Beat the Books! Your Daily MLB Betting Fix - Predictions & Best Bets for September 25 | Total Bases

Looking for the best MLB picks, predictions, and betting tips for Friday, September 26, 2025? Tune in to Total Bases with expert handicappers Adam Trigger, Bryan Leonard and Tokyo Brandon as they break down today’s MLB matchups with sharp insights and actionable advice.

01:14 Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers
10:43 Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers
22:14 New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles
31:01 St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs
39:34 Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays
51:01 Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels
59:11 MLB Parlay of the Day

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:07):
All right, welcome in everyone.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
It is time for Total Bases, the last show of
the regular season. But we're gonna be here with you
guys all through the playoffs, so don't worry. Total Basis
isn't going anywhere. We'll just have less teams to talk about.
But the way we do this show, that's that's not
going to really be an issue until like the LCS
round because we're only getting you know, six games or

(00:29):
so each day, we're gonna deep.

Speaker 1 (00:30):
Dive into them, so as always jump in the comments.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
We are you know, we will talk about the games
that you guys want to talk about, but I'm gonna
start with there's still a couple of very meaningful games,
and so I'm gonna start there.

Speaker 1 (00:46):
We'll go from there.

Speaker 2 (00:47):
Brian Leonard, we kind of knew that the Tigers were
gonna get one, or at least felt like they had
to get one at some point. Yesterday we pointed out
some really good value on the Tigers in that game.
If you if you dare to take a shot with them,
they get the win, They even it up in the
Al Central. There's now everything to play for going into
the weekend, and they're up against another team that still

(01:10):
has some work to do. I believe the Red Sox are.
I think they still need at least one win, maybe
two to fully clinch the wild card spot. This game's
out of Fenway Park, Tiger's Red Sox. Is this the
time you start to jump in with the Tigers?

Speaker 3 (01:24):
Yeah. I think Boston wins advances if they get a
win tonight or if Cleveland loses, I think is how
it works out. But we'll see how it goes. Mi's
against Harrison. Harrison, the lefty. He's the guy that came
over from San Francisco in the trade. He was what
they wanted and he's pitched pretty well for the Red
Sox so far. Mis has been a guy, you know,

(01:46):
we talked earlier the season. We've never been that huge
of a fan of his, but he was highly drafted
and he's putting together a pretty good season. I got
to give him some credit in that regard. We've got
Harrison about a one. Let's go about a one seventeen
one eighteen favorite and the total is eight and a
half to the over. When you take a look at

(02:06):
the past page, we'll take a look at Myz here.
Myze comes in three point nine one ERA three point
seven six expected one point two eight whip. Whip is
still career at one point two nine. You need to
get lower at but at least uh get it down
to at least one twenty at the most. But his

(02:26):
walk rate now eighty five percent, tyle extension eighty ninth.
But everything else is basically league average, slightly lower. Dest
throw of the five pitches four seemer thirty four percent
of the time. When it comes to Kyle Harrison such
we haven't had a chance to talk to him about
him a whole lot this year because they'd only thrown
thirty two innings. But he comes in with a three
point five eighty R three point eight nine expected one

(02:49):
point one to nine whip in his career nine to
nine four point three two ERA one point two eight whip,
And that was pitching in a good pitchers park, which
is San Francisco, So you got to take that with
a little grain of salt. As I mentioned, only thirty
two point two innings so far this year, so nothing
is really stabilized as of yet. He does that pretty

(03:11):
good extension seventy second percentiles, chase rate has been pretty good.
Everything else about league average or so so the pitchers
are very comparable in this one. The thing is with Harrison.
He throws four pitches, but he throws his fourth seamer
sixty percent of the time and it averages ninety four
point eight which is one point seven miles an hour

(03:33):
faster than the normal left hander. So it's a pretty
good fast ball. But still I think he relies on
it too much. When I'm looking at this game here,
I think it's pretty much priced correctly. Detroit still not
don't trust their hitting. Boston hasn't been the same since

(03:54):
Anthony's gone out. Don't know if I want to get
involved here, but hopefully it'll be in a Cleveland a
pop fan. It'll go many innings and some of these
pictures that get tired for the for the rest of
the series. But other than that, I've got nothing on
this one.

Speaker 4 (04:12):
Hey, guys back in Japan, and one thing I picked
up while I was in the US is a little
bit of Apple fireball. Pretty excited to try that. Haven't
tried it yet, but I'm gonna try it on the show.
So anyways, go to waysotalk dot com and see what
we have to offer. Many of us put free plays
up just click free plays. There's at least twelve out

(04:33):
there from all the kappers, so check out wayetalk dot com.
Regarding this game, yeah, Tigers were in a slump, big slump,
like panic slump, but they kind of turned that around yesterday. Well,
I don't know if it's all turned around. Casey Myi's
guy that I don't really trust. He's got terrible numbers

(04:55):
against Boston in his career, thirty three at bats against,
a three zero three average against nine eighty eight ops
and if you heard me on previous shows, seven fifty
is what I consider extremely average. So he's not good
against these batters. And I got Boston hitting top ten
in current form. As a matter of fact, I have

(05:15):
Boston a little bit better than Detroit at almost everything,
but just a little bit better. Boston's better at every
single category, and yet the overall evaluation, they're only five
points better than Detroit. So not enough for me to
play it. If anything, maybe an over Harrison, like Brian said,

(05:40):
the pictures are pretty comparable. Harrison's been good since Boston
picked him up, but if you notice, he never goes
past five innings, so maybe his inning's total under If
you can get a fifteen and a half for Harrison,
but overall, I'm probably gonna stay away from this one.
Although it'll be good. It's it's good ramifications in good entertainment.

(06:01):
I don't know if it's good betting.

Speaker 2 (06:05):
Yeah, I'm gonna talk about Kyle Harrison for a second,
because this is that's the most interesting part of this
game to me. I think it's also what kind of
makes my handicap. Whether I'll play it or not, I'm
not sure. But listen, the Red Sox had every reason
to sort of rus like rush Harrison up or not
rush him up, because of course, Kyle Harrison's not a

(06:27):
he's not a he's still young, but he's not like
a prospect, not a rookie. I mean, he was up
with the Giants in parts of multiple seasons at this point.
So you know, they make this trade like out of
the woodwork. They trade Raphael Devers and Kyle Harrison is
the guy you're getting back, and you're getting blasted by

(06:48):
your fan base for the move. The a lot of
organizations might have felt pressure to sort of get him
up and hope that he could go out and be good,
just so they could say, see, like this is who
we got back in return, and there was spots for
them to potentially do that. Like that's the other thing.

(07:08):
There was times where they needed another starter and they
went Peyton Tolly Connolly early I think even on a
couple of different occasions brought Chris Well back up. So, like,
the reason I'm bringing that up is they really protected
Harrison in that regard. And the reason I think they
did that goes back to something Brian has talked about

(07:29):
multiple times on this show where the Red Sox when
they get a pitcher, they're trying to make you a
certain way and then if you're not doing that, you
get Krint Quinn Priester at Aka just thrown out on
the street. Because that's what they tried to do with Priester.
They grabbed him from the Pirates organization. He went down
to Worcester. He probably didn't want to do what they
were doing in terms of like throw the pitch mix

(07:51):
that they wanted him to throw, and they were just like, great,
see you, We're done with you, and good.

Speaker 3 (07:56):
For the bruise.

Speaker 1 (07:57):
The Brewers were able to pick him up and he's
been great for that.

