November 19, 2025 • 37 mins
Dive into the heart of NFL betting with our expert panel! Join Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo and Gianni the Greek as they provide in-depth analysis and professional insights on Week 12 NFL games.
Intro 00:00
TNF: Buffalo at Houston 01:06
SNF: Tampa Bay at LA Rams 02:10
MNF: Carolina at San Francisco 05:59
Gianni the Greek Steam Report 09:25
Barking Dogs 12:05
Marco Barko 12:26
VR’s Barking Dog 15:17
BONUS F1 VR GOLD!! 19:30
KIV’s Barking Dog 21:08
Marco’s Deli 23:00
Marco’s TRAP GAME OF THE WEEK 23:43
Best Bets 26:55
VR’s NFL Best Bet 27:03
Marco on Aaron Rodgers & Steelers 30:10
Marco’s NFL Best Bet 31:45
Kelly NFL Best Bet 35:10
Recap 37:00
Intro 00:00
TNF: Buffalo at Houston 01:06
SNF: Tampa Bay at LA Rams 02:10
MNF: Carolina at San Francisco 05:59
Gianni the Greek Steam Report 09:25
Barking Dogs 12:05
Marco Barko 12:26
VR’s Barking Dog 15:17
BONUS F1 VR GOLD!! 19:30
KIV’s Barking Dog 21:08
Marco’s Deli 23:00
Marco’s TRAP GAME OF THE WEEK 23:43
Best Bets 26:55
VR’s NFL Best Bet 27:03
Marco on Aaron Rodgers & Steelers 30:10
Marco’s NFL Best Bet 31:45
Kelly NFL Best Bet 35:10
Recap 37:00
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
NFL Week twelve is right around the corner.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
We're gonna get you ready with all those barking dogs
those primetime games. Of course, we're gonna get the early
steam report from VR and see if we've got a
sandwich or a trap game this week. Best bets. I've
got to turn it around on this week's beat on
It Monday when I did the script, Buffalo is a
(00:36):
three and a half point favorite.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Now they're up to six and a lot.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Of spots there on the Odds logic screen at Houston
total forty three and a half. But before we get
into it, we gotta bring in the guys. We've got
Marco dangel there in the middle, We've got Yanni the
Greek in the third chair, and we're gonna keep it rolling.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
You guys have been red hot.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
My best bets have been the Achilles heel of the show,
as the comments section likes to tell me. But we're
gonna turn it around right here by telling you guys
that I know Buffalo got back in the win cal
him against said best bet of the Bucks last week,
and Houston hey back to back divisional game winners versus
(01:14):
the Jags and the Titans, all with a little guy
named Davis Mills.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
No.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
CJ.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Stroud for Thursday Night Football was already announced this morning,
and I think that's probably why we saw this line
come up since Monday. But as Davis Mill has really
been that bad, seven and twenty six yards, sixty percent completions,
three touchdowns, one interception, Okay, fine, he hasn't been that good.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
But you know who has been really good? Defense?
Speaker 2 (01:39):
That's right, the Texans number one in EPA per play allowed,
number three and success rate number two and passing success
rate and number four in EPA per rush attempt. You're
gonna give me six points with that defense at home
on a short week, I'm gonna take it. Next up,
we've got the team that scorned me, and VR is
going to tell you Night Football whether the Buccaneers plus
(02:03):
six and a half at the La Rams forty nine
and a half is worth.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
A look yet.
Speaker 4 (02:08):
Disclaimer, I have not gotten to the window with this game.
But seven and four on the TV bet in the
NFL coming into this week twenty twelve and one on
bet on it, that's sixty three percent combined with college
football bet on it forty eight twenty and one, So
that's over seventy percent. So far, so good. Let's keep
(02:30):
it going. Not going to mess with the side yet
because I have a strong lean, but I need some
confirmation to get to the window done real good with
these primetime games. Don't want to paint myself into a corner.
But let's look at this total where I think we
got some value on the under because I think it's
inflated up at forty.
Speaker 5 (02:47):
Nine and a half and we haven't seen any movement.
That's what I like.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
You're not seeing that even the wise guys getting out
ahead of the public who will be betting this game over,
they haven't gotten out ahead of it. Where usually that's
what you see on the primetime games, where we'd wake
up and look at at least a fifty and a
half because they expect the market to move in that direction.
But here's the recency bias that we can take advantage of.
(03:11):
You have Tampa Bay who's coming in have been scored
thirty two, twenty three, twenty three. You have the Rams
who come in scoring twenty one, forty two, thirty four,
thirty five, a lot of points, a lot of points.
Speaker 5 (03:27):
But when you look at.
Speaker 4 (03:28):
The side of Tampa, this is the highest total they've
had the entire season.
Speaker 5 (03:34):
No total this high for Tampa Bay.
Speaker 4 (03:37):
And then when you look at the Rams, only twice
in their last ten games they have they had a
total that has been this high. And they're actually have
had one game more to the under than over their
last ten. In fact, only four overs in their last
ten games, So both are looking at a much higher
(03:57):
total than usual. Why because of that recency bias. But
let's look at the matchup real quickly. Tampa Bay looks
like they gave up a lot of points of late,
but they went up against some very powerful offenses. More importantly,
last week, they went up against the number one offense
in Buffalo, who they allowed forty four points to. That's
not going to be the same offense they're facing this
(04:18):
week against the Rams top ten offense, but nothing compared
to the number one offense of Buffalo, so it'll be
almost like slow motion again compared to last week. And
then on the Rams side, you're looking at the best
defense in the NFL efficiency wise, so a Tampa offense
that's very respectable top ten considering they had the third
(04:39):
toughest strength of schedule in the NFL. But they're really
going to get tested this week against the Rams, who've
also had a top ten strength of schedule and are
number one inefficiency, So I don't think Tampa's going to
have an easy go of it like they've had over
the last four or five weeks. With that said, gonna
(05:00):
go under forty nine and a half. Again, I thought
we'd get even higher number, thought that the Sharps would
go over. That's not the case, So we'll go forty
nine and a half.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
I like it all right.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Monday Night Football for Marco DiAngelo my NFC South prediction
winner that was the Carolina Panthers. Yeah, they're just kind
of frustrating at times, also been plagued by the injury bug.
Speaking the injury bug, the Niners who they're facing, and
finally starting to get healthy. And I think we can
all agree that brock Party is better than MATC.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Jones.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
Marco, this line is interesting, just sitting there six and
a half as the favorite there for San Francisco.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Forty eight and a half is the total.
Speaker 2 (05:44):
Make this one make a little bit of sense because
I've got to thinking that I would have expected more
of a seven and a half point favorite for the Niners.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
So this one looks like it's begging for San fran money.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
Yeah, on the straight play. Yeah, But I'm not going
that way, Kelly. I'm going to go like VR. I'm
looking at the total and I'm looking at the under
in this one. In the similarities from the game the
VR just did in this one, they're the same because
it's recency bias. If you look at this total of
forty eight and a half and you look at last
(06:17):
week's games, Carolina won thirty to twenty seven, fifty seven points,
and then San Francisco won forty one to twenty two.
They scored sixty three points. What's the public going to
do on a standalone game on a Monday night. They're
gonna bet the over, and that's not the way to
go here. I'm looking at the under because if you
(06:37):
dig deeper and you look at San Francisco last week,
they put up forty one points with just two hundred
and eighty one yards of offense. What they did in
that game They had a ninety nine yard kick return
to start the game and then they had three Arizona turnovers.
That did Arizona in Carolina. If you look at their game,
(07:00):
they put up thirty, but they caught an Atlanta team
that was in a horrible scheduling spot. Atlanta played the
week before overseas, they didn't take their bye week afterwards.
That is bad. We saw earlier this season when Denver
did that, and we know how good the Denver defense is.
(07:20):
They gave up thirty one to thirty one or thirty
two points to the Giants that week in that miraculous
comeback game. So it's a situation where we're getting an
overreaction to one game. Go back to the four previous
games for Carolina. They scored seven, sixteen, nine, and thirteen
(07:43):
points in their four games before last week's explosion. Bryce
Young four hundred and nineteen yards last week passing the football.
You know what he had in his three previous games
combined three hundred and thirty four. No, I'm not gonna
go with the over here, and if I'm in San Francisco,
we know the problem with the forty nine ers. It's
(08:06):
their defense, and it's because of all the injuries they've
suffered on that side of the football this year. Yes,
they're getting healthier on the offensive side, but the defensive
side is still vulnerable. So what does that mean, you
want to keep the defense off the field. How do
you keep the defense off the field. You run the football.
