October 25, 2025 • 23 mins
Which teams should you avoid in Week 8 of the NFL season? Join Steve for the full Week 8 edition of his NFL Public Betting Report.
00:00 Introduction
01:32 Bengals vs. Jets
03:49 Falcons vs. Dolphins
06:37 Buccaneers at Saints
09:30 Like, Comment, Subscribe & Bell
10:01 #1 NFL Best Bets L365 at WagerTalk
10:21 Promo code: SM199
11:03 49ers at Texans
13:32 Bears at Ravens
14:42 Steelers vs. Packers (SNF)
18:05 What Are YOU Betting?
20:49 365 Day Special (-$500 discount)
00:00 Introduction
01:32 Bengals vs. Jets
03:49 Falcons vs. Dolphins
06:37 Buccaneers at Saints
09:30 Like, Comment, Subscribe & Bell
10:01 #1 NFL Best Bets L365 at WagerTalk
10:21 Promo code: SM199
11:03 49ers at Texans
13:32 Bears at Ravens
14:42 Steelers vs. Packers (SNF)
18:05 What Are YOU Betting?
20:49 365 Day Special (-$500 discount)
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
You know, heading into last week, fad in the Public
had cast five of the first six weeks here in
this video, and I told you last week it was
about the smallest public consensus I've ever seen overall on
the board. And what happens, Well, the public finally gets
a run and they go four and o last week.
So do they get back on track again this week
or do we fade them? Well, they're heavily active, six
public plays including three ding ding red flag alert public
(00:23):
underdogs as well huge card. Here for week eight, I'm
going to tell you the most public sides in the
NFL and let you know if we should play them
or fade them. That's coming up free for you right here,
right now is is Steve Merrill wager Talk dot com,
right back here on wager Talk TV. And if you're
new to this video, I give you the most public
NFL sides each week and long term, fad these do
make you money, and it had been very profitable. Five
of the first six weeks Fading the Public had worked out,
(00:45):
including going sixteen and eight against the official public plays,
three and two against the additional leans. So overall, combined,
as I checked my notes, nineteen and ten with a
push the first six weeks. Well last week though, in
week seven the public finally got it right. Four and
oh sweep. And I told you last week it was
the smallest public consensus I'd seen overall, even though we
had four public plays the overall card, very little consensus
(01:08):
of the public was treading lightly. Well, that's not the
case here in week eight. They are stepping out there,
getting confident. And there are six official public plays, three
favorites and then three dogs. And you know I love
fading public underdogs. We'll get to those in a moment.
But let's look at the first three public favorites here.
And we don't have to wait long as they start
on the early card at one o'clock Easter in this Sunday,
(01:28):
October the twenty sixth, first one on the board Cincinnati Bengals.
Who would have thunk the Bengals would be public all
of a sudden, Well, they look pretty good. On Thursday
Night Football a week ago, Joe Flacco has looked good
with his new team, looked really good against the Steelers.
Of course, we gave you the over in that game
with my free Thursday Night Prime video also cast with
the Chargers this week. If you're missing on those Thursday
(01:50):
night videos, you are truly missing out eight and one
Now with the free Thursday night NFL videos here on
the channel, make sure he clicks subscribe, and he clicked
that bells he never miss out when the next one
supposed for this coming week, which is going to be
I believe Dolphins Ravens very interesting matchup. Bengals are all
of a sudden public But as I've always told you,
it's not necessarily about playing on a team. Sometimes the
public just doesn't want to play the other team. And
(02:10):
that's obviously the case with the New York Jets, who
look horrible this year, especially on the offensive side of
the ball. Hard for me to make a case for
the Jets, But then again, I'm not in a hurry
to lay six six and a half points with the
Bengals team that's been pretty much an underdog in all
other recent games. Yes, Joe Flacco had a nice breakout game,
but that was a National TV Spotlight Thursday night edition.
(02:32):
Wouldn't be shocked to see them regress here. And keep
in mind the Bengals did lose four in a row
and gone one and three against the spread. Their four
previous games, all as an underdog, and now they're actually
laying nearly a touchdown in this one. If you're looking
for maybe a catalyst to turn things around for the Jets,
they are expected to start Tyrod Taylor. Both Taylor and
Justin Fields are battling injuries. Tyrod listed as the starter.
(02:54):
He's been pretty weak this season three touchdowns, three picks,
seventy three rating. Justin Fields has actually been okay a
four touchdowns, known interceptions, a ninety one point one running
The problem is neither guy can throw touchdowns in The
passing attack has really struggled at times this year, So
it comes down to if you think Joe Flacco has
really figured something out with his new team. Problem with
the Jets is when they get behind with that terrible
(03:16):
passing attack, they just can't catch up. But one thing
they do well is actually run the ball nearly five
yards per carry. And Cincinnati has been a bad defensive team. Yes,
Flac goes help in the offense, but their defense is
still really bad and they have one of the worst
d's in the league, given up thirty and a half points.
