November 26, 2025 • 35 mins
Dive into the heart of NFL betting with our expert panel! Join Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo and Gianni the Greek as they provide in-depth analysis and professional insights on Week 13 NFL games.
Introduction 00:00
Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders 01:31
New York Giants vs New England Patriots 05:21
VR’s Steam Report 08:30
Barking Dogs 11:11
Pick the Winner & Cover the Spread? 11:53
Marco Barko 13:00
VR’s Barking Dog 15:40
KIV’s Barking Dog 19:00
Marco’s Deli 20:58
Trap Game of the Week 21:13
Best Bets 23:53
VR’s Best Bet 24:00
Marco’s Best Bet 29:00
KIV’s Best Bet 32:38
Recap 34:58
Introduction 00:00
Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders 01:31
New York Giants vs New England Patriots 05:21
VR’s Steam Report 08:30
Barking Dogs 11:11
Pick the Winner & Cover the Spread? 11:53
Marco Barko 13:00
VR’s Barking Dog 15:40
KIV’s Barking Dog 19:00
Marco’s Deli 20:58
Trap Game of the Week 21:13
Best Bets 23:53
VR’s Best Bet 24:00
Marco’s Best Bet 29:00
KIV’s Best Bet 32:38
Recap 34:58
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
NFL Week thirteen sands the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games.
Those are in another video if you guys missed that
over the wager Talk YouTube channel. But we're still gonna
go over Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football. We've got
the Steam report from VR, We've got the Deli from Marco.
Those barking dogs keep on cash and outright, and that
(00:21):
is the name of the game. My best bets, not
so much Marco and VR, though they've been making you
guys money all season long. Right up next here on
bet on It Happy Thanksgiving. That is a different video,
(00:50):
as I alluded to, But I'm assuming you guys are
watching this as your regularly scheduled program. Make sure you
guys spend some time with your friends and family. You
damn degenerate. Yes, I will not be. I will be
watching NFL and probably on end Zone live with the
Press hating my life as he goes on some crazy rants.
So we'll see you guys over there. Last call on
(01:12):
Saturday with me and VR. If you guys are looking
for college football, that is a different video as well.
But this is the thirteenth week of the NFL season.
Marco DiAngelo, Yanni corrals, and we're going to get right
in to bet on It with Sunday Night Football. My
Denver Broncos six and a half point road favorites at
(01:33):
the Washington Commanders total forty three and a half't we
talk a lot about fraudulent teams here on bet on It.
Marco gave out one for Black Friday. Whoopsie. That being said,
are the Denver Broncos fraudulent? I kind of think they
might be.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
Well, here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
They're winning. They got only two losses. Call they're nine
and two football team, but they're not getting it done
by margin, and that's the difference. And when you're winning
by seven eight to three games and six of those
are by three or four points or less, it could
have gone the other way for you. And when you
(02:12):
dig into the data, there's teams that are have a
worst record that would be favored over them.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
And what I mean by that is like.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
Kansas City, Baltimore, Houston. Those are teams that are six
and five, seven and four Detroit, seven and four, Buffalo,
They would all be favored over a nine and two Denver.
And the reason for it is Denver's had a very easy.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Strength of schedule.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
In fact, only four teams in all the NFL have
had an easier strength of schedule than Denver. And yet
even with that easy strength of schedule, they don't even
have a top twenty offense. In efficiency, they're in the
bottom ten offensively. It's the defensive side of the ball
that's impressive for Denver, where they're top five, but once
(03:01):
again it's with one of the easiest schedules in.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
All of the NFL.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
That's why how much you know stock can you really
put even in that defense.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Now, on the flip side, you look at Washington.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
They've had a much tougher strength of schedule than Denver,
has nothing to really brag about. Not impressive, I mean,
twenty second offense, barely bottom five defensively. Statistically, again, nothing
sexy about Washington. So it isn't really where I'm saying
(03:34):
I have a bet on Washington. Instead, I'm looking at
a fade of Denver and I haven't gotten into the
window with This is a disclaimer. It's the TV game
I was given and it's just if I had to
bet it. I just think that the line's a little
bit too high because you look at the splits Denver's
been a powerhouse at home where they haven't lost a
single game.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
They're only three and two on the road.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
You look at Washington, They've won two x the amount
of home games as they have on the road. So
I like to split there. I like the fact that
Denver's coming off a huge, huge divisional win against Kansas
City after beating the Raiders another divisional win. But let's
(04:17):
not forget they were eight and a half point favorite
against the Raiders, and that's what happens to a team
that's not elite. They get caught looking ahead and you
saw what happened. They only beat the Raiders by three points.
Why because they had Kansas City on deck. That's what
you would expect from a team that isn't dominant, and
at nine and two, you should be dominant, and that's
just not what Denver is. So back to this game,
(04:41):
That's why I wouldn't be comfortable laying a touchdown on
the road, because you got to be dominant to do that.
You have to have offense to do that. Because you're
talking about winning by double digits, and with Washington not
having covered sixth straight games, seven straight games. Now, I
think that the markets going looking at a correction.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
They're getting a little more points than they should. Denver's
given more points than they should. We're getting a little
bit of line value. Best you could ever hope for
give me Washington plus the points.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
Yeah, I considered that side as well, maybe at least
in a couple of my contest picks. Mark, I'm curious
to see who you like on Monday Night football, the
New York Giants seven and a half point underdogs at
New England. Is New England a fraudulent team?
Speaker 4 (05:28):
I don't think so, Kelly, and you know the New
York Giants. You know, let's you know, it's Thanksgiving. What
are you gonna be thankful for? Let's be thankful for
Jameis Winston because he's gonna entertain us for at least
a couple games every year. And he did last Sunday.
I don't know if you saw the touchdown past lot.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
In the movie he made to get into the end zone.
Speaker 4 (05:52):
That was fun, But the knee jerk reaction if you
look at the Giants after what they did last week,
go into Detroit fourteen point underdogs. They had that game one.
Detroit had to hit a long field goal at the
end of the game to send it to overtime, and
then they won it in overtime. We also see that
(06:14):
the Lions. Did they get caught looking ahead last week?
And I'm kicking myself because that was a big sandwich spot.
But I thought coming off of a loss they would
be better focused. But face it, they came off a
Sunday night football game against Philadelphia the week before, and
they had that game on Thanksgiving Day with Green Bay.
(06:37):
So the Giants win or narrow loss looks better than
it actually was. And what do I tell you teams
that have a big effort and come up just short,
that is the poster child for lose the same game twice.
And we've got New England that's coming home here. Did
(06:58):
they look past since last week? Possibly there was a
lot of buzz that Joe Burrow was gonna play last
week and then he didn't. Did they overlook them? Were
they looking ahead to Monday Night football? New England's not
been on Monday Night football for a while, you know,
since the days of Tampa Bay, or excuse me, since
Tom Brady before he went to Tampa Bay. They were
(07:21):
a regular fixture on primetime games. This is a statement
game for them. I think they were looking ahead last week,
and I think you're gonna see this team who is
good on both sides of the football. Drake May far
and away the best second year quarterback in the NFL
this year. He has made the most progress, even over
(07:41):
Caleb Williams in Chicago. The defense for New England is solid.
