November 19, 2025 • 32 mins
Join Kelly, Marco and Gianni every Wednesday for Bet On It as we break down the Week 13 college football slate from a variety of betting angles.
Intro 00:00
#23 Missouri at #11 Oklahoma 1:15
#17 USC at #8 Oregon 2:40
#22 Pitt at #16 Georgia Tech 5:01
Gianni the Greek’s Steam Report 9:19
Barking Dogs 12:58
Marco Barko 13:28
KIV’s Barking Dog 15:31
VR’s Barking Dog17:12
Marco’s deli 21:30
Sandwich Game of the Week 21:42
Best Bets 24:00
VR CFB Best Bet24:12
Marco CFB Best Bet 27:03
Kelly CFB Best Bet 31:25
Recap 32:25
Intro 00:00
#23 Missouri at #11 Oklahoma 1:15
#17 USC at #8 Oregon 2:40
#22 Pitt at #16 Georgia Tech 5:01
Gianni the Greek’s Steam Report 9:19
Barking Dogs 12:58
Marco Barko 13:28
KIV’s Barking Dog 15:31
VR’s Barking Dog17:12
Marco’s deli 21:30
Sandwich Game of the Week 21:42
Best Bets 24:00
VR CFB Best Bet24:12
Marco CFB Best Bet 27:03
Kelly CFB Best Bet 31:25
Recap 32:25
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Week thirteen of the college football season is upon us.
We've got those top twenty five games ready to break
down for you, those barking dogs to keep on cashing
the Deli keeps on winning. We're gonna give you that
early week Steam report with VR and of course best
Bets up next on bet on It. Time flies when
(00:36):
you're cashing tickets, and that's what we've been doing here
all season long. On bet on It. I am Kelly Stewart, Yai,
the Greek right there in the middle, Marco DiAngelo in
the third seat, the King of the Delhi. I know
because I read his standalone Deli video comments, and you
guys are absolutely loving Marco for a change. It's about
damn time you guys showed Marco some of the respect
(00:58):
he deserves. VR getting all the respect he deserves coming
up here shortly, but first I gotta break down this
while former Big twelve game now SEC matchup twelve pm
Eastern ABC. Number twenty three Missouri takes on number eleven Oklahoma,
who is a seven and a half point favorite. We've
seen some early Missouri money coming in total forty two
(01:21):
and a half and that's probably because there's an anticipation
that bo I'm gonna butcher his last name, so I'm
not gonna say it bo for Beulah for Beulah maybe
back that being said, Drew coach shrink Wwood said yesterday
and his pressler he expects the lovely third stringers dollars
to start the game now Hollington's and purposes. Miszoo beat
(01:42):
Mississippi State last week, and that was a big win
because they snapped a two game losing streak. Oklahoma, though,
boy did that defense show up big time at Alabama.
They have now defeated four of five ranked opponents this year,
and that's where I'm going in this one defense. The
Sooners defense ranks eighth in the nation, allowing just sixteen
(02:02):
point one at yards per game, and like I said,
not only limiting top offenses like Alabama last week, but
also Tennessee. I like the under forty two and a
half year. I've not been impressed with this Miszoo offense
basically since getting past Auburn there and overtime losing at Vanderbilts.
This is only their third road game of the season.
(02:25):
Give me that under forty two and a half. Marco,
You're up next. Three thirty pm Eastern CBS number seventeen,
USC at number eight Oregon. Oregon is a nine and
a half point favorite. This total seems a little low
to me. Fifty nine and a half. I expected to
see them march this one out in the sixties.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Yeah, Kelly. And when you look at this one the
knee jerk reaction, you've got two top twenty five teams
going at it, and you've got a point spread of
nine and a half. That seems a tad high with
the first glance. But if you dig a little bit deeper,
I'm gonna look at this one in see the USC
when they've been on the road.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
They've struggled.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Three of their four road games this year were not
good for them. I don't trust the USC defense, as
they have given up thirty one to Michigan State, thirty
four to Illinois, and thirty four to Notre Dame. Notre
Dame's the only real legitimate team with an offense of
those three that they gave up thirty plus, And to
be honest, in that Notre Dame game, that was one
(03:26):
of the more misleading finals, they should have won by more.
In that game, Notre Dame ended up winning by ten.
A lot of missed opportunities for Notre Dame Oregon. On
the flip side, they've hit thirty points or more in
seven of their ten games in USC. What is it
it's you know, Lincoln Riley, we know what it is.
It's the same thing we saw all those years in
(03:48):
Oklahoma in the Big Twelve. They're a finesse team. They're
all offense, no defense, and when you look at this one,
they're gonna get the football pounded down their throat. And
that's one of the reasons, Kelly, that you're probably seeing
the fifty nine and a half because Oregon can play
physical football. They like to run the football thirty five
plus finmes. I know when you think of Oregon, you
(04:10):
think of that high flying offense, but they run the
football first and it sets up the passing game. Oregon
is also you hear me refer to them all the time.
They're a two hundred club member. I love teams like this.
They rush for two thirty four, they throw for two
forty two. You can't get any more balanced than that,
and it makes it tough for defenses. And speaking of defenses,
(04:35):
take a look at the Oregon defense. They're allowing just
fourteen points per game. I think USC Yeah, they look
attractive as an underdog, but I'm not buying it. I'm
going with Oregon here, thirty four to twenty. I'm gonna
go ahead and lay the nine and a half.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
Now, before you guys complain about this game saying it's
not a primetime game, Marco did the schedule this week.
So if you don't like that we're talking about this game,
this is your fault. Marco PM Eastern ESPN number twenty two,
pit At number sixteen. Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is a
two and a half point favorite. Total sixty two here
and a half. VR you you nailed it last week
(05:11):
you said pitt is just not a top twenty five team.
Yet they're still in the top twenty five and this
is a really short number here.
Speaker 4 (05:17):
Yeah, and here's the beauty Georgia Tech's phon here. That's
what's that's the greatness of this game. This is so easy, listen.
I'm just gonna keep it simple. I don't want to
waste the viewer's time. Right now, coming into this week
on bed on It, I'm twenty eight and eight on
the show.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
In college football, that's seventy eight percent. We're almost eighty percent.
Speaker 4 (05:36):
So obviously using them my power ratings with my market
read has produced profit. More importantly, I was up about
eighty units the first of October, up over one hundred
units now in Nove. One hundred and thirty units forgive
me in college football now in November. So the power
ratings get stronger and stronger as the year progresses. That's
been proven, and the same thing is going to be
(05:58):
in college basketball. Butt him back to this game real quickly.
It gets right back to my power ratings. It's a mistake.
Pittsburgh's the higher power rated team. That's the bottom line.
The better team is Pittsburgh. I have them in my
top forty. Georgia Tech just cracked my top fifty in
power rating right now, believe it or not. They've had
(06:18):
the seventieth toughest strength of schedule compared to Pittsburgh's fifty
eighth toughest strength of schedule. So Pittsburgh had the tougher
strength of schedule, and with the tougher strength of schedule,
they've had the twenty fourth most efficient offense compared to
the thirtieth most efficient offense. For Georgia Tech with the
easier schedule. So offensively, my numbers tell me that power
(06:40):
rating wise, overall, Pittsburgh's the better team. Offensively, Pittsburgh's the
better team. Now let's look at the defense again. Georgia
Tech had the weaker.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
Strength of schedule. They have the sixtieth most efficient defense.
Speaker 4 (06:54):
Pittsburgh tougher strength of schedule, had the fifty fifth most
efficient defense two week defenses, and yet Pittsburgh's still better.
