Full Court Press | Can't-Miss College Hoops Value Plays for Tonight's Betting Card! | 11/26/25

Welcome to Full Court Press — your go-to college basketball betting show for game-day odds, expert picks, and matchup analysis across the NCAA slate. Each episode dives deep into spreads, totals, team props, and advanced stats to help you stay sharp all season long.

00:00 Intro
02:30 Iowa State/Syracuse
11:42 Gonzaga/Michigan
17:56 Columbia/Fairfield
22:50 Belmont/Toledo
28:00 San Jose State/Loyola Chi
33:56 New Hampshire-Brown
38:13 FDU/Army (Trigg Parlay Leg)
42:42 App State/Mercer
46:13 Kansas/Tennessew
55:17 UC San Diego/Towson
1:00:30 Auburn/St John’s
1:03:00 Parlay

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:04):
All right, welcome in. It is Wednesday. It's day three
of Feast week. Two man show again today. Brian Power
is back. Vina will be back later in the week,
I think. And I gotta say, when you're betting these
it's feast week. If you're watching, when you're betting them,
it can be feast or famine week. That's what's happened
to me so far. I had a five and one

(00:24):
day on Monday and followed it up with a one
in five Tuesday.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
Brian.

Speaker 1 (00:29):
For my mental health, it would have been just better
to go three and three both days. But here we are,
these swings of like volume betting during the college basketball
season on display for me this week. How how is
the Did you end up at the Zoo at any
point in time the last couple of days.

Speaker 3 (00:48):
Yeah, I did end up at the Zoom Monday, and
I'll tell you what I felt like. I was at
the Zoo on Monday both and literally thanks for, by
the way, carrying the load for the show yesterday.

Speaker 4 (00:58):
I need you know.

Speaker 3 (00:59):
I was travel guys, full disclosure on Tuesday, back from Cincinnati.
I'm back home, as you can see, no longer in
the basement like I was on Monday, very glad to
be back home.

Speaker 4 (01:10):
I'll be blunt with you. I wasn't very good on
Monday's show. I thought, you know, I spoke well.

Speaker 3 (01:16):
I gave a lot of information, but I think as
far as my opinions on a lot of those games,
I didn't say a lot of correct things on Monday.

Speaker 4 (01:24):
So I apologize for that.

Speaker 3 (01:26):
Hopefully we after a day to dust myself off and collect,
I'm a little more correct here today.

Speaker 4 (01:34):
I was glad to see you did well on Monday
at least.

Speaker 3 (01:37):
But yeah, this is a crazy week with all these
teams playing three games and three days, teams not knowing
who they're even going to play today. I mean, this
Iowa State Syracuse game is insane, Trigg in that they
have what the.

Speaker 4 (01:54):
Game tips off at one o'clock? Correct? Where are am
I at here on my sheet? It tips off at
one o'clock.

Speaker 3 (02:00):
They have fifteen hours of lead time to know what
the matchup was there, I believe I don't think they
learned till shortly after ten am.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
Yeah, it is uh, well, I mean listen, let's uh
you know, we were going to talk in Zag and Michigan,
but since you've brought it up.

Speaker 2 (02:16):
Let's just get the ball.

Speaker 4 (02:17):
Now, let's talk about that game.

Speaker 2 (02:19):
Oh okay, let's know, let's just talk Iowa State Syracuse.

Speaker 1 (02:22):
And I think it's kind of illustrates the point that
we'll probably make with some with some of the bigger games.
It's like, from a handicapping perspective, you're in such uncharted
like territory with some of these third, third game in
three day type scenarios right where it's like when you
look at the college basketball season, like in really this

(02:43):
only happens during conference tournament play. There's no other time,
Like every once in a while you'll play back to
back in the NCAA tournament, you'll play you know, it's
not uncommon to play like a Saturday, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (02:55):
Twice in three days. Some leagues play like that.

Speaker 1 (02:58):
But three games and three days really only happens now
or conference tournament. And now you talk about the wrinkle
of the players era, like having really not knowing your
opponent potentially until later that that night. I mean, it's
very conference tournament esque, except usually in the conference tournament
you at least you know by that point you know

(03:20):
the game is at night. It's not like first thing
in the morning. Which is I think out there there
because there are a couple hours behind us, so this
is going to be an early tip local time, and
both players, both teams are probably without what they are
without their best players. So, yeah, how do you make
sense of Iowa State Syracuse? I'll go to you and
then I've got some thoughts. But I'm curious to see

(03:41):
how you see this one.

Speaker 3 (03:42):
Yeah, well, it's a it's an interesting matchup. Look, I
know that on social media over the last forty eight
hours in the college basketball world, there's been so much handwringing,
so much talk about just the nature of this tournament. Correct,
And that's not for you and I to decide like that, right,
I mean, look, there's games we're gonna bet out of regard. Okay,
I think there's you know, it's kind of a soulless event.

Speaker 4 (04:03):
I think is kind of a consensus.

Speaker 3 (04:05):
But hey, we're getting some good matchups at least. I
think what's interesting about this game trig between Syracuse and
Iowa State. It's not just that these teams have such
little lead time. You brought up how in conference tournaments,
you know, the way the brackets are done in conference tournaments.
You know, let's say it's the quarter five like we're
talking to quarterfinals to semi finals situation. Okay, in a

(04:27):
twenty four hour span of the conference, the two teams
that win the second, the third, and fourth quarter final
will then play the second semi final, and you have
at least have an idea who you're gonna play, right
because you know the two teams in the opposite part
of the bracket, and there's twenty four hours at least guaranty.
This is I don't know if I've ever seen anything

(04:48):
like this where it's like you're playing tomorrow fifteen hours
from now, and you don't know against two and it's
gonna be against you know, a decent team.

Speaker 4 (04:56):
So it's crazy. Oh what else is crazy?

Speaker 3 (04:59):
Iowa State is the one two and oh team in
this the one team that's gone too and oh in
this event, I should say that will not be get
to that will not get to compete for the extra
nil money, which is obviously the draw for most of
these teams. I know Otzenberger saying, oh, this was more
about character building. That's what you say when you missed
out on the nil money. But I think had the
bracket this was more and he didn't want to run up.

(05:22):
To be fair, he they cost themselves by not running
up the score last night. So literally that's and Kansas
dunked it late to get into that third place game.
So we're we're talking a lot of logistics here about
the matchup. What you guys need to know Iowa States
two and oh in this event, Syracuse zero to two.

(05:45):
They've played Houston and Kansas and they competed hard. Why
did they lose those games?

Speaker 4 (05:51):
Trigg? I know, you know why. Let's just make sure
everyone else knows why.

Speaker 3 (05:55):
This is a team that went twelve of twenty nine
from the free throw line against Houston. I know a
lot of people like bang their head against the wall
all this free throw You can't go twelve of twenty nine,
you know sometimes, you know, I think the free throw
shooting people make too much that the twelve of twenty
nine from the charity stripe is absolutely abhorrent. And then

(06:17):
they're thirteen of twenty three against Kansas. So that's that's
twenty five of fifty two on free throws.

Speaker 2 (06:26):
Not good.

Speaker 4 (06:28):
And it may just be a thing.

Speaker 3 (06:29):
It may just be a thing, you know, with that,
I mean, some you know, there are certain teams that
just suck from the free throw line, so that that's
a problem.

Speaker 4 (06:36):
I don't know, that's a lot. We've said a lot.

Speaker 3 (06:39):
Here for a game that's really really hard to bet, Like,
I mean, there's no prep time and it's early in
the year.

Speaker 4 (06:47):
It's not like you got a lot of tape on
these teams either.

Speaker 2 (06:50):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (06:50):
So just and also just to to your point about
the conference tournaments and stuff like that, you've played those
teams during the regular season in most cases, so it's yeah,
you've probably already prepped at once for the team you're
gonna play in a conference tournament, whereas like having really
not no idea who your opponent's gonna be because it's
it's based on you know, results from a couple of

(07:11):
days and then they and then it's based on whoever
they they hand you because there's no bracket.