I don't see the Giants being able to move the
football this week against New England the way they did
against Detroit. We know Detroit has their problems defensively, and
for England, they'll have no problem moving against this Giant's defense.
(08:04):
Let's go ahead lay the points here with New England.
I've got them winning by eleven, twenty eight to seventeen.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
All right, guys, this week you can get a free
edition of The gold Sheet. Right here is the website
you want to go to. You guys are welcome. Happy
Thanksgiving weekend, enjoy the four days with your family. Make
sure you check out VR on Sunday with Ariel Epstein.
He's going to give you the Steam Report here on Wednesdays, though,
(08:33):
we give you a little preview so that we can
codify it come Sunday.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
Yeah, little taste a little bit of the early action.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
Keep in mind some of the biggest days ahead for
Sharps with Better's home for the holidays, all from work, drinking, eating,
standalone games on TV rest ashore, a lot of money's
being wager, and money moves lines just like res does,
(09:01):
so the Sharps no to stick around. Some of these
lines will be knocked out of whack come game day
and they're there to pounce, So make sure you're there
for Last Call and steam room as well. Now, let's
look at some of the games that got hit early on.
Start with four sixty six Tennessee plus seven and a
half and seven. I'll talk about them a little bit later.
(09:23):
For sixty seven La Rams minus nine, nine and a
half and ten, and they went under forty six and
a half, just hit once that opener. For seventy Miami
minus five and five and a half, four seventy one
Atlanta look Ahead one got hit, then two got hit
as well. Cleveland plus seven Juice plus six and a
(09:46):
half plus six plus five and a half. When it
got down the four to four and a half, that's
when you saw the San Francisco money start coming in.
NFL lines are really tight, I thought you'd see some
resistance prior to that, but it shows you a lot
of steam on Cleveland and the under the look ahead
was forty and a half. You're now looking at thirty
(10:06):
six limit bets all the way down at half point
increments four to seventy six. Seattle minus seven was the
look ahead. You're now looking at double digits. Another one
that they didn't go straight the teaser protection. Instead they
were getting limit bet hit up half point increments, much
different situation. Finally, for eighty LA minus eight and a
(10:30):
half and nine, that's when you saw raider money at ten.
They took the ten when it got there, so the
books know if they get too heavy, they know where
they could get some that risk offloaded if they go
to ten with LA chargers. Keep your eye on that number.
And they also went under forty three and a half
look ahead forty two and a half and forty one
(10:53):
and a half, So a lot of under money there.
That's the steam report as of Wednesday morning. All right, thanks,
and then enjoyed the weekend too. Hope you make some money.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
Yeah, that is the plan. We want to make some money,
eat some food, and enjoy this feast week Marco D'Angelo
by far our best segment as a whole, because I've
been bringing down the averages in the bass bet department.
The Barking Dogs have been awesome. Last week's Barking Dogs
great once again. This week got me a little nervous
(11:25):
here because I'm considering using the other side of this
one in Survivor.
Speaker 4 (11:31):
Yeah, Kelly, and you know what last week and this
is a good question for Ace. You know, we talk
about in the NFL, the old adage has been if
you pick the winner, you picked the point spread winner.
I've been doing this a long long time, guys, you know,
forty six years. I don't remember a Sunday in the
NFL like last Sunday where there was as many teams
(11:56):
win but not yeah, yeah, yeah. The point spread came
into play last week. And you know, I talked to
you know on Monday with you know, Chuck Esposito from
Station's Casinos here in Vegas, and you know we'll ask
John Murray that same question. I don't remember it ever happening.
And I need you're going to see of an adjustment,
(12:16):
you know, from the books with the lines, so maybe
there will be some value with some of these favorites
this week, but this is one I don't think so,
because is there a team in the NFL right now
that the stock is any higher than the La Rams.
Everybody is in love with them. That is their super
Bowl team from the NFC, because we've seen the other
(12:38):
candidates take steps backwards. Philadelphia losing last week, we saw
Detroit lose some games recently. Nobody has taken that forefront
that is the Rams to lose. I think it's too
much public perception has them. They've coming off three big
wins in a row. You look what they've done. Go
(13:01):
back three weeks ago they played the forty nine ers.
That was a huge revenge game for them. It was
a key division game and if you remember they lost
that first meeting that Thursday night game when the forty
nine ers were decimated with injuries and somehow the forty
nine ers beat them. That was a big game. Then
two weeks ago they played Seattle. That was a battle
(13:23):
for first place. The two were tied. They got to
win twenty one to nineteen in that game. It's a
misleading final because Seattle actually outgained them four fourteen to
two forty nine. And then last week where some people,
and I was one of them, thought maybe that's where
they come back to earth. Well, it was a Sunday
night primetime game and they showed up. They showed up
(13:45):
in a big way. They demolished Tampa Bay thirty four
to seven. So now is anybody gonna want to step
in front of them? No, And that's why you're seeing
this line as high as it is and seeing it
creep over the mark ten point mark. John Q. Public
watched that game Sunday night. They also watched a Monday
night game and saw Carolina lose to San Francisco. And
(14:09):
we've talked about this before. You've got I call it
the ABC theory. The public's gonna look and see that
Carolina just lost to San Francisco. They're also gonna look
and see the Rams, just a couple of weeks ago
beat San Francisco. So if the forty nine ers can
beat Carolina and the Rams can beat San Francisco, this
is a no brainer. Right, Carolina gets blown out. No,
(14:33):
that's not the way it works. In handicapping, Rams are
filling fat and sass either traveling east to play a
Carolina team. That's gonna be very easy to look past.
They've got a division game against Arizona next week, then
followed by two key NFC games against Detroit and Seattle.
(14:54):
This is absolutely the flat spot on their card, their schedule,
and you're laying in inflated number in a potential trap.
I'm gonna go ahead and take Carolina plus the points
here Rams get a score. As VR says, I don't
know if they're gonna be able to get the outright upset,
but I will have just a little sprinkle. Remember when
(15:16):
we gave you Carolina in a spot similar to this
against the Green Bay Packers, and what happened?
Speaker 1 (15:23):
Victory out That's right, twelve and a half point road underdogs.
They sure did all right. I'm gonna be looking for
a new survivor. Pick VR. You like arguably one of
the worst teams in the NFL. I don't know if
they're the worst. Are they the worst in your power ratings?
Speaker 2 (15:42):
Second worst? Second worst? Raiders are the worst?
Speaker 3 (15:45):
Raiders are the worst, They're the second worst as the
Tennessee tone. But the point spread is the great equalizer.
We know that, and that's why a team like Tennessee
that's one in ten straight up is five and six
against the spread not that Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
One game below five hundred.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
So they do a really good job in the NFL
of pricing these teams, where even arguably the worst team
in the NFL, if you've been fading them all year,
unless you got down in good numbers, you've made very
little money doing it. That's the bottom line. And here's
the one thing I'm going to tell you about Tennessee. Again,
there's not all that to defend when offensively and defensively,
(16:23):
there's only two or three teams worsting you statistically see
there are teams worse than them offensively and defensively. Okay,
with that said, they've had the number one toughest schedule,
so teams that have had easier schedules have had have
worse stats offensively and worse stats defensively that had had
an easier go of it. This week, they're facing a
(16:46):
defense in Jacksonville that's in the bottom eight in the NFL,
and even their offense is mid tier, they're barely cracking
top sixteen. So they're not going up against like a
juggernaut in Jacksonville this week. And with Tennessee, they've shown
a lot of effort. Look over the last three weeks. Yeah,
(17:09):
they've lost those games all by one score, and they
covered all three of those. That's a team that's giving
you some effort down the stretch. And do they have
something to play for over those last three games? Yes,
they were home games. They haven't won at home yet
this season. They want to get that monkey off their back.
