September 27, 2025 ⢠16 mins
đ Which teams should you avoid in Week 4 of the NFL season? Join Steve for the full Week 4 edition of his NFL Public Betting Report.
Would you rather be on the side of the oddsmakers (the ones that work in the huge lavish casinos), or the NFL betting public? Each week, WagerTalk handicapper Steve Merril identifies a handful of plays that the betting public is attracted to. This week, Steve offers his thoughts on a handful of games for Sunday's full NFL betting slate.
0:49 - Chargers vs GiantsÂ
3:03 - Commanders vs FalconsÂ
5:44 - Packers vs CowboysÂ
8:24 - Bengals vs Broncos
11:36 - Browns vs Lions
15:27 - Save BIG with Promo code: ACCESS30
Would you rather be on the side of the oddsmakers (the ones that work in the huge lavish casinos), or the NFL betting public? Each week, WagerTalk handicapper Steve Merril identifies a handful of plays that the betting public is attracted to. This week, Steve offers his thoughts on a handful of games for Sunday's full NFL betting slate.
0:49 - Chargers vs GiantsÂ
3:03 - Commanders vs FalconsÂ
5:44 - Packers vs CowboysÂ
8:24 - Bengals vs Broncos
11:36 - Browns vs Lions
15:27 - Save BIG with Promo code: ACCESS30
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Fading the Public has cashed each of the first three
weeks this season. We're now eleven to five. In this
video faiting the most public sides each week, I'm gonna
give you the foremost public plays in a bonus selection
for this week, four Sunday, September the twenty eighth. Fadom
or play them, We're gonna talk about the most public
sides deep dive in analysis coming up free right here,
right now is is Steve Merrill wager Talk dot com.
(00:21):
Right back here on wager Talk TV. And as I mentioned,
fad in the Public has cashed each of the first
three weeks, now eleven to five and one overall. Fading
the Public Sides and additional leans. I've got four public
plays for you this Sunday and Monday, and also an
additional lean. Let's start with the daytime games and what
is the most public play this week. You know, a
lot of times I'll say they're all kind of equal.
That's been the case the last couple of weeks, but
(00:42):
one game jumped out more public than all the others.
This Sunday at one o'clock Eastern, that's the LA Chargers
traveling cross country to take on the New York Giants,
and not a surprise here. The Chargers are off to
nice three and ozh start. G men, the Giants off
to an zero to three start, So two teams have
been heading the exact opposite directions. Currently this line sitting
around six and some spot six and a half in
(01:04):
others as we head into the weekend. Don't think we're
going to get to that key number of seven, but
I would wait. With the Giants, I think we'll get
at least six and a half if you can't already
find it now by kickoff on Sunday, as the Chargers
are the most public play this week.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
In Week four, off to.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
A perfect three to oh straight up an ATS start,
but all three have been divisional wins Kansas City and Brazil,
Monday night road game in Las Vegas, and then the
true home opener last week against Denver, a narrow twenty
three to twenty win. And now they're traveling cross country
early kickoff which is a ten am Eastern ten am
Pacific start of their body clocks, and playing a non
(01:41):
conference road game. Hey, we saw this situation last week
with the Green Bay Packers. I told you in this
video do not use the Packers in your survivor pools.
Do not use them in teasers. We had a betspent
on the Browns last week. It was a fate of
the Packers. This looks like another sandwich spot. Don't know
if we can trust the Giants though as the best,
but we'll find out. And you always look for a
(02:01):
catalyst with these ugly ducklings, and maybe we have it
this week. Rookie Jackson Dart getting the start for the Giants.
I like the fact they're at home and they're facing
a team in somewhat of a flat sandwich spot. And
I also like the fact that Dart looked good in
the preseason. He actually played extremely well for the Giants
this preseason. Hey, look, they can't go anywhere but up.
They've had one good offensive game and that was against
(02:23):
the Cowboys. How bad is that Cowboy defense? Giving up
thirty seven points over four under passing yards to the
Giants in Week two, because the Giants have scored only
six and nine points in their other two games against
the Commanders and Chiefs. Looks like a bad spot here
though for the Chargers. Once again, I'm not interested in
backing the g men normally, but here. Again, the Chargers
are a team that could be in a tremendous letdown spot.