Maybe fade the public here, hold your nose with the Jets.
They probably have to cover, maybe win a game at
some point, and Cincinnati maybe lets down a little bit
(03:39):
after that big win over the Steelers, but still tough
to trust New York here until we see something better
in the quarterback position. That's at one o'clock Eastern. Also
in the one o'clock Eastern card, we have those Dolphins
I was just talking about against the Atlanta Falcons, and
the Falcons currently a seven and a half point favorite.
And one thing I like to do here mid season
is look back before the season started with the advanced
(03:59):
line would have been on some of these games. And
by the way, Cincinnati's gonna be about a seven and
a half point favorite of the Jets preseason. That's because
Burrow is in the lineup, so not a huge difference
there because the Jets have been so bad. Now e'ven
without Burrow. There's still the six to six and a
half point favorite, but this line saw a big difference
from the preseason number. This summer, Atlanta is gonna be
about a one and a half point home favorite. Now
they're a seven and a half point favorite. And that's
(04:21):
what Pennick's questionable at quarterback. If he's unable to go,
Kirk Cousins will get the start. I don't think there's
a huge drop off one way or the other with
either one of those signal callers. Pinnix has been mediocre
at times this year, Cousins is obviously an NFL veteran,
and Miami's defense has been one of the worst in
the league this season, but against both the run and
the pass, giving up over five yards per rush, over
(04:43):
seven and a half yards per pass, over six yards
per play, over twenty nine points per game. So this
is a situation where Atlanta is the public side, but
it's hard to disagree, especially with Atlanta coming off a
bad show in last Sunday Night. And keep in mind,
I gave you the forty nine ers in the under
here in the Sunday Night video last week a two
and oh sweep also ended up using the forty nine
(05:03):
ers as an official best bet for my clients at
wager talk dot com, So I thought that was a
bad spot for Atlanta. I'm not gonna penalize them too
much for the bad showing here, but a lot of
uncertainty with the Falcons in the quarterback situation. They do
qualify as a decent teaser selection at minus seven and
a half. Taking them down to minus one and a
half does qualify as a strong six point teaser. We'll
(05:25):
see where this line closes on Sunday once the quarterback
situation has a little bit more clarity to it. And
one thing I also will point out about the Miami Dolphins.
They're having a terrible season, no question about it, but turnovers,
as often the case has been, made them look even
worse in recent weeks. Seven turnovers and only one force
their last two games, and one of those was only
(05:45):
a two point loss to the Chargers, even though they
had a three to one deficit. Last week though, four turnovers,
none forced against the Browns. That's why that one got
ugly and they lost thirty one to six. We'll see
if they can reverse the turnover fortune. Even against Carolina
when they had a plus two margin a few games ago,
they still lost out right, and they're only one of
the season against the Jets. They had a three to
zero turnover edge in that Monday night game if you recall,
(06:07):
and barely won by six. It's a really bad Miami team.
Got to figure the coaches on the hot seat might
very well be fired if they lose this game. Not
a lot of value with Atlanta at minus seven and
a half with the uncertainty of quarterback, but they do
qualify as a decent teaser, taking them down to minus
one and a half on Sunday afternoon. That's also at
one o'clock Eastern. All right, let's keep it rolling here.
We'll look at your third favorite and then get to
(06:29):
those three ding ding public underdogs, which I can't wait
to talk about because I do want to fade those.
A third game is on the Lake card at four
oh five Eastern Sunday afternoon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, this
line is currently four in most spots. I even see
some three and a half. I even see some four
and a half, So it's really jumping around. And Tampa
does have some injuries Godwin Irvin Evans all out two receivers,
(06:51):
running back, really three of their best offensive threats. But
it looks like that's being priced into this line because
New Orleans, a one and six straight up New Orleans
team is only getting about four points right now now
at home last week we recommended New Orleans in the
video to Faye Chicago. They came up short. Well, the
public has fading him again this week. And while I'm
not a believer in the Saints overall this season, they're
(07:11):
just one and six straight up two and five against
the number, this is a spot which Tampa's might be
a little bit up against it with a short handed lineup.
They are coming off the loss to Detroit, and normally
it'd say, well, quality team bounces back, but I just
don't know still if Tampa really is a quality team
and Baker Mayfield a lot of you said, oh, he
won't regress. I told you last week in the Monday
Night video. I gave you both Seattle and Detroit a
(07:32):
two and oh sweep for that Monday Night video two
and oh sweep with the Sunday Night video once again.