Speaker 2 (08:00):
So the reason I'm bringing that up is I'm really
only going to judge Kyle Harrison off of the last
couple months because you almost have to think like when
a guy goes new organization and now they're saying, hey,
I know you've been doing it like this for the
past two three years and you've actually had some success,
but we want you to do this.

Speaker 1 (08:17):
I'm not even looking at.

Speaker 2 (08:18):
Those first couple starts because again, like that's that's got
to be very uncomfortable for a pitcher. I'm sure TV
has experienced that in his day working close to baseball organizations.
That's a pitchers don't like to be like have their
mechanics breaking down to a point where it's like, Okay,
you got to start over here.

Speaker 1 (08:35):
You have to throw this pitch, not this pitch.

Speaker 2 (08:37):
So last two months for Kyle Harrison at Worcester in
August two point three five ERA a two thirty five
batting average against a one thirty five whip. The reason
I bring that up is July was terrible for him
and June was even worse, and I believe that trade occurred.
So June was when the trade occurred, So his June
numbers were actually still in San Francisco. Wasn't pitching well,

(08:59):
I wonder if he maybe knew that he was about
to get shipped off, and then July at Worcester was poor. Okay,
September so far for him, one start at Worcester, two
starts at Boston have been the best his numbers have
been all season. You got a one eight zero e
rah two thirty one batting average against in a one
point two zero win. There's you know, last time out

(09:22):
against the Rays, six innings, one run, the five strikeouts.
He's hitting the zone, he's not really walking anyone. So
for me, I don't want to bet against him right
now because I think that that maybe he could be
better than like if we're just because the books have
to price it kind of like we started off where
it's like, okay, well he doesn't really go past five innings,

(09:42):
these are his numbers. It's like I'm going to throw
away everything he's done at the Giants. I don't think
he's the same pitcher at this point. I'm more intrigued
by him than Casey Mice. I haven't been really high
on Casey Mies all year. And it's like, yes, the
Tigers did finally get a win yesterday, but now they
got to go on the road to Fenway to Fay,
a team that also, you know, the Red Sox maybe

(10:03):
don't have as much pressure, but they kind of need
to win here because if they lose this one, they
could be in a situation where they're up against it
over the weekend. Remember, the Red Sox are playing the
team that could potentially catch them, and then if other
things break a certain way over the weekend, the Red
Sox could still be on the outside looking in. So
I still think it's a very big game for the
Red Sox at home.

Speaker 1 (10:23):
I'll tell you what.

Speaker 2 (10:24):
I've been to these games on Friday night at Fenway
late in the season before. This will be a playoff
atmosphere in Boston tonight, and I'm still I think for me, guys,
the Tigers, if they have a good weekend and they
get into the playoffs, I'll be able to look at
them next week.

Speaker 1 (10:40):
I need to see more than one win. So it
would be Red.

Speaker 2 (10:42):
Sox or pass for me here, Okay, Colin Gregory says
Red Sox are over.

Speaker 1 (10:48):
Yeah, I don't. I listen.

Speaker 2 (10:50):
I could see them getting after Mies. I wouldn't be
that surprised if the Red Sox scored and runs in
this one. I think TV kind of mentioned that as well.
All right, let's move on. I want to go to
another another one of the big sort of big impactful games,
and then we'll venture off from there. Let's go with well,

(11:13):
let's go to Brian Leonter. Let's go with the Guardians.
I know the Rangers are out of it, but the
Guardians still obviously need to win their neck and neck
now with the Tigers. Both teams enter play today tied
at the top of the Al Central, so the division
will be decided this weekend.

Speaker 1 (11:29):
How are you feel How are you feeling about the
Guardians going into this series?

Speaker 2 (11:33):
What would just just and then I also talk about
the game and if you have a play here.

Speaker 3 (11:37):
Yeah, with them losing yesterday, it's now the first time
they've been on this great run and they've been the hunter.
Now yesterday they were the hunted and the Bats went
silent against Detroit. We'll see how it goes. This is

(11:58):
really the first time they've been hunted since last year,
maybe maybe the year before, so they're not in that
position very very much. This year. They got Chacony's going
on the mound against Lighter both rights, Cody's about a
one fifty one to fifty five favorite total seven and
a half to the under, there is sports four to

(12:21):
one one, there's an eight to the under and the
only paying ten percent or ten cents more if you
like the under. That's not a bad bet if you
have that account. But it's interesting how Cleveland's Cleve has
already said that they're hoping they can clinch it before
they get to Sunday, or they're going to have to
use Williams instead of Allen. Well, you don't want to

(12:41):
use Williams in the regular season if you don't have to,
because he's been their best pitcher and he's been terrific
and they want to be able to start the playoffs
with them. But if you've got to win, you gotta win.
But hopefully, as a Cleveland fan, if they do clinch,
you'll be before then. But as I mentioned, seven and

(13:03):
a half on the total looks a little bit low.
I know it's a game that Cleveland needs to have here.
But Texas, Texas has plays a pretty good ball and
they're still coming out and let's take a look at
the last ten games Texas. Well, I'm my mistake on Texas.
They're one and nine their last ten. They lost again yesterday.

(13:27):
I must have been thinking of the week before that,
but they've struggled lately. There's still one game over five hundred,
and as I mentioned, everybody wants to end up an
hundred to better have a winning record, so that may
have some motivation there. Jacobi's pitch pretty well lately, I
still don't trust him when I take a look at
the teams here from a stackcast point of view, there's

(13:50):
been a guy that I've I've liked. He hasn't had
wins as much as he would have liked. He's only
nine to ten of the season, but he's three point
nine two ERA, four point six one expected one point
three to one whip, stench in eighty nine percent, fastball
velocity eighty eighth, but basically everything else is below league average.
He's starting to learn how to pitch in the majors.

(14:10):
He was terrific in the minors, but he hasn't hit
that clicking into the majors yet. Chikoni is very similar.
Iconi comes in with a four point one five are
a five point two three expected one point one eight whip.
His walk grade is great eighty six percentile, but basically
everything else is in the negative average eggs of velocity
first percentile, chase rate, third barrel third, hard hit rate first,

(14:36):
which means to me that I can't trust Cleveland in
this price range with CHACONI I think Later is a
better pitcher. I know Detroit or see me, Texas isn't
playing as well. But I think there's got to be
another way where we could play Texas. Here. Let's take
a team totals, Texas scores four runs, You've got a winner.
It probably plus money. That's not a bad situation. Still,

(15:05):
looking at this one, I don't I'm a little bit
concerned about Cleveland with the with the way they started
the last game. They did come back, score a couple
of runs, but if you take a look at you know,
the last last two weeks, they're still twenty eighth and
hitting in WRC plus at seventy nine, Texas is still
fourteenth at ninety nine. Texas is heading better that Cleveland is.

(15:28):
I like to start a little bit better, try to
find a way to play Texas in this game, but
I don't know if I'll get there. Maybe if I
can get this, you comeback right now, you can get
as high as one forty two a pinnacle. It's about
one thirty five to one thirty eight everywhere else. If
I can get a one, I may end up on
Texas Brother, and that I'll probably sit it out.

Speaker 4 (15:51):
As go to the replay of this video and leave
a comment and a like for us. We'd appreciate that.
Let Way to Talk know that you support the show,
and they'll let us do it next year, because we
would love to bring this back to you next year.
Regarding this game, I'm kind of along the lines with Brian.
I would go to Texas here because well, Lighter is

(16:14):
not a guy I generally trust. But Chaconi is a
guy who I've said it in previous shows. I always
lose his games, so I fade him, he kills me,
I back him, he kills me. But here not exactly
a guy I like to back generally. I got him
on a curve of thirty ranked twenty four. I got

(16:34):
Chaconi ranked twenty two, So they're both worse than twenty
which means they're both in the bottom one third of
starting pitchers. But the thing, the one stat that's kind
of amazing is Lighter faced. These guys earlier in the season,
he went seven innings in ten k and zero earned.

