November 26, 2025 • 35 mins
Join Kelly, Marco and Gianni every Wednesday for Bet On It as we break down the Week 14 college football slate from a variety of betting angles.
Introduction 00:00
Ohio State vs Michigan 01:12
Miami vs Pitt 03:17
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee 06:03
Gianni’s Steam Report 10:00
Barking Dogs 12:24
Marco Barko 14:14
VR’s Barking Dog 16:41
KIV’s Barking Dog 20:38
Marco’s Deli 21:50
Marco’s Trap Game of the Week 22:00
Best Bets 24:11
VR’s Best Bet 24:30
Marco D’Angelo’s Best Bet 28:33
KIV’s Best Bet 32:42
Recap 34:50
Introduction 00:00
Ohio State vs Michigan 01:12
Miami vs Pitt 03:17
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee 06:03
Gianni’s Steam Report 10:00
Barking Dogs 12:24
Marco Barko 14:14
VR’s Barking Dog 16:41
KIV’s Barking Dog 20:38
Marco’s Deli 21:50
Marco’s Trap Game of the Week 22:00
Best Bets 24:11
VR’s Best Bet 24:30
Marco D’Angelo’s Best Bet 28:33
KIV’s Best Bet 32:42
Recap 34:50
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Deli has still been red hot in his back
open for business here in week fourteen of college football.
Those barking dogs are going to keep us cashing through
the end of the regular season and hopefully on to
those bowl games. The Seam Report from VR get ready
to rapid fire write down all those sharp plays and
(00:20):
of course, best bets on an incredible college football weekend
up next on bet on it. There are tons of
(00:43):
top twenty five games this weekend, so it was hard
for me to choose, but I just went with the
Saturday games because I need this show to have a
little bit of longevity with the Thanksgiving holiday, So we
are going to touch on a couple of those Friday
games here, at least from a conversational personective, I'm Kelly Stewart,
joined by YACHTI the Greek Marco DiAngelo, and.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
We're gonna get right into this.
Speaker 1 (01:07):
I'm up first, and this is a game that's well, frankly,
I didn't think would be that interesting, but it sure is.
Twelve pm Eastern on Fox number fifteen, Michigan at number
one Ohio State Ohio State nine and a half ten
Here on the Odds Lotic screen forty five and a
half is the total.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
This is why it's interesting.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Michigan has won and covered each of the last four meetings,
including last year as nineteen and a half point road underdogs,
they won thirteen to ten in Columbus, Ohio State. Sure,
they control their own destiny. If they win here, they're
going to the Big Ten championship game, but a loss
would keep them at home next weekend. Here's my question, though,
(01:47):
do they really care about a conference championship. Sure they
care about beating Michigan because there are huge rivals, but
this team's already looking ahead to the college football playoff.
They also have a couple guys that are banged up.
Jeremiah and Carnell Tate both both missed last weekend against Rutgers.
Ryan Day has not alluded to whether they will be
(02:08):
available for this game, so definitely check their status prior
to making any wagers. Michigan back to that Big Ten
Conference game still as an outside shot. To make it,
they need to win here and hope that Washington can
beat Oregon. We'll get to Washington here in just a
little bit. But for my friends at the gold Sheet,
(02:28):
if you're interested in the total since twenty nineteen, there
have been nine instances with two to nine plus win
teams playing the final week of the regular season, and
that includes nine Michigan Ohio State games ours four of
the nine excuse me, All nine of those games have
gone over the total by an average margin of nine
point two points per game. That system also applies to
(02:51):
Georgia Tech. Georgia, I think this is a lot of
points here for a game in which I bet against
Michigan last week in hopes they would be looking ahead here.
Not a huge opinion, but I do lean Michigan in
this one. Maybe Marco's got a bigger opinion on this
next game another noon Eastern on ABC number thirteen, Miami
(03:14):
at number twenty four, Pittsburgh. Almost a touchdown here, Marco.
Fifty nine and a half is the total.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Yeah, Kelly and pitt backed up what their coach said
two weeks ago. Remember when he said, prior to the
Notre Dame game, I don't care if we lose one
hundred and three to ten. The only thing that matters
is the next two ACC games. Well, part one, they
took care of business. They beat Georgia Tech forty two
to twenty eight, but Georgia Tech's not as good as
(03:43):
people thought. VR told you that last week with his
power ratings. You saw it on the field with Pitt
dismantling them. Pitt was able to have their way because
Georgia Tech defense isn't that good. Miami is a good defense.
But you know what's even better that Miami offense and
that Miami defense. They've held every opponent but one to
(04:06):
twenty four points or fewer, and they've held seven of
their opponents to seventeen or less. When it comes to
stopping the Miami offense, Pitt's gonna have problems because Miami
has scored thirty four or more six times this year.
The Miami passing attack by far the best passing attack
that Pitt has seen this year. And let's not forget
(04:30):
you got to point it out, but Miami might need
style points, so they're not gonna take their foot off
the gas in this one. I'm gonna go ahead and
take Miami. I'm gonna lay the six and a half
against my Pitt Panthers. Yeah, I bet against my teams
as much as I go with them. That's why I
love Delly, And now I'm feeling you're paying that I
(04:52):
went against Chicago in our Thanksgiving video. Wow, I get
some pushback from the comments section. I got a bet
with your head and not your heart. And whenever we
make a play against the team, it's not because we
don't like that team. We just like the other play
better that week.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
Yeah, that's funny.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
I always get that, Oh, you hate so and so team,
you hate this team, And I'm like, now, I just
enjoy betting against them because they're not very good against
the spread.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Are you are up next?
Speaker 1 (05:22):
We got three thirty pm Eastern on ESPN, number twelve,
Vander Built catching just a round a field goal at
number eighteen tennessee sixty four and a half. Here is
the total before we get into the breakdown here. Do
you think Diego Pavia has a shot to win the Heisman?
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Have you seen any Heisman action?
Speaker 1 (05:42):
I know that he's been in the conversation in the
mix as well as saying as well as Mendoza and
of course Jeremiah Love.
Speaker 4 (05:51):
No, I haven't heard an I haven't seen any sharp
action on him at all, and I haven't seen any
futures on Heisman. And you think this year that would
be the case, especially since they got it wrong at
the beginning, and the odds have been shifting so much
that you would get at least some of the betting
send to begause. I'm sure sharps have gotten ino, you know,
(06:13):
sharp betters in college football have gotten down, But none
of the groups that I provide accounts for have gotten
involved with the Heisman race at all.
Speaker 5 (06:22):
And I don't know.
Speaker 4 (06:23):
If he's a front runner. They say he is at
least right now. But I think Vandy's phony and that
that's the bottom line. That's that's the problem, and I
think they're gonna get exposed eventually, if not this week,
and that shot of the Heisman I think goes with it.
Speaker 5 (06:43):
Here here's the bottom line. I've been talking.
Speaker 4 (06:45):
About Vandy being over valued, over ranked this entire season,
and I know some of you guys don't like hearing
me use the word power rating over and over, but
that's all it comes down to. At the end of
the day, it's my numbers versus their numbers, and which
one is more efficient at predicting the true implied win
(07:08):
probability between Team AY and Team B. That's the bottom line.
We could talk ex'es and nose, we could talk players names.
We could talk all this, all this shit, it doesn't matter.
Speaker 5 (07:17):
At the end of the day.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
What's the point spread, What should it be? Is there
a difference and do you fire?
Speaker 5 (07:24):
That's it.
Speaker 4 (07:25):
Everything else is just noise. And when you come in
with a thirty and nine record on bed on it
my analysis should be because I said so, and that's it.
Speaker 5 (07:33):
I wanted to be a dick, not even give one.
Speaker 4 (07:37):
But with that said, let's give you a little analysis.
