December 23, 2025 • 59 mins
Welcome to Full Court Press — your go-to college basketball betting show for game-day odds, expert picks, and matchup analysis across the NCAA slate. Each episode dives deep into spreads, totals, team props, and advanced stats to help you stay sharp all season long.
00:00 Breaking up the CBB season
03:30 Villanova/Seton Hall
11:00 Lindenwood/Missouri State
18:50 Binghamton/Army
25:12 Green Bay/Campbell
31:32 Bellarmine/Kentucky
37:50 UC Riverside/UCLA
44:10 Harvard/St John's
49:58 Florida Atlantic/UCF
56:18 Rapid Fire Thoughts/Parlay
00:00 Breaking up the CBB season
03:30 Villanova/Seton Hall
11:00 Lindenwood/Missouri State
18:50 Binghamton/Army
25:12 Green Bay/Campbell
31:32 Bellarmine/Kentucky
37:50 UC Riverside/UCLA
44:10 Harvard/St John's
49:58 Florida Atlantic/UCF
56:18 Rapid Fire Thoughts/Parlay
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
All right, welcome man.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
It is Tuesday, but well, more importantly, it's five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Get that out of the way. Five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
At wager Talk, every handicap will have a play up
for five bucks. Whether it's college basketball, college footballer's Bowl
games today, early NFL. There's other sports going on that
I don't really pay attention to, Like I think NFL.
ROB maybe has some NBA, So check that out. Five
dollars Tuesday, every handicapper's got something up for sale.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
For just five dollars.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
But more importantly, Rob, it is our final show of
I break the college basketball season into three seasons. I
think there's three separate seasons in a college basketball season,
and even more so true now that non conference I
think means a little bit less. For example, if you're
in a low major and even most mid major leagues,
(00:55):
you've got to win that tournament in March to get
to the NCAA Tournament. If you're the big guy the
Syracuses of the world, the middling teams in your power conference,
you've got unlimited opportunities to get big wins along the way.
So the way I look at it, Rob, and I'm
interested to see your take on this as well. I
look at it as three seasons. There's non conference, there's conference,
(01:19):
and then there's the postseason. That's your your conference tournament
and whatever postseason tournament you end up in the NCAA,
the NIT if they're gonna do some crown thing this year,
whatever that is. So for me, I didn't have a
great non conference but that ends today and I kind
of will clean the slate the next three four days.
(01:40):
I look at what went wrong, what went right, and
try to sort of retweak and redo my numbers to
come out of the of the break almost reset. So
I'm interested to get your take on that and if
you sort of tweak anything on this four day break
that we're going into.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
Yeah, I actually break it into four ship seasons atam
non conference conference conference tournaments, and then postseason tournaments, just
because I handicap conference tournaments and the postseason differently. You
have great familiarity in conference tournaments. You have teams that
already know they're going to the Big Dance, so you
(02:17):
know there's teams that are absolutely trying to climb the
ladder and get into.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
The Big dance.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
And then when you get into the postseason where you
have all these non conference criss crosses with only one
day to prepare, et cetera. It's a different handicap. So
strictly on handicapping theory and way that I go about things,
I break it into fours. But yeah, this is the
end of one of those right now.
Speaker 4 (02:42):
And you know when we.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
Return, well, yeah, actually do. When we do return from
Christmas break care, it will be the start of some
have started already, but it will be the clean start
of conference season.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
And that gets into a little bit of.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
I tell you the truth, conference season is almost two
seasons as well. January February are kind of different. January
some things are a little looser. February they're a little tighter.
So lots of angles here for college basketball handicapping.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
Yeah, Rob, there is crossover.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Of course, We're gonna come out of Christmas break and
there's gonna still be teams playing maybe their final non
conference game, maybe final two non conference games. Yet we've
already had some of the bigger conferences that have moved
toward more extensive league play play a couple of conference games,
and we've got a big East game which will be
our feature game tonight.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
So let's get into it. Villanova.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
We kind of talked about Villanova a couple of days
ago being a scrappy underdog option, and they went out
and won that game in overtime against Wisconsin with a
lot of the stuff we thought Villanova might be able
to do well, sort of coming to fruition in that game.
They're hitting the road again here and Kevin Willard a
(03:55):
little bit of a homecoming. Before he was at Maryland,
of course, he was at Seaton Hall, and he's going
to bring his new team back to Newark to take
on his old team, who has I would say, is
thriving at this point.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
We talked about that the other day too.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
Shaheen Holloway has a very Shaheen hollowayesque team. It looks
like a team that he can actually win with, team
that sells out on the defensive end and really sort
of buys in to what he wants to do. I
you know, watch this for so many years with him
in the back. When he's got a team that buys
in at the defensive end to play his style, they
(04:32):
could be They're almost always going to overachieve. And I
think it's safe to say Rob that Seaton Hall is
very much overachieving to this point in the year. So
Villanova's Seaton Hall very interesting one at the rock tonight
the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
What do you what do you see here?
Speaker 4 (04:49):
Yeah, it's interesting, you know.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
And the way you described it the other day, Adam
as a team that takes on the coach's personality, and
Kevin Willard in a press conference prior to this game,
alluded to that obviously these two guys know each other
really well. Shaheen Holloway was quoted as saying, he hopes
that the crowd gives Kevin Willard a standing ovation for
the twelve thirteen years he put.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
In at Seaton Hall his first time back. Like you said, both.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
Of these teams the other night, boy, they showed a
lot of discipline. For Let's just start with the Villanova side.
They blew a huge lead against Wisconsin and they were
pushed to the limits, and then in overtime they just
came out and destroyed Wisconsin in overtime. So credit to
Villanova for withstanding the late punch and coming back and
(05:39):
winning that game, holding their ground, so to speak. Seaton
Hall kind of the same thing. You watch that game
down the stretch and it was back and forth. You're
at Providence, they're taking the lead, Your taking lead, they're
taking lead. But in the end it was Seaton Hall
last minute, sixty seconds that pulled away. So credit to
both of these teams for going outside their home courts
(06:00):
and withstanding late punches from the home side. Actually Pfizer
form in Milwaukee for the Wisconsin game, but still Wisconsin
home crowd. For the most part. They're different in a
couple of ways here. Villanova's living off to three, Seaton
Hall lives off to two. But I think what's most
impressive about Seat and Hall, Adam, is that they're number
(06:22):
one in the country in block and steal percentage. Both
defend the rim and take the ball away. That's a
tough combination to excel at to be number one out
of all three hundred and sixty five teams that are
betable here in Division one four. Seaton Hall the backcourt
does the job with deflections and getting steals. In the
(06:42):
front court obviously with the blocks. So Villanova's in for
a tough test here. I don't know that they can
live off threes in this game, and I have to
be honest, I have no desire whatsoever. As good as
Villanova's been playing, I have no desire whatsoever to step
in front of seat in Hall right now. No matter
how they get it done, they seem to get it done.
(07:03):
And every time they've been asked to step up in
class because they've played a lot of teams they should
have been able to beat. But NC State's a tremendous offense,
hold them below their season average. Only give up seventy
four USC is an excellent offense. Go out West or
excuse me, play them on a neutral and go eighty
three eighty one two points. Shut down Kansas State's offense.
(07:25):
You've talked about that a couple of times. And of
course Providence, a really good offense under Kim Lysz, shut
them down. So I think Villanova's asset that three point
shot might be negated here tonight. And Seaton Hall just
has other ways to score, whether it be cheap points
or half court points.
Speaker 4 (07:43):
That you watch Bud Clark.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
Play this season, and he actually is the extension of
Holloway on this team. They shoot the free throws better
if it's a close game, lay, I think I like
Seaton Hall here minus two and a half.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
Yeah, that's the side I would go with as well.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
So something that we talked about with Leanova's last game
when they played Wisconsin was their guards sort of being
the key defensively to them having a chance to win
that game. That's one thing I've been most impressed with.
I've kind of criticized the Villanova roster at times coming
into the year.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
I felt like.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
I didn't think that he that Willard went out and
got the guys that were going to be like necessary
to really make a splash in the Big East. But
I'll backtrack a little bit for two reasons. One, I
don't see anyone else that's that's much better in the
Big East outside of like Yukon. And then Saint John's right,
like it's not a very good conference and too there
(08:40):
he's such an upgrade at the coaching position from what
Villanova had. And then you talk about like the scrappiness defensively,
the fact that their guards can defend the problem here
and why I'm gonna probably join you in in you know, well,
join you on Seaton Hall.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
I don't know if either of us will.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
Get to the window with it, but Bud Clark is
he's like the kind of guy that can beat good
guard defense. You know, he's another Mac guy that was
on a team where he was basically the only option
and they would just drape guys on him and it
just did not matter. And he's doing that for Seaton
Hall as well. So I think he's going to be
(09:17):
the key here for Seaton Hall. If he can kind
of generate offense and put the ball in the hoop,
then for me, Seaton Hall is the right side. But
I'm gonna proceed with caution because I was Villanova was
a team I would have been fine fading like maybe
the first three four weeks of the season, and I'm
coming around on the Wildcats a little bit. I think
I think Willard has got this team going in the
(09:38):
right direction. So Lean Seaton Hall. Not sure if I'll
get to the window with that one, but should be
a great game to finish off the night. Rob That
is a I think is as close to a standalone
game as we're going to get today. I think it's
the only game that starts at seven pm tonight.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
Yeah, lots of early stuff and I'll just I'm going
to just expand one more person an no note here
because i know you've talked about Duke Brannan a lot
on this show, and I just that matchup tonight is difficult.
The two Seaton Hall guys, Pain and Hinds are way
more active, you know, far better rim protectors.
Speaker 4 (10:15):
I just don't know what he's gonna be able to
do inside.
Speaker 3 (10:18):
So again, just the way we're looking at here, at
least I'm looking at it is that Villanova which point
distribution is very very heavy towards threes, love to shoot him.
I'm gonna have to make some here because I don't
know what they're gonna get on the interior unless it's
fast break stuff, and I don't think you're getting too
much fast break against Seaton Hall.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Yeah, I see some people in the chat saying take
the over, Like I understand it's it's probably a little
bit low from a from a numbers perspective, but man,
this does not the way this game plays out does
not feel like a game I'd be super comfortable taking
me over in. You're gonna need some some tough shot
making in my opinion, to get this one up and over.
Speaker 4 (10:59):
The tone.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
All right, Garth, let's go to This is an interesting game.
So Garth's thoughts on Lyndenwood, Missouri State under one forty
six and a half. Well, I will leave the total
portion to you, but I do have an opinion on
the side here, and so my first sort of thought
(11:23):
was that this line is kind of low from Missouri
State like that. That was my gut reaction was, you know,
only two and a half. I guess maybe that's because
linden would has been far better than most anticipated they
would be this season.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Now I think they might have. See. The thing is
the reason I haven't bet.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
Anything yet in any of these games is personnel is
going to be an issue for a lot of teams today.
This is basically every anyone that's still playing today is
you know, likely at the end of you know, three
games and ten days, they they you know, last night,
I was joking with Rob off Air Cianna. You know
the game we we got the parlay home and Sianna
(12:09):
was my parlay league and they showed up with with
four guys or they showed up without four players to
both bigs. They didn't have either of their bigs in
that game and somehow went out and covered. But like,
you know, to just like get to show up and
then learn that Riley Mouldy and Tasman Goodrick. We're not
gonna play. I mean that's the type of stuff you
might run into in just about every game today. Uh,
(12:32):
there was one for will for Lyndon Wood that could
be a factor. So I read Dontres Williams is questionable.
That would certainly hurt linden Wood. He is one of
their one of the top scorers on the team, like
thirteen thirteen point six points per game, so I would
absolutely want to know his status. But even if he
(12:52):
was in there, you know, there's two new teams in
Conference USA this year. Rob It's Missouri State and Delaware,
and kind of coming into the season, I had Missouri
State as the one that might overachieve a bit. So
my number loves Missouri State. I was like, I think
I'm out like seven and a half here it's only three.
(13:12):
But again, I just haven't played it yet because I'm
so hesitant to get involved on what is like this
like almost like a getaway day of sorts. But being
as they're the home team, I've got to leave Missouri
State's way. What do you think about that? And then
if you want to go into the total right there.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
Well, I would be scared to death to play under.
It's just simply based on possession numbers in this game.
And I know Missouri State is far more methodical. They're
probably beneath methodical. But the other side is so racehorse
paced the possession numbers in Lindenwood games. And you have
(13:50):
to throw a few of them in the garbage, right,
because a few of them are against teams that you
know there's no line on the game and they're easy wins. However,
even in instances where they've played teams, let's just say
in this class, they find their way to scoring points. Now,
question would be can they For me, Missouri State should
(14:15):
dictate most of the tempo, right because it's the home team,
and as fast as linden Would is, Missouri State may
be able to slow them down. Nothing frustrates a fast
paced team more than slowing it down. So if Missoo
State can get on the boards and kind of slow
things up a little bit, then that could be enough
to keep it slightly under. But I don't know that
(14:37):
there's enough wiggle room here, Adam. Honestly, you're only looking
at a total in the mid one forties, and for
what it's worth, as bad shooting as Missouri State has
been from beyond the Arc, as slow a pace as
they want to play, they still find their way to
the seventies and a lot of these games, and at
one forty four and a half, I think I'm looking
(14:57):
at one forty five's now as I start the screen
at that number, you can get to this point pretty easily.
So for me, I'd be afraid to play it under.
I'm not gonna talk Garth off of anything that he likes,
but it's a no play for me. And as fast
as Linden would plays, well, there's by you kind of
reiterating what I'm saying here, is that when you have
(15:19):
this number of possessions, and actually the faster you play,
the more fouling that occurs in these games generally speaking,
and you wind up on the line getting free points too.