Speaker 2 (07:16):
Yeah, it's gonna make it. But the thing is, and this.

Speaker 1 (07:18):
Is where I'll tie it back into what I think
is maybe something actionable in this one. Uh, it's it's
the same for both teams. I saw someone in the
chat say, well, coaching is gonna really matter. Yeah, Iowa
State's got a pretty big coaching edge Red Auxury's are
one of the worst in coaches in the in the land.
I but and this goes back to something I said

(07:38):
on Monday, I don't mind that as much when you're
a ten point dog. And so now I pulled up
a comment Doug m I would stay on Creighton inside
the paint. They will have a much tougher time for
Syracuse interior defense. That's a very good point. Syracuse's interior
defenses looked great. Also, you know, yesterday Brian, I knew

(07:59):
I was I knew I was doomed to have a
bad day when I had Creighton plus nine and a
half and it went off four and a half and
I had no chance, Like I had, I had a
good and I had some good insight into Lipsey for
Iowa State not playing uh. I think I put that
in as a four percent play at about midnight or

(08:21):
like maybe like right around then over I was still
up watching Maryland.

Speaker 2 (08:26):
It was like one in the morning.

Speaker 1 (08:28):
That went off four and a half. So I'm sitting
there with like a huge CLV and it never mattered.
And so that kind of set the tone for me
giving back my Monday yesterday. The reason I bring that
up here is like I do think so without Lipsey,
even though it didn't matter against Creighton, that backcourt is
very young without him, And I have to say I've
been very impressed with Syracuse's defense, and so maybe it

(08:52):
matters a little bit here if CS can force a
couple turnovers, if the you know, Kyle on the interior
for Syracuse is is the guy that came over from
Ucla has been fantastic. So I do have a lean
towards Syracuse at ten, but man, it's it's tough because
it goes both ways. Donnie Freeman didn't play in this tournament,
and then you just have to wonder how much do

(09:13):
they have left in the tank the all in effort
against Houston, putting the effort in to come back against Kansas,
and then like running out of gas, how much how
much do they have in the tank for this early tip.
I think that's what's gonna ultimately keep me off of
this game.

Speaker 3 (09:31):
And I think it's fair. Is the Syracuse two point
defense so far as that a mirage? Is that something
we expect? It's obviously, you know, we're early in the season.
A lot of these numbers are small samplesizes.

Speaker 4 (09:45):
You know, some of these teams have played bat we copones.

Speaker 3 (09:48):
I think that's why I'm not convinced Syracuse is gonna
be a great two point defense of the rest of
the year. I will also Creighton, my god, my apologies,
I know had it it was injury related. Crighton's in
some trouble this year, that this is the worst Creighton
team in years.

Speaker 1 (10:07):
Yeah, I would agree with that they had. I mean,
just to they had nothing that that that team is.
I did downgrade them significantly after that performance yesterday and
then just to you know, so, I guess this will
will end up being our feature game today. Since we
got into it, we might as well put a bow
on it. You talked about Syracuse's interior defense. I do

(10:29):
think it's probably going to be considerably better than last year,
just because you take Eddie Lampkin off the floor, who
was not a good defensive player at all, and you
put William Kyle and who is an absolute beast on
the defensive end. But the other thing is they're playing
entirely manned man now. So that was one thing that
Autrey talked about when he took the Syracuse job was

(10:49):
he wanted to phase out the zone.

Speaker 2 (10:52):
He wanted to get away from the two three zone.

Speaker 1 (10:54):
Now, in the first year he tried to do that
and the defense was atrocious. It was an so we
had to go back to it a little bit last year.
I just don't think he had the personnel. This year,
it looks like he's got the personnel to play man
and man, and so I do think the Q stepense
might be like a lot better than than people think. Again,

(11:15):
I'll lean towards Syracuse at ten. I just saw a
ten and a half pop up at ben mgm Uh.
But man, Iowa State, like it looked really good yesterday
without Lipsey, could it happen again today?

Speaker 2 (11:30):
That's probably why I won't ct the game.

Speaker 3 (11:32):
One point to points for possession for Iowa State yesterday,
So that that's that's very good.

Speaker 1 (11:38):
I'm gonna go to you for what is was going
to be our feature game. I suppose we'll make it
a little double feature and then we'll start rattling off
chat questions. But from a from just a sheer like
game standpoint, Gonzaga Michigan might be, I mean might be
not only the best game today, uh, this could be
the game of the non conference. I mean, so far

(11:59):
like this might be the best matchup of the season
to this point. I was surprised, Brian when my numbers
came out Michigan ever so slightly favored in this game.
I made them minus one. Do you agree or disagree?
And how are you looking at this game?

Speaker 3 (12:17):
I agree with the mart spoiler alert. I agree with
where the market is at right now pretty much. Let's
go through it here. Earlier this week, we talked about
point differential being a key factor in determining the winner
for this somewhat soulless Players.

Speaker 4 (12:33):
Era event out in Vegas.

Speaker 3 (12:34):
Well treg Needless to say, Michigan and Gonzaga have definitely
produced some impressive point differentials to qualify for tonight's championship game.
For those just kind of keeping up here, Michigan's beat
in San Diego State in Auburn by combined seventy points.
Gonzaga beats Alabama and Maryland by a combined forty nine.
Power ratings wise, I've moved Michigan up a couple obviously,

(12:55):
you have to have a few spots after the last
two days. Gonzaga, meanwhile, they're number one in my power ranks.
I moved him just past Duke, I'm pretty much in line,
like I said, with where the market currently is at Idea.
I made the Zags minus two, so we're off a
little bit. You and I now that doesn't mean Michigan
can't win here. I'm not gonna say that the Wolverines.
You're talking about a team with four double digit scorers

(13:17):
for the season. Six guys were double figures last night.
This team seems confident. They're talking about how they feel
they have the best front court of the country. Defensively, though,
trig is where Michigan has really shined this for number
one in the justin efficiency over Ken Bob. On that
end of the floor, they're holding opponents to just thirty
four point five percent shooting over all, number two nationally

(13:39):
in two point field goal percentage allowed. Now, of course,
it remains to be seen if they can hold this
Gonzaga team in check. Zags have already exceeded ninety five
times this year. Last night they hit one hundred for
the second time. Of course, Michigan has now scored one
hundred plus twice as well, including last night. I do
think Gonzaga has the length to combat the Michigan front court.

(13:59):
I mentioned Mischaigans two point defense.

Speaker 4 (14:01):
A minute ago.

Speaker 3 (14:02):
Well, Gonzaga, they're shooting sixty two percent on two point attempts,
so that's going to be a key part of this game.
But I think the real key trig will be Gonzaga's
three point shooting. They've not been great from distance so far,
below thirty five percent from behind the arc. For them
to win this game, I think Gonzaga needs to hit threes.

(14:24):
I have said a lot here again for a game
where I'm not yet ready ready to commit to a
side or total, but I will say one sixty, which
was where the total opened seem low. For a game
where you got two teams that have both scored ninety
four each of the last two days, both hit one

(14:45):
hundred last night, I think the question we need to ask,
and this goes back to the discussion about the entire
players you're a event, what might these teams have left
in the tank playing a third game in three days,
especially because the third game in three day against high
level competition.

Speaker 1 (15:03):
Yeah, I mean, if you're gonna go at it from
that angle, I think you give the edge there to
Michigan ever so slightly, because I mean that was the
Gonzagabama game was a war.

Speaker 2 (15:14):
It's just Gonzaga landed that the knockout blow at the end.

Speaker 1 (15:18):
Uh, Michigan won by forty against San Diego State, which
is is not San Diego State right now, is not
a grueling opponent like there.

Speaker 2 (15:27):
That would almost be from like a pace standpoint.