Here's the bottom line. Tennessee the better team at least
ten spots power rating wise better. I have Tennessee right
now in my top fifteen. I don't have Vanderbilt in
my top twenty, all right, And Vanderbilts had a twenty
fifth toughest schedule, and with that they've had teeth most
(08:00):
deficient offense, forty fifth most efficient defense. Tennessee's had the
eighteenth toughest schedule, so tougher than Vanderbilt. And they've had
the number one defense, so the number one offense. Forgive me,
number one most efficient offense. And now they're going up
against a forty five length defense. They're gonna have a
(08:21):
good time on Saturday against Vanderbilt's defense.
Speaker 5 (08:23):
That's for sure.
Speaker 4 (08:24):
It's gonna force that Vanderbilt offense to try to get
it done. They're gonna have a problem. Like I said,
they had a tough strength of schedule. Tennessee defense is
the weak side of the ball. But I don't think
Vandy's gonna be able to do too much damage there.
Tennessee minus two and a half juice is a gift.
Minus three is a gift. They win this one by
(08:45):
double digits. Don't tease Vanderbilt.
Speaker 5 (08:48):
It's not enough.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
You're seeing the total getting steamed over because Tennessee is
gonna have an easy time putting points on the board.
I haven't gotten the window with it. That's the disclaimer again.
I can give you what I had for the show
between now and kick off. Hopefully I get confirmation, but
right now I do like Tennessee just haven't fired.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
All right, VR, I'm gonna let you fire all of
your stuff here in a minute on the Steam Report.
But first I want to let you guys know this
week you can get a free copy of the gold
Sheet right now, go right over to this website. Dan
Alexander's gonna put it on the screen for me, and
it's a picks and parlays website actually, and it's available
(09:36):
also on the gold sheet page, whichever is easiest for you.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
Right here is your website to get a free copy
of this.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
Week's gold sheet.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
All right, VR, Like I do on Last Call every
single Saturday, I just let you go and do your.
Speaker 6 (09:51):
Thing and then I'll let the comments sort it out afterwards.
All right, let's run through five for Friday, five for Saturday.
I'll tell you only two games have gotten resistance, little
high profile, so we're gonna touch on them.
Speaker 4 (10:05):
Start off with Friday's action. And this is a big
weekend again, You're gonna see a lot of movement day
of the game. People are all from work, TV, games, drinking, betting,
and betting syndicates. Wise, guys, sharps all know this money
moves lines just as much as respect So when a
(10:26):
lot of money gets bet and moves some of these
lines out of whack, that's where you see a lot
of that late steam come in. That's why I haven't
released all that much. The market changes based on participants,
and this week's participants are a little bit different than
last week's. It's more like bull season kind of, so
keep that in mind. Three sixteen under forty seven and
(10:49):
a half, all the way down the under forty five
Ohio versus Buffalo, then Mississippi, Mississippi State, they took the
points plus eight and plus.
Speaker 5 (10:57):
Seven and a half.
Speaker 4 (10:58):
Haven't touched it at that key number seven three nineteen
Iowa minus to five and a half and minus five
and five and a half against Nebraska. Then three twenty
four Kansas plus thirteen and a half, twelve and a half,
all the way down to like eleven and a half.
I think against Utah they laid the Georgia minus thirteen
(11:18):
and a half against Georgia Tech, we talked about how
Georgia Tech was phony.
Speaker 5 (11:23):
Then Saturday, three thirty nine.
Speaker 4 (11:25):
Florida State plus two plus one and a half plus
one against Florida three forty one Texas Tech minus twenty
one twenty two to twenty three. But at twenty four
the West Virginia money started coming in. So that's one
of those where there is resistance. UH three fifty three
Kentucky plus four plus three and a half.
Speaker 5 (11:45):
Haven't touched the key number.
Speaker 4 (11:46):
Of three versus Louisville three fifty eight South Carolina minus
two and two and a half. But Clemson at that
key number of plus three that sticks out a lot
three sixty one, Wake Farns plus three took the two
and a half's out and took the one and a
half's out as well versus Duke. That's your steam report
(12:07):
for college football. That's the luck this weekend. A lot
of money to be made out there throughout the entire weekend,
for sure.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
All right, guys, we're gonna see you on Saturday with
VR going over some last minute steam. Maybe we can
codify some of those as potential winners. Speaking of winners,
this has been our best segment, not only in college
football but in the NFL. And mainly that's my fault
because the best bets in the NFL segment have sucks
so bad. But my barking dogs have been really good.
(12:37):
And I'm going back with the same dog that I
went with last week, Marco. The only reason why is
because Marco took one of my dogs and VR took
the other one, and I can't really decide here on
my three G money line parlay. Maybe Marco can get
me to the window with the Hokies.
Speaker 3 (12:54):
All right, Well, you know what, if you've been doing
so good with your barking dogs and me and VRS.
He'd taken ones you wanted. Shouldn't you be thanking us
because where you're landing's winning. Ah tell you women, you
can't ever make them happy?
Speaker 5 (13:08):
All right, a problem, here's let.
Speaker 2 (13:12):
Me let me just let me just say this, here's
the problem.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
If you will, I'm the host of the show, okay,
and I want to showcase you guys as not only experts,
but your talents and give you guys the best games
to give to our audience. If I came on here
and gave out the same barking dog as you, these
people would riot Marco.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
You're gonna lose their minds.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
Now, m's more information. They want your opinion, it's more information.
There's so much randomness. The show is kel I've had
a winning year on shows and I've gotten buried in
real life, and I've had a where I've gotten crushed
on shows and had the best season. Like, there's a
lot of randomness involved.
Speaker 5 (13:50):
You know that it is.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
And there's a lot of dogs barking every single weekend.
That's why we love college football. Last week and I
gave out two stingers of a dog, though I at
least I didn't go ahead to.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
Head with Marco. Okay, you guys, we're learning. This is
called growth.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
Marco, tell me why you like Virginia Tech and why
I should be using them in my underdog parlay this week.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
Well, Kelly, the beauty of rivalry week is, you know,
sometimes you just throw the stats out because it's a
different animal. Excuse the pun there being barking dog segment.
But you know, some teams have everything to play for
and some have nothing to play for other than spoiling
their arch rival plans or if they're not going to
(14:36):
a bowl game. You hear the phrase a lot of
times this is their bowl game, this is their super Bowl.
Well that's the case we have here. Virginia has everything
to play for. They're trying to get to the ACC
Championship game. Well, Virginia Tech will be home for the holidays,
but Virginia Tech would like nothing better than to prevent
their arch rival from going to the ACC Championship game. This,
(15:00):
this is Virginia Tech's bowl game. And now that James
Franklin has been announced as the head coach, now obviously
he's not coaching here, but he's gonna be there. He'll
be up in the press box watching this game. Any
of the players that want to stick around and stay
with this Virginia Tech program, They're gonna be playing hard
on Saturday because the new boss is watching and this
(15:23):
is just too many points to lay with Virginia. Virginia's
in a spot here where they need to win. And
how often do you see teams sometimes when all they
gotta do is win in their in they play not
to lose instead of playing to win. And that's my
fear here. I think Virginia Tech takes this right down
to the wire. They've got nothing to lose in this game,
(15:45):
so they can take some chances. Fourth and short, let's
go for it. I'll take the Hokies and maybe they
can pokey the old Virginia Cavaliers out of the ACC Championship.
Take Virginia Tech plus the points and sitting at nine
and a half, Kelly, I would wait till Saturday, till
the public gets involved, because if we lose the half
(16:07):
a point to nine, what are we losing? But if
we gain that half a point to ten, we're gaining
a lot.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
All right.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
That is some basic key number knowledge for you there
in college football, the art speaking of key numbers. This
team is sitting there on ten, and I have no
idea why you're taking this team. I am completely flabberg acid.
I understand we're betting numbers, not teams. This team does
not have a new head coach yet waiting in the wings.
(16:34):
There's been some controversy, there's been lots of chatter, yet
no pen to paper. Tell me why you think LSU
can win this game?
Speaker 2 (16:42):
Outright?