So if the game's anywhere and you're close at the end,
you have to factor in for the final sixty.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
Seconds that could become a foul fast.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
Like I say, I can't play it under because I
would just be a nervous wreck the entire time.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
So something I should have probably pointed out, and this
also probably is is baked into the number, and it's
probably why my number is off of what the number
is right now. Is Missouri State's been without Michael Osabonsu
the last three games.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
You know, he is.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
I would say he's probably the he's one. He's he's
probably the best all around player on that team, probably
does the most for them. But he's six four, two eighty, right,
he's so without him, I would say that they've probably
I don't have it in front of me, but I
would say they've probably played a little faster. Uh. You
know who's benefited from that in the stat column is
(16:21):
Keith Pallick twenty seven points against or Roberts twenty three
against Xavier.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
So he he is.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
You know, he's sort of picked up the slack scoring wise.
But you know, and again, I'm not as much of
a totals I don't really that totals like maybe I should,
because I feel like I come on here and give
out decent total opinions and then my plays lose rob
Maybe I should just become a totals guy. But you know,
Osabonsu without him on the floor, you got to think
that that maybe speeds Missouri State up a little bit. So, yeah,
(16:49):
i'd be I don't know if i'd want an under here.
I think i'd leaned toward the over. And even without him.
Now you know I talk about this with injuries. It's
been three games, Like, I don't think that you should
not be betting Missouri State because he's out at this point,
Like we know what he's what they are with him
out now, right Like you you have a three game sample.
(17:11):
You've seen that Palot has has picked up the slack
scoring wise, So I think Missouri State might be a
little undervalued here. I don't know if this is a
candidate for parlay leg for me, but we got time.
I'll uh, I'll wait see what else comes up.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
Yeah, really quick, just.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
To guarth the comp game, the comp opponent here for
Missouri State would and it was at home, would be
Arkansas State kind of in the same style of Linden
would And that Arkansas State game got to one seventy one.
Speaker 4 (17:45):
So it's a little bit dicey.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
It seems as if a couple of these they're they're
a little sporadic because obviously Tulsa is a quicker pace team,
but Xavier is a quicker pace team too, and that
game stayed under but the Arkansas State game as far
as where they stand as far as the team is concerned,
strength wise, schedule, strength wise, I think Arkansas State is
(18:09):
probably closer to linden Wood, and one seventy one in
that game is far and above what we're looking at
today at one forty four and a half. So I'd
be a little cautious. But again I'm not here to
talk anybody off, just to tell you what I think
about it.
Speaker 4 (18:24):
And as we talk at.
Speaker 5 (18:25):
Them, well clear across the board movement a couple of
minutes ago, some war and a half's out there, So Garth,
you have a shot to shop it and.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
Get yourself a far better number. Here there's a one
point gap between numbers across the board.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
See some folks in the chat want to talk early
tips ro I bet I will say this, actually, but
both of these schools were actually like, very very accommodating
to me, very very nice to me when I went
down did both of them last year. I picked up
the phone this morning called Binghamton. I said, hey, I've
still got eligibility left if you need a guy.
Speaker 1 (19:06):
I'm just kidding.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
I didn't do that, but I wonder if they would
have thrown me on the bench today because it looks
like they are going to be severely shorthanded against Army.
I think that is the reason for the move. And
you know, I kind of talked about, you know, bad teams.
Let you know, bad teams like Binghamton. I've I've talked
about not thinking that they were very good on this
(19:28):
show a couple of different times this year. And so
you know something I'll usually say, Rob is there anyone
on this roster that's worth five points to the number right?
And this is actually a scenario where I think there is.
So the guys that are likely out. You're looking at
Demetrius Lilly six' ten. Center he came over From. Lesal
(19:49):
he's probably Been binghamton's best player this. Year another one
that may be Out Jackson. Benini he's been out FOR
i think two games at this. Point has you, know
was awesome for Stone, hill didn't do much For binghamton last.
Year but the point is could be. More that's the
that's the other thing we're, learning, like could be. MORE
(20:11):
i Knew mulvey might not play LIKE i got wind
of him being potentially having an illness For. SIANNA i
didn't know that four three other guys weren't gonna. Play
so if you've got a couple of, guys especially if
it's illness related and there's two out by game, time
that could be four guys by. Gay you, know and
you talk about a game like, this you, Know binghamton.
Speaker 1 (20:32):
They're three and. Ten this isn't a league.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
Game like it's like you gotta worry that they show
up and they've got seven, six seven scholarship players, playing
which you, know And i've been critical Of army this,
year not really liking that that that this team coming
into this. Season of, Course Josh scoven's now At Davidson
Jalen rucker.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
GRADUATED i didn't think they had anything from a from
a talent.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
Standpoint but one THING i will say About army is
they play extremely hard And i'm impressed.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
With the way that they.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
PLAY i still think they lack, talent but then, again
a lot of the teams they, play like anyone they
play in The Patriot league is gonna lack.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
TALENT a lot of the teams that they've played on
their non.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
Conference schedule this year Fairly, dickinson you, Know manhattan was
without sid, no or Like i'm just going off of,
memory like they've played a lot of games either against
teams that are just not talented or where they've been
a big underdog where it's, like, yeah they'll go down
ten to fifteen, points but then they scrap and hang
on and cover the.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
NUMBER i have zero interest rob.
Speaker 2 (21:35):
In laying eleven and a half, points BUT i understand
why it's gotten to where it has BECAUSE i don't
want any part of a Shorthanded binghamton team either that
absolutely rolled By, mercyhurst who's arguably a worse team Than.
Army SO i Think i'm out, here BUT i want
to address this game because we'll probably talk about all of.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
Them anything for, You Binghamton.
Speaker 3 (21:55):
ARMY i think IF i were gonna Play, ADAM i
would just isolate The army team total here seventy five
and a. Half i'd probably play it Over binghamton's allows
the defensive team to begin with. Shorthanded on top of,
That army has come close to this or going over.
Speaker 4 (22:10):
This as bad as they are.
Speaker 3 (22:12):
Offensively about fifty percent of the time they find their
way to at least seventy. Three and now you're getting
a team that probably can't has little to no resistance
on the defensive, end So army shots likely fall here
a little bit better than they have thus far this.
Season as you, mentioned they play. HARD i would just
(22:34):
let the you, know the points spread, go the full
game total, go because.
Speaker 4 (22:38):
You don't know what you're going to get out Of.
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Binghamton they could throw up fifty seven or fifty eight
today and your full game total goes down the. Drain
But i'd isolate The army. Side it seems to side
with all the advantages. Here seventy five and a half
is not a difficult number to clear in this type
of a situation at, HOME i WOULD i, would you,
know if you're gonna, PLAY i would play that. Way
army team total over seventy five and a.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
Half, YEAH a couple guys in the CHAT i agree
with They they are chucking threes at this. Point and
what was interesting is through the first like ten games
of the, year they were one of the worst three
point shooting teams in the. Country BUT i have to
imagine some of that had to do with playing teams
Like Saint, Thomas Duke. Marist you, know they played a
(23:20):
string of games for the first few games where they
were against teams that could really defend that were superior
teams That ever since they dipped down to playing teams
like we use the term weight class on this show
like that are more even. Teams they have hit threes
at a ridiculous rate for, Them in my, OPINION i
think it jumped.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
THEM i think it jumped them one.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Hundred spots in three point shooting percentage percentage. Nationally so
they're going to take a lot of. Them If binghamton's
not going to defend it, all probably gonna make quite
a few of them. Too so that would be probably
the WAY i would attack this game would.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
Be you, know their distribution of points at is seventh
highest in the nation where threes are, concerned so they
score from the three point line more THAN i don't,
know three and fifty eight of their teams across the.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
Nation, Yeah so the.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
GAME i took a really atrocious beat Against army earlier this.
YEAR i Had manhattan basically step back three to send
it INTO. OT i Had MANHATTAN i think they were plus,
one SO i obviously just would have won if that
didn't go. In army did not attempt a free throw
in regulation not they didn't attempt a single free, Throw
so like that's another thing too when maybe speaks to
(24:33):
the variants a little. Bit they're not getting to the
free throw line at, all there is no they're also
not gonna score at the rim at, All like there's
no Cheap they're not gonna get any cheap. Points it's
gonna Be curry hitting threes or like some offense that
leads to a three point shot that they're gonna. MAKE i,
mean maybe they'll get like a garbage bucket here and
(24:54):
they're like a hustle. Play but it's like they're getting
very little at the rim and they're not and they
don't draw. Fulls so that's that is uh, yeah that's
that's ONE i probably won't be involved. With there is
another early, game probably the more intriguing of the noon tips,
Today rob Uh Doug gottlieb has decided he's going to
(25:14):
hang up the mic for a minute and focus on, coaching.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
And i'm Gonna i'm gonna go back to SOMETHING i
said earlier this.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
YEAR i truly believe That gottlieb underestimated the time commitment
was going to take to Coach division one college basketball
and he.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
Probably, thought, WELL i can do.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Both And i'm sure he was confident in his coaching,
abilities AND i gotta be, honest Like I'm i'm pretty
confident in his ability as a. COACH i just think
he got to season one in a rebuild with a
bad Green bay team and learned a lot from from last.
Season coming into this, Year i've seen massive, improvement not
(25:56):
only with Green bay with him as a, coach AND
i think now he probably was just, like you know, what,
LIKE i am pretty good at.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
This my team is a lot better than people.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
Think it's about to be conference, Play, LIKE i need
to just focus on my basketball, team not doing the radio.
Game they've been, undervalued underrated all. Season another fantastic result
for them last time. Out i'm not betting against Green
bay right, now especially not with A campbell team that can't.
Shoot because Green bay mostly plays. Zone they're gonna force
(26:29):
you to shoot to beat. Them SO i would lean
toward Green blay plus the points. Here i'm probably one
of the only ones out there that's a little bit
of A gottlieb. Guy i'm gonna call myself A Doug
brian power to be furious if he was still on the.
SHOW i don't think he can Stand. GOTTLIEB i like.
HIM i think he's. UNDERVALUED i think his team's. Undervalued
So Green blay plus the points would be the WAY
(26:51):
i would look.
Speaker 4 (26:51):
There, YEAH i don't know THAT i can.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
Argue, obviously the early market argues because they've come to
the come to the side Of campbell with a pretty
solid rush here two and a half all the way
to four and a. Half so you, KNOW i don't
know what the attraction To campbell is in this particular.
(27:16):
INSTANCE i do think that AND i did see that
press conference the other night after.
Speaker 4 (27:21):
The victory FOR.
Speaker 3 (27:22):
UWGB i think THAT i mentioned it, yesterday but when
he said that that he's just gonna devote his time
to coaching, now which you already, MENTIONED i think it
gives the team a lift as well at. Him you,
know the team probably feeds off of, that knowing that
he's going to be, around and they played better. Basketball
it's probably a tough little scheduling, spot Right campbell not
(27:46):
the you, know not the most likely trip road trip
for a team From Green. Bay twelve o'clock start early for.
THEM i believe They're central time. Zones it's like an
eleven am. Tip maybe first HALF i could see we'll
get in the jump on Green, bay but they showed
some fight the other, night AND i wouldn't doubt that
the second. Twenty if they're, down they come back and push. Back,
(28:09):
statistically a lot of the Things campbell doesn't do, well
Green bay can probably capitalize on vice. Versa it works both,
ways so WHEN i went through, it it kind of
came up as a somewhat of a push as far
as matchups are, concerned like this team can do this against,
them but that team can do that against. IT i
found the real advantage for either, side and in that,
(28:31):
case taking four and a half could.
Speaker 4 (28:34):
Be well worth. It you worry about the end of.
Speaker 3 (28:36):
Game of, course sometimes separations created and you have a
dog winner the entire way and you end up losing
by five or.
Speaker 4 (28:42):
Six on the free throw.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
Line but that, ASIDE i would think that Green bay
plus points would be more attractive to me than laying
it With.
Speaker 4 (28:50):
Campbell.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
YEAH i, mean there's also there's a large inflatable camel
very close to the court at this, arena so that's
one thing that you have to worry. About The other,
thing though probably more more, actual pertinent thing that that
you would have to worry.
Speaker 1 (29:04):
About With Green. BAY cj O'Hara barely played last. Game
he is.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
Twelve point nine points per. Game he's played in every
game this, year is one of the better scorers on this.
Team so goes back to like the general sort of
thought today being gotta worry about like if there was
ever a time where it was like a guy was
a little nicked up or a guy's not feeling, well
they're straight up just not gonna play in a game like.
Speaker 1 (29:30):
This this is not a conference.
Speaker 2 (29:31):
Game i'm sure it's a game both teams would love to,
have Especially Green, bay who's who probably feels like they you,
know they let one go Against Wright state, game they
had one a couple of weeks, ago and it's, like you,
KNOW i THINK i think For doug and For Green,
bay like every win is, important but like they're straight
up not going to like if a guy is nursing
(29:52):
any sort of, injuries not playing, Today like that's just
across the. Board any, game no one's gonna play, hurt
with the exception of Maybe Nova.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
Nova Seaton hall because it's conference. Game, Okay so it's
like you.
Speaker 2 (30:07):
Know that would Be my only concern is they get
they win OVER u See Santa? Barbara does do they show?
Up do guys like? That this is the other, Thing,
rob because they're on the. Road do guys even travel
right like sometimes LIKE i Think sianna left a couple
of those guys home.
Speaker 1 (30:21):
YESTERDAY i keep using that as an.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Example so like maybe the under here because you, Know
campbell's gonna have a tough time scoring on Green.