And when you got a running back named Christian McCaffrey,
(08:28):
you're gonna hand him the ball in this one. And
he's gonna be a little pumped up for this game
because he's facing his former teammates. Let's go ahead and
take under forty eight and a half. Now, I normally
I tell you when I give you a total, act
on this one. Now, because it's gonna move weight on
this one. There's only one way the public's gonna bet
this game. They're gonna bet it over. We'll get value
(08:49):
closer to game time. I'm taking under the total, but
for the official rating for the show, it's forty eight
and a half right now, Okay.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
On Sundays and Sunday VR is going to join me
as I fill in for Aero Epstein. On Last Call,
we do a little segment called the steam Room an
hour up until kickoff, VIR goes through the entire NFL
slate with you guys. Premium subscribers are always invited, and
of course, wager Talk insiders will be invited this week
(09:18):
to join wager Talk Insiders and wt Dot Buzz backslash Insiders.
If you give them the early week preview of what
the wise guys are playing.
Speaker 4 (09:26):
Oh yeah, we're gonna zero in on those NFL games
that I've seen multiple groups attack and more importantly, after
the initial hit on the look ahead lines and join
me on Sunday hour before kickoff. We'll go through all
the NFL games as much as time permits. Signed totals
(09:47):
player props there to answer all your questions. We'll put
those plus EB teasers together towards the end of the show,
and again you'll get the live stuff also. Now here's
some of the moves for some. They start off two
forty three New York Jets j e ts took the
two touchdowns and a hook at fourteen and a half.
(10:07):
Also took out the fourteens against Baltimore New York Giants
at eleven and a half. You saw them post that
number really high compared to that look ahead They took
that down and that's why you're looking at ten and
a half against Detroit. So the New York parlay Jets
and Giants, New England Patriots game two forty seven, no
surprise getting out ahead of the market. That'll be heavily
(10:29):
one sided from the public as well. The look ahead
was four and a half. They moved it to five
immediately on. The look ahead went to five and a half,
went to six, six and a half. That's why you're
looking at a touchdown now two forty nine Seattle minus
twelve and a half and thirteen against Tennessee.
Speaker 5 (10:45):
They also steamed that.
Speaker 4 (10:46):
One under, So usually the correlation is you're gonna cover thirteen,
probably gonna go over a low total of forty two.
Not the case here. Don't expect much scoring from Tennessee.
That total got hit at forty two, which was the
look ahead. Forty two and a half got hit it
forty one under as well, and then forty and a
half earlier this morning to sixty New Orleans the Saints
(11:09):
plus three and a half, three two and a half,
one one and a half, all because of Penix. So
quickly the books were adjusting based on that news. But
when it got to its high as Saints minus two,
that's when you saw some take back on Atlanta. So
wanted to put that game in there because it's getten
a lot of volume already, and you saw that that
(11:32):
flip of the favorite that happened very quickly because of
the penis injury. And finally to sixty six San Francisco
minus the five and a half, minus the six and
a half and then over forty five and a half
and forty six look ahead forty seven, forty seven and
a half and forty eight.
Speaker 5 (11:48):
So they light that over in the Niners. It's going
to do it. For this week's steam report, join me
Sunday morning for last Coal and then steam Room right after.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
And because I've been bringing up the bottom of the
barrel in terms of best bets, the marking Dog segment
has been our best segment all season long. Here on
the show, Marco Dandel, I'm gonna let you go first.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
This is the dog I was looking at as well.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
There's a few around that field goal underdog that are
rather enticing this week.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Tell me why you like the Cleveland Browns well, Kelly.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
A couple of weeks ago, we got comments in the
YouTube channel asking if I was off my meds, and
they might ask again because we're even looking at this
game Cleveland and the Raiders, you know, and I equate
this game to being like trying to decide whether you
want to be punched in the face or kicked in
the balls. Neither one's gonna be pleasant. But somebody's got
(12:46):
to win this game. And this is what I'm looking at. Yes,
Shador Sanders makes his NFL debut this week as a starter.
We saw him last week and oh god, was it awful.
And that's what people are going to react to, is
because when he did come into the game last week,
it was ugly. But here's the thing. He came into
(13:07):
the game coll didn't get the first string snaps last week,
was running the game plan that was designed for Dylan Gabriel,
not him. Now he's gonna have had a week of snaps,
gonna have a game plan that's prepared Taylor made to
what strengths he has, and we'll find out if he
has any. And he's gonna be going against a Raider
(13:27):
team that is a complete dumpster fire. It has been
a train wreck of a season for the Raiders. The
defense is not playing well, the offense is playing pitiful.
Geno Smith is reverted back to New York Jet Gino Smith.
They can't score, and they're coming off of back to
back nationally televised games. If you remember two weeks ago,
(13:50):
they played division rival Denver on Thursday night football, big
game for them. They put up good effort and they
only lost by three, and then they had to follow
that up with another the primetime game on Monday night,
in which, you know, let's be honest, you know, they
looked horrible against Dallas and they couldn't move the football
against the Dallas defense that everybody moves the football against.
(14:14):
So the one consistent factor with the Browns all year
has been that defense. How are the Raiders going to
move the football against the Cleveland brown defense?
Speaker 1 (14:26):
They're not.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
And you hear me say it all the time. Give
me the better defense getting points. That's where I'm gonna
line up, and the Raiders should not be a three
and a half point favorite against anybody, even a Shador
Sanders led Browns team. I'm gonna go ahead take the
Cleveland Browns as my barking dog. It's gonna be ugly
to watch sixteenth thirteen equivalent to paint dry, watching paint dry,
(14:51):
paint dry.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
Yeah, that's uh, it's better than what we saw on
Monday night from the Raiders. The Raiders were just completely abysmal.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
Gino Smith just got decimated by the Dallas defense v R.
I'm gonna talk about Dallas here in a minute, but
we're gonna go to you first, because your marking dog
is pretty sizable here, and maybe you think that people
should be a little nervous playing against them here in Survivor.
Speaker 5 (15:15):
Yeh.
Speaker 4 (15:16):
And I'm fading the wise guys because earlier in that'
steme report you heard New England minus four and a half,
minus five, then the five, five and a half, six,
six and a half. I've bet it at plus eight
and a half. I sent it out to subscribers at
plus eight and a half on Cincinnati because that's just.
Speaker 5 (15:34):
Way too many points.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
And the difference between what wise guys bet and what
the number is now are two completely different games. So
I'm not afraid of them having a ticket of New
England minus four and a half, five and a half
or even six in their pockets. We're up over a touchdown.
That's key here with Cincinnati. I was surprised, why is
it that high? But then I took a look at
the ESPN power ratings, and here's what I see their
(15:57):
power rankings. Forgive me, they're tough Rams Philly, New England,
Indianapolis and Denver.
Speaker 5 (16:07):
That's their top five. So what do you see there?
Top records in the league?
Speaker 4 (16:13):
Right, everyone who's sitting at the top of the division
at seven and at eight and two is.
Speaker 5 (16:19):
In their top power rankings.
Speaker 4 (16:21):
Right, nothing could be further from the truth. They got
one right, They got one right. That was the La
Rams are the highest power rated team right now on
my power ratings as well, overtaking Detroit who was number
one last week at my numbers, but behind the Rams
or Detroit who.
Speaker 5 (16:41):
Dropped it a second slot. KC, Yes five and five.
Speaker 4 (16:45):
KC. The power rankings show who would be favored, and
I'm telling you right now, only one or two teams
would be favored over Kansas City on a neutral Seattle
number four, Buffalo number five power rating wise. And that's
why we're able to take advantage of New England because
they have New England top three.
Speaker 5 (17:05):
I have New England.
Speaker 4 (17:06):
They just cracked my face. They're barely fifteenth. They're fourteenth
power rating wise, the fourteenth best team, so they'd beat
dogs to thirteen other teams even sitting at that record,
and why they've had the thirty second toughest strength of schedule,
so they've had the easiest schedule in all of the NFL,
(17:27):
and yet they're only fifteenth most efficient offense, twelfth most
efficient defense. Like, they're barely in the top half of
the NFL with the very easiest schedule. They've gotten wins,
that's the bottom line, but they're not that good as
their rankings show, power rating wise on sites like ESPN.
Speaker 5 (17:51):
Look at Cincinnati.
Speaker 4 (17:52):
Now they're facing a Cincinnati team had a much tougher
strength of schedule. Offensively more efficient, they're top fifteen defense.