So offense defense, overall, Pittsburgh's the better team.
Speaker 3 (07:08):
So what does Georgia Tech have? They have home field advantage.
Speaker 4 (07:11):
What's Georgia Tech's home field advantage, Well, over the last
three to five years. It's worth two point one points exactly.
So I have Pittsburgh the better team, wipe out the
home field advantage, and this game should be a pick them.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
At worst.
Speaker 4 (07:25):
You're giving me plus money on the money line. It's
an obvious bet you got to take. The only reason
I gave this out to subscribers that plus three was
because we were able to get it at a discount
earlier in the week. Otherwise this would be a money
line play points not needed. Points are for Pussy's in
this game. Because we got the better team again. The
(07:46):
only advantage Georgia Tech has is that they're playing at home,
and that's worth about two point one points. That's it
everywhere else. Pittsburgh's the better team, and they're coming off
playing Notre Dame, which it was probably like now slow
motion going up against Georgia Tech. Compared to playing Notre Dame.
Now you're playing a team in slow motion, it'll be
(08:08):
a lot easier week for Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (08:09):
Gimme Pittsburgh plus the points. You won't need it money
line all day.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
I just audibly laughed out loud. Good thing I was
muted comments section. We appreciate you guys every single week
here on bet on It. You always keep me laughing
as well. So if you guys have something to say,
good bad, in different drop it below. We're gonna run
it right back with VR. Here kind of an early
preview if you guys are new here on bet on
(08:35):
It of the steam room that he does on Sundays,
and it kind of gives you an idea of what
the wise guys are betting early, what the books may
need early, and if you'd like to join that steam
room this Sunday, if you are a wager Talk insider.
You get to join it for free. To become a
Wager Talking insider, WT Dot Buzz Backslash Insiders, just two
dollars and ninety nine cents a month is going to
(08:57):
get you early access to things like the Steamroom. It
comes out early, You get early access to Marco's Deli.
Lots more perks coming down the pipeline. I just got
to figure out some different structures. Listen, I've been working
hard for you guys this football season. Just give me,
give me a couple of days are I'm gonna let
you do what you do best. Steam Report College Football
(09:18):
Week thirteen.
Speaker 3 (09:19):
Yeah, the steam Room's awesome during football.
Speaker 4 (09:22):
We just do it on Sunday, the hour plus leading
into the early kickoffs, and we go through every NFL game,
at least all the early games, sign total player props.
That's the extra stuff that get Being in the Steamroom
gets you. Because there's so time sensitive, I can't even
release the subscribers those player props. We also get the
plus eb teasers those last fifteen minutes, again a lot
(09:44):
of time. There's a handful of them. I can't narrow
them down for subscribers, but for guys in the steam room.
They're able to pick the ones that they like most,
been able to make a lot of money off of those.
And finally, I'm there to answer all your questions on
any game, any money management topic, anything like that. Again,
I work for you. And after football, it'll be on
(10:05):
Saturdays with college basketball. That'll be a lot of fun
because we'll be doing a lot of live betting as
stuff comes in. Now, I narrowed down, like usual, ten
of the most legit steam moves where I'm not seeing resistance,
where I'm seeing multiple groups on the same side, and
where I still think there's a little bit of ev
because we're not seeing that resistance come back yet if
(10:28):
you agree with it again, totals come out Thursdays. I've
said that every single week. You could pick those off
easily by watching your odds logic screen tomorrow, all right,
start off all on Saturday one nineteen Rutgers plus thirty
three and thirty two. They're fading Ohio State, which was
my best bet last week. Again, number one team in
(10:48):
the country did what they're supposed to do. They've outperformed
the betting market, covering every single week except once wise,
Guys think it'll be twice. They took Rutgers Old Dominion
game one thirty one minus ten, minus ten and a half,
minus eleven against Georgia Southern one forty three Michigan laying
double digits there, twelve, thirteen, thirteen and a half against
Maryland Toledo one forty eight, twenty six and twenty seven
(11:12):
against ball State. Again, those number if you like that side,
those shouldn't scare you. Like once you get over that
minus twenty range, there's a lot of variants. The difference
between a minus twenty two and a minus twenty three
is negligible. The difference between the minus two and a
minus three two different completely bets. One fifty five Missouri
(11:32):
plus nine and a half plus nine plus eight and
a half and then plus eight against Oklahoma, one seventy
three Arkansas against Texas.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
They took the ten.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
They took the nine and a half's out as well,
Louisville playing SMU good game there if they took the
three and a half.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
More importantly, they took the three.
Speaker 4 (11:47):
Took that key number, So it wasn't just one of
those games where there's three and a half's out there,
key number three. Let's pick those off. No, they hit
the three as well. Wisconsin Illinois they took the nine
and a half, took the eight and a half. We'll
talk about that game later. Two ten LSU laying the
points against Western Kentucky. A meaningless game, but we're at
(12:07):
that part of the year where style points actually matter.
Three factors that you can't quantify in college football that
matter right now. That's bowls and playoff implications, Senior Day actually.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
Matters, and style points move up in the rankings.
Speaker 4 (12:23):
Those things are difficult to quantify, but they matter once
you get into October November, forgive me. And finally, last
game two nineteen New Mexico minus two, minus two and
a half, more importantly minus three as well. They laid
the three there against air Force. That's the steam Room
read for this week's bet on It. Jump in the
steam room on Sunday, and I'll be on Last Call
(12:44):
Saturday going over college football and college basketball as well.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
Yes, you guys can catch VR with me both days
this week, and I'm gonna be covering for Aeriel on
NFL Sunday as well. All right, Marco, I'm gonna let
you go first here on the Barking dog segment. You
have been absolute crushing this spot, and you took a
dog this week that I had on my radar. But
you're gonna have to convince me to trust them. I'm
(13:09):
not gonna lie. I had them on my long lesson.
I thought I can't trust Colorado Marco.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
Well, Kelly, I'll just give you a preview to the
NFL show. You're gonna have to trust the process several
times this week. Okay, with some of these games, and
we're gonna start with Colorado. And yes, Colorado looks ugly
as hell, they've lost four of their last five games.
But I'm really looking at the scheduling spot here. Arizona
State is coming off of SCARE last week, the only
(13:37):
won by two points as a ten and a half
point favorite. And normally you hear me say I love
taking good teams coming off of SCARE because you get
a focused aft for the next week, and that would
normally be what I'm here. But is VR just said
in his last segment, there's other things you got to
look at when you get to the final two weeks.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
Of the season.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
Some of those things are teams out of the playoffs,
do they have something to play for last home game
and rivalry games, and all those rivalry games come up
next week Thanksgiving weekend. Well, Arizona State has that big
rivalry game. They play Arizona next week, and I think
they're gonna look right past this Colorado team that as
(14:21):
ugly as can be. But this is Colorado's last home game,
so I look for them, and they are not going
to a bowl game. Okay, they're already have their seven losses,
so they can't go to a bowl. This is their
bowl game in essence, and I will take a home
team in that spot, whether it be a rivalry game
(14:41):
or the last home game, I will look to them.