Speaker 1 (15:29):
And then the fact that you're up forty probably had
like took very little out of Michigan. And then you know,
of course last night they end up up big by
by the half. So it's like, you know, now I
understand that Gonzaga won big last night as well, but
still like, I again, that's so difficult for me to

(15:50):
look at that and say, like, let let me bet,
Like it's not enough for me to like want to
bet on it. The other thing, I'll say, just personally,
I'm getting away for after yesterday, Like, so I got
burned a little bit yesterday. I'm like, Okay, well I
make this team minus one. They're now a two and

(16:10):
a half point underdog, and I bet a couple of
those yesterday Bradley, South Dakota State, Utah Tech right where
I was like, well they're plus one and a half
plus two, I make them like minus three, and I
think I'm gonna I think for me, especially maybe I'm
just a little bit gun shy after what happened yesterday.

Speaker 2 (16:31):
But like I see Gonzaga going too two and a
half places right now.

Speaker 1 (16:37):
If I was like red Hot, I might feel inclined
to be like, well, I make Michigan a slight favorite,
let me grab that possession with the Wolverines.

Speaker 2 (16:44):
I'm less inclined to do it right now.

Speaker 1 (16:46):
And again, we're really splitting hairs, in my opinion, trying
to like figure out which of these two very very
elite teams is gonna like push the right buttons to
win this game. So when there's so many other games
on the menu, like this is just not one that
I put a ton of time into like trying to

(17:08):
find the winner, because I think I'm just I think
you can make a case for both sides at this point.
There's a handicap for Michigan and there's a handicap for Gonzaga. Obviously,
whoever executes better is gonna win. I don't know that.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
Anyone truly knows. Truly feels like you're flipping a coin.

Speaker 3 (17:24):
Yeah, I mean, it's a game that I just obviously
kind of want to watch and just enjoy. Hope it's
a good game, you know. I mean there's also a
situation that if one team is just having a bad night,
it might get away from them too. You know what
I'm saying. It's not the end of the world, you know,
I mean, Michigan Gonzag. I mean, it's not the end
of the world if you lose this game here the
night before Thanksgiving. It just is Although I guess there's

(17:46):
a lot of nil money that says otherwise. But if
the teams are into that, Michigan's not hurting for an
ile money though.

Speaker 1 (17:55):
All right, comments, light up the chat. We've got over
forty minutes left. And honestly, these are the types of
games today that I'm going to have more opinions on, Like,
you know, just just the games that it's a it's
a camp, it's a it's a normal game. Okay, Columbia
going to Fairfield, normal non conference game. It's not the
third game in three days. It's not like some crazy

(18:17):
like MTE in the cancun It's just a normal campus game.
I was hoping to talk Rob Veno into going into
this games and I just just because I want him
to see Mahoney Arena up close and personal. Phenomenal building
on the campus of Fairfield. I think it's three years
old at this point. I got to go to one
of the first games there. Tremendous facility.

Speaker 4 (18:39):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (18:39):
They will host Columbia tonight, Garth, first of all, appreciate
the donation.

Speaker 4 (18:43):
Thank you Garth, and.

Speaker 1 (18:45):
Take you Garth and we'll get to your game here.
So Columbia Fairfield. I watched Fairfield play Lemoyne, not in person.
I was I was gonna try to swing by that
game this weekend. Did not get a chance to get
over there, but Fairfield ran them out of.

Speaker 2 (19:00):
Out of their own gym. It was.

Speaker 1 (19:01):
It was a pretty solid performance start to finish for Fairfield.
I think this is a much tougher task now. To
specifically talk to your question. You said your numbers are
lining up to take Columbia minus two and a half tonight.
My number is pretty much right on that. I've got
Columbia minus two and a half in this game. And

(19:23):
I think had I not watched what Fairfield's last couple
of games, I might have been like more on in
step with you saying, yeah, like Columbia less than a
possession is just the right side from like where I
had these teams rated and sort of like what I've
seen to this point. But for me, Fairfields looked impressive

(19:45):
in their last couple of games, and I'm less inclined
to fade them at home, where I think they're gonna
kind of get an okay turnout of like locals tonight,
Like I feel like that building is getting a good
local turnout right now.

Speaker 2 (19:59):
So so I'm right on the number. I wish I
had something.

Speaker 1 (20:04):
More to lean you one way or the other, but
I feel like if I feel like Fairfield might be
a little bit better than the market, and I don't
want to go against them, So good luck if you
go with Columbia. I don't think I'll be involved in
this game, because I really do think Fairfield might be
just a touch better than they're getting credit for at
the moment. BP, what anything for you on that game?

(20:24):
Do you make a number for those games? Do you
have just like some sort of reference point for him?

Speaker 3 (20:29):
So I just double checked, and I'm pretty much right
on Margaret. I'll say that the one thing that sticks out,
or there's a couple of things that stick out here
when you look at this Matcham Columbia is having a
tough time taking my trepidation with betting Columbia in this game.
They're not taking care of the basketball very well. Fairfield
they do take care of the basketball. When you look

(20:51):
at the Fairfield side, they have it shot well from three.
I talk about this all the time. Okay, well, well
you know, does this number improve? You know you kind
of look, I mean it's early, obviously. I think when
you see really bad three point shooting from a team,
generally speaking, that's probably gonna regress a little bit to
the meme. When you see extraordinary three point shooting early

(21:13):
in there, that's going to you know, regress to the
mean the other way. So in Fairfield three point shooting
hasn't been that good. So I don't know, I'm not
gonna bet this one because I do have some trepidation
a about the Columbia turnovers and be if Fairfield knocks
down their threes here and they are in their home gym,
then I don't know. I think Fairfield might actually be

(21:35):
live to possibly pull the outright up, so it will
be a minor upset obviously.

Speaker 1 (21:40):
Yeah, And one more thing I'll throw out, like Fairfield's
four and two. Their two losses are at Penn State
at Seaton Hall. Both games they played very very good
for at least a half. I think they led Penn
State by like eight like like in the second half
of that game, ended up losing. I know that one
of the half of that Seaton Hall game was very

(22:00):
impressive for Fairfield. And they're four and zero against teams
just like Columbia, So that's the other thing, Like they're
beating teams in this what I'll call for lack of
a better term, weight class NJIT.

Speaker 2 (22:12):
They won by twenty one.

Speaker 1 (22:13):
They knocked off Stonehill by two, knocked off Loyola Maryland
by three, and then they beat Lamboyne. Those are all
kind of teams that are in the same like weight
class as Columbia, so they've done well against this type
of opposition.

Speaker 2 (22:27):
I'm kind of with you, Brian.

Speaker 1 (22:28):
I almost think I'd rather take the bucket at home
with Fairfield take the two and a half. But again,
I can't say that would be nearly enough conviction to
tell you to not that Columbia. I'm just saying, like
at two and a half, or even if it made
it to three, I would lean with the Stags here
in their home gym. Okay, let's move on. I knew
people were gonna ask about the early games. I know

(22:50):
Brian and I off air were like, man, well we've
got a lot of opinions on the early games today,
so that, I guess is good for the live viewers,
bad for the people that are gonna watch this show later.
But hey, it's it's feast week. They're gonna throw all
these games at us. Tipping off eleven twelve, one o'clock.
Gotta be watching live. Jason Jones is watching live. Appreciate you, Jason.

Speaker 4 (23:11):
Thank you to everyone watching live, best the way to
do it.

Speaker 2 (23:13):
You to everyone watching live. Yep, Happy Thanksgiving.

Speaker 1 (23:18):
A couple of people said that you hope everyone's getting
geared up for a great, safe, enjoyable holiday weekend.

Speaker 2 (23:25):
And Toledo is playing today.

Speaker 1 (23:27):
I bet them pretty much every game that they've played
since Brian Power and I got to go to Savage
Arena on opening.

Speaker 2 (23:34):
Week end of the season.

Speaker 1 (23:36):
I haven't bet them yet today, and I'm gonna kind
of explain why I don't think I will bet this game.
So I'll start this one off and then I'll let
you fill in the blanks here. So I was texting
with our third co host, Rob Vino, who is stuck
with family doing family things right now and traveling, which
is why he's not on the show today. But Toledo
plays Belmont in an MTE, and so Rob is our

(23:59):
sort of resident Belmont Bruins expert. He had a one
of his kids went there, and so I as soon
as I saw Toledo Belmont, I said, well, it got
a text job and talked to him about this game, Brian.