Speaker 1 (30:28):
Bay but if Green bay shows up without a couple
of their.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
Scorers the total in this one right, now what one
forty seven is awfully? High like it feels high right
like you could be you could still have a game
in the high, sixties low seventies and get under that.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
Total SO i THINK i might like the under in
that one.
Speaker 3 (30:45):
Too and real quick O'Hara's minutes were cut short last,
game only twenty minutes in that win Against Santa. Barbara
they found a way to get it. Done but when
you're talking about, guys as you Mentioned, adam that are.
Important he plays the size second highest percentage of minutes
on the, team a guy that they've run things. Through
(31:06):
so it'll be interesting sometimes if a guy you know mid,
game has to leave for injury. Purposes you can carry
him for a certain amount of, minutes but for a
full forty we'll. SEE i still Think wisconsin Green bay
gets a little bit of boost from that, win in
from their coach saying he's going to devote his time
solely to.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
Them, yeah it could only it could only be Green
bay on the side for me for. Sure all, right
we'll stay early for. Now this is a it's it's,
surprise well surprising to, ME i, suppose because like a
lot of WHEN i do my, numbers what tends to
show like the most value on a daily basis is
(31:48):
these huge thirty plus point. Spreads And i've NEVER i
never really play. Then But i'm kicking myself because IF
i IF i was just taking these points with like
after the market moves the game with these obnoxiously big
favorites this year or fading. Them So i'm Gonna i'm
(32:09):
gonna move into The Bellerman kentucky game right, now which
is a one o'clock. Game, yesterday there was a whole
bunch of them that Covered, Maryland Eastern, shore Covered jacksonville
covered right at the. End i'm just going off. Memory
there was a there was a whole. Bunch the only
one that didn't cover that showed value was LIKE i
Think New Jersey institute Of. Technology the point, is you've
(32:31):
got A kentucky team that just got their big time
win Over Saint john's over the weekend open thirty two
and a HALF i think up to like thirty. SIX
i Mean bellerman is not like totally incapable winning a
game by forties, tough, Right like there are there are
ways Where kentucky blows them out and wins by thirty
and doesn't come close to. Covering so my numbers Like,
(32:53):
bellerman this is a daily occurrence for me pretty.
Speaker 1 (32:56):
MUCH i don't really get to the window with.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
These i'm kind of kicking myself for not because i
feel Like i've left winners on the. Table so talk
to you a little bit about if you see the
same sort of thing with some of these bigger, spreads
and if you have any angle in De Bellerman.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
Kentucky, well the problem with not wanting to go to
the window with any conviction here is the start, time,
RIGHT i mean one o'clock two days Before. Christmas you
know how much do we care about being out? Here
But i'm going to say this from a fundamental aspect For,
kentucky this should be like a field day scoring, Wise
(33:32):
like this is like you, know we're not having six
periods or seven periods at school.
Speaker 4 (33:38):
Today we're just going to go. Outside we're going to
play games all day.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
Long because For, kentucky when you look at their, schedule
at them for their last five, Games, gonzaga top tier
talent in the N Ncaa, Basketball, Indiana Saint John's North
carolina with The bigs at the. Rim they've gone through
four really really good defensive basketball teams and now you Get,
(34:03):
bellerman which really can't play. Defense what's so to the
AND i speak to this all the time that offensive
guys want to pad their. STATS i can See kentucky
going out there and rattling off ninety five plus whatever
and not really caring as much on the defensive end
because to your, point they exerted all their energy beating
(34:24):
Indi enna And Saint john's in the last two and
Especially Saint john's because those games were a week. Apart
but The Saint john's game took a lot of, focus
a lot of.
Speaker 4 (34:30):
Energy to, ME i kind of agree with the total move.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
HERE i See kentucky just doing whatever they want offensively
and having fun doing, it AND i don't see them
caring as much on the defensive. End something in the
vicinity of you, know ninety nine to sixty five gets
the job done for you here rather. Easily and it
almost seems like this total probably will move a little
(34:56):
bit more in my, mind BECAUSE i Think kentucky's gonna
get theirs and they won't mind giving up a few
To bellerman for, Sure SO i think over is the
right play in that.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
GAME a couple of good points here from our folks
in the, chat which is which is a daily occurrence
on the.
Speaker 1 (35:11):
Show we have a very intelligent. Chat they're always making good.
Speaker 2 (35:13):
Points first, One garth points, out And garth is A kentucky,
native so he knows Is kentucky Basketball bellerman of course In.
LOUISVILLE i mean this IS i don't think there's a
hatred like there is With Kentucky, louisville But bellarman is In,
louisville and of, course like yet you would have to
think much bigger deal For bellerman In, kentucky, Right like
(35:33):
this is probably pretty exciting for the kids Of bellerman
to go get to play At Rock, like they're definitely
going to be up for this, game because that's just
cool when you, play you, know For, bellerman like that's
probably a highlight of your. Season get to go and
play against nationally Ran kentucky or like a really Good
kentucky team At Rupp. Arena, Second bobby makes a good.
Point you probably barely See jay And quinton's. Here you,
(35:56):
know he makes his Season kentucky debut over the, weekend
but he came off the. BENCH i think he only
played eighteen minutes in the. Game he was effective ten
point eight. Boards it was a very efficient eighteen minutes for.
Him but you would be surprised if he's out there
for more than like ten to fifteen minutes. Today just
absolutely no reason to you, know push him potentially get
(36:20):
him hurt in this, game especially when you have a
long layoff coming up and you open your conference season With.
BAMA i know it's a ways, away but that will
Be kentucky's next. Game so, AGAIN i JUST i, mean
If bellerman can execute at all through forty, minutes WHICH
i think they probably, CAN i think this is closer
to a thirty point final than a forty point. Final
(36:43):
and if you're getting thirty six and a, HALF i
feel like you have a reasonable chance to cash that.
Bet so not Sure i'll make it to the window.
Again that you, KNOW i haven't really played many of
these big thirty point, dogs But bellerman hung around With Nordre.
Dame that, was of, course Before burton was. Hurt back
in Early. November they hung around With Murray, state which
(37:07):
is a very it's a very Good Murray state team.
Speaker 1 (37:09):
And actually pretty impressive win for them last time.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
OUT i, know Chat nugas pretty banged up this, year
but that was a nice win for bellermant to be
what many thought it was going to be the So
coon champs this, year though injuries have made, that you,
know not, possible but still a nice win at.
Speaker 1 (37:25):
Home all, right let's go to. It there's a couple
more big spreads.
Speaker 2 (37:28):
Today but there is a couple of big Spreads rob
Where I'm i'm actually leaning toward the favorite a little bit.
Now this. One i'm not that this was not the
ONE i had in. Mind But doug brings up do
you expect to let down Off Saint? Oh, okay so
that WAS i misread that that was that was a
question that pertained to.
Speaker 1 (37:50):
The bellerman.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
Game i'm going to go to the favorite THAT i
think probably smashes today BECAUSE i wanted to make the segue,
like there's one big favorite THAT i think is is
probably in a good spot to just run a team,
out and that's THE Ucla.
Speaker 1 (38:05):
Bruins and this may actually.
Speaker 2 (38:07):
Be my parlay, leg BUT ucla probably one of their
better offensive showings last time out against Cal. Poly, now
you could, say, well it's Cal, Poly they're gonna, Run
they're gonna let you do that, offensively BUT i also
think it showed what maybe it Showed cronin a little
bit like how he's supposed to let THIS ucla team.
(38:28):
Play you, know you AND i have talked on this,
Show rob quite a bit about them really not getting
the Full Donovan dent, experience, right not the guy that
we thought or that that we saw for a couple of,
years basically just take over games At New. Mexico and
then last time, out really the last two times out
they put up ninety Against Arizona, state but last time
(38:52):
out one hundred and eight against Cal. Poly AND i
think Maybe cronin saw, like, hey like this is what
my offense is capable, of especially If i'm playing an inferior. Team,
ROB i think they're going to drop one hundred ON
uc riverside, today and because of, THAT i think they
probably cover this number which got that down AND i
can't really understand, Why SO i would lay it WITH ucla.
Speaker 1 (39:13):
HERE i have this.
Speaker 2 (39:14):
NUMBER i make this number close to, thirty and it's
rare THAT i ever show value on these like, huge huge,
favorites so strongly enjoyed The.
Speaker 4 (39:21):
Bruins for, me, yeah and probably for there's a couple
of reasons.
Speaker 3 (39:27):
Here let me just speak on the positives FOR, ucla
which you started, There ADAM. A last time we were, on
we talked About Tyler bilodeaux and his offensive prowess for this.
Team we were looking for somebody For Mick cronin to
allow somebody or somebodies to step up and help him.
Speaker 4 (39:44):
Offensively that guy was Sky.
Speaker 3 (39:46):
Clark last game showed that there's as much offensive game
to him as anybody on that. TEAM i Think dent
was still a facilitator in that. One had double digit
assists in that. Game and so it looks to like
they've got the scoring angle somewhat figured, out like their
offense now is becoming a little more, diverse and these
(40:08):
guys are bucket getters ON, ucla those three in, particular
so they've got that. Covered the other Thing i'll say
is in watching Sky clark in the postgame interview the other,
night after he dropped thirty on that, team he talked
about first half just not really paying attention or somewhat
not respecting Cal poly's ability to run and hit three.
(40:32):
Pointers and in the second, half you, Know cronin got
on them a little, bit and that second half started
in the blowout immediately started to. Occur the defense tightened,
up the offense kept, rolling which it's going to do
against Cal poly.
Speaker 4 (40:46):
Anyway and the fact That polly got to eighty. Seven
there's a lot of.
Speaker 3 (40:50):
Late points scored there in that game by Cal. Poly
BUT i think YOUR cla showed in that, brief you,
know ten to eleven minutes where they separate an extended.
MARGIN i think they showed. That on the defensive, side
this could still be.
Speaker 4 (41:06):
A Mic cronin type.
Speaker 3 (41:07):
TEAM i know he's moaned a little bit about their defensive,
ability but when you start putting together an offense that's
ascending and a defense that looks like they can take
on the personality of their head coach what he. Wants
that's what you need to cover these big. Numbers you
need to score and you need to. Defend AND ucla to,
me just in wrapping that up off of that last,
(41:30):
GAME i think you can see signs of. Both it's
still an in state SCHOOL Mc. CRONIN i don't think
he's a, guy a, coach, long long storied career to
let off the gas pedal with his. TEAM i think
he's going to push this team in this. Game so,
yeah it could be a disinterest, SPOT i get, it
BUT i don't Think cronin is gonna let.
Speaker 4 (41:52):
THEM i Think cronin wants to see the improvement continue WITH.
Ucla so you, Know.
Speaker 3 (41:58):
Hunter and somebody hunting and ninety eight points scored in
their last two, games looking pretty good.
Speaker 1 (42:03):
Offensively, YEAH i think this will BE i was.
Speaker 2 (42:08):
Trying we've we've updated the system here at Wager.
Speaker 1 (42:12):
Talk it's still a little bit.
Speaker 2 (42:13):
Confusing so NORMALLY i can kind of quickly like put
in plays on While i'm on the show IF i
really like, something Which i'm trying to do right now
And i'm not sure if it's working or not so,
anyway it looks like it looks like there's still twenty
three and a half twenty four out there for, this
and that is that is at worst.
Speaker 1 (42:36):
Gonna be my.
Speaker 2 (42:36):
Parlay LEG i may add it when we get off the,
show BUT i really think that they you, know they
didn't cover that Cal poly game despite scoring over one hundred.
Points the other thing you know About cronin is you
know he's never gonna like let you off the hook
and be, like, oh like we played. Good he's going
to come in and be, like, well we just don't
(42:57):
give a shit about defense, apparently right, though he just
scored one hundred, points so you, KNOW i expect he'll,
he'll you, know demand a little bit better defensive.
Speaker 1 (43:06):
Effort AND i just don't think Cal.
Speaker 2 (43:09):
POP i don't Think riverside can do much to a
sort of TAKE ucla out of what they want to.
Speaker 1 (43:15):
Do SO i was surprised this got sort of bet down.
Speaker 2 (43:18):
Again you always got to worry about someone, missing, illness
what have, You but like this is the scenario, where
like you you could probably take a player off THAT
ucla roster and it probably doesn't, matter, Right like they're
just they could Roll we've seen this a couple of
times in these types of spots where they show up
maybe a starter's. Out it happened to you the other
(43:40):
day WITH Nt state in a very similar, game and
they just they put they.
Speaker 1 (43:44):
Drop one, ten no, problem one by. Thirty kind of.
Speaker 2 (43:47):
Think that's what's going on. Here So i'll TAKE. Ucla
we'll call it minus. Twenty, well we'll call it minus
twenty four for the. Parland all, right it is ten forty, Five,
rob you have an idea of what you want to
use for the parlay at this, Point, YEAH.
Speaker 4 (44:03):
I have a really good idea of WHAT i want to.
Speaker 3 (44:05):
Use and again last night The Cal northridge side dropped a,
hunter got us another team total. Home So i'm just
going to go back to situational handicapping with a team.
Total and we've talked a little bit about coaches and weird, games,
starts time starts and, whatnot and will teams be. Prepared
(44:26):
i'm going to take the side THAT i Guarantee.
Speaker 4 (44:28):
Rick patino's team is.
Speaker 3 (44:30):
PREPARED i would almost Guarantee Rick patino is not a
guy who's going to that loss To kentucky is not
going to sit well With Rick. Patino christmas break or,
not it'll be a focused. Team in my, estimation their
team total for this, One, adam is eighty seven and a,
half AND i just don't know that there's any way
That Saint john's doesn't rack up eighty eight points in
(44:52):
this game.
