November 25, 2025 • 30 mins
It’s a massive holiday slate and the Bet On It crew is here to break it all down! Kelly Stewart (aka KellyInVegas), Marco D'Angelo, and Gianni the Greek bring you a special Thanksgiving + Black Friday episode loaded with betting analysis, market angles, and their favorite plays of the week.
Time Stamps
00:00 Intro
00:55 Packers vs Lions
09:11 Thanksgiving Promo
10:14 Chiefs vs Cowboys
18:14 Bengals vs Ravens
24:44 Bears vs Eagles
Time Stamps
00:00 Intro
00:55 Packers vs Lions
09:11 Thanksgiving Promo
10:14 Chiefs vs Cowboys
18:14 Bengals vs Ravens
24:44 Bears vs Eagles
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thanksgiving is upon us.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Here on beat on It, we're gonna break down the
Thanksgiving trio as well as Black Friday up next on
bat on It.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
Welcome into bet on It.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Kelly Stewart here joined with Yanni the Greek and Marco
D'Angelo of wager Talk dot Com Quick Show Today a
couple of days before Thanksgiving, so we wanted to get
you guys some early information on the Thanksgiving and Black
Friday slate. If you guys are looking for the college
football edition to bet on It viaut Wednesday night on
the wager Talking YouTube channel, as well as the Sunday
(00:48):
and Monday night football games for the NFL. All right,
we're gonna get right into this, guys. I got my
Odds logic screen open and we're gonna go rotation order down.
Green Bay starts at one pm Eastern on Thanksgiving, taking
on Detroit. They are a two and a half point
underdog pretty much across the board total forty nine and VR.
(01:09):
I'm gonna let you go first.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
We're gonna do roundtable style kind of like we used to.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
Yeah, I don't want to paint myself into a corner
because I haven't gotten to the window with the Thanksgiving
games yet. I have released two NFL games for Sunday,
also a couple of college football, but still working on
these Thanksgiving games. Because the market's a little bit different.
You gotta remember each market, it depends on the participants
and when you get to a weekend like this where
(01:37):
there's a lot of people all from work, a lot
of primetime standalone TV games, betters are looking for action.
So there's gonna be a lot of public money overwhelming
the betting market, which should force a lot of line
moves that are not sharp money related. So it's a
very different read of line movement. Here's what we had
(01:57):
for this game. It opened minus three. That was to
look ahead N forty seven now two and a half.
That's a big movement considering the books should expect Detroit money.
They're a home team. Power rating wise, they're a little
above green Bay. I have Detroit as in the top five.
I have green Bay right outside of my top five.
(02:20):
Detroit's had the tougher strength of schedule. The defense for
green Bay has been their strength top five in the
NFL efficiency wise. They will get tested against the top
five offense this week, but it's on the defensive side
of the ball that Green Bay is going to have
a little bit easy go of it, meaning their offense
has been their weakness, because you gotta remember the last
(02:42):
three games that the Packers lost, they only allowed ten
points and they lost that game. They allowed sixteen points
and they lost that game, and they allowed thirteen points
and they lost those games. So three games that they
defense allowed less than sixteen points and the offense was
and able to get them a W. In two of
those games it was thirteen or last points they allowed
(03:05):
and still didn't get the W. So it's the offense
that's been struggling. Fortunately for them, they're going up against
a weaker defense than they have of late. In fact,
Detroit's not even in the top ten efficiency wise, but
again they have had a top ten strength of schedule
where it sits right now. If this was the game's
(03:28):
kicking off in an hour from now, I would be all.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
Over Green Bay.
Speaker 5 (03:31):
In a teaser.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
I would take them up the plus eight and a half.
Even though the total seems to be moving towards the over.
That's not a surprise because the recreational betters will be
betting this game over the total, so a lot of
the bettingston gets know that, especially a weekend like this,
they're gonna get out ahead of the market that's betting
from a position to strength. They go over forty seven,
(03:54):
This gets the fifty. By Thursday. They're in the driver's seat.
They have a nice middle, they have play CB ticket
in their pocket, they have, you know, a great position
they find themselves in. So don't conclude that the overs,
you know, a legit steam move. Follow that odds logic
screen and see if there's any resistance as the total
takes upwards past that forty nine, because I have it a.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
Little bit lower. I actually made my total forty seven,
forty seven and a half, but I'm respecting the money
move that's forced it up the forty nine. So that's
where I stand.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
I like Green Bay in a teaser right now up
to eight and a half and I lean under. But
the market is respecting the over money early on, so
I have to, you know, monitor the line and see
if I'm going to take any side, any position on
the total.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
Yeah, I'm with VR here.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
I tas the Packers with the Jets and the Patriots
Cardinals might still be an option for some of you,
but not for me, at least none of those minus
one ten teasers.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Marco D'Angelo before we started, VR said.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
I might be an idiot for liking Bay, and I said,
you're supposed to stay it out live on air.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
So that I can teet up to Mark and be
like Marco, is VR an idiot?
Speaker 5 (05:06):
Well, I'm not gonna call VR an idiot that I
can't disagree with the the teaser bit. I am going
to address, you know, the point that you made about
the initial move from three to two and a half.
Now we know when we see those look ahead lines,
that is before last week's games were played. So the
knee jerk reaction from watching last Sunday is the public
(05:29):
saw Green Bay take care of Minnesota, or I should
say JJ McCarthy took care of Minnesota. But they look
good in winning will Detroit. Although we cast our team total,
we needed over time to get that one home, and
I'll take it because I've lost plays, you know, in
bad fashion before, so I'll take the gifts sometimes. But
(05:51):
people are looking saying, hey, Detroit had to struggle with
the Giants and had to go to overtime. So I
think that's why you saw the initial tick go from
three to two and a half. Now, with that said,
I'm gonna bash myself for being an idiot. I was
so locked into the team total on Detroit last week
that you know, I saw it, but I ignored it.
(06:14):
That was as big of a sandwich game as you
could have for the Lions last week. Think about it.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
You're the.
Speaker 5 (06:22):
I know, but I was locked in on that. Oh
the over on the team total with Detroit, and I
felt because they played so badly on Sunday Night that
they wouldn't lay an egg. But think about it, Sunday
night football against the defending champs, Thursday, Thanksgiving Day against
green Bay, who embarrassed Dan Campbell on Opening Day. If
(06:45):
you remember they to the final score doesn't tell the
story of that game. Detroit was never in that game
against green Bay. And if you remember all the knee
jerk reactions after that game because Detroit could not move
the football, Yeah, I remember their.
Speaker 4 (07:02):
Phony, they're done.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
They lost their offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, this team sign Yeah.
Speaker 5 (07:07):
And what did Dan Campbell do? And that's why I
you know, I've locked into team totals on Campbell because
when he gets embarrassed, he's the bully on the block.
