December 10, 2025 • 38 mins
Dive into the heart of NFL betting with our expert panel! Join Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo and Gianni the Greek as they provide in-depth analysis and professional insights on Week 15 NFL games.
Introduction 00:00
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 00:50
Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys 3:12
Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers 5:18
Save HUGE with wt.buzz/ace365 9:00
VR’s Steam Report 10:49
Barking Dogs 12:10
Marco Barko 12:18
VR’s Barking Dog 15:09
Kelly’s Barking Dog 19:30
Marco’s Deli 21:00
Marco’s Sandwich Game of the Week 21:29
Save HUGE with wt.buzz/marco365 25:00
Best Bets 27:40
Gianni’s Best Bet 28:06
Marco’s Best Bet 32:24
KIV’s Best Bet 35:19
NFL Week 15 Picks Recap 37:57
Introduction 00:00
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 00:50
Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys 3:12
Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers 5:18
Save HUGE with wt.buzz/ace365 9:00
VR’s Steam Report 10:49
Barking Dogs 12:10
Marco Barko 12:18
VR’s Barking Dog 15:09
Kelly’s Barking Dog 19:30
Marco’s Deli 21:00
Marco’s Sandwich Game of the Week 21:29
Save HUGE with wt.buzz/marco365 25:00
Best Bets 27:40
Gianni’s Best Bet 28:06
Marco’s Best Bet 32:24
KIV’s Best Bet 35:19
NFL Week 15 Picks Recap 37:57
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
NFL Week fifteen is upon us. We've got those prime
time games, some barking dogs. We're gonna check in with
VR for the Steam report and of course that DELI.
Let's see how Marco did last week. We're gonna follow
it all up with some best bets up next on
bet on It. Welcome into bet on It, Kelly Stewart, here,
(00:34):
Yanni the Greek, Marco D'Angelo. We're gonna get right into
NFL Week fifteen. Marco, you're stuck with this game, mainly
because you picked it, and I don't know why. Thursday
Night Football, Atlanta is a five and a half point
dog at Tampa Bay forty four and a half. How
the Mighty have fallen? This team cost me one of
(00:54):
the legs, it didn't matter. They both lost in my
Survivor pool last week. I am shocked at how poorly
Tampa Bay has played over the last six weeks since
I basically gave Baker Mayfield the MVP trophy.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
You're the one that did it, Kelly. Okay, this is
a spot where you know, at four nine, Atlanta has
nothing to play for it. Let's be honest, and it
showed last week they lost at home to Seattle in
a lifeless effort thirty seven to nine. But I always
point out the teams that are out of it. They're
going to show up for two types of games. They're
(01:30):
going to show up for a division game where they
can play spoiler to a division rival, or when they're
on a primetime TV game, because nobody wants to be embarrassed. Well,
they were embarrassed last week. Now they're on primetime this week,
so they're going to show up for this one. Baker,
as you alluded to, is not played well. He's been
(01:51):
banged up over the last month, and the numbers reflected.
He's gone now four straight games passing for two hundred
or less yards. That's not what we saw in the
beginning of the season with Baker when all of us
were talking about he was a legitimate MVP candidate. Yes,
it's a must win for Tampa Bay, but I really
(02:14):
can't lay points with them right now. They're deadlocked with Carolina,
So yes, it is a must win, but this defense
is getting worn down from Tampa and the reason for
that is the offense can't stay on the field long
enough to give them that balance with time and possession.
We all know the longer your defense is out there,
the worse it's gonna be. And it's starting to wear
(02:35):
on him. They've given up twenty four or more points
now in four of their last five games Tampa Bay.
In their seven wins this season, five of them have
been by three points or less. I'm gonna go ahead,
take the dog that's got nothing to lose here. They're
playing loose, playing, spoiler playing in front of the TV
cameras to a team that's life and death and you
(02:56):
know those teams that need to win Vegas and make
it pay for it. I'll go ahead and take it.
Lanta plus the points here.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Okay, I'm gonna go Sunday Night football. And while I
probably won't get involved in this game, I do feel
like it's kind of interesting. I mentioned that Tampa Bay
ruined my survivor hopes and I was greatly considering taking Minnesota.
Then that line went a little crazy with Jayden Daniels returning,
and while I will stout and boy did Minnesota make
(03:28):
me pay. They looked like the Minnesota team that we
thought they were supposed to be. They snapped a four
game losing streak. JJ McCarthy best game and That's why
I don't know if I really want to play them here.
Right Marco loves to say no team is as bad
as their worst game, and no team is as good
(03:48):
as their best, And so now I want to go Okay,
Dallas looked poor on Thursday night football. They've got extra rest.
Surely I can play them here, But I don't know.
Dallas has been settling for a lot of field goals lately.
I also would probably do the same if I had
Brandon Aubrey, who could kick sixty yards without a doubt.
(04:12):
But that offense coming to a screeching halt is concerning
for me, especially as Minnesota's starts to progress. Now, keep
an eye out Ceedee Lamp. Remember he got hurt again
and that concerns me here if you're looking to lay
points with this team. But I will say this, Dallas's
defense is significantly better than what we saw from Washington,
(04:36):
and that is going to be the difference maker here.
I've got that one circled. Dallas being an underdog now
being a favorite favorite and now asked to win by
a margin is tough for me to get on board with.
I lean Minnesota plus the five and a half six
depending on where you like to shop. And I also
(04:57):
lean the under here. I think this is going to
be a lower score game. So there's a little bit
of a preview on Sunday Night Football on maybe if
I get on board with either one of these, But VR,
I made you pick Monday Night Football, so you're gonna
have to break down this one for me. Miami is
a three and a half point favorite at Pittsburgh forty
(05:17):
two and a half. Talk to me about that Pittsburgh
game last week. Yeah, the Dolphins beat the Jets. That's
what they do. They just beat the Jets. That was
should have been expected. But man, Steelers, is that more
of a testament to how well the Steelers team is
starting to play? Or is it more of a testament
to how poor the Ravens looked? Well?
Speaker 3 (05:37):
Yeah, because if you covered a box score, I don't
think you're gonna walk away with the conclusion that the
Steelers were the better team. I mean, Steelers rushed for
thirty four yards on seventeen carries, compared to over two
hundred yards rushing for Baltimore. Also passing, Steelers pass for
about eighty yards more so in total yard and Steelers
had about three hundred yards compared to over four hundred
(06:00):
for Baltimore. And then you look at even the return yardage.
You look at everything pretty much in favor of Baltimore,
even time of possession. But it was that red zone
efficiency that cost them because they gotten in the red
zone six times and only scored twice. That was the
difference maker. You got to get it done in the
red zone and they also had, you know that one
(06:23):
interception from Lamar Jackson. Now disclaimer, I have not bet
this game. In fact that the plays that I'm releasing
on this week's bet on It, they're not premium plays.
I haven't released two subscribers. They're the leans that I
have heading in right now on bet on It. NFL
twenty five sixteen and one. That's sixty percent. I'll take
it College football and NFL fifty eight twenty seven and
(06:46):
one about seventy percent. So so far, so good. And
here's the lean on this game. I got to look
at the points with Miami because they're the better defense.
I mean, you got a top fifteen defense even though
they had a really soft strength of schedule. That's what
you want when you're getting points. A team that could
keep it close and within margin. And when I look
at the Steelers, they're barely a top twenty offense. They're
(07:08):
barely a top twenty defense. Now testament to them, they've
done so with the top fifteen strength of schedule. But
they're coming off such a big win against Derision rival Baltimore.
Oh and guess what they got Detroit up on deck.
And granted it's not a divisional or even conference game,
but it is the Detroit Lions, followed by divisional games
(07:30):
with Cleveland and Baltimore, So a lot on deck for Pittsburgh.
Don't expect them to overlook it's Monday night, it's a
primetime game. I get it. But I just think this
Steeler team is a little bit overvalued right now. Power
rating wise, I have them barely in the top twenty.
I have them maybe a slot and a half above Miami.