Speaker 5 (18:01):
That's where they're week.
Speaker 4 (18:02):
But fortunately they're going up against a week offense fifteenth
in New England who had a thirty second strength of schedule.
See how that all fits together. It'll be easier for
Cincinnati this week than off Late. Again, New England's been
winning games and outperforming the betting market. That was impressive.
We talked about that a few weeks ago. But like
(18:22):
all efficient markets, they correct itself. And what has happened
to New England over the last three weeks. They've won
three games, but they've only covered one of those. That's
the reflection of the market doing exactly what it's supposed
to do. And now they're playing a Cincinnati team that's
coming in having underperformed three straight games. That's why they're
getting more than a touchdown now. In those three games
(18:43):
that they lost, they were never getting more than five
and a half points. In fact, they were favored in
two of those. They're now an eight and a half
point dog. Give me Cincinnati plus the points. I'm not
worried about injuries and stuff like that. I'll take the
home team here. New England overrated over and this number
is just way too high.
Speaker 2 (19:03):
I don't know VR if the comment section of the
show is anything like my.
Speaker 5 (19:09):
Bring it please, please please, because right now I get
it every week.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
Hands so mad at me that I turned around and
picked a fight with Bears fans, and I'm like, I'm
a Broncos fan.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
I think they're overrated as well.
Speaker 4 (19:21):
Hell, I have no bias. I get it every week
in the Dogs. And here here's what I am with
the dogs in the NFL, with these ugly dogs. Eight
two and one eighty percent.
Speaker 5 (19:31):
With these ugly dogs.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
And if you didn't like that dog, here I'll give you.
I'll give you the Vegas race right here. Formula one
is in Vegas this week. I'll give you a plus
four to fifty. The winner of the race is going
to be where'd he go?
Speaker 5 (19:44):
George Russell? George Russell plus.
Speaker 4 (19:46):
Four fifty to win the Formula one race here in
Las Vegas.
Speaker 5 (19:51):
And then bet Kimmy.
Speaker 4 (19:53):
K I am I that's the last name at plus
two hundred to be on the podium to finish top three.
And finally, the the team with the most points and
also the team the winning constructor, that's a prompt will
be Mercedes AMG. Mercedes AMG will have the most points
at plus one fifty and they will be the winning
constructor at plus three hundred. So you got it, plus
(20:14):
four fifty, plus two hundred, plus three hundred and plus
one fifty. If that's not enough barking dogs for you,
what could I do?
Speaker 5 (20:22):
What could I do? Jicksell?
Speaker 1 (20:23):
I get it.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
The marking dog segment has been my saving grace this year.
Got it done last week with Carolina. They knocked talkings
out of a ton of people in survivor pools. And
I think no one's probably gonna use the Eagles this weekend.
Hopefully they're gonna save it for Black Friday. Speaking of
Black Friday, we're gonna be doing a Thanksgiving and Black
Friday Show.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
We're gonna do it early in the week. If you
are an.
Speaker 2 (20:45):
Insider WT Dot buzz backslash Insiders to join you, guys
are gonna get early access to that one Tuesday afternoon.
We'll call it Tuesday Afternoon is you'll get all four
games from us for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, and then
of course same time, same place next Wednesday for the
Sunday games as well as Monday Night Football.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
Now I'm taking the Dallas.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Cowboys here, plus the field goal and the hook.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
And I know the Eagles have won and covered their.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
Last four games, including last week that sleepy.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
Home win over the Lions.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
Dallas needed that bye week so badly, and then they
came out with an impressive road win over Well. I
know it's still the Raiders, but that defense showed up
and has looked significantly better since Week seven. Number nineteen
in EPA per play, Number fifteen in EPA per drop back.
Speaker 1 (21:36):
Now with a new guy named Quinnon Williams there as
a defensive tackle.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
He had one and a half sacks last week, and
I think that he has motivated this defensive line, which
bodes well with the Eagles offensive line, who is going
to be without Lane Johnson for this game, and I
think that people don't recognize how a veteran offensive lineman
can affect the yes. I also know Dallas is on
(22:02):
a short week and hopefully Ceedee Lamb and George Piggins
actually follow team rules so they can play the first
series of this game. But I do think that I'm
going to take the better defense plus the points here.
Remember Dallas had held Ashon Johns to seven roushing yards
on six carries on Monday Night.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
Maybe they can do the same for Saquon on Sunday.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
Give me the Cowboys plus three and a half as
my barking dog.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
For NFL Week twelve.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Marco DiAngelo, your standalone segment is called the Deli. We've
been doing it for years on the show, and you
decided with our production team, Hey, I'm gonna make this
bigger because there's so many teams that fit into these situations,
whether it's college football or NFL, and we want to
give them to our audience for free here on the
Wager Talking YouTube channel.
Speaker 1 (22:52):
Tell everybody how the Deli's been doing. I'll give you
guys a hind It's been really good.
Speaker 3 (22:57):
Well, Delli, we've had eight winning weeks only to lose
weeks one break even week. That's pretty good run. That's
converted to thirty five and eighteen for the season. We
give five games on the show each week and that'll
come out on Thursday and then of course be part
of the bet on It Mega Show as well. So
check out the Deli and I love you guys jumping
(23:20):
into the comments section. We get a lot of interaction
into comments, a lot of people. I like to hear
where everybody is watching from, see where our audience base is,
and we've had people watching from other countries and everything else.
It's really cool. So tune in Thursday for that and
this week for the Deli, we're looking at a track
(23:43):
trap and that trap game is going to be the
Arizona Jacksonville game. This is gonna be hard to swallow
off of last week's results, but guys, we know the
old saying nobody is as good as their best game.
Enter the Jacksonville Jaguars who beat the Chargers. Who was
(24:04):
everybody's darling after they took care of the Steelers on
Sunday Night Football. They beat them thirty five to six. Oh,
what's the second part of the saying nobody is as
bad as their worst game. Enter the Arizona Cardinals, who
lost last week forty one to twenty two to the
forty nine Ers. Now, I mentioned in that game that
(24:26):
the forty nine er game was very misleading, as the
forty nine Ers had all those points, forty one points
with just two hundred and eighty one yards of offense.
Why well, we told you that kick return and three
Arizona turnovers. Guess what Jacoby Burssett had last year. Last
(24:46):
week he led that team to four hundred and eighty
eight yards of offense in defeat. I look for them
to have a big game this week. And before you
start jumping up and down about Jacksonville and how they
demolished the Chargers, Trevor Lawrence had just one hundred and
fifty three yards passing last week. Yeah, granted, they had
(25:07):
a big lead most of the games, so they were
running the football, But what about the week before you
only had one hundred and nineteen yards. I cannot fall
for Jacksonville as a road favorite. They're in the old
fat and sassy alert mode after that win last week.
This will be the third road game in four weeks
(25:28):
for Jacksonville. But it gets worse if you go back
before the four weeks they had their bye week. What
did they have before the bye week? They played over
in London. Think about this. In a matter of six weeks,
they had four games where they traveled. They traveled to London,
then they came back here. They played the Raiders here
(25:53):
in Vegas, went back home, played Houston. Then they also
went and played another road game. Now coming here to Arizona,
that is a lot of traveling miles and you're crossing
a lot of time zones coming from Florida. As Kelly
knows that she travels a lot of Florida and traveling
cross country. This is gonna take its tear on this team.
(26:16):
We've got the situation with the travel, We've got the
situation with Fat and Sassy off that big win, and
we got an Arizona team that wasn't as bad as
the score looked last week. I'm gonna go ahead and
take Arizona. I think this is a spot for them
to get a win. I'm calling it Arizona twenty four twenty.
I know it's hard to swallow, but some of those
(26:38):
the harder. The ticket to place the bet sometimes are
the easiest to cash.
Speaker 2 (26:44):
Marco, I think I'm just gonna have to tease that team,
and teasers been working out.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
Really well, and it just it's not as hard to swallow.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
When you're getting touchdown there with the Arizona Cardinals. Let's
get into those best bets and I'm hoping to give
you guys a winner this week, but we're gonna let
VR go first. He's got a nice total for you
guys in that exact same game, yep.
Speaker 5 (27:06):
And my NFL package is already up.
Speaker 4 (27:09):
I'm gonna do just like I did last Sunday and
the Sunday before that, just tie up the strongest plays
on that board for Sunday, which will be all the
four percent plays. Last week, the four percent went five
and one, so two of those are already in there.
I know you're at wondering where's the college football card.