He has to go out and you know, and prove
his worth and what he do. He ran the score
up on the Bears the following week against his former
(07:27):
offensive coordinator. He was throwing the football in the fourth
quarter with a monster lead, put fifty two on the board.
That's why, you know, I picked these spots. You've got
to understand coaches, and you know, shout out to one
of our listeners, Kelly. If somebody a comments section, I
love all of you guys, but my god, you don't
like money. Somebody called me out for giving winners on
(07:50):
team totals, like, oh, some totals. I don't want to
I don't I don't want to.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
Hear about anything that anybody cares about betting. You have
to remember five years ago we were all betting Russian
table tennis and Mexican soccer matches that were probably fixed.
Speaker 5 (08:07):
Give me a break, Kelly, I had you betting WNBA
props this summer.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
For fact you did, Marco.
Speaker 5 (08:19):
Take money where it's at. But as far as this
game goes, I am gonna live by the process. And
the process is If Detroit was in a sandwich spot
last week, that means they were looking for this one.
I'm gonna take Detroit in revenge. I think Dan Campbell
is going to put the pedal to the medal the
whole way here. Reason I'm not jumping up and down
(08:41):
for a team total here is because Green Bay does
have a good defense. And you know there is that
elephant in the room. We all know that Detroit and
I don't have to remind Kelly of a particular Thanksgiving Day,
but they have laid some major eggs on Thanksgiving.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
So glad that I don't have to touch a Thanksgiving
game this year for survivor.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
Maybe my family will not hate me this year.
Speaker 5 (09:05):
So go ahead for me. I like Detroit in this one.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
All right, guys, we have a Thanksgiving promo here at
wager talk dot com. I want to let everybody know
about John Hogland.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
Where are you there?
Speaker 2 (09:20):
He is?
Speaker 1 (09:21):
We got a fill in producer today.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
Dan Alexander is traveling, and I think John Hoaglin's a
little bit mad about that Bears beat down. Still Thanksgiving
special seven days for sixty seven dollars? Are you guys
doing that weird kid thing here? What happened to the
sixty nine dollars?
Speaker 1 (09:37):
Anyway? Right now?
Speaker 2 (09:38):
Through Sunday at midnight, you can secure seven full days
every single play from your favorite handicapper across all sports.
That's college football, NFL, NHL, college basketball, NBA, and more.
That includes any of their five percent best bets normally
priced at thirty five dollars individually.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
So at less than ten dollars per day.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
You guys want to jump on that seven days or
sixty seven dollars, you.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
Guys just me. I get it, Yeah, I get it.
I get the kid thing. And what are you gonna do?
Speaker 2 (10:07):
I don't understand it, but we're gonna we're gonna lean
into that. I got the Odds Logic screen back open.
We're gonna go right back to these things giving games
Kansas City. Marco is Wow, this is interesting. There's a
lot of three starting to populate on the Odds Logic screen. Yes,
Juice minus one sixteen, at super Book minus one fifteen,
at Circa minus one eighteen, at some prominent books. They're
(10:29):
not here in the United States total fifty two. This
is interesting, Marco, because I was on the Dallas Cowboys.
They were my barking dog on Sunday and as I said,
fade my best bets Kansas City got the win, but
not the cover for me. But Dallas man twenty one nothing.
I said, turn this garbage off. I'm gonna go to
(10:49):
the beach or go do something else with my Sunday.
And next thing I know, here come the Cowboys. Was
that more of the Cowboys kind of getting their offense
going dack not making mistakes or was that more of
the Eagles just letting that game get away from them,
because the Eagles in the first half was a completely
different team in the second.
Speaker 5 (11:08):
Yeah, And that's a mirror image of the first game
when when Philadelphia and Dallas played, if you remember that
was the opening game of the season. Both teams went
up and down the field. It was twenty one to
twenty at halftime, and I was holding the I think
it was like over forty seven and a half or something.
I said, oh wow, I'm good here. And then there
was only three points scored in the second half. I
(11:30):
blamed the Philadelphia Eagles. Okay, when you've got a twenty
one nothing lead in a game, how in the hell
do you only run the football eighteen times for the
entire game and your running back is sheche Kwan Bok
League what's wrong with you?
Speaker 1 (11:47):
You know?
Speaker 5 (11:47):
And this has been a problem that drives me nuts
with Philadelphia, and I'm sure it drives you know, our
regular producer Dan nuts too with some of the decisions
that this coaching staff makes. But here's the thing, Kelly,
and it's funny that we've got this game on Thanksgiving
because the gambling gods took one away from you with
Kansas City that you really deserve to win. That team
(12:09):
dominated four hundred and ninety four the two hundred and
fifty five yardage against Indianapolis, yet had to go to
overtime to win by three. And then the Cowboys come
the other direction from down twenty one. So the gambling
gods giveth, then they taketh, and they all should balance out.
But I'm looking at this one and here's the difference
(12:31):
for me. Everybody is now starting to jump on the
Dallas bandwagon. Why because oh, they made a trade, it's
a trade deadline. They got quinnin Williams. It's turned a
defense around. Look what they've done the last two weeks.
Stop people. Two weeks ago they played the Raiders. The
(12:52):
Raiders the worst offense in football. Okay, the Browns embarrassed
them on Sunday. They couldn't do anything against the Browns.
So stop with the Dallas defense. Last week Philadelphia twenty
one quick points and you don't run the football anymore?
What's wrong with you? Okay, Kansas City is going to
(13:15):
expose the defense. It's not fixed. Yes, Dallas's offense is good,
but guess what they're going against. The best defense they
faced all year, this Kansas City defense. They've last six games,
They've held five of the six opponents to twenty two
or fewer points. Only one opponent is top one hundred yards.
(13:37):
And if you become one dimensional, and I know Pickens
is having a great year with Dallas. Yeah, Pittsburgh got
the short end of that trade, but you know if
they got to go one dimensional, Dak's gonna fill the
pressure with that pass rush. I'm taking Kansas City either
four and two in their last six games. The only
(13:57):
two games they lost was the Buffalo and Denver, still
two good teams, and they were both by seven points
or less. I'll take Kansas City, and I think this
is going to be a high scoring game. I got
KC thirty one twenty four.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Marco, I guess I have questions, where's that scoring going
to come from from Kansas City. I'm gonna let VR
answer that one because I head to you know, initial
thought process here fifty two and a half.
Speaker 1 (14:24):
I thought, wow, that is that is high.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
For a Kansas City team that just consistently goes under
their total. If you guys watch opening line report yesterday,
Teddy made me bust out this guy and said, if
you like the over, bet it now. It's now a
point and a half higher a VR, are we too
late to bet the over? And b do you agree
with Marco that this is the defense to get the
Kansas City offense going.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
Well, yeah, you're definitely not getting the best of it
as if you would have bet a little earlier on
the over, because the look ahead was forty nine, you're
now looking at fifty two, so obviously some of the
value has been extracted. But as you get up over
those fifties, again, the higher the scoring, the more the variants.