(16:55):
It was a great start, and in his career he's
he's pretty good. I think he had one other start
besides that, because he only has he only has twenty
four vats again, so he's probably got two starts. But
a one twenty five average and a two ninety two OP.

(17:15):
He has pretty amazing two starts. I don't know if
he's going to duplicate that effort, but we know he
certainly has potential to hold the Cleveland Bats down here,
maybe a Cleveland team total first five under one and
a half. Maybe I haven't done it yet, because one
and a half's I mean in MLB, just a little
bloop in a blast and boom, your BET's done. Right.

(17:37):
So and he did that at home the seven innings.
This time he's on the road and he's got a
four plus e RA on the road whereas Homira is three.
So yeah, might do it, might not, But if I
were to do it, I would do it that way.

Speaker 2 (17:54):
Cody says, Adam, great pick yesterday. That is absolutely sarcastic.
I got crushed yesterday.

Speaker 1 (17:59):
I got that.

Speaker 2 (18:00):
Hey, every every once in a while, you just have
a trash day. Got to own up to it. I
kind of knew I was cooked right up, like early
the day I love I loved Hanwa. It was one
of my favorite KBO that's in the last couple of weeks. Uh,
they were like dead out Arrival, down seven to nothing.
Then I had the Diamondbacks crushed, and so I knew
Brian Tokyo Brandon that when the Cardinals tied that game,

(18:23):
I had Cardinals plus one and a half. I'm watching
it with Mallory. I said, I gotta they gotta go
for two or I'm gonna lose. She said, what do
you mean, they just tied the game. I said, just wait,
you'll see, I said, Mariss Marist red Fox, Jason Myers
is not missing a second field going. Sure enough, he
banged the winner to hand me an oh and three day.
The reason I even bring that up, I said, I
think the one thing I did sort of nail yesterday

(18:43):
was the uh that Pirate's Reds game and the fact
that there was the need to win tax was very
strong on the Reds and if you had if you
had basically played it any other way than like Pirate's
money line, Pirates plus one and a half unders the game.
The play I really gave out in that game was
the Reds team total under on the show, which cash

(19:04):
you would have won? And That's how I'm going to
look at this game. So I can't possibly back the
Rangers right here. Reason being, I think they've kind of
given up on the season one to nine in their
last ten games playing on the road, they really haven't
played well. I mean, they haven't played inspired ball over
the last couple of weeks, and who knows how much
they even really want to be here right season's over.

(19:25):
We've talked about this team a couple times this year,
being twenty five guys, twenty five cabs. Not the most
tight knit group if you listen to Kevin Pular and
who knows, one more weekend they get to go on
their way.

Speaker 1 (19:38):
Not exactly the profile I want to back.

Speaker 2 (19:39):
That being said, if it wasn't for that, I would
think that there was a ton of value on the
Rangers here, because matchup wise, this matchup absolutely favors the Rangers.
I think Lier is a substantially better option than Seconi.
I know Seconi's pitched well better than I could have
ever imagined, but like a lot of value here on
the Rangers side. So the way I'm gonna look at

(20:01):
this one, I'm gonna look for under four team total
Guardians team total under four it is probably I think
you're gonna see some plus money three and a half's
out there right now under force, probably like minus one ten,
minus one fifteen. Reason I like that is because I
personally like Lighter. I think he's I've been talking about

(20:21):
guys like this on the show the last couple weeks,
Guys that I have on a list that I'm going
to like, probably like next year if they have a
good offseason. McGreevy was one of them. We talked about
one the other day, but Lighter is on that list
for me.

Speaker 1 (20:36):
I taught.

Speaker 2 (20:37):
I really think that the Rangers last year did him
no favors the way they brought him up, sent it
back down, brought him up, sent it back down short notice.
Twenty seventh man in a doubleheader this year was shaky
early on. He's actually been very good, I would say
second half of the season. And the thing with him
is because he's been up here more than that triple A,

(20:59):
and I think that might have to do with where
he was drafted the last name. Of course, he's you know,
the baseball lighter lineage. They want him at the big
league level, Like he's a high draft pick and a name.
I think he would have benefited for more time down
at TRIPA A developing that slider, that change up, that sinker,
that second pitch, because his fastball is great.

Speaker 1 (21:18):
He's got a great basketball like three.

Speaker 2 (21:19):
You know he's gonna throw ninety seven, ninety eight fastball
looks awesome. It's really the secondary stuff, but that stuff
started to improve. So I like him to have a
decent start here. And then you talk about the Guardians
and what Brian was pointing out, like kind of on
this dream run over a couple of weeks, maybe.

Speaker 1 (21:36):
Back to reality a little bit after last night, and
suddenly they.

Speaker 2 (21:39):
Wake up today and it's like, uh oh, Like we
were pursuing the Tigers all this time, we overtook them.

Speaker 1 (21:45):
Now we're tied for the division lead. Like now it's
a must win game.

Speaker 2 (21:48):
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them play
a little tight, And I think I don't think that
necessarily costs them the game, but I think it could
make it so they have to win, Like three to
two two one. It could be like a lower scoring
game or lighter comes out and shoves and suddenly they
maybe they lose a game for one and they're in trouble.
Either way, I think that under four Guardian's team total

(22:09):
is a good bet. So that's the way I would
look at this one. Okay, let's go to let me
get back to the chat here. I was on the
wrong chat screen and I haven't looked at any of
any of your guys' requests. So let's see if we
can all right, here we go, we can talk about

(22:30):
this team. Russell Deck says ken the Yankees go deep.
So we had the Yankees clinged. I believe the other
day they will They're going to take on the Orioles today.
So we got Yankees Orioles in the Bronx Trevor Rodgers. So, Brian,
we had this matchup, I believe last week. Actually, I

(22:51):
think TV was still on the show the last time
we talked Trevor Rodgers versus Will Warren. I want to
say we won a bet in that game, or maybe
like talked about how it was like maybe Rogers first
five and he pitched well anyway, Yankees not quite as
meaningful as the last couple of weeks for them. But
I just want to see here they are still just

(23:13):
trying to get the division standings up for some reason.

Speaker 1 (23:15):
I'm on multiple different screens.

Speaker 3 (23:17):
They're tied with Toronto. They need to win the division
to get the buy in the first round.

Speaker 1 (23:23):
Perfect.

Speaker 2 (23:24):
Yes, they're tied with Toronto. Five straight wins for the Yankees.
So let's talk Yankees Orioles. Why didn't you tell me
what you think about how this division ends up? And
also talk about the Yankees Oriols this matchup tonight.