It's not up there yet because I'm firing a five
(27:29):
percent big move in college football this week. It's only
the fifth this season, so this is the thirteenth week
of college football. This will only be the fifth time
I'm firing a five percent big move in college football.
Up over one hundred and thirty units, and sitting at
number one, that package will be up. I'm just waiting
to see when's the best time to get down on
that big bet. Now here's our best bet as of
(27:52):
today in the NFL. We're gonna look at the Jacksonville
Arizona total and take advantage of some recency bias there.
It looks like Arizona's giving up a lot of points
of late, but if you look at the offenses they
faced in efficiency, they played the number five, number nine,
number four, number three, and number.
Speaker 5 (28:12):
Thirteenth most efficient offenses.
Speaker 4 (28:14):
Okay, now they're going up against Jacksonville that's out of
the top fifteen and didn't have I mean, they had
a decent strength of schedule, but they're out of the
top fifteen, so they're gonna have an easier go of it.
So that defense that is low terrific will have an
easier offense to contend with this week. Same thing with
Jacksonville on their side of the ball, which has been
(28:37):
the weaker side defense, they're not going to have as
difficult a time this week because they're facing offense that's
out of the top fifteen on the Arizona side as well.
So I look for both defenses to perform better because
they're going up against much weaker offenses. And then when
you look at the offensive side of the ball again,
(29:00):
I don't think Jacksonville is gonna have the success they've
had of late, like they did against the Chargers Houston
and Vegas.
Speaker 5 (29:08):
When you dig into those box scores, you'll see.
Speaker 4 (29:11):
Some horrific turnover differential and I don't think they'll be
able to sustain that. So I think the Jacksonville Jaguars
will have trouble cracking seventeen points this week against Arizona,
and I really don't think Arizona's gonna be able to
crack much more than twenty against them.
Speaker 5 (29:28):
This total is just way too high.
Speaker 4 (29:31):
We're gonna go under forty seven and a half best
bet for this week's bet on it.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
Love it that bo's even better for a teaser spot.
And I just gotta figure out if I could use
Marco Steelers for that spot, because I was gonna use
them for my barking dogs, and then they dropped down
to two and a half, So somebody agreed with me there, Marco.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
Before you give me.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Your best bet, give me a little sneak peak about
this Steelers team. Do you think Mason Rudolph is comparable
to Aaron Rodgers?
Speaker 4 (29:58):
Right?
Speaker 2 (29:58):
Obviously the market saying, hey, three and a half was
too many points. I just want a little insight before
you tell me what's going on over at wager talk
dot com.
Speaker 3 (30:06):
Oh, Kelly, the thing of it is is Aaron Rodgers,
you know, the old Aaron Rodgers. And I don't mean
old is in right now, old Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, he's
a better, obviously better quarterback than Mason Rudolph. But if
you look at the last game, the Charger game, the
complete pitcher of that game, and really the first half
of the Cincinnati game last week before Aaron Rodgers left
(30:27):
the game, he really wasn't that good, okay, And he
doesn't have a lot of mobility. And I'm glad, I
mean don't. I'm not glad that he's hurt, but I'm
glad that Mason Rudolph's getting a chance. If you remember
last year when he came in for the final three
games of the season, he won those three games, got
(30:47):
the Steelers into the playoffs once again. And the Steelers
or no, that was two years ago, excuse me? Did
he got them into the playoffs? He is the guy
that the locker room okay, and they're gonna play hard
for him. And when you saw him come out Sunday
for the second half, when he came onto the field,
(31:08):
the crowd went nuts when he got onto the field
and you saw the team respond to him. I think
they're gonna be just fine this week and going to Chicago,
the cardiac kids who keep coming from behind. Yeah, Kelly,
that teaser looks really intriguing on Sunday with the Steelers. Oh,
(31:29):
I guess it's my turn to talk.
Speaker 1 (31:30):
It's my turn to keep talking.
Speaker 3 (31:32):
All right.
Speaker 2 (31:32):
No, No, I didn't ask you about your best bet yet
because you're going with another team. Total First, let everybody
know what they've got going on.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
Over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
We've still got the Weekend Warrior Package available, but we've
got little something extra for our viewers.
Speaker 3 (31:46):
Yeah, the Weekend Warrior Package has been phenomenal. Everybody loves
that you get all of the play Saturday and Sunday
in football, and if you have a Monday night play,
you're gonna get that free. But why not get everything
if you'll love the football? Right now, We've got a
deal through the Super Bowl and this is for any capper.
You can get all of our plays college and pro
(32:07):
includes the five percent plays through the Super Bowl for
three seventy nine, Kelly, I will have a five percent
this week. We hit our five percent last week with
the Seattle Seahawks. We're now thirty seven and sixteen with
those five percents since February of twenty twenty four. I
don't have a bunch of them, but when we have them,
we win them. And speaking of winning, we've been on
(32:29):
a tear last three weeks. Twenty days, last twenty days,
we are thirty two and fourteen for our clients for
a profit of forty six hundred and sixty eight dollars.
Join us myself, Yanni, all of the cappers, pick your
favorite cappers, jump on board. You'll never miss a play
from us. And next week with Thanksgiving, there's football every day.
(32:53):
You don't want to miss out on all of the action.
And speaking of action, let's get to that best bet.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. You know. I
actually had somebody in the comments section of the last
week said I don't like team totals. I he replied
that it's okay. Do you like money because we've won
both of them without the sweat. So if it ain't broke,
(33:16):
don't fix it. I'm coming back with another team. Total
jump on board. Everybody is if it ain't broke, don't
fix it. I'm going with who we had two weeks
ago and it was the Detroit Lions, and we're taking
them over thirty and a half points. Why, we know
what Dan Campbell does after a loss. He puts the
pedal to the medal and he's got his team rolling.
(33:39):
And again, Dan, uh, you look at what they've done. Yeah,
four of the last five games they've been held to
twenty four points or less. That's not good, right, No,
but that was against Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Philadelphia.
In the Philadelphia game, not only are they going against
(33:59):
you know, defense, they were aided by weather conditions in
Philadelphia last Sunday night. It was very windy there. The
Giants defense not anywhere near any of those defenses. They're
gonna be able to move the football. Plus they're playing
at home, indoors, on the fast track, perfect conditions. You
(34:19):
know what's gonna happen. And yeah, Dan Campbell took a
lot of heat last week because he was, you know, stubborn.
He does what Dan Campbell does. It's fourth down. I'm
not I'm not kicking a field goal. I'm going for
it no matter where we're at on the field, and
it backfired on him. So he's got to prove a
(34:40):
point this week. He'll continue to do it. He'll convert
this week against this defense. Give me this one over
the total. I see thirty seven or more points coming
from the Lions this week. Let's take that over thirty
and a half.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
All right, hopelling they can get the outright win for
me for survivor.
Speaker 1 (35:00):
Gonna see, I'm a little nervous. I'm a little nervous.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
After VR said the wise guys took the points there
with the Giants. Speaking of wise guys, they're probably gonna
be the only ones betting this team because the tire
betting public wants nothing to do with their beloved Kansas
City Chiefs, especially not laying three and a half here
after back to back road losses at Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (35:21):
And Denver Indianapolis. They're coming off a bye week.
Speaker 2 (35:25):
Prior to that, they probably should have lost to Atlanta
but got the win. I know Chiefs are a little
banged up, Isaiah Pacheco still questionable to return this week
after he missed last week.
Speaker 1 (35:36):
The offense is struggling.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
Everybody loves the under because the last five games have
stayed under the total. But I will say Patrick Mahomes
and Travis Kelce have been on a tear. At least
somebody over there can catch the balls, nineteen of them,
and if you guys like player props, he has now
gone over in seven straight games. I think the Colts
(35:58):
team is one of the those fraudulent teams I was
talking about on Twitter as well, probably fourth or fifth
on the list. And that's because every once in a
while we see this flash of Daniel Jones and who
he was when he played for the Giants.
Speaker 1 (36:11):
Right.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
He threw three interceptions against the Steelers. He got sack
seven times against the Falcons. I don't really want to
take it away from what the Colts have accomplished, but
the stock on Kansas City has fallen too far, and
that is my overall problem here. Our good friend Chris
Andrews tweeted Marco yesterday that every single talking head on
ESPN could not figure out why the Colts were not
(36:34):
favored over the Chiefs. Well, VR I will tell you
a little bit of something about power ratings here.
Speaker 1 (36:39):
You guys really want to hear another rant.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
So I'm gonna lay the three and a half here
and a bilow spot on Kansas City. It looks so
easy to bet against them for a third straight week
and take the Colts, but I'm not gonna do it.