Speaker 4 (44:53):
Through, offense through. Defense, listen they're.
Speaker 3 (44:56):
Not the absolute best offensive team in the, country but
they're way better than they were last. Year last year
when they couldn't make a, Shot i'd be a little
more scared a bit over eighty seven and a. Half
BUT i think they can Turn harvard. Over they can
score on the defensive, end they shoot it well, enough
and one more time that game the other, day just
(45:18):
the sixty six point. EFFORT i look for a huge
bounce back. Here the disparity in defensive class Between kentucky
And harvard is immense to begin, with what you have
for rim resistance as opposed To. Kentucky SO i Think
Saint john's is going to be my way to go, Here.
Adam it's it's a lot, situational it's a little bit
(45:39):
fundamental because obviously Said Saint john's has the better players
on the floor and they have the ability to. Score
i'm just trying to count up SO i get an
accurate number right here for you.
Speaker 4 (45:48):
Guys BUT i.
Speaker 3 (45:49):
See, five, six six instances already Where Saint john's has
exceeded eighty seven and a half point in situations a
couple of them somewhat like. This So i'm going to
play that. Way Saint john's team total over eighty seven
and a.
Speaker 2 (46:07):
HALF i love, that AND i want to answer coaches
question And i'll tie it into This Saint john's. Game he,
says why not just PLAY ucla team total overs eighty
six and a. Half And it's, like, well you, can
BUT i feel like you if you're doing, that you
don't benefit From cronin potentially ripping his team to play more, defense,
which as we, Know cronin is a defensive, guy like
(46:29):
he he. Liked you, know his teams are at their
best when when they're thriving on the defensive end of the.
Speaker 1 (46:34):
Floor so that's WHY i would lay it WITH.
Speaker 2 (46:36):
Ucla the REASON i want to bring that up is,
like for Whatever Saint, john's the numbers With Saint john's
have been so massively. Inflated LIKE i talked about this last,
week they WERE i went to The DePaul Saint john's
game down At carner, second they were laying like twenty
points should have never.
Speaker 1 (46:53):
Been laying that many didn't.
Speaker 2 (46:54):
Cover game before, that laying twenty seven Against iona didn't, cover, Right,
Like harbor still has some capable. Players you, Know hinton
has been one of the best scorers in THE ivy
since he showed up last. Year he's probably a player
that could easily play at a league that's higher than
THE Ivy. League now he doesn't have much help on this,
(47:16):
team you, know he still leads the team in scoring
sixteen point eight points per. Game, like that's the Thing
harvard coming into the. Year if this was if this
was an Early november, Game i'd be all Over harvard
plus the points BECAUSE i really thought that this was
like the Year Tommy amicker maybe got his team back
into the conversation INTO, ivy and who, knows maybe he.
Does THE ivy is, Down BUT i just don't trust
(47:38):
This harvard team at. All they've they've been far less
impressive THAN i thought they were going to. Be BUT
i still they still have enough scorers where twenty, seven
that's what we're looking at for a spread right. Now
in twenty seven is an outrageous. Number So, ROB i
agree with. You IF i was gonna find a way
to Play Saint, john's which is WHAT i would do
(47:58):
in this, game coming off The Kentucky law and coming
off not really playing their best ball against A, Paul
i'd have to find a way to play The. Johnnies
BUT i just have no interest in laying twenty seven,
points so that.
Speaker 1 (48:09):
One i'm with. YOU i like the team.
Speaker 2 (48:11):
Total, However UCLA i want to maybe benefit from their
defense a little, bit So i'd rather lay the points.
There just to answer that question and agree with you
on The, Johnnys.
Speaker 3 (48:21):
I'll throw something in real quick to the call to
coach forty forty or. Whoever our comment was just FROM
i don't The Saint john's play is a little. BIT i,
mean an extra handicapping angle in there is THAT i
just don't Think Rick patino's gonna let off the gas
in this. Game on the other side of the, Coin
Mick cronin it potentially could let off the gas a little.
(48:45):
Bit he's had a ninety point performance of one oh.
Eight if they get up by you, know let's just
say it's like seventy to forty seven with six minutes,
left MAYBE ucla doesn't get. THERE i Think Saint john's
will just keep going after this. Team It's patino's, nature
and not that it's Not Mick cronin's, either BUT i
just think they're in different situational spots in their games.
(49:06):
Today but for, me Definitely Saint john's team total Over Harvard.
Boy as far as as far as that the rim is,
concerned AND i, know you, know college player props is
not SOMETHING i ever look. At if they're even available at,
ALL i don't, know But edge of four should have
such a game underneath the advantage there is massive you
(49:27):
would expect him to probably record some type of nice
looking double.
Speaker 2 (49:31):
Double all, Right, ROB i am messing around with the
new back, end Which i'm. Listen i'm not a big
fan of, change So i'm going to complain about it
if you change something on, me like it's going to
be a default. COMPLAINT i just don't like when things get.
Updated when things, CHANGE i get used to. Something so
(49:54):
While i'm messing around with this for a, second can
you kick us off On there's there's still a pretty
big matchup we didn't talk, about So Central FLORIDA fau
looks Like fau is taking some money.
Speaker 1 (50:06):
HERE i GUESS i kind of agree with. THAT i
got very.
Speaker 2 (50:10):
Lucky On friday With fau back During Saint mary's to
cover fourteen and a. Half believe that WE i believe
we gave that out on the. SHOW i think it
was part of our. PARLAY a rare instance Where i've
gotten lucky this year in college. Basketball so the Owls
now go to in state Rival Central. Florida talk to
me about this, one you, see F. FAU i believe
(50:31):
this is an early tip as.
Speaker 3 (50:32):
Well, yeah and real, quick let me just expand on
your complaint BECAUSE i share the same sentiment for those
who don't know our process At, wager talk of in
putting our plays for clients or for sale on a
given day has been changed on. Us and as with
anything technical that's redone or have changed, over there's always
(50:57):
glitches in the. System and for those of us trying
at this time of, year where you know the sports
are all overlapping and games are coming fast and, furious
whether they be college, football college, BASKETBALL, nflnba it's you,
know you want to get these things out where a
lot of us are struggling with the new system to
figure out how this even. Works so that's What adam's
(51:18):
working on right now real. Quick AND i will say
this the fa Use Central florida game to, ME i
know That florida Has Florida, atlantic for what it's, worth
has decreased their overall adjusted tempo, somewhat but there's still
a very fast offensive. Team top seventy five in average possession.
(51:42):
Length they still go fast on the offensive. SIDE ucf
still goes fast on the offensive. Side they're forty third
in average possession. Length it's the defensive side where they've
kind of slowed other teams. Down both in the above
three forty in length of time that they make the
other side hold the ball before they can. Shoot are
(52:04):
they going to be able to do that today against
two truly fast paced teams against one.
Speaker 4 (52:09):
Another i'm not so.
Speaker 3 (52:10):
SURE i think that defensive average possession length increases as
far as quickness of. Shots, INCREDIBLY i see the push
toward the under in this. Game i'll just get the
current number. Four you guys here open one sixty four
and a. Half it's down to one sixty, two one sixty.
Speaker 4 (52:27):
Two and a. Half AND i just don't agree with
the line move.
Speaker 3 (52:30):
HERE i think a lot of that movement is based
on the analytics that we. See and Again i'm just
gonna point this out for those who Use Ken palm
or whatever analytics site you go, to there's quite a
few of them out there that are, very very. Good
but this adjusted average tempo number doesn't necessarily tell the whole.
(52:51):
Story it's WHY i like looking at possession length by
the offense possession length by the.
Speaker 4 (52:56):
DEFENSE a lot of times when you have a very
very team.
Speaker 3 (53:00):
That forces a team to take a long time to,
shoot it's because they're predicated on. Zone but here you're
just going to get up and down basketball by both,
offenses AND i don't know that the defenses are going
to be able to slow either one. Down it's a
Game i'll probably push back against the line move on
thinking that this game that the opening number was more
in line than what the move. Is and, AGAIN i
(53:21):
just see the line movement based on the analytics of
the whole, situation not necessarily the reality of the matchup
that's going to occur. Here so for, Me, adam it
would probably be a look at the FAU u see
f game over one sixty two and a, half and
again we talk about it all the. Time these lines
jump during our hour show here quite a. Bit there's
(53:43):
a lot of activity between ten and Eleven eastern time
with these, numbers And i'm seeing a couple of spots
here WHERE i mean one sixty one and a. Half
so it could be pushed even further down a little,
bit maybe given another fifteen to twenty minutes and then
go ahead. Play BUT i think this game's going over
one sixty.
Speaker 2 (54:02):
Two, YEAH i SO i did finally figure out WHAT
i was trying to. DO i think turbocaps might be,
easier easier to use than WHAT i just had to
do on the fly right. There but it looks like
my play finally went, Through So i'll recap that at the.
End as far as this game is, Concerned, yeah this
is In, orlando but it's In. Disney that's a good
(54:24):
point because of OBVIOUSLY ucf is In.
Speaker 1 (54:26):
Orlando BUT i think.
Speaker 2 (54:27):
This is what would be, qualify would qualify as a neutral,
court might. Not WHAT i jotted down this morning WAS fau.
Probably this is just my scratch, here just going through the.
GAMES i SAID ucf should probably get what they want.
Offensively that was my only real takeaway after this move
(54:48):
again interesting like numbers, wise nine and a half FOR
fau definitely showed value to, me but it wasn't gonna
be IF i THINK ucf is, gonna you, know potentially
have their way on the offensive, end that's that's not
necessarily a BET i want to.
Speaker 1 (55:02):
Make now it's down to, seven seven and.
Speaker 2 (55:05):
A half some, Places SO i guess it doesn't surprise
me THAT fau took money at nine and a, half
which seemed like a very big. NUMBER i feel Like
i'm almost inclined to push back at. IT i don't
know IF i, will but that's the WAY i would
look right, like if you're gonna now give me seven WITH,
ucf AND i think that they're gonna have you, know
(55:27):
they're they're gonna have chances to score and they should
be able to run their offense, here that's kind OF
i guess WHAT i have to look At Jose press
AS fau team total.
Speaker 1 (55:38):
Over, yeah like neutral court, game it's At.
Speaker 2 (55:42):
Disney i'm assuming it's at The milkhouse there wherever they
usually play that wide world of sports wherever they usually
play the.
Speaker 1 (55:48):
Tournament day Before.
Speaker 2 (55:51):
Christmas, YEAH i could see this one maybe having some
points or maybe Teams rob not going to you, know
in your shorts, Mode, deily that might help the over get.
Speaker 1 (56:02):
There.
Speaker 2 (56:04):
Yeah, interesting it's an interesting. MATCHUP i don't know If
i'll get to the window with that. GAME i think
we've talked about just about. Everything we've got like three minutes.
Left the only Thing i'll say About, okay so there's
two three games we haven't talked. About, Like i'm just
gonna rapid fire off. Thoughts marrimount got V day back
(56:24):
a couple of games. Ago he's like probably their, best
most impactful.
Speaker 1 (56:28):
Player.
Speaker 2 (56:30):
More they probably Destroy Morgan state now that that has
moved a little. Bit the only other Grambling Ohio, STATE
i have zero opinion. On i'll leave that one for.
You my number Liked, bakersfield but This idaho team has
intrigued me from the start of the, season SO i
don't know IF i want to Fade idaho even though
my number leads Toward. Bakersfield Those do you have anything
(56:51):
to add on those three real quick before we wrap
it up?
Speaker 3 (56:55):
IMMEDIATELY i had interest in just checking the number On
Ohio state team, total and a lot of the reason
why is the same As Saint. John's they're off a
very very tough loss To North carolina and figure that
they'll want to get back into the win column. Here
but the Number adam was ninety one and a half
on their team total a little too high for. ME
i would have hoped for something more Like i'm using
(57:16):
in The Saint john's in the, parlay something in that
range of eighty seven and a. Half didn't get, it
so didn't. Play BUT i do Think Ohio state in
all likelihood will do whatever they want in that particular.
Speaker 4 (57:28):
Instance loyal And merrymount no, real you, KNOW i. DON'T
i don't.
Speaker 3 (57:33):
Know we'll see how it goes now that they're whole.
Again but That's Stan heath coach. Team i've seen him
a couple of. Times i've just come away so thoroughly
unimpressed with that team. Offense it's like THEY i don't,
know it's almost like a traditional style team that doesn't
do a heck of a. Lot, well it's very boring,
pace it's a boring offense to. WATCH i don't. KNOW
(57:55):
i don't have a lot of good things to say
About loyal And. Marymount but we'll see again when the
roster is whole things can. Change so guys, say first
look was Towards Ohio state team.
Speaker 4 (58:05):
Total do with that which you?
Speaker 3 (58:06):
WANT i think it's too high for me and The
Morgan State loyal And marriormunt. GAME i THINK i have
to see a little bit more of them.
Speaker 1 (58:11):
With a complete.
Speaker 2 (58:12):
Roster all, Right SO i we are at the end
of the. Show we have wrapped the parley. UP i
did go WITH ucla minus twenty three and a half
as a three percent client. Play there's still twenty three
and a half out. There ivanduel has, one Hard rock has.
One there's What i'm just reading off the. Screen but
even if you have to get minus twenty, four that's,
(58:33):
fine And i'll for for our parlays, Sake i'll put
My i'll put twenty four in at minus one. Ten
So ucla gonna lay the twenty. Four that's my. Leg
hopefully we get through that one and Then rob brings
us home With Saint john's team total over eighty seven
and a. Half we've been on a nice little run
here ever since we went to the two team parlay
(58:54):
after yesterday's, win back up five point sixty six units
on the parlays on the, show so nice'll run on.