Speaker 4 (16:43):
And I'll say, between my dog and my best bet,
like they're almost always the same for me, like unless
I say, like I didn't bet this one, I bet
that one. Just keep that in mind because I know,
like in the NFL, like my dogs have done great,
the best bets haven't done that good. I think I'm
like five and seven, but nine and two with the dogs.
(17:05):
But overall, like it's profitable to me, like they're both
I weigh am kind of the same.
Speaker 5 (17:10):
I know that you put the word best bet in
front of it.
Speaker 4 (17:12):
But unless it like I say, this is like a
four percent and that's a three percent that would make
the difference in college football, that it will be the
case because I actually changed it. I had another dog,
but I went here because the dog is now the
best bet. We'll get to that next. Here's why I
like lsu kel in this spot. There's a lot of
a recency bias around this.
Speaker 5 (17:32):
Number One.
Speaker 4 (17:33):
You have Oklahoma coming off big, big road wins. All right,
they beat Tennessee as dogs. They then they go to
Alabama on extra week rest, they beat Alabama as touchdown dogs. Outright,
now they come home where if you look, they've played well,
they've won four or five games, but they only covered
(17:54):
one of those, so that the books have done a
really good job of pricing it. So it's been tough
to make money off of Oklahoma even though they've won
eight to ten games. If you bet them throughout the year.
I think with the big I don't even think you're profitable.
And why I like the LSU side is because I
think they're a little bit undervalued.
Speaker 5 (18:15):
Here's what I mean.
Speaker 4 (18:16):
They're a six and four team and they had a
rough golf it in their last game against an Arkansas team.
But as we touched on with Marco who had Arkansas,
Arkansas was a legit two win football team and LSU,
believe it or not, power rating wise, is still in
my top twenty five. Oklahoma is ranked higher than they
(18:39):
should be. Right now in the playoff rankings, they're number eight. Okay,
I have them at number sixteen, so I have them
a lot further back. And like I said, I have
LSU in my top twenty five.
Speaker 5 (18:53):
Here's why.
Speaker 4 (18:54):
LSU had a top fifteen toughest strength of schedule, and
with that tough strength of schede, they.
Speaker 5 (19:00):
Have a top fifteen defense.
Speaker 4 (19:02):
If you have a top fifteen team defense and you're
giving me double digits, I think they could stay in
the game, especially since Oklahoma's strength is their defense, like
it's not the.
Speaker 5 (19:13):
Offensive side of the ball.
Speaker 4 (19:15):
They're barely a top thirty five offense in efficiency. Now,
granted they also had a really tough strength of schedule
top ten, but they are facing a legit defense once.
Speaker 5 (19:27):
Again this week.
Speaker 4 (19:28):
So I don't think Oklahoma's going to have that easy
of a time putting up points like you saw against Alabama.
They put up twenty three against Tennessee. They put up
thirty three against Mississippi twenty six. If they put in
the twenties, I think LSU could cover. Can they win
outright again?
Speaker 5 (19:45):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (19:46):
I felt that way about UCLA also, I don't know,
And they got it done. If I'm betting at dog,
it's because I do think they could keep it close enough.
So will I sprinkle Oklahoma Sure, probably for five percent
of my maybe ten at the most because we're running
hot in college football.
Speaker 5 (20:03):
But yeah, I'm gonna go with LSU.
Speaker 4 (20:06):
Like I said, I think power rating wise, we have
an advantage, and I think even with Oklahoma back at home,
I don't see them happen that dominance where they've covered
games there. So I'll take the points with LSU and
hope they could keep it within ten.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
All right.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
And another team that everybody's gonna tell you is quit
on their season, But I told you last week they
have not.
Speaker 2 (20:31):
Oklahoma State plus four to ten was so close.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
They were up fourteen nothing in the balance house and
gave up seventeen unanswered and we cash the over two
touchdowns so easily.
Speaker 2 (20:42):
Now here they are at home.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
Once again getting over two touchdowns. The Cyclones. Sure they
beat up on KU last week. Sure they beat k
Styton Dublin, But this Cyclones team two four and one
against the spread and their last seven games, is a favorite.
This is the most points they've been asked to lay
since Week three against Arkansas State. Oklahoma State has not
(21:07):
quit on their season. I told you guys that last week,
and I'm telling you guys this this week. They still
want to get an FBS win. They still want to
play hard, and frankly, this is the best the team's
looked all season long. By the way, the home team
has won each of the last four meetings in this series,
four of the last five of State under the total,
(21:27):
which bodes well for that double digit dog that is
the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Were running it back for a
second straight week. All right, Marco, what else are we
gonna run back?
Speaker 2 (21:38):
The Deli?
Speaker 1 (21:39):
I certainly hope so, because the Delhi has been absolutely
crushing thirty seven and twenty two on the season.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Who is your trap game for this week?
Speaker 3 (21:52):
Yeah, Kelly, And being the last week of the regular season,
obviously you don't got a lot of sandwich spots because
teams aren't playing next week. But we do have some
trap situations, and I think we got a big win
here with Jacksonville State in Western Kentucky. Now, both teams
sit at six and one in a three way tie
(22:12):
a top conference USA, so obviously nobody's going to be
looking past either team. But here's where the problem comes in. Uh,
you had Western Kentucky last week played LSU. Now they
went to LSU and regardless of LSU having a bad
(22:34):
year this year, that is a huge game for Western Kentucky.
What did they do as a twenty four and a
half point underdog. They only lost by three thirteen to ten,
gut wrenching loss for them. You also got to wonder
what in the world the Western Kentucky athletic director was
doing scheduling a game like that this late in the season.
(22:55):
Oh wait, I know why. I have one hundred one
point eight million reasons why. That's what they were paid
to go almost beat LSU last week. But here's the problem. Now,
they got to come off that gut wrenching loss. They
made a big step up in class obviously playing an
SEC school, more physical team, but even though they almost
(23:18):
beat them, how much did it take out of the tank.
Now they're got to come back and play a Jacksonville
State team. You know what Jacksonville State does. They run
the football down your throat. They're going to run the
football at them forty five plus times when you just
played a more physical team the week before, do you
want to play a team that's gonna come at you
(23:39):
forty five plus times the next week and is averaging
over two hundred and sixty yards per game on the ground.
Jacksonville State's averaging thirty eight points per game at home
this season. It's senior day, You've got conference title on
the line. Yeah, I'm gonna take the home team here.
Give me Jacksonville State thirty four seven. That's my trap
(24:03):
game going against the Western Kentucky team.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
Okay, it is time for best bets.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
And I don't know if I'm really supposed to tell
the family secrets and what goes on prior to hitting
that record button. But VR would not stop talking about
how much he loved this play.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
So take that for what it's worth.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
Yeah, does that mean you're gonna give it to your
clients or you just love it as a show, Like,
please elaborate because you said love Like, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
Here's what I did, cal, I gave it to my
last week, I lost my five percent in college football. Okay,
I had a losing week in college football, slightly losing week.
So I've won ten of the thirteen weeks or eleven
or fourteen, whatever it is. I'm up over one hundred units. Now,
I don't want My job is to help manage risk
for my subscribers as best as possible, so I don't
(24:49):
want them going crazy. But this week I have a
play that that warrants that kind of bet, and I
placed it, I fired it. I sent out a four
per to my subscribers, and then I sent out a
one percent on the money line today, So it equals
like five percent, but not a five percent play in theory. Okay,
(25:12):
but I will have five percent worth of risk put
it that way, not full five percent of my bankro
I'm not suicidal, but yeah, a rating wise, And here's
the bottom line it'll be. I say, like you should
never put too much stock in any one result, any
one game, anyone fight. We overreact, So I don't want
(25:37):
this game to be the determining factor, but I think
it'll play out that way.
Speaker 5 (25:42):
And here's what I mean.