(07:51):
My number I come up with is Steelers on a
neutral field should be about a half point favorite at
the most. I add about one point seventy five for
the Steelers home field advantage. That gets me to about
minus two point twenty five as a favorite. I'm able
to get above that key number of three. That's the
way I'm looking again having gotten to the window, but
based on my power ratings and the matchup right now,
(08:14):
i'd look to grab the three and a half with
the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
All right, we're gonna get right into that steam room, VR,
and we've got a little special just for those here
on bet on it. Marco's going to talk about it
a little bit later, but VR, I want you to
talk about yours and what everybody can do to get
on board. No coupon code needed, WT dot buzz backslash,
ace three six five. Let everybody know what they're going
(08:41):
to get in that one year past normally priced at
nineteen ninety nine now down to eleven eighty eight or
just ninety nine dollars a month to partner up with you.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Yeah, it's like three dollars a day, dude, less than
a cup of coffee for all this information. And that's
exactly what I told Johnny. Now do we figure it
out with the steam sheet. I want even the most
recreational better to get access to the sharpest stuff. So
as a premium subscriber, you're already getting what I'm now
narrowing down. And if you look pretty much number one,
last seven, last thirty number one in college football. Since
(09:14):
narrowing down those premiums, I'm very confident in what those
results are going to be over the next twelve months.
But also you get the steamshet with it every day,
which is all the moves that I got down on
for the groups I work with and ones that I
trade with, and you may see that there's still value
on the board. They may agree with your leans that
(09:35):
you can still get down on that. I haven't released
this premium, but you still have access to all that information.
NFL college football, NBA college basketball, NHL tennis, I've put
handball in there, I've put women's basketball. Like any sharp stuff,
winning stuff, you get that. And again I'm looking for
(09:55):
guys that want to partner over the next twelve months
and do it right. Each week you get a steam
room that's four a month. Only one is free, so
you get the other three that no one else gets.
And in those steam rooms we go over all the plays.
Obviously risk management. I'm there to answer all your questions,
accountable for year to date results and the game plan
(10:16):
the rest of the way. Again, if you're using this
investment vehicle and taking it seriously, three dollars a day
is the best it's going to get. Like I told Johnny,
get and don't do it for too long, Like it
shouldn't be a hard decision. You see what we're doing.
You see the results. If you're betting for profit, it's automatic.
Especially with the bowl games college basketball ahead, Like there's
(10:36):
just so much opportunity. And I'll give you some of
that steam real quickly. This is what's been on the
steam sheet. This has been in there since like Monday. Okay,
forget the bowl games. There's like fifteen bowl plays already
in there. Here's the NFL for Saturday. For Sunday four
fifty Sixcuston minus six and a half and seven and
a half for sixty Jacksonville minus ten for sixty two,
(10:57):
Chicago six and a half and Sevenfalo plus two and
a half and pick Cincinnati plus three, Seattle minus four ten,
eleven and a half and twelve, Green Bay minus one,
one and a half, Rams minus four and a half
and five and a half, Minnesota plus seven and a
half down the plus six and a half, and Miami,
which I just touched on at plus three and a half.
That was already in there from like Monday night. So
(11:20):
as soon as the information comes steam sheet guys, get it.
Premium guys, get it. Best deal you're ever gonna get again.
Speaks for itself. Join the team steam room every Saturday
or Sunday. A lot of fun over the next twelve months.
We're gonna do damage. That's the bottom line.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
I love it. You can also catch VR on Last
Call with me on Saturdays, and we got a special treat.
Marco D'Angelis is Marco D'Angel is going to join us
this week on Last Call, And of course you can
catch VR on Sundays with Ariel Lefstcene going over all
that NFL S team before his steam Room Marco. We
got some barking dogs this week. And I know VR
(11:59):
and I kinda alluded to maybe like in the Miami side,
you're going full on in Miami. Is winning this game
out right against your Steelers or what?
Speaker 3 (12:07):
All Right?
Speaker 2 (12:07):
Yep, Kelly, I'm going with you.
Speaker 1 (12:10):
Guys.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
Always tell me, you know, you know, don't be a homer.
I'm not a homer. I did give you Pittsburgh last
week on a different show we did on wager Talk
today on Friday, I told everybody that Pittsburgh was the side.
It wasn't pretty, but they got the job done. Now
I'm going to go against them this week. And here
why you look at Pittsburgh. They were an upset winner,
(12:32):
five and a half point underdog. They win, Now they
switch roles in their favorite. I never liked that situation.
I always like to look to the dog when a
team's going from a dog to a favorite off a win.
Pittsburgh was able to connect on a few plays last week,
and it was funny that on the first one, the
announcer said, that is the first deep pass in over
(12:56):
a month for the Steelers. When Aaron Rodgers hit DK metcalf,
they hadn't had a pass play that traveled over twenty yards,
not counting a catch and run, you know, out of
the backfield, a downfield pass. So that's how bad the
Pittsburgh offense has been in recent weeks. There was a
controversial call in last week's game. VR already told you
(13:20):
about the stats how it was one sided. There was
a controversial TD with under three minutes to play in
that game that actually would have gave Baltimore the lead,
but they overturned it. The yardage was there. I am
looking at Miami, this is a team that we put
them for dead maybe a month ago. Coach was going
(13:41):
to be fired, all of that. Well, they're playing hard
right now. And I didn't think the coach would make
the season, but they're playing for him. They're one game
under five hundred. And I know, why do I even
bring that up. Well, that's a little angle that I do.
Like late in the season in professional or college football,
any sport, when you're late in a season and you're
(14:02):
at that game when you're one game under five hundred
and your next performance can get you to that five
hundred mark, that means you're no longer a loser. That
is a mental motivational edge for teams. So I'm throwing
that in there as well. And you look at the
games that they've been playing. They're dominating on the ground.
They have rushed for one hundred and sixty four yards
(14:23):
or more in four straight games. Hello, have you been
watching the Pittsburgh Steelers. They can't stop the run. This
is two weeks in a row. Buffalo ran for two
hundred and forty nine against the Steeler defense with two
offensive linemen out two weeks ago. Last week, Baltimore rushed
for two toh two. I am gonna look for Miami
to come into Pittsburgh on Monday Night football and get
(14:46):
the job done. This is an upset alert. We're going
ahead taking Miami plus the points, but this dog is
gonna bark loud on Monday night. So definitely put that
little sprinkle on the Dolphins as well.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Yeah, and that's what VR is doing to you. He's
making your dog look super little right now, I just
open the script. VR, Are you insane?
Speaker 3 (15:08):
He'shkel here's why, here's why, here's why.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
Then me off his couch.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
Here's why. Hear me out, hear me out. I've given
three NFL games to subscribers as premiums as four percent
plays strong plays. One of them will be upgraded to
a five percent. They're that strong of plays. Only one
of them is a dog. So I can't do that
to my subscribers by getting it out there. Now, still
(15:37):
got to confirm. So the next strongest lean I have
on a dog is this one. I have to release it.
I gotta be honest with the viewers, and it's the
Indianapolis Colts. I get it. I get the situation, but
look at the adjustment We're looking at a nine point
adjustment already, and this one's going to continue to climb
rest the short because all the talk will be exactly
(15:59):
what you touch coming in off the couch, not prepared.
Not only is it Riley Leonard. Now they brought in
Ripping as the only two active quarterbacks, and Leonard's already
dealing with a knee injury. We know all of that.
All of that is understood, we get it. But the line,
(16:21):
the number is the ultimate thing we need to pay
attention to and focus on. And right now you're telling
me that the drop off is upwards of ten points,
and I just do not think that's warranted. That's a
lot in the NFL. There's forty plus players, fifty oh
players are going to affect the outcome of that game.
(16:42):
I know the quarterback is a key component, but only
to a certain degree. And even though Daniel Jones is
top five in passing success rate, which is very very important,
that coupled with him having such big year, is why
(17:02):
this adjustment is so significant. But again I think the
the initial move yet it's warranted. Take it up from
minus four to four and a half, the minus eight
and a half, nine and a half even ten. But
since then it's been nothing but noise that continues to
push this up, and by someday we're gonna be getting
upwards of two touchdowns. Now, granted, are they gonna win
(17:25):
the game outright? Probably not. But you're talking about the
Indianapolis Colts here, like, it's not the Tennessee Titans that
all of us like you expect them to lose by thirty. Anyway,
this is a night and five football team. Like, this
is a good quality team in the Colts. I get it.
They've lost three straight games, three of their last four,
(17:49):
and for of the last five in fact, but three
of those have been by one score. And it's that
last week lost to Jacksonville where it looks like the
wheels fell off, where they found themselves twenty eight to
ten behind that now it's, oh, look what happened, He's gone.