(17:31):
I think they're gonna give us effort again, especially against
a division opponent in Jacksonville who's.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Owned them of late.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
I mean, Jacksonville has won five of the last six.
But again, when you look at Jacksonville not winning by
margin only one week that was against the Chargers. If
you look over their last five wins, okay, only one
time have they won by more than a score. So again,
(17:59):
even they're getting w's, they're not doing it with margin.
And to cover double seven point spread, that's what you
need to do. This one I did send out to subscribers.
I'm on Tennessee. We took them at a touchdown plus seven.
I would buy it up, lay up the one twenty
five at six and a half, but I think the
(18:20):
public is gonna bet it up for you anyway. You
should be able to get some sevens on them game day.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
Yeah, you mentioned, there's gonna be a ton of public
getting involved.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
No disrespect.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
They'll be chasing by Sunday what they lost Thursday, Friday
and Saturday.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
I don't know if they're gonna lose Thursday Friday because
guess what, it has been really chalky.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
Like, yeah, you're right, you're right, l But it's the parlays,
the teasers, the crazy shit.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
They could cash more tickets than they trash, but they
find a way of losing money. That's the problem.
Speaker 1 (18:50):
Bad risk management, bingo, bad risk management. That's one of
the things we're trying to do here on bat On
It wager talk dot Com. We're trying to make you
guys better betters. Hopefully this play helps to become a
better better. As I mentioned, I have the Dallas Cowboys
last week, they looked awful very early on, and then
here come the Cowboys and let the Eagles pewball over
(19:11):
themselves in the second half. And that's basically what the
Colts did at Arrowhead last week. They blew an eleven
point lead, four straight three and outs and Daniel Jones
eight of eighteen for eighty three yards in the second half.
Did Daniel Jones turn into a pumpkin. Maybe we're gonna
find out this weekend, but I do like the Houston
Texans catching over a field goal into Indianapolis. CJ Stroud
(19:36):
returning this week, if you guys remember he did have
that concussion against the Broncos. But whether it's Davis Mills
or CJ. Stroud, it doesn't matter. Davis Mills got Houston
three straight wins, including that Thursday night home win over
the Buffalo Bill, So this team has extra rest to
prep for a series that they've won three straight in
(19:58):
and it's been very closely contested over the last three seasons.
Since twenty twenty two, they had a tie, a game
decided by one John Murray games, do Land one, one
game decided by two PREZ games do Land two, and
one game decided by the most important number in the NFL,
that is three points. Only one of those has been
decided by four points, which still gets us within the
(20:22):
cover here with Houston. But I think Houston has the
ability here to win the football game again Indianapolis coming
off that road overtime loss in Kansas City, Jonathan Taylor
was held to just fifty eight rushing yards. I like
this Houston defense. I think that they are going to
come to play. So give me the plus four and
(20:44):
a half and give me a sprinkle on that money line.
Marco DiAngelo, We've been sprinkling all season long in the
Deli thirty seven and twenty two on the season. You
and VR agree here you're both going against my Denver Broncos.
Speaker 4 (21:04):
Yeah, Kelly, and you know, sorry for doubling up on
a game, but it's in a different category. And remember
we lost four NFL games on Thursday and Friday, so
we had to come up with it. And this is
a play I really like. On paper, it looks ugly
as hell to take Washington, but you've got to trust
the process. And the process for me is how many
(21:26):
times do I tell you about bye weeks. Both teams
are coming off a bye, but I always tell you
if you go into a buye on a winning note,
and I think winning eight in a row would qualify,
it's a momentum stopper, I feel. And if you go
into the bye week on a bad note, Washington's lost
(21:48):
six in a row, You're gonna use that time and
make adjustments, make changes, fix what's wrong. That means I'm
gonna look at Washington in this game go back to Denver.
Though not only are they going into the buy, they
went into that buy fat and sassy. Not because they
won eight in a row, because the last game that
(22:11):
they played was against Kansas City and winning that game
gave them an absolute stranglehold on the AFC West. They
got a two game lead over the Chargers, who right
now are up and down. And the team that you
still fear the most even though they were in third
(22:32):
place was the Kansas City Chiefs. You now have a
three and a half game lead. Talk about being fat
and sassy and sitting around patting yourself on the back
for two weeks and reading your press clippings. I am
going to look for Washington at home in a primetime game.
And what do I always tell you teams that are
(22:54):
dismal one the season? And it's been a nightmare of
a season for Washington because there was such high hope's
in Washington year two with Jaden Daniels after his rookie campaign,
the run that they made in the playoffs last year.
To be sitting where they are, why would they come
to play?
Speaker 3 (23:11):
Well?
Speaker 4 (23:11):
What do I tell you teams that don't have anything
to play? For what are the two times they're gonna play.
They're gonna play a division game where they can play spoiler,
or it's gonna be a standalone primetime game. There's another
part of trust the process. Everything adds up for me
to take Washington plus the points I'll take them. Don't
(23:32):
be surprised if they win this game. Out right, Kelly,
I'll have a little one of sprinkle as well for sure.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Ooh, all right, maybe I need to start looking towards Washington.
If both of you guys like it, and if both
of these guys like to play. It's done very well
here on Better not only the NFL edition, but the
college football edition as well. They've also done really well
on their best bets there. I'm gonna let you go first,
but let me know what's going on over at wager
talk dot com before you get into this week's best bet.
Speaker 3 (24:01):
Yeah. Like I said, I'm really excited about this weekend,
even being here as long as I have. There's a
couple times of the year, super Bowl, the first four
days of March, Madness, Thanksgiving weekend because of all the
action and just the nostalgia growing up in it, and
there's just so much betting value. I'll have my college
(24:22):
football package off, my NFL package up five percents coming
this week. I already gave you in college football five
percent on bed on it and yeah, college basketball throughout
the week, NBA and bowl games coming up ahead. It's
just a really good time to jump on board. But
again over the next couple of days, we will be
(24:43):
firing NFL and college football.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
Make sure you jump on board.
Speaker 3 (24:48):
Up over one hundred units in college football and doing
well in NFL as well. Right now on the show
twenty two thirteen and one in the NFL plus percent.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
I'll take it and for my best bet.
Speaker 3 (25:03):
Till I gotta do it. This I released through subscribers,
and I did my job. This is what I get
paid for. This is what they pay me for. I
got them down on Cleveland plus seven all right over
the forty nine ers. Why because I was very confident
that that line was going to drop. In fact, so
confident that I told them at six and a half
(25:25):
by the half a point up the minus one twenty five.