And that'll do it for the show. Let's hope that
these best bets on my end can turn things around
from Marco myself. Let's get that recap graphic up. We'll
(37:03):
see you guys tuesday for go ahead.
Speaker 4 (37:05):
R hay Cy's two and a half points better on
a neutral are we go at least?
Speaker 2 (37:10):
And we all know that good home field advantage and arrowhead.
Those guys are still pretty faithful, even though they may
think the world is crashing around them.
Speaker 1 (37:19):
They're gonna be just fine this week. I'll do like
the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (37:22):
And if you guys like bet on a jump in
the comments section, give us a little bit of love.
And if you're looking for that mega show with college football,
it's right here. And of course Marco standalone segment of
the Deli till next week.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
Let's bet on it
NFL Week twelve is right around the corner.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
We're gonna get you ready with all those barking dogs
those primetime games. Of course, we're gonna get the early
steam report from VR and see if we've got a
sandwich or a trap game this week. Best bets. I've
got to turn it around on this week's beat on
It Monday when I did the script, Buffalo is a
(00:36):
three and a half point favorite.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Now they're up to six and a lot.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Of spots there on the Odds logic screen at Houston
total forty three and a half. But before we get
into it, we gotta bring in the guys. We've got
Marco dangel there in the middle, We've got Yanni the
Greek in the third chair, and we're gonna keep it rolling.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
You guys have been red hot.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
My best bets have been the Achilles heel of the show,
as the comments section likes to tell me. But we're
gonna turn it around right here by telling you guys
that I know Buffalo got back in the win cal
him against said best bet of the Bucks last week,
and Houston hey back to back divisional game winners versus
(01:14):
the Jags and the Titans, all with a little guy
named Davis Mills.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
No.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
CJ.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Stroud for Thursday Night Football was already announced this morning,
and I think that's probably why we saw this line
come up since Monday. But as Davis Mill has really
been that bad, seven and twenty six yards, sixty percent completions,
three touchdowns, one interception, Okay, fine, he hasn't been that good.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
But you know who has been really good? Defense?
Speaker 2 (01:39):
That's right, the Texans number one in EPA per play allowed,
number three and success rate number two and passing success
rate and number four in EPA per rush attempt. You're
gonna give me six points with that defense at home
on a short week, I'm gonna take it. Next up,
we've got the team that scorned me, and VR is
going to tell you Night Football whether the Buccaneers plus
(02:03):
six and a half at the La Rams forty nine
and a half is worth.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
A look yet.
Speaker 4 (02:08):
Disclaimer, I have not gotten to the window with this game.
But seven and four on the TV bet in the
NFL coming into this week twenty twelve and one on
bet on it, that's sixty three percent combined with college
football bet on it forty eight twenty and one, So
that's over seventy percent. So far, so good. Let's keep
(02:30):
it going. Not going to mess with the side yet
because I have a strong lean, but I need some
confirmation to get to the window done real good with
these primetime games. Don't want to paint myself into a corner.
But let's look at this total where I think we
got some value on the under because I think it's
inflated up at forty.
Speaker 5 (02:47):
Nine and a half and we haven't seen any movement.
That's what I like.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
You're not seeing that even the wise guys getting out
ahead of the public who will be betting this game over,
they haven't gotten out ahead of it. Where usually that's
what you see on the primetime games, where we'd wake
up and look at at least a fifty and a
half because they expect the market to move in that direction.
But here's the recency bias that we can take advantage of.
(03:11):
You have Tampa Bay who's coming in have been scored
thirty two, twenty three, twenty three. You have the Rams
who come in scoring twenty one, forty two, thirty four,
thirty five, a lot of points, a lot of points.
Speaker 5 (03:27):
But when you look at.
Speaker 4 (03:28):
The side of Tampa, this is the highest total they've
had the entire season.
Speaker 5 (03:34):
No total this high for Tampa Bay.
Speaker 4 (03:37):
And then when you look at the Rams, only twice
in their last ten games they have they had a
total that has been this high. And they're actually have
had one game more to the under than over their
last ten. In fact, only four overs in their last
ten games, So both are looking at a much higher
(03:57):
total than usual. Why because of that recency bias. But
let's look at the matchup real quickly. Tampa Bay looks
like they gave up a lot of points of late,
but they went up against some very powerful offenses. More importantly,
last week, they went up against the number one offense
in Buffalo, who they allowed forty four points to. That's
not going to be the same offense they're facing this
(04:18):
week against the Rams top ten offense, but nothing compared
to the number one offense of Buffalo, so it'll be
almost like slow motion again compared to last week. And
then on the Rams side, you're looking at the best
defense in the NFL efficiency wise, so a Tampa offense
that's very respectable top ten considering they had the third
(04:39):
toughest strength of schedule in the NFL. But they're really
going to get tested this week against the Rams, who've
also had a top ten strength of schedule and are
number one inefficiency, So I don't think Tampa's going to
have an easy go of it like they've had over
the last four or five weeks. With that said, gonna
(05:00):
go under forty nine and a half. Again, I thought
we'd get even higher number, thought that the Sharps would
go over. That's not the case, So we'll go forty
nine and a half.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
I like it all right.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Monday Night Football for Marco DiAngelo my NFC South prediction
winner that was the Carolina Panthers. Yeah, they're just kind
of frustrating at times, also been plagued by the injury bug.
Speaking the injury bug, the Niners who they're facing, and
finally starting to get healthy. And I think we can
all agree that brock Party is better than MATC.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Jones.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
Marco, this line is interesting, just sitting there six and
a half as the favorite there for San Francisco.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Forty eight and a half is the total.
Speaker 2 (05:44):
Make this one make a little bit of sense because
I've got to thinking that I would have expected more
of a seven and a half point favorite for the Niners.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
So this one looks like it's begging for San fran money.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
Yeah, on the straight play. Yeah, But I'm not going
that way, Kelly. I'm going to go like VR. I'm
looking at the total and I'm looking at the under
in this one. In the similarities from the game the
VR just did in this one, they're the same because
it's recency bias. If you look at this total of
forty eight and a half and you look at last
(06:17):
week's games, Carolina won thirty to twenty seven, fifty seven points,
and then San Francisco won forty one to twenty two.
They scored sixty three points. What's the public going to
do on a standalone game on a Monday night. They're
gonna bet the over, and that's not the way to
go here. I'm looking at the under because if you
(06:37):
dig deeper and you look at San Francisco last week,
they put up forty one points with just two hundred
and eighty one yards of offense. What they did in
that game They had a ninety nine yard kick return
to start the game and then they had three Arizona turnovers.
That did Arizona in Carolina. If you look at their game,
(07:00):
they put up thirty, but they caught an Atlanta team
that was in a horrible scheduling spot. Atlanta played the
week before overseas, they didn't take their bye week afterwards.
That is bad. We saw earlier this season when Denver
did that, and we know how good the Denver defense is.
(07:20):
They gave up thirty one to thirty one or thirty
two points to the Giants that week in that miraculous
comeback game. So it's a situation where we're getting an
overreaction to one game. Go back to the four previous
games for Carolina. They scored seven, sixteen, nine, and thirteen
(07:43):
points in their four games before last week's explosion. Bryce
Young four hundred and nineteen yards last week passing the football.
You know what he had in his three previous games
combined three hundred and thirty four. No, I'm not gonna
go with the over here, and if I'm in San Francisco,
we know the problem with the forty nine ers. It's
(08:06):
their defense, and it's because of all the injuries they've
suffered on that side of the football this year. Yes,
they're getting healthier on the offensive side, but the defensive
side is still vulnerable. So what does that mean, you
want to keep the defense off the field. How do
you keep the defense off the field. You run the football.
And when you got a running back named Christian McCaffrey,
(08:28):
you're gonna hand him the ball in this one. And
he's gonna be a little pumped up for this game
because he's facing his former teammates. Let's go ahead and
take under forty eight and a half. Now, I normally
I tell you when I give you a total, act
on this one. Now, because it's gonna move weight on
this one. There's only one way the public's gonna bet
this game. They're gonna bet it over. We'll get value
(08:49):
closer to game time. I'm taking under the total, but
for the official rating for the show, it's forty eight
and a half right now, Okay.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
On Sundays and Sunday VR is going to join me
as I fill in for Aero Epstein. On Last Call,
we do a little segment called the steam Room an
hour up until kickoff, VIR goes through the entire NFL
slate with you guys. Premium subscribers are always invited, and
of course, wager Talk insiders will be invited this week
(09:18):
to join wager Talk Insiders and wt Dot Buzz backslash Insiders.