Speaker 4 (15:02):
The lower the scoring, the lower the variants.
Speaker 3 (15:04):
So that's why I don't get as concerned once those
totals go above fifty, like fifty four, fifty five, fifty
six to fifty seven, not a big difference between a
point point and a half compared to when you're in
the thirties. Going from you know, thirty six and a
half to a thirty eight, that's a big difference. But
I would have preferred to debt at earlier, and I've
mean the same way over. In fact, I had this
(15:27):
my total set at fifty, so I kind of.
Speaker 4 (15:29):
It wasn't enough of an edge from the opener to
get involved. But I was hoping.
Speaker 3 (15:33):
Maybe with that Kansas City defense, they dropped that total
some steam under and I could come in on the
over had a better number, But that didn't happen. They
saw what Marco saw that they do expect some points.
And the reason is the Dallas defense. There's only one
team that's worst efficiency wise, and that's what the twenty
sixth toughest schedule, So Dallas has had only what six
(15:55):
teams have had an easier schedule than Dallas, so they've
had a very schedule, and yet only one team has
been worse defensively. So even though Kansas City is barely
in the top ten offensively, which is pretty impressive, when
you have the number two defense and your offense is
still number ten, they're gonna have an easier go of
it this week. So I do think Kansas City is
(16:15):
gonna have some success offensively. On the flip side, where's
Dallas going to get their success? Because again, they may
be a top ten offense, in fact, I have them
sixth inefficiency, but they're.
Speaker 4 (16:28):
Going up against a number two.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
And with Kansas City they had a top fifteen strength
of schedule, So this defense is legit, like they've done
it with a tougher strength of schedule or with the
Dallas Sure the offenses is top ten, but they've done
it with a really easy strength of schedule. Let's see
how they perform against the number two. We'll find out
on Thursday. So everything I see on paper leans to
(16:52):
the Kansas City side except the line move that opener
from three and a half down to three. Yes, the
three is on the Kansas City side, so you're getting
three at a discount on Dallas. But I do have
to pay attention to that it didn't move in the
other direction. Now, some of that has to do with
the recency bias that you know, how Dallas look, They're
(17:12):
coming off back to back wins. They just beat Philadelphia,
So again, is that the reason for it?
Speaker 4 (17:20):
And when we look at Case. Yeah, they beat a
big win.
Speaker 3 (17:22):
For them last week Indianapolis, but they came in limping
having lost, you know, two of three. The thing with
Case is this, when they win, they win with margin.
This year's been different other than that last week with Indianapolis.
If you check their games out, when they win, they
win with margin. That wasn't the case last year. When
they lose, though, they don't lose by margin, which tells
(17:44):
you that they've had a lot of bad luck. This
is a much better team than the record reflects even
That's why power rating wise, I have a six and
five team in my top five power ratings because of that.
Speaker 4 (17:58):
So I like Kansas City. I agree with Marco.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
I haven't gotten the window, but right now it's favorite
or pass for me as well. I also agree with
that over just not sure I could get the window
based on that line movement.
Speaker 2 (18:10):
All right, speaking of line move and it's completely predicated
on a guy named Joe Burrow Baltimore. Pretty much seven
across the board, there is one very sharp we'll call
it prominent book not in the United State.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
It's got to be careful now here on the way.
You're talking YouTube channel, because you get in trouble for
that kind of thing.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
But they are at six and a half minus one thirteen,
So very interesting whenever we see stuff like that pop
up VR because kind of makes your spider senses go
off and go, hmm, are they baiting everybody in? Come
on in, guys, the water is warm. You want to
bet the Ravens under a touchdown?
Speaker 4 (18:48):
Listen.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
They make it easier for us because we have a
look ahead to compare. So we know that the look
ahead was eleven and a half. That was the situation
now was going to play, and the official the first
adjustment was back down the six and a half. So
the drop off they concluded was worth five points. That
that's the drop off to the number one guy moving
(19:13):
up now to Burrow.
Speaker 4 (19:15):
Five point is the is the increase? I don't think so.
Speaker 3 (19:20):
Here's why. Even though you look at Flacco career wise,
or more important, look over his last ten starts, his
QBR was about a seventy point six. When you look
in twenty twenty five, which matters this year, it's over ninety.
So his QBR is above a ninety. He's playing good.
(19:41):
It's not like he hasn't played well, and they're just
not winning football games.
Speaker 4 (19:46):
That's that's the situation. When you look at Cincinnati and.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
They're not even covering games, and now all of a sudden,
just because that starting quarterbacks coming in. I get Burrow's
the stud, but now you're getting less points like that.
Speaker 4 (20:01):
If you would have got out.
Speaker 3 (20:02):
Ahead and got the look ahead, then yeah, great bet.
But now that's been factored in that we know the information,
we know he's playing. The price has been adjusted for
him playing, and I think it's been over adjusted. I
really do. I like the Baltimore side. I like how
they've been playing. I like their coming in winning games
(20:24):
and not outperforming the betting market. They were two touchdown
favorites only won by field goal the week before. They
were eight point favorites, only won that game by seven. Like,
they're not covering, but they're winning five straight wins. They're
playing at home where we know they have one of
the strongest home field advantages close to two points, which is.
Speaker 4 (20:42):
A lot in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
And even with all their problems they had at the
quarterback situation, they're still a top ten offense, top ten defense,
and they've had a top ten strength of schedule.
Speaker 4 (20:57):
So this Baltimore team another six and five.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
That's legit and top ten in my power ratings, where
Cincinnati I only have five teams that Cincinnati.
Speaker 4 (21:08):
Would be favored over on a neutral field.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
So add all that in, add the Burrow, and I
think that gives you Baltimore at discount. Again, haven't gotten
to the window, but I do like the Baltimore sign.
Almost wish this was seven and a half. Kel Yeah, yeah,
I could just green Bay Baltimore and tease it.
Speaker 4 (21:28):
I want to break my own rules, but I can't
do it. I'll be forced to lay this because you
can eve like six and a half right now? Minus
one twenty not a bad bet?
Speaker 2 (21:37):
All right, Marco, do you think this is a Bilo
spot on the Ravens. I'll call you our AFC North expert.
Speaker 5 (21:44):
Well, great segue. Remember a month ago, Kelly, right here
on bed on it, I said, everybody take the two
and five Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North. Well,
fast forward a month, guys, take a look at the standings.
Who's in first place in the AFC North. Yeah, it's
(22:06):
the Baltimore Ravens. They've run off five straight wins, and honestly,
you know people are. One of the reasons why they're
so hept up here on Cincinnati is, Yeah, the Joe
Burrow factor coming back. But Baltimore has been winning but
not blowing people out. They've been just doing what they
need to do. Now you're gonna see in the next
(22:28):
three weeks what Baltimore is all about. Because Baltimore can
put a hammer lock on the AFC North in the
next three weeks. Why because they play Cincinnati this week,
Pittsburgh next week, and Cincinnati the week after. It could
be all over in three weeks and Baltimore have the
(22:50):
AFC North locked up. I am looking at Baltimore in
this game. Yeah, Joe Burrow's coming back, but let's be realistic. Okay,
he's playing on a short week. He hasn't played since
Week two. Is he ready to trade points with Lamar Jackson?