Hope you're checking out these free play videos. They've been
doing incredibly well here on wager Talk TV. But we
also used Detroit as an official client best bet. That
was part of my three to one seventy five percent
week in the NFL last week, and I thought it
was a bad spot for Tampa. I thought Mayfield was
due to regress, and boy did he his worst out
(07:54):
of the season, only fifty six percent completions and a
very week sixty six point one quarterback rating. We'll see
if he can turn things around against what's been a
pretty bad Tampa Bay team overall this season. And Tampa's
pass defense, though, has been average and their runding has
been averaged. It's their offense that has really struggled. And
if you look at Tampa's defense, they're actually slightly below
(08:15):
average this season, where New Orleans is slightly above average.
So we are getting the better defensive team as a
home dog here. And I know everyone's in love with Mayfield,
who was the third favorite to win the MVP before
his bad show in last week. Well, Spencer Ratler also
at a sixty six point three rating last week, but
look at his previous starts before that one to oh three,
ninety nine and a half eighty nine eighty three one
(08:35):
eighteen QB ratings and on the season in eighty eight
point four rating and sixty eight percent completions. He's actually
not playing bad football and we're getting a slightly better defense.
I don't I want to say the Saints for a
live dog, but obviously a plus three and a half
or four if you're playing them here, you probably have
to think they are and they have a chance of winning.
I'd probably fade the public in this one with New
Orleans plus four or more that goes late at four
(08:57):
oh five Eastern. Are those are your three favorites. We
got three public dogs. I'm going to get to those
in a quick moment. Just a reminder if you're liking
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let's get to those three public underdogs. I mentioned how
the public was very indecisive. Last week, they were leaning
(10:42):
towards some dogs. The overall consensus wasn't that strong, and boom,
all of a sudden, they go four to oh after
losing five of the first six weeks. Well, this week
they're coming out with six public plays I'm giving you
here in this video, and three of them are dogs,
which is interesting because normally at most we have maybe
only one public dog in a week. Well we've got
three of them this week. Let's walk run down in
start time order. The top of the schedule at one
(11:03):
o'clock Eastern. The San Francisco forty nine ers plus two
a very public dog this week, and not surprising, both
these teams played national TV games last week. San Francisco
of course, looked good on Sunday Night Football, beating the
Falcons as we talked about earlier, and then, of course,
the Texans did not look too good on Monday Night Football,
losing to Seattle. If you recall, the most public player
(11:23):
of the week last week was the Seattle Seahawks minus
three at home, and I didn't disagree in the Monday
Night Football video with the fade the public video, I
said I'd do Seattle. And then the Monday Night Football video.
I gave you Detroit in the early game and then
Seattle in the lake games, so I didn't disagree with
the public in that one. So the fact they faded
Houston and won last week, they're coming right back and
fade them again, especially since they're favored. But I think
(11:44):
this is one of those situations in which we do
fade the public dog. It looks like a little bit
of a flat spot for San Francisco. Big spotlight home
National TV went against Atlanta and then now they're going
on the road in a non conference situation against the Texans.
And keep in mind, while Houston and did not play
great on Monday Night Football, they still have a very
strong statistical defense this season. In fact, they're giving up
(12:06):
just fourteen and a half points a game and less
than five yards per play, much better numbers in what
San Francisco has as far as against the pass, especially
almost a yard per pass better defensively than San fran
brock Perty, by the way, has been ruled out again
this week. Mac Jones will start. I don't think there's
a huge drop off with mac Jones, but I wouldn't
be shocked if he doesn't regress a bit here, kind
(12:27):
of like that Baker Mayfield situation, and on the road
here after a big home win on national TV. Don't
fully trust Mac Jones to have one of his better
games here. And I think the Texans, I don't want
to say a live dog, because they're actually favored, but
the public is all over the dog here. I do
think we fade the public with the Houston Texans. I
look for them to play a little better now. One
of my concerns in this game that will point out
(12:49):
to you is I like Seattle last week. Didn't disagree
with the public in that one, but it is concerning
that the Texans had a four to one turnover edge
and still lost the game. In fact, they've only turned
the ball over once in the last three weeks. They've
had an eight to one turnover edge four to one
last week and still lost twenty seven to nineteen. But
(13:09):
the other two games which they had the turnover edge
against Tennessee and Baltimore, they won by combined scores of
seventy to ten. I look for Texans the bounce back
this week might be a little bit of a regression
spot for San Francisco. That's an early game at one
o'clock Eastern. All right, we'll keep it moving here with
another public dog for you on the daytime card at
one eastern. Next game on the schedule right below this
(13:30):
one in the rotation, the Chicago Bears plus seven not
a surprise. Bears were a public played last week against
New Orleans. I told you that I thought we actually
should fade the Bears last week. It did not work out.