And that is the case here. And with everything that
I just said and nothing to lose, what's that mean
for coach Sanders, Well, he can take all the chances
he wants. Sometimes you take chances at backfires. But if
I got a dog and they're taking chances knowing that
they're going to give me everything they got, I'll go
(15:01):
ahead and ride dad Dog. This is more of the spot, Kelly,
than the team, But everything that I look at adds
up to I've got to take Colorado with the inflated
number at home. I think just goes right down to
the wire, and let's call it Colorado twenty seven to
twenty four.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
All right, I'm gonna make VR wait a minute, because
he took my barking dog for this weekend. I'm gonna
give you, guys an even grosser barking dog, just an
absolute ugly like Kelly, Why would you do this? And
that's because I've had these double digit dogs all season
that I've left off my list, and now I gotta
take this one. Oklahoma State over two touchdowns at Central Florida,
(15:42):
a team who has lost six of their last seven games,
and now you want to lay double digits with them.
I don't understand it. Over the last three games, the
Knights have been outscored by an average of twenty three
points per game. I get it. You guys are gonna say, oh,
but Oklahoma's only scored scoring an average of fourteen point
four points game here in conference play. But that would
(16:03):
mean that UCF would have to essentially put up thirty
points here, thirty four to fourteen to cover this number
with the hook, the two touchdowns and a hook here.
I get it. Oklahoma State is not a fun team.
They fired their coach early but they've showed some fight
and this team has not quit. They wanted to beat
(16:23):
up on Kansas. They didn't get the win, but they
tried and against last week versus my Kansas State Wildcats,
I think UCF is reeling. I think the Cowboys smells
some blood in the water, and as Marco said, this
is an opportunity to get that kind of monkey off
your back and beat a conference opponent. Zane Flores forty
six of sixty four in the last two weeks seventy
(16:45):
one point nine percent. I think that the Cowboys are
live here. I would not be shocked in the slightest
to see Oklahoma State knocking on the door late in
the fourth quarter. Give me the two touchdowns and the hook,
and of course give me just a little bit on
that money line. V are go ahead and tell everybody
why you like Baylor this.
Speaker 4 (17:05):
Week, I do think And disclaimer, I haven't gotten to
the window with it yet. I haven't released it to
subscribers yet, but I only have two dogs that I.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
Was leaning this week.
Speaker 4 (17:16):
One I released which I'll use as my best bet.
So I was stuck with this one, and it's Bailor.
And here's why I haven't gotten to the window yet
because I'm not seeing six and a half at my
sharpest book. I have a different book that I use
the shade for different markets that I believe books the
sharpest stuff. And when it comes to college football, the
(17:36):
one book that I'm looking at, they have them at seven.
Speaker 3 (17:40):
Juice.
Speaker 4 (17:40):
On the Arizona side, I don't like it. I wanted
to see him at six and a half. If that
was six and a half, this would be a four
percent play, believe me. And you're saying, wait, you're getting
more points now at seven, why wouldn't it now be
a move? It's because of how I'm reading the market. Listen,
the bottom line is this Arizona. The only difference between
these two teams. The big difference is the record, the result.
(18:02):
But when you look at them on paper, the predictable data,
they're not all that far apart. In fact, power rating wise,
I only have them sixty seven slots different. I have
Arizona as the fortieth power rated team and I have
Baylor as the forty sixth, then about forty seventh, tied
right around there, forty six, forty seventh, so they're very
(18:24):
comparable in power rating and the difference in records come
down to the schedule. Arizona's had a very easy strength
of schedule. In fact, it's the fiftieth toughest in college
football compared the Bailor, which has a top twenty five
strength of schedule.
Speaker 3 (18:41):
That's the difference in the records.
Speaker 4 (18:43):
But when you look offensively, way superior offense on the
Baylor's side, fifteenth, they're a top fifteen offense with that
strength of schedule compared to a barely top forty, they're
thirty ninth Arizona Offensively, defense, that's where Baylor had the problems.
They're not they're barely in the top eighty, but still
(19:04):
Arizona is only in the top forty. So again they
may be two x better defensively, but they've had a
lot easier strength of schedule as well. So Arizona is
now going to go I mean, Baylor's going up against
a much easier offense.
Speaker 3 (19:18):
Their weakness has.
Speaker 4 (19:19):
Been defense and they're going up against a very weak offense.
So that's credit to Baylor. Strength of schedule to Baylor,
offensive side of the ball, advantage to Baylor, and they're
catching all these points.
Speaker 3 (19:30):
And when you look at Arizona, even.
Speaker 4 (19:33):
Home field advantage nothing, it's worth what not less than
two point one, so they have less of a home
field advantage.
Speaker 3 (19:40):
And Georgia Tech had over the last couple of seasons.
Speaker 4 (19:43):
So yeah, I like Baylor plus the seven points, and
it comes down the strength of schedule.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
That's the difference in the record. And I'm going to
share something real quickly.
Speaker 4 (19:51):
College basketball a perfect example because we solve this. This
reminds me of the Arkansas bet that Marco had last
week where against LSU, where it was just.
Speaker 3 (20:00):
The record, but when you looked on paper.
Speaker 4 (20:03):
And that the actual stats that matter, they were a
lot closer than the records indicate. And something that stuck
out to me today when I was looking at college
basketball and I'm sorry, I know it's a college football show,
but they have Alabama not even in it ranked I
don't think and I can tell you guys right now
my power ratings in college basketball number one Duke Auburn
is about uh what do I have? Auburn one point
(20:27):
worse than Duke one and a half point worse than Duke.
Behind Auburn is Houston, Who's a half point worse behind
Houston is Alabama and Gonzaga. So Alabama's a top five
power rated team, but because they've lost the game already,
you don't even see them in the rankings. I don't
think same thing happens in college football. So it's Baylor
teams a lot better than their five and five record,
(20:48):
and let's not forget.
Speaker 3 (20:49):
They want to be bowl eligible. Big game. Take the
points plus seven.
Speaker 4 (20:53):
Hopefully I see some six and a half's with the
Sharper books, and it gives me more confidence and we
could get the window. But Baylor sprinkle money line my
dog good week.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
Yeah, that's really close to probably making my three team moneyline. Partly,
I like a lot of double digit dogs this week,
and Marco, some of them match up with your sandwich spots,
or at least we'll call them partial sandwich spots, maybe
some look ahead spots. And that's what you do on
the delis. You show everybody where these different situational spots
come into play, whether it's a sandwich spot, whether it's
(21:25):
a trap game, whether it's a look ahead. Eight winning weeks.
That is pretty impressive this season, last week three and two,
now thirty five and eighteen on the season. Tell me
who you like this week in that good old Deli spot.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Yeah, well, Kelly, I'm going to be involved in a
game against the team that you've made some money with
this year, but they're not in their money making role.
And we're taking a look at Minnesota and Northwestern and
the team I'm talking about that Kelly has made money
with is that Northwestern team, but they're not good as
a favorite. And this is an absolute love this situation.
(22:02):
In this one, Northwestern is coming off a gut wrenching
loss to Michigan last week, and ironically, they're playing at
the same field. Remember they played at Soldier Field last week.
They're playing there again this week. And you lose to
Michigan when you've got the lead late and Michigan ends
up hitting a game winning field goal with two seconds.
You know what I'm gonna say next. This is the
(22:23):
poster child for lose the same game twice. Now you
look at what's going on. Because they played so well
last week against Michigan, you're getting an inflated line with Northwestern.
And although Northwestern looked good, Minnesota was getting their doors
blown off by Oregon. So now you've got recency bias
(22:46):
lining up here with the public. And then you also
have Northwestern sitting at that magical five wins. What's that mean?
They need another win desperately. The public knows that. If
the bookmakers know that, the public knows that, and they're
gonna make you pay a price for taking that team
(23:06):
that needs that fifth win, We're not doing it. I
am not buying it. Minnesota can play loose in this game.