Because I already had that real strong feeling we probably
could have paid one thirty for it because it was
going to get down this low. I didn't think it
would get down to as low as four and a half,
which some shops it got.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
To before it bounced back a little bit.
Speaker 3 (25:44):
And here's why the market overreacted and the wise guys
overreacted as well. To Sanders's first game when he came
in against Baltimore, sixteen attempts for completions pass the rating
of thirteen point five.
Speaker 2 (25:58):
Okay, so the.
Speaker 3 (25:59):
Market's going to overreact to what they saw last They
made the Raiders favored, all right, the worst team in
the NFL. Not only did they make the Raiders favored,
but myself and a lot of other so called plus
ev betters push that lineup on the Raiders, steaming them.
And what happened. Sanders goes out there eighty seven point
(26:19):
one rating and twenty of eleven passing, not bad, one interception,
one touchdown. They get the job done. They win by
two touchdowns.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
As dogs.
Speaker 3 (26:29):
Usually I would want to back off them here, you
would think, Okay, now there's going to be that overreaction.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
Not the case.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
Why because you have the San Francisco forty nine ers
come into town who just look phenomenal on National TV
on Monday night, shutting down Carolina who If you remember,
Carolina was getting some money on Monday night, so there
were betters that had to sit through that watching San
(26:57):
Francisco getting that cover. When I look at the Niners,
you look at their splits, they appear to be better
on the road than at home. That doesn't make any
sense at all. They should regress more towards the mean.
Their home record should be better than their road record.
Then I look at the splits for Cleveland. This is
(27:19):
where I want to back them, right at home, where
they've won double the amount of games and lost less
than they have on the road. I look at also
cleveland tough strength of schedule, top ten strength of schedule,
tougher than San Francisco's, and have a top fifteen defense.
When I'm catching points at home, that's what I want,
(27:40):
a defense that could keep me in the game. You
look over the last two weeks, Cleveland continues to give
us effort. In fact, over the last three weeks they
haven't been outscored by more than one score. I just
think this is too many points for San Francisco coming
off back to back meaningful games. Now going to Cleveland
(28:02):
out a conference, I think they get caught here. Probably
will squeeze out a field goal win, but don't be
surprised if Cleveland catches them again. San Francisco top fifteen offense,
top fifteen defense, Respectable strength of schedule, but starting to
get a little bit too much hype the narratives starting
(28:23):
to outpace their actual production. And when that's the case,
I see value on the dog. So I'm gonna take
Cleveland still at this adjusted number from what we got
down on as the best bet.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
All right, Marco has been giving you guys team totals,
and you guys have been complaining about it in the
comments section, So guess what he's gonna do this week, Marco,
before you give out your team total, please let everybody
know what is going on over at wager talk dot
com this week.
Speaker 4 (28:56):
All right, well, it's Thanksgiving week and we got a
Thanksgiving special for every buddy. The Weekend Warrior is still available.
You guys love that. It's our biggest selling product every weekend,
and why not. You get your favorite handicappers. College and
NFL football plays Saturday and Sunday, and if they have
a Monday night play you get it as well, all
(29:18):
for forty nine dollars. But this week why do that.
There's football every day. You got football Thursday through Monday,
but not only football, you got all kinds of basketball,
hockey seven days this week, only six seven, just sixty
seven dollars. You can get seven day subscription all plays
(29:39):
from your favorite handicapper and that includes if they have
any five percent plays. Those five percent plays sell for
thirty five dollars themselves, that's half of the subscription. And
this week I've got a five percent play going. My
five percent plays have been on a roll. We have
gone with those plays thirty eight and sixteen after last
(30:00):
week's winner on TCU, So head on over to wager Talk,
jump on board. And not only are we winning in football,
but over the last twenty seven days, forty one and
twenty one for our clients, for our profit of over
fifty two hundred dollars, and we're keep it rolling. And
(30:21):
speaking of rolling, let's keep these team totals rolling. And
it's been a simple formula that has worked what I've
done with these and we're going for four in a
row on these team totals. The recipe for success is this,
we find a good offense that's coming off a loss,
that's facing a team with a mediocre to bad defense,
(30:44):
and this week that team is the Buffalo Bills. They're
coming off of awesome Thursday Night football. They have a
good offense, and they're facing my Pittsburgh Steelers that has
been torched by good passing teams. Throw in, Buffalo's had
three extra days to prepare gives them an added edge.
Pittsburgh is supposed to have Aaron Rodgers back this week.
(31:08):
That would make you think that Pittsburgh would be able
to move the ball better than he did last week
against Chicago. So if Pittsburgh is moving the football, that
means Buffalo's got to keep moving the football to answer scores.
So Buffalo won't take their foot off the gas. Buffalo
the offense has been their own worst enemy in the
(31:31):
last couple losses. They've turned the ball over nine times
in the last three games. But they're not facing a
tenacious defense this week. Last week they faced Houston's defense,
one of the better defenses in the NFL. Pittsburgh's is not.
I see Buffalo getting thirty four or more points in
this one. I'm seeing a team total of twenty six
(31:53):
and a half. There's only one way I can go
with this one, and it is Buffalo team total over.
And if you're worried about weather conditions or whatever in Pittsburgh,
this is Buffalo. There is at worst weather conditions than
a team ever plays in than in Buffalo, So don't
worry about any cold weather, windy or anything like that.
(32:14):
It'll be okay. Let's take over team total for Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (32:19):
All right. I've been absolutely getting my ass kicked on
these best bets, so this week I'm just going to
try not to overthink it. We're just gonna go with it,
and we're going to bet against the worst power rated
team in the league. I said last week, who went
the lay points with the Las Vegas Raiders? And the
Raiders did what the Raiders do and they sucked once again.
(32:41):
Gino Smith sacked ten times. The offensive line is beyond
banged up. Their last and EPA per play number thirtieth
in success rate number twenty ninth in EPA per drop back,
and last in EPA per rush attempt. Outside of Max Crosby,
I think this Raiders team has shown zero signs of
(33:02):
being a competent football team, at least since the Bears game.
That was about the time it looked like they mailed
it in. So what did they do after losing their
fifth straight game last week as a three and a
half point home favor. Oh cool, they fired Chip Kelly
and Bob Bicknell. Pete Carroll has lost five straight games
for the first time since he was the head coach
(33:25):
for the nineteen ninety four Jets. The Raiders have a
two to nine or worst start in consecutive seasons for
just the second time in franchise history. This team is down,
and they are down bad, averaging thirteen points per game
against John Harbaugh's defense. The best part about the Los
Angeles Chargers They're coming off a buy and had lost
(33:47):
at Jacksonville before then. They've now had time to fix
some of those offensive line injuries, and I think getting
that team ready to play a big time divisional game. Harball,
you know what he does in these divisional games, That's right.
He puts his foot on the gas. And that's why
I don't mind laying nine and a half here. I
(34:07):
know VR says the spread is the great equalizer, but
I do not see this Raiders team keeping this even
remotely close. I think this is an absolute nutter boat
raced by the Chargers. I know I said I was
gonna use thinking about using the Rams and Survivor. I'm
using the Chargers and all of my Survivor plays this week.