These hopefully we can get another one home today. Guys
we'll see you next. WEEK i hope everyone has a great.
Holiday no. Games if there was games On, christmas i'd be,
here but there's no, Games so got a couple of
days off to, regroup sort of, recalibrate and the games
(59:18):
rezoom On. Sunday our show will rezume On, monday so
we'll see you Guys monday for More Full Court. Press
have a great holiday, everyone and we'll see you guys.
Speaker 1 (59:27):
Soon
All right, welcome man.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
It is Tuesday, but well, more importantly, it's five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Get that out of the way. Five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
At wager Talk, every handicap will have a play up
for five bucks. Whether it's college basketball, college footballer's Bowl
games today, early NFL. There's other sports going on that
I don't really pay attention to, Like I think NFL.
ROB maybe has some NBA, So check that out. Five
dollars Tuesday, every handicapper's got something up for sale.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
For just five dollars.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
But more importantly, Rob, it is our final show of
I break the college basketball season into three seasons. I
think there's three separate seasons in a college basketball season,
and even more so true now that non conference I
think means a little bit less. For example, if you're
in a low major and even most mid major leagues,
(00:55):
you've got to win that tournament in March to get
to the NCAA Tournament. If you're the big guy the
Syracuses of the world, the middling teams in your power conference,
you've got unlimited opportunities to get big wins along the way.
So the way I look at it, Rob, and I'm
interested to see your take on this as well. I
look at it as three seasons. There's non conference, there's conference,
(01:19):
and then there's the postseason. That's your your conference tournament
and whatever postseason tournament you end up in the NCAA,
the NIT if they're gonna do some crown thing this year,
whatever that is. So for me, I didn't have a
great non conference but that ends today and I kind
of will clean the slate the next three four days.
(01:40):
I look at what went wrong, what went right, and
try to sort of retweak and redo my numbers to
come out of the of the break almost reset. So
I'm interested to get your take on that and if
you sort of tweak anything on this four day break
that we're going into.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
Yeah, I actually break it into four ship seasons atam
non conference conference conference tournaments, and then postseason tournaments, just
because I handicap conference tournaments and the postseason differently. You
have great familiarity in conference tournaments. You have teams that
already know they're going to the Big Dance, so you
(02:17):
know there's teams that are absolutely trying to climb the
ladder and get into.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
The Big dance.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
And then when you get into the postseason where you
have all these non conference criss crosses with only one
day to prepare, et cetera. It's a different handicap. So
strictly on handicapping theory and way that I go about things,
I break it into fours. But yeah, this is the
end of one of those right now.
Speaker 4 (02:42):
And you know when we.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
Return, well, yeah, actually do. When we do return from
Christmas break care, it will be the start of some
have started already, but it will be the clean start
of conference season.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
And that gets into a little bit of.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
I tell you the truth, conference season is almost two
seasons as well. January February are kind of different. January
some things are a little looser. February they're a little tighter.
So lots of angles here for college basketball handicapping.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
Yeah, Rob, there is crossover.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Of course, We're gonna come out of Christmas break and
there's gonna still be teams playing maybe their final non
conference game, maybe final two non conference games. Yet we've
already had some of the bigger conferences that have moved
toward more extensive league play play a couple of conference games,
and we've got a big East game which will be
our feature game tonight.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
So let's get into it. Villanova.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
We kind of talked about Villanova a couple of days
ago being a scrappy underdog option, and they went out
and won that game in overtime against Wisconsin with a
lot of the stuff we thought Villanova might be able
to do well, sort of coming to fruition in that game.
They're hitting the road again here and Kevin Willard a
(03:55):
little bit of a homecoming. Before he was at Maryland,
of course, he was at Seaton Hall, and he's going
to bring his new team back to Newark to take
on his old team, who has I would say, is
thriving at this point.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
We talked about that the other day too.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
Shaheen Holloway has a very Shaheen hollowayesque team. It looks
like a team that he can actually win with, team
that sells out on the defensive end and really sort
of buys in to what he wants to do. I
you know, watch this for so many years with him
in the back. When he's got a team that buys
in at the defensive end to play his style, they
(04:32):
could be They're almost always going to overachieve. And I
think it's safe to say Rob that Seaton Hall is
very much overachieving to this point in the year. So
Villanova's Seaton Hall very interesting one at the rock tonight
the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
What do you what do you see here?
Speaker 4 (04:49):
Yeah, it's interesting, you know.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
And the way you described it the other day, Adam
as a team that takes on the coach's personality, and
Kevin Willard in a press conference prior to this game,
alluded to that obviously these two guys know each other
really well. Shaheen Holloway was quoted as saying, he hopes
that the crowd gives Kevin Willard a standing ovation for
the twelve thirteen years he put.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
In at Seaton Hall his first time back. Like you said, both.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
Of these teams the other night, boy, they showed a
lot of discipline. For Let's just start with the Villanova side.
They blew a huge lead against Wisconsin and they were
pushed to the limits, and then in overtime they just
came out and destroyed Wisconsin in overtime. So credit to
Villanova for withstanding the late punch and coming back and
(05:39):
winning that game, holding their ground, so to speak. Seaton
Hall kind of the same thing. You watch that game
down the stretch and it was back and forth. You're
at Providence, they're taking the lead, Your taking lead, they're
taking lead. But in the end it was Seaton Hall
last minute, sixty seconds that pulled away. So credit to
both of these teams for going outside their home courts
(06:00):
and withstanding late punches from the home side. Actually Pfizer
form in Milwaukee for the Wisconsin game, but still Wisconsin
home crowd. For the most part. They're different in a
couple of ways here. Villanova's living off to three, Seaton
Hall lives off to two. But I think what's most
impressive about Seat and Hall, Adam, is that they're number
(06:22):
one in the country in block and steal percentage. Both
defend the rim and take the ball away. That's a
tough combination to excel at to be number one out
of all three hundred and sixty five teams that are
betable here in Division one four. Seaton Hall the backcourt
does the job with deflections and getting steals. In the
(06:42):
front court obviously with the blocks. So Villanova's in for
a tough test here. I don't know that they can
live off threes in this game, and I have to
be honest, I have no desire whatsoever. As good as
Villanova's been playing, I have no desire whatsoever to step
in front of seat in Hall right now. No matter
how they get it done, they seem to get it done.
(07:03):
And every time they've been asked to step up in
class because they've played a lot of teams they should
have been able to beat. But NC State's a tremendous offense,
hold them below their season average. Only give up seventy
four USC is an excellent offense. Go out West or
excuse me, play them on a neutral and go eighty
three eighty one two points. Shut down Kansas State's offense.
(07:25):
You've talked about that a couple of times. And of
course Providence, a really good offense under Kim Lysz, shut
them down. So I think Villanova's asset that three point
shot might be negated here tonight. And Seaton Hall just
has other ways to score, whether it be cheap points
or half court points.
Speaker 4 (07:43):
That you watch Bud Clark.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
Play this season, and he actually is the extension of
Holloway on this team. They shoot the free throws better
if it's a close game, lay, I think I like
Seaton Hall here minus two and a half.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
Yeah, that's the side I would go with as well.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
So something that we talked about with Leanova's last game
when they played Wisconsin was their guards sort of being
the key defensively to them having a chance to win
that game. That's one thing I've been most impressed with.
I've kind of criticized the Villanova roster at times coming
into the year.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
I felt like.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
I didn't think that he that Willard went out and
got the guys that were going to be like necessary
to really make a splash in the Big East. But
I'll backtrack a little bit for two reasons. One, I
don't see anyone else that's that's much better in the
Big East outside of like Yukon. And then Saint John's right,
like it's not a very good conference and too there
(08:40):
he's such an upgrade at the coaching position from what
Villanova had. And then you talk about like the scrappiness defensively,
the fact that their guards can defend the problem here
and why I'm gonna probably join you in in you know, well,
join you on Seaton Hall.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
I don't know if either of us will.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
Get to the window with it, but Bud Clark is
he's like the kind of guy that can beat good
guard defense. You know, he's another Mac guy that was
on a team where he was basically the only option
and they would just drape guys on him and it
just did not matter. And he's doing that for Seaton
Hall as well. So I think he's going to be
(09:17):
the key here for Seaton Hall. If he can kind
of generate offense and put the ball in the hoop,
then for me, Seaton Hall is the right side. But
I'm gonna proceed with caution because I was Villanova was
a team I would have been fine fading like maybe
the first three four weeks of the season, and I'm
coming around on the Wildcats a little bit. I think
I think Willard has got this team going in the
(09:38):
right direction. So Lean Seaton Hall. Not sure if I'll
get to the window with that one, but should be
a great game to finish off the night. Rob That
is a I think is as close to a standalone
game as we're going to get today. I think it's
the only game that starts at seven pm tonight.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
Yeah, lots of early stuff and I'll just I'm going
to just expand one more person an no note here
because i know you've talked about Duke Brannan a lot
on this show, and I just that matchup tonight is difficult.
The two Seaton Hall guys, Pain and Hinds are way
more active, you know, far better rim protectors.
Speaker 4 (10:15):
I just don't know what he's gonna be able to
do inside.
Speaker 3 (10:18):
So again, just the way we're looking at here, at
least I'm looking at it is that Villanova which point
distribution is very very heavy towards threes, love to shoot him.
I'm gonna have to make some here because I don't
know what they're gonna get on the interior unless it's
fast break stuff, and I don't think you're getting too
much fast break against Seaton Hall.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Yeah, I see some people in the chat saying take
the over, Like I understand it's it's probably a little
bit low from a from a numbers perspective, but man,
this does not the way this game plays out does
not feel like a game I'd be super comfortable taking
me over in. You're gonna need some some tough shot
making in my opinion, to get this one up and over.
Speaker 4 (10:59):
The tone.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
All right, Garth, let's go to This is an interesting game.
So Garth's thoughts on Lyndenwood, Missouri State under one forty
six and a half. Well, I will leave the total
portion to you, but I do have an opinion on
the side here, and so my first sort of thought
(11:23):
was that this line is kind of low from Missouri
State like that. That was my gut reaction was, you know,
only two and a half. I guess maybe that's because
linden would has been far better than most anticipated they
would be this season.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Now I think they might have. See. The thing is
the reason I haven't bet.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
Anything yet in any of these games is personnel is
going to be an issue for a lot of teams today.
This is basically every anyone that's still playing today is
you know, likely at the end of you know, three
games and ten days, they they you know, last night,
I was joking with Rob off Air Cianna. You know
the game we we got the parlay home and Sianna
(12:09):
was my parlay league and they showed up with with
four guys or they showed up without four players to
both bigs. They didn't have either of their bigs in
that game and somehow went out and covered. But like,
you know, to just like get to show up and
then learn that Riley Mouldy and Tasman Goodrick. We're not
gonna play. I mean that's the type of stuff you
might run into in just about every game today. Uh,
(12:32):
there was one for will for Lyndon Wood that could
be a factor. So I read Dontres Williams is questionable.
That would certainly hurt linden Wood. He is one of
their one of the top scorers on the team, like
thirteen thirteen point six points per game, so I would
absolutely want to know his status. But even if he
(12:52):
was in there, you know, there's two new teams in
Conference USA this year. Rob It's Missouri State and Delaware,
and kind of coming into the season, I had Missouri
State as the one that might overachieve a bit. So
my number loves Missouri State. I was like, I think
I'm out like seven and a half here it's only three.
(13:12):
But again, I just haven't played it yet because I'm
so hesitant to get involved on what is like this
like almost like a getaway day of sorts. But being
as they're the home team, I've got to leave Missouri
State's way. What do you think about that? And then
if you want to go into the total right there.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
Well, I would be scared to death to play under.
It's just simply based on possession numbers in this game.
And I know Missouri State is far more methodical. They're
probably beneath methodical. But the other side is so racehorse
paced the possession numbers in Lindenwood games. And you have
(13:50):
to throw a few of them in the garbage, right,
because a few of them are against teams that you
know there's no line on the game and they're easy wins. However,
even in instances where they've played teams, let's just say
in this class, they find their way to scoring points. Now,
question would be can they For me, Missouri State should
(14:15):
dictate most of the tempo, right because it's the home team,
and as fast as linden Would is, Missouri State may
be able to slow them down. Nothing frustrates a fast
paced team more than slowing it down. So if Missoo
State can get on the boards and kind of slow
things up a little bit, then that could be enough
to keep it slightly under. But I don't know that
(14:37):
there's enough wiggle room here, Adam. Honestly, you're only looking
at a total in the mid one forties, and for
what it's worth, as bad shooting as Missouri State has
been from beyond the Arc, as slow a pace as
they want to play, they still find their way to
the seventies and a lot of these games, and at
one forty four and a half, I think I'm looking
(14:57):
at one forty five's now as I start the screen
at that number, you can get to this point pretty easily.
So for me, I'd be afraid to play it under.
I'm not gonna talk Garth off of anything that he likes,
but it's a no play for me. And as fast
as Linden would plays, well, there's by you kind of
reiterating what I'm saying here, is that when you have
(15:19):
this number of possessions, and actually the faster you play,
the more fouling that occurs in these games generally speaking,
and you wind up on the line getting free points too.
So if the game's anywhere and you're close at the end,
you have to factor in for the final sixty.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
Seconds that could become a foul fast.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
Like I say, I can't play it under because I
would just be a nervous wreck the entire time.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
So something I should have probably pointed out, and this
also probably is is baked into the number, and it's
probably why my number is off of what the number
is right now. Is Missouri State's been without Michael Osabonsu
the last three games.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
You know, he is.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
I would say he's probably the he's one. He's he's
probably the best all around player on that team, probably
does the most for them. But he's six four, two eighty, right,
he's so without him, I would say that they've probably
I don't have it in front of me, but I
would say they've probably played a little faster. Uh. You
know who's benefited from that in the stat column is
(16:21):
Keith Pallick twenty seven points against or Roberts twenty three
against Xavier.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
So he he is.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
You know, he's sort of picked up the slack scoring wise.