In fact, that's the only game I missed on my
best back card, my seventy five percent week in the NFL.
The only one I missed last week was fading the Bears.
So we'll come right back in fadom this week. I
think the spot is even better to fade them now.
(13:52):
You know last week they're coming off with three straight
underdog wins in a row. The problem is we had
to use the Saints, and the Saints aren't a good team.
Well you'd say, well, the Ravens aren't. They're just one
win this season, just one in five. But they're better
than that. And this is a great setup. Coming off
the bye week. Baltimore had to buy at the perfect
time after four straight losses straight up in ATS, a
chance to reset and now play a very winnable game.
(14:13):
And let's keep in mind with Pittsburgh losing to Cincinnati
last Thursday night, the Browns looking weak as well. This
division is wide opens on the Ravens are actually not
out of it despite being one in five straight up
and against the spread. I think this is a great
bounce back spot for Baltimore at minus seven, and I
like the fact the public is on the other side.
I would fade the Bears this week. I think it
works out with the Ravens minus seven. That goes at
(14:35):
one o'clock Eastern on Sunday. And then finally, the last
public play is on the Sunday night game National TV
NBC eight to twenty Eastern. The public is on the
Pittsburgh Steelers little Aaron Rodgers versus his former team. I
guess this game is not in Green Bay, it's in Pittsburgh,
but yes, Rodgers has taken on the Packers. And by
the way, I did a deep dive ten minute video
(14:55):
on this on the standalone Sunday night video here, So
if you want a little bit of a deeper dive
and analytics for this game, check out that after this video.
But I do like the Packers in this one for
several reasons. First of all, I like fading public underdogs.
And here again if you're new to this video. The
reason fading public dogs is one of my favorite subsets
is because the public normally plays favorites, they play over
so whenever you see them on underdogs or unders, it
(15:17):
catches your eye. And I hate playing bad teams. And
we talked about some of these earlier games, like the Jets,
the Saints, the Dolphins. You know, normally, when you're fading
the public, you're having to play bad teams. I usually
kind of eliminate those as well. I don't like playing
bad teams. I just scratch those off the list normally.
The beauty of fading public underdogs is that by default
you're getting really technically the better team as a favorite,
(15:39):
and you get a quality team. And that's definitely case
with the Packers. The Packers might be the best team
in the NFL. Both these squads have four wins. Packers
only have one loss because of course they lost. They
tied the Cowboys, so they're four to one in one.
Pittsburgh is four and two. Pittsburgh does have a bit
of a mini buy after the Thursday Night game, but
their defense was unable to slow down the Bengals and
Joe Flacco and Bay has been really good defensively this season.
(16:02):
Huge defensive edge in this game. The Packers defense perhaps
the best in the league right now. I know the
Texans have better numbers, but the Packers have been strong
on both sides, stopping the run and the pass, and
they're a good offensive team. On top of that, they're
giving up just five point three yards per pass. Pittsburgh's
allowing six point six, and the Packers are averaging almost
a yard per pass more offensively, So huge passing edge here.
(16:24):
I know it's Rogers versus his former team, but I
think Jordan Love is going to win this battle. And
I like the fact the line is only minus three.
Probably should be three and a half for four. And
that's another reason fading the public works in the long
run is when you get one sided action, the odds
makers have to adjust and instead of laying three and
a half for four, we get that key number of
minus three. And there's about an eight to nine percent
chance the Packers win by exactly a field goal in
(16:46):
this game, so minus three or less. I like the Packers,
and I think this is another public dog we can
fade this time on Sunday Night eight, twenty eastern on NBC. Hey,
there you go. It's a huge public card. You know,
the public finally got it right last week and they're
coming back with vengeance this week. Six public plays. Do
we play them or fade them? Well? I gave you
my thoughts on these games. What are your thoughts? Comment below?
(17:06):
Once again to recap. The three public favorites are Bengals
minus the six six and a half. We've also got
the Falcons minus seven and a half. Keeping on the
quarterback situation there, Pinnicks or Cousins has announced as the
official starter. That line might move a bit. And then
Tampa Bay minus the four points. That's anywhere from three
and a half to four, we'll say minus fourth Tampa.
And then the three public dogs forty nine Ers plus two,
(17:28):
the Bears plus seven, and the Steelers plus three. Those
are three public underdogs, the most public dogs we've been
in one given week in several years. Here we'll see
how this plays out on Sunday Week eight, October the
twenty sixth. Seriously, though I do read the comments, I
love the support. What are your thoughts? Which games do
you agree with? Which ones are you playing? Which ones
are you fading? What other NFL best bets you like?