Give me the Chargers minus nine and a half as
(34:28):
my best bet for NFL Week thirteen, Marco VR, let's
hope that I can turn that around. I think I'm
one and six.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
My last seven pressure on yourself label best bet.
Speaker 1 (34:44):
I know, but the Barking Dogs have just I'm looking
for our right underdogs and they just like to win
out right. So now I'm just gonna be a chalk
eating weasel and see how that works out for me.
Thank you to both of you, guys. I hope you
have a wonderful weekend everyone with your friends and family.
You guys did miss those Thanksgiving games. They're going to
be right here Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Of course, we've
(35:07):
got the Mega show College football NFL. I think they're
going to have to Thanksgiving games. I'm not sure.
NFL Week thirteen sands the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games.
Those are in another video if you guys missed that
over the wager Talk YouTube channel. But we're still gonna
go over Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football. We've got
the Steam report from VR, We've got the Deli from Marco.
Those barking dogs keep on cash and outright, and that
(00:21):
is the name of the game. My best bets, not
so much Marco and VR, though they've been making you
guys money all season long. Right up next here on
bet on It Happy Thanksgiving. That is a different video,
(00:50):
as I alluded to, But I'm assuming you guys are
watching this as your regularly scheduled program. Make sure you
guys spend some time with your friends and family. You
damn degenerate. Yes, I will not be. I will be
watching NFL and probably on end Zone live with the
Press hating my life as he goes on some crazy rants.
So we'll see you guys over there. Last call on
(01:12):
Saturday with me and VR. If you guys are looking
for college football, that is a different video as well.
But this is the thirteenth week of the NFL season.
Marco DiAngelo, Yanni corrals, and we're going to get right
in to bet on It with Sunday Night Football. My
Denver Broncos six and a half point road favorites at
(01:33):
the Washington Commanders total forty three and a half't we
talk a lot about fraudulent teams here on bet on It.
Marco gave out one for Black Friday. Whoopsie. That being said,
are the Denver Broncos fraudulent? I kind of think they
might be.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
Well, here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
They're winning. They got only two losses. Call they're nine
and two football team, but they're not getting it done
by margin, and that's the difference. And when you're winning
by seven eight to three games and six of those
are by three or four points or less, it could
have gone the other way for you. And when you
(02:12):
dig into the data, there's teams that are have a
worst record that would be favored over them.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
And what I mean by that is like.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
Kansas City, Baltimore, Houston. Those are teams that are six
and five, seven and four Detroit, seven and four, Buffalo,
They would all be favored over a nine and two Denver.
And the reason for it is Denver's had a very easy.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Strength of schedule.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
In fact, only four teams in all the NFL have
had an easier strength of schedule than Denver. And yet
even with that easy strength of schedule, they don't even
have a top twenty offense. In efficiency, they're in the
bottom ten offensively. It's the defensive side of the ball
that's impressive for Denver, where they're top five, but once
(03:01):
again it's with one of the easiest schedules in.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
All of the NFL.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
That's why how much you know stock can you really
put even in that defense.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Now, on the flip side, you look at Washington.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
They've had a much tougher strength of schedule than Denver,
has nothing to really brag about. Not impressive, I mean,
twenty second offense, barely bottom five defensively. Statistically, again, nothing
sexy about Washington. So it isn't really where I'm saying
(03:34):
I have a bet on Washington. Instead, I'm looking at
a fade of Denver and I haven't gotten into the
window with This is a disclaimer. It's the TV game
I was given and it's just if I had to
bet it. I just think that the line's a little
bit too high because you look at the splits Denver's
been a powerhouse at home where they haven't lost a
single game.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
They're only three and two on the road.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
You look at Washington, They've won two x the amount
of home games as they have on the road. So
I like to split there. I like the fact that
Denver's coming off a huge, huge divisional win against Kansas
City after beating the Raiders another divisional win. But let's
(04:17):
not forget they were eight and a half point favorite
against the Raiders, and that's what happens to a team
that's not elite. They get caught looking ahead and you
saw what happened. They only beat the Raiders by three points.
Why because they had Kansas City on deck. That's what
you would expect from a team that isn't dominant, and
at nine and two, you should be dominant, and that's
just not what Denver is. So back to this game,
(04:41):
That's why I wouldn't be comfortable laying a touchdown on
the road, because you got to be dominant to do that.
You have to have offense to do that. Because you're
talking about winning by double digits, and with Washington not
having covered sixth straight games, seven straight games. Now, I
think that the markets going looking at a correction.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
They're getting a little more points than they should. Denver's
given more points than they should. We're getting a little
bit of line value. Best you could ever hope for
give me Washington plus the points.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
Yeah, I considered that side as well, maybe at least
in a couple of my contest picks. Mark, I'm curious
to see who you like on Monday Night football, the
New York Giants seven and a half point underdogs at
New England. Is New England a fraudulent team?
Speaker 4 (05:28):
I don't think so, Kelly, and you know the New
York Giants. You know, let's you know, it's Thanksgiving. What
are you gonna be thankful for? Let's be thankful for
Jameis Winston because he's gonna entertain us for at least
a couple games every year. And he did last Sunday.
I don't know if you saw the touchdown past lot.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
In the movie he made to get into the end zone.
Speaker 4 (05:52):
That was fun, But the knee jerk reaction if you
look at the Giants after what they did last week,
go into Detroit fourteen point underdogs. They had that game one.
Detroit had to hit a long field goal at the
end of the game to send it to overtime, and
then they won it in overtime. We also see that
(06:14):
the Lions. Did they get caught looking ahead last week?
And I'm kicking myself because that was a big sandwich spot.
But I thought coming off of a loss they would
be better focused. But face it, they came off a
Sunday night football game against Philadelphia the week before, and
they had that game on Thanksgiving Day with Green Bay.
(06:37):
So the Giants win or narrow loss looks better than
it actually was. And what do I tell you teams
that have a big effort and come up just short,
that is the poster child for lose the same game twice.
And we've got New England that's coming home here. Did
(06:58):
they look past since last week? Possibly there was a
lot of buzz that Joe Burrow was gonna play last
week and then he didn't. Did they overlook them? Were
they looking ahead to Monday Night football? New England's not
been on Monday Night football for a while, you know,
since the days of Tampa Bay, or excuse me, since
Tom Brady before he went to Tampa Bay. They were
(07:21):
a regular fixture on primetime games. This is a statement
game for them. I think they were looking ahead last week,
and I think you're gonna see this team who is
good on both sides of the football. Drake May far
and away the best second year quarterback in the NFL
this year. He has made the most progress, even over
(07:41):
Caleb Williams in Chicago. The defense for New England is solid.
I don't see the Giants being able to move the
football this week against New England the way they did
against Detroit. We know Detroit has their problems defensively, and
for England, they'll have no problem moving against this Giant's defense.
(08:04):
Let's go ahead lay the points here with New England.
I've got them winning by eleven, twenty eight to seventeen.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
All right, guys, this week you can get a free
edition of The gold Sheet. Right here is the website
you want to go to. You guys are welcome. Happy
Thanksgiving weekend, enjoy the four days with your family. Make
sure you check out VR on Sunday with Ariel Epstein.