They lose by three touchdowns. That's exactly what's gonna happen
(18:10):
this week. I wouldn't be too sure of it. Again,
I know how good Seattle is, and that's where we're
benefiting here, because Seattle is a ten to three football team.
Because Seattle is a top two to three Power rated team,
that's why this line's gonna keep climbing, and that's where
we get into true plus eb doesn't mean we're going
(18:32):
to cash a ticket, but I'm very confident getting anything
more than eleven and a half with the Indianapolis Colts,
that would be an adjustment of over a touchdown for
Daniel Jones. I think that's as high as you get.
So these extra two points that we're getting is already
a gift, and I'm pretty sure this is gonna get
up over fourteen because of all the ten point teasers,
(18:55):
because of all the money line parlays, all the money
that's going to be on the Seattle where they think
this is automatic. All Seattle has to do is show up. Look,
they just beat Atlanta by thirty, they just beat Minnesota
by twenty six. This is nothing for them. They beat
Arizona by twenty.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
Be careful.
Speaker 3 (19:12):
The Rams are on deck. That's the game that matters
for Seattle. It's not this one. They're gonna overlook Indianapolis
and cults are going to back door cover and screw
it up for everybody.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
Ooh okay, fine, Well, hopefully a team that doesn't need
a backdoor cover and is barking in terms of winning
outright is the Detroit Lions. The artists mentioned how did
the Rams look last week? And they look like they're
the number one team in the AFC. But did we
forget about the week before when they waltzed into Carolina
(19:44):
and lost as a double digit favorite. Yeah, they're seven
to one straight up, six and two against the spread.
I just I'm not sure this line isn't a smidge
too high. I made this game four looking into it
five and a half. Do we see a six? Look?
It's Dan Campbell and the Lions. Every once in a
(20:07):
while they can flip that switch, and we saw them
do it last week against the Cowboys, especially in the
underdog role. I'm gonna go ahead and guess we talked
about all the time, which coaches know the spread. I
feel like Dan Campbell's one of those coaches, and that's
maybe why he's so good as an underdog. Now this
year we have seen some regression. He's just one in
three as a dog this year, but overall in his
(20:29):
career eleven and four. I like this line. You guys
know it. Those five and a half's get me every
single time. Come on in, you know you want to
back the Lions, So I'm gonna do it, and I'm
gonna take them here in the Rams off an absolute route,
kind of going back to what Marco says, maybe the
Rams aren't as good as the team that we saw
(20:51):
just beat the everliving crap out of the Arizona Cardinals.
And who did VR say? Oh wait, that's right, they
got the Seattle Seahawks on. I don't know if Marco
put that in a sandwich game or not, but man,
his sandwiches have been doing so good. Those Deli sandwiches
have not been stinky. There's no weird cheese, there's no
(21:12):
nothing gross. Marco thirty nine and twenty eight on the season.
If you guys are watching here on beat On as
well as the standalone the standalone segment here on the
Wager Talking YouTube channel, Marco, let's hear it? Who is
the sandwich game for NFL Week fifteen.
Speaker 2 (21:29):
Yeah, a lot of you thought last week we had
a stinky one when we had Minnesota after what they
did the week before, what'd they do thirty one? Nothing
last week? Well, you might have to hold your nose
again this week. But I'm going to start with a disclaimer. Please, listen,
for all those Chicago Bear people out there, I am
not picking on Chicago. I am not saying anything bad
(21:53):
about your Chicago Bears. I am talking about the situation
and what we're looking at. And as I say, we're
an over again on the show, when we get to
these type of plays, you've got to trust the process. Well,
we got Chicago that just played the biggest game of
the year last week. That might have been the biggest
(22:13):
game for the Bears in how many years as far
as relevance goes. And what I mean by that is,
had Chicago won that game last week, they would have
had a one and a half game lead on the
Green Bay Packers with just four games left, and they
would have had one more meeting with Green Bay in Chicago.
(22:35):
With just four games left, they owned the tiebreaker. They
would have been in the driver's seat. But they lost
a tough game, and they lost it in gut redgeing fashion.
A fourth and one in the waning seconds of the game,
deep in Green Bay territory, they throw an interception in
the end zone. That's a tough loss. To pick yourself
(22:55):
up off the mat. How many times do we say
and this is clearly those spots. They gotta be careful
they don't lose the same game twice. I don't care
who they would be playing next week. This would be
a candidate to go against Chicago this week. The fact
that they are playing green Bay next week. Can you
get any bigger of a sandwich? You played green Bay
(23:19):
last week for first place, You're gonna be playing green
Bay for first place again next week. Yes. I know
people are gonna say, well, if they don't win this week,
it doesn't matter about next week. Yeah, that's true. But
they just have to win. They don't have to win
by a margin. This isn't college football. They need style points.
I'm gonna look to the sandwich of all sandwiches and
(23:40):
take Cleveland plus the points. What's the other adage? I
always tell you, guys, take the better defense getting points.
That's the one thing that's been consistent with Cleveland until
last week. In that game with Tennessee, where you did
have some points scored. There were some big plays in
that game, but for the most part, all year long,
this Cleveland defense has played well and I think they're
(24:02):
gonna play well again. And as much as we made
fun of Dion's kid, Shador Sanders. He's improving by the
week for Cleveland. He made some big plays last week
and they only lost by a two point conversion. I
think they're gonna be up for this one to play
the role of spoiler against Chicago. I'll take the points
(24:23):
we're getting over a touchdown. I'm not ready for Chicago
to be laying those that kind of number in a
must win situation with a monster game on deck, Let's
go ahead and take Cleveland plus the points. Is this
week's sandwich special from the Deli Marco.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
Let's run it back real quick. I want to know
what you've got going on over at wager talk dot
com wt dot buzz Backslash Marco three sixty five. Is
it the same as.
Speaker 2 (24:52):
VR, It's the same as VR. We're running this. It's
a special biling the guys. If you go look and
try to find this on the site, it's not they
are because the price is nineteen ninety nine. We're doing
this for you, guys, the bet on It family. You
guys have been with us all year and we love it.
We love the comments that you leave us every week
in the YouTube channel. We try to get in there
(25:13):
and answer as many questions as we can. We appreciate
all those thumbs up. So this is a thank you
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be able to pick up VR or myself, and I
highly recommend getting both of us for the entire year,
three hundred and sixty five days NonStop action for just
(25:33):
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It'll take you directly to this hidden cell where you
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(25:56):
That is Wager Talks. Thank you for watching bet on It.
We really appreciate you guys, so take advantage of it.
You'll get all of our plays. And you know we
have been running absolutely on fire. It's been a six
seven week run for us, going back.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
You love getting that six seven reference. I can't with
you anymore. Sixty nine for Marco.
Speaker 2 (26:21):
You know, Kelly, I didn't even realize until you said
it there that I got that one in there. Yes,
but it has been a big run force over the
last six to seven weeks, so you know, six seven,
but we're up over seventy three units for our clients.
That's seventy three hundred dollars playing just one hundred dollars
per unit. We only released one to three plays on
(26:41):
average per day and a little more on the weekend,
so we're not high volume, so you know you're not
over extending your bank roll. We give you the quality
plays and it's worked well forced and if you want action,
get er. He brings you a lot more action than
I do. But yet we're running one two in money one.
So it's like you know the old saying, you know
(27:04):
you want the tortoise or the you know the hair,
which one you want. We're both getting to the finish
line take advantage of that three sixty five offer from
both of us, Kelly. So that's what's going on this
week over at a wager Talk. In full disclosure, we
finally lost the five percent play last week. It was
on the Indianapolis Colts with the Daniel Jones going down,
(27:26):
no excuses, they lost the game, but I'll still take
that forty and seventeen mark on five percent plays. You'll
get all of those in that package as well.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
All right, let's get into those best bets. VR took mine,
so I'm gonna let him go first. Listen as I
give the guys blow behind the scenes disclosure. I give
the guys first DIBs to put in the games. Right,
I'm the host, but I enjoy getting give my opinions
as well. VR immediately put this one in there, and
I thought, damn it, I love this play. Great Bay
(27:58):
over my Denver Broncos. I told Teddy this week on
the opening line report, this one reaked to the high.