Because one thing about it is no matter who's behind
center for the Bengals, they still got the same defense
(23:14):
on the field, and that defense is absolutely trash. They
haven't been able to stop anybody last nine games. Seven
of the nine games they've allowed twenty eight or more points.
Guess what the two games they didn't allow twenty eight points.
They allowed twenty six and twenty seven. They cannot stop anybody.
This will be a breakout game for Lamar Jackson. I
(23:37):
like Baltimore. You know what else I like? Sorry, guys,
I'm bringing you a team total. I'm all over Baltimore
over thirty and a half because they're gonna have to
score points because Joe Burrow's back and he's gonna score points,
which will keep them proving Baltimore didn't have to score
a lot of points because they were playing bad teams.
(24:00):
They were never threatened. But if Joe Borow does score
some points with the Bengals, that's going to force Baltimore
to answer and keep answering. How they don't go over
thirty and a half. I don't know. Unless bad weather
breaks out Thursday night in Baltimore. That's the only thing
that stops this one. I'm taking Baltimore team total over
Kelly Well.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
That'll make Aeron Epstein happy because she is gonna be
there freezing her tail off at the game. Hopefully the
weather does subside. I think it's gonna be a pretty
good game, and again, I wish that it would hit
seven and a half so that I can tease it,
but I don't think we're gonna get that lucky Marco.
Speaker 1 (24:34):
I mentioned how well you know.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
The AFC North, but let's see how well you know
the NFC North. Because the Chicago Bears are a seven
point underdog as it stands right now, there is one
six and a half down here and little Old Florida
the hard Rock. So either the delay is on the
odds logic screen or maybe just maybe they're baiting somebody.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
To come on in and bet the eagle.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
I'm not sure which, because I've been dead wrong about
the Chicago Bears team several times this year, and frankly,
I don't want to keep being wrong. So tell me
how not fraudulent the Chicago Bears are.
Speaker 5 (25:12):
Well, Kelly, you were right. They are fraudulent. Okay, they're
eight and one the last nine games. But before you
start printing those playoff tickets, let's just pump the brakes
because they only beat one team, one team in that
nine game stretch that had a winning record in that
(25:32):
one team is the fraudulent Pittsburgh Steelers. Okay, that's the
only team they beat, and they were life and death
to do it thirty one to twenty eight. Do you
want to know what the combined record, including the Steelers
record is in their eight wins, twenty seven and sixty one.
Chew on that a little bit. Twenty seven and sixty
(25:54):
one is the combined record of the eight teams they
have beat during this streak. The Bears defense is not
good and it's going to be exposed by a Philadelphia
offense that should be able to get their running game going.
I was just livid that they weren't running the football
last week. With a twenty one to nothing lead, Barkley
(26:14):
should have a breakout game. And here's the problem. Chicago
can't stop a traditional running game. Okay, and the Steelers
went wild on the ground against them last week, but
a turnover hurt them in that game, a key turnover.
The situation with Philadelphia is they're a dual monster on
the ground because you got to worry about the traditional
(26:36):
running game with Barkley, you got to worry about that
passing game downfield with AJ Smith and company. But you
also got to worry about Jalen Hurts taking off with
the football. I don't see the Bear stopping Philadelphia. I
like Philadelphia in this one. And then you want to
talk difference in defense. Philadelphia has held five straight opponents
(26:59):
to twenty four or less, and that's going to be
bad news for Caleb Williams if he's got to try
to win this game through the air, if they don't
get balance attack, and if you look at it against
crap teams. I gave you the record of what they've
been playing last three games. Caleb Williams, where everybody's singing
(27:19):
his praises, He's only completed fifty five of one hundred
and three passes. That's not a good percentage for an
NFL quarterback. I see him having to force the issue
coming from behind and that's going to create a turnover
or two by interception. I'll take Philadelphia thirty four to twenty.
I'm laying it with Philly.
Speaker 2 (27:40):
All right, Yard, do you agree with Marco? Is this
a by low spot on Philly after choking things away
there in Dallas on Sunday?
Speaker 4 (27:48):
Yeah, it really is.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
Not only is there the recency bias against the Philadelphia
side off that loss, but Chicago's pony. We talk about
the power ratings in college football, how you're able to
take advantage and even though we don't have ratings from
you know, coaches, poll or journalists or anything like that
(28:10):
to take advantage of the narrative.
Speaker 4 (28:12):
We still have the records, and when you look at.
Speaker 3 (28:14):
Chicago, they're an eight and three team, just like Philadelphia.
Speaker 4 (28:18):
But here's the difference.
Speaker 3 (28:19):
With Philadelphia power rating wise, only five teams would be
favored over them on neutral field base on my power rating,
probably four would be favored over Philadelphia, so they're top
five power rating. Chicago they're not even in my top twenty.
They're outside the top twenty. So there may be ten
teams that Chicago should be favored over on a neutral field. Now,
(28:43):
obviously the job of the joke books is to balance
their risk so that they profit. It's not the predict outcomes.
And with the Chicago that's the situation where they're they're
winning football games, but it has to do with their
strength of schedule. They've had the thirtieth toughest strength of schedule.
Only two teams had an easier go of it, and
(29:06):
yet they don't have a top fifteen offense efficient efficiency wise,
they don't even have a top twenty five defense. Defensively,
there's only five or six teams that are less efficient
than the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 4 (29:20):
And like I said, offensively, there's middle of the pack.
Speaker 3 (29:24):
Not in the top fifteen, they're like seventeenth. So this
is a team that's been the beneficiary of an easy
strength of schedule. Only two have had an easier go
of it Philadelphia not so Lucky, the fourth toughest schedule
in all of the NFL. And they've managed a top
ten offense and a top five defense. That's a legit team.
(29:48):
And now you're getting them at a touchdown, a discounted touchdown.
Even I could lay six and a half right now
with Philadelphia.
Speaker 4 (29:56):
I love the Eagles here. Money line them to death.
That's the play anything less than.
Speaker 3 (30:02):
Like three three point fifty where they just got to
win this game, you know, three out of four times
to break even. Because they win this game four out
of five times. You know, this is a minus four
hundred money line is where they should be, meaning they
don't lose the game out right at home. Just look
at the splits. So I like the Eagles here. I
agree with Marco having gotten to the window. Need to
see how the market reacts to my pick. I respect it,
(30:26):
so we'll see.
Speaker 4 (30:27):
But I do like Philadelphia as well, all right.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
I just wanted to wish everybody a very happy Thanksgiving.