Speaker 4 (25:43):
I've been talking about how Texas A and M is
an over ranked, over value team. They are not the
number three best college football team in the country. In fact,
that's Notre Dame. It's not them, it's Notre Dame. And
Notre Dame's right behind Indiana. Who's right behind Ohio State.
That's the bottom line. Power rating wise, A and M
(26:07):
top fifteen at best at best at best. Here's the problem.
Texas is a top ten and the wrong team's favored
in this game. You have Texas with the seventh toughest
strength of schedule compared to the number fifteenth for Texas.
A and M say they had a two x tougher
strength of schedule, and yet they have the eleventh most
(26:30):
deficient defense versus the number twenty seventh most deficient defense.
And even though the A and M offense is a
couple slots.
Speaker 5 (26:40):
Just a few slots above.
Speaker 4 (26:42):
Them in offense to efficiency, it's because they've had a
two x easier schedule than Texas.
Speaker 5 (26:50):
That's it.
Speaker 4 (26:51):
Bottom line, wrong team is favored, and for me, that
warrants that kind of bet regardless of outcome. These are
the kind of bets where I feel comfortable kick my
feet off. I know I got the best of it,
and the fact that I got my subscribers down at
plus three with a little juice and now there's two's
(27:12):
out there tells me the market's starting to agree with me.
That's why I send it out at plus one ten
today with the instructions at plus one oh one are better.
It's a bet because if you're giving me plus one
oh one on a coin flip, I'm gonna take it.
And this is no worse than a coin flip. There's
absolutely no reason that Texas should be an underdog. You
(27:33):
could argue they shouldn't. Maybe they shouldn't be a favorite,
but they shouldn't be an underdog, and that tells me
at worst, they're a coin flip. So if you're gonna
give me plus three plus two and a half, plus
two or plus one and a half on a coin flip,
I'm taking it. You give me plus one oh one,
one oh five, one ten, one twenty, I'm taking it.
And the fact that X text A and M is
(27:53):
favored doesn't surprise me because it's based on the rankings
which have allowed us to win over one hundred units
so far this year in college football.
Speaker 5 (28:02):
So Saturday talk.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
Before the game in the comments, let me know why
I'm wrong, because when Texas beats Texas A and M,
I don't want to hear I have anything personal about
Texas A and M.
Speaker 5 (28:13):
I could care less. It just happens.
Speaker 2 (28:15):
I'm not the third best team.
Speaker 1 (28:16):
In the country to say to say, all right, Marco D'Angelo,
before you give us your best bat, let us know
what's going on over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
Oh, we've got a plethora of offers this week over
at wager talk, so head over to check them all out.
Two of the more popular ones at well three, we
still have Weekend Warrior forty nine dollars. You can pick
up your favorite cap or Saturday and Sunday get all
their football. Why spend forty nine dollars though for two days?
(28:46):
When this week you can get seven days with our
Thanksgiving special, just six seven, sixty seven dollars. We'll get
you seven days this week. That is the best deal going.
If you want to lock in your favorite capper for
the entire bowl season, you can pick up the final
week of the regular season, pick up the championship conference
(29:10):
games next week, and all of the balls for one
hundred and seventy nine dollars. Best deal, Take that seven
day for sixty seven dollars, because you're not only gonna
get football for seven days, You're gonna get basketball, college
and pro. You're gonna get hockey, everything that's going on.
If you have a capper that does some of the
(29:30):
other sports, tennis, so forth, soccer, whatever, you get anything
that happens from that capper in the next seven days,
including those five percent plays that sell for thirty five
dollars by themselves. And speaking of five percent plays, yeah,
I've got one going this week and we have been
on a roll. We hit our five percent last week
(29:52):
with TCU outright winner as an underdog. Now thirty eight
and sixteen since February of twenty twenty four, sixty seven
dollars get you seven days. My best bet This week, Kelly,
We're going to a former Pac twelve matchup. It's now
in the Big ten and it's Washington and Oregon. Last
(30:13):
week we had a play on Oregon against USC and
you know that was pretty simple. Why well, because Oregon
was at home and Oregon was playing defense in USC
that I felt wouldn't be able to stop Oregon. Now
the difference this week, well, Oregon's on the road and
they're playing a team that does play defense in Washington.
(30:37):
Washington has held seven of their eleven opponents to twenty
one or fewer points this year. Only one team or
excuse me, no one has scored over twenty five points.
On them this year. Washington's not going to be intimidated
by Oregon, is I alluded to? These two former Pac
twelve teams know each other well. They've played four times
(30:59):
since and three of the four games have been decided
by three points. Washington's already Bowl eligible, so there's no
pressure on them. Oregon. Yeah, they're trying to secure their
spot in the big playoff championship playoff formatt and looking
(31:23):
at this one, I think the pressure's all on them.
I think Washington's the team that can take the chances
at home, and I don't think this Oregon team is
the same team on the road. Yeah. They went into
Penn State and beat Penn State earlier this year. The
game went to overtime. What did Penn State do since then? Well,
we know what happened to them. They had that horrible
(31:43):
losing streak and fired James Franklin. They went on the
road to Iowa. What happened there? They escaped with a
two point victory. The only teams that they handled on
the road were Northwestern and Rutgers, and those are not
good teams. I'm gonna go ahead. It's senior Day. Home
crowd goes home happy, I'm calling at Washington twenty seven
(32:05):
to twenty four.
Speaker 2 (32:08):
Yeah, that is gonna probably be one of the legs
of my three team money line park.
Speaker 1 (32:12):
Like al right here, already circle that I just wrote
Marco in parentheses.
Speaker 2 (32:17):
Marco has been doing very well in college football.
Speaker 1 (32:19):
And I love when we agree a game that you
guys probably aren't gona agree with me on here, and
I don't really care. And it was tough for me
to find a best bet because well, I was celebrating
my birthday yesterday and we had a Thanksgiving show. By
the way, if you haven't caught the Thanksgiving Show, it
is up on the wager Talk YouTube channel of the
NFL show for Sunday and Monday will be up as well.
(32:40):
Kansas State minus seventeen and a half. Here's the reality.
Kansas State should have probably won that game in Salt
Lake City last week, and if that was the case,
I would not have been on them here. And they
had a heartbreaking loss, but they still need one game.
Speaker 2 (32:57):
To become bull eligible.
Speaker 1 (32:58):
Do these kids really care about going to a Liberty
Bowl or another game in Texas?
Speaker 2 (33:02):
I sure as hell don't.
Speaker 1 (33:04):
But the reality is is after that emotional press conference,
with Chris Cleman. Mini players spoke out and said, we
still want to play for this team, We still care.
I got another text from a buddy who's we'll call
him a beat writer if you will, for Kansas State,
and he said they are effing pissed. And I don't
know if I've ever heard him use language like that
(33:26):
when texting me prior. So those are the types of
we'll call it insight that I want to know when
I'm laying this many points with the team, you've.
Speaker 2 (33:35):
Got Colorado on the flip side.
Speaker 1 (33:37):
Coach Prime kind of joked in his press or, oh yeah,
we want to play?
Speaker 2 (33:40):
Spoiler do they? They don't look like they want to
play at all.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
In fact, his son is now a starting quarterback for
the Cleveland Browns, and I feel like he's got both
feet out the door. Look for k State to win
big on Saturday. I'll do a marcoism here. I'm gonna
call it forty four to ten spring back the guys,
and as I already alluded to, oh Marko.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
Go ahead, Kelly. I want to Kansas State give you
a present for your birthday. Hopefully they give you that,
but I want to tell listeners, yeah, it's a day late,
but get into the comment section like you did for me.
Tell Kelly all caps, happy Kelly, Give Kelly some love,
Happy birthday, Kelly.
Speaker 2 (34:22):
Thank you guys.
Speaker 4 (34:22):
I'm still a little bit confused for that sixty seven
dollars deal.
Speaker 5 (34:28):
If I was okay nowhere ran that by me?