The second I saw this line, I was like, I'm
betting now.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
Now you might have just confirmed it for me, because,
like I said this week, unfortunately another free plays are
premium because I only gave out three so far to subscribers,
and one of them is going to be upgraded. But
this is a strong lean and with you liking it
as well, you're probably going to have me get to
the window and confirming because I do like Green Bay
that I'll tell you the only thing that has kept
(28:28):
me from it so far. Number one, I like the
way they set up. They just played Chicago like Marco
touched on. They have Chicago on deck a lot will
think they're going to overlook this game, but it'll it
matters so much right now at the end of the season,
especially going into that game next week with Chicago, and
you still don't know exactly what Chicago is going to
(28:49):
do this week. So to think Green Bay is just
going to pack it in and look towards next week
is ridiculous. Now, I look at this Green Bay team,
very respectable road record. In fact, six games on the road,
they've only lost one, and that's going to matter because
they're going into Denver, which has a real strong home
field advantage. Why they haven't lost a single game in
(29:10):
Denver this year six and zero air compared to five
and two on the road, So we like the home
field advantage for Denver. Here's the problem with the Broncos.
Their offense is bottom tier, so they're in the bottom
ten offensively as far as efficiency goes, and yet they've
had the thirty first toughest schedule, so only one team
(29:32):
has had an easier schedule than the Denver Broncos. And
yet offensively they're really struggling. But it's the defensive side
of the ball that's very impressive. They're top ten. I
have them about eighth inefficiency. A couple different data points
go into that number. They're around eighth right now, but
again that's what the thirty first toughest schedule. Now they're
(29:54):
playing a green Bay team top ten offensively, top five defensively,
and a tougher strength of schedule than the Denver Broncos. Again,
green Bay strength of schedule hasn't been the toughest either,
but it is tougher than Denver. So I have the
better offense, the better defense, both statistically done so with
(30:15):
the tougher strength of schedule. So what's the power ratings say? Well,
it says on a neutral field, green Bay should be
about a four and a half point favorite over the
Denver Broncos four four and a half. What's the home
field advantage worth for Denver? It's about one point nine.
Let's just round it off the two. So four and
a half minus two makes Denver about a two and
a half point green Bay about two and a half
(30:36):
point favorite on the road. That's what the line is
at right now. So line value wise isn't there for me.
That's why I haven't released a premium yet. But all
the factors surrounding it give me the nod on the
green Bay side. So I probably will get to the
window with them, especially if I see it dropped, you know,
(30:56):
to two. And I do see that possibility coming out there,
because I even see it right now to minus eleven
at Pinnacle, to minus fifteen at bet online, So I
do expect some Denver money and we may get green
Bay discounted. I will add this though, don't be surprised
if you see Denver on my teaser list because right
(31:19):
now they qualify yeah, right now one and a half,
two two and a half what we're looking for, and
more importantly the low total. So for me teasers, you
know how I play them. I don't care about my opinion.
I'm just teasing numbers. So even if I have a
bet on green Bay, if it's in that two two
and a half range, I will have a Denver teaser
as well well.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
Absolutely v are just like last week I had the
Saints plus eight and a half. I use Tampa Bay
and Survivor, and then I also tease Tampa Bay down.
I mean these exactly mathematically there are doing it to
make money, not to be right exactly. And I also
I'm gonna tease the Denver Broncos. I think this is
a touchdown game, just like last week. I found a
(31:59):
half point better with the Packers took it. I think
this could even be a field goal game and we
will all gladly take a twenty four to twenty one
final there in Denver. Marco, you are Naxon. You have
another team total for us here. I kind of talked
about this game already on Sunday Night football, You're saying
take the Dallas over. Talk to me about maybe I
(32:21):
don't want to take the under in that football game
then on Sunday Night.
Speaker 2 (32:25):
Well, Kelly, we're just talking about one team here. We're
talking about the Cowboys. And this has been a favorite
situation of us that has worked all year every time
we've used it, much to the dismay of some people
that don't like the bet team totals and cash winning tickets.
But the formula is simple. We take a good offensive
team that's awful loss to bounce back with a big
(32:46):
effort at home. Well, Dallas had won three in a row,
scoring thirty three, twenty four, and thirty one points. Last
week in defeat, they scored thirty points. They're back home
where they have been rolling. They're indoor on a fast
track against a team that just won thirty one nothing.
We were on Minnesota last week. Why were we on
(33:08):
Minnesota last week, Well, because we were going against Washington.
Washington was coming off that Sunday night football game when
they gave a big effort a team that had nothing
to play for but was playing the primetime game, and
they gave the Denver Broncos everything they could handle. Game
went to overtime, they scored touchdown. Instead of kicking the
(33:32):
extra point to tie the game, they went for the
win as they were supposed to with a team with
the record they had, and they fell. So they were
in a horrible spot last week coming off of that,
and Minnesota took advantage of it. This week, it's Minnesota
in the horrible spot. I'll take Dallas to score. And
the other part of it is you're gonna see You
(33:53):
alluded to it when you talked about this game, Kelly,
about Dallas settling for some field goals. The reason Dallas
settled for some field goals last week, Yes, they've got
a great field goal kicker. It's because and I'm going
to quote the late Dennis Green. He is who we
thought he was. George Pickens decided to take plays off
(34:15):
last week. That's why they didn't score touchdowns. He was
wide open on plays if he runs the route. He
quit on the plays. So that thirty points they scored
in defeat last week very easily could have been forty plus.
What's it going to be this week against depleted Minnesota team?
You had? Minnesota's got a good defense. We saw that
(34:37):
last week against Washington that you know, lost Daniels again
in that game. That won't be the case against this team.
And if I'm mister Pickens, you know we saw this
show in Pittsburgh already. The last thing you should be
doing in a contract year, idiot, is taking plays off
(34:58):
if you want to get paid, That's not how you
get paid. Look for a big game from the Cowboys offense.
We're going over what I think is the very soft
number twenty seven and a half. They have no problem
getting into the thirties in this one team total Dallas over.
Speaker 1 (35:13):
Ooh okay, all right, I'm on board. And another thing
I'm on board with is to continue to bet against
King City Chiefs. Last week, I gave you guys the
barking dog of the Texans, and that one was virtually
no sweat, unlike my best bet of the Denver Broncos. Anyway,
we're gonna bet against the Chiefs, and why shouldn't we.
(35:36):
This is the Chiefs team that I've been betting against
all year long, starting back with the Eagles in the
Super Bowl. We have seen regression hit this team like
a ton of bricks. These two played Week one, if
you guys remember in Brazil, and the Chargers won that game.
(35:58):
But now in the last five games kan City one
and four straight up, oh and five against the spread,
and last six games, and I saw guys that I
respected very much so say, yeah, but if the Chiefs
are gonna make the playoffs, they had to win last week. Well, yeah,
the Chiefs want to make the playoffs, they have to
win this week. Guys. I also bet three to one
on the Chiefs not to make the playoffs because they're
not going to make the playoffs. The Chargers, on the
(36:20):
other hand, have won five of their last six, including
if you guys remember just against the Eagles there in
overtime on Monday night. Now, there was a lot of
turnovers in that game. There's a lot of wonky stuff
that happened, but I'm sure the Chargers will gladly take
the prime time win. The only little asterisk here is
justin Herbert. I do have some concerns about his hand,
(36:42):
but I think he's gonna be okay. He didn't do
any further damage to them. But we think that they
can run the ball and take some of the pressure
they're off Herbert. As I mentioned last week while we
were betting against the Chiefs, and that was because of
how banged up the offense and CIV line has. Josh
Simmons Wayne Morris both been rolled out already, Juwan Taylor
(37:05):
still hurt, Trey Smith questionable after missing every single practice
last week. Seven of the last eight games for the
Chiefs have gone under the total. And I know why
everybody's gonna want to bet the under here because again,
Herbert was sacked a bunch last week. Their offense wasn't
generating a ton, But going back to that under that
(37:26):
makes points as a premium. Could the Chiefs win this
game by a field goal? And may not be surprised? Sure,
That's why I did not put this team as my
barking dog. I made them my best bet plus four
and a half for the Chargers already cashed that under
eleven and a half wins, so I don't care if
the Chiefs win. I don't care if the Chiefs fans
are mad at me for this season. Go ahead and
(37:46):
get in the comments section and let me know. Bring
it on, baby. I can't wait to catch that no
playoffs tickets, guys. I can't wait to continue cashing tickets
with both of you being red hot here on bet
on it VR. Shout out to you, Shout out to
Marco di'angelo, Marco Barco, as the comment section still loves
to say, because he's been catching some of those really nice,
(38:06):
outright underdogs. And of course, if you guys are looking
for Army Navy, you guys are looking for college football playoff,
you guys are looking for bowl games, you guys can
hang out right here on the Wager Talking YouTube channel,
Mega Show right here, College Football Show right here, and
until next week, let's bet on it
NFL Week fifteen is upon us. We've got those prime
time games, some barking dogs. We're gonna check in with
VR for the Steam report and of course that DELI.