Speaker 2 (24:12):
When we went to.

Speaker 1 (24:13):
The game, I kind of made the I made the
decision that like when Toledo sees zone, yeah, I'm gonna
look to fade them. When they get a matchup where
they're seeing some Manda man, I'm gonna look to back them.
Belmont plays almost exclusively Manda man. But I think this
number is much lower than I expected it to be.

(24:34):
So that's what put me off of betting this game.
I make Belmont like I have the number here somewhere.
I think I was way off market on my number.
I think I was Belmont like minus eight and a
half or nine on a neutral against Toledo, because again,
my general thing with Toledo is I think that this
is probably one of the lesser teams, and you can
speak to that just being a MAC guy. I think

(24:56):
this is one of Toledo's lesser teams in recent years,
but Belmont's going to almost exclusively man them, and this
is like one of those ones where okay, mte fort Myers, Florida.
I think it might be a favorable matchup for Toledo,
but that number is way lower than anything I would
consider betting Toledo at. So that kind of took me

(25:16):
out of this game. Tell me if you've got anything
to add Toledo Belmont.

Speaker 2 (25:21):
Not really.

Speaker 3 (25:21):
I'm actually right on market where it's at. So I
was kind of cool. I just scratched this game off.
I knew I was interested to hear because I know
you're very focused in on this Toledo team and you know.

Speaker 4 (25:33):
The opposing defensive matchups.

Speaker 3 (25:34):
I was interested what you would have to say there,
But no, this isn't I'll be pretty blunt, I don't
have anything on this game.

Speaker 2 (25:40):
Where do you have Toledo though? In general?

Speaker 1 (25:42):
Like are you do? You have them further down than
you have had in recent years. I think this is
the lowest I've had Toledo rated in a long.

Speaker 3 (25:48):
Time, all right, So I mean relative to the MAC.
Let's take a look at the MAC here where like
I mean, they're still I mean coming into the year.
I mean, you know, because they finished fifthlast year if
memory serves me correct, I mean, Acron is clearly by
the way, I can't believe Akron didn't win.

Speaker 4 (26:05):
That game on mon Vegas Yale. But uh so Toledo.

Speaker 3 (26:09):
I've got Toledo fifth in the MAC right now, behind
BG Miami, Ohio, Kent and then obviously Akron would be
by far the number one team right now in the conference.

Speaker 1 (26:22):
Yeah, I think I have them like six or seven.
I haven't updaten just my specific MAC raatings.

Speaker 3 (26:27):
And the issue with Toledo continues to be the defensive
side of the defensive and the floor. It's been a
problem now for several years, and they're not getting better.
I mean, Ken Palm's got him down right around number
three hundred in adjusted fisher that's oral yep.

Speaker 2 (26:44):
Yeah, And and uh this chat this comment.

Speaker 1 (26:48):
In the chat he says Bellmont's to play well that
your that would be what you would be betting on.
I mean, Toledo's going to have a hard time getting stops.
In my opinion, against Bellmont, this is still a very
equality offensive team that I think we'll be able to
exploit those weaknesses that you just pointed out. So not
sure I have any interest in getting involved with a
total that's like one sixties in this game. But if

(27:11):
you think Belmont's gonna going to execute their offense the
way that they are capable of, then I think you've
got to let I think you have to like the
Belmont side makes it a tricky handicap.

Speaker 3 (27:22):
Go ahead team shooting sixty percent inside the arc against
Toledo this year, that's one of the worst percentages allow.

Speaker 4 (27:28):
The entire country.

Speaker 1 (27:30):
Yeah, and Bellmont runs good offense, They'll get to the rim,
they'll get in the paint, and they'll probably score.

Speaker 2 (27:36):
So again, I just I wish they play.

Speaker 1 (27:39):
I wish it was a little but I guess I
guess maybe the handicap for me would would lend itself
to the over because I think Toledo functions better offensively
against Man. So maybe that's a maybe that's high for
a reason. Maybe that total is high for a reason.

Speaker 4 (27:53):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (27:54):
Uh, you want to mention Loyal are good friends at
Loyal the Chicago real quick.

Speaker 2 (27:58):
Yeah, go out, I saw was there.

Speaker 3 (28:00):
They didn't cover again yesterday. Now I'll say we're getting
to the point where everybody's you know the books, I
mean people, it was a scramble to downgrade this team
as much as possible.

Speaker 4 (28:12):
I mean, you're zero to seven against the number.

Speaker 3 (28:14):
I'm finally at the point now where there's not a
ton of value fading them this afternoon against San Jose State.

Speaker 2 (28:21):
Although.

Speaker 3 (28:23):
They just Loyal to Chicago just moved to a favorite
at DraftKings, and I actually don't agree with that. I
still think they should be the underdog here, A slight
underdog at the opener when it was one night when
Loyal in Chicago is plus one and a half, I
didn't see any value. But if people keep just doing it,
and look, I'm as guilty of doing this sometimes, like, oh,

(28:43):
they can't keep not covering. I would not bet Loyal
to Chicago to win this game. I'll say that. I
don't think there's value as much value in fading them
as we saw in some of these earlier games this season,
but I wouldn't bet them to win here.

Speaker 1 (28:59):
Yeah, well, like I guess, let's get into this one
for a second, because I have some opinion on this
as well. So Loyola Chicago is such an outlier that
I've I've had to pretty much cross their games off
at this point.

Speaker 2 (29:13):
The reason for that is, like what you're saying, like.

Speaker 1 (29:16):
I, if I were to trust my numbers, it's gonna
make Loyola Chicago a play pretty much every time. And
I got burned by doing that in the Wichita game,
and then there was one other where I lost a
bet on Loyola Chicago.

Speaker 2 (29:30):
And that's the thing, like they are so.

Speaker 1 (29:31):
Clearly not where they were where they were rated coming
into the season that if you make your own numbers
and power ratings, you're gonna show value on Loyola Chicago
pretty much every game. But if you have eyeballs and
beat Brian and I both have two of them, So
we have four combined eyeballs right here that watch a
lot of college basketball, and you've watched this team play,

(29:52):
you can't possibly think that they're anything close to what
they're rating. Is so like for me, it's I've they're
one of like two T teams. I can't remember who
the other one is, but I had it marked down.
I have two teams that I have like a little
note that just says skip because they're so far off
of what their rating is that it's me trying to

(30:14):
make a number.

Speaker 2 (30:15):
Is just gonna gonna mess things. It's gonna put it
on my radar.

Speaker 1 (30:18):
And and and I'm not gonna and I don't want
to have action on this team. You want to talk about,
so San Diego State, I will talk about them first.
I'm sorry, San Jose State, San Jose State, the Spartans.
This game is in Palm Springs, California, as part of
the Actor Sure Uh Holiday Invitational. For those keeping track
at home to all of.

Speaker 2 (30:38):
These you know tournaments.

Speaker 1 (30:40):
San Jose State was one of the teams that had
that I had circled coming into the season, that had
guys like essentially throwing games last year.

Speaker 2 (30:47):
They were what they literally had people convicted or not.

Speaker 1 (30:50):
I don't know if convicted is the right term, but
like found that they were actually doing that. And there
and and I think two or at least two guys
that were on that team lineast year our banned from
college basketball, I believe, Like so we had like eight
teams that had suspicion of it happening. Fresno State and
San Jose State both like they both found and I
think New Orleans was another one where they straight up found,

(31:13):
like yeah, this was going on. So for me, like
in my head, San Jose State's not like priors from
last year were pretty skewed because it's like, well, if
you've got dudes that are trying to miss shots to
cash tickets, like that's going to ruin your priors.

Speaker 2 (31:28):
They came out this year.

Speaker 1 (31:31):
They came out this year in their first three games
and they played three what I consider pretty good teams,
pretty tough Utah, Santa Barbara, and then I actually cashed
with them against Michigan State.