Speaker 3 (23:37):
Yeah, as the show ended yesterday, we had a couple
of words and I said, I like Toronto in the
game and just didn't have the balls to play it
and sure enough to come out and got the victory.
I have a huge for them. They lost that game
and that was a muster wind for him. They've got

(23:58):
Beaver on the mountain today and they're just sancial favors.
So but the Yankees Rogers against Warren and Rodgers. The
lefty Warren is the guy that's been up and down
all year long. He's very good or very bad. And
the Yankees are about a one one forty one fifty
favorite here total eight and a half to the under

(24:19):
or eight to the over, and Rogers has been fantastic.
He's thrown one hundred and six innings now and he's
got a one point three five ERA three point oh
seven expected zero point eighty seven whip. His hard hit
rates still, it's amazing. He's got that one point three
five ERA. Obviously he's been lucky based on the expect

(24:39):
of the IRA, but his heart hit rates in the
fifth percentile. He's still getting hit a little bit. He's
not giving up barrels. He's in the eightieth percentile of barrels.
So he's been hard to explain this year, but he's
been very good. And as I said earlier the season,
we gave the Orioles a lot of a lot of

(24:59):
crap for making that trade, but they were right. I
was wrong, and I'll admit it. He's been very good.
The Yankees are going to Will Warren. He's got a
four point three five ERA four point five to five
expected one point three seven whip. Career whip at one
point four to four, that's what really hurts him. His
extension is very good eighty first percentile, but everything else
is either the league average or worse average ex of

(25:21):
velocity eighth percentile, chase eighth percentile. So when I look
at those two things, I eight and a half, maybe
a little bit of a lower number. The problem is
Baltimore is not really hitting well right now. Baltimore's ranked
twenty first and WRC plus last two weeks at ninety one.
Yankees are hitting well. They're at one twenty nine Yankees

(25:43):
in the match of the top two. Something in the
air in New York and is other than pollution, but
it's a it's a situation where obviously the Yankees got
more to play for. But Rogers has been right there
all season long. He's been very good in the second

(26:04):
half of the game. If Rogers only goes five and flies,
there's really no reason for Baltimore to extend him. They're
out of the playoffs and he's going to be a
key piece for them next year. It wouldn't surprise me
if he just goes five and flies. If he does,
I think the Yanks got the best bet on the
second half of that game. But we'll have to see

(26:24):
what the score is. But Baltimore is not hitting and
they may At this point, they had a pretty good
run there for a while. There's still six or four
of their last ten. They did get the victory yesterday,
so they're not giving up. The young guys continue to
play well. I can't seem to find an edge on
this game, so I'm going to pass it.

Speaker 4 (26:49):
Yeah, Rogers has been great. I liked him even when
he was in Miami. I thought he was pretty good.
He's excelled this year. Excuse me, still a little groggy
from the from the flights. He's been good, very good.
He's been a bright spot on a team that hasn't
had a lot of bright spots. Will Warren has one

(27:11):
of the biggest discrepancies in Major League Baseball between home
and away. He's a great home pitcher three three three
ERA and away he's got a five point eight ERA
at home. He pitches really well against these Orioles. His
stats are pretty average in his career, but Trevor Rodgers
against these Yankees amazing stats. Fifty two at bats against,

(27:33):
one hundred and thirty five average and a four to
sixty two OPS. Amazing numbers. Here can you do it
today against the number six lineup in Major League Baseball
in current form? Not sure about that, but the good
news is the Yankees team total in the first five
is two and a half, which I think is pretty high.

(27:54):
I don't see Rogers giving up three runs to these guys.
I could see him giving up two, but I don't
think three. So I think the Yankees team total first
five innings under two and a half would be a
decent play here. Their team total for the whole game
is four and a half, but then you have to
trust the oriole bullpen, which I have them ranked sixteen
right now. I'd rather just bet on Trevor Rodgers not

(28:19):
giving up three runs. I think that might be a
decent play.

Speaker 2 (28:24):
I'm with you, TV, I was gonna say i'd I'd
rather just bet on Trevor Rodgers here.

Speaker 1 (28:28):
First five you can get.

Speaker 2 (28:30):
You can get Orioles first five half a run minus
one twenty. That's a really good bet. Or you could
just take the plus money plus one twenty. I think
I'd rather have that that half run. That's that's a
great bet in my opinion. Oriols first five half a
run minus one twenty. I saw at one book. I mean,
even if it was like if you could find like
a minus one fifteen, my gut says you probably find

(28:50):
worse that that minus one twenty is probably good number.

Speaker 1 (28:54):
But I mean, listen, if let's say he knows.

Speaker 2 (28:56):
He's only probably out there for five innings or something like,
he's gonna give it, you know, he's gonna try go
go out there wipe him out.

Speaker 1 (29:03):
He's gonna you know, leave it out there.

Speaker 2 (29:04):
He's not gonna pitch again the rest of the year,
So you'd have to think that he comes and has
his his sort of best stuff for that performance. I
know they just saw him, but they I watched that game.
They did nothing again. I mean, they were totally clueless
against him. A week ago one six shoutout of things,
Yankees had one hit. I think they maybe draw drew

(29:25):
two walks in the game. So yeah, they could potentially adjust,
I suppose, But are you really a drop Like how
much you're gonna figure out about Trevor Rodgers in six days?
Like he's he's his stuff has been straight up ridiculous
since he was sort of called, you know, called back
up and put in the starting rotation. I think Brian
made the point the other day that had he been

(29:45):
up longer, like he'd be in the mix for Cy
Young this year. The only reason he's not in the
Cy Young conversation is because he didn't really start his
his big league season until June.

Speaker 1 (29:56):
Right.

Speaker 2 (29:56):
Other than that, like like he's been as good any
other starting pitcher in the league. Like you're gonna give
me him against Will Warren, who's inconsistent and could and
could give up a crooked number first five, and you're
gonna give me the bailout of the fact that if
we're tied after five innings, my bet still wins. I
like that be so Orioles plus a half first five.

(30:19):
I don't know if it's my Parley leg, but I
that's the one I like the most of anything we've
talked about so far.

Speaker 1 (30:24):
Sorry, Brian, were you gonna jump in there?

Speaker 3 (30:26):
I just don't say that. It's one twenty minus one
twenty everywhere.

Speaker 1 (30:29):
So that's okay.

Speaker 3 (30:30):
And I if problem was to play this game, I
think that's a pretty good way to go about it.

Speaker 2 (30:36):
Yeah, I mean, I that was surprising to me. I
thought they would have. I thought they would have really
like taxed you for wanting Trevor Rodgers in the first five.
I expected that for Orioles first five to be like
minus one forty for the plus a half run. But
because the game line is where it is, it's I
think it's got to keep it in check a little bit.
And yeah, I think that you're getting great value on

(30:56):
Orioles first five plus a half a run.

Speaker 1 (30:59):
There we get we had now that.

Speaker 2 (31:01):
As soon as I said, got to go to the
chat to get a game like five, people are like,
you better talk about this day game. And so we're
going to talk about the day game. The schedule makers
probably thought they cooked with this matchup Brian Cardinals Cubs last.

Speaker 1 (31:15):
Weekend of the season, everything on the line.

Speaker 2 (31:17):
The Brewers said, Nope, this division is going to be
put away by now, and this game maybe a little
anti climactic for Cards Cubs because of course the Cubs
are kind of already well, they're already in the Cardinals
are going nowhere, So not quite the huge division sort
of battle will close out the season and I think
people would hope for.

Speaker 1 (31:36):
But nonetheless, it's Cardinals Cubs.

Speaker 2 (31:38):
It's Wrigley Field, two pm Eastern start day game at
Wrigley Are you getting involved in this one at all?

Speaker 3 (31:45):
Nicholas against Ray is going in this one. Ray's about
a one sixty one sixty yeah one, sixty three favorite,
let's say, with a total of nine to the under
one of the He's but saying Louis, they were still
playing some pretty good ball. They were trying to finish
with a winning record. They cannot now. I believe the
best they can do is finish with a five hundred record.