(17:50):
Sides totals player props for this Sunday Drop them in
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(22:53):
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You know, heading into last week, fad in the Public
had cast five of the first six weeks here in
this video, and I told you last week it was
about the smallest public consensus I've ever seen overall on
the board. And what happens, Well, the public finally gets
a run and they go four and o last week.
So do they get back on track again this week
or do we fade them? Well, they're heavily active, six
public plays including three ding ding red flag alert public
(00:23):
underdogs as well huge card. Here for week eight, I'm
going to tell you the most public sides in the
NFL and let you know if we should play them
or fade them. That's coming up free for you right here,
right now is is Steve Merrill wager Talk dot com,
right back here on wager Talk TV. And if you're
new to this video, I give you the most public
NFL sides each week and long term, fad these do
make you money, and it had been very profitable. Five
of the first six weeks Fading the Public had worked out,
(00:45):
including going sixteen and eight against the official public plays,
three and two against the additional leans. So overall, combined,
as I checked my notes, nineteen and ten with a
push the first six weeks. Well last week though, in
week seven the public finally got it right. Four and
oh sweep. And I told you last week it was
the smallest public consensus I'd seen overall, even though we
had four public plays the overall card, very little consensus
(01:08):
of the public was treading lightly. Well, that's not the
case here in week eight. They are stepping out there,
getting confident. And there are six official public plays, three
favorites and then three dogs. And you know I love
fading public underdogs. We'll get to those in a moment.
But let's look at the first three public favorites here.
And we don't have to wait long as they start
on the early card at one o'clock Easter in this Sunday,
(01:28):
October the twenty sixth, first one on the board Cincinnati Bengals.
Who would have thunk the Bengals would be public all
of a sudden, Well, they look pretty good. On Thursday
Night Football a week ago, Joe Flacco has looked good
with his new team, looked really good against the Steelers.
Of course, we gave you the over in that game
with my free Thursday Night Prime video also cast with
the Chargers this week. If you're missing on those Thursday
(01:50):
night videos, you are truly missing out eight and one
Now with the free Thursday night NFL videos here on
the channel, make sure he clicks subscribe, and he clicked
that bells he never miss out when the next one
supposed for this coming week, which is going to be
I believe Dolphins Ravens very interesting matchup. Bengals are all
of a sudden public But as I've always told you,
it's not necessarily about playing on a team. Sometimes the
public just doesn't want to play the other team. And
(02:10):
that's obviously the case with the New York Jets, who
look horrible this year, especially on the offensive side of
the ball. Hard for me to make a case for
the Jets, But then again, I'm not in a hurry
to lay six six and a half points with the
Bengals team that's been pretty much an underdog in all
other recent games. Yes, Joe Flacco had a nice breakout game,
but that was a National TV Spotlight Thursday night edition.
(02:32):
Wouldn't be shocked to see them regress here. And keep
in mind the Bengals did lose four in a row
and gone one and three against the spread. Their four
previous games, all as an underdog, and now they're actually
laying nearly a touchdown in this one. If you're looking
for maybe a catalyst to turn things around for the Jets,
they are expected to start Tyrod Taylor. Both Taylor and
Justin Fields are battling injuries. Tyrod listed as the starter.
(02:54):
He's been pretty weak this season three touchdowns, three picks,
seventy three rating. Justin Fields has actually been okay a
four touchdowns, known interceptions, a ninety one point one running
The problem is neither guy can throw touchdowns in The
passing attack has really struggled at times this year, So
it comes down to if you think Joe Flacco has
really figured something out with his new team. Problem with
the Jets is when they get behind with that terrible
(03:16):
passing attack, they just can't catch up. But one thing
they do well is actually run the ball nearly five
yards per carry. And Cincinnati has been a bad defensive team. Yes,
Flac goes help in the offense, but their defense is
still really bad and they have one of the worst
d's in the league, given up thirty and a half points.
Maybe fade the public here, hold your nose with the Jets.
They probably have to cover, maybe win a game at
some point, and Cincinnati maybe lets down a little bit
(03:39):
after that big win over the Steelers, but still tough
to trust New York here until we see something better
in the quarterback position. That's at one o'clock Eastern. Also
in the one o'clock Eastern card, we have those Dolphins
I was just talking about against the Atlanta Falcons, and
the Falcons currently a seven and a half point favorite.