But you know, and again, I'm not as much of
a totals I don't really that totals like maybe I should,
because I feel like I come on here and give
out decent total opinions and then my plays lose rob
Maybe I should just become a totals guy. But you know,
Osabonsu without him on the floor, you got to think
that that maybe speeds Missouri State up a little bit. So, yeah,
(16:49):
i'd be I don't know if i'd want an under here.
I think i'd leaned toward the over. And even without him.
Now you know I talk about this with injuries. It's
been three games, Like, I don't think that you should
not be betting Missouri State because he's out at this point,
Like we know what he's what they are with him
out now, right Like you you have a three game sample.
(17:11):
You've seen that Palot has has picked up the slack
scoring wise, So I think Missouri State might be a
little undervalued here. I don't know if this is a
candidate for parlay leg for me, but we got time.
I'll uh, I'll wait see what else comes up.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
Yeah, really quick, just.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
To guarth the comp game, the comp opponent here for
Missouri State would and it was at home, would be
Arkansas State kind of in the same style of Linden
would And that Arkansas State game got to one seventy one.
Speaker 4 (17:45):
So it's a little bit dicey.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
It seems as if a couple of these they're they're
a little sporadic because obviously Tulsa is a quicker pace team,
but Xavier is a quicker pace team too, and that
game stayed under but the Arkansas State game as far
as where they stand as far as the team is concerned,
strength wise, schedule, strength wise, I think Arkansas State is
(18:09):
probably closer to linden Wood, and one seventy one in
that game is far and above what we're looking at
today at one forty four and a half. So I'd
be a little cautious. But again I'm not here to
talk anybody off, just to tell you what I think
about it.
Speaker 4 (18:24):
And as we talk at.
Speaker 5 (18:25):
Them, well clear across the board movement a couple of
minutes ago, some war and a half's out there, So Garth,
you have a shot to shop it and.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
Get yourself a far better number. Here there's a one
point gap between numbers across the board.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
See some folks in the chat want to talk early
tips ro I bet I will say this, actually, but
both of these schools were actually like, very very accommodating
to me, very very nice to me when I went
down did both of them last year. I picked up
the phone this morning called Binghamton. I said, hey, I've
still got eligibility left if you need a guy.
Speaker 1 (19:06):
I'm just kidding.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
I didn't do that, but I wonder if they would
have thrown me on the bench today because it looks
like they are going to be severely shorthanded against Army.
I think that is the reason for the move. And
you know, I kind of talked about, you know, bad teams.
Let you know, bad teams like Binghamton. I've I've talked
about not thinking that they were very good on this
(19:28):
show a couple of different times this year. And so
you know something I'll usually say, Rob is there anyone
on this roster that's worth five points to the number right?
And this is actually a scenario where I think there is.
So the guys that are likely out. You're looking at
Demetrius Lilly six' ten. Center he came over From. Lesal
(19:49):
he's probably Been binghamton's best player this. Year another one
that may be Out Jackson. Benini he's been out FOR
i think two games at this. Point has you, know
was awesome for Stone, hill didn't do much For binghamton last.
Year but the point is could be. More that's the
that's the other thing we're, learning, like could be. MORE
(20:11):
i Knew mulvey might not play LIKE i got wind
of him being potentially having an illness For. SIANNA i
didn't know that four three other guys weren't gonna. Play
so if you've got a couple of, guys especially if
it's illness related and there's two out by game, time
that could be four guys by. Gay you, know and
you talk about a game like, this you, Know binghamton.
Speaker 1 (20:32):
They're three and. Ten this isn't a league.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
Game like it's like you gotta worry that they show
up and they've got seven, six seven scholarship players, playing
which you, know And i've been critical Of army this,
year not really liking that that that this team coming
into this. Season of, Course Josh scoven's now At Davidson
Jalen rucker.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
GRADUATED i didn't think they had anything from a from
a talent.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
Standpoint but one THING i will say About army is
they play extremely hard And i'm impressed.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
With the way that they.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
PLAY i still think they lack, talent but then, again
a lot of the teams they, play like anyone they
play in The Patriot league is gonna lack.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
TALENT a lot of the teams that they've played on
their non.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
Conference schedule this year Fairly, dickinson you, Know manhattan was
without sid, no or Like i'm just going off of,
memory like they've played a lot of games either against
teams that are just not talented or where they've been
a big underdog where it's, like, yeah they'll go down
ten to fifteen, points but then they scrap and hang
on and cover the.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
NUMBER i have zero interest rob.
Speaker 2 (21:35):
In laying eleven and a half, points BUT i understand
why it's gotten to where it has BECAUSE i don't
want any part of a Shorthanded binghamton team either that
absolutely rolled By, mercyhurst who's arguably a worse team Than.
Army SO i Think i'm out, here BUT i want
to address this game because we'll probably talk about all of.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
Them anything for, You Binghamton.
Speaker 3 (21:55):
ARMY i think IF i were gonna Play, ADAM i
would just isolate The army team total here seventy five
and a. Half i'd probably play it Over binghamton's allows
the defensive team to begin with. Shorthanded on top of,
That army has come close to this or going over.
Speaker 4 (22:10):
This as bad as they are.
Speaker 3 (22:12):
Offensively about fifty percent of the time they find their
way to at least seventy. Three and now you're getting
a team that probably can't has little to no resistance
on the defensive, end So army shots likely fall here
a little bit better than they have thus far this.
Season as you, mentioned they play. HARD i would just
(22:34):
let the you, know the points spread, go the full
game total, go because.
Speaker 4 (22:38):
You don't know what you're going to get out Of.
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Binghamton they could throw up fifty seven or fifty eight
today and your full game total goes down the. Drain
But i'd isolate The army. Side it seems to side
with all the advantages. Here seventy five and a half
is not a difficult number to clear in this type
of a situation at, HOME i WOULD i, would you,
know if you're gonna, PLAY i would play that. Way
army team total over seventy five and a.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
Half, YEAH a couple guys in the CHAT i agree
with They they are chucking threes at this. Point and
what was interesting is through the first like ten games
of the, year they were one of the worst three
point shooting teams in the. Country BUT i have to
imagine some of that had to do with playing teams
Like Saint, Thomas Duke. Marist you, know they played a
(23:20):
string of games for the first few games where they
were against teams that could really defend that were superior
teams That ever since they dipped down to playing teams
like we use the term weight class on this show
like that are more even. Teams they have hit threes
at a ridiculous rate for, Them in my, OPINION i
think it jumped.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
THEM i think it jumped them one.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Hundred spots in three point shooting percentage percentage. Nationally so
they're going to take a lot of. Them If binghamton's
not going to defend it, all probably gonna make quite
a few of them. Too so that would be probably
the WAY i would attack this game would.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
Be you, know their distribution of points at is seventh
highest in the nation where threes are, concerned so they
score from the three point line more THAN i don't,
know three and fifty eight of their teams across the.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
Nation, Yeah so the.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
GAME i took a really atrocious beat Against army earlier this.
YEAR i Had manhattan basically step back three to send
it INTO. OT i Had MANHATTAN i think they were plus,
one SO i obviously just would have won if that
didn't go. In army did not attempt a free throw
in regulation not they didn't attempt a single free, Throw
so like that's another thing too when maybe speaks to
(24:33):
the variants a little. Bit they're not getting to the
free throw line at, all there is no they're also
not gonna score at the rim at, All like there's
no Cheap they're not gonna get any cheap. Points it's
gonna Be curry hitting threes or like some offense that
leads to a three point shot that they're gonna. MAKE i,
mean maybe they'll get like a garbage bucket here and
(24:54):
they're like a hustle. Play but it's like they're getting
very little at the rim and they're not and they
don't draw. Fulls so that's that is uh, yeah that's
that's ONE i probably won't be involved. With there is
another early, game probably the more intriguing of the noon tips,
Today rob Uh Doug gottlieb has decided he's going to
(25:14):
hang up the mic for a minute and focus on, coaching.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
And i'm Gonna i'm gonna go back to SOMETHING i
said earlier this.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
YEAR i truly believe That gottlieb underestimated the time commitment
was going to take to Coach division one college basketball
and he.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
Probably, thought, WELL i can do.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Both And i'm sure he was confident in his coaching,
abilities AND i gotta be, honest Like I'm i'm pretty
confident in his ability as a. COACH i just think
he got to season one in a rebuild with a
bad Green bay team and learned a lot from from last.
Season coming into this, Year i've seen massive, improvement not
(25:56):
only with Green bay with him as a, coach AND
i think now he probably was just, like you know, what,
LIKE i am pretty good at.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
This my team is a lot better than people.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
Think it's about to be conference, Play, LIKE i need
to just focus on my basketball, team not doing the radio.
Game they've been, undervalued underrated all. Season another fantastic result
for them last time. Out i'm not betting against Green
bay right, now especially not with A campbell team that can't.
Shoot because Green bay mostly plays. Zone they're gonna force
(26:29):
you to shoot to beat. Them SO i would lean
toward Green blay plus the points. Here i'm probably one
of the only ones out there that's a little bit
of A gottlieb. Guy i'm gonna call myself A Doug
brian power to be furious if he was still on the.
SHOW i don't think he can Stand. GOTTLIEB i like.
HIM i think he's. UNDERVALUED i think his team's. Undervalued
So Green blay plus the points would be the WAY
(26:51):
i would look.
Speaker 4 (26:51):
There, YEAH i don't know THAT i can.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
Argue, obviously the early market argues because they've come to
the come to the side Of campbell with a pretty
solid rush here two and a half all the way
to four and a. Half so you, KNOW i don't
know what the attraction To campbell is in this particular.
(27:16):
INSTANCE i do think that AND i did see that
press conference the other night after.
Speaker 4 (27:21):
The victory FOR.
Speaker 3 (27:22):
UWGB i think THAT i mentioned it, yesterday but when
he said that that he's just gonna devote his time
to coaching, now which you already, MENTIONED i think it
gives the team a lift as well at. Him you,
know the team probably feeds off of, that knowing that
he's going to be, around and they played better. Basketball
it's probably a tough little scheduling, spot Right campbell not
(27:46):
the you, know not the most likely trip road trip
for a team From Green. Bay twelve o'clock start early for.
THEM i believe They're central time. Zones it's like an
eleven am. Tip maybe first HALF i could see we'll
get in the jump on Green, bay but they showed
some fight the other, night AND i wouldn't doubt that
the second. Twenty if they're, down they come back and push. Back,
(28:09):
statistically a lot of the Things campbell doesn't do, well
Green bay can probably capitalize on vice. Versa it works both,
ways so WHEN i went through, it it kind of
came up as a somewhat of a push as far
as matchups are, concerned like this team can do this against,
them but that team can do that against. IT i
found the real advantage for either, side and in that,
(28:31):
case taking four and a half could.
Speaker 4 (28:34):
Be well worth. It you worry about the end of.
Speaker 3 (28:36):
Game of, course sometimes separations created and you have a
dog winner the entire way and you end up losing
by five or.
Speaker 4 (28:42):
Six on the free throw.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
Line but that, ASIDE i would think that Green bay
plus points would be more attractive to me than laying
it With.
Speaker 4 (28:50):
Campbell.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
YEAH i, mean there's also there's a large inflatable camel
very close to the court at this, arena so that's
one thing that you have to worry. About The other,
thing though probably more more, actual pertinent thing that that
you would have to worry.
Speaker 1 (29:04):
About With Green. BAY cj O'Hara barely played last. Game
he is.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
Twelve point nine points per. Game he's played in every
game this, year is one of the better scorers on this.
Team so goes back to like the general sort of
thought today being gotta worry about like if there was
ever a time where it was like a guy was
a little nicked up or a guy's not feeling, well
they're straight up just not gonna play in a game like.
Speaker 1 (29:30):
This this is not a conference.
Speaker 2 (29:31):
Game i'm sure it's a game both teams would love to,
have Especially Green, bay who's who probably feels like they you,
know they let one go Against Wright state, game they
had one a couple of weeks, ago and it's, like you,
KNOW i THINK i think For doug and For Green,
bay like every win is, important but like they're straight
up not going to like if a guy is nursing
(29:52):
any sort of, injuries not playing, Today like that's just
across the. Board any, game no one's gonna play, hurt
with the exception of Maybe Nova.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
Nova Seaton hall because it's conference. Game, Okay so it's
like you.
Speaker 2 (30:07):
Know that would Be my only concern is they get
they win OVER u See Santa? Barbara does do they show?
Up do guys like? That this is the other, Thing,
rob because they're on the. Road do guys even travel
right like sometimes LIKE i Think sianna left a couple
of those guys home.
Speaker 1 (30:21):
YESTERDAY i keep using that as an.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Example so like maybe the under here because you, Know
campbell's gonna have a tough time scoring on Green.
Speaker 1 (30:28):
Bay but if Green bay shows up without a couple
of their.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
Scorers the total in this one right, now what one
forty seven is awfully? High like it feels high right
like you could be you could still have a game
in the high, sixties low seventies and get under that.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
Total SO i THINK i might like the under in
that one.
Speaker 3 (30:45):
Too and real quick O'Hara's minutes were cut short last,
game only twenty minutes in that win Against Santa. Barbara
they found a way to get it. Done but when
you're talking about, guys as you Mentioned, adam that are.