(32:09):
They come in at yeah, seventy eight and eighty one,
so that goal having a winning record is out the door,
so that may lessen it a little bit. But the
Cubs got nothing to play for. They're locked in, So
I really don't know which way to go about this.
I'm not a fan of either pitcher, although Ray's gotten

(32:30):
more out of his ability than Micholas has. Although Micholas
second half of the season. He seems to do this
every year. He's a guy that you wonder when he's
pitching why he's in the major leagues. But he does
get on these streaks where he's been pretty good, and
he's been better in the second half on the season.
When we take a look at Mickless, he comes in

(32:51):
with a four point seven to six cra five point
three to zero expected, one point three to three whip.
He's good at walking people. You know, he's in the
ninete percent. Other than that, everything's below average. Barroll rate
thirty percentile with right second, strike out right fourth. He
is not a good pitcher, and he would have a

(33:11):
hard time next year finding a place to pitch if
he is no longer with Saint Louis. But maybe they
they had those two, a couple of good guys in
the miners that they could bring up. But we'll see
what happens. We thought we'd go see more of them
this year. They didn't see Colin Ray ten to seven record,
twelve and sixth record last year. But he's not been

(33:33):
overly impressed. At four point one ora, four point seven
to seven expected, one point two eight whip. His walk
rate's pretty good in the seventy second percentile six foot five,
so his extensions pretty well in the seventieth. But once again,
all his other numbers are below league average. Barrell rate
fourteenth percentile expected banning the average thirteenth expected, the IRA sixteenth.

(33:56):
When you take a look at the ballpark factors in
this game, for the Cubs, the wind is going all over,
it's swirling right now. They've got a plus one percent
higher than normal for a Wrigley Field, which if you've
followed the last few days, the wind had been blown in,
so it's a little bit better hitting area than it

(34:17):
was environment than it was the last few days. Don't
know if I'll get there with the nine. There is
a couple eight and a half's out there eight and
a half over one twenty one twenty one. That would
be the only way I would go here is taking
a look at the offenses. But the need just isn't
there for Chicago right now. In Saint Louis, what do

(34:38):
they have to play for? So there's not a lot
jumping out on me on today's card. Hopefully I'll have
something for clients by the time we're done with the show,
but right now everything seems to be priced similar to
what I would have priced it. And if there's no value,
there's no value, and unfortunately, in this game, there's no
value for me.

Speaker 4 (35:00):
Yeah. These are two pitchers who both pitched in Japan
around seven years ago. Five years ago, Ray played for
the SoftBank Hawks and Thenicholas played for the Omute Giants.
But neither one. We're very impressive out here. They've been
better since they went back to the US, especially Reya

(35:22):
but head to head matchups, man Nicholas has been clobbered
by these guys. Uh. He's got a three three ten
average against in eight forty seven ops. He he played
in Major League, went to Japan, went to Mexico, I think,
and then he came back here to the US or
out there to the US. So some of those stats

(35:44):
might be a little misleading from his first go around.
But Raya, man, he's been awesome against these batters, a
one sixty one average against in a four to ninety
nine OPS. So advantage Raya in this matchup for sure.
Like Brian said, neither team really has much to play for,
but the pitchers don't care. The pitchers are playing to

(36:05):
keep their eras down. I think the problem. My first
instinct would be, okay, let's let's take the Cubs or
the Saint Louis under. But Saint Louis is crushing the
ball right now. I love how some of these teams
get hot right when they're out of the playoffs. You know,
it's kind of funny, like Saint Louis is one of them.

(36:26):
They're getting hot right now for some reason. They're they're
hitting pretty well. Uh, And so I don't really want
to take their their under in that one, don't really
want to take the Cubs. You know, when both teams
have their their exits from the playoffs or their playoff
seeding already set up. There's too many X factors for me.
So if anything, I would take the Cubs here, but

(36:49):
I probably won't.

Speaker 2 (36:53):
So that I'll play off of the point you just
just made their Yeah, I think that could also trickle
into bullpen usage. I think we could see teams a
little bit liberal with their bullpen usage here today in
terms of like who gets what innings?

Speaker 1 (37:06):
I don't think any.

Speaker 2 (37:06):
I don't think they're really trying to stress any especially
the Cubs. You're gonna have to play baseball next week,
so you may you may not see like them unload
high leverage relievers. I guess the point I'm trying to
make here is I feel like the over is a
good bet. Going back to what Bryan, So, what did
you say the park factors work for this game from
a weather standpoint, Brian.

Speaker 3 (37:24):
Is just one percent better than normal. But it's been
better than it has been the last few days. Well.

Speaker 2 (37:30):
Yeah, and the other thing I think is worth pointing out.
You know, the Cubs drop two of three from the Mets.
No big deal there, obviously, because they're sort of locked
into their seating. But my takeaway from that series, having
watched a lot of that series, is dare we say
the Cubs are heating up right now? I mean, this
is a this is an offense that really hasn't been
great in the second half. Right, Like, if you look
at the season arc for the Cubs, red hot out

(37:54):
of the gate, won a whole bunch of games. I
thought this lineup was world beaters out of the gate, right,
I Mean, you had p c Armstrong, felt like every
time he was coming to the plate, he was getting
a hit. They were scoring a bunch of runs. And
then for a couple of months it was it was
very much the opposite. I felt like they had to
win games with pitching. They just weren't getting those those
big time crooked innings and the big.

Speaker 1 (38:14):
Scoring out burst.

Speaker 2 (38:15):
And suddenly the last three days, twenty two runs in
three games against the Mets. Better pitching than they're going
to see here, right, Like, you know, had to hit,
had to get uh.

Speaker 1 (38:25):
They saw McClane yesterday.

Speaker 2 (38:26):
Jonah Toong in that series, they blew him up Yeah,
granted he's, you know whatever, he's a young guy. But still,
I think they saw better pitching top to bottom from
the Mets then they're going to see this weekend from
the Cardinals.

Speaker 1 (38:38):
You start with Nicholas.

Speaker 2 (38:40):
I mean, we all kind of agree that he's kind
of a you know, he's on the in the twilight
of his career, kind of a veteran guy that's just
there to eat up innings at this point, Tokyo Brandon
pointed out, pointing out the Cardinals, they're swinging the bats
reasonably well, you know, for a team that's out of it.
They've hit with runners at scoring position, and they're generating
some ausfense. So nine flat seems like here for me,

(39:01):
eight and a half would have been a no brainer.
But like right now, it looks like you can get
over nine even money some places, I think that's a
good bet. So I think the over is a solid play.
I make it personally, make it nine and a half.
And that is like the key threshold for an over
in my opinion. Nine to nine and a half is
like the biggest jump from a from a if you're
talking about an over, because once you're at nine and

(39:22):
a half, you take four four to four. Bailing you
out doesn't bail you out anymore. So I like the
I like the over. Go ahead, Brian.

Speaker 3 (39:30):
Is it possible that I could throw out a game
right now?