And one thing I like to do here mid season
is look back before the season started with the advanced
(03:59):
line would have been on some of these games. And
by the way, Cincinnati's gonna be about a seven and
a half point favorite of the Jets preseason. That's because
Burrow is in the lineup, so not a huge difference
there because the Jets have been so bad. Now e'ven
without Burrow. There's still the six to six and a
half point favorite, but this line saw a big difference
from the preseason number. This summer, Atlanta is gonna be
about a one and a half point home favorite. Now
they're a seven and a half point favorite. And that's
(04:21):
what Pennick's questionable at quarterback. If he's unable to go,
Kirk Cousins will get the start. I don't think there's
a huge drop off one way or the other with
either one of those signal callers. Pinnix has been mediocre
at times this year, Cousins is obviously an NFL veteran,
and Miami's defense has been one of the worst in
the league this season, but against both the run and
the pass, giving up over five yards per rush, over
(04:43):
seven and a half yards per pass, over six yards
per play, over twenty nine points per game. So this
is a situation where Atlanta is the public side, but
it's hard to disagree, especially with Atlanta coming off a
bad show in last Sunday Night. And keep in mind,
I gave you the forty nine ers in the under
here in the Sunday Night video last week a two
and oh sweep also ended up using the forty nine
(05:03):
ers as an official best bet for my clients at
wager talk dot com, So I thought that was a
bad spot for Atlanta. I'm not gonna penalize them too
much for the bad showing here, but a lot of
uncertainty with the Falcons in the quarterback situation. They do
qualify as a decent teaser selection at minus seven and
a half. Taking them down to minus one and a
half does qualify as a strong six point teaser. We'll
(05:25):
see where this line closes on Sunday once the quarterback
situation has a little bit more clarity to it. And
one thing I also will point out about the Miami Dolphins.
They're having a terrible season, no question about it, but turnovers,
as often the case has been, made them look even
worse in recent weeks. Seven turnovers and only one force
their last two games, and one of those was only
(05:45):
a two point loss to the Chargers, even though they
had a three to one deficit. Last week though, four turnovers,
none forced against the Browns. That's why that one got
ugly and they lost thirty one to six. We'll see
if they can reverse the turnover fortune. Even against Carolina
when they had a plus two margin a few games ago,
they still lost out right, and they're only one of
the season against the Jets. They had a three to
zero turnover edge in that Monday night game if you recall,
(06:07):
and barely won by six. It's a really bad Miami team.
Got to figure the coaches on the hot seat might
very well be fired if they lose this game. Not
a lot of value with Atlanta at minus seven and
a half with the uncertainty of quarterback, but they do
qualify as a decent teaser, taking them down to minus
one and a half on Sunday afternoon. That's also at
one o'clock Eastern. All right, let's keep it rolling here.
We'll look at your third favorite and then get to
(06:29):
those three ding ding public underdogs, which I can't wait
to talk about because I do want to fade those.
A third game is on the Lake card at four
oh five Eastern Sunday afternoon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, this
line is currently four in most spots. I even see
some three and a half. I even see some four
and a half, So it's really jumping around. And Tampa
does have some injuries Godwin Irvin Evans all out two receivers,
(06:51):
running back, really three of their best offensive threats. But
it looks like that's being priced into this line because
New Orleans, a one and six straight up New Orleans
team is only getting about four points right now now
at home last week we recommended New Orleans in the
video to Faye Chicago. They came up short. Well, the
public has fading him again this week. And while I'm
not a believer in the Saints overall this season, they're
(07:11):
just one and six straight up two and five against
the number, this is a spot which Tampa's might be
a little bit up against it with a short handed lineup.
They are coming off the loss to Detroit, and normally
it'd say, well, quality team bounces back, but I just
don't know still if Tampa really is a quality team
and Baker Mayfield a lot of you said, oh, he
won't regress. I told you last week in the Monday
Night video. I gave you both Seattle and Detroit a
(07:32):
two and oh sweep for that Monday Night video two
and oh sweep with the Sunday Night video once again.
Hope you're checking out these free play videos. They've been
doing incredibly well here on wager Talk TV. But we
also used Detroit as an official client best bet. That
was part of my three to one seventy five percent
week in the NFL last week, and I thought it
was a bad spot for Tampa. I thought Mayfield was
due to regress, and boy did he his worst out
(07:54):
of the season, only fifty six percent completions and a
very week sixty six point one quarterback rating. We'll see
if he can turn things around against what's been a
pretty bad Tampa Bay team overall this season. And Tampa's
pass defense, though, has been average and their runding has
been averaged. It's their offense that has really struggled. And
if you look at Tampa's defense, they're actually slightly below
(08:15):
average this season, where New Orleans is slightly above average.
So we are getting the better defensive team as a
home dog here. And I know everyone's in love with Mayfield,
who was the third favorite to win the MVP before
his bad show in last week. Well, Spencer Ratler also
at a sixty six point three rating last week, but
look at his previous starts before that one to oh three,
ninety nine and a half eighty nine eighty three one
(08:35):
eighteen QB ratings and on the season in eighty eight
point four rating and sixty eight percent completions. He's actually
not playing bad football and we're getting a slightly better defense.