Important he plays the size second highest percentage of minutes
on the, team a guy that they've run things. Through
(31:06):
so it'll be interesting sometimes if a guy you know mid,
game has to leave for injury. Purposes you can carry
him for a certain amount of, minutes but for a
full forty we'll. SEE i still Think wisconsin Green bay
gets a little bit of boost from that, win in
from their coach saying he's going to devote his time
solely to.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
Them, yeah it could only it could only be Green
bay on the side for me for. Sure all, right
we'll stay early for. Now this is a it's it's,
surprise well surprising to, ME i, suppose because like a
lot of WHEN i do my, numbers what tends to
show like the most value on a daily basis is
(31:48):
these huge thirty plus point. Spreads And i've NEVER i
never really play. Then But i'm kicking myself because IF
i IF i was just taking these points with like
after the market moves the game with these obnoxiously big
favorites this year or fading. Them So i'm Gonna i'm
(32:09):
gonna move into The Bellerman kentucky game right, now which
is a one o'clock. Game, yesterday there was a whole
bunch of them that Covered, Maryland Eastern, shore Covered jacksonville
covered right at the. End i'm just going off. Memory
there was a there was a whole. Bunch the only
one that didn't cover that showed value was LIKE i
Think New Jersey institute Of. Technology the point, is you've
(32:31):
got A kentucky team that just got their big time
win Over Saint john's over the weekend open thirty two
and a HALF i think up to like thirty. SIX
i Mean bellerman is not like totally incapable winning a
game by forties, tough, Right like there are there are
ways Where kentucky blows them out and wins by thirty
and doesn't come close to. Covering so my numbers Like,
(32:53):
bellerman this is a daily occurrence for me pretty.
Speaker 1 (32:56):
MUCH i don't really get to the window with.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
These i'm kind of kicking myself for not because i
feel Like i've left winners on the. Table so talk
to you a little bit about if you see the
same sort of thing with some of these bigger, spreads
and if you have any angle in De Bellerman.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
Kentucky, well the problem with not wanting to go to
the window with any conviction here is the start, time,
RIGHT i mean one o'clock two days Before. Christmas you
know how much do we care about being out? Here
But i'm going to say this from a fundamental aspect For,
kentucky this should be like a field day scoring, Wise
(33:32):
like this is like you, know we're not having six
periods or seven periods at school.
Speaker 4 (33:38):
Today we're just going to go. Outside we're going to
play games all day.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
Long because For, kentucky when you look at their, schedule
at them for their last five, Games, gonzaga top tier
talent in the N Ncaa, Basketball, Indiana Saint John's North
carolina with The bigs at the. Rim they've gone through
four really really good defensive basketball teams and now you Get,
(34:03):
bellerman which really can't play. Defense what's so to the
AND i speak to this all the time that offensive
guys want to pad their. STATS i can See kentucky
going out there and rattling off ninety five plus whatever
and not really caring as much on the defensive end
because to your, point they exerted all their energy beating
(34:24):
Indi enna And Saint john's in the last two and
Especially Saint john's because those games were a week. Apart
but The Saint john's game took a lot of, focus
a lot of.
Speaker 4 (34:30):
Energy to, ME i kind of agree with the total move.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
HERE i See kentucky just doing whatever they want offensively
and having fun doing, it AND i don't see them
caring as much on the defensive. End something in the
vicinity of you, know ninety nine to sixty five gets
the job done for you here rather. Easily and it
almost seems like this total probably will move a little
(34:56):
bit more in my, mind BECAUSE i Think kentucky's gonna
get theirs and they won't mind giving up a few
To bellerman for, Sure SO i think over is the
right play in that.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
GAME a couple of good points here from our folks
in the, chat which is which is a daily occurrence
on the.
Speaker 1 (35:11):
Show we have a very intelligent. Chat they're always making good.
Speaker 2 (35:13):
Points first, One garth points, out And garth is A kentucky,
native so he knows Is kentucky Basketball bellerman of course In.
LOUISVILLE i mean this IS i don't think there's a
hatred like there is With Kentucky, louisville But bellarman is In,
louisville and of, course like yet you would have to
think much bigger deal For bellerman In, kentucky, Right like
(35:33):
this is probably pretty exciting for the kids Of bellerman
to go get to play At Rock, like they're definitely
going to be up for this, game because that's just
cool when you, play you, know For, bellerman like that's
probably a highlight of your. Season get to go and
play against nationally Ran kentucky or like a really Good
kentucky team At Rupp. Arena, Second bobby makes a good.
Point you probably barely See jay And quinton's. Here you,
(35:56):
know he makes his Season kentucky debut over the, weekend
but he came off the. BENCH i think he only
played eighteen minutes in the. Game he was effective ten
point eight. Boards it was a very efficient eighteen minutes for.
Him but you would be surprised if he's out there
for more than like ten to fifteen minutes. Today just
absolutely no reason to you, know push him potentially get
(36:20):
him hurt in this, game especially when you have a
long layoff coming up and you open your conference season With.
BAMA i know it's a ways, away but that will
Be kentucky's next. Game so, AGAIN i JUST i, mean
If bellerman can execute at all through forty, minutes WHICH
i think they probably, CAN i think this is closer
to a thirty point final than a forty point. Final
(36:43):
and if you're getting thirty six and a, HALF i
feel like you have a reasonable chance to cash that.
Bet so not Sure i'll make it to the window.
Again that you, KNOW i haven't really played many of
these big thirty point, dogs But bellerman hung around With Nordre.
Dame that, was of, course Before burton was. Hurt back
in Early. November they hung around With Murray, state which
(37:07):
is a very it's a very Good Murray state team.
Speaker 1 (37:09):
And actually pretty impressive win for them last time.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
OUT i, know Chat nugas pretty banged up this, year
but that was a nice win for bellermant to be
what many thought it was going to be the So
coon champs this, year though injuries have made, that you,
know not, possible but still a nice win at.
Speaker 1 (37:25):
Home all, right let's go to. It there's a couple
more big spreads.
Speaker 2 (37:28):
Today but there is a couple of big Spreads rob
Where I'm i'm actually leaning toward the favorite a little bit.
Now this. One i'm not that this was not the
ONE i had in. Mind But doug brings up do
you expect to let down Off Saint? Oh, okay so
that WAS i misread that that was that was a
question that pertained to.
Speaker 1 (37:50):
The bellerman.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
Game i'm going to go to the favorite THAT i
think probably smashes today BECAUSE i wanted to make the segue,
like there's one big favorite THAT i think is is
probably in a good spot to just run a team,
out and that's THE Ucla.
Speaker 1 (38:05):
Bruins and this may actually.
Speaker 2 (38:07):
Be my parlay, leg BUT ucla probably one of their
better offensive showings last time out against Cal. Poly, now
you could, say, well it's Cal, Poly they're gonna, Run
they're gonna let you do that, offensively BUT i also
think it showed what maybe it Showed cronin a little
bit like how he's supposed to let THIS ucla team.
(38:28):
Play you, know you AND i have talked on this,
Show rob quite a bit about them really not getting
the Full Donovan dent, experience, right not the guy that
we thought or that that we saw for a couple of,
years basically just take over games At New. Mexico and
then last time, out really the last two times out
they put up ninety Against Arizona, state but last time
(38:52):
out one hundred and eight against Cal. Poly AND i
think Maybe cronin saw, like, hey like this is what
my offense is capable, of especially If i'm playing an inferior. Team,
ROB i think they're going to drop one hundred ON
uc riverside, today and because of, THAT i think they
probably cover this number which got that down AND i
can't really understand, Why SO i would lay it WITH ucla.
Speaker 1 (39:13):
HERE i have this.
Speaker 2 (39:14):
NUMBER i make this number close to, thirty and it's
rare THAT i ever show value on these like, huge huge,
favorites so strongly enjoyed The.
Speaker 4 (39:21):
Bruins for, me, yeah and probably for there's a couple
of reasons.
Speaker 3 (39:27):
Here let me just speak on the positives FOR, ucla
which you started, There ADAM. A last time we were, on
we talked About Tyler bilodeaux and his offensive prowess for this.
Team we were looking for somebody For Mick cronin to
allow somebody or somebodies to step up and help him.
Speaker 4 (39:44):
Offensively that guy was Sky.
Speaker 3 (39:46):
Clark last game showed that there's as much offensive game
to him as anybody on that. TEAM i Think dent
was still a facilitator in that. One had double digit
assists in that. Game and so it looks to like
they've got the scoring angle somewhat figured, out like their
offense now is becoming a little more, diverse and these
(40:08):
guys are bucket getters ON, ucla those three in, particular
so they've got that. Covered the other Thing i'll say
is in watching Sky clark in the postgame interview the other,
night after he dropped thirty on that, team he talked
about first half just not really paying attention or somewhat
not respecting Cal poly's ability to run and hit three.
(40:32):
Pointers and in the second, half you, Know cronin got
on them a little, bit and that second half started
in the blowout immediately started to. Occur the defense tightened,
up the offense kept, rolling which it's going to do
against Cal poly.
Speaker 4 (40:46):
Anyway and the fact That polly got to eighty. Seven
there's a lot of.
Speaker 3 (40:50):
Late points scored there in that game by Cal. Poly
BUT i think YOUR cla showed in that, brief you,
know ten to eleven minutes where they separate an extended.
MARGIN i think they showed. That on the defensive, side
this could still be.
Speaker 4 (41:06):
A Mic cronin type.
Speaker 3 (41:07):
TEAM i know he's moaned a little bit about their defensive,
ability but when you start putting together an offense that's
ascending and a defense that looks like they can take
on the personality of their head coach what he. Wants
that's what you need to cover these big. Numbers you
need to score and you need to. Defend AND ucla to,
me just in wrapping that up off of that last,
(41:30):
GAME i think you can see signs of. Both it's
still an in state SCHOOL Mc. CRONIN i don't think
he's a, guy a, coach, long long storied career to
let off the gas pedal with his. TEAM i think
he's going to push this team in this. Game so,
yeah it could be a disinterest, SPOT i get, it
BUT i don't Think cronin is gonna let.
Speaker 4 (41:52):
THEM i Think cronin wants to see the improvement continue WITH.
Ucla so you, Know.
Speaker 3 (41:58):
Hunter and somebody hunting and ninety eight points scored in
their last two, games looking pretty good.
Speaker 1 (42:03):
Offensively, YEAH i think this will BE i was.
Speaker 2 (42:08):
Trying we've we've updated the system here at Wager.
Speaker 1 (42:12):
Talk it's still a little bit.
Speaker 2 (42:13):
Confusing so NORMALLY i can kind of quickly like put
in plays on While i'm on the show IF i
really like, something Which i'm trying to do right now
And i'm not sure if it's working or not so,
anyway it looks like it looks like there's still twenty
three and a half twenty four out there for, this
and that is that is at worst.
Speaker 1 (42:36):
Gonna be my.
Speaker 2 (42:36):
Parlay LEG i may add it when we get off the,
show BUT i really think that they you, know they
didn't cover that Cal poly game despite scoring over one hundred.
Points the other thing you know About cronin is you
know he's never gonna like let you off the hook
and be, like, oh like we played. Good he's going
to come in and be, like, well we just don't
(42:57):
give a shit about defense, apparently right, though he just
scored one hundred, points so you, KNOW i expect he'll,
he'll you, know demand a little bit better defensive.
Speaker 1 (43:06):
Effort AND i just don't think Cal.
Speaker 2 (43:09):
POP i don't Think riverside can do much to a
sort of TAKE ucla out of what they want to.
Speaker 1 (43:15):
Do SO i was surprised this got sort of bet down.
Speaker 2 (43:18):
Again you always got to worry about someone, missing, illness
what have, You but like this is the scenario, where
like you you could probably take a player off THAT
ucla roster and it probably doesn't, matter, Right like they're
just they could Roll we've seen this a couple of
times in these types of spots where they show up
maybe a starter's. Out it happened to you the other
(43:40):
day WITH Nt state in a very similar, game and
they just they put they.
Speaker 1 (43:44):
Drop one, ten no, problem one by. Thirty kind of.
Speaker 2 (43:47):
Think that's what's going on. Here So i'll TAKE. Ucla
we'll call it minus. Twenty, well we'll call it minus
twenty four for the. Parland all, right it is ten forty, Five,
rob you have an idea of what you want to
use for the parlay at this, Point, YEAH.
Speaker 4 (44:03):
I have a really good idea of WHAT i want to.
Speaker 3 (44:05):
Use and again last night The Cal northridge side dropped a,
hunter got us another team total. Home So i'm just
going to go back to situational handicapping with a team.
Total and we've talked a little bit about coaches and weird, games,
starts time starts and, whatnot and will teams be. Prepared
(44:26):
i'm going to take the side THAT i Guarantee.
Speaker 4 (44:28):
Rick patino's team is.
Speaker 3 (44:30):
PREPARED i would almost Guarantee Rick patino is not a
guy who's going to that loss To kentucky is not
going to sit well With Rick. Patino christmas break or,
not it'll be a focused. Team in my, estimation their
team total for this, One, adam is eighty seven and a,
half AND i just don't know that there's any way
That Saint john's doesn't rack up eighty eight points in
(44:52):
this game.
Speaker 4 (44:53):
Through, offense through. Defense, listen they're.
Speaker 3 (44:56):
Not the absolute best offensive team in the, country but
they're way better than they were last. Year last year
when they couldn't make a, Shot i'd be a little
more scared a bit over eighty seven and a. Half
BUT i think they can Turn harvard. Over they can
score on the defensive, end they shoot it well, enough
and one more time that game the other, day just
(45:18):
the sixty six point. EFFORT i look for a huge
bounce back. Here the disparity in defensive class Between kentucky
And harvard is immense to begin, with what you have
for rim resistance as opposed To. Kentucky SO i Think
Saint john's is going to be my way to go, Here.