Let's see how Marco did last week. We're gonna follow
it all up with some best bets up next on
bet on It. Welcome into bet on It, Kelly Stewart, here,
(00:34):
Yanni the Greek, Marco D'Angelo. We're gonna get right into
NFL Week fifteen. Marco, you're stuck with this game, mainly
because you picked it, and I don't know why. Thursday
Night Football, Atlanta is a five and a half point
dog at Tampa Bay forty four and a half. How
the Mighty have fallen? This team cost me one of
(00:54):
the legs, it didn't matter. They both lost in my
Survivor pool last week. I am shocked at how poorly
Tampa Bay has played over the last six weeks since
I basically gave Baker Mayfield the MVP trophy.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
You're the one that did it, Kelly. Okay, this is
a spot where you know, at four nine, Atlanta has
nothing to play for it. Let's be honest, and it
showed last week they lost at home to Seattle in
a lifeless effort thirty seven to nine. But I always
point out the teams that are out of it. They're
going to show up for two types of games. They're
(01:30):
going to show up for a division game where they
can play spoiler to a division rival, or when they're
on a primetime TV game, because nobody wants to be embarrassed. Well,
they were embarrassed last week. Now they're on primetime this week,
so they're going to show up for this one. Baker,
as you alluded to, is not played well. He's been
(01:51):
banged up over the last month, and the numbers reflected.
He's gone now four straight games passing for two hundred
or less yards. That's not what we saw in the
beginning of the season with Baker when all of us
were talking about he was a legitimate MVP candidate. Yes,
it's a must win for Tampa Bay, but I really
(02:14):
can't lay points with them right now. They're deadlocked with Carolina,
So yes, it is a must win, but this defense
is getting worn down from Tampa and the reason for
that is the offense can't stay on the field long
enough to give them that balance with time and possession.
We all know the longer your defense is out there,
the worse it's gonna be. And it's starting to wear
(02:35):
on him. They've given up twenty four or more points
now in four of their last five games Tampa Bay.
In their seven wins this season, five of them have
been by three points or less. I'm gonna go ahead,
take the dog that's got nothing to lose here. They're
playing loose, playing, spoiler playing in front of the TV
cameras to a team that's life and death and you
(02:56):
know those teams that need to win Vegas and make
it pay for it. I'll go ahead and take it.
Lanta plus the points here.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Okay, I'm gonna go Sunday Night football. And while I
probably won't get involved in this game, I do feel
like it's kind of interesting. I mentioned that Tampa Bay
ruined my survivor hopes and I was greatly considering taking Minnesota.
Then that line went a little crazy with Jayden Daniels returning,
and while I will stout and boy did Minnesota make
(03:28):
me pay. They looked like the Minnesota team that we
thought they were supposed to be. They snapped a four
game losing streak. JJ McCarthy best game and That's why
I don't know if I really want to play them here.
Right Marco loves to say no team is as bad
as their worst game, and no team is as good
(03:48):
as their best, And so now I want to go Okay,
Dallas looked poor on Thursday night football. They've got extra rest.
Surely I can play them here, But I don't know.
Dallas has been settling for a lot of field goals lately.
I also would probably do the same if I had
Brandon Aubrey, who could kick sixty yards without a doubt.
(04:12):
But that offense coming to a screeching halt is concerning
for me, especially as Minnesota's starts to progress. Now, keep
an eye out Ceedee Lamp. Remember he got hurt again
and that concerns me here if you're looking to lay
points with this team. But I will say this, Dallas's
defense is significantly better than what we saw from Washington,
(04:36):
and that is going to be the difference maker here.
I've got that one circled. Dallas being an underdog now
being a favorite favorite and now asked to win by
a margin is tough for me to get on board with.
I lean Minnesota plus the five and a half six
depending on where you like to shop. And I also
(04:57):
lean the under here. I think this is going to
be a lower score game. So there's a little bit
of a preview on Sunday Night Football on maybe if
I get on board with either one of these, But VR,
I made you pick Monday Night Football, so you're gonna
have to break down this one for me. Miami is
a three and a half point favorite at Pittsburgh forty
(05:17):
two and a half. Talk to me about that Pittsburgh
game last week. Yeah, the Dolphins beat the Jets. That's
what they do. They just beat the Jets. That was
should have been expected. But man, Steelers, is that more
of a testament to how well the Steelers team is
starting to play? Or is it more of a testament
to how poor the Ravens looked? Well?
Speaker 3 (05:37):
Yeah, because if you covered a box score, I don't
think you're gonna walk away with the conclusion that the
Steelers were the better team. I mean, Steelers rushed for
thirty four yards on seventeen carries, compared to over two
hundred yards rushing for Baltimore. Also passing, Steelers pass for
about eighty yards more so in total yard and Steelers
had about three hundred yards compared to over four hundred
(06:00):
for Baltimore. And then you look at even the return yardage.
You look at everything pretty much in favor of Baltimore,
even time of possession. But it was that red zone
efficiency that cost them because they gotten in the red
zone six times and only scored twice. That was the
difference maker. You got to get it done in the
red zone and they also had, you know that one
(06:23):
interception from Lamar Jackson. Now disclaimer, I have not bet
this game. In fact that the plays that I'm releasing
on this week's bet on It, they're not premium plays.
I haven't released two subscribers. They're the leans that I
have heading in right now on bet on It. NFL
twenty five sixteen and one. That's sixty percent. I'll take
it College football and NFL fifty eight twenty seven and
(06:46):
one about seventy percent. So so far, so good. And
here's the lean on this game. I got to look
at the points with Miami because they're the better defense.
I mean, you got a top fifteen defense even though
they had a really soft strength of schedule. That's what
you want when you're getting points. A team that could
keep it close and within margin. And when I look
at the Steelers, they're barely a top twenty offense. They're
(07:08):
barely a top twenty defense. Now testament to them, they've
done so with the top fifteen strength of schedule. But
they're coming off such a big win against Derision rival Baltimore.
Oh and guess what they got Detroit up on deck.
And granted it's not a divisional or even conference game,
but it is the Detroit Lions, followed by divisional games
(07:30):
with Cleveland and Baltimore, So a lot on deck for Pittsburgh.
Don't expect them to overlook it's Monday night, it's a
primetime game. I get it. But I just think this
Steeler team is a little bit overvalued right now. Power
rating wise, I have them barely in the top twenty.
I have them maybe a slot and a half above Miami.
(07:51):
My number I come up with is Steelers on a
neutral field should be about a half point favorite at
the most. I add about one point seventy five for
the Steelers home field advantage. That gets me to about
minus two point twenty five as a favorite. I'm able
to get above that key number of three. That's the
way I'm looking again having gotten to the window, but
based on my power ratings and the matchup right now,
(08:14):
i'd look to grab the three and a half with
the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
All right, we're gonna get right into that steam room, VR,
and we've got a little special just for those here
on bet on it. Marco's going to talk about it
a little bit later, but VR, I want you to
talk about yours and what everybody can do to get
on board. No coupon code needed, WT dot buzz backslash,
ace three six five. Let everybody know what they're going
(08:41):
to get in that one year past normally priced at
nineteen ninety nine now down to eleven eighty eight or
just ninety nine dollars a month to partner up with you.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Yeah, it's like three dollars a day, dude, less than
a cup of coffee for all this information. And that's
exactly what I told Johnny. Now do we figure it
out with the steam sheet. I want even the most
recreational better to get access to the sharpest stuff. So
as a premium subscriber, you're already getting what I'm now
narrowing down. And if you look pretty much number one,
last seven, last thirty number one in college football. Since
(09:14):
narrowing down those premiums, I'm very confident in what those
results are going to be over the next twelve months.