I don't I want to say the Saints for a
live dog, but obviously a plus three and a half
or four if you're playing them here, you probably have
to think they are and they have a chance of winning.
I'd probably fade the public in this one with New
Orleans plus four or more that goes late at four
(08:57):
oh five Eastern. Are those are your three favorites. We
got three public dogs. I'm going to get to those
in a quick moment. Just a reminder if you're liking
these videos, thumbs up, like positive comments below, and I
will keep them coming. I mentioned the Thursday Night NFL
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(09:17):
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is posted here on wager Talk TV, and Basketball's here.
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(10:00):
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let's get to those three public underdogs. I mentioned how
the public was very indecisive. Last week, they were leaning
(10:42):
towards some dogs. The overall consensus wasn't that strong, and boom,
all of a sudden, they go four to oh after
losing five of the first six weeks. Well, this week
they're coming out with six public plays I'm giving you
here in this video, and three of them are dogs,
which is interesting because normally at most we have maybe
only one public dog in a week. Well we've got
three of them this week. Let's walk run down in
start time order. The top of the schedule at one
(11:03):
o'clock Eastern. The San Francisco forty nine ers plus two
a very public dog this week, and not surprising, both
these teams played national TV games last week. San Francisco
of course, looked good on Sunday Night Football, beating the
Falcons as we talked about earlier, and then, of course,
the Texans did not look too good on Monday Night Football,
losing to Seattle. If you recall, the most public player
(11:23):
of the week last week was the Seattle Seahawks minus
three at home, and I didn't disagree in the Monday
Night Football video with the fade the public video, I
said I'd do Seattle. And then the Monday Night Football video.
I gave you Detroit in the early game and then
Seattle in the lake games, so I didn't disagree with
the public in that one. So the fact they faded
Houston and won last week, they're coming right back and
fade them again, especially since they're favored. But I think
(11:44):
this is one of those situations in which we do
fade the public dog. It looks like a little bit
of a flat spot for San Francisco. Big spotlight home
National TV went against Atlanta and then now they're going
on the road in a non conference situation against the Texans.
And keep in mind, while Houston and did not play
great on Monday Night Football, they still have a very
strong statistical defense this season. In fact, they're giving up
(12:06):
just fourteen and a half points a game and less
than five yards per play, much better numbers in what
San Francisco has as far as against the pass, especially
almost a yard per pass better defensively than San fran
brock Perty, by the way, has been ruled out again
this week. Mac Jones will start. I don't think there's
a huge drop off with mac Jones, but I wouldn't
be shocked if he doesn't regress a bit here, kind
(12:27):
of like that Baker Mayfield situation, and on the road
here after a big home win on national TV. Don't
fully trust Mac Jones to have one of his better
games here. And I think the Texans, I don't want
to say a live dog, because they're actually favored, but
the public is all over the dog here. I do
think we fade the public with the Houston Texans. I
look for them to play a little better now. One
of my concerns in this game that will point out
(12:49):
to you is I like Seattle last week. Didn't disagree
with the public in that one, but it is concerning
that the Texans had a four to one turnover edge
and still lost the game. In fact, they've only turned
the ball over once in the last three weeks. They've
had an eight to one turnover edge four to one
last week and still lost twenty seven to nineteen. But
(13:09):
the other two games which they had the turnover edge
against Tennessee and Baltimore, they won by combined scores of
seventy to ten. I look for Texans the bounce back
this week might be a little bit of a regression
spot for San Francisco. That's an early game at one
o'clock Eastern. All right, we'll keep it moving here with
another public dog for you on the daytime card at
one eastern. Next game on the schedule right below this
(13:30):
one in the rotation, the Chicago Bears plus seven not
a surprise. Bears were a public played last week against
New Orleans. I told you that I thought we actually
should fade the Bears last week. It did not work out.
In fact, that's the only game I missed on my
best back card, my seventy five percent week in the NFL.
The only one I missed last week was fading the Bears.
So we'll come right back in fadom this week. I
think the spot is even better to fade them now.
(13:52):
You know last week they're coming off with three straight
underdog wins in a row. The problem is we had
to use the Saints, and the Saints aren't a good team.
Well you'd say, well, the Ravens aren't. They're just one
win this season, just one in five. But they're better
than that. And this is a great setup. Coming off
the bye week. Baltimore had to buy at the perfect
time after four straight losses straight up in ATS, a
chance to reset and now play a very winnable game.