Adam it's it's a lot, situational it's a little bit
(45:39):
fundamental because obviously Said Saint john's has the better players
on the floor and they have the ability to. Score
i'm just trying to count up SO i get an
accurate number right here for you.
Speaker 4 (45:48):
Guys BUT i.
Speaker 3 (45:49):
See, five, six six instances already Where Saint john's has
exceeded eighty seven and a half point in situations a
couple of them somewhat like. This So i'm going to
play that. Way Saint john's team total over eighty seven
and a.
Speaker 2 (46:07):
HALF i love, that AND i want to answer coaches
question And i'll tie it into This Saint john's. Game he,
says why not just PLAY ucla team total overs eighty
six and a. Half And it's, like, well you, can
BUT i feel like you if you're doing, that you
don't benefit From cronin potentially ripping his team to play more, defense,
which as we, Know cronin is a defensive, guy like
(46:29):
he he. Liked you, know his teams are at their
best when when they're thriving on the defensive end of the.
Speaker 1 (46:34):
Floor so that's WHY i would lay it WITH.
Speaker 2 (46:36):
Ucla the REASON i want to bring that up is,
like for Whatever Saint, john's the numbers With Saint john's
have been so massively. Inflated LIKE i talked about this last,
week they WERE i went to The DePaul Saint john's
game down At carner, second they were laying like twenty
points should have never.
Speaker 1 (46:53):
Been laying that many didn't.
Speaker 2 (46:54):
Cover game before, that laying twenty seven Against iona didn't, cover, Right,
Like harbor still has some capable. Players you, Know hinton
has been one of the best scorers in THE ivy
since he showed up last. Year he's probably a player
that could easily play at a league that's higher than
THE Ivy. League now he doesn't have much help on this,
(47:16):
team you, know he still leads the team in scoring
sixteen point eight points per. Game, like that's the Thing
harvard coming into the. Year if this was if this
was an Early november, Game i'd be all Over harvard
plus the points BECAUSE i really thought that this was
like the Year Tommy amicker maybe got his team back
into the conversation INTO, ivy and who, knows maybe he.
Does THE ivy is, Down BUT i just don't trust
(47:38):
This harvard team at. All they've they've been far less
impressive THAN i thought they were going to. Be BUT
i still they still have enough scorers where twenty, seven
that's what we're looking at for a spread right. Now
in twenty seven is an outrageous. Number So, ROB i
agree with. You IF i was gonna find a way
to Play Saint, john's which is WHAT i would do
(47:58):
in this, game coming off The Kentucky law and coming
off not really playing their best ball against A, Paul
i'd have to find a way to play The. Johnnies
BUT i just have no interest in laying twenty seven,
points so that.
Speaker 1 (48:09):
One i'm with. YOU i like the team.
Speaker 2 (48:11):
Total, However UCLA i want to maybe benefit from their
defense a little, bit So i'd rather lay the points.
There just to answer that question and agree with you
on The, Johnnys.
Speaker 3 (48:21):
I'll throw something in real quick to the call to
coach forty forty or. Whoever our comment was just FROM
i don't The Saint john's play is a little. BIT i,
mean an extra handicapping angle in there is THAT i
just don't Think Rick patino's gonna let off the gas
in this. Game on the other side of the, Coin
Mick cronin it potentially could let off the gas a little.
(48:45):
Bit he's had a ninety point performance of one oh.
Eight if they get up by you, know let's just
say it's like seventy to forty seven with six minutes,
left MAYBE ucla doesn't get. THERE i Think Saint john's
will just keep going after this. Team It's patino's, nature
and not that it's Not Mick cronin's, either BUT i
just think they're in different situational spots in their games.
(49:06):
Today but for, me Definitely Saint john's team total Over Harvard.
Boy as far as as far as that the rim is,
concerned AND i, know you, know college player props is
not SOMETHING i ever look. At if they're even available at,
ALL i don't, know But edge of four should have
such a game underneath the advantage there is massive you
(49:27):
would expect him to probably record some type of nice
looking double.
Speaker 2 (49:31):
Double all, Right, ROB i am messing around with the
new back, end Which i'm. Listen i'm not a big
fan of, change So i'm going to complain about it
if you change something on, me like it's going to
be a default. COMPLAINT i just don't like when things get.
Updated when things, CHANGE i get used to. Something so
(49:54):
While i'm messing around with this for a, second can
you kick us off On there's there's still a pretty
big matchup we didn't talk, about So Central FLORIDA fau
looks Like fau is taking some money.
Speaker 1 (50:06):
HERE i GUESS i kind of agree with. THAT i
got very.
Speaker 2 (50:10):
Lucky On friday With fau back During Saint mary's to
cover fourteen and a. Half believe that WE i believe
we gave that out on the. SHOW i think it
was part of our. PARLAY a rare instance Where i've
gotten lucky this year in college. Basketball so the Owls
now go to in state Rival Central. Florida talk to
me about this, one you, see F. FAU i believe
(50:31):
this is an early tip as.
Speaker 3 (50:32):
Well, yeah and real, quick let me just expand on
your complaint BECAUSE i share the same sentiment for those
who don't know our process At, wager talk of in
putting our plays for clients or for sale on a
given day has been changed on. Us and as with
anything technical that's redone or have changed, over there's always
(50:57):
glitches in the. System and for those of us trying
at this time of, year where you know the sports
are all overlapping and games are coming fast and, furious
whether they be college, football college, BASKETBALL, nflnba it's you,
know you want to get these things out where a
lot of us are struggling with the new system to
figure out how this even. Works so that's What adam's
(51:18):
working on right now real. Quick AND i will say
this the fa Use Central florida game to, ME i
know That florida Has Florida, atlantic for what it's, worth
has decreased their overall adjusted tempo, somewhat but there's still
a very fast offensive. Team top seventy five in average possession.
(51:42):
Length they still go fast on the offensive. SIDE ucf
still goes fast on the offensive. Side they're forty third
in average possession. Length it's the defensive side where they've
kind of slowed other teams. Down both in the above
three forty in length of time that they make the
other side hold the ball before they can. Shoot are
(52:04):
they going to be able to do that today against
two truly fast paced teams against one.
Speaker 4 (52:09):
Another i'm not so.
Speaker 3 (52:10):
SURE i think that defensive average possession length increases as
far as quickness of. Shots, INCREDIBLY i see the push
toward the under in this. Game i'll just get the
current number. Four you guys here open one sixty four
and a. Half it's down to one sixty, two one sixty.
Speaker 4 (52:27):
Two and a. Half AND i just don't agree with
the line move.
Speaker 3 (52:30):
HERE i think a lot of that movement is based
on the analytics that we. See and Again i'm just
gonna point this out for those who Use Ken palm
or whatever analytics site you go, to there's quite a
few of them out there that are, very very. Good
but this adjusted average tempo number doesn't necessarily tell the whole.
(52:51):
Story it's WHY i like looking at possession length by
the offense possession length by the.
Speaker 4 (52:56):
DEFENSE a lot of times when you have a very
very team.
Speaker 3 (53:00):
That forces a team to take a long time to,
shoot it's because they're predicated on. Zone but here you're
just going to get up and down basketball by both,
offenses AND i don't know that the defenses are going
to be able to slow either one. Down it's a
Game i'll probably push back against the line move on
thinking that this game that the opening number was more
in line than what the move. Is and, AGAIN i
(53:21):
just see the line movement based on the analytics of
the whole, situation not necessarily the reality of the matchup
that's going to occur. Here so for, Me, adam it
would probably be a look at the FAU u see
f game over one sixty two and a, half and
again we talk about it all the. Time these lines
jump during our hour show here quite a. Bit there's
(53:43):
a lot of activity between ten and Eleven eastern time
with these, numbers And i'm seeing a couple of spots
here WHERE i mean one sixty one and a. Half
so it could be pushed even further down a little,
bit maybe given another fifteen to twenty minutes and then
go ahead. Play BUT i think this game's going over
one sixty.
Speaker 2 (54:02):
Two, YEAH i SO i did finally figure out WHAT
i was trying to. DO i think turbocaps might be,
easier easier to use than WHAT i just had to
do on the fly right. There but it looks like
my play finally went, Through So i'll recap that at the.
End as far as this game is, Concerned, yeah this
is In, orlando but it's In. Disney that's a good
(54:24):
point because of OBVIOUSLY ucf is In.
Speaker 1 (54:26):
Orlando BUT i think.
Speaker 2 (54:27):
This is what would be, qualify would qualify as a neutral,
court might. Not WHAT i jotted down this morning WAS fau.
Probably this is just my scratch, here just going through the.
GAMES i SAID ucf should probably get what they want.
Offensively that was my only real takeaway after this move
(54:48):
again interesting like numbers, wise nine and a half FOR
fau definitely showed value to, me but it wasn't gonna
be IF i THINK ucf is, gonna you, know potentially
have their way on the offensive, end that's that's not
necessarily a BET i want to.
Speaker 1 (55:02):
Make now it's down to, seven seven and.
Speaker 2 (55:05):
A half some, Places SO i guess it doesn't surprise
me THAT fau took money at nine and a, half
which seemed like a very big. NUMBER i feel Like
i'm almost inclined to push back at. IT i don't
know IF i, will but that's the WAY i would
look right, like if you're gonna now give me seven WITH,
ucf AND i think that they're gonna have you, know
(55:27):
they're they're gonna have chances to score and they should
be able to run their offense, here that's kind OF
i guess WHAT i have to look At Jose press
AS fau team total.
Speaker 1 (55:38):
Over, yeah like neutral court, game it's At.
Speaker 2 (55:42):
Disney i'm assuming it's at The milkhouse there wherever they
usually play that wide world of sports wherever they usually
play the.
Speaker 1 (55:48):
Tournament day Before.
Speaker 2 (55:51):
Christmas, YEAH i could see this one maybe having some
points or maybe Teams rob not going to you, know
in your shorts, Mode, deily that might help the over get.
Speaker 1 (56:02):
There.
Speaker 2 (56:04):
Yeah, interesting it's an interesting. MATCHUP i don't know If
i'll get to the window with that. GAME i think
we've talked about just about. Everything we've got like three minutes.
Left the only Thing i'll say About, okay so there's
two three games we haven't talked. About, Like i'm just
gonna rapid fire off. Thoughts marrimount got V day back
(56:24):
a couple of games. Ago he's like probably their, best
most impactful.
Speaker 1 (56:28):
Player.
Speaker 2 (56:30):
More they probably Destroy Morgan state now that that has
moved a little. Bit the only other Grambling Ohio, STATE
i have zero opinion. On i'll leave that one for.
You my number Liked, bakersfield but This idaho team has
intrigued me from the start of the, season SO i
don't know IF i want to Fade idaho even though
my number leads Toward. Bakersfield Those do you have anything
(56:51):
to add on those three real quick before we wrap
it up?
Speaker 3 (56:55):
IMMEDIATELY i had interest in just checking the number On
Ohio state team, total and a lot of the reason
why is the same As Saint. John's they're off a
very very tough loss To North carolina and figure that
they'll want to get back into the win column. Here
but the Number adam was ninety one and a half
on their team total a little too high for. ME
i would have hoped for something more Like i'm using
(57:16):
in The Saint john's in the, parlay something in that
range of eighty seven and a. Half didn't get, it
so didn't. Play BUT i do Think Ohio state in
all likelihood will do whatever they want in that particular.
Speaker 4 (57:28):
Instance loyal And merrymount no, real you, KNOW i. DON'T
i don't.
Speaker 3 (57:33):
Know we'll see how it goes now that they're whole.
Again but That's Stan heath coach. Team i've seen him
a couple of. Times i've just come away so thoroughly
unimpressed with that team. Offense it's like THEY i don't,
know it's almost like a traditional style team that doesn't
do a heck of a. Lot, well it's very boring,
pace it's a boring offense to. WATCH i don't. KNOW
(57:55):
i don't have a lot of good things to say
About loyal And. Marymount but we'll see again when the
roster is whole things can. Change so guys, say first
look was Towards Ohio state team.
Speaker 4 (58:05):
Total do with that which you?
Speaker 3 (58:06):
WANT i think it's too high for me and The
Morgan State loyal And marriormunt. GAME i THINK i have
to see a little bit more of them.
Speaker 1 (58:11):
With a complete.
Speaker 2 (58:12):
Roster all, Right SO i we are at the end
of the. Show we have wrapped the parley. UP i
did go WITH ucla minus twenty three and a half
as a three percent client. Play there's still twenty three
and a half out. There ivanduel has, one Hard rock has.
One there's What i'm just reading off the. Screen but
even if you have to get minus twenty, four that's,
(58:33):
fine And i'll for for our parlays, Sake i'll put
My i'll put twenty four in at minus one. Ten
So ucla gonna lay the twenty. Four that's my. Leg
hopefully we get through that one and Then rob brings
us home With Saint john's team total over eighty seven
and a. Half we've been on a nice little run
here ever since we went to the two team parlay
(58:54):
after yesterday's, win back up five point sixty six units
on the parlays on the, show so nice'll run on.
These hopefully we can get another one home today. Guys
we'll see you next. WEEK i hope everyone has a great.
Holiday no. Games if there was games On, christmas i'd be,
here but there's no, Games so got a couple of
days off to, regroup sort of, recalibrate and the games
(59:18):
rezoom On. Sunday our show will rezume On, monday so
we'll see you Guys monday for More Full Court. Press
have a great holiday, everyone and we'll see you guys.
Speaker 1 (59:27):
Soon
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