Speaker 6 (34:32):
I guess that's you're not jumping on board for sixty
seven bucks, will be that's the IQ test this week.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
I can't with you, guys.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
Marco's grandchild finally explain to him what six seven means
and now he wants to use it and all of
our sales promo to boost the algorithm.
Speaker 2 (34:49):
Well, like you said, guys, jump in the comments.
Speaker 1 (34:51):
Agree with us, disagree with us. Want to tell me
that you hate me, you want to tell me that
you love me? I don't care, but we appreciate you
guys taking the time to watch. If you guys are
looking for that NFL show, you guys know where you
can catch it right here on the Wager Talking YouTube
channel Mega Show. And also if you missed it, that
Thanksgiving special is up as well.
The Deli has still been red hot in his back
open for business here in week fourteen of college football.
Those barking dogs are going to keep us cashing through
the end of the regular season and hopefully on to
those bowl games. The Seam Report from VR get ready
to rapid fire write down all those sharp plays and
(00:20):
of course, best bets on an incredible college football weekend
up next on bet on it. There are tons of
(00:43):
top twenty five games this weekend, so it was hard
for me to choose, but I just went with the
Saturday games because I need this show to have a
little bit of longevity with the Thanksgiving holiday, So we
are going to touch on a couple of those Friday
games here, at least from a conversational personective, I'm Kelly Stewart,
joined by YACHTI the Greek Marco DiAngelo, and.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
We're gonna get right into this.
Speaker 1 (01:07):
I'm up first, and this is a game that's well, frankly,
I didn't think would be that interesting, but it sure is.
Twelve pm Eastern on Fox number fifteen, Michigan at number
one Ohio State Ohio State nine and a half ten
Here on the Odds Lotic screen forty five and a
half is the total.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
This is why it's interesting.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Michigan has won and covered each of the last four meetings,
including last year as nineteen and a half point road underdogs,
they won thirteen to ten in Columbus, Ohio State. Sure,
they control their own destiny. If they win here, they're
going to the Big Ten championship game, but a loss
would keep them at home next weekend. Here's my question, though,
(01:47):
do they really care about a conference championship. Sure they
care about beating Michigan because there are huge rivals, but
this team's already looking ahead to the college football playoff.
They also have a couple guys that are banged up.
Jeremiah and Carnell Tate both both missed last weekend against Rutgers.
Ryan Day has not alluded to whether they will be
(02:08):
available for this game, so definitely check their status prior
to making any wagers. Michigan back to that Big Ten
Conference game still as an outside shot. To make it,
they need to win here and hope that Washington can
beat Oregon. We'll get to Washington here in just a
little bit. But for my friends at the gold Sheet,
(02:28):
if you're interested in the total since twenty nineteen, there
have been nine instances with two to nine plus win
teams playing the final week of the regular season, and
that includes nine Michigan Ohio State games ours four of
the nine excuse me, All nine of those games have
gone over the total by an average margin of nine
point two points per game. That system also applies to
(02:51):
Georgia Tech. Georgia, I think this is a lot of
points here for a game in which I bet against
Michigan last week in hopes they would be looking ahead here.
Not a huge opinion, but I do lean Michigan in
this one. Maybe Marco's got a bigger opinion on this
next game another noon Eastern on ABC number thirteen, Miami
(03:14):
at number twenty four, Pittsburgh. Almost a touchdown here, Marco.
Fifty nine and a half is the total.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Yeah, Kelly and pitt backed up what their coach said
two weeks ago. Remember when he said, prior to the
Notre Dame game, I don't care if we lose one
hundred and three to ten. The only thing that matters
is the next two ACC games. Well, part one, they
took care of business. They beat Georgia Tech forty two
to twenty eight, but Georgia Tech's not as good as
(03:43):
people thought. VR told you that last week with his
power ratings. You saw it on the field with Pitt
dismantling them. Pitt was able to have their way because
Georgia Tech defense isn't that good. Miami is a good defense.
But you know what's even better that Miami offense and
that Miami defense. They've held every opponent but one to
(04:06):
twenty four points or fewer, and they've held seven of
their opponents to seventeen or less. When it comes to
stopping the Miami offense, Pitt's gonna have problems because Miami
has scored thirty four or more six times this year.
The Miami passing attack by far the best passing attack
that Pitt has seen this year. And let's not forget
(04:30):
you got to point it out, but Miami might need
style points, so they're not gonna take their foot off
the gas in this one. I'm gonna go ahead and
take Miami. I'm gonna lay the six and a half
against my Pitt Panthers. Yeah, I bet against my teams
as much as I go with them. That's why I
love Delly, And now I'm feeling you're paying that I
(04:52):
went against Chicago in our Thanksgiving video. Wow, I get
some pushback from the comments section. I got a bet
with your head and not your heart. And whenever we
make a play against the team, it's not because we
don't like that team. We just like the other play
better that week.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
Yeah, that's funny.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
I always get that, Oh, you hate so and so team,
you hate this team, And I'm like, now, I just
enjoy betting against them because they're not very good against
the spread.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Are you are up next?
Speaker 1 (05:22):
We got three thirty pm Eastern on ESPN, number twelve,
Vander Built catching just a round a field goal at
number eighteen tennessee sixty four and a half. Here is
the total before we get into the breakdown here. Do
you think Diego Pavia has a shot to win the Heisman?
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Have you seen any Heisman action?
Speaker 1 (05:42):
I know that he's been in the conversation in the
mix as well as saying as well as Mendoza and
of course Jeremiah Love.
Speaker 4 (05:51):
No, I haven't heard an I haven't seen any sharp
action on him at all, and I haven't seen any
futures on Heisman. And you think this year that would
be the case, especially since they got it wrong at
the beginning, and the odds have been shifting so much
that you would get at least some of the betting
send to begause. I'm sure sharps have gotten ino, you know,
(06:13):
sharp betters in college football have gotten down, But none
of the groups that I provide accounts for have gotten
involved with the Heisman race at all.
Speaker 5 (06:22):
And I don't know.
Speaker 4 (06:23):
If he's a front runner. They say he is at
least right now. But I think Vandy's phony and that
that's the bottom line. That's that's the problem, and I
think they're gonna get exposed eventually, if not this week,
and that shot of the Heisman I think goes with it.
Speaker 5 (06:43):
Here here's the bottom line. I've been talking.
Speaker 4 (06:45):
About Vandy being over valued, over ranked this entire season,
and I know some of you guys don't like hearing
me use the word power rating over and over, but
that's all it comes down to. At the end of
the day, it's my numbers versus their numbers, and which
one is more efficient at predicting the true implied win
(07:08):
probability between Team AY and Team B. That's the bottom line.
We could talk ex'es and nose, we could talk players names.
We could talk all this, all this shit, it doesn't matter.
Speaker 5 (07:17):
At the end of the day.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
What's the point spread, What should it be? Is there
a difference and do you fire?
Speaker 5 (07:24):
That's it.
Speaker 4 (07:25):
Everything else is just noise. And when you come in
with a thirty and nine record on bed on it
my analysis should be because I said so, and that's it.
Speaker 5 (07:33):
I wanted to be a dick, not even give one.
Speaker 4 (07:37):
But with that said, let's give you a little analysis.
Here's the bottom line. Tennessee the better team at least
ten spots power rating wise better. I have Tennessee right
now in my top fifteen. I don't have Vanderbilt in
my top twenty, all right, And Vanderbilts had a twenty
fifth toughest schedule, and with that they've had teeth most
(08:00):
deficient offense, forty fifth most efficient defense. Tennessee's had the
eighteenth toughest schedule, so tougher than Vanderbilt. And they've had
the number one defense, so the number one offense. Forgive me,
number one most efficient offense. And now they're going up
against a forty five length defense. They're gonna have a
(08:21):
good time on Saturday against Vanderbilt's defense.
Speaker 5 (08:23):
That's for sure.