(02:45):
If you're looking to fade the most public play this week,
then that is definitely the New York Giants here as
a six and a half point dog, and once again,
maybe we'll get seven, probably not by Sunday, but I
think those sixers will turn into six and a halfs
before it's all done. That game's at one o'clock eastern, right,
another game at one o'clock eastern and ding Ding Ray Flederlark.
We got a public underdog, but not my Washington Commanders
(03:06):
are getting some love this week, and they do qualify
as a public dog because currently that line is plus
two to two and a half. Now, some of it's
because of the injury situation. The Commanders might very well
be favored in this game if Jaden Daniels was healthy.
So I'm not going to call it a huge public dog.
I'd like to see public dogs at more than a
field goal. But they're still getting a lot of love
here and a lot of consensus that I look at
(03:26):
have people picking them straight up. So the Washington Commanders
are one of the more public plays this week, and
definitely the most public dog on the board at plus two,
and as I mentioned, Jaden Daniels is out. Marcus Mariotta
listed as named as the starter's Friday afternoon, not a surprise.
Daniels has the knee injury, and this is also a
situation with Mariotte is very capable of leading the team,
(03:48):
as he has done so with numerous NFL teams in
the past, and he's looked really good with his Commander's
offense the last couple of years.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Last year he had limited action, but he.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
Threw for three hundred and sixty four yards and four
touchdowns one thirty one rating. This year, he's had one
game under his belt two hundred and seven yards last
week against the Raiders, a one to nineteen rating, five touchdowns,
no picks. The last two years in limited action with
the Commanders, and of course, the last time he was
a full time starter was back in twenty twenty two
with the Falcons over twenty two hundred passing yards in
(04:16):
eighty eight QB rating and for his career now ninety
eight touchdowns, fifty five picks a ninety point four QB rating,
so he's been more than adequate and he's also mobile,
which is the key to Jaden Daniel's success and this
Commander offense because this year they're averaging almost six yards
per carry rushing the ball, but just over six yards
per pass. Falcons actually fit a pretty good spot here.
(04:38):
Off the shutout loss Aaron embarrassed last week and something
that always catches mind. We don't talk about this a lot,
but I always use filters, right. I'd love to fade
public dogs. That's one of my favorite filters using the
consensus data here, and that would obviously fit here, fading
the Washington Commanders. But something else is when a team
is public one week and then is a play against
team the very next week, that usually seems like an
extreme overreaction. And if your recall last week week, Atlanta
(05:00):
was one of the two additional public leans I gave
you here in the video, and as I said, they
got smacked outright by the Carolina Panthers and not even
close to being in the game thirty to nothing. Lots
of talks about benching Panics, bringing Kirk Cousins in there
not doing it, which makes me think they still see
something in the young quarterback. This looks like the spot
maybe to play real contrarier and take Atlanta. Laying the points.
(05:23):
Public is all over the dog here looks like a
good bounce back spot for the Falcons. So I would
fade the public here and fade not my Washington Commanders,
and they're truly not my Washington Commanders this week, because
I'd like Atlanta minus the two that's at one o'clock eastern.
Two more public plays, and they just happen to be
your Sunday and Monday night games, just the way it
worked out Sunday night, eight o'clock eastern, eight twenty eastern
(05:45):
to be exact. On NBC National TV, it is Sunday
Night Football. And I referenced how the Packers last week
were in a bad spot, they were one of the
most public plays. Well, the public's jumping right back on
them again this week, and it's hard to disagree. This
does look like a bounce back spot for Green after
the bad losses a road touchdown favorite, and keep in
mind they were up ten to nothing, controlled the majority
(06:06):
of that game against Cleveland last week, and I really
do think it was just a true flat spot after
scoring fifty four points in high profile wins against the
Lions and Commanders with this look ahead Sunday night game
on deck, and it's hard to trust Dallas in this spot.