(14:13):
And let's keep in mind with Pittsburgh losing to Cincinnati
last Thursday night, the Browns looking weak as well. This
division is wide opens on the Ravens are actually not
out of it despite being one in five straight up
and against the spread. I think this is a great
bounce back spot for Baltimore at minus seven, and I
like the fact the public is on the other side.
I would fade the Bears this week. I think it
works out with the Ravens minus seven. That goes at
(14:35):
one o'clock Eastern on Sunday. And then finally, the last
public play is on the Sunday night game National TV
NBC eight to twenty Eastern. The public is on the
Pittsburgh Steelers little Aaron Rodgers versus his former team. I
guess this game is not in Green Bay, it's in Pittsburgh,
but yes, Rodgers has taken on the Packers. And by
the way, I did a deep dive ten minute video
(14:55):
on this on the standalone Sunday night video here, So
if you want a little bit of a deeper dive
and analytics for this game, check out that after this video.
But I do like the Packers in this one for
several reasons. First of all, I like fading public underdogs.
And here again if you're new to this video. The
reason fading public dogs is one of my favorite subsets
is because the public normally plays favorites, they play over
so whenever you see them on underdogs or unders, it
(15:17):
catches your eye. And I hate playing bad teams. And
we talked about some of these earlier games, like the Jets,
the Saints, the Dolphins. You know, normally, when you're fading
the public, you're having to play bad teams. I usually
kind of eliminate those as well. I don't like playing
bad teams. I just scratch those off the list normally.
The beauty of fading public underdogs is that by default
you're getting really technically the better team as a favorite,
(15:39):
and you get a quality team. And that's definitely case
with the Packers. The Packers might be the best team
in the NFL. Both these squads have four wins. Packers
only have one loss because of course they lost. They
tied the Cowboys, so they're four to one in one.
Pittsburgh is four and two. Pittsburgh does have a bit
of a mini buy after the Thursday Night game, but
their defense was unable to slow down the Bengals and
Joe Flacco and Bay has been really good defensively this season.
(16:02):
Huge defensive edge in this game. The Packers defense perhaps
the best in the league right now. I know the
Texans have better numbers, but the Packers have been strong
on both sides, stopping the run and the pass, and
they're a good offensive team. On top of that, they're
giving up just five point three yards per pass. Pittsburgh's
allowing six point six, and the Packers are averaging almost
a yard per pass more offensively, So huge passing edge here.
(16:24):
I know it's Rogers versus his former team, but I
think Jordan Love is going to win this battle. And
I like the fact the line is only minus three.
Probably should be three and a half for four. And
that's another reason fading the public works in the long
run is when you get one sided action, the odds
makers have to adjust and instead of laying three and
a half for four, we get that key number of
minus three. And there's about an eight to nine percent
chance the Packers win by exactly a field goal in
(16:46):
this game, so minus three or less. I like the Packers,
and I think this is another public dog we can
fade this time on Sunday Night eight, twenty eastern on NBC. Hey,
there you go. It's a huge public card. You know,
the public finally got it right last week and they're
coming back with vengeance this week. Six public plays. Do
we play them or fade them? Well? I gave you
my thoughts on these games. What are your thoughts? Comment below?
(17:06):
Once again to recap. The three public favorites are Bengals
minus the six six and a half. We've also got
the Falcons minus seven and a half. Keeping on the
quarterback situation there, Pinnicks or Cousins has announced as the
official starter. That line might move a bit. And then
Tampa Bay minus the four points. That's anywhere from three
and a half to four, we'll say minus fourth Tampa.
And then the three public dogs forty nine Ers plus two,
(17:28):
the Bears plus seven, and the Steelers plus three. Those
are three public underdogs, the most public dogs we've been
in one given week in several years. Here we'll see
how this plays out on Sunday Week eight, October the
twenty sixth. Seriously, though I do read the comments, I
love the support. What are your thoughts? Which games do
you agree with? Which ones are you playing? Which ones
are you fading? What other NFL best bets you like?
(17:50):
Sides totals player props for this Sunday Drop them in
the comments below, and hey include some analysis if you
have time. Let's learn and earn and win together here
on wager Talk TV. And don't forget if you're liking
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Fade the public video my college football Top twenty five
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the more positive comments, the more these standalone spotlight national
TV games. I'll give you going to keep bringing you
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Monday Night I do have your Commanders and Chiefs video
(18:30):
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more importantly, are you liking the weeknight college football games?
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(19:14):
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it's kind of frustrating because those are the last cut
that just missed the best bat card. So yes, I'm
happy they've gone nine in two and best bets are
hidding over sixty five percent. Imagine I what strong of
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(22:10):
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I know many of you are doing your own handicap
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Use that daily free play on my page. It is
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(22:53):
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