Speaker 2 (31:43):
They played a very good second half in that game.

Speaker 1 (31:46):
Now, they got blitzed by Tulsa yesterday lost by thirty,
but that's a Tulsa team that I like. And Brian,
these two teams actually played in the NIT last year
in the postseason NIT Chicago won seventy three to seventy.
I'm going off memory here. I feel like it was
a very competitive game and if you want to if

(32:08):
you think they're taking anything from that game, well, that
Loyola Chicago team last year was better than this one.
And San Jose State was at the end of a
season where they literally had people throwing games. So I
lean towards San Jose State. I just don't know if
I have the fortitude, if you will, to go against
Loyola Chicago and then have this be the spot where

(32:29):
they decide to win a game.

Speaker 4 (32:31):
Yeah. And the thing, you know what.

Speaker 3 (32:33):
Really speaks poorly to Loyola is it's not that they're
not just that they're not covering. It's like how bad
they're missing the number by I mean they lose yesterday
as a sick you would have thought, okay, they're getting
more than two possessions. It was the big It was
the most points they'd gotten in any game all year
so far, six and a half against Northern Iowa. They
lose by twenty one. Of course, the game before that

(32:54):
was the complete disaster. I was fortunate enough to give
out Northern Illinois on the show last week as a
thirteen and a half point dog.

Speaker 4 (33:01):
They went outright at Loyola.

Speaker 3 (33:04):
You know, there are a four point dog Loyola against
Colorado State, they lose by thirteen. They're a five and
a half point dog against Wichita, loose by twenty one.

Speaker 4 (33:12):
They were a one.

Speaker 3 (33:13):
Point favorite against North Texas lost by two. That was
where they came the closest to the odds makers. I mean,
they lost to Mercy Hurst College is a twenty one
and a half point favorite, and then they only beat
a terrible Cleveland State team by three as a seventeen
and a half point favorite. So it's really hard, I think, guys,
I know, you know there's such a tendency to catch

(33:33):
the falling knife or catch the falling pen there.

Speaker 4 (33:35):
I'm glad I didn't drop that trick. You missed that.

Speaker 3 (33:37):
I'm kind of upset, but but you know, I don't
know if this is it. At some point there will
be a clear Bi Low spot, but I don't know
if it's it here, all.

Speaker 1 (33:49):
Right, I want to go to deuce big Low. In
the chat, he says New Hampshire and Brown and and
since I showed up in the brown sweatshirt today Brown Bears,
we should talk about this game. Also, there's a pretty
significant line move in process which I want to address.
And I also have a pretty strong opinion on this

(34:10):
Brown team. And I guess you can decide what you
want to do with it or not. Don't worry, we
are going to lock in some plays and we will
do the same thing for the parlay that we did yesterday.

Speaker 2 (34:19):
But we're trying to hit the games you want to
talk about.

Speaker 1 (34:21):
So Brown opened minus three and I considered it on
the open and now that places are up to six,
I do kind of wish I took Brown minus three.
With that being said, I think it's probably personnel related.
So if you I follow, this is just a team

(34:43):
that I happen to follow closely. Coming into this season,
I was pretty down on Brown. They had they no
Markeino Lilly. They I just don't think that they're going
to be close to what they've been in years past.
So coming in the year they opened the season with,
I think Sianna played them like the second night or

(35:05):
their second game.

Speaker 2 (35:06):
I forget who they opened with. But the point is
I was looking to.

Speaker 1 (35:09):
Play against this Brown team because in addition to that,
they were missing a couple of their best players. Now
I think the reason for this jump in the line
might be Alex Lesbert might be back today, but even
if he's not, they recently got back to starters. I
think within their last couple of games, Landon Lewis returned.

(35:30):
He was the big one he's probably their best player,
and David Rochester was another one that was projected starter
that came back. They both played the last two games.
Brown looked a lot better with those two guys on
the floor over the weekend against Maine. So New Hampshire
is a similar team to Maine, you would think that

(35:51):
like Brown probably fairs similar. It's a game that they
probably should win. Now you throw the wrinkle of like
it's an early tip. It's in New Hampshire, so it's
a home game for New Hampshire, a rogue game. Could
New Hampshire hang around? Yeah, I guess so. If Alex
Lesbert's back that would be his first appearance for Brown

(36:14):
this year.

Speaker 2 (36:14):
Then I'd really like them.

Speaker 1 (36:15):
In this spot because because it would be the best
team that they've put on the floor. But like for me,
the conundrum was, well, I don't think the player personnel
things are priced in for Brown, but I still don't
think this team is going to be close to what
they've been the last couple of years, and I don't
think they're very good. It's ultimately what held me off
from playing Brown minus three though now where the market is,

(36:37):
I kind of wish I did to answer Duce this question. No,
I wouldn't punch back here. I think Brown is the
right side. I think you just missed the good number
At this point, I.

Speaker 4 (36:48):
Don't have much on this game.

Speaker 3 (36:49):
I'll just say remember when Rob Schneider and paid off
people to write positive reviews about the movie Duce Bigelo,
that was a sad time.

Speaker 1 (36:57):
Okay, I gotta I gotta cut you off for a second, KT,
because this was the guy that asked for the time said, listen,
we're not doing live time stamps.

Speaker 2 (37:06):
I don't know what kind of production you think we
have here.

Speaker 1 (37:09):
Like Ah, I'm literally producing the show on the fly,
and we're adding the time.

Speaker 2 (37:15):
Stamps at the end.

Speaker 1 (37:16):
So until I have a much larger production budget, you're
gonna have to wait.

Speaker 4 (37:21):
What game you want to know about, kat, I haven't
written down. We did an.

Speaker 3 (37:24):
Intro at zero to open two point thirty. We went
to Iowa State q SO eleven forty two. We went
to Michigan Gonzaga seventeen fifty six, Columbia Fairfield twenty two
to fifty, bell Mon Toledo twenty eight minutes, San Jose
State Loyal in Chicago thirty three fifty six.

Speaker 4 (37:39):
We did New Hampshire Browns.

Speaker 1 (37:40):
Jersey, hold on, you got it. First of all, they
had time stamps in baseball. We did the same thing
in baseball. We stamped them after the show. They will
be in there after the show. We've gotten the time
stamps in after the show every single time, so they
will be on the replay. But you got to give
us more than like one minute. And certainly they're not
going to be in while we're doing the show live,
so apologies, but what they will be in there. Brian

(38:03):
just gave him out on the show. That's the first
thing we've given out actionable on the show. It's the
time stamps. So we're gonna get to some place, you
know what. I'm gonna get to a play. Garth asked
about a game, and I've got a bet in this one.
So I'm gonna put you on the spot in a second, Brian,
to see if you've got your leg in the parlay,
because I want to give something actionable and start to

(38:23):
build the three teamer. But for Garth, he's his thoughts
on FDU Army another fade Army spot. Yeah, that is
for very very similar reasons. The one thing I won
yesterday on what was a very bad day for me
was East Texas A and M absolutely destroying Army.

Speaker 2 (38:43):
I gave it out here on the show.

Speaker 1 (38:45):
It ended up being a client play for me and
they absolutely crushed Army on Fairly Dickinson's court. So now
as part of this MTE in Hackensack, New Jersey, Brian,
that's where that's where Fairley Dickinson is part of the MTE.
Army will now play Fairly Dickinson in what is a
home game.

Speaker 2 (39:05):
For Fairlely Dickinson.

Speaker 1 (39:07):
So I bet this, this is a three percent play
for clients. It opened minus one and a half, but
most places by the time they had this up was
like minus two and a half. So that's I waited
until at least like all of like the MGM's fan
Duels DraftKings had this up and played minus two and

(39:27):
a half. But I did put in there that this
would probably move. And I also put in that you
could play the money line and just like lay a
little bit more juice if you didn't want to take
like three and a half or four when I had
minus two and a half. So I see the market
is at three and a half right now, Brian. What
I'm gonna do for my leg of the parlay, and

(39:48):
so if if you didn't see what we did yesterday,
we're gonna go I do a leg, you do a leg,
and then we'll do a consensus leg to build the
three team. Or when we agree on for my leg
of the parlay, I'm just gonna put in fair Dickinson
on the money line, whatever that is. We'll figure it
out by the end of the show. And I will
let you know, Garth that this is a client play
for me. I laid two and a half with Fairley Dickinson.