He's going to give you the Steam Report here on Wednesdays, though,
(08:33):
we give you a little preview so that we can
codify it come Sunday.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
Yeah, little taste a little bit of the early action.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
Keep in mind some of the biggest days ahead for
Sharps with Better's home for the holidays, all from work, drinking, eating,
standalone games on TV rest ashore, a lot of money's
being wager, and money moves lines just like res does,
(09:01):
so the Sharps no to stick around. Some of these
lines will be knocked out of whack come game day
and they're there to pounce, So make sure you're there
for Last Call and steam room as well. Now, let's
look at some of the games that got hit early on.
Start with four sixty six Tennessee plus seven and a
half and seven. I'll talk about them a little bit later.
(09:23):
For sixty seven La Rams minus nine, nine and a
half and ten, and they went under forty six and
a half, just hit once that opener. For seventy Miami
minus five and five and a half, four seventy one
Atlanta look Ahead one got hit, then two got hit
as well. Cleveland plus seven Juice plus six and a
(09:46):
half plus six plus five and a half. When it
got down the four to four and a half, that's
when you saw the San Francisco money start coming in.
NFL lines are really tight, I thought you'd see some
resistance prior to that, but it shows you a lot
of steam on Cleveland and the under the look ahead
was forty and a half. You're now looking at thirty
(10:06):
six limit bets all the way down at half point
increments four to seventy six. Seattle minus seven was the
look ahead. You're now looking at double digits. Another one
that they didn't go straight the teaser protection. Instead they
were getting limit bet hit up half point increments, much
different situation. Finally, for eighty LA minus eight and a
(10:30):
half and nine, that's when you saw raider money at ten.
They took the ten when it got there, so the
books know if they get too heavy, they know where
they could get some that risk offloaded if they go
to ten with LA chargers. Keep your eye on that number.
And they also went under forty three and a half
look ahead forty two and a half and forty one
(10:53):
and a half, So a lot of under money there.
That's the steam report as of Wednesday morning. All right, thanks,
and then enjoyed the weekend too. Hope you make some money.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
Yeah, that is the plan. We want to make some money,
eat some food, and enjoy this feast week Marco D'Angelo
by far our best segment as a whole, because I've
been bringing down the averages in the bass bet department.
The Barking Dogs have been awesome. Last week's Barking Dogs
great once again. This week got me a little nervous
(11:25):
here because I'm considering using the other side of this
one in Survivor.
Speaker 4 (11:31):
Yeah, Kelly, and you know what last week and this
is a good question for Ace. You know, we talk
about in the NFL, the old adage has been if
you pick the winner, you picked the point spread winner.
I've been doing this a long long time, guys, you know,
forty six years. I don't remember a Sunday in the
NFL like last Sunday where there was as many teams
(11:56):
win but not yeah, yeah, yeah. The point spread came
into play last week. And you know, I talked to
you know on Monday with you know, Chuck Esposito from
Station's Casinos here in Vegas, and you know we'll ask
John Murray that same question. I don't remember it ever happening.
And I need you're going to see of an adjustment,
(12:16):
you know, from the books with the lines, so maybe
there will be some value with some of these favorites
this week, but this is one I don't think so,
because is there a team in the NFL right now
that the stock is any higher than the La Rams.
Everybody is in love with them. That is their super
Bowl team from the NFC, because we've seen the other
(12:38):
candidates take steps backwards. Philadelphia losing last week, we saw
Detroit lose some games recently. Nobody has taken that forefront
that is the Rams to lose. I think it's too
much public perception has them. They've coming off three big
wins in a row. You look what they've done. Go
(13:01):
back three weeks ago they played the forty nine ers.
That was a huge revenge game for them. It was
a key division game and if you remember they lost
that first meeting that Thursday night game when the forty
nine ers were decimated with injuries and somehow the forty
nine ers beat them. That was a big game. Then
two weeks ago they played Seattle. That was a battle
(13:23):
for first place. The two were tied. They got to
win twenty one to nineteen in that game. It's a
misleading final because Seattle actually outgained them four fourteen to
two forty nine. And then last week where some people,
and I was one of them, thought maybe that's where
they come back to earth. Well, it was a Sunday
night primetime game and they showed up. They showed up
(13:45):
in a big way. They demolished Tampa Bay thirty four
to seven. So now is anybody gonna want to step
in front of them? No, And that's why you're seeing
this line as high as it is and seeing it
creep over the mark ten point mark. John Q. Public
watched that game Sunday night. They also watched a Monday
night game and saw Carolina lose to San Francisco. And
(14:09):
we've talked about this before. You've got I call it
the ABC theory. The public's gonna look and see that
Carolina just lost to San Francisco. They're also gonna look
and see the Rams, just a couple of weeks ago
beat San Francisco. So if the forty nine ers can
beat Carolina and the Rams can beat San Francisco, this
is a no brainer. Right, Carolina gets blown out. No,
(14:33):
that's not the way it works. In handicapping, Rams are
filling fat and sass either traveling east to play a
Carolina team. That's gonna be very easy to look past.
They've got a division game against Arizona next week, then
followed by two key NFC games against Detroit and Seattle.
(14:54):
This is absolutely the flat spot on their card, their schedule,
and you're laying in inflated number in a potential trap.
I'm gonna go ahead and take Carolina plus the points
here Rams get a score. As VR says, I don't
know if they're gonna be able to get the outright upset,
but I will have just a little sprinkle. Remember when
(15:16):
we gave you Carolina in a spot similar to this
against the Green Bay Packers, and what happened?
Speaker 1 (15:23):
Victory out That's right, twelve and a half point road underdogs.
They sure did all right. I'm gonna be looking for
a new survivor. Pick VR. You like arguably one of
the worst teams in the NFL. I don't know if
they're the worst. Are they the worst in your power ratings?
Speaker 2 (15:42):
Second worst? Second worst? Raiders are the worst?
Speaker 3 (15:45):
Raiders are the worst, They're the second worst as the
Tennessee tone. But the point spread is the great equalizer.
We know that, and that's why a team like Tennessee
that's one in ten straight up is five and six
against the spread not that Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
One game below five hundred.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
So they do a really good job in the NFL
of pricing these teams, where even arguably the worst team
in the NFL, if you've been fading them all year,
unless you got down in good numbers, you've made very
little money doing it. That's the bottom line. And here's
the one thing I'm going to tell you about Tennessee. Again,
there's not all that to defend when offensively and defensively,
(16:23):
there's only two or three teams worsting you statistically see
there are teams worse than them offensively and defensively. Okay,
with that said, they've had the number one toughest schedule,
so teams that have had easier schedules have had have
worse stats offensively and worse stats defensively that had had
an easier go of it. This week, they're facing a
(16:46):
defense in Jacksonville that's in the bottom eight in the NFL,
and even their offense is mid tier, they're barely cracking
top sixteen. So they're not going up against like a
juggernaut in Jacksonville this week. And with Tennessee, they've shown
a lot of effort. Look over the last three weeks. Yeah,
(17:09):
they've lost those games all by one score, and they
covered all three of those. That's a team that's giving
you some effort down the stretch. And do they have
something to play for over those last three games? Yes,
they were home games. They haven't won at home yet
this season. They want to get that monkey off their back.