Why they're already Bowl eligible and they get to play
here in Soldier Field. And then the final thing that
puts the cherry on the top of the Sunday here,
it's a sandwich game. They played Michigan last week. Northwestern
(23:29):
they play Illinois next week. They're in state rival. I'm
taking Minnesota playing plus the points, and I don't think
you're gonna need them. I have Minnesota winning this one outright,
twenty four to twenty. So let's go to the deli
and let's eat good this week, Kelly, all.
Speaker 1 (23:46):
Right, guys, you'll be able to see marcos extended version
of the Deli here on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
For those insiders, you guys are gonna get it early.
For the rest of you, guys are gonna get it
on Friday. Let's get right into these bats. I'm gonna
let VR go first. As he alluded to earlier, he
likes a dog that is possibly barking.
Speaker 4 (24:07):
Here indeed, and I'm gonna take Wisconsin. I talked about
them on my Steam report. I sent them out to
subscribers at plus eight and a half as a four
percent play, and I would not be surprised if this
gets down to a touchdown before kickoff because multiple groups
like Wisconsin.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
It makes sense. First, the splits. Let's talk about the
splits for both these teams.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
You have Illinois who's five and one at home, and
they're barely five hundred and two and two on the road.
Flip side of that, Wisconsin haven't won a single road game,
but they're three and three at home, so all their.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
Wins have come at home.
Speaker 4 (24:42):
That's a strong home field advantage when you haven't won
a single game on the road.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
So we like that for Wisconsin. Then I look at
the power ratings.
Speaker 4 (24:52):
Believe it or not, Wisconsin at three and seven is
a top fifty team power rating wise, they're still top
fIF the team. Illinois just cracked my top thirty. All right, Illinois,
with that win over Maryland, they now have back to
back wins. They were big favors to get it done obviously,
thirteen and sixteen points, but they got the Ws outperform
(25:13):
the betting market. I moved them up a little bit,
but they just cracked my top thirty. And here's why,
strength of schedule. It's not even close. Wisconsin's had the
toughest strength of schedule this entire season, and yet they
had the fifteenth most efficient defense in all of college
football and they're catching points at home. I like that
against an Illinois team where that's been their strength offense,
(25:37):
because defensively they're not all that good, barely top forty.
And Wisconsin's weakness is their offense. So now you have
a Wisconsin offense who's had problems going up against a
weaker defense than they faced.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
Remember number one, strength of schedule.
Speaker 4 (25:53):
Now it's going to get a little easier for that
offense defensive side of the ball, where they've been top
fifteen all season, they're playing an easier offense they have
to deal with than they've had lately. So all this
points do we should see Wisconsin play a lot better
than the record indicates. And let's not forget they come
in having covered three straight, so they've outperformed the betting market.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
Elate.
Speaker 4 (26:16):
I don't think they're a team that we expect to
regress ATS wise, because they already regressed.
Speaker 3 (26:23):
They're two seven and one, are there. I mean, they're
five and.
Speaker 4 (26:25):
Five over the last ten games ATS, So what's there
to do? I like Wisconsin here, take the points already released.
I don't think you're going to get a better number,
so I wouldn't wait on it too long.
Speaker 1 (26:38):
All right, Marco, your best bet kept me off of
a game that I was looking at. You know, we
have this handy dandy little sheet that I put together
every single week, and I had this team on my
long list, and I said, oh boy, I'm not going
to head to head with Marco. Can't do it. It
has been bad for me all season long. Marco, you
like the Penn State Nitney lyons over ask of this week?
(27:00):
Tell me why? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Before I tell you, well, Kelly, I gotta tell you
what's happening at wager Talk this week. We've got a
special site wide at wager Talk rest of the football season.
This is available to any of our capers. You can
get all college, all pro football through the Super Bowl.
Just three hundred and seventy nine dollars, and that includes
(27:24):
all the five percent plays. You know, those five percent
plays sell for thirty five dollars each, Guys, my five
percent plays. We hit it again last week. We had
to sweat a little bit, but Sam Darnold made us
sweat with those four interceptions, but they still got the money.
That's all the counts with the Seattle Seahawks, and that
brings the record to thirty seven and sixteen on those
(27:45):
five percent plays, and all of our plays have been
on a roll. Guys, last twenty days, we have gone
thirty two and fourteen. That's sixty nine point six percent
for basically a three week stretch and a profit of
forty six hundred and sixty eight dollars. Grab that rest
the season special and for this game, Kelly, Penn State
(28:06):
and Nebraska. These are two teams I know pretty well, obviously,
Penn State being one of those Pennsylvania teams. You know,
I follow all of those, but I also follow Nebraska
a lot, Kelly, and the reason for that is I
do a Nebraska radio show every week, so I've got
to break them down for them each week. And I've
(28:26):
been very good going with it against Nebraska and this
is a bad spot for them. Let's start with Penn State.
First of all, this is a team that showed a
lot of character last week. With the season they had,
and after having Indiana on the ropes to win that game,
and they came back and played well last week. You
(28:48):
talk about lose the same game twice. The season they had,
it would have been easy for Penn State to mail
it in and they did. And why the team absolutely
loves the interim coach. They're playing for him. He's a
guy that he wears his emotions on his sleeves. He
actually did a press conference yesterday where he actually broke
(29:08):
down and started crying in the press conference. I don't
know if that's something you like or don't like with
a coach, but it shows what this school and team
means to him, and they're playing hard for him. And
this is the last home game. We talked about that
senior day for a lot of kids and the pride
they want to give everybody at Penn State a home win.
(29:30):
Finished the home season on a good note. And then
let's look at Nebraska. They are in a horrible spot.
They had last week off, they had a bye week
and That was good for them because they were coming
off such a high prior to the bye week. They
went to UCLA. Remember they lost their quarterback Dylan Royola
(29:50):
before that game. They had to go with a first
time starter freshman, and he had the game of his life.
I think he hit his first sixteen passes in that game.
He was a dual threat quarterback. And you saw the
Rose Bowl that Saturday night and Nebraska was our five
percent in that game and he beat Ucla. The crowd
(30:10):
was probably seventy percent Nebraska. The fan base traveled to California.
It was a big game for TJ. Latif the quarterback
because he was from there. Now they've got to sit
around and read depressed clippings for two weeks. Go to
Penn State. Remember Ucla didn't know what to expect with
a game plan because they didn't have any real game
(30:32):
film on him. He got in in some mop up roles,
but that was the first start. Now Penn State's had
the luxury of seeing what they did and what was successful.
And the other big difference is TJ. Latif's not facing
the Ucla defense this week. He's facing a very good
Penn State defense and he's gonna have trouble. I like
Penn State in this one. I'm gonna go ahead and
(30:54):
lay the nine and a half. I know people looked
at this and saw Nebraska getting nine and a half
and they want to under the window.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
I'm not doing it.
Speaker 2 (31:01):
Just like we talked about that Oregon game. There's a
reason this line is this high. I'm taking Penn State.
I'm laying the points. I expect Penn State to roll big,
thirty to thirteen.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
And I just figured out the reason why this game
was so high, and that's because VR said in his
Steam segment that the sharp guys bet it. But I
think that they're really overlooking a couple of things here. Sure,
Michigan has won four straight games, but they failed to
cover their last three as a favor, just one in six,
and their last seven as a favorite against the spread.