This is a defense that's been horrendous all year.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Now.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
The offense has suffered a major blow with Ceedee Lamb
out for the foreseeable future with the injury, so their
weaker on offense, their defense has been terrible. In fact,
they haven't stopped anybody all season. The only time they've
stopped anybody is when the weather delay stopped the Philadelphia Eagles.
Neither offense did anything after that one hour delay, and
the Thursday night opener Cowboys were unable to stop Philly
before that gave up thirty seven points to the Giants.
(06:43):
As I just discussed, the Giants have scored six and
nine points total in their other two games. They scored
thirty seven and threw for over four hundred and twenty
yards against this Cowboy defense, and then last week they
made the Chicago Bears look pretty good as well, given
up thirty one points and just over three hundred and
eighty total yards. I don't trust this Dallas defense, so
it would be the Packers or passed for me, even
(07:04):
though Green Bay is one of the most public sides
this week, I don't disagree something else I will point
out though the look aheadline this summer was around two
to two and a half even a week ago, is
around four to four and a half. Now it's six
and a half based on last week's results. And oh,
by the way, Dallas was one of the most public
sides last week. That is one of those games that
made the video last week, and now the public is
fading them. As I mentioned with the Falcons, that's always
(07:26):
a red flag for me. So lots of things I
don't like about backing green Bay, but the situational set
up screams Packers. So let's just look at the team total.
Let's play the Packers over twenty seven and a half
team total. That way, if Dallas gets the cover, you
don't have to worry the game over, you know. Obviously,
if Dallas covers, are gonna probably have to score some
points because I don't think they can slow green Bay down.
So the over forty six and a half over forty
(07:48):
seven makes some sense as well. And this look aheadline
initial opener even was as high as forty eight and
a half in some spots a week ago. Now it's
forty six and a half forty seven, So I like
the game over, but I think the Packer team total
over twenty seven and a half makes a lot of
sense if you want to avoid being on the side itself,
as Green Bay is very public this week. All right,
your final game is that Monday night game with there's
(08:10):
actually two Monday Night games. It's the later one at
eight to fifteen Eastern. And by the way, I do
have a deep dive two for one special video for
both Monday Night games with free plays in both of
them Jets, Dolphins, Bengals Broncos. But I'm going to talk
about the late game here as well, because the Broncos
are one of the more public sides this week, laying
the seven and a half. And this is another game
in which the initial line this summer is around two
(08:31):
to two and a half. Now it's seven and a half,
and of course Joe Burrow is out for the Bengals.
That's why we've seen the big line adjustment. Jake Browning,
the third year quarterback from Washington University, is not the answer.
He's been very mediocre. But even when Burrow was in
the lineup for a game and a half this season,
they were barely averaging over five yards per pass. So
Cincinnati is struggling right now, and there's still two and
(08:53):
one straight up and against the spread. The Broncos are
the one and two straight up team, and that does
seem weird, but it also tells you that can overlook
this game. It's a Monday night game, thin air and altitude,
Broncos are passed for me. I don't like giving up
this much line valley at seven and a half, so
I think the Broncos on a teaser down to minus
one and a half actually might be the best option.
If you're watching this during the weekend here as most
(09:14):
of you are, you can tie that up with some
of the Sunday games, or if you're watching this later,
you could tie it up with one of the games
next week. But since this is the FAID the public
video for Sunday, I'm assuming most of you are still
watching before the games have kicked off. I do like
the Broncos minus one and a half as a six
point teaser this week. Could tie that up with some
other games this Sunday. And another thing about the Bengals,
They've got the young quarterback, hostile environment, thin air and
(09:35):
altitude road game, Monday Night. He's got no running game
to rely on. Bengals have rushed for fifty three yards
or less in each of their three games so far
this season. Broncos also last year since bo nixt joined
the team. Eight and oh straight up is a favorite
last year, and they beat the Titans this sweet year
in Week one, so they were nine and oh straight
up eight and one against the spread. They're only non
covers by half a point. They did lose as a
(09:57):
one point favorite at Indianapolis a point, so you could
say technically they're nine and one is a favorite, but
before that game nine to zero and they're only non
covers by half a point.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
There are other wins.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
Every win was by nine or more otherwise, including seven
of the eight last year by double digits. So Denver
is kind of a bully team and they're good as favorites.