Speaker 4 (08:24):
It's gonna force that Vanderbilt offense to try to get
it done. They're gonna have a problem. Like I said,
they had a tough strength of schedule. Tennessee defense is
the weak side of the ball. But I don't think
Vandy's gonna be able to do too much damage there.
Tennessee minus two and a half juice is a gift.
Minus three is a gift. They win this one by
(08:45):
double digits. Don't tease Vanderbilt.
Speaker 5 (08:48):
It's not enough.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
You're seeing the total getting steamed over because Tennessee is
gonna have an easy time putting points on the board.
I haven't gotten the window with it. That's the disclaimer again.
I can give you what I had for the show
between now and kick off. Hopefully I get confirmation, but
right now I do like Tennessee just haven't fired.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
All right, VR, I'm gonna let you fire all of
your stuff here in a minute on the Steam Report.
But first I want to let you guys know this
week you can get a free copy of the gold
Sheet right now, go right over to this website. Dan
Alexander's gonna put it on the screen for me, and
it's a picks and parlays website actually, and it's available
(09:36):
also on the gold sheet page, whichever is easiest for you.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
Right here is your website to get a free copy
of this.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
Week's gold sheet.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
All right, VR, Like I do on Last Call every
single Saturday, I just let you go and do your.
Speaker 6 (09:51):
Thing and then I'll let the comments sort it out afterwards.
All right, let's run through five for Friday, five for Saturday.
I'll tell you only two games have gotten resistance, little
high profile, so we're gonna touch on them.
Speaker 4 (10:05):
Start off with Friday's action. And this is a big
weekend again, You're gonna see a lot of movement day
of the game. People are all from work, TV, games, drinking, betting,
and betting syndicates. Wise, guys, sharps all know this money
moves lines just as much as respect So when a
(10:26):
lot of money gets bet and moves some of these
lines out of whack, that's where you see a lot
of that late steam come in. That's why I haven't
released all that much. The market changes based on participants,
and this week's participants are a little bit different than
last week's. It's more like bull season kind of, so
keep that in mind. Three sixteen under forty seven and
(10:49):
a half, all the way down the under forty five
Ohio versus Buffalo, then Mississippi, Mississippi State, they took the
points plus eight and plus.
Speaker 5 (10:57):
Seven and a half.
Speaker 4 (10:58):
Haven't touched it at that key number seven three nineteen
Iowa minus to five and a half and minus five
and five and a half against Nebraska. Then three twenty
four Kansas plus thirteen and a half, twelve and a half,
all the way down to like eleven and a half.
I think against Utah they laid the Georgia minus thirteen
(11:18):
and a half against Georgia Tech, we talked about how
Georgia Tech was phony.
Speaker 5 (11:23):
Then Saturday, three thirty nine.
Speaker 4 (11:25):
Florida State plus two plus one and a half plus
one against Florida three forty one Texas Tech minus twenty
one twenty two to twenty three. But at twenty four
the West Virginia money started coming in. So that's one
of those where there is resistance. UH three fifty three
Kentucky plus four plus three and a half.
Speaker 5 (11:45):
Haven't touched the key number.
Speaker 4 (11:46):
Of three versus Louisville three fifty eight South Carolina minus
two and two and a half. But Clemson at that
key number of plus three that sticks out a lot
three sixty one, Wake Farns plus three took the two
and a half's out and took the one and a
half's out as well versus Duke. That's your steam report
(12:07):
for college football. That's the luck this weekend. A lot
of money to be made out there throughout the entire weekend,
for sure.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
All right, guys, we're gonna see you on Saturday with
VR going over some last minute steam. Maybe we can
codify some of those as potential winners. Speaking of winners,
this has been our best segment, not only in college
football but in the NFL. And mainly that's my fault
because the best bets in the NFL segment have sucks
so bad. But my barking dogs have been really good.
(12:37):
And I'm going back with the same dog that I
went with last week, Marco. The only reason why is
because Marco took one of my dogs and VR took
the other one, and I can't really decide here on
my three G money line parlay. Maybe Marco can get
me to the window with the Hokies.
Speaker 3 (12:54):
All right, Well, you know what, if you've been doing
so good with your barking dogs and me and VRS.
He'd taken ones you wanted. Shouldn't you be thanking us
because where you're landing's winning. Ah tell you women, you
can't ever make them happy?
Speaker 5 (13:08):
All right, a problem, here's let.
Speaker 2 (13:12):
Me let me just let me just say this, here's
the problem.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
If you will, I'm the host of the show, okay,
and I want to showcase you guys as not only experts,
but your talents and give you guys the best games
to give to our audience. If I came on here
and gave out the same barking dog as you, these
people would riot Marco.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
You're gonna lose their minds.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
Now, m's more information. They want your opinion, it's more information.
There's so much randomness. The show is kel I've had
a winning year on shows and I've gotten buried in
real life, and I've had a where I've gotten crushed
on shows and had the best season. Like, there's a
lot of randomness involved.
Speaker 5 (13:50):
You know that it is.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
And there's a lot of dogs barking every single weekend.
That's why we love college football. Last week and I
gave out two stingers of a dog, though I at
least I didn't go ahead to.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
Head with Marco. Okay, you guys, we're learning. This is
called growth.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
Marco, tell me why you like Virginia Tech and why
I should be using them in my underdog parlay this week.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
Well, Kelly, the beauty of rivalry week is, you know,
sometimes you just throw the stats out because it's a
different animal. Excuse the pun there being barking dog segment.
But you know, some teams have everything to play for
and some have nothing to play for other than spoiling
their arch rival plans or if they're not going to
(14:36):
a bowl game. You hear the phrase a lot of
times this is their bowl game, this is their super Bowl.
Well that's the case we have here. Virginia has everything
to play for. They're trying to get to the ACC
Championship game. Well, Virginia Tech will be home for the holidays,
but Virginia Tech would like nothing better than to prevent
their arch rival from going to the ACC Championship game. This,
(15:00):
this is Virginia Tech's bowl game. And now that James
Franklin has been announced as the head coach, now obviously
he's not coaching here, but he's gonna be there. He'll
be up in the press box watching this game. Any
of the players that want to stick around and stay
with this Virginia Tech program, They're gonna be playing hard
on Saturday because the new boss is watching and this
(15:23):
is just too many points to lay with Virginia. Virginia's
in a spot here where they need to win. And
how often do you see teams sometimes when all they
gotta do is win in their in they play not
to lose instead of playing to win. And that's my
fear here. I think Virginia Tech takes this right down
to the wire. They've got nothing to lose in this game,
(15:45):
so they can take some chances. Fourth and short, let's
go for it. I'll take the Hokies and maybe they
can pokey the old Virginia Cavaliers out of the ACC Championship.
Take Virginia Tech plus the points and sitting at nine
and a half, Kelly, I would wait till Saturday, till
the public gets involved, because if we lose the half
(16:07):
a point to nine, what are we losing? But if
we gain that half a point to ten, we're gaining
a lot.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
All right.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
That is some basic key number knowledge for you there
in college football, the art speaking of key numbers. This
team is sitting there on ten, and I have no
idea why you're taking this team. I am completely flabberg acid.
I understand we're betting numbers, not teams. This team does
not have a new head coach yet waiting in the wings.
(16:34):
There's been some controversy, there's been lots of chatter, yet
no pen to paper. Tell me why you think LSU
can win this game?
Speaker 2 (16:42):
Outright?
Speaker 4 (16:43):
And I'll say, between my dog and my best bet,
like they're almost always the same for me, like unless
I say, like I didn't bet this one, I bet
that one. Just keep that in mind because I know,
like in the NFL, like my dogs have done great,
the best bets haven't done that good. I think I'm
like five and seven, but nine and two with the dogs.
(17:05):
But overall, like it's profitable to me, like they're both
I weigh am kind of the same.
Speaker 5 (17:10):
I know that you put the word best bet in
front of it.