(40:10):
I Army is just for me. They're a bottom ten
team in college basketball, and they weren't competitive with East
Texas A and M. I don't see how they turn
around and fare any better against Fairley Dickinson, who will
be on their home floor here. I don't know how
many people are showing up to a hack and sack
MTE with like Fairly Dickinson, Army, East Texas A and

(40:34):
M and whoever else is there. I forget, but it
is a Fairly Dickinson home game, and they'll at least
have their own fans, so I do give them a
little bit of a bump for playing at home. We've
briefly lost Brian Power. We'll get him back, but I
do give him a little bit of a bump for
playing at home. And that bump that's my number here.

(40:55):
I think I made it like six and a half
fairly Dickinson. So it doesn't surprise me at all that
they're taking money and it's moving and I think that
is a very strong look on the early slate today,
So fairly Dickinson. Money line will be the first leg
of our parlay, and Doug thank you. I'm gonna use

(41:15):
Doug says minus one and a half on the money line,
or I'm sorry, minus one seventy five. Listen if you
if you have a three and a half and you
can get three for minus one twenty or less, like
that's fine for a straight bet if you don't want
to lay like that juiced up minus one and a half.
But I'm sorry that juiced up minus three. But for

(41:39):
the parlay, it's gonna be minus one and a half.
Or I'm sorry, it's gonna be minus one seventy five.
Excuse me, So first leg of the parlay minus one
seventy five. Brian Power has lost power. He just texted me,
he said, my power just went out. It does not
get more ironic then Brian power losing power. But that's

(42:02):
what's happened. So we're gonna power through. We're gonna power through.
We've got twenty eighteen minutes left. I've got power, so
let's talk some more games. Eighteen minutes left. That being said,
I don't know if I'm gonna I don't know if
I'm gonna do a three team or on my own.
So because Brian is still getting tech service, I will

(42:25):
get his parlay leg and I'll just I guess I'll
just try to explain it. But again, first leg of
the parlay is Fairley Dickinson minus one seventy five.

Speaker 2 (42:35):
And I guess what.

Speaker 1 (42:36):
Because of this, I'm just gonna give you my other
early client play. So I will give you the other
thing I've played so far for clients, and let me
really just navigate to the right part of the odd
screen and we'll put those in as the first two
legs of the parlay, because I did play another early game,

(42:56):
and so that's gonna be app State, Appalachian State against Mercer.

Speaker 2 (43:02):
Let me just navigate to the board, see if this
has moved at all. I think even if.

Speaker 1 (43:07):
It's this has moved, we'll probably still play it in
the parlay. So yes, it's down to you can still
get six and a half on app State here. If
actually there's still sevens out there for the parlay, I'll
put six and a half. But there are still sevens,
So I played Appalachian State plus seven and this will

(43:28):
be leg number two of the parlay. This is also
a three percent client play for yours truly, so another
one of my paid plays will be leg number two
of the parlay. Pretty much a numbers play. But also
I think this was a line I didn't fully understand,
so I have this closer to like, if these two

(43:52):
teams were to play on a neutral I would have
Mercer minus one. This is another just traditional game. It's
not part of an MTE. It's a home game for Mercer.
I highly doubt McCone Macon. Is it Macon, Georgia or like,
someone will have to tell me how to pronounce that city,
but that's where Mercer is located. I don't think you're

(44:14):
going to get some sort of crazy lively atmosphere there
for this game, to the point where I would give
them like full marks for being at home here. So
just based on that and the fact that Appalachian State
in their last game got absolutely embarrassed at home by Elon,
just completely destroyed. Weren't ready to play. It wasn't like

(44:37):
anyone was out. It was just straight up they did
not come ready to play. They got ran out of
their own building. This is an app State team that
I don't have as highly rated as I've had in
past years. I don't think this team is as good
as their last couple, but like there's still a capable
Sun Belt team. They should not be getting seven points
against Mercer in my opinion, So oh in the chat,

(45:00):
Macon like Bacon, Okay, Macon, Macon Georgia. I had to
take app State plus seven here. Just way too much
of a difference between where I have the number and
where this number is to not play it between with
two teams that I think, for for all intentsive purposes,
are very equal. You know, uh, Mercer comes out of

(45:23):
the SoCon. I think app States League is a little
bit better again. I know, I know there's some folks
high high on on Mercer this year, higher than they've
been in past years, which I think is maybe the
reason that the line is is what it is. But
I also think that that performance against Elon for app
State is very much in play here, and and I

(45:45):
disagree with like that one game being like the determining
factors as to where you would rate app State. So
the second leg of our parlay will be another client
play for me, and that's Appalachian State plus seven. So
we have two legs of the parlay locked in and

(46:07):
Brian Power is texting me, so let's go and let's
give his leg out. He's gonna go to one of
the bigger games, so he We're gonna navigate towards Kansas,
Tennessee for Brian Power's parlay leg and then I see you,
I see you, us U see San Diego folks.

Speaker 2 (46:27):
We'll go to that game next because I do have
an opinion there.

Speaker 1 (46:31):
But for Brian, I'm just gonna give his leg of
the parlay out right now. And I just want to
make sure that I've got this number correct. So let's
go back to the Players Era. This is another game
that I have to be honest, like, I don't personally
have a huge opinion on a lot of these Players

(46:51):
Era games, and the reason for that is just the
nature of three games in three days, just learning your opponent,
and it's just so unnatural to me, like the way
that this is set up that I don't think, I
don't know that I'll have any action in any of
these unless something is just like so sets up so

(47:12):
nicely that I'm like, hey, I've got to like play
it anyway, Trevor. Trevor agrees with Brian Power. So, Brian
powers play is the under under under under under under
third game in three days and two defensive oriented teams,
Kansas won't have the download success today. Yeah, well that's

(47:33):
what that's the way Brian Power.

Speaker 2 (47:34):
Is looking here. He's going with the under.

Speaker 1 (47:38):
It's currently one thirty nine, one thirty eight and a
half one thirty nine. I'm gonna give him one thirty
nine and I'll just I'll give him one thirty nine
and I'll just attach a minus one twenty to it
for the parlay, because that way, if you do have
the one thirty nine, then you just take it. Otherwise,

(47:58):
you know, just move it a half point in your
I'm sure one thirty eight and a half is fine.

Speaker 2 (48:04):
He didn't write me as handicap.

Speaker 1 (48:06):
But again, if that's the way you're looking at it,
I mean, it certainly makes sense. Two defensive oriented teams,
third game in three days, Kansas missing one of their
best players. I'm also not like fully sold on Tennessee
on the offensive floor just yet or on the offensive
end of the floora just yet. So that will be

(48:26):
that will be the play, and that's going to be
the three teamer. We're going to go Kansas Tennessee under
one thirty nine, and I will recap that at the
end of the show. And also I will calculate the
parlay odds because we of course have a money line
in there, so I'll do that at the end of
the show. Boss Gordon, let's go to Boss Gordon in

(48:50):
the chat for a second. How do y'all listen to Trigg?
He's always wrong. I don't know I'm winning in football
right now, and an okay, baseball season.

Speaker 2 (49:02):
Baseball season was was fine.

Speaker 1 (49:04):
I feel like I kind of broke out like close
to even college basketball. First couple of weeks, I'm negative.
After the last couple of days, I did go five
and one on Monday. It's mid November, and so I'll
talk always wrong is harsh. I would say I'm probably
have been right about fifty percent of the time thus

(49:24):
thus far, hoping to get that up to fifty five
fifty six percent.

Speaker 2 (49:28):
That's the goal.