(31:32):
As Marco mentioned, Michigan needed a walk off field goal
not only to beat US, but also Northwestern last week
at Wrigley Field. That was a gross one. But I
do think after a scare, plus, who do they play
next week? All Right? They gonna go home and play
Ohio State. I think it's gonna be tough for them
to get excited to play Maryland. This is a Terps
team that we were on early. If you guys remember
(31:54):
we had them versus Wisconsin and Washington. I still cannot
believe they lost that Washington game and they had a
six game losing streak subsequently after that. But now they
have a chance to play spoiler keep Michigan out of
the college football Playoff. I like Marilyn on the money
line because I need this team to break my heart
just one more time this year. That has been the
(32:17):
college edition of bet on It. Let's bring back in
the guys. If you guys have a comment, question or concern,
please drop it in the chat. We'll get that recap
graphic up right now. And of course, if you are
looking for that NFL show, you guys can find it
right here the Mega Show right here, and also check
out our specialty segments right here on the wager Talk
YouTube channel
Week thirteen of the college football season is upon us.
We've got those top twenty five games ready to break
down for you, those barking dogs to keep on cashing
the Deli keeps on winning. We're gonna give you that
early week Steam report with VR and of course best
Bets up next on bet on It. Time flies when
(00:36):
you're cashing tickets, and that's what we've been doing here
all season long. On bet on It. I am Kelly Stewart, Yai,
the Greek right there in the middle, Marco DiAngelo in
the third seat, the King of the Delhi. I know
because I read his standalone Deli video comments, and you
guys are absolutely loving Marco for a change. It's about
damn time you guys showed Marco some of the respect
(00:58):
he deserves. VR getting all the respect he deserves coming
up here shortly, but first I gotta break down this
while former Big twelve game now SEC matchup twelve pm
Eastern ABC. Number twenty three Missouri takes on number eleven Oklahoma,
who is a seven and a half point favorite. We've
seen some early Missouri money coming in total forty two
(01:21):
and a half and that's probably because there's an anticipation
that bo I'm gonna butcher his last name, so I'm
not gonna say it bo for Beulah for Beulah maybe
back that being said, Drew coach shrink Wwood said yesterday
and his pressler he expects the lovely third stringers dollars
to start the game now Hollington's and purposes. Miszoo beat
(01:42):
Mississippi State last week, and that was a big win
because they snapped a two game losing streak. Oklahoma, though,
boy did that defense show up big time at Alabama.
They have now defeated four of five ranked opponents this year,
and that's where I'm going in this one defense. The
Sooners defense ranks eighth in the nation, allowing just sixteen
(02:02):
point one at yards per game, and like I said,
not only limiting top offenses like Alabama last week, but
also Tennessee. I like the under forty two and a
half year. I've not been impressed with this Miszoo offense
basically since getting past Auburn there and overtime losing at Vanderbilts.
This is only their third road game of the season.
(02:25):
Give me that under forty two and a half. Marco,
You're up next. Three thirty pm Eastern CBS number seventeen,
USC at number eight Oregon. Oregon is a nine and
a half point favorite. This total seems a little low
to me. Fifty nine and a half. I expected to
see them march this one out in the sixties.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Yeah, Kelly. And when you look at this one the
knee jerk reaction, you've got two top twenty five teams
going at it, and you've got a point spread of
nine and a half. That seems a tad high with
the first glance. But if you dig a little bit deeper,
I'm gonna look at this one in see the USC
when they've been on the road.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
They've struggled.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Three of their four road games this year were not
good for them. I don't trust the USC defense, as
they have given up thirty one to Michigan State, thirty
four to Illinois, and thirty four to Notre Dame. Notre
Dame's the only real legitimate team with an offense of
those three that they gave up thirty plus, And to
be honest, in that Notre Dame game, that was one
(03:26):
of the more misleading finals, they should have won by more.
In that game, Notre Dame ended up winning by ten.
A lot of missed opportunities for Notre Dame Oregon. On
the flip side, they've hit thirty points or more in
seven of their ten games in USC. What is it
it's you know, Lincoln Riley, we know what it is.
It's the same thing we saw all those years in
(03:48):
Oklahoma in the Big Twelve. They're a finesse team. They're
all offense, no defense, and when you look at this one,
they're gonna get the football pounded down their throat. And
that's one of the reasons, Kelly, that you're probably seeing
the fifty nine and a half because Oregon can play
physical football. They like to run the football thirty five
plus finmes. I know when you think of Oregon, you
(04:10):
think of that high flying offense, but they run the
football first and it sets up the passing game. Oregon
is also you hear me refer to them all the time.
They're a two hundred club member. I love teams like this.
They rush for two thirty four, they throw for two
forty two. You can't get any more balanced than that,
and it makes it tough for defenses. And speaking of defenses,
(04:35):
take a look at the Oregon defense. They're allowing just
fourteen points per game. I think USC Yeah, they look
attractive as an underdog, but I'm not buying it. I'm
going with Oregon here, thirty four to twenty. I'm gonna
go ahead and lay the nine and a half.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
Now, before you guys complain about this game saying it's
not a primetime game, Marco did the schedule this week.
So if you don't like that we're talking about this game,
this is your fault. Marco PM Eastern ESPN number twenty two,
pit At number sixteen. Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is a
two and a half point favorite. Total sixty two here
and a half. VR you you nailed it last week
(05:11):
you said pitt is just not a top twenty five team.
Yet they're still in the top twenty five and this
is a really short number here.
Speaker 4 (05:17):
Yeah, and here's the beauty Georgia Tech's phon here. That's
what's that's the greatness of this game. This is so easy, listen.
I'm just gonna keep it simple. I don't want to
waste the viewer's time. Right now, coming into this week
on bed on It, I'm twenty eight and eight on
the show.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
In college football, that's seventy eight percent. We're almost eighty percent.
Speaker 4 (05:36):
So obviously using them my power ratings with my market
read has produced profit. More importantly, I was up about
eighty units the first of October, up over one hundred
units now in Nove. One hundred and thirty units forgive
me in college football now in November. So the power
ratings get stronger and stronger as the year progresses. That's
been proven, and the same thing is going to be
(05:58):
in college basketball. Butt him back to this game real quickly.
It gets right back to my power ratings. It's a mistake.
Pittsburgh's the higher power rated team. That's the bottom line.
The better team is Pittsburgh. I have them in my
top forty. Georgia Tech just cracked my top fifty in
power rating right now, believe it or not. They've had
(06:18):
the seventieth toughest strength of schedule compared to Pittsburgh's fifty
eighth toughest strength of schedule. So Pittsburgh had the tougher
strength of schedule, and with the tougher strength of schedule,
they've had the twenty fourth most efficient offense compared to
the thirtieth most efficient offense. For Georgia Tech with the
easier schedule. So offensively, my numbers tell me that power
(06:40):
rating wise, overall, Pittsburgh's the better team. Offensively, Pittsburgh's the
better team. Now let's look at the defense again. Georgia
Tech had the weaker.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
Strength of schedule. They have the sixtieth most efficient defense.
Speaker 4 (06:54):
Pittsburgh tougher strength of schedule, had the fifty fifth most
efficient defense two week defenses, and yet Pittsburgh's still better.
So offense defense, overall, Pittsburgh's the better team.
Speaker 3 (07:08):
So what does Georgia Tech have? They have home field advantage.
Speaker 4 (07:11):
What's Georgia Tech's home field advantage, Well, over the last
three to five years. It's worth two point one points exactly.
So I have Pittsburgh the better team, wipe out the
home field advantage, and this game should be a pick them.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
At worst.