Speaker 4 (17:12):
But unless it like I say, this is like a
four percent and that's a three percent that would make
the difference in college football, that it will be the
case because I actually changed it. I had another dog,
but I went here because the dog is now the
best bet. We'll get to that next. Here's why I
like lsu kel in this spot. There's a lot of
a recency bias around this.
Speaker 5 (17:32):
Number One.
Speaker 4 (17:33):
You have Oklahoma coming off big, big road wins. All right,
they beat Tennessee as dogs. They then they go to
Alabama on extra week rest, they beat Alabama as touchdown dogs. Outright,
now they come home where if you look, they've played well,
they've won four or five games, but they only covered
(17:54):
one of those, so that the books have done a
really good job of pricing it. So it's been tough
to make money off of Oklahoma even though they've won
eight to ten games. If you bet them throughout the year.
I think with the big I don't even think you're profitable.
And why I like the LSU side is because I
think they're a little bit undervalued.
Speaker 5 (18:15):
Here's what I mean.
Speaker 4 (18:16):
They're a six and four team and they had a
rough golf it in their last game against an Arkansas team.
But as we touched on with Marco who had Arkansas,
Arkansas was a legit two win football team and LSU,
believe it or not, power rating wise, is still in
my top twenty five. Oklahoma is ranked higher than they
(18:39):
should be. Right now in the playoff rankings, they're number eight. Okay,
I have them at number sixteen, so I have them
a lot further back. And like I said, I have
LSU in my top twenty five.
Speaker 5 (18:53):
Here's why.
Speaker 4 (18:54):
LSU had a top fifteen toughest strength of schedule, and
with that tough strength of schede, they.
Speaker 5 (19:00):
Have a top fifteen defense.
Speaker 4 (19:02):
If you have a top fifteen team defense and you're
giving me double digits, I think they could stay in
the game, especially since Oklahoma's strength is their defense, like
it's not the.
Speaker 5 (19:13):
Offensive side of the ball.
Speaker 4 (19:15):
They're barely a top thirty five offense in efficiency. Now,
granted they also had a really tough strength of schedule
top ten, but they are facing a legit defense once.
Speaker 5 (19:27):
Again this week.
Speaker 4 (19:28):
So I don't think Oklahoma's going to have that easy
of a time putting up points like you saw against Alabama.
They put up twenty three against Tennessee. They put up
thirty three against Mississippi twenty six. If they put in
the twenties, I think LSU could cover. Can they win
outright again?
Speaker 5 (19:45):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (19:46):
I felt that way about UCLA also, I don't know,
And they got it done. If I'm betting at dog,
it's because I do think they could keep it close enough.
So will I sprinkle Oklahoma Sure, probably for five percent
of my maybe ten at the most because we're running
hot in college football.
Speaker 5 (20:03):
But yeah, I'm gonna go with LSU.
Speaker 4 (20:06):
Like I said, I think power rating wise, we have
an advantage, and I think even with Oklahoma back at home,
I don't see them happen that dominance where they've covered
games there. So I'll take the points with LSU and
hope they could keep it within ten.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
All right.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
And another team that everybody's gonna tell you is quit
on their season, But I told you last week they
have not.
Speaker 2 (20:31):
Oklahoma State plus four to ten was so close.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
They were up fourteen nothing in the balance house and
gave up seventeen unanswered and we cash the over two
touchdowns so easily.
Speaker 2 (20:42):
Now here they are at home.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
Once again getting over two touchdowns. The Cyclones. Sure they
beat up on KU last week. Sure they beat k
Styton Dublin, But this Cyclones team two four and one
against the spread and their last seven games, is a favorite.
This is the most points they've been asked to lay
since Week three against Arkansas State. Oklahoma State has not
(21:07):
quit on their season. I told you guys that last week,
and I'm telling you guys this this week. They still
want to get an FBS win. They still want to
play hard, and frankly, this is the best the team's
looked all season long. By the way, the home team
has won each of the last four meetings in this series,
four of the last five of State under the total,
(21:27):
which bodes well for that double digit dog that is
the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Were running it back for a
second straight week. All right, Marco, what else are we
gonna run back?
Speaker 2 (21:38):
The Deli?
Speaker 1 (21:39):
I certainly hope so, because the Delhi has been absolutely
crushing thirty seven and twenty two on the season.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Who is your trap game for this week?
Speaker 3 (21:52):
Yeah, Kelly, And being the last week of the regular season,
obviously you don't got a lot of sandwich spots because
teams aren't playing next week. But we do have some
trap situations, and I think we got a big win
here with Jacksonville State in Western Kentucky. Now, both teams
sit at six and one in a three way tie
(22:12):
a top conference USA, so obviously nobody's going to be
looking past either team. But here's where the problem comes in. Uh,
you had Western Kentucky last week played LSU. Now they
went to LSU and regardless of LSU having a bad
(22:34):
year this year, that is a huge game for Western Kentucky.
What did they do as a twenty four and a
half point underdog. They only lost by three thirteen to ten,
gut wrenching loss for them. You also got to wonder
what in the world the Western Kentucky athletic director was
doing scheduling a game like that this late in the season.
(22:55):
Oh wait, I know why. I have one hundred one
point eight million reasons why. That's what they were paid
to go almost beat LSU last week. But here's the problem. Now,
they got to come off that gut wrenching loss. They
made a big step up in class obviously playing an
SEC school, more physical team, but even though they almost
(23:18):
beat them, how much did it take out of the tank.
Now they're got to come back and play a Jacksonville
State team. You know what Jacksonville State does. They run
the football down your throat. They're going to run the
football at them forty five plus times when you just
played a more physical team the week before, do you
want to play a team that's gonna come at you
(23:39):
forty five plus times the next week and is averaging
over two hundred and sixty yards per game on the ground.
Jacksonville State's averaging thirty eight points per game at home
this season. It's senior day, You've got conference title on
the line. Yeah, I'm gonna take the home team here.
Give me Jacksonville State thirty four seven. That's my trap
(24:03):
game going against the Western Kentucky team.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
Okay, it is time for best bets.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
And I don't know if I'm really supposed to tell
the family secrets and what goes on prior to hitting
that record button. But VR would not stop talking about
how much he loved this play.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
So take that for what it's worth.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
Yeah, does that mean you're gonna give it to your
clients or you just love it as a show, Like,
please elaborate because you said love Like, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
Here's what I did, cal, I gave it to my
last week, I lost my five percent in college football. Okay,
I had a losing week in college football, slightly losing week.
So I've won ten of the thirteen weeks or eleven
or fourteen, whatever it is. I'm up over one hundred units. Now,
I don't want My job is to help manage risk
for my subscribers as best as possible, so I don't
(24:49):
want them going crazy. But this week I have a
play that that warrants that kind of bet, and I
placed it, I fired it. I sent out a four
per to my subscribers, and then I sent out a
one percent on the money line today, So it equals
like five percent, but not a five percent play in theory. Okay,
(25:12):
but I will have five percent worth of risk put
it that way, not full five percent of my bankro
I'm not suicidal, but yeah, a rating wise, And here's
the bottom line it'll be. I say, like you should
never put too much stock in any one result, any
one game, anyone fight. We overreact, So I don't want
(25:37):
this game to be the determining factor, but I think
it'll play out that way.
Speaker 5 (25:42):
And here's what I mean.
Speaker 4 (25:43):
I've been talking about how Texas A and M is
an over ranked, over value team. They are not the
number three best college football team in the country. In fact,
that's Notre Dame. It's not them, it's Notre Dame. And
Notre Dame's right behind Indiana. Who's right behind Ohio State.
That's the bottom line. Power rating wise, A and M
(26:07):
top fifteen at best at best at best. Here's the problem.
Texas is a top ten and the wrong team's favored
in this game. You have Texas with the seventh toughest
strength of schedule compared to the number fifteenth for Texas.
A and M say they had a two x tougher
strength of schedule, and yet they have the eleventh most
(26:30):
deficient defense versus the number twenty seventh most deficient defense.
And even though the A and M offense is a
couple slots.