I hope you guys enjoy the day with your family,
and we always appreciate you hanging out with us here
on the Wager Talking YouTube channel, especially here on bet
on It.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
We'll be back tomorrow Wednesday afternoon.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
Per usual, we're going to do our full college football
slate as well as Sunday and Monday NFL. Thank you
to Marco, thank you to VR, and thank you to
all of you guys at home. Happy Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving is upon us.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Here on beat on It, we're gonna break down the
Thanksgiving trio as well as Black Friday up next on
bat on It.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
Welcome into bet on It.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Kelly Stewart here joined with Yanni the Greek and Marco
D'Angelo of wager Talk dot Com Quick Show Today a
couple of days before Thanksgiving, so we wanted to get
you guys some early information on the Thanksgiving and Black
Friday slate. If you guys are looking for the college
football edition to bet on It viaut Wednesday night on
the wager Talking YouTube channel, as well as the Sunday
(00:48):
and Monday night football games for the NFL. All right,
we're gonna get right into this, guys. I got my
Odds logic screen open and we're gonna go rotation order down.
Green Bay starts at one pm Eastern on Thanksgiving, taking
on Detroit. They are a two and a half point
underdog pretty much across the board total forty nine and VR.
(01:09):
I'm gonna let you go first.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
We're gonna do roundtable style kind of like we used to.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
Yeah, I don't want to paint myself into a corner
because I haven't gotten to the window with the Thanksgiving
games yet. I have released two NFL games for Sunday,
also a couple of college football, but still working on
these Thanksgiving games. Because the market's a little bit different.
You gotta remember each market, it depends on the participants
and when you get to a weekend like this where
(01:37):
there's a lot of people all from work, a lot
of primetime standalone TV games, betters are looking for action.
So there's gonna be a lot of public money overwhelming
the betting market, which should force a lot of line
moves that are not sharp money related. So it's a
very different read of line movement. Here's what we had
(01:57):
for this game. It opened minus three. That was to
look ahead N forty seven now two and a half.
That's a big movement considering the books should expect Detroit money.
They're a home team. Power rating wise, they're a little
above green Bay. I have Detroit as in the top five.
I have green Bay right outside of my top five.
(02:20):
Detroit's had the tougher strength of schedule. The defense for
green Bay has been their strength top five in the
NFL efficiency wise. They will get tested against the top
five offense this week, but it's on the defensive side
of the ball that Green Bay is going to have
a little bit easy go of it, meaning their offense
has been their weakness, because you gotta remember the last
(02:42):
three games that the Packers lost, they only allowed ten
points and they lost that game. They allowed sixteen points
and they lost that game, and they allowed thirteen points
and they lost those games. So three games that they
defense allowed less than sixteen points and the offense was
and able to get them a W. In two of
those games it was thirteen or last points they allowed
(03:05):
and still didn't get the W. So it's the offense
that's been struggling. Fortunately for them, they're going up against
a weaker defense than they have of late. In fact,
Detroit's not even in the top ten efficiency wise, but
again they have had a top ten strength of schedule
where it sits right now. If this was the game's
(03:28):
kicking off in an hour from now, I would be all.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
Over Green Bay.
Speaker 5 (03:31):
In a teaser.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
I would take them up the plus eight and a half.
Even though the total seems to be moving towards the over.
That's not a surprise because the recreational betters will be
betting this game over the total, so a lot of
the bettingston gets know that, especially a weekend like this,
they're gonna get out ahead of the market that's betting
from a position to strength. They go over forty seven,
(03:54):
This gets the fifty. By Thursday. They're in the driver's seat.
They have a nice middle, they have play CB ticket
in their pocket, they have, you know, a great position
they find themselves in. So don't conclude that the overs,
you know, a legit steam move. Follow that odds logic
screen and see if there's any resistance as the total
takes upwards past that forty nine, because I have it a.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
Little bit lower. I actually made my total forty seven,
forty seven and a half, but I'm respecting the money
move that's forced it up the forty nine. So that's
where I stand.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
I like Green Bay in a teaser right now up
to eight and a half and I lean under. But
the market is respecting the over money early on, so
I have to, you know, monitor the line and see
if I'm going to take any side, any position on
the total.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
Yeah, I'm with VR here.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
I tas the Packers with the Jets and the Patriots
Cardinals might still be an option for some of you,
but not for me, at least none of those minus
one ten teasers.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Marco D'Angelo before we started, VR said.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
I might be an idiot for liking Bay, and I said,
you're supposed to stay it out live on air.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
So that I can teet up to Mark and be
like Marco, is VR an idiot?
Speaker 5 (05:06):
Well, I'm not gonna call VR an idiot that I
can't disagree with the the teaser bit. I am going
to address, you know, the point that you made about
the initial move from three to two and a half.
Now we know when we see those look ahead lines,
that is before last week's games were played. So the
knee jerk reaction from watching last Sunday is the public
(05:29):
saw Green Bay take care of Minnesota, or I should
say JJ McCarthy took care of Minnesota. But they look
good in winning will Detroit. Although we cast our team total,
we needed over time to get that one home, and
I'll take it because I've lost plays, you know, in
bad fashion before, so I'll take the gifts sometimes. But
(05:51):
people are looking saying, hey, Detroit had to struggle with
the Giants and had to go to overtime. So I
think that's why you saw the initial tick go from
three to two and a half. Now, with that said,
I'm gonna bash myself for being an idiot. I was
so locked into the team total on Detroit last week
that you know, I saw it, but I ignored it.
(06:14):
That was as big of a sandwich game as you
could have for the Lions last week. Think about it.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
You're the.
Speaker 5 (06:22):
I know, but I was locked in on that. Oh
the over on the team total with Detroit, and I
felt because they played so badly on Sunday Night that
they wouldn't lay an egg. But think about it, Sunday
night football against the defending champs, Thursday, Thanksgiving Day against
green Bay, who embarrassed Dan Campbell on Opening Day. If
(06:45):
you remember they to the final score doesn't tell the
story of that game. Detroit was never in that game
against green Bay. And if you remember all the knee
jerk reactions after that game because Detroit could not move
the football, Yeah, I remember their.
Speaker 4 (07:02):
Phony, they're done.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
They lost their offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, this team sign Yeah.
Speaker 5 (07:07):
And what did Dan Campbell do? And that's why I
you know, I've locked into team totals on Campbell because
when he gets embarrassed, he's the bully on the block.
He has to go out and you know, and prove
his worth and what he do. He ran the score
up on the Bears the following week against his former
(07:27):
offensive coordinator. He was throwing the football in the fourth
quarter with a monster lead, put fifty two on the board.
That's why, you know, I picked these spots. You've got
to understand coaches, and you know, shout out to one
of our listeners, Kelly. If somebody a comments section, I
love all of you guys, but my god, you don't
like money. Somebody called me out for giving winners on
(07:50):
team totals, like, oh, some totals. I don't want to
I don't I don't want to.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
Hear about anything that anybody cares about betting. You have
to remember five years ago we were all betting Russian
table tennis and Mexican soccer matches that were probably fixed.