If you give them the early week preview of what
the wise guys are playing.
Speaker 4 (09:26):
Oh yeah, we're gonna zero in on those NFL games
that I've seen multiple groups attack and more importantly, after
the initial hit on the look ahead lines and join
me on Sunday hour before kickoff. We'll go through all
the NFL games as much as time permits. Signed totals
(09:47):
player props there to answer all your questions. We'll put
those plus EB teasers together towards the end of the show,
and again you'll get the live stuff also. Now here's
some of the moves for some. They start off two
forty three New York Jets j e ts took the
two touchdowns and a hook at fourteen and a half.
(10:07):
Also took out the fourteens against Baltimore New York Giants
at eleven and a half. You saw them post that
number really high compared to that look ahead They took
that down and that's why you're looking at ten and
a half against Detroit. So the New York parlay Jets
and Giants, New England Patriots game two forty seven, no
surprise getting out ahead of the market. That'll be heavily
(10:29):
one sided from the public as well. The look ahead
was four and a half. They moved it to five
immediately on. The look ahead went to five and a half,
went to six, six and a half. That's why you're
looking at a touchdown now two forty nine Seattle minus
twelve and a half and thirteen against Tennessee.
Speaker 5 (10:45):
They also steamed that.
Speaker 4 (10:46):
One under, So usually the correlation is you're gonna cover thirteen,
probably gonna go over a low total of forty two.
Not the case here. Don't expect much scoring from Tennessee.
That total got hit at forty two, which was the
look ahead. Forty two and a half got hit it
forty one under as well, and then forty and a
half earlier this morning to sixty New Orleans the Saints
(11:09):
plus three and a half, three two and a half,
one one and a half, all because of Penix. So
quickly the books were adjusting based on that news. But
when it got to its high as Saints minus two,
that's when you saw some take back on Atlanta. So
wanted to put that game in there because it's getten
a lot of volume already, and you saw that that
(11:32):
flip of the favorite that happened very quickly because of
the penis injury. And finally to sixty six San Francisco
minus the five and a half, minus the six and
a half and then over forty five and a half
and forty six look ahead forty seven, forty seven and
a half and forty eight.
Speaker 5 (11:48):
So they light that over in the Niners. It's going
to do it. For this week's steam report, join me
Sunday morning for last Coal and then steam Room right after.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
And because I've been bringing up the bottom of the
barrel in terms of best bets, the marking Dog segment
has been our best segment all season long. Here on
the show, Marco Dandel, I'm gonna let you go first.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
This is the dog I was looking at as well.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
There's a few around that field goal underdog that are
rather enticing this week.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Tell me why you like the Cleveland Browns well, Kelly.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
A couple of weeks ago, we got comments in the
YouTube channel asking if I was off my meds, and
they might ask again because we're even looking at this
game Cleveland and the Raiders, you know, and I equate
this game to being like trying to decide whether you
want to be punched in the face or kicked in
the balls. Neither one's gonna be pleasant. But somebody's got
(12:46):
to win this game. And this is what I'm looking at. Yes,
Shador Sanders makes his NFL debut this week as a starter.
We saw him last week and oh god, was it awful.
And that's what people are going to react to, is
because when he did come into the game last week,
it was ugly. But here's the thing. He came into
(13:07):
the game coll didn't get the first string snaps last week,
was running the game plan that was designed for Dylan Gabriel,
not him. Now he's gonna have had a week of snaps,
gonna have a game plan that's prepared Taylor made to
what strengths he has, and we'll find out if he
has any. And he's gonna be going against a Raider
(13:27):
team that is a complete dumpster fire. It has been
a train wreck of a season for the Raiders. The
defense is not playing well, the offense is playing pitiful.
Geno Smith is reverted back to New York Jet Gino Smith.
They can't score, and they're coming off of back to
back nationally televised games. If you remember two weeks ago,
(13:50):
they played division rival Denver on Thursday night football, big
game for them. They put up good effort and they
only lost by three, and then they had to follow
that up with another the primetime game on Monday night,
in which, you know, let's be honest, you know, they
looked horrible against Dallas and they couldn't move the football
against the Dallas defense that everybody moves the football against.
(14:14):
So the one consistent factor with the Browns all year
has been that defense. How are the Raiders going to
move the football against the Cleveland brown defense?
Speaker 1 (14:26):
They're not.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
And you hear me say it all the time. Give
me the better defense getting points. That's where I'm gonna
line up, and the Raiders should not be a three
and a half point favorite against anybody, even a Shador
Sanders led Browns team. I'm gonna go ahead take the
Cleveland Browns as my barking dog. It's gonna be ugly
to watch sixteenth thirteen equivalent to paint dry, watching paint dry,
(14:51):
paint dry.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
Yeah, that's uh, it's better than what we saw on
Monday night from the Raiders. The Raiders were just completely abysmal.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
Gino Smith just got decimated by the Dallas defense v R.
I'm gonna talk about Dallas here in a minute, but
we're gonna go to you first, because your marking dog
is pretty sizable here, and maybe you think that people
should be a little nervous playing against them here in Survivor.
Speaker 5 (15:15):
Yeh.
Speaker 4 (15:16):
And I'm fading the wise guys because earlier in that'
steme report you heard New England minus four and a half,
minus five, then the five, five and a half, six,
six and a half. I've bet it at plus eight
and a half. I sent it out to subscribers at
plus eight and a half on Cincinnati because that's just.
Speaker 5 (15:34):
Way too many points.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
And the difference between what wise guys bet and what
the number is now are two completely different games. So
I'm not afraid of them having a ticket of New
England minus four and a half, five and a half
or even six in their pockets. We're up over a touchdown.
That's key here with Cincinnati. I was surprised, why is
it that high? But then I took a look at
the ESPN power ratings, and here's what I see their
(15:57):
power rankings. Forgive me, they're tough Rams Philly, New England,
Indianapolis and Denver.
Speaker 5 (16:07):
That's their top five. So what do you see there?
Top records in the league?
Speaker 4 (16:13):
Right, everyone who's sitting at the top of the division
at seven and at eight and two is.
Speaker 5 (16:19):
In their top power rankings.
Speaker 4 (16:21):
Right, nothing could be further from the truth. They got
one right, They got one right. That was the La
Rams are the highest power rated team right now on
my power ratings as well, overtaking Detroit who was number
one last week at my numbers, but behind the Rams
or Detroit who.
Speaker 5 (16:41):
Dropped it a second slot. KC, Yes five and five.
Speaker 4 (16:45):
KC. The power rankings show who would be favored, and
I'm telling you right now, only one or two teams
would be favored over Kansas City on a neutral Seattle
number four, Buffalo number five power rating wise. And that's
why we're able to take advantage of New England because
they have New England top three.
Speaker 5 (17:05):
I have New England.
Speaker 4 (17:06):
They just cracked my face. They're barely fifteenth. They're fourteenth
power rating wise, the fourteenth best team, so they'd beat
dogs to thirteen other teams even sitting at that record,
and why they've had the thirty second toughest strength of schedule,
so they've had the easiest schedule in all of the NFL,
(17:27):
and yet they're only fifteenth most efficient offense, twelfth most
efficient defense. Like, they're barely in the top half of
the NFL with the very easiest schedule. They've gotten wins,
that's the bottom line, but they're not that good as
their rankings show, power rating wise on sites like ESPN.
Speaker 5 (17:51):
Look at Cincinnati.
Speaker 4 (17:52):
Now they're facing a Cincinnati team had a much tougher
strength of schedule. Offensively more efficient, they're top fifteen defense.
Speaker 5 (18:01):
That's where they're week.
Speaker 4 (18:02):
But fortunately they're going up against a week offense fifteenth
in New England who had a thirty second strength of schedule.
See how that all fits together. It'll be easier for
Cincinnati this week than off Late. Again, New England's been
winning games and outperforming the betting market. That was impressive.
We talked about that a few weeks ago. But like
(18:22):
all efficient markets, they correct itself. And what has happened
to New England over the last three weeks. They've won
three games, but they've only covered one of those. That's
the reflection of the market doing exactly what it's supposed
to do. And now they're playing a Cincinnati team that's
coming in having underperformed three straight games. That's why they're
getting more than a touchdown now. In those three games
(18:43):
that they lost, they were never getting more than five
and a half points. In fact, they were favored in
two of those. They're now an eight and a half
point dog. Give me Cincinnati plus the points. I'm not
worried about injuries and stuff like that. I'll take the
home team here. New England overrated over and this number
is just way too high.