Speaker 5 (26:40):
Just a few slots above.
Speaker 4 (26:42):
Them in offense to efficiency, it's because they've had a
two x easier schedule than Texas.
Speaker 5 (26:50):
That's it.
Speaker 4 (26:51):
Bottom line, wrong team is favored, and for me, that
warrants that kind of bet regardless of outcome. These are
the kind of bets where I feel comfortable kick my
feet off. I know I got the best of it,
and the fact that I got my subscribers down at
plus three with a little juice and now there's two's
(27:12):
out there tells me the market's starting to agree with me.
That's why I send it out at plus one ten
today with the instructions at plus one oh one are better.
It's a bet because if you're giving me plus one
oh one on a coin flip, I'm gonna take it.
And this is no worse than a coin flip. There's
absolutely no reason that Texas should be an underdog. You
(27:33):
could argue they shouldn't. Maybe they shouldn't be a favorite,
but they shouldn't be an underdog, and that tells me
at worst, they're a coin flip. So if you're gonna
give me plus three plus two and a half, plus
two or plus one and a half on a coin flip,
I'm taking it. You give me plus one oh one,
one oh five, one ten, one twenty, I'm taking it.
And the fact that X text A and M is
(27:53):
favored doesn't surprise me because it's based on the rankings
which have allowed us to win over one hundred units
so far this year in college football.
Speaker 5 (28:02):
So Saturday talk.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
Before the game in the comments, let me know why
I'm wrong, because when Texas beats Texas A and M,
I don't want to hear I have anything personal about
Texas A and M.
Speaker 5 (28:13):
I could care less. It just happens.
Speaker 2 (28:15):
I'm not the third best team.
Speaker 1 (28:16):
In the country to say to say, all right, Marco D'Angelo,
before you give us your best bat, let us know
what's going on over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
Oh, we've got a plethora of offers this week over
at wager talk, so head over to check them all out.
Two of the more popular ones at well three, we
still have Weekend Warrior forty nine dollars. You can pick
up your favorite cap or Saturday and Sunday get all
their football. Why spend forty nine dollars though for two days?
(28:46):
When this week you can get seven days with our
Thanksgiving special, just six seven, sixty seven dollars. We'll get
you seven days this week. That is the best deal going.
If you want to lock in your favorite capper for
the entire bowl season, you can pick up the final
week of the regular season, pick up the championship conference
(29:10):
games next week, and all of the balls for one
hundred and seventy nine dollars. Best deal, Take that seven
day for sixty seven dollars, because you're not only gonna
get football for seven days, You're gonna get basketball, college
and pro. You're gonna get hockey, everything that's going on.
If you have a capper that does some of the
(29:30):
other sports, tennis, so forth, soccer, whatever, you get anything
that happens from that capper in the next seven days,
including those five percent plays that sell for thirty five
dollars by themselves. And speaking of five percent plays, yeah,
I've got one going this week and we have been
on a roll. We hit our five percent last week
(29:52):
with TCU outright winner as an underdog. Now thirty eight
and sixteen since February of twenty twenty four, sixty seven
dollars get you seven days. My best bet This week, Kelly,
We're going to a former Pac twelve matchup. It's now
in the Big ten and it's Washington and Oregon. Last
(30:13):
week we had a play on Oregon against USC and
you know that was pretty simple. Why well, because Oregon
was at home and Oregon was playing defense in USC
that I felt wouldn't be able to stop Oregon. Now
the difference this week, well, Oregon's on the road and
they're playing a team that does play defense in Washington.
(30:37):
Washington has held seven of their eleven opponents to twenty
one or fewer points this year. Only one team or
excuse me, no one has scored over twenty five points.
On them this year. Washington's not going to be intimidated
by Oregon, is I alluded to? These two former Pac
twelve teams know each other well. They've played four times
(30:59):
since and three of the four games have been decided
by three points. Washington's already Bowl eligible, so there's no
pressure on them. Oregon. Yeah, they're trying to secure their
spot in the big playoff championship playoff formatt and looking
(31:23):
at this one, I think the pressure's all on them.
I think Washington's the team that can take the chances
at home, and I don't think this Oregon team is
the same team on the road. Yeah. They went into
Penn State and beat Penn State earlier this year. The
game went to overtime. What did Penn State do since then? Well,
we know what happened to them. They had that horrible
(31:43):
losing streak and fired James Franklin. They went on the
road to Iowa. What happened there? They escaped with a
two point victory. The only teams that they handled on
the road were Northwestern and Rutgers, and those are not
good teams. I'm gonna go ahead. It's senior Day. Home
crowd goes home happy, I'm calling at Washington twenty seven
(32:05):
to twenty four.
Speaker 2 (32:08):
Yeah, that is gonna probably be one of the legs
of my three team money line park.
Speaker 1 (32:12):
Like al right here, already circle that I just wrote
Marco in parentheses.
Speaker 2 (32:17):
Marco has been doing very well in college football.
Speaker 1 (32:19):
And I love when we agree a game that you
guys probably aren't gona agree with me on here, and
I don't really care. And it was tough for me
to find a best bet because well, I was celebrating
my birthday yesterday and we had a Thanksgiving show. By
the way, if you haven't caught the Thanksgiving Show, it
is up on the wager Talk YouTube channel of the
NFL show for Sunday and Monday will be up as well.
(32:40):
Kansas State minus seventeen and a half. Here's the reality.
Kansas State should have probably won that game in Salt
Lake City last week, and if that was the case,
I would not have been on them here. And they
had a heartbreaking loss, but they still need one game.
Speaker 2 (32:57):
To become bull eligible.
Speaker 1 (32:58):
Do these kids really care about going to a Liberty
Bowl or another game in Texas?
Speaker 2 (33:02):
I sure as hell don't.
Speaker 1 (33:04):
But the reality is is after that emotional press conference,
with Chris Cleman. Mini players spoke out and said, we
still want to play for this team, We still care.
I got another text from a buddy who's we'll call
him a beat writer if you will, for Kansas State,
and he said they are effing pissed. And I don't
know if I've ever heard him use language like that
(33:26):
when texting me prior. So those are the types of
we'll call it insight that I want to know when
I'm laying this many points with the team, you've.
Speaker 2 (33:35):
Got Colorado on the flip side.
Speaker 1 (33:37):
Coach Prime kind of joked in his press or, oh yeah,
we want to play?
Speaker 2 (33:40):
Spoiler do they? They don't look like they want to
play at all.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
In fact, his son is now a starting quarterback for
the Cleveland Browns, and I feel like he's got both
feet out the door. Look for k State to win
big on Saturday. I'll do a marcoism here. I'm gonna
call it forty four to ten spring back the guys,
and as I already alluded to, oh Marko.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
Go ahead, Kelly. I want to Kansas State give you
a present for your birthday. Hopefully they give you that,
but I want to tell listeners, yeah, it's a day late,
but get into the comment section like you did for me.
Tell Kelly all caps, happy Kelly, Give Kelly some love,
Happy birthday, Kelly.
Speaker 2 (34:22):
Thank you guys.
Speaker 4 (34:22):
I'm still a little bit confused for that sixty seven
dollars deal.
Speaker 5 (34:28):
If I was okay nowhere ran that by me?
Speaker 6 (34:32):
I guess that's you're not jumping on board for sixty
seven bucks, will be that's the IQ test this week.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
I can't with you, guys.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
Marco's grandchild finally explain to him what six seven means
and now he wants to use it and all of
our sales promo to boost the algorithm.
Speaker 2 (34:49):
Well, like you said, guys, jump in the comments.
Speaker 1 (34:51):
Agree with us, disagree with us. Want to tell me
that you hate me, you want to tell me that
you love me? I don't care, but we appreciate you
guys taking the time to watch. If you guys are
looking for that NFL show, you guys know where you
can catch it right here on the Wager Talking YouTube
channel Mega Show. And also if you missed it, that
Thanksgiving special is up as well.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.