Speaker 5 (08:07):
Give me a break, Kelly, I had you betting WNBA
props this summer.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
For fact you did, Marco.
Speaker 5 (08:19):
Take money where it's at. But as far as this
game goes, I am gonna live by the process. And
the process is If Detroit was in a sandwich spot
last week, that means they were looking for this one.
I'm gonna take Detroit in revenge. I think Dan Campbell
is going to put the pedal to the medal the
whole way here. Reason I'm not jumping up and down
(08:41):
for a team total here is because Green Bay does
have a good defense. And you know there is that
elephant in the room. We all know that Detroit and
I don't have to remind Kelly of a particular Thanksgiving Day,
but they have laid some major eggs on Thanksgiving.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
So glad that I don't have to touch a Thanksgiving
game this year for survivor.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
Maybe my family will not hate me this year.
Speaker 5 (09:05):
So go ahead for me. I like Detroit in this one.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
All right, guys, we have a Thanksgiving promo here at
wager talk dot com. I want to let everybody know
about John Hogland.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
Where are you there?
Speaker 2 (09:20):
He is?
Speaker 1 (09:21):
We got a fill in producer today.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
Dan Alexander is traveling, and I think John Hoaglin's a
little bit mad about that Bears beat down. Still Thanksgiving
special seven days for sixty seven dollars? Are you guys
doing that weird kid thing here? What happened to the
sixty nine dollars?
Speaker 1 (09:37):
Anyway? Right now?
Speaker 2 (09:38):
Through Sunday at midnight, you can secure seven full days
every single play from your favorite handicapper across all sports.
That's college football, NFL, NHL, college basketball, NBA, and more.
That includes any of their five percent best bets normally
priced at thirty five dollars individually.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
So at less than ten dollars per day.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
You guys want to jump on that seven days or
sixty seven dollars, you.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
Guys just me. I get it, Yeah, I get it.
I get the kid thing. And what are you gonna do?
Speaker 2 (10:07):
I don't understand it, but we're gonna we're gonna lean
into that. I got the Odds Logic screen back open.
We're gonna go right back to these things giving games
Kansas City. Marco is Wow, this is interesting. There's a
lot of three starting to populate on the Odds Logic screen. Yes,
Juice minus one sixteen, at super Book minus one fifteen,
at Circa minus one eighteen, at some prominent books. They're
(10:29):
not here in the United States total fifty two. This
is interesting, Marco, because I was on the Dallas Cowboys.
They were my barking dog on Sunday and as I said,
fade my best bets Kansas City got the win, but
not the cover for me. But Dallas man twenty one nothing.
I said, turn this garbage off. I'm gonna go to
(10:49):
the beach or go do something else with my Sunday.
And next thing I know, here come the Cowboys. Was
that more of the Cowboys kind of getting their offense
going dack not making mistakes or was that more of
the Eagles just letting that game get away from them,
because the Eagles in the first half was a completely
different team in the second.
Speaker 5 (11:08):
Yeah, And that's a mirror image of the first game
when when Philadelphia and Dallas played, if you remember that
was the opening game of the season. Both teams went
up and down the field. It was twenty one to
twenty at halftime, and I was holding the I think
it was like over forty seven and a half or something.
I said, oh wow, I'm good here. And then there
was only three points scored in the second half. I
(11:30):
blamed the Philadelphia Eagles. Okay, when you've got a twenty
one nothing lead in a game, how in the hell
do you only run the football eighteen times for the
entire game and your running back is sheche Kwan Bok
League what's wrong with you?
Speaker 1 (11:47):
You know?
Speaker 5 (11:47):
And this has been a problem that drives me nuts
with Philadelphia, and I'm sure it drives you know, our
regular producer Dan nuts too with some of the decisions
that this coaching staff makes. But here's the thing, Kelly,
and it's funny that we've got this game on Thanksgiving
because the gambling gods took one away from you with
Kansas City that you really deserve to win. That team
(12:09):
dominated four hundred and ninety four the two hundred and
fifty five yardage against Indianapolis, yet had to go to
overtime to win by three. And then the Cowboys come
the other direction from down twenty one. So the gambling
gods giveth, then they taketh, and they all should balance out.
But I'm looking at this one and here's the difference
(12:31):
for me. Everybody is now starting to jump on the
Dallas bandwagon. Why because oh, they made a trade, it's
a trade deadline. They got quinnin Williams. It's turned a
defense around. Look what they've done the last two weeks.
Stop people. Two weeks ago they played the Raiders. The
(12:52):
Raiders the worst offense in football. Okay, the Browns embarrassed
them on Sunday. They couldn't do anything against the Browns.
So stop with the Dallas defense. Last week Philadelphia twenty
one quick points and you don't run the football anymore?
What's wrong with you? Okay, Kansas City is going to
(13:15):
expose the defense. It's not fixed. Yes, Dallas's offense is good,
but guess what they're going against. The best defense they
faced all year, this Kansas City defense. They've last six games,
They've held five of the six opponents to twenty two
or fewer points. Only one opponent is top one hundred yards.
(13:37):
And if you become one dimensional, and I know Pickens
is having a great year with Dallas. Yeah, Pittsburgh got
the short end of that trade, but you know if
they got to go one dimensional, Dak's gonna fill the
pressure with that pass rush. I'm taking Kansas City either
four and two in their last six games. The only
(13:57):
two games they lost was the Buffalo and Denver, still
two good teams, and they were both by seven points
or less. I'll take Kansas City, and I think this
is going to be a high scoring game. I got
KC thirty one twenty four.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Marco, I guess I have questions, where's that scoring going
to come from from Kansas City. I'm gonna let VR
answer that one because I head to you know, initial
thought process here fifty two and a half.
Speaker 1 (14:24):
I thought, wow, that is that is high.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
For a Kansas City team that just consistently goes under
their total. If you guys watch opening line report yesterday,
Teddy made me bust out this guy and said, if
you like the over, bet it now. It's now a
point and a half higher a VR, are we too
late to bet the over? And b do you agree
with Marco that this is the defense to get the
Kansas City offense going.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
Well, yeah, you're definitely not getting the best of it
as if you would have bet a little earlier on
the over, because the look ahead was forty nine, you're
now looking at fifty two, so obviously some of the
value has been extracted. But as you get up over
those fifties, again, the higher the scoring, the more the variants.
Speaker 4 (15:02):
The lower the scoring, the lower the variants.
Speaker 3 (15:04):
So that's why I don't get as concerned once those
totals go above fifty, like fifty four, fifty five, fifty
six to fifty seven, not a big difference between a
point point and a half compared to when you're in
the thirties. Going from you know, thirty six and a
half to a thirty eight, that's a big difference. But
I would have preferred to debt at earlier, and I've
mean the same way over. In fact, I had this
(15:27):
my total set at fifty, so I kind of.