Speaker 4 (07:25):
You're giving me plus money on the money line. It's
an obvious bet you got to take. The only reason
I gave this out to subscribers that plus three was
because we were able to get it at a discount
earlier in the week. Otherwise this would be a money
line play points not needed. Points are for Pussy's in
this game. Because we got the better team again. The
(07:46):
only advantage Georgia Tech has is that they're playing at home,
and that's worth about two point one points. That's it
everywhere else. Pittsburgh's the better team, and they're coming off
playing Notre Dame, which it was probably like now slow
motion going up against Georgia Tech. Compared to playing Notre Dame.
Now you're playing a team in slow motion, it'll be
(08:08):
a lot easier week for Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (08:09):
Gimme Pittsburgh plus the points. You won't need it money
line all day.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
I just audibly laughed out loud. Good thing I was
muted comments section. We appreciate you guys every single week
here on bet on It. You always keep me laughing
as well. So if you guys have something to say,
good bad, in different drop it below. We're gonna run
it right back with VR. Here kind of an early
preview if you guys are new here on bet on
(08:35):
It of the steam room that he does on Sundays,
and it kind of gives you an idea of what
the wise guys are betting early, what the books may
need early, and if you'd like to join that steam
room this Sunday, if you are a wager Talk insider.
You get to join it for free. To become a
Wager Talking insider, WT Dot Buzz Backslash Insiders, just two
dollars and ninety nine cents a month is going to
(08:57):
get you early access to things like the Steamroom. It
comes out early, You get early access to Marco's Deli.
Lots more perks coming down the pipeline. I just got
to figure out some different structures. Listen, I've been working
hard for you guys this football season. Just give me,
give me a couple of days are I'm gonna let
you do what you do best. Steam Report College Football
(09:18):
Week thirteen.
Speaker 3 (09:19):
Yeah, the steam Room's awesome during football.
Speaker 4 (09:22):
We just do it on Sunday, the hour plus leading
into the early kickoffs, and we go through every NFL game,
at least all the early games, sign total player props.
That's the extra stuff that get Being in the Steamroom
gets you. Because there's so time sensitive, I can't even
release the subscribers those player props. We also get the
plus eb teasers those last fifteen minutes, again a lot
(09:44):
of time. There's a handful of them. I can't narrow
them down for subscribers, but for guys in the steam room.
They're able to pick the ones that they like most,
been able to make a lot of money off of those.
And finally, I'm there to answer all your questions on
any game, any money management topic, anything like that. Again,
I work for you. And after football, it'll be on
(10:05):
Saturdays with college basketball. That'll be a lot of fun
because we'll be doing a lot of live betting as
stuff comes in. Now, I narrowed down, like usual, ten
of the most legit steam moves where I'm not seeing resistance,
where I'm seeing multiple groups on the same side, and
where I still think there's a little bit of ev
because we're not seeing that resistance come back yet if
(10:28):
you agree with it again, totals come out Thursdays. I've
said that every single week. You could pick those off
easily by watching your odds logic screen tomorrow, all right,
start off all on Saturday one nineteen Rutgers plus thirty
three and thirty two. They're fading Ohio State, which was
my best bet last week. Again, number one team in
(10:48):
the country did what they're supposed to do. They've outperformed
the betting market, covering every single week except once wise,
Guys think it'll be twice. They took Rutgers Old Dominion
game one thirty one minus ten, minus ten and a half,
minus eleven against Georgia Southern one forty three Michigan laying
double digits there, twelve, thirteen, thirteen and a half against
Maryland Toledo one forty eight, twenty six and twenty seven
(11:12):
against ball State. Again, those number if you like that side,
those shouldn't scare you. Like once you get over that
minus twenty range, there's a lot of variants. The difference
between a minus twenty two and a minus twenty three
is negligible. The difference between the minus two and a
minus three two different completely bets. One fifty five Missouri
(11:32):
plus nine and a half plus nine plus eight and
a half and then plus eight against Oklahoma, one seventy
three Arkansas against Texas.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
They took the ten.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
They took the nine and a half's out as well,
Louisville playing SMU good game there if they took the
three and a half.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
More importantly, they took the three.
Speaker 4 (11:47):
Took that key number, So it wasn't just one of
those games where there's three and a half's out there,
key number three. Let's pick those off. No, they hit
the three as well. Wisconsin Illinois they took the nine
and a half, took the eight and a half. We'll
talk about that game later. Two ten LSU laying the
points against Western Kentucky. A meaningless game, but we're at
(12:07):
that part of the year where style points actually matter.
Three factors that you can't quantify in college football that
matter right now. That's bowls and playoff implications, Senior Day actually.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
Matters, and style points move up in the rankings.
Speaker 4 (12:23):
Those things are difficult to quantify, but they matter once
you get into October November, forgive me. And finally, last
game two nineteen New Mexico minus two, minus two and
a half, more importantly minus three as well. They laid
the three there against air Force. That's the steam Room
read for this week's bet on It. Jump in the
steam room on Sunday, and I'll be on Last Call
(12:44):
Saturday going over college football and college basketball as well.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
Yes, you guys can catch VR with me both days
this week, and I'm gonna be covering for Aeriel on
NFL Sunday as well. All right, Marco, I'm gonna let
you go first here on the Barking dog segment. You
have been absolute crushing this spot, and you took a
dog this week that I had on my radar. But
you're gonna have to convince me to trust them. I'm
(13:09):
not gonna lie. I had them on my long lesson.
I thought I can't trust Colorado Marco.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
Well, Kelly, I'll just give you a preview to the
NFL show. You're gonna have to trust the process several
times this week. Okay, with some of these games, and
we're gonna start with Colorado. And yes, Colorado looks ugly
as hell, they've lost four of their last five games.
But I'm really looking at the scheduling spot here. Arizona
State is coming off of SCARE last week, the only
(13:37):
won by two points as a ten and a half
point favorite. And normally you hear me say I love
taking good teams coming off of SCARE because you get
a focused aft for the next week, and that would
normally be what I'm here. But is VR just said
in his last segment, there's other things you got to
look at when you get to the final two weeks.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
Of the season.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
Some of those things are teams out of the playoffs,
do they have something to play for last home game
and rivalry games, and all those rivalry games come up
next week Thanksgiving weekend. Well, Arizona State has that big
rivalry game. They play Arizona next week, and I think
they're gonna look right past this Colorado team that as
(14:21):
ugly as can be. But this is Colorado's last home game,
so I look for them, and they are not going
to a bowl game. Okay, they're already have their seven losses,
so they can't go to a bowl. This is their
bowl game in essence, and I will take a home
team in that spot, whether it be a rivalry game
(14:41):
or the last home game, I will look to them.
And that is the case here. And with everything that
I just said and nothing to lose, what's that mean
for coach Sanders, Well, he can take all the chances
he wants. Sometimes you take chances at backfires. But if
I got a dog and they're taking chances knowing that
they're going to give me everything they got, I'll go
(15:01):
ahead and ride dad Dog. This is more of the spot, Kelly,
than the team, But everything that I look at adds
up to I've got to take Colorado with the inflated
number at home. I think just goes right down to
the wire, and let's call it Colorado twenty seven to
twenty four.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
All right, I'm gonna make VR wait a minute, because
he took my barking dog for this weekend. I'm gonna
give you, guys an even grosser barking dog, just an
absolute ugly like Kelly, Why would you do this? And
that's because I've had these double digit dogs all season
that I've left off my list, and now I gotta
take this one. Oklahoma State over two touchdowns at Central Florida,
(15:42):
a team who has lost six of their last seven games,
and now you want to lay double digits with them.
I don't understand it. Over the last three games, the
Knights have been outscored by an average of twenty three
points per game. I get it. You guys are gonna say, oh,
but Oklahoma's only scored scoring an average of fourteen point
four points game here in conference play. But that would
(16:03):
mean that UCF would have to essentially put up thirty
points here, thirty four to fourteen to cover this number
with the hook, the two touchdowns and a hook here.