Speaker 2 (19:03):
I don't know VR if the comment section of the
show is anything like my.
Speaker 5 (19:09):
Bring it please, please please, because right now I get
it every week.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
Hands so mad at me that I turned around and
picked a fight with Bears fans, and I'm like, I'm
a Broncos fan.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
I think they're overrated as well.
Speaker 4 (19:21):
Hell, I have no bias. I get it every week
in the Dogs. And here here's what I am with
the dogs in the NFL, with these ugly dogs. Eight
two and one eighty percent.
Speaker 5 (19:31):
With these ugly dogs.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
And if you didn't like that dog, here I'll give you.
I'll give you the Vegas race right here. Formula one
is in Vegas this week. I'll give you a plus
four to fifty. The winner of the race is going
to be where'd he go?
Speaker 5 (19:44):
George Russell? George Russell plus.
Speaker 4 (19:46):
Four fifty to win the Formula one race here in
Las Vegas.
Speaker 5 (19:51):
And then bet Kimmy.
Speaker 4 (19:53):
K I am I that's the last name at plus
two hundred to be on the podium to finish top three.
And finally, the the team with the most points and
also the team the winning constructor, that's a prompt will
be Mercedes AMG. Mercedes AMG will have the most points
at plus one fifty and they will be the winning
constructor at plus three hundred. So you got it, plus
(20:14):
four fifty, plus two hundred, plus three hundred and plus
one fifty. If that's not enough barking dogs for you,
what could I do?
Speaker 5 (20:22):
What could I do? Jicksell?
Speaker 1 (20:23):
I get it.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
The marking dog segment has been my saving grace this year.
Got it done last week with Carolina. They knocked talkings
out of a ton of people in survivor pools. And
I think no one's probably gonna use the Eagles this weekend.
Hopefully they're gonna save it for Black Friday. Speaking of
Black Friday, we're gonna be doing a Thanksgiving and Black
Friday Show.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
We're gonna do it early in the week. If you
are an.
Speaker 2 (20:45):
Insider WT Dot buzz backslash Insiders to join you, guys
are gonna get early access to that one Tuesday afternoon.
We'll call it Tuesday Afternoon is you'll get all four
games from us for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, and then
of course same time, same place next Wednesday for the
Sunday games as well as Monday Night Football.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
Now I'm taking the Dallas.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Cowboys here, plus the field goal and the hook.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
And I know the Eagles have won and covered their.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
Last four games, including last week that sleepy.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
Home win over the Lions.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
Dallas needed that bye week so badly, and then they
came out with an impressive road win over Well. I
know it's still the Raiders, but that defense showed up
and has looked significantly better since Week seven. Number nineteen
in EPA per play, Number fifteen in EPA per drop back.
Speaker 1 (21:36):
Now with a new guy named Quinnon Williams there as
a defensive tackle.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
He had one and a half sacks last week, and
I think that he has motivated this defensive line, which
bodes well with the Eagles offensive line, who is going
to be without Lane Johnson for this game, and I
think that people don't recognize how a veteran offensive lineman
can affect the yes. I also know Dallas is on
(22:02):
a short week and hopefully Ceedee Lamb and George Piggins
actually follow team rules so they can play the first
series of this game. But I do think that I'm
going to take the better defense plus the points here.
Remember Dallas had held Ashon Johns to seven roushing yards
on six carries on Monday Night.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
Maybe they can do the same for Saquon on Sunday.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
Give me the Cowboys plus three and a half as
my barking dog.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
For NFL Week twelve.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Marco DiAngelo, your standalone segment is called the Deli. We've
been doing it for years on the show, and you
decided with our production team, Hey, I'm gonna make this
bigger because there's so many teams that fit into these situations,
whether it's college football or NFL, and we want to
give them to our audience for free here on the
Wager Talking YouTube channel.
Speaker 1 (22:52):
Tell everybody how the Deli's been doing. I'll give you
guys a hind It's been really good.
Speaker 3 (22:57):
Well, Delli, we've had eight winning weeks only to lose
weeks one break even week. That's pretty good run. That's
converted to thirty five and eighteen for the season. We
give five games on the show each week and that'll
come out on Thursday and then of course be part
of the bet on It Mega Show as well. So
check out the Deli and I love you guys jumping
(23:20):
into the comments section. We get a lot of interaction
into comments, a lot of people. I like to hear
where everybody is watching from, see where our audience base is,
and we've had people watching from other countries and everything else.
It's really cool. So tune in Thursday for that and
this week for the Deli, we're looking at a track
(23:43):
trap and that trap game is going to be the
Arizona Jacksonville game. This is gonna be hard to swallow
off of last week's results, but guys, we know the
old saying nobody is as good as their best game.
Enter the Jacksonville Jaguars who beat the Chargers. Who was
(24:04):
everybody's darling after they took care of the Steelers on
Sunday Night Football. They beat them thirty five to six. Oh,
what's the second part of the saying nobody is as
bad as their worst game. Enter the Arizona Cardinals, who
lost last week forty one to twenty two to the
forty nine Ers. Now, I mentioned in that game that
(24:26):
the forty nine er game was very misleading, as the
forty nine Ers had all those points, forty one points
with just two hundred and eighty one yards of offense.
Why well, we told you that kick return and three
Arizona turnovers. Guess what Jacoby Burssett had last year. Last
(24:46):
week he led that team to four hundred and eighty
eight yards of offense in defeat. I look for them
to have a big game this week. And before you
start jumping up and down about Jacksonville and how they
demolished the Chargers, Trevor Lawrence had just one hundred and
fifty three yards passing last week. Yeah, granted, they had
(25:07):
a big lead most of the games, so they were
running the football, But what about the week before you
only had one hundred and nineteen yards. I cannot fall
for Jacksonville as a road favorite. They're in the old
fat and sassy alert mode after that win last week.
This will be the third road game in four weeks
(25:28):
for Jacksonville. But it gets worse if you go back
before the four weeks they had their bye week. What
did they have before the bye week? They played over
in London. Think about this. In a matter of six weeks,
they had four games where they traveled. They traveled to London,
then they came back here. They played the Raiders here
(25:53):
in Vegas, went back home, played Houston. Then they also
went and played another road game. Now coming here to Arizona,
that is a lot of traveling miles and you're crossing
a lot of time zones coming from Florida. As Kelly
knows that she travels a lot of Florida and traveling
cross country. This is gonna take its tear on this team.
(26:16):
We've got the situation with the travel, We've got the
situation with Fat and Sassy off that big win, and
we got an Arizona team that wasn't as bad as
the score looked last week. I'm gonna go ahead and
take Arizona. I think this is a spot for them
to get a win. I'm calling it Arizona twenty four twenty.
I know it's hard to swallow, but some of those
(26:38):
the harder. The ticket to place the bet sometimes are
the easiest to cash.
Speaker 2 (26:44):
Marco, I think I'm just gonna have to tease that team,
and teasers been working out.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
Really well, and it just it's not as hard to swallow.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
When you're getting touchdown there with the Arizona Cardinals. Let's
get into those best bets and I'm hoping to give
you guys a winner this week, but we're gonna let
VR go first. He's got a nice total for you
guys in that exact same game, yep.
Speaker 5 (27:06):
And my NFL package is already up.
Speaker 4 (27:09):
I'm gonna do just like I did last Sunday and
the Sunday before that, just tie up the strongest plays
on that board for Sunday, which will be all the
four percent plays. Last week, the four percent went five
and one, so two of those are already in there.
I know you're at wondering where's the college football card.
It's not up there yet because I'm firing a five
(27:29):
percent big move in college football this week. It's only
the fifth this season, so this is the thirteenth week
of college football. This will only be the fifth time
I'm firing a five percent big move in college football.
Up over one hundred and thirty units, and sitting at
number one, that package will be up. I'm just waiting
to see when's the best time to get down on
that big bet. Now here's our best bet as of
(27:52):
today in the NFL. We're gonna look at the Jacksonville
Arizona total and take advantage of some recency bias there.
It looks like Arizona's giving up a lot of points
of late, but if you look at the offenses they
faced in efficiency, they played the number five, number nine,
number four, number three, and number.
Speaker 5 (28:12):
Thirteenth most efficient offenses.
Speaker 4 (28:14):
Okay, now they're going up against Jacksonville that's out of
the top fifteen and didn't have I mean, they had
a decent strength of schedule, but they're out of the
top fifteen, so they're gonna have an easier go of it.