Speaker 4 (15:29):
It wasn't enough of an edge from the opener to
get involved. But I was hoping.
Speaker 3 (15:33):
Maybe with that Kansas City defense, they dropped that total
some steam under and I could come in on the
over had a better number, But that didn't happen. They
saw what Marco saw that they do expect some points.
And the reason is the Dallas defense. There's only one
team that's worst efficiency wise, and that's what the twenty
sixth toughest schedule, So Dallas has had only what six
(15:55):
teams have had an easier schedule than Dallas, so they've
had a very schedule, and yet only one team has
been worse defensively. So even though Kansas City is barely
in the top ten offensively, which is pretty impressive, when
you have the number two defense and your offense is
still number ten, they're gonna have an easier go of
it this week. So I do think Kansas City is
(16:15):
gonna have some success offensively. On the flip side, where's
Dallas going to get their success? Because again, they may
be a top ten offense, in fact, I have them
sixth inefficiency, but they're.
Speaker 4 (16:28):
Going up against a number two.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
And with Kansas City they had a top fifteen strength
of schedule, So this defense is legit, like they've done
it with a tougher strength of schedule or with the
Dallas Sure the offenses is top ten, but they've done
it with a really easy strength of schedule. Let's see
how they perform against the number two. We'll find out
on Thursday. So everything I see on paper leans to
(16:52):
the Kansas City side except the line move that opener
from three and a half down to three. Yes, the
three is on the Kansas City side, so you're getting
three at a discount on Dallas. But I do have
to pay attention to that it didn't move in the
other direction. Now, some of that has to do with
the recency bias that you know, how Dallas look, They're
(17:12):
coming off back to back wins. They just beat Philadelphia,
So again, is that the reason for it?
Speaker 4 (17:20):
And when we look at Case. Yeah, they beat a
big win.
Speaker 3 (17:22):
For them last week Indianapolis, but they came in limping
having lost, you know, two of three. The thing with
Case is this, when they win, they win with margin.
This year's been different other than that last week with Indianapolis.
If you check their games out, when they win, they
win with margin. That wasn't the case last year. When
they lose, though, they don't lose by margin, which tells
(17:44):
you that they've had a lot of bad luck. This
is a much better team than the record reflects even
That's why power rating wise, I have a six and
five team in my top five power ratings because of that.
Speaker 4 (17:58):
So I like Kansas City. I agree with Marco.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
I haven't gotten the window, but right now it's favorite
or pass for me as well. I also agree with
that over just not sure I could get the window
based on that line movement.
Speaker 2 (18:10):
All right, speaking of line move and it's completely predicated
on a guy named Joe Burrow Baltimore. Pretty much seven
across the board, there is one very sharp we'll call
it prominent book not in the United State.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
It's got to be careful now here on the way.
You're talking YouTube channel, because you get in trouble for
that kind of thing.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
But they are at six and a half minus one thirteen,
So very interesting whenever we see stuff like that pop
up VR because kind of makes your spider senses go
off and go, hmm, are they baiting everybody in? Come
on in, guys, the water is warm. You want to
bet the Ravens under a touchdown?
Speaker 4 (18:48):
Listen.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
They make it easier for us because we have a
look ahead to compare. So we know that the look
ahead was eleven and a half. That was the situation
now was going to play, and the official the first
adjustment was back down the six and a half. So
the drop off they concluded was worth five points. That
that's the drop off to the number one guy moving
(19:13):
up now to Burrow.
Speaker 4 (19:15):
Five point is the is the increase? I don't think so.
Speaker 3 (19:20):
Here's why. Even though you look at Flacco career wise,
or more important, look over his last ten starts, his
QBR was about a seventy point six. When you look
in twenty twenty five, which matters this year, it's over ninety.
So his QBR is above a ninety. He's playing good.
(19:41):
It's not like he hasn't played well, and they're just
not winning football games.
Speaker 4 (19:46):
That's that's the situation. When you look at Cincinnati and.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
They're not even covering games, and now all of a sudden,
just because that starting quarterbacks coming in. I get Burrow's
the stud, but now you're getting less points like that.
Speaker 4 (20:01):
If you would have got out.
Speaker 3 (20:02):
Ahead and got the look ahead, then yeah, great bet.
But now that's been factored in that we know the information,
we know he's playing. The price has been adjusted for
him playing, and I think it's been over adjusted. I
really do. I like the Baltimore side. I like how
they've been playing. I like their coming in winning games
(20:24):
and not outperforming the betting market. They were two touchdown
favorites only won by field goal the week before. They
were eight point favorites, only won that game by seven. Like,
they're not covering, but they're winning five straight wins. They're
playing at home where we know they have one of
the strongest home field advantages close to two points, which is.
Speaker 4 (20:42):
A lot in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
And even with all their problems they had at the
quarterback situation, they're still a top ten offense, top ten defense,
and they've had a top ten strength of schedule.
Speaker 4 (20:57):
So this Baltimore team another six and five.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
That's legit and top ten in my power ratings, where
Cincinnati I only have five teams that Cincinnati.
Speaker 4 (21:08):
Would be favored over on a neutral field.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
So add all that in, add the Burrow, and I
think that gives you Baltimore at discount. Again, haven't gotten
to the window, but I do like the Baltimore sign.
Almost wish this was seven and a half. Kel Yeah, yeah,
I could just green Bay Baltimore and tease it.
Speaker 4 (21:28):
I want to break my own rules, but I can't
do it. I'll be forced to lay this because you
can eve like six and a half right now? Minus
one twenty not a bad bet?
Speaker 2 (21:37):
All right, Marco, do you think this is a Bilo
spot on the Ravens. I'll call you our AFC North expert.
Speaker 5 (21:44):
Well, great segue. Remember a month ago, Kelly, right here
on bed on it, I said, everybody take the two
and five Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North. Well,
fast forward a month, guys, take a look at the standings.
Who's in first place in the AFC North. Yeah, it's
(22:06):
the Baltimore Ravens. They've run off five straight wins, and honestly,
you know people are. One of the reasons why they're
so hept up here on Cincinnati is, Yeah, the Joe
Burrow factor coming back. But Baltimore has been winning but
not blowing people out. They've been just doing what they
need to do. Now you're gonna see in the next
(22:28):
three weeks what Baltimore is all about. Because Baltimore can
put a hammer lock on the AFC North in the
next three weeks. Why because they play Cincinnati this week,
Pittsburgh next week, and Cincinnati the week after. It could
be all over in three weeks and Baltimore have the
(22:50):
AFC North locked up. I am looking at Baltimore in
this game. Yeah, Joe Burrow's coming back, but let's be realistic. Okay,
he's playing on a short week. He hasn't played since
Week two. Is he ready to trade points with Lamar Jackson?