But also you get the steamshet with it every day,
which is all the moves that I got down on
for the groups I work with and ones that I
trade with, and you may see that there's still value
on the board. They may agree with your leans that
(09:35):
you can still get down on that. I haven't released
this premium, but you still have access to all that information.
NFL college football, NBA college basketball, NHL tennis, I've put
handball in there, I've put women's basketball. Like any sharp stuff,
winning stuff, you get that. And again I'm looking for
(09:55):
guys that want to partner over the next twelve months
and do it right. Each week you get a steam
room that's four a month. Only one is free, so
you get the other three that no one else gets.
And in those steam rooms we go over all the plays.
Obviously risk management. I'm there to answer all your questions,
accountable for year to date results and the game plan
(10:16):
the rest of the way. Again, if you're using this
investment vehicle and taking it seriously, three dollars a day
is the best it's going to get. Like I told Johnny,
get and don't do it for too long, Like it
shouldn't be a hard decision. You see what we're doing.
You see the results. If you're betting for profit, it's automatic.
Especially with the bowl games college basketball ahead, Like there's
(10:36):
just so much opportunity. And I'll give you some of
that steam real quickly. This is what's been on the
steam sheet. This has been in there since like Monday. Okay,
forget the bowl games. There's like fifteen bowl plays already
in there. Here's the NFL for Saturday. For Sunday four
fifty Sixcuston minus six and a half and seven and
a half for sixty Jacksonville minus ten for sixty two,
(10:57):
Chicago six and a half and Sevenfalo plus two and
a half and pick Cincinnati plus three, Seattle minus four ten,
eleven and a half and twelve, Green Bay minus one,
one and a half, Rams minus four and a half
and five and a half, Minnesota plus seven and a
half down the plus six and a half, and Miami,
which I just touched on at plus three and a half.
That was already in there from like Monday night. So
(11:20):
as soon as the information comes steam sheet guys, get it.
Premium guys, get it. Best deal you're ever gonna get again.
Speaks for itself. Join the team steam room every Saturday
or Sunday. A lot of fun over the next twelve months.
We're gonna do damage. That's the bottom line.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
I love it. You can also catch VR on Last
Call with me on Saturdays, and we got a special treat.
Marco D'Angelis is Marco D'Angel is going to join us
this week on Last Call, And of course you can
catch VR on Sundays with Ariel Lefstcene going over all
that NFL S team before his steam Room Marco. We
got some barking dogs this week. And I know VR
(11:59):
and I kinda alluded to maybe like in the Miami side,
you're going full on in Miami. Is winning this game
out right against your Steelers or what?
Speaker 3 (12:07):
All Right?
Speaker 2 (12:07):
Yep, Kelly, I'm going with you.
Speaker 1 (12:10):
Guys.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
Always tell me, you know, you know, don't be a homer.
I'm not a homer. I did give you Pittsburgh last
week on a different show we did on wager Talk
today on Friday, I told everybody that Pittsburgh was the side.
It wasn't pretty, but they got the job done. Now
I'm going to go against them this week. And here
why you look at Pittsburgh. They were an upset winner,
(12:32):
five and a half point underdog. They win, Now they
switch roles in their favorite. I never liked that situation.
I always like to look to the dog when a
team's going from a dog to a favorite off a win.
Pittsburgh was able to connect on a few plays last week,
and it was funny that on the first one, the
announcer said, that is the first deep pass in over
(12:56):
a month for the Steelers. When Aaron Rodgers hit DK metcalf,
they hadn't had a pass play that traveled over twenty yards,
not counting a catch and run, you know, out of
the backfield, a downfield pass. So that's how bad the
Pittsburgh offense has been in recent weeks. There was a
controversial call in last week's game. VR already told you
(13:20):
about the stats how it was one sided. There was
a controversial TD with under three minutes to play in
that game that actually would have gave Baltimore the lead,
but they overturned it. The yardage was there. I am
looking at Miami, this is a team that we put
them for dead maybe a month ago. Coach was going
(13:41):
to be fired, all of that. Well, they're playing hard
right now. And I didn't think the coach would make
the season, but they're playing for him. They're one game
under five hundred. And I know, why do I even
bring that up. Well, that's a little angle that I do.
Like late in the season in professional or college football,
any sport, when you're late in a season and you're
(14:02):
at that game when you're one game under five hundred
and your next performance can get you to that five
hundred mark, that means you're no longer a loser. That
is a mental motivational edge for teams. So I'm throwing
that in there as well. And you look at the
games that they've been playing. They're dominating on the ground.
They have rushed for one hundred and sixty four yards
(14:23):
or more in four straight games. Hello, have you been
watching the Pittsburgh Steelers. They can't stop the run. This
is two weeks in a row. Buffalo ran for two
hundred and forty nine against the Steeler defense with two
offensive linemen out two weeks ago. Last week, Baltimore rushed
for two toh two. I am gonna look for Miami
to come into Pittsburgh on Monday Night football and get
(14:46):
the job done. This is an upset alert. We're going
ahead taking Miami plus the points, but this dog is
gonna bark loud on Monday night. So definitely put that
little sprinkle on the Dolphins as well.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Yeah, and that's what VR is doing to you. He's
making your dog look super little right now, I just
open the script. VR, Are you insane?
Speaker 3 (15:08):
He'shkel here's why, here's why, here's why.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
Then me off his couch.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
Here's why. Hear me out, hear me out. I've given
three NFL games to subscribers as premiums as four percent
plays strong plays. One of them will be upgraded to
a five percent. They're that strong of plays. Only one
of them is a dog. So I can't do that
to my subscribers by getting it out there. Now, still
(15:37):
got to confirm. So the next strongest lean I have
on a dog is this one. I have to release it.
I gotta be honest with the viewers, and it's the
Indianapolis Colts. I get it. I get the situation, but
look at the adjustment We're looking at a nine point
adjustment already, and this one's going to continue to climb
rest the short because all the talk will be exactly
(15:59):
what you touch coming in off the couch, not prepared.
Not only is it Riley Leonard. Now they brought in
Ripping as the only two active quarterbacks, and Leonard's already
dealing with a knee injury. We know all of that.
All of that is understood, we get it. But the line,
(16:21):
the number is the ultimate thing we need to pay
attention to and focus on. And right now you're telling
me that the drop off is upwards of ten points,
and I just do not think that's warranted. That's a
lot in the NFL. There's forty plus players, fifty oh
players are going to affect the outcome of that game.
(16:42):
I know the quarterback is a key component, but only
to a certain degree. And even though Daniel Jones is
top five in passing success rate, which is very very important,
that coupled with him having such big year, is why
(17:02):
this adjustment is so significant. But again I think the
the initial move yet it's warranted. Take it up from
minus four to four and a half, the minus eight
and a half, nine and a half even ten. But
since then it's been nothing but noise that continues to
push this up, and by someday we're gonna be getting
upwards of two touchdowns. Now, granted, are they gonna win
(17:25):
the game outright? Probably not. But you're talking about the
Indianapolis Colts here, like, it's not the Tennessee Titans that
all of us like you expect them to lose by thirty. Anyway,
this is a night and five football team. Like, this
is a good quality team in the Colts. I get it.
They've lost three straight games, three of their last four,
(17:49):
and for of the last five in fact, but three
of those have been by one score. And it's that
last week lost to Jacksonville where it looks like the
wheels fell off, where they found themselves twenty eight to
ten behind that now it's, oh, look what happened, He's gone.
They lose by three touchdowns. That's exactly what's gonna happen
(18:10):
this week. I wouldn't be too sure of it. Again,
I know how good Seattle is, and that's where we're
benefiting here, because Seattle is a ten to three football team.
Because Seattle is a top two to three Power rated team,
that's why this line's gonna keep climbing, and that's where
we get into true plus eb doesn't mean we're going
(18:32):
to cash a ticket, but I'm very confident getting anything
more than eleven and a half with the Indianapolis Colts,
that would be an adjustment of over a touchdown for
Daniel Jones. I think that's as high as you get.
So these extra two points that we're getting is already
a gift, and I'm pretty sure this is gonna get
up over fourteen because of all the ten point teasers,
(18:55):
because of all the money line parlays, all the money
that's going to be on the Seattle where they think
this is automatic. All Seattle has to do is show up. Look,
they just beat Atlanta by thirty, they just beat Minnesota
by twenty six. This is nothing for them. They beat
Arizona by twenty.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
Be careful.