They struggle against better teams, so I think they win
this one minus one and a half teaser makes a
lot of sense, But Broncos are passed for me. This's
another situation. I'm not looking to fade the public on
Monday night. There you go. Those are the foremost public
(10:29):
sides here for Week four. Once the most public play
of the week the LA Chargers minus the six and
a half. Also the public dog of the week the
Commanders plus two, and then the public is also on
both the Packers minus six and a half Sunday Night
and the Broncos minus seven and a half Monday Night. Hey,
I agree with some I disagree with others. What are
your thoughts on these four public plays? Comment below and
(10:49):
include some analysis. If you have time, we read the comments,
we reply back here on wager Talk TV. I'm gonna
give you one additional public lean in just a moment,
but I want to remind you my personal best bets
are on my page Steve Merrill, wager Talk dot com,
and you can also get a daily free play. My
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(11:10):
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out here. Let's give you one additional public lean. This
one wasn't quite as strong as the four official public plays,
(11:32):
but still getting some good public sentiment. The fifth most
public play this week would be the Detroit Lions minus ten.
That's an early game at one o'clock Eastern on Sunday afternoon.
And this is a situation a couple things. I think
the public likes the Lions after they beat the Ravens
blew out the Bears. People feel like the Packers are
for real. So the Detroit Lions, best team in the
(11:52):
NFC last year until they lost in the playoffs, is
getting some public love and also a little bit of
a play against against the Browns. Public fan of the
Browns last week come from behind when Green Bay.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Was in a bad spot. They're not a believer.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Cleveland just won and two and their one road game
this year was that blowout loss at Baltimore by twenty
four points. But the Browns have been a feisty dog
so far this season if you look at them overall.
They only lost by point to the Bengals, and I
know the Bengals haven't been good, but still gave up
only seventeen points and ten points in their other two
games this year, and their run defense has actually been
(12:23):
very strong overall this season. They've held two of their
three opponents of forty six rushing yards are less, they've
held all three of them to eighty yards or less rushing,
and if you look at their statistical makeup this year,
they're giving up just two point three yards per carry
and just five point seven yards per pass against teams
at average seven point one. They will be tested for
sure this week against the Detroit Lions, one of the
(12:44):
best pass attacks, especially on that indoor fast track. But
once again, Detroit's coming off two high profile wins. They
lost that to Visual Open to Green Bay, then they
blew out the Bears big road dog win on Monday
Night Football. On top of that against the Ravens now
they come home as a double digit non Conferend's favorite.
Could see a scenario here with Detroit wins the game
but doesn't cover. I think it's probably safe still for
(13:06):
your survivor pools. Buffalo minus fifteen is pretty much an
automatic survivor if you haven't used the bills yet, But
if you used them last Thursday night, as some of
you might have, Detroit minus ten or Texans minus seven
are probably the two other survivor picks.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
That makes sense.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
So I wanted to point out to you that the lines,
although not in the official public play, is an additional
public lean as the public is definitely lined up on
the Detroit side here on Sunday afternoon. All right, there
you go, the most public plays on the board, play
them or fadom.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
It's up to you.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and once again,
the public turning along fathom has been pretty good so
far this year, eleven and five against the spread. We
don't just automatically fadum. We pick our spots. We use
this as a filter, but in general fading the public
does win more times than not and usually get some
additional line value as well by fading the most public sides.
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Fading the Public has cashed each of the first three
weeks this season. We're now eleven to five. In this
video faiting the most public sides each week, I'm gonna
give you the foremost public plays in a bonus selection
for this week, four Sunday, September the twenty eighth. Fadom
or play them, We're gonna talk about the most public
sides deep dive in analysis coming up free right here,
right now is is Steve Merrill wager Talk dot com.
(00:21):
Right back here on wager Talk TV. And as I mentioned,
fad in the Public has cashed each of the first
three weeks, now eleven to five and one overall. Fading
the Public Sides and additional leans. I've got four public
plays for you this Sunday and Monday, and also an
additional lean. Let's start with the daytime games and what
is the most public play this week. You know, a
lot of times I'll say they're all kind of equal.