(17:31):
I think they're gonna give us effort again, especially against
a division opponent in Jacksonville who's.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Owned them of late.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
I mean, Jacksonville has won five of the last six.
But again, when you look at Jacksonville not winning by
margin only one week that was against the Chargers. If
you look over their last five wins, okay, only one
time have they won by more than a score. So again,
(17:59):
even they're getting w's, they're not doing it with margin.
And to cover double seven point spread, that's what you
need to do. This one I did send out to subscribers.
I'm on Tennessee. We took them at a touchdown plus seven.
I would buy it up, lay up the one twenty
five at six and a half, but I think the
(18:20):
public is gonna bet it up for you anyway. You
should be able to get some sevens on them game day.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
Yeah, you mentioned, there's gonna be a ton of public
getting involved.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
No disrespect.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
They'll be chasing by Sunday what they lost Thursday, Friday
and Saturday.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
I don't know if they're gonna lose Thursday Friday because
guess what, it has been really chalky.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
Like, yeah, you're right, you're right, l But it's the parlays,
the teasers, the crazy shit.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
They could cash more tickets than they trash, but they
find a way of losing money. That's the problem.
Speaker 1 (18:50):
Bad risk management, bingo, bad risk management. That's one of
the things we're trying to do here on bat On
It wager talk dot Com. We're trying to make you
guys better betters. Hopefully this play helps to become a
better better. As I mentioned, I have the Dallas Cowboys
last week, they looked awful very early on, and then
here come the Cowboys and let the Eagles pewball over
(19:11):
themselves in the second half. And that's basically what the
Colts did at Arrowhead last week. They blew an eleven
point lead, four straight three and outs and Daniel Jones
eight of eighteen for eighty three yards in the second half.
Did Daniel Jones turn into a pumpkin. Maybe we're gonna
find out this weekend, but I do like the Houston
Texans catching over a field goal into Indianapolis. CJ Stroud
(19:36):
returning this week, if you guys remember he did have
that concussion against the Broncos. But whether it's Davis Mills
or CJ. Stroud, it doesn't matter. Davis Mills got Houston
three straight wins, including that Thursday night home win over
the Buffalo Bill, So this team has extra rest to
prep for a series that they've won three straight in
(19:58):
and it's been very closely contested over the last three seasons.
Since twenty twenty two, they had a tie, a game
decided by one John Murray games, do Land one, one
game decided by two PREZ games do Land two, and
one game decided by the most important number in the NFL,
that is three points. Only one of those has been
decided by four points, which still gets us within the
(20:22):
cover here with Houston. But I think Houston has the
ability here to win the football game again Indianapolis coming
off that road overtime loss in Kansas City, Jonathan Taylor
was held to just fifty eight rushing yards. I like
this Houston defense. I think that they are going to
come to play. So give me the plus four and
(20:44):
a half and give me a sprinkle on that money line.
Marco DiAngelo, We've been sprinkling all season long in the
Deli thirty seven and twenty two on the season. You
and VR agree here you're both going against my Denver Broncos.
Speaker 4 (21:04):
Yeah, Kelly, and you know, sorry for doubling up on
a game, but it's in a different category. And remember
we lost four NFL games on Thursday and Friday, so
we had to come up with it. And this is
a play I really like. On paper, it looks ugly
as hell to take Washington, but you've got to trust
the process. And the process for me is how many
(21:26):
times do I tell you about bye weeks. Both teams
are coming off a bye, but I always tell you
if you go into a buye on a winning note,
and I think winning eight in a row would qualify,
it's a momentum stopper, I feel. And if you go
into the bye week on a bad note, Washington's lost
(21:48):
six in a row, You're gonna use that time and
make adjustments, make changes, fix what's wrong. That means I'm
gonna look at Washington in this game go back to Denver.
Though not only are they going into the buy, they
went into that buy fat and sassy. Not because they
won eight in a row, because the last game that
(22:11):
they played was against Kansas City and winning that game
gave them an absolute stranglehold on the AFC West. They
got a two game lead over the Chargers, who right
now are up and down. And the team that you
still fear the most even though they were in third
(22:32):
place was the Kansas City Chiefs. You now have a
three and a half game lead. Talk about being fat
and sassy and sitting around patting yourself on the back
for two weeks and reading your press clippings. I am
going to look for Washington at home in a primetime game.
And what do I always tell you teams that are
(22:54):
dismal one the season? And it's been a nightmare of
a season for Washington because there was such high hope's
in Washington year two with Jaden Daniels after his rookie campaign,
the run that they made in the playoffs last year.
To be sitting where they are, why would they come
to play?
Speaker 3 (23:11):
Well?
Speaker 4 (23:11):
What do I tell you teams that don't have anything
to play? For what are the two times they're gonna play.
They're gonna play a division game where they can play spoiler,
or it's gonna be a standalone primetime game. There's another
part of trust the process. Everything adds up for me
to take Washington plus the points I'll take them. Don't
(23:32):
be surprised if they win this game. Out right, Kelly,
I'll have a little one of sprinkle as well for sure.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Ooh, all right, maybe I need to start looking towards Washington.
If both of you guys like it, and if both
of these guys like to play. It's done very well
here on Better not only the NFL edition, but the
college football edition as well. They've also done really well
on their best bets there. I'm gonna let you go first,
but let me know what's going on over at wager
talk dot com before you get into this week's best bet.
Speaker 3 (24:01):
Yeah. Like I said, I'm really excited about this weekend,
even being here as long as I have. There's a
couple times of the year, super Bowl, the first four
days of March, Madness, Thanksgiving weekend because of all the
action and just the nostalgia growing up in it, and
there's just so much betting value. I'll have my college
(24:22):
football package off, my NFL package up five percents coming
this week. I already gave you in college football five
percent on bed on it and yeah, college basketball throughout
the week, NBA and bowl games coming up ahead. It's
just a really good time to jump on board. But
again over the next couple of days, we will be
(24:43):
firing NFL and college football.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
Make sure you jump on board.
Speaker 3 (24:48):
Up over one hundred units in college football and doing
well in NFL as well. Right now on the show
twenty two thirteen and one in the NFL plus percent.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
I'll take it and for my best bet.
Speaker 3 (25:03):
Till I gotta do it. This I released through subscribers,
and I did my job. This is what I get
paid for. This is what they pay me for. I
got them down on Cleveland plus seven all right over
the forty nine ers. Why because I was very confident
that that line was going to drop. In fact, so
confident that I told them at six and a half
(25:25):
by the half a point up the minus one twenty five.
Because I already had that real strong feeling we probably
could have paid one thirty for it because it was
going to get down this low. I didn't think it
would get down to as low as four and a half,
which some shops it got.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
To before it bounced back a little bit.
Speaker 3 (25:44):
And here's why the market overreacted and the wise guys
overreacted as well. To Sanders's first game when he came
in against Baltimore, sixteen attempts for completions pass the rating
of thirteen point five.
Speaker 2 (25:58):
Okay, so the.
Speaker 3 (25:59):
Market's going to overreact to what they saw last They
made the Raiders favored, all right, the worst team in
the NFL. Not only did they make the Raiders favored,
but myself and a lot of other so called plus
ev betters push that lineup on the Raiders, steaming them.