Speaker 1 (39:33):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (39:33):
Go ahead any places in the Parliament. Yet, there is
one game I do have some interest in. Tampa Bay
is playing Toronto Pauser against Beaver. Right now, Toronto is
about a one eighty favorite total seven and a half
to the over, eight to the under. There's a few

(39:54):
games like Cincinnati right now, even though they need to win,
there's there's a little bit of value on them. They're
they're not taking in money because they're playing Milwaukee, and
the other one is Tampa Bay. Here Howser's going for
Tampa Bay. He has not been the same for Tampa
that he had been in Chicago. But I'm not overly
impressed by what Beaver has done now, Grunt, he's gone

(40:15):
back from injury. It's gonna take him a while. But
you're playing a pretty good tax here on Toronto in
a must win game because they're tied with the Yankees
to win the division. But while it is it could
be considered a must win game, they've already plinched their
spot in the playoffs. They are one hundred percent in
the playoffs, the Yankees one hundred percent in the playoffs. Obviously,
they want to win the division because you want to

(40:35):
get that buy but is this line do you really
want to lay one eighty with Toronto the way they've
been playing, both teams are four and six the last
last ten games. We take a look at the run
differential on the season, Toronto is up sixty two, Tampa
Bay is up forty six. Tampa Bay is also only

(40:58):
two games ahead of Baltimore with three games to go.
Could you imagine Tampa Bay ending up the season that
they started off having and they end up in last
place in that division. I think there's a little bit
of value here on the underdog if you take a
look at Jeez put this thing Steck adds okay. Adrian

(41:20):
Hauser on the season three point one eighty RA a
four point oh eight expected. I would use that more
than his actually RA one point two seven went. But
he's in the eighty second percent tile and barrel rate,
round ball rate eightieth percentile, and extension eightieth percentile. Now's
with rates in the third percent sole hardhit rates is

(41:41):
a six strikeout rate sixteenth. He's not a major strikeout guy.
He does throw five pitches and he does throw a
sinker forty six percent of the time. When he's throwing
your sinker, you're going to give up not going to
give up many home runs, and that's one of the
reasons why she's had success this year. Shane Bieber comes
in with a three point five to seventy r, a

(42:01):
four point two to two expected, zero point nine to
six swept. He's always been a very good web one
point one one in his career. He has only thrown
thirty five innings, so that a lot of his numbers
have not stabilized. But his fastball velocity is really down.
He's in the twenty thirty percentile. He only throws ninety
two point six on his sports semer, which he uses
twice as much as any other pitch in the league.

(42:23):
Average from already eaters ninety five, so he doesn't have
that velocity is the average acts of velocity given up.
His barrel rate and his hard hit rate have all
been bad. He does get hit pretty hard. Do I
really want to play Toronto in this situation with I
don't see much of a starting pitching edge for Biaber

(42:44):
in this game. So I'm gonna take Tampa Bay in
this game. I could get him. Let's let's just go
about one fifty nine and I'm gonna use that as
my party one fifty nine for Tampa Bay and Toronto
from a bullpen perspective. Let me just check that real quick.
Toronto yesterday they had the bullpen game, so they had

(43:09):
Hoffman twenty three pitches, Tamingus sixteen, and Rodriguez five. They
hadn't pitched in the last three days. I'm not too
worried about that, but it's a situation for me whether
there's in a card that I don't see a lot
of value on. I think there's a little bit of
value on Tampa Bay, and I think the Reds have
a little bit of value. Other than that, it's nothing's

(43:30):
jumping out of me today, so I'll use the Tampa
Bay Here.

Speaker 4 (43:35):
Guys, go to waysgotalk dot com see what we have up.
I'm going to put my MLB play up right after
the show. Probably we'll have a free play, and I'm
sure my colleagues here will also have a free play
or a play up today. So take a look at
what we got go to the video replay and leave
a comment. We look at them all and we answer
most of them. Regarding this game, I'm one hundred percent

(43:58):
aligned with Brian or Toronto is the only team I
have that ranks twenty third or worse in all batting
categories and all bullpen categories, So that's not good. They
do have a pitching advantage in my opinion. I got
Bieber ranked twelve where I got Houser ranked eighteen, So

(44:20):
but twelve and eighteen not a huge not a huge discrepancy.
So if anything, I would go with Tampa perhaps or
maybe even the Toronto team total under perhaps because they've
just been ice cold behind the plate. I I don't
know why I don't. I don't know if I'll get
to it or not, And I don't know why I

(44:42):
like Tampa here, but for some odd reason, seems like
they can't win unless rasp since pitching. But they have
every advantage here in my opinion, So take them or
take them a plus one and a half or something somehow,
Take them and fade the Toronto bats is what I
would be doing.

Speaker 2 (45:01):
Yeah, RAS plus one and a half is a great
bet in my opinion, Like if you're talking about, you
know it price wise?

Speaker 1 (45:08):
Price wise, it's.

Speaker 2 (45:09):
A little lot of the range I would prefer, I
would say if this came down. But here's the thing, like,
the the need to win tax is alive and well
here on the Jays right like that's probably but the
Jay I will so two things. One, the books are
pricing in the need to win for the J's. Two,
the Blue Jays tend to be a little bit inflated.

Speaker 1 (45:29):
When they play at home.

Speaker 2 (45:30):
Anyway, I'll be interested to see how this sort of
goes throughout the day. If the Blue Jays take like
a more money and drive that price down even more,
it would be hard for me to not get involved
with the race here. So let me talk about Adrian
Houser for a minute, because that kind of makes a
handicap for me. So this is a guy that I
I not intentionally, but it was just something I kind

(45:51):
of picked up along the way watching minor league baseball
this year and then kind of decided to follow his season.

Speaker 1 (45:56):
He started the year in the Rangers organization.

Speaker 2 (45:59):
He was throwing the ball so good at Round Rock
that the Triple A manager who they interviewed like before
one of the Round Rock games.

Speaker 1 (46:07):
I just happened to have it on, so I was
waiting for the game to start.

Speaker 2 (46:10):
They talked to the Triple A manager and he pretty
much like almost was like, man, I wish he could
have like maybe not thrown as well yesterday because they
were about to put him on he was gonna have
to go on waivers and they were gonna need to
sign him to a new minor league contract. And I
think he was like joking to an extent. I don't
think he wants him to pitch poorly, but it was

(46:30):
like he went out and threw eight shutout innings and
it almost like alerted the league to like, oh, who's this, Like, oh,
this guy's out here, because remember Adrian Howse was a
veteran guy. I think he's just thrilled to be back
in the big leagues in a starting rotation. That's the
vibe I got from him earlier in the year. He
just wanted a chance he gets to the White Sox.
They interviewed him like early on during his time with

(46:51):
the White Sox, which was very good. That was he
was playing meaningless ball for the White Sox, so again,
you know, none of those games had any meaning The
socks when they picked him up. Where thirty games under
five hundred, and he threw the ball great, and he
was just very grateful to be back in a rotation
because you know, you get to his age, you don't
know if you're going to get back into a starting rotation.

(47:11):
So he was he was thrilled for the opportunity. He's
thrown it. Well, he's now on the Rays's he continues
to throw the ball. Well, you know, groundball percentage is great.
He's got pretty you know, he doesn't get a ton
of swinging miss But if you keep the ball on
the ground and you're in, you're not getting totally smoked.
From like a hard hit standpoint, you're typically okay. And

(47:32):
he does seem to give up some hard contact, but again,
if you're keeping the ball on the ground, it tends
to not be the end of the world. Like you know,
sometimes you might get blown up, but usually you're all right.
That's what he you know, last time out against the
Red Sox, quality start start before quality start against the
Cubs start before that five and a third against the
White Sox was you know, nine strikeouts start before that

(47:55):
seven innings, four runs, eight strikeouts against the Mariners, go
back his whole seat. There's very few times that he's
just picked bad right. It's it's pretty much like he
goes out five six innings. It's solid, gives his team
a chance to win. I'll go back to both of
you guys said about the Blue Jays. I'm not We
talked about this yesterday. This lineup has been poor for

(48:18):
a couple of weeks, like for a few weeks now.

Speaker 1 (48:20):
And.