Because one thing about it is no matter who's behind
center for the Bengals, they still got the same defense
(23:14):
on the field, and that defense is absolutely trash. They
haven't been able to stop anybody last nine games. Seven
of the nine games they've allowed twenty eight or more points.
Guess what the two games they didn't allow twenty eight points.
They allowed twenty six and twenty seven. They cannot stop anybody.
This will be a breakout game for Lamar Jackson. I
(23:37):
like Baltimore. You know what else I like? Sorry, guys,
I'm bringing you a team total. I'm all over Baltimore
over thirty and a half because they're gonna have to
score points because Joe Burrow's back and he's gonna score points,
which will keep them proving Baltimore didn't have to score
a lot of points because they were playing bad teams.
(24:00):
They were never threatened. But if Joe Borow does score
some points with the Bengals, that's going to force Baltimore
to answer and keep answering. How they don't go over
thirty and a half. I don't know. Unless bad weather
breaks out Thursday night in Baltimore. That's the only thing
that stops this one. I'm taking Baltimore team total over
Kelly Well.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
That'll make Aeron Epstein happy because she is gonna be
there freezing her tail off at the game. Hopefully the
weather does subside. I think it's gonna be a pretty
good game, and again, I wish that it would hit
seven and a half so that I can tease it,
but I don't think we're gonna get that lucky Marco.
Speaker 1 (24:34):
I mentioned how well you know.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
The AFC North, but let's see how well you know
the NFC North. Because the Chicago Bears are a seven
point underdog as it stands right now, there is one
six and a half down here and little Old Florida
the hard Rock. So either the delay is on the
odds logic screen or maybe just maybe they're baiting somebody.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
To come on in and bet the eagle.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
I'm not sure which, because I've been dead wrong about
the Chicago Bears team several times this year, and frankly,
I don't want to keep being wrong. So tell me
how not fraudulent the Chicago Bears are.
Speaker 5 (25:12):
Well, Kelly, you were right. They are fraudulent. Okay, they're
eight and one the last nine games. But before you
start printing those playoff tickets, let's just pump the brakes
because they only beat one team, one team in that
nine game stretch that had a winning record in that
(25:32):
one team is the fraudulent Pittsburgh Steelers. Okay, that's the
only team they beat, and they were life and death
to do it thirty one to twenty eight. Do you
want to know what the combined record, including the Steelers
record is in their eight wins, twenty seven and sixty one.
Chew on that a little bit. Twenty seven and sixty
(25:54):
one is the combined record of the eight teams they
have beat during this streak. The Bears defense is not
good and it's going to be exposed by a Philadelphia
offense that should be able to get their running game going.
I was just livid that they weren't running the football
last week. With a twenty one to nothing lead, Barkley
(26:14):
should have a breakout game. And here's the problem. Chicago
can't stop a traditional running game. Okay, and the Steelers
went wild on the ground against them last week, but
a turnover hurt them in that game, a key turnover.
The situation with Philadelphia is they're a dual monster on
the ground because you got to worry about the traditional
(26:36):
running game with Barkley, you got to worry about that
passing game downfield with AJ Smith and company. But you
also got to worry about Jalen Hurts taking off with
the football. I don't see the Bear stopping Philadelphia. I
like Philadelphia in this one. And then you want to
talk difference in defense. Philadelphia has held five straight opponents
(26:59):
to twenty four or less, and that's going to be
bad news for Caleb Williams if he's got to try
to win this game through the air, if they don't
get balance attack, and if you look at it against
crap teams. I gave you the record of what they've
been playing last three games. Caleb Williams, where everybody's singing
(27:19):
his praises, He's only completed fifty five of one hundred
and three passes. That's not a good percentage for an
NFL quarterback. I see him having to force the issue
coming from behind and that's going to create a turnover
or two by interception. I'll take Philadelphia thirty four to twenty.
I'm laying it with Philly.
Speaker 2 (27:40):
All right, Yard, do you agree with Marco? Is this
a by low spot on Philly after choking things away
there in Dallas on Sunday?
Speaker 4 (27:48):
Yeah, it really is.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
Not only is there the recency bias against the Philadelphia
side off that loss, but Chicago's pony. We talk about
the power ratings in college football, how you're able to
take advantage and even though we don't have ratings from
you know, coaches, poll or journalists or anything like that
(28:10):
to take advantage of the narrative.
Speaker 4 (28:12):
We still have the records, and when you look at.
Speaker 3 (28:14):
Chicago, they're an eight and three team, just like Philadelphia.
Speaker 4 (28:18):
But here's the difference.
Speaker 3 (28:19):
With Philadelphia power rating wise, only five teams would be
favored over them on neutral field base on my power rating,
probably four would be favored over Philadelphia, so they're top
five power rating. Chicago they're not even in my top twenty.
They're outside the top twenty. So there may be ten
teams that Chicago should be favored over on a neutral field. Now,
(28:43):
obviously the job of the joke books is to balance
their risk so that they profit. It's not the predict outcomes.
And with the Chicago that's the situation where they're they're
winning football games, but it has to do with their
strength of schedule. They've had the thirtieth toughest strength of schedule.
Only two teams had an easier go of it, and
(29:06):
yet they don't have a top fifteen offense efficient efficiency wise,
they don't even have a top twenty five defense. Defensively,
there's only five or six teams that are less efficient
than the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 4 (29:20):
And like I said, offensively, there's middle of the pack.
Speaker 3 (29:24):
Not in the top fifteen, they're like seventeenth. So this
is a team that's been the beneficiary of an easy
strength of schedule. Only two have had an easier go
of it Philadelphia not so Lucky, the fourth toughest schedule
in all of the NFL. And they've managed a top
ten offense and a top five defense. That's a legit team.
(29:48):
And now you're getting them at a touchdown, a discounted touchdown.
Even I could lay six and a half right now
with Philadelphia.
Speaker 4 (29:56):
I love the Eagles here. Money line them to death.
That's the play anything less than.
Speaker 3 (30:02):
Like three three point fifty where they just got to
win this game, you know, three out of four times
to break even. Because they win this game four out
of five times. You know, this is a minus four
hundred money line is where they should be, meaning they
don't lose the game out right at home. Just look
at the splits. So I like the Eagles here. I
agree with Marco having gotten to the window. Need to
see how the market reacts to my pick. I respect it,
(30:26):
so we'll see.
Speaker 4 (30:27):
But I do like Philadelphia as well, all right.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
I just wanted to wish everybody a very happy Thanksgiving.
I hope you guys enjoy the day with your family,
and we always appreciate you hanging out with us here
on the Wager Talking YouTube channel, especially here on bet
on It.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
We'll be back tomorrow Wednesday afternoon.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
Per usual, we're going to do our full college football
slate as well as Sunday and Monday NFL. Thank you
to Marco, thank you to VR, and thank you to
all of you guys at home. Happy Thanksgiving.
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