And what happened. Sanders goes out there eighty seven point
(26:19):
one rating and twenty of eleven passing, not bad, one interception,
one touchdown. They get the job done. They win by
two touchdowns.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
As dogs.
Speaker 3 (26:29):
Usually I would want to back off them here, you
would think, Okay, now there's going to be that overreaction.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
Not the case.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
Why because you have the San Francisco forty nine ers
come into town who just look phenomenal on National TV
on Monday night, shutting down Carolina who If you remember,
Carolina was getting some money on Monday night, so there
were betters that had to sit through that watching San
(26:57):
Francisco getting that cover. When I look at the Niners,
you look at their splits, they appear to be better
on the road than at home. That doesn't make any
sense at all. They should regress more towards the mean.
Their home record should be better than their road record.
Then I look at the splits for Cleveland. This is
(27:19):
where I want to back them, right at home, where
they've won double the amount of games and lost less
than they have on the road. I look at also
cleveland tough strength of schedule, top ten strength of schedule,
tougher than San Francisco's, and have a top fifteen defense.
When I'm catching points at home, that's what I want,
(27:40):
a defense that could keep me in the game. You
look over the last two weeks, Cleveland continues to give
us effort. In fact, over the last three weeks they
haven't been outscored by more than one score. I just
think this is too many points for San Francisco coming
off back to back meaningful games. Now going to Cleveland
(28:02):
out a conference, I think they get caught here. Probably
will squeeze out a field goal win, but don't be
surprised if Cleveland catches them again. San Francisco top fifteen offense,
top fifteen defense, Respectable strength of schedule, but starting to
get a little bit too much hype the narratives starting
(28:23):
to outpace their actual production. And when that's the case,
I see value on the dog. So I'm gonna take
Cleveland still at this adjusted number from what we got
down on as the best bet.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
All right, Marco has been giving you guys team totals,
and you guys have been complaining about it in the
comments section, So guess what he's gonna do this week, Marco,
before you give out your team total, please let everybody
know what is going on over at wager talk dot
com this week.
Speaker 4 (28:56):
All right, well, it's Thanksgiving week and we got a
Thanksgiving special for every buddy. The Weekend Warrior is still available.
You guys love that. It's our biggest selling product every weekend,
and why not. You get your favorite handicappers. College and
NFL football plays Saturday and Sunday, and if they have
a Monday night play you get it as well, all
(29:18):
for forty nine dollars. But this week why do that.
There's football every day. You got football Thursday through Monday,
but not only football, you got all kinds of basketball,
hockey seven days this week, only six seven, just sixty
seven dollars. You can get seven day subscription all plays
(29:39):
from your favorite handicapper and that includes if they have
any five percent plays. Those five percent plays sell for
thirty five dollars themselves, that's half of the subscription. And
this week I've got a five percent play going. My
five percent plays have been on a roll. We have
gone with those plays thirty eight and sixteen after last
(30:00):
week's winner on TCU, So head on over to wager Talk,
jump on board. And not only are we winning in football,
but over the last twenty seven days, forty one and
twenty one for our clients, for our profit of over
fifty two hundred dollars, and we're keep it rolling. And
(30:21):
speaking of rolling, let's keep these team totals rolling. And
it's been a simple formula that has worked what I've
done with these and we're going for four in a
row on these team totals. The recipe for success is this,
we find a good offense that's coming off a loss,
that's facing a team with a mediocre to bad defense,
(30:44):
and this week that team is the Buffalo Bills. They're
coming off of awesome Thursday Night football. They have a
good offense, and they're facing my Pittsburgh Steelers that has
been torched by good passing teams. Throw in, Buffalo's had
three extra days to prepare gives them an added edge.
Pittsburgh is supposed to have Aaron Rodgers back this week.
(31:08):
That would make you think that Pittsburgh would be able
to move the ball better than he did last week
against Chicago. So if Pittsburgh is moving the football, that
means Buffalo's got to keep moving the football to answer scores.
So Buffalo won't take their foot off the gas. Buffalo
the offense has been their own worst enemy in the
(31:31):
last couple losses. They've turned the ball over nine times
in the last three games. But they're not facing a
tenacious defense this week. Last week they faced Houston's defense,
one of the better defenses in the NFL. Pittsburgh's is not.
I see Buffalo getting thirty four or more points in
this one. I'm seeing a team total of twenty six
(31:53):
and a half. There's only one way I can go
with this one, and it is Buffalo team total over.
And if you're worried about weather conditions or whatever in Pittsburgh,
this is Buffalo. There is at worst weather conditions than
a team ever plays in than in Buffalo, So don't
worry about any cold weather, windy or anything like that.
(32:14):
It'll be okay. Let's take over team total for Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (32:19):
All right. I've been absolutely getting my ass kicked on
these best bets, so this week I'm just going to
try not to overthink it. We're just gonna go with it,
and we're going to bet against the worst power rated
team in the league. I said last week, who went
the lay points with the Las Vegas Raiders? And the
Raiders did what the Raiders do and they sucked once again.
(32:41):
Gino Smith sacked ten times. The offensive line is beyond
banged up. Their last and EPA per play number thirtieth
in success rate number twenty ninth in EPA per drop back,
and last in EPA per rush attempt. Outside of Max Crosby,
I think this Raiders team has shown zero signs of
(33:02):
being a competent football team, at least since the Bears game.
That was about the time it looked like they mailed
it in. So what did they do after losing their
fifth straight game last week as a three and a
half point home favor. Oh cool, they fired Chip Kelly
and Bob Bicknell. Pete Carroll has lost five straight games
for the first time since he was the head coach
(33:25):
for the nineteen ninety four Jets. The Raiders have a
two to nine or worst start in consecutive seasons for
just the second time in franchise history. This team is down,
and they are down bad, averaging thirteen points per game
against John Harbaugh's defense. The best part about the Los
Angeles Chargers They're coming off a buy and had lost
(33:47):
at Jacksonville before then. They've now had time to fix
some of those offensive line injuries, and I think getting
that team ready to play a big time divisional game. Harball,
you know what he does in these divisional games, That's right.
He puts his foot on the gas. And that's why
I don't mind laying nine and a half here. I
(34:07):
know VR says the spread is the great equalizer, but
I do not see this Raiders team keeping this even
remotely close. I think this is an absolute nutter boat
raced by the Chargers. I know I said I was
gonna use thinking about using the Rams and Survivor. I'm
using the Chargers and all of my Survivor plays this week.
Give me the Chargers minus nine and a half as
(34:28):
my best bet for NFL Week thirteen, Marco VR, let's
hope that I can turn that around. I think I'm
one and six.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
My last seven pressure on yourself label best bet.
Speaker 1 (34:44):
I know, but the Barking Dogs have just I'm looking
for our right underdogs and they just like to win
out right. So now I'm just gonna be a chalk
eating weasel and see how that works out for me.
Thank you to both of you, guys. I hope you
have a wonderful weekend everyone with your friends and family.
You guys did miss those Thanksgiving games. They're going to
be right here Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Of course, we've
(35:07):
got the Mega show College football NFL. I think they're
going to have to Thanksgiving games. I'm not sure.
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