Speaker 2 (48:22):
Now they're in the spot where they're gonna feel like
they need to generate offense, need to win. We've got
the Yankees. We're tied with the Yankees. We had this
lead for all this time, and now we're about to
lose the division on the last weekend of the season.
I don't like that at all for the Jas at
this price, I think that this is a crazy price
for them. So I'm with you guys. And if Brian
didn't throw it in the parlay, I might have. So

(48:42):
I think it's a good I think you're onto something
with the race for sure.

Speaker 1 (48:47):
Good. I want to go to a chat comment quick uh.

Speaker 2 (48:50):
Fixer says raised Rep five to two in the eighth
for soils and instead of sending their best relievers. They
left some pitcher in there knowing that he was getting
hit up. Not a team that should be even for
the price. This is kind of what I'm talking about though.
With some of these teams, it's like, yes, the Rays
focus right now is not like burning out every relief arm.

(49:11):
So that could have been a scenario where they just
wanted to see what a guy had. But it's like,
you're still going to see them mix up excuse me,
You're still going to see them mix up the relievers.
You're probably going to see the guys that didn't pitch yesterday.
So I don't think that's a reason to say like, oh, okay,
they're just out there trying to trying to tank games.
It's just, you know, that's why I think you're getting

(49:32):
plus one sixty. You're gonna have to live with a
little of that. I think you can live with it. Here,
go ahead, Brian.

Speaker 3 (49:37):
Yeah, Wednesday they used their best five relievers. They didn't
use them yesterday, so they may have been the case.
Kenna Kelly was out there. He blew it last night.
He's their sixth best reliever, at least from he's a
middle reliever. But that the games like the wins losses
don't mean as much for Tampa as obviously they would

(49:59):
for Toronto. But I could see why they did that yesterday.
That way, the rest of the weekend series they would
be able to use any of their guys at any time.
So that's a good point that the listener made. But
I'm not rating too much into.

Speaker 1 (50:12):
That, Russell.

Speaker 2 (50:16):
Yeah, we'll be on through the playoffs, same show, same time,
same place. As long as they're playing baseball, we're gonna
do the show. As it gets to the end of
the playoffs, the show maybe a little bit shorter because
of course we'll have less games, but yeah, same show
Monday through Friday, nine am Eastern through the playoffs. All right, Tokyo, Brandon,
do you have a game you want to talk about

(50:37):
for the parlay or do you know what did you
did your parley league come from a game that we've
already discussed.

Speaker 4 (50:42):
Yeah, I think, by the way, I have a new
appreciation for what's brought what Brian's doing after I spent
two or ten days waking up at six in the
morning to do the show. Couldn't couldn't drink this well that,
but I can do it now. It's Friday Night. So,
by the way, this Apple is really good. Uh. Anyways,

(51:03):
I liked Regular better though, but Apple's pretty good. I'm
gonna do the Yankees game. I'm can I do a
first five team total or do?

Speaker 2 (51:12):
People might get that now you can do it, they'll
have people can adjust if they need to adjust.

Speaker 1 (51:16):
But yeah, you're you're good to go there.

Speaker 4 (51:18):
I like I like the Yankees under two and a
half in the first five. It's minus one forty where
I'm seeing it. And you guys out there, if you
can't get that, then you can take the Yankees team
total under four and a half for the game. But
I like the first five better. So that's gonna be
my leg of the parlay.

Speaker 2 (51:37):
Yeah, and if you can't, if you can't, you know,
if you want another option again, like I I was
thinking about using Orioles plus a half run in the
first five for my leg. I'm not going to do
it now because you've you've used the game already, but
like that is, if you can't get that team total,
that's that's another option where you're where you're essentially betting
on Trevor Rodgers, which is kind of what Tokyo Brandon

(51:58):
is doing with his first five that which I very
much agree with.

Speaker 1 (52:00):
So I think I think you're good either end.

Speaker 4 (52:04):
Yeah, and and I'm also going to be a pig
and suggests a game that we do right now.

Speaker 1 (52:11):
Go ahead, that's fine.

Speaker 4 (52:12):
I want to know what you guys think about Jason
Alexander from Seinfeld Astros going against the Angels today. Actually
have Kyle Hendricks ranked higher than Alexander, but I don't
think that can be true, could it? Now? I have
them pretty equal, and I have I have the Astros

(52:36):
better at the Angels at almost everything, but just a
little bit better. The Astros had only scored seven runs
in five games until yesterday. They just blew up for
eleven or something like that. So I'm curious to hear
what you guys think about the Astros because I'm tempted
to take them, but I haven't done it yet, just
because they've been playing a little suspect lately. So, uh,

(53:01):
what do you think, Brian?

Speaker 3 (53:02):
Yeah, they weren't playing the Angels. The Angels I think
have given up, but the line's too high. If you
ask me, Houston Alexander against Hendricks for LA you're looking
at basically, Houston's about a one thirty one thirty two
favorite something of that effect a total of nine. Jason
Alexander comes in and he's got a four point five

(53:25):
excuse me, four point eight three ERA four point seven
zero expected one point thirty nine whip. That's his major
problems his whip. But if you look at his statcast page,
ground ball rate sixty six percentile, that's good. But he's
first percent talent, chase rate ten percent tle, hard hit
rate ten percentile in fastball velocity. He's a guy who

(53:46):
can get hit, and that's the kind of people that
the Angels could have some success against. Now you look
at Kyle Hendricks and I understand why your numbers have
him a little bit better, because as opposed to Alexander,
he's got a lot of red on his tech guest
page ninety fifth percentile and Abajackson velocity eighty first and

(54:08):
chase rate seventy six in walk rate ninety first and
hard hit rate. The problem similar to Alexander fastball velocity
only in the first percentile. He only throws seventy nine
point five miles an hour on his change in, eighty
six on his sinker and eighty six on his four seam,
so he's below average by about nine miles an hour

(54:30):
on his four singer He's fifth right, third percentile, strike
out rate, seventh and extension but despite being six foot three,
have an extension of in the first percentile. It is
kind of strange, but he's a guy who is having it,
I guess a decent season considering they've gotten him for
basically nothing and he's given him good innings all season long.

(54:53):
But do you trust the Angels right now from a
hitting standpoint? They are second to last again, right above Colorado,
with a seventy seven WRC plus the last two weeks,
and Houston's a team that has not been hitting much
better the bottom. Here's your bottom for the last two

(55:14):
weeks in WRC plus, going from bottom to top. Colorado,
the Angels, Cleveland, Houston, Pittsburgh, Washington, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, Chicago
White Sox. Not allowed to good hitting in that group,
and most of them are out of the playoffs except
for Cincinnati and Houston and Cleveland. They all have week

(55:38):
situations from the hitters, and I talked about yesterday. Houston,
their best hitter has been hurt, their leadoff hitter, So yeah,
if I played it, I'd play the Angels, but I'd
feel a little bit more confident if Houston was playing
another team that was playing a little bit better ball
right now. But I don't want to lay one thirty
in that range on the road with Houston right now,

(55:59):
I'll tell you that.

Speaker 2 (56:02):
Yeah, that's kind of where I'm at as well. I
don't I have no issues playing against the Astros. I
don't really. I haven't really liked Alexander all year. I
feel like he's pitched over his head a little bit,
not really an an MLB rotation piece in my opinion,
Like he's someone I would want to go against. But
the Angels just that they've been a tough team to

(56:22):
back for a couple of weeks now run differential on.

Speaker 4 (56:25):
The season year.

Speaker 1 (56:27):
Yeah, but that's the thing.