That's been the case the last couple of weeks, but
(00:42):
one game jumped out more public than all the others.
This Sunday at one o'clock Eastern, that's the LA Chargers
traveling cross country to take on the New York Giants,
and not a surprise here. The Chargers are off to
nice three and ozh start. G men, the Giants off
to an zero to three start, So two teams have
been heading the exact opposite directions. Currently this line sitting
around six and some spot six and a half in
(01:04):
others as we head into the weekend. Don't think we're
going to get to that key number of seven, but
I would wait. With the Giants, I think we'll get
at least six and a half if you can't already
find it now by kickoff on Sunday, as the Chargers
are the most public play this week.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
In Week four, off to.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
A perfect three to oh straight up an ATS start,
but all three have been divisional wins Kansas City and Brazil,
Monday night road game in Las Vegas, and then the
true home opener last week against Denver, a narrow twenty
three to twenty win. And now they're traveling cross country
early kickoff which is a ten am Eastern ten am
Pacific start of their body clocks, and playing a non
(01:41):
conference road game. Hey, we saw this situation last week
with the Green Bay Packers. I told you in this
video do not use the Packers in your survivor pools.
Do not use them in teasers. We had a betspent
on the Browns last week. It was a fate of
the Packers. This looks like another sandwich spot. Don't know
if we can trust the Giants though as the best,
but we'll find out. And you always look for a
(02:01):
catalyst with these ugly ducklings, and maybe we have it
this week. Rookie Jackson Dart getting the start for the Giants.
I like the fact they're at home and they're facing
a team in somewhat of a flat sandwich spot. And
I also like the fact that Dart looked good in
the preseason. He actually played extremely well for the Giants
this preseason. Hey, look, they can't go anywhere but up.
They've had one good offensive game and that was against
(02:23):
the Cowboys. How bad is that Cowboy defense? Giving up
thirty seven points over four under passing yards to the
Giants in Week two, because the Giants have scored only
six and nine points in their other two games against
the Commanders and Chiefs. Looks like a bad spot here
though for the Chargers. Once again, I'm not interested in
backing the g men normally, but here. Again, the Chargers
are a team that could be in a tremendous letdown spot.
(02:45):
If you're looking to fade the most public play this week,
then that is definitely the New York Giants here as
a six and a half point dog, and once again,
maybe we'll get seven, probably not by Sunday, but I
think those sixers will turn into six and a halfs
before it's all done. That game's at one o'clock eastern, right,
another game at one o'clock eastern and ding Ding Ray Flederlark.
We got a public underdog, but not my Washington Commanders
(03:06):
are getting some love this week, and they do qualify
as a public dog because currently that line is plus
two to two and a half. Now, some of it's
because of the injury situation. The Commanders might very well
be favored in this game if Jaden Daniels was healthy.
So I'm not going to call it a huge public dog.
I'd like to see public dogs at more than a
field goal. But they're still getting a lot of love
here and a lot of consensus that I look at
(03:26):
have people picking them straight up. So the Washington Commanders
are one of the more public plays this week, and
definitely the most public dog on the board at plus two,
and as I mentioned, Jaden Daniels is out. Marcus Mariotta
listed as named as the starter's Friday afternoon, not a surprise.
Daniels has the knee injury, and this is also a
situation with Mariotte is very capable of leading the team,
(03:48):
as he has done so with numerous NFL teams in
the past, and he's looked really good with his Commander's
offense the last couple of years.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Last year he had limited action, but he.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
Threw for three hundred and sixty four yards and four
touchdowns one thirty one rating. This year, he's had one
game under his belt two hundred and seven yards last
week against the Raiders, a one to nineteen rating, five touchdowns,
no picks. The last two years in limited action with
the Commanders, and of course, the last time he was
a full time starter was back in twenty twenty two
with the Falcons over twenty two hundred passing yards in
(04:16):
eighty eight QB rating and for his career now ninety
eight touchdowns, fifty five picks a ninety point four QB rating,
so he's been more than adequate and he's also mobile,
which is the key to Jaden Daniel's success and this
Commander offense because this year they're averaging almost six yards
per carry rushing the ball, but just over six yards
per pass. Falcons actually fit a pretty good spot here.