Speaker 3 (19:12):
The Rams are on deck. That's the game that matters
for Seattle. It's not this one. They're gonna overlook Indianapolis
and cults are going to back door cover and screw
it up for everybody.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
Ooh okay, fine, Well, hopefully a team that doesn't need
a backdoor cover and is barking in terms of winning
outright is the Detroit Lions. The artists mentioned how did
the Rams look last week? And they look like they're
the number one team in the AFC. But did we
forget about the week before when they waltzed into Carolina
(19:44):
and lost as a double digit favorite. Yeah, they're seven
to one straight up, six and two against the spread.
I just I'm not sure this line isn't a smidge
too high. I made this game four looking into it
five and a half. Do we see a six? Look?
It's Dan Campbell and the Lions. Every once in a
(20:07):
while they can flip that switch, and we saw them
do it last week against the Cowboys, especially in the
underdog role. I'm gonna go ahead and guess we talked
about all the time, which coaches know the spread. I
feel like Dan Campbell's one of those coaches, and that's
maybe why he's so good as an underdog. Now this
year we have seen some regression. He's just one in
three as a dog this year, but overall in his
(20:29):
career eleven and four. I like this line. You guys
know it. Those five and a half's get me every
single time. Come on in, you know you want to
back the Lions, So I'm gonna do it, and I'm
gonna take them here in the Rams off an absolute route,
kind of going back to what Marco says, maybe the
Rams aren't as good as the team that we saw
(20:51):
just beat the everliving crap out of the Arizona Cardinals.
And who did VR say? Oh wait, that's right, they
got the Seattle Seahawks on. I don't know if Marco
put that in a sandwich game or not, but man,
his sandwiches have been doing so good. Those Deli sandwiches
have not been stinky. There's no weird cheese, there's no
(21:12):
nothing gross. Marco thirty nine and twenty eight on the season.
If you guys are watching here on beat On as
well as the standalone the standalone segment here on the
Wager Talking YouTube channel, Marco, let's hear it? Who is
the sandwich game for NFL Week fifteen.
Speaker 2 (21:29):
Yeah, a lot of you thought last week we had
a stinky one when we had Minnesota after what they
did the week before, what'd they do thirty one? Nothing
last week? Well, you might have to hold your nose
again this week. But I'm going to start with a disclaimer. Please, listen,
for all those Chicago Bear people out there, I am
not picking on Chicago. I am not saying anything bad
(21:53):
about your Chicago Bears. I am talking about the situation
and what we're looking at. And as I say, we're
an over again on the show, when we get to
these type of plays, you've got to trust the process. Well,
we got Chicago that just played the biggest game of
the year last week. That might have been the biggest
(22:13):
game for the Bears in how many years as far
as relevance goes. And what I mean by that is,
had Chicago won that game last week, they would have
had a one and a half game lead on the
Green Bay Packers with just four games left, and they
would have had one more meeting with Green Bay in Chicago.
(22:35):
With just four games left, they owned the tiebreaker. They
would have been in the driver's seat. But they lost
a tough game, and they lost it in gut redgeing fashion.
A fourth and one in the waning seconds of the game,
deep in Green Bay territory, they throw an interception in
the end zone. That's a tough loss. To pick yourself
(22:55):
up off the mat. How many times do we say
and this is clearly those spots. They gotta be careful
they don't lose the same game twice. I don't care
who they would be playing next week. This would be
a candidate to go against Chicago this week. The fact
that they are playing green Bay next week. Can you
get any bigger of a sandwich? You played green Bay
(23:19):
last week for first place, You're gonna be playing green
Bay for first place again next week. Yes. I know
people are gonna say, well, if they don't win this week,
it doesn't matter about next week. Yeah, that's true. But
they just have to win. They don't have to win
by a margin. This isn't college football. They need style points.
I'm gonna look to the sandwich of all sandwiches and
(23:40):
take Cleveland plus the points. What's the other adage? I
always tell you, guys, take the better defense getting points.
That's the one thing that's been consistent with Cleveland until
last week. In that game with Tennessee, where you did
have some points scored. There were some big plays in
that game, but for the most part, all year long,
this Cleveland defense has played well and I think they're
(24:02):
gonna play well again. And as much as we made
fun of Dion's kid, Shador Sanders. He's improving by the
week for Cleveland. He made some big plays last week
and they only lost by a two point conversion. I
think they're gonna be up for this one to play
the role of spoiler against Chicago. I'll take the points
(24:23):
we're getting over a touchdown. I'm not ready for Chicago
to be laying those that kind of number in a
must win situation with a monster game on deck, Let's
go ahead and take Cleveland plus the points. Is this
week's sandwich special from the Deli Marco.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
Let's run it back real quick. I want to know
what you've got going on over at wager talk dot
com wt dot buzz Backslash Marco three sixty five. Is
it the same as.
Speaker 2 (24:52):
VR, It's the same as VR. We're running this. It's
a special biling the guys. If you go look and
try to find this on the site, it's not they
are because the price is nineteen ninety nine. We're doing
this for you, guys, the bet on It family. You
guys have been with us all year and we love it.
We love the comments that you leave us every week
in the YouTube channel. We try to get in there
(25:13):
and answer as many questions as we can. We appreciate
all those thumbs up. So this is a thank you
for you guys. Christmas present for you guys. You're gonna
be able to pick up VR or myself, and I
highly recommend getting both of us for the entire year,
three hundred and sixty five days NonStop action for just
(25:33):
eleven hundred and eighty eight. If you go to the
secret link, and that link is wt dot Buzz backslash
Marco three sixty five. For Ace, you just go in
and do the same thing, only backslash Ace three sixty five.
It'll take you directly to this hidden cell where you
can purchase it for eleven hundred and eighty eight dollars.
(25:56):
That is Wager Talks. Thank you for watching bet on It.
We really appreciate you guys, so take advantage of it.
You'll get all of our plays. And you know we
have been running absolutely on fire. It's been a six
seven week run for us, going back.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
You love getting that six seven reference. I can't with
you anymore. Sixty nine for Marco.
Speaker 2 (26:21):
You know, Kelly, I didn't even realize until you said
it there that I got that one in there. Yes,
but it has been a big run force over the
last six to seven weeks, so you know, six seven,
but we're up over seventy three units for our clients.
That's seventy three hundred dollars playing just one hundred dollars
per unit. We only released one to three plays on
(26:41):
average per day and a little more on the weekend,
so we're not high volume, so you know you're not
over extending your bank roll. We give you the quality
plays and it's worked well forced and if you want action,
get er. He brings you a lot more action than
I do. But yet we're running one two in money one.
So it's like you know the old saying, you know
(27:04):
you want the tortoise or the you know the hair,
which one you want. We're both getting to the finish
line take advantage of that three sixty five offer from
both of us, Kelly. So that's what's going on this
week over at a wager Talk. In full disclosure, we
finally lost the five percent play last week. It was
on the Indianapolis Colts with the Daniel Jones going down,
(27:26):
no excuses, they lost the game, but I'll still take
that forty and seventeen mark on five percent plays. You'll
get all of those in that package as well.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
All right, let's get into those best bets. VR took mine,
so I'm gonna let him go first. Listen as I
give the guys blow behind the scenes disclosure. I give
the guys first DIBs to put in the games. Right,
I'm the host, but I enjoy getting give my opinions
as well. VR immediately put this one in there, and
I thought, damn it, I love this play. Great Bay
(27:58):
over my Denver Broncos. I told Teddy this week on
the opening line report, this one reaked to the high.
The second I saw this line, I was like, I'm
betting now.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
Now you might have just confirmed it for me, because,
like I said this week, unfortunately another free plays are
premium because I only gave out three so far to subscribers,
and one of them is going to be upgraded. But
this is a strong lean and with you liking it
as well, you're probably going to have me get to
the window and confirming because I do like Green Bay
that I'll tell you the only thing that has kept
(28:28):
me from it so far. Number one, I like the
way they set up. They just played Chicago like Marco
touched on. They have Chicago on deck a lot will
think they're going to overlook this game, but it'll it
matters so much right now at the end of the season,
especially going into that game next week with Chicago, and
you still don't know exactly what Chicago is going to
(28:49):
do this week. So to think Green Bay is just
going to pack it in and look towards next week
is ridiculous. Now, I look at this Green Bay team,
very respectable road record. In fact, six games on the road,
they've only lost one, and that's going to matter because
they're going into Denver, which has a real strong home
field advantage. Why they haven't lost a single game in
(29:10):
Denver this year six and zero air compared to five
and two on the road, So we like the home
field advantage for Denver. Here's the problem with the Broncos.
