a
real job every day. I still say I've been doing
this for god, Oh, like this is my only job

(01:01:44):
for over a decade. And I still say real job
because I just don't even feel like this is actual work.
But even though my if you ask Mallory, all I
do is work because it's like I'm either looking at
a screen watching a game, but it's like it's not work.
This is this is I'd probably be doing this if
I was at What's Part. It's the reason I don't
have a real job anymore, Brian, because when I was

(01:02:05):
at real jobs, I was doing this on the clock
at work, and they're like, you gotta go. You can't
just have the ODDS screen up on your you know,
your screen all day. You're supposed to be here doing
real work. So it's anyway, don't worry about that. I
just want to make sure someone didn't think I gave
the playout because I didn't. And Irish John, yeah, I

(01:02:25):
still leaned Detroit over even with money coming in. Still
I like my handicap there. So if you miss that.
As always, we are up on demand on the Wager
Talk YouTube channel. Head on over there, watch the replay,
drop us a comment. If you miss something, you can
always go back. But we did talk about Guardians Tigers
in depth and I'll wrap it up with the parlay

(01:02:46):
two teamer today just two of us. Tokyo Brandon will
be back tomorrow, so we'll have the whole crew back
for the final show of the regular season. But the
two teamer today Diamondbacks plus one and a half money
line plus two eighty one. Hopefully we haven't We haven't
hit one yet this week, so hopefully this is it,

(01:03:07):
and either way we'll see you guys dining and tomorrow.
Have a good night everyone, or have a good day everyone.
Cash all your tickets and we'll see you in the morning.