(04:38):
Off the shutout loss Aaron embarrassed last week and something
that always catches mind. We don't talk about this a lot,
but I always use filters, right. I'd love to fade
public dogs. That's one of my favorite filters using the
consensus data here, and that would obviously fit here, fading
the Washington Commanders. But something else is when a team
is public one week and then is a play against
team the very next week, that usually seems like an
extreme overreaction. And if your recall last week week, Atlanta
(05:00):
was one of the two additional public leans I gave
you here in the video, and as I said, they
got smacked outright by the Carolina Panthers and not even
close to being in the game thirty to nothing. Lots
of talks about benching Panics, bringing Kirk Cousins in there
not doing it, which makes me think they still see
something in the young quarterback. This looks like the spot
maybe to play real contrarier and take Atlanta. Laying the points.
(05:23):
Public is all over the dog here looks like a
good bounce back spot for the Falcons. So I would
fade the public here and fade not my Washington Commanders,
and they're truly not my Washington Commanders this week, because
I'd like Atlanta minus the two that's at one o'clock eastern.
Two more public plays, and they just happen to be
your Sunday and Monday night games, just the way it
worked out Sunday night, eight o'clock eastern, eight twenty eastern
(05:45):
to be exact. On NBC National TV, it is Sunday
Night Football. And I referenced how the Packers last week
were in a bad spot, they were one of the
most public plays. Well, the public's jumping right back on
them again this week, and it's hard to disagree. This
does look like a bounce back spot for Green after
the bad losses a road touchdown favorite, and keep in
mind they were up ten to nothing, controlled the majority
(06:06):
of that game against Cleveland last week, and I really
do think it was just a true flat spot after
scoring fifty four points in high profile wins against the
Lions and Commanders with this look ahead Sunday night game
on deck, and it's hard to trust Dallas in this spot.
This is a defense that's been horrendous all year.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Now.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
The offense has suffered a major blow with Ceedee Lamb
out for the foreseeable future with the injury, so their
weaker on offense, their defense has been terrible. In fact,
they haven't stopped anybody all season. The only time they've
stopped anybody is when the weather delay stopped the Philadelphia Eagles.
Neither offense did anything after that one hour delay, and
the Thursday night opener Cowboys were unable to stop Philly
before that gave up thirty seven points to the Giants.
(06:43):
As I just discussed, the Giants have scored six and
nine points total in their other two games. They scored
thirty seven and threw for over four hundred and twenty
yards against this Cowboy defense, and then last week they
made the Chicago Bears look pretty good as well, given
up thirty one points and just over three hundred and
eighty total yards. I don't trust this Dallas defense, so
it would be the Packers or passed for me, even
(07:04):
though Green Bay is one of the most public sides
this week, I don't disagree something else I will point
out though the look aheadline this summer was around two
to two and a half even a week ago, is
around four to four and a half. Now it's six
and a half based on last week's results. And oh,
by the way, Dallas was one of the most public
sides last week. That is one of those games that
made the video last week, and now the public is
fading them. As I mentioned with the Falcons, that's always
(07:26):
a red flag for me. So lots of things I
don't like about backing green Bay, but the situational set
up screams Packers. So let's just look at the team total.
Let's play the Packers over twenty seven and a half
team total. That way, if Dallas gets the cover, you
don't have to worry the game over, you know. Obviously,
if Dallas covers, are gonna probably have to score some
points because I don't think they can slow green Bay down.
So the over forty six and a half over forty
(07:48):
seven makes some sense as well. And this look aheadline
initial opener even was as high as forty eight and
a half in some spots a week ago. Now it's
forty six and a half forty seven, So I like
the game over, but I think the Packer team total
over twenty seven and a half makes a lot of
sense if you want to avoid being on the side itself,
as Green Bay is very public this week. All right,
your final game is that Monday night game with there's
(08:10):
actually two Monday Night games. It's the later one at
eight to fifteen Eastern. And by the way, I do
have a deep dive two for one special video for
both Monday Night games with free plays in both of
them Jets, Dolphins, Bengals Broncos. But I'm going to talk
about the late game here as well, because the Broncos
are one of the more public sides this week, laying
the seven and a half. And this is another game
in which the initial line this summer is around two
(08:31):
to two and a half. Now it's seven and a half,
and of course Joe Burrow is out for the Bengals.