Speaker 2 (56:28):
We had this conversation when you on one of the days,
the last couple of days, and like for the first
like three or four months of the year, they really
were going out there giving an effort, winning games, hanging
around five hundred. I never thought it was realistic, and
it's now the last couple of months is what I
thought we were going to see from them all year.
I mean, they're they're gonna end up where I thought

(56:50):
they would probably end up, actually probably a little bit better.
I didn't think the Angels were going to get the
seventy wins this season, So the fact that they're at
seventy one, they they've been better than I could imagine
they would be. But all of the bad is right now,
like all of the bad is the last couple of weeks.
So go ahead, Brian, what were you going.

Speaker 3 (57:07):
To say, Well, we haven't had a lot of comedy
on the show at six o'clock in the morning out
here in Vegas. But since Jason Alexander is pitching for
Houston today, you can say the Houston Bats have had
a little bit of shrinkage second half of the season.

Speaker 2 (57:21):
Yeah, listen, that was one of the big points I made.
I cashed my Mariners Al West bet, and one of
the reasons I liked that was, you know, looking at
Houston's lineup, I'm like, this looks like sugar Lands lineup.

Speaker 1 (57:35):
And this team's twenty games over five hundred. How is
that even possible?

Speaker 2 (57:38):
Well, it really wasn't possible, at least for them to
keep that going.

Speaker 1 (57:43):
Now, the Astros.

Speaker 2 (57:44):
One thing I'll give the Astros here is that as
an organization, they have a culture of winning. Okay, that
they are an organization that tends to win the big game.

Speaker 1 (57:55):
They have a winning culture.

Speaker 2 (57:57):
And I wouldn't be at all surprised if they go
out sweep the Angels this weekend and they're the final
team in the wild card and suddenly they're a pain
in the playoffs, because it's just the culture that's been
built in that Astros organization for the past ten years.
It makes this a very challenging handicap because if I'm
looking at the starting pitchers, there's more to like about Hendricks.

(58:20):
The one thing I've said about Hendricks all year, he's
in numbers accumulator. So when you look at his numbers,
you know he's out there accumulating like stats because he's
very consistent. He's throwing strikes, he's not giving up like
a ton of really doesn't give up much hard contact.
But a pitcher like that who throws eighty six if

(58:41):
they if they are bad, they're gonna get crushed. And
that's what we saw when he faced the Mariners. Two
starts to go, nine runs, ten hits, three and a thirty.

Speaker 1 (58:49):
Hasn't had that.

Speaker 2 (58:49):
Many of those this year, but the potential is always
there for Hendricks to have a start like that. I again,
it'll be It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
I think I'm with Brian. I'd love to find a
way to play the Angels. I just don't have any
faith in them as a team right now, So I'm
out on this one. But I will close out of
parlay with that Cubs Cardinals over that That's gonna be

(59:11):
where I'm gonna go for the parlay. Brian, What am
I looking at for a market price on that right now?
Is it nine still.

Speaker 3 (59:18):
Current number for the Cubs and St. Louis? It's nine
over like minus one oh four or something in that range.

Speaker 2 (59:30):
Yeah, that's moving a little bit toward where I expected
it to move. It was there was when we got
on the show. You could have got a couple of
nine like plus Moneys. I didn't think that would hang
around very long and it hasn't. Just to feel like
it could be a little bit of a free for
all type game at Wrigley, neither team's desperate to win.
Kobbe starting to swing the bat well and if you
missed us talk about that game as always. This show

(59:51):
is up live and on demand on the way You're
Talking YouTube channel. You can head back and see our
full breakdown of Cubs Cardinals. But that's where I'm going
to go for the parlay. So let's get a part.
Let's get a price here. It's the last three. This
is gonna be a good price. Brian Leonard's like, we're
not fing around last one of the regular season. We're
gonna throw minus or plus one sixty in there. So

(01:00:12):
this actually might this might come out to be the
biggest price we've had. Well, no, not not not so much.
Forgot there was minus minus one forty on an under
two and a half, Brian, Is that what we said?
The team total minus one forty Yankees team total under
two and a half?

Speaker 3 (01:00:27):
Is that first five?

Speaker 1 (01:00:29):
First five? Sorry?

Speaker 3 (01:00:30):
Yeah, team totally Yankees? Yeah, two and a half minus.

Speaker 2 (01:00:41):
It's not the biggest one we've had because we've had
a couple nine to one shots this year.

Speaker 1 (01:00:44):
I do remember that off the top of my head.

Speaker 2 (01:00:46):
But plus seven sixty seven, what a what a way
to end the regular season. If we can hit this
the it's gonna be so my leg will go during
the day, So I guess we'll know early if we're
alive or not. Cubs Cardinals over nine in the day Tokyo,
Brandon is going with the Yankees first five under two
and a half. That's a team total. So Yankees team

(01:01:07):
total under two and a half in the first five.
Brian Leonard says, raised money line. That's just raised plus
one fifty nine plus one sixty whatever you can get
it at. Obviously shop it around, that's gonna come out
plus seven sixty seven ons. So one more time. Cubs
Cardinal's over nine, Yankee's first five team total under two
and a half, raise money line. It would be a

(01:01:30):
great way to end the season if we can get
it done. Go go ahead, Brian.

Speaker 3 (01:01:33):
What's our our year today going into today? On the
on the sparlers.

Speaker 1 (01:01:40):
Going up.

Speaker 4 (01:01:41):
Let me remind everyone that wayser Talk allows us to
put MLB plays out for nine dollars now if they're not, so,
if Brian, Adam or I have an MLB play out today,
they will be nine dollars. So if they're not a
five percent, so go to waysjatalk dot com and see
what MLB we have up for nine bucks.

Speaker 2 (01:02:04):
So to answer your question, Brian up three point one
four units, or if you were to play them, you know,
if you were to play them even evenly for the
same amount all year, a dollar has returned three dollars
and fourteen cents, So not that. Again, the fact that
we're even ahead on these.

Speaker 3 (01:02:18):
Is we're aligning the regular season with a winning record,
which is pretty impressive. When we get to the playoffs
and there's only a certain amount of games, it's going
to be honest with it, it's gonna be tougher. We
may have to use some player props or.

Speaker 1 (01:02:29):
Something, yeah, or what we'll we'll we'll see how it goes.

Speaker 2 (01:02:33):
I think, like, you know, we could always just if
we kind of agree on something, we could almost do
like a consensus type thing where it's like, oh, do
we like this one and maybe we only end up
with a two teamer, but yeah, we could always do
that as well.

Speaker 1 (01:02:45):
We'll see how it goes. Let's see how today goes.

Speaker 2 (01:02:48):
And of course early next week I think we should
have you know, we're going to have options those there
should be four games a day at least for a
couple of days. My guess is we'll be back on Twouesday.
I don't think there's games on Monday.

Speaker 1 (01:03:02):
Is that correct? Is Monday looked yet? So yeah, yeah,
so so Monday.

Speaker 2 (01:03:11):
So Monday, we will not have a show because it's
a it's a league wide off day. The playoffs start Tuesday,
so we will be back Tuesday, nine am Eastern. Four
games in the in the play and round, and we
will be with you, I believe, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, because
Friday is also an off day.

Speaker 1 (01:03:32):
So that's the schedule for next week.

Speaker 2 (01:03:34):
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, normal show, full hour, nine am Eastern.
We'll be breaking down the wild Card round of the playoffs.
And yeah, hope you have a great weekend. Let's hit
one more parlay cash are your tickets, don't forget nine dollars.
MLB plays up on all of our pages, and we'll
see you guys Tuesday,