So that defense that is low terrific will have an
easier offense to contend with this week. Same thing with
Jacksonville on their side of the ball, which has been
(28:37):
the weaker side defense, they're not going to have as
difficult a time this week because they're facing offense that's
out of the top fifteen on the Arizona side as well.
So I look for both defenses to perform better because
they're going up against much weaker offenses. And then when
you look at the offensive side of the ball again,
(29:00):
I don't think Jacksonville is gonna have the success they've
had of late, like they did against the Chargers Houston
and Vegas.
Speaker 5 (29:08):
When you dig into those box scores, you'll see.
Speaker 4 (29:11):
Some horrific turnover differential and I don't think they'll be
able to sustain that. So I think the Jacksonville Jaguars
will have trouble cracking seventeen points this week against Arizona,
and I really don't think Arizona's gonna be able to
crack much more than twenty against them.
Speaker 5 (29:28):
This total is just way too high.
Speaker 4 (29:31):
We're gonna go under forty seven and a half best
bet for this week's bet on it.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
Love it that bo's even better for a teaser spot.
And I just gotta figure out if I could use
Marco Steelers for that spot, because I was gonna use
them for my barking dogs, and then they dropped down
to two and a half, So somebody agreed with me there, Marco.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
Before you give me.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Your best bet, give me a little sneak peak about
this Steelers team. Do you think Mason Rudolph is comparable
to Aaron Rodgers?
Speaker 4 (29:58):
Right?
Speaker 2 (29:58):
Obviously the market saying, hey, three and a half was
too many points. I just want a little insight before
you tell me what's going on over at wager talk
dot com.
Speaker 3 (30:06):
Oh, Kelly, the thing of it is is Aaron Rodgers,
you know, the old Aaron Rodgers. And I don't mean
old is in right now, old Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, he's
a better, obviously better quarterback than Mason Rudolph. But if
you look at the last game, the Charger game, the
complete pitcher of that game, and really the first half
of the Cincinnati game last week before Aaron Rodgers left
(30:27):
the game, he really wasn't that good, okay, And he
doesn't have a lot of mobility. And I'm glad, I
mean don't. I'm not glad that he's hurt, but I'm
glad that Mason Rudolph's getting a chance. If you remember
last year when he came in for the final three
games of the season, he won those three games, got
(30:47):
the Steelers into the playoffs once again. And the Steelers
or no, that was two years ago, excuse me? Did
he got them into the playoffs? He is the guy
that the locker room okay, and they're gonna play hard
for him. And when you saw him come out Sunday
for the second half, when he came onto the field,
(31:08):
the crowd went nuts when he got onto the field
and you saw the team respond to him. I think
they're gonna be just fine this week and going to Chicago,
the cardiac kids who keep coming from behind. Yeah, Kelly,
that teaser looks really intriguing on Sunday with the Steelers. Oh,
(31:29):
I guess it's my turn to talk.
Speaker 1 (31:30):
It's my turn to keep talking.
Speaker 3 (31:32):
All right.
Speaker 2 (31:32):
No, No, I didn't ask you about your best bet yet
because you're going with another team. Total First, let everybody
know what they've got going on.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
Over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
We've still got the Weekend Warrior Package available, but we've
got little something extra for our viewers.
Speaker 3 (31:46):
Yeah, the Weekend Warrior Package has been phenomenal. Everybody loves
that you get all of the play Saturday and Sunday
in football, and if you have a Monday night play,
you're gonna get that free. But why not get everything
if you'll love the football? Right now, We've got a
deal through the Super Bowl and this is for any capper.
You can get all of our plays college and pro
(32:07):
includes the five percent plays through the Super Bowl for
three seventy nine, Kelly, I will have a five percent
this week. We hit our five percent last week with
the Seattle Seahawks. We're now thirty seven and sixteen with
those five percents since February of twenty twenty four. I
don't have a bunch of them, but when we have them,
we win them. And speaking of winning, we've been on
(32:29):
a tear last three weeks. Twenty days, last twenty days,
we are thirty two and fourteen for our clients for
a profit of forty six hundred and sixty eight dollars.
Join us myself, Yanni, all of the cappers, pick your
favorite cappers, jump on board. You'll never miss a play
from us. And next week with Thanksgiving, there's football every day.
(32:53):
You don't want to miss out on all of the action.
And speaking of action, let's get to that best bet.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. You know. I
actually had somebody in the comments section of the last
week said I don't like team totals. I he replied
that it's okay. Do you like money because we've won
both of them without the sweat. So if it ain't broke,
(33:16):
don't fix it. I'm coming back with another team. Total
jump on board. Everybody is if it ain't broke, don't
fix it. I'm going with who we had two weeks
ago and it was the Detroit Lions, and we're taking
them over thirty and a half points. Why, we know
what Dan Campbell does after a loss. He puts the
pedal to the medal and he's got his team rolling.
(33:39):
And again, Dan, uh, you look at what they've done. Yeah,
four of the last five games they've been held to
twenty four points or less. That's not good, right, No,
but that was against Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Philadelphia.
In the Philadelphia game, not only are they going against
(33:59):
you know, defense, they were aided by weather conditions in
Philadelphia last Sunday night. It was very windy there. The
Giants defense not anywhere near any of those defenses. They're
gonna be able to move the football. Plus they're playing
at home, indoors, on the fast track, perfect conditions. You
(34:19):
know what's gonna happen. And yeah, Dan Campbell took a
lot of heat last week because he was, you know, stubborn.
He does what Dan Campbell does. It's fourth down. I'm
not I'm not kicking a field goal. I'm going for
it no matter where we're at on the field, and
it backfired on him. So he's got to prove a
(34:40):
point this week. He'll continue to do it. He'll convert
this week against this defense. Give me this one over
the total. I see thirty seven or more points coming
from the Lions this week. Let's take that over thirty
and a half.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
All right, hopelling they can get the outright win for
me for survivor.
Speaker 1 (35:00):
Gonna see, I'm a little nervous. I'm a little nervous.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
After VR said the wise guys took the points there
with the Giants. Speaking of wise guys, they're probably gonna
be the only ones betting this team because the tire
betting public wants nothing to do with their beloved Kansas
City Chiefs, especially not laying three and a half here
after back to back road losses at Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (35:21):
And Denver Indianapolis. They're coming off a bye week.
Speaker 2 (35:25):
Prior to that, they probably should have lost to Atlanta
but got the win. I know Chiefs are a little
banged up, Isaiah Pacheco still questionable to return this week
after he missed last week.
Speaker 1 (35:36):
The offense is struggling.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
Everybody loves the under because the last five games have
stayed under the total. But I will say Patrick Mahomes
and Travis Kelce have been on a tear. At least
somebody over there can catch the balls, nineteen of them,
and if you guys like player props, he has now
gone over in seven straight games. I think the Colts
(35:58):
team is one of the those fraudulent teams I was
talking about on Twitter as well, probably fourth or fifth
on the list. And that's because every once in a
while we see this flash of Daniel Jones and who
he was when he played for the Giants.
Speaker 1 (36:11):
Right.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
He threw three interceptions against the Steelers. He got sack
seven times against the Falcons. I don't really want to
take it away from what the Colts have accomplished, but
the stock on Kansas City has fallen too far, and
that is my overall problem here. Our good friend Chris
Andrews tweeted Marco yesterday that every single talking head on
ESPN could not figure out why the Colts were not
(36:34):
favored over the Chiefs. Well, VR I will tell you
a little bit of something about power ratings here.
Speaker 1 (36:39):
You guys really want to hear another rant.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
So I'm gonna lay the three and a half here
and a bilow spot on Kansas City. It looks so
easy to bet against them for a third straight week
and take the Colts, but I'm not gonna do it.
And that'll do it for the show. Let's hope that
these best bets on my end can turn things around
from Marco myself. Let's get that recap graphic up. We'll
(37:03):
see you guys tuesday for go ahead.
Speaker 4 (37:05):
R hay Cy's two and a half points better on
a neutral are we go at least?
Speaker 2 (37:10):
And we all know that good home field advantage and arrowhead.
Those guys are still pretty faithful, even though they may
think the world is crashing around them.
Speaker 1 (37:19):
They're gonna be just fine this week. I'll do like
the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (37:22):
And if you guys like bet on a jump in
the comments section, give us a little bit of love.
And if you're looking for that mega show with college football,
it's right here. And of course Marco standalone segment of
the Deli till next week.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
Let's bet on it
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