Speaker 1 (49:30):
You get to fifty five fifty six percent. That's about
as right as you can get doing this. I will
say this though, like I've structured bets accordingly, Like almost
all my plays have been three percent plays it with
a four percenter sprinkled in here and there. Later in
the season that'll probably be more four and five percent.

(49:51):
So I did sort of like bake in playing a
little bit smaller earlier because even though I'm showing edges
in there and like good ones, I just think that
you have to you really have to take like what
you see in the early going with a grain of
salt because of and that's just the nature of college
basketball at this point, new teams, new rosters, mte stuff

(50:16):
like it's it's so very hard to handicap handicapping motivation
in November for teams, especially for these big teams, these
big power conference teams, that the way college basketball is
now built gives them so many chances to make up
for losing a November game, So that makes it challenging.
So again it's it's just it's very it's it's very

(50:39):
very challenging. Adam Adam said, says, why do you waste
time responding to those idiots? Could have hit another game? Yeah,
but I also have no co host right now, so
I just felt like it. So now it's really my show,
except Brian Power is back. He's back on the grid.
He's back on the grid. Brian, I gave out your
parlay leg. Do you want to shed some light now

(51:00):
that you have me? Yeah, on the Kansas on the
Kansas Tennessee for us.

Speaker 3 (51:05):
Yeah, glad that we don't have to uh, what is
it rub two sticks together and whatever?

Speaker 2 (51:10):
I don't know.

Speaker 4 (51:12):
That was weird, man.

Speaker 3 (51:13):
I'm just sitting there watch show, and I just went
dark behind me. And then the next thing I knew,
it was dark up all in the room. So let
me see if I can grab my notes back up.
I should be able to if you guys can just
bear with me. That was really embarrassing in a new low,
quite frankly for years truly, But which is.

Speaker 4 (51:31):
All right, We're back, all right, let's talk.

Speaker 3 (51:34):
Kansas Tennessee third place game in this Player's Era event.
Both teams two and zero in Vegas, but they just
didn't have a point diffrenchs that Michigan.

Speaker 4 (51:42):
Zagon did obviously.

Speaker 3 (51:43):
Nevertheless, I think Tennessee beating Houston last night pretty dark impressive.
Trig Monday, I remember talking about there being a world
where there might be some decent value on the balls
in that matchup, provided they didn't blow out Rutgers. Of course,
they did blow out Rutgers, so I didn't play it yesterday.
Turns out though points not needed for Rick Bard's team,
still undefeated by the way, seven to straight up. Meanwhile,

(52:07):
what sticks out to me about Kansas guys isn't necessarily
just the two losses, which were to Duke in North Carolina,
but the fact their last five games have all stayed
under the total, and in the two games here in Vegas,
the Jayhawks have allowed just point nine to two points
per possession. They now have a top ten defensive rating
over at Ken Palm, of course, so does Tennessee was

(52:27):
a much better offensive rating. Peterson still being out for
Kansas is a big deal, but the real key for
tonight is can Kansas do what really no Tennessee opponent
has done this far, and that's limit the balls on
the offensive glass. I mean, a forty eight point two
offensive rebound percentage isn't just number one in the country,
it's just pretty ridiculous when you break it down. The

(52:48):
balls have size.

Speaker 4 (52:49):
We know this.

Speaker 3 (52:50):
Three starters six foot ten or taller. So offensive rebounding
is gonna be a big strength for them all season.
There's gonna be second chance opportunities. I realize that doesn't
sound great when I'm talking about Betton and under here,
but Tennessee is going to force their opponents to shoot
threes defensively, and that's a problem for Kansas because they're
only making thirty two percent from behind the arc. I
think this is probably an undergame because whichever team loses

(53:13):
Trig is going to have a bad shooting night. And

(53:40):
what happened to Trig, Well, that was fun as I
broke that one down. Guys, hopefully, what an incredible program
this has been so far? This a what a program
this has been.

Speaker 2 (53:58):
I swear that was unplanned, but I wonder.

Speaker 1 (54:01):
So we only live like five hours apart in like
the very in the same part of the country that
my my power just blinked, but it only like went
out very briefly.

Speaker 3 (54:09):
It did, But it's totally screwed me over. That was
the same thing as mine.

Speaker 2 (54:13):
Yeah, are you getting weather right now?

Speaker 1 (54:15):
Like is it raining? Yeah, it's windy and raining here
as well. Yeah, soosed we're.

Speaker 3 (54:19):
Supposed to get snow later today, So I think I
think this may be weather related here.

Speaker 1 (54:24):
Yeah, we are supposed to get, like, I guess, a
lot of snow tomorrow. So it must be just coming
down I ninety. So that's like Brian and I live
on the same road basically, just literally five hours apart.
Interstate ninety Central New York, Interstate ninety, middle of Ohio.
And but I'm I am back, So I'm assuming that
you finished your breakdown?

Speaker 3 (54:43):
Can we any And then and then I came back
and I had all my notes, and I said, well,
what do you got to say about that?

Speaker 4 (54:49):
Trigg?

Speaker 3 (54:49):
And you weren't there, and I really didn't know what
to do, and I said, oh, how about I didn't know.
I didn't know if I had been kicked out again.

Speaker 4 (54:55):
I didn't know what was going to go on.

Speaker 1 (54:58):
Hey, listen, we fight, we we battle through it. We're
back on here. We have I did, so I did.
I just took the liberty of putting both of my
early client plays in the in the three teamers. So
we've got the parlay locked and we do have a
few minutes left here.

Speaker 2 (55:14):
I want to I want to talk.

Speaker 1 (55:15):
So the chat has been clamoring for you see San
Diego Towson chatter, and so let's let's talk about this game.

Speaker 2 (55:24):
I so I told you I had had another.

Speaker 1 (55:27):
Team that I think I was pretty far off market
on this one would be in the other direction. Uh,
And that's you see San Diego and after yesterday, So
I did bet Bradley yesterday and and I that was
one of those ones where like early on I kind
of regret, like once I got to watch the flow

(55:47):
of the game a little bit, I regretted that a
lot like I was like I had ed buyer's remorse
because I was like, oh shit, like this is like
I've got the wrong side.

Speaker 2 (55:57):
It was one of those where I was like, I'm
on the wrong side. You see San Diego just looks better,
and of course they were better.

Speaker 1 (56:04):
So some of you might know Jordan Alexander, who is
He does a lot of content here. We'll probably get
him on for a guest spot at some point. But
the reason I bring him up is late last night
him and I were talking about the game, talking about
UC San Diego, and he is as tuned in as
anyone to that conference in those teams. He lives out

(56:25):
I think he's in I think he's in Vegas now,
but he's from the the I think California area somewhere.
He texted me this, he said, you see San Diego
is going to be a wagon again. Man, he said,
books are flustered. They don't know how to price them
with a new head coach and an entire new roster.
But Clint Allard was the brains behind the operation. This
team is really good and no one has them ranked appropriately.

(56:49):
And so I bring him up because last year he
was he was the first person, he was the driver
of the UC San Diego bandwagon that everyone hopped on.
He was the first person that talked about them to
my knowledge that was like, this team is so good.
And then of course by March my mom was like,

(57:10):
oh you see San Diego.

Speaker 3 (57:12):
Yeah, and then of course, and then of course what
happens They played the worst first half of the season
they have and then just missed out on covering the.

Speaker 4 (57:19):
Number by half a point against Michigan.

Speaker 2 (57:21):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (57:22):
So that's what imagine that Taylor made for him from
a turnover perspective.

Speaker 1 (57:27):
So so what he's saying and and the and what
is totally sort of taken that team. I've that's the
other one I've thrown out now where it's like my
rating is probably going to show value to fade them,
and I've just straight decided that I am not playing
against U see San Diego at this point because I
trut because I trust Jordan's opinion on that team. That's

(57:49):
a team that he he he follows that team the
way I follow like Brown or Sianna or like one
of those. So it's like, if he's telling me that
they're they could essentially follow the same trajectory as they
did last year, which they already pretty much have. Something
I will tell you about Towson. We talked about Towson
with with Matt Winnock yesterday and he pointed out that

(58:09):
you know they're gonna they're gonna defend the paint. They
also have real issues scoring. I think I noted that
they're outside the top three hundred and scoring this year.
But like you see, San Diego in a lot of
cases can just shoot over you.