Their offense is bottom tier, so they're in the bottom
ten offensively as far as efficiency goes, and yet they've
had the thirty first toughest schedule, so only one team
(29:32):
has had an easier schedule than the Denver Broncos. And
yet offensively they're really struggling. But it's the defensive side
of the ball that's very impressive. They're top ten. I
have them about eighth inefficiency. A couple different data points
go into that number. They're around eighth right now, but
again that's what the thirty first toughest schedule. Now they're
(29:54):
playing a green Bay team top ten offensively, top five defensively,
and a tougher strength of schedule than the Denver Broncos. Again,
green Bay strength of schedule hasn't been the toughest either,
but it is tougher than Denver. So I have the
better offense, the better defense, both statistically done so with
(30:15):
the tougher strength of schedule. So what's the power ratings say? Well,
it says on a neutral field, green Bay should be
about a four and a half point favorite over the
Denver Broncos four four and a half. What's the home
field advantage worth for Denver? It's about one point nine.
Let's just round it off the two. So four and
a half minus two makes Denver about a two and
a half point green Bay about two and a half
(30:36):
point favorite on the road. That's what the line is
at right now. So line value wise isn't there for me.
That's why I haven't released a premium yet. But all
the factors surrounding it give me the nod on the
green Bay side. So I probably will get to the
window with them, especially if I see it dropped, you know,
(30:56):
to two. And I do see that possibility coming out there,
because I even see it right now to minus eleven
at Pinnacle, to minus fifteen at bet online, So I
do expect some Denver money and we may get green
Bay discounted. I will add this though, don't be surprised
if you see Denver on my teaser list because right
(31:19):
now they qualify yeah, right now one and a half,
two two and a half what we're looking for, and
more importantly the low total. So for me teasers, you
know how I play them. I don't care about my opinion.
I'm just teasing numbers. So even if I have a
bet on green Bay, if it's in that two two
and a half range, I will have a Denver teaser
as well well.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
Absolutely v are just like last week I had the
Saints plus eight and a half. I use Tampa Bay
and Survivor, and then I also tease Tampa Bay down.
I mean these exactly mathematically there are doing it to
make money, not to be right exactly. And I also
I'm gonna tease the Denver Broncos. I think this is
a touchdown game, just like last week. I found a
(31:59):
half point better with the Packers took it. I think
this could even be a field goal game and we
will all gladly take a twenty four to twenty one
final there in Denver. Marco, you are Naxon. You have
another team total for us here. I kind of talked
about this game already on Sunday Night football, You're saying
take the Dallas over. Talk to me about maybe I
(32:21):
don't want to take the under in that football game
then on Sunday Night.
Speaker 2 (32:25):
Well, Kelly, we're just talking about one team here. We're
talking about the Cowboys. And this has been a favorite
situation of us that has worked all year every time
we've used it, much to the dismay of some people
that don't like the bet team totals and cash winning tickets.
But the formula is simple. We take a good offensive
team that's awful loss to bounce back with a big
(32:46):
effort at home. Well, Dallas had won three in a row,
scoring thirty three, twenty four, and thirty one points. Last
week in defeat, they scored thirty points. They're back home
where they have been rolling. They're indoor on a fast
track against a team that just won thirty one nothing.
We were on Minnesota last week. Why were we on
(33:08):
Minnesota last week, Well, because we were going against Washington.
Washington was coming off that Sunday night football game when
they gave a big effort a team that had nothing
to play for but was playing the primetime game, and
they gave the Denver Broncos everything they could handle. Game
went to overtime, they scored touchdown. Instead of kicking the
(33:32):
extra point to tie the game, they went for the
win as they were supposed to with a team with
the record they had, and they fell. So they were
in a horrible spot last week coming off of that,
and Minnesota took advantage of it. This week, it's Minnesota
in the horrible spot. I'll take Dallas to score. And
the other part of it is you're gonna see You
(33:53):
alluded to it when you talked about this game, Kelly,
about Dallas settling for some field goals. The reason Dallas
settled for some field goals last week, Yes, they've got
a great field goal kicker. It's because and I'm going
to quote the late Dennis Green. He is who we
thought he was. George Pickens decided to take plays off
(34:15):
last week. That's why they didn't score touchdowns. He was
wide open on plays if he runs the route. He
quit on the plays. So that thirty points they scored
in defeat last week very easily could have been forty plus.
What's it going to be this week against depleted Minnesota team?
You had? Minnesota's got a good defense. We saw that
(34:37):
last week against Washington that you know, lost Daniels again
in that game. That won't be the case against this team.
And if I'm mister Pickens, you know we saw this
show in Pittsburgh already. The last thing you should be
doing in a contract year, idiot, is taking plays off
(34:58):
if you want to get paid, That's not how you
get paid. Look for a big game from the Cowboys offense.
We're going over what I think is the very soft
number twenty seven and a half. They have no problem
getting into the thirties in this one team total Dallas over.
Speaker 1 (35:13):
Ooh okay, all right, I'm on board. And another thing
I'm on board with is to continue to bet against
King City Chiefs. Last week, I gave you guys the
barking dog of the Texans, and that one was virtually
no sweat, unlike my best bet of the Denver Broncos. Anyway,
we're gonna bet against the Chiefs, and why shouldn't we.
(35:36):
This is the Chiefs team that I've been betting against
all year long, starting back with the Eagles in the
Super Bowl. We have seen regression hit this team like
a ton of bricks. These two played Week one, if
you guys remember in Brazil, and the Chargers won that game.
(35:58):
But now in the last five games kan City one
and four straight up, oh and five against the spread,
and last six games, and I saw guys that I
respected very much so say, yeah, but if the Chiefs
are gonna make the playoffs, they had to win last week. Well, yeah,
the Chiefs want to make the playoffs, they have to
win this week. Guys. I also bet three to one
on the Chiefs not to make the playoffs because they're
not going to make the playoffs. The Chargers, on the
(36:20):
other hand, have won five of their last six, including
if you guys remember just against the Eagles there in
overtime on Monday night. Now, there was a lot of
turnovers in that game. There's a lot of wonky stuff
that happened, but I'm sure the Chargers will gladly take
the prime time win. The only little asterisk here is
justin Herbert. I do have some concerns about his hand,
(36:42):
but I think he's gonna be okay. He didn't do
any further damage to them. But we think that they
can run the ball and take some of the pressure
they're off Herbert. As I mentioned last week while we
were betting against the Chiefs, and that was because of
how banged up the offense and CIV line has. Josh
Simmons Wayne Morris both been rolled out already, Juwan Taylor
(37:05):
still hurt, Trey Smith questionable after missing every single practice
last week. Seven of the last eight games for the
Chiefs have gone under the total. And I know why
everybody's gonna want to bet the under here because again,
Herbert was sacked a bunch last week. Their offense wasn't
generating a ton, But going back to that under that
(37:26):
makes points as a premium. Could the Chiefs win this
game by a field goal? And may not be surprised? Sure,
That's why I did not put this team as my
barking dog. I made them my best bet plus four
and a half for the Chargers already cashed that under
eleven and a half wins, so I don't care if
the Chiefs win. I don't care if the Chiefs fans
are mad at me for this season. Go ahead and
(37:46):
get in the comments section and let me know. Bring
it on, baby. I can't wait to catch that no
playoffs tickets, guys. I can't wait to continue cashing tickets
with both of you being red hot here on bet
on it VR. Shout out to you, Shout out to
Marco di'angelo, Marco Barco, as the comment section still loves
to say, because he's been catching some of those really nice,
(38:06):
outright underdogs. And of course, if you guys are looking
for Army Navy, you guys are looking for college football playoff,
you guys are looking for bowl games, you guys can
hang out right here on the Wager Talking YouTube channel,
Mega Show right here, College Football Show right here, and
until next week, let's bet on it
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