That's why we've seen the big line adjustment. Jake Browning,
the third year quarterback from Washington University, is not the answer.
He's been very mediocre. But even when Burrow was in
the lineup for a game and a half this season,
they were barely averaging over five yards per pass. So
Cincinnati is struggling right now, and there's still two and
(08:53):
one straight up and against the spread. The Broncos are
the one and two straight up team, and that does
seem weird, but it also tells you that can overlook
this game. It's a Monday night game, thin air and altitude,
Broncos are passed for me. I don't like giving up
this much line valley at seven and a half, so
I think the Broncos on a teaser down to minus
one and a half actually might be the best option.
If you're watching this during the weekend here as most
(09:14):
of you are, you can tie that up with some
of the Sunday games, or if you're watching this later,
you could tie it up with one of the games
next week. But since this is the FAID the public
video for Sunday, I'm assuming most of you are still
watching before the games have kicked off. I do like
the Broncos minus one and a half as a six
point teaser this week. Could tie that up with some
other games this Sunday. And another thing about the Bengals,
They've got the young quarterback, hostile environment, thin air and
(09:35):
altitude road game, Monday Night. He's got no running game
to rely on. Bengals have rushed for fifty three yards
or less in each of their three games so far
this season. Broncos also last year since bo nixt joined
the team. Eight and oh straight up is a favorite
last year, and they beat the Titans this sweet year
in Week one, so they were nine and oh straight
up eight and one against the spread. They're only non
covers by half a point. They did lose as a
(09:57):
one point favorite at Indianapolis a point, so you could
say technically they're nine and one is a favorite, but
before that game nine to zero and they're only non
covers by half a point.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
There are other wins.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
Every win was by nine or more otherwise, including seven
of the eight last year by double digits. So Denver
is kind of a bully team and they're good as favorites.
They struggle against better teams, so I think they win
this one minus one and a half teaser makes a
lot of sense, But Broncos are passed for me. This's
another situation. I'm not looking to fade the public on
Monday night. There you go. Those are the foremost public
(10:29):
sides here for Week four. Once the most public play
of the week the LA Chargers minus the six and
a half. Also the public dog of the week the
Commanders plus two, and then the public is also on
both the Packers minus six and a half Sunday Night
and the Broncos minus seven and a half Monday Night. Hey,
I agree with some I disagree with others. What are
your thoughts on these four public plays? Comment below and
(10:49):
include some analysis. If you have time, we read the comments,
we reply back here on wager Talk TV. I'm gonna
give you one additional public lean in just a moment,
but I want to remind you my personal best bets
are on my page Steve Merrill, wager Talk dot com,
and you can also get a daily free play. My
last cut for my best bat card goes up free
for everyone, So check out Sunday's free play right now,
(11:10):
or if you're joining us earlier on Saturday, hey, check
out Saturday's free play. Daily free play every day on
my page right now, either baseball or football free play
on a daily basis, Steve Merrill, wager Talk dot com.
You can get there quicker, by the way with shortcut
wt dot buzz slash sm all right on the way
out here. Let's give you one additional public lean. This
one wasn't quite as strong as the four official public plays,
(11:32):
but still getting some good public sentiment. The fifth most
public play this week would be the Detroit Lions minus ten.
That's an early game at one o'clock Eastern on Sunday afternoon.
And this is a situation a couple things. I think
the public likes the Lions after they beat the Ravens
blew out the Bears. People feel like the Packers are
for real. So the Detroit Lions, best team in the
(11:52):
NFC last year until they lost in the playoffs, is
getting some public love and also a little bit of
a play against against the Browns. Public fan of the
Browns last week come from behind when Green Bay.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Was in a bad spot. They're not a believer.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Cleveland just won and two and their one road game
this year was that blowout loss at Baltimore by twenty
four points. But the Browns have been a feisty dog
so far this season if you look at them overall.