I get it. Oklahoma State is not a fun team.
They fired their coach early but they've showed some fight
and this team has not quit. They wanted to beat
(16:23):
up on Kansas. They didn't get the win, but they
tried and against last week versus my Kansas State Wildcats,
I think UCF is reeling. I think the Cowboys smells
some blood in the water, and as Marco said, this
is an opportunity to get that kind of monkey off
your back and beat a conference opponent. Zane Flores forty
six of sixty four in the last two weeks seventy
(16:45):
one point nine percent. I think that the Cowboys are
live here. I would not be shocked in the slightest
to see Oklahoma State knocking on the door late in
the fourth quarter. Give me the two touchdowns and the hook,
and of course give me just a little bit on
that money line. V are go ahead and tell everybody
why you like Baylor this.
Speaker 4 (17:05):
Week, I do think And disclaimer, I haven't gotten to
the window with it yet. I haven't released it to
subscribers yet, but I only have two dogs that I.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
Was leaning this week.
Speaker 4 (17:16):
One I released which I'll use as my best bet.
So I was stuck with this one, and it's Bailor.
And here's why I haven't gotten to the window yet
because I'm not seeing six and a half at my
sharpest book. I have a different book that I use
the shade for different markets that I believe books the
sharpest stuff. And when it comes to college football, the
(17:36):
one book that I'm looking at, they have them at seven.
Speaker 3 (17:40):
Juice.
Speaker 4 (17:40):
On the Arizona side, I don't like it. I wanted
to see him at six and a half. If that
was six and a half, this would be a four
percent play, believe me. And you're saying, wait, you're getting
more points now at seven, why wouldn't it now be
a move? It's because of how I'm reading the market. Listen,
the bottom line is this Arizona. The only difference between
these two teams. The big difference is the record, the result.
(18:02):
But when you look at them on paper, the predictable data,
they're not all that far apart. In fact, power rating wise,
I only have them sixty seven slots different. I have
Arizona as the fortieth power rated team and I have
Baylor as the forty sixth, then about forty seventh, tied
right around there, forty six, forty seventh, so they're very
(18:24):
comparable in power rating and the difference in records come
down to the schedule. Arizona's had a very easy strength
of schedule. In fact, it's the fiftieth toughest in college
football compared the Bailor, which has a top twenty five
strength of schedule.
Speaker 3 (18:41):
That's the difference in the records.
Speaker 4 (18:43):
But when you look offensively, way superior offense on the
Baylor's side, fifteenth, they're a top fifteen offense with that
strength of schedule compared to a barely top forty, they're
thirty ninth Arizona Offensively, defense, that's where Baylor had the problems.
They're not they're barely in the top eighty, but still
(19:04):
Arizona is only in the top forty. So again they
may be two x better defensively, but they've had a
lot easier strength of schedule as well. So Arizona is
now going to go I mean, Baylor's going up against
a much easier offense.
Speaker 3 (19:18):
Their weakness has.
Speaker 4 (19:19):
Been defense and they're going up against a very weak offense.
So that's credit to Baylor. Strength of schedule to Baylor,
offensive side of the ball, advantage to Baylor, and they're
catching all these points.
Speaker 3 (19:30):
And when you look at Arizona, even.
Speaker 4 (19:33):
Home field advantage nothing, it's worth what not less than
two point one, so they have less of a home
field advantage.
Speaker 3 (19:40):
And Georgia Tech had over the last couple of seasons.
Speaker 4 (19:43):
So yeah, I like Baylor plus the seven points, and
it comes down the strength of schedule.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
That's the difference in the record. And I'm going to
share something real quickly.
Speaker 4 (19:51):
College basketball a perfect example because we solve this. This
reminds me of the Arkansas bet that Marco had last
week where against LSU, where it was just.
Speaker 3 (20:00):
The record, but when you looked on paper.
Speaker 4 (20:03):
And that the actual stats that matter, they were a
lot closer than the records indicate. And something that stuck
out to me today when I was looking at college
basketball and I'm sorry, I know it's a college football show,
but they have Alabama not even in it ranked I
don't think and I can tell you guys right now
my power ratings in college basketball number one Duke Auburn
is about uh what do I have? Auburn one point
(20:27):
worse than Duke one and a half point worse than Duke.
Behind Auburn is Houston, Who's a half point worse behind
Houston is Alabama and Gonzaga. So Alabama's a top five
power rated team, but because they've lost the game already,
you don't even see them in the rankings. I don't
think same thing happens in college football. So it's Baylor
teams a lot better than their five and five record,
(20:48):
and let's not forget.
Speaker 3 (20:49):
They want to be bowl eligible. Big game. Take the
points plus seven.
Speaker 4 (20:53):
Hopefully I see some six and a half's with the
Sharper books, and it gives me more confidence and we
could get the window. But Baylor sprinkle money line my
dog good week.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
Yeah, that's really close to probably making my three team moneyline. Partly,
I like a lot of double digit dogs this week,
and Marco, some of them match up with your sandwich spots,
or at least we'll call them partial sandwich spots, maybe
some look ahead spots. And that's what you do on
the delis. You show everybody where these different situational spots
come into play, whether it's a sandwich spot, whether it's
(21:25):
a trap game, whether it's a look ahead. Eight winning weeks.
That is pretty impressive this season, last week three and two,
now thirty five and eighteen on the season. Tell me
who you like this week in that good old Deli spot.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Yeah, well, Kelly, I'm going to be involved in a
game against the team that you've made some money with
this year, but they're not in their money making role.
And we're taking a look at Minnesota and Northwestern and
the team I'm talking about that Kelly has made money
with is that Northwestern team, but they're not good as
a favorite. And this is an absolute love this situation.
(22:02):
In this one, Northwestern is coming off a gut wrenching
loss to Michigan last week, and ironically, they're playing at
the same field. Remember they played at Soldier Field last week.
They're playing there again this week. And you lose to
Michigan when you've got the lead late and Michigan ends
up hitting a game winning field goal with two seconds.
You know what I'm gonna say next. This is the
(22:23):
poster child for lose the same game twice. Now you
look at what's going on. Because they played so well
last week against Michigan, you're getting an inflated line with Northwestern.
And although Northwestern looked good, Minnesota was getting their doors
blown off by Oregon. So now you've got recency bias
(22:46):
lining up here with the public. And then you also
have Northwestern sitting at that magical five wins. What's that mean?
They need another win desperately. The public knows that. If
the bookmakers know that, the public knows that, and they're
gonna make you pay a price for taking that team
(23:06):
that needs that fifth win, We're not doing it. I
am not buying it. Minnesota can play loose in this game.
Why they're already Bowl eligible and they get to play
here in Soldier Field. And then the final thing that
puts the cherry on the top of the Sunday here,
it's a sandwich game. They played Michigan last week. Northwestern
(23:29):
they play Illinois next week. They're in state rival. I'm
taking Minnesota playing plus the points, and I don't think
you're gonna need them. I have Minnesota winning this one outright,
twenty four to twenty. So let's go to the deli
and let's eat good this week, Kelly, all.
Speaker 1 (23:46):
Right, guys, you'll be able to see marcos extended version
of the Deli here on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
For those insiders, you guys are gonna get it early.
For the rest of you, guys are gonna get it
on Friday. Let's get right into these bats. I'm gonna
let VR go first. As he alluded to earlier, he
likes a dog that is possibly barking.