Speaker 2 (58:25):
So it's like that, you know, and you talk about
U see San Diego.

Speaker 1 (58:30):
Is just their their surface numbers, twenty second nationally, field
goal percentage that looks a lot like last year, thirty
fifth nationally three point percentage that looks a lot like
last year. You won't catch me betting against the Tritons
anytime soon. So it has to be you see San
Diego or pass.

Speaker 2 (58:48):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (58:48):
And I think the other question you have to ask
is towlesing gonna both three upsets in three days. I mean,
it's not impressive that the teams have done up before,
but it's it's it's a tall order. Usually the odds
makers aren't all like the three days in a row
with the same.

Speaker 1 (58:59):
Tan and to know, just to just to also mention
like tousand's very good, like tousand's probably like Towson has
two guys back Williamson and Tahata that we were two
of the better players in that conference last season. They're
they have a tremendous coach, They're excellent defensively, they can
rebound like they have.

Speaker 2 (59:20):
They have so many redeeming qualities.

Speaker 1 (59:22):
They're not really a team I want to fade, but
I'm I'm here, Like if you pinned me down for
this play in this game, I I just don't think
I would go against UC San Diego.

Speaker 2 (59:33):
That that's a that's about it. Sean.

Speaker 1 (59:36):
Yeah, we'll we'll go a couple. But because we had
a little power out of outage, they may they may
cut the Twitter stream. So if you get cut off
on Twitter. I don't know if there's anyone after us today,
but if you get cut off on Twitter.

Speaker 4 (59:47):
I have a little bit. So how about we do this.

Speaker 3 (59:50):
I'll ret we we can recap the parlay because I
think we've We've got a lot, We've got a lot
of recapping and I've got no I can go through
Saint John's Auburn real quick before we.

Speaker 2 (01:00:00):
Break, So yeah, let's do that.

Speaker 1 (01:00:02):
I'm gonna go to Brian Power, He's gonna close it
down Saint John's Auburn, and then j buff in at
the gun with now hello's I've ever seen in the chat.
This is gonna take up the whole screen, Jay buff
We already did Syracuse at the top of the show
for you, So heading over to the wager Talk YouTube.

Speaker 2 (01:00:21):
Channel if we missed the show and you can how
great you were. Yeah, you can watch the.

Speaker 1 (01:00:26):
Replay, and also while you're over there like and subscribe
and guess what, while you're over there in like an hour,
there's gonna be time stamps believe it or oh.

Speaker 4 (01:00:35):
Yes, all right, we're both through Saint John's Auburn.

Speaker 3 (01:00:39):
I'm gonna go out on a limb trig and say
Auburn is gonna play a lot better if here than
they did last night, the thirty point lost to Michigan.
We talked about that Auburn Michigan game a little bit
at the top. We were breaking down Michigan Zaga Tigers.
They shot just thirty five and a half percent over all,
out rebounded fifty one to thirty five, outscored on the
fast break twenty nine to three. He shot Hall had
an off night season low fifteen. He'd scored twenty or

(01:01:01):
more each of the team's first four games. Meanwhile, good
bounce back last night for the Johnnies after they opened
this event with the one point loss to Iowa State.
Rick Patino's team beats previously undefeated Baylor by fifteen last night.
Sellers has continues to shoot the ball the three well.
He's had made five threes each of the last two days.

(01:01:22):
That's why Patino went to the portal grabbed them from Stanford.
Speaking of transferred, you got Bryce Hopkins, of course, come
over from Providence. He had twenty six last night. He
was perfect from three. Yes, Saint John's deserves to be
favored by a couple possessions here, Trigg, But my concern
is whether or not there will be any kind of
offensive regression for them following a game where they shoot
fifty seven percent overall from the floor, including eleven of

(01:01:44):
twenty two from three. This is not a high volume
team from three, so last night's performance from behind the
arc feels like a bit of an anomaly. Then again,
Auburn disappointing eighty first in adjusted defensive efficiency for Ken Palm.
We know Saint John's wants to play fast, our top
twenty five team and ad justin tempbo. But one thing
that sticks out to me with this Auburn team they

(01:02:04):
don't turn the ball over. I think I don't know
I would take the points or do nothing here in
this one, just because I don't think Say John's is
playing as well as they did last night, and I
think Auburn can only improve.

Speaker 1 (01:02:21):
John Wood says, thanks guys, your free client players have
made him a lot of money.

Speaker 2 (01:02:26):
I appreciate that. That's all.

Speaker 1 (01:02:28):
That's all we're trying to do. We're just trying to share,
like that's what we're trying to do on this show.
Share good info and help you go at a.

Speaker 2 (01:02:37):
Market that has three hundred and sixty four teams.

Speaker 1 (01:02:40):
So at any info we can share in this hour
we try to do so all we you know, if
you want what we're betting on, which I think over
the course of the year will be pretty good. November
is probably the toughest month at this point. We have
those at wager Talk. And because Brian Power lost power,

(01:03:00):
you got morning Yeah. Yeah, it's just Brian now no
more power. You got my early client place here. So
I've locked in two plays so far. I took the
liberty VP of because your power went out.

Speaker 2 (01:03:15):
We were going to do a consensus leg like Matt
Winnick and.

Speaker 1 (01:03:18):
I did yesterday as a third leg, but I just
took the liberty of giving two plays. So because we've
already done it, I gotta say this too because people want, like, yes,
the parlay lost yesterday once again on the third leg.
We hit the first two. We lost it on the
third leg, and so after our hot start. So so

(01:03:39):
the first week of the year we had fifteen point
two two units. We are now down to just three
point two two units in the bank, but we're still
in the plus. And again, you don't have to parlay,
and you can play them all straight. You're probably doing
better if you play them all straight. But at the
same time, it's like it's gonna this is the ebbs
and flows of parlay bed like you're gonna go.

Speaker 2 (01:04:01):
You might go two weeks without hitting one. You might
hit a couple back to back.

Speaker 1 (01:04:04):
That's what happened to us during the baseball season, where
we'd like get up to like fifteen units, get back
down to zero, we'd hit one. I think we finished
the year six months of firing parlays up like five
units on parlays.

Speaker 2 (01:04:17):
So better than negatives, put it that way.

Speaker 1 (01:04:21):
So for the for the people out there that are
always like record keeping, record keeping, record keeping, every dollar,
if you were to play these all equally, every dollar.

Speaker 2 (01:04:31):
Equally, like one dollar would.

Speaker 1 (01:04:33):
Equal three point two to two dollars or what we'll
call to make it more simple for the show, three
point twenty two units. Today's parlay fairly Dickinson on the
money line. That's minus one seventy five appalation state plus
six and a half. I will point out that appalation
state plus seven and fairly Dickinson minus two and a

(01:04:56):
half are both three percent client plays for yours truly.
And then Tim Power is going Kansas Tennessee. Do you
see a number on that right now? One thirty eight
and a half. So we'll go Kansas Tennessee under one
thirty eight and a half. Plus four fifty is what
that comes out to. And I did. I threw in

(01:05:17):
a minus one twenty there in case you know one
of those was off. So plus four fifty that's fairly
dickingson money line. App state plus six and a half,
Kansas Tennessee under one thirty nine and a half. Little
bit of a little bit of a power blinking here
and there not going to stop us. We made it
through the show. Hope everyone has. If you're traveling today,

(01:05:39):
be safe, especially if you're traveling by where Brian and
I live, because it doesn't look great out there right now.
We'll be here tomorrow, well I will be. Matt Winnick
is back filling in tomorrow. So we'll say happy Thanksgiving
to BP and yeah, we'll see you guys back here
tomorrow morning, ten am. Thanksgiving edition a full Court Press.

(01:06:00):
We'll see you at everyone, gobblegobble,