They only lost by point to the Bengals, and I
know the Bengals haven't been good, but still gave up
only seventeen points and ten points in their other two
games this year, and their run defense has actually been
(12:23):
very strong overall this season. They've held two of their
three opponents of forty six rushing yards are less, they've
held all three of them to eighty yards or less rushing,
and if you look at their statistical makeup this year,
they're giving up just two point three yards per carry
and just five point seven yards per pass against teams
at average seven point one. They will be tested for
sure this week against the Detroit Lions, one of the
(12:44):
best pass attacks, especially on that indoor fast track. But
once again, Detroit's coming off two high profile wins. They
lost that to Visual Open to Green Bay, then they
blew out the Bears big road dog win on Monday
Night Football. On top of that against the Ravens now
they come home as a double digit non Conferend's favorite.
Could see a scenario here with Detroit wins the game
but doesn't cover. I think it's probably safe still for
(13:06):
your survivor pools. Buffalo minus fifteen is pretty much an
automatic survivor if you haven't used the bills yet, But
if you used them last Thursday night, as some of
you might have, Detroit minus ten or Texans minus seven
are probably the two other survivor picks.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
That makes sense.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
So I wanted to point out to you that the lines,
although not in the official public play, is an additional
public lean as the public is definitely lined up on
the Detroit side here on Sunday afternoon. All right, there
you go, the most public plays on the board, play
them or fadom.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
It's up to you.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and once again,
the public turning along fathom has been pretty good so
far this year, eleven and five against the spread. We
don't just automatically fadum. We pick our spots. We use
this as a filter, but in general fading the public
does win more times than not and usually get some
additional line value as well by fading the most public sides.
If you're finding this video useful, thumbs up like that's
(13:53):
all I ask. Click that thumbs up like takes two seconds,
and I will keep doing this each and every week
for you, And don't forget. If you haven't subscribed to
wager Talk TV, what are you waiting for? Over two
hundred and twenty thousand subscribers can't be wrong? Click it
for free and click that bell for an instant alert
so you never miss out when these free videos are
posted it. I do this fade the public every week,
but I also do standalone solo videos for the Sunday
(14:15):
Monday night games Thursday Night Prime game undefeated this season
we cashed again this week. We've won every Thursday free
play and last year we hit over seventy percent on
those Thursday Night Prime video games. I usually get those
up Monday or Tuesday early in the week for you,
so when you subscribe, click the bell for an instant
alert so you never miss free play videos. Tons in
college football as well this week, and also baseball and
(14:36):
basketball right around the corner. Baseball playoffs start this coming
week on Tuesday. Never miss out here on wager Talk
TV when you subscribe and click the bell. And finally,
if you want my official best bets for this Sunday
Pro football, check them out right now on my page
Steve Merrill wager talk dot com. As I mentioned earlier,
get there quicker with shortcut WT dot Buzz slash sm
and also get a daily free play while you're there.
(14:59):
The process it's quite simple. If I'm using the game,
if it's a personal best bet, I send it all
my clients. I've done it for over twenty nine years
since I started back at August of nineteen ninety six.
It's my thirtieth football season as a full time professional handicapper.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
If I'm using a.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
Personal best bet, all my subscribers get it, I send
it to all of them instantly. That last cut from
the best bet card is still a really strong opinion.
I post it for free every day, So check out
the daily free play, check out the strong Sunday NFL
best Bets, and while you're there, check out a special
promo code for this week. Access thirty gets you the
next any all sport all Access pass. It can be
(15:32):
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Speaker 2 (15:38):
Access three zero.
Speaker 1 (15:41):
Access thirty got the full details written up on my
page right now so you don't have to memorize it.
But any all sport all Access pass which includes baseball,
by the way, baseball, college football, Pro football, basketball right
around the corner. If you do a month or one year,
you're gonna get basketball, which is about to start. If
you want a one day package, it's thirty nine. Normally
thirty percent discount gets it down to twenty seven, and
one NFL Best bets for Sunday is twenty five. You
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get everything for twenty seven with that thirty percent discount.
Or how about a three day package get it from
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Steve Merrill, wager talk dot com and hey get there
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