Speaker 4 (24:07):
Here indeed, and I'm gonna take Wisconsin. I talked about
them on my Steam report. I sent them out to
subscribers at plus eight and a half as a four
percent play, and I would not be surprised if this
gets down to a touchdown before kickoff because multiple groups
like Wisconsin.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
It makes sense. First, the splits. Let's talk about the
splits for both these teams.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
You have Illinois who's five and one at home, and
they're barely five hundred and two and two on the road.
Flip side of that, Wisconsin haven't won a single road game,
but they're three and three at home, so all their.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
Wins have come at home.
Speaker 4 (24:42):
That's a strong home field advantage when you haven't won
a single game on the road.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
So we like that for Wisconsin. Then I look at
the power ratings.
Speaker 4 (24:52):
Believe it or not, Wisconsin at three and seven is
a top fifty team power rating wise, they're still top
fIF the team. Illinois just cracked my top thirty. All right, Illinois,
with that win over Maryland, they now have back to
back wins. They were big favors to get it done obviously,
thirteen and sixteen points, but they got the Ws outperform
(25:13):
the betting market. I moved them up a little bit,
but they just cracked my top thirty. And here's why,
strength of schedule. It's not even close. Wisconsin's had the
toughest strength of schedule this entire season, and yet they
had the fifteenth most efficient defense in all of college
football and they're catching points at home. I like that
against an Illinois team where that's been their strength offense,
(25:37):
because defensively they're not all that good, barely top forty.
And Wisconsin's weakness is their offense. So now you have
a Wisconsin offense who's had problems going up against a
weaker defense than they faced.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
Remember number one, strength of schedule.
Speaker 4 (25:53):
Now it's going to get a little easier for that
offense defensive side of the ball, where they've been top
fifteen all season, they're playing an easier offense they have
to deal with than they've had lately. So all this
points do we should see Wisconsin play a lot better
than the record indicates. And let's not forget they come
in having covered three straight, so they've outperformed the betting market.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
Elate.
Speaker 4 (26:16):
I don't think they're a team that we expect to
regress ATS wise, because they already regressed.
Speaker 3 (26:23):
They're two seven and one, are there. I mean, they're
five and.
Speaker 4 (26:25):
Five over the last ten games ATS, So what's there
to do? I like Wisconsin here, take the points already released.
I don't think you're going to get a better number,
so I wouldn't wait on it too long.
Speaker 1 (26:38):
All right, Marco, your best bet kept me off of
a game that I was looking at. You know, we
have this handy dandy little sheet that I put together
every single week, and I had this team on my
long list, and I said, oh boy, I'm not going
to head to head with Marco. Can't do it. It
has been bad for me all season long. Marco, you
like the Penn State Nitney lyons over ask of this week?
(27:00):
Tell me why? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Before I tell you, well, Kelly, I gotta tell you
what's happening at wager Talk this week. We've got a
special site wide at wager Talk rest of the football season.
This is available to any of our capers. You can
get all college, all pro football through the Super Bowl.
Just three hundred and seventy nine dollars, and that includes
(27:24):
all the five percent plays. You know, those five percent
plays sell for thirty five dollars each, Guys, my five
percent plays. We hit it again last week. We had
to sweat a little bit, but Sam Darnold made us
sweat with those four interceptions, but they still got the money.
That's all the counts with the Seattle Seahawks, and that
brings the record to thirty seven and sixteen on those
(27:45):
five percent plays, and all of our plays have been
on a roll. Guys, last twenty days, we have gone
thirty two and fourteen. That's sixty nine point six percent
for basically a three week stretch and a profit of
forty six hundred and sixty eight dollars. Grab that rest
the season special and for this game, Kelly, Penn State
(28:06):
and Nebraska. These are two teams I know pretty well, obviously,
Penn State being one of those Pennsylvania teams. You know,
I follow all of those, but I also follow Nebraska
a lot, Kelly, and the reason for that is I
do a Nebraska radio show every week, so I've got
to break them down for them each week. And I've
(28:26):
been very good going with it against Nebraska and this
is a bad spot for them. Let's start with Penn State.
First of all, this is a team that showed a
lot of character last week. With the season they had,
and after having Indiana on the ropes to win that game,
and they came back and played well last week. You
(28:48):
talk about lose the same game twice. The season they had,
it would have been easy for Penn State to mail
it in and they did. And why the team absolutely
loves the interim coach. They're playing for him. He's a
guy that he wears his emotions on his sleeves. He
actually did a press conference yesterday where he actually broke
(29:08):
down and started crying in the press conference. I don't
know if that's something you like or don't like with
a coach, but it shows what this school and team
means to him, and they're playing hard for him. And
this is the last home game. We talked about that
senior day for a lot of kids and the pride
they want to give everybody at Penn State a home win.
(29:30):
Finished the home season on a good note. And then
let's look at Nebraska. They are in a horrible spot.
They had last week off, they had a bye week
and That was good for them because they were coming
off such a high prior to the bye week. They
went to UCLA. Remember they lost their quarterback Dylan Royola
(29:50):
before that game. They had to go with a first
time starter freshman, and he had the game of his life.
I think he hit his first sixteen passes in that game.
He was a dual threat quarterback. And you saw the
Rose Bowl that Saturday night and Nebraska was our five
percent in that game and he beat Ucla. The crowd
(30:10):
was probably seventy percent Nebraska. The fan base traveled to California.
It was a big game for TJ. Latif the quarterback
because he was from there. Now they've got to sit
around and read depressed clippings for two weeks. Go to
Penn State. Remember Ucla didn't know what to expect with
a game plan because they didn't have any real game
(30:32):
film on him. He got in in some mop up roles,
but that was the first start. Now Penn State's had
the luxury of seeing what they did and what was successful.
And the other big difference is TJ. Latif's not facing
the Ucla defense this week. He's facing a very good
Penn State defense and he's gonna have trouble. I like
Penn State in this one. I'm gonna go ahead and
(30:54):
lay the nine and a half. I know people looked
at this and saw Nebraska getting nine and a half
and they want to under the window.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
I'm not doing it.
Speaker 2 (31:01):
Just like we talked about that Oregon game. There's a
reason this line is this high. I'm taking Penn State.
I'm laying the points. I expect Penn State to roll big,
thirty to thirteen.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
And I just figured out the reason why this game
was so high, and that's because VR said in his
Steam segment that the sharp guys bet it. But I
think that they're really overlooking a couple of things here. Sure,
Michigan has won four straight games, but they failed to
cover their last three as a favor, just one in six,
and their last seven as a favorite against the spread.
(31:32):
As Marco mentioned, Michigan needed a walk off field goal
not only to beat US, but also Northwestern last week
at Wrigley Field. That was a gross one. But I
do think after a scare, plus, who do they play
next week? All Right? They gonna go home and play
Ohio State. I think it's gonna be tough for them
to get excited to play Maryland. This is a Terps
team that we were on early. If you guys remember
(31:54):
we had them versus Wisconsin and Washington. I still cannot
believe they lost that Washington game and they had a
six game losing streak subsequently after that. But now they
have a chance to play spoiler keep Michigan out of
the college football Playoff. I like Marilyn on the money
line because I need this team to break my heart
just one more time this year. That has been the
(32:17):
college edition of bet on It. Let's bring back in
the guys. If you guys have a comment, question or concern,
please drop it in the chat. We'll get that recap
graphic up right now. And of course, if you are
looking for that NFL show, you guys can find it
right here the Mega Show right here, and also check
out our specialty segments right here on the wager Talk
YouTube channel
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